August 31st, 2026: Iran’s Trade Is Collapsing and Gas Lines Are Growing & Trump’s G20 Pressure Campaign

It's Monday, the 31st of August. Now, if you're keeping score at home, that would make it the last day of the month. I'm assuming that pumpkin spice, everything, is just around the corner. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Alright, let's get briefed. The first up, missiles and drones are flying again in the Iran conflict while the US economic pressure is starting to hit hard inside Iran. As foreign trade collapses, oil exports dry up and gasoline lines grow across the country. Later in the show, the Trump administration takes its economic war against Iran to the G20, telling major economies to choose between the Iranian regime and access to the American financial system. Plus, President Trump confirms a sweeping agreement that will give the US control over a major share of Venezuela's enormous oil reserves. And in today's back of the brief, the Iranian regime releases a written message supposedly from Iran's Missing Supreme Leader, but still no proof or evidence that Moustab al-Habani is actually alive. But first today's PDB spotlight. In a brief update on the kinetic side of this conflict, the US military reported that it targeted two revolutionary guard launchers on Leric Island off of Iran's coast on Sunday. According to the US military, the launchers were preparing to deploy sea mines into the strait of Hormuz. In retaliation, the IRGC targeted US facilities in Jordan, with Jordanian officials saying they intercepted several Iranian missiles approaching their territory. We'll have further news on this latest action. On the economic side of the conflict, for six months, Iran's leaders have insisted that their country can withstand whatever economic pressure Washington sends its way. But over the weekend, the regime offered one of its clearest acknowledgments yet that the pressure is beginning to bite. Iranian President Mesut Pazeshkin says his country's foreign trade has fallen nearly 35% because of US sanctions and the naval blockade of Iranian ports. Annual inflation reached 66% last month. And a message written supposedly by the absent Supreme Leader Moustab al-Habani calls on the government to address rising prices, unemployment, and growing economic hardship. Most revealingly, Pazeshkin is publicly advocating for a return to the interim agreement that Tehran and Washington reached back in June. That agreement or Memorandum or whatever we call it, briefly eased sanctions and allowed Iran to resume oil sales. Pazeshkin says Iran managed to export approximately 90 million barrels while it was in effect. He said, quote, "We can solve our problems and gain our privileges with the Memorandum of understanding." Now that's not an offer to surrender. And Iran's hardliners are continuing to promise resistance. And of course, it's unclear whether Pazeshkin has any actual authority or sway within the current regime leadership. Now the clearest explanation for Pazeshkin's public statement can be found in Iran's oil industry. The US resumed its blockade of Iranian shipping and ports on July 13th, cutting into Tehran's primary source, of course, of hard currency. Ship tracking data indicates that no supertanker, carrying newly loaded Iranian crude, has visibly crossed the state of Hormuz since then, though some vessels may be operating without their location transponders. China remains, of course, Iran's dominant oil customer, but its imports of Iranian crude have fallen sharply. Chinese buyers imported an average of approximately 1.4 million barrels per day last year. In August, that figure fell to roughly 534,000 barrels per day. Iranian crude has normally offered at a steep discount because buyers risk violating American sanctions. But the remaining supplies have become so scarce that some Iranian oil was recently being offered at a premium. Iran is still receiving money from oil that's loaded before the blockade tightened. Millions of barrels remain aboard ships in Asian waters, and payments often arrive weeks after delivery. But that stockpile is being steadily depleted, with little newly exported oil available to replace it. And now, the pressure is beginning to appear at Iran's gas stations. Iran consumes more gasoline than it can currently produce. Domestic refineries are operating near their limit at approximately 130 million liters per day, while Iranians consume at least 137 million. Imports previously help cover that gap. The blockade, of course, has largely cut those imports off. Long lines have formed outside gasoline stations across Tehran, with some drivers reportedly waiting two hours or more. The government may soon have to reduce subsidized gasoline quotas, impose stricter rationing, or raise prices to curb demand, and any of those options could carry serious political risks. A sudden gas price increase helped ignite nationwide protests back in 2019. Iran's latest wave of unrest also began with economic grievances before spreading across the country in January, at which point, of course, the regime crushed the protests by killing thousands of their own citizens. Meanwhile, Iranian households are facing food inflation of 128 percent. Iranians are cutting meat and other staples from their diets, while the falling value of the real continues to erode wages. The dollar value of Iran's minimum wage, as fallen even after the government, approved a substantial raise. Tehran appears to understand where all that pressure could lead. Earlier this month, the government placed Hussein Tayyid. He's a veteran hardliner associated with previous crackdowns in charge of the besiege militia. Now, that's the force that Iran's rulers have repeatedly used to suppress protests. That is an indicator of both what the regime fears, an increasingly rest of an angry population, and how they intend to deal with that potential civil unrest. They killed their way out of the last series of protests, and it appears that they don't intend to change their game plan for any future unrest. Alright, coming up next, Washington pressures the G20 to cut ties with Iran, as President Trump confirms a sweeping deal, giving the US control over a major share of Venezuela's oil reserves. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. With a tip on how to jumpstart your day. Now, here's what I've been doing. I've been trying to rethink my morning routine lately, especially when it comes to just how much caffeine, I actually need in the morning. And that's where mudwater comes in. 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This week, he's sitting down with the world's largest economies and asking them to get behind an American push to reshape global trade, confront China's economic practices, and further isolate Iran. And considering some of those same countries are already fighting with Washington over tariffs, Besent has a significant chore ahead of him. Finance ministers and central bank governors from the G20 are gathering an Asheville, North Carolina today and tomorrow. Some of you will remember that Besent stayed away from the G20 process last year when South Africa was in charge. Now the U.S. is hosting, and he wants to put American leadership and the Trump administration's economic world view back at the center of the conversation. But the first problem Besent has to get through is tariffs. Every G20 country and the EU has already been hit with new US tariffs while Washington's trade fight with Canada has grown increasingly bitter. So Besent is asking these governments to buy into Washington's argument that the global trading system needs to change while they're simultaneously dealing with America's effort to change it. From the Trump administration's perspective, China is a prime example of why that change is necessary. Beijing has spent years supporting its manufacturing sector while demand that home has remained weak, pushing enormous amounts of Chinese products into foreign markets. With Trump's tariffs making the American market much harder to access, more of those products are now flowing into Europe. And that's where Besent may be having opening. European governments are increasingly worried that heavily supported Chinese products could overwhelm their own industries. So while Europe may disagree with Trump over tariffs, Washington and Brussels increasingly see the same problem coming out of China. The harder part is convincing Beijing to change, of course, and so far China has shown little interest in reducing industrial subsidies or its dependence on exports. The Besit will also face questions about America's own economy, large US deficits, and growing government borrowing have raised concerns about American debt and higher treasury bond yields. And then of course, well, there's Iran. The war has pushed energy prices higher while uncertainty around the state of Hormuz continues to hurt growth across the G20. But instead of backing away from Tehran, Washington wants these governments to increase the pressure. As we've discussed on the PDB, the Besit has warned countries that they could face secondary US sanctions if they continue buying Iranian oil or helping the regime conduct financial transactions. China, of course, is the wild card in Trump's Operation Economic Outcast plan, that's the name given to the increased pressure campaign on Iran's economy. As Iran's largest economic lifeline and trading partner, China's decision to either cooperate with or ignore the White House's plan could make a break the overall effort. OK, I want to shift now to Venezuela, where President Trump says the US has secured majority control over proven oil reserves in a deal that could give Washington a new source of energy much closer to home. Trump says the agreement won't cost American taxpayers anything, and he believes bringing all of this additional oil onto the market will eventually help substantially lower gasoline prices. Trump announced the deal Friday on Truth Social, saying Secretary of State Marker Rubio and Secretary of Defense, or War, whichever you prefer, had Pete Exeth, worked alongside Venezuela's interim president, Delsey Rodriguez, and private business to secure what he called "majority-us-control" of more than 65 billion barrels of proven oil reserves. So let's get into exactly what that means, shall we? The US is simply being given 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil. Instead, Rodriguez, as granted a private company, formed through a partnership between the US government and a private operator, long-term rights to develop strategic oil fields will do a follow-on story, and identify and talk about this private operator in Venezuela. The US would effectively control 55% of the company's output to an ownership stake, and the right to purchase oil from the venture at cost. If everything goes according to plan, this new company would become the second largest corporate holder of proven oil reserves worldwide, behind only Saudi Aramco. To give you some idea of the scale we're talking about, Venezuela is sitting on roughly 300 billion barrels of proven reserves. That's more than Saudi Arabia, which has about 265 billion, and more than six times the proven reserves in the US. The 65 billion barrels, covered by this agreement, amount to more than one-fifth of that enormous supply. As production increases, an American official familiar with the agreement says crude, purchased at cost could also be used to help refill the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and supply the US military. But Washington isn't the only one seeing it upside here. In a late-night address Saturday on State TV, Rodriguez called the agreement "historic," saying it would help revive Venezuela's economy, and increase government revenue. She also says the bilateral agreement will remain in place for 25 years. Rodriguez said, quote, "This project envisions the development of 17 strategic oil fields with a production target of more than 1.5 million barrels per day." Rubio says the agreement could also bring nearly $100 billion in private