Anxiety Level Prediction with Small Data Sets

This is an I Heart podcast guaranteed human football is the ultimate team game on any single play. It takes all 11 guys to execute it successfully. And whether they're pounding the A gap or taking a deep shot, the best teams win in multiple ways. That's why bet 365 is giving fans options all season long with their early bird special cash out availability or early payout bet 365 offers a bunch of different ways to play, whether it's boosted profits before the game or getting paid out when your team goes up big, there's no shortage of exciting options. Plus you can cash out any time. Bet 365 where winning is everything. Gambling problem called 1-800 gambler or 1-800-my reset must be 21 plus in present in a state where bet 365 operates. Please gamble responsibly. Restrictions and terms and conditions apply. Void where prohibited. Download the app today. Welcome to NFL Daily where we want winners. I'm not Mike Singletary. I'm Greg Rosenthal and my guest on our very first picks episode of the season. And for the first time making the picks against the spread this season, it is our friend Nick Shook who's joining me from the Chris Wesley podcast studio. But I'm at home. Are you keeping work clean as everything okay there? Yeah, this is weird. Usually it's from Cleveland. Now I'm in the studio and you're at home. It's a sign of what happens when you move, I guess. But I'm excited to get into these picks. So I apologize for everyone who enjoyed the couple of years we had with Cynthia Freeland. Now you're stuck looking at Shook's bald dome the whole time. Cynthia is amazing. She's got all the numbers. Check out her YouTube with the numbers game. I love Cynthia. Unfortunately, ESPN came in and we merged and some of the ESPN people aren't available to us anymore, but we're still picking winners. And you've got a lot to live up to. Not only is Cynthia, you know, one of the best and the brightest, but she was smart enough to let me win last season. No, we're looking for winners in general. I won 38 and 24 last season, Shook. And what I wanted to establish for everyone, it's a very set show. We do three picks against the spread. Only three, we can bring up some other games at the end if you want just a little extras, but only three count. But we are rooting for each other because like Mike Singletary talked about when Vernon Davis, you know, went to the, he sent Vernon Davis to the locker room. We want winners for our listeners. We're not allowed to gamble, but we want us both to win. So we can pick the same games if we want. We both want to do well. So this is a supportive atmosphere. I hope you're ready for. I'm going to be so supportive, Nick. I'll give you the, the first pick. All right. Well, we're avoiding losers to continue the Mike Singletary thing. Yeah. Can't win with him. Can't do it. All right. So we're going to start here. Can't do it. Can't do it. I want winners. All right. My first winner is going to be the Pittsburgh Steelers facing, looking at minus three and a half over the Atlanta Falcons. And there's new reasons why not only was I already confident in the Steelers going into this game, but now we have news from Falcons practice today that to a song of my lowest showed that he may have aggravated his back. We are still awaiting some word on that. But we already know Michael Pentax isn't involved. That means that you're down to potentially Cooper Rush. The vibes around this situation are not good. Kevin Zafansky was in a pretty bad situation in a quarterback last year with the Browns almost as bad as of right now with the Falcons. The Steelers have the home field advantage. I'm going all Steelers here. I think it's probably a seven to 10 point victory in this game. And I'm excited to see if I'm right for the first time. I was curious if the line would move based off the practice reporting. It hasn't budged at all thus far. Now this was one of the picks I wrote down. And this is something for new listeners and for you who's just joining the show. It's kind of up to us. Do we want to go in together on a game when we feel really strong? Or do we keep them separate just to cover more games for entertainment sake? I think in this case, I might just let you have it, but I do want to agree with you. Can it like the Falcons do anything up front? You know, that's sort of my big question in this game is, is it going to be a total mismatch on both sides of the ball up front? Like that is a great place to start no matter who's at quarterback. The Falcons offensive line on paper has continuity, has some good names. They're they're swapping out the center. But against this Pittsburgh Steelers defensive line, which is loaded, you know, you got Nick Herbig now, Watt and Highsmith all together. Everyone's healthy going into the season. I actually looked at the Falcons gave up the fifth highest quick pressurate in the NFL last year. So even though they have a good reputation, they were not good pass protected. And so you're basically starting off here from the vantage point of like the Falcons aren't going to have any time to throw the ball. I'm not sure that the, you know, Aaron Rodgers offense is going to light up this team. And the Falcons will send a lot of blitzes at them, but they don't have much of a pass rush. And I just feel like the one dominant