Beating The Book: 2026 NFL Week 2 MegaPod Betting Preview

college football is back. Nonpoly market. You can trade what you think will happen against other fans before kickoff. Think your school's finally going all the way. Of course you do. See what other fans think. Chat live with the polymarket community. Then take your own stance. Once the game starts, keep trading live and exit whenever you want or combine multiple trades into one with polymarket combos live now in the app. college football isn't all though. Trade on baseball, basketball, hockey, combat sports, tennis and more. Download the polymarket app. New customers use code Pylon deposit $10 and get $50 instantly to start trading. 18 plus C terms of service for information, restrictions and eligibility. The polymarket app is an independent affiliate of polymarket US and not CFTC regulated. Trading is risky. Complete loss can occur. Intro offer is a non withdrawalable trading only credit. First time depositors only. My day kicks off of the refreshing Celsius energy drink. Then straight to the gym pre-capic up back home to meal prep. Time for my fire session shift. One more Celsius kind of keep the lights on. When the three alarm hits, I'm ready. Celsius, live, fit, go. Grab a cold refreshing Celsius at your local retailer or locate now at Celsius.com. No down there. It is the beating the book Megapod week number two in the national football league. Thank you for watching. Thank you for listening. Gill Alexander year number 16 of the Megapod and we will do Tim Lawson Megapod historian has things to say about the guest that we have on the show today as well. He will have little bits for every guest at the top of every show this year on the Megapod. But first before we introduce him, the staples of the show from his. The cork addict somewhere there in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, the great Todd Wischneff star of the Showtime Docu series action tennis aficionado not so great with his picks as it turned out a week one, but he got very unlucky. I will give him that. How you don't tidy. Yeah, I did really get very unlucky. I mean, we were talking about it yesterday under 40 and a half in the browns could have possibly one had they not got the back door touched down green Bay plus one and a half was a travesty of justice. On the three penalty drive, including a roughing the pastor that may have been the worst roughing the pastor I have ever seen. And I have no problem with them calling roughing the pastor when the guy grounds the guy into the ground that is not what happened. And then the lines were up 21 nothing and get them minus seven and I fourth and 12 to end that game. The cornerback comes in with a free shot on shot can't do it. So I end up with a nice o and three, but I might as well give the guys a little bit of an opportunity to get a little lead because it's just it's a little easy. So you know, whatever. Yeah. By the way, my heart goes out to a guy who lost a season based on a guy. Please, please don't interrupt me. Please. Thank you. I want to apologize for interrupting a lot last week. I was shot out of a cannon because I drank a monster drink right before the show because I played tennis for two and a half hours. I was too many interruptions by me and I apologize for all my interruptions last week. I will try to do a better job with that this week, although I just got interrupted. So I'm now o and one on interrupt. I'm getting interrupted. Thank you. I don't think you got interrupted so much as there was an audio lag, but thank you for the apology. I'm sure everybody appreciates it. Let's let's try to split the difference and find a little happy place in between the high energy and the low energy that we're getting right now. I think that's probably the sweet spot. I was on with his. I was on a red. I'm exhausted. So I'm very tired. I know you are. Do my best. I know you are. Thank you, Toddie. Same. Same shirt. I notice as well. He went one and two. His signature one and two last week. Will Hill was happening. Sorry about that. Fucked up introduction to give, but you know what? On the week two. If Donald doesn't get hurt, probably two and one. I just feel good that some of the ones I was thinking about. I yapped all summer about Minnesota. I shouldn't have gone with that, although to Todd's point. I'm not sure that was even the right side, even though they won, but you could also say they lost your quarterback and still won. So you know who cares on the week two bigger and better things here at least a night last place. There you go. And our guests this week on the show, kind enough to do this pod at least once a year. Appreciate it comes on a numbers game as well. Our Megapod historian. Let me see if I can find this now our Megapod historian Tim Lawson has this to say he said this is Cleves fifth appearance on the beating the book Megapod fifth appearance. His first episode was week 15 of 2022. We typically hear from Cleve around week five, but he joins us today for his earliest appearance to date. Cleves Megapod picks improve year to year started o and three in his debut one in two in 2023 to back to back two and ones and he joins us today looking to take that last step forward to three and oh, it is cleave TA. Maybe the finest pro football follow on Twitter is how you doing TA what's happening man. I know I appreciate going to be back and I thought when you said well was one and two, I figured the two one of the two had to be the Titans, but I'm surprised that was not one. At least there's some good news this year. I lost a lot of Titans last year early in the year. So I can feel will will there. So, but I appreciate you having me. Thank you for thank you for taking the time. Todd, you are the court stenographer full records beyond. Go ahead. I'll let you say it's really the ice man cometh is ahead at two and one. He had the Raiders Seattle on the Niners only losing Seattle. So, good job by Gilly at two and one Willie. We've already talked about his one and two, but he had a great cards plus ten boy if he had money line on that wow that had been good. I we already talked about my own three and Stevie Fessick as the guest last week one of the most self proclaimed geniuses of geniuses went one and two for the guest chair with the Colts an absolute whiff. The Cardinals a good play and under 50 and a half with his early season. It can't go over nonsense. So one and two for Stevie on the teaser side. Gilly gets a push in his teaser because he had jets plus seven and a half which covered by the headlines minus one so he gets an O O and one on teasers me and Willie take absolutely evil losses because we both had packer seven and a half. As our lay as one of our legs it's almost impossible that it lost so that's O and one for us and the guest Stevie did win his teasers he's one on teasers so that's where we are after week one the pressure is on TA okay for the guest to have a good record because they are trying to keep their championship going because they won the championship the guest see last year. Okay here's the deal so we'll get to our best bets three best bets full game totals full game sides those were you're loud nothing else derivative allowed on the three picks on the megapon we always start the show though not last week but now that we're in season we start the show with some staples but before we even do that I want to say some because you you texted something pretty interesting. Sunday I thought Todd which was when the bears were busy beating Caroline a fifty nine to thirty seven and then there's all these other high scoring games. From you know from that being the pinnacle of it but you said something interesting I'll add on to it's all sort of paraphrase into one sense which is all these high scoring games and it was the the highest scoring week one in NFL since since the merger anyway nineteen seventy AFL NFL merger. There's the unbelievable ability now with these new balls for these kickers these field goal kickers to routinely make field goals from between fifty five to fifty nine yards guys that are just out of college right making fifty five to fifty nine yards no problem so that shortens the field cheapens the points. And then there's these kickoff returns right like I want to do guessing lines first guessing lies are ever study you go through all the play by play and there was at least like five to ten super long kickoff returns which you know buttresses or ads on compliments if you will everything else that we just talked about you said Todd you're like you know they score all these points it makes it less interesting to you I thought that was pretty interesting. But it's also not just that they score all these points it's that the drives are so long that the game just becomes okay each team gets five possessions and that's it and you know you either you either make them happen you don't I mean I'm I'm going I'm being a little ridiculous by saying five positions but I mean the cowboys had the ball two times in the second half against the giants I mean it's ridiculous how they they just have shortened the game with these long possessions and. On the other hand nobody can stop anybody so basically the the amount of percentage of possessions at end in points is a ridiculously high percentage and it becomes uninteresting to me and I'd much rather have football where there's a chance the defense can get a stop I mean on the drive that me and Willie got screwed on in Minnesota they had they had holding on third down the lead to a first down they had the ridiculous roughing the faster than another you know illegal contact to keep the drive alive. You can't get a stop in the NFL it's I mean it's just ridiculous did the bills and and and Texans even pun and the Texas of the best defense mostly in the league I find it completely uninteresting. TA is there a is there a gambling tie into this that you can even make definitively or we just have to kind of endure it. Yeah, I think it's just the way it is now with the short and kickoff city. and in the kickers being able to kick for so far, I mean, you're literally talking like one completion, like, way, you get 15, 20 yards in your field of range. So I kind of agree with Todd there. Just in terms of, there's no effort to score points. Like you have to, you should be able to earn the ability to score points. I mean, you should need a couple of first downs before you're able to, you know, at least get in field of range. And so, yeah, I mean, last week was interesting because we had gone, I think ever since COVID week one was the single lowest scoring week for a number of years. And so that was pretty unique that we saw such a high scoring output. The