Becoming a Best Ball Bro: Leaning Into Injury Risk?
56m 8s
The podcast discusses the evolving landscape of fantasy football during the early NFL season, focusing on injury risks and strategic drafting in best ball formats. Key players like Jordan Tyson, despite a persistent hamstring injury, remain viable due to their talent and the potential for a quick recovery, especially with the Saints’ offensive system. Several other players—including Caleb Douglas, Jacobi Lane, and Malik Washington—are rising in value due to camp reports and improved visibility, though their draft decisions depend heavily on cost and injury timelines. The conversation emphasizes that early-season drafting is a time of high risk and opportunity, where drafters can exploit undervalued players due to injury delays. Injuries to starters like McCy Lemon and Luther Burton create market shifts, allowing for aggressive value picks at lower prices. The hosts stress a balanced approach: while best ball managers should avoid overcommitting to injured players, they must also not completely dismiss them due to sudden recovery potential. Late-round value is increasingly difficult to assess, as draft boards react more quickly to real-time reports. Strategic considerations include game stacking for playoff success, but with caution to avoid predictable combinations. Ultimately, the takeaways center on risk management, value timing, and adaptability—key tools for navigating an unpredictable season where injuries, player health, and team strategies constantly shift.
This is an I Heart podcast guaranteed human the new NFL season is here. And you should be listening to NFL daily as we march along to Super Bowl 61. It is in the name NFL daily. You'll have fresh content in your feed every day all season long. That game winning drive, maybe it's Herbert, maybe it's Gino, maybe it's my homes. We'll have the highlights. If Fernando Mendoza or any of the rookies are balling out, we'll break down the tape. Join me Greg Rosenthal and an all star cast of co-host as we preview and recap every game. Listen to NFL daily on the I Heart radio app Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Brett Coleman and I'm Trevor Sikama. If you love football and want to understand what's really happening on the field, check out our show NFL bro. Every week we break down the biggest plays, trends and matchups using exclusive next gen stats insights and NFL content. You will not find anywhere else. Whether you're new to football, a fantasy football fan act or a die hard fan, NFL pro will help you analyze the game like a pro. Listen to NFL pro on the I Heart radio app Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. First it was Ricky Pierce all done for the year. Then it was Luther Burton with a groin injury. Then it was a mecca Bucca with a toe injury. McCye lemon hasn't practiced in weeks. Jeremiah love as a high ankle sprain breeze. Hall's banged up Jordan Tyson's out for a couple months with his hammy that he can't get right. But hey, Rich, hey, at least we got some good CLV with Keenan out. I'm JJ and over the last couple of years, I've been doing everything I can to be a best ball, bro. And last season, things finally fell into place. I got 40th in the draft King's Millie contest, taking home $20,000. Maybe I became the best ball, but I'm still looking to learn more about this game. And I still want others to come on this ride with me. So even if you consider me a best ball, bro, this could be your year. This could be the year that you officially become a best ball, bro. This episode is sponsored by draft Kings. We've partnered up with draft Kings again this year for best ball. And we've got a can't miss offer on their biggest best ball contest ever. $20 million in total prizes. It's draft one, get one draft. Your team wants no weekly line of management and your top scorers start automatically each week. All season long, download the draft Kings daily fantasy app and sign up with promo code. Late round enter a line up in the $20 million best ball contest for $25 and get a bonus ticket for a second entry. Two shots at the title draft one, get one only on draft case. The crown is yours. Welcome into another episode of becoming a best ball, bro. I'm JJ Zachary's and joined as always by Rich Ryan Rich. It's going on, buddy. JJ, my wife and I were sitting down last night, watching some Netflix, watching four seasons. Shouts to Steve Carell. Everything that guy, good, good. Everything that guy touches is gold. And I get the notification that Keenan Allen has signed with the Indianapolis Colts. And I fist pump so hard. It was like, what are you so excited about? I'm like, my guy JJ had a rough one today and I'm glad he ended it with a dub. I needed, I needed something to, to happen favorably because man, it feels like every, especially wide receiver that I've talked about in the draft guide that I've been drafting a decent amount of has gotten hurt at some point. You know, now we have this lingering toe with a mecca Buka. The big thing though was Jordan Tyson. I actually, you know, I was looking at my best, but I'm overweight on Jordan Tyson, but it's not as much as it could have been because I'm pretty high on them. Just as a player, as a prospect, all of that. And yeah, I mean, like, let's just talk about that right now because I think it's the big news with best ball at the moment. I think that Jordan Tyson is still draftable. You know, I know a lot of people are going to just take him off their board because of the injury. And look, of course we knew that this injury thing was a thing with Jordan Tyson. You know, I wrote about it in the prospect guide. It was a reason why I had him in the same tier as Carnell Tate. Otherwise, if there are no issues at all, he was technically a better prospect in my eyes. Like, he would have been a, a tier above and, you know, camp over the last few weeks. I know it's just camp, but my gosh, the hype with Jordan Tyson was really there. Nick Underhill is one of the best beatwriters in the country, let alone the best for the Saints. And he was saying that Jordan Tyson, at some point this season, had a very real chance to be the best player on the Saints roster. He's not one to just say things like that. He's a very, you know, a thoughtful beat reporter. And it just goes to show how well Jordan Tyson was performing. And so I felt good about the talent evaluation part, the obvious part that was, you know, the issue at Jordan Tyson as a prospect and the issue right now is that he's gotten hurt. Now, I will say, I think that like the broken collarbone that he had is just not a, a, a deal that I, I think has anything to do with this at all. Maybe you could say that the ACL that he suffered a few years ago could be, you know, a part of this and why this hamstring thing has seemed to be lingering because he suffered the hamstring last year. He dealt with it during the draft process. And then obviously they're saying that this is disconnected. This has nothing to do with, you know, any of that. I think that's probably BS. I mean, it's, you know, your body all functions as one. It's not like you have these independent muscles do, you know, that don't touch each other. But that being said, and for the record, I'm also parroting what smart people like Jeff Mueller on Twitter, you know, a PT is saying about this. With that being said, I do have the general stance that players are injury prone until they're not. And, you know, we do this all the time with players and it's very hard when football's not being played. And there's not as many like storylines going on and such to not dive all in to this one story line and like over and flayed it in a way within your mind. But I'm trying to not do that. Obviously I have priors. I think Jordan Tyson is a phenomenal prospect, right? So, you know, take this with a grain of salt. I still think he's draftable because what if he does get it right? I drafted Jordan Tyson last night in one of the hundred dollars. I finally got that to fill because they have a three entry hundred dollar tournament. And I got my third entry in and I got Jordan Tyson in the one forties last night, which to me is certainly the best the, the right kind of risk reward when I went pretty wide receiver heavy early. And so I knew that, you know, they could have coverage early in the season while Tyson's out. And then the question is like, what if he gets right? You know, this is not a, it could end up being a zero for sure, but so could a lot of players in that range in general. So I don't want to, you know, overstate what that really means. But the way I kind of see it right now, you know, I really like Casey Conceptsion. I liked him a lot as a prospect. I thought Conceptsion was in the same tier as McKay lemon when they came out. When a lot of people had, you know, lemon sort of a tear above. I think Conceptsion's a really good player. You know, Tyson should still be drafted behind him probably in that like, you know, after that, like, Coker, Romeo Dobbs, Jaden Higgins apparently is banged up. We just learned that right before we hit play here. So I record here. So understand that that could be changing. But right after that tier, I think is where to advertise and kind of belongs. So, you know, it's a, it's a risk tolerance thing. You, you, you got to do what you feel most comfortable doing. Now, look, I mean, the season starts later this year. So this could be like, he could be playing as soon as week four or five realistically. I don't think that's