America, Actually: Who Wants Kamala to run again?

Hey, everybody. The team's taking a short break this week, but we've got a great episode from Vox's America, actually, with Estad Herndon. Vice President Kamala Harris is starting to look a lot like someone preparing for another presidential run. She's been touring key Democratic primary states to promote her book and is leading in early polls over names like Gavin Newsom and AOC. So, is Kamala running? And if she is, is this what the Democrats actually want? In this episode, Estad digs into those questions and what a potential Harris campaign could mean for the future of the party. We'll be back with regular episodes on August 17th. Until then, here's Estad. I'm going to let you in on a little political secret, maybe the worst kept secret in national politics. Former Vice President Kamala Harris is considering a comeback and thinking about running for president in 2028. I'm thinking about it. She went on a book tour through important Democratic primary states. She's chatting with Zora Mamdani and she's dialing up pro-Palestinian activists to gauge their level of interest. Most importantly, though, she's leading the polls, beating out big names like California's Gavin Newsom and New York's AOC. But I covered Harris' first two presidential runs in 2019 and also in 2024. So I know that the idea of Harris to candidate is sometimes better than the reality. So I have a question. Does anybody actually want the Kamala Harris come back to happen? I called up Democratic insiders to get their take. The person you're trying to reach is not available. Let's try somebody else. Your call has been forwarded to voicemail. At the tone, please record your message. Oh, you know, a lot of journalism is just voicemails. Oh, I'm getting a call back. Hey, how are you? This Alex? I thought you were my Uber driver trying to get to the airport. I also talked to donors. Everything that happened has left a bad taste and we need a fresh start. And of course, the voters. Absolutely. I think Kamala Harris to run for president again. Kamala Harris, 2028, yay or Yikes. That's this week on America actually. Let's dig in. Now on this show, we like to think about American politics beyond the question of Donald Trump. And yes, that'll be shaped by voters opinions on things like AI regulation or foreign policy. And it'll also be shaped by individuals, aka the people actually running for president in the next election. And while I usually think it's too early to talk about particular candidates, that feels like it's changing right about now. Gavin Newsom has basically declared himself a candidate for the 2028 election. And AOC is the clear choice of the left should she run. But there's much less discussion about the person actually leading the 2028 polling, the former vice president virtually all of the recent press about Harris has actually been about the unease that Democrats feel about the prospect of her mounting another campaign. In fact, some of the stories read like Democrats are downright begging her not to jump into the race. That largely lines up what I've heard from Democrats privately. So I decided to conduct a little experiment. Let's hear the case for Kamala Harris as described by people in her inner circle. And then let's put that case to the test with key groups that will shape her decision and the presidential primary. So I started by reaching out to her spokesperson and got a list of surrogates that they said can provide their perspective. Here's what they said. One, they excused the 2024 campaign as an anomaly. Why do I think Harris lost in 2024? I think Jesus Christ would have lost in 2024 after the assassination attempt. And Kamala Harris had to run a shortened campaign after Joe Biden dropped out the idea that she does not deserve the opportunity to put an infrastructure in place beyond the construct of a hundred and seven days. I think is incredibly unfair. Two, they argued that Harris is a strong candidate. And there are groups of the democratic base, particularly groups of women and black voters who are excited by the prospect of her return. They adore her. They want her back 100%. Now that I've heard the logic of a Harris candidacy, I wanted to get a sense of her decision-making. She's been non-committal when it comes to the prospect of another presidential campaign. So what are the factors that actually go into that decision? I called up Jamal Simmons, her former communications director, who gave me a sense of her decision-making process. Somebody's got to pay for the buses. Somebody's got to pay for those TVS. Who is actually going to come out and support the campaign, work on the campaign, volunteer base? Who's the base of this party? But who's the infrastructure? Simmons said that Harris needs to ask herself two important questions. Number one, are the donors behind you? And number two, are the voters behind you? And so that gave me a helpful framework to think about the next stage of our experiment. Let's talk now that we've heard from the party. What about everybody else? Do voters actually want another dose of Kamala Harris? Let's find out. So we went to a Juneteenth picnic in North Charleston. Now, South Carolina is a crucial state for Democrats running for president. It's one of the first primary states. And it has a highly influential