tackle was horrible. Again, the lack of preseason was really affecting these teams, I think, from a defensive standpoint, we saw them on a night, could not tackle Kenneth Walker. And that's a really good defense, too, like in Denver. So, you know, I think things will normalize, but yeah, just the ability of these offenses to get to short fields and be able to get it. At least three points kind of in their back pocket without doing much, I think really tilts the favorites of the offense. Yeah. And so, yeah, go ahead, we'll, sorry. I think we played the results a little bit because, you know, what was the takeaway after Seahawks Patriots and then Rams 49 as well? These teams aren't scoring week ones and under week. It's because they don't practice and the offenses are out of sync. There's no rhythm. And then when the defense is bad, you have people like Tom and Well, there's no rhythm, they don't tackle on defense. So, people blame no training or no preseason and guys not playing in preseason, whether the games are low scoring or high scoring, we just kind of fit our narrative around what happens. But, I mean, we talked about it last year with the scoring and just how easy it is where, let's just say you score with 16 seconds left to go up one point. And you hit the extra point, you're up one point, you're kicking off. You're like a coin flip to win the game because you're gonna start at the 34. You're gonna throw a 12-yard pass and you're, if not and feel go range on your own 46, you just need another little like five yard out but it's very hard to stop a five yard out. I don't know what the solution is. - Yeah. - And if the NFL thinks it a problem, it thinks it's a problem where maybe, and I've heard this, I forget who proposed it, if you miss a fuel goal, instead of the other team gets the ball at the spot, you move back another 20 yards and they get better feel position and you penalize miss fuel goals, other than that, I mean, I guess we're just gonna keep seeing this. - What do you mean, we certainly don't-- - We just want the goalposts in. - What is so hard for that? - We can move the goalposts in two feet on each side or three feet on each side or whatever. It's too easy to kick a feel goal. That's the other thing I didn't even touch on and Gilly, you made the great point that I also talked about and Cleve just said it, of course. It's ridiculous. A 60 yard feel goal is now like, oh yeah, I'll probably make it. It's ridiculous. So just why can't you just make the feel goalpost in tighter? So it makes it harder to kick a feel goal. Yeah, just, I mean, that's not a tough solution. Yeah, you mean narrow the, narrow the distance in between the left and right goalpost, yeah. - I would suggest it would become a lot harder to make a 60 yard feel goal if you had only two feet less on each side or three feet less on each other, whatever it is, they could do the testing to try to figure out exactly what it is. But this is ridiculous. - And also I would say, I do think we're starting to see it's kind of like the made-to-leaf baseball. You're getting a lot of these younger guys into analytics and especially on the offense side that are trying to be as efficient as possible. Like they're passing more on early downs. They're going for it more on the fourth downs. Like they're trying to create those mismatches. Like you saw Teclan Doyle coming in through the Ben Johnson trees. So we're starting to see a little bit more of that as well, Liam Cohen too. Like these younger guys with offensive minds that are really trying to attack the defenses, I think, are heading to. I don't know, I will might be right. We're just kind of fitting the narrative. - Maybe, maybe. - Cleaves right in that fourth and two from midfield. In the old days, you know what, you pond. We know a lot of the younger guys. You pin 'em deep, play defense. Fourth and two from midfield, you pond. You down 'em at the four, that kills and over. Now fourth and two midfield, you either get it. You get a big play in your scoring range or you don't get it in the other teams in scoring range. So the fourth and one, fourth and two and three pond from midfield is no longer a thing and that just means more points. - And look, there's less defensive guys now. As hand coaches, it's less time bowls of the world. Even the Miko Ryan's went for it a couple of times last week, which he never does. He was more aggressive. So, you know, there's a little bit more of that as well. I don't know, at least kind of a combination. But, you know, Joe Brady. Now, take it over for Shalman, Dermott. He's still love punting and being conservative. So, maybe some of the offensive guys are taking over a little bit more. - We don't want to be the people who waited all summer for football and then are complaining about football right off the top. But I did think it was an interesting comment from Todd that day because I did not disagree. I'm like, yeah, I kind of hear what you're saying. Let's do Dumbo over the week. We'll get to the best bets here. But we got to do Dumbo over the week at any endgame, Todd wants to talk about. Dumbo over the week. I'm putting it up to vote. Do we want to combine pro and college on this? 'Cause I have three candidates. Shall we do that? - Oh, let's go. - I guess we don't know how to say Texas. The other is plenty there. - Yeah, let's do it to me. - Let's do it to me. - My choices are how to stay alone. But that was a good point of the lot. - All right, well, the choices are Todd Munkin, head coach Cleveland Browns, 24 to nothing Jacksonville, 6/18 left in the second quarter. Browns at midfield, fourth and sixth, punt. Okay, that was the first one. And then Todd Munkin says, wait a minute, I can do it again. 31 to nothing Jacksonville, 1208 left in the third quarter. Cleveland from the Jacksonville, 23 after a 74 yard Raheem Sanders kickoff return. Munkin says, let's sell for the Andre Schmidt, 26 yard field, we'll make it 31 to three. So he's got two. Robert Salah is your second candidate, head coach New York. Excuse me, Tennessee Titans pardon me, playing the jets. 20 to three jets, 4/33 left in the third quarter. Tennessee, fourth and nine at the jets of 43 with a 109 left in the third, punt. And plus territory at the 43 punt. And it was a touchback, by the way. That's candidate number two. And then number three is the Ryan Day, Steve Sarkiesian debacle, which is just, I mean, I don't even know, that to me more than anything, I don't know if we'll see a worse play from coaches or worse, were strategic play calling from coaches for those who missed it, which I'd probably not many people. But Texas left time available on their play clock, first and goal from the one around 103 left in the game. They left eight seconds on their play clock. Texas could have drained another six or seven seconds before snapping, also could have taken the play clock down, use one of their time outs. Those seconds obviously going to be pretty important at the end. And then that was just the first one, right? Then it was clearly Ohio State should have let Texas score on first and goal. Ryan Day is still defending that. That was obviously his big blunder. But Steve Sarkiesian was like, oh, no, no, I got one more in me. They're their catastrophic driver. They're borderline catastrophic clock management. They snapped third and goal with 28 seconds on the game clock. 17 seconds on the play clock, pardon me, while possessing all three time outs. Obviously this should have let that run down and called time out, run their third down play. But instead they left 25 seconds on the clock and Julian, saying if you remember, heaved the ball down field. And they almost got right back in field goal possession. So those two guys, that was a tour de force of Dumbo of the week. Who's the vote for, guys? Who you got? - I was going to say, so Ohio State, well, you give me a lot. I felt that fell a little bit personal, two browns and one of Ohio State's option for the Cleveland Ohio guy. But yeah, it's Ryan Day to me. And this has been lingering for a number of years. Like guys are great recruiter. I mean, the talent there is unbelievable. But he just makes so many late game mistakes. He's been like against Indiana. If you remember, it was like a fourth and one with like a minute and a half left and he decided to attempt a fuel goal instead of goal for it. Even if you would have made the fuel goal, Indiana would have plenty of time to come down and still win that game. So that made no sense and they missed a chip shot. And then now, you know, this time around, you didn't even mention, he punted. I think it was early in the fourth or late in the third on the Texas 39, it was a fourth and four. And he pointed to that and you had that earlier. So he just got conservative, which he usually does. And then like you mentioned, so the sequence is the Texas got, it was a 20 yard line. There's about a minute 30 left. Ohio State only had two time outs left. And the Texas runs a three yard play with second and seven. And so day calls time out to preserve clock. Now, okay, I wouldn't have done that, but that's okay. I understand, you know, he wants to get the ball back and have enough time. Well, then the next play, Texas gets it down to the one. And instead of, you know, letting him score at that point, they would have had over a minute left and a time out, he decides to call time out and then try to stop them from scoring. And then, you know, obviously, would ensued with the Texas, you know, with Sarkey's in an arch at the end. I mean, it was one of those where you either had to commit to just letting him score and getting the ball back. Yeah, enough time, or you're just going to say, I'm going to try and stop them and I don't care. And he was kind of in between, he tried to throw the needle and he was wrong on both ends. So he just, he continually does this and it's really frustrating as Ohio State finish. So that would be my vote. I think it's Ryan Sarkey's. Both of them. Salah wants pretty bad too. I mean, that's what he'd do in fourth and seventh with that considering time is cool. That's really bad. But there's been a tiny in game for us before we do the best. The goal, what about this is making love to the goal post? I mean, what is that? I mean, how dumb are these guys? It's just amazing. It's unbelievable. Seem consensual though. Seem consensual. It did. It did. It did. It did seem consensual. I know we're allowed to include players. Is that part of the bag of pod Sasha? Oh, I forget. I'd probably be kidding. That, by the way, was for those who missed it, Skins got within, Skins got within two points of the Eagles. Let me just finish the thought. Skins got within two points of the