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IRGC, the Iranian Revolutionary
the hardest core element of the regime, they're calling the actual shots, right? They are the
ones who've closed the Strait of Hormuz. They're the ones who are collecting the tolls. They're
the ones who are firing drones at the Gulf. And so some of these kind of civilian leaders,
these political leaders of Iran may not even be able to deliver what they're negotiating at the
table because the IRGC are the ones that ultimately have to sign off and they're the
hardest of the hardliners. And they got the big guns.
And they've got the guns. And so first of all, this is what happens when you kill the leadership
of a country, right? So they've killed multiple people, not just Ayatollah. They've killed other
people that could have been decision makers because they had more sway with the IRGC.
And they've kind of finally settled on this speaker of the Iranian parliament who
has some cred with the IRGC. But so on the Iranian side, you've got this split and the IRGC is like,
you know what? We can sense that Trump is afraid of this war.
And so why would we make a deal that doesn't get us everything we want? You know, we want sanctions
relief. We want the Strait of Hormuz to be a toll road. And, you know, maybe we'll ship out the HEU,
the dust, as Trump says. But we probably don't want to make any more concessions on nuclear
program. Why should we? This guy's scared of us. He doesn't want the war. Then Trump
doesn't really know what he wants. He just wants to be able to say he won.
Clearly, he wants to get like the dust out, which, again, as we've talked about, doesn't
change the underlying Iranian nuclear program.
Just sprinkle it on a toilet seat for Bobby Kennedy.
He just wants something to say he won. But because he doesn't really know why he went to war,
he doesn't even know what he's really pushing at the table. You know, before the war,
they were pushing ballistic missiles, support for proxies. That's all gone.
Regime change.
We're just regime change.
Justice for protesters killed.
We're back to the JCPOA negotiation, you know. And so that's all Trump knows. And then the
Pakistanis probably don't even know why they're hosting this thing.
They're just happy to be there.
Yeah.
Other than they, you know, made billions of dollars of investments in Trump and Witkoff's
kids' business, you know, crypto business. So this is not the best recipe for de-escalation.
Yeah. So I saw this BBC reporter tweeted that the Iranian delegation was basically ready
to come to the negotiating table. But then everything changed over the weekend when the
U.S. military fired on an Iranian-flagged cargo ship, according to some Iranian source.
And that just blew everything up. And they want the blockade basically lifted.
Yeah.
I'll get more into the TikTok of how we got there. But Ben, I've been reading, you know,
there's a great economist piece about the kind of intra-Iranian power struggle that you were just
touching on. It's between elected officials. It's between the military. It's between nationalists
and Islamists. And the way this kind of played out and manifested in practice was Iran sent
80 officials to the last round of Pakistan talks.
Yeah.
30 of them were deemed decision makers. And I think on a previous episode, we talked about how
the Iranian delegation was stacked with experts and expertise and people had been in negotiations
before. And that is definitely like the glass half full version of it. But the glass half empty
version was the economist reported that the Pakistani mediators spent as much time kind
of refereeing fights between members of the Iranian delegation as facilitating talks with the U.S.
So, yes, it does sound like there's a very real power struggle happening and no clear way that
it ends besides, you know, the military probably killing a bunch of people or throwing them.
Yeah.
I mean, some of this is also probably like you want to go to Pakistan. It's been a little rough
on Iran.
It's true.
Probably sounds nice to be in a hotel with good Wi-Fi and like, you know, all you can eat breakfast
buffet, you know.
It's a good point.
The other thing I would say is, and this gets to the true social posts, when I was, you know,
in charge of, for lack of a better term, like, you know, advocating for the Iran deal,
there was a dynamic that would happen where, look, obviously, we were trying to emphasize
that we were not going to do anything. We were not going to do anything. All that we got in the deal. So we would lean into, like, you know, they're going to submit to
these intrusive inspections and they're going to ship out the stockpile and they're going to,
we're going to be able to see all of their program, the uranium mines and mills and the
centrifuges, all true. But sometimes John Kerry would get a call from Javad Zarif, the foreign
minister, who'd be like, hey, can you guys kind of chill out a bit on the intrusive inspections
piece? Because it's true.
But the IRGC, I mean, he didn't necessarily say it in these words, but basically it was giving him
problems with the hardliners back home, right? The IRGC didn't want the deal or they didn't like
aspects of the deal, like the intrusive inspections where you could just show up
and look at stuff. And so it hurt him in the Iranian system if we were leaning into that.
Imagine if you were the Iranian negotiator and you're, you know, you're probably out in front
of the IRGC a little bit in Pakistan and you're like, well, yeah, maybe we could ship the dust
out in exchange for this. And you're, you know, you have to sell it back home to these killers in
the IRGC. And then all of a sudden you wake up on a Friday and Trump is true social posting
all these concessions that you actually didn't make. The strait will be open forever, which is,
you know, not something that I'm sure the Iranians agreed to, that they're not going to enrich
uranium that Trump was posting on. The IRGC guys, I guarantee you called up the negotiators and
were like, what the fuck?
Hey, maybe come pay a visit to us, you know? And it's like, ah. And so of course they're like
backing out because they don't want to get killed by the IRGC. And so Trump is literally endangering
the negotiators by what he's doing. I can sense that.
It's a good strategy. No, it makes a lot of sense. Okay. So let's, let's do a bit of the
tail of the tape about how we got to this point. And like you said earlier, we recorded a bonus
episode for the Pod Save the World YouTube on Friday about this like flurry of social media
activity. So please-
Please subscribe to Pod Save the World on YouTube to make sure you don't miss any of these bonus
episodes. And also when you subscribe and you like, and you share the stuff we do on YouTube,
you help us get people good information when they're just searching for what the hell's
happening with the Iran talks and not factual, not like propaganda. Because Ben, I made the
mistake of watching a clip of Hugh Hewitt on his show, interviewing Eli Lake about the latest
on the ceasefire talks. It was like a parallel universe where everything was solved. The war
was a triumph. They'd figured it all out. So-
But the reality that that's not true.
They do a lot of dust. You know, a lot of that Iranian dust.
If Obama had done this, they'd be yelling about how we let the regime in place, how
they left the ballistic missiles. Anyway.
Yeah. Yeah. So, okay. Last week we had this flurry of claims from Trump on social media.
You mentioned a few of them, but let me just read them. Iran has agreed to never close this
trade-off from us again. It will no longer be used as a weapon against the world. Not sure that one
held up. The USA will get all nuclear dust created by our great B-2 bombers. No money will
exchange hands in any way, shape, or form.
And then finally he said, Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are prohibited
all caps from doing so by the USA. That one I liked. So, it was all bullshit. Iran had only
announced a partial opening of the strait. And then by Saturday, they'd walked back even that
partial opening because the Iranians were pissed that Trump said, well, we're going to continue
our blockade of the strait. Then things escalated further after the Iranians attacked two Indian
flagships attempting to transit the strait. Trump called those attacks a total violation of our
ceasefire agreement. And then he re-upped his threat to destroy Iran's civilization,
its civilian infrastructure, by saying, if they don't take the deal, the United States is going
to knock out every single power plant, every single bridge in Iran. No more Mr. Nice Guy,
all caps. That's how we've ended that one. The US later boarded and seized an Iranian vessel that
was en route from China. The US seized a tanker in the Indian Ocean. So, things just kept escalating
and escalating. On Monday, Iran's Speaker of the Parliament and lead negotiator, Mohammad Ghalibaf,
said Iran will, quote,
accept negotiations under the shadow of threats. And, quote, we have been preparing to show new
cards in the battlefield. So, I was excited for like a mid-season twist here. So, Ben, obviously,
my working assumption has been that Trump wants a deal or he wants the war over. He wants to punt
this as far down the road as he possibly can and just do CNBC hits and convince a bunch of
commodities traders. Meathead traders. That he is, in fact,
going to fold on everything and taco, whatever you want to call it, and just like not make their
lives harder, not increase the oil of energy. But also, he refuses to admit that he hasn't
accomplished all of his goals. There will be people pushing him from the right to actually
get the HEU. Like, I've zero doubt. I've zero hope that the Israelis will actually
adhere to this demand that they never attack. And they're still in Lebanon.
Lebanon again. Yeah. And they're still occupying Lebanon. We'll get into all the
details of that later. So, I don't know, man. Like, this is as clear as mud. But like,
how do you see this playing out in this moment? I think if you look at the Iranians,
they know they don't have to give much. You know, in some ways, they could choose to give nothing.
And the war just kind of freezes. I think what they want, though, is money. You know, they want
either unfrozen assets, like, you know, we heard rumors of $20 billion. They want either, you know,
probably more comprehensively.
So, they can just sell oil without it being sanctioned. They want to tax the state of
Hormuz in perpetuity. They just want revenue, you know. And what will they trade to get that?
They will not trade away their ballistic missile program, because they've just demonstrated how
much they need it. They're not going to trade away their support for proxies, because it's
kind of existential to them that they have these proxies. And they're not going to say that they'll
never enrich uranium. They're not going to say, we won't have a nuclear program.
So I think what they had to trade away is the dust, because the dust
Dust is not, frankly, that important.
Which isn't dust, by the way.
It's not dust.
It's enriched uranium.
It's containers.
It's highly enriched uranium.
It's so weird that we have to call it dust because he has to say that he obliterated the program.
But anyway, because fundamentally that means nothing to them.
They still have centrifuges that they can operate.
If they choose to have a covert nuclear program, they just take those centrifuges underground and accumulate more dust.
