Bad Early Picks & Good Late Picks w/ Rob DiPietro

Welcome to the Roto Wire Fantasy baseball podcast. I'm your host James Anderson and I got my good buddy, Rob D. Pietro with me today. And we're going to have a fun show. We're going to talk specifically about players. We're each going to have a few players we think are going in the top 200 players that are going in the top 200 that we think are bad picks. And then we've also got a handful of players that are going in the final five rounds are getting undrafted in draft and holds that we think are great picks. So we're going to be talking specific players, but I think we'll we'll get into some strategy stuff while we're talking about those players. But Rob, first, how are you doing, man? How many drafts have you done? How many drafts are you currently in? Oh boy, I'm doing wonderful James as always is on honor to be on the Roto Wire pod and with you, good friend of mine. Yeah, draft season is fully kicking in. I got up to a slower start than usual. I mean, in October, November and December, I kind of slammed on the gas a little bit and find myself in position. Sometimes I don't like to be in like three current drafts right now. I got one DC that's in round 36. Another DC that's in round 18. And I am in the middle of round 15 of the first NFPC online championship of the season. So how to get my brain into 12 team fab mode and let me tell you James, it was, I need a good day on on finding that the lineation of of when everyone becomes equal in in the draft and, you know, trying to. It's such a different in DC. There's all these great middle and fielders that you could pick late and then in OCD like these guys going to be off my team relatively soon and you just got to get into that whole brain. So it's been fun challenging, but I'm happy to be in the first one of the year. Yeah, very opposite approaches there with the DC versus the OC. So impressive that you're multitasking those right now. I've just done I'm on I'm in the middle. Well, I'm towards the end of my third DC of the season. So I've done even fewer than you, but I've done enough prep to have lots of players. So I wanted to bring up for our players that we think are great values late. I've got an endless amount of those guys. I thought it was more challenging to come up with. Players going in the top 200 that I thought were bad picks. Just because I think it's just it's sharp drafting season like there's plenty of guys going in the top 200 where like I'm probably not going to take that player. Taking guys where I'm going to actually make arguments for why they're going like a few rounds too early. I found that to be much more challenging than coming up with the guys that I love late. 100% and you know, I have some clear guide. They just dislike, but and then other guys stems from just the flow of the draft, you know, and then when I find the pockets that I find are comparable and in later spots. Certain guys just become the this profile is heavily available later and that becomes the I think he's in the wrong spot. And it may not be even the player itself, you know, it's just the way the ADP unfolds. Yeah, it's kind of like I'm almost kind of using like a babs sort of logic person. I think some of these early takes are bad exactly like you said. Like it's sort of more about the position and the stats. I think I'm getting players at that same position that might give similar stats that are just going later for whatever reason. That often just kind of becomes a justification for like I'm not going to take this guy here. Why would I take this guy here when I can get this guy. You know, you runs later. So Rob, why don't you start it up? You want you? Oh boy. The top 200 that you think is a bad pick and obviously, you know, I'm sure we've got friends listening and very smart players listening who probably drafted some of the players were about to crap all over but go ahead. So the first guy I'm going to mention is Trevor McGill pick 102 right now in the last 15 DCs and there's no doubting that he the very skilled believer and this is not a anti Trevor McGill stance but, you know, 51 saves over the last two seasons. But the brewers are known to move away from these kinds of situations and players that did it with Haydor and Devon Williams. You know, getting something for a player maybe at its peak. Pre-free agency. So that a couple of RBS. So we've been heavily involved per the Milwaukee beat writers and trade talks from teams that I think you see them developing a superpaneist. You know, you have the Yankees, the Mets. And while I think he can get traded and still be a closer option, I think that cloud of that hanging over is just too much is a lot of smoke there. He's also never thrown more than 47 in a season. We know the injury history is there. And with that comes a very capable closer and Avenue Rebay who got more leverage as the season went on. And then I think the tipping point for me as I dug into the season and I was like, Man, you rebay going to your statement about the drafting public being super sharp like, Man, you rebay it got a very high ADP. And then when I dug into some of the end of season, you said, I know McGill came back from an injury. But the playing off usage was pretty stark to me where like McGill was one of their lowest leverage relievers with you rebay being high leverage getting the lone team save. And then when I broke it down, I went to each game box score and you know, Gil was used as an opener in the game that you rebay saved. He also worked versus the Cubs in the fifth inning of a 6-0 loss. And then versus the Dodgers, he worked the eighth inning in game one and you rebay took over the ninth. And then in game two kind of rebay work the sixth and seventh, but he faced really heavy strong pocket of IDs. And McGill never really got a chance to operate in high leverage. I don't know if that's too big of a rabbit hole, but I find like you when you really try to see managerial tendencies and I just see them viewing Avenue rebay as a perfectly capable closer. And if they can get something for Trevor McGill, I think they are going to highly be highly motivated to do it. So for his ADP, I think is there's a little too rich for me right now. Yeah, and I agree with the call. You know, I think he the innings thing. I'm glad you mentioned that never thrown 50 innings. I don't think you can project them for 50 innings and like you said, go and just just outside the top 100 in recent DCs Trevor McGill. I will say like that I agree with you. And I think that the main takeaway for me from like that postseason usage is just just they trust you rebay in the role. But I in that game where he was the opener against the Cubs McGill. That was like the highest leverage part of that game because every other. Righty that they threw out there Michael Bush was homering off in the first inning and McGill was the first righty they were able to start in that series who who bush didn't take yard in the first inning. So like that was like they used him just to shut down to make the Cubs start bush and then to shut them down that first inning. But I definitely agree with your point that you rebay. You know, I mean, I think I would probably take your rebay over McGill straight up in a DC right now. And then you're getting more innings from your rebay and I think like there's you just need the McGill trader the McGill injury or maybe even none of the above and he could still get the saves your rebate could still get the saves. Whereas