group in this game should be the Pittsburgh Steelers defense. Yeah. I think if you're looking for a bright side from a Falcons perspective, you probably shouldn't anticipate a lot of targets for Kyle Pits to love them in the preseason. If two doesn't play it's Cooper rush. He's going to need to lean on him because like you just described, they're probably he's probably not going to have a lot of time to throw, which means those downfield routes are not going to develop. And it's going to be rough. Yeah. Could we get Jack Strand in week one? I don't think so. The announced Cooper rush would be the backup. So why would they elevate Jack strand? I doubt it. Obviously a starting quarterback is really important. You guys might know as you hear this, it's not going to change. We're, we're both big on the Steelers. I'm deciding if that's going to be one of my three because that was slotted third for me. The only, the only game I knew I was taking no matter what shook did like I'm, I'm in either way, like we can just go in together was Philadelphia minus four and a half. That was the one line I saw that made me say, huh, just like, oh, so like is Philly home? Did I miss something? Are we saying if this is at a neutral site, these are like two points separating. Like at this point at home field is about two and a half points or whatever. I, I'm just like a little confused. I'm confused. It's not even one of your three picks, but I'm glad it's not just so we can, we can handle more games. But again, I'm rooting for you, shook. I want us both to go three and oh two and one every week. Right. And I looked at this one as almost like you or I'm like, am I, is there going to be pulled from underneath me? What do they know that I don't know? And I think a lot of this comes down to the unpredictability of week one. We have seen some very weird outcomes. I mean, we can even go back to last year and look at the fact that the Raiders beat the Patriots in week one and how the rest of the season played out from there. Weird things happen sometimes. I just don't have a lot of confidence in the commanders as they currently exist. The lack of momentum they're carrying to the regular season with the concerns about their offensive line and how important that is to keeping Jay Daniels upright. I think that this is a very lopsided game like you described. And I think the Eagles at home should win running away. Let's go again. It's week one. So because I'm so confident, maybe something goes wrong in the exact opposite thing happens who knows. I'm glad you pointed that out. Back when I didn't work at the NFL and I had stopped gambling heavily on the NFL well before I moved to work here because it was stressful. But I, you know, initially, I wasn't making a lot of money. I was trying to help pay the rent with that. It was getting aggressive. And it's all proud. It was good. And one of the things, which I think is it true is like that there's more like there's softer lines earlier in the season. And generally, yes, I kind of favor underdogs. I'll take points early when you don't really know about it. But I also think you got to look ahead and try to think of like opportunities, which in this case, I think, and I could be wrong, obviously. But I think in three or four weeks time, if you're replaying this game in Philadelphia, it's week four, Philadelphia hosting Washington is going to be like an eight point spread because we're going to see the shortcomings on the Washington offensive line. We're going to see that Philadelphia is not perfect, certainly offensively, but defensively, they're a wagon. And I think this could be a top five or six team in the NFL versus a bottom five or six team in the NFL. And I could be wrong. But I really don't know what to make about three units in this game. Although one of them, you know, the Eagles offense has the sake one Barclay and Jalen Hertz who both competed at a really high level. But that's one of the units I don't know that one and the two Washington groups. I know what I'm getting out of this Eagles defense. And so I feel really good about this one. This is my favorite one of the week by far. I wrote down a lot of games. I liked this week. I liked about six. So I had to narrow down six to eight. But this was the one I knew was going to be locked in. Let's go with your second picture. This is one where if you're looking at it from a line's perspective, you're thinking, I don't know. That's a pretty big margin. I don't know why you feel so confident in it. It's Jaguars minus eight and a half over the Browns. Oh, okay. They have the home field advanced there. And I just have no confidence in the Browns quarterback situation, the fact that they're rolling with the Sean Watson. This has nothing to do with their offensive line, which they've completely rebuilt in the offseason has nothing to do with the skill players around them. It's the fact that I just don't believe to Sean Watson can move this offense down the field. And I do expect a couple of turnovers in their own territory. A lot of three in outs, a couple of short fields for Trevor Lawrence and company. to get to work and an early opportunity for them to build a big lead that the Browns just won't be able to overcome. And it becomes very lopsided early. So I think this is one of the biggest margins of the entire week. And I'm