It's Wednesday, the 26th of August. Welcome to the president's daily brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Alright, let's get briefed. First up, a month's long American operation has reportedly cleared the principal shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz, undercutting Iran's effort to use the mines they laid as leverage. Traffic to the Strait still remains well below pre-conflict levels. Later in the show, Russia risks losing one of its oldest allies as Armenia moves to a bad-than-mask house answered in NATO and seek membership in the European Union. Plus, the trade war with Canada escalates as Ottawa retaliates with tariffs on $20 billion in American goods, following the collapse of talks with Washington. And here I was, worried that we didn't have enough conflict in the world today. And in today's back of the brief, CIA Director John Rackliffe makes a secret trip to Moscow for undisclosed talks with Russian officials, although to be fair, it's not so secret anymore, nor undisclosed. But first, today's PDB spotlight. The US may have just stripped Iran of one of its most important bargaining chips in the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump announced Tuesday that the US Navy has cleared the mines from the international shipping lanes running through the strait. Two American officials, with direct knowledge of the operation, confirmed Axios, that the Navy has cleared what is known as the Traffic Separation Scheme. Let's see, internationally recognized shipping cord or that runs between Iran and Oman. The separate US official told the Jerusalem Post that Senkham had cleared both the inbound and outbound lanes. Now the Traffic Separation Scheme is essentially a divided highway for commercial ships. One lane carries vessels into the Persian Gulf while the other carries them out. It's designed to keep some of the world's largest tankers moving safely through one of the narrowest to add the most heavily traveled waterways on Earth. Iran mined that central corridor during the war, forcing American protected tankers to use a narrower southern route close to Oman. The mine clearing operation apparently took place quietly over several months. Senkham publicly announced back in April that it had begun setting the conditions for clearing the strait. American underwater drones then systematically scanned the central corridor and identified more than 100 objects suspected of being mines. According to Axios, the military brought in private contractors to remove or detonate them. And as you might imagine, that was no small undertaking. Early in the operation, Pentagon officials reportedly warned lawmakers that clearing the mines could take as long as six months. It also had to be done while Iran continued threatening commercial ships and while American forces maintained their blockade of Iranian ports. Now that the central lanes have been cleared, ships should be able to travel simultaneously in both directions under American air protection. That could substantially increase the amount of oil moving through the strait. Now that's the hope for a result of the mine clearing effort obviously. But obviously the shipping and insurance industries have to agree that the conditions have improved. And that's important because traffic remains severely depressed in the strait. According to Reuters, roughly five million barrels of oil passed through Hormuz on Monday. Now before the war, that number routinely exceeded 20 million barrels per day, roughly one out of every five barrels consumed worldwide. But the larger significance here is what this does to Iran's leverage. The regime had been treating the mines as a negotiating tool. Iranian officials previously rejected Oman's proposal to divide shipping traffic equally between the two countries. Instead, Tehran demanded that all inbound traffic and at least some outbound traffic be routed through Iranian waters. Iran also declared that it no longer recognized the established central shipping corridor, which it claimed, gave Oman too much control and did not adequately address Iranian security concerns following the American and Israeli attacks earlier this year. The regime warned that the strait would remain closed unless its conditions were accepted. It also said that it would not permit any outside country to clear the mines, even if that country had been invited by Oman. Well, the US appears to have gone ahead and done it anyway. What do you think about that? On Tuesday, the foreign ministers of Iran and Oman met in Tehran to discuss a temporary joint shipping corridor, a cooperative mine clearing project, and a possible permanent arrangement for demonstrating navigation through the hormones seems like that's overtaken by events. The proposed framework would also include intelligence sharing, traffic management, and joint security services. But Iran and Oman did not reach an agreement. And depending on how quickly commercial shipping returns, they may now be negotiating over a problem that the US has largely resolved without them. Now, that, of course, does not mean that the state of Hormuz is suddenly completely safe. Iran still possesses drones and anti-ship missiles and fast attack boats. Commercial vessels have continued to come under attack, even as the mine clearing operation progressed. Some maritime warnings also remain in place outside the principal shipping lanes. So the removal of the mines addresses one threat. It does not eliminate Iran's broader ability to disrupt shipping. President Trump says that Iran has been notified that any vessel caught placing new mines will be immediately destroyed. The president also says the US Space Force is monitoring the waterway and that Washington is imposing what he called a "zero tolerance policy" on any new mine laying operation. All right, coming up next. Armenia moves to abandoned Russia's answer to NATO and pursue EU membership. I'm sure that's going to sit very well with Vladimir. While Canada retaliates against Washington with tariffs on $20 billion in American goods. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. With a pro tip for feeling your best. Let me ask you a question. Have you ever finished breakfast or lunch or dinner? But then find yourself reaching for a snack an hour later? Yes, that's right. Cravings. Cravings can take over even when you're trying to eat healthy. That's exactly what Pendulum Metabolic Daily was designed. 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It's also weakened the Kremlin's influence over countries that wants to depend on Russia for protection. And now, one of Moscow's oldest allies is preparing to move closer to the West. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian announced Monday that his government intends to apply for membership in the European Union in the near future. Once Brussels responds in the two sides, establish a possible path toward membership, Pashinian says the final decision will be placed before Armenian voters in a national referendum. At the same time, Pashinian made clear that Armenia has no intention of resuming its participation in the collective security treaty organization. And you ask if that organization has an acronym? Well, of course, it does. It's the CSTO. That's a sick member of military alliance, dominated by Russia, designed to serve as Moscow's answer to NATO. It's current members are Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Armenia. On paper, those countries are supposed to come to one another's defense, but Armenia no longer appears to believe that promise is worth very much. Armenia throws its participation in the alliance back in 2024. Speaking before Parliament on Monday, Pashinian said his country will not reactivate its involvement. He went even further, saying he would be pleased if the CSTO simply expelled Armenia because that would free his government from having to decide when to leave. Now to understand how significant this is, Armenia has looked to Russia as its primary security guarantor for nearly two centuries. Those ties continued after the collapse of the Soviet Union when Armenia joined the Russian-led security block as fighting intensified with neighboring Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. For years, Armenia believed its military relationship with Moscow would protect it against Azerbaijan, and Azerbaijan's principal ally, which of course would be Turkey. Then that arrangement was tested. After several conflicts, Azerbaijan seized full control of Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia also accused Azerbaijan of attacking its territory. Russia deployed peacekeepers, but never provided the military intervention that Yerevan expected. The CSTO also failed to deliver meaningful assistance. Putin's war with Ukraine only accelerated Armenia's frustration with the CSTO. Russia committed much of its military strength to Ukraine, became increasingly dependent on Turkey, and demonstrated that it could not, or would not, put
detect a smaller ally in the South Caucasus. Pashinian acknowledged that reality on Monday. He said Armenia and Russian relations had long been based on the understanding that Moscow guaranteed Armenia's security, but he added that Russia's own security challenges have placed significant limits on its ability to perform that role. In other words, Russia has become too distracted, too weakened, to provide the protection that once kept Armenia firmly within Moscow's orbit. And as Russia's influences declined, Washington and Europe have moved into the opening. President Trump hosted Pashinian, and Azerbaijanis president Ilham Aliyev, at the White House in August of 2025, where the two leaders initialed a peace agreement. That meeting also established plans for the Trump route for international peace and prosperity, a proposed 27-mile transportation corridor connecting Azerbaijan to its Nakjavan and Klave through southern Armenia. The United States and Armenia have since expanded their strategic partnership, while American and European investment is helping Yerevan develop alternatives to its dependence on Russia. Pashinian is now asking Moscow to surrender its monopoly concession over Armenia's railways before that agreement expires in 2038. The Armenian government wants to connect its rail system with broader international networks and is considering investors from Kazakhstan or the United Arab Emirates. The Kremlin is publicly downplaying the possibility of Armenia leaving the CSTO. spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Yerevan is "free to leave" if membership no longer serves its national interests. But Moscow is also warning Ayer at Gums that a departure could produce serious trade consequences for Armenia. Russia