McGill you need to think more things to kind of work out for him to be the guy closing games. Even if he gets traded like he might not be the closer like he said and even if he sticks around, you might not be the closer so. I actually picked up new rebay before McGill's off the board. I picked them in a 12th round. It was my second closer because I don't want to spend trying to not spend too much capital there. I feel like there's some pocket to grab some good guys to start the season with saves and then you know an O C you can really filter through that as the season goes along. And some leads it's a lot of agents some leads it isn't. But I just thought like you eBay the perfect kind of guy to take right now because if McGill shoot you know does get traded. I would think you eBay shoots up and to inside the 100 so I thought you eBay is a perfect online championship fat week kind of guy to you know if I don't hit on my fifth things on pick then I can move on from it. Yeah I love that pick. I mean you showed me your board from that O C it's just so so fun to be able to put together teams that are that loaded. So much fun. So much fun. Damn. They have to do any DCs and focusing so much on that and that's the thing so much of this part of the season. You know I'm spending so much time on on these this this lower half of ADP guys who are going to make a marginal input to your team and then to switch into Fab brain where you know it's just I'm like all right now I got to focus more on these on the good players. Speaking of good players my first nomination is Raphael Devers going in the fourth round on average in DCs. ADP of like 56 over the last 18 DCs, Raphael Devers, going like few picks behind Maddleson. I would take Maddleson over him pretty easily, but I'm generally probably not taking the first basement in the fourth round there. I think, if you want a middling average with 30 homers in San Francisco, I'd rather take William Domes four rounds later. And I think it's just like it's just the worst kind of investment on Devers here because you're using an early pick on a player at a deep position who doesn't dominate any tough to find category or excel across the board. I'm kind of viewing him as a middling average who's gonna be great in power runs our BI, but he's not gonna be a 40 homer guy. Like he's not gonna carry you in power. There hasn't been a San Francisco giant to hit 35 homers in the season since Barry Bonds. I would honestly take Freddie Freeman straight up over Devers, I would take Josh and Ailer straight up over Devers, and I think it's just a in misprice player based on where he typically would go, like a healthy Raphael Devers, typically would go like in this range, but I just think people aren't downgrading the move enough and aren't kind of downgrading some slight skills to climb enough. - Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. And when we, I did a pod with Dustin McCormick in the season, and we talked about steamer projections that were kind of surprising to us. And Dustin is a huge Raphael Devers guy. And when he saw the projection, he was kind of like, how can they project him for a 24-hour average? But prior to last season, it was just consistently 270 and above. And I guess you just have to, I can say you have to adjust for that part despite a career high barrel, despite an EV 90 that's still so strong and ability to hit the ball opposite field with power, it doesn't look like he can come down in homers and the batting average, as the K percentage keeps rising as well. So I like that call out. I haven't touched on Raphael Devers all season long. And he used, oh, he'd been a guy in the third round that I was interested in. When you looked at the power kind of bat with Austin Ryeway and man, how they have fallen in a couple of seasons, it's pretty wild, you know? - Yeah, absolutely. To me, it's like Devers, the hitter, the slugger, like great player, it's just like building a DC roster, I think it's just not a move from me, I don't think in the fourth round there. - Yeah, I like that call. - Who's the next guy you wanna shout out? - You know, this one is always easy for me every single season, it might be a little bit of a cop out, but Onil Cruz, gonna pick 96. I'm just, I'm not a fan of the actual person and I just don't think his skill set is, I know it's fantasy friendly because he gets us the home run stone base juice, but there's just so many things that are just not had mobile traits for him, he had an 18WRT plus for us left these. Over the last two months of the season, he batted 150, with a 35% K-rate, he can't hit Spani, he's still proven that, he's got this tall guy syndrome where that path is just consistently leading to him hitting the ball hard, but into the ground a lot. He also suffered a huge drop against four seamers, like he crushed it in 2020 or in last year, he just couldn't catch up to the ball, it was just awful numbers all the way around. And I've been starting to look at this metric called Heart Hit Launch, I heard Lance Frostowski bring it up in one of his pods and it's pretty good, it's just taking your balls that are heart hit over 95 and looking at the launch angle of them. Nearly got it was just 14%, he's that nine and a half, sorry, 14 degrees, he's that nine and a half degrees. So it's just when he does left it, he has to, he has to lift and also be perfect with the launch to get into his power. And the raw power is there, but he's just, I don't see the ability to consistently get into it. The pull air is 13% league averages, 16.7. And I actually developed another metric that I added to my leaderboard and I took the percentage of bad ball events that are both heart hit and or air pulled and he's like 3% of the low league average. So even when he does get a chance to pull it in the air, he's not really taking advantage of it. So there's just the batting average drain, the possibility that he completely doesn't play versus left these is very much there for me. And I'm just completely, he's just completely off my radar. - Yeah, I mean, you and I are in too much agreement on the crews there. I've never rostored him. I don't think I've rostored him in any league ever. Honestly, if I did rostrum, it might have been when he was a prospect with the Dodgers way back in the day and a dynasty. But he's also, he's never exceeded 75 runs. He's never exceeded 76 RBI. And the platoon aspect, the fact that even if he doesn't sit against lefties, the fact that he's that bad against lefties. - Right. - Yeah, it's ugly. - It's weird because he's like, crews is probably of the past like two years, I would say, the player who gets drafted the highest and most frequently by managers that I really respect, but also who I just have zero interest in. So there's kind of like a, like why is Steve Weimer and like Mark Winoker like buying this guy and like I just zero interest in him. I think it's just like a projection aspect to the, just you see those, the bulk steels there with the homers and it can be a useful roster piece, like especially, you know, like if you're putting together just a an absolutely dominant DC roster, like, you know, I bet like Steve Weimer could draft on Neil Cruz and only use him for half the season. And like, win and over all by like doing that, but like it's just, it's just a weird, like the floor with the batting average, I just hate it so much. - Yeah, yeah, and perfect. I mean, I think you're right. I think it comes with the fact that, you know, you plug him into a