This Invest Talk compilation addresses key investor questions on forex trading, gold, portfolio allocation, and risk management. Forex trading is deemed too risky and complex for beginners, with strong emphasis on technical analysis and currency dynamics. Gold is viewed as a vital hedge against inflation and macroeconomic instability, though gold miners may face sharp pullbacks; investors should maintain a core gold exposure via ETFs for stability. A major takeaway is the importance of regular rebalancing—especially in light of potential rate hikes and market overexposures like in emerging market funds or single-sector holdings such as VEMAX. Position sizing is recommended to cap individual risk at 5%, with dynamic adjustments based on market conditions. For defensive investments during market downturns, sectors like materials, industrials, and healthcare are highlighted as more resilient than financials or utilities. Risk management strategies such as stop-loss orders and trailing stops are advised, with a clear distinction between shorting stocks (unlimited loss risk) and buying puts (limited downside). The program also stresses the importance of evaluating companies beyond earnings, focusing on free cash flow and operational fundamentals. Finally, it emphasizes that no one-size-fits-all strategy exists, and individual financial situations—such as retirement account loans or time horizons—demand personalized advice. KPP Financial reinforces that accountability and transparency are central to its approach, and listeners are encouraged to seek free portfolio reviews for tailored guidance.
This is a Best of Invest Talk episode from KPP Financial.
Listener questions will be answered and commentary provided by Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero.
Let's go take a YouTube comment question and Selenemari says, "What are your thoughts
on forex trading?"
Understand it can be quite risky, yet the US dollar is forecasted to go down and the
currencies like the Euro and Yann are strongly forecasted to go up.
I don't hear many people talking about it.
Well, first off, you're correct, it is very risky and this because the general trend
of the dollar over the coming years will likely be down doesn't mean it's going to be down
every year and it depends on what currency you aren't talking about.
Frankly, if you're going to short any currency, it would just be the currencies and buying
hard assets and I think that's a better way to go.
You mentioned two currencies, Euro and the Yann, well, the Euro is strong as the dollar,
but the Yann remains relatively weak against the dollar.
So you really need to understand those dynamics and trading forex is really a lot about
technicals.
It's a lot about understanding, flows, currency flows, trade flows, all of that.
And so for the novice investor, I highly advise against it, 9 and a 10 currency traders
will have themselves up and they lose a bunch of money.
So I would not do it.
James from New York, you had a question about gold?
Yes I do.
They should take my call.
Sure.
How can I help you?
After today's speech at Jackson Hole, could we expect maybe a pullback in gold in general,
particularly in the mining companies and if looking at the mining companies, would there
be a good entry point if gold does pullback just 5%, is 10% even realistic in some of the
miners?
Sure.
Great question.
I mean, you know, I'm sure understand and all of our listeners understand because we
talk about it a lot that gold miners are essentially just a leverage bet on gold.
So any gold move, gold being an inherently volatile commodity is going to be accentuated
in any of these miners.
So a 10, 10, 15% pullback in these miners is absolutely possible.
Now, this is just a speech from a Fed share who in one breath has seemingly said, we're
not going to do forecasting and then does some forecasting, you know, this is a daily
move that you can't really extrapolate onto a larger trend.
I think when you're thinking about your gold allocations, the reason why we have been
a net buyer in these dips is because the factors that are driving gold higher, i.e.
fiscal deficits, the interests we're paying exploding on our debt, foreign governments
wanting to move away from US dollar denominated assets and more importantly, kind of wheel
away at the US's ability to do financial sanctions.
None of that is changing.
You're seeing countries that haven't bought gold and a while continue to buy gold.
So yes, we could see a bit of a pullback.
Am I going to extrapolate a trend from one speech in Jackson Hole from a guy that says he
doesn't want to forecast, probably not.
Either way, we think gold should be a meaningful portion of your portfolio given the overall
macro trends.
Thanks for the call.
Have a great day.
Hey, good evening guys, long time listener again, thank you for everything that you do.
I'm calling with regard to allocation my 401K, I have recently taken a position over
the last three months in VEMAX, Victor Echo, Max represents about 50% of my 401K portfolio.
And my question is, with the current state of the market and the probability, like we
have high interest rate hikes, do you think I should take this opportunity to rebalance
my 401K or do you think I should stay with the course and stay within VEMAX at about 50%
of my current 401K portfolio?
Looking forward to the answer, we should definitely mention you guys, enjoy the rest of your
day.
VEMAX, this is the Vanguard emerging market stock and next 50% is a little high, to be honest,
with just one fund, especially the emerging market funds, even though I like emerging markets.
But as the dollar shrank a little bit based on what's going on with the fed rate path,
that's going to be an issue for emerging markets.
