Ben Shapiro's Warning To The GOP & A Major First Amendment Showdown | 11.5.26

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It's Thursday, November 5th, and this is Morning Wire. ♪♪ While Democrats enjoyed sweeping gains on Tuesday, several conservative amendments were also big winners, including even in deep blue states. And the Supreme Court signals it may side with religious schools who say state laws discriminate against them. Colorado has already lost three First Amendment cases before the Supreme Court, and I think the court is just building on that precedent here. Thanks for waking up with Morning Wire. Stay tuned. We have the news you need to know. ♪♪ One of the easiest ways to save time during a busy week is to automate the little things. Whether that means ordering groceries, scheduling household deliveries, or handling two errands in one trip, saving a few minutes here and there can make a real difference. We all have our own time-saving hacks for everyday life, but if you're a business owner, how can you save time hiring ZipRecruiter? 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It's a very big deal. I mean, it's a very big deal for a couple of reasons. One, when you have a sort of moribund state party, and then suddenly you're in the governorship and you have a Senate seat, that all kicks right into gear. And already you've seen extraordinary amounts of money that are poured into Texas to follow the Democrats. Now you're going to see just a flood of Democrat cash go in there. The other thing is that the Hispanic vote in Texas, which is an increasing percentage of the vote in Texas, was moving very steadily in a Republican direction in prior elections. And it has moved totally opposite here. You've seen a massive shift away from the Republicans in Texas among Hispanics. That is completely a reflection of dyspepsia with the Trump administration. And obviously the Paxton campaign and the Abbott campaign really paid the price. Now, you've made the argument that both parties have misinterpreted these results, and continued down the same problematic paths. What mistakes do you think Democrats are going to make, and what mistakes do you think Republicans are going to make? I think they will take this as a mandate to do every crazy thing they ever wanted to do, because both parties have a tendency to do that. You win an election, and then you think, "I can do whatever I want." And I think Trump did that in 2024, and it didn't end well for him in 2026. I think Democrats are likely to do the same thing. They'll push forward some sort of bill for Medicare for all. They will push to defund ICE. They'll push to defund DHS. I think all of that will backlash on them. I do not think that that is a good idea. The mistake that Republicans, I think, could make here is to essentially say that this is a one-issue election, that we don't have a deeper problem. We actually—if we just fix this one thing, then everything goes away. Obviously, the one that people are focusing in right now is the Iran war, because that would be the easiest to just end. And that gives Republicans, I think, a sort of false comfort in the idea that, "Okay, well, if we just turn that off, then everything else would be hunky-dory from here on in." There's a much deeper and much more abiding problem for Republicans than just that. And the way I summed it up on my show today is I said that the Republicans lost because of basically three things in combination: unaffordability, chaos, and corruption. That's what this election was about. It was those three things. And you put those three things together, and you end up with a complete bloodbath. As you say, if it was just unaffordability, Republicans would have lost. But if it's unaffordability, a feeling of chaos, and the corruption, you layer all those things in altogether, and what you end up with is a blue tsunami. Finally, we're already starting to look ahead to 2028, and we are seeing some buzz. You know, this has been building for a while, but it's kind of dramatic how much you're seeing people kind of plant flags already. Where do you see this going? Is Vance a shoo-in or not? Is Rubio going to run? What are the signs so far? I think it's very unlikely that Marco Rubio runs. He's a very risk-averse politician, and the math really doesn't game for him, meaning that if he were to run, number one, we should say that whatever happens among the Republican candidates, 2028 is obviously an uphill battle for Republicans now. The president has a low approval rating. We are now looking at a map in which a bunch of red states are turning purple-y, and you're talking here about Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, maybe Texas, right? I mean, you're talking on the outside at a map in which Democrats have a shot at 380-plus electoral votes. I mean, that map is not an impossible vote. And so if you're a Republican, you're looking at that going, "Do I really want to even, like, go into this?" If you're J.D. Vance, that thought might occur to you, but you're vice president, and you're basically the anointed one. And so you don't have a choice but to sort of throw your hat in the ring, I think. That's not true for Rubio, who could simply wait it out, wait till next time. He's still a relatively young guy. I think you'll see some other folks, like I think Ron DeSantis will throw his hat into the ring. Ted Cruz? Ted Cruz will certainly run. I don't think any of that is a foregone conclusion. I'm not sure it's a foregone conclusion that Vance wins the nominee. He's obviously the favorite coming out of the box, but there are a lot of steps between here and there. Yeah, indeed. Ben, thanks so much for taking the time. Thanks so much. Here's an interesting health story. There's been growing research around weight cycling. 