August 25th, 2026: Iran’s Economic Lifelines Are Being Cut Off & North Korea’s Next Deployment

I break down the new wars and weapons systems that are totally reshaping our world in my show Kappy Army, but we go beyond simply just telling you what happened in a war, we actually investigate deeper into the why and how. At Kappy Army, everything is informed by my experience as an average US Army infantryman in Iraq, and a war correspondent covering the front lines of the war in Ukraine. Just search Kappy Army on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to get weekly open source intelligence reports and remember to follow today. It's Tuesday, the 25th of August. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker from your eyes and ears on the world stage. Alright, let's get briefed. Next up, Washington tells the world to choose between America and Iran as the Iranian regime threatens dozens of tankers in the state of Hormuz. Confused? Well we'll have the details. Later in the show, Ukraine sets its sights on a new target, striking warehouses belonging to Russia's second-largest online retailer. Plus North Korea prepares to send more troops to Russia after already supplying Moscow with more than 15 million artillery rounds. Well after all, what are friends for? And in today's back of the brief, Washington brings Israel and Syria to the negotiating table in an attempt to prevent further conflict. But first, today's PDB spotlight. The Trump administration has launched a campaign designed to force every country to make a choice, continue doing business with Iran, or preserve access to the American economy. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant announced the campaign Monday under the name Operation Economic Outcast, they must have an office somewhere in Washington, D.C. that is tasked with coming up with these names, Operation Economic Outcast. He said the objective is to sever every remaining economic lifeline available to the regime, and impose what he called a quote "zero leakage" approach to Iranian revenue. The opening round targets more than 60 individuals, companies and vessels accused of helping Iran obtain nuclear and missile technology. Central sanctions will target digital assets, gold, aviation, shipping and technology, with further moves expected in the coming weeks. Besant also singled out Bank Melley, that Iran's largest state-owned bank. He said its foreign branches must close or risk being cut out of the U.S. dollar system. And that's the real power behind the campaign. Washington is not simply telling American companies to stop doing business with Iran. Democrats warning foreign governments, foreign banks and corporations that they could lose access to the American financial system if they continue providing Tecron with revenue. In simple terms, they can do business with Iran, or they can do business with the U.S. The administration is telling them they cannot do both. But despite the economic deed a branding, Monday's announcement was still largely a warning shot. Besant did not identify which major countries or financial institutions will be targeted. He acknowledged that Washington is giving governments time to change the behavior before the hammer falls. Now, the decisive factor, as we've discussed previously on the PDB, will be China. Beijing purchases most of Iran's exported oil, often through small independent refineries, with limited exposure to the U.S. That trade has helped Teferan survive previous rounds of American sanctions. Asked whether Washington would target Chinese banks involved in those transactions, Besant would only say that no one is beyond the reach of U.S. sanctions. He added that the administration prefers to handle those conversations through quiet diplomacy. The pressure may already be producing results elsewhere. The U.I.E. suspended all trade and financial transactions with Iran last week, shortly after President Trump spoke with the Emirati leader Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed. Neither government is confirmed that Trump demanded the suspension, but Besant said the timing was, quote, "not a coincidence." Now that is a major loss for the Iranian regime. Trade between Iran and the Emirates was worth roughly $28 billion in 2024, and the UAE had been Iran's largest source of imported goods. Meanwhile, conditions inside Iran continue to deteriorate. The reall fell Monday to a record low of $2.02 million reall to $1 U.S. Since the war began, price prices have increased to outfully 60%, while beef prices have risen more than 150%. The international monetary fund expects Iran's economy to shrink by more than 5%. The regime's response now has been to threaten the economic interests of everyone else. A newly created Iranian body called the Persian Gulf Straight Authority has blacklisted 45 tankers, for allegedly violating Iran's rules in the Strait of Hormuz. The list includes massive crude oil carriers, liquefied natural gas tankers, and vessels connected to major companies in Saudi Arabia and the Emirates. Iran says the ships could be fined, detained, or have their cargo confiscated, and a vessel conducting a ship-to-ship transfer with one of those tankers could also be blacklisted according to the regime. Iran has not clearly explained which rules those vessels broke, Iranian officials have previously demanded that ships receive Tehran's permission to cross