Oh, a wise guy, eh? He sure is. He's Jean McCaffrey, the wise guy of Fantasy Baseball. And he'll be here to talk about offbeat Fantasy Baseball auction strategies and a whole lot more. Next on Baseball HQ Radio. Learn to play the winners way, because Baseball HQ Radio starts right now. [MUSIC PLAYING] And here's your host from Baseball HQ.com. Call him is Patrick Davitt. [MUSIC PLAYING] And welcome to Baseball HQ Radio for Tuesday, March the 3rd. It's show number four of the 2026 Fantasy Baseball season. I am Patrick Davitt, your host, and we do have another great Tuesday-tout edition for you. It's a two-part feature expert interview with Jean McCaffrey, the wise guy of Fantasy Baseball. In part one, I'll ask Jean about spring training in the world baseball classic and what he thinks about both. About this year's draft trends and about drafting pictures like Garrett Crochet, Zach Wheeler, Garrett Cole, and Cody Ponds, and hitters like Labor Torres, Alec Bohn, Jake Berger, and Marcus Semyon. Then in part two, I'll talk with Jean about auction theory, including unusual auction strategies he's seen and tried over the years. Plus, he'll have a bushel basket of boobs and veins. And he'll tell us about the time he got flattened on the field at Shay Stadium by Ted Kluzowski. It's another big Tuesday-tout edition. Thanks for joining us at Baseball HQ Radio. Hey, what do you say? The wise guy is in the house. We've got to talk some Fantasy Baseball. [MUSIC PLAYING] And in the first inning of this Tuesday-tout edition, it's part one of our future expert interview with Jean McCaffrey, the wise guy of Fantasy Baseball. Jean, welcome back to Baseball HQ Radio. It's been a while. Jean McCaffrey, welcome back to the show. Gosh, it seems like forever. It's about true. Yeah, it's been a while. And good to be here, though. 2026, babe. You were telling me before the mic went live that you have turned your TV off since the World Series. And I haven't just now turned it back on. Yeah, that's true. I do that every year. I don't watch television. I mean, if there's anything that I need to see, I can see it somewhere on the internet. But I mean, I haven't watched television for a dog's age. And why? I mean, it's just a complete waste of time. I've got to read. I've got to play bridge. I'd rather play music. I'd rather do all kinds of things, hang out with my family. So I've got no lack of things to do. And television to me is a complete waste of time. And of course, at this time of year, I imagine you must be pretty busy looking at baseball, looking at the players, that kind of stuff. Well, I haven't really turned it back on yet. I mean, I don't-- my spring training outlook at this time of the year is I'm just seeing who's healthy. I don't really care very much about performance yet. They're not facing me. To leaders, they're not. As we go on, I'll put on a few games. And I'll watch the World Baseball Classic, I think. Has it started yet? Or has it started today? Or something like that? I think it's-- I'll start on Friday. Oh, OK. Yeah. Well, that's good. That gives me time to see if I'm allowed to watch it on my television when I'm paying $100, which is a factor these days. I mean, the package that I get, I cannot watch the Rockies, because I'm in Colorado. Right. Which, to me, is insane. But I'll pay you the extra $10 or whatever it is, probably $100. I don't understand that. But in any case, I get to watch all the other games and growing up as we did when I grew up at the Mexican Yankees in the game of the week. So I was beside myself when I realized that I could watch Atlanta Braves and Chicago Cubs games. So it was a bananza to have direct TV and to be able to watch all the games. So I'm not really complaining. I can still watch eight games at a time, but I watch it. And my wife says I'm ruined baseball for the rest of my family, which is probably true. But hey, it's the price you got to pay, right? It is indeed. I was going to say that given the expectations of the Rockies this year, they ought to be paying you. Absolutely. I mean, although I do think they're going to be a little bit better this year. There are some-- not to have a fan of them on anything, but there do seem to be a few pillars that might, might, actually, be interested, be interesting. And of course, they have no pitching. Right. That's part of the course. You mentioned the World Baseball Classic. You also said that you're only interested in sort of health-related stories in spring training. Are you any more interested in the World Baseball Classic given that it is at least somewhat competitive? Yes, I am. And I look for people who show me something new. Players I haven't heard of. I mean, that's more of the future because most of them are this year's guys. I mean, I'm interested in people who are-- if anybody's coming back from an injury, which I'm not going to be too many of them. But I'm interested in, you know, if a picture's got a new pitch or if a hitter looks particularly good against the tougher competition, then yeah, I will take note. And I might elevate or generate a little bit based on that. We have a few new Japanese players. And I think maybe one Korean player this year in Major League Baseball. And I'm wondering if we're going to get a chance to see those guys against Major League pitching when they're playing for Japan. But I don't know if all of them are playing for Japan. The players who came over this year knew because I'd be really curious. There's a new guy in Toronto. There's another one with the White Talks. And there's a huge range of opinion on how we should value these guys in the projections, looking forward to the season. Do you think that the world baseball classic is going to be any help in figuring that sort of thing out and how desirable these guys are? No, it might be a little bit. I mean, it's always dangerous to judge on few play the appearances. But you can see the way a guy's approach, if he's not a good approach, maybe if he can cover-- or if he can't cover a particular part of a plate, that sort of thing I'm going to be watching. I found that for hitters, the projections coming over from Japan, anyway, looked like they're pretty good. I mean, they're in the ballpark. What the guys actually do, for the most part, I found. So yeah, I'm going to be watching those two guys. It looks like the guy in the White Talks has a job. So that makes him draft the ball of the playgrounds. And then the blue-jays guy probably has a job, if I'm reading that correctly. So yes, I am interested in looking at those guys. And either one is going to be a linchpin of my team, but they could be an asset down the road in the late rounds. I was just looking it up. And the one guy's called Moonataka Murakami. And the other guy's Kazuma Okamado and one of them's in Toronto, and the other one's in the White Talks. And apparently, they are both going to be playing in the World Baseball Classic. And Japan takes it pretty seriously. They're two-time defending champions, so they're not going out there to mess around. I think it might be worthwhile to see how they fare against the tougher players. In the case of the Toronto guy-- and I should know which is which, but I just don't-- but they want to play him at third. He's normally a first baseman, but Guerrero's got that sewn up, and they don't want Guerrero playing third. So they're thinking about sticking him at third, but the worry is that he can't handle it defensively. So I'm very curious to see if the Japanese team plays him at third. And if so, how he looks doing that, because if he can't handle third, reliably, then Toronto's facing a bit of a positional squeeze, because then they got to start moving guys around, and you get your Ernie Clemens and stuff more in there. But I don't know that he can play outfield either. So they may find a little bit more difficult than they were hoping to get this guy onto the field in a defensive role. What formats of fantasy baseball will you be playing this season, Gene? Well, I've only done one draft so far, which is a draft to champions. I'm in the TGFBI, whatever that's called now. I'm going to do two Roto-Yer championships with my partner in Bestie Joplin Mele. And then I probably also going to do a cut line bestball format since I've been doing well with that. As you've been drafting, and as you've been watching, other drafts, have you noticed any trends or other aspects that have interested you? [BLANK_AUDIO]
