I break down the new wars and weapons systems that are totally reshaping our world in my show Kappy Army, but we go beyond simply just telling you what happened in a war, we actually investigate deeper into the why and how. At Kappy Army, everything is informed by my experience as an average US Army infantryman in Iraq, and a war correspondent covering the front lines of the war in Ukraine. Just search Kappy Army on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to get weekly open source intelligence reports and remember to follow today. It's Wednesday, the 19th of August. Welcome to the PDB afternoon bulletin. I'm Mike Baker from your eyes and ears on the world stage. Alright, let's get briefed. Next up, Iran is reportedly considering expanding its war with the US into Europe, potentially targeting American military assets and critical undersea cables. Later in the show, one of Ukraine's president Zelensky's longtime allies turns against him, demanding elections amid corruption allegations within Ukraine's political establishment. But first, today's afternoon spotlight. Iran is reportedly preparing options to expand its war with the US beyond the Middle East, potentially targeting American military assets in Europe and the undersea cables carrying international communications through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the Financial Times, two people close to Iran's regime say that Iranian forces have assessed potential strikes against US assets in southeastern Europe if President Trump launches another major offensive against the Islamic Republic. Reportedly, the regime is in the contingency planning stage with Tehran examining how it could raise the cost for Washington if the conflict escalates again. And the potential targets are notable. One is Bulgaria, where the Bulgarian government recently approved the use of Bezmer Air Base by American refueling aircraft. Bulgaria is obviously a member of NATO, meaning even an unsuccessful Iranian attack could introduce an entirely new alliance dynamic into this conflict. Iran has also reportedly examined potential targets in Cyprus, where the UK operates its equatorial airbase. The facility was struck by a drone in March shortly after the US and Israel launched their war against Iran. Western officials suspected that drone was Iranian, although it may have been launched by one of Tehran's regional proxies rather than directly from Iran. Either way, the message from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRG scene, has been consistent. Any base, used to launch or support attacks against Iran, could be treated as a legitimate target, regardless of where that base is located. Up to this point, Tehran has largely concentrated its attacks on American military bases, energy infrastructure, and commercial vessels across the Middle East. But Iranian commanders are now warning that the next phase could reach farther into southern Europe and potentially beyond. Now obviously, a key question is whether Iran could actually do that. The answer appears to be yes, but with some significant limitations. Iran possesses medium-range ballistic missiles, including variants of its Shahab series that could potentially reach American facilities in southern and south-eastern Europe. But the farther those missiles travel, the more difficult it becomes to carry a heavy warhead and strike a target accurately. And we've already seen those limitations. Earlier this year, Iran reportedly fired several missiles toward Diego Garcia, the joint American British military base in the Indian Ocean, roughly 2,500 miles away. None of those missiles reached their target. Turkey has also said that NATO air defenses intercepted several ballistic missiles launched from Iran in March. On the other hand, Tehran's capabilities do appear to be somewhat improving. Last month, the Iranian strike on an American base in Jordan killed three U.S. service members. One Iranian insider described that as the most precise long-range attack that the Islamic Republic has ever conducted, and said it was also intended as a warning to Europe. So Iran may not be able to reliably hit every distant target that it threatens, but it only takes one missile, getting through to turn a regional war into something potentially much larger. And ballistic missiles may not even be Iran's best option. Many analysts say that Tehran could have more success, working through its network of proxies, including Khazbullah, the Houthis, and Shia militians in Iraq. Those groups could launch drones from locations closer to Europe, attack military facilities, or conduct sabotage operations, while preserving some degree of deniability for the regime, well, some degree of deniability if you're a complete more honoured, simply naive. Iran has also reportedly examined another form of retaliation, attacking, undersea fiber optic cables in the Strait of Hormuz. Those cables carry enormous volumes of international communications and financial data between Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, damaging them would allow Iran to strike at the global economy without firing a missile at a city or military base. And all of this is emerging, as diplomacy with Tehran appears to have collapsed. The June agreement between the U.S. and the Iran fell apart after Tehran attacked vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and both sides accused the other of violating the deal. Negotiations to reopen the waterway have stalled, and President Trump said Tuesday that there are no talks currently underway or scheduled. At the same time, regime hardliners have been moved into some of the country's most important security positions. That includes Mosin Rezai, a former revolutionary guard commander, who was appointed last week as Iran's top security official. Iranian analysts believe that appointment was a message to Washington. If the U.S. can't reach an agreement with Tehran's negotiators, it will have to deal with individuals far more willing to escalate. One Iranian insider summarized the message this way, quote, "Don't be mad because I matter than you are." Some insider on reportedly worry that the regime is overplaying its hand. That's possible. Tehran may be exaggerating its capabilities in an effort to frighten European governments, discourage them from supporting American operations, and to tear Trump from attacking Iranian infrastructure. But even if these threats are partly theater, the contingency planning behind them will that appears to be real. Coming up next, political tensions erupt in Kiev, as Ukrainian President Zelensky's former ally demands elections and investigators search the office of a senior presidential aid. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. With a message for dog lovers, now if you're like me and my family, dogs are an important part of your life, and feeding them right is important. If your dog is a picky eater, well maybe it's because your dog knows the difference between junk and real food. If your dog just sits there, staring at a bowl of processed pellets, I tell you, it's time to switch to Sundays for dogs. Sundays for dogs is different, founded by a veterinarian. Sundays blends over 80% all natural meats with superfoods, like kale, ginger, and blueberries. There's no fellers, there's no synthetics, just complete nutrition. 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At Kappy Army, everything is informed by my experience as an average US Army infantryman in Iraq and a war correspondent covering the front lines of the war in Ukraine. Research Kappy Army on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to get weekly open source intelligence reports. And remember to follow today. Welcome back to the PDB afternoon bulletin. Ukraine has largely managed to keep its political divisions from boiling over during the past several years of Vladimir Putin's war.
