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Asking a Billionaire Investor How to Turn $10,000 into $1M ft. Mohnish Pabrai

80m 35s

Asking a Billionaire Investor How to Turn $10,000 into $1M ft. Mohnish Pabrai

The core argument is that turning a significant sum like $10,000 into $1,000,000 requires a disciplined, two-pronged approach centered on the rarity of exceptional investments. First, establish a reliable foundation (Plan A) by consistently investing savings into a stable, compounding vehicle like Berkshire Hathaway, treated as an index. This provides steady growth through doubling over time. Second, actively but patiently search for anomalous, high-conviction opportunities (Plan B). These are rare investments that seem illogical or "too good to be true," where the numbers appear drastically mispriced, as illustrated by the Frontline shipping company example. To find such ideas efficiently, one can use curated sources like the Value Investors Club to screen for potential anomalies instead of manually reviewing vast data. However, any idea must be rigorously researched independently. The process emphasizes depth over breadth, patience, and the temperament to act decisively on the few extraordinary opportunities that may arise only once every few years, leveraging them to significantly accelerate the path to the financial goal.

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How would I take 10k and turn it into a million what we're looking for is something that hits you in the head With like a two-by-four we don't need to know many things about many things We need to know a lot about a little. What do you think most people don't do that? Buffet always says the most important question to ask is and then what? Does he use Excel? Lauren wouldn't be caught dead using Excel Usually the best ideas when you finally figure that out they're very simple You should be able to explain your thesis of a stock in about four or five sentences to a 10-year-old Where do you even know where to look? I'm gonna lay it out for you. It's going to be so easy. All someone has to do Okay, here we go. Oh, nice welcome back round two Sean, it's only the pleasure. So let's play game. You're my coach. You're my investing coach Let's say and I have $10,000 and I want to turn it into a million right podcast called my first million I want to go from 10k to a million So that's a hundred X. How would I take 10k and turn it into a million the thing about investing is that Opportunities are not going to show up Just because you have the cash. So I would make some tweaks to your thinking first about the 10k So I would say okay, the 10k is a good starting point But I what I also want you to do Separately from that is have a day job. Yeah, okay, and I want you to spend less than you're earning and I want you to take the 10k and I also want to take your annual savings. Maybe that's 5,000 a year or whatever it is and Normally, I would say put it into an index right the index that the S&P is overheated. We can't go there right now So cut 2025 we cannot go into the S&P. Okay, okay, maybe 2035 we can but not 2025 So what I would do is I would treat Berkshire Hathaway as the index So I would just say the default Currently is you put it, you know dollar cost average into the Into Berkshire class pieces, okay, and you keep doing that day in day out and if we did that You know the the math is really simple Even if we were doing 10% a year, right? I mean which I think is pretty reasonable for Berkshire Rule of 72 we would double every seven years Life is all about doubles. Okay, let's say we had a 20 something guy with 10,000 and you go for 50 years or 49 years It's seven doubles. Right. Okay, seven doubles is 128 Okay, it's 128 times your money. I give you more than a hundred X. Right. I gave you 128 decks in 49 years without having to Genius without doing anything right? So this is just plan B right where we put the 10,000 in it becomes more than a million 1.3 Million with no taxes paid. Right. There's no dividend. There's no taxes. There's nothing and we haven't even gone to plan eight Right. This is just sitting there now the other thing is that every once in a while there'll be Opportunities that show up and what we're looking for is something that hits you in the head with like a two by four So the best investments are ones that make no sense You cannot make sense of the numbers. It's too good to be true It's just weird and all of those things so when when these kind of Unusual things come together where things don't make sense. Right. That's when we want to dive in give me an example of A great investment is one that doesn't make any sense the numbers just seem wrong and you know to you in the moment Well, I'll I'll give you one example where it was a moneymaker for me but I Didn't make even three percent of the money. I should have okay, you know, I mean it was like It was given to me on a platter and I blew it. I still made money, right You know usually the best ideas when you finally figure that out. They're very simple So in in the year. I think this was like around 2001 or 2002 I had encountered the this shipping company Call front line and front line was a company that owned a fleet of about 75 VLCs very large crude carriers These are giant ships that transport crude from like Saudi Arabia to the U.S and they're just huge the entire global fleet at that time was 300 ships 300 VLCs 75 of them were owned by front line 25 percent of the market The the guy who ran and was a founder of front line john Fredrickson Had put the entire fleet on the spot market So there two ways he could have dealt with his fleet he could have done time chargers Kind of one year three year deals where he's guaranteed cashless per day and all that or be a gambler put it on the spot market and play it whatever the price today is right Although so he had put it on the spot market the entire fleet Now these VLCs they have a cost with the crews and all of that Off around $15,000 per day to break even and at that time we had like the Iraq war and different things going on so oil demand fell a lot and There wasn't enough need for VLCs So the shipping rates collapsed to the point they went to 7,000 per day Okay, so now you have front line losing 8,000 per day time 75 ships right okay and They're levered okay and so basically The stock got taken out back and shot okay Like a 90% drop okay and Most of it was valid because basically you know when we are making investments or when The equity markets look at a company they want to see Consistency of cashless they reward consistency of cashless here what we were seeing is consistency of losses Okay, no one could tell you when these losses will abate so The the dynamics were the stock I think was down to like three dollars per share and when I looked at it I noticed two things okay the first thing I noticed is all that debt Was non-recourse that debt was tied to individual ships There was no debt at the parent right so basically if they defaulted On the debt of a ship the bank could just take the ship they couldn't really take the company could just take that ship They take a Carlo right right and the second thing I noticed was that There's a very somewhat liquid market to buy and sell these ships. So even when The rates went to 7,000 per day The ships had dropped in price by something like maybe a third 25 30% drop from where they used to be right so What I realized is that if front line got into a Crunch where they were having cash problems They could just sell three ships if they sold three ships paid off the debt. They'd have enough cash Left over to keep sustaining operations for six to nine months. They could sell three more ships after that So I felt like there was really no way the company was a candidate for bankruptcy And there was really no way and the other thing is I could I could look at the entire company And say okay, what did they sold all the ships? If they sold all the ships paid off all the debt You would end up with like nine or ten dollars a share You're at three bucks, right? Okay, so you'd make three times your money if they just liquidated the whole business So there was a arbitrage between the price of the stock and the net price of the assets in a distress scenario, right? And so I said okay, we really can't lose money here So I put 10% of my fund into front line, right because I just couldn't see away that we could lose money After a few months the rates start improving the oil demand starts coming back up The rates go to 15,000 then they go to 20,000 The stocks at ten bucks, okay, I sell my shares Well done Monash, okay, tripled my money. Yeah, in like eight months or something. Okay, and I said okay, this was exactly what I thought right Rates then go to 300,000 a day, okay, at 300,000 a day they're making something like 285,000 a day times 75 ships Okay, that number is like infinity Yeah, I was trying to do the math just assume it's infinite The stock goes up in the next three years 80X. Oh, okay, here's stupid Monash Okay, patting himself on the back with the double and I didn't even get a double I got like 80% return my money and that was that and so That was an example of where I did first order thinking But I did not do second order thinking. So the second order thinking was you know, Buffett always says That the most important question to ask in investing is and then what If I had been so smart as to ask the question and then what So you see that rates are terrible You see the scrapping you see that that fleets gonna shrink So even if oil demand doesn't come back the way it was It's gonna come into balance Eventually that those laws are the gonna go away and then you do the next thing on den what which is that when Oil demand comes back It takes three to four years to build one of these shinks So when the rates went to 30,000 or 50,000 and all these guys can see this is a great business now Well, when you go to the Korean shipyards Who are now inundated with orders