the Strait and pay Iran for security and other services. So this is Iran's attempt to create leverage of its own. If the regime can't escape America's blockade and sanctions, it can threaten the shipping, carrying the Gulf Energy's exports to the world. But that strategy may be difficult to sustain. The U.S. says tanker traffic through Hormuz is gradually recovering. Energy Secretary Chris Wright says the seven-day average of oil leaving the Strait has climbed above 8 million barrels per day, with the U.S. Navy helping vessels make the passage. And every threat against Saudi, Emirati, or international shipping risk pushing those governments closer to Washington. Even as both sides escalate however, the diplomatic channel, oh here we go, supposedly remains open. Perhaps. Maybe. President Trump reportedly called Pakistan's army chief Field Marshal Aseem Munir last week before Munir traveled to Tehran. According to Pakistani sources, Trump asked him to use Pakistan's influence to bring Iran back to negotiations. Munir arrived Monday with Pakistan's interior minister and met Iranian parliamentary speaker and lead negotiator Muhammad Bakar Ghalibov. He was also expected to meet Iran's presidents and other senior officials. Now a question hanging over any discussions with Iran of course is who exactly is in charge. It does seem increasingly apparent that Ghalibov is not the one making decisions, and anything he discusses with mediators, is then taken back to Tehran and reviewed by what could be a small cadre of hardliners. Pakistan helped broker the interim agreement that was signed in June and it's again trying to bridge what one Pakistani source described as a deep trust deficit between Washington and Tehran. It's almost like the two sides don't like each other. So the administration's strategy appears to be operating on two tracks. Publicly Washington is threatening to isolate Iran from nearly every significant source of trade and banking and foreign revenue. Privately Trump is using Pakistan to determine whether the regime is prepared to negotiate before the next round of sanctions could take effect. The question is whether Operation Economic Outcast can force Iran's remaining partners, especially China, to comply. Now here's a spoiler alert, it's unlikely that China will comply with the White House's demands. It would not appear that any Venn diagram shows Washington embassies interests and concerns aligned, which then puts the US in a position of deciding to what degree it's willing to do battle with China. Alright, coming up next, Ukraine strikes Russia's second largest online retailer as North Korea prepares to send Putin more troops after reportedly supplying 15 million artillery rounds. I'll be right back. At Kappy Army, everything is informed by my experience as an average US Army infantryman in Iraq and a war correspondent covering the front lines of the war in Ukraine. Hey, Mike Baker here with a pro tip for everybody out there who loves delicious food. Come on. There's a lot of you out there. Have you heard of Goldbelly? 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That's GoBelly.com, code PDB for 20% off your first order. Welcome back to the PDB. After spending weeks pounding Russia's largest online retailer, Wild Burries, Ukraine has now turned its sights on the competition, an online retailer called Ozon. Now Ozon began as an online bookstore not unlike Amazon, but today it's Russia's second largest e-commerce company. Together Ozon and Wild Burries are projected to control 77% of the country's online retail market by the end of this year. And that makes their warehouses an increasingly important part of Russia's economic infrastructure and an increasingly attractive target for Ukrainian drones. Ozon says six of its facilities have been targeted in just three days, and Monday attacks were reported against four logistics hubs across southern Russia. One facility in the Southern Republic of Dagestan caught fire and was forced to suspend operations. Ozon said several people were injured. Another fire broke out at a warehouse outside Krasnodar, while workers were evacuated from two other facilities. The attacks followed strikes over the weekend against Ozon centers in the Samara and Orenberg regions. More than 300 workers were evacuated from the Orenberg facility, and operations were temporarily suspended. Russian officials also said at least three teenagers were killed during the wider wave of Ukrainian drone attacks in the Krasnodar region. The financial reaction was immediate. Ozon shares plunged almost 30% on the Moscow Exchange Monday. Shares in its largest investor that's the private equity firm AFK's Stemma fell more than 13%. That wiped away a significant part of what had been an extraordinary run for the company. Ozon stock had climbed nearly 300% since a market turmoil that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. And Ozon may be more financially vulnerable than Wildberries. Wildberries is partnered with the state-owned bank VTB, giving it access, of course, to government back support. Ozon's largest shareholder, meanwhile, is already carrying substantial debt and may have less capacity to finance a major rebuilding campaign. As we've previously reported here on the PDB, Ukraine is targeting these logistics networks as part of its broader campaign against Russia's economy. Keep says some of the warehouses help