totally on board with it. Wow. What I like about the Browns doesn't have to do with their quarterback. That's what I don't like about them. And I think that's what's going to matter most in a season opener on the road. Man, you know, you did the thing. You're picking against your own team in week one. I would always get on Cynthia. Like if she went against Detroit, it's bad. It's bad. Mojo. She had like a computer system. So she was like, I'm not the one picking. You know, this feels and you got to be careful. This a little emotional shook that, you know, this team just annoys you so much. You're almost rooting against the Sean Watson or it's an emotional hedge that, you know, either way, either way you win. Because if they win, then you feel good about it. But what if they lose by five? Then you're like, I lost in multiple ways as a fan. Yeah. That's true. In this way. That is true. And you know what? I've had a lot of emotions over the last. What is it now? There's a over the last week and a half. This is not an emotional one. This is solely because of football. And I mean, like Browns fans have come after me because they saw my game score pick on this on the game preview on YouTube 30 to nine. That's what I went with. And they're after me. But you know what? They can't make an argument against it. You're like clay bod. He went through every team's schedule to do his record predictions on our podcast. And I think he had the Browns winning one game or two. Yeah. See, I did this exercise too. And I had some really weird records that I kind of had to go back and adjust. But I think I had the Browns. Maybe I don't hate it or in 13. That so the two big lines of the week and you're right. Week one uncertainty is built in eight and a half for the Browns is the second biggest nine and a half for the chargers over the Cardinals is the biggest. I would take the Cardinals just because I don't want to give away that many points. If I had to choose in this game and I wouldn't this is just the stay away. Yeah. I would take the Jaguars to because I really believe in their offense. And I really believe they're multiple. And I believe that the Browns defense could be a lot worse. All right. My second pick. I'm going bucks plus three and a half. This is one. And I try to do gut reaction like what feels wrong right off the bat. And I just write down the ones. And then I really think about them and try to sort them. And this is just one of the ones where I was like, I'll just take three and a half points. And they they call that, you know, Cynthia would teach me, you know, they call that extra half a point at the hook gets you to do it. You don't want to just write on three. You're more likely to pick something and three and a half. And I'm like, yeah, that hooked me because I just think the Bengals will be absolutely thrilled to get out of here with a win. And this is just a toss up. And so you give me three and a half free points. I'll take it. It this feels like a buzzer beating field goal one way or another. Specifically, I like the bucks past rush, giving this Bengals offensive line, which I think is overrated, trying to work out the new way they're coaching up Joe borough with more under center. A lot has changed there, whereas Todd Bowles and his defense, he's added talent, but they have come out swinging in the last few seasons. I went and checked on it. They've started at least two and a half. And I don't go with the history stuff too much, but it's Todd Bowles, even going back to the Bruce Arian's era, they've started out to know like five or six, three years. I was like, they always start pretty fast. And what do we know about the Bengals? They never start fast until last year where they did win the first couple games, but even that first game, they had 140 yards of offense. So that helped put it over the top. But ultimately, I think the bucks are just a little bit better as a team. It is in Cincinnati to very evenly played, you know, teams in my mind. And so I'll just take free points. Yeah. And you make a really strong argument. I mean, this is the game that I felt was the biggest, just from picking a score perspective, not not against the spread. It was the biggest toss up of all them because I agree going in any direction. And a lot of it is, you don't want to lean too much on history, like you said, but a lot of it is pointing back to history. Like I was doing some prep for another show earlier this week and dove into a research packet. And there's a whole section about how Baker Mayfield just starts hot every year. He's a week one monster. He's got a three and a record, a nine to nothing touchdown interception ratio. He's also three and a versus Joe burrow. He doesn't have Miles Garrett on his side. Any more to intimidate Joe burrow and scare him into being a less than productive quarterback as he, as he was, you know, many times in those Bengals, Browns games. But you think about the slow starts for the Bengals. He kind of tossed out the home field advantage scenario of it. And the continuity of a defensive approach versus an offense, like you said, has kind of tried to retool itself and re, you know, reimagine style going to this year. There's more room for uncertainty and less steady ground solid footing for the Bengals. And there is the Buccaneers. And I honestly think that the most intriguing