More, everything is a continuation of trends that existed before. Pictures pitching less, the catcher pool, which was very strong last year, is depending on the need to draw over this year. And then one other thing I noticed when I was going through my bains for you, I noticed that, and maybe this is just me, but there were very few guys that I really do not like. There are a lot more players that I do like, and with good reasons as far as I can see, and very few players that I, it's all relative in my bains. There's a very few, I was like, no, I don't want any part of that guy. And it's a whether that's a friend or not, or just a group of these years, which I suspect. I'll see, because it never comes out the way we envision it before the season. We have our rankings and people, the public drafts very predictably and the aggregate, although not any particular draft. But it never works out. The draft rankings are always wrong. So whether that's just a fluke of the shoe, which I think it is, or there's just a lot of players to like this year, not that many players to dislike, and those that I do dislike, it's more a question of just liking them, rather than players, rather than the actual one. How do you see a pitcher, starting pitchers in particular going this year after a seemingly climbing trend that leveled off last year for a certain extent? You had your big three going in the top sort of 16, 17 spots. And then there was like nobody drafted until the fourth round. And is it, is it the same this year? It looks like that, looks that way to me. And if there is a question, I just drafted Derek Roche, ninth in my TGFBI. And I really wasn't, I didn't really look forward to doing that. I was hoping I was going to get a cune, but I did not, and I didn't really expect to do it. But then to me, the other hitters around there are not what I consider to be true first rounders. Their guys certainly could put up first round seasons. But not guys who are predictably going to be five category or top four category guys. So I figured, Roche is one of those guys who has four categories. And so I'm going to take him with the chips fall and then take a comparable hitter to the first round guys at the second round. So it took a career there. And this latter bit by one pick, he almost came back to me in the second round. Wow. That's shocked me. It is a bit surprising given the support he gives you in batting average. And everything else except home runs. And this is another year where you got a sort of news versus noise thing. But he's been posting pictures of his newly saveled frame and how much weightlifting he's been doing. Of course, you never know if that helps or hurts because there's been anecdotal stories over the years of ball players who bulk up with the with the weights and all of a sudden can't do anything that they used to because they lose flexibility. I think that's interesting. So I believe that a top starting pitcher is fairly analogous to a top hitter as long as the top hitter doesn't get steals because basically a top starting pitcher and a top hitter without steals are both four category contributors. Am I on the right track here? Oh yeah, even more so because the because the pitchers are nine slots and the hitters are 14. And we talk about starting pitchers is really seven spots for their four categories. So structurally, he's worth not quite double. But there is now course it doesn't work out that way in real life. I mean, if you get 60 home runs from a roster slot, that's a lot more than one 14th of your production in that category. But in general, the pitchers are worth more than the hitters. They just have to be good and stay healthy and they are, you know, they traditionally didn't risk here. Everybody knows that. I've always been a guy who took pitching seriously and tried to draft a balanced team including starting pitchers. They're usually on in these contests where I'm playing for an overall prize. And in those kind of games, you have to be balanced. You have to be balanced at a very high level. And so I don't mess around and say, well, let me see if I can finance my pitching by waiting too long to get pitchers. I mean, I was sometimes getting his ace. I'm getting my third or fourth pitcher and that's fine with me. That's the way I like it. And speaking of stolen bases, there are various different approaches. How to do it? What do you think is the smartest way to try to draft your stolen bases this season? Well, you know, again, it depends on what kind of league you're in and whether it's a local league, whether you're for an overall prize. In general, there were 46 players last year who stole 20 or more bases. And there were another 24 who stole 15 to 19 bases. So there are plenty of steals out there. The question is, how do you want to allocate the measure going along in the draft? Now this year, I'm playing a kind of risky strategy with stolen bases is that I'm putting my, if I get a kune in the first round, I'm putting my stolen bases into pretty risky baskets in the pursuit of power wherever I can get it. Because I love homebugs. Homebugs are four categories of events I want as many as I can. Also, every single year, you'll look between seven and ten of the top 25 stolen base players are guys who were late drafted or not drafted. So bearing that in mind, I think it's really important to get the guys at the end of the draft who are going to really impact that stolen base category and playing for a big overall prize. And I'm putting a lot of, a lot of my drafts capital in and to give you an example, I love Justin Crawford on the, on the Phillies. People say he's not going to be a full-time player. They say he's going to bat ninth and I say fine, but he can actually hit. He seems very similar profile to Crawford. And Crawford was the first round player or the second round player for a lot of his career. So I think, and also, batting ninth is never great, but batting ninth on the Phillies is not so bad because he's got a ton of RBI bats right behind him, so to speak. For them more, if anybody gets hurt, then he moves up in the lineup. And then I just saw that Rojas was suspended from the world class. If there was going to be a platoon, that was a monkey range into that. But I don't think Crawford's going to have any trouble with left hand with pitching. And so I think that he's going to be a really key guy. And then as reserve picks, the nasa nunyans guy on Washington has a really good chance to take over a second base, particularly on that team. And even a guy like Luis Angel Acunia, who looks like he's going to play as Wayne Hips and Conor McEuse and I certainly think you should take him as a reserve pick because I like that could be very impactful. And then the other guy who I really like, not a really super late round guy, is Dale and Miles, also on the Nats, who looks to me like a really good hitter and he's blazing fast. So I'm going to really put my stolen base egg. It's a lot of that kind of few guys things and then max out of home runs and see if that works. And then it's a really smart strategy for people to use in their local leagues and their local leagues. I would try to spread the risk and get a bunch of, you know, 15 to 25 guys and do it that way. When you were talking about Crawford being in the nine slot, it popped into my head that you might be better off with a guy who's in the nine slot for the Phillies than who's in the six slot for Colorado because Philadelphia figures to turn the lineup over way more often. And so that that 20 played appearance penalty per roster slot is not as severe in a team that is really offensively efficient and gets back to that nine slot more often and gets back to the lead off slot more often. Absolutely. It applies even more so to the Dodgers. I mean, I was on this last year and as a result, they drafted Tony Edgum on a bunch of places didn't work out but only because it was heard. If the Dodgers do have a way