going to happen. I think they slow play it and, you know, I'm, I'm hoping they can figure this out. The way that, you know, I mean, another good example of this idea of players are injury prone until they're not as Christian Watson, where it seems like no one's really talking about his hamstring stuff simply because he had a second half of last year that was brilliantly good and he didn't get hurt. And now no one's really talking about this. But that's what I'm saying. Like this kind of thing can shift in an instant. I'm not dismissing it at all. I think it's a very real thing. I'm just trying to be level headed or as level headed as I can be. And to me, I think in that, like, I mean, if you can get them in the 140s, that's great. But, you know, after that, like, group of wide receivers and the best ball environment go for it. I think in a season long environment, I know there's a best ball show, but in a season long environment, you can even go a little bit earlier because obviously you're not taking zeros and you can drop the guy if you want to and pick up someone else. Or better, yeah, if you have an IR spot, you can just smash. So, you know, it's, it's really bad news for, for Tyson. And it's bad news for anyone who probably listens to my content. You know, this is a risk that we took on. And it's something that, you know, came to fruition. I just hope and pray that, you know, the end of the season, we look back and Jordan Tyson is still a beast of a wide receiver and he's really productive in the Saints offense, which I think he was going to be really productive in the Saints offense. But this is the way it goes. Sometimes the fantasy football, you take risks, sometimes they work out, sometimes they don't. Let's hope they work out more than they don't. That range that you've identified does feel right. The next receiver going off the board is Rashid Shaheed at the top middle of the 12th round. I still think that's kind of coin flippy. I think you and I are both interested in in Shaheed. You he's one of your higher exposed players. But then you're talking about Denzel Boston, Jalen Nailer, Malik Washington, Jalen Nailer and so zero chance. I'm taking Jalen Nailer over Jordan Tyson, you know, like I just, they're, or even like Malik Washington. There's just not those just aren't the guys that, that I'm going to get that excited about. I also think again, like you should be looking at what your build looks like earlier on. I think that I could, I could actually talk about something I wanted to talk about on today's show, which is like, you know, think about what the early season means and how different the landscape looks in the early parts of the fantasy season versus what it's going to look like in the fantasy playoffs or, you know, week 10, week 11, keep in mind.
that if Tyson's out the first five or six weeks and of course he could come back and get hurt and you know, things can still go on. I'm not saying that like he comes back and then he's never going to get hurt again. That would be crazy to think that. But the nice part is is when these guys have injuries that are bumping up into the season, you know, we have a lot of guys like a Mecca, Lutherburden. I mean, Breast Hall just got banged up and it doesn't sound that bad. Those guys are have timelines that are like pushing right up into week one, right? And Kenyan sediques another one where seems like he's getting better. But and they're saying that he's going to be available week one. Who knows what what ends up happening there. But the thing that I think that best ball managers should keep in mind, at least what I've been telling myself. And this is through, you know, talking to people over the last couple of years and kind of learning this game a little bit more. It makes a ton of sense too. It's that in the early parts of the season, there's no bi weeks and everyone's healthy, right? So again, I told you about that team that I drafted yesterday where I got Jordan Tyson, you know, in the one 40s. I think I had carnal Tate as my wide receiver five or something like it was a wide receiver heavy room. And so that I went with or maybe four and then I got another wide receiver in the middle rounds. But regardless, it was a good wide receiver room. Like I'm going to stay browns on it. Devante Smith's on it. I think I got a wide out in round four. And so I sat there and I said, okay, you can I can take on Jordan Tyson a lot more easily right now because I might not even he might not have even found my lineup the first five or six weeks of the season, you know? And then it's not until players break down by week start happening that you really need to think about that and worry about that more. I think in general too, I'm in this place where I'm trying to not be so hyper focused on these players that are banged up right now. Like I know there's the mantra of like, you don't want to draft injured guys. Everyone's going to get hurt at some point or has the risk of getting hurt. You don't want to start, you know, and like like being delayed or start from behind with some of those players into the fantasy season. But you're getting discounts, man. Like there's a big difference between those guys staying at the exact same price and those guys not, which is exactly why I am mega overweight right now, Rich on like Kenyans Cedique, for instance, right? Where he go. I've gotten him in like around 18 at times, right? Like and literal dark throw territory. We're going to be shocked when we look back at this season because it happens every single year. And you look at the players we are drafting in around 18 and the amount of zeros that are littered through our lineup from those players because they're just not doing anything. Maybe they give you one, you know, usable week. I have a hard time envisioning a world where Kenyans Cedique doesn't give you at least like two or three usable weeks this year. You know, as long as he's healthy to some degree. And I know that's the big question mark, but you're getting him at such a discount in comparison to the other players being drafted in that area. So like, you know, I think it's a little bit different when you're talking about same tier players, like I haven't really been touching a mecha Buka as much. I have enough of him. And I don't want to, you know, I'll gladly just take Zay flowers over him or, you know, or Devante Smith or even Jalen Waddle. I think you can go with even though he's a little bit banged up. He seems healthier than where a Buka's at. But with late round guys, especially it's a lot easier to just take that on. So like, I remember last year, a good example of this is Devane Chan was really banged up or seemingly, right? He had that like calf injury or something like that. And I had not drafted much Ollie Gordon throughout the summer. I was on the Jalen right train, like into July. And then I just stopped drafting backup running backs from Miami. I had a lot of Devane Chan last year. But then the the HN injuries happening and it's lingering. And I'm like, Oh man, I got to over correct and just draft all of this Ollie Gordon without really thinking about like, what is the true bowl case for Ollie Gordon, right? And then in hindsight, of course, it was a terrible pick. Like all of those rosters I had with him, you know, we're not as strong. And I can say that a lot more confidently right now, given how like the last year's season was good. You know, it's a little bit more difficult whenever you have a bad season than you made those stupid mistakes. But you know, I'm trying to not overthink that aspect of things because generally it's actually not as bad. I think anecdotally as people make it seem. And again, I mean, best balls, a playoff game, right? Like you're trying to advance, of course, but there's other players that can help you advance. And you want to have, you know, good talent and just monster monster teams as you get into the playoffs. Yeah, caution is okay. The other example from last year that I remember is Matthew Stafford and the back injury and the question marks that we had around the not just Stafford himself, but the Rams pass catchers as well, where there was some sort of discount baked in there because we just didn't know the status of Matthew Stafford and the Rams are just being extra careful with with an older player. I've said this before, just specifically, my information is that they're just slow playing all of these injuries. I think he had his helmet on today. Yeah. Yeah. And it's just what's the point, especially with soft tissue leg injuries? What's the point of having these guys sprint and run around in August when we have an 18 week violent gauntlet that is coming to us in a couple of weeks. So yeah. And again, the Pierce one where teams are giving you a timeline and those timelines aren't being met. That's when we should sound the alarm and ring the bell. And like Jordan Tyson is a sound the alarm situation. Like Jordan Tyson is a very scary situation where he's got he's had this bad hammy and it just keeps popping up. Alec Pierce is a very scary situation where he hasn't been practicing. You see clips of him like still limping a little bit. And then the team goes out and signs Keenan Allen. I mean, like, could it work out? Sure. You know, are there some drafts where I might get them? Maybe. But you have to have a pretty big discount because there are more obvious signals and signs that it's going in that direction. And then there's some teams like Todd Bowles is one of the worst when