still controls considerable economic leverage through Armenian energy, infrastructure, and commerce. And that helps explain why Pashinian is moving cautiously. Armenia has not formally left the CSTO. It remains inside Russia's Eurasian economic union and still relies heavily on Russian energy and trade. EU membership would also take years and is far from guaranteed. So this is not yet a complete break with Moscow. Armenia is attempting to build new partnerships while avoiding direct confrontation with Russia. But the direction is clear. Putin invaded Ukraine in part to prevent another former Soviet republic from escaping Moscow's orbit. More than four years later, that war has weakened Russia's military, distracted the Kremlin, and convinced another longtime ally that Russian protection may no longer be reliable. Armenia is not completely gone from the Kremlin's orbit, but it's walking toward the exit. Okay, I want to shift now to Canada, where the latest round of a trade battle with the US is getting more expensive. Today's after President Trump's new 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods took effect, Canada announced Tuesday that it's slapping retaliatory tariffs on roughly $20 billion worth of American goods, matching Washington's latest tariffs dollar for dollar. And we're not talking about one or two industries here. Starting the 8th of September, Canada will impose tariffs ranging from 15% all the way up to 50% on roughly 700 American products. The steepest 50% tariffs will hit steel, aluminum, furniture, and clothing. Canada is imposing 25% duties on products including cheese, appliances, and some seafood, while electronics and tools will face 15% duties. The list also includes lumber, machinery, and motorcycles. But I want to put the scale of this into some context, because we're still talking about a relatively small portion of the enormous amount of trade moving across the US, Canada border. Two 50% tariffs apply to roughly 5% of Canada's exports to the US, or about $20 billion worth of goods. Canada's retaliation, calculated using 2024 figures, covers nearly 5% of what Canada imports from the states. Now it helps to revisit how two of the world's closest trading partners got to this point. For a while, it looked like these tariffs might never happen. Washington and Ottawa had spent weeks negotiating, and its latest last week, both sides signaled they were closing in on a deal. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said negotiators had made "significant progress" while Canada's minister responsible for U.S. trade said that the two countries were "very close to an agreement." The Trump administration had even extended an earlier tariff deadline to give those negotiations more time. And then Friday night, it all fell apart. U.S. trade representative James and Greer said the Trump administration had been willing to give Canada the "best treatment" of any major American trading partner. But Carney tells the story differently. He accused Washington of making last-minute changes that he called "unfair" on economic and said they called "into question the reliability of any deal." Without an agreement, Trump's 50% tariffs took effect at 12-1 Saturday morning, and there's some important context behind the president's decision to impose them. The Trump administration first threatened this latest round last month in response to several long-standing complaints about Canadian trade policy, including "provincial restrictions on U.S. alcohol, protections for Canada's dairy industry, and restrictions affecting some U.S. vehicles." Canadian officials had discussed making concessions, including pushing provincial governments to reverse bans on American alcohol and giving U.S. producers greater access to Canada's heavily protected dairy market. But ultimately, the two sides just couldn't get there. And here's where Canada's retaliation becomes interestingly political. Ottawa's industry minister said protecting Canadian businesses comes first, but she also acknowledged that Canada deliberately targeted products from certain U.S. states in hopes of applying political pressure ahead of the November mid-Dermal elections. So Ottawa isn't simply trying to shield Canadian companies from Trump's tariffs. It's deliberately choosing American products, at least in part, based on where it believes those tariffs can inflict the most political pain on the Trump administration, before Americans vote in November. Canada is also preparing for some economic pain of its own, of course. Carney's liberal government announced nearly $6 billion in support for Canadian businesses and workers affected by the trade fight, including help for small and medium-sized companies, cash flow assistance, and support for workers whose jobs could be at risk. Canada's federally backed business development bank will provide affected companies with interest free loans, up to $3.5 million, with repayments delayed for 36 months, pushing them through the remainder of Trump's term. Trump has steadily increased the economic pressure on Canada, arguing that he's pushing back against a trading partner that has spent years protecting parts of his own economy, while benefiting from access to the much larger American market. And hey, over this latest fight, is the future of the U.S. Mexico-Canada Agreement, which Trump negotiated during his first term