investment into Venezuela, support thousands of high-paying jobs, and help rebuild an economy, fractured by years of socialist mismanagement. Now, I want to point out that Rodriguez stressed that Venezuela will still retain ownership and sovereignty over its natural resources, and that's an important distinction. Venezuela would continue owning the oil beneath its territory, while Trump is describing American control over the venture that's developing and producing much of it. And Venezuela has plenty of reason to want American help. Despite having the world's largest proven oil reserves, the country currently produces only about 1.25 million barrels per day. Since the Trump administration removed Maduro in January, Washington has been pushing American companies to return to Venezuela and help rebuild the industry that was badly damaged by years of international sanctions. Many, up to this point, have been reluctant, but this agreement could change their calculation. For Trump, there's also a broader strategic benefit. The war with Iran has exposed the vulnerability of oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz, which, normally, carries roughly one-fifth of the world's petroleum. Developing more Venezuelan oil under a US-controlled venture would give Washington another enormous source of crude, much closer to home, while potentially, helping replenish the strategic petroleum reserve and put downward pressure on gasoline prices. All right, coming up in the back of the brief. A written message supposedly, or allegedly, or purportedly, from Iranian Supreme Leader Mustafa Hamani calls for Muslim unity against Iran's enemies. Even as a Supreme Leader, it remains nowhere to be seen. More on that when we come back. Let me take you to a moment to talk about your security, specifically your online security. Look, in a world full of data breaches, keeping your personal life private, well, it can feel like a full-time job. And if you're like me, your privacy and the privacy of your loved ones is very important. 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If you owe money to the IRS, whether it's $5,000 or $50,000 or $500,000, TRA has a solution to your tax problem. Don't lose hope. TRA could reduce or even eliminate what you owe to the IRS. Their passion is taxes and helping individuals and businesses fix their IRS problems. They have over 1,000 5 star Google reviews and an 8 plus with a better business bureau. Here's the thing, you do not need to be afraid of the IRS any longer. Generous tax relief programs are now available that can give you a fresh start. So don't wait. Simply visit tra.com that's tra.com or call the number 800-583-6515 once again that's 800-583-6515. Tax relief advocates, real solutions for real people. In today's back of the brief, last week we continued raising questions about whether Iran's Supreme Leader, Mustafa Hamani, is actually running the country or if he's even alive. Well, perhaps the regime was listening to the PDB. This weekend a new message attributed to Hamani appeared on his telegram account, who he's got a telegram account. It was released for Islamic Unity Week, which marks the birthday of the Prophet Muhammad. Now the message, supposedly from the Supreme Leader, urged Muslim governments, especially those in the Gulf, to unite against what the written message called their "real enemy". The message called for greater cooperation and mutual defense among Islamic countries. It also warned that anyone creating divisions among Muslims, either knowingly or unknowingly, was helping Islam's enemies. Now the message asked whether Palestinians would have been left so helpless if Muslim countries had been united. Is recommendation, or somebody's recommendation, or whomever wrote this message? To Gulf rulers, quote, "identify your real enemy, understand his plan, and confront it," end quote. Now that appeal is rather remarkable, and apparently they have no sense of self-awareness considering that Iran has spent the past six months launching drones and missiles into a variety of Gulf countries, including Bahrain, the UAE, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait. But the substance of the message is really secondary to the way it was delivered. Mustafa Hamani still has not been seen or heard publicly, since he was reportedly injured in the US Israeli strikes that launched the war in February. Those attacks killed his father Ali Hamani, along with other senior Iranian officials. Once then, the regime has repeatedly insisted that Mustafa is recovering and continues to govern. Iranian media has released archive footage showing him before he became supreme leader. Statements have appeared under his name, officials continue to speak, as if he is directing the country. But what Iran has not produced is Mustafa Hamani himself. There was no live address accompanying this weekend's message, no newly recorded video or audio, nothing demonstrating the jama money personally wrote it, dictated it, or approved it. The statement could well have been drafted by anyone. It could have been assembled from his previous remarks. It could simply represent Iran's governing institutions, whatever that leadership looks like early, speaking in the Supreme Leader's name. Without actual evidence, the Hamani is alive, and in sufficient health to be in charge, doubts continue to grow over his status, and over the question of who actually runs the Iranian regime. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief from Monday, the 31st of August. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at [email protected]. And I hope you had a chance to catch our weekend show, and that's the PDB situation report. As always, we had excellent guests providing insight and analysis on key topics of the week, and yet still no house band, not even a theme song. You can catch it in past episodes on our YouTube channel, @PresidentStaleyBrief, and on podcast platforms wherever you get your podcast stuff. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. [BLANK_AUDIO]