Aurie's Star Day Preview

[MUSIC] [MUSIC] Vincent gets him out now and here he comes. Denon Kingley gets up the rail, golden 60. They roar for their home town hero. He's a length player over Sally Os running on mother earth. It's golden 60. The locals can't beat him. The international's can't beat him. This is his house fortress golden 60. I'm a guesthouse bursting up the inside. Guesthouse moves up from music time. Strison, guesthouse won the slip out guesthouse. Leeds strison, photo third music time. Cairing rising stoked up. Purtons says come on boy. Show the Aussies what you've got. Cairing rising moved up to overpass. Le from Jimmy Star. The Cairing rising. Champions do what others can't. He's the world's best friend in home now. Saki joined by Animo who looks destiny in the face. At the 150, Animo takes the lead from Saki. Animo's got a master's track. The master's track lay. Animo holding on. This time for the big A. The master's track Elbona got it. Wings down the middle. Kings will bring with 100 and getting desperate. Now Wings is storming home. Wings down the top. I'm just too good. The Cairing leader. ♪ I'm just a never so the sale ♪ ♪ Oh yeah ♪ ♪ The pages out of place ♪ G'day listeners and welcome back to the Racing Previews podcast. We are pumped up because it is the first day of the new season, 2020 and 26, 27 begins this Saturday with the first of August. And we've got a feature race. It is the Group 3 Aurey Star, a Flemington 1200m handicap down the I didle diddle. My name is Ben Calluzzi. If you're joining us for the very first time, I'm joined as always by Nick Muguelta and Will Alfred. Nico, how are you doing mate? Yeah, good. Had a good run in tonight for the people playing at home that love to know how my journey is. So that was a relief. I mean, a much better mood tonight with chicken sea. We changed it off a bit tonight, didn't we? Yeah, once in a while. Once in a while. We went to the Maros instead of the Rising Sun. I'll be honest. I'll be honest. The last time I had this nipple there, it was an eight and a half. Tonight it was probably a seven. It's a good place. Nice fire place. Yeah. Service was okay. Not an any rush to go back. It wouldn't hold a candle to the Rising Sun hotel. No disrespect. But it's a bit like comparing Group 1 Orcs's Vist. Benchmark 100 Orcs's, though. There you go. Yeah, I'm glad you have it, Pines. We're going back to the Rising Sun next Wednesday night. And I'm not leaving. But how are you? And well, very good. That's good. That's all that needs to be said. But what did Evan have this nipple tonight? So that's how much he saw in the place? No, I had a late lunch and I just had a risotto. It was like some weird green risotto. Yeah, it looked like something you'd get in the bloody vegan cafe. It looked a little bit. I don't want to say it. No, I don't. It looked a little bit like a matcha risotto. Yeah. Because I'm talking about matcha and a pea risotto. I'm going to do this again. It looked like green. No, it was actually quite nice. I think it was something green and a matcha. Yeah, a matcha. Garlic. It was over. It was a matcha. Green goblin. There you go. I had a little winter night. Yeah. Parked out the front. Went to go on that beat for Nico, this was. Went to go and pay my parking, put it in the bay number. And bang, there you go. It's already been paid for me. So someone obviously has left and left my spot open. My spot. My parking spot has already been paid for. And it had me thinking. And it had me thinking that we should be paying for parking in general. Good point. Should we bring me to mates to Victoria? Me to mates. Yeah. What? You don't know what a me to mate is. What do you call it? I don't know how it got me. You know what? You know what? You know the goal coach, girls? Up on Cavalavni. Yeah. Me to mates. So the girls walking around in, in not much. Yeah. They go around and they put in a couple coins so you can pay for your parking. Yeah, they're still on their bed best. We don't have it here in our, in Metro Melbourne, but I. Everything's tapped. Maybe it's a thought. Probably understandably. Could be a new business venture. Bring me to mates to see us Melbourne in the 10 degrees. You could see it. We could see it. Collaborative partnership. The sixth date with me to mate. Yeah. Anyway. That joke is not landed with you too. Yeah. No idea what I was talking about. Where are we going from there? We are going overseas spot. That's where we're going. The King George was the, what featured a couple of the highest rated horses in the world. This was ruining my night, mind you. Last week. Saturday night to be precise. And Kel Parn was able to turn the tables on, Kaland again, who actually beat her last year. It was the same one too. As 2005. She's a typical European. There's hateful yo-yo type. She's a very good horse. But what did you make of it? I thought Kel Parn was a dominant winner. Kaland again, he ran alright. But he's a great collar definitely back Kaland again. Because I was a bit under the influence of this point in time. I was never really confident that he was going past. He comes Kaland again. Kaland again, here he comes. He wasn't exactly coming, bro. And ask it's a hard one. Because it's such a stiff uphill finish. And when they go fast, you have horses who just die on their last 200. And I get the feeling that's what has happened with him, but. What I will say is that I couldn't just rip him out of trouble like he has before. I do think Kel Parn has been more efficiently ridden than him and that might have helped her. Potentially. I'm not sure. I'm not adept in all these sorts of things. But visually it was a nice race on paper. It was going. There were lots of very, very nice horses at the Japanese horse didn't show up. Typical. The track was too wet, obviously, on the firm ground there at Ascot. He's been waiting all week to say that. No. I don't know. The Japanese just go in Japan. That's all only really. No, they are obviously very good horses, but. They are not quite as good as their supporters make them out to be. And it does my head in some times. Well, but anyway, they're not, they don't seem great travelers. They don't seem to run to their mark. Well, they're, because they're very, very much. They're like all their horses are just off their head all the time. And then it's like it's celebrated over there. Look at this horse. It's doing backflips over there. And then like, oh, this is great. Oh, like, I don't know. I mean, it's obviously. It's massive in Japan and that's sort of an issue. But like if a horse was doing backflips in the middle of Flemington race course, like it surely would stare up a bit of, anyway, that doesn't matter. It was disappointing. I loved it. The last two, Derby winners. Oh, well, actually, the Irish Derby winner. And the non-runner in the English Derby Benvenuto Chalini was quite good. He ran third and then landborn. Who won the Derby last year. Derby last year was effectively a pacemaker for the the the the Coolmore Colt this year. And he stuck on for fourth. So the win for the Derby, which is good because the Epsom Derby is a great race. And I don't have anything really to do with it. But it's a good visually anyway. I love watching the European Mar-on-Half races. Yeah. The other news that came out of the races at Kalanigan. Francis Henri Grafard, the Frenchman, the trainer has come out and said they're likely going to go back to Japan and defend his crown in the Japan Cup, which. Yeah, there's a $5 million bonus. Yeah. Which all but rules out, he will not be coming to Australia for the Cox plate. So that is disappointing news. So we've had the news at Kalanigan's not coming for the Cox plate. We've also had the news at a boy named Susie as failed. He scans his not coming. Well, not the news. It's just the allegedly. Allegedly. Allegedly. Ah, out of the scans. And maybe a last hope might be the Japanese horse and Dan on the side or who knows. Maybe he goes Kalanigan and Masquerade baller going to the Japan Cup. Here's my chance to get a Cox plate at Flamington 2000 meters. I actually think Kalanigan might be better at 2000 meters and 2400 meters. He might have just peaked on his run a little bit late. I'll give him a brutal tempo over 24 in Japan and. He'll probably still win. Well, maybe just depends if he's close enough because it's not the rider because he just. It's the same old thing. Kwanigan either gets him out of trouble or. He peaks on his run and doesn't quite get there. Yeah, let's talk about. Results close at a home and when I say home, I mean core field. Podcast multi wasn't fantastic. It is really hash on something. Yeah, I had my queries about the core field track a little while ago. My queries are enhanced. Track is in fucking trouble. Yeah, it's not it's not racing very well. I think we're having a group one in three and three weeks. Yeah, it's not very good. We've got the rail out 10 11 meters. The inside probably five lanes are all. It's like a cow paddock. It's very choppy out there and then they've aerated the extreme outside lane. There is, we sort of, there was still plenty of track to play with, but we sort of did predict that it'd be offence, but they wouldn't be coming all the way down the outside. Yeah, the middle lanes, there were sort of five to ten, I don't know exactly, but there were a certain part of the track where there was a desired place to be on the day. As you said, it was quite a bit of kickback coming up, and typically when that happens, the track is really wet, it wasn't that wet, the time suggested it was more like a five. So yeah, look the track, the track is obviously very tired. The reason I'm not sure, that's not my domain, I'll leave that to Sam Bennett's. But I'd say, I'd say like it, it's definitely, I think it's not great, but I don't think I've played too badly on Saturday, it wasn't, I don't think it's the end of the world. Niko's having a tantrum. Oh yeah, the chairs do all me. I'm trying to convince him to. I'm about to put it down. Do you want to have it? I think this is usually David Tagguts. So Tagg is dumb. So Tagg is dumb, he's. So it's going the end on the side. Those who know Tags. Just get, just get my move. He's about four foot nothing in a next jockey and funny bloke, however, Dimension's next to Niko. Quite a bit. Not similar. It's the last thing I need to come in here in a good mood. Well, what happened was a chair syncing a bit. Yeah, it was going the end on a side. All right, let's get your camera realigned. Jono let us know. There we go. Yeah he's sweet. All right, return. Where was I? I have no idea. Now we're perfect. This