Bessent: "I Am The House"🚨Oil Is Exploding

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Make sure to get a three-card set. So you've got a backup. But you guys, of course, can use our link down below. It's going to give you a 10% discount. And they also have several offers from time to time. So always check what's going on over there on the website. This is the self-custody to use. So make sure and check it out. I want to actually start, though, with a clip today. And this will kind of get some frame around what is actually happening in the market. Here is Secretary Besson. Take a look. Whenever people say, oh, well, Treasury Secretary is taking a risk, I say, wow, it's my dream. I have asymmetric information. I am the house now. When we intervene with the Japanese yen, I have pretty good insight into what the Japanese, what the Bank of Japan is going to do, what Japanese policymakers are going to do. Bet against me if you want. At once, that raises a lot of uncomfortable questions, not least of which is going to be the fact that is the BOJ is independence compromise here, if he already knows what they're going to do. All right. So you can see this is a little bit of shockwaves in the market in general. Stern drew kind of drew a little bit toward this. And the statement here is that Besson just triggered the biggest GameStop moment ever. Treasury boss just lit the fuse under a trillion dollar yen squeeze, which could play into this if his insight is real. And Japan suddenly tightens or intervenes. The the unwind, of course, could be very violent. One wrong move here. Trillions in cheap funded yen positions get crushed. And I think that is where it boils down to the last statement, which is it's a warning shot that Washington thinks it has the upper hand in the U.S. Japanese monetary chess game. So this, I think, is in a position right now where the market could be looking at this and also where the U.S. could intervene. The real question is why. And I'll show you a clip on that. But I want to jump over to Mark Cudmore because he had a statement here that I think is going to actually happen. Take a look. I think he's right in what he says. I just don't know why he's saying it. I think that he's he's kind of waving the red rag to the bull of the market. And I think that, you know, the market might be tempted to test him, even though it's right. He does have he has more tools at his disposal. He has more information. He is the house and he can ultimately read the game. But he might be forced to show that they're going to pick the market's going to pick their moment. But he's he's you know, he's really kind of taunted. Taunting the market. He's intervening both in the the the FX markets and Treasury markets. These are big markets. And I think that when the data goes against him because the structural flows are against him, the fiscal pressure continues to mount. The inflationary pressure continues to mount. So they'll pick their time and then they'll go go on, then show us what you got. And he might ultimately have more tools. But he's made it very messy and hard for himself. He should have just silently taken his victory and waited till people realize and applaud him. And instead, I think he's made a big blunder. OK, so big blunder. And let me know, do you guys think that Bassett maybe is overstepping his boundary here? And will this actually affect how we are going to see the Treasury deal with this? And I think this is the whole issue right now. Even Burry came out saying the last real hedge funds left are now building positions specifically to take on Scott and his whole bet on the yen. So if you've got some of the best hedge fund managers out there, which is now going head to head with a former hedge fund manager. Maybe this is just timing or is there something else afoot here? That's the question I think that I'm looking at. Is he crazy like a fox or is he just pushing all of this into a fight that just was not needed? Here is, of course, the short positions right there on the Japanese yen. They remain near the largest in history. You can kind of see this is the retail estimates right now in terms of the Japanese retail over the counter. This is a problem because, again, to our point earlier, the amount of historic volatility that this could cause is real, especially if this plays out all according to what Besson's thinking it might do. Other things that, of course, are happening right now is remember this happened back in August where the Treasury announced the size of the nominal long in liquidity support that they were willing to go into. At the time, the current maximum size was around two billion per operation. That'll be at least four billion per operation. So when you look at the update right here, you can kind of see the buyback is now six billion bonds with a 10 to 20 year remaining until maturity on September 10th. So all this is in play well above what it was doing on the two to four billion playing out there. Now, let's start with another clip here, because this will go into a little bit of why is Besson intervening? Did he really need to do this? Take a look. So I think