Beating the Book: 2026 US Open Betting Preview

We are live from these serious XM studios at the WinLos Vegas. It's Gillalixander. It is the beating the book podcast live on Twitter. I should probably tweet that out so people know we're going to be live on Twitter rather than just accidentally falling on it. This is the post draw US open podcast with the usual suspects that couldn't do it without these guys. Drew Dinsick, of course, so I've done this now for more than half a decade with all the slams. He is the co-host of the deep die podcast which he does with the very funny Andy Molotor. We're going to keep alive NBC sports bet the S would say groucher. Drew in town for signups for a circus survivor now in the studio here with me at the win. Thank you for doing this man. Glad you're here. I wouldn't there's nowhere on earth that'd rather be it's a tennis major on the horizon. It's contest signup weekend here in Las Vegas and so far it's been an incredible trip and I'm very, very fired up to talk about the US open. There's nothing better than a slam like this here and as you have pointed out many years and it goes right up to the week one Sunday of the NFL tennis with a decency to just say we'll play it perfectly and then you can have your football. Of course, Zach Cohen joins us not in studio here at the serious income studios at the win, but at his place in the desert in Arizona. He of course does all kinds of tennis related things, including working for the tennis channel through the years, but of course you know him best from V.S. and Zach. Appreciate you doing this back from your European vacation. You're back from Europe. Drew's headed to Hawaii. So nice little pocket for the both of you. Thanks for doing this. I am back. I have a Roland Garros mug that I got at the other starting Roland Garros store there, but yeah, it was a fun little trip. Oh, yeah. So you, you made a point to go with your daughter to Philippe Chatrier, is that what happened? My wife was tired of me kind of forcing her out of stores and shopping and my overall attitude in these stores. So she was like, you know what? I'm going to go shopping on my own today. Why don't you go do something with the baby? I'm like, all right. I'll go to Roland Garros. Hey. Go. Philippe Chatrier. You are on the outside. You didn't get on the inside though, right? I saw the outside courts because there was some tournament going on like a lower level tournament. I was able to walk around a little bit. I got outside Chatrier, but was not able to go in. Yeah. Few places on earth with that much history and that much of, you know, that in for sports. Have you been, by the way? I've never been. I've, highest highest, I, it's a cocoa, you know, bucket list sports wise for me to see Wimbledon and Roland Garros in play and next couple of years, I'm going to check those off. Only slam I've been to though is the US open. Only been once it happened to be, if you ever see the Marty fish untold, unbeknownst to me the one night that I was at the US open years and years later comes out this documentary. I happened to watch Marty fish lose his mind. Have a mental breakdown on the court had no idea what was happening in front of me. Only to learn 10 years later when the dog comes out. This is the maybe for some the most raucous, certainly the most raucous of all the slam certainly a night crowd at the US open the men's draws out the ladies draws out this came out yesterday before we even delve into plays drew you were on the radio side a couple weeks ago. The big news, of course, for those who don't know, I'm sure you do, but if you don't, the withdrawals on the men's side, they are deep and it's, it's, you know, the headliner is that it's yonic sinner world number one who's out with a knee injury, but it's also Jalfon Saka with an abdomen. It's also Jack Draper with the bone bruise in his left arm. Holger Rune thought he was going to play still out with the Achilles, Korta, Quinn, Nova, Diallo, Davidovic, Fakina. There's a lot of people we're not playing, but sinner is obviously the headline drew and you came on the radio side. I thought like I thought you made a very interesting point about this. Yeah, I mean, Ben's US open this year. You're going to have to put an assortment to it. The best player in the world is not in the tournament. And yonic sinner, you know, the timeline is really strange here. He obviously won Wimbledon. He won it without really much of a challenge. You know, he lost a set to Zverev in the final, but it was a tie break. He was pretty much in control of that match the whole way. He looked in pretty good physical form after not playing any grass leading into the Wimbledon tournament. And so coming out of that, it was like, well, I mean, he's clearly the player to beat here at the US Open. He would, you know, he skips the, you know, Canadian masters largely. It seemed like that was, you know, a load management decision sort of fell out, but somehow, some way in the ramp up of trying to, you know, kind of get his training, you know, to the point where he was ready to compete at the US Open, he injured his knee. And, you know, there was suspicion swirling at when he pulled out of Cincinnati that there was maybe something serious going on. And he got tests in several cities with every expert you could ask for from the medical science space. They all said everything's fine, buddy. And he said, it doesn't quite feel right. So I'm just going to go ahead and not play in the US Open tournament where I have a better than 50% chance to win another slam. So this is like monumentally soft from a guy who, you know, is conquered one of the most mentally tough sports on earth. And I don't understand at all how, you know, his preparation could have gone so sideways or his state of mind is so, you know, susceptible to concern over the potential effects of an injury here to where he's not playing. And I imagine the tournament organizers are pretty, and his sponsors like everybody should have serious questions about how in the world you could manage this thing so poorly. And now two out of the four slams of this, of this year, you just have a pretty obvious stain on him as far as a long-term legacy goes. Like, imagine telling Rafa Nadal, you know, this when he was, you know, fighting through a torn, you know, abdomen or torn glute muscle, you know, as, as he was pursuing, you know, a slam, he would, he would laugh. He's like, we did some, some discomfort. You don't feel right. Like what did the test say? No, the tests are fine. Like, there's no structural damage. There's no, you know, you, there's no, you know, real risk here. It's just, it seems to be a mental thing. And I find it distasteful. Well said. If you watch it, I think I pointed this out the other day. If you watch the Rafa doc on Netflix, it's a four episode. I invite everybody who's a tennis heart or non-harder to watch it. It was exactly what you said. Like he, the, the number of it, we had no idea. We knew he fought through injuries. We had no idea over the course of his career. He was always playing thinking, I don't know if this is my last tennis match. And he won 22 slams. He and Neonix center appear to be a different species of human being based on how they handle these injuries. Zach, would you, I don't even know if I should bring this up. Zach, do you care to flow to the other thing? You just mentioned before we went on air? A lot of believe this, but like I know a lot of people out there that, you know, already have negative opinions of center, believe maybe this is like a silent band or something. I don't think it's actually true. I've always felt that center did have just, you know, a really unlucky drug test situation, but yeah, it's definitely a bummer. And I think that if you kind of look back at this entire season, and if Carlos goes on to win this tournament, it'll seem like a huge failure, despite all of what center did in the was 1000 level events to start the year and winning, you know, at Wimbledon, it'll seem like a really lost year in a way. Um, all right. Let's get into it. I said we were to start with the women earlier, Drew, but let's start with the men. So where are you talking about the men? Um, we can discuss overall, but let me just talk about how the quarters broke down when the draw came out yesterday. Uh, Q one is the Sasha's verive quarter, if you will. Rafa Hodar is in there as well. Uh, Lorenzo Musetti, Alex Dimonore, um, others as well. Q two is the Taylor Fritz Felix Ojealia Seam, um, quarter with Yakub Menchik in there as well, uh, Flavio Kobli, Q three is the joke of itch quarter with Medvedev in their Tiafo Nakashima, um, Nakashima having a great summer, got to the finals in Montreal. And then Q four is the, uh, the group of death as they used to say in soccer, the quarter of death. I was told by Paul Carr, our soccer guy that you're no longer allowed to say things like quarter of death because apparently it's politically incorrect. I don't know who I'm offending by saying that, but nonetheless, uh, it's the Carlitos Alcaraz. Now Alcaraz, we haven't even brought him up yet. He's had the wrist injury. He's been out for four