I break down the new wars and weapons systems that are totally reshaping our world in my show Kappy Army, but we go beyond simply just telling you what happened in a war, we actually investigate deeper into the why and how. At Kappy Army, everything is informed by my experience as an average US Army infantryman in Iraq, and a war correspondent covering the front lines of the war in Ukraine. Just search Kappy Army on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to get weekly open source intelligence reports, and remember to follow today. It's Friday, the 21st of August. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker from your eyes and ears on the world stage. And look at us. We made it to the end of another work week. Congratulations everyone, you can take the weekend off. Alright, let's get briefed. First up, Iran's regime fears another popular uprising, and the return of a man known as the suppression shake reveals how Tecran intends to stop it. Later in the show, Russia pounds key with drones and cruise missiles, leaving at least 16 dead as Ukraine's air defense shortage grows increasingly deadly. Plus, Romanian F-16s destroy an explosive Russian seed drone after it reaches one of Europe's most important new gas projects. And in today's back of the brief, prediction market bets may be revealing American military operations before the first missiles even fired. Oh, good. But first, today's PDB spotlight. We've been tracking growing evidence that Iran's leaders consider another popular uprising, one of the greatest threats to their survival. Here this week, roiders reported that officials in Tecran fear President Trump's economic campaign could deepen the country's misery, reignite nationwide protests, and further erode the regime's legitimacy. Now does it have? I'm sorry, does it have legitimacy? That's another question. Now new reporting is adding to that picture and revealing what Iran's leaders intended to do about it. The regime's leadership, that is, whomever is in charge, has returned one of the regime's most notorious intelligence officials to take charge of the besiege militia. That's the sprawling paramilitary force used a monitor and suppress Iran's population. His name is Hussein Tayyip, and his critics have given him an appropriate nickname, the suppression shake. Tayyip is a hard-legged cleric who joined the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps during the early years of the Islamic Republic. He spent decades moving through Iran's intelligence establishment, building a reputation for fierce loyalty to the Hamani family, and ruthless treatment of anyone, considered a threat to the regime. He also developed a close relationship with Mustafa Hamani, long before Mustafa succeeded his father as supreme leader, although of course it's unknown if Mustafa is alive, maybe in Iran physically or not, or responsible this stage really for making any decisions. According to the telegraph, the two men worked together to investigate political opponents, they manufactured damaging dossiers and undermined Iran's so-called reformist movement. Tayyip eventually returned to the revolutionary guard, and in 2008 was placed in command of the besiege militia. Iran's leadership was increasingly worried about the possibility of a so-called color revolution, one of the popular uprisings that had already toppled governments elsewhere. Those fears, well, they appeared justified one year later. In 2009, Iran's disputed presidential election produced the Green Movement, bringing enormous crowds into the streets to challenge the government. Tayyip's besiege militia played a central role in the crackdown that followed. But he didn't simply deploy men with clubs to clear demonstrations. Tayyip reportedly transformed the militia from a force primarily associated with street violence into a much more sophisticated instrument of domestic surveillance and counterintelligence. His members gathered information, identified organizers, infiltrated opposition networks and helped security forces locate people after the crowds had been killed, detained, or gone home. Tayyip's performance earned him a promotion. He became the founding commander of the IRGC Intelligence Organization and remained in that position for nearly 13 years. But his record against Iran's foreign enemies was considerably less impressive. According to Ayyip's tenure, Israeli intelligence repeatedly penetrated some of Iran's most sensitive networks. Israel stole a massive collection of secret nuclear documents from a warehouse near Tehran. Iranian nuclear scientist Moussen Fakhrizadeh was assassinated in an operation reportedly involving a remotely operated weapon. Other Israeli operations exposed serious weaknesses throughout Iran's security establishment. Tehran was removed from his intelligence position in 2022, reportedly after those accumulated failures became impossible to ignore. So his return raises an obvious question. Why would Iran's leadership, whatever it consists of, bring back an intelligence chief who repeatedly failed to stop Israel? Well, the answer is because Tehran is not bringing him back to catch Israeli spies, it's bringing him back to catch Iranians. Tehran has been ordered to strengthen what the regime calls its "popular intelligence network," expand the besiege's use of new technologies, and improve coordination with other government institutions. Tehran has also reportedly been instructed to expand neighborhood and professional units under the slogan "every Iranian, a besiege," really. Now in regime speak, this appears to mean more informants and greater surveillance throughout Iran's society. The militia already maintains a presence inside neighborhoods, universities, workplaces and mosques. Under Tehran, those networks could be used to identify organizations, of course, monitor potential opposition and make arrests before demonstrations even reach the streets. And there's evidence that the organization itself expects more unrest. Iran International recently reported on leaked audio from a meeting involving militia's cyberspace personnel and government supporters. Democrats reportedly warned that the underlying tensions inside Iran had not disappeared in that confrontations between protesters