Beating the Book: 2026 NCAA Tournament Betting Preview

[MUSIC] Check it out, man. [MUSIC] All right, live from the serious XM studios at the win Las Vegas, our only NFL offseason podcast we believe from the win studios. It is the March Madness podcast on the beating book feed, Gil Alexander, our normal two football staples with us. And we brought the whole band back together and contribute to our 2023 version of this, but less introduced of course the regulars from Venice, California today. Remote, Todd wished everybody at T wished have on Twitter. The man who has put together not only the greatest college basketball season, I've ever seen, but maybe the greatest sports betting season I've ever seen. Todd, what do you have to say for yourself about that? >> Hey, how are you, Gillian? It's cranked to see it. I am just glad to be here with a good friend of my name, Wil Hill. And how the hell is everybody? I will cheer to know that I did button my shirt all the way to the top two as a, an absolute, I don't know, tribute to teams that are buttoned up and gritty. So let's get ready to ruffle. >> All right, that awkward delay between me and Todd is not going to be awkward at all, right? >> I'm moving forward, I don't know, Kevin. >> Gillian, what's going on? What is better than this? What a great time of the year. Hard to believe it's been three years since that podcast, it just time flies by, but should be a lot of fun here these next hours or so doing this podcast. >> It should be the 2023 podcast by the way, not like we haven't done the podcast, the March Madness pod the last couple years, but the 2023 podcast was famous for the fact that will call Florida Atlantic to go to the final four. Todd had both Michigan State and San Diego State going very far and I mentioned to him famously a couple times on that. San Diego State, you caught in the final, but he also had, right? And you also have Michigan State going far as well, right? And Todd famously said twice, twice more than once during that podcast, hey, your bracket is really like off-kilter here, not popular picks. You should probably enter it in a big bracket. And Todd went to the border of Arizona and Nevada was making bets. New he was banned from a certain book, didn't toggle in his brain. I know I'm banned, but I could also enter the bracket pool. So he failed to do that. And we found out when all was said and done or at least as we were approaching the elite eight, had Todd entered. We figured this out after the fact. Todd would have tied for second and would have split $70,000 second price. He would have made $35,000 had he done so. Thank God he wouldn't have finished first because if he had missed out on a million dollars, I'm not sure Todd would be here today. Is that accurate Todd? You would not be here today. I was limited at draft king, so I never thought, oh, just put $100 into the draft kings and go in the contest because they don't care if I go in the contest, right? But of course, it never registered that I should do that. And the million dollars was first place. The second place was 50. The third place was 20. And Doug Wedge was in second place using a lot of my picks. And me and him would have tied for second place because I went back and got my sheet and it would end up second place. So 50 and 20 and 70,000 we would have shared 35,000. But it would have been much worse if I would have had the winner at a million dollars. And the other stable of that 2023 podcast, the Grover Cleveland of producers on a numbers game at Vison back in the fold, Jeff Parlay, everybody who's now working here locally in Las Vegas. What's the station Jeff? Yeah, ESPN Las Vegas co-feeling company, the show that I'm on a bunch. I also hosted on Saturday's past week, which is good. Also, Gil, you're too kind because you left out my great contribution. I was getting there. My great contribution to 2023 pod, which was throwing Danny Hurley completely under the bus. And then of course, he only covered 12 straight tournament games and one back the Mac titles after that. What'd you call him? A terrible coach would know. No, no, no, I didn't think I called him terrible. The Totti would know better. Totti's very good at remembering when I say stupid things. So I don't remember what my exact wording was. You said something that was coaching the tournament, but we'll have to go back and it was pretty bad. It was pretty damning. I mean, look, for 20 minutes against Iona, it looked pretty good because Iona was winning that game at half time. And then the rest is history after that. Yeah. Well, we can you have a makeup call here. Maybe I do. Maybe I don't. All right. So we're going to try to do this. We're going to go through every single bracket here first round. We're going to give just to advance in your bracket. We're going to give ATS thoughts on this. Then we'll give the elite eight, not just the final four on this, but famously we do the elite eight here, person to person. I just want to sort of give context at the beginning of this, which is I've been saying all college basketball year. I think will you have as well? Todd made you have as well, which is this feels like, right? I do a college basketball formula every year. College basketball formula produces from that group produces the champion almost without exception for about what is it three and a half decades of doing this? And this was the year. There really isn't much to talk about last 35 champs more system turnovers. 32 of the last 35 champs at a head coach was sweet 16 experience. 2014 Yukon Huskies, Kevin Oli was always the exception of that. But two out of the last three years, Dan Hurley, 2023 of Yukon Todd Golden last year with Florida. I don't think that that sipulation is going to look bad in the end. I think those two coaches are going to look like all time coaches. 29 of the last 30 champs went into the tournament with least three wins versus teams of the top 10% of our PI 2014 Yukon Huskies, the Shabazz Napier lead Huskies. Last 30 champs had a top 75 strength of schedule, 22 of the last 23 top 20 and adjusted offensive efficiency, 2014 Yukon Huskies, the exception who finished 39th by the way, and adjusted offensive efficiency. It's unbelievable. And then 22 of the last 23 champs top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency, the 2021 Baylor Bears, the only exception there, they finished 22nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. But long story short, currently qualified, and this is going to be no surprise to anybody. It's Duke, it's Arizona, it's Michigan, it's Florida, it's Houston. Iowa states the closest on the outside looking in, but it's only those five. So that we start out with. And then as Will has been saying, and I've been saying on a numbers game, there's an underbelly under those five where there's a lot of really very good teams. So as a result, you have a situation as we do our brackets, you're in a traditional bracket. That's one thing you're incentivized to just get your elite eight, your final four, your championship game, your champion. Correct. But if you're in an upset rewarded bracket where you're incentivized to pick 13 seeds and 12 seeds and 14 seeds and 11s, it's really tough now because they're, you would think there's going to be very few of these or at least much fewer than there have been in years past. Remember all four number ones got through only the second time that that's happened since 1985 last year. So maybe this is the NIL era happening. Maybe this is going to happen. By the way, this is going to make survivor that much more difficult because you're going to have to find an upset or two, but where are they? That's going to be the trick to this. That kind of sounds right to you Todd. As a just context thing. Yeah. I mean, I guess it sounds right. I look, I just did my bracket and I, I have a lot of upsets, but not in the beginning. I have upsets more in the, in the like, you know, other rounds, not in the early rounds. Okay. I think that sounds pretty, pretty kosher with me also. Same sort of thing. Those by the way, those upset picks in a, in a subsequent round, second round, those are big for upset minded brackets or for survivor. Let's start. We'll get into some other stuff that you might have seen on some of the selection shows of Bracketology yesterday. Let's start. Let's go immediately without further ado. Let's go to the, the first region, which will start in the, I want to get the region right, the East region first, Duke's region, if you will, Duke, Sienna. First, first game, one 16 game, obviously, Duke, second best defensive efficiency and D1, Gumball though, and Caleb Foster didn't play in the ACC. Attorney didn't matter. Duke still won it. Foster fractured his foot, Duke's regular season finale against Caroline on March 7th. Gumball they hope comes back though here sooner. Foot soreness hasn't placed in Duke, Duke's win over NC State on March the second. They're the number one team in Kenpon. They're on an 11 game win streak, despite that. Sienna coached by Jerry McNamara, the Metro Atlantic, Attorney champs. They won that tournament as plus 330 preflop shot in that tournament. 29 point favorite on Duke. I assume everybody has Duke advancing. What about eight? Yes, and he play will. We'll start with you. It would be Sienna or nothing. I'll probably pass. I don't know that Duke who just seems to be hoffing and puffing here going into the tournament, didn't cover two of the three games and the one they did in the ACC's tournament. It's Clemson. We're very lucky. Need to wait. Pump back, even though they did control a lot of that game. I just don't know if they have the desire to pull away. Remember, they play slow. Sienna play slow. If I had to advise a bet here, I looked at Sienna team total under, but it's like 53 and a half. It's super low. Maybe Sienna first half team total under because I just don't know that they score here. But Duke, I think we'll be happy to just get a lead, sit on it and move on. So leaning towards Sienna, lean towards Sienna team total underbook. Probably prefer. for the first half so you don't get got in garbage time. Don't get got garbage. I agree. Third, by the way, the game is Thursday in Greenville Todd. And he play on the on the strip. The end of the only team they played that was a real team this year was Indiana. They lost 81 to 60. And I think it's an over because major blowouts. I wrote this down of the times when Duke played teams that are were higher than 200 plus in the Ken Palm. Most of the games were just complete blowouts and went over. So like Duke was winning by like 40 and one like 90 to, you know, 90 to 50 or some nonsense like that. So I think 136 is a little too low. You could throw out all the we go slow stuff and all that stuff because they're going to be up by a billion. And I think it's just going to be, you know, garbage time. So I actually wrote down I kind of like the over 136. Kind of like the over Jeffrey. Just to reiterate Todd's point. Duke played six games against 200 or higher in Ken Palm. Their lowest point total was 95. So they scored a ton and they played a quicker paces in those games. I don't know if they'll do that in this game. I'm steer and clear of this one. There are other two 15s, one 16s that I'm willing to look at. This one, I'm staying off just because of the injuries. And I don't know how invested Duke is really going to be in this game because of the injuries. Winner of Duke, Siena plays the winner of the eight nine game in Greenville on Thursday, Ohio State, TCU, eight seated Ohio State favored by two and a half points over nine seated TCU. Willie. I like TCU. I think they win. I think they might give Duke a little trouble for like a half in the next game. I think they've got the athleticism in the guards and Todd can speak to this to shut down Thornton of Ohio State. Who to me, that's just that's the head of the snake. If you can shut him down, Ohio State does not have much else. TCU, a little grier, a little better defensively, much better defensively. So they're not very pretty on offense, but I just, I'll take the better defensive team in TCU. Again, I think he's well equipped here to shut down the stud Thornton for Ohio State. TCU to advance in your bracket as well. Yes. Okay. TCU, by the way, 15 and 0 straight up when allowing 65 or fewer points, Todd. By the way, none of us talk to each other about what our bracket was other than need. Just to say that I had to, you know what I mean? So we don't know what each other asked. I have TCU as well. This is a classic offensive team Ohio State, a classic defensive team. TCU has been playing well late in the season. I just feel like in a grindy situation and NCAA tournament, I'll take the defensive team. Give me TCU to advance. Jeffrey, I have TCU as well. This is actually one of the harder games for me to pick because I like both of these teams. But one thing that I think we have to recognize with the big 10, they were mostly offense first this year. I know Nebraska ended up having a top 10 Ken Palm defense, but I think that was kind of nonsensical. Michigan obviously really good top 10 defense that guess what? Ohio State struggled to score in that game this past week. They struggled to score against Iowa this past week. I love David Punch do. I love that guy on TCU. I think in the end, I think TCU is the tougher team to advance on Twitter. Dan Grochell said apparently he was getting impatient with Todd not being ready. Said tell Todd to get his pants on already. He can't possibly still be excited about winning in tennis the other night. And if rain Cortez says great show guys, but really I'm here to see when Wishing have breaks out with the wacky sports gaster voice. I'm sure that's coming. Believe me, I'm sure that's on the way. Also now this is in the East region. This is in San Diego on Friday. Number five, saying Johns against number 12, Northern Iowa. The Johnny's favorite by 