Speaker 1my thesis is that crypto has been in a bear market i think that now we are going into crypto's first real bull market it's the world's biggest casino having a baby with the world's biggest social network i said all asset markets will be 24 7 365 it'll be 100 billion agents trading at a frequency that you can't even imagine it was like it was built for the machines i think we now have the most exciting opportunity in the
Speaker 2world token 2049 singapore the world's largest crypto event returns to marina bay sands on the 7th of 8th of october on stage will be myself jeff yan from hyperliquid shane copland from polymarket and the real vision community gets 10 off tickets claim yours using the link below see you there so quickly before we get to today's show this episode is brought to you by pith pith network is the fastest growing financial data company today trusted by fidelity investments the u.s department of commerce revolute calci jane street coinbase and many more they provide real-time financial market data across over 3 000 equities commodities crypto fx rates and again a lot more they're the first and largest provider of 24 7 financial indices and offer the widest array of market data for the lowest cost so go to pith.network to take advantage of their free trial join me ral pal as i go on a journey of discovery through the macro crypto and exponential age landscape in the journeyman i talk to the smartest people in the world so we can all become smarter together ram good to see you my friend nice to see you again ral i know i was just i was just with you the other way around yesterday and uh and then we got you here today it's been a while since
Speaker 1you've been on you had a you had a great chat yesterday it really inspired me i actually made a show about our chat yesterday before i released the actual show of the chat
Speaker 2so there's no pressure on you now you've got to be interesting charming good looking all the things that i did for you you have to now do that
Speaker 1for me you know it's so funny because we clip all our shows and we try and find the best clippable moments for every show so usually i get the clips file for a normal guest i get the clip file and it's like you know five or six clips i got your clip file today ral it's like 40 videos it's like 40 little clips of these and each one of them is a perler each one of them are like i listen to till the end and i listen to till it's not going to get me into trouble though is it no not this time around we're not late enough in the bull market to get into trouble yeah
Speaker 2it's still early it's true that's true it's like the psychology of these markets is ridiculous how do you deal with it because having the audience i mean personally we you know we're sort of used to it now we've all gone through the ups and downs as we talked about last time you were on but it's it's just like it's just like it's just like it's like taking a whole audience's emotions on your shoulders it's not easy so
Speaker 1you've got to have a really really thick skin and you've got to have a lot of conviction in your thesis in the first cycle i took it really personally but i also did like some slightly i would say less than responsible things so things that are completely normal for a normal person um if you're in the public eye are seen to be irresponsible like you say hey i'm buying this and the truth is you are buying it but the fact that you don't say hey i'm buying a little bit of this or i'm buying this as part of a balanced portfolio or something like that so you learn to be a little bit more responsible and then um you also learn not to give a shit you learn that you know you have an opinion and you don't need to be apologetic for your opinion um my as long as your opinion is well researched i think the one thing i've done pretty well over the years is i've learned to have a very well researched opinion so if i if i reflect on my life of what i do every single day i'm surrounded by a team of researchers and i probably have about 10 of i think a bunch of best researchers in crypto and all day long we just research and talk about crypto we make portfolio moves along the way and then what we do is like every day we switch on the camera and i literally tell people everything that i've learned in the day and what the portfolio moves that i've made for that day is so it becomes almost like a reality show where i teach everything that i've learned every single day and i'm not learning on my own i'm now learning with a bunch of really incredible people and now there's an added dimension where the really incredible people have got claude and and and chat gpt and that makes the the our level of learning has been absolutely exponential it's like i cannot believe how dumb we were a year ago and how smart we're getting now and i know i know it's just the beginning but do
Speaker 2you think we end up with an edge or are we on a hamster wheel of having to do more and more and more that's kind of i'm not sure about it i think there is an edge by being an early adopter but everybody has access to this it's insane so
Speaker 1for me for me one of the the ways that the only way that i know that i have an edge is is is the the net asset value so let's just call it the the portfolio
Speaker 2your pnl is what it is well
Speaker 1yeah so so we have a from for me i index it as a net asset value um and when i say net asset value specifically in the crypto world and to be honest the highest point of my net asset value in crypto was in at the end of 2024 it was that peak bull for and ever since then it's been low and actually to be honest in my opinion we're very very very early in the crypto bull market and my net asset value in crypto is the highest that it's ever been so it just means that we've selected the correct tokens in in this in this beginning or this or the bear market which now became the beginning of the bull market and then i asked myself okay how did we do it so i mean i think the one way we did it is we really have our finger on the pulse and we know like we know we know the paychecks are going to be going to be going to be going to patient's heartbeat. So we know when the heartbeat's out of sync, we know what it is, and we know if that's an opportunity or danger to get out. I also think that we've had a great thesis for the cycle. And I think our thesis is really playing out. And then I think, to be honest, AI tools, like we really use a lot of AI tools. A lot of our research is done using AI tools. And because of that, we can find runners. I'll give you like one very simple example. When Robinhood Chain launched, we ran a whole lot of AI models to tell us who could benefit and who could lose. Just very basic things of like who could benefit and who could lose. And we found one sitting duck, which was Arbitrum. Arbitrum, for those people who don't know, is the technology that Robinhood Chain is built with. And they get 10% of Robinhood's revenue. And using AI, we kind of picked up what their revenues would be. And we translated that back into a buyback program and then a price. And we had a lot of conviction in that right now. Without AI, to be honest, I think there's probably a 10% chance we would have picked up that trade. With AI, it became like a really obvious trade because we knew exactly what we're looking for. We knew what the prompt was. We gave it a universe of things to check. And that gave us an unfair advantage. So I think that AI, if you're not using AI today in the crypto environment to do your research, then I think, to be honest, I think you're falling really far behind.
Speaker 2So I'm going to go through this in detail, but let's, because I think- I think this is really interesting for people. But let's start at the top, is what is your thesis?
Speaker 1What is my thesis? So my thesis is that crypto has been in a bear market. I'm not sure what the cause of the bear market was, but it doesn't really matter what the cause of the bear market was. I think that now we are going into crypto's first real bull market. Now, I know people may say, how can you say that 2017 was a bull market and 2021 was a bull market? Actually, I don't think they were. I think calling, I think 2021 a bull market is the same as calling 1998, 1999 a bull market for internet stocks. And to be honest, I don't really think that you can call that a bull market for internet stocks because there was not a single internet stock actually being used. There was no real use cases for the internet. It was just a bull market on the promise of big things to come. And I think that if you think about crypto, we've had a bull market in 2017. In fact, I think if we go, I think the best way to look at this is to actually call up a chart. Or to call up a few charts. And actually, let me call up one or two charts just to paint it for you. So for me, the charts just tell a story, right? So, I mean, that's the Bitcoin chart. Everybody knows the Bitcoin chart. You know, you had 2017 bull market, then you had a long bear market, then you had 2021, you had the bull market, then you had a bear market, and then you had this last bull market, and now we've just had a bear market. And it looks like we're out of the bear market and we're going into a bull market on Bitcoin. I think Bitcoin is relatively exciting, to be honest. When you think about the debasement trade and all the macro stuff, I think Bitcoin is relatively exciting. But to be honest, I think this is crypto's first real bull market. Now, I'll show it to you in two different charts. And I think you'll really understand these charts, right? So the first chart is this chart over here, which is the ETHBTC chart. So this is the this is the chart of Ethereum versus Bitcoin. And I think it tells a story. And I think it lets use Ethereum as a proxy for all major. I can't believe you don't use log charts.