Eagles were going to go for two, but because Diggs bear hugged the goalpost, it was a 48 yard extra point that ensued. Skins did get another chance for a two-point conversion later that failed miserably, and the Eagles won. I'm sorry, Tom. Guy and the Cowboys did it too, though. By the way, sticks the ball out, costs them an extra point. Yes. What do you guys do? Yes. On his way into the end zone down. Down 14, taunting. Let me see what I can do here to just mess this up and Brandon Aubrey missed the 48 yard extra point. So, kept him eight down at that point. Any in-game, Toddi? Yeah, just talk about two. One night did something really stupid and one where I did something really smart. The stupid one was the chiefs. It was seven seven and the chiefs midway through the second quarter. They had just had a couple. They had the first two touches that happened pretty early. Then midway through the second quarter, nothing happened for a while. I wanted to play under, but I thought maybe I should play under chiefs team total under 20 and a half. Whether I was going to be right or wrong, it's not the right time to play under mid-second quarter. This is something Stevie Feseck taught me actually years ago. You just shouldn't play under in-game with eight minutes left in the second quarter. Even though the algorithm has those points in there, the end of the first half is always can very often be a very high scoring time because everyone's trying to score at the end of the, there's extra possessions obviously at the end of that first half. Even though I wasn't going to win the chiefs team total either way, it's just a stupid time to do it. If you want the under, get under pretty quick or if not, you probably wait until half time. I mean, I probably wouldn't want anyways, but I'm just saying it was just a stupid time to do it. I know not to do that and sometimes I violate my own rules, so that was a bad idea. On the good side, the Cardinals are up 13/7 at the half versus the chargers. If you looked at, if you're watching that game carefully, the Cardinals had been stopped 0.0 times. They were just moving the ball up and down the field. If you remembered it from last year, there were oftentimes early in the season, the Cardinals were a real football team and could move the ball on teams, even good teams. Late in the year, they had a lot of injuries and then it was much tougher for them. They would just do it in the back door touchdown scenarios, but early in the year, they were able to move and they were moving it on the chargers and you often see this. So they're up 13/7, they're getting seven and a half second half, meaning they're plus one and a half for the game. In order to win by seven and a half and a half, you have to get stops. The charger wouldn't get any stops. So I thought even if they lose this game, even if the Cardinals, it's going to be by one because they're down six. They're probably not going to lose by more. Of course, that came into fruition, but it's an interesting scenario to think like a lot of people think, "Oh, the better team is going to come back and have them." It doesn't happen as often as you think in the NFL. In college, maybe, in the NFL, that first half can be very, very telling and just because the team is a better team. Now, I'm not talking about a situation where the weaker team is up because they got an interception or a fumble or something like that. I'm talking about where they legitimately earned it. There's not enough time and a half time to make the adjustments often in the NFL and you see those underdogs, and that's why we get underdog wins all the time in the NFL. I like it. All right, best bets. I have an insurmountable lead already, Todd on pace for 0 and 54. We always start with the, we always start with the guest, though. By the way, cleavetay, I probably should have said this top, cleavaneletics.com. There's a free pro football guide in there which still applies to the NFL season, even a week into it, and he also has, does cost a little bit, but it's so worth it. A survivor optimizer, which is just an unbelievable tool. You can talk about it when we get to the survivor segment, I guess, cleav. Nonpoly market. Of course you do. Chat live with the polymarket community then. Take your own stance. College football isn't all, though. New customers use code Pylon, deposit $10 and get $50 instantly to start trading. Trading is risky. Intro offer is a non withdrawable trading only credit. It's time to positors only. Why do people ignore trick or treaters? Do they not have treats or do they not want to share their races? Perhaps it's true. Everything happens for a reason. But time for best bets. What do you got first, man? Thursday night game, though, right? Don't we have to do Thursday night? Oh, yeah. Let's do Thursday night. I wish I knew the format of this podcast. It's your first podcast. Give them a break. I think I'm going to use this. What do we have for the total? I'm going to go with the over 54 and a half, mostly. We're talking, we're talking lions and bills here. Great. Thursday night game, by the way. Total is 54 and a half, yes. Yeah. I'll go over. I know it's a high total, but you know what these teams played late in 2024. It was 48, 42. This is a new field. So maybe there's an issue with the track where you know what? The defender doesn't know where they're going. The offensive player does. That's always an advantage for the offense. Both teams scored 30 last week. Both teams gave up 30 last week. I know a lot can go wrong with the total this high. One six, seven minute drive where you settle for a field goal or somebody goes forward on fourth down and doesn't get it. That really takes a big chunk of the clock out and it feels like you just have to constantly be scoring with the total this high. Both what we saw last week from both these offenses and both these defenses. I think there's a lot of questions about both these defenses. I'm going to go over here. I think the lines are going to be an over team. A lot of concerns about their secondary and I'm not sure how good the bills are on defense. So I will go over here. The big number here. 54 and a half. I thought Todd was going to jump in. Okay. Over 54 and a half for Willie using his Thursday and I bet leave anything Thursday night or no? Yeah. Well, I've got personally I've got Buffalo minus three and a half in pocket, as they say. And then a little bit at four and a half, I know it's. The number is ballooned a little bit too much. And you know, I'd post this on Twitter. Yes. It's all the time. Short week off. There's a night or off Sunday to Thursday night football like the Lions off of a no T game. They're on the field. The defense is on the field for like 85 plays, which is a substantial amount of plays. And so typically you see these teams wear it out in the next game, especially when they're traveling on the road. I think six and 25 against the spread for playing a short week off Monday night for the last 25 years. And it's like not even close from an ATS margin. When you go on the road, it's even worse, like three and 13. So, you know, obviously Detroit qualifies and it's only week two. So you have to factor that into like how, how much does that affect them so early in the year? But for me personally more than that, because I would never blindly play a trend like that. I just think that the Lions, you know, we saw they really struggled offensively. It was pretty bad. I mean, the Saints could have moved the ball early in the game. They just dropped a bunch of, a bunch of pass. I think they dropped more passes and shook had completions in that first half. And then second half out a little about the Lions are my only issue with Will's player or the over the Lions are really amassed on the offensive line. They're already beat up coming in. Both the rookie offensive tackle, Blake Miller has not practiced yet. Neither has their starting guard Christian Mahogany. So they likely didn't be with two backups on that offensive line on top of their center backup. As it is, Kagan Maize is out for a while. So that's an issue and I do think they're going to try to run the ball on this bill's defense. So you might get a lot of clock being chewed with the one game. So you need a lot of explosives to get that over, but that would be my only issue there. But I just think the number is ballooned enough, but you know, it's probably out of whack, but I do like the bills generally speaking, but not one of your best bets. No. Okay. Or with your first best bet then, wait, can I say something? Yes. Yeah. Please. Yes. Please. Of course. I actually like the pick except I was a little disappointed in the Lions offense. It didn't look like the Lions offense of the past. And if I was going to play this, I don't know if Willie would agree. We're not allowed to do team totals here on the megapod, but Willie, if you had the opportunity to do the team total of the Buffalo bills over 30 and a half versus just playing the game over 54 and a half, would you rather play the bills team total over? Because that's what I would probably rather do, Willie. Four touchdowns in a field goal seems pretty doable from Buffalo standpoint. I agree. Okay. I mean, would it be that shocking if Buffalo destroyed them in this game? No. Yeah. I'm not sure. Cleave. Go ahead. Yeah. So the numbers moved on me. So I personally got a better number, but I still think it's good. It is, you mentioned my preview and you can go to it. I do like a little Q&A section and one of the things I talk about is the team I'm highest then market going into the year. and the team on lower, you know, the lowest versus the market. And the answer I had going into the season, the highest market were the Jets and I was lower on market with Green Bay. And they match up here. So clearly to me, the Jets, I guess it's green a half now as a play for me, I make it free. I made it free before the season. And so even though the numbers moved on me, I still think there's value. This to me, what I saw last week was exactly, you know, when I talk about my preview exactly, I'm both into the spectrum that Jets who looked really competent. They already have a top 12 to 15 offensive line and might actually be better. To be honest, Gino was not touched at all last week. It was 19 to 24 very efficient. They could have won that game by 30. If you watched it, they were just dominating the Titans and knew they were up and Titans couldn't move the ball on 'em. So they put their foot on the gas pretty early. If they had to score, they could have, you know, the team was full of weapons. It's shocking like the Jets, you wouldn't expect that. But between two really good running bats in Breeze Hall