They're gonna say go to the back of the queue I'll give you a ship in five years and by the way the ship is no longer 70 million the new price is 120 right okay because I got more orders than I can handle right so We had this dynamic if I had thought about it that once the demand became tight You really couldn't increase supply for at least three or four years So what's 285,000 times 75 times 1000 days right that's the minimum number of time when that Price is not gonna come down It's only after three or four years more ships start getting delivered and you start getting more balance and all of that But that's an insane amount of cash flow, right? So the thing is that There are always like you know our friend Jim Kramer says there's always a bull market somewhere okay, so basically If we if we are Plan A Berkshire Hathaway Plan B looking for anomalies, right? Every so often not not very often every so often You will find something weird and we've got all the time in the world We can research something for three months. It turns out it's not that great. Let it go. Right. We got Berkshire shell cranking Okay, so if you look at Warren Buffett, you know in his 20-22 letter. He said that in 58 years of running Berkshire There have been 12 decisions That have moved the needle for Berkshire stock Now in 58 years he made more than three or four hundred purchase decisions for stocks and businesses, okay Out of 300 if I take conservative number it's actually more than that only 12 Were exceptional and he said there was one good idea on average every five years Okay, this is Warren Buffett right with a 4% hit rate, okay, so basically great investment ideas are rare We're not going to run into them every week or every month or every year So Plan A stick it in the index plan B keep Running a guy go counterware everything looking at different things And when something doesn't make sense to drill down and every so often You're going to hit the mother load right and when you find something that's a mother load You peel off 10 15% of what you have in Berkshire put it into that Let it play out then put it back into Berkshire right right and just you keep doing that and now Your hundred X is going to show up in half the time or less All right, let's take a quick break because they got a little freebie for you So if you're listening to this episode and you like what Monisha is talking about You might be like me you're trying to take notes You're trying to remember these principles that he's talking about because the dude is just a wealth of knowledge when it comes to investing Well, the fine folks at HubSpot listen to this episode They took the transcript they put down the nine principles that he talks about as well as the examples that he have And they put it all in a PDF for you. So you don't need to take notes. They did it all for you You could read that learn from it. That's the much better way to get more value out of these episodes It's in the show notes below. Just go download that and enjoy So you you tell me the story about these ships and when you explain it I can see it just like you see it. Oh, that's the opportunity But the thing I don't get is why are you looking at crude oil ships? How do I get to like how do I even know where to look? And so it what is that process for you? Do you do you pick one industry and look at a hundred companies in it? Do you read books on 50 industries? Do you look at what other investors are doing and try to reverse engineer like Where do you even know where to look? I'm going to lay it out for you It's going to be so easy, but but it takes a certain temperament. Okay. So first I want to talk about the temperament. Okay So if you go back to Warren Buffett when he was a teenager He used to go to the race track in Omaha and one of the things he did at the race track He was like 14 years old or something is after all the races had been done He'd pick up all the tickets that people had left thrown on the ground, right? These are Mostly losing tickets, right? They just kind of toss them from the garbage cans. He'd pull them on out Then he'd go home and one by one look at every ticket He would find now sometimes a horse would come in second and the ticket was for bin or place It was actually a winning ticket, but they didn't understand they were drunk or whatever. Right. So he'd always find a bunch of tickets which were actually in the money But they'd been discarded So now he was underage. He couldn't go to the counter to collect the money So he'd give it all to his aunt Alice his favorite aunt She used to go to the counter collect the money and give it to him. Okay So When Warren when Warren became older let's say when he was let's say 24 or 25 years old He went through the Moody's manual And what he was doing at the Moody's manual and you know For nostalgia, I bought these on eBay and I wanted you to see the Moody's manual. Okay. So so this is Off it was Buffett was 23 years old This was his nighttime casual reading. This was his so what he did now with the Moody's manual They were they were a number of these that came out to like in the year 1953. This is just Railroad airline shipping traction breasts and truck. I don't even know what this is. Is this the earnings reports of all of the company line of that day Okay, so if you if I open the Moody's manual to any random page, okay What what it's doing is it's got like two or three companies per page. You can see how fine the printers. Yeah All right, you need like a magnifying glass and it's basically giving you a summary of Every company, right? Now Buffett went through now. This is just one of them in 1953 for 1953 They were probably about seven or eight of these books that came on in 53 similar number in 54 55 so on So you're talking about a big stack, right? He went through these books Two or three times he went through what he did is he read each one Page by page, right? And he was looking what he was looking for he was looking for anomalies So he used to host these MBA students and actually he brought he brought for them Printouts from the Moody's manual to the ones that he made an investment in so he would find something like Western insurance for example where the stock price was 15 And the earnings last year were 25 Okay, the stock is 15 dollars a share earnings at 25 dollars a share book value is 80 dollars a share, right? Okay That's what we call an anomaly right hitting you by a head head with a two-by-four Makes no sense Right he would make a list of all these companies. It made no sense in the positive direction, right? Okay And then he'd study them and then he would make investments, right now In order for Warren to find Western insurance He would He might have had to spend 14 hours a day Okay non-stop reading these for three months Before he finds one or two of them But he only needs very few of them and Warren's mind You know, he's he's a prodigy so his mind Was programmed to have this intense The the work never bothered him Just like no other teenagers were going and collecting all those tickets on the floor and then going through each one with the optimism that I'm going to find something that is Basically a free lunch, right and so he went through the movies manual and Basically started finding these anomalies and then started making investments in them and did well, etc now We have a shortcut You know because I know that your listeners are not going to do what Buffett did Okay, I cannot do what Buffett did I do not have the wherewithal And the ferocious Intensity that Warren does almost no one does I think that he's just a extreme anomaly on that front So for example, there's a website called Value Investors Club Okay, now if you go to Value Investors Club, it's free. You don't have to pay anything whatever If you give them your email, you can see all ideas that are 60 days or older Okay, and if you don't give them your email you can see all ideas that are 120 days and older It actually doesn't matter because there's ideas and values and assist clubs that are 10 years old 15 years old It's very difficult to become a member of Value Investors Club posting ideas So it's like a curated website, right? Okay, the members have to submit Two ideas a year which get a decent rating in order to keep their membership So you have what I have found is the Value Investors Club has a lot of brain power It has brain power coming out of their ears. Okay, it's all free so All someone has to do is sit down and read the write-ups on Value Investors Club So there may be I don't know 600 700 800 write-ups maybe 500 write-ups in a year Each write-up may be around 10 15 pages max then there's comments and whatever but what I'm saying is that It's much easier than the Moody's Manning right because someone is actually digesting the information for you You could do one of those a day. You could easily do one. Well, I wonder one of those there is pathetic I'm saying even that even you said if there's 300 told yeah, but I'm just saying it would be easy for someone Without getting putting too much work into it to read four or five ideas a day I mean they could have a full-time job and easily do that That's not a difficult thing to do and you don't need to read the whole idea what I would say is you read The first few paragraphs and see if this is something that's interesting you or not or something that's grabbing you and right And what I do is I look at every idea that's supposed it right and I don't I don't Care to really look at them right when they're posted because they actually those ideas would work even five years from now Like recently I started Investing in a in a company where the original write-up was in 2021 Okay, it's 2025 still valid Okay, now what you still have to do is You should use it only as an input to ideas just like the moody's manual is not telling you what to buy and sell Once you see the idea you do all your own work to do your research do everything Make sure it's something you understand well make sure