Speaker 2This is driving me insane. I do.
Speaker 1I actually do. But for this, let me. I use the log chart on this. Yeah. So for me, this is ETHBTC. Yeah. For all intents and purposes, let's call this all use cases for crypto that are not stable store of value money. So let's just call this a proxy for all. All smart contracts.
Speaker 2All smart contracts.
Speaker 1Well, yeah, all use cases, because that's really. All the use cases for crypto, right? Yeah. So what we can see is we launched in 2016, 2017. We had the whole ICO boom. That failed because that use case wasn't a real use case at the time. We had another big push in 2020, 2021, which was the DeFi summer. And again, that was rejected and went down because it wasn't a real use case. It was too slow, too expensive. The yield wasn't actually real yield. It wasn't sustainable yield. So that market actually collapsed. And then you kind of look at this and you say, nine years later, nine years after the first use case of blockchain was created, other than smart money, which was smart contracts, we've had a little bit of a breakout in this chart. This is on the ETH BTC chart. Now, what does that tell you? It means that after nine years, there's a product market fit that actually makes this chart break out. Or there are multiple product market fits that actually make this chart actually break out, right? So for nine years, we didn't actually have a use case. We experimented, we rejected, we had a second experiment that was rejected. And now finally, we're breaking out. The next chart that I look at is this chart over here. And this chart over here is others. Versus BTC. It's quite funny.
Speaker 2I look at all of these charts myself. This is exactly what I'm doing.
Speaker 1Yeah. So this is exactly what I'm looking at. Others against BTC USD, which is, so that's the chart. This is the top altcoins. And I actually want to make this chart smaller because I think this is where the whole thesis actually comes together, right? So. I'm still not using a log chart.
Speaker 2I mean, you're just such a rebel.
Speaker 1You're such a rebel. Okay. So others, the top altcoins, excluding. The top 10. So this is a smaller altcoins against BTC. Again, 2017, massive move up, rejected, no real use case, ICOs, let's call it shit coins, et cetera, et cetera, rejected. 2021, DeFi, DeFi summer, decentralized finance, the whole application, again, rejected. But ultimately, if you look at it against Bitcoin, there's an upward trend. And that upward trend basically says the use case of this technology, all other use cases, except for Bitcoin, is getting slightly better against Bitcoin. Okay. Now, let's follow both of these charts because I think this is where the story actually comes together. And this is, you asked me about my thesis. My first thesis is that this bull market is going to be led by altcoins. So yeah, Bitcoin's exciting. Maybe it'll do a 2X, maybe it'll do a 3X, maybe it'll get to 250, maybe it'll get to 360. Who knows? And to be honest, who actually cares? My big thesis is that after nine years, the ETH chart has had a breakout. At the exact same time when the other altcoins against BTC is bouncing off a trend line and starting to move up. Now, let's just say hypothetically that we follow this pattern over here. And we, hypothetically, we go like this and we say that this chart does this and I don't know, whatever it does along the way. And eventually we find ourselves over here. Okay. That's pretty much how I see this cycle playing out. Okay. And now it's not really that different from any other cycle. If you look at that cycle. What the altcoins did against Bitcoin was a 9X return against Bitcoin. If you look at this chart over here, at this cycle over here, they did about a 6X. And if you kind of take it from here to here, it's about a 6X. So it's not like abnormal, but the numbers are much bigger. So then you say to yourself, hold on a second. What would cause this to happen? What would cause the altcoins to outperform Bitcoin by such a big deal? by 6x on such a big number and it actually comes from this chart over here and what this chart is telling you is that crypto after nine years has found product market fit and i think that there's two places where crypto has found product market fit one is exciting and the other one is i mean much bigger than exciting it's something we can't comprehend so i think maybe let's start off with with the the use case that's actually exciting right um i think the use case that's actually exciting is the first breakout here and that is the tokenization of everything so yeah everything is getting tokenized stocks bonds commodities everything is getting tokenized getting put onto chain and that's relatively exciting yeah
Speaker 2because that in in the end you know we built excess capacity of block space and now finally we're going to fill that block space with a lot of stuff so i
Speaker 1think that when i when i joined crypto and i joined crypto in 2014 i think crypto was a solution without a problem and the the reason why i said is because it was always like why do you need a token for that the big question when when i came into crypto was you don't need a token for that you don't need it and everything we said was you don't need a token for that and everyone likes it like treated tokens if they were a bad thing today i think as you wrote in one of your essays everything is going to be a token because it's a single use case a single use case token so we're now tokenizing everything and putting everything onto chain and everything becomes tradable so computing power all of a sudden becomes tradable um asset stocks become tradable commodities become tradable and they all become tradable on chain but the one use case that crypto has found which i don't think anybody realizes yet is a combination of two things it's the world's biggest casino having a baby with the world's biggest social network so imagine i don't know the world's biggest social network instagram twitter having a baby with the world's biggest casino okay that's the first use case that that crypto has found why if you think about why um why people go to the casino the casino is a cheap dopamine rush you go there in your head you pretend that you know the reason why you're drawing an extra card when you draw the extra card and it's a low card which is exactly the card you wanted in your head you justify that you had a thesis and you had a formula and that you were right and therefore you're a genius and that gives you a dopamine hit so now the formula to get dopamine is actually quite a simple formula you have to have a motivation you have to do work the work has to yield a result and then you have to get some kind of gratification and when that happens you get a dopamine hit for now if you think about what dopamine is dopamine is probably one of the world's most powerful drug hormones so it's the self-validation hormone it's the one that tells you you're a genius and you're right and that's the the first so we go to the casino we we're we're geniuses because we knew exactly which card to you walk out of the euphoric the reason why you walk out of the euphoric is you're so full of dopamine because you've done the work you've put in you've put in the work your work is right you've got self-validation it's it's incredible social media networks have exactly the same dopamine loop right the reason why we like social media we tweet something we've done the work we think about it we do the work we tweet and then we just watch the likes go up and that's the validation okay so that's great there's no bigger validation though than actually making money so when the pnl goes live and everybody sees your pnl going live very important your pnl goes up and everybody sees your pnl go up it's like it's almost like your twitter like counter was your self-worth net worth calculator so what is crypto created it's created a world where you can trade almost anything when you trade it not only do you get social validation because most transactions are transparent and people can see exactly what you're doing which is why apps like pump fun and fomo are having such big success but also you keep getting this dopamine hit because not only are you making money and getting external validation you're getting the money validation as well now which social network today has a validation which is not only likes but actual net worth actual personal scoreboard right it doesn't exist now what crypto has created it's created the ultimate social network for trading which has never been available before right it's never we didn't have the the rails or the infrastructure for the social media the social networking it's the most addictive thing in the world and i believe that most trading that is not going to be a social network for the social media but it's going to be a social network for the social media and i think if you look at apps like fomo and pump fun they've got the v1 of that and prediction markets will feed into this as well it's a formula you've got to do it's not about guessing you've got to do work so you can justify to yourself why you're a genius you've got to get a scoreboard right you've got to and then you've got to get self-validation so the validation if it comes from the outside is so how did i how did i stumble onto this in one of the bull markets i went on vacation and i went from being in a crypto bull market to having to spend having to spend time with my family in a holiday type environment and the problem is that nothing was happening on the markets it was a very quiet period in the market and what i found was so what did i do i got really bored and then i started to learn a new language i started learning arabic for what okay and then i realized that what my body was craving it was craving the the motivation achievement reward right and so i went and learned a new language on vacation because i was i was starved of dopamine and then i stumbled onto what's going on with us here in crypto most the reason why we're in crypto is actually because we do research number goes up we feel like we're geniuses it's it's a drag it's a hormone it's a drag that's it's a and also just so
Speaker 2people are aware the reason why you also pick up on this stuff is your background was advertising and advertising is is behavior yeah exactly
Speaker 1Exactly. So I used to do this for a living. I used to monitor why people make purchase decisions. And I stumbled on crypto. The biggest use case in crypto is validation and reward. And with crypto, the reward, the validation is transparent and the reward is monetary. Likes are great for social credibility, but it's ethereal. It's not real. If your like meant a dollar, it would be worth. Correct. It would be good. Correct. And now it does. And now it does. If you look at apps like FOMO and Pumpfun and whatever it is, they're the most addictive things in the world, right? I'm going to ask you the obvious question is, is this a good thing? I think that, yes, I think it's a very good thing. I think trading is going to become a lot more transparent and it's going to become a lot more addictive. So if you think that trading is
Speaker 2addictive now. But 85% of all retail traders lose money.