months. So he is the number one seed here. This is his quarter, but in his quarter, our tour feasts, who's just coming off a winning Cincinnati, um, Lehechka Shelton, Bublick, Tommy Paul, and maybe the hardest server on the tour, uh, Tiago Agustín Tearante. I mean, it is just a brutal quarter. Uh, Drew, let's start with you in terms of, uh, just how you view it out, right? And then quarter by sure. So macro, um, you know, for the disappointment of not getting to see the best tennis player in the world, there is an opportunity. And that is that we have a very real world where we're going to have a first time slam champion. Uh, there are four men in this tournament. I believe that just for, uh, who have previously, I actually actually said, it's chill, it's fine. I think chill, it's chill, it's maybe the fifth, uh, really, I've really got a wild car. Oh, so okay. So yeah, that's right. Which by the way, how he was not getting the third story. Yeah. Um, yeah. So there's, there's a couple guys with less than one percent chance that that's when the tournament, who have one slams. But really, it's just very of Alcaraz and Joker, which, uh, among like the, you know, I guess to a degree Medvedev, uh, you know, who have one slams previously who are competing here. And if you add up all of the win probability of this tournament for players who have not won, it is greater than 50% for me. So more likely than a coin flip that we are going to have a first time champion here. And that's exciting. And when you look at the names at the top of the list of, you know, potential first time champions, what's even more exciting is that there's a lot of North Americans, say North Americans because I'm including Felix in that discussion. But Ben Shelton, Taylor Fritz, Francis Teafo, even Leonardo TN and Brandon Nakashima, all Americans with a non-zero chance to win this title and decent draws for a lot of those guys as well. I think Felix is a really fun case to make as far as a potential first time winner here considering he's made the semis here at the Fleshing Meadows twice. It seems like he plays some of his best tennis in New York. And, you know, is not especially, you know, beaten up physically. He hasn't played much tennis since we saw a pretty awesome run from him at Wimbledon. So Felix is 100% in the mix. Shelton Fritz in the mix. And then on the fringes, some more American champion, you know, American potential title winners, which we haven't had in since Rodic, right? Yeah. It's been been a minute, it's been a minute, you mean almost a quarter of a century? Yeah, yes, yes. But, you know, and beyond that, there's some really kind of fun to watch young players who people may not be familiar with in Rafa Hoda, Lorenzo Misedi, and Arthur Fees, who I think they're all Europeans, Spanish, Italian, and French respectively who have a decent chance here as well. So it's pretty wide open. It's pretty, you know, it's pretty flat really outside of the, you know, the previous slam winners. And, you know, there's various reasons I think to take on Zverev Alkraz and Djokovic at price. So that's my mindset. Chris Felica on the radio side this morning, he texted this to us yesterday, he took the field, these bets are available, the field versus the three that you just named Alkraz Djokovic and Zverev plus 135. You like that bet? Yeah, absolutely. My fair is close to 55% there. So that's a nice one. And I guess we should probably start with a little bit of a narrative about Alkraz, just in case you haven't been paying close attention. He has not played a competitive tennis tournament. I'm not counting mixed doubles. He has not played a competitive tennis tournament since April. In the interim, we were told it was at first, you know, some wrist, you know, some, you know, I was in an inflamed, you know, I forget the medical terminology that our friend, Fildeson on Tuesday, yes. You know, basically it was a wrist injury. It wasn't so serious that he needed surgery, but he, you know, the doctor, you know, the doctor's orders were rest. He took off most of the clay swing. He took off all of the grass swing. And when we saw him physically, you know, visually, when we saw him at the World Cup doing, you know, appearances, it was very clear at that time in July that he had lost a ton of muscle mass. Like he just didn't look like Alcrasso. It was like, oh, man, Mike, like, okay, so he's taking the rest seriously. Like he's, yeah, he's, he's, he's following doctors orders here. He hasn't didn't play any of the warm up hard court events, which means, you know, he's coming in cold. And what we've seen from him video wise in terms in competitive practices has not looked anywhere close to the level that he had when he won this tournament last year. So if he is ultimately able to string together some wins early in this tournament, play himself into some sort of form, he could be dangerous later. But I think it is a really, really tough thing to ask him to, you know, to win this. And, you know, he's a special tennis player. It's, when you doubt these guys, they try to make you pay for it. But, and I'm, yeah, I'm willing to pay for it, I guess, because I'm against him at price. But it's, yeah, it's, it's going to be a really, really tough thing to ask. And then when you add on top of that, the draw you got, I think, I think he's this, this to me feels like try to get yourself into shape, make something out of the later portion of the calendar here and reset in 2027. Who'd you end up betting out right then? Felix, I was your alias scene as my guy in this one. I have a one shot one kill right now. Made some money on Alcrasso playing. There was a market available for that, which was mispriced. So I'm up on that. I caught a falling knife on center price because there was some inside information that leaked when I had some open orders hoping to catch a, hoping to catch center at a reduced price. I ended up catching him at an inflated price. And I'm going to eat that one. But, but ultimately you're right, Felix 50 to one, 45 to one, and 38 to one was the last click. So I'm in, I'm in for a big number. I'm hoping for, and actually a lot of the men's predictions that I'll give on this podcast are wish casting. I'd like to, I don't, I really, if it's sure of wins this tournament, like just, it's just going to be extremely, you know, disheartening that he would have come potentially had an asterisk winning friendship and not having to play center. And now, you know, a second slam, you know, in a, in a, in a weekend field, I just, I can't have it. I hope he's, you know, ultimately threatened or knocked out early. They're waiting his whole career to win one. I know, I know. Zach, I already know the answer to this. You landed on Felix too, huh? Yeah. So I took four players like last Monday or Tuesday overnight. I took Felix was one of them, similar price to Drew is like the equivalent of 49 to one in the prediction market. I have Fritz and Shelton at the equivalent of 19 to one. And I have Hodor at 20 to one. And the only thing that I have added in terms of outright since this tournament, since we've seen the draw, I did add some Arthur fees to 12 to 1. Nice. Um, why the love, let me just ask you both since you both have Felix Ozealia seen, but by the way, just in terms of raw data, um, with a opponent, non-specific here, opponents, non-specific, just in terms of raw data, uh, he is second to Taylor Fritz, like the, the pricing in Q2 is accurate based on the data to Taylor Fritz, uh, one year and six month numbers, hard courts. I'm talking about, um, serve percentage, return percentage of wins, uh, one year numbers for Fritz, 105.4, 106.5 on the six month, knock a, excuse me, uh, Ozealia seen 104.8, 104.7. So close, but Taylor Fritz has the slight edge. Why, why such conviction on Felix, Zach? I just didn't think he belonged all the way down there on the list. I think that he is a borderline top seven top eight player. He was being priced more like a 15 to 20 guy. And like Drew said before, he has had so much success at this venue. Even last year, I thought he played really well in his loss to center in that semi-final match. So I think that he is coming into this tournament with some confidence and I do feel like these players do see an opportunity here and they're going to feel like they get win every match that they play. There's no question about that. And as you, as you alluded to, Drew Felix made the semi's last year here in the semi's believe in 2021, the only two slam semi's he's ever gotten to. That's right. That's right. This is the break through for him, break through opportunity for him. He's got the skill set. He's got the upside. He's got the, you know, the ceiling. And, uh, and yeah, this is pretty clearly the, this particular venue, um, kind of brings out the best in himself. Very, very excited to see what he can do in this tournament. And, um, I think, uh, just if, you know, the prices have moved a lot of what we quoted is, you know, if you're listening or like, gee, thanks. I'd love to go back in time and have some of those prices, like just for perfect clarity, my fair for him is just shy of 18 to one. So