August 28th, 2026: Is Iran’s Supreme Leader Dead? & Moscow Targets Britain

I break down the new wars and weapons systems that are totally reshaping our world in my show Kappy Army, but we go beyond simply just telling you what happened in a war, we actually investigate deeper into the why and how. At Kappy Army, everything is informed by my experience as an average US Army infantryman in Iraq, and a war correspondent covering the front lines of the war in Ukraine. Just search Kappy Army on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to get weekly open source intelligence reports and remember to follow today. It's Friday, the 28th of August. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right. Let's get briefed. First up, Iran insists that Mustafa Hamani is still governing, but nearly six months without a verified appearance, does beg the question, is the supreme leader even live? Later in the show, Russia threatens to strike British military targets inside and outside Ukraine over Kiev's use of long-range British missiles. I mean, that would be like Ukraine threatening to strike North Korea, Iran and China over Russia's use of their munitions to support Putin's invasion. Plus, the Trump administration places Palestine action alongside Hamas and Al-Qaeda on America's list of global terrorist organizations. And in today's back of the brief, a catastrophic landslide and glacier collapse unleashes deadly flooding across Nepal and Tibet, leaving at least 360 dead and over 1,400 missing. The first in today's PDB spotlight. The question is Iran's supreme leader, debt. That question is gaining renewed traction after nearly six months without a verified public appearance from Mustafa Hamani. The man selected as the new supreme leader after his father was killed in the opening strike of the current conflict. President Trump says he believes Hamani is still alive. Speaking with Glenn Beck this week, Trump said Mustafa was severely wounded in the February strike that killed his father, the previous Ayatollah Ali Khamani. According to Trump, the entire left side of Mustafa's body, including his arm and leg, were badly injured. But Trump acknowledged that he can't be certain that Mustafa survived. The president said his belief is based partly on the behavior of Iranian negotiators who repeatedly claimed that they must first consult with the supreme leader before making final decisions. Trump said that if Mustafa is dead, Tehran is putting on a convincing performance while I for one would be shocked if Iranian negotiators were being less than truthful. Iranian negotiators saying that they must consult the supreme leader is obviously not evidence that those consultations are actually happening. It could be true. It could also be a negotiating device that allows Iranian officials to delay decisions, avoid responsibility or reject an American proposal by invoking an authority that nobody else can reach. And that brings us to the more important question. Even if Mustafa Hamani is alive, is he actually governing Iran? There's currently no independently verified evidence that he's in the decision-making loop. Mustafa has now made a confirmed public appearance since he was selected as supreme leader back in March. Iran has released no authenticated photograph, video or audio recording of him. His absence became especially difficult to ignore during his father's funeral ceremonies in July. Three of Ali Hamani's sons appeared publicly beside their father's coffin. Mustafa, the son who inherited the most powerful office in Iran, was nowhere to be seen. He did not deliver a speech, release an audio message or appear in a verified photograph. And then last week Mustafa supposedly hosted another enormous wake for his father in Tehran. He was attended, including prominent political figures and several members of the Hamani family. But Mustafa was a no-show. Iranian media has attempted to answer the growing questions, earlier this month, the semi-official mayor news agency released a video lasting less than 15 seconds that appeared to show Mustafa speaking with several men. But the video contained no date or location. Analysts also noted similarities to older footage, meaning it did not establish that Mustafa had recently been live, let alone, governing. And official with Iran's besiege militia, subsequently promised that new footage would be released, showing Mustafa in public and meeting military commanders. That footage has not appeared. Maybe they haven't figured out how to do it yet with AI. Iranian President Masood Pizestian claims he spent seven hours meeting with Hamani and late July to discuss the war and Iran's deteriorating economy. But Pizestian has offered conflicting descriptions of his access to the supreme leader. At one point he said their interactions were increasing. Later, he acknowledged that communicating with Mustafa had become extremely difficult. The Atlantic now reports that fewer than five people may have met with Mustafa since he became supreme leader. For Minister Abbas Arachi, himself a member of Iran's National Security Council reportedly admits that he has not seen him. Meanwhile, statements, religious rulings and military appointments continue to appear under Mustafa's name. But every one of those orders has been delivered in writing or announced by somebody else. There's no way for outsiders and perhaps many Iranian officials to know whether Mustafa personally considered those decisions, approved them, or even knew about them. Now none of this proves categorically that he's dead. The security explanation is plausible. Mustafa would be an obvious target for another American or Israeli strike, and a live appearance of course could reveal information about his location. His injuries also reportedly include severe facial disfigurement. Iran's leadership may believe that showing a badly wounded supreme leader could project weakness at a