So I could kind of see some deal where they ship out the HEU and, I don't know, maybe they promise not to enrich uranium for some period of time.
Which, by the way, that promise is worth nothing absent rigorous inspections, which I don't think they're going to submit to.
And so then Trump says he got the deal of the century.
It's so much better than Obama's Iran deal, even though it's going to be probably a lesser version of the Iran deal.
And it'll be like the dust for some centuries.
Sanctions relief, you know, and the war's over.
For 15 years instead of 10 or something.
And if you think about it, yeah, but it'll be a phony.
They can say 100.
They've learned that deals are fungible.
They've learned that, you know.
So to them, any deal they make is a deal for the duration of the Trump presidency.
It's a two and a half year deal.
And they'll reassess at that point.
Or maybe they'll just cheat and have a covert nuclear program.
And so you could see this world in which Trump declares victory because he got the dust out.
Right.
The Strait of Hormuz that was open before the war was open.
Again, measure that against what he said at the beginning of the war.
There's going to be regime change.
We're going to obliterate, you know, their nuclear program.
They're going to have to end their ballistic missile program.
We're going to destroy their Navy.
Well, clearly we haven't destroyed their Navy because they've closed the Strait of Hormuz with like a bunch of speedboats, you know.
So he's not achieved the things he said he would.
And it was totally unnecessary to launch this war, kill all these people.
Upend the entire global economy, you know, permanently lose the Gulf states, you know, as people that are reliant on the United States and on and on and on.
Was all that worth it to get like the dust out?
Does anybody in America even care about the dust?
Which, by the way, had already been dusted as far as we were concerned based on Trump's claims.
Well, and the question is, and I have a question for you, Tommy, is like, this is a Hugh Hewitt question, is like, will the right wingers accept?
Because that's the total capitulation of the Iranians.
Yeah.
I think that where. What they will tell themselves, the story they'll tell themselves is, look, he destroyed all of, you know, Isfahan.
He destroyed all the nuclear facilities.
It will take a generation to build them back.
They have no revenue.
The military capacity is, you know, a fraction of what it once was.
Therefore, that is some big win when it's like what everyone has always said about military efforts to shut down Iran's nuclear program.
It's like you can set them back, but you cannot permanently take it away or solve the problem.
And I think they'll convince themselves that the problem has been, you know, solved as much as it could have been.
And what I think we know in reality, there could be like a garage somewhere in Iran with some nuclear centrifuges spinning that's enriching, you know, uranium to the grade they need it to be.
They're just in this fantasy world where this is a game of risk.
Because I think the most important thing we've learned from this war is that the demonstrated capacity of the Iranians to close the Strait of Hormuz is worth 10,000 ballistic missiles.
It's worth far more than support for Hezbollah, you know, like, and they can't, whatever capabilities Iran lost, they gained a much bigger one in showing that just firing a few drones at some tankers and threatening to the Strait of Hormuz gives them control of the global economy.
So congratulations, Hugh Hewitt and Eli Lake.
You've just empowered the IRGC more than anything that has happened since the 1970s.
Another Trump win.
Except for maybe the Iraq war, which empowered them significantly.
So this is the second time that the neocons have given the IRGC a gigantic win.
So this is the third time that the IRGC has given the IRGC a gigantic win.
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One group that didn't get a win here is the Iranian people.
Let's talk about what life is like for them right now to the best we can.
So the estimate you see in terms of civilian casualties in Iran is about 1,700 people.
I think we should assume that that's a massive undercount.
But that would only be the direct death toll and that is far from the only impact.
The Center for American Progress put together a report that talks about the human environmental costs of the war.
That includes the U.S. and Israeli airstrikes that release these toxic chemicals.
And pollutants into the air.
Remember when the Israelis bombed this big petrochemical facility.
It was like, you know, there was raining like acid for days on people.
Right.
God knows what that did to civilians.
That there have been, you know, further erosions of Iran's health care infrastructure, which is already under enormous stress before the war because of anti-government protests and decades of sanctions and mismanagement.
And then Iran was experiencing this massive water shortage again before the war.
That has gotten worse because, you know, at least one of them.
One of their desalination plants was bombed.
And then on top of that, Ben, so the Iranians have dealt with like an almost total Internet blackout since the war started.
And I would just ask anyone, like, imagine any modern economy running without an Internet for two months.
Yeah, it's impossible.
Every business, every business is screwed.
Right.
And so on top of that, you know, you get the U.S. and Israel targeting major industries like petrochemical and steel.
You need those industries to rebuild the country and also to get the revenue to rebuild the country.
I saw one analyst told The Wall Street Journal that the disruption.
To the steel industry put at risk more than five point five million jobs within Iran and then another one point two million at risk because of impacts on the chemical and pharma industry.
And so, like, again, to sum it all up, there were all these protesters who Trump said he was going to rescue who are now like staring down the barrel of a more hard line regime.
Right.
They traded the older hominy for the younger hominy.
The IRGC is more entrenched and life is just exponentially worse for them.
A disastrous economic situation.
And so, you know, we're going to have to think about what we're going to do next.
And I think that's going to be a big part of this.
Yeah.
I think that we live in this world in which, you know, our news cycle focuses on this place when the bombs are falling.
And then, you know, it's the same impulse as Trump.
Trump kind of reflects the worst aspects of America.
It's a common thread with Trump.
If I can just get this off the television set, you know, and actually to him it's the television set for most of us.
It's our phones.
Then, you know, we'll think about other things.
We'll think about, I don't know, the ballroom.
Or the next war against Cuba or whatever.
But I think what you're reminding us is of the people inside of Iran.
Like this war.
going to be with them for a very long time. It's going to show up in, you know, deeper poverty,
deeper repression, maybe health effects of some of these things that have been done,
that millions of people will, and actually millions of Iranians were also displaced, you know.
Millions of people's lives are worse because of what Donald Trump did. And that's the kind of
moral outrage that's sometimes missing, you know, when people talk about like democratic opposition
to the war, that's about like, he didn't ask Congress the right way. Like, what about the
fact that like-
It's not about the briefing.
Yeah. He just fucked over like millions of Iranians and-
In perpetuity, by the way.
Gulf Arabs and Lebanese and the US civil service members who died or were wounded,
their lives are never going to be the same. And I think we kind of have to remind ourselves of
that human cost. I think the other thing that'll be interesting is, you know, there's a world in
which protests resume, you know, life is shitty there. But the IRGC,
is now like more dug in. They frankly think that they just weathered. If we can weather
Trump bombing us and the Israelis bombing us, we can deal with these protesters.
And there's less of a threat of the United States bombing again.
Yeah.
Like if they're cracking down and killing thousands of protesters at some future date,
you know, they probably think, well, Trump doesn't want to get another war.
And I think the other thing that's happened, I'd be curious, and we won't know until we ask,
you know, actual Iranians, which is hard because internet block out,
among other things, these diaspora Iranians that were very supportive of the war,
like Reza Pahlavi, who was calling on people to rise up and suggesting he was going to go
run a transition. Those people have to be pretty discredited because-
Oh, you would think. Well, you and I talked about this. I mean,
people who push for wars and the wars go badly are almost never discredited in Washington. So
I'm sure he'll have a friend there. Yeah, he'll have a friend in Washington.
But I mean- Within Iran.
Again, he told these people that he was going to run some transition. Trump cast him aside the same
way he did- Yeah.
The same way he did Maria Machado in Venezuela. So it'll be interesting to see how the diaspora
kind of adjusts to this, because I think there's a lot of splits. The people that advocated for
this now look like they just advocated for something horrible to happen to their country.
I'm not suggesting that's what they wanted to happen, but that is what happened.
But that's what happened.
So I think, yeah, by every metric, life is worse for Iranians.
And there's just no timeframe for building it back. I mean, Iranian state media put the cost
of rebuilding Iran at $270 billion. Where is that money going to come from?
And even over in the UAE, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration is
considering basically a bailout for the UAE, because their economy has been hit so hard. So
the entire Gulf is feeling this ripple out. And so, Ben, maybe the best news we have for you guys
today, at least in this kind of bucket, is that the ceasefire is mostly holding in Lebanon.
On Friday, Trump posted on Truth Social, like we mentioned earlier, Israel will not be bombing
Lebanon any longer. They are prohibited from doing so by the USA. Enough is enough. Axios reported that
this caught the eye of a lot of people. And I think that's a good thing. I think that's a good thing.
the Israelis by surprise, and that Netanyahu was, quote, personally stunned and alarmed by the
message. It's nice to take that one. Trump later elaborated to Axios, saying Israel has to stop.
They can't continue to blow buildings up. I'm not going to allow it. Again, I'm very skeptical
that that will hold. But God, I would have loved to hear Joe Biden say that one fucking time about
Gaza over the course of two years. Anyway, the IDF, though, is still occupying a huge chunk of
Israel. We should call it what it is, which is Israel invading and occupying another country.
A bunch of Lebanese people used the ceasefire to return to their villages and just check out
their homes. They found them destroyed, in many cases, flat into the ground by U.S. military
provided bulldozers. Last week, 40 Democrats voted to block the sale of military bulldozers
to Israel because they're using for this kind of stuff. But unfortunately, that vote failed.
Folks on social media over the weekend, Ben, might have seen this pretty shocking image of an IDF
soldier.