calculator or SGP and yeah, what he provides is just so, is fantasy friendly from two categories that we often, you know, may have trouble to fill. But I don't think 20 home runs is like, that's not moving the needle and I'll find some strong bases elsewhere. - Okay, so Neil Cruz on average going around, pick 94 in DCs, we're not interested. The next guy I wanna bring up is Nualvi Marte going at pick 135 on average in the past, like 18 DCs. I think, look, I'm not like, one, I'm not like pound the table confident in this pick because Marte has definitely flashed like he's had, you know, month long stretches where he would, he would certainly pay off this ADP. I don't know if it's like the OF3B thing that's kind of pushing him up, but I think third base is loaded in like the 200 range so I wouldn't be putting like a round premium on just that that OF3B combo from Marte. He's a really bad defender on a team that has several really bad defenders who are probably better than him. So like I think they're just gonna play Marte in the outfield, but I think he's gonna be bad out there and his approach at times is just dreadful. So like he could go slumping for a few weeks and just lose playing time because he's not gonna be providing any value in the field. And I also think the fact that roster resource has in penciled in as the Reds number two hitter and everyday player in Great American is contributing to that ADP sticking in the top 150. I also think it's like slightly possible that just the fact that the two early meatballs draft, like people look at it and like Mike Mager, like one of the best players out there takes Noelle V marte pretty high in that and then he sucks the rest of the season. Like that might have slightly contributed to his ADP too, but like I look at like even in sort of a 90th percent outcome for Marte, like I think Jason Dominguez is 90th percent of outcomes even better. And he's gone like 100 picks later or 80s later. So it's just like you're chasing that power and speed, but like Noelle V marte isn't gonna steal 35 bases. Like you're kind of hoping for like 25 homers, 18, 20 steals, something like that, which would be great if he does it, but there's other players that go later, like I think Brent and Doyle I would rather have than Noelle V marte. There's just, I mean there's honestly a handful of volunteers who go in the rounds after him. Go Adele! goes after him in some leagues. Like that's an easy call. So yeah, I just, I'm not super like pound the table saying like don't draft Novi Marte, but I think he's just overpriced by a couple rounds. - Yeah, he has some some pretty crazy reverse splits last year too with a 55 WRC plus 25 WRC left these versus a 119 WRC plus versus VITs and a 348 WRC. And you know him proving that he can handle VIT like it helps them too, but like you said, the defensive value kind of hurts him a little bit, you know, and like you said, the last two months of the season when you just have a 28% K rate, you know, I'm just wondering how the swing decisions, you know, come back because just like using Robert or C the metric, like a catch all swing decision, you're 65% talent in 2024 and last year, you went down to 30% talent. It came a lot through being passive in the zone. So I wonder how that settled in because I do think that's a real good marker to, you know, when you hit the ball decently hard and you have some good contacts, it feels like Marta, if you could just improve that a little bit, it just helps you overall quality. But yeah, I kind of agree with you as what you're saying. Like I haven't drafted him, but I'm also not completely confident that me not drafting him is the right decision either. So yeah, I totally get that. - I was looking for like other options 'cause like I definitely could see no one will be marta having a great year in this living stupid, but just for the way I would put together a DC roster, I just think he's a little misprice right now. - Yeah, absolutely. - All right, who's your next guy? Last guy. - Last guy that I just don't like where he's going is Jackson Holiday of the Baltimore Orioles. And this is mostly a combination, pick 142 over the last 15 DCs. It's high as 126. And I have nothing against Jackson Holiday, the baseball player, I think, you know, he just turned 22, he's still so young. I think we saw last year, he had some blasters of what he might be able to do. I just think as the player, I don't know if the next step is this year. And I think if he's just banking on what he did last year, we've already projected for 16 home or 17 home bases, 250 average. There's just, like we mentioned before, the profile is so much available later on. You know, you can get a guy like Otto Lopez a hundred picks later. And then you have all these, you know, Glebertora's Luis Garcia, Jorge Polanco, Marcus Simeon, you know, they have Brendan Donovan. There's so many capable second-based guys that can come pretty close to either their home run still on bases or the solid batting average. And I just, for that reason, I look at that price and I say he should be more toward where these players are than where he is at 142. So again, it's not really a knock on him. It is a little bit because I don't know if there's a next step this year, but it's just the profile is so much available later on that. I mean, it's too early for me. Yeah, I agree with you. I went on bench with Bubba yesterday and kind of said the same thing. Like I think also just the, he's not guaranteed to lead off and he's not guaranteed to play against lefties. And more good players, the Orioles bring in the more legbite is that he doesn't hit the top third of that order. And he has this big-time prospect pedigree. And I think people just associate that with like, well, one of these years it's going to click. And like, I'm going to have my lottery ticket. But you're not getting a major discount on him. And there isn't like that smoking gun under the hood of like, oh man, he's about to break out. Like look out in 2026. Like it's kind of just like, he's a big-time prospect. He's a pretty good hitter for his age and like the power maybe just shows up. Like that's kind of what you're hoping on. But yeah, I just think he's, it's the name values of doing a lot of the work. Oh, maybe he's going to like lead off in front of all these guys. It's probably doing some of the work there. But I haven't drafted holiday. - Like you said, I think the first lefty thing is very valid. Last year, about a 200 or a 62 WRC plus and a 572 lefty. He still started 75% of the time, versus them. But I think you could definitely see, as you mentioned, so perfectly, they bring in better like good players. And I have a guy like Jeremiah Jackson who might be able to cover versus a lefty. You just wonder if he can even match that total that he did last year. On the flip side, it's like if you're the Orioles, you probably want to develop him as much as you can, versus a lefty. But at some point when you're winning games, or you're trying to stay in a race, I think you have to make those decisions. - Right. I mean, they're choosing not to develop Kobe Mayo and the big leagues to start 2026. So, perfect. Yeah, perfect. - Okay, so Rob, I hope I don't offend you with my last nomination here is Jonathan Oronda. I know Slida on anything Oronda did in 2025, but he was a big time win where he was going last year. Right now, Oronda has a recent ADP of like 176 in these DCs. So he's the lowest drafted player that we'll discuss for these going too high. Players