it comes to injury stuff and trying to figure out where things are at there. With that being said, I think it's pretty clear now that we know it's a turf toe thing for a buka. And that's something that can linger a little bit. I wrote about that in the draft guide last week. So, yeah, I mean, overall, I'm trying to take a case by case, but understanding that, you know, teams are going to slow play things. I think they did that with like Devon H&N last year, for instance. But when there's like a very clear indication, I think Pierce and Tyson are the two that are most obvious here. When there's a very clear indication, that's when we should be really adjusting our priors a little bit and thinking about these players a little bit different. All right, I'm going to get into a couple of other things. I've found that late round picks right now are becoming pretty difficult to navigate. Now, I've been sort of like auto-clicking Keenan Allen so much that that's why that was a really nice, you know, end of my day of him at least finding a team. I'm not even expecting Keenan Allen to dominate, but I mean, the dude has seen good, good target shares and his past couple of spots, you know, amongst like relatively decent competition overall in Chicago and then with the chargers. And now I would argue competition is weaker overall. I mean, Tyler Warren should get his Josh Downs. I'm still excited about. But overall, you know, clicking Keenan Allen in round 19 over and over again, I think is a W overall. But, you know, Cyrus Allen, Caleb Douglas, Pat Bryant, those players have risen up draft boards quite a bit. And it's just difficult to really have a ton of conviction about round 18, round 19, round 20 players. And I think that if you're feeling that, I just want to shout that out that you're not alone in feeling that. Have you experienced that too as you're drafting in the in the very late rounds? Yeah, I was going to say I feel like I'm pivoting back to some of my early summer ideology of winning doubt in these later rounds. Just leave a spot open for tight end and just click guys that we know the 12 revolution and the heavy formation meta. We know that's a thing in the NFL. Now we have Darren Waller even signing with Carolina who becomes a reasonable enough dart towards the ends of draft. So yeah, I'm just leaving room for some tight ends at the back end of my roster. And that's just a very comfortable click for me for guys that are just going to be on the field and scoring points. Yeah, agreed. And like even like Michael Mayer types will still go in the 20th round. And I think he's going to have some usable weeks. And then he obviously has contingent upside. If Brock Bowers, please, please, please don't. But if Brock Bowers were to get hurt this year, the tape was off today. The tape was off today. He like put duct tape on and then everything got better. You know, that was the with his PCL. But yeah, I agree. I think that the tight end stuff is very relevant and real that you know, you don't want to necessarily like reach on. I've had a really hard time draft without a stack drafting a player like Hunter Henry, you know, where I'm like, I know I can wait at tight end. I don't think he's going to be a difference maker necessarily. And if it's not in the stack, I'd rather just wait. You know, I can't say the same. I'm still drafting Terrence Ferguson in around 15, even though he's gotten steamed up a little bit. The two tight ends that I'm going to have the most exposure to more than likely are Terrence for definitely Terrence Ferguson and then probably sedique. Like I was saying before, just because his price keeps falling and tumbling. But I'm trying to not overthink this of a mid first round, Uber athlete tight end, who's very young, incredibly young, had pretty tough competition in college. And his age adjusted production profile was at the very least, slightly above average. But I think it was just above average in general, right? In a tight end friendly offense too. Frank Reich's offense has been historically really tight and friendly. I'm just trying to not overthink that. So I'm still going after those like sexy names in the in the later rounds of drafts at tight end because I think that that's just what you should be doing at tight end year in and year out for the most part. Depends on your roster build depends on that construction. But it's been the direction I go, and I think you can still take four. I mean, we've said that sort of all offices.
mayor pick, though, I still think Michael Mayer is just like like he should probably be going around or two earlier than he is. I know it's the late rounds, not the biggest deal in the world, but the overall theme here is that the later round picks are becoming a little bit more difficult because, you know, on one hand, the market's reacting properly and that's looking at, you know, beat writer notes and what they're saying out of camp and they're saying, oh, I'll just draft this guy one or two rounds earlier because why not? It's the late rounds. But then also we're getting more clarity, right? Like we like now officially, not that, I mean, I did all summer to be, to be fair, but we like Pat Bryant more than Troy Franklin. There's going to probably be a bigger role for Bryant versus Franklin, which makes tons of sense because Bryant can be a very good slot player for them. And he can play out of 11 personnel. That was kind of the logic as to why I had him, you know, ranked ahead earlier this summer and was drafting him, but, you know, he's crushing it in camp. I didn't expect him to crush in camp the way that they're talking about him. But, you know, that's that's separated those players. There've been players that are separating Caleb Douglas separating from some of the rest of the pack, although Chris Bell is apparently healthier than than we all expected. So it just made it. It's offense. Dolphins offensive line. Look sneaky. Very confident. Yeah. The Dolphins offensive line is not that bad. The fear, the fear for me with like an H and is still just the past catching stuff and what that's going to look like, you know, in this offense. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I mean, Malik Willis to me is the, it's especially season long, the easiest click on the board period, right? In basketball, I, I kind of get the, but I'm still draft, I'm still just drafting him in a lot of, you know, especially three quarterback builds. Yeah. That's like the perfect QB three. I'm with you. I think that, that Miami can be decent enough. And then the other thing that I want to talk about, all of these injuries are making round six just suck. And I think it's a really good thing for what that means for back half of round one picks because when you get into the late fifth and early six, some of those guys will, will tail into the early sixth round. And so you get, before a big tear drop, you get that sixth player that the front half of the draft won't be able to get, right? That's pretty important because like the getting Jramir Gibbs, which I won't complain about draft slots too much on this show because I know it is truly random, but is it truly random for JJ Zacharyson? I'm not sure. After, you know, I'm doing like I'm like 130 millies in and I have like six Jramir Gibbs, I got like six 101s. I got a little bit more Jramir Gibbs just because I've gotten them at 102 sometimes. But regardless, having that advantage, especially at the two three turn where now Malik neighbors is there and you feel better about him. And I think it's a nice advantage for, you know, to even things out a little bit more for the back half of round one. I felt very lucky today, I was in the 104 in a millie and Karnel Tate, what I got him in the six. It seems like I'm really high on Karnel Tate. I think I'm actually underweight on Karnel Tate. I'm, it's just, you know, he's just popped up a couple times in the last couple drafts. But he fell, I say fell, but I got him in this in the sixth, like towards the end of the sixth. And then I somehow got Ramondra Stevenson in the seventh, which to me is just not going to happen as frequently anymore, not just because of the way that backfield is trended, but also just because of the way that injuries have piled up and all of those guys just being pushed up, right? The back half of the seventh round is, I could argue that the back half of the eighth round is better and more appetizing than the back half of the seventh round right now in ADP. So I mean, it really, really drops off. And if you're experiencing that, if you're feeling that, you're, I think you're thinking logically about this. So when I saw you put six round on the sheet, I wanted to bring up two guys. Ramondra Stevenson, the other is Jonathan Brooks. And it feels like the populace is pulling them into the sixth round because let's say they're not going borough or Drake May and they're not happy with that tear drop at receiver after like Watson to do in Zay. They're like, well, what are we going to do? And what they're doing is Brooks, Brooks, every week, Brooks stays healthy and looks good. Like he's, I mean, he's up 40 picks since we started doing the podcast. Yeah. Now in Bestball, where I think the gap between Brooks and Hubbard is too big, Hubbard's another one of those guys that we could have talked about earlier that, you know, his injuries kind of going bumping up into week one and maybe it lingered and look, I'm, I'm very pro Jonathan Brooks. I was like, my bags are packed with Jonathan