it's within your circular competence Whether you buy into the idea or not etc. And Buffett Buffett is still doing this. So his Japanese bets So there's a there's another book called the Japan company handbook. Okay, and and I'm gonna bring the Japan company Okay, all right here. We have it and I'm excited about this because you hear a lot about Buffett's, you know Seas candy, Coke, Geika like those kind of well-known Buffett's best bets. Yeah, but as I understand it Buffett made some incredible investments in Japan. So let me explain how no brainer The total no brainer nature of that bet. Right. Okay, so these Five Japanese trading companies had a 8% dividend yield Okay, so they were paying a 8% dividend. It was very cheap. Japan has the index has not gone anywhere for like 30 years and Warren actually Got a insane return on these. So what he did is He borrowed the entire amount in yen At half a percent a year and it was not a small amount. It was like five billion. Yeah, yeah He put five billion, but he borrowed the five billion at half a percent the whole thing in yen In Japan, right? So now he's bought Japanese company paying dividends in yen, which he's bought in yen, right? The dividend coverage is 16 times His interest payment so he put no equity, right? And he's instantly making 7 and a half percent on five billion, which is like, you know, what about 35400 million out of nothing, right? It's just coming to him now. What happens is because these companies are so cheap In about three or four years, they're all doubled in price Right, so now the five billion has become 10 billion. Okay, the equity that went in is nothing. So it's infinite return They all raised the dividend the dividend based on the original purchase price is about 15 percent Okay, so basically and then after that what he did is he increased the bet So he was he was under five percent of all of them He's now approaching 10 percent on all of them and anyone Could have looked at the Japanese company handbook. Basically, I think it's it's a matter of How hungry are you? It's the same as any entrepreneur, right? I mean basically Anyone who starts a business whatever they've they got to go all in right now intense passion 18 hours a day all in Very strong belief. It's the same thing here if you truly are focused on it you can do very well. I mean the universe was gonna conspire to help you With whatever your passion is and it's just a matter of whether you want it by the way does he use Excel? Well, no, he does not use Excel for sure. Okay. He uses his computer now. Now he uses Google and all that But he uses computer mainly to pray bridge. I mean one wouldn't be caught dead using Excel Okay, because the thing is that He's looking for things that hit you in the head with a two by four right? So when he's going through a Japan company handbook Got a moody's manual. There is no excel needed What what what will excel help you with when the earnings at $25 a share of the stock is $15 You don't need Excel right okay when when the different deal is 8% and you're borrowing at half percent you don't need excel right okay In fact if you need excel It's an automatic pass Because it means that there's something complicated there which is not fitting in did I need excel for front line? No I didn't need excel for front line. I mean I look up the liquidation price of the ships I look up the weather ships are at I look at all I mean the thing is all these things are very basic numbers You don't need excel for it. Right. You know Recently I was talking to a friend of mine looking he's looking at some international stock exchange Okay, this international stock exchange trades at a trailing PE of like 30 okay It's growing at 15 20% a year very rapid growth. Okay 60% of revenue is profit Okay, and as they grow that 60% might become 70% because they got operating leverage So if you just forward two or three years the PE becomes less than 10 Okay, there is no need for excel right you can just do it all in your head Okay, it's got $10 of herring today. It's gonna have $12 a year from now 14 15 dollars two years from now Maybe 17 or 18 dollars three years from now Stocks at 300 Now when you're 18 you're already at a 15 multiple Right, you already cut it in half right is growing By that time it may be trading it should be trading it even more than 30 times earnings So the stock may be at like, you know 6 or 700 by then Right, it's just in just just the math of all of that So what I'm saying is that if you can't do the math in your head It's an automatic pass Because that means there's something complicated so another important thing is You should be able to explain your thesis of a stock in about four or five sentences to a 10-year-old Okay, if you can't do that It's a pass You can't sit down with a 10-year-old with an Excel spreadsheet Okay, they're not going to like you and they're not going to be interested right Einstein used to say there's like four levels of intelligence smart intelligent genius simple Okay, the highest level of intellect is simplicity right and the other thing about investing is that you have to have conviction It's very difficult to have conviction if you keep needing to go back and look at your Excel mod Right, you need it in your head. So Buffett never needs to go anywhere. It's in his head He knows what the different yield is He knows what he paid. He knows what the yen is. He knows all of that It's pre-programmed right so we have Don't use Excel. Don't overcomplicate it is really what that means and the second is leverage Don't over leverage and I think the the story here that I like is There should be a third bust on this on this table next to us Somebody's missing that was an original partner with them. Yeah, can you tell that story? I think I had his name to Rick so actually Warren Charlie and Rick Gurren Used to do deals together and they were all independent doing the thing but they used to share ideas and sometimes they'd go in together Rick found blue chip stamps for them and I think he also might have been the guy Sees candy contacted and so on after the early 70s. We never heard about Rick He kind of fell off the radar So when I met Warren for lunch, I asked him just a very innocent question. I said Warren What happened to Rick? You know, it's with three of you and then we know hurt from him after that and Warren said that Charlie and I knew that we would get very rich and we were not in a hurry and he said Rick was in a hurry and So Rick was always using some leverage and then when the 73 74 downturn came That was a very intense. That was a crash and slow motion basically, okay Over a two-year period of the stocks went down like more than 40-50 percent. It was a big big drawdown and Rick got margin calls and And Warren said that when he got the margin calls I bought his Berkshire Hathaway for $40 a share The stock that's now 700,000, right? So Rick was forced to sell it At a time when it was probably the worst time to sell, right? And so then Warren actually went one step further because he's always trying to add value of these lunches and all that so he says He says to me and guy he said if you're even a slightly above average investor And you spend less than you earn and you use no leverage You cannot help but get rich in a lifetime Tell me about the difference between risk and uncertainty Yeah, well, that's an important concept to understand Because Wall Street gets confused between the two And in fact when Wall Street gets confused between the two is where the greatest opportunities lie Okay, so we talked about front line Front line with an example of a situation where uncertainty was extremely high And risk was very low Right What Wall Street is looking for is certainty Okay, so If we look at a company like ADP, you know, the process payroll, right? I don't know, they've had some like 50 years of non-stop growth Because you know your payroll, your running payroll is going to keep going up, your cash flow is going to go up It's all in a straight line That's beautiful And Wall Street will reward you extremely well for that Right And it's priced accurately It'll be priced for euphoria It'll be over priced Because they love that That's what they're looking for On the other hand That's their type Yeah, I mean, that's music to the ears On the other hand, if a company exhibits high uncertainty It will be taken out back and short Right And those are where the opportunity lies So one of the cues to look for is Is this a business with low risk and high uncertainty The combination of the two And when you get to the combination of the two, low risk plus high uncertainty equals high rewards I was looking at your portfolio and you have this Company invested in Turkey, that's like a Coke bottling Company Would you say that's a good example of kind of the risk and uncertainty mismatch Yeah, we actually made money on it, but we exited Okay, and the reason I exited is that So the Coke bottler Basically had a parent company Which was the dominant beer bottler in Turkey and several other countries Their largest operations were in Russia Where they had a, their number one market share 50-50 joint venture with Amin Bev And Russia has effectively nationalized that business I see And I think they did it because they were somewhat upset with Erdogan about something So they went and did that What is support for Ukraine or something And when that happened, it became When in the two-hard pile for us Explain the two-hard pile, that's something I stole from you Yeah, last time I was here Well, it's a it's a warrant thing, we'll get to it in a second, but basically It was something I couldn't hand it to Sure, so we were sitting at a gain And we have this event take place I get to get my bet back with some added return And we close it, I said, where do I sign? Right, right, I can go find something else to play with But the two-hard pile is actually a physical box on Warren's desk Okay, and so actually if you google it, if you just google