Are Trump Voters Feeling Buyer's Remorse? (With Sarah Longwell)

Welcome to Pod Save America. My guest today is an old friend of mine. She actually stole my car literally 25 years ago. She gave it back. It's fine. Without gassing it. Without gassing it. Long story. But today, Sarah Longwell has left the life of crime behind her to become the publisher of The Bulwark. You can find her on excellent podcasts like The Next Level, The Focus Group. Sarah, it's great to see you. Thanks, man. It's great to see you. You are in my office, just so people know. It's very nice. It's a very professional, very nice office here in D.C. And I'm so grateful to be here because I wanted to take stock of this political moment. We're like six months out from the midterms. We're all letting ourselves get excited. But you. Do more focus groups with voters than anyone I know, like several a week. Yes. And I want to ask you about those conversations because we're all sickos who, you know, hoover up the latest polls. But I think you can really learn interesting insights by listening to voters. What a crazy concept. It's almost like they're the people who comprise this democracy of ours. It's almost like they make the decisions. And by the way, if listeners are as obsessed with this stuff as we are and they want to learn more, you should right now pause the podcast and pre-order Sarah's book, How to Eat an Elephant. One voter at a time. You'll learn about Sarah's life, her time in politics, the insight she's gleaned from literally thousands of hours of focus group conversations with voters. And also, if you pre-order it now, what that means is when the New York Times bestseller list comes out, she will be on it. And like Don Jr.'s Triggered 2 or whatever bullshit book is getting bulk ordered by the RNC will get bounced. That's right. So I think this is important. It is important to me that no super PAC is buying. This book to get it on the list, that it is made up of real people in large part because I want people to hear. And sometimes people are like, oh, my God, do I have to listen to voters? And I'm like, yes. Was you doing a JVL impression? I was doing a JVL impression. Yeah. Sarah and the Bulwark team, they're independent pro-democracy media. So are we at Crooked Media. Check out everything the Bulwark is doing. Go to Substack. They have amazing podcasts. They do written content. You should be a subscriber. I've been a subscriber for a long time. So good. Nice of you. I mean, it's great stuff. And by the way, please follow Pod Save America here on YouTube and consider becoming a subscriber to what we're doing here. Go to Crooked.com slash friends because as Sarah knows, subscribing is like literally the best thing you can do for independent media. Advertising is great, but it is not enough. But if you subscribe, you get ad free episodes, get bonus episodes, Pod Save America, deep dives into polling with Dan Pfeiffer. So it's a good deal. Crooked.com slash friends. OK, so Sarah, let's start with what you're hearing about Donald Trump himself on the Focus Group pod. You guys recently talked about it was like Catholic Trump and Harris voters you talked about. It was Trump voters who were angry at him. There was an interesting Iran war pod, like tons of great episodes people should check out. But like, what are the big themes and problems and concerns that kind of keep arising? Yeah. OK, so the easy one is so we ask the same question at the beginning of every group. How do you think things are going in the country? There is only one answer to that question that we are hearing right now. Great. It is bad. Nobody thinks. Things are good, including some of the people who still support Trump. Like, they don't think things are going well. People who are still riding with Trump just tend to have hope that maybe they will start going well at some point because you got to trust the plan, Tommy. You trust the plan. We might get there. But the big thing is just costs, right? Everybody talks about how do you think things are going in the country? People say bad. Gas prices are high. We're suddenly in a war with Iran. You know, I wanted Trump to deport criminals, but he's doing all this other stuff. And it's this pervasive feeling. In fact, we just did a focus group. And I really like this group. It was people who are still approvers of Trump, people who are still rocking with him. That that 32 percent. I've got my bush line. Right. But people who are, let's call it below the bush line, people who are like, I'm still in it with Trump. Surprised I managed to get that by you without you giggling. I did smile. Do you know that I coined that phrase entirely innocently and only until I said it to Tim Miller? The reason I'm laughing is because I was. I was texting with Tim about this today and I asked him for oppo about you and he responded the bush line. Yeah. Well, he they bastardize things that I know purely. You're so innocent compared to him. So but the people who are still riding with Trump who think things are going great, even they think that the state of the country, like the way that we relate to each other is awful. Like they feel like the country is a powder keg. They feel like we're too divided. They're scared about civil war. And so there's this like deep pervading sense or pervasive sense of unease. But the prices are the things you hear because when prices are high, people's anxiety is high and they've been high kind of now for a long time. And so people are starting to crack. And I got to tell you, a year ago, what we would hear from these voters is, OK, like Trump is going to fix it. And like Rome wasn't built in a day, but I think he's going to get there. And like every week you just see the sort of the sliding off. Of the optimism from Trump voters that say, I think things are going to get better. Like they just see things getting worse. It jives with what I've heard from others like folks probably heard of Swing Left. They are a great grassroots organization. They're doing this big canvassing project called Ground Truth where they don't do like a walk list. It's not like the Democratic Party saying like, hey, knock on these Democratic doors. They're knocking on every door and they're trying to have longer conversations. And, you know, issues rise and fall, right? Like the Iran war happens and all of a sudden that spikes in what they're hearing. Right. Right. Number one issue, like lingering pervasive issue is about the integrity of the political system itself. It's about trust. And that ranges from corruption. It's people feeling like politicians lie and they're self-dealing. It's that the system is corrupted or captured by corporate interests. And it's just, you know, it's interesting that they're hearing that you're hearing the same thing like that is like the mood music. Yeah. And I think like to the extent that we now take our signals are also bifurcated and everywhere, but they all come together. They all come together in this thing that we now call vibes. And one of the things I talk about in the book is the rise of the vibes voter. And like the vibes are bad and Trump's vibes are bad. And, you know, it's funny that the way you just said it, which is around corruption and things, a lot of the things about doing the focus groups is you get a lot of specifics into that. It's like, what are people angry about? Well, they're angry that Trump lied and said we weren't going to get into these stupid wars. And now we're at war with Iran. They're upset about Epstein. Epstein comes up a lot. I think a lot of people thought like this isn't a real story. This isn't actually going to matter. But for a lot of the voters, Epstein isn't just about Epstein. It's about the idea that Trump was supposed to be somebody who was going to be transparent. Right. And he was going to put people in his cabinet. There's a secret cabal running everything. But we're going to tell you the