is exactly perfect. Yeah, let's kick on. Thank you. It was a my fault. Yeah, there's some good winners over the weekend. Custom one really well. She was excellent. She ran a faster time overall than what the bletchingly did on the same day. Obviously that was part to do with tractor-tiereration on the day and also pace as well. I mean, Jockey probably helps. I guess James. Who did you take over from? Jamie. I don't know. Just James on is just worth a few links. Yeah, that's another thing. Isn't he airborne at the moment? He rode four today. Four of the eight winners there at Sandown today. He had an absolute fill up. Really had a five-tonal. Here, like he and Kiran Mahar. I think that I don't know. It's hard to say one is assisting the other. I think it's sort of a combination of both. That just the Kiran Mahar's table is absolutely firing at the moment. But I think it's a good mixture of both. Yeah, that's what I'm saying. It's a well-prepared and he's obviously right. He's very, very well. It helps. His loss is three kilo claim in the Metro of notice. He's down to two. Well, he had two today. That hasn't been possible. Yeah. No, it definitely didn't. Do you want some stats? Yeah, read them. Before today, 84 races. Kiran Mahar and Jabe Johnson, 22 wins at 26%. Profit on turnover, proportional to 31%. I'd say after today, that would be closer to 28%, 29% strike rate. Profit on turnover would probably be in the mid-30s. They are airborne. I guess we'll do the weekend at bots. I'll give that a bit of a shout out on Betsy. I'll run a column every week about the races on Saturday and how they'd rated. Maybe I should start writing columns about weekends. You can't spell. Maybe Netflix Docko, not written former. That would be good gear. Glasgow last out of the same race. It was a good West Australian man. I'm glad you found her. She had about 400 days off. We supported over 1100 metres behind a Tasmanian feeling that I can't quite name off the top of my head. Then resume 70 days between runs there at Corefield and she was exceptional over the concluding stages. Also on a high-light mystery in drama, also on those same race because that race rated quite well who finished eighth. It's an eighth, but it's a very good eighth. She's a feeling that was runner-up or third in the Angusama and Asco behind. She's a alibi. I think she's one that you can follow with the market dismisses a little bit in the future. I think she's one for punters to latch onto it potentially. Beautiful. We've got to talk about quickly. Tennessee Bound, she got the job down at $1.50. She wasn't anything massively impressive. James Ellie come over the bloody handlebar. Yeah, that was the thing. It was like when you were riding your push block as a kid near to rock. Ellie went over the top. I think I wrote that she, from a ratings perspective, she's plateaued a little bit. I don't think she traveled as well. She hit her mark very early on in her career. Her best rating still is at Kramben, where she absolutely bolted in her fast time. I think she's just hit her level. Early days, I was half thinking this could be the next Marabi. She's late maturing mayor that's obviously had her issues that they're going to progress through the grades. I still think she's a very good horse. Don't get me wrong at all. The adjusting ceilings not quite as high as I potentially might have been after a second start. The margin for error for her is narrowing, she almost was loved to see her ridden with by behavior. A bunny? I would love to see her travel in the one one and just have something. Because at the moment, she's just going forward. She's having to do it all their own way, which is not the end of the world. Obviously, the better races that she gets into, the opposition gets harder. It'd be nice as a CEO if she could just sit in behind one and see her ridden with a turn of foot because we haven't really seen that apart from the day at Corfield Heath went. I guess they had to. She's good, but she's not Marabi because the leading obviously isn't working for her. Yeah, but I don't think this. Can we just move on? No, I'm not saying that. But I'm just saying sometimes. We're turning way too long. Sometimes horses can be ridden better differently, which he may be even better. Cosmic Crusader. Cosmic Crusader. G, he was awesome. I got this one wrong. I didn't think that was going to happen. I ended up having a saver on him, so I didn't lose on the race. I'd probably only broke even, but he. We beat SP with his own sensation. He did end up settling. It ended up settling three back on the rails, but he just went up the inside. He was just way, way too good. But from a rating perspective, I think he's gone to around 99 with Formking. 98. OK. That was the worst possible result, though. He's been winning like that, cos he's going to be so overbett now in the bledchingly. Well, I think it's. We're doing anything going to be taken a dollar short, maybe even more shorter than what he should have been. He was an impressive performer. I see, but. I think he probably. I don't know what's going to be a PB line, so they had to look back at past. Sort of, Lawrence, I was talking about. Historical, standard, and sort of that. The level that it takes to win a PB line, it's just sort of around the rating of about 99. And he ran 98.2 on Saturday, and I'd say that he'd take a step and second up, and he's probably going to operate between sort of 100 to 102, if I had to guess that. He's peaks 101, I think, in the middle of. 101.8, I think. OK. So, yeah. I think also what they have as well. Like, they've had the run, which is massively important. And also, I think, it'll be written much more positively over 400 metres. I think they'll roll forward on that. Well, he can take a bit of a shot. That'll be the point of difference for him, I think. Second up, maybe even third up, because the way he wins the MMC. I'm third up, I think he can be. He's probably not going to beat Shoe's Alibi, but the way they do it, and the best chance of doing it, is to roll forward and make it a test, because that's him. Yeah, no, I'd probably agree with that. That MMC is going to be hot. It will be. He probably. He might not be good enough to win it, but if he comes yet and wins the Lawrence impressively, then he's going to be. Good, I hope he takes up percentage. He's only going to go with. He can't win the MMC. He'll be $6. I don't give a win by five next time, he can't win the MMC. Fair enough. I think he can win a group on this spring, so I disagree with Johnny O'Neill in that regard. He could win the Underwood. Yeah, that's his race. All the MMC. All the MMC. That's what I was going to say. He can't win anything else. 1800 metres at call. Not winning this year, actually. Not winning a MMC. He's not winning a MMC. He's not winning a Cosplay. Well, he could win a MMC. He could win a MMC or a MMC. Yes. And. Or a Nolte. So dealias might be there, but he's been. So dealias, he's the premier 2000 metre horse in Australia, but he has been known to be feasible over. You know, 1800 metres in the lead in races because they're not the acid tests that they are in like, you know, a coxplader of. Yeah, Queen Elizabeth. The second and third legs of our multi were disappointing and that was ice cool and cruise away. Both got. probably too fizzy, both a little bit too warm. They were both ridden outside later. Both disappointed. It was the end of it. Ice cools come to the end of the prepping. I dare say cruise away, it might be going out for a spell as well. Was he pushing on? Yeah, I don't know. No, I think that it's sort of resetting another race for him in four weeks, time or something. Yeah. Yeah, I don't know. It's an agree to disagree. But sort of it was okay with the ride. I thought it. Sort of thought he was a bit warm. Craig sort of said that he rode him a bit warm and. Yeah, he just didn't have that turn of speed and that finish that he had. Last one, bot doesn't necessarily. I just thoroughly believe that horses can be ridden anywhere and finish off. And you've got to ride horses to their pattern. I think that was evident because that turn of foot and great finish that he had last time simply wasn't there. Well, he didn't quicken last time. He just slowed slower. And I was cool was pretty disappointing. Let's be honest. He's still doing a few things wrong, but I'm not end of prep running. You can never forecast. Yeah, you can't put a pen through it. I'm annoyed I didn't have at least a saver on Hawkeahall. He ended up getting up to $7. The huge goal was for Big Red to Keala. He ended up saying $3 or $3. I didn't understand that because she did. She did. I missed the start. Yeah, but Ice Cool had had her measure. So I'd sort of. Yeah, it was interesting. I couldn't understand that move. I could have understood the Hawkeahall move, but I didn't really understand the Big Red to Keala move because I thought, well, Ice Cool's handled it a couple of times. Well, I would have thought, well, wouldn't have mattered by the race plan. Yeah, but I couldn't have personally thought the Big Red to Keala was going to beat Ice Cool. I'm sorry for me because I probably would have had to Hawkeahall mark $485. He's then ended up winning at sevens. We move on. Moxports. They did a little prediction thing and they asked me to go in it. I saw that you reshared it and what's my spring prediction. And on behalf of us, I said Daniel Stakehouse wins his first group one. So hopefully we can get that over the line and who knows it might be on Cosmic Crusader in an underwood or a might and power. We said today the return of Blake Shin, an absolute champion of a jockey, it seems. It's a bit of romance to it, isn't it? We haven't seen him since Melbourne Cup Day last year where he had a terrible broken leg. Now he resumes on the first day of the new season. He's done it smart. He's waited. He hasn't rushed himself back and I think that just probably is a testament to the ultimate professional that he is. He's taken his time. There was no real need for him to come back six or eight weeks ago. Compound fracture, wasn't it? Yeah. And it's here a little, yet a few setbacks with the recovery with it. So he wanted to make sure that he was 110% right and you just know that he will be and I can't wait to have him back. He's a jockey that I love. Backing and finding and yeah, you know, and he's a horse. He's a jockey. He's done on me. He's a jockey that. He's a horse. He's a jockey that helps horses. Yeah, well, he said all, but he shows initiative and he enraces with tempo that we have in Victoria. That's a winning formula when you can put a proactive jockey on a horse that is able to take a position further forward than perhaps they've written in previous times or circumstances permit. Yeah, it can be the difference. Yeah, really happy to have him back. Yeah. Now he's got some of the best hands in the best seat in Victoria. He's the best jockey in Victoria. What is on? I can't for power when he's on when he's on. I did a little poll. How are you treating Blake Shin from a betting perspective on Saturday? Put that on Twitter. The three options were positive, negative and not sure. And these polls was very, very close. 