Brooks. Trust me. But I'm trying to think logically like, you're now taking on a pretty much more significant opportunity. I think the only reason why Brooks is being drafted, where he's being drafted to your point is because there is this big drop off people are like, what do I do? And people are like, sure, I'll take Jonathan Brooks, why not? So like from that perspective, I can't really blame people, but when you look at a draft board and you're like, whoa, Jonathan Brooks is like a late sixth round pick right now. And like that's where he's going pretty frequently. I mean, it's, it's objectively pretty rich, you know, I can say that comfortably because I have so much ninth and tenth round. Yeah. Obviously you have 10, 10th round, Jonathan. Right. That's the way different. Right. So like, I don't need to force the issue. I think that if you need to though, you can do it still because of that drop off that we're talking about. I'd still be drafting a remandre over him. You know, I'd still want that safety. But if you, like if you go pretty running Mac Heavy and he's like your RB three or four, I don't think it's the end of the world and you're going for that upside. If he's the guy, he's the guy, you know, that you need. But again, like there are drafts where I never envisioned myself being into Chuba Hubbard this year because I had Jonathan Brooks and him basically back to back during the summer. And you know, there's a much wider gap in ADP at that point. But now it's, you know, awarded me to get some Chuba Hubbard. But again, if you haven't gotten Brooks, this isn't me being like, hey, look at my Brooks bags. This is me saying like, if you haven't gotten Jonathan Brooks, I don't think it's like a gregious to be drafting him there because there's so much ambiguity in that range. I mean, I still think going quarterback, going remandre, going Jalen Warren, that's probably better. But I get it. I can understand the logic there. I mean, the name just still screaming at me in this area is Jalen Hertz. Jalen Hertz is down three picks, I got him in the late seventh pretty frequently. You know, like he's, it's, it's pretty wild to me, especially, you know, if you look at his, his numbers last year, they didn't use him much undesigned runs. Like he had like 40 fewer design runs last year. And they're already talking about how they want to up that this year. You know, there's already been reports about that too. So. Yeah. It's not named Davante Smith. You can backstack with. Yeah. You can gamble on MacKai lemon. Like, yeah. I mean, you can get on. I mean, that's another guy who's been rising, don't have any way. So I'm still, I've still clicked because again, it's just kind of like a dead zone of players. Once you get into round 14 to 20, you know, it's still, it's still in the 150s for don't have any way. So like you said, it's not like, right. It's not, it's not the cost. I think he's going to be used to. Yeah. All right, let's get to our guest today. I talked to Chad Candles, he's a YouTube streamer on his channel at Chad Candles. This is one of the great things about becoming a basketball bro is kind of getting introduced to the best ball community, a little bit more and meeting people that probably wouldn't have met if I were only doing, you know, season long content or dynasty content or what have you. And this conversation was awesome. Chad's super sharp. We talked about preseason high, how to handle those injuries with the weird timelines, like we were just talking about talked more about closing line values from CLV talk. Like I did with Sam Sherman last week, game stacking, how he kind of approaches the week 17 stuff. So much more. It was a great conversation, great back and forth. So without further ado, here is that interview with Chad Candles. I'm Britt Coleman and I'm Trevor Sikima. Have you ever watched a game and wondered what really made the difference beyond the final score? Exactly why we created NFL Pro. Broke, got a man wide open. Touchdown, stay locked. Every week we use exclusive next gen stats insights and NFL content to break down the biggest stories, matchups and moments from around the league. We go beyond the box score to uncover the numbers, the tendencies and details that help explain what actually happened on the field. And don't worry, this isn't just a show for stats experts. We use advanced analytics to help tell the story behind the game, turning the numbers into insights that every fan can understand and enjoy. So whether you're a casual fan learning more about football or a hardcore fan who can't get enough analysis, our goal is to help you see the game in a whole new way. If you've ever wanted to know why a playwork, how a matchup was won or what most fans missed on Sunday, NFL Pro delivers insights you simply can't get anywhere else. Listen to NFL Pro on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast or wherever you get your podcasts. The new NFL season is here and you should be listening to NFL Daily as we march along to Super Bowl 61 last year. And Mike McDonald, Sam Darnel on the field after the game, but that was last year. If you're a football sickle like me, NFL Daily is your kind of show. It is in the name NFL Daily fresh content in your feed every day, all season long. Matthew Stafford coming off his MVPC on a dazzling darts from Matthew Stafford. Big time trades that shake up the NFL. AJ Brown is loose. And of course those Seahawks trying to run it back and win another Lombardi trope. The Seahawks win Super Bowl 60. They are bringing Lombardi back to the Northwest. If it's happening on a football field, NFL Daily will cover it. Listen to
NFL Daily on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcast or wherever you get your podcast. (upbeat music) - So Chad, we get a lot of like crazy hype from beat reporters this time of year. As you know, everyone's in the best shape of their life, everyone's crushing it and camp. But you know, I asked this last week and I think it's just an important thing to talk about and discuss. Like how do you manage what beat reporters are saying and what's coming out of these camps in order to not get like too overconfident in players that could be zeros? 'Cause look, there's a lot of like day three wide receivers right now that are getting a ton of love. And we know statistically a lot of day three wide receivers won't do anything. So how do you kind of balance that? - Yeah, again, I listen to Sherman's answer to this and it's hard to come up with much different. And these beat reporters get like way hyped into things that as you know, best ball players and drafters more not as excited about. And usually it's like big contested catches. Like that looks really cool and the beat reporters get really excited about it and you get that self-fulfilling. Like the players that are getting hyped in the algorithm are who the beat reporters are gonna write about because it promotes it and you end up in just like vortex of specific players. The more actionable stuff is who's running with who, you know, the sort of snap counts, that kind of thing. But again, just like players looking good to beat reporters. I mean, they're all gonna look awesome. Like you said, like in shorts and without pads. Like this is the time of the year for all that. - Yeah. - Again, just try to like focus on the stuff that seems a little more actionable than just the hype machine. - Yeah, and that's interesting too. Like I remember when I was prospecting some of these day three guys like, you know, like a Caleb Douglas was definitely someone that could just get down field and he has that ability and I'm not surprised that like he would look good. But I think one of the more interesting guys is like Jacobi Lane right now who's just getting tons and tons of steam. And obviously there's like kind of an opening in Baltimore and I get all of that. But if you go back and you watch him in college, this app model was like pretty lukewarm on him. Like what didn't say he's a smash, didn't like necessarily hate him or anything like that. You know, he's hidden early to clear profile. The one thing was that like Lane always had these like acrobatic catches. Like like one of the best at doing that in this class. And so to your point, like that's the perfect kind of, I'm not saying he's gonna be a zero this year. I think he's gonna get some run. But you know, I'm trying to not like take it too far based on what they're saying out of camp. And then obviously he does what he does in the preseason finds the end zone and you know, he's just getting steamed up every more. So yeah, it's a hard thing to balance. But I do think that, you know, it's a lot easier for these like beat reporters to say these things without it actually having as big of a deal from a fantasy football perspective, you know, in total. - The Lane stuff I'm like, I'm a little more into 'cause again, I chased Tez Walker that didn't work out. We're all in the hunt for something better than Bateman like he's on. And the fact that he does seem like he's drawing more praise than Sarat feels like maybe there's finally something to this. I don't know, they took two receivers. I don't know how committed they are to Bateman ending the year as wide as seaver two. So I've been buying the Lane stuff and with Caleb Douglas, I like that. I'm a dolphins fan. It seems like the Douglas thing is kind of real although Chris Bell just got activated, which is like way faster than I was expecting. A little bit surprised there. But yeah, those two