I don't know what the rest of your portfolio looks like in your 401K.
I don't know what your options are within your 401K.
But here's what I would do for everybody, if you have a 401K.
As I talked about many times so far this hour, which is, this looks like a very important
market inflection point that could end up being like 2022, a big warning for the past
couple of months, that yeah, the AI hype is great and it's the momentum is feels good.
But we know that these trends end at some point and there is a trigger and the triggers
likely hawkers policy.
So everyone out there should be taking this time to reassess their portfolio, what areas
of the market are likely to inflect negatively if the fed does go into a hiking stance.
And which ones will inflect positively.
And to me, this is the time to be moving into the names, a lot of the names I've sold
off really over the past couple of months.
I've seen healthcare names that have sold off and I'm going, what is happening here?
We've had, we have a couple names are portfolio and they're down, you know, 15 ish percent
or so still outperform the healthcare space, which is saying, okay, we're still doing fine
because this is more of a sector specific issue.
But the earnings aren't affected.
It's just money flowing out of the quote-unquote safer names, the boring names and into these
hyper scalars.
And so if that flips and you're already seeing it now, I'm seeing, I'm seeing so many
names that are now rallying that had been relative under performance and we've been rebalancing
our portfolios.
We have a lot of those AI winners, a lot of the kind of nuts and bolts of AI data centers.
Those are done extremely well.
We've had some of the chip names, a lot of the big ones that have rallied recently.
We've been trimming those over the past couple of weeks as well.
This is that time you must rebalance when you see this inflection point.
So I would probably trim some of that because mainly because it's 50% of your 401K, that's
too much.
I say, this is my biggest issue with the 401K world is leaving up the average person to
just invest their money when they don't really know how to properly create that allocation.
That's one reason why we manage our 401Ks when we can and make sure they're aligned appropriately.
So yes, this is the time to absolutely rebalance.
You are listening to an Invest Talk, Vest of Caller Questions compilation program.
For comments and questions are always welcome, call anytime, 888 99 chart.
That's 888 99 CHAR T.
This is a special Invest Talk, Vest of Caller Questions compilation program.
Remember, the Invest Talk phone lines never close.
Please call with questions, 888 99 CHAR T.
Hi, Luke, we're just in this is Alfonso in the Bay Area.
Can you review the mechanics of position sizing using a concrete example?
Say, I have about a million dollar portfolio and I'm bullish on stock and it could equal
minds.
Thank you.
Position sizing is just making sure that no one position is larger than a certain percentage
of your portfolio.
And then if things go well, it's trimming it back to your original target.
So we like to limit our exposure to around 5% of any one name and a portfolio if it does
really well.
That might start to float up 6, 7%.
But then we start pushing 7, especially we want to get that back down.
We want to trim it back down to 5% or so, whatever our original target is.
And sometimes if the market shifts, you lower that target all the way back down to 23%,
maybe the limit position if something major changes.
That is the essence of position sizing and making sure that your target allocation is
aligned with the overall trends in the market.
Because it's easy to set an allocation, it's more challenging to update it regularly
and monitor it.
Okay, today's allocation and a year from now's allocation should probably be different
because the market dynamics are going to shift and you have to be willing and able to make
those adjustments.
So that's if you are being a bit more targeted with your allocations, as opposed to just
being a index investor, right?
That's what we do as professionals.
We are constantly monitoring the macro environment and then adjusting our target allocations and
it probably won't change dramatically in one year, but at the margins most likely will.
So hopefully that helps give you some insight on position sizing.
Let's move back to the Invest Talk voice bank, you know the number 888-99 chart.
This is Dan from Walnut Creek.
I've got a question with regards to ETFs.
I was thinking about the financial ETF, but I think that's kind of an uncertain environment
right now.
It's had a nice run, but I'm not too sure.
There's something good to get into now.
So second, maybe you'd be better to get into health related, medical related ETF.
I'm looking at different ones, so there's XLB, VHD.
biotech with the IPB, or maybe pharmaceutical, one like XPH.
If you can give me some input on which you think would be a good ETF to get into, I'd appreciate it.
Thank you very much.
That's a great question.
I think people often try and time sector rotation in a way that they leave themselves fully out of individual sectors.
So I don't think it's ever a great idea to be fully divested from a sector's importance financials.
I think there's always places that are stronger within any individual sector compared to other parts of it.
I think that insurance with higher rate boosts and investment income and premiums reprised annually and the fact that they're a bit recession resilient.
Insurance ETFs can be solid.
I think exchange and market infrastructure plays that profit from volatility in both directions.
They have different return profiles, big banks, wider net interest margins.
But you know, you have some risks there and then the ones that I probably would most likely not want to be near right now, Fintech, high rate sensitivity.