280 is right so far. Wow. 36% said positive. 21% said negative. And 43% said not sure. I'm in the camp of positive. I would have had a clear cut positive. I think you could ride. I'm going for at least a double on Saturday. If he wasn't right and ready to take and ride these horses at the best of his ability, he would have slowly drifted for himself back. He's got a good book on Saturday, rightfully so. And he will be ready to give everyone of those horses every possible chance. He's been back at the jump out for three or four weeks. Absolutely. I tell you what. He'll be fine. If you're treating Blake Shin as a negative as a jockey, I think. You need to have re-read. But my age had read, you're acting well. I think it's a genuine question. Like, my age. No, maybe he might be a little bit rung rusty to start. Yeah, but I think he's done his due diligence making sure that he's. Yes, he's not going to be necessarily. Have his best. race day 100% fit. But I think you can take that he's going to be near enough to it. And he's near enough to it is a lot better than a lot of other people's 100%. So. Yeah. I will botch out at himself out. So I'm going to quicky shout out more. I'm tipping up, which is the sixth day racing. I haven't done it in a very long time. So I'm due. I'm due at. How has the sixth day been going? It's been going pretty average so far this year, as in Paul. So the results haven't been great, but if you're. It's your time. If you're ever going to sign up, I'll be completely honest with you. It's now is probably the time because. Are you doing a spring package or anything? No, it's just the same package. It's very cheap. It's $150 for a whole year or you can go just the spring, which is about $80, $3,000 or something like that. Yeah, I think we're down this year. We're down 7-8% profit on turnover. Yeah. But what I can tell you is that 2024 or 17% plus profit on turnover and last year was about 13 or 14. So if you've been there since the start, you're in front. Definitely. And we can edge our way back this spring. But that's an update from my tipping service, which is the sixth day racing on the App Store. Oh, I need a plug mine. Everyone knows where to find my stuff. Both Apple and Android. All right, let's get into this card. I don't know. Will? Right, next to the Armagard. The Armagard was out of flat-trial line. The Armagard drivers. Armagard. Draw very confused. Armagard, I got a flat-trial last week. James, there wasn't any pointing in shooting. There was none. No filling up. The gun was not my hood. Oh, that's OK. Let's get to the top. We reload. You can't win every week. Sometimes you just got to give him a little bit back to keep him interested. Wouldn't be funny if we won every week, but the house sometimes wins. Sometimes. Not very often. Flamengo's in rails out 10 metres. It is a good four. Would you believe it's 16 degrees and there's a very, very slight, normally wind. But could we see a slight on-speed advantage with a firm attract this weekend and the rail out? Oh, look, I'm not really having any firm opinions at this stage. Yeah. All right, on the track. Well, hopefully it plays fair. That normally, if it does get up, it can be a headwind for the leaders. It's not going around that sort of side-straight, but it's only around the 12 to 15 kilometre mark. So hopefully it's not too bad. We start in race number one. To handicap over the 2,500 metres and Niaco fraud our $3.25 and has been hit in last hour from our Chief $3.40, stop the Rock 750, Bluestone 750 and Black Run is $12. Well, don't tell me you're going one more of Black Run. You know what? You didn't get as beat as far as I thought. You were telling me you got distance. No, I think I beat in half a point out of the length. Yeah, well, if they went quicker, you would have won. No, probably not. In this race, my view is that I think Niaco fraud, sorry, is the right favourite after winning twice at sand down. He hadn't raced in about 330 days leading into this campaign, is improving with each run. I think he was close to the speed with Blake Shin. If you look back at his last preparation this time last year, he was racing against the Winter Challenge sort of staying series against the likes of Shocolates. And those races were rating really well. You compare that to this year, where the favourite our Chief has come through. I think last year's is better and I think he's building towards a peak this time. I think he'll settle close. I think he's the right favourite. I marked him $3. The favourite our Chief is now four-year-old and backs up from last week and obviously, and won there. The strength of that form is not overly strong, I don't think. And I think it's a vulnerable favourite. But yeah, so I'm going to be backing Niaco fraud. Yep, so am I. I think I don't really like the back up for our Chief. Yes, he came in, but that was a weird race last week, where there was some heavy underachievers back in the field. The likes of Decalogue, King's reflection, brilliant tasar. They just seem to be end of prep runs. They were all sort of in different runs. I love the form Niaco fraud brings. All the form around him keeps standing up as well. The likes of Schultzie winning again. And this is now third time at the mile and a half. So he only needs to run to that number again and he's going to be mighty, mighty hard to beat. So yeah, I'm pretty keen on him and our Chief just looks a time, but short. Let's move on to race number two. This is three R2-olds and it's over the flying 1,000 metres, a bar, a $4 favourite from covert action $4.80. Rebel Tuesday and hearts of fairbought $7 and relinquishing is $10. Interesting race here, bot. We've got a favourite here who is well experienced, but she's only a little filly and she's got to carry 58 kilos. Yeah, and I think the support for her is probably, there's nothing I don't disagree with at all. I haven't done this race completely in depth. I don't love these sorts of races where the form is, you know, there's not much of it and it's very unexposed. I just don't love these sorts of races. But I understand Rue Bare because she's very professional and she'll very likely run to a good enough level to win a race like this. Big watch on this horse called covert action who run really well at cramben. Out of group one winning mayor by home affairs. Spenny? Was it Spenny? It was a little bit. I'm trying to find it. What are you talking about? Spenny, Spenny, Spenny, Spenny, Spenny. Oh, I'm not sure. Yeah, nice rating there, but it was around crambened lead. Ben, you like a horse called Santa Barbara in this race. So I'm not going to push anyone into anything here. I'm not going to-- I do. COVID action was actually on the 150 grand home affairs secret agenda. The horse at I-Like-- Sheep for-- The horse at I-Like could possibly be the most expensive horse in this race. And she's by Sniperl out of in good health. Her name is Santa Barbara. So very good bloodlines. Sniperl's just the sire. Probably the best sire in the last five to 10 years in Australia. Big treat box. Big close. Big close to. Peter Moody actually trained in good health. So he's had a bit to do with the fan. In good health race in the chain of lightning holes. Yes, he did. Yeah. And Santa Barbara, she was given three really soft jump outs. And then the latest, they actually let her off the bottle. And she's printed home and won that very, very nicely. So I just think $17 and around $4 a place looks over for this debut on. I think the markets missed her a little bit. I wasn't surprised that they did miss her. But I didn't think they were going to put up this bigger price. And Emily Posman, I think she can only claim one or two kilos off the 54. But she still gets in very nicely at the weights. And I just thought she was the best ruffy on the card on Saturday. We move on to race number three. This is a 2,000 meter handicap. And it's a benchmark 100. Star of India $4.20 from Smoke and Romans. $4.40. Glory days $5. See that storm $7. And Smoke and Princess is also $7. We haven't had too many fluctuations with these markets, as they've only been out for a couple of hours. Will, I don't think you really had an edge in this race. Oh, a little bit. I thought that Star of India was definitely the right favorite. But I think see that storm is a lot better than the bear result would suggest last time in the winter series final that did it on at a jack one. Race to radically their finished off really well enough. I don't think the form there is that strong. But I think it finished off and it's looking for 2,000 meters. And I think a big positive as well for this horse is it gets back onto a better track, which is-- I don't think this horse is one that might have appreciated it going and white-raced on the oil weather over in the UK and getting back onto a better track. I think we might see a big improvement from see that storm. And it's one that's a little bit interesting for me on the day. Smoke and Romans is so consistent here race well again. But and glory days is there. Thereabouts too. But we say that storm for me. I marked it $6. And that was sort of of interest for me. Yep. If I had to have a bear in this race, I'd probably have something small on smoke and Romans. Hopefully we get better than that. He probably won't be an official tip for me on my official tipping page, but I might have something small on. Let's move on to race number four. And Carhoff is our 4-door 20 favorite in this benchmark 74, 14 hundred meters. You know what that sounds like backwards? What? Farcoff. Swear jar. That's all you just swam out to on the flakes a little bit. Yeah, well, that wasn't really a swear. $5.50 into $4.20 in it. He's been hit with some good support. El Tursero is or El Turcaro $5. Dark Bonnie $6. Vino Evil $6. And Foy Mickey, saying a bit of support. $12 into $8.50 for the Nounans. Last start, second. We'll take it away. Nick and I probably aren't keen to bet in this race. Well, this is a very difficult race. And it's very difficult to preview on a Wednesday evening. I would just with