if you can find better than that, I think you're making a plusy me bet. How much of your, because you alluded to it, how much of your tennis betting is now done on prediction markets versus traditional sportsbooks? I mean, I think you have to do a lot of it there just based on the volume that you're seeing in play and these outwrites in particular. Um, it's, it's not, there's not lots of, there's a, there's a, there's a lack of, um, options and, and the menu is relatively limited, but the volume and play on what we saw with, uh, and actually, let's, let's go back in time. What, why believe in Felix? Yeah. The most compelling match of the entire Wimbledon run was his quarter final against Jokovic that was so closely contested and Felix was really, really good in that match and ultimately lost. Um, I, the, the conditions there were perfect for Jokovic and really tough for Felix. He's never really, uh, been able to put together like the perfect game for grass, but he was nailing the margins. He was serving out of his mind and he was playing with a ton of confidence that you have enough, certainly seen from him in the last couple of years. So, um, you know, that, that alone kind of had me on, what, you know, Felix watch for the us open, uh, and then, uh, and then now with center out of the way. It's like, oh, no, now, this isn't just take a position and trade out of it. This is now like, he could actually win this. Um, and, um, I'm very helpful for it because I like him as a player. He would be a great ambassador for the sport if he broke through this. He really would be a very likable guy. This, I mean, again, for the, for the non tennis, hardos, this is the right, the men's tour dominated for so many years. And I mean, decades, right? With, uh, Roger Federer, Rafa Nadal and the Novak joke of itch quickly behind them, you know, there's a generation of male tennis players that never could break through with very few exception. We alluded to a couple earlier, chillich, uh, El Putra, one one, varicose. one one multiples. He went three. And then, you know, these guys who were eight, you know, were just a bit younger, they're like, oh, well, no vac joke of it. And we're off in a doll and, uh, and Roger Federer, they will age out and we'll have our chance. Well, then here comes Yonic Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. And so that has been the dominant theme in men's tennis, um, for this new stretch of years. But these are rare opportunities now where one of them, uh, in, you know, in several times this year. And here we are at the US Open without, uh, without Sinner. Now the opportunities present themselves. So, yeah, I mean, would, would anybody be shocked to see Carlos in at the end or Sasha's variable one is first slam earlier this year? Or no vac joke, which let me ask about joke of it, uh, Zach, he has tried to, he's already leads right all time 24 men's grand slam singles titles. I guess his quest is for 25 just because this is a nice number. And because I suppose Margaret court has 24 too. So he's got something to just shoot for. Do we think the window for that to happen as closed or do you believe he has a legit shot here? I don't think he has a chance here. And I feel like I've been the most pro joke of it. So the three of us, since we started doing this and I've had him to make the semi-finals, had him to win some of these majors in the last two years. But I was kind of talked off of him in Cincinnati where I just don't think he was able to kind of hold up physically in a best of three sets match against a player that he really should have beaten in his sleep. I think the joke of it comes into this tournament with some serious kind of physical question marks and things that he will admit himself like he said that he's been dealing with something off the court that he's been having trouble with in these type of hot human conditions. And I do think that what we have seen of him, almost similar to Alcoraz, like in terms of videos, mixed doubles, like something has looked off with him ever since he arrived in New York. So I just don't feel like the opportunity is there right now. I don't know if he's dealing with an injury. If he's not, and this is just who he is at this point, I would say the door is kind of slammed shut on him to number 25. I threw out numbers earlier just so again, for those who haven't followed this podcast before. So when I'm putting together the serve percentage numbers and the return serve, 100 is average. If you're below 100, you're kind of not really playing tennis at a lead level. One tens are really where the elite level is. Joke of itch in his prime would exceed one 10 center would exceed one 10 when you combine those numbers. Joke of itch right now, one year numbers, I mean, it's reflected what you're saying, Zach is reflected in numbers. His year numbers on hard courts, 105.7, his six month numbers, 102.9, which like we never write with Joke of itch have ever been in that region. There's two more problems with that number you quoted. It's not very much tennis. That's true. And it's not very competitive opponents. It's not like he was just, you know, playing center on over and over again. And that's why his number is terrible. He's not even really playing very tough guys. I wanted so badly to do a heel turn on this podcast. Not like recently. They're like, like during, like right before Cincinnati started when center was like, there was rumblings that he might be, you know, not play. I was like, oh, yeah, I could finally do a heel turn and be like, it's time. Joke of itch wins 25. And, you know, it's just the perfect setup here where you because he hasn't played much tennis this year. Like he's he hasn't he he's specifically, you know, kind of a winnowed down his schedule to only focus on slam pursuits. He's gone deeper in slams than I think a lot of people realistically would have respected Australian. What his numbers looked like. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It'd be him beating center and Australia still remains the most inexplicable result of the entire tennis. Center was two of 18 on breakboard. I understand center losing to Juan Carlos. I want one man. Well, surrender low more than I understand center losing that. Wow. Because because the elements of such a factor. But, um, but yeah, no, I would I was really hoping that it was going to be a fun ride. One last ride kind of experience with Joke of itch in this tournament. But his form right now is awful. It's awful. And it's not just the numbers. The eye test is like, oh, so it's it's it's joker. It's just not it's not it's not happening. I see what you do there. It's not happening. And, um, you know, it's it's a it's a shame too because, um, you know, if there was a script for tennis, you would have been like a limited Alcaraz limps into the US open with no center and Joke of itch gets a week quarter. Yeah. And he puts together a run gets by Alcaraz and the, you know, in the semi finals and then in the, you know, the final slam of the season, he wins 25 over a, I don't know, you know, over, uh, you know, a green opponent coming out of the top half of the draw. But I just, well, can I can I ask the non betting then tennis sports talkie question, which is, is this his final slam? Like, is this the, like, he's not going to Australia in January. Is he? I mean, that's a hard court. So maybe, but I like, I don't, I don't know. It's tough for me to really understand what is like his arc is really how it's going to end, because, um, you know, the, the, the, the goodbye, you know, he pretty clearly wants to going to be in the, you know, he wants to have the final say in the discussion with Federer and Adal and, right, and, and himself as the best of that era. Um, and it's not doing him the legacy favor to continue to play in these tournaments. He'll get beaten up by the guys. So I, he has to have an exit strategy. I don't see it. I don't, I haven't heard it. Um, up until recently, Zach, and yeah, I think he's, he's I would agree with this. Up until recently, we called him probably the third best player in the world, but I don't think we can say that anymore. No, I think he's probably my eighth or ninth choice in this title. Yeah. He hasn't said he wants to play the next Olympics. Right. That's how he wants to end it with the Olympics. He already got his gold. Yeah. That was the best match of his entire year last year. That was so good. I don't know how it was a 2024. I guess, um, but yeah, him beating a outcress and that final was, uh, was impossibly high level from him. And, um, yeah, that would have been a nice time to go out on top and then he would have had the, uh, he would have had the final say in the, uh, in the good debate. Now he's got a, now he's got to figure out how to, um, you know, kind of tell the story with this whole final chapter where he's getting eight by guys who are journeyman fast forward two weeks of joke of it. Just like, I'm doing a great story. Yeah, it would be. Hey, you know what? If he's against the very end of the final, you know, I'm going to be chaired for. Yep. No fact, joke of it. Yeah. Um, okay. Uh, I'm curious where