some of its perception management. And of course, what's interesting is that, I mean, the yield curve is not even that steep. So again, like, you know, no major volatility issues, no major liquidity issues and not an actual steep yield curve. And yet they have intervention just because the interest expense is super high. The public perception around it is not great. This is also a Treasury secretary that kind of made getting the 10 year lower one of his initial goals, explicit goals, which is not going the direction he wanted. And so, you know, they're intervening. I don't think they have to intervene right now, but they've they've made a choice to. And I think that's the point right there is they've made a choice to do this. So what would be impacted in the markets? There are several analysis out there that kind of lean toward commodities. Here is Cudmore kind of going in a little deeper. I think we're an incredible commodities bull cycle. What we've seen over the last 13 months has been has been phenomenal already. But there's much more to go because it's both a demand and supply issue. There's an investment demand issue because policy doesn't have credibility. Fighting inflation doesn't have credibility about its fiscal problems. And therefore, there's this idea of this debasement trade, but essentially it's a moving into real assets and away from the major fiat currencies. So that's the investment demand side. But there's real world demand side. There's the air revolution, which is driving demand for some commodities. Then there's also the climate change was also driving demand. And then there's the general global rearmament because U.S. has undermined long term alliances. And so we're rearming all around the world. And all these things drive structural demand for commodities. On top of that, we've got supply side issues because of the wars in the Middle East and Russia, Ukraine. And they're some of the big providers of both fertilizers, refineries, energy. So it's a demand and supply story. It's going to go much further longer term. And therefore, we've got much more pain for bonds to come, even despite what we've seen already. All right. So to cut more as point. I mean, I think when you look at commodities, it's kind of in the area that we talk about a lot. Gold is most likely going to be one of the lineups here. Some of you may be out there invested in energy. We'll talk about oil in a second. But right now, gold trading at forty four eighteen, the next move up is probably going to be somewhere in the forty four seventy range. If that is the case, then do we see gold do another spike into the five K range? So I think this is one to watch. Of course, silver will be in the in the play as well, along with some other metals to kind of keep an eye on. And then, of course, you'll have energy playing into this as well. So let me know if you guys are are actually making commodity moves right now with everything that is in the macro pressure window as it is today, would commodities be your bet? If you look at another commodity, Bitcoin, crypto markets now seeing massive inflows. We saw the largest ETF I bit move. So maybe institutional is also following up on this. And does Bitcoin get another light under it in terms of a move? So big news here so far in September. New users get thirty dollar coin packs for just ten dollars. All the table games you love with hundreds of slot games and real cash prizes. That's at SpinQuest.com, S-P-I-N-Q-U-E-S-T dot com. SpinQuest is a free to play social casino. Voidware prohibited. Post another four hundred fifty nine million in inflows following a three billion dollars in August. So largest monthly inflow that was since October of last year. So a lot happening around around Bitcoin. One hour later, U.S. oil is now pushing ninety six dollars a barrel. That's that's a forty four percent increase since July 2nd. You guys will remember that Trump has been on his campaign trail out there saying that oil is going to be lower come midterms. And the reality is that this may not necessarily be the case with midterms just around the corner. And now you have, of course, JP Morgan, excuse me, Goldman Sachs pushing toward oil targets at around one hundred $120 a barrel, if that were to occur, $120 a barrel, That is a demolition derby for the Republicans. Here was Besson talking about where it should be. Take a look. Look, we are successfully executing the plan. We think that we can have very high noninflationary growth. And we're going to get on the other side of this Iran conflict. And I expect that oil will come down. I actually think we're going to be very much oversupplied in the oil market after this. You know, we could see a $50, $40 crude maybe just because there's so much coming online. All right. So I don't know what or where he was talking about oil coming online. If you look back into July, this is just the month of July, August, and here we are early September. Oil is up 40%. And it has, of course, hit the breakout zone. And we're in a position now where if we continue to see pressure mounting, especially in the Middle East, is $100 really in the next window? And if