I also think that healthcare is a good place to be.
It has and was one of the sources for a long time of money rotating into tech.
We've seen a bit of a turnaround there.
There are pharmaceutical names that are really well. There are medtech names that have done really well.
Life sciences names that have done really well as we see shifting in consumer patterns.
So that's to say, the answer to the question is, is, is at a high level?
I think there are great opportunities once you dive into the individual sectors such that I don't think completely leaving out financials or healthcare at any time is a wise decision for your portfolio.
Thanks for the call.
Let's go pivot to another voicemail question now from New York.
I just have a question about shorting the stock versus buying puts on the stock.
I know that both bearish sentiments, but what is the fundamental difference between these two and why would someone do one versus the other which one is more profitable, which one is more risky?
Just wanted to understand this more.
Thank you so much. Have a great day.
This is a great question because there are different risks here involved.
So with a shorting the stock is your selling it today and you're hoping to buy a back later at a lower price.
You're borrowing it from the broker.
You're selling it today.
You're hoping to buy a back later at a lower price.
That's the simple mechanism.
The risk there is that it could go up indefinitely.
There's no limit. There's no limit on how high it can go.
So you can get short squeezed out of it.
If it keeps going up, you're going to lose a ton of ton of money.
Maybe you short it at $50. It goes to $500.
You lose 10x of your money.
They're not you shorted, right?
That's the potential now. That's very rare, but that could happen.
So that's number one for short selling.
When buying a putt, the good news about a putt is you have very limited downside.
Whatever you paid for that putt, that's your downside. You could go to zero.
But the odds if we go to zero, going to zero are fairly high.
Most options expire worthless.
So depending on what strike you pick and expiration and all of that,
you could certainly lose your principal.
But you can make a ton, right?
If you said it stocks at $50, you buy a 40 strike putt and it goes to $20.
Well, you made $20 on that print, whatever premium you paid.
Because you go basically sell it for $40 and buy it for $20.
The risk, though, is what is called faded decay.
But over time, the time value, you lose money on.
With shorting a stock, you never have to worry about that.
There's no time decay there.
You can hold that short for as long as you want, as long as you're not squeezed out of it.
So I like the idea of buying a putt, but you want to give it time.
You actually want to buy a lot of time probably six months to a year
plus for your thesis to play out.
And then there's let kind of leverage involved there.
So different risks, but I like the way you're thinking of which one is best for you.
So do a little more research and figure out what makes sense for your portfolio.
You are listening to an Invest Talk best of caller questions compilation program.
Your comments and questions are always welcome. Call anytime.
888-99 chart. That's 888-99-CHAR-T.
Call anytime.
888-99-CHAR-T. Hi, this is Greta from Palm Desert.
First of all, thank you so much for your show.
Question about investing in industrials.
So right now outside of my IRA and my 401k,
mostly my investments are in tech and energy
and there may be a growing momentum in terms of industrials.
And if I am looking to just make some small investments in industrials,
where would be a good place to start?
Thanks so much. Keep doing what you do.
Well, it's a great question because oftentimes people don't realize
really how under-diversified they are.
Now for you, you have a lot of exposure to tech and energy.
And right now those two things are heading in the opposite directions
because of structurally what is happening.
But the core of this, how to invest in industrials,
I think is a really important question.
For most people, the best way to invest in industrials
is first to have their primary exposure
be a broad-based industrials ETF.
Why? Because it touches on a multitude of companies
under a multitude of themes for us.
However, we think that any time you look into a specific sector,
if you're diving in deeper than that broad-based index,
broad-based ETF, you want to think about
really what are the best themes within that individual sector.
So for industrials, it's a pretty wide sector,
probably wider than you'd think.
Realignment, European Realignment,
global defense is a good theme,
AI physical infrastructure, grid modernization,
reshoring, automation, these are just a handful of themes
that are likely to drive this sector forward.
So to sum it up, for most people,
if you have the bulk of your allocation,
be that broad-based exposure,
but from there, maybe dive into these specific themes
within that sector that are likely to be the drivers
of returns into the future.
Thanks for the call.
Let's keep things moving and rolling
another listener question now.
I wanted to buy it both this summer.
My family loves it, and I like to listen.
I know it's not the greatest investment,
probably the worst, but I did it anyway.
My fees with equitable are a little higher than I'd like.
Would I still be able to transfer that 403(b) to somebody else,
even though I took out a loan on it?
I don't really know how that works.
If you have any information, I'd appreciate it.
I'll be listening on the podcast.
Thank you.
The simple answer is no.
You have to pay off that loan until you,
or before you can transfer that 403(b),
see how it happens with 401(k),
any of those workplace retirement accounts,
because the basically that loan is collateralized
by that account.