truth. We're on your side. And there's a sense of betrayal around that, which is why I always think about the people who are still part of the people who approve of Trump for them. What they have is like they're keeping the faith in Trump that it's going to come. But they're clear that it hasn't come yet. And we're not getting it right now. Interesting. So we both are in the media world now, but like at heart, we're political hacks who especially focus on messaging and how to go after Trump. The messaging that resonates with me, my bias, my prior is around corruption, because I think the corruption bucket gives you the why. Right. It's like it explains why Trump is pushing bad tax policies because his donors want them bad. Foreign policy, crypto, like it can apply to everything. And I think Senator John Ossoff has been messaging this, I think, in a really effective, interesting way. We'll drop in a clip here. How much do you guys know about Jared Kushner? Ivanka's husband. He's on the Saudi payroll for two billion dollars. And now he's leading American diplomacy in the Middle East, apparently while at the very same time asking princes and sheikhs across the Arab world to give him billions more. Can you imagine? Like a normal sitting US ambassador just hitting up Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman for billions of dollars? The rules are for us, not for them. And it's not just Jared getting in on the action. A company owned in part by Eric and Don Jr. has been pitching Gulf kingdoms on its drone interceptors during this war. Never before have we seen so little effort to hide so much corruption. Do you think this is effective messaging, what Ossoff is saying? Is this kind of thing like popping in groups? Yeah, it's and here's the thing about corruption. OK, so I'm going to put a different frame on it, which is. Like I said, people are focused on prices, they're focused on affordability, but you can make everything an economic issue. Corruption especially can be an economic issue, right? It's about a total story you're telling and it's saying he is getting rich while you're getting poor. Everything has to have the contrast to it. You know, I remember I'm talking to people, I'm like. Like, him bad, you good, like, like, let's get like some real basics, right? Trump bad, you good, Republicans bad, damn good, like, yeah, that's right. He break, we fix, it's like get the contrast in there. I am minorly developing an obsession with John Ossoff entirely based on tight shirts and good messaging, yeah, which is funny because that's not for me exactly, but it is. It's for me either, but it's hard not to see it. But man, the calm stuff just has me. swooning, um, and demeanor, the, the, the, the. vibes yeah the way he's doing like all so there's a couple things he's doing one is cadence um where he's holding an audience in his hand and that's the stuff you can't teach um some of it is that that the the handsomeness of it all like the optics of feeling like oh oh you look you look like a person i could see being president um he's got nice young man energy similar to to obama um and and and some others pete budaj has some of that you know nice young man energy which i think works with a lot of the moms uh i think you know there's always a soccer mom or a you know security mom or whatever let's just have the nice young man moms they could be coming out for democrats this time but the thing about ossoff is that he is a natural contrast storyteller he is saying and a lot of people get they worry well look if i if i start talking about corruption people are they don't understand the ins and outs he trusts people to understand where he's going with it and he says have you heard did you know i'm here to give you this information if you haven't been getting it in your bubble it's so good it's like it's so simple it's like an old leno bit yes it's like do you hear about this one you read this one yeah um and so i am finding him from a an optics cadence and message uh discipline standpoint to be doing the thing that i've been feeling pretty desperate for politicians to do which is find a way to rhetorically get your arms around the chaos and people get distracted it feels like it's so much and the voters feel like it's too much but he's like no i'm gonna focus your attention on these things and they they provide the contrast not just him versus trump but the way in which he's approaching issues versus uh the corruption of trump and corruption trump's getting richer you're getting poorer like that's the contrast yeah maria bartiroma saying congrats don and eric on your drone contract from the pentagon or whatever um i don't know if you know this but hunter biden uh had a painting yeah right yeah i had a kind of charisma um i want to talk about how democrats should chip away at this trump coalition from 2024 and kind of build their own big motley anti-trump coalition um you and your co-hosts on the next level had a spirited debate about tucker carlson and his turn from trump and denunciation of trump uh let's listen to tucker talking about that you and i and everyone else who supported him you wrote speeches for him i campaigned for him i mean we're implicated in this for sure yes it's not enough to say well i changed my mind or like oh this is bad i'm out it's like in very small ways but in real ways you and me and millions of people like us are the reason this is happening right now yes so i do think it's like a moment to wrestle with our own consciences you know we'll be tormented by it for a long time i will be and and i want to say i'm sorry for misleading people in it was unintentional that's all i'll say you you and jbl um and tim you know i think you guys had different takes on how to uh respond to tucker what you made of tucker i'll let you talk about that but i think i sort of landed in the middle ground listening to you guys like yes you know tucker is someone i think we should be skeptical of because he's sort of in the media political business um it was knowable and there's evidence that he did know that trump was a charlatan but i do think he was sincerely disappointed and angry that went full neocon and like invaded venezuela and now is at war with iran a lot of it is undergirded by this um anger at the israeli government and bb and yahoo that can be anti-anti-semitism and we have to watch that um but i'm curious like how do you think democrats use these comments because it's him it's alex jones it's candace owens not like lib fan favorites usually but saying things that are potentially helpful to us yeah i mean this i think this ends up being like kind of an academic debate as opposed to a because as a practical matter use the shit out of all of it right like amplify the fractures in their coalition like again just with the framework of him good they bad like you want them to fall apart you want to hold your side together like and i think that though people get wrapped up a little bit in whether you have to sort of welcome people into the tent this is a phrase where people decide who's in the coalition and who's out of the coalition is there a gate somewhere well there's this has been a big debate about this and i think it's a big debate about big conversation lately right i mean i know you guys have also talked about hasan piker who's a more leftist or twitch streamer who said some offensive things about israel or a bunch of other topics and and that's been part of this question too and like i don't know how do you think about that how do you how do we define whether there are gates yeah i mean i think look there's sort of like is something somebody says bad objectively right so i think i think talker carlson is a malign actor i think he is a liar i think the reason that he has decided to take on trump on isn't because he's got super sincerely held beliefs or maybe he does as part of his worldview but also he was specifically brought