Speaker 1Yeah, but I mean, yes. You can say that. You can say that. But you can say the same thing. You can say the same thing in a stock market, right? In a bull market, everyone makes money. They don't last the bear market, right? But I think that all trading is going to start, all human trading is going to become social trading in some shape or form. So because it's going to become more transparent, everything's going to be on chain. Therefore, everything's going to be more transparent. The results are going to be published almost real time, which they're not currently published almost real time. So it's going to be more transparent. They're published in quarters. It's not going to be like that anymore. It's going to be it's going to be if you think of what FOMO app is today, which is probably the biggest dopamine engine I've ever seen. That's, I think, what what human trading is going to be like. So the first use case for crypto, in my opinion, is tokenization of everything, trading of everything 24 seven by humans, but at the same time, giving them this magic combination of a casino and a social network, which we've never had before. We've never, ever, ever had before.
Speaker 2We have on the Real Vision platform a very similar idea where you post your trade ideas, people can vote on them, you see the P&L, how it works, leaderboards, all of that stuff. And it works well.
Speaker 1Actually, I've got to show you this. I've got to show you this because I'm not sure that a lot of your viewers have seen it because it's very, very, very degen. But let me actually. Which one's this FOMO? FOMO. I don't know if people actually have seen the FOMO interface.
Speaker 2Yeah, I've not used I've not used it. I've heard a lot about it. I haven't used it because I just don't short term trade. So but it's interesting to me.
Speaker 1The it is the most addictive thing that you've ever seen in your life. The the amount of dopamine that these guys have have engineered is it's it's actually who's behind it. I actually interviewed them. It's they were six people until not so long ago. Look, I'm not doing a shill for their product because, you know, let them do the shill for their product. That is FOMO. And I just want to show you how this thing is engineered for dopamine. Every single one of those badges is when people have bought. OK, so, you know,
Speaker 2on every top exactly the same on Real Vision, by the way, you have a leaderboard. Yeah. And where people buy it, we've got the same on Real Vision.
Speaker 1Yeah. So there's a leaderboard here of who's made Avi Feldman's made three hundred and eighty three thousand dollars today or whatever else for every token. You can see what the big buyers are for this person. You can see exactly what his entire portfolio looks like. So it's completely transparent and it is a dopamine machine. The alerts, the feed cannot. It's much more addictive on an app. It's made to be app first, not desktop first. But there's a feeling of every trade that gets taken by big people, by small people, et cetera, et cetera. It's the ultimate dopamine machine. Now, what I think is going to happen is ultimately most trading is going to be a derivative of that platform. And it's going to be about dope. It's going to be a social network slash investment casino, which is going to be the ultimate dopamine machine. And we're going to be able to trade anything you want. Twenty four, seven, three, sixty five. And you can only do that globally. You can do it on blockchain rails. I mean, that's that's the first use case that that crypto is found. That use case, in my opinion, doesn't take us from here all the way to here. And I mean, just to give you an idea, a quantum here of the numbers here. If Bitcoin goes to four trillion and this goes seven times, we're talking about a thirty two trillion dollar market cap, which is about I mean, I'm not sure what the market cap is today, but you're talking about a ten times bigger market cap than we currently have. Right. So how do we get the market cap? How do we get the market cap to be ten times bigger than it currently is? And then that's when we go into the universe, which I believe is not even humans. It's it's the agent narrative. And I think we've spent a lot of time actually discussing it. Funny enough, I want to show you something. It's a discussion that I've had for so long. But in the bear market, I was really struggling to make content. I was I was dying. I've got to be honest. It was a very, very, very brutal bear market, specifically for people like us who I mean, I make a daily show. And I just want to show you just quickly. I mean, you know this, but I think maybe the audience aren't as as aware of of, you know, as a content creator, specifically what I do, I make daily shows. I make them five or six days a week. And if you look at what happened in this bear market, it was it was a really demotivating bear market from the from 1010. It was just down and down and down. It was bad news after bad news after bad news, which is great. But then we had a period from February of nothing to August. But then we had a period from February of nothing to August, where Bitcoin was in a range of between 60 and 70,000. Nothing happened. And we were making content every single day. And when I got to about here, which is the end of July, I got to breakpoint where I gave up. No, I didn't give up. I was going to give up on the it's the closest I've ever been to giving up on crypto. When I say giving up, holding my investments and not making my whole life about crypto. And then at that point, and I'm talking about like, this was probably the low point of my career. This was like the I'd been battered all the way down here. My community had been battered. People hated crypto. People hated us because we were in crypto. The stock market to make it worse, the stock markets were running. Yeah, this this bear market was extremely bad. Because the stock markets were giving people outside returns. No, they're giving them AI type returns. The Cospi was doing five X's and crypto was going down and down and down and down and down. And exactly at this point, which I think was probably the lowest point that I've been in crypto. I actually tweeted this. And I said, here's what I don't think you're seeing. It was more me tweeting to myself. Yeah, I said, all asset markets will be 24 7365. All markets will be settled immediately on chain. Humans won't be trading them. Instead, it'll be 100 billion agents trading at a frequency that you can't even imagine. And all those fees will be captured by crypto protocols. And that tweet pretty much kept me kept me in crypto. Like that tweet and the thinking behind that tweet kept me going right through to to pretty much Yeah, I was the same at that point.
Speaker 2I would just zoom out and say what's actually happening here. Every bank, every financial institution has said they're going to move on chain. Stable coins have been shielded by the Treasury Secretary of the United States saying it's going to be a $3 trillion market. And here's us lot going, oh, crypto is going to be awful. I'm like, same as you is that the outcome has to be asymmetric from here.
