Bailey Ober Shutout & A.J. Ewing's Electric Debut! (5/13 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast from CBS Sports Got a fantasy question email fantasy baseball at CBSi dot com get ready to win your lead Now here's Frank Scott and Chris hello Welcome in to fantasy baseball today on Wednesday May 13th. I am Frank sampled joy by Scott white day on the show Bailey over through a Maddox while averaging 88.6 miles per hour on his fastball That's baseball Susan an electric debut for AJ Ewing two pitch returns that went very poorly and much more Only one place to start. It's over No way that could be right Bailey over 9,000 shout out to my dragon ball Z fans out there Scott. I don't know if you're one of them. Are you one of them? Dragon Ball Z guy. I have no idea what you reference. I've heard of dragon ball Z I remember how the theme song goes, but I don't know what 9,000 means Well over 9,000 Bailey over 9,000. It's a whatever. It's like a long old meme when you wonder why I don't know about any movies It's just because I have like you slip knowledge about you heo and Pokemon and dragon ball Z and all right dumb video games and things like that Book lumps into your childhood there. Let's talk about Billy over Scott. He was pretty amazing. What do we do with this? Uh, okay. Yeah, he was pretty amazing to hit the Marlon struck out seven walked nobody and That makes his Ratio stats look pretty impressive too as he arrays down to 346 his whip Especially impressive. It's down to one oh two I don't know that I believe any of that so you break down how his seasons actually gone He's had two very strong starts this one obviously very strong start the other one was April 19th against the reds Where he struck out 10 over six and a third innings lad no one runs in that contest, but other than those two outings It feels like Bailey over has managed to tread water But in a way where it feels like it's about to collapse in on himself. I mean the subparlative control It like zero walks and ninenings in this start helped that ratio quite a bit It dropped his walk rate to 2.6 for nine But that's still a career worst and his swing strike rate has just cratered from where we used to sing it Not surprising with that reduced velocity So I'm just not sure there's enough here. I mean Yeah, he he allows weak contact in the air so when he throws enough strikes and And makes it so those weekly hit fly balls are Plentiful enough that Nothing sailing over the fence that It's the sort of approach that can space out hits he can have a two hit effort like this But again, it's it's just not dominant enough And it's less dominant than it's been in the past when we've seen huge swings from in Bailey over performance That I I don't think I want to put too much on this outing I will say you know, maybe there's a little bit of sour grapes to play here because I've had him I drafted him. I think I think tgfbi one of the 15 team road o leagues Which is the only format where I would have had a roster at all, but I drafted him in one dropped him right before that first great start the let the 10 strike out effort picked him up again after it For a healthy chunk of fab dropped him again before this outing but that that I mean that speaks to the way his he's looked in his other outings, which is just very blah So I did have bids in in in Tatt Wars this week to drop him But I didn't get any of the players that I wanted so I kept him and because he had two starts I started him so yay me belly over Amazing start here. Yeah, you had 14 whiffs on 89 pitches nine of those on the change up I dug into try and see what he's doing differently this year He is leading with the change up. That is his most thrown pitch so far this year It's done really well limiting hard contact, but the whiff rate is down From 30% last year to 23% so far this year his sweeper looks like a great pitch It's his best with pitch, but he only throws it 11% of the time and again the fastballs only 88.6 miles per hour I looked into location type things to see if all right Maybe he's just like spotting his pitches really well His location plus was below 90 coming into this start 100 is league average so It wasn't that really the biggest thing is the fact that he is keeping hard contact down Much better than years past the average EV the hard hit rates are down the barrel rate against is down from 10.9% to 7.6% How sticky is that you know normally we need a pretty large sample to know If that's legitimate for a starting pitcher and something that he is actually controlling himself So here's the thing you say he's limiting hard contact much better than years past It is it is a career best for average exit velocity, but it was also really good in 2020 487.5 well either way it's just good for him to get good for him to get back to that Basically like last year he was just getting even even in Even in 2024 He finished with a 398 ERA And that was with him just having 9.6 k per 9 rather than the 6.8 k per 9 he has now right obviously a huge difference there And I just I don't think in the long run it's gonna work for him even though he can have his moments Like I said, he's treaded water well enough in between the two good starts that the ERA and whip looks very strong right now But waiting for that other shoot to drop. I think there is a disaster start coming And it won't be the last one So it feels like he's kind of in that stream or territory the starting pictures We've been excited about adding over the past couple of weeks Max Meyer Logan Henderson Robbie snelling I'm pretty confident in saying all three of those are ahead of Billy Obert Yeah Yeah absolutely not particularly close in my mind. Yeah, and then you get into other kind of streamery types like foster Griffin has done some good things But still kind of feels like a streamer who would you who would you take between foster Griffin and Billy Obert? I think they appear as good as their last start and I would be quick to drop them if They gave me a reason to so I will lean over for now, but Not clinging tightly to either one. All right my player the night AJ Ewing the prospect for the med to made his debut And it was a very impressive one he went one for two with three walks a triple two runs two RBI And his first stolen base the triple came off of a lefty so left on left And he had two hard hits in this game the triple 104.2 exit velocity he had a flyout 102.3 EV 382 feet so did send it out to the warning track there Against Jack Flarety earlier in that game It's only one game and it's like how much can you take away from one game for a hitter But man what a debut for hewing just Flashing that amazing speed that we saw not we saw but you know that he showed in the miners last year with the 70 stolen bases So he's only 31% rostered. I feel like that number is going to go up quite a bit and Depending how many other Good to great games he has the rest of this week he might just go for a massive amount of fab this weekend's got Yeah, he might I think he's really good. I was especially encouraged to see the three walks I mean it was good to see him hit two balls 102 or better that's Seeing that exit velocity right away is is good for a player whose power is the most questionable part of his game But I especially liked the three walks because there's always a question with minor league hitters Who walk a lot and you and consistently has are they Patient or are they passive and you can make the argument