into the white house multiple times i think tried to talk trump out of iran trump went against him now tucker's going against him they're all falling apart but like tucker is not a good person uh in in my opinion like i think he has been a malign actor on our politics and i think he does overall more damage that doesn't mean that tucker carlson doesn't have an audience and doesn't play a role in helping people get out of the country to sort of fracture that coalition and so sometimes amplifying his disagreements he is a particular kind of messenger for people but that's like a utility it's not hey let's have them in the coalition um and because there is no because they're not part of they don't want to be part of the but also because there is no gatekeeping around the coalition right like there's nobody who decides really i mean the dnc can decide who speaks at a who gets a platform but like uh and my argument with tim around piker was i felt like tim and tim knows this i don't want to like speak out of school because he's not here to defund him but i felt like he was kind of downplaying some of the toxicity of the things that piker was saying and more than that i just cared about on our platform i didn't want it to sound like we didn't have a clear sense of who this guy is and what he is saying and what he talks about but like if that guy says i like john ossoff because i agree with his views on this well i'm like okay um that's a good point i think that's a good point i think that's and so i just this idea of people being gatekeepers on this stuff but i do think we should all as moral actors be gatekeepers about what is right and what is wrong and so for me if my lines are liberal versus illiberal then when people are using violent rhetoric if they side with terrorists or want to you know um pump up terrorists uh or celebrate them in ways or uh the chinese communist government or putin's annexation of crimea you know or that you know 9-11 happening uh was a what was it america deserved 9-11 and people are like these are out of context and then i go and watch the context and i'm like they're not out of context you just you have an explanation for why you think these things to be true okay well that's an academic debate or an intellectual debate and we can have that debate i'm just telling you i think those things are wrong and i think as a moral line um i think that they're not good but that doesn't mean um but the idea that like podcasters can't talk to each other or people can't debate ideas like so you're not into the deplatforming because that was very like 2018 through 2020 right it's like all the scolding of people who went on joe rogan or like scolding of barstool sports or things but people conflate the idea of saying i think that person's ideas are bad or i i object to what that person's saying like i don't think stealing stuff from stores is an act of righteous uh courage against corporations like i think that is i think that's basically you've decided okay well we're just going to opt out of having a society and laws um and to me those are illiberal things and i'm trying to part of the reason i objected to donald trump was the illiberalism of donald trump the violent rhetoric of donald trump um now son piker's like a streamer who most of the country doesn't know about well yeah he's not president maybe he's president you maybe like um a less discussed maybe more complicated more interesting case is marjorie taylor green yeah okay who has voted in some bad ways some said some noxious things that's held some terrible views but i gotta say i listened to her i've been listening to her pretty closely for the better part of a year talk about her opposition to the war in iran um some of the things she said about the war in venezuela i think she's been saying about gaza and it just it strikes me as totally sincere and now maybe it's all a political game that is setting up a run for the presidency in 2028 whatever we'll find out but it was interesting i was talking to ilhan omar a couple weeks ago about this um and whether you know she had reached out to um uh marjorie taylor green and it was interesting to hear like ilhan omar who's taken more attacks who's been treated more viciously by mtg and a lot of republicans showed such grace and was like yeah we should you know give her a hug welcome her to the coalition i thought it was interesting to hear that from her that she was thinking like that yeah and i think look i think grace is good um i also and i think um part of what's happening though is like they're finding common ground right like they share their their feelings about israel i think are like both sincerely held and uh are maybe closer to each other than marjorie taylor greens are too many in her own party right um and uh and that might be true but i think it's a good thing that they're finding common ground and i think it's a good thing true of ilhan omar and some of the members of her own party and so if they can they find that common ground and so but like that might not be true true if they didn't have, like, an issue that was binding them together that they both care passionately about. And that is, I think that increased skepticism of Israel is totally warranted in this moment. I think that increased skepticism of the American government is quite warranted in this moment. But, like, that wouldn't necessarily bind me together with somebody. That wouldn't be, like, the glue that holds us together. But I think that we have, and have had now for a while, a fracturing of the old way of politics orienting the parties. And so, as these issues shift, and there's these huge changes in the way people are thinking about different things, Israel being one of them, you're going to start to see sort of the strange bedfellows. But politics is always like that, right? Politics finds strange bedfellows. And I think that is fine. Again, this is where — I think there's a difference. And this is when you say, I carry you. Like, we're together in this. And this is why the question of, do politicians go on, like, these more really incendiary podcasters, people who are more sort of shock jock politics? It's like, okay, you've got two, there's two sides of that coin. There's the side that's trying to reach audience. And so you need to go every, do everything, everywhere, all at once. You got to be going, finding all the right people. And so, I think that's when you say, I carry you. It's going into uncomfortable places, having new conversations. You also have the judgment to know that for some people, you will end up owning some of their baggage and some of the worst things that they said, if you're not willing to press them on it or engage in it, right? And so, that is the thing with Marjorie Taylor Greene is like, I think that she got into Congress and thought maybe it was going to be easier for her to just love Trump enough to get things done, and then that didn't happen. And now, maybe she's going to be able to do it. Maybe she's mad she didn't have enough influence or whatever. She's looking for influence in other ways. I just don't know that I think, I'm not going to be like, boy, I really want to run, hang out with Marjorie Taylor Greene. But JBL does. I'd love to work out with her, maybe do a little CrossFit. No, it's just an interesting conversation, just sort of like thinking about how Democrats offer grace, whether the amount, number of hoops we make you jump through to kind of like get to be treated as sincere versus Trump, who's like, oh, you like Trump? Oh, you called me Hitler back in the day? You're VP now, J.D. Vance. You know what I mean? Like, oh, Bobby, Kennedy, you like Trump now? You hate these vaccines? Fuck it. I hate vaccines, too. Come on in. But that's bad, right? It was a brittle coalition, ultimately, right? We ultimately don't think it's good as an objective matter that J.D. Vance specifically, who did say Trump was