Bibi, one more time? Israel’s election launches

[MUSIC PLAYING] The Economist. Hello, and welcome to the Intelligence from the Economist. I'm Rosie Blore. Today on the show, Will America Keep Supporting Africa's Counterterrorism Efforts? And as the World Cup approaches, Cape Fed is competing for the first time. First up, though. It would be an understatement to say, the binu minnetanyahu Israel's Prime Minister is a political survivor, though the collapse of Israel's government has repeatedly been predicted in the past couple of years, and many have wished for it, only now begins the campaign and the fight for Netanyahu's future. Today, the Knesset-Jose Parliament will begin voting on a dissolution bill. And your fefa is our Israel correspondent and the author of a biography of binu minnetanyahu. This may bring the election forward, perhaps the beginning of September. As it is, the election is supposed to take place. At the latest, by the end of October, so whatever the date turns out to be, it also already need the election season. As so many Israeli elections over the last decade or so, this will also be yet again referendum on Netanyahu's Prime Minister. So his career, his political future, is on the line. Just tell me what's triggered this vote now. So the most immediate trigger of the vote is a dispute between Netanyahu and the ultra-orthodox parties of his coalition. He promised them four years ago that this government would pass a law exempting students of religious seminaries from national service serving in the army mainly. He's failed to do that so far, and they've finally given up on waiting. And this also may be the end of his very long and very strong alliance with those ultra-orthodox parties, though it's hard to see who they will link up instead of Netanyahu if this is the end. We've got a campaign coming. Gaza is obviously going to feature hugely. What impact do you think it will have? As far as Israelis are concerned, Gaza still means one thing. And that's October 7, '23. The surprise attack by Hamas, the massacre of over 1,200 Israelis on that day. And everything that led up to the failures of intelligence, the policy that Netanyahu had of basically allowing Hamas to entrench themselves in Gaza. Those are still things that greatly concern Israelis why it happened, how to prevent it from happening again. Netanyahu is so far refused to even set up a national commission of inquiry. That is something that all the opposition parties are demanding. So I think that will almost certainly dominate the large part of the election campaign. You say that Netanyahu has refused to set up a commission of inquiry. Essentially what I think you're saying there is that there has been no reckoning about what's happened in Gaza. There's been no proper discussion about the conduct of the war. You're talking here now about two things. You're talking here about what happened on the COVID-19 and everything that led up before October 7. Then you're talking about the conduct of the war, which is everything that's happened in Gaza over the past two and a half years. And that's something that obviously the world is much more focused on the fact that over 70,000 people, the majority of whom were civilians, have been killed in Gaza, the destruction of much of the area, the fact that the population there were brought to the brink of starvation. And I don't think we'll be very much in this election because Israelis are still so fixated on what happened on October 7. And also because Israelis regard the war in Gaza, and it doesn't matter whether these Israelis are pronouncing the hour or hunting it in the hour, overwhelmingly regard the war in Gaza as a war that Israel had to fight because of what happened, because of the Hamas attack, the debate on how that war was conducted and all the bad things that had happened, the destruction, the death in Gaza, I think it's something which will play out in Israel for years to come and it needs both a different government that is capable of starting this national reckoning. And I think also for all of Israelis the processing of the trauma of what happened and that's if it's all this only starting now. - And will Lebanon or the conflict in Iran play a part? - So the fact that Israel is still fighting or there are just brief lulls perhaps in the two inconclusive wars, one in Lebanon against Khizballah and one in Iran where Israel was fighting together with America, they will also overshadow the election. The majority of Israelis believe that it was justified to go to war against Khizballah and Lebanon and against Iran over the nuclear and ballistic missile programs, but they at the same time don't see what these wars have achieved because those threats still exist. So the criticism is not so much of an attorney out going to war but failing to prosecute that war in a decisive manner. - We should remind ourselves that even before October the 7th Netanyahu was very controversial, not least for the judicial reforms he was pushing through, remind us about those. - So very quickly when the Netanyahu government came to power in December 2022, they pushed a raft of what they called the judicial reform, which was basically a series of laws aimed at weakening the Supreme Court and other parts of the legal establishment that sparked many months of very bitter and large protests in Israel that still I think will be an issue in this election. And I think there is also a broad issue in this election where it's a referendum of not just on the Tanyao, very much will be that, but also on this coalition of religious and far right parties which set out to achieve these radical changes in Israel and which at least half of Israelis are against and I think