AI CEOs Vs Trump, Minutes From Disaster, Swedish Voters In Limbo

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Put ChachiPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects. Get started at ChachiPT.com by selecting work mode, available on plus and pro plans. Never bet against American grit, or American energy. Through innovation, venture global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the world right here in the United States, but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost and a fraction of the time. So while others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's venture global. That's unstoppable energy. Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts, radio, news. This is the BlueBeg DebateQ at Podcast. Good morning. It's Monday 14 September. I'm Caroline Hebke in London. Coming up today, a showdown over a slowdown. AICOs push for greater restraint as Trump warns America cannot afford to come second. European officials miss a Russian drone strike by minutes as a train is hit near the Ukraine Poland border. Plus, the U.S. President mixed his golf with diplomacy as he defends his call for Irish unity despite an uproar in Britain. Let's start with a roundup of our top stories. Open AICOs, Sam Altman has stepped up calls to slow the development of the most powerful AICS systems, putting him directly at odds with President Trump, writing on social media in the last hour, Altman said no amount of American competitive pressure should justify recklessness. The comments come after President Trump played down the need for further guardrails on Sunday. We're leading China and AIC. We're most sophisticated country in the world. And frankly, I want to keep it that way because whoever wins AIC wins. And we can boot guardrails, we can do this and that, but I think you have a lot of negative forces and bringing it up. That shouldn't be bringing it up. And they're bringing up things that won't happen. But whoever wins with AIC wins. Well, in June, President Trump signed an AIC cybersecurity executive order, leaving companies to decide whether to have a new model to review by the government. Trump's latest comments followed anthropic CEO Dario Amidiz call for development of the most advanced AIC. To slow in a three thousand eight hundred word essay, Amidiz warned of catastrophic risks and was endorsed by open AIC, O Sam Altman and SpaceX AIC, Elon Musk. Speaking to ABCs this week, US House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries also backed stronger safeguards. We should take decisive action now so that we can slow down as the CEOs have recently acknowledged slow down the pace of development in order to protect the American people and ensure that AI is proceeding safely. Hakeem Jeffries there. The fight over AI safety comes at a pivotal moment for anthropic as it prepares to tap public markets. The financial time supports of the company expects to be profitable this quarter as it prepares for an initial public offering. Now AI is already delivering growth, but a boost to productivity is harder to see. A global report by Bloomberg economics shows the GDP gains from an AI super cycle are concentrated in just a handful of economies. Bloomberg's James Orcock has more. Bloomberg economics estimates 27% of jobs in advanced economies are meaningfully exposed to AI. Yet so far there is little evidence the technology is causing a broad hit to employment. Instead, the huge sums spent on chips, servers and data centers are boosting growth in a handful of economies. The US, China, Taiwan and South Korea are all seen as macroeconomic winners, but gains elsewhere have been muted. And London, James Orcock, Bloomberg Radio. Sweden's election remains extremely close after Sunday's vote according to the latest data from the election authority. Sweden's centre-left opposition has a slim lead of three seats, with about 94% of votes counted. The block includes the social democrats, centre party greens and left and it translates into 176 seats in parliament. Now the centre-right governing coalition led by Prime Minister Ulf Christensen of the moderates has 173 seats so that in the Swedish election. Brent Crude has topped $108 a barrel after Saudi Arabia shot a major pipeline used to bypass the state of Hormuz. The closure followed attacks on the pipeline as separate talks on creating a temporary shipping lane through Hormuz were postponed. Oman says that the meeting between Iran and Gulf nations was delayed in the interests of consensus. Hassan Al-Hassan of the International Institute for Strategic Studies says that recent escalation may have disrupted those talks. The targeting of Saudi Arabia's east pipeline, healthy advances in Yemen's western coastline, and then the increasingly close coordination we're seeing between Iran-backed groups in Yemen and Iraq. All of these, I think, also create conditions that are not ideal for a substantive summit to produce a substantive and clear outcome. Hassan Al-Hassan, speaking there, while the Saudi pipeline can carry about 7 million barrels per day making it a key alternative to Hormuz. President Trump says that he is removing the 10% U.S. tariff on Irish whiskey following his visit to Ireland over the weekend. The decision follows lobbying from Irish officials and gives producers the same tariff-free access, currently enjoyed by UK whiskeys. It comes after Irish whiskey exports to the U.S. fell by 5% in 2025. Andy Burnham says that Britain needs a culture shift to support entrepreneurs. The Prime Minister is hosting business leaders in Downing Street this morning, including the founders of octopus, energy, revolute, and styling bank. Community Secretary Angela Rainer says that it's part of the government's push to get more people into work. That's his point. It's about actually creating good jobs and re-industrializing Britain, giving young people opportunity to get these good apprenticeships, these good jobs, whether it's in defence, whether it's in the investment in that energy sector, so that that's how you get young people off benefits. That was Angela Rainer speaking then. Other push for more risk-taking and growth comes ahead of the autumn budget when many expect Labour to raise taxes. Europe has reached a milestone in the quest to make its stock market more attractive for investors with the use of a single, unified data feed when it makes it out of buyer has more. For years, fragmented