Hitler, then was like, please, Mr. Trump, let me be all your things, all for you. I just love you. I hope you hear kerbals. I will do what you need. Yeah, it's a joke. But so I guess there's the part of me that is, again. Every successful political coalition that has ever existed has involved, like, especially at really fractious times, has involved lots of strange bedfellows, has involved lots of weird coalitions. So I think you want your coalition to be as big as possible. And I don't think we can or like we can't like police who everybody talks to. Like what you want out of your political leadership is you want somebody who's so good up here. This is why what I was objecting to is the idea that you have to go on someone's podcast. To reach their audience. My point is a bigger point that's much beyond like a particular person. It is John Ossoff is really good. He will make me and Hassan Piker be like, I support that guy. Not because he comes to us to like reach our audience. I think we've gotten a little too obsessed with the these micro conversations around Joe Rogan of the left or podcasters in general. Like, actually, it's about the candidates. It's the candidates. Can they show leadership? And can we find ways to say I can support that person? And can they appeal to a really large coalition for a variety of reasons? And you want it to be because they're leaning into the thing like the good things, the things that were like, yes, I find goodness in this person. A lot of people tag into them. Not, hey, I hate the same people you do. Right. Yes, for sure. We want unifying messages, especially on our side. Let me just ask you a couple more things about Iran, because I can imagine like a half dozen ways that this is bad for Trump politically. There's gas prices are up. People are sick of wars in the Middle East. Generally, the price tag of the war itself is huge, like 30 billion, 40 billion dollars already has been burned. Then there's the fact that Trump lied and he said he would not go to war in the Middle East. What what are you hearing, though, from voters who are expressing frustration about the war, especially the Trump supporters you guys have talked to who've who've spoken out? Yeah, I would say the main thing is people thought and this was always. My take on it was Trump could get away with it if it was a really short period of time, because if if it was kind of an in and out, like the first Iran bombing was 12 day war. It was like it's like voters. But by the time it's happened, it's like it's already buy it with the voters and they're back to carrying just about costs. The longer this goes on, you've got two things. You've got the impacts here at home, which is really around gas prices, but ultimately is going to be all things getting more expensive, which on top of the tariffs. And this is the thing about something. Like the Iran war voters know what caused it. Voters know that tariffs cause the price increases and they know that the war in Iran is causing gas and gas price increases. OK, when they know where it came from, that's the first like bucket of the problem. Then you get to the second bucket of the problem, which is you said no more of this stuff. Like you want to go in and do a smash and grab job like Venezuela or whatever. And like, I don't have to feel it fine. You end up in a prolonged thing where now I'm listening to you be like, hey, Vietnam was 18 years ago. What are you guys complaining about? Crazy comment, by the way. Yeah. Like and then they're like, wait a minute, because this is where Trump is boxed in on this. And this is going back to Marjorie Taylor Greene and Tucker Carlson. The thing about them is that they are creating there's there's sort of there's a fracture in the Republican Party right now. There's the America first wing. Right. Which is, no, we're not going to do wars because we're going to focus on people here at home. Then there's the MAGA establishment. And that is the Rubio. And that is Trump. And and so America firsters are like. You are not helping the American people. You are lying. You're not doing what you said. And there is a real part of his coalition that feels betrayed because Trump. And again, this is when I say everything is an economic issue. It's like we hired you to do one thing, man. Maybe two. Maybe we wanted you to also secure the border. But like it was about prices and you're not doing it. And so literally everything you're doing that is not that makes us mad. Yeah. You hear this from Nick. What do you hear? You hear this from very vocal people. Nick Fuentes, Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, a lot of people. Again, a lot of flawed messengers there. But they're they have audience. You mentioned Epstein a minute ago. So the Epstein files saga. It was long, but it feels like a lifetime ago at this point. But you're how much does the mishandling of Epstein kind of linger with voters who are angry with him? And how how does it manifest? Yeah. So the main thing, again, is it goes to a lot of Trump. Trump's voters believed that the central promise of Trump of Trump. So I think there's the people who these are the more casual voters who are just like Trump's a business guy. He's going to lower prices. But then there's the voters who are like, no, Trump is going to smash the system. And all of the things you guys have been hiding from us, the deep state. Talk a lot about this in the book, the grammar of hidden knowledge, the idea that there are big structural forces keeping information from regular people and meant to keep people down. Trump was going to disrupt all that. Right. When you don't get the Epstein files. And for whatever reason, it's funny. If you go back, Kash Patel promised the Epstein files. Bondi promised the Epstein files. Trump didn't really. Trump barely. He's like, yeah, we'll look at that. J.D. Vance promised the Epstein files. This was not what Trump wanted to do. It was not. And Trump is mad now. Now we know why. That he is at the center of it. But they feel like it disrupts the central promise of his, which is that I was going to be your guy who's going to show you everything and be transparent. And so they just and they basically have started to be like, probably, yeah, he's in them, you know, and it's like. We know he's in them now. And so I do think there's the people who have either decided that matters to them because it is disrupted. So much of this is cumulative. It's not just the Epstein files. It's like, well, I didn't get the Epstein files and I don't get lower prices. And people are basically like, I guess I get a secure border and like bad stuff's happening to trans people. Like, that's the only thing. He's mean to my enemies. That is the only thing that they feel like is going right for Trump and the rest of it they're not getting. And people. People are like, they'll generate those kind of reach for the trans stuff is something that they're glad about. Like, that's not driving their votes. That's not the essential thing pushing most people. Yeah. And the other interesting thing about Epstein that I was I think you guys talked about this on one of your focus group episodes was being into conspiracy theories used to be a thing that maybe people were embarrassed about. Now they're like, oh, I'm a big conspiracy theory person. It's like they're proud. And I don't maybe they all just feel vindicated by the Epstein thing because like. You and on was just kind of aiming at the wrong target in hindsight. But it's interesting. What did one guy say? He was like, how does an how does a conspiracy theory go like turn into a fact? And it's like, just give it time. But what is amazing is it is you used to hear people start their sentences with I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but and you were always kind of like, OK, well, I'm waiting to hear the conspiracy landing time. But now they're like, I'm a big conspiracy