supply Russian forces with drone components and other equipment. The strikes are also intended to disrupt commerce and bring the consequences of the war closer to ordinary Russians. The Kremlin's response suggests that the pressure is being felt. Putin has promised government assistance to rebuild damaged warehouses, while Russia's finance ministry has prepared tax breaks for affected companies and small businesses. The Russian Central Bank has also urged lenders to support companies damaged by the attacks. Putin has now gone a step further, signing a decree that allows the Russian government to assume temporary control of important infrastructure, deemed inadequately protected, or deemed too slow to recover after an attack. Well, how very communist of them. And Ukraine may soon gain an even greater ability to strike deeper inside Russia. British Prime Minister Andy Burnham arrived in Kiev Monday and is expected to provide Ukraine with classified information about British-made components used in scalp-long-range cruise missiles. The UK is also helping Kiev expand its domestic production of long-range weapons. Now, the Kremlin called the move another attempt by Britain to quote "add fuel to the fire" and the Kremlin apparently said that with absolutely no sense of irony or self-awareness. spokesman Dmitry Petskov warned that Russia's military is already gathering intelligence on potential missile production sites and it tends to destroy them. Alright, I want to turn now to North Korea, where Kim Jong-un's regime is content continuing to prepare for the possibility of sending more troops to help Putin maintain his war in Ukraine. Now just how many troops we're talking about, that's an open question. Earlier this month, Ukrainian President Zelensky claimed that Kim could eventually send as many as 50,000 additional soldiers. Now that's a claim that Kim's sister, Kim Yo-jong, denied last week. South Korea's Defense Ministry says North Korea is still preparing for another deployment. But Seoul isn't seeing, at least for now, is any indication that those troops are actually getting ready to move. North Korea began sending troops to support Moscow's military operations in late 2024. After the two countries signed what's essentially a NATO-style mutual defense pact, it was sort of a no-limits friendship, I think they even traded friendship bracelets. The stay was touching. Just last week we discussed reports that North Korean forces in Russia now include a dedicated drone unit capable of carrying out strikes inside Ukraine. Kim of course has been keeping Russia's war machine supplied with a variety of resources for quite some time. North Korea has been shipping weapons to Russia since at least 2023, according to South Korean, Ukrainian, and Western assessments, despite previous denials from Moscow and Kong Yang. South Korea says those shipments are still ongoing. Included in those shipments have been short-range ballistic missiles and an enormous amount of artillery ammunition. Seoul now estimates that Pyongyang has supplied Russia with more than 15 million rounds. And importantly, North Korea appears to be learning from what happens when their munitions are put to use on the battlefield. South Korean intelligence says North Korean missiles used in Ukraine may actually be becoming more accurate, as Kim's military collects real combat data while Russia provides technical advice and support with key components. So Putin gets the missiles in ammunition he needs to keep his war going. While North Korea gets an opportunity that it could never reproduce through yet another carefully controlled missile test back home, and that is the chance to see how its weapons perform in an actual war. And that's where this relationship starts becoming a much bigger problem for South Korea and the US. Seoul says development of some North Korean ballistic missiles and multiple rocket launchers believed to be intended for use in a potential conflict with South Korea are now in advance development. Some of those weapons can reach much farther. South Korea says the Hwasong-12 Intermediate Range ballistic missile is now being prepared for operational deployment with a range that puts the US territory of Guam within reach. Now North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missiles they can reach farther still. North Korea says they already appear to have the flight capability to reach the US mainland, although Pyongyang is yet to prove it can reliably deliver a warhead. That's because every North Korean ICBM test has been conducted on a steep loft of dejectory leaving Seoul unable to verify whether a warhead could survive reentry under the conditions of an actual long-range strike. So while another North Korean troop deployment may not be immediately imminent, the preparations are continuing and in the interim North Korea is on the receiving end of battlefield data and real combat experience that they can then bore back into the forces and weapons that their regime is building to threaten South Korea, Japan and the US. Alright, coming up in the back of the brief, Israel and Syria quietly enter US mediated talks following a new round of Israeli air strikes. More on that when we come back. Mike Baker here. Now many of you may know me as the host of the President's Daily Brief, in fact I hope you do know me as the host of the PDB, but I am also a business owner, have been for years. And I want to take just a moment to talk with all of you business owners out there. Now you probably already know that small businesses face an uphill battle with big banks, right? Where getting a loan means endless paperwork and delays. But I want to tell you about a company out there working to make life easier for small businesses. I'm talking about Cardiff. For bank rates, without the wait, go to cardiff.co/PDB for up to $500,000 in funding. Their application takes less than 5 minutes, has no impact on personal credit and approvals can happen in minutes with same-day funding. 