you Ewing was the latter. I think any minor league hitter who has a comically high walk rate is probably a little bit passive His zone swing percentage so the percentage of times he swung at pitches in the zone was on the lower end And one game in the majors doesn't prove anything of course, but seeing him walk excessively Against major league pitchers like he did against minor league pitchers. I think is an encouraging first sign And they did put Carson Benj back up to lead off in this game, but You know, he starts to see some more some more games like this out of AJ Ewing I I think it's pretty likely that he winds up being the leadoff man sooner rather than later You know not Nothing taking nothing away from Carson Benj. I still think he's a very good prospect and he's been hitting much better as of late But maybe he slides down a little bit or maybe just bet second in the lineup whatever it might be But yeah, I think AJ Ewing very quickly rises up the uh the lineup here for the New York Mets 31% rostered widely available Still just five outfielder leaks god or And a three outfielder league if you just have a bench spot to mess with just pick him up and see where it goes I wouldn't say he's a must in three outfielder leagues, not because of him particularly, but just because you don't have to go that deep into the outfield, boy, you don't have to speculate that much on anybody. But if you're pursuing upside, I think his skillset lends itself well to points leagues. I mean, the stolen base ability, the batting average upside, I think people can see the categories league upside a little better, but in points leagues, walking a lot particularly if it's CVS points leagues, where it's two points of steel. I think there's plenty of upside for you in that format. If you you have a spot to play with and just want to pursue some upside. Let's check it on some of the other prospects here who played on Tuesday night. Sam Antonacci, he is making things happen as well. Two for four with his third steel in 10 May games. He's hitting 343 with three steals and 825 OPS. He has let off seven of the past eight games for the white socks, 38% rostered. I'm pretty sure yesterday or two days ago, you said you would take viewing over Antonacci. Okay. So clearly you're sticking with that. I would say. I still would because I think the steals upside is higher. I think the bat, maybe in every respect to the bat is better. It's just a higher skill level overall for you. I think they're comparable in the type of player they are, but I think you wing is just a little better at everything. Yeah. I think there's just there's more juice there with AJ Hewing. Ryan Walchmann, he was in the lineup batting ninth. He went one for three with a double. It was 100.5 exit velocity, 375 feet. He has started four straight. He has hit ninth in all four here for the debacks. I think we all still would take Walchmann over Ewing, even though it's only one game. He said that the other day. And then the other three that we've talked a lot about Bryce Eldridge back in the lineup against Yamamoto. He went over three of the strikeout, Spencer Jones, not in the lineup against the lefty and Henry Bolte, not in the lineup against the right handed pitcher, which is something we were worried about for him. Just how does he get at bats with the athletics here, his first go around before we hit our first break. If you enjoy the audio podcast, if you listen on Apple or Spotify, please consider leaving us a five star rating and review. It really does help a lot. Let's take a break and we'll be back right after this. Welcome back in fantasy baseball. Today, let's talk news and notes. Ronald Acunia is progressing, but not likely to be reinstated when first eligible here on Wednesday. Walt Weiss added that Acunia is still quote a ways out. And honestly, as someone who has him in at least one league, I think it's only one league, just take the time to get this right because come back too soon for a hamstring for a guy that likes to run. You know, you could wind up, you know, just making that injury worse. So just take the time you need and just come back when you're fully healthy. Any braves brass or Ronald Acunia if you're out there listening, Gerrard crocheted through off amount on Tuesday, but we don't have much outside of that. So it is a positive development there for Gerrard crochet. Cole Reagan's has played catch two of the past three days. And he remains day to day. He's still on the aisle. Obviously, he'll play catch again on Wednesday. Brandon Nemo left early Tuesday night with a sprained left ankle. He was previously dealing with a like a hamstring or a quad or something. So hopefully not a big deal. Nathan of Aldi who was scratched from his start on Monday with left side discomfort remains day to day. So just waiting to see does he go on the aisle or you know, just he just get pushed back because he make a start later this week. We'll wait on that. Here's a nice surprise. Christian Yelich was activated and in the lineup for the brewers batting third. He went over four or two shrike outs. Probably gets off to a slow start. Didn't have a rehab, you know, rehab outings or anything like that. So just getting thrown right back in the fire. There is Christian Yelich. Why a Lampford remains shut down from swinging a bat. He recently suffered a setback with his right forearm strain. Roman Anthony has yet to resume baseball activities. He's on the aisle with a right wrist brain. Brandon Woodrow is scheduled to throw a bullpen on Thursday. He's not expected to need a lengthy buildup. Well, pay attention to any velocity reports we get from that. Jacob Wilson was placed in the aisle with a left shoulder subluxation. No timetable for a return, but could be an extended absence there for Jacob Wilson. It was a Jarell Harnays who started at shortstop here for the athletics on Tuesday night. Jared Jones made another rehab start at AA. He went four shutout innings with four strikeouts. And in three starts total. It's a.90 ERA a.90 whip just over a strikeout per inning. He's been flashing massive velocity. He looked really good. Scott. So 59% rostered for Jared Jones. I would man, anywhere I have an IEL spot available, I would be trying to stash that guy right now. Yeah. I'm surprised he hasn't been picked up in more leagues as close as he is to returning. He wasn't a sure thing even before the injury. He had begun to lose a little steam and fantasy. So that might be contributing to it, but I mean, given the state of pitching on the waiver wire right now, I would rather roster Jared Jones than than Bailey Oberg. I would go as far to say I think. I also just wanted to comment on Akunya real quick. What wise did say they would evaluate him after the homestand, which is only a six game homestand. So it may just be that he's delayed a week here and not an excessive amount of time. Obviously it was it was a vague timetable offered there by wise. Luis Robert is still experiencing lingering symptoms in his back and is not progressing the way the meds would like. And you know what? If AJ Ewing keeps hitting, I'm pretty sure he will continue to experience lingering symptoms in his back. The Yankees placed Jose Caballero on the IEL with a right middle finger fracture. Anthony Volpe was recalled, but not in the lineup here on Tuesday. Aaron Boone very quickly did tell everybody that Caballero will be the team starting shortstop when he returns from injury. He hasn't