Warren Buffett Two-hard, the image will probably pop up Okay, so he has a box on his desk which he calls two-hard and he says that 99% or more of investment ideas that you encounter Should go into their box Because we're not going to be able to figure it out So one of the things to understand is that if there's 50,000 stocks in the world We are not really going to understand more than a few hundred of them at the most After quite a while of studying them So most companies that we would encounter should go into that box Okay, so it's the one of the important things in investing is humility Humility to understand, I mean Warren has no issues with the humility to know That he doesn't know most things Right, that most things are not going to Be able to be figured out or handicapped or any of that And we don't need to if you can understand a very small sliver of things And you know when those things get overpriced and underpriced That's all you need, right? You don't need anything else There's a guy who owns a bunch of real estate but like in a very small area, right? Yeah, that's John Erieger Yeah, what's his story? Because it sounds like it's a good example of this, a very thin sort of competence But he knew the pricing and was able to So John Erieger was a billionaire, he passed away maybe like two, three years ago pretty recent And his daughter's married to Mark and Reese, that's right Yeah, you know, so it's billionaire to the power of billionaire So anyway, John Erieger basically had a very narrow circle of competence He didn't understand most things, but he only invested in real estate within two miles of the Stanford campus Okay, that's all you usually just write around the campus And if you walked with him around the campus every single building he could tell you the full history of the building When was built, what the current value was, what the rents were, who the owners were and what the history was He knew that I would have your building and you know, so he was a He was an inch wide and a mile deep And that is a really good trait for an investor Is to be very narrowly focused, right? Now what John Erieger did is he ran generally speaking a very under levered portfolio He or his portfolio always Not much not much debt When the downturns came He aggressively bought because all these distressed properties around I mean, this is the most prime real estate You can think of other than park avenue or something Okay, and so he would just buy these things up and Everyone was getting foreclosed and bankrupt and go to the banks and buy it from them and all of that and then you know get them all Least and fair value and all of that again take the leverage down and again next down cycle again the same thing And he's he stuck to that so the thing is he didn't wander into oh, let me go to mountain view and do it right okay Let me go to oh when california and do it. He didn't do all that. I mean, he's basically all let me invest in tech or something He didn't do any of that. He stuck to real estate. That's all he did And he did it extremely well and he died a billionaire We don't need to know many things about many things We need to know a lot about a little That's the important thing right know a lot about a little right? So like for example if I'm looking at front line I should learn everything I can about shipping. I should learn everything I can about oil shipping about tankers about the history Who makes them and every nuance about it right the deeper I go The better it's going to be for me right okay. I shouldn't be spending time next week on airplanes Okay, the sleeper alone like one by one by one right why do you think most people don't do that because you when I hear that I think Ah, there's a blueprint to just say I'm going to go deep and in this two mile radius I need to become super knowledgeable and I don't need to get distracted by everything else and I'll hold forever Like that's a blueprint if you think about it. I think it was next leap who has this this quote. He said the best investors Are entrepreneurs who never sold so if you think about entrepreneurs That's what they are they are John area guy right so if I look at Sam Walton Sam Walton is John area guy all he did was retail All he did was visit competitive stores. He never bothered anything else. So Sam Walton founder of Walmart. Yeah, I mean what do you mean tell me more about it? We can well, so Sam Walton Uh, I mean he said that there is There is no human Who has ever lived or ever will live Who has spent more time in comparator stores than me Okay, whenever he's going vacation with his family and they were passing a retail so he's I'd be back in 20 minutes And you go hey, what is he doing in there? What what did he do? So I'll give you I'll give you an example One time he went into the store and this manager says to him That was such a badly run operation And Sam says to him yes, but did you see the candle display? Did you see how fantastic that candle display was so his perspective was I can learn from losers Okay, I want to learn that spark that's there in something that's a total loser right so he was going in and now one time In Brazil in this This retail store they find this older guy flat on the ground they call the paramedics It turns out it's Sam Walton and what he was doing is he was measuring The space between the aisles and he didn't have a tape which is body. So he laid down He laid and you know the space between the aisles is a very important data Point for a retailer because you're going to either way square footage or be too narrow and the people won't enjoy the experience So you have to get that right And so he was in Brazil saying How are they doing it? Am I three inches too wide in Walmart? Am I three inches too narrow? What am I what's going on here, right? So that was this was a game of inches That's who Sam Walton was and in fact Walmart Has not innovated at all At least for the first 20 25 years that Walmart ran Everything came from somebody else who was already a comparator They took a lot from Sears. They took a lot from Kmart and then they killed them and they kept learning from one comparator after another So I'm Walton actually used to say I'm not the smartest tool in the toolbox. I'm not a smart guy But I'm a learning machine. I'm going to keep at this and what others have become so you know It's very funny He goes and visits sole price the founder of price club, which eventually leads to Costco Right, and he looks at price club and he says this is fantastic and he creates creates Sam's Club Right and Costco was also taken from price club. So both Sam's Club and Costco They would not have said so Sam's Club is Sam Walton. I didn't know that it's part of Walmart. Oh, I didn't even know that Oh, yeah, it's part of Walmart and it was it was completely cloned from price a price club Which was a pretty central to Costco, right? So sole price was an incredible entrepreneur Uh, someone goes to and says you know no one has had more impact on retailing than sole price because sole price Influenced Sam Walton in a major way Any influenced Jim cynical the founder of Costco in a major way. I mean these are the the pillars and then Of these two companies Influenced Amazon right, right? So it's all coming from sole price. So someone told sole price. You know you are like the Father of retailing in the US And actually globally. What do you think of that? He said I wish I'd want a condom That's amazing So so Sam Walton is yeah, but I just want to say that for example some of the things that Costco does Costco pays 50% more than Walmart pays its employees. So the entry level people are making 50% more Okay, hasn't a hasn't hurt their profitability in fact sole prices View was similar to Henry Ford's view that I want the people who work in my stores to be able to shop in my stores Just like Henry Ford said I want my workers to be able to buy my cars, you know that then their cars were Automobiles were for the rich right and Henry Ford said no, I want them for everyone right? So you wanted to drop the price and and uh So I think at at Costco the lowest wage is like 20 bucks an hour You know like when you're starting or whatever and then they have tuition reimbursement all kinds of other things and They get a lot of productivity out of their people yeah because of that you've got these books here and we're sitting in your We're at your house. We're in your library. You've got how many books you think you have in here. This is a thousand books a few thousand a few thousand books I mean just to set the scene so that your office at your computers over there We're surrounded by a cave of books on every topic. So I see I see some business books over here I see investing books you got you just brought a retail book about sole price to founder price club from over there There's science. I think on that well This what does this door go to what is this is like a bedroom? That's a better. Okay, so you live in the library essentially And you nap every day. I think absolutely. Yeah, so we're both nappers I've been I've been so used to napping that if I don't nap my productivity goes down Yeah, and so I actually don't like to work If I'm not productive and and what I find is that even if I You know lay down for half an hour 45 minutes It's I'm reenergized right and I think for the work. I do. I need to be on in yeah, so I can't I actually can't do this work if I'm tired You know, yeah, there's a This athlete kind of McGregor and they asked him about his training schedule and he said you know One of the big mistakes I made is that I was always trying to train all the time I wanted to come to the gym three times four times a day I thought that's how you win and the His coach was basically you're like a light. That's always just dimly flickering Because you never turn off and therefore you can never turn on and be as bright and as effective as you could be And this flickering dim light. It's not doing you any justice So I've used