regular number nine hitter and I think that's worth watching in the spring. That guy is worth more than that he may appear to. He's going to beat his runs projections. In other words, that's what I'm saying. You're listening to baseball H. Curator Patrick David here with our guest expert, Gene McCaffrey, the wise guy of fantasy baseball and Gene. Let's get back into it talking about some pitching. We've kind of touched on this earlier, but we have scubaal schemes and crochet all going in round one in NFPC drafts by ADP. What do you think of this? Well, as I say, I think it's a very reasonable way to go about doing it. I mean, you have to get you've got to get a lot of pitching and that, you know, the ties you're going to put up the quantity and the quality are worth their weight in gold as long as they deliver. And I think that, I mean, to me, those top three guys are really peas in the pod. And I think that crochet, if anything, was a little unlucky last year. And I think he belongs in that class with those guys and he may have a little quantity at job. I think he certainly has a quantity at your own schemes, but of course, skiing is great. And of course, scuba is great. So yes, I think it's a very sensible way to go about doing it if you don't. If you don't have any alternatives, let's put it that way. I mean, the hitters are still safer. Let's, you know, let's be realistic. There are chances of getting hurt while far from zero or less than with any pitcher. Yeah, I agree with that. Now, when it comes to schemes in crochet, when I was looking at these two guys, I thought, well, crochet, I think is an elevated injury risk versus schemes. There's an age thing. And then there's an injury history thing with crochet. But on the other hand, crochet has got the team context advantage because Boston figures to be a better team than Pittsburgh, although I think Pittsburgh is going to be improved based on the last few years. But how would you balance schemes versus crochet on the team context versus injury risk? It's a backroom. I think it washes out because schemes get a little ballpark edge over crochet. I agree that the pilots are better, but I agree that the rest of those are still better than pilots. So as I say, to me, they're peas in the pod. And I wouldn't, of course, we know it's not going to really work out that way. But one of these years, it might, you know, that they know that they are one, two, three. As, you know, as the reasonable expectation is that they're going to be one, two, three. And while that never tends to, never seems to work out, one of these years it will work out. And I still think you have to put your money where your mouth is on those three guys because on paper, they are the top three guys. And I would put in, Yamamoto in that also except the using it, pitching in a six-man rotation. That knocks them down. In those ADPs, Shane McLeanahan is going in the 15th, but according to some dollar value projections I've seen, they average out around the sixth round. So it looks like Shane McLeanahan could be a bargain. Are you interested in Shane McLeanahan? And if so, after the sixth round, when would you start thinking about making your pick on him? Well, I want to see him pitching in games in the spring. And once I see that, I'm going to tell me that I would take him to the sixth round. I don't know if I'm going to have to, but I mean, that's very long. And you know, we knew what he was like when he was, when he was, before he was hurt. So I don't have any problem with that as long as he's on the field. I mean, I tend to draft a high risk team, but the guy's, it's playing time is the risk with the guys that I take. But when you do that, the other side of it is you can't really take anybody who's starting on the disabled list. So they've got to be healthy going in because there I already had enough injury risk. I'm not going to take anybody's useless to me for a month or more. Well, I was going to ask you about Zach Wheeler. There was bound to be an injury discount after his thoracic outlet surgery in the off season. He's going in the eighth round, but he should be going a lot earlier. If you believe that Philadelphia manager Rob Thompson was being candid when he said Wheeler's on a schedule that could bring him back early to mid April, which is a month and a half or more earlier than anyone thought based on historical precedence from that surgery. Are you just out on Zach Wheeler if he's going before the eighth? Not if I heard not once I heard that. I mean, I was out on them before that. But once I heard that, he's back up. And as long as the news continues to be good, he's going to keep on rising. Of course, he should. One thing you know about Wheeler is that if he can't pitch, he will pitch. And he will pitch a lot. And he will pitch well. And also the type of thoracic outlet surgery that he had apparently there's two different kinds. And he had the kind of those less serious, but that surgery has ended careers before. But he seems to be okay with it. It was the rest of them. So no, I'm not out on him in fact. I mean, I'm in the question is just how high do I want to take them? And then you get into what you called earlier a game of chicken with all the rest of the people in your draft. And if he gets past somewhere where you think he's reasonable, I think you got to jump at the first chance you get. But I guess you got to read the room too. If everybody right around you already has three starting pictures, they may be want to pick up some hitting and those kinds of things. But in general, I don't know how much I trust when the manager says, Hey, if all goes well, this guy's going to be back in mid-April. Because I've heard it too many times before and all doesn't go well. And he ends up coming back in June. Yeah, well, you're right. But you're taking a chance. Let me put it to you this way. If I can get a shot, we'll learn without any bad news as my third best pitcher, I think I have to do that. Yeah. I'm like the chips fall where they bet. Yank, he's right, Hander Garrett Cole, also not going to start the year in the active rotation. He's going in the 18th round, but he still has a dollar projection based on his late start in the 12th to 13th round. Where are you going to be interested in Garrett Cole, if at all? As a reserve. I'm not so I'm not going to get up. I mean, someone's going to draft and find go ahead. They say, I'm not taking any chances on somebody who I know was going to miss a couple of months. And I just can't spare that loss to slot. Different sort of reasoning, Toronto right-hander Cody Ponce is almost in exactly the same position as Cole within a few picks an ADP 18th round and 13th round value by projection. And some projections have him higher than that. How interested are you in Korean returnees in general and Cody Ponce in particular? Yeah, I'm definitely interested. I'm also not going to reach for any of them. I'm going to let them fall. I mean, it's not that like there's any lack of alternatives that I feel more secure in any particular point of the draft and draft. So I'm not really looking to bet on the quality of a player when there's a player who I know or I know has upside anyway. For, you know, a Logan Henderson or somebody like that who's going late also, I think has a much lower risk of being bad than Ponce or the true Anderson on the Tigers, I think, started out pitching well in the spring. He's also coming back from there. And apparently he has a velocity, which is great. And yes, I'm interested, but I'm just not interested at a point where at a make or break point in my draft. There's a speculation trick. Looking at a couple of hitters that caught my eye when I was looking at these ADPs, Luis Arise now in San Francisco and now probably going to play second, which is a question onto itself, but he has a projected dollar value around the eighth round. But drafters are getting him at an ADP in the 19th. Why do you think this is and is it an opportunity? No, I think that's about where he belongs, although it depends on your team construction. He's the sort of, you know, if you've got a lot of power and you've got a lot of speed, then he makes great sense there because he is a, you know, batting hybrid building block. But he's not a, you know, he's not a great category player, despite the fact that you know that he's going to hit basically 300. So I mean, to me, he's like Jeff McNeil used to be and being even be this year. And I think that's about right. I think the market's right on it.