10 and a half St. John's 19 and 19 and O straight up one allowing 70 or fewer points. Second time in Big E's history, the team won back to back regular regular season and tournament titles. Can you name the last time it happened, Jeffrey Parley in the Big E's in the big E's? Yes. Regular season and tournament titles back to back. I had to be way back, right? Depends what you mean by way back. Like we're talking Georgetown error. Not quite that far. Not quite that far. Yeah. All right. That's it. It's in Willie's neighborhood. As it was so as you kind of some sort 98 99 you come. I would not have come. I would have guessed Georgetown. I would have given you a. Um, we'll start with you, Jeff. What do you think about this one? I don't think this is a great matchup for St. John's. Really don't. I don't think the lose because I just don't think Northern Iowa has enough offense in order to pull off the upset. But St. John's is often scares the hell out of me against good defenses. And this is a really good defensive team that Ben Jacobson has. There are legitimate top 25 Ken Pomp defense. They will grind you to hell out. St. John's I don't like their shooting at all. I obviously love Zubi. But St. John's advances, but this feels like too many points. I think this is a single digit game. St. John struggles, but advances here. This is exactly how I think about it. And I was I was worried this morning. I talked about on the radio side. I think everybody because of the nature of what I was talking about. We'll get into Chris Felica stats that sort of reflect when I was talking about within these points, breads and in all these, you know, widely seated games. I everybody's crowding around Northern Iowa. I like Northern Iowa to cover. I don't like them to win it outright, but Northern Iowa 360 second in pace at a 365 teams and they allow 61.33. Excuse me, 61.3 points per game. The fewest in D1. This is Friday and San Diego. Tadi. I know the stop with the Northern Iowa nonsense. I've watched too much Northern Iowa. It did. No, no. I'm sorry. St. John's Ricky Patino. We're going to be ready to storm. Maybe the storm. It's red. Does that mean your late points? No, we're not saying they're going to win. Are you laying the points with St. John? Is that what you mean? All of the points. No. Okay. That he's not really saying anything different. Willie. I with Gillie and Todd, Northern Iowa, a lot of ingredients here for a live underdog. They slow the pace as you mentioned. Best three point defense in the tournament, 28.9%. They don't allow transition. Ultimately, St. John's, it'll get tight, but I think they've just got too much athleticism for Northern Iowa here, but I think this will be very tight year, five or six minutes to go. Grind it out. Type of game. St. John's not great. I don't often say John's advances, but it's not going to be easy. Winner of the 512, St. John's Northern Iowa game plays the winner of the 413 game in San Diego on Friday, Kansas and Cal Baptist. Kansas, a 14 point favorite as the number four seed. I wanted Cal Baptist to end up in a bracket so badly where Dominic Daniels, Jr. could beat a team, but I just don't know it can do it against Kansas. Cal Baptist, the plus 155 Wack tournament champs, Jeffrey and I were just learning were on different sides of this. We both had in game bets. I got butt lucky on Cal Baptist. Oh, I bet this too. Oh, I thought you said you had you were. No, I bet. No, I bet. Oh, okay. My bad. Very lucky. Very lucky. Daniels hits three threes at the end to win it and then you tell Valley misses a dunk that would have tied it. Would have tied it or would have won it. Oh, I would have sent it over. Would have sent it over time. That's right. Jeff 14 points to touch dance. Absolutely horrendous matchup for Cal Baptist. Well, legitimately could not have done worse with the draw because look, there's this odd thing with KU this year because of the whole Darren Peterson. Well, he played. Well, he not KU. I could argue actually has been better with Peterson not playing than with him playing. But the only way that Cal Baptist was going to win a game in the tournament was if they played a team that does not really play defense and Kansas is great defensively. I think this is a runaway. I know that Cal Baptist will be a little bit of a popular spread pick, but I would lay it with Kansas. That would be the only thing I'd look to do. And I just can't get the image of Melvin council. Junior swing spin. Oh, yeah. Just all over the. Oh, but do a good block seven shots in this game too. Like I just, it's a horrible matchup for Cal Baptist. Toddie Wischniff. Yeah. And I mean, I like that Dominic Daniels kid too. By the way, Cal Baptist 106 overall and they played two real teams. Colorado. They lost 78 70 if you could call Colorado a real team and BYU. They lost 91 to 60 also a team that to me is very, you know, not great. And then Kansas, if you look at their stuff, they beat the hell out of teams in this, you know, 174 corpus Christi one by 31 green Bay. They won by 40 who's to 10. They beat David's in 90 to 61 who's 114 Kansas state. They won by a million a couple of times. I agree with you guys. I wanted to see Cal Baptist. There's such a cool fucking cool, effing story. And but it's not going to happen this time. Sorry. You're allowed to curse on the show. Oh, okay. Willie Kansas wins by 30 or it's tied with three minutes to go. I wouldn't blink if you told me either. I would advance Kansas, but to me, there are very hard team to handicap. Listen, don't let me catch you with anything in between. It's either one of those extremes. That's right. Well, those extremes. All right. Same same region, but this is in Buffalo on Thursday. Six seeded Louisville against number 11 South Florida. This is another very popular pick here anecdotally on the bowls of South Florida. Louisville is a five and a half point favorite. Todd will start with you. I have no reason to like South Florida, especially because they lost to GW. They lost Oklahoma state. They lost the VCU, the last to call it all to state. These are all teams that are ranked right around where South. I'm sorry. These are all teams that are, you know, decent teams that they, you know, are in the realm of normal teams, right? And they didn't beat any of them. And now Louisville's better than those. So it's going to be tough. But for some reason, I just have the last couple of weeks with South Florida. I've kind of been watching them more and more and I kind of just like them a little bit. And there's just something about Louisville lately. that just rubs me the wrong way. And so I don't know, there's no, I'm not, nothing's good to back this by, but I just have a feeling South Florida. I'm going to go South Florida. Okay. I'm feeling we will be getting a text from Todd wish to have at some point bet first half over this game. The pace will be incredible. I like the guards for South Florida. I'm going to advance them. I'm worried like you. It's a little bit too trendy. What upset? And this is a theme throughout the tournament. The committee punishes teams that aren't completely healthy. If you come out and say, Hey, Michael Browns, her, or my superstar, sir, they're going to punish you. So all of these teams are claiming these guys are cleared. They're good to go. But he's a lottery pick. He matters. I'm not sure he's healthy. I will take the guards of South Florida. They play a funky style, a bunch of small guys, but they can really offensive rebound. I think the fourth best offensive rebounding team in the country. And in terms of rate, I will advance the trendy underdog here with South Florida. Do you hear me say that to a follicle on a numbers game on Friday when he was talking about how like the CD of these teams, I'm like, it's kind of like that. Should these teams be out of the tournament like with Florida, state and football. He didn't really like that logic so much. Jeff South Florida, 17.1 seconds chance points per game. That's the most in D1 Louisville 11.53 pointer, three point field goals per game, six most in D1 Louisville favor by five and a half. I am terrified that we're all in the same wavelength here because this all comes down to the health of McElbrown. In McElbrown plays and his 85% are better. He's just too good and Louisville win. But I am not convinced that that will be the case. South Florida is the better coach team in this game. And I don't dislike Pat Kelsey, but Brian Hodson is a star. And he should be the next higher in Syracuse, by the way, because he's from that area in the country. But I like South Florida. I advanced them. We got to find upsets somewhere. You know, you would think somewhere this and one other 11 six are really the only two that I really like in this round of 64. This is one of them. I'll advance South Florida, but they are very, very, very trendy and that is scary. By the way, I was just getting fully a shit. I believe basketball is quite different from football. Winner of Louisville, South Florida, the 611 in Buffalo on Thursday takes on the way. You're advancing, Gilly. South Florida, just because I big like you said, you got to advance someone, right? South Florida for me. That for upset minded brackets and survivor Michigan State, North Dakota state, Louisville, South Florida, South Florida winner plays the winner of number three Michigan state, number 14 North Dakota state. Michigan state favored by 16 and a half 28 consecutive NCAA appearances for Michigan State extending its own record. Fear is 9.2 assist point, a SISPER game. Most indeed one, they are 10, 9 or Michigan state. Todd, do you want any any I assume I shouldn't assume? I am guessing you're advancing Michigan State. What about the spread 16 and a half? I am advancing Michigan state. I don't like the spread Michigan state somehow doesn't. If you look at a lot of the games, I don't just blow the hell out of people. Some games it's like, you know, it's a 12 point win. It's a 9 point win. You know, it seems that they should like really crush. It hasn't really been the case this year. So I don't want to take them on the spread. North Dakota state hasn't played anybody. Oh, you're the only real team they played. And I don't even know if you can call it real team is the same Thomas Tommy's who are 109. I think they split with them or something. But I don't, I mean, I think Michigan state's going to not really have trouble. I don't know about the point spread. Well, Michigan state advances in different on the spread. Jeff, no feel on the spread to hammer. Totties point home. The best team, the bison played all year was UC Irvine, who was 104 Kenpa. They've not played a top 100 team all year. That does not feel like a good way to go into a game where Michigan state is going to be physical fears is inevitably going to hit someone in the balls at some point. What is an all or intentional, but I Michigan state wins. I'm would will though. I'm indifferent on this red number feels right. Last couple brackets in the eight seven 10 game UCLA. A lot of people love you. CLA six point favorites against UCF, the 10 seed, a dent seven point eight assist per game. Third most in D one just talked about fears being most in D one dent. Don't have in dent. That is a within injury here, but he should play third most in D one injuries. Willie six points. Yeah, another situation where they claim everybody's healthy, but that's two key, two key guys where probably they only know and the players only know. So that's very dicey. I lean towards UCF on the spread. They didn't play great down the stretch. I think, you know what, I'll advance UCF East. If UCLA's healthy, UCLA will beat them and UCLA would give you kind all they could handle in the next round. I just don't trust the health of UCLA. So I would advance UCF very tentatively. Oh, Todd. I like a micron as a coach, but I was concerned about billado and dawn of intense injuries, of course. And also, um, UCLA hasn't been as buttoned up as in past years, in my opinion. You know, I like cronins teams that are usually gritty, gritty, gritty and buttoned up buttoned up buttoned up. But this year, I feel like it's maybe been only one and a half buttoned up as opposed to like a three buttoned up team. And so I just feel like UCF for some reason, even though I don't really love their coach, but you know, plus six sounds like a lot to me with all those injuries. And then I also took them UCF. I don't like how I'm getting all my brackets the same as Willie. And you know, that's always a bad thing. But I have UCF. Last time central Florida was an internament. They gave us the worst beat of all time. The first half against Duke where the only time they were not covering was it half time? I don't know. Yeah, that one where they should have won was the game too. I mean, I had a tip in that didn't go a Hawkins. I think was the kid's name who missed the tip and at the buzzer. Oh boy. Cronin, Cronin, Mick Cronin, I'm stunned. He hasn't whined about the fact that they got shipped to Philadelphia. It's early in the week. Yeah. Yeah. It's some time. It could happen if they lose this first game. If Billido and Dent are healthy, I don't see how in the hell UCF can beat this team. UCL is just way better. But as Will said correctly and Todd said, we don't know what the real health is for these guys. I'm advancing UCLA, typically through because I just don't think UCF has enough offense, but a bill that was not 100% then it's not 100% all bets are off. But I advance UCLA. I'm staying off of the betting wise. If this number gets a little higher, I might take UCF, but I would be shocked if it goes higher than it is right now. As you said, it's Friday in Philadelphia winner of that game plays the winner of the two 15 game. Yukon three touchdown favorite here. 21 point favorite Yukon, which blocks 10% of opponents, fieldable attempts. Fifth most in D one. Ferman is the 15 seed. The so con turny champs Southern conference