the percentages. But that's fine. There'll be a winner on Saturday. Thanks for that, Insol. Carhoff. He'll map really, really well. That's his going life. He puts himself up on speed. He's just going to hit his number. He improves into a preparation, I feel, this horse. Vino Evil, I think, is the one that I'm most-- if I'm going to bet in this race, it's the one I'm most likely to back. I think it'll improve off a good run first up on heavy ground. It was a drifter on the day. I think it can improve sharply second up up on top of the speed. Darkbony draws wide. I remember 150 days ago back in the summer, I think it was racing against St. George, where he was like 2 to 50 favorite versus St. George. And obviously, the market sweep. But the expectation of him there and the rating he ran, I didn't expect him to run to the rating he did. And it was a really good one. And I think he's a horse that we can follow, especially up in distance. He might be sort of like a country cup sort of horse to keep in mind, darkbony. But he draws wide here. I think they'll go back from the draw. And I think he's going to be better over further. But I wouldn't at all surprised to see him winning. It is Zora. It's a little bit interesting for me as well. This horse did some good things in its second preparation, getting out over a trip. It's trial well leading. And I think it can run a nice race. But again, these prices will change significantly by Saturday. So it's hard to push you into anything right now. But I think the horse are most likely to be on. It's probably Fino Evil. I might even have something like it, Zora. Beautiful. Nico's just reminded me that the tip that I've got in race number 2 is also dual accepted on Friday at Jolong. So it could run it Jolong on Friday. Santa Barbara, that is. It's got Luke Nolan on Friday. I'm hoping they go to Flamings and chance their arm at the better race and the better prize money. But just a note there, if it runs it Jolong, I'll probably have to have something on it there as well. - Gavsources, dual noms as well. - Yeah, there's a couple in there that have accepted for both race number 4. The last race before the Quatti benchmark 78 over 1400 meters. And this is for the four year old plus mares. So interesting conditions. They're probably just trying to differentiate if he enter eight, differentiate. - Differential. - I've got there eventually third time. Differential eight between some of those three year old races. And stealth of nine, our $5 favorite from Cherishme $6.50. Salazar also $6.50, Ruku Parado $8.50. And Silent Shares was a huge winner last time on that wet track at Sanian. It's $10. Now yet again, favorite, the right favorite? - Yes, it is. Stealth of night will map really well. And 400 meters is its optimal distance. Does rise quickly to 400 meters from 1100 meters second up and might need one more run to sort of hit its peak. But I think she does have a bit of a class advantage on this field. And it wouldn't be as surprising as well if she hasn't run to her peak rating. I think there might be just a little bit left in her. I still don't think she's hit her absolute top. And yeah, also as well as worth knowing she raised four wide into the breeze there at Corefield, which was a big negative on the day. No horse did that aside from the good, Philly, Angel's Fury in the two-year-old race. So I think she'll definitely improve. I marked her $5. And that's her price, correct me if I'm wrong? - Yep, $5.50 with the bet boost. - Well, there you go. Take that if you can. But I would be surprised if Brilliant Horizon, look there's some concern for Brilliant Horizon over 1,400 meters. But I just think the way the market just continues to have a good opinion on this horse, just heavily supported their last time at Corefield over 1,100 meters. So again, has to go 11 to 14. But I just think if she can run it, I think she has a big chance to run really well. I marked her $9.50, so she's been clicked in a little bit. So maybe on Saturday, you might be able to get a bit of price. But I thought the horse that was over the odds at this stage is stage and screen, who was ridden negatively last start over 1,200 meters at lakeside, which you can't do. I think she'll improve third up and be ridden more positively. This is a horse that she's run ratings and put her in toward the top of the market. So if she can, I think you can just sort of look past what she did last time. She finished off the race really well. I think she can position much more forward. And I think she might be able to hit a number that could make her really competitive in this race stage and screen. - Yep, I don't have a massive opinion on this race, but I do think if you like stealth of night, you probably don't want to wait too late because she has such a strong SP profile going back through her stuff of last preparation and she did cover a fair bit of ground first up over an unsuitable trip of 1,100 last time. So I wouldn't be surprised if she starts closer to $4, then $5. We move on to the first leg of the quality. It is race number six on this program and it is over the mile. And if each of the runaways been really well backed in touchdown, $2.30 in this benchmark 84 handicap from Cali-O, $6, a slight, ESA, chocolates is $0.08, she'll be better over further, but this is another building run for her, super neema, $11, has talent on its day. And the same can be said for Bolt's Aver at $13. So not a bad little race this well. You couldn't get the favorite quite as short as he is, but he does look the one to beat. - Yeah, he's definitely the right favorite, but I just think he's pretty short. There's a lot of good horses here, but when you're pricing a race, and like if he hits his number, I don't think anything else can get him, but there's just so many horses that are there that if he doesn't run his numbers. number that can get him. So it's a funny one. But he was really good first up, met up a lot of ground from the back of the field where the pace was really, really strong. He looks airborne and I think he said to run to his number. I think he's about a $3 chance. The market's sort of saying, "Wait, the 220 with our friends, Ben?" $2.30 with our friends. So just with our friends. Our friends at the end of the year. They're not friends with you. I'm not friends with Brandon Ebel. I hope he listens, he just cups straights everywhere. He's actually been away. You're too good apparently. They clearly don't know him personally because he's nothing flash. He's been off for last couple of weeks. He's got lucky that the podcast multi is gone down. He's talking about Brandon who told Brandon. I'm not friends with Will any day. I actually had a. When we talk about you, we don't talk about our friends. Anyway, we'll continue. Your tipping actually is going relatively well. Thank you. Super Nema. I don't smoke up his eyes. I don't need it. Super Nema, I think, is best on top of the ground. I think he was reasonably well backed there at Sandown. I think he just didn't really go in the heavy track. I think he's best on top of the ground, as I said. Shocklets, I think, is Marlon a half horse. She sort of runs really well over a mile. Maybe they just think she's a mile. I am adamant that she's a proper mile and a half horse. That's the. with the best we will see of her. What are you doing here? I'm backing true. Well, I think maybe they're trying to rebuild and get up to a mile and a half again. But maybe they think she's a mile. I definitely think she's a mile and a half horse. Her best performances for me are over a mile and a half. Yeah, I mean, there's not much really to report from this race, other than the favourites too short. And maybe could really. Angland was back to the inside. Well, I've done it even. But, I mean, he's third up and probably won't do it to myself. But he looks a little bit. a little bit big. Yeah, I'm with the favourites. I've backed him at $2.70 earlier today. I think it's. I'm happy sitting on the position I am. I thought he was brilliant first up. And if he gets back to some of those ratings of last preparation at the Corfield Heath, where he was going to be around like 90-3 weight for age, which is. It's very, very good. And that's probably the winning standard for a race like this. It's probably even a bit above that. I just think he'll probably settle midfield. Second up, he should improve. He goes from a heavy track onto a good surface. And I think he's a winner, but no doubt, too dark, so he's a little bit short. Nick, I. Yeah, I agree. I'm happy to be with, but. Yeah, nothing else really to add. I think it's probably the best of the day at Flammington. But, yeah, it's. Caliose in good form at the moment with the Wizard on top. So, that could be the fly in the ointment. The danger. The Wizard, is that what we've coined him? The Wizard of the East. Jabez. He's my man, Jabez. I just coined Jabez. Race number seven is the day's feature. It could be the Wizard of the East. Ores star handicapped, 1200 m3. That's under handicapped conditions. War machine, $3.60 in favour from $1.4.80. It's been hit today from $5.50. I can saw kids, $6.00. Cote at Lantique, $7.00 in from Norns. Boomtown Boss, $6.00 out to $7.00 and Star Patrol is $7.50. There's some weird flux in this race. Very weird. It's an interesting race because I think your main speed is drawn out wide barriers, six and barriers, eight are both fanciful and star patrol. So, you could have a race scenario where the speed is a little bit out water and maybe barrier one doesn't quite work out for War Machine, but. I'm going to be with War Machine on top. I think last preparation, maybe he just didn't come up. You've just got to wipe it from your memory a little bit, which. I'm still on the fetal position after what happened at Parkham. That was a way I thought. I saw a lot of those. I absolutely fucking launched him. I had a huge bet on him and Hedge was just. That was not the start of the holiday that I needed. No, it wasn't the start of my year. I just tripped it at the broadband. It was a little bit just having one of my favourite places on Earth was just. Southwood. It's still probably one of the biggest bets I've had all year. I took a dollar seven or something. He started a dollar 40 and got rolled. I think we might be able to get our money back here though. His race and jump out was an absolute beauty. He's a horse who does usually jump out quite sharp, but just go back and watch that girl guy performance. He just absolutely stomped their heads in going back to October last year on the straight. If he can get to within a length of that, he probably