share of black voters. Okay, so I am going to write out a couple signs that give people a sense of what we're doing here. So they know to talk to us. The first is going to say podcast taping, come chat with us, you know, something friendly to bring in the vibes. And then the second one will ask our question, should Kamala Harris want to present it again in 2028? We had our signs, a yes and a no bucket for people to vote. What's up y'all? You want chat with us? Hey, y'all, how are you? Do you want to vote in our poll? Please, pretty good. So here's the deal. It's a little experiment. We got to either vote. Yes, no one tell us why. And so you can go ahead so we can look, we can not look, we can talk to you, you can keep a secret. It's up to you. Okay, so you don't, you're not going to look at my vote. Now I want if you don't want me to. Now let's all look. Hi, so we're going to go ahead. I'll say burnt out. Big time. Yeah. Now, why do you think that? Well, I mean, you know, you got Biden dropping out, you bring her in, you know, no primary. And she's like, she's stacking up the minority cards a little bit too much. You know, if you didn't go for Hillary, it's definitely not going to go for Kamala. I think we found that out. I don't think there's any need for us to dip our toe in that, in that pool again. So am I hearing this, you think just like, uh, it's too hard for a woman, a black woman to win? Absolutely. 100%. Just in general, and I have an election just in America, you know, says that because of that, you think the Democrats should nominate somebody else? Absolutely, for sure. The black, let's get a black woman saying, what do you think about what he just said? I think it's hard because like you want black women to succeed. You want to see them, but you have to play the game. And I don't think that Kamala can win the game going into election day last year. I think she was all ready. Did you think like, oh, a black woman can win? Or did it took after that? You're like, it's like after that. It took after that. I think I was just as surprised as I think a lot of people were to think that it's not even like, oh, we're not as progressive. It's just like, oh, I think it's we're in a unique time in America where it's like, you don't need to be political to be a politician. You need to be popular. You need to be sellable. You need to be favorite. Like, you need to feel popular. Isn't she? I mean, theoretically, she's too smart. You need to say, yeah. She's too smart. I think that people can't relate to her. I think the people in middle of nowhere, I think it's really easy in a big city to compare yourself to other people living around, but I've lived in rural Georgia, rural Ohio. Like, I've lived in these rural areas where you drive and you see nothing, but the Republican, you see nothing but support. And it's like, how do you change the mind? Yeah. And I don't think a person like Kamala, I think she's too far. I think, yeah, you need to consider someone to go through some, someone who looks a little bit more like what they're used to, to get the tone in. So we're saying white guy again. Yeah. Or white woman, like you saw the how that went the first time. I want to hear you though. Are we saying white guy? I'm saying it because I'm at a point now where I would rather have a competent white man than have another Trump run that back. And I think it's unfortunate. I think it's unfortunate. That's like where we are, but I think that we've like just progressed so far back to like, it's almost up yet to start the game over again. I think the whole Democratic Party needs to step that game. I mean, what he's doing and what he's trying to know. Nobody's doing that. It's, it's ridiculous. It needs me in there. Tell us which which bucket you're going to vote in. I'm going to vote in the notebook. You're going to vote in the notebook. Why? Only just because before she, you know, ran for president, and then also was the vice president with provided. She did a lot of stuff that was not, I don't know how to say it. I guess it's been official to the black community really. And a lot of times I feel like us black people only see someone that is of our color. They kind of like gravitate towards them because they feel as if they're going to do what's best for us. And then also I care a lot about what's happening in Palestine too. And I don't like her politics when it comes to that. Either what she does. If she tries to benefit off in a black too. What do you mean by that? As in like a lot of times like before before like all this president to stuff. I didn't really recall her acknowledging that she was canful. If that makes sense. It makes sense. So and now because it's been official for her and she needs our votes. She's like, yeah, I'm black and I'm proud all of the same. You're saying looking forward. That's not where you want to go then. Oh. I was going to ask the question and should she run again? I don't know what yeah. I mean, all right, all right, all right. So it seems like if you had some problems last time, but you're not opposed to her running again. If she, yeah, if she does a lot of things, and she changes certain things, and she comes and hit all these pointers, especially, I feel like building with Trump's presidency, I feel like we're not going to have that many candidates that's