part of this is what you mentioned as well, which is that pass rush against the Bengals offensive line because what we've known about the Buccaneers is that they've had to blitz to manufacture pressure in recent years. That may not be the case this year, starting with the addition of Ruben Bayon. And it's not just him. So I like that. That goes against what I picked for the game preview section on YouTube. But it's a really good argument. And I can see this going either way. I try to be on emotional about these things. These lines are generally good. You, you go with a gut feelings of like, who's going to win? And then B, just where should the line be? To me, I just think it should be under three. It should, to me, it should be one and a half or two and a half because I think the Bucks are just like just a little bit better. I know, I know a lot of people disagree. Also, Todd Bowles, very difficult to prepare for him. Every offensive coach says that. I think it's an extra hard week one. You just don't know what's going to come. All right. You are on your third pick. You have taken the Steelers minus three and a half. You have taken your Jaguars to beat the Browns eight and a half. Do you have an underdog picked this week or you go in three favorites? No, I have an underdog stashed for a fourth pick. But I feel more confident in this next one, which is not an underdog. I'm going Cowboys minus two and a half over the Giants because how does the NFL's number two offense last year that's returning all of its key contributors is missing in starting left guard for the next four or six weeks? How do they not win by more than two and a half points in New York against the Giants team that we don't know much about? New coach, what's that defense going to look like? There's been a lot of investment in that defense, but we haven't seen the results yet. And I know that this could be a bit of a super bowl scenario for the Giants hosting the Cowboys in prime time to start the season and new coach, new era, young quarterback, all that good stuff. But man, I really like that Cowboys offense with Dak Prescott and the 2000 yard receivers in George Pickens and CD Lam and I just believe that they'll be able to win by at least three points even on the road, even in a prime time setting. I mean, I picked him to win by 15, which is kind of lopsided, but I take this one easily. Chuck gets aggressive and that I like that. I do. I like just putting up big numbers. This was a stay away for me just because there's just so much uncertainty with the Giants. Am I trusting the Cowboys on a week to week basis? Overall, yes. But it's on the road suddenly and I I'm with you. I would take the Cowboys if I had to choose one, but it just wasn't one that that spoke to me as loudly as that sealers one. I feel like we should should just go in together. I'm going to give you my thought process here. You have your three locked in. It sounds like you have just an extra one you want you want to play. Since you took Pittsburgh first, I mean, that's your game and we don't need to fight over a week and agree. I'm going to talk you through my thought process here for my last pick. So I could either go with Pittsburgh, which was either two or three on my list, like it was there the whole time. It was the one that was calling my name, you know? Gray. Yeah, like the sirens and I'm Odysseus, you know, I don't know. Tie me to the mask that I hear Aaron Rogers on like other podcasts talking about conspiracies that I'm screaming like Matt Damon while I take the the Steelers three and a half. I think that was pretty good analogy. It held up. Yeah. The other one in my heart is the Texans and I'm trying not to fall into the trap. And this is why it was fourth of well, I picked them to win the Super Bowl. So it's like I think they're going to be great. So it makes sense to pick them this week. I've tried not to fall in that trap, but I think they just should be favored. It's nothing too crazy. When the line is under two, does it really matter if you're favored by one and a half or you're an underdog by one and a half probably not games not going to come down to one, but it just bothered me that there are underdogs because if you played this team, this game last year in Houston, I'm taking the Texans like in the playoffs, even like at no point last season, maybe maybe when the Texans were struggling, but the bills were up and down, what I say that the bills should be favored in that game. And what about like this off season makes you think that the Texans got significantly worse and the bills got better just feels like Josh Allen getting a few too many points. Then you throw in the head to head where the Texans have won the last couple games in the Dimeco Rines, Joe Brady, Eras. And I know Joe Brady was a coordinator, but it's just I don't like that they're not favored, but I also really respect the bill. So is it one of my favorite three picks? It's not. I'm going to go with the Steelers, but I just want to give it. I'm going to give the people. Well, we try to give people because people aren't living by our rules here. Chuck, you know, they can, they can do two games. They can do four. They want to hear us talk about the games. So it's a strong four, but you're saying I should have just done it in. No, it's just so funny because that was the