and security forces could likely continue. They also expressed concern that besiege members could be identified and exposed online. One speaker reportedly warned that opposition groups could use AI to identify militia personnel from photographs and obtain information about them. Others expressed concern that applications on participants' phones might be listening to their discussions. Now Iran International is an anti-regime outlet, and that audio has not been independently verified. But if authentic, it does reveal an organization increasingly frightened of their own citizens. And the conditions for another uprising are clearly present. Iran's annual inflation rate reached 66% in July. More prices were nearly 88% higher than a year earlier, while food inflation reached 128%. The war has damaged factories, power plants, and transportation networks. The American blockade has disrupted imports, including gasoline, while President Trump is now threatening devastating consequences for any foreign bank, business, or government that helps keep Tehran's economy alive. Those pressures are compounding the anger left behind by January's nationwide protests and the brutal violent crackdowns had followed. The regime may have cleared the streets, killing and detaining thousands, but it did not solve the problems that sent people into the streets in the first place. Trump is betting that enough economic pressure will force Tehran to compromise. Iran's leaders appear to believe that they can survive that pressure if they prevent economic anger from becoming organized political opposition and protests. Washington is trying to push Iran toward its breaking point. No saying to him, is being brought back to ensure the population stays home and out of the streets. Iran's leaders may no longer be able to defend their skies or repair their economy or prevent American pressure from reaching ordinary families in Iran, but the suppression shake. He wasn't brought back to solve any of those problems. His job is to ensure the Iranian population doesn't threaten the regime's grip on power, by any means necessary. Alright, coming up next, Russia's latest assault leaves 16 dead in Kiev as Ukraine's air defenses run short. While Romania and F-16s destroy a Russian seedrone near a critical Black Sea gas project, I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. 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[email protected]/PDB and of course, thank you to SpringSleep for sponsoring this episode. ExciteOSA is an FDA-clared prescription-only device for primary snoring and mild obstructive sleep apnea. It's not for everyone. Individual results may vary. You can check out the risks and benefits at SpringSleep.com. I break down the new wars and weapons systems that are totally reshaping our world in my show Cappy Army, but we go beyond simply just telling you what happened at a war. We actually investigate deeper into the why and how. At Cappy Army, everything is informed by my experience as an average US Army infantryman in Iraq and a war correspondent covering the front lines of the war in Ukraine. Just search Cappy Army on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to get weekly open-source intelligence reports and remember to follow today. Welcome back to the PDB. For nearly nine hours overnight into Thursday, Russia sent its latest barrage of missiles and drones toward Kiev and the surrounding region. By the time the sirens finally fell silent and the smoke began to clear, at least 16 people were dead, more than 40 others were wounded, and buildings across the capital had been damaged, including homes and a school in the Children's Hospital. Now according to reporting, Ukraine actually managed to shoot down a lot of what Russia said its way. Moscow reportedly launched 168 drones alongside dozens of cruise missiles, as well as ballistic and hypersonic missiles. Ukraine says it destroyed nearly 90% of those drones and most of the cruise missiles. But I want to focus on the other weaponry, the ballistic missiles, because that's where this attack is telling. Ukraine hasn't told the world exactly how many Russia launched or whether any were intercepted. What we do know is that these missiles are obviously extremely difficult to shoot down, and Kiev really has only one reliable answer. That would be the American-made patriot interceptors. If you've been listening to us for any like the time you've heard this before, Zelensky has been pleading with Washington and Ukraine's other allies for more patriot interceptors for months. Now Russia appears to be leading directly into that vulnerability. Moscow has sharply increased its use of ballistic missiles in recent weeks, just as Ukraine struggles to replace the patriot interceptors it's already fired, increasingly sending those missiles toward a capital filled with millions of civilians. That's what makes Zelensky's latest appeal worth paying attention to, even though we've heard versions of it many times before. He says the patriot interceptors that Ukraine has already used still haven't been replaced, warning quote, they are needed every day. Each additional missile saves the lives of our people. End quote. And after what happened overnight, you can understand why he's putting it that way. Zelensky called the barrage one of the most quote cynical, calculated and large-scale Russian attacks of the war. Now Russia tells a very different story about what it was trying to hit. Well, of course they do. Its defense ministry claims the barrage targeted military facilities, including a depot, logistics hub, and sites involved in producing drone components. But you can look at what was actually damaged. 