moment when the regime is fighting for survival. Those explanations do not establish that he remains capable of governing. Sources inside Iran have reportedly been speculating that Mustafa either died from his injuries or is brain dead, and appeal also circulated on an Iranian messaging service, asking people to pray for his health and sacrifice sheep on his bath. Seriously, now I'm not a doctor, but I'm not sure that sacrificing a sheep is still considered sound medical advice. And if Israeli intelligence knows the truth, it may have little reason to resolve the mystery publicly, leaving Iranian officials unsure about the condition of the supreme leader could deepen mistrust and factional conflict inside the regime. In Mustafa's absence, Iran's National Security Council, and of course the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC, appear to be exercising enormous authority, reformists favoring negotiations, and hardliners demanding continued confrontation, I suppose can each claim that the invisible supreme leader supports their own respective position. That arrangement may keep the government operating, but it makes it increasingly difficult to determine who possesses the authority to end the war or escalate it. All right, coming up next, Russia threatens British military targets over Ukraine's missile attacks, while Washington designates British sabotage group Palestine Action as a global terrorist organization. I'll be right back. 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We actually investigate deeper into the why and how at capy army, everything is informed by my experience as an average US Army infantryman in Iraq and a war correspondent covering the front lines of the war in Ukraine. Just search capy army on Apple podcast or Spotify to get weekly open source intelligence reports and remember to follow today. Welcome back to the PDB. I want to turn now to the war in Ukraine because Russia is explicitly threatening to strike British military targets both inside and outside Ukraine in retaliation for Kyiv's growing use of British weapons against targets inside Russia. And while Moscow has issued similar warnings before, we should note that the rhetoric coming from the Kremlin on Thursday was unusually forceful and urgent. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zacharova warned that Britain is now just quote "one step away" from becoming legally complicit in what Moscow honorically considers terrorism against Russian civilians, threatening what she called "inevitable catastrophic consequences" unless London changes course. Someone should inform the Foreign Ministry spokeswoman that Putin's invasion of Ukraine might well be considered terrorism against Ukraine's civilians. She might be confused over who started the war. And then came the part that she'd get NATO's attention. Zacharova warned that British military installations and equipment in Ukraine and beyond its borders could become targets for Russia if Kyiv continued striking Russian territory with British weapons. She went on to accuse London of pursuing a hostile and aggressive policy that risks escalating the conflict to quote an entirely new level. Now as I mentioned, Russia has made versions of this threat before. They do tend to "saber-rattle" whenever things aren't going quite their way. But Western analysts say the intensity of Moscow's latest warning appears to reflect its anger over a significant new development announced earlier this week. On Monday, Britain agreed to give Ukraine access to classified technology that will allow Kyiv to begin producing its own storm-shadowed cruise missiles. The missiles developed jointly by Britain and France give Ukraine the ability to hit targets deep inside Russian territory. In helping Kyiv manufacture them domestically, that could eventually make Ukraine less dependent on limited Western stockpiles and give it a more sustainable supply of long-range weapons. France has already agreed to license its portion of the technology, which helps explain why Moscow's warning wasn't directed solely at London. Zacharova accused both Britain and France of "playing with fire," warning that supplying Ukraine with sensitive missile technology could have unpredictable consequences. But for its part, Britain is not backing down. The British Defense Ministry says London continues to stand, quote, "shoulder to shoulder" with Ukraine, and will provide Kyiv with the equipment it needs to defend itself against Russia's invasion, while warning Moscow not to doubt Britain's resolve. And there is, of course, some obvious irony in Russia's choice of language here. Moscow is accusing Britain of facilitating, quote, "terrorism" against civilians, but the same time that Russia continues launching massive long-range attacks across Ukraine. In fact, just hours before Thursday's warning, Russia launched another major overnight barrage involving ballistic and hypersonic missiles and 258 drones, striking ports, grain storage facilities, energy infrastructure, industrial sites, and commercial distribution centers across the country. Moscow issued Thursday's threat one day after accusing Ukraine of using British storm-shadow missiles to strike a shopping center in Russian-controlled denetz, reportedly wounding civilians. The Ukraine is not commanded on that allegation, and Reuters has been unable to independently verify Russia's account. There's also no question that Ukraine's deep strike campaign is becoming increasingly consequential. Kyiv has dramatically expanded attacks inside Russia this year, targeting military facilities, oil refineries, and other infrastructure that it says supports Moscow's war effort, increasingly, bringing Putin's war home to the Russian population. But this latest warning raises a much larger question than where Ukraine is allowed to fire a British-made missile. Russia is now explicitly threatening military assets