Big 12 Win Totals Part 2: Kansas State, Texas Tech, Utah & MORE | Preseason Coaches Poll Reaction

Welcome back to the Cover 3 podcast with your host, Chip Patterson, Tom Fernelli, Danny Kennell, and Bob Elliott. It's your call for the best college football coverage from National Signing Day to the National Championship and everything in between. CBS Sports presents the Cover 3 podcast. And welcome back to the Cover 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Fernelli. That's Danny Kennell. That's Bud Elliott. I'm Chip Patterson. Come to you live at youtube.com/cover3 and everywhere you get your podcasts on a man, thanks for hanging out. Smash that subscribe. Smash that like and come and join us in the chat aka the Cover 3 tailgate where they are alleging irresponsibly that Danny had to get to his second or third house in order to get started on time. No, we hate Danny. We're hands off. This one was you were the first one here. I will, I will attest that you were the very first one here. Now this one was out of our hands. Thanks to the tailgate for hanging out as we're going as we're going just a few minutes late. Thank you, Danny. You were the first one in the house. First one in the building last to leave, right? That's right, Garrett. Wait a no wait a wait a show up. I will be me today on the show from my house, the only house that I own. Is it? I thought that you had police all of the states all across the country. They're coming. They're coming down the road. Yeah. Down the road down the road. Okay. As you know from the headline, we've got a lot of business to get to, big 12 win totals part two. That means we start with Kansas. We take it all the way to West Virginia. So with that in mind, we're not going to linger too much on legality. Whatever the latest, you know, bills, capital hills, things of that nature, but I couldn't help but be at least a little bit moved and at least a little bit triggered by a set of rankings. So a one through 25 out there with college football. It's kind of our job to be able to have a reaction here in time. Damn it. You're, you are moved to the point of a vertical video. That's right. Let's go. Let's go. Let's got you hot and bothered about about the coach's poll. Our first set of one through 25 rankings for the 2026 season. I just, I'm baffled a little bit. I mean, I understand where it comes from because like it's lazy and you get to the end of your poll and you're trying to find teams and you're like, I haven't put Clemson on here. They've typically been pretty good over the years, but like Clemson has been trending in the wrong direction for a few years now. It's like we, you can point to seven and six as an outlier, but it's kind of a continuation where they've lost at least four games in each of the last three seasons. They've lost at least three games in each of the last five seasons. And yeah, they won the ACC a couple of years ago because Miami screwed up and you looked at them out of conference like they got the doors blown off of them by everybody that they played outside of the ACC, like George crushed them by 31 that year. So I, I see Clemson at the bottom of the pool and I'm just like, okay, fine, but what I don't see, like there are no G6 teams in this poll in the top 25. In fact, the highest ranked G6 team, you have to go all the way down to I think 35th in the others receiving votes before you finally get to Boise State. Like you really need to throw Clemson in there that badly. You can't put a Boise state or a UNLV or somebody from the American that you like on your ballot. It's just, it's silly to me again. It's a preseason poll. So I'm not going to get super upset about it, but I just see that and it's, it's one of those things. Like people are always complaining that, you know, preseason polls, they, they're bad for the sport because they realign, you know, what everybody expects. And it's just a slidered up, slide it down mentality. And that's true. But the problem isn't the poll. The problem is the people in the poll who refuse to, you know, change their perspective on things once they're presented with new data. And I feel like Clemson has been presenting us with new data for a few years now. But a lot of people are still aren't realizing what's going on there. While I agree strongly with you, I think there's always, I've always, you know, for a long time, it's take shots at the SEC, but I'd say brand bias. I think there's just a brand bias. It's sort of a laziness. Like you said at the end, I think Penn State gets an incredible, you know, benefit of the doubt. There's excitement around the program, but both Clemson and Florida State were two teams that were favorites fell well short of expectations last year. But the flip side, I think there's like different mentalities. This is why it's such an inexact science, because I think some people say, I don't, what do I think they're going to be? You started trying to put in the schedule like, hey, but Penn State's got an easy schedule. Why wouldn't I put them in there? The one question I would have for you, the pushback, if you said, and this is where the hypothetical winners come in, but if you said Clemson or Boise State, who wins on a neutral field, would you still, even though it's been bad, wouldn't you glean towards Clemson? Yeah. Of course I would. Yeah. I mean, you top 25 poll is not, it's not the FPI. Right. It's not a, for what is it, what is it, like some people are trying to project the final standing. Some people are probably trying to say, I think these are the 25 best teams. Exactly. Like there's no, is there a rule on how they give these coaches to, or well, the SIDs for the coaches to vote? No, but you know what, here's an idea, how about we get rid of the coaches poll and we have the General Managers poll, because you know who are paying far more attention to the other teams, the GM's, because they're looking for players. Maybe we should let them vote in the poll instead of the coaches. I must have misremembered this. I know that the final coaches poll releases the individual ballots. I thought the preseason poll did too. Is that, does anybody else remember that? I don't think they do. I don't know. But the preseason, postseason, they definitely do. Postseason, you can go through and you can see where Ryan Day ranked Michigan at things of that nature. See, I saw this one as big time dabbo respectors out there. You know, that, that's just somebody who is, maybe it is the coach with somebody who's just getting to the end of their ballot and they're just like, well, you know, dabbo's got two rings and he just kind of gets a little bit of a benefit of the doubt that can be afforded to a point in the ballot and a point in the rankings that we know is the most fluid of any of this. Like, you're not locked into 23. If 23 is anything else, it is a voter saying, you're the first team I'm ready to kick out. Yeah, I have a hard time like complaining about much between that like 20 to 30 range. Honestly, like those teams, at least for me, are separated by like a fuel goal, max for my sometimes, yeah, exactly like, I think I'd probably have Louisville over Clemson. If I was going to pick a second, you know, ACC team, but like, third, SMU's fair. I think SMU's fair game, right? Yeah. I think they got one through seven, man, I would disagree with the order, but I think that's pretty much everybody's one through seven at this point. And then sort of like eight to 15 or 16, I think is pretty consistent with everybody, right? As