Literally sledgehammering the face of a statue of Jesus Christ on the cross. This happened in a
Christian town in southern Lebanon. When I first saw this image, I thought it must have been AI
generated because it looked designed in a lab to inflame sectarian tensions and erode support for
Israel among evangelicals. But nope, turns out it was real. In a statement, notably a statement
released in English, Netanyahu said he was stunned and saddened by the soldier's actions, and he
vandalized the statue and the soldier who took the picture were removed from combat duty and sentenced
to 30-day military detentions. But there were six others on the scene who were going to be punished
separately, probably get a slap on the wrist or something. We'll find out. But the damage was done.
This incident outraged conservatives, outraged religious leaders. It's not an isolated incident.
Folks probably remember that the only Catholic church in Gaza was shelled a couple different
times, and the priest there was wounded in one of those shellings. So, Ben, we've talked before on the
show about how Israel's biggest supporters in the U.S. are not American Jews. It's evangelical
Christians who want the rapture to come. Do you think these stories will dent that support? Because
you do see this narrative get lifted up by Tucker Carlson a lot, for example.
I think so. I mean, first of all, I'm dubious of the ceasefire. One statistic I saw, Tommy,
was that there was a ceasefire with Hezbollah in late 2024 that was reached,
and the U.N., the U.N. force in Lebanon reported 10,000 Israeli violations of that ceasefire
before this latest war started. And we saw the same thing in Gaza. Israel's violated the ceasefire
in Gaza hundreds, if not thousands of times. And so what they do is what Trump wants is,
again, Trump doesn't really care about the people in Lebanon or Gaza. He wants it to be
a low enough level of violence that it's just kind of not leading the news.
And so if Israel's like occasionally bombing Lebanon in perpetuity, that's fine as long as
it's not like the big show where they were, you know, obliterating Beirut. So count me skeptical
about the directives of Netanyahu to prohibit him from doing this in Lebanon. On the Christian stuff,
I think that the problem for Trump and Israel is that there's a bunch of converging things happening
is that you have, yes, like,
in Lebanon, these are, some of these villages that are being destroyed are Christian villages.
Some of them are Christian, like, you know, they have lineage that goes back to, like, the Bible,
you know, like the New Testament. Like, this is a holy land, you know, for Christians. Like,
this is where this war is happening, where Israel is occupying territory.
And some of the people, the priests have been killed in the bombing. I saw, you know, a child
that had met with the Pope was killed in the bombing. Like, there are these different things
that are. are, you know, touching this space. When you add on top of that, Trump posting the picture of
himself as Jesus, and Trump, you know, putting out this, you know, threat to annihilate, you know,
Iran on Easter morning, you know, happy Easter. There's a disrespect and disregard for
Christianity in both the actions of the Israeli government and in the personal actions of Trump.
And so the evangelical Christians are having a double reckoning, because they're both like,
huh, Trump, I thought we liked him. He got rid of Roe v. Wade, but it turns out he's mocking Jesus.
Now he seems like the Antichrist.
And, huh, like, I, you know, I thought Israel was our friend, but they're blowing up,
you know, Christian villages. And now there's this, you know, picture of an Israeli
IDF soldier, like, you know, desecrating Jesus.
Of all the things to post on social media, you take literally taking a sledgehammer to Jesus'
face. What are you thinking? What are your hobbies?
Yeah. What does that guy's feed like?
It does show you the impunity. I mean, you see this sometimes on IDF social media. Like,
remember when he used to be the most moral army in the world? Like, I guess that talking points out.
And there was another incident, I think, in a church in southern Lebanon where a bunch of IDF
soldiers, like, staged a fake wedding inside an Orthodox church and probably didn't realize,
like, how profoundly offensive that was for a bunch of Christians in that community. And that
went super viral on social media. So, like, people who, again, whose feeds push them this kind of
content have seen. Example after example after example, and are now, like, this whole most moral army thing has just
been tossed out the window. And we're not even talking about the disrespect and treatment to
Muslims, Palestinians, your average sort of, like, Lebanese person. Like, that is unfortunately
priced in.
Well, and you also remember the Israeli government closed on Palm Sunday.
Yes.
The Church of the Holy Sepulcher.
Yeah, to the highest representative of the Vatican.
Yeah. Literally where Jesus was born.
Yeah.
So, I. I think that, look, it is the case that a lot of Americans and American Christians
actually probably didn't know until a few months ago that there's a huge Palestinian Christian
community that includes and encompasses the most holy sites in the Christian church, you know?
Yeah, yeah.
Bethlehem. And Tucker Carlson, people like that are now really, you know, hitting on that point.
And so, I think it does risk lowering the floor of support.
And I think it does risk lowering the floor of support for both Israel and Trump. Because, you know, people who actually care about their Christian faith are going to be upset about this. It also is a very dangerous gateway to a certain kind of anti-Semitism that is one of the older kinds of anti-Semitism. Well, the Jews are the ones that killed Jesus, right?
Exactly. Exactly. It's very dangerous.
And again, like, it's Trump and Bibi that, you know, doesn't just justify it in any way. It shows why these kinds of wars are so dangerous for anti-Semitism.
You know, because they lead people in those,
those directions. Yeah. And again, the cost to civilians on the ground in Lebanon has been
unbearable, right? I mean, there's the direct casualty number, but then there's the million
people who have been displaced and the people who came back to their homes that have just been
leveled. We reached out to Doctors Without Borders to see kind of what they're experiencing on the
ground in Lebanon. And we got this note from an emergency physician, Dr. Tianmin Din. Let's listen.
I need people to understand what the injuries looked like that we were seeing before the
ceasefire. Now beyond the acute injuries, we're looking at a generation left with lifelong
disabilities. I visited a young woman a few days ago in ICU who we treated when she came through
the emergency department. She'd been walking along with a friend when both her legs were blown off.
She managed to survive her initial injuries. But when I visited her a couple of days ago,
she was hooked up to dialysis because the muscle destruction from her injury was so extensive
that it had started destroying her kidneys.
I also recently visited a migrant woman who'd been a patient at a clinic for years.
She was injured in one of the very first strikes in the south and she's still in the hospital.
She's bled into her brain stem and spine. She's paralyzed. Her home is destroyed and the people
who would have cared for her were killed in the same strike. We are also seeing an overwhelming
number of people whose health needs were neglected during the war, either because they couldn't reach
healthcare or their doctors were displaced or hospitals had to shut their outpatient clinics
to direct them to the hospital. I've been seeing a lot of people who don't know what they're doing.
Yesterday, our clinic diagnosed a young pregnant woman with a baby who had died in utero.
Imagine having a fully formed, wanted and loved baby and having its heart stopped because the
healthcare system had collapsed. These are complications that if they get caught early,
they can be treated, they can be delivered safely by C-section when there's a functioning system.
But there isn't one.
So, look, you often hear people say, well,
you know, the IDF military campaign in Lebanon is the most justified of all their actions because
there is this real threat from Hezbollah and for rockets, et cetera. And it's like,
okay. But there is a flip side to that argument about the human cost for people living in Lebanon
who have no association with Hezbollah, probably hate them. And that's some examples right there.
Yeah. I mean, one of the things that strikes me in listening to that clip is these
people in Doctors Without Borders, they've been in a lot of difficult places and you could hear
her voice like breaking and it's the same thing we experienced in Gaza. Like the scale of this
destruction is not normal even for a war because you hear it in her voice. Like the things that are
happening kind of go beyond there was a civilian casualty event, you know, because again, this gets
it, why is this, why is it necessary to go after the health infrastructure if you're targeting
Hezbollah? Like it just, clearly this war went well beyond targeting Hezbollah, either because
there was no targeting.
Or because it was indiscriminate or because there was really objective to kind of
paralyze the Lebanese society while you take Southern Lebanon. Now, the other thing I want
to say, Tommy, and I'm going to say this at the beginning, many thanks to the world though,
Lebanese American who sent me some wonderful Lebanese olive oil.
Okay.
Because, you know, she was-
It's not the swerve I was expecting.
Grateful for our coverage of Lebanon. But actually the reason I, I make this point
beyond just thanking that person is Lebanese, the Lebanese I know, hate that they're
countries only seen as like this war zone.
Right, no, yeah, Beirut's like this beautiful cosmopolitan city.
Yeah, if it's on the news, it's because Hezbollah and, you know, rubble in Beirut.
Right.
And, and what the olive oil reminds me of, this is this incredible place.
One of the prettiest places on the planet.
Yeah, it's this gorgeous country. They produce wonderful things. They, like, have
wonderful artists. I mean, I, it's worth naming this because there's something dehumanizing about
how we kind of, like, you know, the camera only turns on these places to show, like, rubble.
And then a commentator talking about Hezbollah, you know, like, like it's, it's like the vast
majority of Lebanese, including Shia Muslims, are not like Hezbollah operatives, you know.
No, just normal human beings.
Beirut is usually like an incredibly cosmopolitan city, not just a bunch of rubble from Israeli bombs, you know.
And so the, the, the erasure of the, the humanity of people cannot be a consequence of the war.
Yeah. And it doesn't have to be this way.
It's a bunch of political choices made by political leaders.
All right. Let's turn to just the broader problem within the administration of the failure of diplomacy and the role.
I think you and I both believe that corruption has played in all of it.
So Trump, when he has diplomatic problem, he does not send experts, as we've discussed.
He sends his idiot son in law, Jared Kushner, and his idiot golf buddy, Steve Woodcoff.
And the issue is not just that they're in over their heads, which they are.
They very much are.
It's that they are corrupt.
They have these huge financial conflicts of interest.