done anything to lose the job. He was actually playing quite well. Believe he is the top rated defender at shortstop this season. Jose Caballero is obviously running quite a bit, which is good for fantasy. Volpe in 18 games down in the minors between AA and AAA. Only hit two 21 one homer four steals five 70 OPS. Was hitting the ball hard at AAA 92.5 average EV. 22% rostered any deeply interest got into Anthony Volpe here. I can't muster a lot of enthusiasm for him. No. Obviously if you get into deep enough league that it's a bunch of backup short stops on the way for why we'll vote these more interesting than that. But that's about as far as I'd go with it. Hassan Kim was activated by the braves. He was in the lineup betting eighth year on Tuesday in nine rehab games. He hit 286 with six runs scored a steal 733 OPS more walks and strikeouts 16% rostered. I'm more interested in Hassan Kim as a kind of deep middle infielder than I am Anthony Volpe. Well, yeah, because he's yes a job. Yeah, exactly. And I think I think with Eli White going on the aisle, obviously the fact that Akunia isn't back yet. That relieves some of the prep. Both of those two together relieve some of the pressure on on finding at bats from Mauricio DuBon to the degree that's a priority. Remember at one point we raised the issue in all the way DuBon's performing. Do they even make Kim and everyday player when he returns? I think right now it's pretty safe to say he's close to an everyday player at least because DuBon has needed much more in the outfield. All right, Quinn Priester has been cleared to resume his rehab assignment this weekend. He's 30% rostered. His velocity was way down before the rehab got paused. It got paused because he was dealing with a shoulder thing. So I still remain very, very skeptical on Quinn Priester. Sean Murphy was placed on the aisle with a fractured left middle finger and is expected to miss at least eight weeks. Just a brutal run of injuries for Sean Murphy. The Dodgers acquired Alex Thomas from the D-backs in exchange for Jose Ricania and Joey Bart was placed on the aisle with a left foot infection retroactive to Sunday. The pirates were called the N.D. Rodriguez who was hitting quite poorly at AAA. Let's talk about Mackenzie Gore who had a big bounce back here on Tuesday. Mackenzie Gore, uh, eight innings, one run, five strikeouts against the D-backs, eight whiffs on 95 pitches. Great result. I don't really see much under the hood here, Scott, that kind of explains or gives me a lot of optimism for Mackenzie Gore moving forward. I mean, the biggest thing is 66% of his pitches for strikes only one walk. That's always the biggest thing for Gore, but he also gave up a lot of hard contact, didn't get a ton of whiffs. So I don't know, it's like great result, but kind of wish there was a little bit more under the hood here. Yeah, I'm not sure how much I have to add to that, uh, because that was my impression, too, of this star for Gore, you know, even even him throwing, him issuing one walk in eight innings. It's like, okay, well, if Gore controls that well, then he's probably good. That's always been the distinction between good, good, and bad, and bad, and the past is just, is he throwing enough strikes? But he only threw 63% of his pitches for strikes in this one. So he may have been fortunate to have only one walk. He also had less than a 10% swinging strike rate in this. He barely has a 10% swinging strike rate for the season. So it's not, it hasn't, it hasn't just been typical McKinsey Gore struggles in that he's inefficient, he's walking too many guys. He has not been as dominant either in terms of how many whists he's getting. So I don't think there was enough change to his process in this one for me to feel optimistic he's turning the corner and we're about to see good Gore. It could happen at some point this year, but I'm not to the point where after this eight inning outing, I'm like, yeah, go ahead, put Gore back in your line up, sees about to take off. I don't, I don't get that impression. One thing I would rectify as a guy, it was 66% of his pitches for strikes. So obviously, I think I guess, okay, that number, that number, I think is, you know, pretty positive. That was pretty good. Yeah. So he threw 63 strikes, but it was on 95 pitches. So you probably just broke down the 63. Okay. Maybe. Yeah. Yeah. I noticed a lot of the same things is looking, you know, kind of under the hood here is the whiff rates are down on a bunch of his pitches this season. So it's, he's not throwing with as much conviction. He's just not getting as many whips as, you know, previous years with the nationals. So it's something to watch. I guess the biggest thing here is like, if you were considering dropping McKenzie Gore, who's 88% rostered on CBS, obviously after I start like this, you won't drop him, but we need to build some consistency off of this. I would imagine most people benched him as well. He's still 54% started. So a little bit more than like half the people on CBS actually use him. So congrats to you. I think I benched him wherever I had him. So I'm not great on that. Yeah. Positive, positive result there for McKenzie Gore. Let's talk about some other pictures who are trending up. Paul Skins demolished the Rockies in Pittsburgh eight shutout innings 10 strikeouts to zero walks 19 whiffs on 98 pitches. His last two starts 16 shutout innings 17 strikeouts to zero walks. Scott, we just need to put Paul Skins in a bubble and make sure that he stays there. He's healthy because between scubul and crochet and all the other pictures that have gotten hurt like this guy is performing exactly how we want him to. We just need him to say healthy. Yeah, he's kind of of the big three that were drafted in the first two rounds. He is the last one standing and by many measures, he looks better than ever. Even so. Yeah, enjoy it. Hopefully it continues. Give a winning games at a nice click because the pirates have been better. I saw a tweet on on X. It was like watch out for Paul Skins. He's really taking a step back this year, just posting his ERA every year has been 196 197 and now 198. So it's like, you know, it's like this margins, right? It's like crazy. This guy's sub two ERA for his career. It's crazy. Yeah. If he begins his career with three straight years in ERA under two, put him in the Hall of Fame already. Gosh, and opening day feels so long ago, right? Since that opening day debacle, which O'Neill Cruz had a lot to do with their playing center field, it's been a 109 ERA in a 0.53 whip in the eight starts since. So that guy Paul Skins, he's really good. Shane O'Mac. Here comes the money. Here we go. Money talks. Shane McClanahan continues to look very good this time at the Blue Jays. Five shutout innings one hit, one walk, seven strikeouts. He had 11 whiffs on 80 pitches. He has not allowed a run in his last four starts. That's 21 and 2/3 shutout innings during that time. And Zach Wheeler, another strong outing for him. He was at the Red Sox, seven and a third innings of one run ball. Only four strikeouts, but zero walks, seven whiffs on 87 pitches here. Would like to see more whiffs, obviously, but three straight quality starts. For Zach Wheeler, who's just, he hasn't looked exactly like himself of old, but he's looked very, very good. And you know, Scott, I'm just starting to think with both Zach Wheeler and Shane O'Mac, just rock solid SP3s with the possibility to climb even higher, I