far as like these are probably the next eight or nine teams. I mean, it is a little weird Indiana got the most first place votes, but is sixth overall. Oh, I think that tells you there's some coaches and probably from a certain conference that don't like all the trash that he's been talking, you know, that's how you do it. See, I would really like to see like who voted for who in the preseason polks. I want to see who's got like Indiana at 15. I mean, I do. I'd love to know. Six different teams getting first place votes is a, it's a fun perspective. I think it might have been even this season. I know it's something that I've done before, but the idea that there is no number one, but we got maybe six number twos. And that's, that's always fun. It means we're going to be holding our, our microscope that to each of these teams, Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia, Texas, Notre Dame, and Indiana. That was your top six and then Miami also in there at number seven. That was when Bud was mentioning sort of the top seven. And then to get into that eight through 15 land is the SEC team with flaws and or question marks, right? Which of these flawed and or question mark SEC teams is going to take the step into being elite. So those, it's a, it makes sense for the most part. I agree. It's hard to get too hot and bothered, but always interesting. Let's see. See you, Tiger alum one in the tailgate says, hell, I was shocked to see Clemson ranked and I'm a Clemson fan. So it be your own people. Now, even the, even CLEMSO and couldn't even, couldn't even wrap their minds around what they saw. So we will get, for those taking note, the AP top 25 will be released here in the next coming weeks. Maybe we'll get in a little bit of pole assassin proper when we get there. But that's not the business of the day. The business of the day is to turn our attention to the back half of the big 12 in alphabetical order. So coming up on the other side, oh, yeah. One note. I think this is the most teams that have ever received at least two first place votes. Just like a casual scrolling back here. Like the historical note. I knew that it was, we were probably, because that's not a parody. I don't, Tom, help me on words is that wouldn't be parody, right? Six teams that are all sharing first place votes, because it's still all the heavy weights. Yeah, but it's, it's, it's a form of parody in that we don't like every, if you think about it, like going into most seasons, we're not always right. But we all tend to have like a collective opinion of who the best two or three teams is. And we have that. This year, and in recent years, there's just far more question marks where you can put six or seven different teams at first place on your ballot. And nobody's going to look at you like you're an idiot. Yep. Maybe parody at the top among the groups that got 59 first place votes. Bam, I got six. Nobody else got got even one. Are you in on, I saw David Hale float this. that the 2010s was the worst decade for college football? - Whoa. - The idea being that it was just so consolidated that it just was that what we've come out of to reflect back on it. I don't know, it was an interesting thought. He wasn't beating the table. He was writing in his newsletter about a discussion he had at one of the media day stops. - I mean, I haven't done the research, but was it any less consolidated in the 2000s, 90s, 80s, 70s, 50s, 40s, 30s, 20s? - I think you had a little bit of a wider range beyond the Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma. The fact that those four teams were accounting for so much of the representation in the national title race. - I seem to remember dynasties. I remember Miami, Nebraska. These were all teams that dominated decades, Florida State, yeah. - Yeah. Fair, fair. I think that coming out of the hoarding of the four-star and the five-star talent is what sort of brought out some of that in terms of the way things are spread out at the very top. I only thought about that 'cause Bud brought up the Clemson, Alabama split when every single discussion was, who's number one, Clemson, Alabama, for like four or five years? So made for some great title games, but ultimately, I think I like where we're at now, where a lot of different fan bases are going in with a chance to be able to be, you know, like Ohio State or like Indiana, just winding up as the best team at the right time to win the title. All right, coming up on the other side, we begin with the Kansas J-Hawks and roll through the rest of our big 12 win totals and more. - Next. (dramatic music) - Back here on the Cover 3 podcast, the best time of year rolls along, and I say, "Gentlemen, you all ready to count 'em up?" - Let's do this thing. - As much as I think that's the. - Here is a safe play, like, I can't even. - Count 'em up! (dramatic music) - I don't know! How many kids you're gonna win this fall? - I can't fad on any wins. - How many kids you're gonna win this fall? - I just can't. I don't see it. I'm not on there. - It's not the schedule I'm looking at. Unless there's another schedule somewhere. - Are we echo-free? Outside of the echo, that was actually in the effects there. - I don't know, I'm scared. - I know, I was so nervous to even hit the button. Audio issues on Wednesday, we powered through, we overcome the adversity on the field. Is that what we're gonna see from the Cancer J-Hawks? Two straight seasons of kind of. - Falling short of expectations, heading into year six of the Lance Li-Pold era. You might have heard of, but Elliot, make a comment during part one of, maybe you're a bigger fan of Cole Ballard than I am. I don't know if you showed your hand on that one, because here's what my notepad says. Maybe Cole Ballard? Maybe Isaiah Marshall? Maybe Rice Transfer Chase Jenkins? I don't know. I do know that between Dylan Edwards and Yassine Willis, I think they'll be able to run the football. We welcome back, Andy Codelnicki. They are the other side of the London game, Tom. - Hello, Gaff Mack. - There we go. They also have to go to Salt Lake City in Morgantown? London Salt Lake City in Morgantown? I love. I'm a big Lance Li-Pold fan, and I want to throw my weight behind him. I'm not going to tip my hand just yet. Danny, how are we picking apart the J-Hawks from a win-total's perspective? - I, as well, am a big Lance Li-Pold fan. I think he did a phenomenal job giving some stability to this program. The J-Land Daniels Arrow got off to a really strong start, then it kind of fizzled due to injuries, a little more inconsistent play. They had some unique scheduling, going on with the redone stadium, where they're playing at Arrowhead. I mean, it's just been a lot. I want to go over, but I'm not going to. And a lot of this was kind of balancing out 'cause there's some other teams that I like a little bit more. I don't say this with a ton of confidence. I wouldn't rush to the window to bet it, but I just, I have a hard time coming up with six wins with the questions at quarterback, with the schedule, some tough road games, and the fact that I'm bullish on some of these other teams they're facing. I want to go under ever so slightly. - That under, by the way, I believe the Draft King Sportsbook will pay out plus 128. So moving against the juice, but so even if you're uncomfortable with it, you could at least get some payout for it. - Yeah, I'm under here as well. They should probably start two and four, right? Beat Long Island, lose Missouri, lose Arizona State, get a by-week