We're always looking for catchers, although the pool, as you said, is deeper this year than in years past. But Ryan Jeffers of Minnesota is going in the 21st round by ADP, and that's a good solid 12 rounds after his projected dollar value. How do you like Ryan Jeffers, especially with the 12 round discount? And how much before that 21st round might you be interested? Definitely, I'm interested because I think he's going to play more. He'd been doing like a split time thing in the last couple of years, which I really couldn't. I didn't really understand why that was. But if he's as a fallback number two catcher, I'd be delighted to have him. And it just goes to show again the depth of the position where I like that available on the 21st round. I'm not going to reach for less secure guys, but he looks pretty secure to me, and you'll right? I think so. And finally, Gene, there are four veteran infielders, Labor Torres Inditroid, Alec Bome, Philadelphia, Jake Berger, and Texas, and Marcus Semi-informally of Texas now with the Mets. They're all kind of 10th, 11th round by dollar value. This is where the dollar value is really start to compress in the ADPs anyway. And right now they're all going six round, seven rounds later than their value is how do you like any of these players given the possible discounts? I especially like Bome because I think he has an average best year yet being bad and clean for the Phillies. And see, I mean, he has already established that he's at least going to hit for average with decent power. But I mean, Zorby eyes are there for sure. I like the fact that he's been shooting the ball in the air more and capable of, you know, a 20 plus home run season. I also like Torres and Berger. And I might like Semi and Jewel at that kind of discount. The possibility exists that finally his run is ending. And it's a live possibility, and that's why he's so far down. And I think that's what the block is telling us. But if I can get block to Semi and it's my late middle infield, they're absolutely. Again, good lineup and he's probably going to be bad at it. You know, the top five squad of that lineup. Bome's been kind of a pretty good RBI guy in Philadelphia over the years. And I think it's partly because he hits a lot of doubles. Although the number really cratered last year. He had a bad year last year just in general. But I think Alec Bome is an underappreciated kind of guy for fantasy purposes because people look at the position. They look at what he should be doing in their minds by a way of home runs. And then they say, well, I don't like him because he's not hitting as many home runs as I want. And to me, that sounds like there's still the potential for it. But in the meantime, you pick up your 100 RBIs and your, you know, Semi, decent batting average Alec Bome, if you're getting them in the 18th round, I think is a dead steel. Yeah, I mean, I think he's capable of it 300 and I think it's just circumstances that have kept him from that and I think he's a pretty sure that it's too late as long as he's healthy. And he was not healthy last year. So basically getting out of the lineup. So given that health and where he's going in the draft, I think he's a gift. Well, Gene, this has been very interesting so far. We'll take a quick break, we'll have some news and then we'll finish our discussion in a few minutes. How about that? So like a plan. Gene McCaffrey is the wise guy of fantasy baseball and he'll be back in just a minute or two for part two of our talk. Right now though, it's time in the show when I get to let you know about some of the great content that lets us say baseball HQ dot com is the best fantasy baseball website in the business in playing time today. Our team analysts have the latest skinny on TJ Rumpfield's hot start in Colorado, Starling Marta's new deal with Kansas City and Max Scherzer resigning with Toronto. And in Babs Analysis, Doug Gruber uses the Babs system to identify some deep sleepers for this year's drafts, including Colorado Catcher, Braxton Fullford, Angels Outfielder Bryce T. Adosio and Pittsburgh left-hander Hunter Barco. And in fact, some flukes. Analyst Brent Chessler has deep dives on five national eagres, including Dodgers Catcher Will Smith and San Diego right-hander Nick Povetta. And that's just the tip of the iceberg of all the great content at the HQ site during draft season and the regular season when you subscribe to baseball HQ dot com the best fantasy baseball website in the business, giving you that expert content plus tools you can use to improve your teams and win your leagues. And don't forget to use the promo code radio26 at checkout for 10 bucks off the 2026 draft prep subscription, which runs through April 30th. So you get all the critical intel you need for a draft plus those vital first month roster changes. promo code radio26 for 10 scoons off a draft prep subscription to the best fantasy baseball website in the business. Baseball HQ Radio. And welcome back to baseball HQ radio Patrick David. Time now for part two of our feature expert interview with Jean McCaffrey, the wise guy of fantasy baseball. Jean, welcome back to the show. I don't know how much auction drafting you do anymore, but you used to do quite a bit of it and you had a lot of pretty sound theories about how to go about it. So in a nutshell, if you're in an only league, say what do you think is the sound to strategy before you get to the table? It only leads I like to draft quantity and I like it as the late great speed one used to say quantity is quality. And I don't like holes. And so I tend to go with a spread the risk strategy in only means now that said, I would go against that strategy if I was in a league where everyone was thinking this that way. If everyone spreading the risk, then the expense of guys are going to be underpriced. And therefore, I think if you get a bargaining, you've got to go for it and adjust on the fly. You can still kind of do a spread the risk strategy with a big ticket die or even two, but if it comes down with you got to get three or four of them, then you're going to go into stars and scrubs. And I would not do it unless I was in those circumstances. And the other key part, if you do that, you have to make sure that you've got cheap guys that are going to contribute because if you're going with a bunch of dollar guys, you better get something out of two or three of them. You don't have to hit on all of them, but you've got to get something pretty substantial out of two or three of guys, which is hard to do. It is especially because in most 12 team leagues, the waiver pool, especially at the start of the season and nearly going, is pretty skimpy, though most of the players are already spoken for. What about in a 15 team mix? I asked you this years ago and you said very famously, there's no rational pricing strategy in 15 team mix. Do you still feel that way? Yeah, because regular players are available for a dollar rotation starters will be available for a dollar. It's unavoidable. So therefore, it doesn't really matter how much you pay for the top guys. What does matter is that you don't want to overpay for mediocrity. You