think, for both of them. I mean, Wheeler for sure. McClanahan has looked good. I mean, four straight starts without an earn run. Three of them are less than six innings. So it's, we're not getting any volume really. It's hard to be a true number three in fantasy, but he's looked good. And I think he's trending the right direction. And yeah, I'm, I'm not sure what else to say other than that. Yeah. I think Wheeler has the opportunity to rise even quicker just because again, he doesn't have those same kind of restrictions that that Gore does, Gore, Shane O'Mac. But Chris has pointed this out a few times already. It feels very like Drew Rasmussen E from last year. Rasmussen, you know, they've actually restricted him less so far this year. They're letting him throw more pitches and, you know, go, go six innings a little bit more consistently. But McClanahan 90 pitches or less. And all eight starts 80 pitches or less in five of eight. So I think that's going to be pretty consistent, but at least he's pitching well. That's the good sign there for, for Shane O'Mac. And then we have Brian, Brian Woo, strong start at the Astros six innings two runs nine strike outs here had 14 whiffs on 104 pitches. And he has a quality start with nine strike outs in each of his last two outings that comes after two blow up starts in a row. So this is just something we needed to see. We needed to see whiffs. We need to see, you know, the Brian Woo of last year, he has looked a lot more like that the past two outings. He has six innings, nine ks in both. He's got that k per nine rate all the way up to eight, but that's a lot better than it was a couple of weeks ago. And I was never that concerned about Brian Woo. I just felt like he was off to kind of a cool start, but he looked like the same picture. Apart from that. And I think it's reasonable that the strike outs have begun to catch up. All right, let's talk waiver wire hitters. Let's do a little this or that. Make some decisions here. Dale and Lyle or Trent Christian, Dale and Lyle, we need to see more power. We got that on Tuesday, three for five with a double dong four RBI in that one. He is 72% rostered and Trent Christian, the results are starting to come a little bit. One for three with a walk, his sixth homer, three RBI, the home run came off of a lefty in 12 May games. He's hitting 238, two homers, 10 RBI, a steal and 827 OPS. The expected stats still look really good here for Trent Christian. Scott and a shallower league. Who do you like more between Dale and Lyle and Trent Christian? I don't know that I like either in a shallower league. They're both 72% rostered, which is interesting to me. Right. Which means they're available in a lot of shallower leagues. So I think they're pretty fringy and shallow. They're both way more rostered than, you know, Antonacci and hewing we spoke about earlier. Well they're fringy and shallower leagues too. Right? I would say I prefer aggression, not to get bogged down in semantics. I think, like Dale and Lyle, even though he had three badad balls over 105 in this one. So that'll raise the average exit velocity. But it's 86.7 coming in, which is 14th percent dial. And he's not one of these players with an extreme pull air rates like an ESOC pariette is that's going to make up for that. I don't know that power is going to be a big part of his profile. He's good at keeping the ball off the ground. But I'm not sure he has either the juice or the angles, the badad ball angles to make up for it. And another thing I was hoping for for Lyle coming into the season was that he'd actually make use of his speed and he has and he's still in just two bases. If that's not going to be part of this game and it wasn't really part of the game, the little bit we saw him last year either. I'm not sure there's enough here for him to be more than fringy even in a five outfielder league, frankly. Grisham, it's a lot of its theoretical for him. Of course, he had the 34 homers last season. He's well behind pace now. But like you say, looking at the numbers under the hood, it's still a good pull air rate that X of loss. He's actually better than last year. The biggest leap for him last year, I think, was both the strike out and walk or eight improved to, if not career best than very close, they've both gotten better this year. So in all the ways Grisham took a leap last year, he's taken another leap this year. It hasn't translated to the production yet, but I have some hope. I have a little more hope that it will for Grisham than that it will for Lyle. - Two names in one catcher leagues, Ryan Jeffers and Dylan Dingler, Jeffers, keeps on hitting one for three with a walk in his sixth home run. Great plate discipline this year, hitting the ball extremely hard. Dylan Dingler, he hit his seventh home run, and his expected stats are even better than Ryan Jeffers, and he's also hitting the ball very hard, his pull their rate is up a little bit. Scott, who do you like more in a one catcher league, Ryan Jeffers or Dylan Dingler? - Yeah, that's a close one. Obviously between the two Jeffers is a much, much, much better walker. So if that matters in your format, it might tip the scales in his favor, but even then, let me see how much Dingler has been sitting, 'cause I know, yeah, Dingler's been sitting a fair amount in himself. He started, let's see, 32 of the team's 42 games. So he's starting about 75% of the time. I think Jeffers is a little less than that. That was pretty close. Either one of them is a catcher who plays anywhere close to every day. So yeah, I'm gonna say Jeffers in any scenario. - All right, two deeper, multi-position guys here. Ezekiel DeRan, some interesting underlying numbers for him, two for three of the walk. He hit his third home run. He has started 12 straight games, entering Tuesday, his plate discipline, much improved this year. His average exit velocity is up six miles per hour from where it was last year. And he is eligible at every position except for catcher. Miguel and Duhar with the Padres, went two for four with his third home run. He has started 11 of the past 12 games. He's hitting 292. He's got an 809 OPS so far. 18% rostered, third base in Outfield eligible. Deeper names here is Scott, maybe 12 team, Roto leagues are deeper. But who are you more interested in between Ezekiel DeRan and Miguel and Duhar? - Oh, let me see here. I haven't looked that closely at either one of these players. So I'll dig into it a little bit now. And Duhar has been playing a lot more than we thought. I mean, I guess they both have been playing a lot more than we thought they would at the start of the year. - Yep. I think I give Duharan a better chance of doing that, continuing with that. And he's got broader eligibility. It's not a huge difference to me, but I think I'm gonna give the slight edge to DeRan there. - Yeah, I think so too. He's hitting the ball harder. He's just a better athlete, like 91% towel sprint speed. So maybe Chipson, you know, a few steals. He's got three homers. He's got four steals. He's playing every day. They move them all around the diamond. So I think both are kind of interesting from a deeper league perspective. You could just kind of move those guys around, but I am a little bit more intrigued here by Zekiel Duharan. And any interest in these two here. It's spoke about on-hell Martinez yesterday as one of those dropped players on CBS. And boom, two for three with a sock into shoe. His sixth home run, his