And we basically have no visibility into the specifics or how those conflicts of interest might impact their decision making, especially we're talking about the Middle East.
Right. And Jared Kushner's got all this golf money.
So let's just go through the examples because we've talked about this before, but I know we've done like a comprehensive kind of like corruption conversation recently.
So Kushner is this floating envoy.
He meets with the Board of Peace.
He meets with the Russians.
He meets with the Iranians.
He's in.
He's in Gaza all the time.
He's talking to the Israelis and the White House.
They talk about Jared like in this role, he's making this big sacrifice because he doesn't take like the White House salary.
Yeah.
And don't for those who might have been who might believe this bullshit, Jared is an unpaid volunteer because volunteers don't have to make ethics disclosures and release their their personal financial disclosure forms.
So we only know because of previous press reports that Jared's investment firm, Affinity Partners, got two billion dollars from the Saudis.
And he got hundreds of millions more from the Emiratis and the Qataris.
We also know that at the World Economic Forum in Davos earlier this year, Jared was ostensibly there as Trump's Middle East envoy, but he's also soliciting funds for his firm.
The New York Times said Jared was trying to raise another five billion for his fund.
I assume most of that would come from the Saudis if he had his druthers.
Bloomberg reported that 99 percent of all Affinity Partners assets belong to non-U.S. investors.
So that's the little we know about Jared.
Eric and Don Jr.
recently announced they're going to work for a drone manufacturing company, which later merged with a publicly traded Trump company that owns golf courses.
So that makes a lot of sense.
Ben is totally on the up and up.
Forbes estimated that between from 2024 to 2025, Don Jr.'s net worth went from 50 million to 300 million.
Eric's went from 40 million to 750 million.
And Barron Trump, who is a college sophomore, is estimated by Forbes to be worth one hundred and fifty million dollars.
That's all of it tied to cryptocurrency stuff.
And then finally, Ben, I know you've heard of Truth Social, but did you know that its revenue does not just come from spammy ads for mail order brides and Chinese peptides and things of that nature?
They also will do it a little multiple choice game here.
What business did Trump Media, the owner of Truth Social, get into recently via a six billion dollar merger?
Was it a orbital data centers?
No, it was a non-woke AI.
It was a non-woke AI.
In my mind, it's probably orbital data centers or non-woke AI, and I'm going to go with non-woke
AI.
Sorry, my friend.
It's fusion energy.
Really?
Yes.
Yes.
The Trumps recently got into the fusion energy business.
The conflicts of interest are so massive, the media barely covers them.
Do you see the reporting the other day that's like Jared Kushner's conflicts are barely
mentioned in the reporting?
Yeah.
That was good.
Yeah.
And it's like, this is harming our national security.
And it's kind of just not part of the conversation.
First of all, we should say there is a highly evolved network of corruption between kind
of Russia, the Gulf, the US far right, kind of Magaverse, Hungary, there's just a lot
of money that kind of swashes around this space.
And what's interesting is Jared gravitates to all the places that are the most corrupt.
Yeah.
Interesting how that works.
So, the hotel deals in Serbia.
Probably one of the most corrupt countries in Europe and an extension of Russian interests
in a lot of ways.
Or obviously, he's vacuuming up money in the Gulf.
Pakistan, as I mentioned, has a partnership with World Liberty Financial controlled by
Trump and Witkoff kids to launch a stable coin, right?
And so, that's why the. Why else are the talks in Pakistan?
Right.
So, the point is that Jared is negotiating issues that are directly related to the interest
of these countries that are paying him, in the countries that are paying, if not him,
his family members, and simultaneously raising funds for his business while he's negotiating.
And I think what is so grotesque about this is, sure, in some ways this is kind of how
business is done in parts of the world.
There's a lot of corruption, there's some big commercial deal, and there's some money
that exchanges hands under the table.
But what Jared is leveraging-.
What he's leveraging is literally the US military.
The US military is an instrument of his corruption.
Our capacity to sell weapons to the Gulf countries, or to protect the Gulf countries, or to go
to war with the opponents of the Gulf countries is directly related to this.
related to both his diplomatic portfolio and probably the reason they're writing checks.
And so it's just a higher scale corruption because he's not trading like small. It's not like,
hey, we're going to do a soybean deal and I'm going to get some money under the table. Or
Hunter Biden, I'm going to get a $50,000 a month retainer from Burisma to sit on their board and
hopefully get influence to the big guy, Joe Biden. No, this is like billions of dollars
that are being paid because he has the power of the US government behind him. And it is a shame
on the US media that they don't name. That should be in the first paragraph of every story.
It should be. It has to be.
And not for partisan reasons, because how are you informing your readers?
Tell people why.
Yeah. Why is Jared at the table?
Why is he at the table? Why are these talks failing? Why do we keep reading that Jared
and Steve Woodcock didn't understand the substance of the nuclear negotiation? Oh,
right. They're not. They're not nuclear scientists. They're there because of corruption. And like Steve Woodcock's
son, Zach, is the co-founder of World Liberty Financial, the crypto firm. It sure sounds like
a big scam or a Ponzi scheme. You know who's mad at World Liberty Financial recently, Ben,
is Justin Sun. Remember that crypto billionaire that pumped billions into World Liberty Financial?
Wow. What a coincidence. Right at the same time, the SEC investigation into one of his companies
went away and now he's accusing them of fraud. This guy's attacking World Liberty
Financial.
The Qataris gave Trump the plane. There's the real estate deals all across the world. And you
got like, you know, remember what was it, the Gaza peace agreement event when some world leader is
like, hey, Trump, can I get Don or Eric's phone number so I can call about the deal?
Yeah, yeah. No, the president of Indonesia, one of the biggest countries in the world is like,
hey, can I get Eric Trump's phone number? What do you think that's about? To get his advice about
how to deal with development in Aceh in Indonesia? Like, no. I mean, and this is all like just
happening on the open. I mean, one thing. I've heard you guys begin to talk on PSA about, you know, the Project 2029, like what happens if
Democrats win. Like, the accountability goes so far beyond Donald Trump senior, you know, like
the combination of the fraud and crimes that are being committed and also the need to have laws
that prevent this kind of corruption has got to be like one of the first spate of executive orders
from a Democratic president.
Totally agree. And Trump also got rid of all the inspector generals at all the agencies that might
be. Providing like watchdogs of this. They closed the. I remember they closed the DOJ
kleptocracy task force. They stopped enforcing FARA, which is the Foreign Agent Registration Act,
which is trying to prevent like, you know, foreign agents from buying influence in Washington.
There's been a bunch of reporting recently about this friend of Trump's from like the 80s and 90s
named Paolo Zampoli. Have you read about this guy? Fucking guy, man.
The one who knocked on his ex-wife or something to ICE?
Yeah. This dude was boys with Trump in like the 80s and 90s. He was, I think, a modeling agent.
Now Trump made him the special envoy of the president of the United States for global partnership.
Has a very Epstein ring to. Yeah, we've buddies with Epstein. And he told the FT, whatever people see me, they want something.
They want access to the president. I tell them, buy Boeing. If you want to make the president happy,
buy Boeing. It's the simplest thing in the world. It's like just talking about access trading.
Can we say one other thing about this, which is that the stock market,
it's been extraordinary to watch this, first of all, because there's an irrationality. You see it kind of going up.
Yeah. Part of the problem is Trump looks at that as a useful metric. There's two problems.
One is clearly someone is doing massive insider trading. And there's been. The BBC has a great
investigation people should look at that they've accounted for all these trades before Trump makes
an announcement of people essentially betting on Trump making that announcement and making
hundreds of millions of dollars. And it's happened repeatedly on both Iran and on tariff
15 minutes before, true social posts. And so somebody is clearly profiting. But the other thing is the market is
just a bullshit indicator for how the economy is going for people, because it's a bunch of fucking traders sitting
in front of computer screens, betting on currencies, betting on the price of oil. So even if you're going to get
fucked and they're going to be oil scarcities and your gas prices are going to go up, they can still make a ton of
money on trades by just betting where the currencies are going to go. And the prices we're all seeing reported
daily in the news are like futures prices, usually, which often are less than the actual price of a barrel of oil if you were to like
pull up to Kuwait and like throw one in the back of your truck.
It's just such the whole thing is corrupt. Capitalism has kind of reached its late stage
Frankenstein monster, you know, where it's just a vehicle for people like this to grift off of us.
You know, I think it's great that we're betting on when Maduro is going to be deposed.
Some insider can make hundreds of thousands of dollars on calcium.
Yeah, you can be a Trump insider. You can be like a, you know, a special force. I'm not trying to pune them, but like, of course, you shouldn't
have that.
There's a lot of people.
Yeah, a lot of people know when things are going to happen and they can make money off it.
Yeah. All right. Well, that was nice to get that off our chest. By the way, if you guys want to support a media company that will
always report on Jared Kushner's corruption and the Witkoff family's corruption, please consider becoming a Friend of the Pod
subscriber. Go to crooked.com slash friends. You can subscribe, you get ad free episodes, you get lots of bonus content. And you also
help us build an independent progressive media company that can help hold this administration accountable.
We'll see you next time.
Bye.
Bye.
, bye.
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All right, let's talk about corruption over in Europe. So last week, there was this historic election in Hungary, where after 16 long years, right wing populist named Viktor Orban was finally ousted after losing the parliamentary elections to a party led by his former ally Peter Magyar. It was an election that focused on anger about corruption. And frankly, you know, anger at Orban's total failure to deliver for his country. Many supporters of democracy writ large are hoping that this election might provide a playbook for how to defeat other authoritarian creeps like Orban.