willing to do half the things that she's probably willing to do, especially in this upcoming election, because if we see what's going on, I feel like J.E. is probably going to try to run for president, and that's a-- Heck no, it's so light. So you're saying if that's their two options, then you're kind of leaning around to work. How about you put down what the things you will want her to see differently, mention Palestine, and things like that. When you're saying things that you felt weren't for the black community before, you're talking about the criminal justice stuff, and that's all that. Which I understand it, but it's like to me, I feel as if her target more so was us. That makes sense. It's saying she was locking us up until she needed our vote. Yeah. I'm like, let me cut through the day. Yeah, all right. Did you vote for Kamala Harris in 2024? Yes, I did. You did? Now, do you think she should run for president again? Well, I don't see why not. I mean, I think she has the right to just like any other American citizen. Do you think it's a good idea for the Democratic Party? Well, I'll be totally honest with you. I don't think the Democratic Party right now knows its head from the whole of the ground. So they don't have anything to lose, really, by putting her up there to be honest with you, because I just basically think that right now, I really don't see anyone else on the horizon that has the charisma to rally those who are opposed to the current regime right now. So we are some people saying like they worry that a woman would have a tough time winning. They worry of that after last time that they need somebody fresh, like things like that. I wonder what you think about those type of things. Well, now Joe Biden ran for president, at least three or four times before he was actually elected. Yep. OK, Ronald Reagan ran about two times before he was elected. So I really don't think that that's an accurate comparison to say that just because you lost once doesn't mean that you shouldn't run again. Yeah, that's right. She ran twice. Yeah, exactly. So I mean, there's no real reason why she should. You want to join? Yes, absolutely. OK, so how about-- you said no way. I don't think she should run again. Tell me, tell me why. Because if you haven't seen her since you ran, that's the only time you've seen her when she was following the ticket. Every since then, we heard nothing else from her. So why would she run again? We're in South Carolina because this is an all-important stay, all-important question. And so people like you are the exact thoughts we want to hear. So you-- I see you pondering, yeah. I see you should. I know I was pondering. I was just thinking about what I was going to say. Oh, OK, OK. Now, can you give us a reason why? Because we need women. Really women. Women do the thing right. And every time we get a chance to make a step, they push us back. Wonderful. All of us get in trouble and vote for that. Everything is going to change. You're going to claim the proper lesson there now. Why do you think it will go differently next time than it went the last couple times? Because she went through three times a charm. Third times a charm? There we go. You're more than welcome. Thank you. You want to talk to us about what you voted and why? What do you-- Oh, you think she should run again? Yes. Now, the question I've been asking all the people who vote, yes, is, why do they think next time it will go differently than last time? Because top has opened up those eyes of those things. All right, so we're asking people if they think Tom Lehrer is the run for President again in 2028. We would love to know y'all's answers. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Well, why? Yeah, why? I think she had a really strong political standpoint. She had a slight ability to-- Yeah, she really did. Like, she told us everything that was going to happen in this presidency, like in this candidacy. I feel like she genuinely wants to help everybody. It's not like a side thing to prefer. You believe her? Yeah. I believe her. I think she's genuine. Why do you think she would have a better chance of being successful in 2028 than she wasn't in 2024? Because now she's going to mitigate what goes wrong. Like, now she's in the ground. You're saying, like, it's the circumstances are different. Yeah. She can anticipate what goes wrong. She can build her campaign based on what went wrong. And then she can build back and come back stronger. So I think she has rates. Some people were like, you know, Democrats might need a white guy. If they're worried that women can't win, they're worried that black women can't win. Is that a fear that you all have? No, black women can do anything. I think people in this country have gotten to their bone for sure. Being outwardly against groups of people. You're saying there's a moment of recognition that Trump is kind of fumble. That you think that Harris can now come back and see them. It's about here, y'all, right? It's possible. OK. [MUSIC PLAYING] In a nutshell, America's not ready for women to leave. I would love to see her take office. But I have to agree. I don't think the United States is ready right now to actually put a woman in the office. I don't think there'll never be a woman president in the United States. Now, wait, wait, wait. You can't just walk