and Braylon Allen, like I said, top 12 to 15 offensive line, Kenyon Sedeek, the rookie out of Oregon at Titan, look really good. He actually got a reverse touchdown at the three-yard line. You don't see that with a Titan, but you know, he's got athletic ability that you don't typically see at Titan. Garrett Wilson made him match up at receiver. Like this is a really competitive offense. Defensively, a lot of good pieces as well, some good veterans, and they played well. I just think this is a really solid team. The market has not caught up yet. And, you know, I think getting three at home is a good number. I think the other side of ball, you know, Green Bay, I know Todd was on them last week. And they did exactly what I thought they would do. Like their issue is their offensive line just cannot hold up for four quarters. You know, if they do have the ability to create explosives, well, four is really good at that, Jordan Love likes to attack explosive, but Christian Wonson, especially, they had zero one game. And Brian Forrest was just a madman. And we got blitz over 80% of snaps in the first three quarters. And then he finally figured it out because they were getting burned on those, some of those explosives. Like I don't need to send all these guys because the offensive line is not going to hold up. So he set five man pressures. I think 11 times in the fourth quarter. So he just played basic defense. And that's when they got the most pressure and they confused love the most. And that's when they had, you know, all those sats and that sack fumble. And so like you just don't need to go crazy with, because the offensive line for Green Bay is a little bit of a mess. So I think that the Jets will play his close. I actually think they've got a real shout to win. I get maybe maybe I'm being biased because this was my feeling before the year that they would be a surprise team. But, you know, the other thing, the other factor here is just this is a horrible spot for Jordan Love and Rebay in general. So I'll back to back road games star is never easy. But the Packers have been a road favorite of over a fuel bowl eight times in Jordan Love's career. What do you think the the ATS record is for Green Bay in those eight games? If you had to get six. - Doing set the answer is oh and eight. - Wow. - He has never covered a game over three points as a favorite on the road, three and hold on. Rean eleven as a road favorite in his career in general. So they just this is whatever reason they're just not a good team. He's not a good quarterback when, you know, needing to really cover a true number like this. So all that was kind of cherry on top of everything else. I think the Jets are going to be surprised to him. I think they'll win and everyone's going to be like, wow, are the Jets the sleeper of the year? Come Monday morning. So Jets are my first play. - Wow. And I really like Jordan Love too. Like when I watch him play, I think he's like super, super good. Breeds blitz as well, but the facts are the facts. Good stuff there. Todd, you're next. - I also want to say when you're watching, I that was one of the in game bets that I jumped on pretty early was the Jets versus the Titans. You were watching that with Geno Smith and you were like, huh, this looks like a confident football team. Now I'm not saying Geno Smith is the greatest quarterback of all time, but the last couple of years he was okay. I would say he was maybe average to, you know, he was maybe a touch above average with Seattle. And he's not, and he's a veteran who's not going to make mistakes. And he really, you know, he looked like a professional quarterback and it looked like a professional team. And so I totally agree with Cleave that. I think we could see big things from the Jets, you know, with a regular quarterback, other than, you know, what did they have last year? Was it Justin Fields and, you know, who are the others? But you know, he was, he was terrible with the Raiders last year. But when you really dig into the numbers, this is why I started to put the pieces together for the Jets as a sleeper. They had the worst offensive line in the NFL last year in Las Vegas. And they had Brock Bowers for the seven games. They traded Jacobi Myers halfway through the year. Like they gave him no chance to succeed. You know, when he had both Brock Bowers and Jacobi Myers in the lineup is before Colton Miller got hurt the left tackle. He was like the 16th, 17th best quarterback by EPA's success rate. He was fine. Once all that collapsed, Miller was out, Bowers was out. They traded Myers like he had no chance. The guy is like very sensitive to pressure. So when you go to a Jets team that already has good weapons and already has a top 12 to 15 offensive line, this is kind of what you would expect. Like he could, he could make plays. He's not going to, he's not going to us, you know, hurt you. So kind of like Jacobi were set in that manner. So, um, so I'm glad you made that observation because I do think that's kind of how, how they're set up. And hopefully, hopefully that continues. I mean, they beat the Patriots last year if no one remembers. But in week one, I believe they beat the Patriots 2320. So he's not that bad. Anyways, I'll go to my first pick. I'm going to go, I'm just going to do, I'm going to be capped in obvious and I'm going to go with over 48, I believe, in the Bears Vikings. You know, I played the under this week thinking, oh, maybe it's too much hype about Ben Johnson saying he wants to score all the points in the world. And I got burned very quickly at 31, 24, a half time of that Carolina Bears game. Ben Johnson is the greatest. We know from the Lions, maybe not on the defense, but on offense, we do know from the Lions, he made the Lions look like the greatest show on turf. He's making Caleb Williams look like the greatest quarterback ever. I got love Mnung guy. I love the running game. I just love everything that the Bears do on offense. And I think it's going to be very, very difficult to stop the Bears. And on the other side of the ball, do we know that the Bears are good on defense? If I had to flip a coin, I'd say they're average at best. So I think we could see one of these situations where, and I feel like, and Cleave can maybe back me up on this, whether it's true or not from a data perspective. But I feel like every year there's a team or two that they're just very good on offense and very bad on defense. And there's just no way to make a number high enough to get the, to get unders enough. And they end up like 14 and two to the over. It seems to happen every year in the NFL that there's one of those, sometimes more than one of those teams. And I feel like the Bears could really be that. Now I'm a little concerned. We've got Carson Wentz at quarterback. And who knows if he's going to have the referees in his pocket. This week, like he did last week. However, they do come on. However, they do. Oh, wait a second. There's another flag. Wait, we've got another flag. I, this is really funny. On the third penalty of that drive, when he threw the interception, the end zone. And all the, I was down at circa and these guys all in Packers gear jumped up and down. They're all excited. And I was, I was going to make a joke to them. Guys, don't joke. There's a flag. And then I turn around and there really wasn't flag. I couldn't, first of all, all those calls were so late. It was unbelievable. I'm never going to get over that one. But, and I don't like to argue. I don't, I don't like to are, you know, be a whole thing about, oh, it's the refs and all that shit. This was ridiculous. But anyways, the point is, can Wentz with all those good receivers get you enough to get, to get to over 48? I think they can. 48, as we've seen now, you know, if we're going to see all these points, 48 might not be that big in a Bears game. So give me 48. I don't see how the Bears are going to get stopped here. How about 48 and a half? That's what I'm seeing most of. Well, what do you see most of? 48 and a half. I mean, yeah. 48 and a half. I'm criminal to even try to stink of 48 past those. Really? Because I have bookmaker at 48, am I wrong? Well, you might have bookmaker at 48, but on my screen of books here, I see a circa 48 and a half, I bet MGM 48 and a half. Look, if you guys got it, maybe there are enough 48's. If you guys are telling me, if you're telling me at the 48, by the way, Caesars is Caesars a book. Caesars has 48, but whatever, you want to go 48 now? All right, so it's 48 then. All right, 48. If there's enough 48's, then it's a 48. I mean, I don't think I'm going to have to be three. I'm trying to, I don't think I'm going to have three. You have three out of three, it's a three book rule. Do you have three 48's? I have a big book. I see Caesar. I see, let's see who else. I see on this screen, circa says 48. Where are you guys saying 48 and a half? Bet online has 48. I'm not. There's all kinds of people as 48. Okay. All right, 48. All right, 48 then. 48. I mean, I score as you're going to be like a couple of things. One, the 21 anyways, but. the first of those three flags that flag was super late. So I'm so with you, I was like unbelievably late. How they that first of the three flags on that drive. The other thing is I would I've said it maybe 10 times in the off season on a numbers game about the bears. And this is the Dennis Greenline. They are exactly who we thought they were week one that that offense Ben Johnson said it out loud. They're trying. He says we're going to try to break the NFL record for the most point score in the season. The 2013 Denver Broncos, which beat the 1990 eight Vikings. Was it? Well, eight, 1998 Vikings, which beat the 1983 Redskins. So he set it out loud. They come out. They score 59 points. But the compliment to that is by and there's a couple of other things, right? That's a franchise that wants a 4,000 yard pastor. They've never had it in the history of the Chicago Bears. Caleb Williams, 3,900 plus last year. So they know about that stat there. It means something to them in Chicago. I have him 20 to one for the stat leader in most passing yards. But the defense compliments that is Aaron shots did so well at FTN. Talked about how the last two years the bears have gotten just this unbelievable fumble luck. I think it was 10 out of 14 recovered last year. And they were super bad on first and second down the defense. Super good on third and fourth. The first and second is what is predictive. And so this defense. I'll be it with some different parts. But with many same parts is due to sort of complemented by allowing many points and getting the bears offence back on the field. That played out perfectly in game