fourth pick I had stashed away with Texans one and a half. That's good. Okay. And for all the reason that you just listed, but I also like historically, like you'd said, well, if I played this game last year, they did. in Houston. Right. Houston won 23 to 19. Buffalo couldn't do anything offensively. And I take blame for this line because I was one of the crowd that put high expectations on the bills starting with Josh Allen as MVP. And I put him in the AFC championship game, didn't put him in the Super Bowl. I'm a little, you know, I have a little bit of rationale here. And so it's maybe it's my fault that we're injecting this bill's team with so much confidence collectively that the odds makers were like, no, we're going to take them on the road as a one and a half point favorite, which is essentially a toss up. I do think that when you look at the off season, the Texans, I think got better. Yes, they lost Jayden Higgins, but were we overlooking the fact that David Montgomery is in this backfield now? Yep. We saw small glimpses of what this running game could look like in the preseason and it looked pretty darn good. I very much feel confident in the Texans winning this game at home to start the season. So I too was like, what happened here? Why? I don't feel that confident. I mean, to me, it's a, it's a 60, 40, 55, 45 thing. That's still confidence. Right. They're both good teams. And I went and checked when these two teams did play in Houston last October. The Texans were favored by one and they won. So why is it flipped around? Either way, I thought it'd be good for us both to go on Steelers. And for everyone to know, we both agree and we'll be watching these games on Sunday together. We liked the Texans, but they didn't quite crack our top four here. But I wanted our first time together shook to be unified. So we can be holding up each other's jerseys, three in O each at the end of Sunday. Like a jerseys swap? Yeah, it's something like that. Like the days in Vegas, you know? Also kind of like, by the way, just like if you're looking for extra picks, I kind of had a running bit of just like, yeah, little scribbles at the bottom. You know, we see how those do during the season two Broncos. The only reason I didn't take the Broncos, you know, an underdog in Kansas City is because everyone is and it's like, you know, that worries me slightly. It is the chiefs, but how are they not better than the chiefs don't quite get that. And then the Saints getting six and a half points, just a lot of points for the uncertainty that's going on in Detroit. That would have been one, two if I had a long list, just take some free points in week one. So it's a fun toss up for me and it's got a line identical to Buffalo Houston. Jets Titans. Like what happened? Oh, that's the ultimate. If I was ranking stayaways, that's my number one pick. Yeah. No idea. No idea where that's going. Don't enjoy that. I'm going to take the Jets, but I don't feel great about it. To recap, again, the Pittsburgh Steelers are right now NFL Daily's picks show team of record. They both have them favored by three and a half. You have the Jaguars eight and a half point favorites in the Cowboys as two and a half point favorites in New York. As I mentioned, I have the Steelers. I'm taking the Bucks as a three and a half point underdog in Cincinnati. And then my number one pick was the Eagles favored by four and a half. This is going to be fun. Chuck, we're doing it every week. A lot of pressure. They put the records up there, one of the years I struggled, you know, it's tough. When you're struggling, this, you'll start really studying these lines and making sure because you feel a lot different driving home on Sunday night if you go two and one versus one and two. So I hope you take this seriously because people are really valuing your picks. I do. And I'm mentally tough enough to weather that storm. And I also would like to point out that although it wasn't against the spread, I am one of two people who work here who did go 16 to no one week. Let's go. The other one was Colleen Wolf. Same week too. Let's do. Colleen Wolf, in Australia, as we're taping this, she will be back for next Tuesday's show. That'll be part of our first full post week one schedule. Let's hit that music. Eric Roberts behind the glass for this pick show. Yes. The next time you will hear from this will be the three amigos. The three core Sunday night recappers, myself, Jordan Rodriguez and Nick shook this season. We will be recapping week one, all the calls, all the highlights, all the upsets. We will see you then. Football is the ultimate team game. On any single play, it takes all 11 guys to execute it successfully. That's why bet 3 6 5s giving fans options all season long with their early bird special cash out availability or early payout bet 3 6 5 offers a bunch of different ways to play. Whether it's boosted profits before the game or getting paid out when your team goes up big, there's no shortage of exciting options. Plus you can cash out any time bet 3 6 5 where winning is everything gambling problem called 1 800 gambler or 1 800 mi reset must be 21 plus in present in a state where bet 3 6 5 operates. Please gamble responsibly restrictions and terms and conditions apply void where prohibited download the app today. This is an iHeart podcast guaranteed human.