beat middle, probably lose at Utah and at Kansas State, and then your chance for wins comes, I think more in the second half of this schedule. Baylor comes to town at TCU. That's like you're certainly a dog there. You're probably a coin flip to Baylor at home, maybe either way. You see out at home, like that's one you could get. I think at West Virginia is probably tougher than people realize BYU is a team I think, like I can count on to out physical then. I certainly counted as a win for BYU, even though I took BYU's under-ever so slightly. And then I add on the state of team that I think is as far improved. So I think, you know, four and eight, probably more likely than six and four on my number. So I'm solidly under here. - Yeah, I'm also pretty solidly under here. - Yuck, oh no. - I mean, breaking that schedule down further, like part of the problem that this team, I think, faces is, you know, Kansas State, TCU, West Virginia and Oklahoma State are games where Kansas feels like they're on an equal level. Those should be coin flip games. But getting all of those on the road is, you know, makes it more difficult. Like the good news is you avoid Texas Tech, but you get both BYU and Utah on one of those on the road, one of those is at home. So you might lose one of your home games if BYU is as good as it has been. Just looking at the roster, like we mentioned it, we don't really know who the quarterback is yet. And there's not a lot of options on that depth chart I look at and say, I'm super confident in this team if he gets the job. They got Dylan Edwards out of the portal. He was at Kansas State kind of last year, but I mean, he's got talent, but it's just his playing career to this point has been, I don't know, you know, like last year was just strange. They got, they brought in a huge portal class. They've pretty much overhauled their offensive line. I think their offensive line will be better this year than it was last year. But I don't know that it's going to be good. Like I look at their portal class and I don't see really outside of Edwards anybody that has a chance to be like a true difference maker. Like I just see a lot of guys who are going to maybe didn't play elsewhere from other power four programs are moving on to get a shot somewhere else. And you know, don't have time to experience. And the guys, they're mostly like depth pieces. I don't see somebody that I look at and say, oh, wow, that guy's going to change things for them. Yeah, I'm there to, you know, that don't like it to not like going one, two, three, four. I, we've got chances to make it a lock, but that is certainly, and that'll be coming up later in August. But I just, I cannot get there where Danny, I like the way you put it. There are some other teams in that five win, six win, seven win competition. That if you're a little bit more enthused by the development, whether it be the portal class or the quarterback situation, 'cause we should be celebrating the return of Andy Kodelnicki, right? Yeah. But I'm not, I'm not ready to do it to the point for them to overcome the schedule issues. And then some of the positivity that I've got for other teams in that area. Any other final words on Kansas thoughts? I would rather play the under four and a half at plus 300 than take the 128 on five and seven. Don't disagree. I mean, plus 128, it's kind of nice. I think four and eight's more likely than six and six. That's, hmm. I'm, I'm as confident as you guys. Yeah, I mean, they'll figure out a way, right? Kodelnicki's back. Both those quarterbacks can run. They're probably gonna be heavy, QB run, you know, can they, like, I can see the path. I don't think they're gonna like stay on that path, but I, I can certainly see the path. Mm. Can I move up to their sunflower state rivals? The Kansas state wild cats concline coming home to take over the program. Avery Johnson back much has been shown there. The hype is well deserved. It will be the primary storyline, but there are a lot of transfers filling out some key position groups along the lines of scrimmage. That's not saying that could go poorly. It's just an effort that needs to be done in terms of our assumption. Schedule just breaks really, really well for year one of a new and unproven coaching regime. There is no Texas tech. There is no BYU. There is no Utah. And but I want you to get first crack at this because I like the way that you presented this in conversation. Where do we like the team or do we like the schedule? So now combine those two for me. We got Draft King Sportsbook hanging an eight and a half that over plus one 15 under minus one 36. How do you see it all playing out with a favorable schedule, but a roster maybe with some questions that need answers? Yeah, I mean, the schedule's been out for eight months now, right? And so I don't think you're stealing on the number here. Just because you've identified the schedule is poor. They have a couple teams here that I went under on their schedule. So like logically, I have to go over here, But it's not something I'm going to say. like I'm not rushing to bet over eight and a half at plus one-fifteen, right? Like I don't love this team having to go nine and three to cash from the, that's barely plus money. But they should start for now. I don't think Washington State's very good. I think Tulane takes a large step back, you know, at Cincinnati, Cincinnati's got a lot of new pieces obviously. I do think Colin Klein will do much better with Rick James, I mean, Avery Johnson, excuse me. And then, you know, the by-week, you know, like comes, not not too early, but it's certainly earlier than you finish with what eight conference games. Like the road trips I think are pretty manageable. Like at Arizona State is difficult at TCU is not easy. But like at Colorado, we'll see what they are. You know, like at the game, you could lose, but you're probably a small favorite in that one. And then at Iowa State, like I think we made our thoughts clear on Iowa State the other day, or at least I did. So I'm slightly over here. I don't think they're in like a Michigan UCLA coach-up grade situation, you know. But it might be sort of that like Auburn level, you know? Like I do think there's probably meaningful upgrade to the coaching staff here over. And climate did a great job for a long time, but it looked like pretty clear last year he was burnt out. So I'm, I'm slightly over. I'm the same, for a lot of the same reasons, you know, talk to Colin Klein. A few months ago, when him and the staff were living in a house, they called it the frat house, building back some camaraderie. I do think that has to do with kind of the freshness. This is a, you know, staff that's coming in with an opportunity. They're excited for it, you know, and Chris Klein, and I thought was a great coach, but I totally agree, you know, a little bit burned out towards the end, you know, gives his blessing to Colin Klein said, hey, I think this is the job should take. Come back home. Colin Klein. I think should work out perfectly with his system. What he wants to do with Avery Johnson feels like a perfect fit schedule. Lines up. I'm on over as well. I mean, do you, do you think I could quit Avery Johnson? No, do you think I can quit Avery Johnson now paired with Colin Klein after watching what Colin was able to do for Marcel Reed and saying, Lord, can you do that for me and my boy Avery? I mean, I'm super high on this team. I'm stupidly high on Kansas date going into the season. I am prepared to look a damn fool. I