and Rob might even disagree with me on Oronda. But I just think, I think there's a decent likelihood that like he sits against most lefties, even though there isn't like an obvious puttune partner for him on the roster, per se. They have a few guys that they're going to want to sit against lefties and they only got a couple righty guys projected to make the roster, but it just strikes me that a team like Tampa Bay giving a player like Oronda full time work at the bottom of the defensive spectrum. I just don't really see it happening with him. I also look at, like so Oronda has a career 307 slug against lefties was a bit better last year. So like there is a chance that he's just getting better against lefties and that they'd rather puttune the outfielders and puttune the first baseman. But I also look at like Alec Burleson going two rounds later, South Stewart going four rounds later. Like he's, Oronda's not the last high average first baseman on the board and I just think he's, I think he's as likely if not more likely than Burleson and Stewart to sit against lefties. Also obviously getting the park downgrade, you know, was pretty lucky on Balls and Play last year. Very good hitter, very talented hitter. I just think he's going like three rounds too high. - Yeah, that's a good call. And I don't take any offense to that. I love Jonathan Arranda. I think you have him on most of my DC's last season, which is really good for the draft cost for sure. And like you said, he didn't make gains versus lefties like I like also to also look at the 1111 WRC plus and 98 point appearances. He only started 42% of the time versus lefties according to Baseball HQs in the forecast there. And yeah, I think that definitely a number that I think you can save to say it will be the starting point next year. And like you said, if he is truly making gains for us lefties, maybe they give him more, they are going to have a host of outfielders to maximize through their spots as well. But I get it. Yeah, it's not, I think something that I thought made sense, 80 P Ys when it first started and we first got 80 P. And I've been wanting him to be in that burrows in area as well. 'Cause I think that's where he mostly he belongs. It's just, it's so funny because it's interesting using like that Babs like drafting. And you know, for anyone I don't know, Babs is something around Jam, but developed it was basically formed as a Mayberry method at Baseball HQ. And then he made it. And it's just, it's just snapshotting skills and similar skill sets in less of a projection form. And it's interesting to find him in a bucket with like, Ivan Herrera, Tyler Stodesterm and Vladimir Guerrero and just like being okay in the power of the department and also having strong batting average qualities. And I think that's where Ronda can really help you. And he definitely, like his numbers are definitely nothing to sneeze at. But yeah, I've had hard problem pressing a button at the 150 range for me. It's just been a little tough. And I'm sad, I'm sad about that a little bit. (laughs) - Yeah, and again, like we're done talking about the guys we think are going too high. But I think for most of these guys, like it's, we're only kind of quibbling with about 25 to 30 spots at like ADP, like definitely not saying if you took any of these guys, it's like a bad pick in your team's dude. - Right. - Just more of like, we're, with the market this sharp, you have to just be splitting hairs about like, I think this guy's going around too early. This guy's going two rounds too early. Like that's a big deal when the markets this tight. So, totally agree. - All right, Rob, this is gonna be more fun, I think, for you and I. Nothing more fun than just stacking that queue. When you got about 10 rounds, eight rounds to go in the DC and you're, You're just like, man, I want all these guys. I've only got like seven spots left, six spots left, five spots left. There's a bunch of guys I still want out there. So we're gonna be talking about five players or so each that we really like in the final five rounds of a DC. And I made you go first last time. I'll go first this time. - Can I ask you a quick question though, James? - For a quick about your overall DC strategy. Does this player pool that you develop shape? Obviously how you're picking beforehand because there's nothing like getting to a guy in these rounds and you're like, but I already have a living outfielders and do I need this guy? And I think you kind of have to foresee that and draft accordingly, you know? - Yeah, no, absolutely. You have to, and you've got to be kind of thinking about that in rounds like 30 through 40, 30 through 45, especially. If I fill up this infield position, like I pick 34 or with my 34th pick or whatever, that takes this player off the table for me later who I think is like an amazing value. Do I wanna leave this DC with like five third baseman just 'cause I think they're all awesome values. Like, you know, I think you definitely, you don't wanna be benching too many good hitters during the season. - Yeah, like right. - Yeah, I think you have to definitely, I think it's really helpful to figure out which positions you like late, right? And then buy that to sort of use as a tie breaker for those picture making like in the 30, in the 30 through 40 round. - Yep, absolutely. Cool, got it. - So. - Yeah, the first player I wanna bring up is a guy where I don't even think it's like a sexy breakout. I think it's more of just this position dries up so fast and I think this guy is just the best of the late options and it's Andrew Monasterio with the Brewers. - And. - Dotton me, I gotta cross off my list now, James. - No, that's good. - They look good more than five, but nice one. Yeah, I love it. I love it. Go ahead, take it away. - Okay. - All right, all right. Well, so basically, shortstop to me, after Pick 500 is just an utter wasteland of just terrible options and like I'm including, like I'm assuming, you know, like Emerson's off the board, Nassim Nunez is off the board. So we're talking about like the Jet Williams, Thomas the JC Sebastian Walcott, kind of Faleffa, Kaelin Cole Pepper, like this range of guys where there's a chance you just get absolutely nothing from the pick. And I think you just, you want bodies, right? Like you want a guy where if you deal with bad injury, look at shortstop, you at least have a warm body, you can plug in there, who's gonna provide some sort of value for you while you're short-handed. And I think Monasterio defensively is very capable of shortstop. He's gonna get starts, you know, I think he starts at least once a week, basically, from the get-go. And I think Joey Ortiz is definitely a much better defensive shortstop. I keep, that's his bread and butter is the glove, but Ortiz can be streaky enough at the plate to where Monasterio maybe gets into sort of a 50-50 time share at times when Ortiz is slumping and then he's playing every day if Ortiz is hurt. And Monasterio also, just from a skill standpoint, is kind of interesting. He had a 27.7% air pole percentage last year. He had a career high 110 max EV. So just, you know, I think there's a chance that, like if he was playing every day, like there would be a chance he could hit 20 homers. So you're definitely not getting 20 homers out of Monasterio, but like he has a little bit of pop in the bat. He's got the right plan of attack to maximize that pop. So it's just, it's more about how bad the position is and how he just kind of stands out to me