30 residential buildings were hit and Keeve and the surrounding region. Food warehouses and red cross facilities were damaged while roughly 90,000 households lost power. Keeve's mayor has declared today a day of mourning and unfortunately we've been seeing nights like this with increasing regularity. Just over two weeks ago another Russian attack on Keeve and the surrounding region killed 17 people. Two days before that, 9 people were killed in the capital. The UN says Keeve was one of Ukraine's hardest hit cities in July, with at least 54 civilians killed. But here at the BDB we also want to look outside of Keeve for a moment, because that's where this attack starts getting uncomfortably close to NATO territory. Russian forces also targeted a border crossing with Moldova in the Odessa region, where repeated attacks on ports and ships have already badly disrupted one of Ukraine's most important agricultural export corridors. Then you get to Ukraine's NATO neighbors, Poland activated fighter aircraft, ground-based air defenses, and radar systems as the Russian barrage approached its border. But Romania hadn't even more unsettling evening. Two Spanish F-18s deployed there under NATO's air policing mission were scrambled to monitor a group of aerial threats near the Ukrainian border, an unidentified drone then crashed and burned in an uninhabited area inside Romania. Now, none of that means that NATO and Russia are headed for a direct war, of course. But with Russia increasingly exploiting Ukraine's vulnerabilities, while its attack creeped closer to NATO territory, the risks are increasingly extending beyond Ukraine's borders. I want to stay with Romania now and turn to the Black Sea, where the country just deployed fighter jets to destroy an explosive maritime drone, moving near one of its most important energy projects, and incident the European officials are calling the latest example of Russia's escalating hybrid war against the continent. The incident unfolded Thursday near Neptune deep, a massive offshore natural gas project, roughly 80 miles east to the Romanian city of Constantin. According to Romania's Defense Minister, an explosive naval drone was spotted just a few hundred meters from the platform, where several hundred people were working at the time. Romania quickly deployed two F-16 fighter jets and after consulting with NATO, made the decision to destroy the drone to protect the workers and secure the infrastructure. Romanian officials consulted with their Ukrainian counterparts, who confirmed the drone wasn't theirs, and Romanian president Nikasor Don quickly pointed the finger directly at Moscow. Don condemned what he described as an intensification of irresponsible incidents by the Russian Federation, adding that Romania would remain vigilant alongside its NATO allies to "defend ourselves and repel such challenges." Now no surprise here, but the Kremlin has remained silent on the incident, and it's worth stressing that Romania had good reason to establish whose drone this was before assigning blame. Back in June, a Ukrainian naval drone drifted toward Romania and exploded at the port of Constantin, prompting Bucharest to ask Kiev to program its maritime drones to self-destruct if they approached Romanian water. That seems like a reasonable concept, but the circumstances around Thursday's incident appear very different and perhaps even intentional. At the very least, the fact that an explosive drone ended up just a few hundred meters from the gas project is raising some uncomfortable questions. The project is expected to become Romania's largest natural gas producer when it begins operations next year, and would further cement Romania's position as the EU's leading natural gas producer, strengthening European energy security at a time when the continent has spent years trying to reduce its dependence on Russian energy. Now, as mentioned, we can't say with any certainty whether Russia deliberately sent the drone toward the gas project in an attempt to attack the facility. But coming just hours after another unidentified drone crashed inside Romania during Russia's massive overnight attack on Ukraine, the incident certainly adds to an increasingly uncomfortable pattern along NATO's Eastern Frontier. As we've been tracking on the PDB, alliance members have been dealing with nearly daily drone incursions this summer, as the air and maritime war between Russia and Ukraine increasingly spills beyond Ukraine's borders. Romania alone says Russian drones have entered its airspace dozens of times since the war began, and as we reported last month, Romanian F-16s are no longer simply tracking those incursions, they've started shooting the drones down. Last week NATO fighters also destroyed an unidentified drone that entered Latvia and airspace during a massive Ukrainian attack on targets deep inside Russia. Some of these incidents have relatively benign explanations. Russia's extensive electronic warfare systems can knock Ukrainian drones off course, inadvertently sending them into neighboring NATO countries. But European officials are increasingly concerned that other incidents may represent something else entirely. Russia has been systematically using drones to probe European air defenses and search for weaknesses, according to Germany's top military officer, who recently described the activity to Wall Street Journal as part an intensifying grey zone campaign aimed at destabilizing European governments and institutions. Following Thursday's incident of Romania, European commission president Ursula Von the Dan didn't mince words saying quote, "This is hybrid warfare," end quote. And that's what makes these incidents so difficult and potentially so dangerous. An air and drone could be Ukrainian and simply knocked off course. It could be Russian and stray accidentally across the border during an attack on Ukraine. Or it could be deliberately set toward NATO territory to probe air defenses, test response times, or simply see how far Moscow can push the alliance before the alliance pushes back. That ambiguity gives Russia room to operate below the threshold of open warfare, while forcing NATO countries to make increasingly consequential decisions in real time. Now, I'd coming up in the back of the brief. Researchers say military insiders may be gambling on classified operations and broadcasting those secrets to America's adversaries, more on that when we come back. Hey, even like Baker here, with a pro tip for feeling your best, let me ask you a question. Have you ever finished breakfast or lunch or dinner, but then you find yourself reaching for a snack maybe an hour later, and it's true, cravings can take over, even when trying to eat healthy. And that's exactly why pendulum metabolic daily was designed. Now, you've probably seen all the news about GLP.