would sit here and tell you that I think there's a realistic shot, a very realistic shot that Kansas State is in Dallas playing Texas Tech for a big 12 championship at the end of the year because again, we talked about that schedule. You don't have to play BYU. You don't have to play Utah. You don't have to play Texas Tech of those road games. Are we super confident that any of those teams that are, they're playing on the road are going to win more than seven games this year? Like those could all be very winnable games. This is a squad that I think could get off to a 6 and 0 start before they go to Arizona State for that first real road. Don't since now he's a road trip. But before they get to that back half of the schedule, like, I don't love the defense. I do think that they brought in some new guys on that side of the ball. That could be upgrades, but you pretty much overhauled your entire defensive line. You're too deep. There's all portal guys except for Jordan Allen and maybe one or two of them hit and become real difference makers. That's all you need. You're linebackers. You're secondary. You've gotten a lot of new looks there. There's a lot of question marks about this team going in, but Colin Klein and Avery Johnston and an easy schedule, give me that over eight and a half. We'll probably be bringing this back up on the lock spot. Let's play in a schedule play. When has it ever gone wrong before ever? Never. Never. For your college football win totals. I'm on the over two boys. I do think I'm not skying high over, but I think this is a seven and five floor in a 12 and 0 ceiling. I don't think there is one individual game where they are outclassed on the 12 game regular season schedule. I also know about big 12 football and think they could lose to Washington State, you know, or they like, there's a lot of games you can say, what was that? I mean, they lost to army last year. Another, you know, total head scratcher game. They are not so good in the 138 team view of college football that I think they will go 12 and 0, but to take each of those individual games one by one, they are not outclassed in a single one. Tons and tons of coin flips. And if they, because of coaching and quarterback, we're able to end up on the right side of most of them, then yes, nine and three is something I'm very comfortable getting out with. But that's a famous last words never gone wrong before, but we'll be keeping our, I guess, on the defense. Does everyone agree with Tom that that's maybe the one question that you have? Yeah. Like past rush here is going to be an issue. Indiana took both their guys, right? So like they went and got wind of Gregory, who was a good player for Oklahoma State. I think they, like they should be okay, but I don't know if it's a strength, right? They also don't play like that many good quarterbacks. Not only is it not playing the best team, but they play a couple like, I mean, well, they play mastermaker. We're about to get into Oklahoma State. Yeah, all right. Let's go to Oklahoma State. We'll bring like the other quarterbacks will come up on this episode for the most part. How many kids are going to win this fall? Getting our attention to still water, Oklahoma State year one of the Eric Morris era. The Kurt Signetti comps are getting a little a lot of control. All right. I understand he's showing up with North Texas is like 1400 yard rusher and their 1200 yard receiver and your future NFL quarterback. But 16 and O National champion within year two, but I think Kurt might be a one of one. That doesn't mean that I am all off the idea that Oklahoma State might have as we said earlier in the off season, the best year over year win total improvement. Because this is a team that as we're looking at it has a win total of six and a half wins at trafficking sports book over plus 120 under minus 140 DK House is is does the quarter back. Can the quarterback play all 22 positions because everybody loves the quarterback. So what's our what's our read on on the pokes as they prepare for a year one of the Eric Morris era? I do think the system can be incredibly effective. I like to make her a lot by the way, he's got Caleb Hawkins coming to see the Yahoo sports fantasy rankings. I think they have him as the third or fourth best like point producer in the country. I think this place has been so down and out. I think infusing fresh life in it is going to do wonders. You know what? I just I have to balance it out somewhere. I can't give everybody overs. I would love to see him be the Indiana story. I think they're going to be really good. I'm going to say there's six and six. I'll go under by a smidge. Not a lot of confidence. Again, I don't know if I'd rush to the window with it because I do like the plan players they've got, but I'm going to go under. I'm over. I mean, it's not like with a super duper high level of confidence, but to me, while there are so many questions on this team because literally the entire roster is brand new and a lot of them are making the jump up from the American to the big 12, which might not be a huge jump overall, but it's still a pretty significant jump. Like I feel that this is going to be a team who is just going to try to outscore you. That is really their path to success and there are going to be a lot of teams on that schedule that I feel like, hey, you know what? We can win those track meets against this team. The only two defenses I see on there that I feel like could truly smother them are Oregon and Texas Tech. Every other game, I think, is up for grabs. So I'm not sitting here thinking that Oklahoma State is going to be like you said, chip, they're not going to be the Indiana team going 10 and 2 beating everybody, but those two and being in the playoff conversation, but they are going to win about half of their games. They are probably going to get to a bowl. So I see the over six and a half and I get the juice plus 120 again, it's not very much over six and a half in my projections, but it's the better of the two options available to me right now. I'm over as well. I think, but for the coaching connection, there's no chance you get a quarterback of this caliber at Oklahoma State in the portal market, right? As far as somebody who's already known commodity, he would have been a guy who would have been at Miami and making $8 million. Oh, he probably took less money to stick with Eric Morris. Well, I don't know about that, but I'm just saying I don't think you're not going to consider it. Like, if you're already a known commodity of that level, like if Pete Thammell's like, hey, you could go number one overall type thing, like you're not going to a coma state. So I do think there's a real chance he's the best quarterback in this league and maybe by a lot. So that's a pretty big edge for them, I think. I think they'll score a lot of points to Tom's point. Pass rush. I have some concerns about for sure, like, I don't, they took James Williams from Florida state. Like, maybe that works. Maybe it didn't or maybe it won't. It certainly did not work out for the nose last year, but that team had plenty of problems. I'm over here. I think again, like they will just score a lot of points. I'd be shocked if they don't get the six and six, to be honest, like looking at this thing. Even if, you know, even if Oregon pounds them, which is certainly possible, what are 21.docs to. to Oregon at home. I think I was going to say 20. I saw that comment in the tailgate. My guess would be 20 point underdogs. Yeah. So I