No.
Could be wrong.
There are a lot of unique circumstances
than the 401(k) retirement world,
so I would talk to your HR department
before I get a, you know,
you have a final decision on that,
but the point is, I've never seen it,
where you can transfer these retirement accounts,
403(b), 401(k), etc,
while they're still loan attached to it.
I'll stack a fresh listener question
from 888-99 chart.
Hey, invest talk.
Just to have a question about saving for a house.
Currently, I have a brokerage account
that has about 90 grand in it,
and I have 70 of it in short-term treasuries,
which is SGOV,
and then I have another 20 in VT.
I wanted to keep my, you know,
obviously my money is as safe as possible,
and I know the short-term treasuries are a great way to do that,
but I didn't know if like all of that
should be in short-term treasuries,
or if I should be taking a little bit of risk with it.
I probably have like a two to three-year time horizon.
I know the housing market is going to go through
a little correctional period here.
I wanted to get your opinions
of what I should do in the meantime.
Great. Thanks.
Bye.
Yes, let's attack this fruit from multiple angles.
So first, housing market is going to go through correction.
Maybe. I mean, there's early signs
that were starting to transition from a seller's market
into a buyer's market.
How houses are staying listed for longer.
Prices are falling.
Could you, in the next two to three years,
move into a position where you're better off than before?
Only if housing prices fall, right?
You need to bring new capacity online, which takes time.
But I mean, rates probably aren't going to budge much.
So your only hope here is that housing supply opens up
either from new homes or existing homes.
that come onto the market and you're actually sold.
But I do agree, things are starting to open up a bit.
Now, the next thing you got to think about
is what is your time horizon?
You mentioned two to three years.
We actually answered a question on Tuesday
about how one might want to think about this.
But the other part of it that I don't really think
we talked about is how much money do you need?
If you are close to your goal,
then certainly you can take on less risk
if you're further away from your goal.
In order to meet that goal,
you might need to take on a little bit more.
And that doesn't mean, hey, let's take all my housing money
and throw it in microcap chip names.
But it does mean taking on more meaningful risk
in order to raise your potential for higher returns.
Here's another question that you need to answer.
Do you have to buy this house in two to three years?
Are you doing this as an opportune thing
or is this a necessity?
If it's a necessity,
then you really need that money to be available.
If we can push this out to four or five,
wait for the housing market to come back,
that gives you more ability to take on a risk.
So this is a deeply personal question.
We actually talked with one of our clients about this today.
This is something we advise on for clients as well.
So if you have a specific situation
where we can really dive in deeper,
I certainly encourage you to sign up for a portfolio review
because knowing everything about your financial situation
is one of the inherent requirements
before giving you an answer
and how much risk you should be taking in your portfolio
to reach not just this goal, but any goal at all.
Thanks for the comment.
This is an Invest Talk best of color questions
compilation program.
Call anytime, 888-99 chart.
That's 888-99-CHART.
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It means we invest alongside you
through our parallel investing approach.
When we recommend an investment for clients,
one or more KPP principles,
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This is a compilation program,
but the Invest Talk voice bank never closes.
Call anytime with your questions, 888-99-CHART.
All right, why don't we drop in a fresh voice bank question
from 888-99-CHART?
- Hello, Invest Talk, Yenik from Denmark.
I'm looking at adding some goal to my portfolio's
following your advice on an all-with-a-portfolio strategy
that I'm really keen on working on.
So thanks for that advice in my last call.
Now I'm looking at physical goal versus owning stocks
that sell goal or profit from goals in some way.
So take a look at PPFB, ISHER's physical goal, ETC.
What's the difference between owning a stock
within the goal industry or an ETF that consists of physical goal
because there's a small fee for owning an ETF.
So at the moment, I'd rather hold some goal stocks
as I continue on my way to creating the all-with-a-portfolio.
So thank you for your show, I'll be listening.
Thank you, bye.
- So it sounds like what you're actually asking
is whether or not you want to invest
in a physical goal holding ETF
or a company that is a business that profits from gold.
Now the way it was phrased,
it kind of sounded like holding physical goal bars,
but I don't think that's part of your question.
So we'll talk about these gold ETFs
and also talk about gold stocks
and a little bit of the differences.
Now for your physical goal ETFs,
you have or rather they have gold bars
that are sitting in a vault, right?
You own the metal itself.
It moves one to one with spot gold.
So if gold is up 10%, the ETF is up 10%.
There's no management risk, operational risk, no dividend,
it can't go bankrupt, you can't have earnings misses.
It is the simplest possible gold exposure
when you're looking for gold is really pure insurance.
Gold is an asset class or gold is a hedge.