don't want to pay $11 for Jeff McNeill. You know, 10 Jeff McNeill is going to be there for a buck at the end. So I don't have any problem with building stars and scrubs. In fact, I think it's preferable on a mix and a mixed league team. The talent pool is too big. Well now I'm going to ask you about a sort of a case study. I'm playing an American League only 12 team auction. One of the other managers is also in another American League auction. I found out that his hit pitch split was 195 65, which is kind of a 75% 25 split, which is already a little higher than most people. He spent 184 of his hitting dollars on his top six hitters. So six hitters, 184 dollars, including $135 on just his first three hitters. You're talking about guys like Aaron Judge and Bobby with. And of course, he only had $11 left for the eight remaining scrubs. And it didn't work out that well. I don't think when I do the projections of his projected stats, it looks like he's middle of the pack at best in most of the categories. And of course, he's not going to be able to run up any pitching stats either because he only had $65 to spend on pitchers and he didn't even get any closers. Gene, am I missing something here? How can this possibly work? Well, he must have hit on several of his feet guys there that had to be anything like to have good starting pitchers. So I mean, in a 12-T only league, you can't.
don't be category. So that doesn't mean but he must have had some nice hits on his cheap guys to do you know league like that. So you get the way players you can win with that strategy I mean but it's very hard to do and I would not bet that he's going to do the same thing and win two years in a row and if he does you better get a market show and he can tell me what that's going to be. So well this this particular strategy hasn't been tested yet he played something similar I think a year before but it wasn't as drastic as this and I'm just wondering if you think it's possible that you can spend that much money on the top six looking ahead to this year and it doesn't look like it's going to work and how heavy can you go on stars and scrubs before it becomes self-destructive basically. I don't know if that could also open some field for for a specific risk strategy you know because he's basically he's not a factor in these you know 10 to 20 dollar players who are going to go in the middle of the auction who are in many cases really good guys and solid contributors. So I especially like it if two or three guys do that then I you're really set up to do a spread to risk so some of it is you know feeling the room and seeing what's going on in your draft. Keep the track of the draft and whether it's over or under value and then just adjusting on the fly. But yeah I mean I would be very surprised if that strategy worked two years in a row. On the other hand doesn't have to work two years in a row. He won you know he did a strategy anyone and maybe if he does ten times he went in place and then he's happy. One of the things about these expert leagues is whether it's not funny in it is another thing Steve Moore used to say that you're going to understand you might as well finish last I mean the matter is he's winny so you might as well in that sense take his shots but I just don't think it's a high percentage strategy. I had one thought gene the leagues allow trading and I wonder could this be a strategy to build up leads in the categories early on especially in the counting stats and to a lesser extent maybe in batting average or OBP and then start dealing some of those top players in I'll give you one you give me two kind of things so he kind of moves into a spread the risk strategy after the draft by trading big name players for packages of lesser name but still useful players. Sure yeah you do that um but you're kind of banking on that's what's going to be that you're going to be able to do that and it's a big assumption I mean it's possible but you were assuming that that's going to be true and it may not be in the in the heat of battle and then and you're trading partners and they may they may not see it that way and therefore they they stop so I mean you can do it with the amount of assumption but you take it again and it always seemed to me gene that trading one top level offensive player for two medium level offensive players is a bad deal for the guy who's giving up the two just because of the counting stats so you get two you know 70 or 65 or 70 RBI guys and you trade them for one guy there's very few seasons in which 140 RBI's is even on the table so you start losing ground in those categories yeah and home runs even more so that you know two twenty dollar players are worth more than a thirty-nine dollar player and a one dollar player and that's basically true it's not true in every case obviously but but generally speaking it's true and and I think it's sensible to proceed on that basis have you ever tried any offbeat auction strategies over the years um yeah um in fact I won uh uh Johnny and I won of uh uh uh a towel wars lead um we were going to do we did a modified Labadini because then when I always thought that if you ever look at the the famous or infamous Labadini strategy what he did was he he spent nine dollars on his pitching stuff and and then but you didn't do it right because first of all you should never say I'm going to spend nine dollars on my pitching step I actually blew the strategy early on because this is a long time ago and Matt Morris I don't even remember Matt Morris was shying at twelve dollars and so I did thirteen dollars for him and so that blew the strategy but it didn't really blow the strategy I mean the basic for us here was the same and our thinking in that it was a it was an NLO really and so and there were a lot of guys playing the spread of this strategy and you know Ron Schammer was playing in urban and Lenny were playing it and and they had had great success doing it because of the good strategy my thinking was well how he going to beat this and the way to beat it is to load up on high dollar guys and then what happens is the middle rank guys become overpriced and that's exactly what happened I mean guys like Derek Lee as I recall with North like twenty three twenty four dollars when he was a sixteen dollar player so that happened there were no good players left so we really heavily went on offense without saying I'm going to draft only dollar pictures I think we ran up spending twenty two dollars on a picture and did get a closer by the way and but not a lot of superstars and and that worked out and we did actually make a trade during the season in which I traded hitting for a picture who put us over the top and but again we had you know we had good luck with the with the pictures we got we got some middle relieve we got a middle reliever one ten games but that was an entirely luck because you were looking at you know I look at the way he was out for guys on good teams who pitch multiple edits or at least finish multiple games because there are guys who are going to get some wins especially nowadays is even more true now that it was then because as those days pictures you could