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Voters in some of these purple states like North Carolina and Ohio emphatically rejected their state's Republican ticket, but then voted to approve Republican priorities through ballot measures, particularly on election security. In Ohio, a state that just elected Sherrod Brown to the Senate and then Amy Acton to the governor's mansion, both Democrats by large margins, two-thirds of those same voters actually approved Issue 3. That was a ballot initiative that writes a photo ID requirement into the state's constitution for voting. That means that regardless of their success tonight, Democrats cannot touch it without a three-fifths majority in the state legislature, and then it would just go back to voters. North Carolina was an even worse bloodbath than Ohio for Republicans, We saw Roy Cooper, who's going to win the state's open Senate seat there by about 20 points. Democrats also likely to flip at least six House districts there, thanks to riding his coattails. But voters still went and approved a ballot measure that would expand voter ID to every form of voting, including mail ballots, with about 60 percent of the vote on that initiative. And they also voted to cut the state's cap on income tax in half from 7 percent to 3.5 percent. And then you have Kansas. They approved a citizens-only voting amendment, 64 to 36 percent, while simultaneously voting to unseat Republican Senator Roger Marshall. Voters in Arkansas, South Dakota, West Virginia, and Alaska all passed similar election integrity measures. So that's eight states right there that approved significant election integrity measures, again, which have been a key Republican issue. Not popular among Democrats, you would think, but they were voted for last night. And we also had some ballot measures related to trans issues. In blue states and purple states, how did they fare? Yeah, more good news for the GOP on this front. They've made trans issues and protecting women's sports and women's spaces a huge issue. And voters rewarded them here. The biggest story comes out of the state of Washington, where ballot initiative 638 would keep biological males out of K-12 sports. It's currently leading 57 to 43, with about 60 percent of the vote counted. In Washington, it's still early, but this would be just a historic result in a deep blue state. Wow. First time that voters anywhere approved a sweeping statewide law separating boys and girls K-12. Every other state with a law like this on the books has had it passed through a state legislature in states that Trump won. But it could very well happen for the first time in one of the most liberal states in the country where voters push it through. Arizona and Nebraska's versions of this similar measure are also going to pass with overwhelming support. And Colorado looks like it'll narrowly pass as well. Colorado also has another ballot measure banning trans surgeries on minors that is slightly lagging behind its companion measure. But prediction markets. are still pricing it at a 90 percent chance to pass with 80 percent of the vote in. So again, Colorado, Washington, not red states passing, you know, pro-traditional gender initiatives here. So it sounds like voters are pretty decisively against this trans stuff, and that's now been shown. Any other measures across the country that stand out to you? Yeah, one comes down in Florida. That's probably the only competitive state where you can honestly say Republicans mostly held their ground in statewide elections. Governor Ron DeSantis there has credited. a lot of these ballot measures that he's been pushing for months to get Republican voters to the polls. The state just passed one of the largest property tax cuts in history with 62 percent of the vote clearing Florida's 60 percent threshold to seal the measure into law. That law will raise the homestead exemption on property taxes to $150,000 in 2027 and then a quarter million dollars in 2028. And then here in our home state of Tennessee, voters also passed a ballot measure banning the legislature from imposing a property tax in the future. And Idaho voters rejected an effort to overturn. The state's abortion ban. In Idaho, they also had a measure to select the state's official gun. And there are still a few big ones that are up in the air. Another Colorado amendment that would scrap