theorist. And let me tell you what I think about Erica Kirk's. Like the bodies buried in her basement, you know, I mean, the Candace Owens of it all the extent. to which the conspiracy i mean used to be like go to the grocery store and there'd be like bat boy kill seven or whatever stuff we used to see and america's always had a strain of you know there's a second gunman on the grass you know and whatever america they like it it's fun now and and the way that people own it now shows you how much people are leaning into this as a way of politics as entertainment um the characters that they watch and this is something that the right does in some ways to its benefit and to its detriment which is that they are creating an ecosystem of like maga soap opera stars yes they're all fighting will summer oh i know thank god for will because i wouldn't know what the hell was going on like who's mad at who and who did what in the ballroom at tp usa event anyway yeah there's a lot of like minor celebrities i mean will summer's constantly saying like well so and so and i'm like i'm sorry who is that who's like you know the girl who threw up in the plant at the mar-a-lago and i'm like i don't know this story um and so the conspiracy stuff uh is and and again you hear it with people saying well i trust the plan you know i whatever trump's doing i trust the plan i mean it's sort of like it's it's all the way from deep q anon stuff that can be pernicious and kind of dangerous and lead somebody to show up at a pizza shop with a gun all the way over to bravo doesn't have a new series now so i'm like really into what's happening with erica that's so true and the other thing i mean like i i having worked in government i've just found that like big government conspiracies are unlikely because when you have a bunch of people read into something the odds of it remaining a secret are very low and the government is tends to be incompetent at scale i was just gonna say like you think the government can't figure out how to solve a bunch of these problems but you think they know how to cover up the moon landing yeah exactly they fake that stuff but you can totally see the appeal of it which is like simple answers to why the world can feel chaotic and scary and why bad things happen to good people right like oh it's because of that this is why you know um i tend to still be despite all of the the chaos we see really like firmly pro-american voter um because in some ways they are being poisoned every day um and they're being lied to by their government every single day um i think that whether it's epstein whether it's the way that trump has talked about war on iran like we are both being lied to and the only way we're getting information is on his like janky social media feed and like that's how things are coming is privately owned like i i have a hard time blaming the american people who for a long time are like but but he's the president he certainly wouldn't lie about all of this stuff or and i just um and they're trying to parse this new information which is a nightmare um and and there's conflict merchants everywhere telling them who to hate and how to hate and you know ginning people up and they're like oh my god and so i just i feel like um i feel like people when that's why i like the focus groups they're actually much nicer in person than actually the way when people fight with you on the internet and they're just like screaming things at you um you know people in the groups they're really wrestling with stuff they're just coming away with some wild conclusions um but you can see how they get there if you listen to them based on the world that we live in totally and the algorithms they're getting forced into a couple quick issue things i'm just wondering if you're hearing about um look i'm skeptical that a midterm is going to be one on like policy per se but there are some policy areas that are popping first of all there's ai so there's some districts politico had a good write-up on this the other day where um fights over ai data centers are really um they're big deals in certain communities they don't want them there or do you want them there um and then there's also just sort of like anger from the left and the right at big tech at the tech oligarchs and it's like you it's the kind of thing where you could listen i could read you a sentence and it could be bernie sanders or it could be steve bannon right and it's like verbatim the same language how much are you hearing about ai big tech like in your groups so tons of ai not nearly enough about big tech and let me so though i was actually um when i was doing the focus groups specifically on the races for mikey shirel abigail spanberger in both those races uh the ai data centers were a huge issue it came up all the time because people know how much water they're using right they know it that they're raising their energy prices again it's an economic issue for them they're like they're like hey it's getting more expensive for me and both of them made them parts of their campaigns like they were addressing it because it's clearly something they're hearing from voters all the time and this is but on the other thing on the tech oligarchs and this is also talked about this in the book and i need you to do me a favor and i'm in okay go tell all your democratic friends that they keep doing this thing where they're like big corporations they're the bad guys i'm like can you guys just like like okay i'm not here to talk you out of it don't say could you please just really focus on the big tech oligarchs sure because they are both uh becoming outrageously wealthy at the expense of the health both mental and physical of the american people two of our dominant human emotions fear and anger and they are algorithmically for their own profit and to keep us on those things they are making us want to hate each other they are the poisoners in many cases or they're the the platforms that deliver the poison and try and keep you there and like elon musk should be an enemy that we name yeah peter teal should be an enemy that we name and you know what it's not just that these these guys walked in to help trump because they knew he didn't care about people he doesn't care about their health and well-being and he was going to help them be profitable he's going to let them raid our data like these we are not talking enough about the tech oligarchs as a specific element of the problem you just say big nameless faceless corporation fine you know what most americans work for corporations and so the tech oligarchs though they are bleeding us and and and look i think there's lots of promise for ai too and there's lots of downsides i'm not just like reflexively against it but we do need to sort of balance our humanity here and i think that um these guys are not they they there's a reason elon musk talks about immigration all the time he wants to make sure that we think immigrants are the problem and not the tech oligarchs like they are playing a distraction game and i do think people need to so if you could just tell your friends who we're talking about i'll tell them the big thing hey listen up well would you include mark zuckerberg what about google tim cook over at apple i mean i look i fundamentally agree with you um i think that the more specificity in messaging the better for a whole host of reasons but in part it's easier to like visualize the enemy when you name it um i'm with you though uh my frustration with the ai industry generally is like we watched all these tech barons create social media and tell us it was going to bring the world together and fix all our problems and it created a massive number of problems and then you have a bunch of the same people kind of running it back and then you have a bunch of the same people kind of running it back and then you have a bunch of the same people kind of running it back and then you have a bunch