away on that. Tell us why. Because the system, if you look at the system, it would be an old man from the beginning of time, certainly. But, you know, I mean, as of 2007, it was only white guys for a whole period of time. Why can't that system change? Well, if we could get out and do the right thing, yeah. That's the man thing. Do you want to write that? I'll say, Harris. Harris, would you-- Why? Yeah. Well, I didn't think she got a first floor right. It wasn't enough time for her to get in. But she needed to, as far as getting the word out for what she actually implement. If anything at all, just no talk to him. You've been doing a whole-- You just think that she had too little bit of time last time. Oh, I see her. What do you think? I would be-- I don't know her at the end of she ran again. But do you want her to run again? I don't know if I want her subjected to all of the heavy subdeck hope of this. Yours seems to be more like, you don't want to see her go through that again. Yeah. Interesting. Now, is that something-- is that a penalty of like racism and sexism? You think would apply to any black woman running? Absolutely. But, yeah. So this isn't Harris, could sit down. OK, so I'm just going to tell you straight up. I'm not a chump. Oh, god. And when you're dealing with the re-thuglicans, you really have to step up and be ready to deal with them. And I think Gavin Newsom, he's ready to throw punches. He's ready to fight. He's not a right of him. He won't back down from them. So I'm hoping that we can have, if not Kamala, which I think she won't back down either. But if not Kamala, I just wanted to be someone with a backbone. So I'm going to put you in the bathroom. The election is primaries today, and you have to choose between Newsom and Harris. You vote for him. I'm still rolling with hair. OK. I'm rolling with hair. It's all the way. All right, so I'm back in New York, and I'm getting ready to count the votes from South Carolina. But before we do that, there is one person I really wanted to talk to. Now, remember, Kamala Harris's former communications director, Jamal Simmons, told me that she needs the support of two groups in order to mount another campaign. She needs her base, who we talked to in South Carolina. And she needs the donors. And so to get a temperature check on that group, I decided to call up John Morgan. I'm John Morgan, and I'm a lawyer in Florida. John's an influential mega donor. He first got involved in democratic politics way back and built Clinton's years. Donate an an-raised tens of millions of dollars. So I decided to start by asking him straight up. Do you want Kamala Harris to run for president again? I do not. I think that everything associated with the Biden administration needs to be put to the side and moved on. I mean, Hillary Clinton came out saying that everything that happened was a disaster. He made a terrible mistake for himself, his legacy, and for the country. He had said that he would not run again. I just think that everything that happened has left the bad taste, and we need a fresh start on that side of the aisle. And look, I understand how she's feeling because the books I read, and I think she went to bed thinking she had a shot. You can imagine her feelings to have felt that she was that close. And look, she knows why. I mean, she had a short campaign. She was tied to Biden. I think it's time to turn the page, new book, new song book. And I don't think the money would come to her and the votes wouldn't come. That was my second question. I hear your individual opinion like, do you think from a donor community largely that there's any appetite for a Harris return? I don't. And look, her natural base is going to be California. And she's going to be competing heavily with Gavin Newsom in California. So they're going to be kind of cannibalized in each other's donors. But are you hearing that privately? Because I'm sure there's conversations that you're having among a donor class that we're not hearing it chronically, and I'm hearing it publicly. I mean, the loss was so spectacular. With so much money. I mean, it was not as bad as McGovern in 1972, but it was a shellocking. If people are privately saying that they don't think Harris should run, why do is there such reticence to say it publicly? When we talk to people, we were calling folks around, people I kind of know privately even might be skeptical, but there's a real concern about saying it out loud. If Democrats think her running again puts them in the worst position, why not just say it? >> Well, Democrats are so worried about being labeled and saying something like, oh, I got you. But I think people think to say no to her, they could be labeled racist and they don't want that because they're Democrats. I guess to play devil's advocate against even my last point, what would be so bad about her throwing her hat in there? Like, you know, should donors kind of have the right to preclude someone or kind of get ahead of their decision process in the ways that might not be where the electorate is? No, absolutely not. When you have a robust primary with everybody taking real bullets and shooting real bullets, the strong usually survive and so I'm not saying she should not run. I'm saying if you believe that you're destiny, I believe that the journey is the reward, not necessarily