mean, I don't think you're stealing on the number there with with Oregon. You know, and it wouldn't shock me if the Tulsa game is slow for a little bit, just because like I think Tulsa is kind of feisty in the American this year, but I don't think West Virginia can score with them. You know, even on the road, they can probably, you know, probably hang high 30s or 40s there. Also, we go back to those wind totals matchups. Oh, nevermind. That's Iowa State. Sorry. I misread that. Do not do not bet them minus one and half against Iowa. Excuse me. I thought that was Iowa State. I was like, how in the hell is that? There's a pretty low limit, obviously, for most counts. So anyway, I'm over. I need to go along the state. Does have a chance to play for the big 12 title. Not like an amazing chance, but they wouldn't shock me to see them against Texas Tech. I am under and it is not fair for me to carry. If I'm going to carry everything that Drew Mestemaker and everything that White Young and everything that Caleb Hawkins did, do you know what else I'm going to carry that USF game? You know what else I'm going to carry? Some of those times where North Texas kind of had everything laid out for them and weren't able to turn the switch against the very best opponents. Got seven toss ups in my first read of this. And for me to be able to get to like a really high wind total, I've got to think that they're going to win not just more than not, but maybe even go five and two against those seven toss ups. So I think it's a proven season for Eric Morris, proven season for those North Texas, those North Texas stars that were able to go out and against a lot of teams, be a lot of teams be able to overwhelm them, but against the very, very best. You know, just felt just like a bit short. I know that not all that was Mestemaker, but would he have three, was it two touchdowns, three interceptions against the bulls? Yeah. So work left to be done, I think, prove it season, slight under, but again, I do think we are going to be watching a much improved certainly much more inspired team. That is what has a guarantee. Mt. Oklahoma State will look more inspired on Saturdays than what we saw in 2025. Coming up on the other side, more of our big 12 wind totals, including week zero participant. Let's talk about TCU and more. Next. Back here on the cover three podcast, we continue to roll through big 12 wind totals. YouTube audience got a double, just a double dose of me. Was that too much eye contact? That was great. Okay, they say you look at the camera, but you're also trying to make sure you get the words right. But if it's going to be an on camera ad read, was it didn't freak any y'all out? We're good. Good. Okay. I think it was strong. I've got to flip another one to an on camera ad read or later today. So if it was too much eye contact and made you uncomfortable, I could give you the, who's the head coach? Remember was it the Dolphins head coach who had the crazy eyes during the press conference. Yeah. Adam Gays. Yeah. If you want me to do Adam Gays eyes on home feel read, put a y in the just getting home field. We're excited to be partnered with y'all for the college football season. Okay, let's talk about TCU horn frogs. They are going to be starting out in Dublin against the North Carolina tar heels. They do have Jaden Craig, who is a part of a dynamic Harvard offense. Each of the last two years that Harvard Crimson offense averaged more than 30 points per game, more than 400 yards per game. And now he steps in with a new offensive coordinator, Gordon Samus, but it's it's sunny offense still, right? I'm still kind of I don't know. Okay. Give it to me. What's your thought here? I think this team has a different profile. I think they're probably lower tempo. I think they're probably more, you know, run game, defense, play action. I thought Gordon did a nice job at Yukon. And so I think you bring him in. I'm not saying they're going to start, you know, running 45 plays a game and 80 percent run rate. But I like it and talking to Jeremy Clark of horn frog blitz, I think I think this seems a little more run game, a little more or power football and a little different profile. Thoughts how we picking it apart. I'll go. I'm on the over. I think losing Josh Hoover clearly is the headliner of what happened to this team in the off season. But I don't I can't sit here and say I watched a lot of Jaden Craig playing at Harvard, but I have talked to a lot of people who are pretty high on him as far as his talent and what they think he can do in this offense. So I'm going to give him some benefit there. I think the bigger question mark is the offensive line. I think that was truly their major problem last year. Although I don't think Hoover helped him out a lot. I think Hoover held on to the ball a little too long at times. But they brought in a couple guys in the portal. They've gotten older. So like you look at them now. It's a bunch of like fourth year seniors, juniors and grad transfers. So you're hoping that that line will be better, but just because they're older and stronger and maybe a little bit more experienced. Defensively like this team wasn't great last year, but it wasn't bad either. And they got a lot of guys coming back. A lot of people, you know, maybe not all of them experienced starters, but a lot of guys who've been in the system and have had playing time on that side of the ball. So I wouldn't be shocked if we see a slight improvement on the defense instead of being average to being above average to even good. And then, you know, you get to the schedule. Yeah, they've got BYU, Utah, Texas, tech, and then Kansas State who I'm high on. So like the end is pretty tough. But like man, the first two-thirds of that schedule seem pretty damn manageable to me. So they might be feeling pretty good about themselves by the time they get to that death march at the end. And who knows, maybe they pull off an upset there. I'm on the over as well slightly. I do show a bigger edge by the way on six and a half at minus 66 to the over than I do seven and a half, one 25. So like if I was betting those, I would I would rather bet the six and a half and lay the juice that then, you know, then take the one 25 to get eight and four, just the way it kind of broke down with where like, you know, how many games down is their competition level drop off. But like North Carolina does not seem to be a super buttoned up operation. So what? If you're going to like, there's a variance in some of these Ireland games, right? I mean, let's recall three seasons ago or four seasons ago. Like Nebraska lost to a Northwestern team. It did not like did not win a game the rest of the year. Like you do see some strange results in some of these Ireland games. Sometimes I don't know like how you factor that in. But I think that should take care of that one. You get the weird buy week there to come back and get gambling. You get Arkansas State. Like then you're so you have a lot of time to prep for your first conference road game at UCF, which you should go and win. Not a guaranteed win. Certainly like they're not going to be 10 point favorites in Orlando. You come you come home, you play BYU, you're probably a small favorite of a BYU at home. But, you know, like that, that's a field go either way out. I would assume then you get a buy week. Like your travel is very manageable to in terms of distance. Like they're going to Baylor. That's in state. I know it's not right next door. You go to Arizona. It's a