Now the cost you pay for this is this management fee you mentioned.
Some of them are a bit more expensive,
some of them are far less expensive.
But if you think about it,
it is essentially paying for holding physical gold
without having to store it yourself.
That's really what this management fee is for.
You should really think about it as.
Now when you're owning a gold stock,
which for most people is a minor streamer
or some of these royalty companies,
you're owning a business that profits from gold.
You're not owning the metal itself.
And just like any business,
you're going to have operating leverage.
You could have a situation where gold's up 10%,
and the miners up 20 or up 30 because costs are relatively fixed.
So any increase in gold prices
is going to have a multiplicative effect
on the revenue and earnings of those companies.
But volatility and leverage works both ways.
So if gold is down 10, you're down 20, you're down 30.
These companies can pay dividends.
They also have operational risk though.
There are all the time you have labor strikes at mines.
You have mining accidents.
You have permitting delays.
You have cost inflation.
You have legislative regulatory risk.
And so owning these companies are a bit more volatile
than owning the asset class,
which is already inherently volatile.
But they can also be mismanaged.
They can have bad acquisitions, cost overruns,
things that destroy value even as gold moves higher.
And so I would say if you want portfolio insurance,
not just to trade, if you're hedging against inflation,
currency debasement, if you want zero company specific risk,
right, if you're looking to have a core gold allocation,
that's kind of where you would own a physical gold ETF.
Whereas if you're bullish on gold
and you want amplified upside,
if you want some income, again,
'cause physical gold pays nothing,
if you're comfortable with the higher volatility
and higher risk, then that's when you'd want to own
a gold stock.
Either way, I think getting gold exposure,
some gold exposure in your portfolio,
certainly in this type of environment,
is a good way to go.
Thanks for the call.
- Let's keep things moving and play another,
listen to a question now.
- My question is about using stop orders
to lock in profits
and just protect my portfolio in general
for market so-offs.
Are there any rules that someone using stopovers
when selling any drawbacks of a strategy?
Thanks, love the show.
- Thank you.
Well, first time I would probably say,
I would like a trailing stop,
which means that as the stock makes new highs,
you're gonna move up that stop.
And you want that to be different for every stock.
Because of 5% pullback in Apple,
sorry, let's say Procter and Gamble,
is more extreme than something
like a 5% pullback in Nvidia,
which can happen in any given day.
So make sure your stops more long aligned
with probably a moving average,
usually when a stock's in an uptrend,
it's holding a particular moving average.
That might be the 58 moving average,
it might be the 100 moving average,
whatever that moving average might be,
that's where you probably want to keep
put the stop or a little bit below that, right?
Maybe the moving average minus 1%, something like that.
A lot of times it'll hit the moving average,
go below for a short period of time and then rally.
So that's to me the better type of stop
that you're gonna set for a name
is use technical levels.
And once again, that's gonna differ
depending on what company you're talking about.
- Invest talk is ready 24/7
for your finance and investment questions.
- My five year old son and I listened to your podcast
every night, so thank you very much for putting it on.
- Justin Klein is here and ready to tackle your questions.
- Is it a good idea to sell your losses in a Roth IRA
and just use whatever you have left
to reinvest into better stocks?
- Wondering what you thought about this read
if it would be a good time to get in.
- I wanted to pick your rainbow apples.
What do you think about their earnings calls?
Is it a good time to pass to my position?
Don't forget to call Invest Talk, 888-99 sharp.
- All right, let's take a look really quickly
at this YouTube question and it says,
it's a breakdown on how inflation erodes portfolios.
Great question.
So the question says, can you please do a breakdown
on how inflation erodes your portfolios
and the importance of compounding your
over your inflation rates with your contributions
even when the amount exceeds the max contribution limits.
Thank you for all you teach, awesome.
So, you know, I think that people often
think about their returns, right?
Your portfolios are turning 810.
but inflation is three, meaning your real return is closer to four, closer to seven,
you know, and it's not simply the eight minus three because of the compounding.
That means that nearly more of your gains than you realize are being lost here.
Because at three percent inflation, something that costs you $100 today,
costs $181 in 20 years, $243 inflation compounds just like your returns do.
And so the real key here is you need to focus on maxing those areas of your portfolio
because you have to fight against the compounding of inflation.
And a higher inflationary environment contributing more is even more important
than an environment that we saw in the 2010s.
Let's go pivot and answer a question that came in via our website.
So as long time listener, first time question, article in Wall Street Journal seems to say
some big tech earnings are house of cards as it includes unrealized stock investment gains.
How can one spot that? What reported earnings numbers do not include those ethereal earnings?
Well, this goes back to making adjustments in the footnotes.
This is some of you learn in when you get licensed.