in that crowd as like a usable piece. - Love it. - Absolutely. When I first set up my leaderboards in early indices and then obviously due to my, my famous name as the pole hitter, it's something I really like to do a lot of research on on Popeye Balls and Pope Barrels. And when he's, do the air pole percentage, when I did the improvements from year to year, like, hoof, and then diving into him, yeah, just really saw like an opportunity to take a shot and a guy like 99% out of sweet spot. And I think I'm with bat speed, but just more of getting to better angles to the ball. His ideal attack angle with the highest of his career. And I think the biggest thing James is this. For me, when I look at the depth chart and kind of find these guys, like you said, those late short tops are gross. I just see like their three, their second baseman, third baseman, shortstop were completely healthy last year. And Taurang, Durban and Norti, they all got over 500 played appearances. And if any of them does miss time this year, if you want to play that game, like someone's do for an injury here, Monasterio can pop in and be a solid ad to the team. I got him on a couple teams so far, and I love that call. - Yeah, I ended up reaching for him ahead of the final five rounds in my current DC, just because a friend of the pod did the same in my second DC and I didn't get him. So, there you go. Now I'm chasing him up the board, but hopefully you can still kind of get him at least after round 40, I think. - Yeah, love it, love it. Who you wanna go with? - Oh, I think I'm gonna start with my favorite target, late round spec source and his name is Hunter Harvey, still a free agent. And last year was a little bit snake bitten by the injury bug, bitten through a ton of innings, but Aben and his 10 innings, he showed his usual 20 plus percent K minus walk, heavy swing and mess. And from 2023 to 2024, he was 20th overall on saves but hold with 58, and that includes eight, eighth in hold overall. So his ability of pitching high leverage is there. His last 160 innings, the 3070 RRA, 109 whip, 21% came on his walk, 308 Sierra, he's got great control, gets chase, his zone miss rate is really good on his four steamers, 235, the league average is 18. I mean, his career to versus left DC handles, left these very well. So, and as I look across some of the free agents that are still left to be signed, that can close out games and some team that I think can still use, if not a clear, closer, like I don't think he's gonna be that guy that like we want him to be our closer, but I think he's very able to be someone who competes in a pen that's just maybe a little bit unsettled, like to like to say the Texas Rangers or the San Francisco Giants. Still think there's opportunity for him there, and I think that he's shown that he can absolutely handle it. And he also had a very wide arsenal, and I know this sounds crazy because of the injury history, but he can be one of these guys that a team might get crazy and try to develop into a starter, because he just has a really wide, good arsenal and he can use it to both left these in writing. So, I don't prefer him in that role, but I'm just saying, I think there's a path there of some team watch that's explored, but I think he can be in the back end of a bullpen picking up 10 saves, like he did with Washington in 2023. And that's what I hope for him, and as I continue to draft them. And I've been bumping him up in path to 40, like earlier than 45 to 50, because I just love him and I want him. - I love it. I've been a big Harvey Finn for a while. I mean, dating back to when he was a starting pitching prospect with the Orioles, like I mean, he was one of the absolute blue chip starting pitching prospects way back in the day. - Yeah. - I first started doing this, and I remember, like just I was, I just always assumed he was gonna be the nationals closer to the future, just didn't really work out that way. Like, you know, injuries have kind of always sort of been swirling around him and limiting his workload here and there, but I absolutely love the call out. And, you know, there's just, there's enough unsettled bullpens out there, and few enough legit closures still on the market that, you know, who knows? Like, he could, there's a few spots where he could sign and all the sudden he's going 15 rounds earlier. - Yeah, I, you know, Arizona, you know, it's another team that has a lot of uncertainty. And even the nationals, you know, I mean, getting rid of Ferrer, and he can reunion with them would be pretty interesting. So there's some spots he can go to for sure. - And the athletics, like they, they spent money last year on the bullpen, they might do it again. - Okay, my next call here is, probably my favorite of these, these, well, maybe not. Actually, I'm gonna, I'm gonna go with a picture here. My favorite picture of these call outs is Carmen Blitzinski of the pirates. He's going the highest of the guys I'm gonna shout out. He's going kind of in like the 46th round on average recently. so he barely qualifies, but. But Zinski was a starting pitching prospect. He was working as a reliever for the pirates of late. But starting in July last year, he adds the curve ball to his mix and expands his mix from four to five. So he's throwing two fastballs, split or slider curve. And he's working two plus innings in most of his starts from, or most of his appearances from July on. And in that span, he has a 1-8-9 ERA, a 2-5, a 2-6-4, X-5, a 22.6 K minus wall, 56% ground ball rate, 099 width, and 47 and 2-3-z innings for Mladzinski. And he doesn't need to get stretched out or get any saves for him to just be a screaming value. If he just reprises his role from last year. But I would stretch him out. I think he's got number three starter upside, like as early as this year. He just didn't show any real weaknesses down the stretch last year. So lots of possibilities from Mladzinski. I know the pirates have just a ton of starting pitching depth that I love. But I just think Mladzinski, the skills, which are so dominant and over a large enough sample, I just think there's a lot of ways this could pay off. Yeah, love that call. Got him with Zinski already. And I think if you even try to project a little bit of a mid-season, Dennis Santana trade, as I think we all-- try to look at those situations for a draft champion. And behind it, I just don't see Isaac Matten, or Justin Lawrence, or Gregory Soto. And they got rid of Colin Holderman. It was always supposed to be like that next guy, Mladzinski, like you said, with really awesome down the stretch and can put up good believer numbers. And I think that's honestly, James, there's so many of these guys that go in this part of the draft. Even if you don't project a whole bunch of saves or any, they're just useful. Picture number nine that you could throw into your lineup in a long DC season. It's going to be some point to where if you're fighting for ratios and you don't want to throw in a two-start of Kyle Gibson out there. Those kind of things, those decisions don't have to make down the road. We come a lot easier when you could plug in a good believer who won't mess things up for you. Yeah. And since you listed some guys in that bullpen, I'll throw out, like, if we did, like, 70 round or 60 round draft in holes, I would have a ton of Kyle Nicholas. But-- Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Stuff monster, like, just ball percentage-wise, is a fix away from being a very, very viable trust movie. Because