little far away. And then you go to Texas Tech, which as we've discussed, that only counts for one loss. So I'd rather play that one on the road. Like I like getting you to out home. I like getting Kansas State at home. Certainly like getting Kansas and West Virginia at home as opposed to traveling. Especially to the Mountaineer. So hey, Mountaineer's playing actual road game. Look at that. Apparently it does exist. So I'm on the over. Texas, you know, tailgate already clocked that TCU's got a really fun November. If you're just a college football fan that wants to watch like good big 12 football at Arizona, Kansas State, Utah, at Texas Tech. Those are I feel comfortably saying all top half big 12 teams. And to think that that is all going to be happening, no, under the the premise of a big 12 title race that annually provides a lot of intrigue. I think that that'll make TCU a very fun team to be able to follow. Now my question from a win totals perspective is can they go two and two across those four games? Because I do think they will be six and two by the time November starts. And I say yes, I'm slightly on the over here. I think that they're probably starting. I mean, win, win, win, seven by November. Give it to me. Seven wins going into November. Can they get one more? I say they do. Yeah. I mean, all these needs one of those last ones playing with momentum. Sonny digs back to back nine win seasons. Jayden Craig breakout star of the big 12 planted the Florida state of the North. Also from the vibes department. Sonny is a little bit of a comfortable in his own skin statesman. You know, when he was up at big 12 media days and just talking about his team and talking about the season, he's not somebody who doesn't seem to be he seems to be very focused on the task at hand, comfortable with what he's got. And he knows it's just going to be a battle, right? I mean, he's been a ball coach for 35 years, maybe longer. I mean, his fight son. He's he's somebody who I think is I'm not worried too much about his ability to get the team up and get them ready for the challenge because TCU should absolutely do that. And I am that I let let don't put it in the paper that I'm scared, but I am fearful of what's happening. Tell me. We'll see. You know, I saw it once with my eyes. I'll take it the second time on TV. That'll be that'll be plenty for me. How many times they are how many times they a dog of more than four points once the Texas tech game B.Y. Yeah, I mean, it's B.Y. Use at home. So probably, but they will be an underdog at home against B.Y. You. I think probably a slight like would you lay a touchdown on a neutral with B.Y. You can see you. I wouldn't maybe. I mean, it's just that it's preseason opinions, right? Yeah, like I like I if we all agreed this episode suck. You know, that's very true. All right, to those Texas tech red raiders where I think that I need to cut through my bias. I need to be higher on this team than I am higher on this team. It's my fault. It's Brendan Soresby's fault. It's Cody Campbell's fault. I need to cut through all of the noise that has been this offseason at Texas tech, and I need to get through to what is still the most talented roster in the big 12 an offensive line with future NFL draft picks a defensive line led by AJ Holmes might be one of the best defensive lineman in the entire country. I need to remember Mac left, which is probably a rising star in a pretty good offensive coordinator. It doesn't matter what they've got it off what if they've got it quarterback what they have to deal with. Got two stellar running backs and some talented wide receivers as well. So I'm a cut through the BS. This is a team that could be 12 and 0 at the end of the regular season. You obviously see that with the 10 and a half being hung at draft King sportsbook. Great note from striker. If you wanted to play that 12 and 0 over 11 and a half is plus 200 to the over with such wild juice around 10 and a half at 11 and a half. What's the projection and what's the outlook for the red raiders. I mean, I'm not playing it at minus 200. But I'd be on the over before I'm on anything else like it's you look at the schedule like there's no BYU or Utah. So you look at the two primary competitors for them in this conference. They don't have to play either of them in the regular season. Now, you know, they also lost to Arizona state last year when you know on the road. So it's not like this team is incapable. It's just I think this is the best team in the big 12. I think this is your clear favorite to win the big 12. I think 11 and one is very much in play. But to go to go more along what could go wrong. Like they did another very good job in the portal. I like a lot of the players they brought in like particularly along the defensive line. I think Adam trick who they got from Miami of Ohio is a good player. I think Tray White who they got from San Diego State is a good player. Bryce Butler is a good player from Washington. This is also they lost three defensive lineman from last year who were you know all drafted in the top three rounds of the NFL draft. I like these guys. Am I as confident that there is good is the three guys they lost. No, I don't think there's a David Bailey on this team. Jacob Rodriguez was a tackle machine for them. Maybe it's a system thing and maybe somebody else kind of steps in and gets another hundred thousand tackles like Jacob Rodriguez did. Maybe they don't. So I do wonder if this defense will be as elite as it was last year if we're going to see a slight drop off in what kind of problems that could cause or if maybe the offense. You know sores be we liked them we understood why they wanted them but maybe Hammond is a little bit more you know. Dual Threadish that he's more of a threat with his arm than sores be was and maybe that helps him score more points. I don't know I think this is a team that's going to be very very good. It's just I'm looking for reasons why maybe they won't be as good as these projections suggest. Yeah I'm over if I was going to bet under I would rather go under nine and a half plus four eighty then under ten and a half at plus one sixty with the reason being I think under is correlated here to quarterback injury. And so you have to kind of peg what's the drop off from will Hammond to Kirk Francis you know I do think that they were pretty heavily planning to use sores be the legs a lot in this offense this year and pound the crap out of people with an offensive line that probably deserves to be mentioned. You know with some of those better groups in the nation and oftentimes doesn't I think they're really well coached on defense like I think she'll would is is an awesome hire that they made and you know they. To some extent like they did an awesome job in the portal last year and their hit rate was probably just if you're looking at it objectively. And probably unsustainably perfect you know but still like the floor is pretty high when you have that checkbook and you have like it's not like you're talking about like a hit rate where you have like an oh eight Bama class or like a twenty 12 FSU class out of high school having a project like these guys have already played. Like full seasons of college football so like I think the floor is relatively high when you have that kind of money to spend and you're you're betting on you know pretty proven player so. I am over I think like the secondary is loaded I think there's some drop off at the defense of line the offensive line does take a big