And also that it might be a bellwether that might help us just kind of see the future and determine which direction Europe is going to go because there's a lot of far right parties that have been doing well. So that brings us to Bulgaria, Ben, they just had an election over the weekend that seems to have some of the same dynamics at play. Four months ago, there were these major protests against corruption and the economic state of the country, which forced the former government to resign the progressive Bulgaria party aka PB. They just wanted a land side victory on Sunday with 44.7% of the vote.
The leader is a Bulgaria's former president, Ruman Radov. Now that's a more of a ceremonial position, but he is a former fighter pilot. He commanded the Bulgarian Air Force. And you know, he's sort of an interesting character like like Orban, he took a bunch of pro Russia sounding positions. He opposed Bulgarian military assistance to Ukraine. He's criticized EU sanctions.
But there are questions about whether he's just sort of like posturing for the election, or whether he's really committed to these positions or whether, you know, he's more of a pragmatist.
Orban ever was. I guess we'll find out.
But Radev's win was
bigger than what the polling anticipated. This coalition should have a majority in parliament
now. The former prime minister and the Gerb party, I love the names of these parties overseas,
the Gerb party came in second with like 13%. The liberals got like 12% or closer to 13% too.
Ben, any thoughts on sort of developments you've seen in Hungary since we last talked
and how you might interpret the elections in Bulgaria from over the weekend?
I think, first of all, in Hungary, Peter Magyar has been as aggressive as you could possibly
wanted him to be in signaling that he's going to go after urbanism. And people may have seen
these videos of him literally going on state television, which did not allow him to appear
the entire campaign and being like, my first fucking thing to do is going to be shut your
ass down. I mean, it ticks some guts. It'd be like going on CBS News, Barry Weiss, and being like,
yeah, we're shutting you guys down. I'm not a big fan of censoring the media,
but walking into state TV and saying, to your face, live on air. So this woman,
you're full of shit. And now it's-
It's time to pay the piper. It's kind of funny.
And by the way, it's hard to overstate the extent to which Orban turned this. I mean,
he literally would not allow Peter Magyar as an opponent of his to appear on. So this goes beyond
Fox News. This was literally state media. So I think Magyar is fully justified in doing what he's
doing. He's signaled he's going to go after the corruption, including Orban's family members.
He signaled that he would arrest Bibi Netanyahu as a war criminal if he traveled to Hungary.
I mean, everything the guy says,
sounds like he's going to take a sledgehammer to Orbanism and the corruption that undergirds it.
That's good. The potential bad is there's a bit of a strongman persona in Magyar in doing this,
and I don't know what he's going to build in his place.
Yeah. He was a Fidesz party member until pretty recently, too.
But so far, it's so good. But I think what we're seeing in Bulgaria is a broader problem. There's
two issues. One is just like, whether the far right, do they have the momentum or not? And you
can find now evidence that they don't.
Orban lost, Maloney's backtracking away from Trump. Or you can find, looks like they're maybe
getting a foothold in Bulgaria. Slovenia, which we talked about that election, where the progressive
actually got the most votes, it appears that the creepy far right guy, Jansa, is the one who's
going to be able to form a government. And I think the problem for the EU is, all Russia needs is one
spoiler. And they have that in Slovakia, this guy Fico is like that, too. One country where
people are probably just pissed about prices, because people are pissed about prices everywhere.
And so they vote out the incumbent progressive party, and then the kind of pro-Russian party
gets in. And then all of a sudden, they're like, putting sand in the gears of the EU on sanctions
on Russia. This is not sustainable. If all Russia has to do to fuck up the whole EU is just find one
relatively small Central Eastern European country where there's an anti-incumbent mood and kind of
surf it into having obstructions. Now, none of these people can, it's important people know this,
people can take the role that Orban did. Orban was an absolute hub for far right activity,
for corruption. There's rumors that the Russian money was going to the Hungarians and then going
to CPAC. He was bigger than just a vote for Russia's interest in the EU. But I do think that
this speaks to a problem where the EU has to get away from unanimity of decision making,
because they're always going to have some pain in the ass leader in some country.
Definitely. Definitely. But yeah, I agree with you.
It does look like a bit of a mixed bag in those recent elections. But there's also interesting
soundings. Like Nigel Farage was asked about his relationship with Trump last week. And he said,
I happen to know him, but that's by the by. He's trying to walk away.
He's the guy that basically lived in the lobby of that Trump hotel.
Oh, he's just kissing his ass nonstop. Lord David Frost, the former Brexit negotiator,
was more critical. He said Trump was heedless of the moral element of leadership and undeserving
of support. He said, a moral line has to be drawn somewhere. And this week, Trump went beyond it.
That was in an op-ed.
In Germany, we've talked about the AFD party, the neo-Nazi party. They're distancing themselves
from Trump, especially the Iran war. And then Marine Le Pen, who's like a longtime ally and
supporter of Trump, told the French media that Trump's moves in Iran were erratic and the
consequences would be, quote, catastrophic. So again, like, it's just this weird place where
the far right is willing to be critical of Trump on Iran in ways that inexplicably cure Starmer,
the labor prime minister.
In the UK, with a 50-point underwater approval rating, will not, even though every time he does,
it seems to benefit him politically. I just can't make sense of it.
It tells you, and we said this last week, that Trump is the best thing going for anti-far right
politics, because he's such an albatross on these people that they're running away from him.
But to your cure Starmer point, if the fucking AFD can figure out that one way to boost your
numbers is to stand up to Trump, it's pretty extraordinary.
Yeah, I think it's political malpractice. I think, I've tried to be charitable. I don't believe what
I'm saying. Tell the fucking king not to go on the trip. That would send a message.
Yeah, Georgia Maloney had no problem saying to Trump, yeah, like, why is King Charles,
like, you know, don't come here. You know, like, you're pissed about this war. I mean,
Britain gets a significant amount of money. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't
significant amount of its energy from Qatar that's now offline, like that's going to screw
over a bunch of people.
Like, I just, there's no, what are you getting?
I mean, actually, let's just look at it from the other standpoint.
Like, what is Keir Starmer getting from being kind of scared of his shadow?
Getting called not Winston Churchill.
Yeah, yeah.
Getting called Neville Chamberlain on the reg.
Yeah.
Yeah, it's going great.
Trump's going to take the king to like a monster truck rally or something.
Oh, my God.
What if he'll go to the ultimate fighting event?
That'll be fun.
Maybe he can be a part of Joe Rogan's like pilot psychedelic program.
Take a little Ibogaine?
Yeah, take a little psilocybin MDMA journey.
That sounds like more fun.
The Ibogaine shit.
No, no, I think you, let's, I'll be in the other clinical trials.
I'll be in the MDMA one.
I will take, you and I can take King Charles.
Is Camilla going to come?
I'm sure she's going to come.
We'll take them to the sphere.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
We'll see if like Dead & Co. will kind of run it back.
Just run it back.
Have a good ass time.
Yeah.
Okay, we solved that one.
So let's find two more things.
So we're going to talk about the latest from Cuba.
I don't, the New York Times and Axios reported that a senior delegation from the U.S.
had visited Cuba for negotiations.
It's like the highest level talk since the Obama administration.
Those talks were reportedly about like economic reforms,
getting them to a market-based economy,
some releasing some political prisoners, not regime change.
The talks have been primarily with President Raul Castro's family,
not with the president of Cuba.
Castro is 94 years old.
So again, he's going to regime change himself.
Pretty soon.
But his kids are included, including his grandkids.
His son, Alejandro Castro Espin, who is known as the one-eyed man
because of an eye injury from when he was in Angola.
Ben, I know you know this guy.
He's been part of them.
Then there's Raul Rodriguez Castro, who is supposedly Raul's favorite grandson.
He was like his bodyguard, his body guy.
He's like the keeper of Castro's phone and controls the messages that come to and from him.
He's also known as the crab because he was born with a sixth finger on one hand.
These guys have awesome nicknames.
Imagine if the Obama kids were known as the crab and the one-eyed man.
I would say I probably spent, I'm not kidding, over a thousand hours with Alejandro Castro
because we'd have these marathon multi-day negotiating sessions,
or at least hundreds of hours, several.
Look, I'll say it.
Yeah, he lost an eye in Angola.
You kind of notice it.
I mean, there's something in there.
There's a fundamental unseriousness to how they—
I never was like, I'm off to meet the one-eyed man.
You know what I mean?
Like, these people seem like they're fucking kids in a movie.
It's like, it's the same way that Cash Patel likes to, you know, work out at Quantico.
Like, there's a fantasy camp element to them giving these nicknames of the crab and the one-eyed man.
That's the first point.
The crab is not a nickname that I would want.
No, no.
Or the one-eyed man, for that matter.
No.
The crab has got an insinuation.
What are these talks?
What is happening?
What's happening here?
So, I think what's happening—
Do you think that Iran is making them pump the brakes on this shit as, I guess, by threshold question?
Because, like, they know it's not going well.
No one has any bandwidth to do another regime change, at least not militarily.
So, like, what is the path?
How do you slow the roll?
I assume that what they want is some—
So, what's interesting is they clearly think Venezuela was a huge success.
Trump talks about it a lot.
And, look, the problem for Trump is, sure,
he got Maduro.
Delcy Rodriguez is in there.
She's cracking down on all her opponents.
And purging all the Maduro loyalists to install her own.
Including Maduro people.