he was the guy that I wrote down in the beginning of the season with Ladzinski, as-- if they don't make any move, these two guys are possible guys. But I want to say safer in that, like you said, if you have to plug in a Ladzinski, you could think trust a little bit that the ratios won't get completely destroyed. All right. Who's your next guest? So it might be a little bit of a crazy one, given how his season ended. But I think when you just look at the lens of how deep Michael Conforto is going and drafts, it's just pretty interesting. To me, he hasn't gone over 488 played appearances in his last four healthy seasons since 2020. And but in those seasons, you have to get a whole more of the-- probably played appearances, that is just good enough. But again, in these late DCs, where you're just trying to strike gold, then a guy that you could throw in Friday to Sunday when some outfielders are down, I think Conforto can still be viable. I know he's still without a team. And last year, I think the memory of him on the Dodgers was very dim. Considering came from a good 112WRC plus with the giants, where he came back from the shoulder injury a little stronger in his second season. But there's still a 10% bow right here from even last year in his first career. The K-Rate's still manageable, 25%. And it's crazy because he's been pretty awful versus lefties his whole career. But the last two seasons have been actually very strong. And I think a lot of people just see him as a strong cider. But his numbers last year versus lefties were-- and I know it's a small sample. But over the last two seasons, about 200 played appearances of him being pretty good. So he still got strong EV90s. He still makes very strong swing decisions. So again, it's not a sexy pick. It's not a prospect pick that can erupt. But I think it's a guy that you could pop into your lineup. Especially if he goes to a team that's just kind of is a cheap sign. And they just-- I'm out there, and he plays a bunch. I don't think you can go very wrong with filling out your outfield with Michael Concordo. Yeah, I like that call a lot. I have no idea why. Why do people like Max Kepler in the mid-30 rounds? And Michael Concordo-- Yeah, I don't think I know. I know. Well, it'd be different if Kepler had a team. But they both don't. So I know the uncertainty there. And it's just funny because I think what you mentioned earlier-- once you start getting ADP, it's a lot of guys stick around to where they've been. So if you just got taken at 600 and 700 in the first three, the first five, it's not going to be so much that change guys. Obviously, news and roles change. But for someone like him, he just might be buried here for a nice cheap ad. All right, so this is probably my favorite call out. And it's going to be Graham Pauli, third baseman with the Marlins. He's been going-- let's see. 6.77, basically, on average. So he's getting drafted in most drafts, but he's getting drafted in the final couple rounds in most drafts. And I think he's going to be the Marlins starting third baseman. I think he is one of their best defenders, and I think they really value strong defense. And I also am very encouraged by what Pauli did at the plate to close last year. He was really good at AAA. And he was still just 24 years old. He had a 127WRC plus at AAA. Strike out right below 12% at AAA, eight homers, five steals, and 37 games. And his big league numbers don't look that great on the surface. He did have a 246 bad up. But he had as many walks as K's and a 126WRC plus over his final 100 played appearances. So he was a legitimate starting caliber third baseman for the Marlins over the last month. And they've just been signaling that they don't like kind of norbiot third. I think it's-- I don't know why Raster Resource thinks it'd be Pauli at first in Norbiot third. That doesn't make any sense to me. I think Pauli-- maybe he sits against lefties, but he's just going so late. I think he could go 15 homers, 15 steals, maybe 16 homers, 12 steals, something like that. We'll flip that. It's exciting, man. I'm in the grand Pauli. Yeah, it's funny because there's always that fantasy burn. And I had a lot of Pauli last year, and I get didn't materialize to what I thought it was going to be. But like you said, he still performed well in the minor. It was like WRC plus wise. And like you mentioned, the last two months of the season, he closed it out really well. And when I saw that, I was trying to find something to see where that change had come from. And he actually got like batting stance, which is cool. You can break down the batting stance, leaderboard on Savant. And you can break it down into a month. And you know, he started-- he got closer to the pitcher. He got closer to the plate by significant amount, like an inch and a half from the beginning of the season. He had a wider stance with his feet from the beginning of the season to the end. There was about a five-inch difference. And he closed off his stance a little bit. He was about 15 to 18 degrees open. He ended the season. Eight degrees open. And it led to like better less pop-ups and over on the battle ball trial. Again, you could do it by monthly. And it's just seen to me that he had a better bat path to the ball hit a lot more line drives. So it's interesting when a guy makes a change like that. And we have these tools. And sometimes they don't know how much to wait them. Like is this real? Is this going to stay? Is this just an experiment? But sometimes you have to look at those kind of changes. And we have to use the projection in our head. It's like maybe this is a real change. And he looked better when he did that. So I like that call. Like that's interesting the how that infield, I think, evolved. So I think Wagonman showed enough that he could still get some run and he projects very well too. And then you have this Christopher Morales. thing I don't believe at all that he's gonna play first base. It just doesn't seem like the route they're gonna take the first base. So yeah, I think between first and third being in flux a little bit. Paulie has a nice little shot there to getting some more PT than he's being projected for. Absolutely. We beach got, or not, how many do you got left? I did Hunter Harvey and Conforto so far. Let's see you got three left right? Who you want to go with? I'm gonna go Sean Newcom. Yeah, who's a free agent. And again, a lot of these, again, this has kind of been the mold of like the Maldivesinski thing. There's so many guys like this. I can throw out like even Dietrich N to someone I thought I don't want to throw all these kind of guys out. It's just these boring pictures that you could throw in. But Newcom, you know, he started off as a starter with the Red Sox. And he had a 25.7% K-8, 15% came on its walk for three-series and those five stars. He had a 477 Babber, which led to like an unsightly whip that I think was hard for him to bring down at the season. You know, on a long, but he's got good fastball breaking ball combo. He limits barrels with his good angles, good ground ball profile. And as a reliever, he had a 219y R.A. 117 whip, 15% came on its walk and showed that he could pitch in high leverage. I think he's like Nick Martinez light. And when you if you want to look at some guy who could pop in as a starter, I think some team will take a chance on him again at the starter, but we've seen that he can be good in the pen and help your ratios too if that's the case for him. So again, not a sexy pick, but