you guys landed on with quarters. I'm, I'm, let me do mine first because I'm going to let the hate wash over me once I say this drew, drew or accurate or he could sense from jewelry. They not like this play. So by the way, the only outright I have was the morning. It was the Friday morning where center announced that he was out. And I was way behind this because prediction markets, if you follow prediction markets, you already kind of knew somebody knew something and drew you actually texted us that morning. It was a few days earlier. It was crashing. Somebody knew something about center not playing. So the morning that he announced and centered it at his own on Twitter, I actually grabbed Alka as a plus 175 thinking that was going to be a good price. You get a better price than I did. Uh, he's drifted closer to two dollars. That's my outright that I have in pocket. My one quarter, some laughing already because I can't wait to hear you guys kill this. Uh, I went to quarter number three, which is the joke of itch quarter. So in philosophy, that's the correct one. I think to target. I went with Zach and he guesses. He already knows. I think I heard, heard you say it today. Oh, you did? Oh, that's right. I said it on the show. That's right. I went with Danielle Medvedev, who's seven to one to win quarter number three, seven to one widely available bed MGM draft Kings shop around, of course. Um, it is a joke of itch quarter. Brandon Akashima is also in the quarter. Uh, he got to the Montreal finals and the 1000 there best performance of his career. So he's playing really well. Big foe is there. Tiafo. Um, so there's that Medvedev, in case you don't know about Danielle Medvedev, he is, uh, how can I put this? He lets us, he wears his emotions on his sleeve. Uh, he's playing by his standards, very poor tennis, at least by, well, in his opinion. And he was caught on the, uh, on the, uh, on the bench, they're saying, maybe I should just go blade pickleball. I played double jacks, doubles with jacks, like, so angry at himself. I love Medvedev here. He is a past winner of this tournament. I believe Drew called it that year, by the way, US Open earlier in the year, you did. Um, I like Medvedev here at that number. I think that number is too long for a guy that loves this tournament. And I think it's a quarter he can exploit for all the reasons we talked about. And now, ladies and gentlemen, the hate will wash up. It's not hate. I mean, this is a quarter three. I think you correctly, I got that part right. You said, well, you said it up correctly. Yes. This is a putting soft quarter. Yes. There's no one who is playing with outside of Nakhashima. There's no one who's playing with confidence or with quality on this hardcore swing period. Big full kind of. Kind of. Kind of. Kind of. He's, he's had a pretty up and down scene overall. And he had a couple of impressive. He had a couple of impressive wins where he was 50-50 and he was clearly the best in the last month. And so I'll give him that. But, um, and, you know, he had four short. There's no, you know, I think Tiafo, at least. He's a showman to the degree that he feeds off of the New York crowd more than any other American athlete, I think. No doubt. Um, so he's split. So we talk about in baseball apply. Yeah. He, uh, he, he, he soaks it in and fuels it to play his best tennis here. So, um, I think he gets to the fourth round. And that's probably where he faces Medvedev. The Medvedev question for me is literally just like, like, is, is, is he rope a doping with how bad things are or are they this bad because I'm going rope and no because he went to Winston Salem and he lost to Martin damn like it's more than damn junior. Yeah, so it's not great, not great prep, you know, going to Winston Salem in the first place was a head scratcher and then losing that fashion of the fact that you go to Winston now. So, yeah, it's a, yeah, it's reminiscent of a tennis player who's searching for any answers and yeah, that's spooky, but, you know, to the degree that he out of these, out of the guys outside of Joe Kovic in this quarter, he has played at the highest level at the U.S. Open in previous years, consistently. So if he ultimately runs through here and gets to the semi's, I don't think anyone should be surprised. Same with Joe Kovic, very hopeful that we get a baritone for a drink a match that, you know, that, that lives up to the names, would love to see a Joe Kovic of a drink a match in the second round just for old times sake, like that little section of the draw is just for the nostalgia folks, just the pure nostalgia heads. I'm looking, I'm just looking through the round one match, by the way, the actual tournament starts on Sunday, which probably point that out now that the draw is out. The actual tournament starts on Sunday, I'm looking at some of the, the matches looking for, is there a banger amongst them, Casper Rude versus one Manuel Cerundolo could get interesting. Casper has like no ability to serve right now. Right. Exactly. It's not going great. Malfice Vallejo is for, for the tennis hardos, that's pretty coinflipian and is reflected. Oh, I know which is a, which is the one I would look forward to the most. Learner Tien and Nuno Borges is a really good one, just scrolling here, sorry, probably should have done this before. There's a couple of rounds there. Yeah, some really. Yeah. Quarter three, I did land on Tiafo and Nakashima. I took Tiafo plus 700 Nakashima plus 150. So in, in Faleca, by the way, went Nakashima as well as seven or one. So you didn't set Tiafo and Nakashima. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. The, the match that I'm the most excited, I mean, just the end, like the rickid joke of it, which is not going to be a good match. Don't kid yourself, but that didn't, they, you know, that, they, they, they, for wrinkle was such a perfect follo for joke of it over the years and beat him at the USO final. Yeah. One of the more memorable. That was when I just started betting tennis and I remember that final. So, so, yeah. It was incredible. Varika, the only guy that won multiple slams during the big three won three of them. Yeah. Yeah. Sort of gets lost in history. Yeah. But, um, the name, I, I guess, outside of the, like, just the nostalgia-factor, uh, Marida is playing pretty well right now. His numbers are kind of surprisingly good. It's against weak competition, so you have to qualify it. But, uh, I think he gets by Rubellev and round two and gets to the third round Nakashima Marida is going to be a really fun match in the third round. I think Nakashima, if he gets through there, uh, presents a pretty difficult challenge for joke of it. If he's still standing in round four, um, and, uh, Tiafo, it's leap, but, uh, just based on the, um, uh, you know, the fat, the crowd factor, uh, him making the semi finals winning Q3. I think is very life. Okay. Any other quarters, Zach, that you bet? The only other one I did take fees, uh, plus 500 to encoder for and it's just a nightmare of a draw. You said it before. But I do think that he got the better of it than Shelton did, at least in that section of that draw. I think Shelton, I mean, like, this was like designed for him to lose early. It's Greeks for round one, her coach round two, like, it's just an awful draw for him. Yeah. That is, I mean, again, for Q4 in its entirety, Carlos Alcarez, Ben Sheldon, Arthur Fees, um, Tommy Paul Alexander, public scam, Nory scam, Nory, I didn't want to, didn't want to ignore him for it. Well, that's why it's like if Shelton has to face two big servers in Greek sport, our coach, and then gets like, Nory and round three, I could see Cam, Cam, Nory would be very, very annoying for him, picture, picture, true, just losing his mind at his ass. Oh, scam, Nory. I don't have the song screen on the nose too. Yeah. Lacheke versus, uh, Fees is potentially a really good third round match. Fees is playing amazing, well, amazingly well right now. And I think, um, you're, you know, what you were quoting about, um, how you price a tennis player based on their past performances and particularly looking at holding break, Fees is numbers don't stand up as like, uh, you must pay attention to this guy. He's, he's lighting the world on fire. Um, they're good. They're not great. Um, but it is, it's come against, um, really, really high quality competitions. Yes. Um, and it's still, I still think one oh six and one oh seven. It's, yeah, it's good. It's good. Yeah. But it's not like, you know, like, hey, pay attention. This guy could win a slam. That's right. Right. But I would qualify it as like, it is against a pretty difficult competition. So, uh, I think that's, that's, uh, worth paying attention to. I do worry a little bit about Fees, his, um, he is a, uh, he is a really, really physical and, uh, violent tennis player. And uh, that has a tendency to, uh, uh, uh, to induce injuries and if he's in a, a war with Letch, uh, war with Shelton, a war with Alcras, uh, that's probably where his tournament ends. So I don't know the Fees is your winner here, but, uh, if you do want to kind of, you know, kind of hit your wagon, you know, hit your