examples, I'm buying the hype. So maybe I'm ignoring my own advice here a little bit. But the thing is though is that it all comes down to cost too in the end and to me, I don't think that they're getting so out of hand from a cost perspective that you're taking on some insane opportunity cost and drafting them, right? It's more so like I'm trying to not get them in every draft or go like that route. You know what I mean by just kind of buying into the steam. So it's a good call out though. We're getting a lot of injuries right now too. Even before we started recording this earlier this morning, now this will be out on Wednesday. So we're going to know a lot more, but like even Breeze Hall has an apparent groin injury. And a lot of these returns put these guys like at week one. You know, there's just players that like seemingly their timelines are just like at week one, we don't know what to do. So I guess my question for you from a best ball perspective, you know, obviously in season long you can play someone else on your bench and there's no buy weeks going on. So it's a little bit easier or you can manipulate your lineup if you do miss on that player. But in best balls a little bit different, you know, you're taking on these guys and you can't use the waiver wire to do anything to make up for someone who is hurt and not playing. So my question to you is, are you generally leaning into those falling values with those injured players? Or do you avoid them completely? Or do you just take a case by case? I've sort of lived by the axiom like risers don't rise enough, followers don't fall enough. And maybe that's more performance than injury. But I feel like it's still true at least some of the time. I think for the injured players, I'm a lot more worried if it's someone who is in like a training camp fight or, you know, a rookie who we think might come along later because that could really delay things. Lemon is the big example for me. I have a, I now have like a lot of concern with McKay lemon. Is he, you know, going to be ready week one? It sounds like probably not at this point. I'm not entirely sure if they're humming along, if Wix is playing well, if they're in the playoff hunt, like, are they really going to ramp him up as fast as we want? I don't know. It just seems like getting out of the gate slow for some of these guys on these competitive teams. The younger guys might be tough. The players who have more of a mode around them. I'm not worried the sort of like Metcalf and Downs. If I can get a little bit of actually Metcalf and Pittman, I think both of them are not practicing. If I can get a dip on them, I'm not really worried. They're not, they don't have any competition breathing down their neck. They're going to be fine. So I think for the veterans, I'm a little less concerned about for the younger players, I'm going to be a lot more cautious. Yeah. Makes a lot of sense. I've had a really hard time clicking lemon for the same reasons. And I mean, what could go wrong with a lot of Don Tavian Wix, right? What could possibly go wrong with my best ball season, with like 16% Don Tavian Wix, right? It feels like one of those, you're looking at a lineup that's like made the playoffs and you're like, oh, why is Don Tavian Wix on this 100%, 100%. You get a team that advances and you're like, oh, yeah, this is, oh, my gosh, why didn't I draft Don Tavian Wix? Why didn't I do that? Yeah. Another question I have, and this is one that I talked with Sam last week about, but I think it's, you know, really important to the point about injuries and getting those falling values, but also injuries that we assumed, like a Malik neighbors closing line value. Some people make a big deal out of it. I've kind of had this take where I've, I made a big deal out of it last year. I feel like I'm making lots of a deal about it this year. But if you drafted like a lot of Stefan Diggs, right? Let's say that you're at like 14 or 15% Stefan Diggs and you're way ahead of market and you got him at a really reduced price compared to where he's going now or Jonathan Brooks, obviously, because the Chuba Hubbard, just another one of those injuries that's, you know, going right up against that week one time frame. Are you done drafting those players because you know that you captured that CLV and you know that those line-ups are going to have at least some advantage with those guys? Or do you continue drafting them even though they are at an increased price? I'm definitely going to still be taking those players who have been risers. At the end, I will just have different combinations with those players for the same reason. I'm not going to avoid players who have risen that I was kind of out on. Yeah. I only had four and a half percent Diggs. I thought I had like eight to 10 percent and I'm like, well, I'm not going to not take him like I have to take him now. I'm just going to have to hope that my, you know, whatever round eight pick is better than the round 10. But you know what I'm saying? Like the different like variations you get with the players. I don't want to just say like, oh well, if I like, if I still like the player, I don't want to now start fading a player who's been a riser again going back to something I do believe is that risers don't rise enough, followers don't fall enough. I think I'm just going to get different players. And again, at the end of the day, you know, you make these finals, you know, BBM for example, I'm still only going to be playing 660 whatever people. I'm not, I'm not running a giant GPP where I'm worried that I have some kind of like huge disadvantage of the combination. So if it's a player you need, I feel like it's a player you need. I'm not going to start fading them. Yeah, that's kind of where I've come around to. It's like, is there an advantage? Sure, but at the same time, the way that these playoffs are structured in the way that this all works, it's, you know, like Malik neighbors going in round late round two as opposed to early round four or something like that. Like, of course, we would all rather have Malik neighbors in round four. But number one, if he's the guy that you need, then that doesn't really matter. Because you're getting, and you're in number two, you're getting different combinations as you noted. And those combinations are, you know, guy, I mean, we have no idea how that's going to just fall in the place, right? Like the team that drafted Malik neighbors in some of your drafts in round four or got a crazy discount on him. If you, if he fell to round five or something like that, how do we know that the rest of their team isn't littered with injured players? Yeah, they have to keep your salt. Like, you know, right, right, right. There are just so many iterations to it where, you know, I try not to like overthink that part. That's one thing that I feel like I've learned talking to people like you, too, is like, I just feel like it's overthinking it a little bit by just ignoring a player who, you know, you're doubling down on, like, if you're doubling down on Malik neighbors like that, that's just a very risky thing to do because it's Malik neighbors. Yep. And I did this last year. I was like out on Rashi rice. I was like, no, I don't really like him. I was worried about this. So I'm a lawyer by trade. I should have known nothing ever happens and nothing happened. And I got bailed out by him getting hurt. I was absolutely wrong. The fade was bad. But like, I could have had like a really, really, you know, disastrous fate on a guy, just because I was stubborn about not wanting to take him like around and a half ahead of where you could have gotten him. Yeah, yeah. You know, this also kind of like leads into the conversation of like unique combinations. Are you somebody who, and this isn't on, you know, I sent you a show sheet beforehand, just to kind of go over what we generally talk about. But like, are you a unique combos guy like you're in the beginning of your
You're at the one to turn and you just take like a late second guy, like a Niko or something like that because you'll hold fall to that side of the board then. I'm not a huge unique combos, bro. Maybe more so in the daily games, I'm more interested in that. Most of so many of the fantasy relevant players and, you know, best ball in 18 round draft are getting drafted, whereas in like the six person, six round crafts, you really can get a pretty big edge by going like a little off script. Yeah. I'll do it sometimes if I want a particular player and combo that I like. But my promise is like, you know, 100, you get 150 bullets in these large contests. You know, there's 12 draft slots is the one time I do pull up this player, the one time it's going to advance and like get to a, like you, you run into this like really narrow path where, and then it has to get to the final that I get to one every eight years is like this weird combo and then like, I don't know it, I'll do it sometimes, but it won't be for the purpose of getting unique. It'll just be because like, well, I actually think these two players are, are good. Yeah. Like it's, it's just the optimal thing to do and the optimal choice. Like it's not, or it's not sub-optimal, I should say. Right. When I said like the most off, but like today, for instance, I did a, Lily today and I was at the, in the 11 spot, I took Kenneth Walker and Chase Brown, right? And the reason it like, to me, it's all kind of one giant here and, but at the same time, I would, I would almost guarantee you that there's