that in my own model of like where's my light right now? And if I need to just shut it down briefly 30 minutes now or whatever it is to come back full brightness That's that's the well Jeff Bezos, you know, he said all decisions important decisions in the morning and He's very particular. He needs a solid eight hours at night, right and he He leaves work at a normal time, right? But he says that they don't do These important decisions in the afternoon, right? It's the first thing in the morning Because he wants the highest energy levels and then in fact what I also try if I find my best work is in the morning I'm curious about your style because I came over to your house once and you were You're very calm you weren't like it didn't seem like you were on the clock. You're moving from one meeting to the next There was not a big bustling team of analysts and junior people and and It didn't seem like you keep a pretty clear calendar Is that intentional do you think that's is that just what you like or is that effective? In the business. I mean if I can find a couple of things to buy in a year In the case of Buffett one thing to buy over five years, right? I'm doing well And so this is not a situation where Having some pack schedule or whatever. I think the thing is that this is a case where you're taking a lot of information But there's not much action, right? And so you're basically trying to improve your metal models You're trying to understand more about the businesses that you already own And I'm going through like you know value investors club and some zero and that sort of thing and just looking at what else is there right and and Sometimes I find a Amazing idea what I went then now then there's a deep dive right and then that might take a while I was reading something interesting so in our first episode we talked about your how you got started you were actually an entrepreneur first and then basically So you said this great thing you go. I realized that as an entrepreneur maybe three to five percent of my brain power was on Strategic decisions really clear thinking coming up with right answer and then 95 percent of my time was blocking and tackling And you're like as an investor, it's great because that 3% becomes 95 percent Yeah, I'm just it's just about clear thinking and making the right strategic move and not I don't have to busy myself But one thing I thought was cool was I read that you took some personality test or you got some analysis done on you that basically Helped you say you know, they sort of told you your temperament is for single-player games What is this I didn't understand what what you did? Yeah, so This was kind of accidental that happened and I think it turned out to be one of those great things that happened in my life is that in 1999 actually I was at a crossroads where It was very clear to me that the business that I had built my IT business I had lost interest in it and I had become a lot more interested in investing And it was a difficult time because I had like a hundred and seventy people in the company Who thought I'm motivated and I can't fake it? You know and so very accidentally I was with these two industrial psychologists and they basically did 360 on me so they had me take a bunch of tests they talked to my Direct reports they talked to my friends Family spouse so on and they built a kind of 360 view of who I was And then they gave me what I called my owners manual and I think everyone should have their owners man like it comes with a Appliance you bought. Yeah, I mean it's it'll be show up. We don't have a owners manual and each one is each one of us is programmed differently so what they said is look the way a Human is his traits likes dislikes and what passions they are that is hard coded at the age of five and that is not going to change from the age of five to the age of 95 Okay, you might try to so you cannot change traits You can try to change behaviors, but you cannot change traits. The traits are between your genetics in the first five years of life Hard coded now the problem most humans have Which I had is we don't know what those traits are What most of us try to do is we do what what they called mirroring we look at what the world considers acceptable And we adapt our behaviors so that we kind of fit in but That can be a big disservice Okay, so So basically what they were able to tell me is they said look You you are a person they said when we look at the company you're running and we look at who you are We don't even know how you can go to how you're functioning. Yeah, we don't know and actually I was in pain I was in a lot of pain and the thing was that I love that business when it was just me And I love the business as it was growing until we got to the first 10 15 people And then as I started growing beyond that my life became and my job description became HR I'm just hurting cats. I'm not a cat harder. Okay, that's not who I am. Okay, so What they said is that that business that you have You need to get rid of it in some way as soon as you can And I was just thinking at that time. This was in March or April of 1999 and I was just thinking of starting for bribe funds, right They looked at it and they said this is perfect for you This is going to work extremely well for you. In fact, one of them invested. He's one of the first investors who came in And I skin in the game And I told him listen, you know, I'm paying you guys two thousand to do this You're giving me a hundred thousand. I really don't want to lose your money They said I don't have any doubts, Mona. She's going to do very well So I don't see any risk here, right and he did extremely right And so they were actually right because now it's been 26 years since I've been running it and haven't gotten bored. So what did your owners manual say? So I said don't like that my owner manual basically said that Well, first of all, they said that I had very high house power, right? And they said that I was one of the smartest guys there come across et cetera, which was great But they said that you are a guy who likes to play single-player games You are not the kind of guy who would be happy being in a soccer team for example Where you're one of the forwards or whatever and your performance depends on the team, right? They say you do They say you seek out games Which are single-player games where you think you have some edge And when you think you have some edge and it's that sort of game You will kill it and actually what I've noticed is like so for example I got banned in Vegas playing blackjack, right? Okay, I got to know this story. I figured out a system which basically beat them Okay Counting cards. What were you doing and actually did it without counting cards, right and and in fact it took the casino Almost a year of watching me so I used to go every like six weeks or something And they played those tapes over and over because the markers that they look for were not there And what we'll talk about that in a second So what I'm saying is that so what are the games I like? I like blackjack. I like bridge. I like investing And even ducksina for example the ducksina foundation that's also a game, right These are that's your philanthropy. Yeah, but they're all mathematical games Even ducksina is a mathematical game because what I'm looking at is input our potratious People think people think I'm doing all this good in the world and all that What they don't understand is I'm a game player Okay, and what I'm trying to do with ducksina is how much money is going in and what's coming out, right? And that's the only thing I'm focused on is what's going on what and what what ended up happening with the Entity like ducksina is you know Warren Buffett wrote me a letter saying that This is the best, right? I mean like he took the time to write the letter like this is the best okay never done that for any philanthropy that he's looked at And the reason is because there's a game player who's not focused on you know name and lights or A bunch of fancy pictures in the annual report. We have no pictures in the annual report and I just think the Berkshire report, right? But it's it's about an honest input through output Singular so what I did is every year that we ran ducksina Well, explain what it is. I don't even know if you take a step back and say, okay, I want to give money away to make the world a better place So the natural second step you would get to with that is I want Very high returns on the money I'm putting out, right? So social returner invested capital Should be extremely high now most nonprofits don't even think this way. They're all heart There's a homeless guy. Let me help the guy, right? They don't really do an analysis of okay, what is going in and what is coming out? So I ran into this model this guy was running in I think in 2006 I ran into it Where he was taking 30 kids who were very very poor in India In in behind and most of these kids were coming from illiterate parents etc. But they are very high IQs And he prepped them for about 10 months And he had them take the IIT entrance exam the IIT that the you know the best Technical institutes in the world and Now the thing about the IITs is that there's about 1.3 million kids Applying for 16,000 seats It's about a 1.3% admit rate, okay, Princeton is about a 5% admit rate. Harvard is about five or six percent This is 1.3% and If you get into the IITs, it's basically free to 10 the government subsidized it so if you're a very poor person And you get into the IITs well now Microsoft will hire you Google will hire you anyone will hire you right and but getting in is expensive because the coaching is expensive So what this guy had done is he had made the coaching free For these very poor kids and now what was happening is you had a family that was making $60 a month let's say and the kid graduates and Google hires him for 120,000 a year Okay, I mean you know the transformation in five years the guy is making 300,000 a year right and so