sixth stolen base. But was struggling in May before that game. And Luis Garcia Jr. He's been dealing, I believe it was a wrist injury he was dealing with, but he has played four straight, three for five with a double-dong. And over his last three games, he's got eight hits, two homers, four runs, five RBI. I still think there's a chance like Luis Garcia can get back to that player from a couple of years ago, but he hits the ball really hard. It's just a lot of it is on the ground. So yeah. Do you have any. - Any interest in these two? - Exil lost he's up for Luis Garcia this year, but all the same flaws remain. He never walks, he doesn't elevate well. He sits against left handers. I think that Luis Garcia we saw a couple years ago was like probably close to his best-date case outcome if the playing time never changes. - Yep. - And the fact he hit his second and third home runs in a single game. That's not really moving the needle for me. Martinez remains on how Martinez that is. I remain curious enough that I could see rostering him in a road o' league with the five outfielder spots and of course he qualifies at second base, middle and field as well, which is handy. Odds are against him. I would say being rosterable in that form at all year. And he has been trending the wrong direction lately, but if you were teetering on whether or not to drop Martinez, this might be enough to hold on another day. - He has started against every lefty except one on Hell Martinez and he has started just 19 of 31 games against righties this year. So don't really love that first point time. - It's what's better. - Yeah, he's kind of sitting out like every fourth game right now. They do kind of have a log jam trying to find like Daniel Schneeman to get in the lineup, Reese Hoskins, Manzardo even though he's been terrible. So like they have a log jam of players who are all not very good, but they're trying to find ways to make it work after calling up Travis Bazonas. So doing a good job of it so far. - Yep, let's say. - Once again, Torrentiel over achievers those Cleveland Guardians. - Let's take our final break when we return. Two pitchers returned. Both were bad. We'll talk about it right after this. Welcome back to Trevor Rogers and he was greeted by the Yankees unfortunately for innings six hits, six runs. Two homers allowed in this one. He did have 11 whips on 73 pitches and his velocity was up. So actually some encouraging things here, but he also gave up some hard contact. He gave up the two homers and his last three or four starts dating back to before the injury have all been really bad here Scott. So Trevor Rogers still 89% rostered, should he be? - I would not have a problem with that rate dropping. Like I think it's kind of inevitable. Coming back from the flu, having a start like this. I understand why people wouldn't no longer have grace for Trevor Rogers. And if there was an interesting enough pickup out there, particularly at starting pitcher, I could see making the swap myself. It's just in mostly because I don't think there is. I think we're straining to find pitching help. And you know, if you want something to be encouraged by, if you want another reason to hold on to Trevor Rogers because you're looking at the wave of wire and you don't like what you see, velocity was up across the board, up 1.3 on the fastball, up even more on everything else. And this is what Trevor Rogers had to say after this start, I love where my stuff's at. I loved where my stuff was at today. Just got to keep controlling what I can control, not really carrying what the scoreboard says. Now you could take that as a bad sign that he's delusional because he's not pitching well. He also said he would take the Orioles rotation up against anybody in baseball. - Well, it did look good coming in to be fair. I thought it looked pretty good. That's part of the reason why I put them back in the playoffs. But I was expecting on him performing better and Brad is performing better and Bos probably performing better too. But anyway, back to Rogers. You could take that as a bad sign that he's that confident that he feels that good about his stuff. But usually when pitchers are struggling, they know they're struggling and they don't shy away from it. And because these comment accompanies a big velocity jump, you know, there may be something to it. His swinging strike rate is about as good as it was last year. His walk rate is about as good as it was last year. And those were the two big leaps we saw apart from, you know, obviously the surface level, ERA and everything. So if it was me in 95% of cases where I'm rostering Rogers, I would stick it out, not saying start him, of course not start him. But I would want to see more before I pulled the plug. But I get where people are coming from if they're ready to do that. The one thing I would push back on Scott is the walk rate after this start, it's up to 3.4 walks per nine. And he's basically up like a full walk from where he was at last year. Also entering the start, it was a 366 expected ERA according to Stakas. So says that, you know, which is not that different from last year. Yeah, so he was, you know, you could say unlucky heading into the start, but then of course he gave up a bunch of hard contact and two home runs. So that number will go up. Yeah, I mostly agree. Like if you're playing a really shallow league where if you drop Trevor Rogers, other people in your league are probably not rushing to add him, it's probably fine to just stream that spot or pick up someone who you think might have more upside. But again, the names that we spoke about recently, Robbie snowing, Logan Henderson and Max Meyer. like would you drop Trevor Rogers for any of those three? I don't think I, I guess the leagues would have to be pretty shallow for them to be available at this point, right? Like I know my rankings are gonna show Rogers ahead of them, but if it's the sort of shallow league where you just wanna cycle through pitchers that you're more likely to lose to your competition if you don't act now, I could get, I could see cycling out Rogers for one of those trendier options. I do have updated numbers, by the way, last four starts for Trevor Rogers, 1057 ERA and a 215 Whip. So I mean, I get it, those are really bad numbers for him. Touched, so you, my made his return and he got rocked in his return against the Mariners. Four innings, six runs allowed, three walks, three strikeouts, two homers allowed in this one. He threw just 57% of his pitches for strikes and his average exit velocity against was 96.6 miles per hour. So maybe he'll be good one day Scott. That day is not right now and I don't see how that day is coming any time soon for Tatsu Yemi. At 65% roster, I think he's a pretty easy drop. - So entering this start, I will, I will preface this stat with entering this start in case it changed dramatically with this start. Tatsu Yemi had a 54% strike rate. Now to put that into context, a 66% strike rate is good. A 64% strike rate is average. A 62% strike rate is bad and his was 54% coming in. So like it's just untenable. And you know, maybe it's an adjustment period and he'll figure it out eventually but like there's no way you can do anything with him right now. And so in any league where roster space is precious, I don't know what incentive there is to hold on to Tatsu Yemi right now. - Yep, totally agree. These other pitchers, they just feel like kind of scout team, watch