they'll be voting on that as well when this election is held. - And shall a basic but important question will Netanyahu himself stand? - Well there are rumors swirling around of the Tanyao both the hell three isn't because he's facing corruption charges which Netanyahu denies. - He perhaps will try and find a plea bargain and part of that will be resigned and not stand again. Those rumors are around. I'm not convinced that the Tanyao is even capable of resigning. This is a man who's been for 40 years now in front like politics, this will be his 12th election campaign as a leader of his liquid party. It'll be 77 when the election finally comes. I don't think he has a life outside of this and I'll be surprised if he resigns but the rumors are there. - And what's your prediction? Who will win this election? - Anybody who's covered Israeli politics for any length of time and sadly I've had to dedicate my entire career to covering them knows that you never bet against Netanyahu. He's lost before, he's failed to win elections but he's also achieved some unimaginable comeback. So I'm not gonna put any money on that but it certainly is a tall old and almost all the serious pollsters are very clear that his coalition doesn't have a majority but he does have an advantage in the fact that he's going in as serving Prime Minister. So it means that not only does the opposition have to win in a majority, they have to be able to build a coalition around another Prime Minister who will then receive the confidence of the President and replace him and that is much more difficult than just winning a majority in total. - And she'll, thank you very much. - Thank you for having me, Rosie. - I was in Jacquesville by the sea in Ivory Coast. - Tom Gardner is an Africa correspondent. It was a gray foggy morning just after sunrise and I was peering through the undergrowth out towards the sea where a motorboat was coming to shore. A dozen or so men were on board. Dressed in army fatigues that faces covered by battle clavers and I watched them as they leapt onto the shore, disembarks and began prowling through the thick forest, firing their guns. Eventually they reached the building which I was standing near and broke down the door. I had to cover my ears as they shot their guns inside the building. Each room one by one, they cleaned of terrorists to use the work they chose and rescued the hostages. - Tom, what was going on? - Well, this was anxotraining exercise. It's held annually in Africa and it's called Operation Flintlock. It's run by the American Special Forces and they train dozens of mostly Western North African Special Forces and have done every year, practically since 2005. It's sort of a mixture of a boot camp and the networking event. So as countries in the region are, threatened by Jada's militant groups in particular. This is an opportunity for these special forces under American guidance to train, swap ideas, build relationships. And the Americans provide much the funding and logistics with the support as well of several NATO partner countries. It's interesting to hear that this is run and part funded by the Americans, given all that we've heard about cuts in overseas aid from the Trump administration. Is this going to continue? It did feel for me that a bit like a throwback. I think a lot of the budgeting came from before the Trump administration returned to office. So whether it continues long into the future, given NATO rivalries and the general pullback from much of the African continent on the Americans part remains to be seen. But for now, it was certainly built to me by the officials and officers I spoke to as an opportunity for America to continue to demonstrate its strength as a security partner, particularly in comparison to rivals such as Russia and China. So who was actually involved in this exercise? Well, there's about 1,500 soldiers. What was interesting for me covering the crisis in West Africa and the Sahel region where jihadist groups have been running on mock for sort of best part of a decade now. The three countries most affected by jihadism, Marley, Bikina Faso in Niger, they declined to participate. And that's despite recent American efforts to restore security cooperation with their ruling military government. So they were invited, they chose not to attend. And why didn't they attend? Well, starting from 2020, these three countries cut ties with Western government. So they booted out in particular French troops who'd been aiding the fight against a jihadism. But also American ones also UN peacekeepers. So there's a lot of frankly bad blood really between these three governments who've drawn much closer to Russia in recent years and in general the Western Western allied countries. And of those that were there, you've already mentioned the amphibious mission. But what else are they learning? Well, Flip Lock has evolved over the years. This year a course on using drones with surveillance and reconnaissance was introduced. That was definitely a big thing. A plan was very popular with the African militaries that were present. Drones are currently being used by jihadist militant group to great effect. So there was a lot of interest in skilling up in that regard. The Americans as well, they say they've been putting more resources into countering jihadist online propaganda. That's something that has become a real ug bear, particularly that there is evidence and a sense that a lot of this has also been amplified by the Russian. So that's become a key priority. So for the first time, local social media influences were invited. So all of this, to me, seemed in a way as like something of a relic of a kind of bygone era of American led multilateralism. In