be counted on the go six seven eight minutes whereas now you know many of them are being taken out you know even before the fifth minute so I mean that that opens up a lot of wins and the most the middle of the good middle relievers on good teams are going to get some wins and you know you're going to see somebody with 15 wins one of the years in the next two weeks yeah what we need is another mic Marshall I would be I'm delighted if I see a guy's going to pitch 80 edits you know I although I have never understood for the life of me especially nowadays why they don't have relievers that go once through the badding order I mean they don't want to face they the big thing is that we can't have the guy go third time to the order but why can't guys go through once through a badding order twice a week that does not seem to me to be even remotely abusive of the picture and then that's a hundred innings and that's that's great you know I mean that's that's what they should do instead of I mean every year there's there's hundreds of pictures who pitch fewer than 20 innings and almost all of them are awful and yet they keep on doing it and I think somebody's going to come up with a with a nice strategy where they where they pitch their best pictures more you know and you can do it without abusing them as they say I can just anyway I'm dying to see somebody try it and I'm gonna root for that team hard when it does happen and it is gonna happen at some point although I've been predicting the fear about 10 years of it has just keep predicting it and it's bound to happen it's like the it's like the big crash in the economy you just say it every year sooner or later you're right that's right he predicted that yeah several times in fact I think if you got a guy going three innings twice a week that would be six innings a week times 26 weeks I'd be like 150 innings or 160 innings in relief and I think it's doable that be a one-streetier water is not going to quite make it the three innings I guess not three innings straight through he is one of the yeah yeah so I figured and you know you don't want to be a doctor now about it you can be a little flexible you can get the guy in next the day here and then you know pitch him in the extra in there and you know people like there are off days and such so I mean I think one of the reasons why managers do what they do I think is because it absorbs the responsibility right to want to make decisions and they don't want to be held accountable and you know in that sense managers are very different from the from the old school guys that we grew up with, you know, involved in getting
the dam what somebody thought about him abusing his pictures which he actually did. I was going to say, be careful what you wish for. But you know, we were different and he had a four man rotation. He learned his lesson quick and you know guys like Whitey, Herzog and even Luke, Penella, you know, I think for all his faults he managed to bring home some winners. So to me and a good need to accept and welcome his responsibility and say, yes, this is my decision, this is what I'm doing. So it's a baseball becoming like everything else, more bureaucratic and more, you know, not my style. Yeah, and part of that I think is the imposition of the strategies by non baseball people who are using spreadsheets and stuff like we do and I'm not disparaging it at all. But sometimes I think the managers are actually constrained by the front office from adopting strategies. Maybe he goes in there and he says, I'd like to do this. And yeah, no, no, no, the guys say that you can't have a guy pitch that often. And maybe it should be on some kind of combination of batters faced or innings, but also counting a pitch counts, which they already do, but using it more intelligently than just saying, you know, this guy has to stop now at this exact point. He's at 28 pitches or 35 pitches or whatever it is. And the other thing is, I mean, trying to put everything in the box is stupid. It's the, it's the reality at the window. Yeah, even with the guys, you don't want the guy to go to third time through the order. Okay. I understand that. Who are you bringing in to instead of him? Is he better than the guy that you're taking out the third time through the order? It doesn't seem that they have ever considered it. And obviously, the guy in many cases, in most cases, is worse because you get all these guys with the RAs of five and a half coming in and they predictably, you know, give up the lead and then goes my wind. And, you know, we've all been there. Back to the offbeat auction strategies. Have you ever been in drafts where somebody adopted a really oddball strategy that you remember or have you read about any other than Labidini, the kind of strategies that don't look like they could work, but somebody gave them a try anyway. Yeah, I want to come to mind that and it did not work. It was a high state sports in Vegas in which your guy drafted all pictures who would not pitch because at that time, there was no minimum in his requirement. So he got top points in ERA and wind because of the ERA and whip was zero. But he didn't have any wins. He didn't have any strikeouts and he didn't want to end up doing too well. Yeah, right. I can see the flaws. And I think what happened was that one of his pictures got called up and got bombed. You know, he was sitting there all year with zero, zero, zero and all of a sudden he was lost in ERA and then, okay, so he wasn't going to win that. You have to make sure that your pictures are, you know, even if they were in A-Ball, I think the guy wasn't in that corner. He was drafted all these guys for a buck. Nobody knew that. He didn't hurt his half of these guys. They had no chance of being an in-die event, particularly season. But, you know, that, yeah, that was a really wide strategy that did not work. He didn't have any ERA and whip of zero. He had an ERA and whip of some irrational number because you're dividing by zero and maybe they should have disqualified him on that basis. Did you ever hear of a guy who did a 50-50% split in an auction somewhere once? I think I've done it before. Oh, yeah, how did it work? Or close. Yeah. As I recall, it was not a plan that was just the way it worked out because the pictures were going through two little money. And, you know, at one point, you know, there was a picture, you know, going to $10, you should have been $20. And, okay, you know, I'm going to do this and that's the way it worked out. And, I don't think I would not leave, but it was not humiliated. And again, was it a trading league? Because then you could start dealing the surplus in wins and strike-hots and drive. Yeah, and it wasn't trading. So, definitely. Yeah. Any strategy like that is more, has more appeal with the trading. Yeah. If you could trade from straight as long as you, as long as you find trading partner. You're listening to baseball HQ Radio. I'm Patrick David with Gene McCaffrey, the wise guy of fantasy baseball and Gene, you've been here before. You know, we like to wrap up these discussions by looking at some boons and bains for the coming season. We'll start with some