Speaker 1Wildly asymmetric. Yeah, I think that's the problem. Because you're so close to the wood, and I was very close to the wood every day. You know, the problem is that when you're doing a daily show, when you're watching a market daily, the move between 64 and 65,000 becomes a story. And the move between 65 and 66 becomes a story, right? Because we're so close to the wood. Most people look at 60,000 and then they log back in at 70,000. And then to them, it makes a whole lot more sense. But sometimes we're very, very close, which is an advantage and a disadvantage. Anyway, now the thesis is, is that we're going to move on chain. It's clearer than ever. And, you know, you asked me what my thesis is. I think it's maybe coincidental that today the BlackRock report came out. And in that BlackRock report, they basically confirmed, I think, my thesis and your thesis. So for me, the thesis is that up until now, the NASDAQ has had a run. And when I said the NASDAQ, the NASDAQ being a proxy for everything that's AI. You know, you've got the data centers, you've got the chip companies, you've got the energy companies, you've got whatever it is. And that NASDAQ run has pretty much been everybody building the infrastructure for AI. Great. So we've built the infrastructure, we've got the frontier labs. And what is this whole thing about AI? AI is a bunch of agents. That's what it is. Like everyone, when they talk about building out the infrastructure for AI, they're building the infrastructure for a bunch of agents. Fantastic. That's what drove the NASDAQ vertically. That's what drove the Cospi vertical. That's what drove world markets vertical. Great. They built the infrastructure for AI. They built the infrastructure for a bunch of agents. So that the agents could do what? So that the agents could transact. Great. So they built the infrastructure so that you could have all these agents who eventually transact. And I kept asking myself, who is going to be the benefactor of the transactions? And I tried to, I mean, I convinced myself that it was blockchain. Why? Because agents are going to meet on the internet, wherever they meet, they meet in, I don't know, I don't even get what you call it. And they transact and their transactions have to be, they're trustless, because I don't, my agent and your agent don't know who the owner of the agent is. It's got to be immediate settlement. Because if I want to make an API call, you've got to let me call that API, get the data and pay you absolutely immediately. It's got to be, so it's got to be trustless. And it's got to be immediate. And I kept saying to myself that the only way that I can see this happening is blockchain rails. but I kept asking wherever I went wherever I went I kept asking people how are these transactions going to happen because I needed someone to say to me it's not going to happen on block on blockchain rails and even like last week when I was in New York I went to one of the big summits and I asked people I said I was one of the big developers I said please tell me my thesis is wrong tell me that these AI agents aren't going to use blockchain rails to conduct all their transactions and he says they're not and I said well what they're going to use and he says well what do your kids use when they do transactions and you got to set limits for them and they're not allowed to go on certain websites you give them a prepaid debit card and he says one thesis is that AI agents will use some kind of prepaid debit card with limitations where they are allowed to spend and not allowed to spend and stuff like that and when he said that he said prepaid debit card and I just thought no just a bunch of smart contracts about where an agent can spend and can't spend and what the parameters and a wallet preloaded and a wallet and a wallet and some kind of proof of identity if or or credit score if required and then I started to do research into the number of agents I was like okay well how big is the workforce in the world today so the workforce in the world today is 3.3 billion somewhere around there let's just call it for our numbers they reckon there's going to be I mean I think I saw a number earlier today I don't know if it's how accurate it is but it says here there's going to be 1 billion transacting deployed agents by 2029 and I would
Speaker 2take the over on that number 10 times 10 times I would take the over but hold on
Speaker 1get this they're going to be executing roughly 217 billion transactions a day okay so take the over take the under I would take the over on it 100 times but we've just seen
Speaker 2that meta muse thing and they integrated immediately with Shopify's with PayPal with everybody it's like
Speaker 1okay yeah and so what are these agents going to be doing they're going to be taking over on that number 10 times and they're taking over on that number 10 times and they're taking over on that number 10 times and they're agents today we today we know agents as I give you a question you give me an answer I give you a task you give me the solution but the new economy is actually every agent interacting and paying each paying each other a minuscule minuscule fee for the service what's the service maybe it's an API call maybe it's a data call maybe it's maybe it's something we don't we haven't even been able to work out yet but it's little micro transactions and as this is 217 billion of them per day right now again I've challenged myself a million times to try and come up with who the custodian of that is going to be and this morning BlackRock published a report and they basically confirmed what I've been suspecting where they basically said to actually quote them they said something here which which I think was this is the buzz line here they said at the core of this convergence AI and digital assets both arise from common foundations so they go to they say the rise of agentic AI and machine-to-machine payments will likely increase demand for blockers and blockchain rails existing rails such as ACH and card networks support substantial automation although the onboarding requirements and settlement economics make them less suited to always on low value transaction requiring programmable execution basically in that line what they said out with the old financial system and in with with blockchain and that was like for me the cherry on top where I made the show I actually made the show today and I was like I've been waiting for confirmation of my thesis I've known the thesis is right everyone's been telling me that the thesis is right but when you read a report like that and BlackRock basically confirmed exactly what you've said I think we now have the biggest the most exciting opportunity in the world and I actually woke up this morning I said I tweeted I said we're in the most exciting opportunity in the world and again I'll show it to you with a chart and this is a really basic chart but it's just showing you the purple line is is AI returns so AIQ returns the the uh the other two lines are crypto returns you know and they diverged on on 1010 this was the infrastructure for all the agents that eventually are going to do payments using these rails so up until now you can say the infrastructure has been built for all these agents the frontier models are building you know if you've used grokbot I think grokbot is probably the best representation because I've got like 10 10 bots inside my grokbot I mean on on my on my I've got like 10 10 agents doing stuff and I know that they're going to transact and so the infrastructure that was built with this chart is was made for the transactions that are going to be that are going to take place on these charts and then from that point on it just becomes I know for you it's a very very broad selection so for you I know it's a you just want to own the very broad rails but for me it actually goes into which altcoins are going to benefit the most I want to get into that process
Speaker 2so you've laid out your thesis which I completely agree with I wrote my whole agent thesis about a year ago and I wrote my whole agent thesis about a year ago and I wrote my whole agent thesis about a year ago about all of this and it's it became so fucking obvious that this is almost the purpose of blockchains it was like it was built for the machines exactly you see that we see the whole financial system coming on board we see this rise of speculation we see the rise of prediction markets we haven't even started with identity we haven't even done any of the web three stuff yet that still is going to come on chain in time so it's like yeah I get that too I don't think there bear market in terms of the full cycle, I feel like it was a mid-cycle. And that, like you, I think there's potentially a longer and more dramatic move to come. I think you're talking
Speaker 1about Bitcoin. And for Bitcoin, to be honest, I mean, I say I don't really care. A lot of my wealth is in Bitcoin. I'm very bullish on Bitcoin, the asset. But you're referring to Bitcoin bull markets and Bitcoin bear markets. I don't think crypto altcoins have had a bull market yet.
Speaker 2No, they haven't, because even ETH has been in that bloody triangle, that wedge pattern for five, six years now. So I agree.
Speaker 1Let's define a bull market not as prices go up. Let's define a bull market as companies and protocols actually make revenue. So, I mean, you can define the 2000 bull market around an internet bull market. In my eyes, that wasn't a real internet bull market. It was the promise of the internet bull market. And I think with crypto, we've had the promise of the crypto market. And I think with crypto, we've had the promise of the crypto bull market. But I think now we've actually got protocols that are making a million, two million, three million dollars a day in bear markets. And you know, you take like PumpFun, which is, I mean, PumpFun is the most ridiculous protocol for people to launch meme coins. And they're making between one and five million dollars a day, depending on the day. Okay. Now you're starting to talk about crypto protocols that are actually making real money, right? Hyperliquid, you know, making, it's hard to say, but five million a day, four million a day, three million a day, depending on the day. So you finally got real use cases that are actually working in crypto that are generating revenue. And so I think that this is crypto's first real bull market. And again, you can say a bull market price is going up, but I'm saying price is going up, technology being used, revenue actually being generated. That is for me a bull market.