list guys for now. Walbert Arania, he was solid at the Guardians 5 innings two runs, four strikeouts. And that one, he does get a lot of ground balls, also walks a lot of batters. And Brian Bale pitching much better in bulk relief this time against the Phillies, six and a third innings one run, five strikeouts, he had 12 whiffs on 88 pitches here. And he continues to tinker. Like he's changing up the pitch mix, you know, outing by outing here. In this one, it was a lot more sinkers which worked well for him. And the last two outings in bulk relief, 13 and a third, two runs allowed, 12 strikeouts to two walks. So I'm not rushing to pick these guys up. Scott even in deeper leagues, but I think just names to watch for now. Brian Bale and Walbert Arania. - Yeah, I wonder how much following an opener has helped to set Bale on the right path here, 'cause great against the Tigers last time out, seven one run innings, and then great against the Phillies, six and a third one run innings, and both times following an opener. And he kind of did different things each time in terms of his pitch selection, really leaned on the sinker this time and kind of ditched the cutter in the previous adding even though that's his best swing in this pitch. I don't know, his whole year has been weird because he was running crazy high wif rates there early on but was getting throttled. And now we're starting to see a payoff following an opener. I don't know if something psychologically is going on there, but it is interesting. There are a lot of good signs for Bale. There already were even before these last two appearances. And now that he's delivering some results, I think we've gotta keep an eye on that. I know a lot of people are really bullish on Walbert, Arania, at least commenters I'm saying or like I've seen a lot of people express enthusiasm for Walbert, Arania in comment sections, let's say. And there are some positive signs there too, like the change up is good at missing bats. He gives up weak contact high ground ball rate. Usually if you're a decent batmancer, which he is and you're getting ground balls at a good rate, there's some potential there. The outings have tended to be short, the walks are high. But last three outings, just seven total hits and 16 innings. It's done a good job of not getting hit. There are some positive signs there for Walbert, Arania. I'm just not sure he's close enough to where he is now, where he is now at his current stage of development. I'm just not sure there's enough upside there for most leagues. Yeah, I would be more excited about him, I think in like a deeper keeper or dynastylee context, he's super young, he's 22 years old, he throws really hard. And he has above average stuff plus and location plus if you're into that kind of thing. And he has a really, really good change up. I just think he kind of needs more refinement. And maybe that's something he just picks up, pitching in the big leagues this year. It was either you or Chris who made the comp that he kind of feels a lot like Jose Soriano. And it's taken Soriano some time. We still don't know if this is like his full on breakout. It looks like it has been so far for Soriano, but like maybe over time, Walbert, Arania could get there as well. He just, he kind of feels like a very raw pitcher right now and maybe could get better as a pure pitcher over the next couple of years. I don't think it was me who made that comp, but I co-signed to it. I think it's like even compared to where Jose, Jose Soriano was last year. It's like a raw version of that. - Yeah. Scott, what is the deal with Grant Holmes? Is he a reliever? Is he a starter for the Braves? He threw four innings here. He only allowed two runs. I mean, he walked four, had 11 whips on 78 pitches. So it was like kind of a mixed bag, but this was his first start since May 1st. He only threw 115 innings last year. So I guess they could just be playing things pretty cautiously with him. But what I think is more interesting, like whether or not he's a starter or a reliever is the fact that Didi Fwentis came in after him and actually looked really good over three innings. He threw, you know, three no hit innings in this one with three strikeouts. So even as like a piggyback situation, like maybe Fwentis could actually have value in that role if they're going to keep doing this with him and Grant Holmes. - Yeah, I think the problem is Grant Holmes is just walking too many guys and he puts himself in trouble with that. He racks up too many pitches, creates a lot of stress. And so they end up yanking him before he can get a win. And at some point, at some point, they may consider moving him out of the rotation because of that. It may be sooner than not. Particularly since right now, they're kind of going with a modified six man rotation where last time through, they actually skipped Holmes. And they're kind of inserting Martin Perez, wherever he's needed. They're keeping JR, JR richy around. Any of those things could give at any point. And Holmes might be the one who gives since he's not overcoming this walk issue. Everything else looks good. I mean, he's got like a 13% swing, he's strike rate. The strikeouts aren't there. So that's, the strikeouts are there, but the whiffs are. And the sliders always been a good pitch for him and it's still a good pitch for him. And we've seen him have better success than he's shown this year. He allowed just one hit in this start for all the walks he had. So like, there are some positive signs there for Holmes that in deeper leagues might encourage you to hold on. But I think it's to the point now, where we're not even sure how long the braves are gonna hold on. - Yeah. Do you have any interest in Didier Fuentes as kind of like a bulk reliever if this is his role? - It's uncommon for a bulk reliever to matter in fantasy. If their ratios are exceptional, they can in roto leagues, particularly deeper ones, but it's rare for that to happen. I don't think he's on the verge of entering the rotation. Now it could happen suddenly. It happened suddenly for Ben Brown when he was in a similar role for the Cubs. - Yeah. - So enough injuries happen in short order? It could happen. But I think my incentive to roster Fuentes right now is pretty low. I just wonder if Grant Holmes continues to kind of walk too many or be ineffective or if J.R. Richie has like one or two more clunkers like we saw the last time out, is that Didier Fuentes is kind of ticket to getting back in the rotation? It might be. - Yeah, so. - Yeah, but they're already overloaded by one. And at this point, it's theoretical than removing more than one, you know? - There are valid reasons too, as you point out, but they have not seemed motivated to get Fuentes in the rotation. And I don't think things are going poorly enough. I mean, best record at baseball. I don't think things are going poorly enough for them to become motivated all of a sudden. - The updated numbers, by the way, for Didier Fuentes, very small sample, 345-era 102-Wib 10.9K-Pronine, a 267-530-270, three 27 X-Fibies. One 10 stuff plus, these look pretty good. Would you be okay dropping these two pictures? Got Jeffrey Springs, rough outing here against the Cardinals. Over his last five starts, a 703 ERA, a 169 whip. I get people probably picked them up for the two star week. And then Zach Galen at the Rangers, four and two thirds, seven hits, seven runs, two homers allowed. Still 65% rostered. What do you think