turny champs that Eastern Tennessee East Tennessee state pardon me was the favorite in that tournament. Ferman wanted as a plus four 25 pre flop shot. Yukon advances. I assume everybody says you touching the spread Jeff Yukon advances. I can't remember. I just I'd like to tell you what me a gem here in the both are talking about the fact that you caught had a record of Oh, and 33 against the spread this year. That's just not acceptable. Jeffrey your thoughts. Getting totally cut off by red barber. I don't think that's that is true. I don't think that's right. I think that was a terrible. They had a terrible spread record this year like. Or bad. But but I'll just I'll just say this with this Yukon team. I don't have a problem that they're a two seed because they beat a lot of really good teams outside of the big east this year. But they've been and who knows maybe it's because the league's just not that good and will I'm curious your thoughts because you're right on top of it. They've just seen totally disinterested for two and a half months now. Totally disinterested. And that scares me. Look, they've got away with they got away with it in 23 for being completely disinterested through the whole big east. But that big east was a lot better than this one was this year. So I actually think Ferman's going to cover the game. I think this is going to like a 15 point game. Connecticut. Connecticut's never in danger, but they screw around and they went like 85 70 70 to 55. It wouldn't shock me either way with that type of total. But I think Ferman covers. They have one really good player. The name is escaping me. The big guy. You really dominated that so con tournament. But I don't really I don't really love this Yukon team this year. East bracket winner of the east will play the winner of the South before I get to that. They did a couple of things on bracketology yesterday. They add up. Not bracketology, the CBS broadcast. I don't know if you do you like that one with Seth Davis and Clark Kellogg and I can't stand those guys. Oh, that that whole show. I like the guys themselves with the actual show itself bothers me. But they do this thing where they add up all the seeds of the top four seeds by that definition. The east is the toughest. The top four sees add up to 31. The region they play on that side of the on their half is the South. They're the second hardest, which we're about to get to. The SEC ended up with 10 schools, the big 10 9, the ACC 8, the big 12, eight. That's 35 teams from the top four conferences. That's the most ever Alan Boston probably pissed about that as well. And then just to contextualize what I was saying at the top about, you know, can we put can we quantify what I was trying to say about how top heavy college basketball is now in this era. Chris Faleek are buddy the bear who I was alluding to earlier. He put out a bunch of tweets yesterday that I thought contextualized all that very well. First time since 1986 all four of the two seeds are favored by at least 20 points in the first round. Only one covered that year back in 1986 that's Yukon Furman, Purdue, Queens, Iowa State, Tennessee State, Houston, Idaho this year. 314 games dating back to 1985. They're just 14 games. Since 1985 since they expanded to 64 teams involving a three seed versus a 14 where the spread was at least 16 points all four this year are that big this year, including Illinois, which is 23 point favorite over 10. That would mark the largest spread in the three 14 game and the only one larger than 20 points ever. Although Gonzaga is a 20 point favorite against North Dakota State. So we got Michigan State, North Dakota State, Gonzaga, Kennesaw State, Virginia Wright State and Illinois pen in that category. And then Faleek goes on to say dating back to 1985. There have been just 24 13 games with the spread of at least 13 points all four of that big this year. Kansas Cal Baptist, Arkansas Hawaii, Alabama Hofstra, Nebraska, Troy. And it's the first time since 2000 that every five seed is favored by at least seven points in the round of 64 over 12 seeds all four won that year back in 2000, but just one covered the big number. That's St. John's Northern Iowa, Wisconsin, high point, Texas Tech Akron and Vanderbilt, McNiece this year. So in other words, the gap between the two 15 the three 14 the 413 and the 512 is historically large this year. So again, upset minded brackets, survivor, good luck to all East region plays the winner of the South region. That is the Florida bracket. If you will Florida, the number one seed anyway. Let's start with that the 160 in Florida against Prairie View, A&M or the Prairie View A&M Lehigh winner. We don't know who's going to win that game yet. So we don't have a take just just anybody have a Prairie Prairie View A&M Lehigh play. Lehigh favored by a field goal. Oh, you mean the playing game? I have not really dove into the playing game yet. I'm okay. I think anything Prairie View. Prairie View, the very last Ken Palm rank team in this in this tournament. Prairie View. Prairie View is the 8th in the Swat Guild. Unbelievable. Yes. One of conference tournament. So the longest shot to win a conference tournament 25 to one before the Swat tournament. By the way, Lehigh was 8 to one to win the Patriot League. Well, that was that was Navy's league and Navy got upset on that ridiculous 30 footer basically at the buzzer by BU. So I would appreciate it if the committee had a little sense of humor and matched up Lehigh and Duke, but nobody likes to have fun. I would never tell you my Lehigh assistant coach story after that. I think I told everybody that on numbers game. Tata, have you ever heard my Lehigh assistant coach story real quick? Five seconds. No, but shout out to the Swat team. I just want to shout out the Swat because the Swat has Swat TV and you can watch all the games with no problem right on any device. It's fantastic. Unlike the summit league, the charges you 800 dollars a month to try to watch those stupid games. So F you, summit league and we love you. Swat, thank you. So sometime after season McCullough and Lehigh upset Duke back in the day. Was that a 15 to yeah, 14. That was a 15 to because that was my freshman year of college. Mizzou got KOed by Kyle Aquin and Norfolk State about four in the afternoon and then three hours later McCullough and Lehigh took out Duke. So I'm hand I'm handicapping baseball in the middle seat of my plane and the dude on my right in the aisle is sort of like hanging over my shoulder. Finally asked me what I'm doing. I said, I'm handicapping baseball. He goes, you know who I am. I'm like, I don't know if he goes, I'm an assistant coach at Lehigh. I was on the bench where we beat Duke and I was like, oh wow. And he goes, you know what I can't believe still to this day. I'm like, what? He goes, Coach K refused to make any adjustments. Never forgot that story about Coach K. Well coach K. The last coach K the last 15 years was was not a particularly good coach. You just had a ton of talent. The last 15 years. Prairie view is 288 Ken Palm and and Lehigh is too. Excuse me Lehigh is 284. By the way, they'll play Florida, who's of course Ken. Number four. All right. Winner of that we assume it's Florida. Takes on the winner of the eight nine game. These are Friday games in Tampa. Clemson's the A.C. Iowa's the ninth seed Iowa. The ninth seed favored by two Jeff. I absolutely despise both of these basketball teams. I despise them both. Iowa doesn't play basketball. I love Ben McCollumay. He's one everywhere. He wanted D2. He wanted Drake. He wanted here. They don't play basketball. I don't know what it is, but they don't play. Clemson has been a complete underachiever all year. I like Iowa. I advanced them in the bracket. I just think when it's all said and done, Bennett Sturs is the best player in this game. He'll be the difference. Even though he struggled the last two weeks, I advanced the Hawkeyes, but I despise the matchup and hope whoever wins this game loses the Florida by 30. You mean you don't like 63.6 possessions per game? I know. What's the total on this game? That was 131 and a half. It opened. I think we're down to like 129. That's one of the first games I bet. I bet the owner. One of my concerns was this. I don't remember if you remember this guy. Guys, a few years ago, this might have even been six years ago. Oregon played Wisconsin in the 12.5. And a total open 128 and a half closed. 122 and a half and it went over everything. This game could end up being one of those type of games. That would be my only concern. Iowa's 63.6 possessions per game. Seconds, lowest pace in D1. Clemson, 17 and 0 straight up when allowing 64, a 65 or fewer points. Pardon me. Will Iowa by two? Ugly game. I like the under. I think Sturts gets Iowa home. I think his shot making will be the difference in what will be a game that might set basketball back 50 years. You never know how this stuff plays out, but should be ugly. I advanced Iowa. I advanced Iowa too. Todd. Climbskins for me, baby. Climmy beats Iowa. I have not been impressed this year with Iowa when they now have to play. You know, it's really the Drake team and the Drake team is really the division two team that Brent McCallum came with. And now they're in the big 10 and they were exposed for what they are, which is a bunch of white guys to me. White guys give me Clemson with Brown now, even though they have struggled down the stretch, but grind it up, baby. Todd wish to have with a Vintage Hand again. By the way, I'm pretty sure Washington bullets great, Climbskins is not involved in that. Thursday in Oklahoma City, still in the South region. Number five Vanderbilt. Number 12, McNeese Vanderbilt by 11 and a half is in Oklahoma City. McNeese 25% opponent turnover rate is the highest in division one. Willie Vandy by 11 and a half. Yeah, I didn't have too many issues with the committee. Pretty surprised though. Vandy got a five. That was disrespectful. I thought St. John's getting a five was a little disrespectful. I think Vandy wins. I would lean towards them covering. We'll see if we can eventually get a sweet 16 rematch between Vandy and Florida, but I'm not betting this game. I think the favorite wins. Who would you have bounced if Vandy and St. John should have been higher? Who would you have bounced? Bam on somebody? Yeah, and then the problem is St. John's lost to Bama, which is probably why. Yeah, it's just, I was surprised there were five, but you're right. It's, I don't know. I'm not sure I would have moved down. Good point. Todd, Andy, 11 and a half. I like, I like McNeese team total under based on the 11 and a half and the 151 were probably looking at about an 80 to 7, 81 to 70 game here. So probably McNeese team total is probably going to be around 70 ish. I mean, I've watched McNeese play a lot against the Houston Christians and the East Texas an M's in the Northwestern States and these kind of teams and they don't really like score a lot. You know, I don't like their offense. You know, against those teams and now they're going to play a real team like Vanderbilt. So I think they might have a hard time scoring, but I'll take Vandy to move on and I'll take McNeese to not give us a lot of points. Jeffrey parlay. This will be a complete and utter ass kicking. Yeah. Vandy is going to destroy them. It's just a matter of will they take the foot off the gas pedal too early. So maybe you could be in a situation where you get hosed at the end. Well, you could bet on the first half. Jeffrey, you did say first half, Jeffrey. Exactly. Exactly. Exactly. I think I'd lay Vandy first half. I they're just the only concern is when you always have a team make the conference championship game, especially when it ends later in the week. I'm a little bit worried about that with Vandy, but they're just so much better. So Vandy advances. By the way, Jeff parlay's real name is Jeff Parlay's P-A-R-L-E-S. I should probably point that out. I say parlay so often when Jeff was my producer that Jeff's late grandfather introduced himself to me as Gil Steven parlay. I was so embarrassed. It's just shameful. Winter of Vanderbilt, McNeese plays the winner of the 413 game in Oklahoma City on Thursday between Nebraska and Troy. I think we'll play on Thursday, but these two games aren't Thursday. Nebraska 13 point favorites over Troy. And I have to say this. I'm contractually obligated to say, you know what I'm going to say, the only power conference school to never win a tournament game ever. Oh, and eight is this the day. Jeffrey, I really want to take Troy, but I can't. I can't get there. I just can't get there. I just think when it's all said and done, Nebraska does have really good guards. And those guards will end up winning the day here. I think Troy covers. I think this is a close game till the end. I love Scott Caross, their coach. I think this is a close game, but Nebraska finds a way to get that first tournament win. Wow. Nebraska started this season, of course, famously 20 and 0, six and six since. Harry? You know Nebraska, you know, Jim and Nebraska hasn't lost the team right higher than 27 all year. How about that? They lost to Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, Iowa and you see a land that Purdue, none of those teams. I will say none of those teams were so 27. So when Nebraska is supposed to win, they win because Troy is 143. That's a lot higher than 127. I'm going to say Nebraska will move on. Also, Troy played San Diego State like real teams. They played San Diego State number 48 one and over time and played USC number 80 and lost it over time. So that's just a little a little insight into who Troy is. Triple overtime. That game was insane. Remember that once. I'll be yes. There were five over time to those two games. Yes, yes. But anyways, Nebraska is going to they haven't lost anybody bad. So I'm giving Nebraska. I'm going to say that. Dr. Bob would call them a bully Nebraska