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Beyond COP: Can Brazil Chart a Path Off Fossil Fuels?

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Beyond COP: Can Brazil Chart a Path Off Fossil Fuels?

The discussion centers on Brazil's proactive role as the sitting COP30 presidency throughout 2025, a departure from the norm where presidencies typically conclude with the conference. With incoming presidencies (Turkey and Australia) focused on logistical and procedural arrangements, Brazil is leveraging its formal authority to drive substantive climate action. Its agenda builds on COP30 outcomes, addressing perceived shortfalls in finance and mitigation. Key focuses include advancing negotiations, developing detailed roadmaps for fossil fuel transition and deforestation, strengthening adaptation, and institutionalizing the "action agenda" to work alongside formal UN consensus decisions—an innovation intended to overcome procedural bottlenecks. A major emphasis is on creating a collaborative, multi-stakeholder platform for a fossil fuel transition roadmap. This would consolidate existing knowledge, analyze systemic risks and economic dependencies from both producer and consumer country perspectives, and explore political strategies for a just and orderly shift. The approach reframes the challenge as reducing dependency rather than outright opposition, aiming to build complementary solutions. Despite geopolitical headwinds and recent multilateral tensions, Brazil argues that planning this transition collectively is more urgent than ever to avoid reactive crises and ensure equity. The presidency views its continued leadership as crucial for maintaining momentum and filling gaps left by COP30.