fewer of that combo just simply because most first rounders, you know, both of them are technically second-rounders in 80. But I don't really see a big difference between like Kenneth Walker and Sequan Barkley. Like there's just no reason for me to like, force that issue. So that's really the only time that I would, I would really push that. I also, I know that we're kind of going on a tangent here. But like, I do think that this plays into what we were talking about earlier with some of these overhyped rookies to a degree where one thing that I'm trying, and I'm wondering if you think about this at all or if it's like this is top of mind for you. Like, you know, Cyrus Allen, getting the love that he's getting. And obviously, there's still a low probability chance that this like really, really works out or Jacobi Lane or Caleb Douglas, whatever, right? But with that being said, with these contests, like the Milly that's been going on since May, a lot of those guys just weren't drafted at all for the first couple of months of, of best ball season. And so by drafting them now, even if you're only at like three to five percent, you're probably going to end up being above market to a degree, maybe five percent or so, just because no one was drafting them earlier on, right? Yeah. Yeah, I think that, I think that makes a lot of sense there. And I've been, Cyrus Allen is a tough one for me because I've been stubborn, but he's still only like a 16th round pick. And there's so many bad picks there. Like, right. Right. Like, no, it never works. Like, you'll never get the late round Chiefs Receiver, never pans now. And I just like list all the bad ones. And it's like, well, what if it, what if this works? Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I went into this, this prospect season and after the draft where I was like, and I said this on so many podcasts, I was like, guys, this wide receiver class is going to be the Wild West. Like this is the day to picks, especially like I liked the top four, you know, in Tyson and Carl Tate and McKay lemon and Casey Concepcion. But after that, I was like, put them in a hat and just draw randomly, you know, my tears were really big and we were going to see someone emerge out of nowhere just because of the volume of day two wide receivers we had, but it's, it's, it was tough to figure out. I mean, we might not see any, but I think we're, we're on the verge of, you know, the striplings, the, the, you know, the, the Caleb Douglas maybe for your dolphins. We'll see. We'll see. But I think we're on the verge of seeing one of them. We were so unsettled on who was actually going to be a good pick in this sort of weaker class. But then we're all like, no, there's no possible way that, you know, this, that this player we weren't in on is better than, right, right, the rider for later. Right. Right. Exactly. Like it's silly to me to like latch on to priors that like I'm not, if I were to redo a rookie draft right now, I still would not be drafting. Is on stripling over Casey Concepcion over McKay lemon, you know, whatever. But I have no, I think I had him at wide receiver eight to 10 post draft stripling. I would have no problem putting him at like wide receiver five right now. I think that's a very valid thing to do just based on the info, like we get more information. And it was seriously just chaos, you know, after the big four in my opinion, some people might like Omar Cooper, some people might like Denzel Boston, whatever, I get it. I get it. But like, that it seems not egregious at all to just react to something that's just flat in nature, you know. Yeah. If you ever watched a game and wondered what really made the difference beyond the final score. It's exactly why we created NFL Pro Strowth got a man wide open, touchdown, stay up. We go beyond the box squad to uncover the numbers, the tendencies and details that help explain what actually happened on the field. If you've ever wanted to know why a playwork, how a matchup was won, or what most fans missed on Sunday, NFL Pro delivers insights you simply can't get anywhere else. Listen to NFL Pro on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcast or wherever you get your podcast. We had Mike McDonald, Sam Darnel on the field after the game, but that was last year. If you're a football sicko like me, NFL Daily is your kind of show. AJ Brown is loose. The Seahawks win Super Bowl 60, they are bringing Lombardi back to the Northwest. Listen to NFL Daily on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcast or wherever you get your podcast. Let's look at game stacking. This is something that a lot of people always have questions about. To you, how important is game stacking? Are you trying to get at least one playoff game, slash week 17, bring back for every stack you complete or do you feel like when you do that, you often become a little bit more suboptimal with your choices? Yeah, you know, you set me the show, show a sheet and I was thinking about this one a lot. And the answer is yes, I want to be stacking these week 17 games because at the end of the day, that's where all the money is in these best ball contests. Like we need to win week 17, but the problem is, is even if you know which games go off, it's very hard to like pick a the right pieces from it and be, you know, you pair together players at a higher rate, they're completely uncorrelated for the entire season until you get to that week 17 game. So what I don't like to do is constantly pair the same like late brown player with the same early round player. Like I don't always want to be taking, say, Greg Dullsich on my Josh Allen teams because I'm like, okay, this is the week 17, bring back. Because then it's going to be just like those two are going to be overrepresented together. But I do want to be thinking about week 17 stacks, but I worry that there's this like mantra like, oh, I'm going to break the tide of the week 17 game. And then you end up just like pairing two completely uncorrelated players together a lot. But by the same token, I week 17, like Sherman's BBM team, he had he had party and a cross from that he had Caleb. Yeah, or it should be him, Luther Burton. And that was like, you know, what he needed to win the contest, right? So it's obviously super important. But it's really hard to figure out like who in a given game is who you need. And you know, are you constructing sub optimally? Like you said, I'm just like breaking the tie to a week 17 stack that otherwise doesn't matter the rest of the year. Yeah. This is one of those things for me where it's like completely anecdotal where I had, you know, I got, I had a top 50 million team last year and it was correlated and it had that the same stat, same San Francisco Chicago stack, not burden, but you know, had that game stacked. And you go through it. And you're like, okay, I get why we're doing this. But again, it's like once you're there, you're in it. And so that's the big question, right? Like you don't, you don't want to just force the issue necessarily because you got to get there. But I do like the point of not, of making sure that you're not just getting like the same combos over and over again. I think it's really, really important. Yeah. When we look back on the season, this is another one that everyone's been been talking about in terms of, of, you know, the optimal strategy to take, especially with people going a little bit more robust RB this year. But like when we look back, what do you think we will say was the optimal strategy? Was it robust RB, zero RB? No strategy at all. How do you feel about it? So what my answer is in what I'm doing are two different things, which is not great. I think, I think this zero RB is going to
work. But I lack the courage to do it enough. Yeah. It's very hard to properly do it. So robust RB feels really safe. And if everyone stays healthy, I think zero RB. Excuse me. I'm robust RB will be the best. I mean, running backs are the most projectable. They score the most touchdowns, etc. We just haven't had that high profile running back injury or injuries where there has been a clear backup to step in and absorb the role. In retro spec'd, if Jonathan Taylor goes down, it's going to be very clear. Oh, you should have been taking McGowan or Giddens, like if those guys smash the problem is is there's 12 running backs we're taking in the first two rounds. We don't know who the backup is on a bunch of them. And so you get to the end of drafts and you're like, oh, well, you're trying to build a zero RB team. You you could be like right about a lot of things and just not get, you know, not put all the pieces together. Right. So I think sort of like in the abstract, I think there probably will be some really good zero RB picks. Like if you're building around like your tank delts, your Ray Davis's like some of those guys are likely to be hits. But like, they're going to be zeroes a lot. Like they're going to be zeroes for best ball. More often than not. So again, it's hard in a contest where you only have 150 bullets to like, create the exact funnel down. And then you also have to get the other stuff right to like, you have to pick the right receipt. I don't know. So it's very uncomfy. I think I think zero RB has a good shot to work this year because there are really nice receiver values because everyone's pushed the running back so far. But it's very hard for me to like come. I do build zero. I build like all the different different structures. I'm going to get about a