of and now doing the ai thing and it's it goes from elon to mark zuckerberg over at facebook and then sam altman who is you know running y combinator for a long time and incubating a lot of these companies and it just seems like there's no lessons learned in fact they they care even less about being perceived as good guys they're just like rapacious capitalists who want it all okay and so as somebody who doesn't necessarily discount people just because of rapacious capitalism uh i would say uh you know my favorite description of the board because people are like you're the capitalist wing of antifa so good it's good um but i i think that for me a lot of it is um and that's why look there are i believe in innovation and i believe in trying to solve big intractable problems and i think technology can be a big part of that what you do want is for it to not live in a place of nihilism like you want these guys are becoming extraordinarily powerful extraordinarily powerful in our politics in ways i mean this is why i think the specificity of an elon musk like elon musk is somebody who i think you can look at and say this person is doing an enormous amount of damage and doing it on purpose i don't think every tech oligarch is like that and i think that you you know we should probably uh be careful about not sort of lumping in everybody together because i think there are people who are like actually there are responsible ways to do this and like what are the ways that you could regulate this and um but those people are becoming fewer and further between and one of the reasons that i think is really important is that there's a lot of people who are like that so many people capitulated to trump including zuckerberg including um washington post uh bezos um elon whatever is because they were like oh this guy will just do what we want and i'm not here for the social good i'm here to get what i want and look again it doesn't all have to be social good but it does have to be with like i don't know some sense of responsibility to uh the health of the country and elon is happy happy to be a comma trillionaire at the end of the year at the expense of us destroying each other absolutely destroying anything in his way um maha uh the rfk jr obviously he like exploded into the consciousness into popularity by demagoguing vaccines primarily the covid pandemic supercharged everything that he was doing but there was a part of maha that is totally reasonable right it's like healthier foods uh less processed foods fewer chemicals in what we're eating you know like thinking more about what we're feeding kids, all of that is eminently reasonable. And I have tons of friends, I'm sure you do, too, who were like Maha curious and were like, well, what's what? Why are you critical of this RFK guy? What is what's wrong with any of this? Right. It becomes a complicated conversation. But it was always obvious that as a political matter and as a political coalition, there was going to be tension between sincere Maha and Trump's pro-corporation deregulation agenda, getting rid of the EPA, things like that. I mean, you saw this explode recently where they gave this sweetheart legal deal to the folks who make Roundup, which is this big weed killer that a lot of Maha folks absolutely hate because they think it's like the cancer. Are you hearing anything about Maha these days? Like, is there anger or opportunity for Democrats? I mean, I heard a lot about Maha going into the election. I mean, the number of it's not just women, but it was a lot of women who were like, I want red dyes out of food. Like they had these. Very specific issues that I was like, and I'm a parent, but I was like, I haven't been following this one. I haven't thought about the red dye either. But look, there are a bunch of things. I don't know if you feel this way. There are a bunch of things as you become a parent that are happening with kids. You're like, I don't know. It wasn't like this before. Nobody had all these nut allergies. Right. Or like there wasn't. You didn't know tons of kids who are autistic or like there's like all these things that feel new. Things that feel new. Right. And so you're like, where is this coming from? Right. Why is this? Why is this happening? And I think for parents who have autistic children who feel like they don't know exactly why, there's a lot of people who are like, OK, well, maybe he's going to get to the bottom of some of this. And actually, I think it's I'm not sure if I think it's less about what you just outlined. It's a little bit more like he's basically a crank who is now, you know, is like, well, we're getting rid of vaccines everywhere and we're cutting all this medical research. And I what I hear about Maha when I do hear about it is like, oh, I was excited for RFK, but like they haven't really gotten anywhere on like X, Y or Z, whatever the bespoke issue was that they were interested in doing it. And in fact, there was a spate of time when they came out, there was a lot of people who were upset about the idea of like it was Tylenol causing autism in part because mothers felt like they were being blamed. Like the idea. Oh, God, they took Tylenol. This is the only thing you can take when you're pregnant for pain relief and to suddenly take that away from women and then say, and by the way, you're at fault if your children has a medical problem because you took that. That is so cruel. And if you don't think that those women haven't figured out how to read 11 peer reviewed studies on these things like they have. And so I think that there was there was some real frustration about that. Now, it doesn't come up as much, I think, in part because I actually think that the amount of damage being done, especially on the I don't know if you saw this the other day, but they have found an MMR, a vaccine that is showing tremendous signs of adding longevity to the lives of people with pancreatic cancer. Extraordinary development. Extraordinary medical breakthrough. You think we've been spending more money on MRNA vaccines these days or not? And so like and I think what's unfortunate is that unlike Trump's tariffs and unlike the war in Iran, Americans feel acute. Pain from those things, the cutting of scientific research, the gutting of those things, it's kind of thing that takes a decade to show up. And it's also in discoveries not made and therefore much harder to figure out. And so I you don't hear as much of that as directly, although it's there, but it's much more focused on prices. But I I just know that we are paying we're paying a lot and it's just we're going to we're going to learn about it down the road. Yeah, bills come and do later. I have a couple more things and I'll get the hell out of your office. So we've been talking about the midterms. Gallup just released a new polling this week about approval of Congress. They ask people, do you approve or disapprove of Congress? The institution percent 10 percent approved. Yeah. Eighty six percent disapprove. Congrats, guys. You did it. You did it. The all time low is nine percent. The partisan breakdown was 20 percent approval from Republicans, 11 percent from independents, three percent from Democrats, which is not surprising. It's a Republican Congress. Now, for contact, Congress's approval rating has been mostly underwhelming. Since 1974, the average is 28 percent approved, 65 percent disapprove, which is bad. But, you know, 10 percent is terrible. Does that help Democrats that people like hate the institution? We maybe have more challengers. How do you think about that? Yeah. Congress is funny because it's weird to get to such a low approval rating when you're not doing anything. Literally nothing. And so I'm actually I'm like, people are mad that they're not doing anything. And especially. Especially on the Democratic side. Here's what I do know. I know the Democratic voters are so frustrated with their leadership. I