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Hello and welcome to Outragean Optimism, I'm Tom Ravikarnak. I'm Cristiana Fierires, and I'm Baldergensen. Today we catch up with Anatoni CEO of COP30 and ask what does the year ahead hold for the Brazilian COP presidency? Thanks for being here. So today we're going to revisit the COP that happened in Berlin at the end of last year, where we conducted so much reporting, we were there every day as listeners will know. I suppose some people may be slightly confused about why I'm talking still about the Brazilian COP presidency, but that of course, as we have mentioned on the podcast, the presidency of a COP begins when your COP begins and it lasts for the full year afterwards. Formally. Yeah, formally. So maybe you explain why you say formally. Yeah, I say formally because in practice, what actually happens is that the incoming presidency, the government that is going to host the COP at the end of the year, starts all of its political work at the beginning of the year in which they will host the COP. So we're used to, in this case, for example, Brazil taking over all of its political responsibilities at the beginning of 2025 and then doing all of its prep work throughout 2025, and then formally taking over as COP president at the beginning of the COP in Brazil. However, that formal takeover of the COP of the responsibility of the presidency doesn't end until the next COP starts. In this case, the end of this year, 2026. So there's some sharing of responsibility. I mean, even though it's formally the Brazilians who are still in charge, of course, we now know that the Turkish and the Australians are incoming, and they will have the political wind at their backs and people will want to be talking to them much more. Yes, and I fear that because there is such an awkward and cumbersome agreement between Australia and Turkey about how the presidency is going to be run, who's going to be responsible for what? I fear that this entire year will be taken up by the two of them, Turkey and Australia, just trying to figure out the process that they're going to actually collaborate through or with, and I actually would put a question mark whether either of them and certainly both of them would have the bandwidth to work on the content of the COP itself as well, or how much time they would be able to dedicate to that. Who's going to take the political responsibility from here to the end of the year. So that's why I think it is so helpful that Brazil says, "Wait a second, we're the formal sitting COP presidency now. We don't have to worry about who's going to run the COP, who's going to be doing logistics, who's going to be doing any of that, we're just going to worry now about the content." So they're giving continuity to the Brazilian COP, to Berlin, and that's pretty unique because as Anatoni will remind us in the interview that we have with her, we have in the past had this tradition of Troika of three presidencies working, but honestly that has been more symbolic than anything else. Brazil is not going to be a symbolic sitting COP presidency. They are really going to roll up their sleeves and exercise their political leadership. So, good on them. So let's talk a bit about what they're going to do, and I think probably the place we should just touch on. Of course, we've done so much reporting from the COP already, including a wrap-up analysis at the end, but in a way their agenda is shaped by what did and also what did not happen at COP 30. And to a certain degree, what they're trying to do is to build on their legacy and maybe arguably fill in the bits they didn't feel went far enough. Paul, maybe we'll go to you. How do you think the world has responded to COP 30 since we were there a few months ago? That's exactly the question I wanted to ask both of you, but I've been asked that question. And so I'm going to, you know, in a way, I haven't got a sort of, you know, a seasoned statistical analysis of media. My general sense was there was a kind of underwhelming but sense of progress. Everything's been kind of eclimbed by a sense of, you know, kind of just full-on institutional madness coming out of the nation of the United States at the moment. So significance in the COP is being a little bit melted in this fireworks display out of Washington. I actually think, and we'll hear more about this in the interview with Anatonia, but this idea of seeking to end dependency on fossil fuels, I think is an extremely smart formulation. The more I think about it, the more I find it interesting. And I'll just give you one example. If you build a public transport system, it doesn't stop citizens using cars, right? It's simply avoids a dependency on cars. And it's that reframing of a sort of an oppositional battle into a kind of complementary space where we can build rather than attack one another. I think that actually there's some genius in that. So I hope that will come forward. And of course, there's this summit coming up, isn't there, with the Columbia and the Netherlands in Columbia talking about the sort of road map to phase out fossil fuels. So there are initiatives coming up in the year ahead. How do you answer the same question you asked me? Well, I can give you an answer and then Christiana Keente here, your reflections as well. I mean, I think broadly the world is appreciative of the considerable efforts and expertise that were applied by the COP30 team, Anatonia, André de Lago, Ita Manate, they put so much effort into this. But at the end of the day, there is quite a bit of disappointment that we didn't go further, particularly on finance and on mitigation. I think that they really push to try to get these roadmaps in place. And it just proved to be too difficult. And as we all remember, there was a moment when the whole thing really began to feel like it was very stressed and difficult. And I think at one point, actually, a much more disappointing outcome was possible. So they pulled it back. They certainly landed something that moved us forward. But I think that I definitely sensed, and I think we feel that too from Anna. So I don't think we're saying anything she wouldn't agree with, that there was disappointment that we couldn't push the issue to really define the roadmap on fossil fuels to really define a more clear roadmap on finance. And that's not to discount what was there, but I do think that's a reality. I would agree with both of you and I would add that I think that their leadership to push through the two roadmaps that did not get adopted to transition away from fossil fuels and the land-based and stopping deforestation roadmap are clearly necessary in and of themselves to advance mitigation agenda. But also, what I find fascinating is that they have now formalized something that has been occurring informally for quite a few years, and that is the following. We're used to thinking of processes that advance the climate agenda as primarily stemming out of decisions that are submitted, or ideas that are submitted at the COP and that then result in a consensus or unanimous decision of the COP. And that's what we're used to thinking of. What they're saying is, yes, that is very