one. I get two here because we're skipping Willie. Yeah. Yes. Okay. My first is the Denver Broncos. I am taking the the Denver Broncos minus two and a half. Is it everyone minus two and a half versus the Jacksonville Jaguars? That sounds good to me. Broncos Monday night get get crushed by the chiefs. Much will be made about how bad the Broncos were. Yes. They missed tons of tackles that Kenneth Walker, John Riggins, like 60 are run on fourth and one around the left side was the most glaring of all those. But here's how here's six different examples of how Broncos have there were things that happened in that Broncos chiefs game. And again, we're always sensitive to overreactions. Have these just aren't probably things that are likely to happen again. First half one drive ended because of a phantom hold on Pat Bryant. Next drive, a three and out after Bryant dropped a surefire first down on second and four. Next drive, very odd play call on third and one at their own 32. They'd like to have that play call back. Second half, third and two of the Kansas City 39 they get flagged for a delay call like bonics can't let that happen. So they end up having to to point. Then first in goal at the Kansas City five subsequent drive holding on Bryant set the Broncos back. That one was I guess legit. And then later in OPI on Troy Franklin nullifying a would be first down. They just had lots of lots of mistakes that to me. First of all, the officials made a phantom call. They didn't call one on Travis Kelsey on a touchdown also. They just had a lot of stuff in that game that I just think is it's a one off. I think it's easily correctable. That defense is going to be one of the top two or three in the NFL. Obviously didn't show it this past week. I think that defense will show up here. And the Jaguars, they crushed the Browns. They did what they were supposed to do. But the but the Broncos minus two and a half less than a field goal. I will absolutely take the Denver Broncos here trying not to over rack to what I saw Monday night. Number two. Before you give it up the Eagles. Oh, please go ahead. Yes, I'm sorry. I want to respectfully disagree with you on. I don't think the Denver Broncos looked good. No, I'm not saying the picks bad because I do like to do those, you know, you know, flipperouskeys where you got the bad the team that look bad and the team that look good. And you might be very well right that they will cover. I just didn't I wasn't impressed with their offense at all. I wasn't I wasn't I didn't believe that game thinking, oh, well, how did it been for this? They were to scored. But okay, maybe I'm wrong. We'll see this week. It'll be interesting. What? I could be wrong. I could be wrong. I could also go three and oh, we'll see. Number two is the Philadelphia Eagles minus seven at the Tennessee Titans. Will Hills Tennessee Titans. Sorry, well, the cut of your team. My very simple handicap to this is how is Tennessee scoring? Please tell me. I love Will will had a play on on numbers game this morning on the radio side, which I think is probably preempting your question, your follow up question on this Todd is if you got to choose the best bet for this kind of thing on the megapod, I would probably take the Titans team total under at 16 and a half. I thought that's a great bet. But having watched personal, I think Texans, uh, Texans Broncos and fences in the NFL throw the Vikings in there as well. But it's it's a small group. The Eagles defense is stacked. Washington wore them down a little bit by the end. They held on. But that defense is still awesome. There was tons of three announced for Washington as well in that game. I genuinely don't see after after Cleve was talking about Tennessee versus the Jets last week as good as the Jets were. You really don't know where the Titans bad ends and the other teams good begins. I do not know how the how the Titan score here more than a cheap feel goal or or touchdown that might be caused by the Eagles turn over in their own territory. I guessed seven and a half on this and I thought I was being charitable on guessing lines and it's seven. Absolutely. I'll lay the seven with the Eagles. What? It's seven and a half an hour. I think. Is it? I see sevens everywhere. What do you guys buy? I see tons of sevens and I like to rip Gileo. I see tons of sevens. Okay. Yeah. I see seven and a half. I mean, it's mixed. I'm not saying it's that's consensus. But it's definitely trying to your way. That's for sure. Sevens, baby, official. Willie, you get one now. I hate doing this betting against the team I had last week and it seems too obvious. I'm going to lay Tampa. What are you like eight and a half? Yep. Cleve one last week at half 25 plays 63 yards. And I know a lot of the film guys and Cleve could probably speak to this. Jim Schwartz, probably a bigger lost defensively. Maybe than I thought I thought. Cleve, when I've been using the line two through 53, they're not that bad somewhere of the jets. Watson is so bad, so unplayable. It seems like the rest of the team is lost faith in them. I don't love laying points. The NFL, I don't love laying over a touchdown, but look at Tampa last week. They did not punt. They fumbled four times and they lost all of them. Granted, they had a pick six the other way where they scored. But one of their fumbles got returned. So they got a little unfortunate with with turnovers back up against the wall. Really? I don't say can't afford to go all into in that division. I guess you could. I just think, you know what? This line is a little bit cheap. Browns to me are just so bad. I watched a lot of that game against the Jags. And I turned it on a minute and they got the ball at the plus 30. I'm like, oh, I'm getting eight and a half. I'm not the plus 30. I'll get three at least. Maybe seven. I'm in good shape. Interception. And from that point on, it was basically Alabama versus Mercer. They're so bad. I'm going to lay it with Tampa. I know it feels square reactionary, but I'm taking the buckineers here minus the eight and a half. I think the buckineers scheduled the Browns. Same way, because Alabama does Mercer. Coddy, I got a quick update from Chicago where they have Polish sausage and have herded decks, but the Chicago white socks are playing bat and Cleveland. Whoops. I just, I, I, I, I whipped into Pittsburgh easier for a second, but the Chicago white socks are up three to four. Gilly, because he likes when the Cleveland Guardians lose the Guardians are losing three to three. Have a herded deck. I do. You see that story, guys? That Tommy fam Tommy fam was inactive. Yes. And ran into the GM and the elevator. It said, hey, use me put me in a three run homer. They were down to nothing to put them up three, two. That might win in the division if they can hang on here. You imagine just getting baseball a best spot on a baseball roster. You run out of the GM. You're like, you know, you really should use me. And he's like, okay, he's not so bad. He was on the buckas. Tommy fam, you know, as long as you don't have a fantasy league and, and like Cougal and, you know, beat up other than that, he's, he's decent. Really, where does Tommy fam rank in the, in the MLB, immaculate grid game? He's up there. Yeah, he's a good one. He's a good one. Wow. He's no Octavio hotel, but he's up there. Toddie. My second pick. I'm going to go down to Texas where they have a team called the Houston Texans and they're laying two and a half against the Cincinnati bungles. And I think the Texans minus two and a half here are the play. Here's the deal. We thought the Texans were this, you know, unbelievable defense. And maybe they still are. Come on. Josh Allen can make anybody look bad. And he did don't get me wrong. He made them look bad, but he can make anybody look bad. So I want to give the Texans defense a pass. If there's more nonsense, then I'll take the pass away. But right now, I want to give them a pass for that performance against Buffalo. And I think they're going to, you know, come regress back to, you know, they're, they're really, really excellent defensive play from last year. And the Cincinnati bungles, who everybody said, oh, Cincinnati is a sexy pick because now we got a defense in Cincinnati. And we've got burrow and we've got all the offense that we always had, but now we also have a defense to go with it. But do they have a defense to go with it? I didn't see it. I thought the Buccaneers went up and down the field. If it wasn't for the Lucy Goosey Baker Mayfield, could Baker Mayfield's clubs be more unbuttoned? They're like the most unbuttoned team of all time. Yeah, sure. He does spectacular things, but then he likes fumbles and then he makes a bad pick. And he's just extremely unbuttoned up. But, you know, exciting to watch, but I thought they moved the ball very well against Cincinnati. And I just don't believe this all the Cincinnati defensive. Oh, we're better on defense talk. I just don't buy it yet. I think where things are going to, you know, roll back to way. They're supposed to be Texans great defense Cincinnati bad defense. And enough Texans offense to overcome, you know, the Cincinnati great offense. So I'm going to go Texans minus two and a half. You know, Texans could have won that game. I picked the ball off the end zone. He dropped the ball. The game's over. But, you know, I just think the Texans are going to be better this year. So I want to get I want to take the Texans minus two and a half here at home. And I'm just going to interject that's my third as well to Texans minus two and a half. For all the reasons you stayed Cincinnati gifted. Sorry about that, buddy. Now I already bet it. Absolutely. Cincinnati gifted that game Texans defense. Just like the Broncos defense, I think shows up here. So that's my. I have it in pocket and plus three. It opened, it opened Texans plus three. And I got it in pocket Texans. So we're just making a joke about it. Stevie loves when when when people say, Oh, I have the bed in pocket from before. I'm just taking it in pocket. Yes. Good. So it's good time to not in a garbage, a three run homer to take the lead five mystery. Oh, come on. Perfect timing for my guardians there to me. Help. And any help. And you're going to have a hard to take after all. What do you have for the, the Viking bears line right now? Is it four and a half still in the lines of moving? I see most. What do you see? Yeah, it's a little bit. I wonder if that's a four maybe Murray's plan or somebody thinks Murray's plan. I didn't see just now that he he was limited in practice. I believe so maybe that's why unfortunately, again, we'll go back just to satisfy Stevie physics. I do have a five and a half in pocket at the