mean, they are mad. They're like down with the gerontocracy. And if you came, Jeffrey's more Schumer, don't start going toe to toe with Trump. And they are not satisfied by the answer of we're shut out from political power. They're like, I don't know. You're up there. Can you go do something like they want to see reflected back to them? This I keep kind of rejecting this fight that we have on Twitter about the Democratic Party need to be more. Moderate. Does it need to be more progressive? Like all the voters really want is for it to be more aggressive. They could sort of take or leave which side of the ideological spectrum you're on. As long as you are going in there and reflecting the anger and upsetness that they feel at what Trump is doing. And when you're not doing that, they are mad, which is, I think, where you're getting sort of those Democratic numbers. And I think, look, so much of this is just. You gave me a body of the government. And I think things are going terribly. Terribly in the country. And so I want to tell you that I think they're doing a terrible job because the country feels bad. So I don't know that I interest in terms of how it affects the midterms. People blame the party in power. I mean, this is the only reason that I think Democrats can't pick up the kind of seats that they picked up in 2018 is because there's not enough seats available. Like there's just because it's so close right now. They can't pick up 40 seats, but like they can certainly take control in 40 seats. We'd have to be winning like Trump plus 12 districts. Yeah. And I think like, look, you can get a wave where you are picking up Trump plus seven districts, Trump plus eight. I mean, that wave would have to be so big. But you know what? I'm not discounting it in part because. Look, Democrats are extraordinarily motivated and Republicans are sucking wind. Yes. And that's where the Tucker stuff, I think, helps. That enthusiasm. Depressing that MAGA base. That's right. Like, I love that. Well, one one one counterpoint to this. The New York Times reported that Republicans have a 600. Million dollar advantage in terms of fundraising of like Republican groups over Democratic ones. How much does that worry you? Because I think it's easy after 2024 to be like, we pissed away a billion dollars, didn't move the vote, a goddamn point. Yeah. Who cares anymore? But in midterms, it's a bit of a different story often. So, OK, it doesn't worry me that much in the sense that the voters are given to the candidates. The Democratic candidates like Tallarico and Cooper and Mary Perkins. They're totally like they're putting up huge numbers, like way over their Republican counterparts. And so there's an asymmetry that is on either side where the actual Democratic candidates are out raising their Republican counterparts, whereas the Republican infrastructure and the committees are out raising their Democratic counterparts and the PACs, right? So there's like tons of the big money coming in, whereas I think a lot of the big money on the left is, yeah, feeling scared and scared. People don't want to put. Their names on FEC reports because Trump will go after them like that is a real thing that is happening, which and that's why, look, I don't know how much money is going into C4s or stuff, but like that money might be evening out somewhere. But there is a lot of chilling of civic participation via donation dollars because people are afraid of showing up on Donald Trump's radar. Yeah. And the DOJ is. It worries me from that point of view. And then it worries me, I think, from I don't want to just like. You know, crap on Ken Martin, but I do think that the DNC could stand to up its up its game a little bit. Yeah, I've actually we've been in touch with Ken's team. We're hoping to get him on the show sometime next week to talk about this and the fundraising and some of the concerns, because it is it's a challenging atmosphere. I'm sure it is an absolute slog for him to try to rebuild that place and clear the decks after 2024. But, yeah, I'm anxious like you are. And also, but you're right, the candidate fundraising is better. On the Democratic side. And that's also important because you get more efficient ad rates as a elected official than you do as a party committee or a PAC. So that's something. Yeah. And for people who are like, oh, get money out of politics and stuff. I totally. Yeah, I hear. I hear you. But but but as right now, right, when you have only so many metrics for things like money, especially to candidates, is a good metric for enthusiasm. And so the idea that these Democratic candidates are outperforming on the money side is just a good metric for, I think, enthusiasm, especially in a midterm. And not a presidential. Yes, totally agree. Last question, let's just end with some maybe irresponsible, definitely premature speculation about 2028 on the Republican side. You have a great piece in The Atlantic this week about how groups are the focus groups. Trump voters are talking more and more about Marco Rubio. the archivist, I think that's his only job. And the last about J.D. Vance. Tell us more about that. So this is Marco Rubio is maybe the first candidate I've seen where like a meme seems to be springing to life. And so the meme of Marco Rubio in the chair like this with the new job, whatever the job is, like is he the new coach of the Panthers? Like every garbage job that you can get, it actually, it is a funny joke. But what it is showing people or I think what people are taking away from that is like there is one person in this administration who's not a total clown. Right. Like and so you got to give him all the jobs because he's the only actual serious person. And then that's one piece of it. And then another piece is they're kind of looking around and it's like J.D. Vance, who people still will say is the heir apparent. And like, OK, yeah, you know, like J.D. on the magazine, like I don't really feel it. He is for me in focus groups now. We've been done this long enough to see different candidates rise and fall. He's got total Ron DeSantis vibes from Republican voters. The longer they look at him, the more they're like. And it's like they want to like him or they want to do it. But like he's not lighting anybody up and he's getting himself in a sour spot with those two groups I'm talking about that he thought he was going to be able to stand over both of them and bring them together. And instead he's sitting in the bad spot where Tucker's got this part Marshall over here and and Rubio. I was starting to Marshall the MAGA establishment over here. And so that is just interesting to me. It also doesn't help that Trump walks around his, you know, the White House being like, do you like better J.D. or Marco? You know, every donor at Mar-a-Lago is getting asked who he likes better, Rubio or Vance. Also, like, look, Rubio, I think it's a lot of credit from the base on Venezuela operation because he's seen his owning that one. Yeah. When it comes to Iran, they started a war and Marco Rubio has disappeared. He went to the U.S. UFC fight. Yeah. Well, J.D. Vance went over. Yeah. The fucking Pakistan J.D. Vance like sits on the tarmac for 21 hours in Pakistan, gets humiliated, flies home. J.D. And Marco goes to goes to a UFC fight. But also Marco Rubio like did one press conference where he went up on Capitol Hill and he was like, oh, yeah, we invaded because the Israel the lobby made us do it. And then he walked away and created this huge disaster for everyone involved. And then it's not said a word since he's just divorced himself from this problem. Probably smart politically. I think. And this is so look, I think that those two are an interesting contrast to me. And I just I think for me, one of the reasons I'm so interested in hearing the strange new respect from Trump voters in the focus groups is I think I had long thought that people from the pre-Trump