boons. These are a couple of players. You think we'll deliver positive value for fantasy managers this year. Let's start with a hitter. Three-a-hitter or two if you want, who could be boon or boons. I have many boon hitters. I can even go through them by position if you want. Go ahead. I'm catcher. I love Salvador Torres this year. Boring old Salvador Torres. However, he's still producing as a Hall of Famer should produce. He's not going to catch very much, but he is going to play a lot. And then moving into fences in Kansas City. I think that's a big deal. I mean, I think you could pretty much bank on 30-hole runs with a shot at the high 30s. In the middle of a vest, we improved lineup. His relative value is fantastic. First space. Several guys. I think Bryce Harper, if you want to take the injury risk, is a nice place going in the four-quam, as I see it. That's nice. He is risky, but he's also a Hall of Fame talent and should put up at least one more big season before at least one more before he's through. Lesser guys, later in the draft, going down the list of Jenny Tasclantino, C. Salvador Perez, Alex Burleson on the cardinals also qualifies in the outfield. The cardinals finally realized that he could hit. I don't think he's fantastic, but I think he's going to be a nice John Crook, Josh Neller type without the 30-stolen bases with Neller. And then Sotterstrom also qualifies in the outfield in first place on Oakland. And he's just a good hitter who's going to produce. And the second base, I've never been an Aussie Albe's guy, but now he's going to low. And I mean, he should bounce back, at least to some extent. And he's going way too low. And the other guy is Zadr Edwards, who fits in the strategy if you're trying to put your stolen bases in a few different baskets. He's a basically a three-cat guy, but I do think he's going to hit for average at score runs. So that makes him a three-cat guy and sort of a one-cat guy. And where he's going, which is, after 150, I think he's a good guy to take. Short stuff. I can't resist Corey Seager because he's just so good when he's healthy. I realize that he's a big injury risk. If he's too much of an injury risk for you, you might go to follow the shit who is going to do what he does. He's not spectacular, but he's in a great RDI spot. And he's sort of like, he's sort of like Alec Bome, so he steals a few more bases. They can run, as they said, they've seen Lunez on Washington's Great Research Kit. On the third base, we talked about Bome. We like him. I also like Austin Riley. I think he was just hurt last year. There's nothing wrong with him. He's going too low. In the outfield, Brian Reynolds, classic last year's Bome, also in the middle of an improved lineup. And he should bounce back and be a nice valuable guy. He's going far too late. Dale and Lyle, though we mentioned before, very fast. But I also think he can hit. He's got a little bit of power. I think he's going to be, I think he'll wind up on a third in that lineup, which is great. I'm going to start that way. Justin Crawford, I mentioned. And also Jackson Meryl, who was hurt a little bit last year. And I think that he is. There was a reason why people were so high-cowder because he said, great looking getter. And I think he's going to show that this year. So he's enough of another bite in the opportunity. Go on to pictures. Yeah, pictures, Boone. So what do you got? Trevor Rogers. I know it's kind of risky. I don't know if there's a shock. everybody to find.
last year, he's actually good, but he is. He's not a super hard thrower, but he throws hard enough. I think the results speak for themselves, and while he's not going to have an ERA under two, I mean, it is signature significant that somebody can pitch 100 plus endings and have an ERA under two. That means you're a good pitcher. It doesn't necessarily mean you're going to be fantastic, but it needs to be good, as long as you're healthy. Then later on, Grayson Rodriguez appears to be healthy, and he's going very late, and he could very easily wake up being the age of that stiff half. Of course, that's not saying anything, but I mean, to be a good pitcher, I mean, he's currently being drafted. There's your, you know, 5, 6, 7 pitcher, and he's a great pick there. And I feel the same way about Ronaldo Lopez, who has definitely got a rotation slot. The last time we looked, he was a very good pitcher. It took him a while to get going, but he did get going, and he's healthy, and so he's a great speculation. Two other guys early Connolly and rather snowing, who are also late guys who like it, they're going to help you. Alright, a treasure trove there. Let's move on to your Bains. Players you think might be likely to disappoint fantasy managers this season. Again, we'll start with the hitters. Who's Bain or Bains? Well, as I say, with my, with my Bains, they're all relative, and there are very few guys in this list that I actually dislike. But I think it's more relative to where they're going. And I'd catch your Samuel Bessio. I have some concerns about his playing time, and I have concerns about whether he's going to hit for any kind of average, especially if this thing just career. I think eventually you'll be good. I think he could be good this year, but I'm just not going to take him in the deep catcher's pool. I'm not going to reach him at all. First base, it's hard to find anybody with the possible infection of curts on Oakland. Again, I think he could be really good, but he should become now just a little based on regression. And the other thing is I don't like the way he was striking out at the end of the last year. So he may be, he may turn it into your classic low average power hitter, you know, a more like a mad old singer or a penal on which is a fine player, but just relatively speaking, he may not be the great value this year. Second base and third base is jazz chiseled. Again, he may turn it on this year, and I understand the position scarcity of both second and third base. But I mean, he is production has not been in the class where he should be done in the second round. Maybe this year that will change, but it's not a risk that I would take. Shortstop, again, I liken Gunner Henderson, but I'm not taking him in the first round until he has a first down seat. Third base, Alex Breggman. Again, he's not a bad player, but I think he's overvalued and I just see him hitting balls into that corner of Reckley Field that would be home runs in other ball parks that are going to be caught for outs in Chicago. So I'm down on him. In the outfield, Roman Anthony, again, I want to see him do it first. Cody Belinger, he's okay, but he's not better than guys who are going later than he is. Andy Pahez, I wonder, and this was it, you know, people say the postseason doesn't matter. It matters to me when you look really bad in the postseason that he did. He looks so bad that they took them out of the lineup, and that shows me that they're willing to take them out of the lineup and they look to produce. So I'm not going to take it as anything more than a late speculation. And then finally, in the outfield is Steve and Juan. Again, it's not that I