But understanding how adjusted the footnotes.
There are something called adjusted earnings where it's that's a non operating earnings.
So that's what I'd be looking at non operating, sorry, operating income.
So excluding non operating income, you could look at operating free cash flows well.
That's another way to weed out whether it actually is real earnings or cash from operations.
If you look at the cash flow statement, for example, that's where you want to see continue to grow.
So if I look at just look at cash from operations 130 billion now that continues to go up.
But we know that cash from investing activities is deeply negative.
Now at negative 139 billion. So that's going the other way.
So those are those are the kind of the line items I'd be looking at on the income statement.
And the cash flow statement.
And that would give me a clear picture of the real earnings trajectory.
But yes, there are, I wouldn't say it's complete fugacy.
I would say that it's just something that you have to account for.
And I do agree that we are probably near peak earnings.
The question is, is it level out of these growth levels?
Do you see some sort of major deceleration or is it minor?
The market can chop around and empower through it eventually.
If it rolls over on earnest, this is more of a one-time flash in the pan.
Well, yeah, I think more downside is to come.
Got a question for Justin or Luke?
You're the best person to ask it.
Is it a good idea to sell your losses in a Roth IRA and just use whatever you have left to reinvest into better stocks?
Invest talk is ready 24/7.
I would really appreciate if you could give me an NP point for a company called Metronik, M-D-P.
Call Invest Talk, 888-99 Chart, or post your questions on the Invest Talk YouTube channel.
Let's go answer one more call a question.
John here from Lakeland, Florida.
My question is that, is it better to take a loss and sell the stock before it goes to zero?
Or is it better to allow the stock to go to zero?
Or doesn't really matter either way.
Just trying to figure out the best way to recoup as much of my losses on these stocks as possible.
I hope I made some sense here.
Look forward to hearing your insight.
Well, you know the best way to make up a loss is to take that capital and put it elsewhere.
This is one of the biggest flaws the average investor has in their psyche.
The psychological thing.
We all want to get even.
We never want to crystallize a loss.
There's always that hope that it will turn around.
But that's not how good investing works.
You need to make sure your capital is being deployed effectively, consistently.
Not sitting there wasting away in a stock that's just not performing in a company that's not performing.
So if you're down, you don't wait to go to zero.
You say, okay, it's down.
Something change is the business.
Maybe the market is telling me something that my thesis was wrong or something changed about the business.
And I need to move on because there's something called opportunity cost.
This is the case for everything in your life.
Every second of your life, you have your experiencing opportunity costs.
You're doing one thing.
You could be doing something else and that's the same with capital.
You have money stuck in something that's not doing well.
There are opportunity costs of that you can go take that money and put it elsewhere.
So that's how you make it back.
You don't just sit there hoping and praying hope is not a strategy.
Taking that money every deploying into something that's actually working is.
And that's what you need to do.
Take the loss.
Hopefully it's in a taxable account.
You can take the loss.
You can offset that against gains elsewhere.
You can maybe carry for $3,000 a year to offset your income.
For example, however, ends up for you.
But the bottom lies, no, you don't just wait.
You don't just let it waste away because you're wasting the opportunity elsewhere.
Sell it, move on.
It's okay.
It doesn't mean you're a bad person.
It doesn't mean that you suck the best investors in the world.
Make mistakes.
They lose money on certain investments.
That's how this works.
Until you realize that you won't be able to maximize the capital that you have.
On radio, on YouTube, streaming live on AdVestTalk.com.
My question today is about HIV equipment services.
And for our podcast subscribers, if you're willing to take the risk, invest talk.
If you're okay with that risk, with host and financial advisor Justin Klein,
and that volatility, go for it.
And go host and portfolio manager Luke Guerrero.
This company's following like a rock, it's down 52%.
Invest talk.
Everybody wants to secure a financial future.
Richard, you have a question about TOL.
But getting there takes strategy, discipline, and the right information.
What do you think of the price of it?
Go to Chris in Maine looking at I-E-X.
Hey Justin, I own it.
You just see what you thought of it.
Invest talk is made better by listener contributions.
So don't forget to call 888-99 chart.
Good morning.
This is Randy the Iowa Trucker.
Just have a quick question about grip, dividend reinvestment program.
I know that the situation has changed from time to time.
So I just like to update what is your current advice or recommendation for anybody interested in reinvesting?
Or should they let it go to the sweep account and focus it on a particular part of their portfolio at the time?
I hope that made sense.
You have a great program.
Thank you very much.
Dividend reinvestment plans.
That is what a drip stands for.
And what that means is that when a dividend hits, it will automatically buy more shares of the same stock or in the case of an ETF of the same fund.