era, Republicans from the pre-Trump era were a nonstarter for voters. But what's interesting is that especially for younger voters, they don't even know Marco Rubio. The Marco Rubio that I was like, oh, this young man, I like him. Right. We'll see what he does. The guy who drank. The water. Yeah, that's why. But, you know, he was like he was going to be the new person he led on immigration reform or whatever. Time magazine. Right. It was like the future. Nobody thinks that like these guys don't know that guy. They just know the guy who's been in the tank for Trump. And so they're sort of meeting him for the first time. People who are like 30 and below. And then for a lot of the other people, there's he's been enough of a lapdog for Trump and transformed himself enough that like I obviously would never vote for him in a million years ever. But. A lot of Trump voters might like they wouldn't Nikki Haley, but he's transformed himself enough. So that was interesting to me. Sucks. I will just say on the Republican side. I think this is another reason I don't give Tucker sort of the genuine thing is like I do think Tucker's thinking about running for president. I think, look, I was talking to someone yesterday sort of in that world. I asked this question. He thought, no, because it's like a lot of work. And also you have to have a genuine thick skin. And Tucker doesn't seem like he's someone who's very pugilistic. But look, I. Yeah, I've long wondered if he he could jump to a primary and do very well on the Republican side. He would immediately have a base of support. Yeah, it would be interesting. Last question on the Democratic side. Does anyone make in your heart flutter? Yeah. So I already mentioned Ossoff and his communication style. Look, I I tend to be I I I I'm from Pennsylvania. People get mad. They're like, no one will ever nominate Josh Shapiro. But like if you follow Pennsylvania politics closely, he is beloved in Pennsylvania. There's just not that many Democrats who have, you know, a 60 percent approval rating. He's going to beat his Democratic challenger. People are like, I'm sorry, is that his Republican challenger? Everybody's like, I'm sorry. Yeah. Who's he even running against? Like, it's a woman. I'm forgetting her name right now. But like, it's a nonstarter. It's not going anywhere. No, he's going to again because he crushed Mastriano. That's right. And she's a well, there's also part of the reason is there's like a now there's like a weird Mastriano right in that people are doing. Yeah, it doesn't matter. Anyway, but Pete, John Ossoff, Shapiro, because he's successful in the biggest swing state, like all three of them are kind of in my zone for people. But like, here's the main reason. And actually, I'm not going to put Josh Shapiro in this. He's kind of like a personal. I, I like him. But I recognize that the Democratic base seems to have some particular feelings about him. It's a matter of how salient Gaza is probably. Right. One of my pet theory. Yes. Well, that is. But what people don't like about him, Stacey Garrity, by the way, Stacey Garrity. Good job. Way to effort that. Thank you. I do have a pet theory that the way that Democrats deal with what is becoming like a I'm not even sure it's as much of a wedge issue because Democratic voters now are pretty. I mean, I can't tell you how many focus groups I do with Dems in these primaries. They all know who a pack is giving money to. It's not just sort of track a pack like people are locked in on this issue. They are mad at Israel. It is shifting quickly among Democratic and independent voters. And so I do think I think that the one of the ways that Democrats could handle this is by having a Jewish candidate who is deeply critical of Israel. J.B. Pritzker fits that bill. Also fits that bill. And Shapiro fits that bill. Rahm erasure. Rahm Emanuel erasure. I don't mean to erase Rahm. I think Rahm's going to I think Rahm's going to inject some interesting energy into the primary. A lot of energy. I do not think that's where voters are going. But to insider. Yeah. And I just think people are looking for a brand. Like not brand brand new, but like someplace we haven't tried before. They're not a long history. And so but the thing is, I'll just say Pete does make my heart go pitter patter because Pete does the thing that I'm desperate for Democrats to do, which is like it's not just going on podcast. And I saw you guys reacting to his thing and I did not think you were nice enough to him. That's dude. The Pete Hive. Boy, if you are like all I said about Pete. Was I think he's the best one of the best communicators out there. He's unbelievably good. You can send him anywhere. Fox News, conservatives, all in pockets, anyone who'll dominate CNBC, crush Joe Kernan. But all I said was I thought that is actually kind of a different skill than being able to go into every community and get votes in every community. Because as we've seen, his numbers with black voters, for example, are like very, very low. And he really needs to work on that. That was it was an observation about data. People take that shit so personally. Yeah. Well, I think part of it is that. And Pete, part of the reason that we take it personally is Pete inspires love and people like they really do. And and he does that kind of for me, where I think that he is this idea of like, I'm going to go to Oklahoma and I'm going to talk to people there. I think that's great, by the way. And the thing is, is that while we tend to get in these Twitter arguments about you go on this podcast or this streamer, he's like, oh, I'm going to actually go go on the sit with people because that's actually the real thing. The rest of this stuff over here is a sideshow to the real voters. And so I'm because. I'm obsessed with listening to voters. I'm obsessed with candidates who care about engaging with voters. This was like young Joe Biden with the arm around people and like being around Trump with his stupid rallies, but like creating good dance party vibes like the Democrat who is going to win, who I do think is going to be somebody who manages to not tip over into saccharine or treacle, but does have a very clear sense of vision, hope, future, how we bring come back together as a country. I do think people are hungry. I think he has it. And so and also has just been like as I think messaging matters more now than ever. And I think he is doing it. And every time I see him give a speech, I kind of like do a lap in the room with my head. Yes. Yeah. It's hard not to just turn into a cheerleader. If he wins that Georgia Senate election, which, you know, knock on wood, he will be vaulted into, you know, top top. And I'll be there. I'll be pushing him. Sarah Longwell, thank you so much for doing this. It's been fascinating to talk to you. I really appreciate it. Yeah. Thanks, Tommy. Good to see you, too. I'll put gas in your car next time. If you want to listen to Pod Save America ad free and get access to exclusive podcasts, go to cricket.com slash friends to subscribe on Supercast, Substack, YouTube or Apple Podcasts. Also, please consider leaving us a review that helps boost this episode and everything we do here at Cricket. Pod Save America is a Cricket Media production. Our producer is Saul Rubin. Our associate producer is Farrah Safari. Austin Fisher is our senior producer. Reid Cherlin is our executive editor. Adrian Hill is our head of news and politics. Jordan Cantor is our sound engineer with audio support from Kyle Seglin and Charlotte Landis. Matt DeGroat is our head of production. Naomi Sengel is our executive assistant. Thanks to our digital team, Elijah Cohn, Haley Jones, Ben Hefcote, Mia Kelman, Carol Pelleveve, David Tolles and Ryan Young. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East. The Writers Guild of America East is a production of Writers Guild of America East. Closed Captioning provided by the Imperial News Network.