Speaker 2What's hilarious is it's almost like a record low for VC investment because everyone gave up on the applications layer and the applications layers come through. We've had some really big use cases, whether it's polymarket, whether it's FOMO, whether it's hyperliquid, whether it's, you know, we're seeing an applications layer being built. Okay. I want to move on to the next bit. So we've got the thesis. Now you talked about the process around the research. So now you're trying to find the opportunity set within the thesis. So talk me through how you do that. So a quick break in your regular programming. If you're serious about your future, grab my free report called Prepare for 2030. I think you've got five years to make as much money as possible. And this guide will help you navigate what's coming. The link is in the description. Download it now.
Speaker 1So first of all, yeah, I say this is, I think, where my investment style and your investment style diverge. Why? Because I'm, you're much more macro and you're playing much bigger macro trends. And I'm looking for the opportunities inside. So the first thing is, to me, you've got to ask yourself, when is a token valuable? And the answer of when a token is valuable is, it's got to have network effects. And for those people who don't know what network effects are, even though I'm sure that everybody at Real Vision must know what network effects are, because I think you're probably one of the first people that taught me about network effects. But every user has to add value to the network exponentially. Now, tokens become valuable when there is a network and there's scarcity. So the fact that there's no scarcity and tokens can be minted forever and the token supply is growing as fast as the network, it doesn't really matter. It only matters when there's scarcity. So the first thing is I look at, the first thing is, is there a network? And again, let's talk about hyperliquid. Is hyperliquid a network? Yes. Why? Because every user adds liquidity to the network. And therefore, the more liquidity you have, the more people are going to trade on that network, right? The quicker you can get in and the quicker you can get out with the least slippage and the broadest range of positions, that is, liquidity is a network. Trading is a network. So the first question becomes then, is it a network? Is the network actually growing? So yes, you could have network-style tokenomics, but is the network actually growing? So once it's a network and the network is growing, you say, do they have real revenue? Yes. Great. Then you ask one last question. And the last question is, do they have real revenue? And the last question is, One second, last question. Do they have a mechanism? to transfer the value back to the token holders if the answer to that is yes great but be careful if the answer to that is no probably the best token opportunity that you've ever seen so let me explain to you what i mean there's a network the network's making revenue and they find and they find a way to reward the users for the value everyone knows the value of the network right because all they do is they forecast the rate of growth of users they forecast the revenue and they forecast how much of the token everyone's going to buy back and burn example hyperliquid they buy everyone's now forecast that hyperliquid is going to buy back and burn three four five million dollars a day depending on the market forecast they divide that by the number of tokens in circulation and therefore they get a metric for for for the value of hyperliquid and we'll talk about the metric in a second if they do don't yet have a mechanism to return value to the users currently those are the most undervalued tokens so in crypto the terminology is do they have a fee switch fee switch means a switch that returns the fees back to the users so right now those are the best opportunities in crypto protocols that are networks growing in users making money but haven't yet determined how they're going to give money back to the users so if you forecast and you say i believe that they're going to give money back to the users so if you forecast and you say i believe that they're going to give money back to the users so if you forecast and you say i believe that they're going to give money back to the users so if you forecast and you say i believe that they're going to give money back to the users so if you forecast and you say i believe that they're going to give 50 of their revenue back to the users and you've got a smart way of forecasting how they're going to give revenue back to users then you have an edge so what am i the best tokens that i've bought are i bought a token recently called a collector crypt it's called cards essentially in a nutshell what they do is they take pokemon cards they put them into a vault a real world vault and they give you a token representation of the pokemon card okay now you may think that that's nothing but a token a pokemon card is a real world asset and the token is a representation of the real world asset on chain which allows people to trade i'm giving you a very simplistic representation of what they do right now the velocity of the trading becomes 100 100x what it is they're accruing 100x more fees than if people were actually trading physical pokemon cards now they haven't yet worked out how they're going to re to pass that back to the user and the reason is because there's no sec clarity yet of what they're allowed to do and what they're not allowed to do best opportunity in the world because people haven't factored in that they're going to give the fees back to the users that's an opportunity so the first so so do they have you is it a network is the network growing is there real revenue and then is there a way to give revenue back to users that's the first class of tokens the problem with tokens is though that people value tokens and this is what i'm working on right now which we by the way we haven't cracked yet but i'll walk you through how we're thinking about it so the first the only way that you and i know how to value assets companies revenue generating assets is you take the revenue they make and you multiply it by multiple and divided by the number of shares that they have that is how you value your share right you say what are the total number of shares times that by the share price that's the fully diluted value of a company right great so everyone takes that valuation into crypto and they say well you know if there's a billion tokens outstanding right and the value of the token is three dollars that means that the fully diluted valuation of the protocol is three billion dollars mistake and that's one of the biggest mistakes that people make in crypto because they don't understand crypto right you compare coinbase to hyperliquid okay coinbase has i don't want to mislead the user so let me actually give you the number here and this is what i'm spending probably 80 percent of my days doing right now because i know if i crack this formula the price is huge so coinbase have a market cap of 52.4 billion dollars which means that if you take the number of shares times the share price the value is 52.4 52 billion dollars yeah hyperliquid so this is hyperliquid they have a 20 billion dollar market cap but an 89 billion fully diluted so if you take all their tokens times the price it'll give you 89 billion but there's only a 20 billion dollar market cap now this is what where people get things wrong they take a valuation of a share and they try and import that to crypto there's a fundamental difference when you have a share all the shares or most of the shares are tradable in the market and there's a price with crypto it's not like that firstly a lot of the the tokens may not be in the market because programmatically they're not in the market right like if you think about bitcoin there's still a million bitcoin that aren't in the market the second thing is that so so already you've got the market becoming instead of being that big it's becoming that big because these tokens aren't in circulation yet then crypto's got this thing called staking what is staking staking says if you want to launch a token on hyperliquid you have to lock away some of those tokens so that makes the pipe even smaller okay so and then you've got uh other mechanism other mechanisms in crypto which make the pipe even smaller staking etc etc so now what is the the price it's not the fully diluted valuation it's a function of this pipe the tighter and smaller the pipe and the available supply versus
Speaker 2the total demand for the thing and the available
Speaker 1supply in the pipe so with the stock the price the pipe is this big there's no way to make shares scarce you never lock up shares to get benefits or whatever else so shares aren't scarce the pipe's always this big and the water is always flowing buying pressure is always flowing through
Speaker 2this pipe unless they're doing buybacks like the big
Speaker 1tech yeah but that's buybacks is just the company buying back its own tokens and never burn they don't buy back and burn they just buy back and keep it on the balance sheet right now let's talk about what happens in crypto hyperliquid has 90 billion dollars worth of shares 70 billion aren't being emitted they aren't being emitted for the next 10 years programmatically so all of a sudden now the pipe's only 20 big of 20 you have to lock up 50 million dollars worth of hyperliquid to launch a token on hyperliquid and you have to keep it locked up and staked for as long as the tokens listed now the pipe gets really small and then hyperliquid have this thing called the buyback and burn mechanism where they take a percentage of their fees and create buying pressure inside this pipe so to me token valuations are a function of the value of the token value of the pressure inside the pipe so so what do you have to work out you have to work out how how thin the pipe is and how much buying pressure is going to be in that pipe and that's how you work out token valuations at a pr at a certain point in time yeah it is a function of the pressure in the pipe and which which stocks don't have because you you never lock up stocks you never lock up stocks you never stake stocks etc you can't use your stocks to participate in the network