wagon to, uh, and up and coming in player, um, Fees is awesome to watch. I rode out pretty much exactly of Vison.com. I rode up like Fees, my favorite pick is Fees to win the quarter. Yeah. I think if he were to get to the semi finals, he would be completely gassed at that point. I would just want to swap the one off the talent, but yeah, yeah, but he is physically in bad shape. So who in the world is coming out of the bottom? I, I seriously, like it's, it's, uh, half he made it. Half of this draw, you're going to have a, uh, I think you're going to have a name that people are a little bit, uh, wow, he made a final, uh, good for him. Uh, it's potentially, uh, it's potentially going to be a, uh, uh, a little bit of a shocker there. Not that he's playing as well as he did last year, but wasn't it, wasn't this where Bublick made his run last year? Oh, I don't remember. He was, uh, the US open, where he made the big run quality was on grass last year from what I remember. I actually, you know, he started in Phoenix, like he did play pretty well. Yeah. That might have been two years ago though. Now, I think about it, um, only to get crushed by Sinner, ultimately, where I remember Bublick was like, I'm not even that bad. This is, yeah, this isn't fair. Um, all right, anything else on the men's side that we left out here? Well, I just kind of want to point out that kind of the final point on like, um, the fact that you could have either a limping player come through on the bottom or a weaker player who just happens to squirt through, uh, you know, a funky draw, um, I think that sets up. If you're, if you're really seriously shopping in the outright market, just focus on the top, um, and then in the top, we didn't really mention Hodor, right, a ton, Rafa Hodor, another young, uh, up and coming Spanish player. He's had, uh, his kind of breakout on clay, uh, this year, but it was a mini breakout and then a more sincere breakout on the hardcore swing leading into this tournament. So, uh, would really love to see him put an exclamation point on a really good, uh, spring summer campaign. His quarter price was not good enough. It's not good. No, everybody is the secret is the secret is that the secrets out of the back? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, but I like, uh, I like, you know, his section in quarter one is soft, uh, he should win his section pretty comfortably, which sets up a pretty fun matchup against wherever Musetti, um, I'm going to just again, like for personal reasons, I'm going to call Hodor over Musetti, uh, in Q one, uh, and I'm going to take Felix over Fritz in Q G2. The Musetti retirement after being up on Joe Kovic, two sets to none in Australia, being one set away from winning that quarter, I had him at six to one. I believe some people are on his eyes, nine to one remains one of the biggest gut punches ever. Yeah. So yeah, was that your personal reason, by the way, when you said personal reason? Oh, no, just because I want to go home. I'm happy. What has he done to you? What has he done to hurt you? And like, 15 tournaments and he lost and then, uh, and then he, and then he, you know, he, uh, he veered into the domestic violence is in a way that makes him a, a true villain. He did veer. Um, and then he won a slam in, you know, in, in relatively, uh, in, in, in, in asteric fashion. Yeah. Are we supposed to say allegedly with the domestic violence stuff? He settled it out of, uh, out of court. So he's acknowledging some responsibility there. I suppose settlement is not equate to a knowledge. We share that legally, but they might have been like an agreement where he had to issue an apology. I don't recall. Yeah, I don't recall either. I just know that, uh, he didn't like it when Morgan Riddle, Taylor Fritz's ex-girlfriend was, uh, making light of that, uh, during a match once, uh, all right, Zach, anything else to the lens? Like the only thing I want to say is like we kind of hit on prediction markets before. Like the reason I think they're kind of cool, especially for fusions is like, it sounds like Drew, you got something similar, like two cents on Felix. That's already at four cents with center retiring. And it's like you can make money on these players that you think are going to have a really good tournament, but don't necessarily think they're going to win. We could be looking, you know, round three, around four and Felix is up to 14% and you've like doubled your money or, you know, seven extra money and you could just cash out. Like you have a much easier kind of pathway to making money with these. And the cash out that you refer to is a more natural cash out where you don't, it's screwed by the, by the regulated, or you just ride two cents until it's a hundred. Yeah. Is it a great point that Zach made, though, because if you're betting futures in tennis, you should be trying to optimize a player in a portion of the draw who will benefit from other chaos happening. And a tournament like this where you have alchor questions about Alchor as his fitness. Questions about joke, which is form questions about his various form. We didn't even really give him any shine on this podcast because he sucks. But He has been playing poorly, and I think just because the top three guys all have huge question marks and could lose in the first week, then that's equities right into your pocket if you have a runner who makes the second week of this tournament. That approach for this particular tournament I think is going to bear a lot of fruit. I'll leave it with this. Who's the most random name on the men's side that could get the furthest? I think it's married, personally, and again, like it's tough to kind of swallow how weak his competition has been, but his numbers to me look pretty good. I'm not even sure I'm pronouncing his name correctly. Maddie that Maddie that I finished play. Yeah, Daniel, Maddie that he's got a middling on the numbers. But he's he's had a good summer though. Yeah, he's had his moments. I was going to suggest is it is it Borges? Is it Nuno Borges or is it someone like Tyrantae? I don't know. At least what about Ken Tinalis? Someone like that. I don't know. Anyway, the point being there's not many random. You know, we didn't mention Alex Dimonore. Those days are done. He's done. Yeah, I mean, he's he's the yeah. He's the the gatekeeper of good. You know, well said gatekeeper of good. All right, to the ladies, do it. Zack and I already have igustriatek bets. We did so when she was in the Toronto final, she was busy winning that tournament. And after one set, I was just like I've well, first of all, when she midway through that tournament, she was she was set down in Marta Kostjuk. And if you are a seasoned eagle watcher, I could almost see it happening where it just felt like she at all clicked. And she was like, I'm done with this. I'm about to crush everybody. She did in that tournament. So one set into the finals, I actually texted both of you guys. And I'm like, hey, you get still out there at seven to one. You actually Zack found an eight to one, right at that time. Yeah, there were a bunch of eights available. Yeah, the timing was perfect because I was not paying attention whatsoever. You talked to me. For the listeners who want to look behind the curtain, it wasn't like, hey, by the way, she's available. It was gut check. Exclamation point. Yeah, but I think that is exactly the quote. Yes. Gut check. Something like that. You know, we make you quote Joe Gibbs. You always have to. Okay. So she's not the short shot. Arena, Savalanka world number one is the short shot to win the tournament. But arena, I would, I said this about eager earlier in the year. I say it about Savalanka, something's going on between the years. I believe with the world number one. So just breaking it down by quarter to start. Savalanka's quarter is Q one. Also in that quarter is Linda Noscova, the Wimbledon champ, Deala Schneider, Taylor Townsend, Barbora Kragicova, who is one of a couple of slams in Marta Kostjak. I buried the headline there on our most perhaps in the betting market, the closest competition. Q two is the, Q two is pretty much the most straightforward one to me. That's either, I mean, that's a three pronged quarter to me. It's Pagula, Svitalina and Mojova. I don't know how you can get to anybody else in that quarter. Q three is pretty, is to me, is the most fascinating one because on one half of the quarter, you have Mira Andreva and Amanda Nissa Mova, who look headed to a clash. And on the other side, this is the cocoa quarter, by the way, cocoa to me, she didn't get the like the top players in the world on her side, but she got three pesky players. Eva Yovic is on her side half of the draw. Alexandra Yala is on her half of the draw. By the way, if Yala and Coco play, who's, who's got the best of the audience, the rooting audience in that? I asked that on another podcast. That's the exact same question. Really? The first thing I said about the woman's draws, who has the crowd in round four? That would be fascinating to find out. And then the other one in there also is. I'll set a line at Philip, the Philippine contingent 69 and a