thousand drafts done. I'm not going to do only robust RB. But true zero RB is probably the one I do the fewest. And it's usually from like draft spots, three through five, just the way the boards go, which I also don't love. But that's a whole other tangent because it's very comfy to start with your like your, your Jamar chase, your Drake London. And then whatever your third round, wide receiver, DeJour, and then you're like, okay, I'll take, you know, Juddkins or two. Like just kind of build themselves down. It could be exactly what you need. But I, again, this is, I'm almost talking to myself here. I'm like, I kind of want to try it over on the right side of the board a little more than me. That's a good point. Yeah, that's a really good point. I also think that like what you're saying to is sort of this like, do you think that the general best ball audience feels like in order to win in best ball, your lineup has to be perfect as opposed to the lineup just has to be like really good. I do agree from like a zero RB perspective, if you were to think about like what ends up being an optimal way, an optimal lineup at the end of the season in hindsight, you know, if you were to play best ball for the season, you know, like just looking back and saying, like, oh, I could play this, this running back, like what would that ideal lineup look like? I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a decent amount of zero RB type builds because, you know, if a running back, it's hurting a backup steps in and all of a sudden you have these very cheap, you know, backup running backs it in, you know, very good wide receivers and tight ends and such. But then at the same time to your point, I think what you're kind of describing is this idea that, you know, while you're drafting, you're recognizing that you can still hit a 90th percentile outcome and still win and still do really, really well because in that playoff week, you know, you could hit on pits and then get that really good week 17 correlation matchup and then all of a sudden you're good to go. Like would you agree with that? That it's sort of like a what's optimal from like a mathematical looking back perspective. All of these games already were played versus you're making these decisions right now. It's really easy to say, Hey, McGowan's the dude that we want to open and not being, you know, DJ getts. Yeah. No, I agree. I agree with you on that as well. And maybe that's part of my issue is like feeling it. I need to be perfect on everything. And you don't. I mean, you know, two years, I guess three years ago now, the winning PBM team had like Pacheco in like round six and he like, didn't play. Like, you don't need to nail everything right. The way that these things are structured too, it's like a lot of teams that make it to the finals barely got out around one, you know, that it's not, it's not going to just be this like perfect linear. Oh, I just dominated throughout the playoffs type of scenario in situation. There's going to be some walk involved. There's going to be some other factors that are involved that shows you that it doesn't have to be perfect. So I think it's a good thing to bring up because you know, a lot of people are like, Oh, I can't, you know, screw this one up because my team has, it's like, okay, yeah, you ideally don't want to take zeros. I totally agree with that. But then at the same time, you know, if your lineup is not ideal, you can still do okay. You know, you can still, you can still win out. One place that I've had a lot of struggle with, like, this is more so with the late round draft guide, I'd say than anything else. But, you know, I'm giving players to avoid in that guide. And I, you know, I'm giving a couple of levels like top 30 wide receivers. And I just don't, you know, I have a confidence level of one, you know, I rate confidence levels for these things and for these players to target and avoid. And these guys have common levels of one because I look at the top 30 wide receivers. And I'm like, I don't really mind any of them to a degree. Are there any fades for you in that range? Or are you kind of in the same boat? For me, it's just been a booka weirdly enough. I don't know why I maybe just I'm salty because I was taking a ton of him in the big board last year. And I absolutely hated that he went to Tampa. Like, I thought it was terrible. I was also a bit of a Macmillan truth there. I was like, they don't need him. They have Macmillan. Like, what are we doing here? Then I kind of let separation score Twitter get to me last season where, you know, he was producing but like people were like, he shouldn't be. He's getting lucky all this that and the other. I don't know. It's part of it is like, I don't know. The Tampa Bay did sort of fall on their face last year. I mean, Baker, the whole thing kind of had systemic collapse. And now Evans is gone. So should I be in on a booka? Maybe. But I also feel like I feel like there's a chance Godwin's just a wider seaver one. And we're getting him 50 picks later. So I'm a little bit heavier on Godwin. He book. It book is probably the closest thing I have to a full fade now with the toe injury stuff. If he starts falling again, he's a guy that I'm not necessarily worried about his role. I don't really think there's no, although, you know, you could quibble. He was maybe losing a little bit of work at the end of last year. Again, last year is so hard to judge with the injuries. And the seat team just kind of collapsing. But yeah, booka is probably the one guy I've been out on. Do you think that if his ADP does fall a little bit more? I mean, it's falling slightly. It hasn't been like dramatic. But like, do you think that you would end up buying back in at least a little bit? I might use it as a chance to buy back in. But again, it's like going back to it before. If I get him at 35 versus 30 or, you know, it's like, well, now I'm just pairing him with different people. I like all of them. So it's yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it makes you feel good. It makes you feel like I got a discount. Yeah. Yeah. No, I feel you. If you're not into a player, don't force the issue necessarily, right? One other thing I want to ask is with draft rooms now just having so much more information on on sleepers and such, do you have any players right now with them? To me, it's becoming a little bit more difficult to find like your favorite late round picks, right? Do you have any favorites that are that are going really late right now in these drafts? So I was getting warm on Caleb Douglas. I was taking him. Yeah. I seem going like round 14 sometime like. Yeah. We're starting to get pricey. Pat Bryant. I don't feel like he's risen enough. Yes. Agreed. You can still get him late, which I find very surprising. And I don't know if that's because again, the Cyrus Allen, Jacobi lean and Caleb hype is kind of push them up. I would say Pat Brian's a big one. Those are like the late guys. I want to be in on and I'm going to give you a gross name. I want to hear the grosses name. Give me the grosses name. Yeah. Let's stop clicking him. But I was taking some Xavier and Thomas. Yeah. I've clicked some Xavier and Thomas. We'll be Xavier and Thomas grows together. Let's go. Let's go. I don't know it. It seems like he could carve himself out a little bit of a little bit of a role. I mean, last I saw on Twitter, he was getting yelled at by Ben Johnson for like messing up a pre-stat motion. And I'm like, I don't know. I've been literally I haven't heard from him since. So I hope he's not like running with the vibes. But you know, yeah. I mean, he was from my perspective as like a prospect profiling perspective. He was gadgety. But I think gadgety can super super fast gadget work in a Ben Johnson office, right? Like, yeah, I kind of viewed him as like there. And I know they have Khalif Raymond, but like this could be his new Khalif Raymond type player. So I've thrown a dart his way and like bringbacks or bear stacks because it's not like the bearers are super easy to stack in that game week 17 game is like impossible to stack. It's Detroit. So it's it's a way to at least get some player, you know, in that in that offense, you know, as a as a bringbacker part of the stack. Yeah. I mean, you talk about a guy who might get more of a role as the season goes on. I mean, who knows? I could use them in the running game. Exactly. Exactly. I could see it. I could see it. I'm assuming your bold take here at the end is not going to be about Xavier and Thomas. But I would love to hear a bold take for this 2026 fantasy season. All right. My bulltake, I think Malik Willis finishes as a top six quarterback. I love that. I love that. Yeah. You're not Malik Willis. Yeah. Is there any hesitation for you from a bestball perspective? Because you obviously, you know, you can't you were like, is there any worry, I guess from there? Like I haven't really had much concern about like him being benched or something. Yeah. Yeah. And so I've gotten this wrong because I didn't think there was any worry that Justin Fields would get benched here. And it feels a little like, well, true Justin Fields has never been tried. Like we can get there. We just need someone with the courage. Yeah. I don't know. I think Malik, I really don't think there's much of a Malik Willis bench risk. I really don't think that's the case. You know, he looked again. I don't like looking too much into preseason performance. But he looked competent moving that off.