true, and Antony gives us the number of decisions that came out of the multilateral process, comma, and the work on climate does not stop there. What they're saying is we, the COP president, are formalizing the fact that there is a body of work that requires and does get the unanimous and consensus agreementable countries. There's another body of work that does not compete with that actually complements those consensual decisions and actions, but that stands right next to it adjacent, and those are the initiatives that come from a group of like-minded countries, etc. And we know that is the whole action agenda, right? That is complementing what is happening on the formal side. What I think is fascinating is that by stepping into that space as the COP presidency, they are formalizing much more than has been done before. They're formalizing that, if you will, the action agenda or the complementary progress that can be made side by side with those actions that do get unanimous or consensual decision. That is key because I think it will open the door for much more work at future COP's under that banner. I think future presidencies will feel that they are now justified in pushing for whatever they feel is possible within the consensual process. And if it's not, they can move forward anyway. So I think it opens the space of action, opens the space of participation, and to a huge extent addresses one of the major road blocks or weaknesses that have been identified about the multilateral process, which is that everything needs to be by consensus. No, it does not need to be by consensus. That I think is the procedural point that they are making. And I think it's a brilliant way to do it. So I very much welcome their work on those two road maps for the content of the work that they're going to do, but also for I would say innovative procedural measures. Okay. I wonder if we should now go to our interview. We obviously had a conversation. You led this Cristiano with Anatoni. Listeners will know Anna already. Good friend, CEO of COP30. Long history in the climate movement before then. And we'll continue in post through this year. So this was a great interview and enabled her to set out her vision for what she wants to achieve in this year. So maybe we should go there and come back for some more discussion. Anatoni, thank you so much for joining us for a quirky reason that we don't need to discuss right now. A COP presidency assumes their responsibility at the beginning of the COP. And then basically does the COP and at the end of the COP feels that they have done their job. But Anatoni has shared with me that Brazil in my recollection for the first time in history of the convention would like to be a very active sitting COP presidency. So Anna, thank you so much for joining us. What is your sense of the package that was adopted at the end of COP30? So first of all, happy new year for you Cristiano, Tom and Paul. And thank you so much for the coverage that you had at COP. And I think this shows that people and I think COP, I mean, do you think Cristiano, do you think about us being active this year? And yes, I think Andrea, who had the logo, the president of COP30, she made it very clear at the end of the last plenary that yes, who make sure that the presidency of COP30 will be an active one. But when we look at COP30, there are so many things that we can talk and we've been reading everything and listening to all the different interpretations of COP30. And especially now, what's happening, you know, the last two weeks with mutual atrialism, I'm so pleased that our three goals, which was strengthening mutual atrialism, being a COP for the people and off the people and accelerating action. Those three objectives that we had, I think we have accomplished them. Very fully, we have 56 agreements in terms of decisions, consensus decisions at COP. We know how difficult it is to get any consensus about anything nowadays. So really please about the 56 ones on just transition agenda, the moochedown decision and others, the action agenda was absolutely great for us. The restructuring of the action agenda with the group stock take, being the umbrella, really, really important to accelerate implementation. So I think we managed to bring that acceleration. And I think one of the very interesting thing about COP30 was the unprecedented debate about fossil fuel that we had during the COP was just amazing since COP28. Even in COP28, the type of debate that we had this time at COP30 was really rich in terms of numbers of countries that came after saying that we wanted a roadmap and another group of countries saying we don't and therefore we couldn't get into the legal decisions, but the public debate and that we need to be continued this year is even more clear after what we saw in Venezuela last week. Now moving forward, you called me some time during, as I say, when everybody else was resting and you said, right, we have not taken any rest here, we are working hard and we have a plan. for what Brazil would like to do as a follow-up to the COP. As I remember it, it has four parts, so would you like to walk us through that? We are in these of planning sessions that we have in and listening to key people and obviously you are one of them to see your reactions and to hear others, but the four parts that we are looking at and planning, as I said throughout the last weeks, is first obviously there are lots of things related to the negotiations that a COP30 or a COP30 will have to do. There is decisions on the moochie down that defines that we need to do. For example, the accelerator is something that we agreed to be discussed and led by COP30 and COP31, so this is one thing that we feel really important has to do with accelerating implementations, so very please about that. There is also on the negotiation the delay mission 1.5 that has to do with ambitions of NGC's and apps, so that's one bucket. The second one is the three roadmaps, very important one and I think score of the work that we wanted to do. As you remember last year, the COP president and there has to deliver the roadmap on 1.3 trillion. We did deliver the report, the report came just before the COP. There is a lot of work to debate and mobilize support for how to mobilize 1.3 trillion, so we wanted to go deeper on that debate of 1.3 trillion. The fossil fuel road map, with the big debate at COP30 that we had, again, the Hendreco-Headolago did say at the last plenary that Brazil, COP30 presidency will do two roadmaps, the road map on fossil fuel transitioning away from fossil fuel and another one to combat geforestation and obviously forest, so we will be engaging everybody and we wanted to do that in a really collaborative manner, delivering those two new roadmaps. The third bucket for us that was very important is adaptation, I think COP30 was a turning point on the debate about adaptation, especially finance for adaptation. We wanted to deepen that debate, so adaptation will be key for us and finally is consolidating the action agenda. The action agenda, we have reworked the action agenda and we really strongly feel now that we wanted to link the action agenda that was re-structured into the six