I've been feeling out my team with pitchers. Sometimes I vie for this profile instead of like my 17 starter that's going to be hard to project. Yeah, I mean, newcomer just big lefty with stuff like teams are never going to give up on that. Right. So I mean, you could just see by like his performance, but just how many opportunities he's gotten over the years. Yeah, like that con. What do you like what do you what's so would you be hoping that he signs with like a good team as a reliever, a bad team as a reliever? Like do not care. You just think he's going to be fine no matter what. I hope he signs with like someone with that I the analytical eye to take advantage of his abilities, you know, like some of these like, I mean, the red socks with an ice team for him to I think start off the season with last year and I think he took some things with them. But yeah, I hope he signs with a good team that is in the forefront of like the analytic world and can maximize his ability. All right, so I don't think I surprised you with any of my first three. I don't think I'll surprise you with my last one. So I'll try to surprise you with this one. All right, Nathan Church how about that? I love it. Get ahead. All right. So Nathan Church, lefty hitting out failure with the Cardinals. I think there's going to be some roster turnover still on this roster before opening day. Church is a good defensive outfield there. He can play all three spots. He's got a good arm and right. He's got the glove for center. He's not like a victor Scott level defender in center, but I think he's a better hitter than victor Scott. Now Church, he's got a bit of a ground ball problem, at least in the the very upper levels, but strikeout rate below 10% last year with 13 homers and 16 steals in 86 games in the minors. So just love the contact rate combined with the defense and just the depth chart. I just think there's going to be like 200 plus played appearances there. I'm not expecting him to hit double digit homers even in a best case scenario. Like it might be like he probably if he ever gets a double digit homer power, it's probably in his mid to late 20s, but I could see 15 steals and maybe four months of like a strong side betuneral with the Cardinals. So as your last outfield there in the 50th round, sign me up for Nathan Church. All right, I like that. And I think that's just such a sharp move to take advantage of the known expected terminal internal and turn of a roster from a team. And I think that's very valid to use that. I to you know, speculate on these guys at the end of the season to get them time. Maybe like you said, and from June on or to start the season, if they move on from Newport and Gorman and Donovan, you know, there's a lot of chance for him to slide in there. He's got to worry about Jordan Walker standing in his way. Joking, joking everybody. Joking. One of the the very first trade that happened in my favorite dynasty league this half season was a team trying to buy low and Jordan Walker. Yeah, I mean, I heard you discussion with Vops over on it and it makes so much sense of the good things and the bad things of her hand. And you just have to figure out if he can overcome that, you know, and I just think that some people would sell in the application and some people fail. And that and it's great if you train to help yourself, but how are you going to carry it into the games and he's always seemed like a guy within the news as, oh yeah, they told me this and I'm trying this and it just never worked. So I'm just hoping to drive on stuff. Good stick to him. That would be good, you know, for him. All right, Rob, get two more. So a lot of times, you know, when I'm getting to these, you know, later around James, I'm just, I have my leaderboard and I just sort by barrels, bats, speed or whatever it is just to look for some exciting, you know, choose there. And I just I still see Zach Desendo, my mind as someone, you know, that's like, he can't escape me. And I think first obviously it comes down to the team, you know, and their depth chart. And, you know, I think we see in your list, that chart in the league in terms of being a new ring right now. Oh yeah, I mean, it's just so much, they could be some of movement there. We heard Jake Myers in the news and I think that obviously helps melt and end Desendo, Gaines and PT. I mean, Hadoo Sanchez went to the Astros and had like one of the worst structures of his career. I don't expect that to continue, but I also feel like they don't have anything they owe to Hadoo Sanchez as well. And I mean, Sendo is just like, there's a small sample of him in the majors, but it's still, you know, it's 174 played appearance with a 14% bow rate. And that's just at 101 bad ball event. And that's just something I like 73 mile an hour, bats, speed, 90th percentile sweet spot. He's got good speed, 75% tall sprint speed. And a steamer has him steamers like conduit 18 and seven just like seeker. Why swing decision wise, you just super passive. When he's got a chance in the majors and again, something that just maybe with some subtle time and a better head and just have a better approach at the plate. But I still see a lot of goodness here in the profile is just how the depth chart shakes up. So if you're unsure of it, you probably want to stay away from it. But if you see some paths here for him to step in and be a part of the team, you know, then I think it took a place to go. I just really wish Dana Brown knew how to organize a big league roster because I just don't think there's any evidence that he knows how to do that. That's for sure. Like what are you doing, man? I have no idea. These guys need to play. These guys got to play. Yeah. Yeah. I would want to trade with the Astros. I'd be I'd be trying to get some of their guys like whoever it is. Like whoever they want to get rid of. Like they got to get rid of some of those guys. Yeah, because you know, when you mentioned like lead around picks that we love, like immediately I thought of melting, but then I that's why I actually what pick after we're picking on another. Okay, I think I'm off the list because obviously he's going to lie high, but I love melting for that reason too. Oh yeah, I've got a melting share. Okay, so my last call. I could easily just throw out Tanner McDougal of the White Sox, but I've written about him as a DC target. I love Tanner McDougal. I think he is still going in the final five rounds. So I think he's like a layup if he's going there. I think he's the White Sox most likely pitching prospect to make waves in 2026. However, Hagen is also available even later than McDougal. And I think Hagen Smith is more likely to kind of stick in this final five round range. And it's very easy to just point to his control and say like why would you take this guy? But if you asked some of the smartest scouts out there, like this time last year, like what do you foresee for Jacob Mizorowski's 2025? They would have said a lot of the same stuff that people would say about Hagen Smith's 2026. Just discuss a reliever. If he gets in, he's going to be they're gonna break him in out of the bullpen, maybe next year he'll be a starter of that type of thing. In Hagen Smith, like he's always missed bats, slight improvement with the control in the Arizona fall league. But I just, I think the White Sox have a better idea of what they're doing than they really ever have in the past like five, six years. And you just, you don't have to go back that far until like Hagen Smith and Chase