like it did feel like he had command of the team. I don't know, I don't have too much worry. Yeah, it could be a bit up and down. The Dolphins are projected to be really lousy. But if they're willing to stick to the plan of having him run the ball, like, you know, 10, 12 times a game, like he could, you know, he could have a monster year. You could have a thousand yards rushing. And if the passing game isn't complete, his, you know, his one trait that everyone says, well, at least he's good at like the deep ball. I think he's good more than just that. But that sounds pretty fantasy friendly to me. Like he doesn't need high volume. Like, oh, no, all he can do is throw deep touchdowns. Like, oh, all right. That's great. They're going to be losing and he's throwing deep. Like, we're assigned me up. Right, right. So yeah, I'm in on Malik Willis. It could be bad. Also, like, do you find yourself going through QB often? Or so, like, I feel like that's another sort of insulation with Malik is that, you know, even if he gives you 11 weeks or something like that, and you know that you're getting the mobility, you still have the backup of a couple of other quarterbacks. If you're going with three quarterback builds and you still have a couple of stacks at those teams do advance. Yeah. Yeah. I feel like he's, he's perfect for, for three QB builds. Yeah. If I'm not to rely on him every week, if he does have, you know, that one week where he just gets completely shut down. Yeah. Totally agree. Chad, this was great, man. Let everyone know where they can find you, what you've been doing and where they can watch them your content. Yeah. Chad Candle's YouTube channel. I stream bestball drafts 8 30 AM every week day. And yeah, I'd love for you to, to come on by you know, hang out in the mornings. It's a good time. Yeah. It's great. You're doing awesome work. So I really appreciate the time and you hopping on everyone else. Make sure you're subscribed to this podcast, subscribe to the YouTube channel. You can watch this on YouTube as well at late round FF. Otherwise, everyone, thanks for tuning in. The new NFL season is here. You'll have fresh content in your feed every day, all season long. If Fernando Mendoza or any of those rookies are balling out, we'll break down the tape. Join me. Greg Rosenthal and an all-star cast of co-hosts as we preview and recap every game. Listen to NFL daily on the I Heart Radio app Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast. If you love football and want to understand what's really happening on the field, check out our show, NFL Pro. Every week, we break down the biggest plays, trends, and matchups using exclusive next-gen stats, insights, and NFL content you will not find anywhere else. Whether you're new to football, a fantasy football fanag, or a die-hard fan, NFL Pro will help you analyze the game like a pro. Listen to NFL Pro on the I Heart Radio app Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast. This is an I Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
Jordan Tyson remains a draftable wide receiver despite a lingering hamstring injury, with analysts noting potential for recovery and strong performance in the Saints’ offense.
Injuries to key players like McCy Lemon, Luther Burton, and Keenan Allen create uncertainty, but the early season offers opportunities to exploit discounted pricing and risk-reward trade-offs.
Late-round picks are becoming more difficult to evaluate due to improved market clarity and player-specific injury updates, leading to greater caution in drafting.
Best ball managers should prioritize early-season flexibility, as injuries often emerge in the first few weeks, making it crucial to build with depth and value rather than overreliance on high-risk prospects.
Players like Malik Washington, Jalen Nailer, and Caleb Douglas are rising in value due to camp reports, but their draft viability depends on cost, injury risk, and team-specific dynamics.
Injury timelines and team strategies (e.g., slow-playing) can delay player returns, creating temporary value gaps that savvy drafters exploit.
The concept of "rising values" and "falling values" is critical—drafters should embrace risers but avoid over-fading players, especially when they are in a needed position.
Game stacking is important for playoff success but must be balanced with diversity to avoid over-reliance on uncorrelated player combinations.
Summary:
The podcast discusses the evolving landscape of fantasy football during the early NFL season, focusing on injury risks and strategic drafting in best ball formats. Key players like Jordan Tyson, despite a persistent hamstring injury, remain viable due to their talent and the potential for a quick recovery, especially with the Saints’ offensive system. Several other players—including Caleb Douglas, Jacobi Lane, and Malik Washington—are rising in value due to camp reports and improved visibility, though their draft decisions depend heavily on cost and injury timelines.
The conversation emphasizes that early-season drafting is a time of high risk and opportunity, where drafters can exploit undervalued players due to injury delays. Injuries to starters like McCy Lemon and Luther Burton create market shifts, allowing for aggressive value picks at lower prices. The hosts stress a balanced approach: while best ball managers should avoid overcommitting to injured players, they must also not completely dismiss them due to sudden recovery potential.
Late-round value is increasingly difficult to assess, as draft boards react more quickly to real-time reports. Strategic considerations include game stacking for playoff success, but with caution to avoid predictable combinations. Ultimately, the takeaways center on risk management, value timing, and adaptability—key tools for navigating an unpredictable season where injuries, player health, and team strategies constantly shift.
FAQs
NFL Daily is a podcast that provides daily content throughout the NFL season, covering game highlights, player performances, and in-depth analysis of key matchups and plays. It features insights from experts and includes breaking down rookies, injuries, and game-winning drives.
NFL Pro goes beyond box scores by using exclusive next-gen stats and advanced analytics to reveal what really happens on the field. It helps fans understand key plays, matchups, and trends in a way that's accessible and insightful.
Players with injuries like Jordan Tyson or Keenan Allen may still be viable, especially if they're drafted early in the season when injury timelines are uncertain. However, risk tolerance and draft strategy matter, as injuries can impact performance or availability.
Late-round picks are harder to evaluate due to increased clarity from camp reports and beat writers, which shift player rankings. Additionally, injuries and timeline changes make it harder to predict performance in the early season.
Best ball managers should take a case-by-case approach, avoiding high-risk players with recurring injuries unless the cost is significantly discounted. Injuries like lingering hamstrings or toe issues raise concerns, especially in early-season drafts.
Closing line values (CLV) represent the potential upside of a player when their value drops due to injury or performance concerns. Managers may still draft such players if they believe they can outperform expectations, especially in late rounds or with a strong roster build.
Chat with AI
Loading...
Pro features
Go deeper with this episode
Unlock creator-grade tools that turn any transcript into show notes and subtitle files.