wins. I've had two smaller bets and savers on both Arkansas Kid and Star Patrol. Arkansas Kid, while he's a pretty good horse in his own right. He's been jumping out very well. We saw you round second at Jigsaw over in New Zealand and that group won. He gets a nice run just up on speed. Both war machine and Arkansas Kid go fresh. The other saver I've had is on Star Patrol at $8. He's not the same horse he was. He's now a rising eight year old going on to nine. However, he's always been a good straight track horse. He's always been a good freshie and you ran well first up last prep. I've got it at a race in three. I think in dollar is much too short. Nico, what do you think? I thought war machine is definitely the best horse in the race and arguably should be very hard to beat. He's best is better than these and providing that Blake can get him up to the middle and be in sort of the right passage of the track. Then he's all going to be awfully hard to beat. But I'm a bit reluctant to get in here and say, well, launch. Because I wanted to sort of see him come back because I thought he was thought he would just turn up to pack it up and win. And obviously he wasn't right and yeah. All reports on the lead up to this that everything's going smoothly. His last trial looked good, but yeah, I just want to sort of see it on race day before I'm convinced he's hashtag back. And what do you think of the feature? Yeah, I mean, agree. Wasn't his self-last campaign and there were no obvious excuses. So you can't really point, you can't point to anything that were an easy forgive. But I think you just can forgive it though. Sometimes they just don't come up and he's in a good stable and he's well, three, eighties, my price. And that's sort of around what the market is now. How do you think the race will work out for him? I think they'll probably just try and roll across and set out. I know fans of I and star patrol you say are going to go, I thought they probably just roll up underneath them. I think I think so. Like, well, I mean, what are they going to do? They're a small fear. They might just all come together. Yeah. I mean, there might be three of them abreast. So, yeah, I mean, I have no real qualms with Barry one at all. I don't, it doesn't really matter. I don't think 60 and a half hardly any impulse for a group one or so many groups over us. Well, we carried 16 the Gil guy didn't he? Yeah, just on the Gil guy, I like, I know he beat that. He beat that, he beat that, he beat Bridal Worlds. Yeah. I just have, like, that's a big number and then he was well backed in the Everest actually after that. I just have a little bit of a, I have a little bit of a, market as a big opinion of him. Oh, with market has a big opinion of that number and I just sort of have a concern whether he just found the right part of the track that day and went away from them and maybe, maybe that's wrong, maybe that he has that in the locker in his group one. I think the, the Gil guy number, he's a better number than the striker number that might be controversial. But even if he does, what is a sprinter? Yeah, I mean, even if he does run to his typical level, I think he's a 380 chance, I can soak you, I don't think he's much worse than him and I think he's much more, I think he's much more likely to get a bit more. He's a sick of Arkansas kid. Well, no, he's not a prolific winner. Well, he's, he's a very good horse. I've never said that but I just said he's not a prolific winner. He runs well but not doesn't very often win. Well, he can win here. I marked him $6. Star Patrol's one where you look at him, he's had 270 days between runs. He had 315 days between runs last preparation and then 336 days between, so they can only get three runs into him per campaign. But you know, normally when you say that, you don't really like you think, no, I'm feeling if you're on this, I don't really want to give him a number that, you know, at least somewhere near his best. But, Kleiner McDonough does a really good job with this horse where they have him absolutely fit ready to go because they know they can't get more than three runs out of this horse because he, you know, he's not, he's not sound. He's not a sound horse this horse. So he used eight as well as aging. So maybe he's not going to be at that level but I don't think he needs to be. So I marked him around $8. Kotan and Teaks probably been well supported and no, don't quite get it. I could be wrong. I don't, I couldn't make it single figures. I think it's forcing it to make it single figures. Maybe not on ratings, but just over 1200 meters. Like 14, 600 meter horses, you know, they sometimes it just, well, a lot of the time. It just doesn't convert to, you know, anyway, and dollar as well looks very short to me at $5.1 one the center in a lane in disgustingly slow time. Just, I don't know, I don't know about him and I don't know what to do with him, but I just can't make him short enough to make him any money. - Let's prove almost, anyway. - Anyway, that's enough. - That's enough. - Still can be out rubble. - Well, that's the feature. - It is the feature. - Let's move on to race eight. This is where my best bet comes up. Benchmark 100 over 1400 meters. - Hmm. - Now we've got Sassapil here who is our $2.30 - From? - From? - She does. $2.50 into $2.30. From Dutch SZU $5.10, your mum is $7.50, your Rosadorn $8.50, your co-verlone $11, and run Harry one. It's worth noting that he's dual accepted currently in Sydney. - Haved it up there, I think. - He is for sure. - For sure. - So interesting which way he goes. - Super last time. - He was. - He was. - Wonder if he would do a cure. - A mil-dure a cup. - God bless his cotton socks. - And he's a bad blood. - He's important for this race because he is one of the main speed influences in it. He draws Barry one and Sassapil draws Barry a two. I'm gonna make Sassapil my best of the day. This is a potential group on horse. She was a dominant group to winner in the CUNY stage, going back to last preparation. She's got a fantastic racing pattern. She can go forward, she can sit on speed. She can sit on a tempo fast or moderate and sprint off it. I just think she's gonna get complete control here from Barry to whether that's sitting outside lead or in the 1-1. I don't think she'll lead. Logan Bates takes a killer off or a killer on a half. I think he can only take a killer off. Minimum riding weight is 52 kilos. But if you look at her last three ratings adjusted to 52, she's just so well in. I love the most racing jump out. And one of the biggest things is she gets a good truckier. So it's not even like she's resuming on a soft truck. And what we know is the second and third-fair with such a zoo and 10 commandments are complete mudlarks. - Yeah, well what I sort of initially, I sort of saw this race and I thought Sassapil might be a little bit vulnerable here. But when you're deep dive it, I think there's been some really good horses that have been progressive through the winter. It's time we just park them up now. That's just who she's ninth up. She's got to be getting to the end. There cannot be any more improvement left in her and I think she would need to find it to win. 10 commandments, he's gonna start to level out against this sort of greater horse. Call of a lontite, she's been flying, but she's got 62 kilos. So you put a pen through those three, run Harry Runs, Locker to run in Sydney. Then you're down to Craig and just to deal well, they're not good enough. So you've got Ryze at dawn there and he's a great consistent benchmark in this sort of great of race, but he can't possibly be competitive with her at the weight scale, I wouldn't have thought. So yeah, I think Sassapil is a dominant favourite here and she looks very hard to beat. - You're warm into her. I had a good question for your boys at dinner. - Well now that, like when I did the race properly, first look, I thought maybe she's a little bit vulnerable here, but when you're deep dive it properly and you break each horse down as you go through and you break the race down, it's a lot more clear cut than what I originally thought first. - Yeah, two horses that are on the rise, Sassapil and also Sam Lines horse, which name is Gapes? - I call it Connie. - Con called Connie, which one are you taking into the spring? Sassapil or Con called Connie, which one has the better spring? - I said Con called Connie, purely because I think there might be a little bit more substance there, but you'd be happy to own either of them. But as we sort of touched on earlier, like over at dinner, we spoke about Tennessee Bound and again earlier. As you rise up in the grade, these horses that are able to just to be able to absorb race pressure and just sit a little bit further back, all that takes is one of these horses to be in a race with a Rurang at 50 to 1, that goes forward and can just ruin your chances. Like, Sassapil can be able to roll forward and handle pressure in a group one race. Like, I think it would just be easier for a horse that can settle further back like Con called Connie's position, where we know she sprints good off at tempo. I don't know, to me, I just think Con called Connie's got maybe a little bit more in her arsenal than an a little bit more. - I think the majority. - But you would love to own both of them because usually the further you are forward in a race, the better off you are. But to me, if both these fillies are going to be going towards an Empire Rose matriarch type races, I would prefer to have Con called Connie with the way that race will set up. - And I think the overwhelming sort of percentage of-- - She's got more sex in this Con called Connie. - Yeah, I think most people would agree Con called Connie is the one that they want to be with. - Sassapil is the winner. - Sassapil is going to win a lot of races with her racing pattern and we saw that - Correct. - But when she beat all the dancers sitting up on speed, I just looked it up there exactly the same, they rated the exact same. So-- - What have they won so far, which would be near enough to see what maybe Sassapil would have to win more? - Sassapil's won more because of the better races. - Con called Connie wouldn't have won that much yet. - Yeah, Sassapil definitely is one more. I think that-- - They both, I wouldn't be crying if you're on either. - Absolutely, I'd take Sassapil. Also because I think it's going to be campaigned more appropriately, I think they're going to aim up with Con called Connie in. - No, they're kicking off in us. - Yeah, but then they're racing. - They're racing. - Well aren't they going to go to the Golden