Speaker 2this is also one of the reasons why crypto can be very volatile yes because the liquidity is never enough enough for the demand or the supply i in a bear market there's not enough liquidity so price it goes down more because the free flow is so small so in equities it's a free float so the free flow in spacex is like five percent or ten percent it's ridiculously small um but yes but not but
Speaker 1spacex doesn't have buying pressure uh uh uh uh automated buying pressure nobody it does
Speaker 2it does via the nasdaq inclusion it's it once you put it into an index you kind of get all the 401k month money every
Speaker 1two weeks the same will happen in crypto when we create real indices but yeah correct imagine with every with every space part spacex part that was sold they had to buy back spacex shares then can you imagine with a five percent free float what that equation would look like yeah and so and so you said to me what am i looking for all day i'm looking for pressure in pipes what's the scarcest token with the highest buying pressure right because everyone's valuing these protocols the same way they value companies at terminal point and yes hyperliquid is valued at 90 billion terminal point but today the pipe is only 20 billion thick and there's buying pressure and so that's basically what we're looking for or right now what we're looking for we're looking to find networks which have a lot of pressure in the pipe and if you can calculate the pressure in the pipe correctly or better than anybody else then that's free money in crypto at the moment okay you've
Speaker 2talked about your research process so you mainly focus on these kind of opportunities so these tend to be application layer higher velocity low free float but still a reasonable size not always what size are you looking at within these
Speaker 1so i think um i think the layer one war is largely one so in crypto i think the layer ones have largely been determined i think bitcoin is the layer one for store of value i mean no surprise i think in terms of of the other layer ones i think it's a it's eth and solana have basically won the war when i say eth i don't think eth is one but i think the layer two is on eth the robinhood chains the the um uh base chains i think they're gonna be the winners because they've got the credibility of settling on ethereum and um and they've got the speed they the speed and agility of everything else i think there's two more use cases that need to find a home one of them is a very big prize the agentic l1 hasn't been won yet i think there's a couple of contenders in for that i think sui is is definitely one of them because i don't want to get too technical but it's an object-based language and an object-based chain and that is much more suitable for for ai transactions number one i think near protocol near is is building a lot of a lot of lot of tools it could be solana it could be base so i think the agentic l1 that war has still to be won i think the tradfi l1 when i say tradfi i really mean traditional finance l1 where are the dcc dtcc going to migrate where are the the existing clearing houses going to migrate to i don't think that's been one yet there's a whole lot of contenders in that race but ultimately i think the l1 the block space debate in crypto is pretty much finished right i also think that the l1s haven't found a way to really capture value so if you're a eth holder guess how much value you captured from the robin hood launch and robin hood launch just to give you some numbers in my opinion was the most perfectly executed launch that crypto has ever seen robin hood launched the chain the chain made 50 million dollars in the first two weeks in revenues for robin hood guess how much of those fees he's managed to capture don't know fifty thousand dollars fifty thousand
Speaker 2dollars so i'm going to give you a different way of valuing layer ones that you should think about if i were to turn the plug off the switch off on eth tomorrow how much value gets destroyed and future value all of robin i agree with you all of base all of defy all of stable coins all of digital art the whole financial systems future rails the whole lot now that's a trillion two trillion i don't know what the future anticipated value of that is and it's nothing to do with fees fees are irrelevant they're a red herring in fact in technology fees are a friction and every technology that's ever scaled we've seen fees go to zero in blockchain in order
Speaker 1to keep the lights on you need people validating transactions right and you a lot of people validating transactions in order to do that they need to be rewarded so they get awarded in one of two ways the first thing is token native inflation so that's a bad inflation so if there's token native inflation it's a bad inflation it's the same as government inflation because it means the value of the network is being deflated away um the second way is fees and by increasing fees you would penalize the chain a lot so let's talk about a theorem around your your thesis um it's either going to emit enough eth to keep the lights on and we're going to hope that in perpetuity this can happen or the fees have to be so high that the miners have to be rewarded because the more security in blockchain the more validators you need so security in blockchain is a function to a certain to a certain point of how many validators you've got in the network right that's the the strength of a blockchain that's why the bitcoin network is so big so there is also the bitcoin debate as you know around what happens when bitcoin stops emitting coins now it's only going to happen in 20 years it's only going to happen in 21 something 21 50 21 40 whatever it is but what happens then the fees have to basically fund the network right and then you know maybe they will maybe they won't we'll worry about that in in 21 50 if we're still around um but so i think the layer one model in crypto right now it's working but it's only working because it's subsidized by token inflation at the moment yeah
Speaker 2you see i again i would disagree i disagree with this because if we're right that the agentic economy is coming the velocity of everything goes to the fucking moon agree i agree then then yeah and if you're charging 0.0001 cents for a trillion transactions it doesn't matter okay you know you can make a lot of money from a very low transaction fee i mean there was a great example yesterday i don't know if you saw um you might not have seen it but there was a friend of mine who's a uh digital artist nft butcher he sold using the x money network first time this has been done so people on x money so x he said pay me 10 bucks and i'll give you a piece of art he he made i don't know a million or two million dollars yesterday from eight dollar art and then he's now got this buyback and burn and complicated mechanism for fucking clever but low find it yeah low low prices high volumes he sold
Speaker 1so i agree with you and i think that gentry economy is very very very very soon like i think people talk about i think it's i think that gentry economy is 20 27 20 28 20 29 i don't think it's 20 20 40 i think as the article here said it's you know you're talking about a billion agents by 20 28 or 20 29 it's that's it's it's around the corner
Speaker 2so all of your bets based around this these these basic theses so i most of them are looking for the low free float where demand is i've taken
Speaker 1my bets in the layer ones i've got my bets on the layer ones i've got my bets on bitcoin i've got a little bit of money in ethereum i've got money in solana i've got money in suey i've got some small bets on other ones near protocol being one of them and you just
Speaker 2leave those never touch
Speaker 1those those are savings accounts the only time that i'll touch solana example is if i will i may take some chips off the main chain to fund an application that i think is more exciting than the main chain but i'm yeah i'm drastically increasing my risk profile then right yeah because if i bet on solana i'm betting on a billion experiments that may take place on solana if i'm betting on one app then i'm betting on what
Speaker 2is the percentage ratio between your core holding and your active are they 50 50 or they 20 20 80 which way around so it's a
Speaker 1great question um the question is whether whether or not you include bitcoin so if you if you include no include include bitcoin you see because bitcoin is my store of wealth and my store of value then then you you largely skewing it with l1s but let's remove bitcoin yeah and then i'd say probably right now i am see i've had a great run on zcash and i haven't rebalanced my portfolio so probably right now i'm about 56 now probably about 60 70 percent in l1s but only because because zcash outperformed i took a bet on zcash at 100 bucks and yeah it's not 60 it's 17 times that money yeah and i haven't rotated yet because because i look at zcash and it reminds me of bitcoin 2014 i've got
Speaker 2some zcash as well i got in about 300 bucks or something and it's doing nicely yeah it's it's