terms of content or in terms of its mere existence. It's mere existence, certainly, but also I mean elements of the exercise that were emphasized to me by American officers included training local armies in human rights, the rule of law, for example. There was one American officer who gushed about the work they were doing to engage with local communities. Another one mentioned to me that this was an opportunity to get 30 plus countries into a room to talk to each other. It sounded rather like the UN, not really like a member of Trump's circle department of war. So in that respect as well, I think it felt a little bit out of sync with the times. So Tom, what impact are training exercises like this have on Africa's efforts to counter terrorism? Well, I mean, the short answer is they have not been massively effective. I mean, if you consider that these exercises began in 2005 and over the subsequent two decades, a huge amount of resources and money being invested by the US and other Western allies, particularly the French in counter terror, in training, but at the same time over that period, jihadism has continued to spread, not just in Bikina Faso and Niger and Marley, which are really fragile these days, but also some of the coastal nations, including Ivory Coast, which has experienced attacks on its northern border, Togo, Benina as well. So I think the evidence today is that this approach has not worked quite as well as America had hoped. Tom, thank you very much. Thank you Rosie. On a sunny Sunday in East London, a group of young men from Cape Verde have gathered for football training. John Fasman, our senior culture correspondent, is counting down to this summer's FIFA World Cup by introducing us to 10 of the teams taking part. Many are wearing the jersey of their home country and have big dreams for Cape Verde at the World Cup this summer. We are not on the dogs issue, like really untrill it, we are not on the dogs, but at this point, we've already put ourselves in a position and have thought that they do well, that's what it is. I'm not really aiming for them to win the Cup because that sounds a bit extreme now. If we get at least like quarter semis, everyone will know about them. We'll represent in Africa as well, not just our country, because if a nation so small like Cape Verde can qualify for the World Cup, it just shows other small African nations, whether it's African, Caribbean, Asian, that you know it's possible. Cape Verde is tiny, with a population of just over half a million people. It's an archipelago comprising 10 volcanic islands located 350 miles off the coast of West Africa. The closest countries are Senegal and Mauritania. Uninhabited until Portugese explorers found the islands in the mid 15th century, Cape Verde has been independent and relatively stable since 1975. This is its first World Cup. Being such a small nation, a lot of people don't know even where Cape Verde is. They don't even know Cape Verde is a country, so we need to put ourselves out there and show that where Cape Verde will. I'm very, very excited that first time seeing my country in that World Cup, like I actually have someone to actually support it, yeah. Their men's national team came together in 1978, just a few years after the country gained independence from Portugal. Their World Cup squad is a mix of homegrown talent and players pulled in from the diaspora, many of whom play for European clubs. Cape Verde is qualified for the World Cup, we're massing kids and a scholarship achievement for the island nation. Recruiting the squad has given rise to some unlikely origin stories. Roberto Lopez is an Irish-born defender who plays for the Shamrock Rovers, a Dublin-based team in Ireland's Premier League. He got his invitation to join the team through a LinkedIn message. Initially, he ignored it because it was in Portugese, but after some help from translation apps, he joined the team and helped secure qualification last October. What the dude is to be the fourth Cape Verde in team here to lift all the people in the nation, to put them on the last stage, there's no better feeling than that. Now, Cape Verde will find it hard going to get out of the group stage. They'll play against Saudi Arabia, Uruguay and Spain. Still, their supporters are optimistic that a sea of blue will be in the stadiums, on the beaches, and in the bars, for the blue sharks. They're going to do. Félio, obviously we've got Spain. We're playing against Spain in the first match, which is not going to be easy, but I've got faith in them. I feel we can put up a good game. There's a lot of good leaders in America to be honest, like, especially Boston, so I think there will be a good crowd representing us there, and pushing the team. But at this football pitch in East London, there's more on these players' minds than just watching the games. This whole journey to the World Cup has been inspiring. I feel like it's more than just the people of Cape Verde is the entire world. You have people in villages that don't even have shoes that are playing football. Football is just a way that we can connect with one another. Even if we speak different languages, they're just a wonderful sport. It's the best sport. And now these young players have a new goal, to play for their country. It would mean everything. It's a dream. It's a dream come true. Hopefully I get better and each day, we get better and hopefully they see me and I can play for that one day. So this is a message to the world out there. Just know that we're coming and we're coming to show ourselves and we're not underdogs. And now I'm letting you guys know that for now. That's it. That's all for this episode of The Intelligence. See you back here tomorrow.