But she's still a socialist, you know, strong woman.
And I guess we get some oil occasionally from them or something.
But here's the problem.
Like, most Americans just don't give a shit.
Like, no American's like, you know what?
My life is demonstrably better because we depose Maduro.
Right.
So, a few people—
A few people in Miami.
So, then I think they look at Cuba and they're like, well, we could do that.
Right?
Like, we could, you know, get rid of the leader and—
But here's the problem.
Like, they don't have oil in Cuba, you know?
And so, I imagine the potential deal could be—
I'm sure the Cubans would be willing to open up their economy.
They were before with us.
And what you might—
What Cuba has is real estate.
Right?
So, they have beachfront property.
Quite literally.
whole north coast of Cuba facing Florida, beautiful beaches.
are beautiful keys. And you could say in a very corrupt way, hey, the Miami Cubans can come in
here and own this land and develop hotels on it. Maybe they're throwing a Trump Tower or two and
a golf course. And maybe Miguel Diaz Canal, the president of Cuba, he goes. He's the Maduro in
this scenario. And they try to find some Delce Rodriguez type person that Raul Castro is okay
kind of taking the place. The problem with this is, first of all, Diaz Canal doesn't run Cuba.
I mean, that's evident by the fact that they're- Not even talking to him.
He's not even in the way that Maduro ran Venezuela. Raul's been the kind of
emeritus leader of the country. The military's got a deep interest in the economy because it's
a sanctions economy and they control a lot of stuff. And Diaz Canal is kind of an apparatchik
who's kind of the front man. So-
I think that the Eli Lakes of the Cuban hardliners know that just getting Diaz Canal out doesn't
change that regime at all. It just means a musical chairs in the president's seat for what,
a real estate deal? And it's kind of like, why did we go through all this? What we like-
Yeah, to what end?
We did a fuel blockade. We killed Cubans literally because there were power shortages
at hospitals. We've killed Cubans with our sanctions in the recent months so that some
Cubans tight with Marco Rubio can invest in real estate. Because I don't know what else Cuba can
concede. If they're not becoming a multi-party democracy tomorrow, which they're not going to
regime change themselves, there's not much for them to concede. They can release political
prisoners and again, give property to Americans. But what is this all about? How does it help
Americans? And once again, it seems like through these talks, the administration is further
empowering the next generation of Castro's.
The crab.
So we're just empowering, yeah, the six finger guy and the one eye guy and rinse, repeat. I don't
know, man. I guess hurry up and wait and we'll keep watching. Final story, Ben. So long time
listeners to the show know that we have issues with some of the people in the administration,
but that we're huge fans of FBI director Kash Patel. He is eminently qualified for the job.
Very competent.
He's a great leader. He's an expert in all facets of law enforcement. And so it was shocking to me
personally to learn that he's a great leader. And I think that's a great thing. I think that's a
the recent report in the Atlantic magazine that cash is not nearly as popular within the FBI
itself as he is with us on this show. So according to this report, Kash Patel, the FBI director,
he's routinely drunk on the job. And by the way, this is a 24 seven job. He is the piece says that
on multiple occasions, his security detail had trouble waking cash up because he was so shit
faced. And in one instance, they had to make a request for equipment used by SWAT teams to break
off. So that is that is drunk. I don't know that I've been that drunk in a long time.
I guess he didn't have a WhatsApp product. You guys just didn't have the Z biotics like
the 400 Z biotics. You could help him out. We could ship them. I'm happy to help him out because
again, I'm a big fan. The Atlantic piece reported that meetings with FBI staff have been have to be
scheduled around his hangovers and that he is, quote, erratic, suspicious of others and prone
to jumping to conclusions before he has a necessary evidence. Seems like bad tendencies for the FBI
director.
He's also incredibly paranoid about getting fired to the point where he flipped out about some random
I.T. issue and thought it meant that the White House had locked him out of his accounts.
Now, this paranoia might be justified. The article says that senior White House officials
have had conversations about who might replace cash. We also saw Minecraft head Dan Bongino
leave his job as deputy to go be a podcaster again. So, Ben, I mean, this is not the first
report that outlines all the ways that cash Patel is kind of a joke and treats the job like it's
a joke. There was this request to go jet skiing at a conference of our closest intelligence sharing
allies, the Five Eyes. We know that cash uses the FBI's private jet to fly to Italy for the Olympics,
to fly to Pennsylvania, to watch his girlfriend sing at some low rent wrestling contest,
to fly to a place called the Boondoggle Ranch. I love that you always include that. I love the
Boondoggle Ranch. I want to go. I'd like to go to the Boondoggle Ranch. If I can get us a ticket,
will you go? It sounds like the kind of place where that guy shot Dick Cheney in the face.
You and I go, that'll be us. But like, this is the first time I've seen the argument that
the people in the FBI think cash Patel is a threat to national security because of his mismanagement
of the role. Now, the counter argument you hear is like, look, every minute cash Patel is designing
his like FBI Punisher logo challenge coin is a minute. He's not like fucking up ongoing FBI
operations. I'm not sure I buy that. I see a pretty big opportunity cost here. But what did you make
this article? Oh, I have some thoughts, man. So first of all, I love that he's suing the Atlantic
for $250 million. $250 million. When Lorian Jobs owns the Atlantic. So I think she can cover the
legal fees. Dig it in the couch for that. Also, what's interesting about this is that
we saw the guy like shotgun a fucking beer at the Olympics with the hockey team. And he looked like
Will Ferrell in old school. Like remember when Will Ferrell shotguns for a spear and he's like,
oh, yeah.
Like, that's exactly how cash was acting. It's just like it was activating all the like.
Break the tank.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. And so it is completely believable that this guy, I mean, we know he was
at like Rouse. Remember the, I think maybe when Charlie Kirk got killed or something, he's at like,
you know.
Tweeting out wrong information. He's always in Las Vegas. It's something called the Poodle Club.
Yeah, yeah. I mean, you don't go there to drink seltzer. You know, he's not the kind of guy who
orders a club soda on the plane. He's the kind of guy who's getting the two bottles of wine.
But so it's eminently believable that he's a drunk. And to be serious about it, like you remember,
Tommy, like when shit happens, like the FBI director, remember the Boston Marathon bombing?
I just left, but yes.
Okay. So you just left. So Bob Mueller was, I mean, rest in peace, was in the fucking situation
room for like hours, you know, and he's briefing Obama and he's on the phone with agents in Boston
and he's managing up and down and around and he's briefing Congress.
Like shit happened on the regular where.
And there was stuff like that we never learned about, like ongoing investigations that were so
sensitive that like the White House people were never brief that they're managing. Yeah. Like
that is a, that is a 24 seven job. Literally.
You will get woken up in the middle of the night and asked a question like,
who do we have to notify about this? Or can you call your counterpart in this other country?
Because there's a terrorist plot and we need someone at the FBI director level to call the
head of MI5 or something like.
Shit like this happen all the time. So if he can't function on the job because he's hammered
for hours at a time, like that's dangerous. I'd also say like,
what is Kash Patel even doing in this job? Because like, what is his vision of the FBI?
Because all that seems to get him geeked is to have like ultimate fighting people come and train
agents or to change the logo. Like he has no vision of like how to reform the Bureau. Like
he's not even, he's so incompetent and people are so innocent that he's not even persecuting Trump's
opponents because he's too incompetent to do that. I mean, and then the last thing is I read the piece
and it kind of explains to me, Tommy, I don't know. Remember when he was like posting like through the
Charlie Kirk investigation, like we got the guy, he's in custody. Like it felt like drunk tweeting.
Totally. It was.
We've all been there.
Absolutely.
But when I've done it, it's usually been like, I'm at the end of a dinner. That's not that
interesting. So I started looking at my phone. I've had a few and I'm like, ah, I'm going to tweet
about this.
No.
I'm not going to tweet about this.
You're not the FBI director.
No. Usually for me, I'm going, I'm, I'm, I'm walking back to the main stage at Coachella.
The Molly's wearing off and I just want to weigh in on the Hungarian election.
You know?
Yeah. You, you, you've run out of things to talk to Katy Perry about. So you're just going to weigh
in on the Hungarian. Katy does want to hear your takes on the Hungarian election. So you're going
to share it with your millions of followers.
The honeymoon phase is over. All she wants to talk about is Bieber. All I want to talk about
is Orban. It's just like, I got to tweet it out. One group, one organization that seems to have
kind of grasped who Cash is, is whoever made this Lego movie about him. I don't even know
if it's the Iranians anymore. They're all getting credited.
I think this is a meme now.
Yeah. It's entirely a meme, but whoever made this one, um, had a good ass time with it.
Let's watch.
Crazy eyes. Let's go.
Cash Patel. Crazy eyes. Epstein files. Cover up lies. Trump name redacted. Congress stonewalled.
Swore you'd drop him, but you crawled.
Charlie Kirk shopped. Wrong guy in cuffs. We got him. Oops. Total bust. Olympics hockey
level.
Soccer room champ. FBI jet to Milan. You absolute tramp.
Mossad honeypot girlfriend trap. Alexis Wilkins. Israel clap back.
Iran. Hacks your Gmail. Pics go viral. Family shots and hockey spiral.
Drinking blackouts. Paranoid freakouts. Am I fired?
Meltdowns. What a leak out. Purging the pros. Installing the bros. The whole bureau's burning.
We didn't start the fire. It was always burning. Since the world's been turning.
No, we didn't start the fire, but cash. You're the one who's torching
the whole damn thing.