half percent. Wow, that's higher than I thought. But I would agree with that they're the favorite. The other one is Sarah Bayleck, who's also in that half, who's also pesky. And Q4 is the Ega, Rebok and a quarter, but Rebok and a for those who don't know, walked off the court in Cincinnati when she was playing against Shriantek. Down four, one in the first set, she sort of bent over for like a little half volley. She immediately grabbed her leg. She tried to go on. She couldn't put any weight on it. So Rebok and as a huge question mark, I would actually say the biggest, for me, the biggest competition for Shriantek would be the winner of the Benchichosaka match. But those are how the quarters break down. Drew, give us the macro first. Yeah, Sabelinka, you mentioned it. She's not right. She's defending her title. Her 52, the last 52 hard court numbers are superlative still. But if you take them all as equal, then you're doing something a little wrong. You need to be time-waiting. And the recent stuff is not anywhere close to the older stuff in that sample. So, yes, you mentioned it. Something's going on. I don't think this is a, I'm not really, this is, I'm only pursuing slams. I'm only going to, I'm going to flip a switch when it gets doing the lights get bright. To me, it does look like there are some issues. And a lot of quitting, a lot of quitting. When the going is getting tough for her now, literally quitting off the court. But while the, yeah, when the going has gotten tough for her, a couple of times now, it has been, okay, bye. Yeah. And that's, that's not going to fly here. This is going to be a tournament that you're going to have to win by grinding out results. The most dramatic event was against Schneider, right? This summer when she just, yeah. That sounds right. Yeah. That one was like, okay, turn it off. It's over. It was amazing. There was no fight. Yeah. So, yeah, she's going to run into someone at some point. That's going to make her have to work hard. And she's going to quit. That's my guess. I like, I like Marta in Q1. Just because I think there's, this is, you know, she's had a breakout year. And I'm, you know, I'm willing to consider some of her just ridiculously good clay numbers when I'm coming up with a fair here, even though it's a hard court. So, hopeful that, you know, this is the tournament where she kind of puts things together on heart, a little hard, a little more than what she has to this point of his career. Q2 meet, to me, looks very weak. By the way, in Q2, one of the most hilarious head-to-heads between two slam champions that meet, that will mean nothing in the Sophia Kennen Venus Williams match. One of those two women is going to make round two and has no business being there. So, Sophia Kennen, Australian open winner right before the pandemic. Yeah, that was a weird one. And yeah, Venus Williams still playing for whatever reason. The health insurance. Yeah, health insurance. Yeah. So, Pagula wins Q2 almost is a pretty high likelihood for me, but the market has that nailed. I'm not really buying the Spitalina or Mukava chances coming out of the bottom and beating Pagula in the quarterfinal there. I think Pagula is coming through. Side note, fashion note, Jesse Pagula with her fit for this tournament. Looks fabulous. Yeah. By the way, looks fabulous. Second best fit after Call of South Cres is an X jersey. Oh, okay, all right. The bottom half for me, third quarter. I don't mind taking on Goff at this price at all. She has a tough, tough, tough, tough road. You do agree with that. Oh, yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. I don't think, actually, even like round two is going to be a tricky one for her. Round one's going to be tricky. Basically every single round. Yeah. Her path is going to be nasty at every step of the way. So, she's going to be tested, tested, tested, tested. And I think she ultimately goes down Dayala. I like Ayala, Anasmova as the Q3 final. And that's a coin flip for me. I really hope Anasmova plays well here. I'd love to see her defend some points. I think in this Simova can hit through Ayala ultimately. Her ranking really, really, really, really looks gross if she doesn't make a run here. This is, this is important. Sometimes that pressure affects players negatively. I hope it puts wind in her sales. Andriva, I haven't seen enough of her from her on hard court to convince me that she is in the discussion as a potential winner. So, I don't mind taking Anasmova over Andriva and then Andriva over the winner of Goffayala. So, it's, that's the toughest one to call, though, by far, because I think there's four realistic winners and then Q, Q4, your, your call on IGA was, that was pretty prescient. I think Osaka is the clear best player in section eight, which is the bottom half of Q4. Now, you mentioned the, the rebukina injury. To me, that I'm not a doctor, it looked like a calf Achilles area to where they're going to exercise extreme caution. And if and when she's in a match up against a player who's forcing her to, you know, be a little bit more, you know, engage a little bit more movement. That seems like a, she'll be in harm's way. She may ultimately withdraw or retire at some point in this tournament. So, put a line through rebukina, which sends Osaka pretty cleanly through to the quarter final where she may draw a little bit of a, you know, a, you know, a potentially weary IGA, if bench or keys can do anything. But your, your US open champion, in my opinion, comes out of the ego, Osaka, fourth quarter quarter final. I'll go with that. Um, yep, I would, I agree with almost all that. By the way, I mentioned who had withdrawn from the men's side. Obviously, Sinner, the other two big names, Fonseca and Draper on the lady side, not not as dramatic, but no Victoria and Boko, who tore ligaments in her left knee during a fall at the Queens Club in June. Why do I not remember that happening at all? Is that a vacation or something? Hayley Baptist, we do remember tore her ACL, Mniscus during the second round of the French Open. Emma Radocano passed US Open champ as a quality famously back in the day. She's been out since the Queens Club final with severe grade four stress fracture in her right, Sinner. All three of those girls are out, ladies are out pardon me, Zach, we're gender betting here outright and then quarters. So I do have Pagula to win quarter to plus 200. I also took some Pagula 12 to 1, not too much, but it's almost just like a FOMO bet. I feel like I've been all over the last two, three years, and if she wins her first grand slam and I'm on it, I'm going to be pissed. You're like golf better now. Like, that's the same goal for every week is like, I can't not bet, can't play. I do think she's going to make the final though. So I guess I think it's a good value just for that reason. I do think that she's got a great job. Actually, you know, for our friends in Europe, each way that puppy, each way, yeah. And then I did take Coco plus 550, I think that it's a really tough draw, I just think that, you know, you're talking about the players playing the best tennis coming into this. It was EGA and it was Coco. I think Coco hasn't had a double fault percentage of 10 or higher in like 10 matches now. Feels like she kind of has that serve fixed and the forehand, I thought looked really good in Cincinnati and she's obviously one of the players that liked Tiafo raises her game here and she's already a top three player in the world. So I think that she just has the most upside. I kind of think this is her tournament to lose I think the winner of golf EGA wins the tournament. Uh oh. Okay. As long as he gets included in this, Holly, I love the, I love Zach that we both independently without ever talking to each other came up with the ridiculous question of if Coco plays Yalo. Who do you think the crowd? It's the most fascinating. That's 30. Yeah. Oh, it'll be like a rock, like a rock show. I guess it's because it's around four. I don't know that you're going to get as much cocoa supported as you think. I could be a, that could be a weird one. Why? Also the serve stuff you're saying Zach is is obviously completely correct, but why don't I buy it? Why do I feel like it could rear its head at any moment again? So it could, it feels like it could come back at any moment, but I do feel like she can like outlast the players she's facing in those first few rounds without it. Like I mean, we talked about this for like three years now, and yet she's still a top five player in the world because she's still able to just kind of push through it. So yeah, I'm hoping it's just gone, but if it does come up in the earlier rounds, I think she'll be fine. Yalo would be a really tough test though in match four. She does not have her best stuff. Yovic against Yalo is a really good match around three though. They're very good friends. Yeah. Yovic and Yalo would be a great match in round three. I think we'll see it. Yeah, and they are great friends. Let's say real quick for Zach's purposes since he has Pagula locked in, which again, I think actually that's I have a pretty close to the most likely. She's just behind several