beaten up on the teams that they should beat. Not the teams above them will. Troy will be trendy here. An interesting stat at T-hold 42. It does a great job if you guys know with he calls it the sheet. All these little fact toys about this team. Reading off his thing now three point field goal per cent. Per cent 45 percent point. Oh my god, I can't talk. 45.6% of their shots are threes. They only shoot 33% from three. So they take a ton of them. They just don't make them to me. That introduces a lot of variance here. I think Nebraska wins. I think Troy probably covers again. Troy will will be trendy here. But just a weird profile for a team to take that many threes and not be good at it. Other side of the region Thursday and greenville South Carolina. Number six North Carolina speaking of teams with injuries Caleb Wilson with the right thumb injury. Against number 11 VCU 16 and once in January 14th. But the selection committee chair Keith Gil, the commissioner of the Sunbelt said they would not have been in the field if they didn't win the A 10 turn. Caroline is a two and a half point favorite Jeff. Oh, they'll line this so short. Yeah. But, but without Caleb Wilson, North Carolina is not any good. And Hubert Davis is going to get out coached in this game. I'm Artelli Junior. So I'm on VCU. I like them. And I'll advance them. They're going to be super trendy. That line is way too short. But I'm going to go against my better judgment and still advance VCU in that game. I'm advancing VCU too because again, you got to advance some upsets. Yeah. But since you said the words Hubert and Davis, it gives us a chance for the annual study of the humor Davis story from Todd Wisch, Dave, everybody Todd, please tell us your Hubert Davis story. I was born in 1995. I was living in Manhattan, New York City and used to go to the 92nd Street Y for afternoon basketball. But there was only one court. So if you didn't stay on the court, you sat and that was the end of your workout. So you had to win this day on the court. I'm on the court. And I'm telling this black guy who doesn't look like he's playing very hard. I have North guy. My baby blue North Carolina shorts on. And this guy is not playing very hard. And I want to win because I want to stay on the court. I'm saying, give me the ball. And let's do this. He said, no problem. North Carolina. No problem. I'll get you the ball. North Carolina. He's calling me North Carolina because I got my baby blue North Carolina shorts on. And so we ended up winning the game. And then we're sitting on the side. And this guy who was on our team comes up to me goes, do you know who that was? You were telling to give you the ball. This is by the way, when I was really good. I was probably good enough to play Division 3. But good enough to beat the idiots at 92nd Street Y. Anyways, the guy says to me, because you know that was that you were telling the person you the ball. I said, no, no, he goes, that was Hubert Davis. He was on the nicks. Okay. I was telling him to pass with the ball because he doesn't look that imposing. He was probably my height. I don't think he's really six three. I think he's more like six one. And he wasn't playing hard. And so I had no idea with anyways, it was Hubert Davis. And that's why he was calling me North Carolina because he went to North Carolina. So anyways, it was just very, very funny. I'd be rating Hubert Davis to give him the ball. Where you got Todd, North Carolina by two and a half. North Carolina against VCU. I hate that everybody lives the same thing. I don't even like this year's VCU team. I want it. Can I pick net last year's VCU team? I want last year's VCU team to advance. I don't like this year's VCU team, but I don't like North Carolina. And I just, I had to pick like you guys keep saying the same thing over and over, but I had to pick VCU. I don't want to pick him, but I guess I have to pick him. And so I'm taking VCU. I don't really want to though. Really? I loved Caleb Williams. Love Caleb Wilson. I think he's just so underrated. So I had a principal on picking VCU, but my goodness, I watched them try to close out that that final against Dayton. That was a thing of absolute pain and torture on Sunday, just an endless loop of misfree throws, miss shots. I was not impressed. So I'll be grudging pick here for VCU. Winner of the Carolina VCU game in Greenville on Thursday. Also, we'll take on the winner of this game. Illinois Penn, the 314, the Align Eye with the highest offensive efficiency in D1, the Ken Palm overall number seven. They are a 24 point favorite over Penn who won the Ivy League tournament beyond 44 from TJ Power. What a game that was against Yale. Penn won that tournament as a plus 650 shot. But Illinois, as I said, favorite by 24, Will will start with you. I wanted to have a game where I could pick Penn. I don't know. I know. I was hoping to too. And they do shoot the three very well, almost 39% and they don't foul. So those are a couple of good things, but they play too fast. I wonder if the committee had a little sense of humor here putting a calf regains an old big 10 team conference. He used to coach in. I'll do the cop out of Penn scores enough to cover, but Illinois probably not in any danger of actually losing the game. Dottie. You know, Penn's going to obviously win this by a million. Who knows about 24 points. Maybe I would take, if I was going to take Illinois, maybe I'd take him first half. Oh, by the way, Penn, I also wrote this down. Penn played two teams that were real teams. You're proven in 71. They lost 106 to 81 and they played Villanova number 83. They lost 90 to 63. So, you know, that doesn't bowed well. TGA power always have that IV champion. Just. Yeah. And that is more than good enough for a Penn team that I didn't think was going to be any good going into this year. Horrible matchup. They will likely give up over 100 in this game. Illinois team total over probably will be the play in this. There will be a long. It's in 87. It's 63. And that's fine with me. I was going to say as long as it's not like 92 and a half, I like that over. We're 87 and a half 88 now. 87. Yeah. That's what it'll be 87. Yeah. We'll go that Illinois team total over who knows 24 points is a tournament. A team that can score it. I can score 12 points in the last five minutes and be down 30 and lose by 18. So we'll go Illinois team total over. Just a couple brackets in this region and Oklahoma City on Thursday number seven. St. Mary's number 10 Texas A&M St. Mary's favored by three. They're 80.5 free throw percentages. The best in D one in Texas A&M's 35.6 bench points per game. Second best in D one. St. Mary's by three will what a fascinating contrast of style. St. Mary's super slow. Texas likes to play a chaotic. You know, version. It's the old saying or the old question. Is it easier to speed a team up or slow them down? I think it's always easier to to slow a team down. I think St. Mary's their style prevails. I will advance the gales. A&M did not play well. You know, second half last quarter of the season. Tadi. Texas A&M one of the one of the teams like the big teams that I didn't really watch a lot this year. You know, you would think I watched like every single team and then maybe some just, you know, slip through the fingers. But I like St. Mary's here. Usually I'm wary to take St. Mary's in most years because it seems like they get into like a tournament and then all of a sudden, you know, it's too much talent for them to overcome. But I feel like this year they have that guy from, I don't know if he's from Serbia or Lithuania or somewhere, somewhere like that. And he's real good. I like that guy and I like some of their big bruiser white guys they have inside and I like that little guard they have. So you know what, I'll take St. Mary's to get through against, against Texas A&M and maybe that 147 is a little bit high because I kind of agree with Willie. I think it's easier to slow things down than to go fast. So 147 sounds a little high or maybe even first half under maybe you go under 69 and a half. It'll probably be somewhere in that range. So yeah, let's go with St. Mary's. Jordan, sweet gals are better gals when you know, I like it winner of St. Mary's Texas A&M takes on the winner of the two 15 game in Oklahoma City Houston, the two seed versus number 15 Idaho, the Vandals won the big sky conference tournament as the set and the seed at plus 950. They were the longest shot besides Prairie view to win their conference tournament. They're 39% of their points rather 39% of their points scored on three point field goals. Houston's Ken Poms fifth ranked team overall commit the fewest turnovers per game in D1 8.5. They're 23 and a half point favorites Todd. I just want to say, I just want to say, I'm advancing Houston. Yes. Yes. But I'm advancing Houston, but this is not your yes, of your yes, your year, your Houston team. I do not like this team used in this year. I used to love Houston every year. year. This is not my favorite Houston team. I don't think they're the real real deal like lock you down to the point of, you know, strangulation type defense. Even though the number five overall on defense, but I just don't feel it's the vintage type Houston team. Of course, they can get past Idaho, obviously, you know, and I have no real opinions other than to say, you know, in some of these games where it's a total mismatch and the numbers real low, like 136 like that Duke Sienna game we were talking about. Sometimes you can get the team total of the good team. If the pace is a little bit faster than you might think and you can play them. For instance, in this game, if it's one if it's 23 and a half, a one 36, that means the team total in this game for Houston was going to be a 68 plus 11 and a half. It'll be around 79 and a half, which is not really that many points. And if you notice that Idaho has absolutely no answers inside against Houston. And you see like every time the throwing them ball inside and they're just dunking it, getting every offensive rebound and killing them, you might want to play Houston team total over because that has a tendency to happen when they, you know, play these kind of like Joker Joker teams. Wilson, Hilson, usually a staple for me is to bet the team total under of whoever Houston plays in the first round. I can remember a couple of years ago, it was like a long wood had maybe like 18 points in the first half, but to Todd's point, this is not the same version of Houston that can just strangly defensively would lean towards Houston, but I'll ultimately pass in terms of the side of the total. It's funny because I think Kingston Fleming's is the best player Samson's ever had. And this is just not you guys are right. It's just not the same death by strangulation defense that they've normally have. They win easily. I'll be interesting what we think later on in the tournament, but they'll win. That's a lot of points, but they probably covered. All right, other side of the bracket, let's do it. We're halfway through and then we'll get to everybody's elite eight picks. Remember again, just there are the context of this year, how we'll see if it pans out this way. But last year, no one to three or four seed lost in the first round. So only the second time that's happened, 28th, 2008 was the other time. But we'll see, remember the biggest characteristics for a giant killer, biggest characteristics for an upset minded team in the tournament is each extreme. One, you have tremendous three point shooting variance and you hit a lot of threes. The other thing is slowing the pace way down. So we're talking about Northern Iowa, right? Just the fewer possessions you have, the more variance you can have that way. In other words, if I was playing SGA in a game of one on one and the game was to one, I have a chance on a miracle heave or you're going to be in tennis. Whoever said we played a game to one in tennis, you might win once in your life. You sent yourself up for that one. I just just served. Yeah. All right, West bragged. Let's go Friday, number one, this is in San Diego, number one, Arizona, number 16 L.I.U. coach by Rod Strickland, 31 and a half, Jeff fins up, baby. No, not really I know Arizona rolls Arizona to me going into this tournament is the best team. They are, they are unbelievable defensively. They are deep. They are youthful. I do not trust Tommy Lloyd one bit. Yeah, that's also I was going to say Todd, who's the coach you trust the least in college basketball is it Tommy Lloyd? I mean, from the big neighbors, you know, Tommy Lloyd always scares the bejesus idea. You touching this spread, 31 and a half. Oh, me? No, I'm not telling you just but by the way, you know, if you look at like Arizona again, Arizona's offense is just unbelievable. You look at them against these teams like, okay, L.I.U. is 216. You know, they played South Dakota State. They got 99. They played Utah 126. They got 97. They played Kansas State 101. They got 101. They played Bethune Cookman. They got 107. They played Abelene. They got 96. They played Denver. They got 103. I mean, they got so many points against these teams that are just not real teams. So, you know, your team total in this one was going to be right around that I would think 91. 92. I'd be surprised if they didn't get that. And if you have a place where they have first half team totals, which now a lot of places have first half team totals, you know, because you might be scared to go at the end. Arizona like, you know, takes all the guys out and it's all the scram. He's not that the scram. He's can't score against L.I.U. I'm sure they could. But if you're worried about that, you could always take the first half team total. And so if you're going to have a team total of like 91. 