they're just at that And he was spending $800 per kid on the training the person that's home So you spend the $800 and you take a family from $60 a month To $10,000 a month, okay, I mean what's the ROI on that and you're gonna do that for this whole lifetime And you're gonna reset the extended family and all of that it's the ROI is off the charts, right? So when I saw that I said wow, this is the holy grail So I went to the guy and I said I'd like to fund you, right? He said I don't want to scale I do 30 kids. I don't want even 31 kids. I don't want to take outside money. I know that So I'm the shameless cloner So I told him do you mind if I clone your model? He said no, this is a very good thing. I think you should clone it I'll help you in any way I can So I took his model and that's what ducksina is so we we are spending ducksina spends About three or four million dollars a year Just imagine what the output of that is right, you know when when you look at it from each family and then you and we're doing three four million We've been doing for 17 years so basically What we get out of three million dollars a year a lot of other non-profit would not get out of you know 100 million a year, right? so we actually You know have a footprint That is much larger than what it should be in terms of impact right and to take it back It's a math game, right? So basically we we had two or three things that were important and that's how I looked at this The first was the yield so the IITs accept 1.3% of the kids who apply They accept 70% of our kids That's amazing. So now what I'm doing is I have a game which Put two models together. So One day before I die I Won't have $10,000 left Okay, so basically inheritances just don't do much right? I mean my kids already have They're doing well. Yeah. What is your philosophy on that? So Well in general large inheritances are going to do more harm than good and You know basically you don't want a person to be on an IIT trip for their whole life I mean, that's just the worst thing you can do somewhere right and so Buffet has a great quote. He said I want to give my kids enough money for them to do anything they want But not enough to do nothing Okay, so because I I'm investing for a living and we have this kind of compounding going Uh, I'm going to end up with more than I need. I mean basically. I don't need to spend any more than I'm spending I could not increase happiness by spending more so there's no point to spending more. I mean I'm very happy with the With the lifestyle and everything else right so everything else basically needs to get recycled But it needs to get recycled at high returns. So on one hand I have a compounding engine and a network that's growing On the other hand, I have to give it away. So God Google told me that on June 11th, 2054. I'll be leaving planet earth Okay, so You asked AI whatever did you do if you if you if you go to God Google and just say hey, I'm you know 52 years old and tell me when I'm going to die He will tell you Okay, and now that we have the date so you know my birthday is June 12 just to make it poetic. I made it June 11. Okay. Okay, so we have an exact Now number so basically 2054 means I've got like 29 years and changed left right and at any kind of compounding rate. It's a ridiculous amount of You know assets that get built over time, but I want to end on June 10th with $10,000. Okay, so there's one game which is to give it away And the other game is to make it and we need the two curves to be where the giving away becomes Probably in the next few years needs to become very much more dominant. So right like the 3 million a year needs to go to 5 10 15 eventually and so on and so for me you know It's the same as playing blackjack It's just a math game either both math games right and yeah, there are a lot of families getting helped And my investors are happy and so then that's fine. Okay, so what was your blackjack system? I'm skeptical So the the blackjack system it would destroy the casino They would have to either change the game or something, but basically I'll give you I'll give you some pointers of kind of what's going on here There's a there's a cup. There's a publication called BJ21 BJ21.com. Okay, you go to BJ21.com And you give them a hundred bucks They're going to give you a PDF it gives you the odds of every blackjack table in North America Okay, so for example if I go to Uh the win last week is right the win last I guess there's a bunch of different blackjack games single deck double deck six decks Whatever else every single one of those it gives you the odds If you play perfect blackjack and these odds vary depending on how comparative So if I'm going to some you know riverboard in Indiana I'm not going to get the same odds as Vegas. Vegas strip is going more More efficient because it's more comparative So usually the house will end up with something like a point three point four percent all the way to like two percent Edge edge over the over the better Which means every bet you're making if you make a hundred dollar bet every bet you're making you're losing the 50 cents or whatever So there's a casino in Vegas Call the L Cortez and the L Cortez is small casino. So in order to kind of induce people to come they kind of Improve the odds okay still in their favor But the single deck game at the L Cortez has the thinnest house edge of any Blackjack table on the planet. Okay, the house edge is point one eight percent Okay, so if you look at that bj21 You look at all of there. They have the edges of every table This one is a is a lowest right so this is a very thin and and I have a system Which took them a long time to figure out They play single deck blackjack right, but they only deal half the deck right in the shuffle so The reason they deal half the deck is so they they can Just make it difficult for the counters because you may be counting cards the deck becomes very favorable, but then they shuffle right? So you the the high cards at the back, but they never get dealt right so the counters get screwed right so I had a system where it basically relied on the fact that Blackjack occasionally has streaks It has streaks where you may win six or seven or eight hands in a row or you will lose six seven or eight hands in a row and what I did in the betting was that usually when I was losing It was always the minimum bet and one of what I was winning the bets were increasing So with the variance of that what happened is I was able to overcome the point one eight right so I don't want to go more than sure That gives it you know, and what I want to do is when the cameras turn off. I'll explain it to you. Okay great So when you go to next time and you go to all courtelles but but now what happens is so what happened with them? What really confused them which they had never dealt with before is Normally what the counters do is on a brand new shoe. It's a low bit minimum bet. Yeah In my case, there was a brand new shoe. There's a high bet so they said We just shuffled right the whole deck is there There's no odds edge he has on that deck because the entire deck is there right he has a high bet Did they ever figure it out or did they just now they took them so what happened is I'm playing blackjack The general manager who's very friendly to me comes and sits around next to me and tells a dealer stop dealing Okay, so she's in the middle of a hand. She just continued dealing. She says he screams at her Stop dealing now. She should never hurt them Okay, like literally middle of it. She said she said shuffled right We're done. We're not dealing anymore. Then he tells me that mr. Popeye Uh, I like you Okay, I read your book I watch your videos and You have a system that We cannot beat right so I said I told them I said you know You know, I'm not counting cards. He said that's what threw us off He said We know you're not counting cards and we know you'll beat us And so you can come to this casino anytime you want But you cannot sit down at a blackjack table then I'm thinking why would I come here? Okay And so that was it but you know whenever I like I go someplace to talk or something and you know they Introducing me I always tell them listen Just say that I have a lifetime ban in Vegas. Yeah, I mean street cred because I really don't care about everything else on my CV That's really in relevant and that's what's relevant. It's just like if you uh you get into Harvard Wow, that's impressive. Yeah, your Harvard dropout. That's the higher status signal And so you're good at blackjack made money in blackjack. I was banned from a casino. That is the highest status Yeah, so I I mean I took them for like about a hundred and fifty thousand or something and you know This was a very low table limit right the table limit was only two thousand But at two thousand I took them so they said okay, we're done, you know, I love it You've run into all these characters and we've talked about Warren we've talked about Charlie But I want to know about some of the other characters your stories are amazing. I could listen to your stories all day. So Michael Burry one of my favorite movies is The Big Short and Michael Burry is this kind of mysterious character Did you ever well so what you're gonna end up and we finished this conversation You're gonna know that my middle name is for scump. Okay, that's really where we gonna end up. So You know, I always tell people that God loves to me He loves me more than other people and I explain why right In 2008, okay, so the financial crisis is not yet happened. It's like March or April of 2008 right so things are getting topsy turvy right and I was visiting San Jose for some Something I was going to San Jose and I knew Michael Burry had an office in San Jose and I didn't know him But I sent my email saying, you know mr. Burry. I I like you admire you etc. And Would love to visit you. So he was kind of well known. He was not very well known But he was he was like posting on value investors club and things that