Vikings. And so before and a half is fine. Those are dead numbers anyway. So back to, you know, Todd, you were talking about like, who is the team that you couldn't make lines high enough because their offense is so good and their defense is so bad. We have the cowboys last year. It was like, I think they went over almost 80% of games. So you kind of get that similar feel here. But again, this is one of those teams where, yeah, okay, you're facing a bat Carolina team. You can you can lay it on a team like that. The Vikings and Brian Flores, like you're just not going to do the same thing and just had your way with Flores, like you did with Everow. So and KO Williams historically has struggled against Brian Flores. He's been okay at a time, but, you know, he's also had some really bad games. And so I do think it's going to be a great chess match with Ben Johnson. But, you know, he's good enough like that that defense does not get, you know, slice and dice, you know, too often. So I'm okay being on that side. And I thought Carson once played well. You whether Tim or Kyler, either way, like they're going to be able to put up points on this terrible Bears D defense. I mean, you allow over seven yards per play to brace young and the Panthers who have a bottom, what bottom five to seven offense. And now you get real weapons with Justin Jefferson, that that wine receiving core. I think that that's just weight anything over a fuel bowl here is way too much for a team that can't stop anybody. And so it's kind of just really an easy click for me at anything over a fuel bowl. My numbers aren't even close to this. So I'll take the Vikings here by because it is you get your third cleave or snaking. Okay. Yeah. This one I will take Dallas. What do we got? It's all over the map. Was it four? That good number. Four and four and a half. Yeah. Four is pretty much four. We get you four. Okay. I just thought last week was just a betting. A lot of new guys on defense for Dallas. They look terrible. I just I think they're going to get a week to button things up. I think like the embarrassment of what happened last week. They'll be they'll play better. But I just think the offense is just a different animal at home. I thought the Giants were underrated coming into the season. They've got a ton of good past rush talent. And so that you know, and they still move the ball on them. It's not like they couldn't move it. I think they'll be fine. This is one of those things to get back at home. I think it's going to click. I just think this is too low. I have it more. It's five and a half. I thought Washington was fine last week. But you know, they allowed a bunch of explosives to a bad Philly offense to be honest. They did fight from a success rates standpoint on a down and down basis. But it was just like Dallas Goddard was just breaking free for 50 yarders. I don't know where they gave up was a third it would you watch it go was a third and goal from like the 20 and the 17 target out on the middle goal from the 17. Yeah. Yeah. It just made no sense. So there's many leaks in that defense. No Frankie Loubue likely. It was probably the most helpful. I mean, outside of sunny seas else. What a player on defense. That's going to be a big big loss. I just think that Cowboys are it's perfect bounce back spot. And I think at being at home, they're just going to over match Washington. So I'll take the Cowboys here. Look at my face. The face of knowing you're right. Toddian will your lasts because I've done mine as well. It's funny because I have that same game. And I and I was thinking about Dallas for the same reason I was thinking about the Bears games over. I want I like the over 50 and a half here in that game against Washington because I just don't think that Dallas is going to get stopped at all. And it's not like Washington. Are they going to be able to keep the ball away like the Giants did where where the Giants just ran the ball on them and kept throwing the little swing pass to Singletary every five seconds. And and the Cowboys couldn't stop it. You know, I could see the Cowboys being up. You know, even if the Cowboys went this one big, it could be 35 14 late and Jayden Daniels gets you a back door. You got lots of backdoor touchdown potential in this game. So, you know, I just think over 50 and a half is it's just too low for a Cowboys team that I don't know how you're going to stop this team. By the way, the Cowboys played great on offense, even though they lost that game. You know, I mean, they they had the ball two times in the in the second half. They scored a touchdown both times. You know, so I see the Cowboys are going to score points. And I think Jay don't get enough against that that horrible Cowboys defense. So give me over 50 and a half in the Cowboys game. They did except Dak did that very Dak thing. Like the one real knock on Dak is when they are behind, he does make reckless plays. He's a terrible come from behind player. And he made that really bad throw away. That wasn't a throw away at the end of the first half. But yeah, I'm with you on on both of these. Will, what was that sweet background you had for a second behind you that week? We got a glimpse of probably reflection of the closet. Okay. All right. What's your last one? Born between the Cardinals and the Jets, two home dogs. I'll put the Kai Bosch on my buddy, Cleve here because his guardians are putting the Kai Bosch on my white socks, 20 to 1 to win the division. So a little revenge here. I'm going Jets. I'll take the Jets here at Green Bay, lost their last five games last year of the regular season, blue and 18 point leading the playoffs and blue at 12 point lead middle of the third quarter last week. They have a real issue closing games. I just wonder now I know they dominated the stats against the Vikings, but to Cleve's point, the Jets are much improved. You're getting over the three and a half here and just a little bonus because I don't have too much to add to Cleve's point. 16 to 1 for Aaron Glenn coach of the year. If they make the playoffs, he's almost a lot. Now asking too much who knows it's the NFL, but I will take the Jets here plus three and a half. I think they're undervalued. The roster is not that bad. And I like getting that hooked there. It's three and a half, right? Three and a half for four. What do we get three and a half? Three and a half it is. I mean, if you get the goal, if you get two wins versus Miami, and I know I mean, Miami is a horse and I even thought and you know, that's three wins right there. You're almost half way to a potential. You're often running. I thought, by the way, Will, the way you were talking, I thought you were going to go against Cleve. And then you're like, no, I'm doing what Cleve's doing. No, what he's saying is that he's going to have one of his two losses this week will ruin Cleve's pick right by putting the car box on Cleve's stuff. So it's it's it's it's actually helping the rest of us. He's kind of defensively helping us knock the guest chair out, which is good. I like that. Well, nice job, Willie. Thank you. Appreciate it. We'll help you. I hope you go. Oh, and three again. And you're oh, and six and have to be fantastic. I would freak it. Love it. Humble that. Never mind. Okay. Football is back. Yep. You heard correctly. Football is back. And on polymarket, you can trade on what you think will happen against other fans before kickoff. Chat live with the polymarket community and get their thoughts. And then take your own stance and kickoff doesn't mean you're locked in. Trade live in game and exit whenever you want is the game changes or combine multiple trades into one trade with polymarket combos. Now live in the app and football is just the start. You can also trade on baseball, basketball, hockey, combat sports, tennis and more. So say goodbye to the weekend and Monday nights and Thursday nights. New customers use promo code Pylon and deposit $10 to get $50 instantly to start trading. 18+ see terms of service for information on restrictions and eligibility. Trading is risky. and non-withdrawable trading only credit. Trick or treat! No one's home. I see you inside eating a Reese's. Do they not have treats? Or do they not want to share their Reese's? Perhaps it's true. Everything happens for a Reese's. Keys are of the week. Uh, keys are the week. Two leg, six point. Mine is super obvious. One. Cliff, we'll start with you when he got this week. Yeah, uh, I'm going to go with the Eagles for one leg. That's for sure. Um, and then what was the other? Oh, uh, I'm going to take the Bengals for the second leg. Ooh, like that. There's one of those team, the Joe Barrow. They don't, they rarely get blown out. Um, so I'll, I'll take Cincinnati on the other leg. God wish, Neff. I've got a whole bunch of them written down here. Uh, I kind of like the Kansas City one. I kind of like the Rams one. I kind of like just got to pick one. It's just got to tell us one though. That's all you got to do. Okay, I'll take the bucks minus two and a half. Uh, because even though Baker Mayfield is completely unbuttoned up, I, I just don't see them not being able to win by a field go against the brownies. And I guess I'm going to take your Kansas City chiefs. Um, don't sleep on them chiefs. Wait, first of all, doesn't every time you watch football, don't you have any? Oh, Andy Reed, he's just so smart. Yeah, just, I just love Andy Reed. They run that play from the 1900s where we're like the guy. And it's all over Twitter. You can like watch where everyone's running on that. It's really, you know, intricate. I loved the blocking on that, on that goal line play to walker, which they said they, it was like a single wing play or something. And he's just so creative. And you just always from you forget how good Andy Reed is. And I just feel like now you're giving him Kenneth Walker. And granted the other passing game didn't look good. Okay, fair enough, but it was Denver Denver's a good defense. So, you know, if they're going to be able to run the ball like this, I think Kansas City could be real tough this year, you know. And by the way, remember, we, we turned Kansas City into a defensive team the last couple of years because they are. They're a great defensive team. They played so well defensively. So, you know, give me Kansas City minus one against that cold franchise that I don't even know what's going on over there. It just looks like an absolute dumpster fire. But do I get minus a half or do I get minus one on that? Is because there, I think they're six and a half. I'm not sure. Six and a half is what I'm seeing. Okay, so I have Kansas City minus a half as my other leg with the box. By the Kenneth Walker, 200 