Eagle? - No. - No. - I think they're going to go to the Empire Rose. - Oh, well, they'll probably meet the Empire Rose and it's going to be a great race. So I think I'd probably lean Sassapil. I just think she's-- - Is there a decent future for us for the-- - The Sassapil? - Or they both have about 15 bucks? - Yeah. - In the Empire. Is there a market for that? - Yeah. - Press the cough button, that's what it's there for. (laughing) - Just turn away. Yeah, at my opinion on this race, I don't really have one. I say Sassapil is really well-weighted obviously. And he's always improving. When are you talking about, oh is this gap gap? - You just keep, no, you just keep watching. - You're watching. - You're watching. - And I do think though that she'll have to be near or like at her absolute, but not absolute best, but near it anyway to beat a field of this quality, fit horses that have been racing through the winter. She's got to be close to enough through then. These horses need a win to get themselves in the better races, can't be taken too many Mulligans. - For sure, but they're still running at a level that is very good and she has to go past that. She's still very-- She's probably the best horse in this race in time and she does have a massive weight advantage obviously. But, and obviously, especially if run Harry runs, not here, she might be able to just control her race, which is going to be massive for her. But, you know, if we see three dollars, I think I'll probably backstats it to people. I think she's down. - You won't see three dollars. That's not key to listeners. - I can't help it. - Blots back in dream. - Yeah. - But, I'll just wait, Punners, you'll get three dollars on the day. - I'm not saying that. - I'll give you a spoiler alert. When my best bet in Sydney wins, you'll get better than three dollars. - Yeah. - I'll get a double. - There you go. - Maybe you just have to listen and find it. - Let's move on to the last. - In March, 78, 1100 meters, just like Gabby, $4 into $3.50 in favour from LPEB Dioro. - She's not as good as mum. - $6.50, well, that's no shock, isn't it? - She's just, her name'sakes. - Loving Gabby was what, a three time group one winner? - I loved her. - Nimbus $2,000, $7 for the Harry Potter fans out there from Naval Academy $7.50, and our man, Moby Dick, he's back, $10. - He'd be a good quidditch player, I reckon, or could see you flying around, trying to catch the golden snitch. - I could see you're getting absolutely tormented by the dementors, that's what I could see. The wolves that have a field date with him, the three headed dog. - Anyway, what are you back in? - I'm running it back with LPEB Dioro. I think an extra 100 meters here, drawn the right side, this horse looks awfully hard to beat. It just took him too long last time, took him until about 200 meter mark to find his feet and sort of relax and let down. I think the extra 100 meters here is about a half kilo, better off at the weights. With Radley's claim gets to 53, carried 53 half last time with Cartwright. And I think the question mark that I had on him last time was 1,000 meters and the soft ground, and he went really well, but I think back onto good ground, the extra 100 meters, this looked an absolute e-trace special to me. I would be very, very surprised if this horse isn't running into the money and looks a great winning chance to close out the day. And yeah, Necrion's flying at the moment, so this horse should only have improved from last time and looks a great bet. I thought just like Gabby, yes, she's a nice horse, but I thought she was vulnerable enough as favorite. I'd have L.P. Deoreau favorite. Beautiful. We've just had lucky Canada, you run second in the 200. Another gallant second to a Jamaican named Pail, I wonder if there's any relation to a self of Pail. Bought, who do you like in this race? Nothing, I think just like Gabby's the right favorite. She can mix her form a little harder. I don't even know what, she's run big numbers before. Well, you're backing L.P. Bay Deoreau, It was. Ballerats and 30 class two-star tickets would have should have arguably gone a lot closer last time Yeah, sure and now he's got more positives in his favor I don't think it's stupid to say that he's very well suited. No, I'm not saying that I'm just I'm just I think she should be favorite. I think she's the right favorite 1100 meters first up is some concern though I think a best Numbers have been around a thousand meters around tight turning tracks So this might not be the absolute best scenario for her. I didn't think she was gonna be but also you also have to factor in how She's had one girl straight, isn't she? I think I couldn't tell top my head. Yeah, um And also you have to factor in how well Mar and Johnston are going at the moment. It's it's hard not to think that she'll be somewhere near her best on Saturday Just based on how well the stable is going That's an incredible price or I can Potentially then that could be true especially in the early markets anyway I had a paybo or the same prices with the market though. Moby dick is A little bit interesting. He's probably been a little bit disappointing in his last two Without any real excuses Maybe it was probably the wrong I think the best case scenario for Moby dick is a really fast 1200 meters and But everyone he was flying early on his career with price Kenny was a horse that wasn't He makes it a little bit. I think it was really consistent early on But then he sort of then he stopped being so consistent. I think he won like his first three or four But some of his best performance have been on rain affected going as well We're not getting that on Saturday. No, um, yeah, I that's bad for me Yeah, I saw a bit of four dollars for just like Gabby. So I had a small bit on that but I'm on there not having Just a just a square off one nicoes one as well I think it's a crack in bit speaking of nicoes. Let's get over to your Sydney set. They are racing this one Sydney set Oh beautiful Rosalind gardens the rails out seven meters which could be a little bit interesting could make it a touch on Speed what do you like man? Race three is the Kia aura bloodlines to headlines handicap 1500 meters bench marks 72 I think we're looking at sort of Stakesgrade sort of horse running in a bench mark 72 horse number two Columbus is his name The son of done deal resumed very well first up Just a bit of track work at Newcastle was well supported one in ease in first gear Gets the services of Jay Mac for the second time in his career Jay Mac wrote him when he won on his maiden last preparation. This is a horse that can just continue to go through the grades Would love to have seen a bit of 360 $2.20 now is a little bit Disappointing but I think this horse will start in the red and I think this horse will win Yeah, he he looks the clear standout and Sydney for me and spoiler alert he is my selection for the podcast multi Is it an armageddon if this will be an armageddon are you pointing and shooting to the point to shoot no We're just gonna just wait no, but it will be an armageddon. I'm I'm like the drivers. I've had a lick. Yeah, I've balls and all So let's let's I lost one last week. So let's hope I don't lose this one otherwise we're gonna be just dry But it looks a fantastic back Columbus. I think he'll start odds on and I think the punters will really like the podcast multi this week So he's he's my selection leg number one kick it off nice and early beautiful one for what it's worth I completely agree He started a dollar 40 his last two including the maiden and then he won the benchmark 64 new cast for last time and His final 400 meters is just monstrous compared to the rest of his opponents He went two links faster than anything else to break the maiden and then last time he went three links faster than anything else late as well Do we want to touch on the other likely winning chance in Sydney, but there's not an official bet We will ace number six. Oh, I just want to mention as well that Columbus being a son of Dundeele. He is going to Continue to improve out and trip 100% yeah, I think there's two horses that are very interesting favorites at Rose your on Saturday One of them's that race number six in a race six number three Enviable a son of Frankle daughter. Oh, sorry daughter of Frankle was very very good last time. She looks hard to beat I just don't love staying at seven very longs You think she's looking for more ground now like you talking in fair lungs She's just like this is never do that again. That's my thing This is just a horse that I think will be well. I know it will be a lot better Overground so yes, it went for a kill last time like she's grouped to place She just went to Tico made enough. It would have been nothing more than track work gallop Well, it wasn't I watched the race, but um Yeah, I just I did to me I just thought well This is not really the right bet that I wanted to a steam into like she may win because there's no doubt she's the best horse in this race but to me I just You want to be ticking all your blocks as if you haven't a big bet and to me like it she She might just scrape through but I don't want to be launching into her Knowing full well. I'd feel like a dickhead if I back if I launch into it and knowing that I've got that Uncertainty about her staying at for the sin on the fans a little video No, I think she's the most likely winner, but what I'm saying is like I Wouldn't be also surprised if she was flat second up with Waller staying it No, but it would just be on top. I'm not I'm not I'm not betting though. I've only had the one bet and I will claim in if it wins absolutely Well, that's what punters do It's all good and well. We sit and he saying three horses names. I'm trying to give insight on to My selection process and how I've broken the race down so yeah, I would not be surprised if she won But I could also see why she could get beat. I want to give a bit of context to her. I'm taunting race seven number eight two Dollars fifty favorite for Jaymack and Chris Waller Went to a a new career peak the last time we saw him the big gray up in this race is the last time we did see him at the races It was 32 days ago. He beat big papa. That's good form 1400 meters stays up is fine Barry 12 is a little bit interesting, but I just query that off the 32 days and he was scratched after drawing barrier four on the Fourth of July at Rosehill Whether he had maybe a little issue maybe a little temperature maybe a little foot abscess These little things that you don't really find out And especially from Chris Waller you don't really find out