like I just because of the numbers for the for me as the most likely representative in the final in the top half. I'd probably have her around plus 200 to plus 225 against Yiga Pagula that is. So she'd be a pretty decent dog for me against Yiga. I'd have her similarly and like the plus 200 range against Coco. I'd have her in the plus 180 range against Osaka. And I think. So I think ultimately she's in a deep cold spot in that final if it's a if it's a player of quality. Yeah. Here's who I ended up with. Well, first of all, the shiotech to win it all at seven to one. I ended up with two quarter bets. One you'll like one you'll think is ridiculous. And it's some of a Q three, which even if you disagree, I think you understand. I hope you're right. Yeah. And again, this all comes down to to me. The half of that bracket ends up being an Isomov versus Andreva. And I think an Isomova wins that. And I just think Coco has too many pesky opponents to get through on her side. I don't know that Coco even gets to that quarter final match, but we shall see. But I'm on an Isomova at four to one. I steered clear of the Pagula's fiddling in the Mojave Q2. I steered clear of the Yiga. So I will say by the numbers, Benchich probably is the best value in Q4 at 12 to one. If you believe in in Benchich by the, by the sheer numbers, she's probably the best value. The other quarter bet besides the Isomov and Q3 at four to one that I met is in the Sabalanka, same sort of theory as, you know, isolating the Jokovic quarter on the men's side, isolating Sabalankas troubles. And this is packed with cost-juck at Nošková and Schneider in towns, and I ended up going with that 14 to one. Ready? Barbara Kragicova, who has one two slams, by the way, grass and clay never hard. I like Kragicova at 14 to one. It was a numbers play. Her numbers are not great, but not bad either. Kragicova year-long and six months in terms of her raw numbers, 104.8, one year 105.66 month. I mean, she's up there in these numbers. And she is a really difficult out. She's mentally steely. I like her at that number at 14 to one. I just drew it on. Just play her head to head against Sabalank and call it a day, man. Call it a day. I don't know that she's coming through. I don't know that she's coming through a young player. I mean, maybe she does. I had no disrespect to her game at all. She's criminally underrated always. Always. Tough match up for her against Schneider, potentially, in fourth round, tough match against Kostya, potentially, in the quarterfinal. Maybe I might be given Nozkova some short shrift here, but I don't think she makes much of a run here. So I think Kostya is clean through her section to the quarterfinals there and whoever comes through, if they're a little beaten up, I think is going down. So I'll call Kostya Kovr Schneider at the top of Q1, Pagula over Muhova in Q2, Pagula over Kostya to reach the final. And then my prediction, I don't want to co-tail your ego, you know, I can't be on your corner here. I'm not going to be sad for you if she wins. I'll be happy. I'll be happy. I'm not going to be sad for me. I'll be happy for you. I'm not going to be sad for you. I mean, we, I'm, well, I'm, I mean, at that point, the women's are all, are like dominated by three names. Oh, you might, we might have to, this might, it may never have happened in the open era. Oh, no. I found a year. Oh, you did, okay. I found a year. Guess. 1967. 2014. 2014. Oh, really? 2014 on the women's side. Okay. Lena won the Australian Open. Peripova won the French Petric Vittava won Wimbledon and Serena won the U.S. Open and on the men's side, this is the one anomalous year where Varenko won the Australian Open and chillich won the U.S. Open and it was Rafa and Novak in between. Okay. So we'll save the second time in the open era. That's right. That's right. That's our, that's our stat we're going with. We don't care if it's wrong. That's right. But that's the one exception because you're right before that, all you have to do is scan down the men's side. It just doesn't happen. Right? No. As long as Federer was playing tennis, only time before the most recent time before that, that four different guys wanted to slam each slam in tennis, you go back to the Andy Roddick year of 2003, Andre Agassi, Juan Carlos Ferrerro, Roger Federer and Andy Roddick. Amazing. Yeah. That's, that's men's tennis. Do you guys watch any of Andy and Fed, Fed play? Oh, no, but I heard it was great. I don't know why Fed's not on tour. He can still play. Instant top five player. He can still play. Yeah. Roddick, Roddick could beat some of these guys in the top 102, for sure. I saw someone say he could beat GMP, but he probably could. Yeah, he definitely could beat GMP. So much for sure. Yeah, for sure. That kind of player. Yeah. Do we get all the quarters, all your bets? Yes. I think we mentioned all. Let me, let me ask, same question I asked about the men's side. Most random name that could get far. Ooh. Ladies. Sarah Bieleck for me, and she's in the cocoa part. That would mean the end of cocoa, if that happened. I want to say, I thought Talia Gibson was one that could go pretty far. But I think that, uh, she has a talk. Anybody, anybody have any love for Taylor Townsend? Has the answer to that question? No. No. I think so. Okay. Ladies first round match is, we did a little perusal. By the way, Townsend and Schwellenska in the first round. We did a little perusal of the men's first round matchups. I'm looking at the God's loans, Steve. There's one. There's one. Oh, hold on. Hold on. Oh, let me guess what it is. Hold on. Uh, it's not Alexander Ova Kessler. That's not your banger. It doesn't really have long-term implications, but it's a really good round one match of names. You are talking about, this is fun on a podcast. I guess somebody said what somebody else is thinking. You are talking about, I don't know, tell me. But Dosa Kassakina. Oh, I haven't gotten there yet. Yeah. But Dosa, so okay. What's more likely that Badosa walks off the court with an injury if she trails, where the match goes to completion? Kassakina is playing a lot better than she was. Yeah. I would say that could see Badosa retiring for sure. I have a Kassakina as a pretty healthy favorite there. I don't think that's going to be a very competitive one. Oh, she's plus one 15 in that match, first round match. Plus one 15 is a price there. Yeah. I haven't looked at the prices for around one. I haven't looked around for the first time. That's one 15, huh? That's what it is. That's what it is. A lot of respect for Badosa. My goodness. Siniacava Kojirreto is a good little match. I love Siniacava's not playing as well. The men's first rounders are a little more interesting, generally speaking, Zainab Sanmez any chance against Coco? I mean, that's tricky. Yeah. That's my favorite of the round one, women's matches. It's just in terms of entertainment. Yeah. Sanmez 10 to 1 to win that outwriter, even greater than that. Roosa scares me as a pagula backer. Who is she playing? She's a pagula against Roosa in the first round. Elena Gabriela Rousse. Yeah. Emma Navarro, not a name we brought up. Do we give her any juice here at all? I don't. I don't. I was drinking around three. Yeah. I don't have her. I don't have her. Um, you know what a name we should mention. Please. Because we don't know where the hell she's going to land. Genshin went. Oh. Genshin qualified. Right. She punched her ticket. She's going to be one of these Q spots. I'm sure where the best possible spot for her is, but, um, you know, among, um, in, in rich tradition of, um, eating the book, uh, tennis podcast history. We have to name the name so we can at least say we mentioned her. That's, that's right. We don't want the markhead of Vonder Sova debauched to happen. Yes. Exactly. We also said Gregor Demetriol for the band. Uh, no, we don't need to, he was pretty good in qualifying. He came through via walkover. So he's not even really that exhausted by, by the way, Vonder Sova. Four year band for, uh, not, yeah, for, for saying that she didn't, you know, that she wasn't going to, uh, that it wasn't about her not wanting to do the, uh, the doping test. But then they have her text messages where she refers to the doper, uh, doping tester as a seaword. That's fun. Yeah. That's great. Um, is Jay should give her some grace then. Yeah. She, I mean, should be four years for God's sakes. No. So when she won Wimble, then I said to Drew afterwards, I got Drew. We need to mention Vonder Sova, the party as he goes, why would we have, this is a great one. She had one two grass matches in her life before she won that title. Uh, is Zheng Xinwen, by the way, Qion, WN for those who, uh, who are, who are not tennis horrors. Is she the fun, sacred draper of the women's side at this point? I don't know that her injuries are going to be long lasting. It just feels like she's something kind of, she's having a tough time getting old. Over right now, uh, draper, if we never see draper play tennis again, I'm not going to be surprised. It seems like what's going on with him is, is pretty troubling. Yeah. Um, and, uh, you know, Fonseca, I just meant in terms of