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In today's back of the brief, I want to discuss how an online prediction market platform may be giving America's adversaries a new way to pick up on sensitive information about military operations. The platform, facing scrutiny, is polymarket, and there's a good chance that you've heard about it. You may have seen the ads, followed the bedding odds during a major political event, or even used a prediction market yourself. The idea is pretty simple. People put money behind whether they think a future event is going to happen. And new research suggests more than 150 anonymous accounts on polymarket may have been trading with inside knowledge of US military activity. Now, there's a lot of jargon in this report from the nonprofit anti-corruption data collective or ACDC. No, not the amazingly fantastic rock group, but the anti-corruption data collective exclusively reported by Reuters. So I want to walk you through exactly what researchers found because the concern here isn't simply that someone with access to military secrets could potentially make money off of them, but that is optically a concern. It's that once they place that bet, they may be signaling what they know to everyone else watching, including foreign intelligence services. Researchers examined every settled market on polymarket international through the 5th of May, searching for a very particular kind of trader, they call, quote, "orca." In prediction market terms in Orca is essentially an account that suddenly shows up and makes a large bet on something that market thinks probably isn't going to happen. More specifically, the anti-data collective looked for accounts placing at least $2,500 within an hour on an outcome given a 35% chance or less of happening. And these weren't losing gamblers taking wild chances. Researchers found these Orcas would often open an account, quickly make a successful long-shot bet in a niche market where an insider might have an advantage, collect their winnings, and then disappear. ACDC, again, not the amazingly fantastic rock group, identified 556 wallets matching that pattern. I want to pause on that because 152 of them were betting specifically on military and defense events. Together, those 152 accounts made about $8 million with an average win rate of more than 97%. Yeah, you know what, I'm not plural, but that does sound like insider trading. Now, that doesn't prove, though, that those traders possessed classified information, but it's a pretty good bet they did. ACDC, again, not that rock group, acknowledges some could simply be extraordinarily lucky. Oh, yeah, but says those 152 wallets are the most likely to have been trading on military secrets, including dozens never reported before. I want to zoom out here because potentially profiting from confidential government information is only part of the national security concern, although it's a big part of the national security concern. Polymarket sells its trades on a public blockchain, so while the people behind these accounts remain anonymous, the bets themselves are visible for anyone to see. You see where I'm going here. When one of these Orcas suddenly puts thousands of dollars behind an unlikely military event, other traders can see it and start following them. And that's where the next bit of jargon comes in. Whales, basically deep pocketed traders placing very large bets alongside them are automated bots that can detect activity and place waiters of their own. Simply copying another trader's publicly visible bet is legal, but ACDC, you know, I'm not talking about the rock group here, found evidence that whales and bots may be taken potentially suspicious orca bets and amplifying the signal. Here's one example. Hours before US strikes on Iran and June of last year, an Orca bet on imminent American military action. Researchers say a trading bot then followed with a $200,000 wager, while a whale put another $100,000 on the same outcome. ACDC, of course, you know, they're a great band, but I'm not talking about them. I'm talking about the collective, found something similar before US Israeli air strikes on Tecron in February. When Orca wagers appear to trigger a flurry, a first time longshot bets from bots and whales betting on the same outcome. Look, you don't necessarily need hundreds of people leaking American military secrets. Potentially, all it takes is one person with sensitive military knowledge placing a suspicious bet about to text it, a whale follows it, other traders pile in. And suddenly, what began as one person's wager becomes a much louder signal that something may be about to happen. And there's nothing preventing a foreign intelligence service from watching the same thing. We already have a real world case showing why those concerns aren't theoretical. Earlier this year, US Army soldier Ganon Ken Van Dyke was charged with allegedly using classified information to make roughly $400,000 betting on the operation that removed Venezuelan leader Nicholas Maduro. He's pleaded not guilty. Interestingly, Van Dyke isn't even among those 152 military orcas we just discussed. Researchers say he built his position more slowly, meaning there are methodology didn't flag him, and the true number of potential insiders could be higher. So if sensitive US military information continues showing up in the betting markets, America's adversaries don't need to steal the secret. They just need to be watching a betting platform. And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Friday, the 21st of August. If you have any questions or comments, just reach out to me at
[email protected]. And of course, don't forget, as if we'd let you, every Friday at 10 p.m. on the first TV, we launch a brand new episode of our extended weekend show, the pdb's situation report. As always, you can catch it and past episodes also on our YouTube channel. Just go on over to YouTube and search up at President's Daily Brief, as well as on podcast platforms everywhere. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the pdb afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.
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