step forward. I'm a little scared that they're receiver by committee but it's a talented committee I don't think it's like an Ohio State or like a you know twenty 19 LSU level committee but. I do think that and like the chance right they didn't hit on source be that that's that's that's pretty fair but I that's because source be hit on sixteen. I don't I don't see them losing a losing a game so I'm going to go like I just think they dominate everybody like physically in a way that just nobody else since Lincoln hang with. I love to be the contrarian like I would love to say you know what finds value take under I don't know if I go as far as Bud said with the under nine and a half but then he go through it's like where are they going to come from like what even if they do have like can they still just run through everybody run the football. They do play I mean like is it going to be Houston but that games at home and you know I like Houston is it going to be Arizona though a fafita we like him that games at home possibly I mean I kind of like master maker but I just was talking about. Them I don't know if they're going to be as good as people think that's a spot maybe they're right for upset I think James Craig is really good but it's at home just the schedule is so so easy. I just I don't see them slipping up twice I think I I could see him slipping up once maybe getting complacent letting their guard down like so I'd say 11 and one. It's probably the sweet spot but I just can't I would love to take a value and say under but I just don't think it happens there is one scenario here that I thought about a little bit when looking at this over piece if they are in a situation in a final week and if they're quarterback is bang up and they have already locked up in a spot in the big 12 title game right and we know they're not going to compete for a buy in the playoff because of whatever has already happened like like the. You can kind of model this out but just just follow me like they're already locked into the 12 title game they know there's not a path to an actual buy and they know the conference champion is automatically in. If if like your quarterback who you do want to use a runner because hammock is a pretty decent mover like if he's banged do you sit him you blow that TCU game in the final week and then all of a sudden your undergoes bust like that's the worry I have not the only worry clearly we laid out some but like. You know it is it's a little like that's a short week to the chats point like they come off playing on the road at Baylor than you host TCU on Thursday. Did they make business decisions maybe but you also might be in the mix with TCU for one of those spots well but I'm assuming this is a one bid league. I'm not I'm not interested okay yeah think I mean we're not going to litigate the way that scheduled wins and losses and strength the schedule are considered by the committee but sure that's fair. It's it's very possible this is going to be a two bid league all right. Big question for UCF is Alonza Barnett healthy you missed all of spring but he did go to media days express some amount of confidence that he would be good he would be back we got to see how much we believe that. Scott for us also media days carrying some some level of confidence talks about the adjustment period the things he learned in his first season back I think that there'll be a little bit more prepared. I've got a potentially 10 game toss up situation here things go wrong it could be four and eight things go right it could be seven and five. I mean how many times are they a true double digit underdog. You know like a like an overwhelmed outclass I don't know lose Carter I say Nixon some defensive pieces to like. Tom what are you doing with the was Scott for us in the nights first of all very very questionable Danny to leave when we start talking about his beloved UCF nights. I yeah this is I have no idea what to expect from this team like it's an entirely new roster for the most part like they were so they they lost a lot in the portal and they brought in a lot of new stuff in the portal. I in theory I like the addition of Barnett into a Scott frost offense I think that could be useful I think that could be fun I just don't know when I look at the rest of this roster. What I'm truly high on like I think there's serious questions on the defensive line I think there's some questions in the secondary I think if they suffer a couple injuries on defense things could get really bad really quickly. So it's another. situation where I feel like this is a team that's going to have to outscore a lot of its opponents to win games. And I don't as much as I liked Barnett at James Madison, I just don't have him in that same kind of category that I would have Drew Mestemaker when it comes to being able to do that on a regular basis. And I look at the schedule. It is not overly punishing, but I don't know. Like this team could be like you said, Chip, they could be three and nine. They could be nine and three. If they catch the right breaks, I've got them going six and six is their most likely. So it's a very, very slight over. But I am not confident in anything. I think about this team right now. I am over on the nights. Like at least seeing Barnett move around in that video that his quarterback trainer put out, which is recent. Like UCF wasn't putting out any video of this guy. Like even like throwing from what I saw in spring. And like people around the program, like hadn't seen him. So that kind of had me kind of spooked. But like I do expect him to start. I think he's on track now. Is he going to be a great runner? I don't know. Like he was a pretty dynamic playmaker at JMU. The passing is like decent, like really good for the G5 level. But like to Tom's one, he's he's certainly far from Mestemaker. I think they're going to be like improved in the secondary to be able to run more of the type of stuff that Alex Grinch wants to run. I think some of these young receivers are a little under the radar and pretty nice gets for UCF. And so I'm going to go over. I have the material above Kansas and Iowa State in this league. They get to play both. You know, who knows what Colorado is that last week in the season. But you know, if they need that game for a bowl in Colorado doesn't, you know, maybe there's there's something there. Like at Houston, I don't know, the state are the toughest games on this thing. I think like you could say this kind of lives or dies week to it pit, which should probably be an absolute shootout. You know, Pitt had some real struggles this off season in the portal with defensive line. So I expect like you've still got to face in our duty defense. He's still going to bring a ton of pressure at you. Pitt's going to score because they have Kate Bell Mason-Heinchild. But can you score enough to win a shootout there in week two? If you get that one, I think you feel really good about going to a bowl game. Pitt's also, you know, right there on the all star of lose your week two non-conference game, but then turn it around and beat up on ACC teams. So you're sitting there at the end of the season in the ACC title race with a loss to West Virginia back in September on your resume. Yeah, I'm on the over here as well. I think this is a bowl team. They've they've got a chance to really be able to to pad it late. What will there? What will the motivations be? You know, where they will be in terms of the other teams they're playing as well. But I do think I believe