that often unless their name is Winks or autumn glow They just get swept under the rug. So I'm not sure why it hasn't raced in over 30 days But if he returns in the form that we last saw him in He's the one so I'm having a little bit each way as well doing a nico But I do like that he's jumped out since and there is a chance I will be backing him on Saturday All right, the only other one worth mentioning is run how he run is duel accepted in that race eight up against it's a knockout and Narbold and punch lane and emmer it Niko Sunday Sunday we Salute one of the greatest jumpers in Australian racing history his name is Stern Idol It goes around in the crisp steeple chase for the very last time It's gonna be sad But Well, I don't see it as a positive that we won't get to see one of the very best if not the very best to do it Do it anymore, but these what is he? He's a second best jumper we've ever had in Australia I know I'm not a historian. He's the best jumper that I've ever seen but Chris would be number one wouldn't he well he's gone overseas so that's the usually the measuring spot can you help us out? Yeah, no, he'd be the best yeah, Chris number one So I'm not a jumping person, but I'd but I'd say that I mean if you didn't Chris nearly win the moral beat in the grand annual Then yeah, that's a great national yeah grand annual grand national. I'd say grand national Christmas going on at entry I'd say that you would have one in Japan Yeah, and he almost won in Japan the almost one the big one as well for no Christian win Japan He he almost won the 1973 grand national at entry which horse one in Japan that was a Muscoves. Yeah, that was another one. That was like 2008 the guy with the big the big You know the big whips the windmill whips. Yeah, the big roundhouse is anyway Renthouse to the back oh no, he's the best that I've seen in my time. I don't I don't really care about the past I only care about the present. Well, it's fitting anyway that he's running on the car. See oh, yeah, Karaz Karaz, yeah, come good But yeah, it's gonna be very sad to see Stern no longer but this will probably help the racefields That's probably the only shining light of it, but that shouldn't be you want to just explain why he's retiring as well Oh, well, he's retiring because it's a too hard for him to To race because he's gonna have 80 kilos. He's so good and when your rating gets that high There's only a handful of set weights and penalties races for the year where he's well in and It's not fair on the horse to ask him to carry 10 plus kilos more than his rivals because it's just 10 kilos is 10 kilos walk around with a 10 kilo bell and See how hard it is and you're gonna try and do that in heavy going over Three and a half thousand plus meters like it's just It gets to a point where it just becomes It's yeah, just not fair on the horse. So that's what it's come to. Yes, he's not getting any younger, but Yeah, I think the lack of opposition and the tasks that he faces each time he has to go to race is playing a part in it I give it was a competitive If it was a competitive rank of horses that he was racing against and wasn't fairly off at, you know, poorly off at the weights and I think there was a chance we would see him again next year, but you know, he's had a great career, he's got nothing left to prove. I'm sad that he's going out at San Dean and they're not going back to Belorat, so that's a positive. He would hate that joint. He's never won there. Yeah, that's true. He's been beaten there every single time, so. Yeah, what's his competition this week? Golden Garden? Well, I'll just pull up the race. Obviously we haven't got the finals yet. That'll be tomorrow, but so at the current nominations with weights, he's got 71 kilos, so he's very well in. All bad, he's at 42 hundred metres, but around San Dean, that's okay. Seeing for pieces got 69 kilos. Golden Gardens got 69 kilos. Andy Wins got a wishful nomination in there. Hit the road, Jack has got 67 and a half, and on Gatini's got 67, that's sort of all you need to know. So, yeah, the champ should get the fairytale ending that he deserves. There's 15 nominated with weights. Let's see how many accept, because we probably didn't touch on it, but horses, nominating hasn't been the issue for the lack of small fields. They've been nominating, but haven't been accepting. So, yeah, you would think for a race worth 100,000, one of the time-honored races that they should be accepting, but time will tell, come the weekend, but yeah, everything does align for the champ to get his very well-ending. Let's hope four of them accept, and I don't really care if the rest of them don't accept, but he should get to run. And if no one else wants to take him on, they shall let him run around. And everyone should get to club the champ and let him go around and collect the check for the last time. So, he's been a great horse. I'm going to really miss him. He's been a good austamie over the journey. He was a very good austamie at one all this year. So, it's going to be sad to see him go on, but yeah, there's some, you know, with him going, it probably evens up the ranks. And it probably won't be a bad thing for the sport without Sternot all there, as bad as that may sound. But the other two races, obviously the 120 hurdle, that's the 120 hurdle and the Grand National hurdle, obviously the Grand National hurdle is the feature on the weekend. It's worth 250,000. Yeah, the Cunning Fox looks awfully well placed for 69 kilos against his rivals, but with so many of them nominated for the 120 and the national. We won't waste any more time on that. We'll just wait and see who accepts. But, yeah, fair to say that the Cunning Fox Sternot double could be rather fruitful. - Something like that again. - Yeah, I'm keen to bet on Sternot all the way. If we get half a price, everyone kilos, he's thrown in the weights for the very last time and it's fitting. That he goes around in the crisp, giving crisp and. - To put it in perspective, I think when the sink for face beating last time, he had to give him 11 and a half kilos. Yeah, there's two kilos separating them. - Yeah. - Nah, it's, he looks clearly the one. If I'm not too hung over, I might have to drive out to Sanian. - Well, that's, I'm hoping to, I'm hoping to, uh, get a few things on this weekend, but I'm really hoping to get out there to watch him. - Beautiful. Uh, other midweek as well. There's racing at Glorious Goodwood. That's your international carnival going on right now. The big race tonight is the Sussex Stakes where there's three chances of bow echo. - And a lot of bow echo, even money, you start 350 and opera, bow 450. - Soak the events. - You're keen on the superstar three-year-old in bow echo. - Who only narrowly got the job done over Gostard at Royal Ascot in the St. James powers. - But. - There's levels. - There was, there was a couple of things that went wrong for him that night. He's going to get a good tempo with opera baller up front. I think he wins. I'm just a little bit scared. If opera baller puts everything together on the night, he goes a very fast tempo. He's, um, he's very much, uh. - Much, we're much, I'll just something up on Twitter because nothing runs going to hopefully. - Yeah. He's very much, opera baller is very much a team who, gay, out through, goes out hard and fun and can break their hearts. He almost went too hard last time around. And then tomorrow night, Diamond necklace. - Let's say he goes as good as gay, out in the Shagging Sheds. - Yeah, well that's hype because he's been a, he's been in fruitful sire for Australia and racing, hasn't he? - Yeah. - Well, like bought anything midweekies or around the grounds? - Nope. - We'll get our mate Roberto. He'll definitely ask us for something and I'll give him something once he gets to these questions. - I had a look before I can't really find anything. - All right. But we've got to get this podcast multi-off. And Nico, you're going first because, uh, as the clock lands on Saturday, your tip goes off the rank first. - Yep. We're going, Rose Hill race three, number two Columbus. Looks awfully hard to beat a horse that's going to further improve once he gets into better, greater races and, out in trip. But, um, yeah, this benchmark 72 for a horse that looks black type, looks awfully fruitful. Uh, expect this horse to start in the red. Expect him to win well. So hopefully that Armageddon truck that had a flat tire last week, he's probably not this week. - And my, uh, we're just going to go double bottom. I both agree the best winning chance at Flaminton on Saturdays. Race eight, number 10 in Sass appeal. Look, she is on return here, but she's a classy feeling. She won the CUNY in dominant fashion the last time we saw her at the races. She should control this race from barrier two, whether that's leading or outside lead up on the speed. Uh, and she gets her a good track. So no qualms there with resuming on what we've been racing on in racing times, which have been heavy tracks, which Dutch S0 10 commandments. Those types of horses have liked. She gets a good track. I think she'll be too good and I think she'll start around the even money mark. - So once you take the double bot, you'll get better than your three dollars that you want for Sass. - Okay. Well, in my view at least, I don't think there's any value in Sass appeal, but she definitely is the. - Well, they've all been when you've got a ticket. - And you're going to have $7. - And when you're the multi, you might get a boosted price, so we can offer that. - Yeah. Beautiful. - There you go. - Why don't we all? - You will never be a trader. - How good am I at marketing? - All right. Let's time for some podcast questions. We go over to you. - I hate it. It's time over. - The Twist here. Don't hide your excitement. The first one is from Rowan Greger. What was the most disappointing loss last week and in your eyes between Ice Cool, Cruiserweight and Kalanigan was also good to see Cosmic Crusader win by a mile. - Can I say it all fucking through? - You can. I agree. Cosmic Crusader was good to see him win nicely. I think the most disappointing. - Ice Cool was this at most disappointing. Maybe Cruiserweight for that, but I think this is this, you know. - Take your pick, Cruiserweight or Ice Cool. Kalanigan, Ramaha. - Well, Ice Cool was probably the least surprising. It was at hurt me the most, but he was the horse that's probably the worst of the three at this current point in time. And he still does a lot wrong in his races. He's gone with the end of his preparation. You probably could have shadowed that, not that I thought