the win and if I was thinking like her, I would never want to go to my grade wondering what if I mean, one of the things, you know, she's got to really be thinking about it. We all would if we were her. If she did throw her hat in the ring and if the money didn't come, it would be very embarrassing. That's kind of where I was going to land is like, if you're what you're saying is that you don't think the money would necessarily flow to her if she came back, doesn't that create some sort of awkwardness? Like if the former vice president was to run for president again and there's not an appetite from the highest levels of the party, that would seem sort of unsustainable as a campaign. It would be and it would be very hurtful to her because she'll be going, look, she knows where all that money's from coming from. And so her first calls would be to go back to all of that money. Go back to those folks, go back to Alex and guess what, she might be doing it now. If I was her, I would, I'd be fairly now who's in and who's out. And I don't think that she'll jump in if she starts getting a lot of nose. But by no means should she just say, hey, the donor class doesn't want me. The donor class doesn't get to decide who the people get to decide. The donor class gets to decide who they're going to support. And by the way, it's going to be about 15 people. If Kamala Harris does kind of end up getting in the race, would you sit out money wise? Like, kind of, how would you play that if she were, you know, seeming to return? If Democrats look like they were going to nominate her again? I did not appreciate the anointing of Kamala Harris for president. I believe that there should have been a brief, aggressive primary to let the best person win. And I think that what Joe Biden did is he was pissed off. He was an FU to Nancy Pelosi and in a fit of anger and maybe in a fit of, you know, days, he just made her the nominee and everybody had to live with it. All right. My last question, John is, okay, let's say if Harris isn't the standard bear you're seeking for a more moderate liberal lane, who are the names that you're excited by? Who you think could occupy what the Biden administration was supposed to represent? But in a new fresh for the ironic part about the Democratic party is they have a long bitch, a big bitch. And I think there are people like Andy Beshear, who won three times in a very red state. I think Mark Kelly, who was attacked by the Trump administration and he fought back. I think Westmore and Maryland is like, you know, just, I mean, off the charts, charismatic. I don't think you can count Whitmer out. Look, there are so many good ones. The Democratic party has a lot of options. John, it kind of sounds like you're saying anyone but Harris. I would not want her and I would not want Buttigieg to say anyone but anyone tied to Biden. Yes. The campaign needs to be called bye bye, Biden like the, what was that instinct or the backstreet boys? Yeah. Yeah. Bye bye. It needs to be bye bye bye, Biden and everybody is associated with it. All the campaign managers, everybody that worked on the campaign, just go home. Let's start fresh. Let's see what we get. John, I appreciate your time. Thank you. And let's stay in touch as we keep going through the cycle. All right. You're good at this. I appreciate it. Okay. So it's finally time to count the votes from our afternoon at the Juneteenth picnic in North Charleston. We asked dozens of people about whether they think Kamala Harris should run for president again or whether they will prefer a new option. She is intelligent and we need to bring hope back alive. We need more women in government. Yes, she should run. People are fed up with Maga and Republicans. And as we tally up the votes, it seems like a firm victory for the yes corner, about 60 40 split. Here are some of the reasons we heard from the nose. Folks are still racist and sexist and you need a new face. Face ideas, a lot of use of the term fresh. No, we're burnt out. When you hear the reasons that people laid out in both the yes and the no buckets, there is a desire among some parts of the base, seemingly for her return. But at the same time, the skepticism represented by people like John was also clear in Charleston, which I think speaks to the uncertainty that is currently gripping the Democratic Party. Even among the supposed front runner, who is leading the polling at the top of their 2028 perspective candidates, they can't even agree whether it's a good idea whether that person gets in the race or not. America actually will be in your feeds with an interesting interview in politics or culture. You can of course also watch these episodes on the Vox YouTube channel. Just go to youtube.com/vox or click the link in the show notes. The best way to support this show is by becoming a Vox member. Members get a bonus segment on Patreon every week and they make our work possible. Go to vox.com/members to join. This show was edited by Kasha Prasalian, fact checked by Sarah Schwep and mixed by Shannon Mahoney. Christopher Snyder is our video editor and who knew we is our senior art director. Our executive producer is Christina Valis and our theme music is by break master cylinder. From support from Miranda Kennedy, David Tadashore and Nisha Chattal. I'm Aesthet Herndon and this is America actually.