about dropping Jeffrey Springs in Zach Galen? Yeah, there are not enough signs of life here from Galen. I know he got a bunch of whiffs in his previous star, but even then the results weren't very good. And it seemed like an outlier kind of regressed to the norm here in the follow up outing. So I don't see any reason to hold on to Galen. And Springs, yeah, he was a recommended two-star streamer for this week. The matchups were good. And he had been pretty good. I think he is pretty good. Because for the second straight year, he's thriving on getting a lot of weak contact in the air and throwing strikes at a pretty good rate. And so even though he doesn't miss bats much, if you're excelling on two of the three-- well, that's not even two of the three legs of the fifth triangle. He does a good job of limiting hits and base runners in general. And that can make him look like a competent fantasy option, more often than not. But the other side of the coin is what happened at this start. And I think because the strike at rate is modest, the upside isn't enough that you have to stick with them through thick and thin. Just stream them when the matchups are right and when you have a need. All right, before we get into the leftovers, I did just see this news item. And I wanted to bring it up. Dave Roberts said he approached Show Hey Otoni about not hitting tomorrow before-- well, that's-- they're talking about Wednesday and Thursday. So basically, Otoni is only going to pitch on Wednesday. He's not going to hit. And then he's not going to hit on Thursday either. So I don't know, Scott. This is kind of-- this is kind of worrisome for Otoni, who is-- if he's getting days off when he's not-- when he is pitching, and then maybe some days off around like, after he pitches-- I-- that was how the angels approached him when they first signed him. The he didn't hit on the days he pitched, and he would get like a day off either before or after. And you know what? He wasn't a very good fantasy option back then. It was only once Joe Madden came in and said, you know what, you're going to play every day regardless. That's really when he's broke out as the MVP caliber player we know him to be. So I hope it's just-- I hope it's just a case of-- you're struggling now. Let's put your mind at ease. And when Otoni starts hitting like Otoni again, he's back in the lineup like we're used to seeing. But this is now four out of five-- four out of his last five pitching turns, he has not hit. And now a day after he's not going to hit too, it's-- it's not like-- it's not like you're going to take Otoni out of your lineup in fantasy unless it's a daily league. I mean, obviously, he still must start playing all of that. But your investment in him is so high that any disruption there to the playing time has got to-- got to give you some dyspepsia. I do think it's more of a decision now than it's ever been before using him as a starting pitcher in a weekly lineup league than as a hitter. There will be weeks and months where he's going to go on a month long binge where he hits like 10 or 12 homers and he looks like Shohe Otoni. I'm sure that's going to happen. But he also has looked like a sock young caliber pitcher so far this year. I rank him inside of my top 10 now. It's a quality start every time out over a strikeout for any-- he looks like one of the best pitchers in baseball. So, man, if you have him in a weekly lineup league where you are struggling at pitcher or in pitching categories, you have a decision on your hands now to make, man, because he's been that good. I mean, he's never going to make two starts at a week. Like, never. His starts are spaced pretty far apart. A Rokisosaki two-star pitcher this week. Well, I think Otoni starts gets spaced out more than anyone else in the Dodger's rotation. So, I think even if they lined up for seven games and you're like, OK, just by virtue of them not having a day off this week, they're going to insert a spot starter or whatever. So, yeah, never going to make two starts, I would say. And so, obviously, that limits the ceiling and a given week for pitching. But, yeah, as long as this heading slump continues, it's at least something to think about. All right, some leftovers here on the hitting side. Austin Riley looking much better in May so far. He hit a six-tone run, but so far in the month hitting 316, three homers, one steel, a 920 OPS hitting the ball much harder, also striking out 34% of the time. So, wonder if he's just kind of selling out for power, but it's mostly worked so far for Austin Riley. Bobby Witt also having a big May so far. 348, four homers, two steels, a 1040 OPS. It was only a matter of time until the power started ticking up there. Ildemar Ovarius big game hit his seventh home run, had two hits, but he's gone the other way. He's actually slowed down so far in May, hitting 250, just one home run at 624 OPS, and a massive game from Randy Orozarena, who went four for four with two doubles, his fourth homer, four runs, three RBI. He is over 300 now, four homers, 10 steels, a 54 OPS. He's been really good. It's got anything to add on these four? Orozarena, Ildemar Ovarius, Bobby Witt, Austin Riley. I think Bobby Witt is still as good as I thought coming into the air. In fact, I did a redraft of the first two rounds. Now the season's a quarter over, and I still put Witt III. I still put Otoni second for what it's worth. I was going to say maybe a head of Otoni. But with a bigger gap, noting the bigger gap there between Judge and Otoni now. But yeah, Witt was still third. I think all of his home runs have come in his last 15 games. I remember the stat I wrote last night, and now adjusting for the latest. One of those was an inside the park home run. And also if memories serves, I believe it was the shortest hit inside the park home run on record because it was basically a ground ball. So kind of a cheapy there in terms of classifying hits by their, what they portend moving forward. Like everything in Witt's profile looks the same as it always has. And I think the recent power surge we have inside the park on run aside. But the recent power surge we've seen does portend good things for Bobby Witt. Randy Arosa rain is batting average is going to correct. He's been around while we've seen him run high batting averages for an entire half. And then there's usually a correction that comes in the other half and it ends up being around between 240 and 260. And I would expect that still to be the case for him. But look, he's a must start player like that. So must start player now. It's all great. Vargas has been the biggest surprise this year at the moral Vargas. And the biggest change I could see other than the surface level stats is that polar rate. Totally flipping. It's the inverse of what it's always been. Very bright red and it's working for him as somebody with great contact skills. He's always had great contact skills and just that contact is going in the most perfect direction to maximize impact. There's going to be some correction, but I think you start him until he gives you a good reason to set him. All right. Moving on to the pitching leftovers will warrant fish one out short of a quality start at the Orioles five and two thirds, two runs with six strikeouts there fastball Freddie Peralta. He was a really lean on that fastball in this one. Six innings to run seven strikeouts against the Tigers. Yuri Perez better results at the twins six innings three