to replace NAFTA. The pact is under review, after his administration declined to renew it in its current form anyway earlier this summer, and the president has repeatedly raised the possibility of withdrawing all together. OK, coming up in the back of the brief, CIA Director John Radcliffe makes an unannounced trip to Moscow, as Washington reportedly asks Ukraine to suspend strikes on the Russian capital. Or on that, when we come back. Hey Mike Baker here. Now, as someone who spends time thinking about uncertainty and preparing for what might happen next, I think there's another kind of preparation that is, unfortunately, easy to overlook, and that is making sure your family has financial security. If something happens to you, it's not the happiest of thoughts, but if something happens to you, you need to be prepared for the unexpected. And that's where life insurance comes in. 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In today's back of the brief, the CIA director John Wright Cliff, made an unannounced trip to Moscow on Tuesday, for meetings that neither Washington nor Moscow has yet explained. The first clue came when a US Air Force C-17 Glowmaster landed at Moscow's Vnukovol International Airport, followed by the arrival of an American diplomatic motorcade. Only then did we begin to learn who was apparently there. Flight tracking data shows the aircraft appears to have originally taken off from joint-based Andrews in Maryland, before spending roughly 24 hours in Latvia. Latvia's Defense Ministry would only say that the flight was, quote, "properly coordinated and authorized for operation within the airspace." Oh, that's nice. But CBS News was the first to report that Ratcliffe was in Moscow, with CNN later confirming. Through an unnamed US official, that the CIA director traveled there to meet with Russian officials, to non-named US official because he was supposed to keep his pie-hole shut. But beyond that, Washington isn't saying much, the official decline to reveal the substance of the meetings, or even what topics would be discussed. Neither the US nor Russian governments publicly explained the purpose of the visit. But here's where the trip gets even more interesting. Before Ratcliffe ever arrived in Moscow, the US took steps to make sure the Russian capital would be safe for entry. A person familiar with the matter told CNN that Washington asked Ukraine to stop drone and missile strikes against Moscow and neighboring cities, from Monday through Wednesday. So before the American public knew that Ratcliffe was headed to Moscow, Washington was apparently already trying to reduce the risk of the CIA director landing in the Russian capital. While of course Ukrainian drones have been raining down in that region. It appears to be Ratcliffe's first known visit to Russia since becoming CIA director under President Trump, although he's maintained contact with his Russian intelligence counterparts. What we don't know is what was important enough to bring him there in person. Ukraine, I guess, would be the most obvious possibility. US mediated peace talks remain mostly stalled, with the two sides still far apart on some of the most important issues. At the same time, recent American intelligence assessments reportedly suggest that Vladimir Putin's risk appetite may be changing. US intelligence believes the Russian leader may be becoming increasingly willing to authorize provocative actions against NATO members, including hybrid operations and other measures, designed to give Moscow some level of deniability. But Ukraine isn't the only possible reason for Ratcliffe's trip. He landed just one day after Treasury Secretary Scott Besson unveiled what the Trump administration is calling Operation Economic Outcast, a campaign aimed at further isolating Iran by punishing countries and companies that do business with the regime. Of course, Russia is a strategic trading partner with the Iranian regime. There's another issue between Washington and Moscow that could be relevant here, and that would be prisoners. According to a bipartisan group of US senators, at least five Americans remain imprisoned in Russia, several of whom have now been held for years. Ratcliffe is no stranger to negotiating directly with Moscow on this issue. He personally negotiated the April 2020-25 release of US Russian dual-national Senya Karolina, the view of CIA was also involved in the 2024 prisoner exchange that brought Wall Street journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and Marine Veteran Paul Wheelan home. So there's a president for the CIA playing a direct role when Washington and Moscow are trying to get Americans out of Russian custody. We'll keep an eye on this development. And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Wednesday, the 26th of August. Now if you have any questions or comments and I hope you do, just reach out to me at
[email protected]. And finally, I hope you'll check out our YouTube channel. Just wander on over to YouTube and search up at president's daily brief. If you like what you see, well, hopefully you'll hit that subscribe button. The entire pdb staff is very grateful for your loyalty, even our above average interns. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the pdb afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. [MUSIC]
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