Maybe AI is good.
I mean, we found a good use for it.
Yeah.
I mean, the amazing thing about that is that there's every single narrative about cash
because we've been covering them all on this podcast is somehow in like a one minute video.
Yeah, how do they do it?
From, I mean, he does.
He does have crazy eyes.
Him getting hammered at the Olympics.
The Flavor and Podcast guys call him Cock-Eyed Cash.
Yeah, him posting.
the wrong guy was caught, and Charlie Kirk.
Like, everything that this guy's done, like, they can just grab that
and within, like, an hour, like, churn out, like, this AI video
that's honestly, like, pretty interesting to watch.
Now, they always have the Israel control thing.
They always have that.
So they always have, you know, Alexis Wilkins, a girlfriend,
is Mossad honeypot.
But, yeah, man, it couldn't happen to a better guy than Cash, I have to say.
I wonder if there'll be a calci market on how long it takes her
to dump him after he's fired.
You know, if he can't have a SWAT team guard her.
Actually, notes on the IRGC Lego video, they left that out,
that there's a SWAT team that basically provides security for his girlfriend.
Come on, guys, do better.
Do better.
IRGC.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Whoever made this.
Wow, good stuff.
Anyway, hopefully Trump fires Cash Patel.
Yeah.
He's on a firing spree lately.
It's just self-evident that this guy is not qualified.
By the way, maybe the point is that just things just haven't been the same
since Bongino left.
Yeah.
He's holding the whole place together.
Bongino was holding the place together.
He's holding it all up in his shoulders.
With his gigantic square Minecraft head.
Okay, that's it for the news portion of the show,
but please stick around for my conversation with Nick Enrich.
We talk about his book, Into the Wood Chipper.
It's a whistleblower's account of what it was like
when USAID got doged by Elon Musk, his idiot friends,
and presumably, reportedly, allegedly, a whole bunch of ketamine.
So stick around for that.
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My guest today is the former Bureau of Global Health's director of policy,
programs and planning for USAID.
His new book is into the wood chipper,
a whistleblower's account of how the Trump administration shredded USAID.
It's very evocative title.
And I assume one where you needed much less ketamine to come up with it than
Elon did for his famous tweet, Nick Enrich, welcome to the show.
Thanks for having me.
Great to meet you.
Um, so let's start by just, you know,
kind of talking about a bit about your time and work you did at USAID pre Elon.
Uh, you were there for over 12 years across four administrations.
What did you do?
What did you focus on and what was your proudest accomplishment?
Yeah.
So I was,
um, as you said,
the director of policy programs and planning for the global health bureau,
which was essentially the CFO COO position of that bureau.
My job was to make sure that we had the resources we needed for global health
and that we were using them as efficiently as possible to achieve our health
goals.
Um, and you know,
my job was to come up with ways to make things better.
And, and,
um, I think that's,
that's where I was the most proud.
One of the last things,
sadly that I did,
um, in the last administration was come up with a new,
uh, global health policy for the agency.
We had actually never had one before for our whole global health sector.
And we thought that this would be a great way to get a little bit more,
um, uh, efficient in the way that we would administer our programs.
I also had a list.
Um, when I heard Doge was coming in,
I had a list of things that I wanted to do to improve the agency that I thought,
um, would be the kinds of things that Doge would be excited to hear about.
Obviously quite naively because,
um, I never actually got a chance to,
to share any of those ideas.
So like far from battling these guys,
you were like,
Oh, I got some ways to make this place more efficient.
Here's my literal list of things we could do to,
you know,
make money go further.
Yeah.
They were called the department of government efficiency and you know,
in the abstract,
it sounded like a good idea.
Um, but the,
the reality was it was no such thing.
Yeah.
So let's talk about that reality.
So by now I imagine everyone listening knows how this story unfortunately ends.
It's Elon Musk and a bunch of like,
young arrogant kids from the tech world just rampaging through USAID and destroying it.
That decision alone is estimated to have already led to 750,000 deaths just so far.
Um,
so,
but I think listening might not fully grasp just how careless,
um,
and ignorant the people in charge of this process truly were.
Um,
can you recount for listeners a story you tell in the book about what a couple of Doge staffers said to you after most,
most employees at the agency had been placed on administrative leave?
Sure.
Um,
that it wasn't until after most of the employees were paid placed on administrative leave or fired that I was given the opportunity to explain what we even did in global health.
So I just gave a quick overview,
um,
talked about the infectious diseases that we've worked to stop our work to help save,
uh,
newborn,
uh,
newborn babies and mothers,
um,
and,
and a few other of the just top line highlights.
And it was,
I was kind of met with a stunned silence from the leadership of USAID.
At that point,
um,
and the chief of staff of the agency,
um,
kind of like looked at me and said,
wow,
I had no idea you did all that.
When I think of what USAID did in global health,
I just assumed it was,
you know,
abortions.
What is your reaction in that moment?
What,
what,
how do you even address a comment that ignorant by someone who's supposed to be the chief of staff at the agency?
It was very difficult to decide whether to laugh or cry.
I knew I didn't want to argue with him,
um,
because I knew that wasn't going to get me anything.
It didn't get me anywhere.
But,
um,
it would,
it just betrayed this extraordinary level of ignorance.
And to think that these were the people that had made the decision to get rid of all of our staff before they had any idea what the work was that the agency even did was shocking.
Yeah,
truly shocking.
So there was this moment where Elon and the boys come in to USAID.
It's clear they're going to destroy some parts,
but it's not clear yet if they're going to like completely upend the entire agency.
I mean,
they got rid of what,
like 83% of all programming and folded that into the state department.
Um,
and so before USAID was,
was fully gutted,
you decided to author and then released to the media,
some memos about the impact to become a whistleblower.
Can you tell listeners sort of what you put in those memos and how you made that decision and whether you think it made any,
like,
did anybody read your memo?
Did anyone rethink what they were doing?
Well,
so what I put in the memo is that there were three memos.
The first was to describe everything we had tried to do to restart our life saving,
saving programs,
which was something that a secretary of state Rubio had promised was going to happen as they tore down USAID.
But yet they didn't let us restart any of our programs.
And in fact,
they stopped us at every possible turn.
So that was the first memo.
The second was about how they decimated our staff and really just traumatized the workforce for the about six week period in which I was responsible for global health.
Um,
and then the third memo documented what the impacts were going to be of the cuts to USAID,
including,
potentially up to 2.6 million lives lost per year and tens of millions of mothers not being able to receive emergency life,
life saving care and numerous other other issues.
Did it didn't make a difference?
Well,
USAID was still destroyed some of the contracts that had been terminated that were necessary to do our most life saving projects were actually restored in the few days after my memos were released.
But,
that was about it.
I had kind of hoped that this would light a fire under Congress or others to be able to like shed some light on exactly what was happening there.
But unfortunately,
the end of the story is not a happy one.
Yeah.
Marco Rubio is real villain in my view,
because,
you know,
he was once a huge supporter of USAID and its work.
Um,
in fact,
I've heard you say in other interviews that people at the agency were a little bit relieved when he was named secretary of state because,
his record suggested that he understood USAID, he understood the value
and that he might support it or protect it.
Why do you think he completely turtled on this
and reversed himself?
And like, what's your take on Rubio now?
Yeah, I mean, he certainly did not live up
to the estimation that I and other staff at USAID
had thought we were going to get,
which was a longtime staunch supporter
of foreign aid and development.
Instead, we got lies.
We got Rubio saying that no one has died
as a result of the cuts to USAID,
which was just blatantly not true.
And he went further and blamed the USAID career officials
for being insubordinate for not restarting programs
that his own team was preventing us from doing.
And look, maybe he got lost somewhere
in the connection between the waiver
that he allowed to restart life-saving programs
and when that was not allowed
to actually be implemented by Doge.
But this is the problem when you hollow out
an agency of all of its expertise
and replace it with completely, you know,
incompetent and unknowledgeable and unqualified buffoons.
There was this chaotic period, right,
where like Trump takes over,
Elon comes in, Doge goes to USAID first.
There's like a freeze on programming.
Then they say, oh, life-saving stuff will continue.
Then it's clear that that's not happening.
Like, now that you have some time and space
from that period of time, was the chaos lying?
Was it people not?
Not really knowing like what the left hand was doing
to the right or like what was happening there?
Like, what was all the competing statements
and the confusion and the kind of bullshit
that was coming out of the Trump administration's leadership
in that period?
Yeah, I mean, certainly there were lies
and there was cruelty to an unbelievable degree.
But I think the thing that people maybe underestimate the most
and maybe what has the most relevance
for other agencies perhaps is the level of sheer incompetence
that we saw.
These were people who were not just unknowledgeable
of global health or international development.
They had really no idea how government even works.
And frankly, they were really terrible managers
of people and projects.
So, you know, they had been tasked
with an unreasonable assignment to dismantle,
you know, an agency that delivered foreign aid
over six decades.
And you can imagine things are going to go wrong
with a project like that.
And when they inevitably did,
the people who were in charge just had no idea
how to fix those problems
and ended up just making things worse.
It was a lot of like table smacking
and yelling at each other
and not understanding what was happening
because they had already gotten rid of most of the experts
that would have been able to help them do it.
Ah, that's a, yeah, great way to run a railroad there.
Get rid of all the people who understand the building
and then try to dismantle it.
If you had like two minutes in an elevator with Elon Musk
and that period to explain to him what he did
and the impact it had on the world,
what would you tell him?