that was going to happen. - So you've changed tune a bit. - Cruiserweight was the hype starting to get too big. I think that he was ridden poorly and that was to his detriment. And Kalanigan, well, he's in one of the best races in the world, was given a lot to do. It's probably not as surprising that he got beat. Yes, it was disappointing, but his race was the hardest as a three to win. - Yeah. - CruiserCastar, with Stern Idol's last race, fast approaching. Which race of his stands out as his best? And should we be considering him as one of the great jumpers of all time down here? Well, for me, his best win of all time was probably this bull carnival. - He's probably this year was phenomenal. - With 75 kilos. - Yeah. - That will never happen again. - No. - No, he broke every record this year. - And he only got a prize. - And he made an absolute mess of the Tozerot double. - So this year was 100% his best win. - Oh, remember that. That was a good race. - It was. - Yeah. - The Armageddon was a wallable. - But he started like, I thought I'm 250 or 260. - Or something stupid. - Pay the Armageddon drivers to come out to win. - It might have been more than the winner for the win, but they were there. - It was a fill up. - And should we be considering him as one of the greatest jumpers of all time? - Yes. - Yes, we should. - He's definitely on the podium. He's probably number two. - Kearons had a few good jumpers and he said he's the best horse that - Yeah. - He's a sharp, he's a professional. - Eugene and Shelley up there. - Regina. - Shelley. He's had a few others that probably never got we never got to say the full potential of. - Mr. Brightside. He's tuning in. I'll Mr. B. He says, "Going down for NFL, then a quick backup into the McCoyby-Daver. Lake Forest Hall." - Yeah, we didn't touch on that. Lake Forest run around last night in some. - He won. - Moderate race. - He won. - And the ball with Arnie. Brave punters back at him and holds on. - Yeah. - And now he's a star. - Now he's heart broken, our slapped Bob, them in the Sussex. - It's an interesting one, isn't it? Backing up one day into a group one. It's. - It's far and over there, but it happens. Like horses do it at one of all. - Yeah. Yeah, but you just don't see it often. - No. - One day. - And into a group one. - Yeah. He's no cissier. I tell you that. - That's good gear. - Mr. Brightside though. He wants to meet up with us. NFL into the Mekaibe Diver. We won't be at the NFL, I don't believe. We don't have tickets. We're not the biggest NFL fans. - We might yet. - I don't know. It's maybe about 365, we can hug us up, but. - Box will be good. Mekaibe Diver is that. Is that what they plan to do at your birthday? - Yeah, I won't be on track with Mekaibe Diver. - I guess that's it. But we'll catch up at some point in the spring. - Yeah, see ya, Rob's. Ginger Nights 78. Can we get a spring. - No photos at Rob's, see ya. - Fones in the phone box. Can we get a spring mug multi? - No. - Yeah. - Yeah. - Okay, Rob's. - Fine, okay, okay. - She's an Elevoid. - She's an Elevoid. - Oligo Eagle. - Oligo Eagle. - Autumn glow, King Jones. - Oh, but that's against Shee's Alibi potentially. - Oh, yeah, true. - Maybe just a couple. - You can have, you can have, - Stern Idol on Sunday. - Hey, that we, oh, well, you can take, take Nick Day Costa with the Brown Low. (laughs) - Moral, absolute moral, it's over. - Well, come back to you as one next week. Let's see more futures market stock. - All right, all right, yeah. I think there's some more going up this week. Casual call outs says King Kalo is back in South Australia on Saturday boys. - I saw that. - I said, "F-Year, "Main event is back on in the jockey's room." - King must've got himself in too much trouble with Green's own. - I think Stacey's right, and then Kalo. - If people don't understand that reference, Kalo does enjoy a bit of a 50 cups. - Yeah. - He's loose to the King. - He is. Anyway, Roman Kalo after last, Casual call outs says it's back. Bet log, Blake Shin the goat, man's paid for my groceries for months. - Glad he's back. - Well, he hasn't been paying for too many groceries of late. - Yeah. (laughing) - Bet log, you've been on some stuff. He hasn't been riding recently. - Has it written for nearly a year? - But we know what you mean. He's been a good man to you in the past. Bow echo to a Saturday multi-lads. Yep, you can take Bow echo into the podcast multi if you listen to this in time. - Yep, 100%. - Ryan Patton, what's more costly? Nico's weekly wig shop or Will Alfred? Will Alfred, I don't know, what's, oh, as Bet Legends called him. Did someone call you Will Alfred? - Yes. - Okay. What's more costly? Nico's weekly wig shop or Will Alfred's weekly podcast multi-selections? - I haven't had a podcast multi-selection last week. - Oh, you've been here to make it. - To bet you can close me to Pond Out. - 50 bucks. - To be fair, but I think you've lost a couple of best bets of actually down well. - I would say the Pond Out. - Custom last week. - I don't know, I can't remember. - It wasn't the week before, 'cause you wouldn't have those bloody stain horses. - Yeah, but the week before that, you had that my woo-bar, my woo-bar. - Yeah, I don't know. - So I think you had, I reckon you had two out of the last four for your best. Cory Burke is Nico ready for the must see heavyweight clash of a lifetime on Sunday. Golden Crusader versus innovation. (laughing) - Yeah, well, it's too hard to know who's what he's gonna accept. I'm gonna show you what it's gonna be those two. - Thursday morning, exceptances. Tomorrow, yeah. Should have failed that because there's, I had a look at before, the nominations for the flat races. It's always a race day that's well supported because obviously it's in the new season. So all the big dogs are riding on Sunday. - Are they in the good race? Or are they in the one? - They'll be in the one 20. - In the one 20. Who would you have on top out of those two? - Well, if something else that was to go there, wouldn't even have those two on top. - But head to head. - Gold, what weight, so they got, I don't know, four of those. I'll tell you, just give me two seconds, I'll be able to do it. Golden Crusader's got 69.5 and innovations got 68.5. I would have golden Crusader on top. - Racing enough, how far? Bow echo, yep, Nico's keen. 44th Ann, Robert, Roberto. You know what I'm after, XX. This is our man who always asks us for a midweek tip. And I'm gonna give him one that Ben Asgari is keen on tomorrow. I'm working the meeting with him at Bendigo. Race four, I have number nine, our Justify for Craig Neuer and Jerome Hunter. - I know that horse. - Going well, this preparation, $2.60 favorite. It's my midweek fill up. - I know that horse. It was big splits two starts ago. - Well, there's a horse going around, if you really want to midweek fill up, there's a horse going around tomorrow at the inner track at Kemberley Grange. That capture me, it runs second to Gerido last time. It's like a doll 60, but there you go. - If you etching, that'll win. - A member double. A couple of Instagram ones to finish us off. Jack Jenner, are we loading Stern Idol on Sunday? - Yes. - Yes. Zave Erickson is 29th of August, first day of spring racing. - 29th of August. That's the first group once, Memesie Stakes. - Is that Memesie Stakes day? - Yeah, we probably would consider that the first day of spring. - Would you? - The Winx Stakes is the week before and after. - Oh yeah. Yeah, maybe Winx, first group one is probably the first official start of spring. So we're still a little way away from that. Darcy Daly, Beeshin, first Saturday meeting back times War Machine equals Moral and Capital Letters. Well, I love it. I think Blake Shin can genuinely ride a treble on Saturday. Vince Aladdin, who is the bigger cat bought for sitting out of the podcast multi or whatever the F ice-coated ice-coated? - Ice-coated. - Ice-coated. - I didn't have a, I don't get a saying these things, guys. (laughing) - Well, if you had a been in the podcast multi, your selection would have got up. - Well, it wouldn't have mattered if it was your life. - However, it doesn't matter because, yeah, those two were disappointing. You're still the biggest cat. Ice-coated. - Yeah, forgive. - Fair. - Kube-Selwyn, I'm starting to get hay fever. Does that mean the good horses are coming back? - Yes, sir. - Could mean many things, Kube-Selwyn. Stu Ferrenti, but yes, the good horses are starting to come back and Cosmic Crusader was probably our first little look at a group horse. Stu Ferrenti, Boeko, Gustard or Opera Ballot tonight who you got. - Yeah. - We're Boeko on top that I'm a little bit scared of Opera Ballot because I thought he was mighty into feet at Ascot. And the last question is also, what the F did but do to my horse, RIP engine of war? - What? You ran big last week. - Yeah, sad development that engine of war he's come out and ran second. He's not dead. However, racing career could be in jeopardy. - Oh, why, what happened? - He's down a tendon. - Oh, that's not good. - Or there was at least heat in the joint area near the tendon. So I think he may have his skin last week. - He might have done a tendon. I don't know if that's public news yet, but anyways, he's got 500 owners. So hopefully, some 500. - He's got more than that. - Well, he's got probably got 1500 owners engine of war with my racehorse. So anyway, that will get out eventually. All right, thank you boys. Have a good weekend this weekend punters and hopefully we can get a fill up and get another podcast multi on the board. - We will touch on Sunday on Twitter, like usual. - Since joining bet 365, I think the podcast multi is - One twice. - Two from five or two from six? - Two from six. - However. - And $8 collecting a $4 collecting. - So we're just in front. If you've, if you've staked it, if you had $100 in every single one, you'd be in front. - More than just in front. - Yeah, you'd be well in front. Two out of six. That's going out 33%. - Yeah, one was $8 and one was $4. - Yep, so you'd be doubling your money. - You're nearly doubling it in front. - Yeah. - So we're still going all right. Hopefully we can make it through. - So you're going to win every week, but um. - No, it's not. - No, you're still in front. You're still playing with this. - Hopefully we can make it three from seven this week. Before we join bet 365, we had a couple win there as well. But obviously we don't count those ones. - No. - All right, see you potters. Be back here next Wednesday night. You win some, you lose more for free and confidential support. Visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.