Now, compared that to a sweep, that is where dividends land in a money market or cash account, where you as the investor will decide what you want to do with it.
Now, the case for a drip is it is essentially going to be compounding on autopilot.
It is automatic dollar cost averaging.
That is effectively what a drip is.
It removes the temptation to spend dividends. There are no commissions or transaction costs when you have those reinvested shares.
And so if you are a long-term buy-hold investor, it can make a lot of sense if you wanted to own more of the stock anyway that you would buy it through this drip rather than buying it with cash from the sweep. It is that didn't forget it. There is zero effort required.
Now, the flip side, why would one want to put in a sweep?
Well, more control.
For a rebalancing tool, you would buy more of an over concentrated position, tax management, right? Do drips create dozens of times you tax loss at different cost bases.
And cash sweeps right now are paying some pretty sweet juicy yields in the current environment with money markets paying four and five percent.
I think there is less urgency to immediately reinvest frankly.
And any time you do get these dividends, although again, it's great to be set it and forget it automatic dollar cost averaging. I think you're missing out on opportunities elsewhere.
So right now when rates are higher, I think the case of being in drips is probably lower than it has been over the past decade. Thanks for the call.
Your comments and questions are always welcome call anytime 88899 chart. That's 88899 CHART.
This is a compilation program, but the Invest Talk voice bank never closes call anytime with your questions 88899 CHART.
Let's play a new listener question now from 88899 CHART.
Hello, Invest Talk. This is Bernie Junning from Denmark going again. I have a question about which sector.
This point, I'm already overweight or exposed to goal.
I also have a lot of oil.
I have listened to your thesis that in the fall there may be some,
what is the called, the market will go down perhaps as it usually does in the fall.
I'm here, you say the bonds right now isn't a good idea as very dalio suggests.
Could you guide me as to which sectors for small investments say $2,000 at this point?
I should look for because I'm anticipating a kind of going down in the market on the short term,
but I can't seem to find other than gold and oil this year.
Do you agree that this is so, if you have any thoughts, I'd be very happy.
Thank you very much.
Well, I can tell you the sectors that we're focusing on, materials which is kind of within the gold and silver,
but there are many others, talk about copper all the time, that are also attractive over the long term.
So I like materials in general, so I'd probably broaden that out.
Now the energy is patched.
I said this before, I'm not, I think that there is near term.
Well, I'll probably go higher because of the quagmire that we find ourselves in in the Middle East,
but I don't find that to be a great long term place.
Meaning I'm talking about like oil and gas, EMP companies, things like that.
I'm going to try other own pipeline companies, refineries, alternative energy type of businesses, etc.
But then outside of that, industrial is an easy one, very easy.
We're still economy is still growing, there's a lot of government spending,
there's a lot of demand for industrial products that go into AI data centers,
there's going to be secular demand for that as well as maintenance products,
for those data centers as well, so industrials, industrials, industrials.
Also, like I said, health care, health care I think has some good tailwinds.
But I'm not a big fan of utilities long term, they're their bond proxies and bonds aren't doing well.
They're also relatively low returns long term because they kind of,
there's a limit on their profitability due to regulation.
Defense consumer staples also been struggling a bit in the bits of inflation,
also bond proxies.
Consumer cycle also has been struggling as the kA ship economy continues to plow ahead
until something breaks there.
But yeah, so that's a materials energy, or sorry materials, industrials and health care
would be the places I would be focused on.
Every investor is working to build a secure financial future.
So this be an opportune time to get into annuities.
Everyone's situation is different.
Get your thoughts on CRM Salesforce.
And so are their questions.
And I was just calling for your assessment of Blackstone Incorporated.
24/7, Rain or Shine.
Invest talk is made better by the power of you, 88899 chart.
So if we got plenty of time, maybe a question on ETFs?
I just had a simple question about how best to analyze an ETF to decide whether or not to buy.
I get some of the ratios you want to look at for individual companies,
but some of them don't directly apply.
So I'm wondering what translates and what doesn't into analyzing ETF would love to,
if you guys answer, look forward to it.
Sure.
So, you know, I think you can't really look at ETFs through the same lens of how you look at a company
because ETFs are generally more diversified ways to invest in some sort of asset class.
Maybe you want small caps.
Maybe you want the aerospace industry.
Maybe you want software names.
And so the way that you should be looking at whether or not an ETF is one you want to invest in,
there's a multitude of things.
You know, there are companies like Morningstar that give them grades, which are good.
But you really need to dive in and understand what those ETFs are investing in.
So if I'm looking for a small cap, US small cap fund, the SAP 600,
which is, calls itself a small cap index, has a lot of mid cap exposure.
So if I purely want small cap exposure, that's not where I should go.