axes with the climate weeks, for example, where we can have the climate weeks more and more relating to the Globstock take, perhaps using the same structure of the five-year plans that was agreed in COP30 as a frame to organize and help us to dialogue during climate weeks, and we feel that this is the new agenda, I think COP30 really helped us to move towards implementation and I think the action agenda is at the center of that. So those are the four big buckets. Each of them have a lot of details that we discussed as well, Cristiana, one of them is how to do roadmaps. Everybody knows how to do big roadmaps and roadmaps as something that's easy to do. So we are discussing that's why we had that conversation. What is the expectations of a roadmaps and especially the one on fossil fuel that I know is a topic that you discussed so much and how to go forward with that and we do have some ideas at the moment and as I said discussing with others on how to do a roadmap that can be more than a document but can be a platform to continue an ongoing debate that's overdue for us to start planning the transitioning away from fossil fuel. How do you imagine that platform? At the moment, what we think in that platform is obviously we do need a document that brings a lot of the ideas that are already out there. There's a lot of no documents being produced every day on scenarios for that transitioning away. So how can we bring that knowledge together? But we feel that that document has to be done again in a collaborative manner. So obviously we feel one of the areas is the systemic risks and we needed a place to put all the systemic risks not only the negative tipping points but also the systemic risk related to finance and economics. We needed to look at it from the perspective of producing countries. What are the difficulties of producing countries that they don't only depend on the fossil fuel for their own energy needs? They are exporters. They depend for financial and economic reasons. So what is the perspective and what are countries most ready to do the move to transitioning away from a producer point of view? There is a perspective also of consumer countries. Consumer countries have different challenges. What are their challenges? What are the countries most prepared as consumers also to transitioning away? And what should be the next steps? For example, which type of investments they need to transition away? One point that I feel that we have not yet debated a lot as a group is what are the political strategies we have for transitioning away? We saw it in COP 30 that debate how of the countries wanted the language to be agreed and another half not wanting that. Is that the UNFCC the only place for the international governance on fossil fuel? You know the UN has never had international energy agency. We only have the atomic agency under the UN. The debate about energy is scattered everywhere. But what are the other governance structures that we needed to look at to go ahead on transitioning away in a just actable and fair manner? So looking at the first economic challenges and financial challenges on transitioning away and look at the political challenges and opportunities. What are the places is something that I think we needed to have in a document to make that debate more mature from all the different perspectives. I mean I remember so well the ambition of the Brazilian COP presidency to get this language on fossil fuels and the big fight you had in the plenary and of course it was only two months ago but it feels like years ago given everything that's happened in between not least the removal of President Maduro and the participation and the removal of the sitting president of another country. That symbolizes what is of course happening in the US which is not only pulling out of multilateralism but also doubling down on fossil fuels which will create an and emboldened other producers. Do you still think that there is a pathway for a roadmap with broad participation on fossil fuels given the changes since the COP? I mean we said in every letter from the copterge president that is moving together by choice. We ended every letter saying we wanted to move ahead together planning that change because this is the only manner to be fair, equitable and just and what we are seeing now is the opposite of that. So yes we needed to explore exactly what are the options to move that together by choice planning this transition. We do need to plan the transition rather than be expected just to react to the movement. So I think more than ever Tom we need to explore the different scenarios of a transitioning that is orderly just and actable and there is enough knowledge there for us to put together and we start this discussion at COP 30 we feel COP 30 is now a platform that can continue that discussion and obviously together with COP 31 and then COP 32 and going forward we need to have that discussion. One thing that I know is very close to your heart on that topic Ana is the dependence of the global economy on fossil fuels which is every day less but it is not moving toward less fast enough and if there was a lesson from the Venezuela kidnapping of Maduro it is how deep that dependence on fossil fuels is actually determining politics and aggression. So I would just love to invite you to speak a little bit more about that dependence on fossil fuels and how you are thinking of framing our transition away from fossil fuels through the lens of the risky dependence on fossil fuels. This phrase about dependence on fossil fuel came from President Lula at COP 28 already. At COP 28 President Lula said we need to end our dependency on fossil fuel and he repeated time and time again during COP 30. Since the summit he was talking about how can we diminish our dependency on fossil fuel. So what we are thinking on the roadmap and looking as I was saying as the first pillar being the document when we look at from producer's point of view consumers point of view economic financial point of view is with that goal how can any country being a producer consumer or looking at the economic dependencies how can we plan less dependency. This is absolutely key on the document but also people are not conscious about our own dependency on fossil fuel we don't know how much we are all dependent on fossil fuel on the way we transport obviously many countries in terms of the electricity needs but also in most of the equipments we have at home plastic and there are so many ways that all of us are dependent on fossil fuel and that is not clear to people how dependent we are. And again I think we have an opportunity using as a platform this year to communicate that dependency I would love if we had and I don't know if we have one but to have a calculator of dependency on fossil fuel so all of us all companies all institutions could measure how dependent are they on fossil fuel is this good or bad so each of us could have national plans and scenarios for less dependence we could have also our own institutions our own lives being less dependent on fossil fuel because I truly believe and I think the Venezuela case is again show to us that we had the whole thing about Venezuela and the