You know, somebody said that the image
of the world's richest man killing the world's
poorest children is not a pretty one.
And I would like, I would love to convey that
because I do feel like the destruction of USAID
had nothing to do with improving efficiency
or fighting waste or realigning foreign aid
with some, you know, the new president's priorities.
This was the, the just destruction of an agency
for the sole purpose of satisfying the ego of a billionaire.
And it's something that I'm still quite angry about,
as you can probably tell.
Yeah, I can only imagine.
I mean, I'm sure like waking up every day
to read these insane tweets
from this like ketamine addled monster
who seemed to just take glee in harming the agency,
upsetting employees, being an asshole.
It just must've been horrifying.
Yeah, I mean, there was a day where I think he tweeted,
he tweeted over 40 times between like three and four o'clock
in the morning about USAID.
And this was on a Sunday night.
And on that Monday morning,
there were some of my colleagues were asking me,
is it safe for us to come in the building?
I mean, he's calling us criminals.
He's calling us a ball of worms.
He's calling us evil.
And, and, you know, I didn't really know what to tell them.
I mean, the good bureaucrat I was, I said,
well, we haven't gotten guidance to not come into the office.
So we should still come.
These were kind of the, my, my normal tendencies
that, that I had to fight against.
And what took me so long to decide that it, there was,
there was no way that I was actually fulfilling my oath
as a civil servant to be doing what I was being told to do.
And that's why I eventually felt like I needed
to stand up and say something.
Yeah. I mean, it's hard to remember back to those days
where he's essentially accusing USAID of being
like a criminal organization and evil.
And I mean, just the, the vindictive nature
of the attacks was, you know, shocking and baseless.
So let's just look forward a little bit.
A lot of voters genuinely don't want to spend
U.S. taxpayer dollars overseas,
whether it's on a war or development.
They think it's a waste.
You've probably heard all the kind of isolationist,
nationalist arguments against foreign aid
or foreign spending that can frankly be really convincing.
But I do think some of those people could be persuaded
by national security arguments in favor of foreign aid.
So in your opinion, what are some ways that destroying USAID,
is hurting our national security now
and making Americans less safe?
Yeah. I mean, the, the, the, there's several ways.
The first is specific to infectious diseases.
And that's the one that keeps me up at night
because I think the shortest term threat is
from a new disease or an existing disease
that we're no longer able to detect coming to our borders
because we are currently flying blind when it comes
to an early warning system that we had previously set
up within USAID to help countries,
detect and treat and, and respond
to outbreaks before there was any chance of them spreading.
And now those systems have been ripped up and we have no idea.
We're basically conducting bio, biosafety
and biosecurity policy by crossing our fingers and hoping.
So that's the thing that, that scares me most.
And what we saw when we would get issued these warnings
to the, the Doge team and the political appointees
as they were tearing it down was just that they couldn't understand.
So when I tried to explain, for example,
that when they froze aid, they froze clinical trials,
testing new drugs for drug-resistant tuberculosis,
that these were our antibiotics of last resort.
And when we interrupt treatment of those,
it allows for the potential development of new strains
of an airborne infectious disease
that we no longer have any antibiotics to treat.
And when I would say that, I told that to, to the,
the leadership at USAID and they told me, they asked me
if I could make Barney style slides to explain them
in a way that non-health experts could understand.
- Barney style?
- Barney, like the dinosaur, the children's dinosaur.
- That's, who, who are those for, for, for Trump?
- I guess, I don't know who they were for.
I mean, it certainly, it certainly was for nobody
that was going to be making rational decisions
about national security.
- Yeah, that's unnerving.
I, I, I'm trying to imagine what a Barney style briefing
about drug resistant tuberculosis looks like.
I don't want to watch that show.
I could tell you that much, not with my kids, but okay.
Continue, that's horrifying.
That's an awful image.
- Yeah, so, so that, that's sort of the,
the most immediate threat that keeps me up all night.
The longer term, you know, USAID was the embodiment
of American generosity.
And I think it really, it was preserving partnerships
in ways that are done so much more efficiently and effectively
than you'll ever see from what can be run out
of the State Department or the Department of Defense
when we try to lead by coercion and the use of force.
I mean, I think it was General Mattis
under the last Trump administration said that
if you cut foreign aid, you're going to need
to buy me more bullets.
And I think that's really true.
President Obama said that for many people around the world,
USAID is the U.S.
And I think that's right too, because a lot of people,
they, the only engagement that they ever had
with the U.S. was through the generous support
that we offered them under the banner
of from the American people.
And I'm, I'm afraid of what's going to happen in the world
where that no longer exists and they don't have that image
of the United States.
- Well, no, luckily everything else is going really great.
And we have kicked off
this catastrophic regime change war in Iran.
We had the president tweeting, you know,
praise Allah on Easter and insulting all Muslims
and all Christians at the same time.
So I don't, I don't really know what could go wrong there.
Okay.
So again, looking forward, like you,
you couldn't put USAID back as it was,
if you wanted to, right?
Because all the infrastructure and partnerships
and expertise it's gone.
And there's just no way of kind of like fixing that.
But the next Democrat who,
who wins the presidency is going to want,
I imagine some sort of reformed updated version of USAID.
Do you have a sense of kind of a back of an envelope,
kind of sketch of what that might look like?
Or also are the, is there anyone like,
a group of experts out there somewhere,
kind of trying to rethink USAID for that next iteration
that hopefully we could get through Congress
or get done and get back running?
Yeah.
I mean, I actually maybe am more optimistic than you.
I believe that USAID could be rebuilt
and not that difficult in not that difficult of a way.
And I, and frankly, I think it should like, again,
let's not think that it was torn down
because that was a good idea or that it wasn't working
or anything like that.
The reality was, as I mentioned,
And it was torn down by people who had no idea what it actually did.
Um, the, the, the, the, the counter argument is to keep it where it's now being tried to
fold into the state department.
And I think that's a problem for several reasons.
First, I think it ends up having, um, you know, for the same reason that we wouldn't,
uh, just suggest combining the state department and the department of defense, which are two
separate pillars of foreign policy.
So too is development, which is a third, uh, critical policy, uh, a pillar of, of foreign
policy and, um, we're already seeing what them trying to run, um, foreign aid out of
the state department is major problems because of that tangle as they try to, um, kind of
shoehorn it into their transactional diplomacy, where they exchange the idea of HIV treatment
for millions of people in exchange for access to critical minerals, for example, which is
just, it really kind of defeats the purpose of everything that we've learned about how
development policy works and builds partnerships.
Over a year.
So that's one piece.
The second is, as I mentioned earlier, having, having an independent agency that is the,
the, the face overseas of American generosity is symbolically important and that flag and
that logo of the handshake and the for the American people, I think is important, um,
for projecting, uh, American goodwill and generosity overseas.
And, and I think that that on its own has, um, has value, um, for personally, I think
I, I find that folks who, who say, well, you know, it's over, USAID is done and nothing's
coming back.
It, it, that it's kind of like a lack of boldness and a lack of creativity, um, that sort of
allowed USAID to collapse in the first place.
And so I'm, I'm hoping that the next administration, um, even the next Congress is looking forward
to boldly taking on the rebuilding of USAID.
And I think it's something that is not a hard lift.
I think it's very popular.
Um, overall.
Yeah.
I think it's, I think it's very popular.
I don't understand what it is, right?
It's less than 1% of the, um, of the federal budget goes to, goes to foreign aid.
And with that amount, we've saved 92 million lives over the last 20 years.
So I don't think it's a, it's a hard sell.
I think it's just does require the political willpower to, um, to say, look, this is what
we want.
And there are ways to make it better.
It doesn't have to be exactly the same that like, there are some valid criticisms of USAID
and there are ways that we can use this opportunity to make it less, um, less likely to foster
dependency over time, more likely to partner more closely with local organizations, um,
have a little bit more flexibility in the earmarks that, that Congress has set for us
so that we can address overarching problems rather than kind of stay shoehorned.
There's tons of ideas that I would love to talk about for anyone who will listen.
Um, but where I stand is.
We need to rebuild USAID.
All right.
Well, let's hope, uh, that, uh, others in Congress share your optimism.
The book is into the wood chipper, a whistleblower's account of how the Trump administration shredded
USAID.
Nick Enrich, thanks for doing the show.
Thank you so much for having me.
Thanks again to Nick Enrich for doing the show.
And, uh, I have a feeling that we're going to be talking to you before next week, guys,
because Wednesday maybe is a deadline still.
We don't know.
JD Vance, peacemaker.
For war.
Yeah.
Yeah.
And maybe JD will go to Pakistan.
That's a long flight for JD Vance.
Well, also like the security requirements, like it was dangerous for our diplomats to
be in Islamabad.
Not a safe place.
Like I can't imagine what goes into, I mean, you want to talk about cost of war, like the
cost of securing JD Vance in Islamabad has got to run into the tens and tens of millions
at least.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Uh, okay.
Well, that's about it.
And, uh, let's talk soon.
By the way, I love Trump.
Like I salute you, chief of general staff of Pakistan.
Like it's so cool.
Fucking war criminal general.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Thanks for your help.
State sponsor of terror.
Like, you know, LT, like, you know, like, anyway, I'm sure the Indian government loves
that.
Yeah.
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The Iranian political system is deeply divided, with the IRGC (Revolutionary Guard) wielding real power and resisting reforms, making negotiations unstable.
U.S. threats and social media claims have escalated tensions, leading to Iranian retaliation and a breakdown in ceasefire talks.
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