Speaker 1exactly bitcoin it's the same people it's the same culture it's the same price moves it's the same issues uh the devs left and then the devs came back and then and then you know like and then they thought there was a hack but actually they were it's i heard all i've watched this video before and i'm watching it again now you know if there's one mistake i made on on bitcoin it's that i didn't accumulate 100 000 bitcoin back in the day when i you know i mean maybe 10 000 bitcoin when i actually could have afforded to accumulate 10 000 bitcoin right and i kind of said to myself when i saw the zcash thing happen i said i'm not going to make that mistake again i'm going to get in early i'm going to put the money down and i'm going to forget about the money but my thesis was sound as hell and it was very very very tough sitting through that thesis two things happened i don't know if you remember but towards the end of last year two things happened the first thing is the devs left there was a big announcement that devs left they didn't they just left one dev company and started a new dev company but that was very scary and that tested the thesis and then the most important thing that tested the thesis was around the potential hack that could have happened right that's right and that was that was really testing the thesis because yeah because it was is there is there now infinite supply
Speaker 2and we don't know because
Speaker 1it's all yes and that's the one that's the one floor that there was in zcash and i say it was that floor doesn't exist anymore because with the new technology upgrade they can actually verify that what's in the shielded pool plus the unshielded pool equals 21 million before they couldn't all they could tell you was in the unshielded pool the non the non um uh shielded pool they could tell you how many there were and how many there should be in the shielded pool but they they could never verify what's in the shielded pool now they can so so now now they can so it's made the thesis a lot more bulletproof um and i'll tell you that sitting through that sitting through that period where there could have been a vulnerability in zcash with a large part of your portfolio in zcash like let's say let's say that over 10 percent of my portfolio was zcash and sitting there knowing that this protocol could have been compromised i mean that was those were quite tough days because again if they were compromised zcash could have gone too close to zero so it was a you know you had to hold with conviction a lot of people ran away a lot of people left they said you know i even remember with all due respect to to arthur i remember interviewing him at that period he said you know the fact that this did happen made me sell all my zcash and i remember and that's arthur and that's arthur he said he sold all his zcash and he's not i mean he's quite astute you know he knows the market and he said look that dent so a lot of people left and i mean we held and that's become a very big part of the portfolio so um so i'd say right now 60 70 percent is in l1s and then okay so i don't consider hyperliquid in l1 so hyperliquid no there's another big position the competitor to hyperliquid called lighter which is um uh the more regulatory they went the more regulatory friendly approach um and the reason why i took a big bet on lighter just to give you some some insight i knew that they were trying to get hyperliquid into the us and that there's an negotiation going on with hyperliquid to bring hyperliquid to use yeah i also know how trump
Speaker 2it was trump or besant who mentioned
Speaker 1hyperliquid it's insane trump trump that was that that was when i doubled down on lighter ironically and it's been one of the best bets that i've made because how does trump negotiate he tells you how amazing your life's going to be if you join him right he shows you how miserable your life is going to be if you don't do what he says and then somehow he and then because you realize how miserable the tariffs are and because you realize so when he said we're going to be bringing in hyperliquid into the u.s i was like oh and what's going to happen in the negotiation he's going to threaten at some point trump is going to threaten hyperliquid with the fact that they're not coming into the u.s and less and then the market's going to panic and they're going to go to the next competitor which is lighter because lighter has gone the more regulatory route in the united states you and that switch i made when lighter was at about 1.80 or something i don't remember the exact numbers lighter is not 5.50 hyperliquid was at about 80 or 70 it's at 100 bucks so that was a very good switch to make um yeah so the majority so where else are my are my bets so again it goes down to the foundations of what is crypto what is crypto crypto is the ability for anyone to create digital value and trade digital value that's basically what crypto is anyone can create or migrate digital you can create digital value from a real world asset you can create it out of thin air you can create digital value and if you can create digital value then you're going to trade it because value is there to be traded so the majority of my bets are actually in the trading platforms very very very few of my bets are in non-trading platforms because i don't really care what application you build whether it's super compute or whatever it is it's all about whether you're selling i don't know chip chips for racehorses i don't really care i know you're going to trade it and i want to be in the places where you're traded and the more leverage the
Speaker 2better okay so let's wind ahead to two years time and rand's thesis has paid off but something else came along that he didn't see because there's always something new in a cycle that you're like fuck i saw that but i didn't see it what's it going to be where is something going to break out in this market that none of us are expecting because it won't be what we know always it'll be something we don't know what do you
Speaker 1think i mean like for me the ai agent thing is so big and it's just just just just just started and i think learning their behaviors and they're trading and they're hedging and they're like everything else um it's just so big that like it's it's enough to occupy it's enough to occupy whatever we're doing times 10 so i must i haven't really thought like way beyond that like i don't know
Speaker 2because don't forget in the past there were there were what were social networks going to do with blockchain what we were going to do with id what were we going to do with like data storage you know there's i don't know there's just to me is i always keep my eyes and ears open to something that is entirely not on the agenda today there's some weirdo in a somewhere who's figured out um and let's see i like to go back
Speaker 1to to core principles and for me core principles is what what is this technology this technology is about the creation of digital value when you have value you're going to let's well you're going to store it i'm not sure that there's much money in in the storage right you're going to send it okay sending is probably the money is probably in things like stable coins algorithm stable coins partially back stable coins the fully back stable coins i'm not sure what that application is um you're going to trade it you're going to leverage it yeah but there's also
Speaker 2other elements there's the it's a database that is immutable that has authentication built into it there is a whole bunch of parts of blockchain that aren't currently used a lot that's why that's in my head
Speaker 1so i'll tell you one application which i think is underused in crypto um um what's the time where you are 208 why
Speaker 2isn't it block 10642
Speaker 1why is it 208 because humans have this thing humans have this this thing of uh of you know we need 24-hour days because we need routine and the sun rises and the sun sets agents don't give a shit no agents for for agents it's one long number of blocks
Speaker 2yeah melton was talking about this actually using the blockchain well yeah so i think
Speaker 1the blockchain clock has got to be the most accurate uh the most accurate clock it doesn't make sense that we talk about dates and times est non-est ultimately we need to talk about about blocks and i think the one underused mechanism around blockchains which i don't think anyone's cracked yet and maybe we're very very very early in this is like if if i give you a loan um when when did i if i give you a loan and i give you a loan on one chain and it needs to be settled somewhere else by another chain through an ai agent and whatever else when did i give you the loan and we're specifically talking micro payments and micro micro micro interest when did i give you the loan so i think the one aspect of blockchains that isn't yet respected enough is the time aspect of it yeah so so so like it it can't be a minute and a second and an est and a pst in
Speaker 2a daily in a dealing room when i was in a dealing room i'd write a ticket because i'm in a trade and i'd have to timestamp it yes now we could change that by you timestamp in advance you do other stuff right but blockchain does something you're right with time and price or time and information or time and whatever that is it's yeah you're it's completely underutilized still
Speaker 1so so i think i think as a log of events put it that way yeah i think we i'm extrapolating a couple of years forward but right now the fastest blockchains have uh i don't know 100 millisecond uh times to finality right um and so their blocks are being mined probably at that speed or maybe slightly faster i think that there's going to be a lot of protocols that are going to be measured in block in in block time and i think we're going to come to a universal block time at some point which is like for example like you think about bitcoin having to transact with eth and solana and you know you're going to have to transact with eth and suey because that's just the way that the the the transaction was settled right when do they settle and so ultimately i think we're going to come up with a blockchain that's just going to be the time i i i i think there's one or two blockchains that we're looking at this but i think one or two blockchains we're going to pay them a minuscule fee just to use them as a settlement layer for multiple so the time across the
Speaker 2oracle for time for