he was like he was there a little bit and and I liked the way he thought you know and He said oh, yeah, stop by. Okay, so I go to his office in San Jose and there's a few kind of analyst sitting outside It's a very kind of a seems like a very depressing place. Okay, because a few. He's kind of a little dark and there's a few analysts there And then I go into the office And there's huge piles of paper everywhere and he Immediately launches into cds. Okay, and he says look moan. I want to tell you something about something that's going to make you extremely well Okay, and he then downloads to me at one million miles an hour I've never heard of a cds Okay, and he's talking about housing crash and the coming implosion and all this stuff, you know and Housing's never crashed. Okay in the u.s. None of that and 80% 90% what he said went straight all my head. Okay, like he was just he just gave me a full cordum in a half an hour my subhuman intelligence couldn't handle it. Okay, I couldn't and you know, so I come out of the meeting my head is spinning And I say okay, well, that was interesting. Okay, and then you know, of course He rides off into the sunset, right and then the movie comes out, right and then it's exactly like they show in the movie right? That's how he ends, right? So I felt like okay, you know guard who loves me so much Takes me to the epicenter Of the epicenter of what would have been the best place to be right the best teacher to have And the idiot moneys blue it But that's the way it is, you know That's I mean what Where does that rank in terms of like, you know, sort of the the best calls or or you know, foresight in terms of That you've seen in your career was I mean, I think this has happened to me a lot. I mean in the sense that Like I said, you know, we put 98 99% or two hard pile, right? Even now, I think it was right of me to not do anything with it because I couldn't understand it right even after the financial crisis It took me a while to understand the cds's right and all these tranches and how they were like doing all this stuff and all that I mean that took me a while to like really get my arms around that and even after knowing all that I would have been skeptical What making that bet so patch off to him, right? I mean, he figured it out a few people figured it out But it was a very small number of people who figured it out, right? Tell me about the greatest investor From India Who is the greatest investor for India? Well, the greatest investor for India would be Rakesh Ginger Nwala I know I never met Rakesh. I mean, I know his friends Quite well guy actually met him guy actually went to the office and and met him A wonderful guy died relatively young, a few years back But Rakesh was a very interesting kind of split brain in the sense that He'd have like three or four Bloomberg screens in front of him and he had all these Charge and everything going on rapid fire trading going on But on the other hand, he had these two or three stocks that he never touched So he had I mean, I don't know anyone like that Who's who's and he was great at both, but the ones that he never touched I mean, they just went through the roof like there's a company in India called Titan industries and Titan industries does Branded jewellery Branded jewellery basically didn't exist in India, you know, it was all mom and pop yeah And there was a trust deficit, right? So you go to a jewellery in India and India they have like 22 karat gold, right? And you're buying the gold. You don't know whether it's half gold 80% gold or what else going on right? The jeweler knows what you don't, right? The the Titan brand is owned by the Tata's well very high integrity So basically they they were able to take a a sector which had a huge trust efficient deficiency and I mean they I think Titan is still in its infancy, right? And I think Rakesh made a huge huge I mean Rakesh I think compounded at North of 40% a year for several decades. It's unbelievable. And you know, he started with like $10,000 borrowed You know didn't didn't even have that on his own someone lent him the money. What made him great? Was he a brilliant mathematical mind? Was he, you know, because what was the trait that really helped him? I think what so he was a trained CPA India's equivalent CPH added accountant. So he obviously even understood numbers well and Just before he died. So he had figured out That Indigo, which is a low-cost carrier in India, they have like something like 70% market share growing really rapidly It might become the largest airline in the world. I mean they go a lot Thousand planes on hot order or something. Okay, so they they they're growing very fast He had done well as an investor in indigo But then he took the next step and he set up a clone of indigo. I mean just think about the the guts you need To set up bloody airline Okay, from being a passive investor and While he was dying, you know, he was like in bad shape and hospital and all of that and that Airlines up and running and cranking and all of that and been great so If he had lived longer, I think he would have gone Not just as an investor, but also shown That he could be an operator With you say something like if he had lived longer This idea of like runway and how early you start. Yes matters a ton Even Buffett, I think you've said that If had he not been giving away So much money along the way. Well, he'd be the wealthiest guy. Yeah, he'd be the wealthiest guy in the world right now And I guess when you say when when you go talk to people are you just sort of like You know, you should have started 30 years ago. Is that the number one message? What we started our conversation with right I think the important thing is that if they're the young person listening The funny thing is that if you look at the rules For a IRA or a Roth IRA There's no minimum age you could be six months old and I haven't have an IRA right the only rule is that You can only put in wages That you earn and I was just reading the Wall Street Journal. There's some entrepreneur Who's hired his kids who are like four years old and like six years old to do like different things in the business Because he's putting like six thousand seven thousand into their Roth IRAs Which is equal to their W2 earnings right I probably stretching the limits on what you can get away with with the IRS That's beautiful. I mean the thing is that but but even if you're not doing that if you start at 22 I mean, that's the important thing is that when you when you start earning at 22 A small amount saved at 22 is more important than a larger amount stay of the 32 Right because you get started earlier. Right. So it's really important to have the whole spend less than you earn And put it into Berkshire. Set it and forget it. Right. Uh, yeah because then then if you start at 22 and you're 22 today You're gonna live over 100 right, you know, you're gonna go to 100 and 110 by the time you know, we got all the advances taking place That's a 90 year runway. I mean a 90 year runway is something I mean if you're talking about a even a 10% return Uh, we are only going to look at doubles, right? So every seven years that's two to the power of 13 Two to power ten is a thousand That's two thousand two that's eight thousand X Okay, the first ten thousand you invested is that eight million right the second thousand ten thousand is another eight eight million You know, so the thing is it's a mind-blowing amount of money If you start early and so the length of the runway is really important Do you pay attention to the macro because you know, my head starts to spin is interest rates and then there's wars and there's all these different factors That you could pay attention to and there's some people who really pay attention to that do you pay attention to the macro? No, because I can't handicap and I wouldn't know what to do with the information So I always try to keep the bet simple. I need to be able to explain to a 10-year-old and five sentences I'm not going to be able to figure out the macro That's why I couldn't make that CDS bet right, you know It was like so much stuff going on about housing gonna crash. It's gonna happen. That's gonna happen I mean, I just couldn't get my arms around you know and my world everybody's talking about AI Do you think about AI at all? The the problem is I bring nothing to that party And I'm probably going to get my head handed to me if I try to participate It's not in the no-brainer category. It's not something where I have an edge Of course, I do believe that it's transformational But you know, I knew the internet was transformational. We've known electricity is transformational We've known the apps stores transformational, but in investing you can do extremely well Without understanding all these things you go back to John Eriega, you know Don't understand any of these things or even Warren Buffett and you know Apple Apple is in the rear view There's the soul most of it. Yeah, and they might have sold all of it by now, but but basically That was the one and done, but basically yeah, I think that we don't need to Understand flavor of the day We don't need to understand Nvidia. We don't need to understand AI If you understand it move more power to you. That's awesome And if you know how to leverage their understanding into dollars, you can make that's even better But that's not me. So we all have to play to our strengths. Yeah Okay, well, Manish, this is a been incredible part two. I'm happy with it This is I asked you at the beginning. I said is this like one of those Hollywood sequels where the first one was incredible And the second one they just they just did it, but no, I think we did a good job I think the the sequel was if not better at least as good. No, it was fun. I enjoyed it. Well, awesome. Awesome. Thanks for doing it. Okay. Thank you I feel like I could rule the world. I know I could be what I want to I put my all in it like no days. Oh on the road. Let's travel never looking back