Scott Frost. I think this is going to be a team that's just in general going to be leveling up in terms of their overall quality and execution. Get them up. On to the Utah youths. Um, numbers might like them more than I do. I think that the turnover along both lines of scrimmage, the loss of Jason Beck in terms of what that mean might mean for Devon Devin Pierre. We've got to replace the interior of the defensive line, five offensive line starters and offensive line coach. I had famous last words that are going to get me put on a poster in Salt Lake City, but I mean, is the must going to be enough to be able to get Utah to a nine and three season? I'm under here. Um, like that's a ton to lose and you lose a really good proven head coach as well. I got obviously they have to internally be high on scally to push out, you know, winning him. That's a pretty a pretty wild move. Um, but he took some of their better players with him for sure and took their offense coordinator. So I'm, I'm under, like I don't think you're going six and six or nothing like that, but I this is not like one I'm betting. I think like the market realize what they lost and priced it, but if I have to pick, I'm going to go under here. Yeah, I'm in agreement. It's, it's one of those like, first of all, when it comes to the roster overhaul, like they didn't have a giant portal class, at least not compared to, you know, a lot of the other teams in this league. But when I compare the level of player, I feel like they lost that kind of went out the door with winning him and that the players they brought in. I don't think they upgraded it most of those spots, but of course, that doesn't rule out the possibility of the guys are already there improving and playing well and stepping into their new starting role. So I can't rule that out, but I think the biggest thing is like, but mentioned it. We all consider Kyle winning him to be one of the best coaches in college football. He has been there forever. Typically, when a program loses, possibly their greatest coach of all time, they, they don't improve, especially when they're replacing him with a guy who maybe has been there, but has not been a head coach before, like, they can, that maybe this is the only time we're ever going to compare these two programs, but look at Alabama. Nick Sabin was pretty damn good there. Kaelin DeBoer comes in. Kaelin DeBoer is a great coach. Kaelin DeBoer has not been able to have the same kind of success at Alabama that Nick has. And of course, there's other factors in play there with like the Portland and I own all that stuff. It kind of just mirrors the SEC. But I'm just, I'm using that as an example. Like, it's the same thing I think of when I look at old Miss Lane Kivins, one of the top whatever coaches in the country. Why should we expect that team to be as good without him? And it's just the same way I feel about Utah. Like, the schedule is the schedule. I don't think it's murderous. You don't have to play Texas Tech. You do get BYU, but I kind of feel like BYU's been trending better than you the last few years. So I'm not super confident in you winning that game. Arkansas and the Noncon, I think they should win that game. It's at home, but I'm not overly confident that they're going to be able to beat Arkansas at home in that game. So yeah, I don't think the doors are going to fall off. I don't think the wheels are going to fall off. I don't think this team is going to collapse, but I'm not overly confident that this is a better than an 8 and 14. Yeah, I, if like real quickly here, I do think one, if Arkansas had any kind of quarterback that you could believe in, then like that might be more of a scary game. I do think like the left side of your screen here, if you're watching YouTube, which you should YouTube.com/coverthroughpodcast. So let's subscribe boys. There's a real chance they start 6 and 0. Right. And so if the answers are on the roster, they will have the games to figure them out with some, you know, margin of error and some comfort. I'd be pretty shocked if they're there worse than 5 and 1 in the first 6. And if they do, then this is going to spiral and we will adjust very, very, very rapidly. How many games are going to win this fall? Wrapping things up with West Virginia, year two of the part two of the Rich Rod era. We've got Michael Hawkins and Scotty Fox battling for the starting quarterback role. Cam Cook coming off a great year running back for Jacksonville State. Defense got to get better. Leaky schedule warms up a little bit. What are we doing with the mountaineers? Over under by the way, Draftking Sportsbook 5 and 1/2 heavily juice to the over. I'm going over. I don't, I don't think this is a great team. I don't think that this is, you know, a team that's really consideration to be like, you know, the sneaky playoff contender in the big 12. I do think it's a better team than what West Virginia put forward last year. I think that you look at some of their additions in the portal like Hawkins. We know Oklahoma liked them. Like, there's a reason they benched Jackson Arnold for him. And I do think that what we saw from him at Oklahoma kind of fits what Rich Rod tends to do in QB. So that could work loved what I saw of Cam Cook at Jacksonville State. So I think there's a chance that offensively this team might not be great, but they could be fun and they could be sneaky dangerous and they could be very explosive and hit enough big plays defensively. That's where all the question marks come in. So yeah, I look at the total. I'm not again overly confident, but five and a half. We're just asking them to get to a bowl game, folks. I think that I think that's in play. Yeah, I've got them favorite in five. And I only have them as a double digit dog. I think twice. So I that that's a good recipe to to make a bowl game. I do think this team will go boy at TCU at Texas Tech at Utah Classic Budelia, principle of if you're going to lose the game, lose it on the road and then get some of those coin flips back at home, especially when you've got that home field advantage when you've got that travel advantage for a good portion of the big 12 mean that that ain't going to be fun when Arizona has to pack all up and head on out to Morgantown. That's that's going to be a spot where you're looking for a little bit of travel advantage. Less so for your Houston, Kansas, things of that nature, but still something else to keep an eye on. I'm I'm not going to bet it at minus 160, but West Virginia 2026 feels like a bowl team. I feel pretty good about that. And if you feel good about fantasy football, you know what you need to do. Ho, ho, ho, ho. You can benefit charity and also compete in fantasy football against myself or Tom Bernoulli. It is the fantasy football today. FFT open benefiting the St. Jude Children's Research Hospital. Here's the way it works. We've got spots in our leagues. There are dozens of leagues and it goes to week 14. Then the winners of each league get to go and play against each other. So if you would like to be in Chip's League or Tom's League, check it out. We'll make sure to have links and we are sharing those ways to join on social media. You will be back. On Thursday 11 a.m. Eastern time to get our attention going for the ACC wind totals. Part 1 for the ACC coming hang out 11 a.m. Eastern time and you can follow him on Twitter at Tom Bernoulli. You can follow him at floodily 3. Well, to me, @ChipBunkScore Patterson, gentlemen, thank you very much. Thank you. See you.