Your question should be how good of a job does and this specific ETF do,
at attacking the asset class or theme or what everything I'm trying to invest in.
As number one, number two, do I understand what it's doing?
Is it a black box of investment?
Does it do a good job describing?
Is its investment strategy sensible in how it's attacking that asset class?
And then also a really important thing as well.
How much might it be in charge for this?
If you're investing in US large caps,
you shouldn't be paying more than 15/20 basis points if it's broadly diversified.
EM 60/70 basis points.
Understand the different asset classes demand different costs?
All of these things are critical to know when choosing an ETF.
Thanks to the call.
Invest talk is a trademark of KPP financial.
Because of the nature of the interactive dialogue inherent in the format of this program,
it's important for the listener to understand that not all comments made will apply to them.
Specifically, nothing said she'll be taken to be investment advice,
or shall statements on this program be considered an offer to buy or sell security.
Because such advice is rendered solely on an individual basis,
and at times will require that the investor review a prospectus before investing.
Invest talk is a copyrighted program of client,
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A registered investment advisor firm, which retains all rights.
For more information regarding KPP's investment advisors,
call 1-800-557-5461.
Thank you for listening,
and your comments and questions are welcome on our 24-hour listener line at 888-99-Chart.
[Music]
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
Forex trading is highly risky and requires deep understanding of currency flows and technical analysis; novice investors should avoid it.
Gold remains a strong long-term hedge due to rising fiscal deficits, debt burdens, and global dollar weakening, though short-term pullbacks in miners are possible.
Portfolio rebalancing is crucial during market inflection points, especially when facing potential rate hikes, with overexposure in single funds like VEMAX being a red flag.
Position sizing limits exposure to no more than 5% of portfolio per asset and adjusts dynamically based on market shifts and risk tolerance.
Gold ETFs offer pure, low-volatility exposure for portfolio insurance, while gold stocks provide amplified upside but come with higher volatility and operational risks.
Shorting stocks carries unlimited risk due to price spikes, while buying puts limits downside and requires time for the strategy to work.
For small investments during market downturns, sectors like materials, industrials, and healthcare offer better risk-adjusted exposure than traditional bonds or utilities.
Investors should avoid over-reliance on earnings or non-operating income and instead focus on free cash flow and underlying business fundamentals when evaluating companies.
Summary:
This Invest Talk compilation addresses key investor questions on forex trading, gold, portfolio allocation, and risk management. Forex trading is deemed too risky and complex for beginners, with strong emphasis on technical analysis and currency dynamics. Gold is viewed as a vital hedge against inflation and macroeconomic instability, though gold miners may face sharp pullbacks; investors should maintain a core gold exposure via ETFs for stability.
A major takeaway is the importance of regular rebalancing—especially in light of potential rate hikes and market overexposures like in emerging market funds or single-sector holdings such as VEMAX. Position sizing is recommended to cap individual risk at 5%, with dynamic adjustments based on market conditions. For defensive investments during market downturns, sectors like materials, industrials, and healthcare are highlighted as more resilient than financials or utilities.
Risk management strategies such as stop-loss orders and trailing stops are advised, with a clear distinction between shorting stocks (unlimited loss risk) and buying puts (limited downside). The program also stresses the importance of evaluating companies beyond earnings, focusing on free cash flow and operational fundamentals. Finally, it emphasizes that no one-size-fits-all strategy exists, and individual financial situations—such as retirement account loans or time horizons—demand personalized advice.
KPP Financial reinforces that accountability and transparency are central to its approach, and listeners are encouraged to seek free portfolio reviews for tailored guidance.
FAQs
No, forex trading is highly risky and not recommended for beginners. It requires deep understanding of currency flows, technical analysis, and market dynamics. Most novice traders lose money, and experts advise focusing on hard assets instead.
Yes, gold miners can experience pullbacks of 10% or more due to their leveraged exposure to gold prices. A 5% pullback is possible, but gold miners amplify volatility, making them riskier than pure gold exposure.
Yes, you should rebalance, especially if you have a large allocation to one sector like emerging markets. Market shifts, such as rising interest rates, can negatively impact certain assets, so adjusting to reflect current macro trends is wise.
Position sizing limits exposure to any single stock or asset to a set percentage (e.g., 5%) of your portfolio. It protects against large losses and ensures your portfolio remains aligned with market trends and risk tolerance.
Insurance and healthcare ETFs are recommended. Insurance ETFs benefit from recession resilience and rising rates, while healthcare is strong due to shifting consumer patterns and long-term demand.
Shorting a stock has unlimited risk if the price rises sharply, while buying puts has limited downside (to the premium paid). Puts are safer for bearish bets and work best when held for months to allow time for the price to move.
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