the state's flat tax in favor of a California-style bracket system is ahead by one point with votes still being counted. The state's Democratic governor opposed it, and there's still about 20 percent of the vote left to be counted there. And then finally, in California, the controversial billionaire tax, Prop 40, is actually down 56 to 44 with about 60 percent of the vote counted. That is a big one. It had a lot of business owners watching very closely. And then let's throw one more in. Alaska. Voters there are once again voting on potentially repealing their controversial ranked choice voting system, which caused a lot of problems with the decoy Dan Sullivan on the ballot this year. But that attempt to repeal that system is trailing 52 to 48 with 73 percent of the vote in. Well, always fascinating to see what voters think when they vote directly on issues. Cabot, thanks for reporting. Absolutely. The Supreme Court heard arguments this week on a case. A case that could set a precedent on states blocking funding for religious schools. This case, St. Mary Catholic Parish v. Roy, challenges Colorado's exclusion of religious schools from its universal preschool program. Here to discuss is Jim Campbell, chief legal counsel of Alliance Defending Freedom, which has filed amicus briefs on behalf of a Christian academy. So first, Jim, can you give us a brief synopsis of this case and what's at stake? Yeah, this is a really important religious liberty case before the Supreme Court this term. This case is all about whether the government can create a program and say that it's providing funding for private education, but refuse to give it to religious schools. And so over the last three years, the Supreme Court has decided lots of cases like these. And it keeps saying over and over again that you can't exclude the religious groups and the religious schools and the religious families when you create programs like this. But what Colorado is trying to do with its universal preschool program is trying to come up with a new way of excluding. And that's what we're trying to do. We're trying to come up with a new way of excluding. The Supreme Court has to decide, is it going to allow Colorado to do that, or is it going to hold Colorado to what it said in these last decisions and require that these programs be open to people of faith? So the court heard the arguments on Tuesday, Election Day, no less. What are your strongest takeaways from oral arguments? I thought the arguments went really well for the religious group and the religious families that brought the lawsuit. Kavanaugh raised the number of concerns that he had. He specifically said that it really looked like the state of Colorado was not treating religious organizations the same because it was excluding them according to its desire to operate consistent with their beliefs. And Justice Gorsuch also raised a lot of concerns. He specifically said, haven't we decided cases like this in the past? And isn't Colorado trying to get around what we've said? And so I do think that the defenders of religious liberty, had a great day in court. Now, this relates, and you kind of alluded to this, to the other Colorado cases that we've heard about in the news for years now. For example, the Masterpiece Cake Shop case, also in Colorado, you helped litigate that. Are there overlap arguments between that case and this one and some precedents that could come into play? Definitely. Colorado has proven itself to be no respecter of the First Amendment. Over the course of the last 10 years, Colorado has already lost three First Amendment cases before the Supreme Court, and all three of those cases were litigated by us at Alliance Defending Freedom. And I think the court is just building on that precedent here, and the court has recognized that the state of Colorado has hostility towards the First Amendment, and hopefully, once again, Colorado will be handed a loss before the High Court. Now, what was the state's argument for why they shouldn't give money to these schools? So, the state created what they call these non-discrimination requirements, and it said they require the schools to sign off on these various requirements in order to participate in the program. But the problem is, is that the state allows exemptions from those requirements for a lot of secular groups, but it's not allowing those exemptions for religious groups. And so, again, it's treating religion worse than other groups, and the First Amendment does not allow that. Well, potentially a huge case for education that we'll hear the results from this spring. Jim, thanks for coming on. Thanks so much for having me. Thanks for waking up with us. Plus, some exciting news: Confession is hitting theaters on November 11th at 7 p.m. across the country. You can only get your tickets on dailywire.com. And we're giving out one free ticket to our All Access members, but you have to claim it before the seats are filled, so act fast. To enjoy the show ad-free and join our mission, become a member at dailywire.com. 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