Speaker 1time the oracle for time i think that that use case is probably underappreciated specifically with thousands and thousands and thousands of thousands of chains where you know if if if if microtransactions really matter and you've got to settle them all at a specific time in in microseconds i think the time element of blockchain is is is uh is not well enough respected um super interesting yeah right
Speaker 2final question about all of this because you at the beginning you say said there was three component parts of what you're doing and how you're doing it one was your thesis we've gone through that two was how you're valuing this stuff where you're looking for opportunity and three is how are you using ai so how are you using ai and how's the team using ai is that for building trading models or is it for analysis or is it a combination or is it for scraping for information because people are fascinated by this stuff so
Speaker 1the first thing is we we automated everything so i realized i was running a very very we running a very very uh fat staff business in an age where most things could have been automated and so i took what i did was i took the biggest innovator of my team she's amazing she's the biggest innovator in the team and i said if you want to innovate then the first thing you're going to do is you're going to automate the entire business so that you can free up all the cash that you need to innovate and so she literally went through our business process by process and she said okay what's your your role is to you upload the videos to youtube and and you key tag and you keyword search them great she built an ai agent that does the keyword search the clips so you know the clips that i spoke to you about where i told you that we clip all our content that's all it's an ai we used to hire 10 clippers or five clippers we now have one and he runs 40 twitter accounts and he has one ai tool he'll run this interview what tool is that we built it we built it um it learns how to listen for clips and it clips all the content and it can actually upload them directly to twitter so he runs 10 twitter accounts uh one guy runs 10 10 twitter accounts um so she automated the entire business literally uh the thumbnail how we make our thumbnails now we you can the it's the system auto generates based on on everything else or you can just draw it on a piece of paper with a pen just draw a little thumbnail and just show it to the ai and it'll generate that thumbnail for you in 20 seconds so that took about 20 staff and and made them two two or three so there's two and there's an overflow guy um that was the first thing that we did so we we literally took the entire process and we did it in 20 seconds and we did it in 20 seconds and we did it in 20 seconds and we did it in 20 seconds and we did it in 20 seconds and we did it in 20 seconds and we did it in 20 seconds of our business we looked at the things we were doing repeatedly and we built ai agents and and that's that's now running um we have a thing called the newsroom now what is the newsroom it's we have 50 people that are interested in crypto including all my researchers and every tweet every article that we read we for years we've actually been copying and pasting into the newsroom so if i'll like a tweet from ral and i'll put it in the newsroom and and you'll like a tweet from the fed and you'll put in the newsroom and and bob will like a tweet from nvidia and you'll put in the newsroom and for years we've been doing that like since we started banter we've been all depositing so we took an ai agent and we basically said this is where we scraped all the data in the past um very simplistically we kind of said look uh the more recent ones get a higher score because they mean that they're more relevant to now the old ones get a slightly lower score but basically what we told the ai agent is we said tally up how many how many tweets from each place we recorded based on that that's how how likely we are to want to see the tweets again and now the the that whole uh process is is completely automated right so that there's a bunch of agents that basically populate us with ideas trading ideas alpha etc etc and that that basically is uh is completely automated um so we basically automated all those processes um i'll give you like stupid things like we we do interviews like this so when i interview a guest sometimes i don't know them as well as i know you so you know your content i watch and i know you and i follow you but sometimes you get a guest and you don't even know much about him that process of getting a document takes me about 30 seconds i've got an ai agent it gives me a background who's this person where they come from in fact it's so funny because you know it's a we run the process for everyone and uh i just want to see if i've got the document if i've got yesterday's document for because you were on my show yesterday and they sent me you need to hide the bit where
Speaker 2he says he's a bit of a dick that's the hold on
Speaker 1yeah he's so arrogant and i've got to actually see i've actually got to see if i've got it uh effectively i got i get a two minute in two minutes i basically know everything i need to know about you i get your latest tweets your latest views latest things that you've said on on latest youtube interviews and so i know that within four minutes of reading a document right so that that's basically that and then when it comes to valuing tokens um so we've programmed the pipe in other words look for tokens look for tokens that have high buyback pressure uh high buyback pressure low circulating supplies increasing users i mean that's really basic stuff because everything's available on blockchain and you can actually start finding it so to be honest the thing that i'm working on right now with with a couple of the guys is to try and find to build the perfect formula for pressure so the ai agent can tell us the ai agent as i said one of the the ai agents actually catch the arbitrum trade very early before people really caught on how big arbitrum is going to be when robin hood launched it basically said hold on you guys are missing like there's this we we we found it at a multiple of five and it was like weird and then we like double checked the thesis three or four times it was like hold on a second this is like a real thesis like and then we we traded on it and then that trade yielded us like a five x return because we're just so early to trade because people didn't pick it up so again with arbitrum trade it's like a five x return i'd ai yeah maybe i would have caught it but i probably would have caught it after the run so yeah things like that i mean other things other things which are like you haven't built it you
Speaker 2haven't tried the trading bots yet where it just does takes all of you guys out of the process because that's the obvious thing
Speaker 1we've tried it we've tried it we've tried it to be honest we haven't really had success to be honest you know what's not easy it's really good what is really good in blockchain is tracking wallets so for example tracking team wallets and the minute that the team wallet having agents that track what team wallets the minute a team wallet starts to move tokens that usually has a correlation with price or so you look for specific token wallet movements like i'm not going to mention the name of the protocol but i'm actually watching on my screen here that a team is moving tokens that they probably shouldn't be moving right and we put an ai agent watching every transaction watching because sometimes what they do is they bounce it from one wallet to a second wallet and then from a second wallet to a to try and trick people but we've built a bunch of a swarm of agents that basically watch this kind of stuff so i'm actually watching one now and i mean the price has gone down 10 since we started the show because the team's actually moving tokens around that they shouldn't be moving tokens around so i haven't actually dug into it but i can see the price going down i can see the tokens actually moving so and again i wouldn't have known that if there wasn't a grok bot running here and telling me exactly what what's going
Speaker 2on fascinating so ram where should people find you i mean most people know who you are
Speaker 1but you know i'm on twitter at crypto man run uh i do a show on banter crypto banter and i've got another channel called crypto insider which is where i do uh long form interviews i think probably twitter is the best place because that's the hub the hub for everything
Speaker 2it's the easiest place to find you
Speaker 1otherwise you can find me in cape town you can come and visit me in cape town
Speaker 2yeah i'll see you or i'll see you in singapore and i'll see you in johannesburg and i'll see you in cape town i'll see you somewhere all right my friend good to see you and uh and you're my friend chat soon man this episode is brought to you by pith pith network is the fastest growing financial data company today trusted by fidelity investments the u.s department of commerce revolute calci jane street coinbase and many more they provide real-time financial market data across over 3 000 equities commodities crypto fx rates and again a lot more they're the first and largest provider of 24 7 financial indices and offer the widest array of market data for the lowest cost so go to pith.com and you'll find a lot more information about pith.com and pith.network to take advantage of their free trial token 2049 singapore the world's largest crypto event returns to marina bay sands on the 7th of 8th of october on stage will be myself jeff yan from hyper liquid shane copland from polymarket and the real vision community gets 10 off tickets claim yours using the link below see you there you obviously enjoyed the episode because you're here with me at the end but listen don't forget to go to realvision.com forward slash join and grab a free membership it's an incredible community packed with alpha great investment ideas and the research that you need to help you unfuck your future so get started now go to realvision.com forward slash join
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