92. The first half's not going to be 46. It's going to be a little bit lower. It'll probably be like 4445-ish. And I don't see why you can't get the 4445-ish with the wild cats. Tommy Lloyd can't mess it up against L.I.U. And against L.I.U. well, we talked about teams that have good profiles as underdogs. L.I.U. is the opposite. They want to play with some pace. They want to run. They want to attack the rim. Arizona over first half team total over. Lade the points. Arizona might have this 31 or so covered by half. Wow. I can't believe Rod Striclin's a head coach with that. When he was playing for the Bullets, by the way, second Bullets reference on the show. His kid was on the team too. He was on the pitch. His team. His team was the kid was on his kid was on the team at least last year. I don't know about this year. Fast here it was. You a good coach. Yeah. I like there's nothing at L.I.U. You know that. Like, but they made the tournament one one regular in post. Not bad. It's like junior high gym. It's actually pretty cool. Pretty much pretty much. Pretty much winner of that game. We assume it's Arizona plays the winner of the eight nine in San Diego. Villanova wild cats are the eight seed Utah state. The mountain west are they led the mountain west. I should say in points per game, field will percentage and paint points per game. They are two point favorites. Are Utah state Jeff. Very difficult game because every single time I've seen Villanova this year, I watch them and I'm like, how does Willard have this team in the tournament? Like just every time I've watched them. So I actually think it's been a tremendous coaching job. Like Evan Willard there to have them here. But I don't really like Utah state against higher end competition. The mountain west was was more compact this year. And then I don't I don't really love this Utah state. My advanced Villanova begrudgingly here, Gell against Utah state. Toddie Wischniffe. I was in the University of Pittsburgh Panthers. I was in University of Pittsburgh the year that Kevin Willard and his and his dad was the coach and he was on the team. I played pickup with him many times. He was not much better than me. I promised you he really was not much better. He was not a division one player and they let him play because his daddy was the coach and a nice guy and everything. But and Jason male was on the team. He's in one of my classes too. And he was really good player. But so I played I played pickup with him in Orlando and Teeville one time or Lando and Teeville had the biggest hands and he used to be a coach but anyways, enough of that. The Villanova. I like Utah state as a team. I really do, but I can't I can't take the Aggies against Villanova. There's just something. You know, Willard is a pretty good coach. He really is. And I like Villanova. I just like them all year. I like what they do every time I look up their winning. And I just don't I don't know if the Aggies have enough. I'm it's a tough game. Obviously I'm going to take Nova. Well, I went with Utah state, but you tossed state has some high high, some low lows and you always wonder these kind of finesse teams when they get against the bigger more physical power conference teams. Do they just get overmatched physically? Do they get bumped off their spots? Do their screens get blown up things like that? So I like Utah state, but I will not be betting this game. All right, Thursday in Portlandia. Number five Wisconsin against number 12 high point high point with the longest active win streak of the nation 14 game winning streak. Wisconsin is a nine and a half point favorite. The only D1 team with two players averaging 19 plus points per game. Nick Boyd John Blackwell. Well, Wisconsin by nine and a half. I don't know if high point will be trendy because last year they were trendy and Purdue blew their doors off. I'm high point could not get any stops. I just don't think high point profile as well as a dog. Here they just don't defend well enough. There's always a chance Wisconsin has an off night with the three. I'm not going to lay the points, but I will advance with constant. I'm not really buying high points profile as a sleeper. 100 dogs. Todd. I can't believe Wisconsin is 22 and Ken problem. There are 11 on offense number 51 on defense. In my opinion, the two best wins of the year are from the Wisconsin Badgers. The Badgers went into Illinois and one. They also went into Michigan and one. They also hang around even when they're down 12. They're not really out of it. We saw that one kid make about 800 threes in a row in that tournament game the other day. I love this Wisconsin team and I just think that they're much better than they, you know, people are making them out to be. Now high point is not as good as high point last year. They've screwed me a number of times on team total overs. So screw you high point and I like Wisconsin. And you know what? I think this is too trendy. Isn't this a trendy pick? Everyone taking high point plus the points. Am I right about that? The line went down because yes, screw you high point. I'm going with Wisconsin, baby. By the way, what did you say at the beginning? Because your audio got walkie. You said you can't believe they're only a five seat. Is that what you said? No, I said I can't believe they're 22 on Ken Palm. I yeah, they shouldn't be a five. I think they should be higher with content as two of the best. They have the two best wins in the entire nation. Okay. Are you right Ken Palm? Right. An email is strongly worded emailing. Yeah. All strong. I'm not bad. There's numbers. I'm not mad at Ken Palm. I'm just mad at that. I mean, I guess because they lost the Oregon and they lost to, you know, USC. That's probably what got him. But it's still I just feel like they're good. I like Wisconsin. That gilly, this is definitely a trendy one for the non better. The non better is all over high point. And I don't think you possibly could have drawn up a worse matchup for high point because Wisconsin plays the same damn way that high point does, but they're significantly better than they are. And that's usually a terrible mix when that happens when Will's brought it up earlier and you brought it up. And in order to pull off upsets, you have to go complete contrast or you got to make a ton of threes high point might make a ton of threes in this game, but Wisconsin's probably going to make a ton of threes too. So I advanced to Badgers. This is actually my first survivor play as well. Wisconsin Badgers. Yeah. This is my first survivor play. Because I hate their matchup with what I think they're going to get in around the 32. Real quick for people who've never played survivor before. Ideally, what you're trying to do in survivor is pick a team that will then get knocked out right afterwards. It's not as important in the first and second round, but still ideally, but certainly when he gets to the sweet 16 and lead eight, you want that to happen because the key with survivor is because it's a bracket format. Unlike the NFL, it's not only enough to pick the same team on each of the 10 days and not, you know, can't pick the same team twice. You have to have teams left at the end or you get knocked out that way as well. So what Jeff is talking about, that's an interesting pick. So you want to get frisky in survivor, but you don't want to get that frisky and Wisconsin fits the bill there for Jeff. So that's the Wisconsin high point game. By the way, you're talking about like who are the trendy. So with less than 24 hours away from selection Sunday, I'll just tell you what I've soaked in in less than 24 hours anecdotally. I think the trendy plays and I'm guilty of this as well being on these. Most people seem to be congregating around. Northern Iowa plus the points against St. John, not me. Akron plus the points, which you haven't, oh, not Todd, Todd's not taking the points. Akron feels very trendy. By the way, trendy shouldn't be a bad word. I'm just telling you who everybody seems to be in a year where upsets are going to be rare. It feels like it feels like everybody's on the same handful. So Northern Iowa Akron South Florida, a little, a little bit of Santa Clara, which we haven't gotten to yet. Right in and what I'm forgetting one. You see you. Doesn't really count. Because it's too short. I'm forgetting one, but we'll get to it. Okay. Winner of Wisconsin High Point takes on the winner of Arkansas Hawaii, the 413 game in Portland on Thursday. Arkansas led by Darius A. Cough, Jr. Arkansas won the SEC tournament as a six to one second shot behind Florida. 12% turnover rate, the lowest in D1 Hawaii, the 13 seed. They allow 9.3 assists per game. Oh, how about that? Fewest in D1. So I was favored by 15 will thought about taking Hawaii, but you know what? You know, I would be doing it just to do it. Maybe they hang for a half, but I just don't think they guard well enough. And times probably watch some more than me. I don't think they guard well enough to stay in front of a cuff and just the athleticism, the guard play for Arkansas. I think gets them home. We'll probably lean towards taking the points. Like I feel like I said that for a bunch of these games, but the Arkansas athleticism just too much here. I can't really make a case for Hawaii pulling the upset as much fun as it would be. I think last time they were in the tournament a decade ago, they did pull off an upset but it's going to be Arkansas, I would believe. They'd be Jalen Brown at Cal. Good call. Yeah. What do they? 13 for. Yeah, so I thought the rainbow warriors at 108 and Ken Palm are one of those weirdo teams that I talk about sometimes on the A and G show where they're 43rd on defense and 211th on offense. They're also super fast in tempo. It's 61. So that puts me in a now Arkansas could score on anyone. Okay, Arkansas can score it anyone. They're going to run up and down the court and Hawaii is going to also run up and down the court. And I think there's just going to be too many possessions for Hawaii to hang around. So if you take Hawaii, you better take them in the first half. And so I think this could get ugly because there's just going to be too many possessions. Even though Hawaii is good on defense, they're not, they're not good enough and they're not going to be able to score at 211th on offense. That's that's always their problem with the white. So yeah, I don't know about the points, but if you're going to take the point spread, you better take Hawaii in the first half, not for the game because it's, you know, too many possessions. And this is a third on a quick turn. Why do we have to put it all after winning the conference tournament? Yeah, well, there's that. Now that one other thing, why did they have to put Arkansas and Wisconsin in the same damn thing? I wanted to take Arkansas and Wisconsin all the long way. And now I'm stuck because I have two of the teams that I want going against each other. Can I get a reshuffle? Did Todd, this is the exact thing that I said when the bracket came out. St. Johnson, Kansas, I both really like their together. Arkansas and Wisconsin, I would argue to the best four and best five seed there together because Alabama's profile from noncon pushed them ahead of both of them. And I think Alabama's terrible by the way. They're without weed. They're terrible. Yeah. Yeah. That was a good one this morning. This morning, you know, I would have loved to have seen Hawaii draw Nebraska because I actually think Hawaii could beat Nebraska. But I think they have absolutely no chance of winning this game. It's going to be close for about 30 minutes. But the best player in America is going to put it away. There is a cup is the best player in this tournament. He has the, they can get by Wisconsin in around a 32. That is a matchup that should terrify the absolute hell out of Arizona because as good as Arizona is, he comes the best player on the floor. And Arizona has not had many cases this year where either burries or peep were not the best player on the court in those games. I was actually thinking Wisconsin was the scarier matchup just because there are three point variance. But that thing. Look, I don't think the, I don't think either of these teams are a great matchup for Arizona because if Wisconsin gets through Wisconsin could make 15 threes on Arizona and Arizona because who's lose because they don't shoot many. But Wisconsin's only 25 in Kenpon though. Did you know? Not a favorite, not a favorable draw for either Arizona or Duke that's in round. It's not favorable. Did you just rank a cup above DeBonza? Yes, he says yes. And yes, he's not, he's the number one player in this tournament. I'm forgetting. I have the bonds. The rating is over. It goes in up. It's the case. If you're wondering, I have the points as the 89 best players. You can't stand the point. I don't, I don't agree with that Todd, but I can shoot three better than DeBon. I'm not even going to dignified. I would response. Um, you don't understand. Todd uses those glass. Very nice. I stopped by the way. I'd never heard the Hubert Davis story before. So which is an old timer. Um, but get me a ball in the rock. He is Scottie. He's I can shoot the rock. I can take it down low. I can give you the dream moves on the post. Maybe I can do it all. Todd here. The only person I know that I would possibly have done that to an MB. A player, but, but, but you guilt. What A cuff can do. Yeah, he's great. He is unbelievable. Then one problem with Arkansas is they have absolutely no depth. So if you get a weird game and this could happen against a Y E 2, you get a weird game where the refs are calling too much. They could be, they could be a little bit of a problem for them, but A cup to me, best player in the story. California said his moments too. Sorry. I'm sorry. Yeah. But I think I will. I think last year, exercise, the lot of those demons, even with that collapse in the sweet 16 against Texas. Second part of the West bracket speaking of DeBonza, succeeded BYU. This Thursday in Portland, succeeded BYU. Most NCAA appearances without ever making a final for 32 for BYU. There