plus broken tackles collectively for Seattle, Skilp or all Seattle broken tackles last year. He had over a hundred of them himself. He had the third most broken tackles of all running backs in the NFL last year. Kind of underrated, I think. Willie? I'll go Bucks Ram. You know what? If the Rams were going to, they beat me so be it. And I Bucks should take care of business of the Browns. So pretty simple and straightforward, but Bucks and Rams. I am going Bucks and Eagles, Bucks and Eagles. That's my Bucks down to two and a half Eagles down to one. Yeah. Eagles. Feds might have some words for you Friday because it's a road team. It's not exactly a Wong teaser. Well, it's not even a Wong teaser because it's seven. Right? It's not even nice. He was crazy about it. By the way, Feds. It really tells us about it. He will thought Fedsic was great. What are you thinking about that? Willie, you know what's good? I thought he was great. I felt in the annals of Broadway. I love probably the best one of all time. I've never seen a guy broadcast the way he does. The most common bit on the group chat. And we have many bits. But maybe the most common is, is Will's psychophantic love of Will that just, of, of, of a Fedsic that just annoys the hell out of it. They are great segments though because you needle Feds and then Feds comes back. I mean, that is a great hour. Friday's new it on ANG. Thank you. But you know what? I've been accused these last, this last stretch of being way too mean to him. So who, who made those more mean people? Okay. All right. Don't encourage me. There's more. There's no need of meanness that's not necessary. With our good friend, with our good friend, maybe. Cleve, Cleve has cleveanalytics.com. Among his great features there is the survivor optimizer. How many entries did you end up with in Circus Survivor Cleve and how many got through? Week one. So I'm in like, I'm in like four different pools. But I think with Circus, I had five. A couple that I have group entry was so they're not all mine. So I think I got through with three of the five. I did lose on the chargers. Which, you know, it ended up being a decent pick at the end of the day when you look at the actual ownership. It wasn't like one of those are so super chalky that you had to fade them. But is what it is. You know, I made a choice in loss. But yeah, so I got a couple left there. I've got a handful left with some other pools. So still still doing okay. But wish I had all of them left. Who you like this week? Who are you playing? So it's interesting. The one that's going to be, do you swallow the chalk with San Francisco? It's kind of like the freebingo swear. Or do you save them? They've got a couple opportunities in the future. Although if it's surprising, they have a lot less than you might think. Yes. And on the weeks where, especially like I think it's like week nine maybe, they have a strong play at home versus the Raiders. There's like three other really strong plays, including Seattle versus Arizona. I can't see a person chat. There's like a couple really strong ones. So I don't know. The projections that I've seen and that I've run are a lot lower on San Francisco than you might think. I thought it would be like 40%. It looks like it's only going to be like mid to upper 20s from an ownership standpoint. And so a lot more are going to be pivoting the Tampa because they're going to say there's not enough feature value there. But then Tampa just becomes way over owned for the win probability. So I think it's worth. I'm going to have probably some San Francisco. And then I might actually use Buffalo on one entry because again, lack of ownership. They're up to, I mean, they're up to five and a half. That's a pretty strong win probability with an ownership that's going to be some five percent. And again, you look at their future value. There are not many spots. Obviously Miami is one. But there are not many spots where you, you need to save them for the future. There are plenty of other opportunities in those same weeks. So that might be one I sneak one in, sneak one through this week. So those are, those are a couple that I'm looking at. And again, Cleve survivor optimizer. If you're in Cerca, you can filter it for Cerca's rules. If you're in other ones that have different rules, you can filter it for those as well. I'm sorry Todd, go ahead. Cleve, does your optimizer say anything about how when you're watching the charger game? And you can feel, right? You get taken back to Cincinnati Bangles, New England Patriots from a couple of years ago in week one when the entire world had Cincinnati. And Cincinnati laid an egg up, I believe in last 16, 10 and knocked off 100 million survivors. I was watching the charger game and I immediately realized, oh my gosh, this is Cincinnati Bangles again. I felt it early. I was like, okay, we're dead. I was telling the guys on the on the thread. It's over. And you know, I don't know if the optimizer does that, but it should be able to tell you that. So you can at least get some money back in game from all your entries. Todd, you wouldn't waste time with survivor. Because he likes basically two plays into the game. He likes to just basically declare his survivor picked dead. So the fact that you're not in any more. Bums me out. It was more than I wanted to. I'm going to add to the algorithm, kind of like your own little psychologist, where you can talk at once. You could, you know, Todd could say, I noticed a dead and I'll talk back to you. And maybe like comfort you a little bit. That could be something I can add as an option. Because I agree with you. I was watching, we thought maybe like I think they cut it to six at one point and maybe the other things will turn around. They just never could get a stop. I don't know if it was the chargers are that are that bad defensively. Or honestly, Arizona just might be way underrated. True. What we all thought. They were like Jacobi percent, just every third dial was converting it. But Brian was open on every play. I think it's more Arizona. Honestly, that is better than what we gave him credit for. And we'll see what happens in Atlanta, Kentucky's big for the charter. By the way, chargers could be a sneaky pick to this week. One of those things I don't through like 10 years of historical pool data. And I've read some other, you know, articles about this in a kind of coincides. You get this, if you find a team like the chargers had just, you know, had a highway probability. A lot of people were at them and they lose outright. And then they are a potential pick again. They are so under owned the second week of that back to back. Because people are just afraid of what they just saw. That yeah, actually becomes a really valuable pick. So you might be able to get the chargers at a really good number this week. And it might be the last time you use them for like two months. So that could be another sneaky kind of under the radar pick if you want. It is the proverbial must win situation for them for what you just said. Like the gaunt weak. It's like if they go on when two against the teams they're supposed to beat, oh man. So you know what if you should leave one or the other. Sorry, Gilly. I thought you were done talking. No, go ahead. Go ahead. The other thing that should probably be added to the optimizer is a thing that screams at the loudest thing possible. Like I do at the sports book on Sundays. The words no flags, no flags. And now with the news. rule where you can throw the penalty flag 500 hours after your team intercepts in the end zone, right? You have to yell no flags for probably a good 30 seconds and everyone in the sportsbook thinks you're crazy or crazier than you they already think you are because you're yelling no flags. But meanwhile you have to because what else are you going to do? They can throw a flag at any time. In fact, after the next four plays, they can throw a flag and they go, whoa, whoa, that's a flag from back before you deserve credit, though, because you you called that this game was over early. And then the moment really was I think it was tied still in the first half. And the charges were actually matriculating the ball down the field. And it was like fourth and three and they decided to go for it. No, it's 10 seven, 10 seven chargers, right. And it was for it. And I knew when they did as as they're lining up for it, I said to myself, this is a very bad idea. Now, of course, I asked Stevie after is that the right movement. Of course, he says yes, but it's not just kick the damn fuel ball, he might, he might have been right. But they just kicked the damn, who was that coach on the chargers to go for it all the time and then got fired? What was that guy's daily brand is daily brand is daily. It smelled. I swear to God, I thought, did they bring back stale now to go for this on fourth and goal? Like do they realize they're in for a tough game here and they don't realize it. They're messing around, they're munking around here. Hey, I knew it was trouble. Here's what it is. It's so funny. You don't expect that from a harlot team, like you expect a buttoned up, right. And that's how I was okay. I was comfortable with them week one. I'm like, the harbour never loses an opener like he's a guy that's just going to be buttoned up. That's going to be great operation. McDaniel can only help. And it just felt like the Miami McDaniel team was shifted over to LA. Like they're soft. They make mistakes. Looked not in the way. Capri pants. Capri pants. Capri pants. That's what it is. Will, could you text Lamberti and ask him how he felt about brand and stale. Maybe you can read us the response before the end of the podcast. That'd be awesome. If you could do that for us. That's not a bad idea. Maybe he's that for next week. Hey, Mike. What do you think about brand and stale? It's okay. Okay. It started on Lamberti. That's it. But. Would you like to say anything? Anything? Not publicly. Okay. All right. Todd and Will, are you guys in Survivor? Yes. Who would you have this week? Because I will tell you, for me, for a lot of the reasons that cleave is stating. And there's a ton of choices this week, like half the games are big spreads. But I went through, I do, we do a segment, Kelly, and I own a numbers game on Vsyn, which is we go through the futures, we go through the schedule, we go through future value. The Niners and the Bucks, Niners happen to be the biggest favorite, Bucks tied for the second biggest. They really don't have that much future value. So I, in my remaining, because I had the chargers on three as well, in my remaining pools, or entries, I should say, in Serka, it's going to be some combination of Niners two and