runs. H strikeouts still walk three. Give up another home run. He's now allowed eight home runs this season. I do have a note here from Chris that Yuri threw a sinker for the first time in this one and it was not good. Seven percent CSW on 14 of them and just a 14 percent zone rate. Try and some things, but not a great pitch there so far for Yuri Perez. And then Yoshi nobu Yamamoto a rough outing against the Giants six in a third five runs allowed a career high three homeers allowed in the start. Two of them to Eric Haas like what? Where did that come from? Scott anything on Yamamoto, Yuri Perez, fastball Freddie Peralta and Will Warren? Yeah, I don't really know what to make of the Peralta thing how much he's been leaning on the fastball because the results haven't really changed. And they've been a little underwhelming not enough to take him out of my start status, but he's just kind of been. It took him taking a little step back from his career best season as was to be expected. the pitch selection is weird. It hasn't really changed the results. And so maybe it's not even worth commenting on at this point. I don't know. Perez has been frustrating to many walks for a guy who gives up as many home runs as he does. That is a toxic combination. Like I referred to it earlier. I didn't complete the thought, but I will complete it in this case. I think if you excel at, this is long been a theory of mine. If you excel at two of the three legs of the fifth triangle, meaning home run avoidance strikeouts walks. If you excel at two of the three, you're probably gonna be a pretty good pitcher. Obviously if you do all three or, you know, ace level, but if you two of the three are probably gonna be pretty good. And right now Perez is only excelling at one of the three, which is the strikeouts, the misbaths. And it's not working for him. And we've seen better in the past. Obviously, I think there's better to come, but he's not must start right now clearly. Mm hmm. All right, moving on to the call to the bullpen for the Guardians, Kate Smith got the final four outs for his 12th save for the pirates. Gregory Soto got the ninth with a three run lead. He did allow a run, but he picked up his fourth save. He has the last three saves for the pirates and just kind of feels like it's his job to lose right now. For the Phillies, Yawan DeRan allowed two base runners, but struck out two for his sixth save for the Atlanta Braves, Rice Eleglacius picked up his seventh save. For the White Soxer, Anthony Dominguez pitching the eighth inning in this game with the game tied, facing eight, nine and one in the Royals lineup. He tossed a clean inning. The White Sox took a one run lead and it was let the Brian Hudson who then picked up the save. I wouldn't read into it. I just think Dominguez pitching in a big spot with the game tied the any prior. For the Brewers, Abner, A rebate got the ninth with a two run lead. He walked one, but picked up his fourth save. Trevor McGill pitched the eighth and gave up a run. So, and I think he gave up a run his last outing as well. So, feels like we're getting a little bit more security there with Abner, A rebate. For the raise, Brian Baker was unavailable. It was Garrett Clevenger who got the 10th inning with a two run lead. He allowed the Manfred Man to score, but he picked up his first save of the season. For the Cardinals, Riley O'Brien picked up his 12th save for the Rangers Jacob Latz picked up his fifth save and just looks like the guy for the Rangers right now. He's 61% roster. He's out there in some shallower leagues. He's SPN RP eligible for, you know, there's some people who play in leagues where like head to point leagues where an RP, no starting pitcher who gets like saves and things. It's more valuable. So, Jacob Latz is one of those. And then for not only does he have five saves, he has each of the Rangers last five saves. Yep. And then for the Giants, Caleb Killian came on with two outs in the eighth, bases loaded a four run lead. He got Andy Pahez to line out. And then he stayed on for the ninth inning where he tossed a clean inning to pick up his second save. 16% rostered starting to look like the guy do not mess this up Tony Vittello. The genius Tony Vittello. Yeah, I agree that Caleb Killian, the way he's been handled recently, would suggest he's the closer, only the two saves because the Giants only have so many save opportunities. But yeah, don't really trust Vittello yet to stick with anyone pitcher. This has been brought up before. But Caleb Killian's throwing his fast ball three miles per hour harder this year. So he is more of a bullpened force than we've ever known him to be before. And so that adds to the enthusiasm, that adds to reason to believe he's, he could actually hold up as the closer. But you know, walking a lot of guys too and then he's got Vittello as a manager. So not a sure thing. All right, to stream or not to stream on Wednesday, we have Reed Depmer's at the Guardians, Griffin Jacks at the Blue Jays, Christian Scott home against the Tigers, JR Richie against the Cubs, Noah Schultz against the Royals, Ryan Nelson at the Rangers, Bryce Miller in his season debut at the Ash Rose, Matthew Libertor at the Athletics and JT Ginn against the Cardinals. - So I would be okay. Well, I'd actually be more than okay with Ryan Nelson at the Rangers. I think everybody should start him there. I feel pretty good about Reed Depmer's at Cleveland because I like that matchup. And then my third choice is Noah Schultz against the Royals again, mostly because of the matchup. - Yeah, I like Depmer Schultz and Nelson. I could see Christian Scott against the Tigers being okay too. He's looked much better at the last two outings. On Thursday, we have Chase Dolander at the Pirates, Carmen Majinsky against the Rockies in Pittsburgh, Robbie snowing at the Twins, Griffin Canning at the Brewers, Luis Castillo at the Ash Rose, Mike Burles against the Mariners, Michael McGreevy at the Athletics, Jacob Lopez against the Cardinals and Ben Brown at the Atlanta Braves. - So it's frustrated with Dolander as I'm sure a lot of people are because right about the point we said, "Okay, we just got to begin starting this guy to heck with the CR on his hat." And as soon as that happens, he has, I think it's two worst appearances of the year. - It was always going to happen that way, sorry. - He is on the road. - I think he's the clear top choice here. - I mean, scan through the list again, yeah. Yeah, I think I got to say Dolander above all the others at Pittsburgh, but it is frustrating. Robbie snowing at Minnesota, I'd be okay with, even with all the walks last time and then Mike Burles against the Mariners, he seems to be trending the right direction, the Mariners are pretty good matchup. - Yeah, I think both Wednesday and Thursday like the streamers pretty well. - Yeah, the ones I chose. - I agree with Dolander, I'm good with snowing. I think Carmen Maginski against the Rockies in Pittsburgh, it's fine. And then, yeah, I don't know, the Mariners kind of hit righties. Burles has looked a little bit better. Yeah, I would take Maginski over Burles. I'm interested to see what Ben Brown does at the Braves, but I would not use him there. I would like to watch it and see what it does. - We are gonna wrap there for Scott. I am Frank, thanks as always for tuning in to Fantasy Baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye. (upbeat music) (dramatic music) - Paramount podcasts.