you go. Danny Angi, anybody? DeBonza 25.3 points per game, most in D1. They play the winner of Texas NC State, the play in game. So there's no line on this obviously because we don't know the opponent, but Texas NC State is a pick. I'm will. Do you have any play on that in the plan? I believe that was a rematch of a Maui game earlier in the season that was like 103 98 or something like that. I would think Texas, who gets the line at high rate, has enough to get by NC State. NC State hasn't played well. It's on the season. So would lean towards Texas, would lean towards BYU beating Texas, then would probably parly that with DeBonza beating Todd. Not only a three point contest, but then smoking his ass in tennis right after. So that's a nice little four leg parly for you. You know, you know, Todd does on the basketball court. We actually whips out a protractor and then he banks it perfectly off the glass. I've seen it with my hands. We got our eyes pretty tremendous. He does. Winner of BYU Texas NC State, which of course we don't know BYU's opponent, but the winner of that 6/11 plays the winner of the 3/14 game. I didn't even get to say my team on BYU and all that. You didn't even let me do my BYU. Well, because you have a Texas NC State play because of your line with the BYU. What I do, I have NC State to beat Texas because Texas stinks and NC State, I like the coach, give me, no, I'm sorry. I like NC State. NC State plays BYU and they crushed BYU. The damn Latter-day Saints are the most overrated team Christian or otherwise out there, even those some people say maybe the Mormons aren't Christian. I don't know. I'm not getting into that whole thing. I will just say this, BYU is a overrated joke team all year. Get out of here with that BYU crap. Give me NC State to beat BYU. I hate you BYU and I used to love playing BYU teams. I love playing BYU teams. You're usually very buttoned up not this year and the bands forget the hell out of here with that the bands are crap. Terrible. He hates the ones. I don't think I hate the ones. He's overrated. He's a good player. But all this, oh, is debaunted. No one picked me. He's the number one pick. I'm, I'm, I'm eight feet tall. I was wondering where that was. By the way, I have nothing on the play in game. I think both those teams stink. And I think BYU will house either of them. The disagree. You know, you know, I tried to skip top. No, I know. BYU's going out first round. BYU was also in consideration for survivor as well, because I don't think they met. I think they match up terribly with Gonzaga who you were about to get to. By the way, I, I do agree with you about to bounce as like the number one pick in the draft. He's too much of a tweeter, right? For the NBA. He doesn't shoot the ball. Well, look at it. Show it. Well, ugly. Whoever successfully tanks for this first overall pick man, they're going to have like Peterson with his issues and the bonds like this. If you don't hit this one, you're going to be fired in a couple years. This is not an easy draft to choose from, even though there's so many good players. Aren't the Utah jazz though, absolutely going to pick him if they end up with a number one 100% age. There's no emotional attachment to anything. Age would, I don't, I don't know if age things like that. I think he would. I think he would. Winner of that game, whether it's Texas or NC State against BYU, takes on the Gonzaga, Kenna saw state 314 game. Gonzaga is a 20 and a half point favorite. Gonzaga 27th straight NCAA tournament. But last year, there's streak of nine straight sweet 16s was snapped. If you recall, Kenna saw state plus 850 was their pre flop number to win the conference USA tournament, which they did. But again, 20 and a half, Jeff. This is the biggest seating miss by the committee. Kenna saw should have been a 16 seed. And that was a miss. Now Gonzaga benefits shocker. Feels like they benefit from everything at this point. I thought the same. But you know, boy, I kind of want to take the points because I really do not like this Gonzaga team. But I like, I think I'm going to have Gonzaga way too far, even though I don't really like them. But again, 20 feels about right, Gilt. That was a long way to say I'm probably taking the points, even though I think this Kenna saw should be a 16 seed. Dottie. Give me Kenna saw state first half points, whatever you're going to get. This Gonzaga team is the story of two teams. I was full bonerized in the first half of the season with the Gonzaga team. Just crushing people in the non-conference full bonerization. And then they lost that big white guy who was good. I think his name was half as I what the guy's name was. He was like a left hand. It might be back though. They say he's back. I think he's back. Then throw all this out. Supposedly, but the point is hard to get information. I feel like that half guy with half, they were really, really good. I loved them. I was full bonerization without half. I'm not even full flaccid. Complete flaccidation because you know what? This Gonzaga team without half stunk the whole year. I didn't like them at all. So to me, it's all about that half guy. That half guy really made a difference. Next breath. As soon as we get as soon as we get off the air, Towsie, going to be like, I don't say why anybody gives me. It doesn't give me a job. That is what happened. You said I can swear. Hey, you said I could swear. You said I could swear. I can't really swear. You're just making everyone uncomfortable. You said I could. You said I could be tough to follow. Canis saw plays fast. They attacked the run. They're athletic, but athleticism is not the way to play. And you know, uptemples not the way to play when you're the underdog. We'll see here if Huff gets clear. It's hard to know with these injuries who's telling the truth or not. We're leaning towards Gonzaga. Gonzaga would advance, but not betting this. All right, last two brackets in this region, 710 game Friday and St. Louis. Miami is the 7C. They are one and a half point favorites against the fighting Jeff Parles and Ben Wilson's of Mizzou. Faith the ten C Jeff. You are on your honor. Thank Jeffrey stank and the gold team stank. Can you let me get to my point here? Jesus. So first off, this is this is unbelievable from the committee to do this. A ten seed with a de facto home game. Yeah, Ben Wilson is on the committee apparently. Crazy, crazy. And it benefits my own mother and I think it's insane. That this happens with that said, the Miami hurricanes are going to win this game by 15 points because because two things. One, this is a massive coaching advantage for Miami. And there are going to be Mizzou people that are going to be pissed at me for sayiness. Dennis Gates is a terrible in game coach terrible terrible. He's a great recruiter, but he is now in his career after losing to Kentucky and the SEC title or SEC tournament. He's now two and nine in March in his career. Two and nine. Is that good? Not good. Yeah. And this is Miami. This Miami team is tough. They're like, look is this is an amazing turnaround. They were dreadful last year. Now they're in the NCAA tournament and I think they're going to win this game comfortably. The only thing that can save Mizzou in this game, Mark Mitchell is amazing. And he has been great down the stretch. He could score 35 in bail. Mizzou out. But Miami, I think more likely than I wins this game despite it being a road game. And they win it and cover with these sounds like Miami might be a survivor. Considerations. We'll get that out a little bit later, Gully. Mizzou by the way Todd before you before you just absolutely dunk on Mizzou. You should know they are the Harvard of Boone County, Mizzou. There we go. Just want to point that out there we go. Right Todd. I mean, you got to wonder a place that would take both Ben Wilson and Jeff Perales. But the right up. No, I don't like Mizzou all year. I don't like them. I like Miami. Miami's been like, you know, plucky. They've been, you know, I'm not going to call them buttoned up or anything, but they've been, you know, they've been like, oh, Miami. Look, Miami's winning again. Look at that Miami. You know, so I'll take Miami over Mizzou. I don't like Mizzou. It's more of an anti Mizzou. Todd almost drifted into his Yiddish. Will you want the potato? Go go or the little co-sorty. Go into potato. Miami's slightly better on a neutral court straight. Neutral. I would lean towards Miami, but the home court of Missouri. And I think the size of Missouri and their offense is enough to get them home. I don't like fading Jeff Perales in the team. He knows very well, but Dennis Gates advances here. Dennis Gates this week to the round of 32 in Missouri. Winner of Miami, Mizzou takes on the winner of the 250. Where are you? Where are you picking here? Oh, I'm taking Miami. OK. I'll take him to the winner of that game. Pleas the winner of the 250 in Purdue and Queens of North Carolina. The Royals won the Atlantic Sunterney championship or Atlantic Sunterney with the as a four to one preflop shot. Third job behind Austin P in Central Arkansas. Purdue was a 25 and a half point favorite Jeff. This is the same principle as the Illinois Penn game where Purdue is going to score. As many points as Purdue wants to score in this game. Queens played Todd. I think you probably will have this. Queens played three high end teams and noncon they gave up 100 to all of. So well, they lost his loan to be. Purdue. It was 94 74. They lost to Villanova. They lost 94 69 Virginia. They lost 108 80 to Arkansas and 1065 to Auburn. OK. So 94 plus and four games against real teams. Purdue team total over likely be the play for me in this game. Oh, OK. Todd anything you know, Purdue is the number one offense in in the Ken Poms, which I can't even believe, but they're number one in the whole country. It's unbelievable. Purdue. But you know, no, it was no. No, it was number two. Oh, did they? OK. Anyways, Purdue obviously is good to score a lot of points because Queens doesn't. Queens gives up a million to North Florida. And when they play Austin P and when they play Central Arkansas, they're going to give up a lot to produce. Sorry. Willie, echo those sentiments and you would think of any coach that would be focused here as a 20 something point favorite. It would be painter who has had his troubles here as a big favorite. I think Purdue moves on would lean towards them. Lane points. Stephen Fethic released this Purdue minus 85 100. Hey, just remember, just remember Matt painters, Owen one in the tournament all time straight up as a 2021 and a point, 21 point favorite or more now. So that he is. That is winner of the West region. Takes on the winner of the Midwest Midwest. Our final region Thursday and Buffalo. Number one Michigan Ken Palm number three will take on the winner of the UMBC Howard universe. I like the carriers. The battle for the 90. Terriers, baby. Terriers on a 12 game win streak by the. Terriers only favorite UMBC. That is favored by one and a half over the bison of powered out. Terrier, like that will anything like. No, I believe this is the first time UMBC is back in the tournament. Since that that win of Virginia, West to Kansas State, would lean towards them, watch a little bit of them the other day in that title game. That's the one league or one of the leagues that does it right and gives an advantage to their higher seeds. I would lean towards them, but that would be the only way to play it. That was dare you. Terrier, but I'm going to be on UMBC in this game. They're understated. They should have been a 15 seed. I like the Terriers. UMBC. a commuter school in cadence bill over the pride and joy of Northwest Washington, T.C. Winner of the Michigan game, we assume it's Michigan over the winner of that UMBC Howard game, plays the winner of the eight nine game in Buffalo in the Midwest. Georgia the eight seat, a two and a half point favorite over number nine, St. Louis. Georgia has not won a tournament game since 2002. I haven't been there much though. That's wow. That guild that streak will continue. I like to build out right now. I did not like how they played in the eight ten tournament and they did not play well down the stretch the regular season either. They needed to come from 21 down to be GW in the quarter in the quarters. And in that just as an eye in finish against a non Saturday where Dayton hits the three, a Vila comes down hits a three and then scramble mode, tipping by the seven two guy where the guy in the bench runs on the cordon doesn't get tech somehow. But I like slow. I did just a better team and I like Josh Scherz. What more than I like Mike White. So give me slow. Slow. Um, Georgia. I like Georgia dogs. I like the dogs and I tell you why. Look, St. Louis hasn't been playing like St. Louis for a number of weeks. This club was a heck of a club. The Billekins the first half of the season. All of a sudden I ain't playing. I'm from down here in Athens. Georgia and I'm telling you the dogs are going to win this roggin. Give me the dogs. By the way, first time since George has been in back to back NCAA since 2001 and 2002. Who did they lose to last year in the tournament? I'll remember that. That was all Gonzaga. The first right. That's right. That's right. Gonzaga killed him in the eight nine game. That's right. Really? Would lean towards St. Louis. It makes me a little bit nervous that a lot of their games. St. Louis is three pointers and in the neutral venue unfamiliar shooting back drop that maybe isn't sustainable. But I defer to their offense here to get by Georgia. Well, surprise Georgia was as serious. How is there? What did they see? That surprised me a little bit. But I do think St. Louis advances. You guys are exactly right after that. No, they want to say. You said, yeah, you said you said you said you said you did too high on the bill. Posting the bill. The bill. The leakin oil boys. You're wrong on the bill. It's