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We actually investigate deeper into the why and how. At Cappy Army, everything is informed by my experience as an average US Army infantryman in Iraq and a war correspondent covering the frontlines of the war in Ukraine. Just search Cappy Army on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to get weekly open source intelligence reports and remember to follow today. In today's back of the brief, I want to discuss a new US effort to ease tensions between Syria and Israel. One of the two countries now back at the negotiating table after a period of stalled diplomacy. The two sides met for high level American mediated talks in Jordan on Sunday. The US has spent more than a year trying to broker a security agreement between Israel and Syria, and earlier this year, the two sides apparently came close. In fact, Sirius foreign minister says they had agreed on paper to "almost everything". Then the war with Iran began, then negotiations were suspended, and that diplomatic opening largely disappeared. Last week things deteriorated even further. Israel, struck Sirius, Abu Al-Duhar, air base, saying Turkey was preparing to establish a military presence there. Damascus cut off contact entirely, and suddenly, well the two sides weren't talking at all. Now, Washington has managed to get them back in the same room. To be fair, these are not peace talks, what the US is trying to do right now is much more immediate, and that's lower the temperature before another Israeli strike or regional crisis since everything backward again. And there are really two potential flashpoints that Washington is trying to contain. The first is between Israel and Syria. Sirius state news agency says the delegations discussed ways to halt Israeli strikes, arrests and targeted operations inside Syrian territory while getting those security negotiations moving again. The second involves Turkey. Terror and Jerusalem have both developed significant interests inside Syria since Assad's fall, and Sunday's talks included efforts to keep their growing rivalry from spilling on to Syrian territory. Now I mentioned that Sirius foreign minister says the two sides had already agreed to quote almost everything earlier this year, so let's look at what that actually means. The minister says the negotiations included proposed security zones in southern Syria and the buffer zone where only UN forces would be present, but agreeing to something on paper and trusting the other side to carry it out of course are two very different things, particularly it seems, in the Middle East. Damascus doubted Israel would implement the agreement, and Sirius foreign minister says that lack of trust hasn't gone away. Now that the talks are moving again, Syria is returning to the table with significant demands. Damascus says its immediate priority is getting Israeli forces to withdraw to the position they held before Assad was overthrown in December of 2024. Syria also wants the full restoration of the 1974 disengagement agreement, which established a UN monitored buffer zone separating Israeli and Syrian forces. Syria also says it will not accept an agreement restricting its ability to rebuild its military or choose its own allies and partners. Then there's one dispute that goes back much further than Assad's fall, and that would be the Golan Heights. Syria reiterated that it considers the Israeli held territory Syrian, while acknowledging that negotiations over its final status would be premature. For those of you who are unfamiliar with the history here, Israel captured the Golan Heights from Syria during the 1967 Six Day War and later annex the territory. The US recognizes Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, although most of the international community does not. And it's important here to explain Israel's side of this as well because the strikes inside Syria aren't happening in a vacuum. Israel has repeatedly targeted Syrian military sites ever since Assad's government collapsed, and Jerusalem says those operations are necessary to protect Israeli security. Syria insists it poses no threat to Israel and has demanded an end to Israeli strikes and incursions. And that my friends is the president's daily brief for Tuesday the 25th of August. Now if you have any questions or comments, just reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. And finally, if you have spent years wondering about what it would be like to have an ad-free PDB experience, or you want to catch one of our special PDB series, or you maybe want to listen to one of our Ask Me Anything episodes, well, just become a premium member of the president's daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com. It's really that simple. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.