it is, what does that do in terms of long-term effect, especially leaning into midterms? And at that point, I think we do see some issues that start to maybe impact the market even further. All right. So when you look at the issue, it really boils down to the Strait of Hormuz. And there's a lot of weirdness in terms of information that's coming out. Because many people think that it's open. Some people think it's closed. Well, here's the energy secretary. Talking about the safety of the Strait. Take a look. August was the deadliest month for merchants in the Strait of Hormuz since March. Can you unequivocally say that ships that want to transit through the Strait of Hormuz can do so safely? We're working cooperatively with fleets that do want to transit. Some ships are transiting, and, of course, that's their choice. But you're not saying that it's currently safe? We're getting a lot of ships through, but, of course, it requires the U.S. military to do that. If a country or a company wants to send its tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, can they do so safely? Well, if they want to work with the United States Navy, I think they can. You said on this show five months ago that high gas prices had peaked. Isn't it possible gas prices could go up even more? Well, if you look at, look, I don't want to have an opinion on that. How can you be the Energy Secretary and not have an opinion on gas and fuel prices? This is the problem right now, guys. We are setting up for the $100 a barrel just after the latest Middle East attacks. This is going pretty much hit for hit, and now it's getting into actual oil production facilities as well as tankers. All of this plays into, I think, where the market is simply saying that's enough. This is impacting. Energy worldwide, it is going to start to make, I think, a bigger moment, especially on the political front for both the Republicans and also Trump himself. All right, so one other point here on the Hill article is where they're talking about the investments that are happening within the market around energy. They are voting with the dollar, and this vote strongly indicates that unless the Strait reopens and oil starts flowing again uninterruptedly, supply will not be aligned with demand in the foreseeable future. So this is a huge issue for the Republicans, a big issue, I think, also for the Trump administration to continue to put a lot of pressure on the American people when it comes to oil prices and, of course, gas. Now, all of this is starting to boil into maybe a different strategy that is being undertaken to possibly find a way to lower gas prices. Watch this clip. The Trump administration has changed blending requirements for American refiners, which allows them to produce more gas. Gasoline, just as demand for gasoline is about to start heading down. New York, Connecticut, California, and several other Democrat-governed states have decided not to adopt those standards. They apparently want to keep driving up prices on their residents. All right, so what he's talking about there is actually a blending process that's being done in fuel and especially around gas. Essentially, this means dilution. So the idea is. Dilute the fuel so that you can actually lower the price. This is the kind of issues that we're dealing with right now. Some states, of course, are already in this. Look at the kind of raises that we have seen in 2026, which is significant when you look about the issue right now of just fuel costs in general. So I want to kind of go from this to clarity. I know this doesn't bridge well, guys, but when you see this ad, maybe you'll understand. Take a look. Consumer prices are up. Groceries, gas. But for the big banks, it's a feeding frenzy. They're raking in record profits, almost $300 billion last year alone. How? By squeezing consumers and small businesses. But now they want even more. They've unleashed D.C.'s corporate lobbyists to prevent competition and protect their profits by killing the bipartisan Clarity Act. Tell Congress, pass the Clarity Act now. All right, so again, as you can see, that, first of all, I don't understand what that has to do with grocery and gas prices as it correlates to Clarity. It is a big bank issue. I don't know where these things are coming from in terms of marketing. There's been some bad marketing when it comes to trying to get Clarity passed. But you have to look at where the current market is right now, and that, of course, is being led or has been led by Cynthia Lummis out there. And her statement is, if this bill fails, it won't be because of ethics. It's going to be because the Democrats didn't join Republicans. Republicans, in embracing a bipartisan bill that protected consumers, cements Americans' leadership in digital assets and so forth. This is the challenge right now. I think a lot of people are kind of fed up with the fact that these Republicans have, in fact, failed if this does not even get a cloture vote. And I'm not sure that it's going to. And you can kind of see people are getting a little upset. I didn't get to pump my Bitcoin back up with the Republicans, had the White House