they have not played well. I agree. No, Todd, it's just more of fate at Georgia. I just don't think they're any good. And a lot of people are saying that I feel like I and that a view of guys injured their thing. Yeah, he's been looking around the tournament to me Friday in Tampa, number five Texas tech. No, JT top in Torne, ACL right. New February 17th for Zera's on a state. Christian Anderson is kind of iffy here. Number five Raiders red, text tech red Raiders. Seven and a half point favorites despite all that against number 12 Akron. The Mac champs. Um, the zippers with a three at the buzzer to win it for us. The zippers coming from 12 down. I sat next to a particular mediocre a dancer. He said the zippers can't do it. I said, give me the zippers. Here comes the zippers. Good. Thanks. I wanted. Wasn't the wasn't the zips game. The one that they ended on that great block. Wasn't that that game? No zippers. That's the Acron game. The Mac championship. They hit the three where they finally kept getting down. I don't want to sit. Then Toledo came down and missed the three at the buzzer. Oh, what was the game that would that great block right? State, maybe I'm like, Tuesday, right? That was right. That was early in the week. Yeah. I we watched about 5,000. That game was insane too because that was like a five point game in the ball. Like trickled out of bounds and went back. I forget who was trailing and it's like, Oh, no big deal. It's a five point game. Next he notes tied or about to be tied. That was a while. Then it is nothing. It really is nothing as great as like the way the whack championship ended the way the Ivy League championship. It was so great. This is as good of a kind of championship week as I can remember. It was just so good the whole week. Yeah. Seven or the half Jeff. Oh, I thought Tali was saying something there. I don't know how anyone. Two trendy and NBA. Oh, shot at the NBA. You know, you know, I, Gilly, I think Akron's two trendy. I'm taking Texas tech out. Right. I'm taking them out. Right. I just, McCaslin is such a good coach. And I think for one game, he can figure it out against the team that is very three point reliant. If Akron does not shoot well, they will lose if they shoot well, then the upset is very much alive. But I'll advance Texas tech. I want absolutely nothing to do with that seven and a half though. Tali wish to have. I think he already give us a hint what he's going with here. What do you got Todd? Well, here's the thing. The, I like the Texas tech team and I agree with Jeffrey. But I love their coach and everything. So this is a really tough one. I am going to, you know, begrudgingly put Texas tech through, but I, I circled the over over one 56 in this game. I think there could be a lot of points scored. Texas techs had a lot of points with a lot of games with a lot of points. These again, this is a situation where it's two teams I like. Unfortunately, going against each other like Wisconsin and Arkansas. So this is annoying for me, but Texas tech, I'll put them through. Willie, I'm going to do it. I'll take Akron. I know it's trendy, but I really saw Texas tech would fall off a map when topping got hurt. He's such a tremendous player draws attention, just affects so much of the defense. They've really played well without him, but a lot of that they are shooting the hell out of the three. I think that's a little bit unsustainable. Akron's, I think a little more athletic than people might think coming from the Mac. Give me Akron out right here. And I didn't realize this because they've been in the tournament. It seems like a lot the last 10, 15 plus years. They've been good in that conference. I don't think they've ever won an NCAA tournament game. So let's change that Akron to the round to 32 on Twitter. If rain, see new word learned, flash sedization. Thanks, wish. And then Buddhist man, our buddy, I know we're looking at taking these dogs in the first half as opposed to full game. But to me, a more interesting angle is going to be taking dogs first to 15. Oh, yeah, our favorite. Yeah. With these inflated full game spreads compared to years past, I'm hoping for a return to proper pricing on race to 15. This was a J Rude creation over at bed MGM. Now a lot of people do it. But if you ever hear the biggest screaming in a sports book is when you get to 15 and everybody's on the dog. And then they all switch their allegiance because the full game they went with the with the favorite typically, but people go nuts on the 15. They try to bring it to 10, but it doesn't work out as now. It's not as wide as well. I'll tell you what big big O crazy is not the first of 15. But it's the river sports book running a big promo down at the sports book. They have to buy the seats. Now I don't have to but you have to buy the seats and the food is borderline and edible. And I'm not a guy who says foods and edible. The food is terrible. Shout out. Shout out. I bet River sketching is straight. All right. Winter of Texas tech Akron, the 512 in Tampa on Friday in the Midwest takes on the winner of the 413 game in Tampa between Alabama and Hofstra. Alabama's a 13 point favorite. We alluded to Alabama earlier. Let's just sort of clarify a couple things. One eight and all away caught with over a pound of weed. I don't know that this gets adjudicated before this game. I'm not sure if he's absolutely play. He's absolutely right? No, no, he's white. It's weed. It's not already. Yeah. I happen. I'll speak first on Alabama because I happen to know Houston Millett very well. I've known him since he's a little kid. I'm good friends with his dad. And I even having a personal connection with this team have said all year long, this is three months ago. I said that I go, this team is such a foreseed. And they end up a foreseed. I'm not sure they deserve to be a foreseed. But I kept saying all year, they are a complete paper tiger. 91.7 points per game leads D one. They may get by this game. But I have no faith in them beyond this. Will we start with you? I'll take Hofstra plus the points. Don't have the guts to pick them outright. Even though I thought about it. And to me, look, they were number one in Ken Pomellus conference all year. There are two point defense is really good. And to me, Bama, if they just have a cold night from three, who know? So I think Hofstra can play well here and a little bit of a sentimental choice for me, just because I don't know if you guys remember this. Haven't been to the tournaments. I think 2000, 2001 with Jay Wright in 2006. They beat George Mason. They're one season head to head game. George Mason got the at large over them back with their in the same conference. Then in 2020 Hofstra finally wins the conference. Yeah, we're going to the tournament. The next day the world falls apart and they don't go to the tournament. So rooting for Hofstra here, maybe a little good karma. I do like them plus the points. How's that six years ago? By the way, six years ago, now world fell crazy. Todd Bama Hofstra. I hate Bama. I hate him with a passion, but I'm going to they're going to advance against Hofstra. But but you know what? I maybe I'll take first half Hofstra point spread, you know, with Willie, maybe, because I like what Willie said. Bama's year was last year when they had sears and Nelson. Holloway's great, by the way. Don't get me wrong. And obviously Phylon is Wright sell never quite became the guy. I thought he would be, but yeah, you sir. I'm going to do it. Pride outright. Wow. There we go. Hofstra. I just look, this is more likely than not going to go horribly wrong for me. But good guard play. Willie pointed it out to top 25, two point defense and Ken Pome, which doesn't really help you against Alabama. I understand that, but they're still good defensively against against the three and are top 33 point shooting team. So to me, you have all the pieces here and Alabama, can we just talk about what Alabama did this week. Please. Alabama lost to Ole Miss and put us in a situation where, yes, I know Arkansas needed over time to be Ole Miss and Assemi's, but we were very, very close to having an SEC team that was three games under 500 in the conference title game in part because of how poorly Bama played against them. They are a huge paper tiger. You're right. Last year and the year before, remember, they weren't a final 40 year before and they lost to Yukon and they were in that game for a good chunk of it. So I think the regression and look, this is bound to go wrong. Bamaka very easily, lend by 20, but I'm taking Hofstra outright and then boy, what a gift for Texas Tech that would be in my bracket if Hofstra does win. And Texas Tech gets to go 12, 13 seed and get like an easy cakewalk to the sweet 16. Yeah. I feel the same way about Alabama, but I'm not going that far. Speedy clacks in the coach of Hofstra. Yeah. Great, a great college player and a solid NBA player. Friday and Philly, number six Tennessee against the winner of the play in game. We're all waiting for on Wednesday night Miami of Ohio and SM USMU. Actually the last team in the last at large Keith Gildey selection chair clarified that was Seth Davis yesterday. Will I know you have a play on the SMU Miami game? Right? SMU favor by a touchdown. Yeah. I was shocked. I did a spaces right after the show and I was texting you guys. Instant reactions. I was shocked. This was nine and then a minute later, it's 10. I think cooler heads have prevailed. We're around like six and a half or seven. I still think it's too many points. A quasi home game of a situation where Miami Ohio can play the disrespect angle. Plus, you know, Miami Ohio, they are just not on this level in terms of like defending the rim and around the glass. But that's not something SM US going to really expose. I think this game goes down to the wire. I think more of a coin slip game. I wouldn't be shocked if Miami of Ohio wins, which would make whoever, you know, that next game that would make a lot of fun on the weekend. But I think that's too many points and I'll take Miami of Ohio to pull the upset. You won't immediately advance Tennessee? You're not sure. Oh, Tennessee would be them. Yes. Okay. Tell them on the glass. I think SMU beats Miami Ohio. Although I think Miami Ohio, it's good for them that they lost that game in the tournament because I think now they're going to come in without that gigantic thing on their shoulders. It felt like the last couple games of the year. They were just, you know, leaking oil because of all this pressure over the undefeated season. And now they finally lose the game. So that kind of, you know, the pressure recedes on that. I think they'll play better, but I still think SMU is good enough to beat them. I don't have an opinion on the spread on that. And I'll take Tennessee to beat SMU and advance Tennessee. Orlay. Miami action. I think Miami is going to be SMU because SMU is best player by not playing this game. So that's another angle of this. And then Tennessee will whack whoever they are, whoever they get. SMU is really not any good. I actually wouldn't have minded if they put Oklahoma in, as opposed to SMU. I wouldn't have minded that. And Tennessee, it would think something really special from Rick Barnes to lose the either of these teams. And I just don't think that will happen. Even Rick Barnes will not be capable. Yeah. Do you remember this many injuries heading into a dance like this? Seems like a lot. Does seem like a lot of players. I think we're just more hyper aware than ever. We're going to be winner of Tennessee and whoever wins the play in between Miami and SMU. We'll take on a winner of the 314 game in Philly on Sunday. This game is on Friday between Virginia and Wright State. Virginia's the three seed. They are 18 point favorites against Wright State. Virginia, Virginia, 14 win improvement in Ryan Odom's first year as head coach. So is Virginia like the most not talked about nearly 30 win team ever? 29 and 29. Like they want 20 that games. They're in a real conference and no one has said a word about them all year. It's very true. Very bizarre. And, you know, I just will say this, I am so happy to Ryan Odom is there and nothing, no one to do with Bennett is there anymore. Because I know you'll have a different take than me on this skill. It's a shame, Bennett won at 2019 title because the way he is perceived because they won that title is way different than he should be perceived. Because the way he left Virginia was disgraceful, he tried to hand that job, the Ron Sanchez who should not have be a power five coach. But does everybody kind of know, but it's still I don't, I don't need to like it though. You know, so, but Odom is a great coach. Deritter is a really good player. And I think they're going to win this game comfortably. That's a lot of points against a right state team that is relatively good for a small may take conference. But Virginia could be like the quietest elite A team ever. So if they end up getting there, it's a great point about Virginia being a quiet 29 win team. You're right. I will just I agree with what you're saying about Tony Bennett, but that 2019 team, because you and I were together. Yeah. Yeah. That 2019 team. Of course, a year before they got knocked out by UMBC is a one's first one seat to lose to a 16. So that was that and they had to live with that for a year. And then I've always maintained this Jeff that run to the championship. We all we use this phrase in sports as a cliche team of destiny. Oh, yeah. If there was ever a team of destiny, it was that team because not only because of the 16 seat upset the year before, but the way they what those games against Auburn and Purdue. And then even the championship right against Texas down three with 15 seconds. And same. Yeah. Very crazy run. Yeah. Crazy run. But I like I there. This seems good. And they're under the radar, which is actually not a bad spot to be totally under the radar. Tady. I