price of oil has not changed because there is oversupply at the moment and what is determining is the consumption so we need to debate much more the consumption of fossil fuel the dependence that we have and again I think the the economic dependence of countries is really important we shouldn't underestimate that because some countries depend on the GDP on 70 80 percent all their exports depended so much on fossil fuel and that needs to look at art and to see what are the scenarios without that dependency. And if I may briefly say that I've certainly spent more than 20 years and worked with Tom for some years on a kind of repository certainly that describes companies performance in this area and I think it's a very very rich area so we'd love to think you know as some other time how we can kind of advance that I wanted to say this this vision you had of strengthening multilateralism before the cop you know we probably need the diplomatic vision and energy of Brazil more than ever in the year ahead given the other forces that are undermining multilateralism but this brings me to a very practical question many many thousands of people who listen to outrage and optimism how do they practically get involved do they contact you know the Brazilian government or what is it's like a huge question but I wondered very practically how people can kind of contribute to helping to fulfill the vision of Serra. At cop 30 we brought this concept of multilateral and I think what cop 30 show is that it's not one process anymore they are many we cannot depend it up to one player just the opposite I think they fight against climate change has become a collective effort so they don't need to contact a cop 30 presidency or the Brazilian government they should go to their own cities and start asking their own mayors how dependent is their cities or their company or their organizations on fossil fuel what they can do to think about scenarios for them to become less dependent on fossil fuel and do send it to your repository or any other repository how people are doing because like now is obviously a moment of action what it is inspire people is action so we need to move this needle bottom up and top down we need it to come from all different sources but I think will be a movement it is called active actions that we see will be the only way forward at this moment hopefully in cop 30 one we will be able to move the needle internationally as well let us hope for that but not just wait for that let us do what we can do at the level that each of us can do be it as a CEO be it a teacher or whatever people are but we need to be conscious about our dependency that's not the fault of anybody is the model of development but now we need to be conscious about how we can diminish that dependency so to summarize start where you are use what you have do what you can but I love that framing dependency scenarios actions thank you and I would just like to bring you out a little bit Ana thank you for going a little bit into the roadmap of dependence on fossil fuels the third roadmap on nature-based solutions what emerging ideas do you have there I mean for what I understand from experts that we are you know contacting and learning from in terms of the forest and geforestation it seems there is a much more international language already in the direction that we need to take there is obviously now in again on cop 30 with the TFFF there is a new movement to looking at economic instruments to help both geforestation conservation and reforestation you need different economic instruments for each of those three things so it seems that in the area of the roadmap of the forest geforestation and reforestation there is much more debate and international agreed language to that so you may be pulling things that are ready there will help us going forward in a coordinated manner and there are international organizations that are already working with that so we'll be contacting those players to be working with us and see how can we move that needle off but I think again bringing back to being an era of implementation I hope that through this now process that starting cop 30 now this platform that we'll be putting forward at cop 31 and cop 32 we can continue this debate about how is not any longer a question of if is a question of how we are going to diminish our dependency and we need to be very practical about that and we haven't been able yet to put some of the scenarios there that we need the political and economic ones so hopefully that will be a contribution to the debate and it seems to me that the dependence question has two sides to it one is some countries economy depends on the export of fossil fuels but those are basically can be counted on two hands but most countries depend on importing fossil fuels still and therefore the challenge there is how to begin to substitute that and many countries have been moving over to renewables but for example just to use the most striking case so many Pacific islands dedicate 2025 sometimes even 30% of their national budget to import fossil fuels a because of the cost of fossil fuels but also because of the very expensive transport and so that's the extreme case and obviously they're the ones that are most motivated to move over to renewables but 80% of our world's population lives in countries that are importing fossil fuels so that is the other side of the dependence question absolutely absolutely but even countries that depend I mean for example France that has an energy sector as we know they still depend on more than 50% of the energy on fossil fuels although they don't produce anything so it's again an economic issue so it's not just the ones that are exporting that dependent economically is just in terms of the cost to substitution is also big and I'm not sure in how many countries the debate about diminishing the economic dependency how many countries have involved their finance ministers how many of them have involved the president of their central banks to debate those issues so I think that debate has not yet I mean we have the circles of ministers of finance that we put together G20 we start a little bit of that debate but that link between the economic dependency and I would say it's not just of the producing countries it's obviously much more for the producing countries and they are not just a few of them unfortunately they are many of them and there are some that are mixed like Brazil Brazil is a big exporter producer of fossil fuel and also is one of the most country that most rely on on renewable energy 90% of our electricity comes from renewable so you have a mix and understanding that mix understanding each now country and where they are and what could be that diminished but in each be conscious that they we all need to diminish our dependency be it economic be energetic be by is that easier by sector is that easier by country those are the types of discussions and why should be a taboo to discuss that absolutely absolutely I know thank you so much thank you so much we look forward to the leadership of Brazil during this year and to much more to taking the the results of the cop really as you say to the implementation