don't like him. It's just that I don't think he produces enough as a real history player, you know, as opposed to a real player to go where he's going. You know, he has to steal 20 bases to to earn that key. That 20 bit, you know, and 20 stone is not that great. So he's not a high on my list. How about the picture, Baines? Now again, the only picture who I really think is outrageous to I is chase burns. Because again, he could be great right away. And I realized that he's got explosive potential. He could also struggle for three years before he can be realizing that potential. He could just as easily, you know, or sort of straddle a little like them with seats. You know, sometimes he's good, sometimes he's bad. And in any case, he's going way too high. He's more respected than any kind of a SP three. To a lesser extent, a little down on Fambervale Des. The left side of his infield is not what it was in Houston. He needs the left side of the infield to be effective. I could see him having a season there where the battle against him goes up, you know, considerably over 300. And then all of a sudden he's not so great anymore. And then the other guy who I think is sunny gray. And I think I saw signs that in the last year finally given up the ghost as a word, you know, I think that he's is effectively this. The velocity was down. And now he's going back to the A at least. I don't I don't like that. I'll take a chance on the young guy. That spot. A bumper crop of Boons and Bains. Gene McAfee's Boons, Cassal Perez of Kansas City, Bryce Harper of Philadelphia, Vinnie Pascontino of KC, Alec Burleson of St. Louis Tyler, Soda Strum of the Athletics, Ozzy Albe's of Atlanta, Xavier Edwards in Miami, Cory Seager in Texas, Boba Shet of the Metz, Alec Bome of Philadelphia, Austin Riley of Atlanta and Brian Reynolds, Dailin Liles of Washington, Justin Crawford and Philly and Jackson, Merrill of San Diego, the Outfielders, his pitcher Boons, Trevor Rogers of Baltimore, Grayson Rodriguez of the Angels, Ronaldo Lopez in Atlanta. His Bains catcher Samuel Basayo in Baltimore, Nick Kurtz of the Athletics at first, Jazz Chisholm, covering a second and third. That's position flexibility of Boonx Bains, shortstop Gunner Henderson of Baltimore, third baseman Alex Bergman of the Cubs, Outfielders Roman Anthony of Boston, Cody Belinger of the Ankeys, Andy Pares of the Dodger, Stephen Quann of Cleveland and his pitcher Bains, Chase Burns of Cincinnati, Franber of Aldez of Detroit, sunny grain Boston. Gene has been great, remind our listeners where they can keep up with you. Well, they can't anymore because I'm basically retired. You know, I had a big heart procedure last November and it just wasn't in any kind of shape to write. So I begged out of doing the athletic. I don't know, maybe we'll get together again in the middle of the summer and see how we're doing with our teams. So in a way, I kind of feel liberate, I don't have to write. I can concentrate on playing, which I need to do. I have not had very many good years in road-oven recently. Years a lot, much better at the FF. But I like to have a good year in road over before I broke. And so, you know, maybe we can talk later in the summer. Yeah, absolutely. We get you back lots of times. Do you do any socials? Twitter, any Twitter, blue sky, those kind of things? Oh, yeah, I'm on X. That's about it. But I had the feeling, I don't really post very much. I don't really, I'm not really into books. You know, I like the historical baseball accounts I'm actually talking about, you know, I like talking about the old guys and little stories telling my Ted Klozowski's. The guy with the no sleeves on his baseball jersey? Yeah, I collided with him, had on a full speed on the field that chased him in 1973. At the end of the playoffs when everyone was rushing onto the field. Oh, yeah. Yeah. And there was a picture of it in Sport Magazine, which I've been looking for for decades and can't find. But you can see in the picture, you can see me because I had a big eye for it at the time. And now I got to see this. And you can see Klozowski. And we, you can see that we're on a collision course for each other. I was one of the first people out on the field. I was running full tilt and so was he to get off the field, but to get away from the bar. And I went fly. I bet my grass is flew off almost.
got trampled to death by what was going to be a bob behind it. We lucky didn't get trampled. I'm lucky I didn't get killed. You're right. And my angels look in action. But yeah, so as I say, I'm not going to run that much. I mean, maybe I'll pop it here and there and they had my chance to always be glad to have you. I appreciate you doing this this morning. We ran into some technical difficulties, but managed to get it done. I do appreciate it. And as I said, I'll definitely be in touch during the season. Take it back on. Thank you for having me and it's always great to be here and talk to you soon. And that's baseball HQ Radio for Tuesday, March the 3rd. Thanks very much for taking the time to download and listen to show number four of the 2026 fantasy baseball season. Thanks also to our guest expert for this show Jean McCaffrey, the wise guy, a fantasy baseball, a legend in the fantasy baseball community, one of the smartest and nicest guys in a business full of smart, nice guys and way up there on the most fun list. I'm Patrick Davitt, the host of baseball HQ Radio. Remember you can stay in contact with baseball HQ on Facebook and on our Twitter feed at baseball HQ. You can also get your baseball HQ Radio updates on my personal Twitter feed at Patrick Davitt and on my feed at Blue Sky. Patrick Davitt, all one word at bskybsky.social. If you're already on the Blue Sky site, just search me, Patrick Davitt, and if you like what you see, give me a follow. Please tell your friends about baseball HQ Radio and help new listeners find the pod by leaving us a good review and a rating. Wherever you get your podcasts, if your podgetter of choice doesn't find baseball HQ Radio, please let us know about that or anything else on your mind by emailing
[email protected]. Thanks again for listening. We'll be back again Friday with another Friday full edition featuring Ryan Bloomfield from baseball HQ.com, the speculator columns there, and the co-host of the Bubba and the Bloom Podcast. Plus, our fantasy baseball news and commentaries all coming up on another Friday full edition of the podcast with fantasy baseball intelligence for winners. It is baseball HQ Radio. We'll talk with you again on Friday and for now, so long. Baseball HQ Radio is a weekly free podcast available through iTunes and other podcast aggregators, or directly from baseball HQ.com, where we have an archive of past shows as well. Just look for the HQ Radio microphone logo on the right side of the baseball HQ.com homepage. Baseball HQ Radio is a production of the USA Today Sports Media Group. The opinions expressed on baseball HQ Radio are those of the individuals speaking and not necessarily those of the USA Today Sports Media Group. The program is produced and edited by Patrick Davitt.
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