belonging to a NATO country outside the Ukrainian battlefield in response to how Ukraine uses western weapons. And that fits into a broader pattern that we've been tracking closely here on the PDB. Over the past several months, NATO countries, along Russia's borders, have faced repeated drone incursions, suspected grey zone operations, and increasingly direct tests of how the alliance will respond when the war crosses or at least brushes against its territory. Taken together the escalating incidents and provocative rhetoric all point toward the same uncomfortable reality. As Ukraine's ability to strike deeper into Russia grows, and western governments become more directly involved in supplying the technology that makes those attacks possible, the war in Ukraine is creeping closer to a possible direct confrontation between Russia and NATO. Alright, I want to shift to Washington, because for the first time, the U.S. is using some of its toughest counterterrorism sanctions against a radical left anti-Israel group based in the U.K. The drop administration has designated Palestine action under America's global terrorism sanctions, putting it under the same framework used against Hamas, Al-Qaeda, and ISIS. And this is much more than just a label. Palestine action is now being hit with the same kind of financial restrictions that the U.S. uses to isolate terrorist organizations from the international financial system. Its bank accounts and property in the U.S. can now be frozen while Americans are barred from giving the group money or doing business with it. Anyone who violates those sanctions could potentially face civil or criminal penalties. But the consequences don't necessarily stop with the organization. Palestine actions British co-founders, Richard Barnard and Huda Amori, now face lifetime bans from entering the U.S. The telegraph reports that Britain's who continued to fund the organization or participate in its activities could face sanctions or visa restrictions, potentially making it difficult for them to do a variety of things such as open a bank account or get a mortgage. This appears to be the first known case of a British radical left activist group being subjected to American counterterrorism sanctions. To better understand how Palestine action got here, I wanted to discuss what the group has actually been doing. The Eta Israel group was founded in Britain in 2020, largely around targeting companies and facilities that it accused of supporting the Jewish state. In less than a year after Hamas's 7 October 2023 terror attacks, Palestine actions campaign turned violent. In August of 2024, more than a dozen radicals used a prison van to ram their way into an Elbet Systems facility near Bristol, England. Once inside one of them, a fellow named Samuel Corners dropped police sergeant Katie Evans with a sledgehammer, fracturing her spine. Four activists were eventually convicted over the raid while Corners was found guilty of causing grievous bodily harm. A few months later, Palestine action activists stole a bust of Israel's first president from Manchester University and splattered several buildings including a Jewish charity office with red paint that in June 2025, activists broke into RAF Prismnorton and damaged British military aircraft. That became the breaking point for the British government, which formally prescribed Palestine action as a terrorist organization. Five senior judges upheld that decision last month, concluding that the group was, quote, "no ordinary protest" group. Washington now says Palestine action has supported, quote, "numerous acts of terrorism" since 2020, including attacks that injured British police officers and actions intended to intimidate businesses and, quote, "coerc," the British government. But Washington isn't only concerned about what happened in the UK. It's concerned about those tactics spreading. African officials accused Palestine action of promoting its attacks online and encouraging others to copy them, including in the US and along the US Mexico border. The group does have ties to the US. Its American branch rebranded it as unity of fields in 2024 and evolved into what has been described as a, quote, "militant propaganda front," targeting the American government and its allies. The group celebrated the attacks on police during violent protests in Los Angeles and encouraged it, quote, "intifada," then Arabic term commonly used to describe an uprising in response to the detention of illegal immigrants. And this is part of a much broader Trump administration crackdown on far-left political violence. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says, quote, "far-left terrorism poses a profound threat to the US and the broader West, warning that there will be, quote, "no refuge for violent extremists." Earlier this summer, Rubio brought representatives from 66 countries to Washington to coordinate a crackdown, including sharing intelligence, restricting travel, and disrupting the financing of far-left terrorist networks. So the Trump administration is effectively drawing a new line. If radical left organizations move beyond protest and into political violence, Washington is signaling that it is prepared to treat them as a terrorist organization. Coming up in the back of the brief, rescuers continue the search for more than 1,400 missing people after a towering wall of water and mud devastates communities along the Nepal-China border. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here. The president's daily brief is brought to you by mod. Now mod prescribes a once or twice daily, a Modephanil drink that can keep you energized, focused, and alert. Look, here's the deal. Caffeine energy drinks block something called adenosine, right? The chemical that makes you tired. Now, it builds up and when caffeine wears off, it crashes. Modephanil, well, that works differently. It engages pathways in your brain, dopamine, no repinion, histamine, and anorexin. They'll say all that fast. to achieve energy and alertness for 10 to 12 hours. Modaphanil was invented in the 1970s, and since then, it's been used by soldiers, pilots, astronauts, anybody in a high-stake situation for concentration and alertness. 