level in the ways that you have laid out and and many more because I think there was a lot of residual enthusiasm that we saw at the end of the of the cop that it really spread out so much enthusiasm for getting the work done and I wouldn't say even despite the United States I would say maybe even because of the United States withdrawal I think there is a scenario we will wait to see if this is true that there can be a reaction in the opposite direction and Christiana just went out I mean again reacting to Tom that we were not able to get an agreement in blame on the fossil fuel but unfortunately he haven't even seen countries putting forward agenda items on that topic throughout the history I mean for again everybody that they've been following negotiations and you above everybody knows that negotiators love to know what's coming up they don't like surprises if that topic came at a late stage perhaps but now that we had had the debate is unprecedented debate there so hopefully some of the countries that supported that movement will be able to 80 you had 80 countries supporting that exactly exactly but let us see if any of them will suggest that as an agenda item and let us see how others will react to that the consensus process takes time unfortunately and that's why now we need that you go with consensus but also all the ways to move the needle faster in the implementation era thank you so much for having me here nice to see you again Anna thank you Anna thank you thank you and look forward to continuing to work with you okay so great to catch up again with Anna Tony and hear her reflections a couple months on from the cop pull maybe I start with you what did you think of that discussion I mean I just love the scale and the ambition of the Brazilian government you know how a nation can support a global movement and can can really move people now obviously the key is to sort of delivering the enabling frameworks approaches the ideas a kind of a attitude around the world and I guess they're trying to stimulate but quoting Cristiano from before the tv show talking about innovating procedural development and opening a space for for innovative procedure the phrase I would use is projecting your dreams I think and it only and the Brazilian government are creating an enormous space a blank piece of paper for us to do that so I found that very exciting a real tonic you know what I thought was fascinating about our conversation with Anna Tony that happened this week so definitely after Christmas and after the US announces with the draw from the UNFCCC what I found fascinating is the absence of any referring to that I mean it's like it never happened it is inconsequential to what Brazil is going to do I just thought that was fascinating absolutely fascinating that you know they know what needs to be done they have a plan they're going to go forward and they're going to work with those who want to go forward and I guess it will be left to the future top presidencies to work with those who don't want to go forward or who don't even turn up but I just love that attitude of okay who's in the party here we go this roll up our sleeves and get it done I just love that attitude imagine there's like a meeting of the coalition of the willing and agenda point number one is what do we think about the not willing no that's not agenda point number one the coalition of the willing of what we're going to do exactly exactly I just love that yeah I completely agree with that attitude and thank goodness that it's a country with such political heft and diplomatic ability as Brazil right you know if we had a different cop presidency they may find it more difficult Costa Rica could have pulled off something like that Costa Rica obviously I don't think so I don't think so just keep plowing a diplomatic path knowing that they're essential to the Chinese food supply chain and all sorts of other things they've got so much and in this they've got so much power which enables them to just keep saying let's just move forward and that's actually brilliant and it sort of shows the opportunity that comes from a year like this so I really hope Anna's brilliant and Andrew's brilliant they're going to stay focused on this issue they're going to keep trying to move us forward and inevitably as the year goes on as you mentioned in the beginning Christiana the world will begin to pivot to the new cop presidency in the form of Turkey and Australia and I just hope they stay there because they can have such a big impact the president presidency just stay there on the agenda and push and push because I'm sure it will be frustrating and they won't get the things they want and in some ways they've had their big moment in the sun and it may be hard to deliver new things but actually I think in a funny way we might look back in the years time and say it was the year after the cop that they really were able to make process by progress by bringing coalitions together to be interesting wouldn't it to review that through the year and that might be a new model of how you run a cop you kick it off you do what you can diplomatically and then you really work throughout the year to put the coalitions together into the breakthroughs yeah yeah I mean that's what I was saying before because going into the cop you do have to work with all parties you know the full multilateral panoply of countries but after you don't you can just work with you know those who want to work it frees up the presidency it's fascinating I don't know if you know that phrase the deer in the headlines but I work with somebody and they they showed this graphic they've made of a deer and you know the kind of this is sort of light in the eyes of the animal when the car headlights catch it and there were little faces of Donald Trump in the eyes of the deer as if to say we've been caught in this of the headlights of this madness but we're not deer and this isn't a car approaching us we're actually a great big world taking collective action to protect our children and future generations and yeah moving on just moving on that's the spirit on it okay and speak of moving forward into 2026 obviously this week and last we've talked very much about the engagement in the international process we will keep touching on that throughout the years we work our way towards the next cop but we're also going to have a lot of programming that looks more practically at the progress we're making how we can come together and deliver the outcomes we need this year the three of us together with our brilliant team will be coming together to talk about delivering the outcomes this year together in person next week so very exciting and I know we've mentioned this before but keen to receive your questions we've had so many and we're going to do our best to get through them it looks like it could be multiple episodes looking at that and we'll put them out over the coming months so please do send questions about 2026 about what happened last year about the outlook for the coming year we would be very pleased to receive them and looking forward to seeing the two of you early next week yay see you then and speak to you all soon enough bye for now bye bye