and both houses of Congress because of Democrats. You know, basically, let's blame everybody. But our selves that are out there in control right now. And that has been kind of the issue right now. Unfortunately, the Republicans may take one on the chin if this does not go through. How does this play into what the Dems strategy will be for the fall? Still yet and up in the air to see. All right. So I want to go to a clip here because this is this is kind of throwing salt in the wound in the sense of Republicans almost admitting that they've given up on this. And there's no immediacy on trying to get this done. Take a look at this one. Well, we're only going to be we're only scheduled to be there three more weeks and we don't work all week. Should we get this stuff done? Should we stay? Absolutely. Are we going to? I'd be surprised. But if we if we want to win in November, we're going to have to start acting like we care about the cost of living in this country. All right. So wait a minute. Acting like we care about the cost of living or just doing something about the cost of living. The fact that you don't work all week might be the first indicator that you should work a little bit more to try to actually do something about the cost of living. And that's the problem that we're in right now, guys. But does this affect the market? Well, the market, you've got to look at a couple of things. Fear and greed right now hovering back down to 72. We have had these kind of pumps in the market before. And just be cautious out there, because back there in November of 24, we had that big market push. And in a very short period of time, you can see where that market came in just less than three months. I think it was February, where we had dipped down all the way to 20 in the market. So these are the kind of things. I'm not saying that that's where we are heading. I still feel that the worst is behind us. But with this macro pressure continuing to drive into the market, there's going to be some unusual situations occurring. Now, everybody probably saw our video yesterday. We did the laptop video. And that's because in most cases, you guys are out there kind of in that position. Eric Trump, of course, tweeted about this. Hunter should go back to painting. But. In reality, this hit $395 billion in terms of where this market cap was going. And, of course, a lot of people are pointing at this, that everybody got wrecked on this. I'm sure there's going to be some that did. But in reality, there were also a lot of players that made it in. But the point is, is that now we're seeing maybe a consistency on this one. I'm not. Again, this is a meme token. As you guys know my stance on meme tokens, I don't invest in them. But it's interesting to me. Because it's culture inside the crypto community that it's very unique. All right. So here is a tweet of how the I think the industry and maybe the media has taken it. Hunter Biden's laptop meme point plunge 97. Remember, almost all meme points plunge like this. This happened in the first hour, falling from nearly 200, 200 bucks down to 436. It's trading, I think, around 180 right now. Uniswap liquidity became the active only after the token had already fallen more than 90 percent. So. It was interesting to the point in a sense where, remember, what the goal was, was to airdrop Trump token holders that were underwater, go out and support the community on Substack, which there apparently was a certain amount that had went actually to Substack members. One other point that I want to point out here is you'll notice this statement right here. It's fully diluted values is around five billion, only five billion. So this is the thing, guys. When you look at the launch. of meme tokens, it is almost impossible to get over hundred million. For this to do that, that in itself was a huge success. The other thing that we pointed out yesterday was that base would end up not being able to do this appropriately. And it ended up being true because Uniswap ended up being the liquidity plan for it. So I think this is a scenario that will continue to play out in crypto. There's going to be opportunities out there to be able to really connect with the crypto community, whether it's the DJ community or not. The point is, is there's going to be a lot of opportunities for this for companies like Coinbase and others to be able to achieve. So understand, remember PolyMarket, they actually had to go in and create additional markets for this once it had hit one billion. So now we've got the 1.5, the 2, 3, 4. We showed this yesterday on screen and these weren't even in the PolyMarket at that time. So just in very interesting times in terms of where the market is, timing on clarity. Whether it's going to make it through or not, likely not. And now you've got Republicans in a very big hot seat going into a midterm, which all plays in to where the markets are going to go. We're going to be covering it very closely. Hey guys, Lady Luck here. I just love the fall season. Crisp mornings, pumpkin spice latte, and it's the best time to cozy up and play SpinQuest. 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