like Virginia to right state played a little team down there and moon patch up. Corey, off this area right near the airport. If you in this gun down there, it's called Robert Morris. The ends of her daughter, Robert Morris. Well, guess what? Robert Morris kicked his teams ass twice, both on the road and at home. The weather we're eating through the remaining sandwiches at home where they were going to road either way, it didn't matter. Robert Morris kicked their ass. I don't think right states any good California beat him. Pretty good. Bokker beat him. You ever heard of Bokker? Bokker is a team that beat him. I like right state too much. Give me the Virginia wall. Who's Willie? Right state right around 200 in defensive efficiency. Not enough defense here to flirt with an upset Virginia. It's going to score too much win when lean towards them covering as well. If I had to bet anything here, probably Virginia team total over. And like you guys mentioned, not your not your older brothers, Virginia team, they can score. They play a little pace. I think Virginia moves on. Oh, I like that. All right. Willie Virginia team total. Oh, that's not a problem. Thank you. 82. All right. Last two brackets. We got a heart out here in 10 minutes. Last two brackets. St. Louis Jeff. Seven seed Kentucky. Four point favorites. This has been bouncing around all morning, by the way. It's three and a half. Got to four and a half. Some I think circa even posted a five. Now it was back at four before this show started. Kentucky. A four point favorite over number 10. Santa Clara. Who's the third team out of the West Coast Conference averaging 9.2 more field goal attempts per game than their opponents. Third best differential in D one. Kentucky wins. Covers. Not buying Santa Clara. Wow. God made to greed. Kentucky will. Yeah. Kentucky believe it or not. Top 10 in the country before the season. They were ranked. I think night to start the year. I lean towards Santa Clara with the points. The committee didn't do that many favors. Nine a.m. Body clock. A Stevie. Steve Fesick special. So I'm sure that will factor into his handicapping. Lean towards Santa Clara. I just think. A lot of bias here just in terms of reputation in terms of the program. Santa Clara hasn't been there in 30 years. So Santa Clara. Plus the points would lean towards them winning, but don't feel great about it. Winner of that 710 plays the winner of this final bracket and the whole thing. Two seed Iowa state 15 seed Tennessee state. Iowa state with Milan mom chillovich 49.6% from three. Highest in D one. Best in the big 12 since 2007 Iowa states can pop number six. They're 24 and a half point favorites. How about Nolan Smith gets the job so late at Tennessee state and gets them to the tournament for the first time in a long time. Amazing coaching job there. It will end in this game. Iowa state wins. And has a lot of points though. And I just wonder how interested Iowa state will be, especially if Kentucky beat Santa Clara. Because I think if we get Kentucky Iowa state, that could be as good of a game as we see in around a 32. Totti. They only played Tennessee as number 16 lost 89 60 and played number 69. Belmont lost 87 79. Those are the only top 100 teams they played all year. Iowa state obviously. I don't know if they can cover the spread, but you know, that's obvious. All right, will close. Yeah, Iowa state's going to win. I don't like their free throws enough for them to lay a big number. They're going to leave points on the board to drive you nuts, but a pass for me in terms of the spread. All right, before we give our elite eight picks, let me just go through a bunch of stuff that people love here and this kind of stuff. Take it for what it's worth. All four number one seeds reach the final four just twice 2008. And last year, Auburn, Florida, Duke and Houston, will that happen again? We'll find out what these guys pick momentarily. A two seed hasn't reached a title game since 2016. A five seed, the highest seed never to win. First four teams have reached the final four twice. BCU in 2011 UCLA 2021. The high high gas team. Shock a smart with that BCU team. digit seed has made the final four and four of the last nine tournaments. I bet you it's four out of 10 here. A one seed has won the title seven of the last eight NCAA tournaments. At least one one seed has reached the final four and 10 of the last 11 tournaments. The one where it didn't happen. The famous Florida Atlantic year in 2023. San Diego State, five seed, Florida Atlantic and I'd seed Miami, a five seed, you can't afford seed in 2023. The AP number one at the end of the regular season won the tournament three times only since 2000. Duke is that this year, 24 Yukon, 12 2012 Kentucky, 2001 Duke. Top four seed is lost in the first round 15 of the last 17 tournaments. Not last year, though, none of the top four seeds laws. And at least this is my favorite one and at least one double digit seed has reached the sweet 16 since 2008. Remember last year we barely survived with 10 seeded Arkansas. Um, okay. Let's do it. Jeff, you have your honors, your honor. Elite, your elite eight. Do you want the winners of the, of the elite eight kill? Let's, let's do a lead eight final four, two and one. Alright, so elite eight east Duke over Connecticut. I'm just going chalk. Mostly because I have Michigan State losing to South Florida and they round to 32. So that's why I have Duke over Yukon chalk again in the South, but this time the two seeded Houston Cougars beat the one seed Florida Gators. I just can't get there with Florida. Well, we just saw this past week for them scares me because they just forgot out of play against good teams last week. Then we have in the West four seeded Arkansas against three seeded Gonzaga. We picked Sui on to the final four for, as I said, the best player in the tournament. There is a couple get there. And then I have number one seeded Michigan over seven seeded Kentucky in the Midwest. I just, I don't fully buy Iowa State. I don't know why the metric say they're awesome. They played arguably the best game in the year against Arizona on Friday. But I this, this cat team has so much talent. It wouldn't shock me either if they lose the Santa Clara or if they put it together for four games and then just run out of gas against Michigan. So my final four is Duke against Houston. Arkansas against Michigan. Gil. Want me to finish it off here? Yep. Duke over Arkansas in the championship. Go over Arkansas. All right. My elite eight. Duke and Yukon in the East Florida and Houston in the South Arizona and Gonzaga out West Michigan and Iowa State Midwest and to continue with the chalkiness. One, one, one and one for young Gilly. There are no more go Duke Florida, Arizona Michigan. It's going to happen two years in a row. Florida is going to be Arizona and the national championship and Todd Golden is going to have his back to back after Dan Hurley has his back to back. I don't think they cared in the SEC tournament. Very possible. At all. Who were we saving for last? We're going to save Todd for last. Willie who had FAU in the final four in 2023. Willie, what do you got? Arizona over Gonzaga in the elite eight Michigan over Iowa State. Florida over Illinois. And then I apologize for all the chalk. My one sort of curveball. I have a big East final rematch. St. John's in Yukon in the East with Yukon advancing to the final four with the other three one seeds and then Arizona beating Florida. I think Arizona starting to quietly talk about, hey, we got to shoot a few more threes. They can win so many ways. I think for a team of their record, it's unusual to see a team that is actually being slept on and to kind of under maybe appreciated. Michigan was the best team for the longest this year. Duke was the best team recently. Florida was the flavor of the month. I just don't know if Arizona is maybe they're hiding in plain slight in plain sight here just because Lloyd has had so many trip ups in the tournament. The Princeton loss. But to me, Arizona, the best team, the most complete team. I tried to have a little more fun, be a little different, but I just ended up with three ones and a two. Let me ask you this before we get to Todd. Do you hate yourself as much as I hate myself for having Arizona going as far as I always hate myself? But yes, especially more today with with all the chalk. It's just it takes the fun out of it. But you know, at some point you're just doing it just to do it. If you're picking up sets into me, we've talked all year. It's chalky. It feels chalky. Todd wish that. Okay. Which region should I do first? Do the east south western Midwest, the order we did east. I have the jatties, the red storm beats Duke so they can go up against Michigan state and it's say jads Michigan state of the elite eight. And then we go lower down to Florida, playing the align. I Florida getting past Mandy to go against the align. I in the other eight elite eight side. Then on the other side, we have the whiskey badgers beating Arizona in the sweet 16. So we got whiskey in the elite eight against the NC state of both pack who knock off Miami because Miami beat Purdue. So it's NC state Miami in that side of it. And so it's whiskey NC state in the elite eight in that region. And you're looking. Wow. You're looking politically. And like you're starting. What? So let's just let's just on the air. So you have. Oh, so let's try to a German. You have St. John's and Michigan state in the first elite eight. Yes. Okay. Then you have you have floor and a lion eye, the lion eye. And your other. Okay. And then on the other side, we have with the last one with Ian and see state. Wow. NC state is a batch. And what is that? And what is that going to lose to NC state? NC state could be Gonzaga. Gonzaga is not good anymore. NC state. And then Miami is going to knock off Purdue. That's my bracket where everything went haywire. And so I have NC state playing Wisconsin in the final eight to go to the final four. Okay. And then you got a mission in the bottom. Yeah. You got Michigan. Michigan moves through beats Texas tech to go through. And then I have Virginia beating Iowa state. So Virginia gets to play Michigan in the final eight elite eight. I believe they call it. Then we go to the final four. You got Tom is though against Ricky Patino to go to the final four. And it's Tom is though. Tom is though goes to the final four. The Michigan state Spartans against Florida who I freaking love. And the other side, the whiskey badgers that cheeseheads are going to the final four. And on the bottom, we're going to have Michigan at beaten Virginia going to the final four. Now we go to the final part. Whiskey playing Michigan. And whiskey pulls the upset again. Whiskey's in the final game with the keys heads. And on the other side, it's Michigan state against Florida and Florida with their outstanding defense and chin yolo. And it's Florida against the majors in the championship game. And the gators trump the majors. It's the Florida gators win it all. Wow. How about how about Todd and I having the same pod up in the West with two different teams that Portland pod with Arkansas and Wisconsin. I have Arkansas on the title game. Todd's got whiskey. How about that? Todd. If I believe before we leave, you know what I'm about to say. Oh, I'm definitely going to because your bracket. I'm fighting a thing is a little off kilter. But I don't please enter brackets. So I don't have to brackets. I don't think it's that off kilter. I think there can be a lot of upsets in these in the six, sweet 16 round. And the final eight, a lot of these teams are not that different. I mean, Michigan was playing with cons and it was almost over time the other day. Yeah. Well, NC state is off kilter, but you're right. I mean, there's a state. There's a lot of combinations. There's no, what happens when Texas beats NC state or what happens with that? That would be awkward. That would be a problem. Yeah. Yep. Problem. All right. Todd, please enter nationwide or global online. And blogging pools. Bleat. I don't want to have to talk you off a ledge. No. Come, you know, two weeks from gentlemen. Thank you. This is always one of the most fun podcasts of the year. Todd wish to have at T wish. The discord is open for business or not open for business. Open for business. Yeah, it's open. There's a lot of people. Yeah. Yeah. The author of the greatest sports betting season I've ever seen period. And I don't care what people say they can, you know what? Because people, some people don't believe it. They don't believe it. People we know. Maybe if they want to bet, if they want to bet me 100,000 that I can't produce every ticket that was put on the discord, I would be happy to do it. He said every play on the discord, he can produce them all. Will Hill, host of the should have bet more podcasts at not the will hill on Twitter. Next edition is when will Wednesday. Got one up today. Got a Wednesday. So Monday, Wednesday, Friday, when they come out. All right. And Jeffrey Parley at Jeff Parles, P-A-R-L-E-S on Twitter working here in Las Vegas. What's the call letters again? Yes, PN Las Vegas. He's waiting to do it for people outside the market. ESPN Las Vegas. Jeffrey, thank you for in here as well. Uh, best week of the year. Jeffrey parles and Jeffrey parles will be crying about them as who tigers. I, I want to pick my, but I'm betting Miami, though, how much can I cry? He seems to be realist. Um, enjoy all the games. Uh, and G, of course, the numbers game, seven to 10 Pacific, 10 to one Eastern on V sin Monday through Friday morning, will be a guest on Wednesday, Todd is a guest tomorrow on the show before he takes off for Pittsburgh. And of course, uh, Stevie Fesick will actually be earlier on Friday this week so we can get it before the games. Uh, but we'll get everybody on there. Thanks for listening. Good luck with all your bets. March, Madden is 20, 20, six.