Bucks one. I'm just not going to overthink it this weekend. I'm just going that way. You guys. I'm already knocked out, but I got your sentiments, Gilly. Yeah. Um, as I would tell you, there's all ownership value for the Pitchbarg Stowers. The Yens might, you know, if you throw the parking value, $100 up in there, that's a lot of value. It's ownership value, Matt. Yeah. San Francisco, as Cleve said, maybe week nine home Raiders is the other one, and then Tampa Bay, maybe week six home Steelers. I don't know. I guess they have NFC South opponents, but I'm always curious about those. Yeah. Okay. Final two questions. Let's do this. And this is just alluded to, there's tons of candidates for this one, which is which of the big favorites, in your opinion, is the most likely to lose outright. So many candidates, I will cut off the fives and the five and a half just to narrow it. Ravens hosting the Saints, they're eight and a half point favorites, Eagle, seven point road favorites against the Titans, Bucks, eight and a half point home favorites against the Brannies, the chargers, six and a half point home favorites against the Raiders. I'm already laughing because that feels like the choice. Niners 13 point favorites are 13 and a half hosting the Dolphins, chiefs, six and a half point home favorites against the Colts, and then Monday night football Rams hosting the giant seven point favorites, which Cleve of all those favorites in your opinion is the most likely to lose outright. Rough one. I'm going to, you know, I'm going to say Ravens. Now, the only reason is because I think Zay flowers will be out. They lost Chacoby Lane, they're working wide receiver like they, they're down to Rashad Baton as their only receiver. So not, you know, and they looked awesome last week, but you know, I'll give the Saints a shot here. One thing, Todd, pay attention to the Saints in games. You know, with Tyler Schuck under center, they're two and eight in the first half against the spread. Last year, the Saints were, I think, through the first half, they had the second worst point differential in the NFL. They just had these insane fourth quarters and we saw last week, too, they're down 21, nothing at half. So keep it. And I went and looked to the first half. It wasn't in 20, it was seven, nothing at half, but it was 20, but nothing in the third part of it. 21, nothing, a third quarter. Do you know what the half time spread is in the Ravens Saints game? It's seven and a half of the game, five and a half in the first half. So obviously the market kind of gets that, you never see that in the NFL to that degree. So, but that's just something to keep an eye like there's, it's crazy how often they get these callbacks. So just they're not a first half team. That's for sure. Yeah, first half line on number of times Troy Ackman next Monday night says something blank is as good as anything in the NFL. Did you see that? That was odd, wasn't it? That was unbelievable. Did you see this cleave at all? Did you see this? Yeah. Listen to the Lover Tard showed it. Actually someone posted it on Twitter. I'm sure you could find it. They actually have the actual clips. Oh. Lies together is like a highlight. Really? You can find it. He does say that. It's hilarious. It's incredible. What I found so interesting about it is my brain didn't pick it up while he doesn't pick it up while he's doing it. It obviously Lover Tard did, but I counted him. It was six times in the first quarter, eight times in the second quarter. So 14 times in a half, he compared something player unit team to as good as anything else in the NFL. And I'm not an Lover Tard fan, but that was such a great catch by him. I got to see that montage of those things spliced together. Todd, big favorite, most likely lose that right. On what cleave was saying, you know, I made my pick of lines last week and I probably still should have covered even with Chuck's great second half. But I didn't believe in Chuck, but wow, Chuck with those receivers. There was a couple receivers, you know, a Lave, of course, but they were just making every catch and Chuck made that great play on the fourth and 12 when I was like, okay, we got him now because that guy came in from I was going to cover because the lines were going to get the ball back at the 20 yard line and the Saints still had time out. I thought, okay, I'm not even going to get the push. I'm going to get the win because they were up seven still 24 17 plus I had Saints under two and a half touchdowns for the game. So I thought I was going to win everything when I see this guy flying at him. Somehow he eluded the guy and through to, I think it was number 14. Is it Valle or something? I'm sorry. I forget. Yeah. He was awesome too. So, you know, I, I'm with you, Cleave. I mean, Chuck really, you know, I thought all that Chuck stuff was last year against bad teams at the end of the year. I wasn't like really impressed, but maybe Chuck is good. So, you know, I have to keep an eye on Chuck. But as far as the team to lose, I'm going to go with, I was, I was thinking that maybe Baltimore, maybe, maybe Baltimore, but you know what, I think I'm going to say something crazy. I love when this podcast catches you by surprise, I was going to say Baltimore, but, but he already said Baltimore. So I'm going to say Eagles. I know it's crazy and I don't know how the Titans could possibly score enough points. To get there, but maybe they get a couple of defense. I was not impressed with the Eagles offense at all. So obviously, you know, it'd be tough for them to lose, but you know, maybe if they could get like a demarcado situation or, you know, interception at roles in the end zone and then the other team. Did the Rams count? Did the Rams count? Rams count? Oh, I'm throwing the Rams. Maybe the Giants are just way better than we think and the Rams, the, the travel screws them up and they get old all at once. You know, maybe there's some disaster potential for the Rams. I'm not ready to go there yet, but it has crossed my mind, especially with the Garrett injury. Donald's not, you know, back yet, back to being himself. So maybe there's some blow potential there and the Giants are just better than we caught. I like the Rams choice, man. I like that. I'm going to just so we have four different ones. I'm going to say the Kansas City Chiefs because I don't, I, I know people like went crazy on them, but the Broncos looked like asked that game and again, calls went all for the Chiefs. And I had the Chiefs. So I'm not, this is not out of like, you know, bitter, bitterness. It all benefited my bets. So I just feel like I don't know if I'm yet convinced about the Chiefs and the cults aren't terrible. So I'll just say the Kansas City Chiefs, most likely lose that right. So we have four different ones. Last one. We live in a bizarre world. We asked this on every megapix, uh, since it's inception 16 years ago, same thing. You're forced to make a bet on a side in every NFL game, except you are given one free pass, believe what's the game you want, no part of on the side. I actually think it's Seattle Arizona, uh, I just have no idea, I mean, you can't late place, but you're locked on the road over a fuel bowl. Um, yeah, so I am, but Seattle's obviously still really good defensively. And we just don't know yet about the Cardinals. So I'm going to give them another week to kind of prove it, but that would be my choice. Doddy. And the Panthers and the Falcons, I mean, I don't really know. I don't, I don't understand what the Panthers are. Are they? The correct answer are the bad. What are they? I don't have no idea. And the Falcons, you know, last year they were going on the events on a bad, uh. I just too much. I don't know, Willie and I agree. That's the correct answer, right? Yeah. Can't be. Yeah. I who knows who knows? I'm with you. Although we are getting one more week of Cooper rush, but at least it gets a week of practice. Maybe though, they, I think we saw as the fans give me some comments that he's not ready to name a starter. Can't roll anything out. So he was some kind of a cryptic quote, some vague quote. So maybe it's Jack Strand. You know what? Take a chance. I guess they seem to practice. They know better. We know what Cooper rush is. We know what two is. We know what all these guys are unless panic's ready. Take a shot on Jack Strand. Who knows? Even if it's a 10% chance, he's trying to go throw him in there. Maybe go Steve Bartkowski. Maybe we may do something like that. Maybe do some crazy. Chris Chandler. Chris Chandler. Wasn't Jeff George on Atlanta also. Yes. Chris Chandler was their Super Bowl quarterback, right? Chris Chandler. Yeah. All right, boys. Will has a hard out. He's got family things to do. So we got to run. Will always placing family first. Todd Wischneve at T Wischneve. You can follow him discord, not quite open yet. But he's looking into it because he's he's reached a max. So he's he's trying to figure it out action on showtime. Still available. Todd's great in that. Will, name of the podcast should have bet more. He does it three times a week. Who's your latest guest, Willie? Dave Ross had Jeff Schwartz on recently. Megapod friend Dave Jeff Schwartz. He got a recruit. Jeff Schwartz. We got to get something together and get him back on the week. Jeff really enjoys it when Todd does no one or wrap it up on the megapod. That's the only thing. And then cleave cleave T.A. cleave. Thank you so much for doing this. I know you're a busy man. cleaveanalytics.com. Did I miss anything else that you're that people can go to or features there that people should know about? No, that's good. Appreciate you guys. That's always fun. And just a great Twitter follow for anything pro football day after day, week after week at C-L-E-V-T-A. Don't really like his opinions about the Guardians. Other than that, I like him very much. Kill Alexander, beating the book. Of course, a numbers game on decent. Thank you so much for listening. Good luck. Week two in the National Football League. Non-poly market. Of course you do. Trading is risky. Intro offer is a non-withdrawable trading only credit first time depositors only. Trick or treat. No one's home. Do they not have treats or do they not want to share their Reese's? Perhaps it's true. More people. More devices. More AI. The way we live today takes a lot of energy. Wind and solar are powerful but not always available. That's when natural gas comes in with reliable energy whenever it's needed. Companies like energy transfer work behind the scenes safely transporting these resources to facilities across the country through a network of underground pipelines. 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