like buzz. Yeah. Um, well, I mean, she won a gold medal. She did do this. She's, and, uh, you know, any, you know, I think, um, roll on caros, by the way, rolling caros. Yeah. Um, when Ega was untouchable on Clay, she, uh, she was the only one to, it's right. Give her a real test. Um, so the quality is there. And, you know, just the fact that she brings the Chinese audience into tennis is good for the sports. So I'll always, I'll always support buzz there. Though I, I think I said this on a previous podcast, Zach, you'll correct me. Cause I think I think I remember saying that at Indian Wells, which I try to go to every year. By the way, Indian Wells WTA finals at Indian Wells this year in November. Yeah. Get a ticket. Um, but that, uh, the standard Indian Wells, the fifth major, tennis paradise. Uh, I went to one of the matches was, uh, and by the way, I recommend anybody who ever wants to go. You like see center and Alcarazan, Sabalankan, Ega, and like a 24 hour period. It's amazing. But, uh, Jenshin, when, have you ever seen her warm up before a match? Oh my god. Yeah. She pisses off her opponent. Oh, yeah. It's like burp. This is warming up. What are you doing? Yeah. Like, like, uh, Vika as a rango, by the way, where is Vika as a rango? She was like, what was, what the hell is going on here? Yeah. Uh, interesting. Last, uh, quick comment on Indian Wells. Please. Um, if you care about tennis, um, I, please support the, in the WTA finals at Indian Wells, if we could make this a hundred long standing event happening there. So it would be, uh, it would be good for me personally. Do it. I'm trying, I'm trying to get a contract to the sales, the sales pitch is easier than you could possibly imagine, um, the single best month to visit the California High Desert or the low desert is November. It is beautiful right there, unbelievable sunset, very, very, uh, very pleasant temperatures, still warming up during the day that you can get in the pool, cool enough at night that you can, you can bust out the, you know, the, uh, the, um, you know, the, the best parts of your wardrobe. Uh, it is, uh, uh, it is a great time to visit the desert. And, um, you know, I think, um, if you've been on the fence, uh, let me help you push you right the hell over here. Here I thought this was like this neverland pro tennis, uh, pitch and it's like, uh, it kind of would help me out. I've been there every year. I've just, it's just going to be a delight. It wasn't Saudi Arabia for a spell and that's why we have worse time, time to, it's terrible time for those matches like, uh, yeah, but you, but you said it right there. They're acting like this is a one year, one time deal. They're not committing to it beyond this year. I will totally go. Yeah. If they come out of this and they're like, whoa, what a success we got to do this every year. But it's during football season. So this is the Friday morning after the show, quick trip to Palm Springs, come back late Saturday night early Sunday morning, gotta do it. Yeah. Yeah. Or just go during the week. That's what I want to do. It's going to be the round robin part of it is probably going to be the more entertaining I would guess. Some of us have to be up it for 55 and a little show. I can't really know the mill a week unless they let me, but, you know, there's the powers of be that might want to, that's right, might want you to be there boots on the ground. It's right. Well, why not? Well, this is going to bed in prediction markets, so we're stuck here in the van. Anything else? Women's are men's. Did we miss any point on any of this? Are we covered at all? I don't think so. I guess it's just kind of if you're betting match by match, be just conscientious of how much time these players are spending on the court during the heat of the day. Who has, by the way, breaks the difference, yeah? To that point. Where do you go for the easiest match length stat data? Well, I just use the tennis abstract hours and minutes chronicle there. And yeah, I mean, I, you know, it's not, it's a, this one, this one particular tournament because they do put so many of the high profile matches at night, but then they do you just randomly sprinkle some in during the day, you know, like all matches are not created equal in terms of fatigue. So like a four hour match that starts in that dusk versus a four hour match that's in the heat of the day on the grandstand court. Like that has a different effect on players. So just track that and you'll find a couple of edges throughout the tournament. I think there is a new heat rule. I don't know if we talked about that. But we did that actually. Yeah. 86 degrees, 10 minute break, 90 degrees suspension. At the US Open. I believe so. Wow. The thing is, it's not the temperature. It's the humidity. I think there was, yeah, there was, I think it'll be sad because it wasn't just tempered blood. The wet, wet, wet, there can really, really wreck, wreck people. That is what it is. Wet bulb, globe temperature, 86. Oh, oh, that's it. That's, that's, that's, that's low. Oh, no. So there's going to be, so we're, there's going to be no tennis. No tennis in two for two weeks. Oh, boy. Yeah. Wow. They thought of everything. I hope it's pleasant. Does this feel like it's sinner induced, even though he's not playing that feels like his, I mean, did he know about this? Is it too late for him not to withdraw? I don't know. Yeah. That was the weirdest part to me is that he didn't wait a couple more days. If, like, why not just with the draw at the last? I know it best as everything up. But the draw is the last second. I mean, I think, I think we know it's because he's, he's, because he's scared. This is my, this is my favorite take on the US Open is the first one we started with, which is Drew's immediate, like, looking at, like, Gen X or, or, excuse me, not Gen X, but looking down at millennials or, or Gen Z, where he's in his mouth and say, you, you open the podcast with this is now over half a decade we've been doing this. What it means that just in general, the chronicling of this matters for the legacy of these players. Agree. There's no universe where Senator accomplishes enough in his career right now that I'm going to ever consider him in the same conversation as the big three. Agree. The doping test is a factor, even though I know some of the big three probably did some things that were over the line. And we won't go there, but they probably did. And you put the, you know, the doping test is a, is a black mark, the, you know, the inability to prepare for the heat at rolling garros is a black mark. And then this, you know, flaking on this tournament when they're field is so weak is just what, what are we doing? Also, I mean, it just also from, if you're him and you're on his team, you have five slams. You have five slams already. What if you end up with 18 or 19 and you're like, God, I wish I had played that tournament that one year? That's, to me, that's the biggest thing, which makes you wonder, how does Jokovych feel about, not playing in that Australian open that he would have been like minus 200 in? There's a couple of what ifs for Jokovych and if he lands on 24, he might have some soul searching to do about a couple he missed. The COVID Australian openness, what are you referring to? Yeah, and 2021. Yeah, he would have walked, that would have been a walk over for him. And what was it? He actually traveled to Australia, right? And then they turned away. Yeah, couldn't get through, couldn't get through border security because of the rules at the time. Yeah, I don't know if he regrets that one. He made quietly to himself, but he'll never admit that. Yeah, Drew Densik, name of the podcast is The Deep Dive. He does it with Andy Molotori. He's got lunch to get to with Andy here. Great podcast. By the way, they do serious NFL deep dives here this time of year almost through all 32. You're almost there. Yeah, we got one left, one left, 31 out of 32 and both. Who gets the booby prize in the last team? Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He saved the NFC cell for last. Check out The Deep Dive. Wherever you get your podcast, they do a great job. We'll underscore Kapper for Drew. Zach is at, um, is at betting on X. Zach, I always botched this because besides Veecin, you've worked for different tennis outlets. What's the breadth of them now? What will we say? Just some videos here and there for tennis, Chadda, less than usual. So it's really all Veecin. They've, they've backed off the betting, huh? A tennis channel. They've backed off editorial. I don't know if you saw that. If you go to tennis.com, it scores only. Jeez. And yet on the broadcast, they'll mention it. Well, maybe not on, yeah, tennis channel, they, they mentioned like fan dual odds all the time, don't they? Yeah, they have, they still have those partnerships for like the tournaments themselves, but it's a different content now. Okay. Um, Zach does great work. Appreciate you both. Thank you for listening, whether you are watching on Twitter, live realist, do as in podcast form. Uh, good luck with all your bets, the US Open 2026 final slam of the year. Thanks for listening.