Now, one of President Zelensky's longtime former allies is openly challenging him, saying the war can no longer keep the country's democracy hostage. Alistair Defense Minister Mikhailov Fedorov is calling for Ukraine to hold elections, arguing that the country is facing what he calls "systemic crisis of governance." Now, he's the first major Ukrainian political figure to publicly make that demand since Russia launched its full scale invasion back in 2022, and it's a fairly remarkable one in a country that's still fighting for its survival. Under Ukrainian law, elections cannot be held while the country remains under martial law. As it stands, hundreds of thousands of troops are still fighting along the front, of course, while Russian missiles and drones continue raining down on Ukraine's cities. A poll from the Kiev International Institute of Sociology earlier this month found that 57% of Ukrainians believe that elections should wait until the war is over. But Fedorov argues Ukraine may no longer have the luxury of waiting. In an address posted to YouTube Tuesday, he said, quote, "democracy cannot be held hostage by Russia. We must find a legal, safe, and realistic mechanism that will allow Ukraine to renew its full democratic process, even in the conditions of a long war," end quote. And there's an important distinction here. Fedorov's argument is that Russian President Putin should not get to invade Ukraine and simply by keeping the war going, effectively prevent Ukrainians from exercising their democracy indefinitely. And that brings us to Fedorov himself, because this would be a lot easier for Zelensky to brush aside if it were coming from some fringe politician. But Fedorov spent years as one of Zelensky's closest allies. He became the youngest cabinet member in Ukrainian history at the age of 28 and spent six years building Ukraine's digital transformation ministry. And then came the war. And Fedorov became one of the driving forces behind Ukraine's embrace of drones and technology to kill Russian troops and destroy Russian equipment. Now the Kremlin may be perfectly happy, of course, to seize Zelensky under this kind of political pressure. Putin has wanted to oust him for years. But Moscow would likely not be overly excited to see someone like Fedorov take his place. He's 35 years old, which means he was just a baby when the Soviet Union collapsed, and his entire life has been spent knowing Ukraine as an independent country, rather than some appendage of Moscow. If Putin thinks Zelensky is difficult to deal with, well, there's little in Fedorov's record suggesting that Moscow would enjoy what could follow. And Zelensky may have a more immediate reason to worry about just how popular Fedorov has become inside Ukraine. When he fired him from the defense ministry after only six months, thousands poured into the streets, demanding Fedorov be brought back, and military chief Oleksandr Searsky be removed. While Fedorov very notably did not use his address on YouTube to announce a presidential campaign, a recent poll found he would comfortably beat Zelensky and a hypothetical runoff. And that's where we have to go back to why Fedorov was fired. Zelensky blamed the decision on Fedorov's inability to work with Searsky. Their relationship had deteriorated badly, and their differences exposed a serious divide over how Ukraine should fight the war. But Fedorov suggests there was more going on behind the scenes. In his address, he laid out his belief that his effort to overhaul the defense ministry's procurement system and root out corruption involving billions of dollars in military contracts also contributed to his firing. The pressure became intense enough at that point that Zelensky also fired Searsky. Now Fedorov is aiming that frustration directly at Ukraine's political establishment. Without naming anyone specifically, he said, quote, "the old system lives by its own rules too often. Our people have long been ready for a different country. Our state must become worthy of its people." But there's another reason that the timing of Fedorov's comments is important. The hours after he accused Ukraine's political system of protecting itself and failing to root out corruption, anti-corruption authorities announced that a deputy in Zelensky's presidential office was among the suspects in an alleged $3.4 million money laundering scheme. Investigators say the group was trying to launder the money to pay bail for a defendant caught up in another major corruption case. That investigation from last November centered on an alleged $100 million kickback scheme involving Ukraine's state-owned nuclear power company and forced out the country's justice and energy ministers. Then today, Zelensky fired one of his most senior aides, Irina Moudra, as investigators searched her office. Those investigators have not publicly identified Moudra as a suspect. Importantly, for Ukraine, the European Union has made clear that deep-rooted corruption remains a major hurdle to membership. And of course, every new corruption case now gives Fedorov more ammunition for his argument that the government still needs reforming. And while all that plays out, Parliament has just confirmed Yevheni Ekmara as Fedorov's permanent replacement at the defense ministry. He's a former top special forces operative, briefly served as acting head of Ukraine's SPU Security Service, and is best known as one of the architects behind Ukraine's deep strikes inside Russia. He'll inherit a ministry that's gone through an extraordinary amount of turnover. And with Ukraine's political tensions being further exposed in public, well, somewhere, off in the distance, Putin sits alone in one of his palatial residences, quietly chuckling while stroking his hairless cat. And that, my friends, is the PDB, afternoon bulletin, for Wednesday, the 19th of August. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. And to listen to the show Add Free, you can do that. It's very, very simple. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting PDBpremium.com. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Now let me take just a moment to talk to you about an incredibly important subject. It's actually the key to your health, and I'm talking about sleep. So let me ask you a question. Do you snore? I know. It's a personal question. And as a result of your snoring, did somebody, maybe your partner, hand you a CPAP machine? 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