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Just search Cappy Army on Apple Podcast or Spotify to get weekly open-source intelligence reports, and remember to follow today. - In today's back of the brief, I want to focus on a remote stretch of the Himalayas, where people living in the valleys below had no warning on Wednesday that disaster was unfolding in the mountains above them. You have likely seen the headlines, and if you've been scrolling through social media over the past 48 hours, you've likely seen the videos of people running for their lives as a wall of water and mud, several stories high, swallowed buildings and bridges in its path. What caused all of this was an enormous glacier collapse in landslide, the number of dead missing, has been rising ever since. More than 390 people have been killed, and with roughly 1,400 people still missing, the death toll is expected to climb, as rescuers finally reach communities cut off by destroyed roads and collapsed bridges, high water and thick mud. When it comes to large-scale glacier collapses, they are extremely rare, and this one was powerful enough that scientists initially mistook it for an earthquake. The US Geological Survey first reported what appeared to be a magnitude 4.4 earthquake near the Nepal-China border. But after scientists took another look at the data, they realized there hadn't been an earthquake at all. Instead, a massive section of glacier had broken off at roughly 17,000 feet and plunged nearly 4,000 feet into the valley below. The force of all that ice and rocks slamming into the valley floor was so powerful that the impact itself created a seismic signal equivalent to a magnitude 5.2 event. From there, everything was moving incredibly quickly. As the ice came crashing down, it gathered rock and sediment before slamming into the river below, temporarily damning the water behind a massive pile of debris. When that blockage gave way, water, mud, rock and ice suddenly surged downstream. The Geological Survey reports at water levels at the Trishuli River, which runs south from the Nepal-China border, surged by as much as 27 feet in just half an hour. The geography only made matters worse. Of course, the Himalayas contain some of the highest and steepest peaks on Earth, towering above narrow valleys, and a region where earthquakes are all too common. That combination makes communities below particularly vulnerable to floods and landslides when parts of the mountainside suddenly give way. The consequences stretch across both sides of the border. At least 910 people are still missing in Nepal alone, while authorities in Tibet say around 550 more remain unaccounted for. And I want to put into scale just how far the flood carried its victims, rescuers every covered bodies in Nepal's Chitwan district hundreds of miles downstream from some of the hardest-hit areas. River banks and village streets of buried vehicles have been swallowed by debris and mud and wreckage can be seen hanging from trees and utility wires. For the people who survived, many are now simply waiting for word about relatives who haven't been found. In Tibet, the flooding left surrounding areas buried under more than five feet of mud on average. And getting into these areas has become a major challenge. Nepalese officials say dozens of bridges were destroyed and nearly 25 miles of roads were damaged, forcing rescue teams to rely heavily on military helicopters. The Nepalese Army says it has already rescued more than 100 people by helicopter. China's premier traveled to Tibet on Thursday to oversee the response with roughly 500 military and paramilitary personnel deployed alongside rescue helicopters. But hundreds of those still missing aren't residents at all. Nepal's tourism board says that more than 504 nationals remain unaccounted for, including nearly 180 Indians, more than 60 Americans and citizens from roughly 30 other countries. Many may have been traveling to a sacred pilgrimage site for Hindus, Buddhists, and others in Tibet. One pilgrimage group alone had 77 people caught in the flooding at an immigration office near the border, including 22 Americans. There's still no official information about where they are, as of now, the US State Department says it's not currently aware of any American deaths. But finding those missing isn't the only concern. Continued rain is raising the risk of additional landslides or secondary collapses across terrain that it's already been seriously destabilized. As rescue crews push further into the remote valleys, we're likely to get a much clearer and potentially much worse picture of just how catastrophic this event was. And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Friday, the 28th of August. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at [email protected]. And yes, you did hear correctly, it is Friday. And that means we're launching another episode of our extended weekend show, the PDB Situation Report, this evening at 10 p.m. on the first TV. Great guests, as always. We've got retired Admiral Mark Montgomery joining us to examine where exactly we are with the Iran conflict. Where are we, including the ongoing trouble around the Strait of Hormuz. And Gordon Chang returns to talk about China, including how Chinese technology is allowing Russia to create faster, deadlier drones to unleash on your crane. You can also catch it and past episodes on our YouTube channel. Just make your way on over to YouTube and search up at President's Daily Brief. And as always, you can find us wherever you get your podcast stuff. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.