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. Exceptional investment opportunities are rare and often appear as anomalies that seem too good to be true, requiring deep focus on a few ideas rather than broad knowledge.
  2. A practical two-part strategy is proposed
  3. Sourcing ideas can be simplified by using curated resources like the Value Investors Club to find potential anomalies, after which one must conduct independent, thorough research within their circle of competence.

Summary:

The core argument is that turning a significant sum like $10,000 into $1,000,000 requires a disciplined, two-pronged approach centered on the rarity of exceptional investments. First, establish a reliable foundation (Plan A) by consistently investing savings into a stable, compounding vehicle like Berkshire Hathaway, treated as an index. This provides steady growth through doubling over time.

Second, actively but patiently search for anomalous, high-conviction opportunities (Plan B). These are rare investments that seem illogical or "too good to be true," where the numbers appear drastically mispriced, as illustrated by the Frontline shipping company example. To find such ideas efficiently, one can use curated sources like the Value Investors Club to screen for potential anomalies instead of manually reviewing vast data.

However, any idea must be rigorously researched independently. The process emphasizes depth over breadth, patience, and the temperament to act decisively on the few extraordinary opportunities that may arise only once every few years, leveraging them to significantly accelerate the path to the financial goal.

FAQs

Use a two-part strategy: Plan A involves dollar-cost averaging into Berkshire Hathaway as a default investment, while Plan B involves actively seeking rare, high-conviction investment anomalies to accelerate returns.

Begin by ensuring you have a stable income, spend less than you earn, and consistently invest your savings. Initially, consider dollar-cost averaging into a reliable investment like Berkshire Hathaway while building knowledge.

Great investments often seem illogical or too good to be true at first glance. They are simple to explain and involve anomalies where the numbers appear disconnected from reality, like extreme undervaluation or misunderstood assets.

Use curated resources like Value Investors Club to read detailed write-ups on potential opportunities. Focus on ideas that grab your interest quickly, then conduct your own thorough research to validate them.

Second-order thinking involves asking 'and then what?' to anticipate longer-term consequences. It means looking beyond immediate outcomes to understand how a situation might evolve, such as supply constraints or market dynamics over time.

Exceptional investment ideas are rare; even Warren Buffett averages about one great idea every five years. Patience allows you to wait for high-conviction opportunities while your default investments grow steadily.

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