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. Brazil's COP30 presidency is uniquely active beyond the formal COP event, focusing on content and continuity throughout 2025, while the incoming presidencies (Turkey and Australia) manage logistics and process.
  2. The agenda includes four main areas
  3. A key procedural innovation is formalizing that climate action can progress through collaborative initiatives outside strict UN consensus, broadening participation and addressing a major weakness of the multilateral process.
  4. The fossil fuel transition roadmap aims to be a collaborative platform examining systemic risks, producer/consumer country perspectives, and political strategies, emphasizing a planned, just transition away from dependency.

Summary:

The discussion centers on Brazil's proactive role as the sitting COP30 presidency throughout 2025, a departure from the norm where presidencies typically conclude with the conference. With incoming presidencies (Turkey and Australia) focused on logistical and procedural arrangements, Brazil is leveraging its formal authority to drive substantive climate action. Its agenda builds on COP30 outcomes, addressing perceived shortfalls in finance and mitigation. Key focuses include advancing negotiations, developing detailed roadmaps for fossil fuel transition and deforestation, strengthening adaptation, and institutionalizing the "action agenda" to work alongside formal UN consensus decisions—an innovation intended to overcome procedural bottlenecks.

A major emphasis is on creating a collaborative, multi-stakeholder platform for a fossil fuel transition roadmap. This would consolidate existing knowledge, analyze systemic risks and economic dependencies from both producer and consumer country perspectives, and explore political strategies for a just and orderly shift. The approach reframes the challenge as reducing dependency rather than outright opposition, aiming to build complementary solutions. Despite geopolitical headwinds and recent multilateral tensions, Brazil argues that planning this transition collectively is more urgent than ever to avoid reactive crises and ensure equity. The presidency views its continued leadership as crucial for maintaining momentum and filling gaps left by COP30.

FAQs

The formal presidency begins at the start of a COP and lasts for the full year afterward, until the next COP begins.

Brazil is actively exercising political leadership throughout its presidency year, focusing on content and continuity rather than being merely symbolic.

The plan includes advancing negotiations, developing three roadmaps (on finance, fossil fuels, and deforestation), deepening adaptation efforts, and consolidating the action agenda.

It reframes the goal as ending dependency on fossil fuels rather than outright opposition, creating a complementary space for building alternatives like public transport.

Brazil formalizes that climate progress includes both unanimous COP decisions and complementary initiatives from like-minded countries, expanding the action space beyond strict consensus.

COP30 achieved 56 consensus decisions, strengthening multilateralism and advancing agendas like just transition and the Global Stocktake.

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