Burns being compared to each other in the draft. One of them's going around Pick 100. One of them is free at the end of DCs. I just think it's a nice talent gamble on a guy that the White Sox are gonna be very committed to trying to develop in 2026. - Like that. That's a nice call out there. I feel like they have some, a lot of interesting guys like, you know, late to kind of speculate on. It's a, and I love like kind of the Shane Smith Sean Burke guys too, just because of the change they've made and the step they've made forward. So it's really important to pay attention to that organizational shifts, right? Because there's so much value in that. And I know our good buddy Rob will be like, well, how do we know this new hitting code will influence them. But I think we could do our best. And at least anticipating that might be some change in an organization. So I call out there. - All right, take us home, Rob. - Oh my gosh. - Yeah, so this is interesting because I had a tough time figuring out who exactly I wanted to mention here because I wrote down so many guys, because I know we're very in lockstep with our brains a lot. And I just wanted to like, I gotta make sure I have some guys, you know, backed up and ready to go. So I have two guys I want to throw out because I think there's just gonna steam a 600 and possible opportunities. But the first one is Everton Pereira for the Chicago White Song. I think there's like a possible chance that, you know, just giving that he has no options. I know they signed like they're killed at the end of last season. I know, you know, they still got Brooks Baldwin, Ben and Tendi and Luis Robert. But I think Luis Robert is gonna be on the move. And I just kind of forecast a little bit of a Mike Taupman role for Pereira where he just plays versus all the righties and maybe even some lefties. His steamer 600 is 22 homers, 10 stolen bases. I think like what we've seen from him so far in the majors isn't, you know, special per se, but he's still, it's gonna be 25 in April. He over, let's see, over a 91 bad of all, advantage an 8% bow, you know, 50% hard hit. And the EV 90 is strong. The song decisions were really good in the minors last year. So I mean, just playing time wise, he might be able to slot into a decent chunk of PT in center field and late, I'll take a shot when someone had that kind of steamer 600 ejection. And someone's pretty similar to, I guess, sorry, do you wanna comment on that? - Just really, really quick. I just wanted to look up. - Yeah, so I mean, like, even just compare Perera's, like approach, like all of his hit tool related metrics at AAA to what Colson Montgomery's wear last year. And then look at what Montgomery did in the big leagues for the White Sox. Like, it's, it's, like, I love the, I love, like, you couldn't ask for a better team fit for Perera to like actually get a shot this year. - 100%, and I think like I said, like when you really go through the depth chart and you're seeing the, like, the no options left and they could probably use another outfielder on this team for the whole season. I think those are the things that also, I draw you in more, but yeah, I mean, pretty, he did really have some strong EV90s and strong ball rates in the minor as well. So I see, there's a lot to like for him in these late rounds. And also in the same vein, Oswald Paraza for the Angel because they just don't think they're gonna have a settled infield through the whole season. And I think when you saw him come over from the Yankees, another guy, no options left. I think he had the ability to, you know, pop in at second. You saw him play first last year when he had to, I could play third and short. And it hasn't really, you know, showed what I think we wanted him to be. But he's still only 25 years old, you know, pretty solid, you know, 6% battery for his career. And like the steamer, 617 and 18 is just all very, the Angel's on aggressive team on the base path. So I don't know, I just, he seemed to me a guy that you could pluck really late just to try to get some speed, you know, for a decent stretch in your lineup. - Yeah, love both those call outs and just two guys that were definitely former top 50 road wire prospects. - Yeah. - And I think Perrera probably top 25 overall prospect at his peak. So like I just, I like when these kind of mid tier prospects for these blue chip orgs kind of wash out and then end up on these second division teams. And then they just don't really have as much, I mean, there's pressure when you're out of options and you might get TF8, but like, you know, you're not, it's not the same thing as like trying to perform for the Yankees or, you know, like the Dodgers have traded away a bunch of these guys in the past two. So yeah, love both those call outs. - I don't give you one more, James, because I just thought of this last night I was looking at the, I was thinking about things and can Andrew Susak recently drafted in the Blue 5? Can he be the next Blake Sable for draft champion to win? - I'm just just like, oh man, get the hell out of here. - I know, Lisa, these are the things I asked myself, so you know, I go, - When you're number four DC catchers. - Hey. - It's like, hey man, I plugged this guy in for like two weeks and he got me like, yeah. - He got me three hits. - You huge. - All right, man, well, what do you gotta let people know about where they can fall along with all the great pull hit or magic? - Yeah, so come check me out on the Patreon. If you go to patreon.com, put pull hit or fantasy into the search bar, it'll come up. You can get a free week trial to come check out with I'm producing weekly and you get the additional long-changle pods that me and Rob still do, the one that you guessed appeared on as well that was over on the Patreon side. So every other long-changle pod goes over to my Patreon and they're trying out the new stuff this year with some AI transcripts of my pods and trying to train it to provide some good write-ups as well because I love talking and I don't like writing as much. So I'm trying to converge those so people have audio and notes as well. And on Twitter is @deadpoleheader but yeah, pollheader podcast with doing some positional previews right now with Dusty Wagner. We've hit several positions. We have third base, Alfield, Pitcher left. Doing some divisional previews with Randy Haynes. And it's mostly geared in this vein, right? We're just trying to look at ADP, Dept Charct and trying to find angles of guys that can be useful in fantasy this season because I think we're also good at the top of draft James, right? And I think you just make that edge from really looking at the Dept Charct, really looking at opportunity and skill sets and finding that as the actionable guys, right? Because I think we can all draft the good first 10, 15 round team. And just after that, how do you separate from the crowd? So that's what we geared to it over at the pollheader. Very good stuff, man. For my listeners, no pod next week taking that off. But like I said, I went on bench with Bubba yesterday. So check that out. I'm going on a tool shed pod with their cross tonight. So check that out. And then also got a Christmas present for everyone next week. Surprise update to the dynasty rankings just before Christmas for you. YouTube's 15, if you want to get 15% off and check out those dynasty rankings. And of course, all the top 400 update FIPD stuff after the new year. And thanks to Rob D. Piazza. So stay safe everyone and happy holidays. Cheers.