trading across European markets has fed the view that EU has made up of multiple different markets rather than a singular investment venue. Now regulators are hoping that the rollout of a unified feed of prices and trading across its 29 countries will start changing perceptions. The content-wide tape will be for professional and retail investors in a bid to level the playing field between individuals and large institutions. But whilst today's unveiling marks and landmark investors still need to sign up and trust the products, only time will tell whether it can shift perceptions of Europe's capital markets and lead to better outcomes for investors and companies. In London, Tua Adabaya, Bloomberg Radio. European officials, meanwhile, narrowly avoided a Russian drone strike near the Polish border after their train left the station minutes beforehand. The group included the former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and former Swedish Prime Minister Karl Bildt. Polish Foreign Minister Radislav Sikorski says that the attack marks another escalation by Vladimir Putin. It's not just knocking on the door, it's inside the house. It's not just some nuisance on the internet. We've had the arson incidents in Poland. We've had the attack on the Leipzig airport. And we've had death squads sent by Putin to Britain. That was Poland's Foreign Minister speaking there. Now the country's Prime Minister Donald Tusk says that he cannot rule out Russian attempts to disrupt Polish border crossings in the coming weeks or months. And those are our top stories for you today. Looking at the markets now tech. And the next stocks are tumbling because of all of this talk around a slow down in AI. So looking to Asia, the cost bit at the moment is down 2.9% soft bank has also plunged. And the NICA is down by 1% stock futures for Europe on the stocks 50 down full tens of 1% NASDAQ futures taking quite a big hit down at the moment 1.2%. This as crude oil prices have surged, Brent trades above $107 about up by 2.5% this morning. The dollar is strengthening US Treasury's holding at $4.97. Those are the markets. And in a moment we're going to bring you more on the fall out from President Trump's trip to Ireland. And also on the AI race, can it be slowed down? Where are the benefits of the technology too? We'll discuss in just a moment. But before that, something else has caught my attention this morning. Are we at a historic inflection point in Britain? Does cinema capture the zeitgeist before maybe others do? Bloomberg's Christian Lorenzen has been writing about Paul Greengrass's new film, The Up Rising. The Up Rising is about the peasant's revolt of 1381 in the UK in England. It's a film about rulers and those who are ruled, it stars Andrew Garfield in case you're wondering. As a kind of fellow is a compatriot of what Tyler, this is the leader of the rebels, who in the 14th century rebelled against King Richard II for imposing a poll tax or a flat tax on all adults. They marched on London. They got some promises to end Serfdom. Only then, of course, their leaders ended up with their heads on a spike. But historic plot twist, the King did drop the poll tax. But I think that it comes at an interesting moment, as Christian points out, after a decade of popular discontent again here in Britain, a string of political leaders, of course, you know about. So he talks and writes very interestingly about whether Paul Greengrass's film is a kind of cultural hinge point. I think maybe he has a point. I'm going to put a link to it into our podcast show notes in case you didn't know about the peasant's revolt of 1381 or Paul Greengrass. So you can read a little bit more about it. Now, semiconductor shares, tech shares in Asia are reacting negatively this morning. After the leaders of open AI and Anthopic called for AI model development to be slowed, Bloomberg economics has mapped the current and potential economic impact of AI across major advanced and emerging markets to try to get a feel for where it might benefit the most. And Anna Andrade, who led that research effort is with us now, and a good to speak to you. Firstly, though, on this big issue that sort of emerged over the weekend, the essay from Amadei, the issue of AI safety, are AI CEOs really going to be able to slow the momentum of artificial intelligence? Well, they didn't receive a very warm response from the US government. And there's obviously geopolitical considerations to consider in particular the competition between US and China on the frontier capabilities. And I think that can make it hard to deliver that slowed on. But I think all this episode and all this safety momentum that AI is having is also very interesting from an economic perspective in the sense that it shows that the capabilities at the frontier and real world usage can mean two very different things. And it really speaks to two of the hurdles, I think, that may slow the deployment of the technology in real life, which in itself will have big implications for the economy. And those are the reliability of AI systems. Obviously, they've raised concerns about human existence and about cybersecurity safety. But from a business perspective, it also brings its risks. And also regulation, now we're talking about regulation, about the slowdown of a model from frontier capabilities, but there will be other debates showing up around regulation. And just because AI can do a task in a certain occupation, we want it to actually do it. And I just think these are a few of the broader constraints. Others are profitability, they know how of senior management that will probably slow the deployment of the AI. And that should temper a bit, maybe expectations, you know, that an economic revolution and a big bang is just around the corner. Yeah, okay. Well, how much growth is AI actually delivering at the moment in terms of nominal GDP when productivity gains? Because that's been one of the big conundrums, hasn't it, for economists, like you and I about understanding and measuring what AI is doing? Yeah, yeah, definitely. And the answer is not straightforward. I mean, our report brings together analysis for more than 20 economies to assess the AI's economic footprint so far. And outside there are two clear insights that we can draw at this stage. The first one is that the gains from the investment phase of the technology, let's say, so all the money, all the capex that's needed to create the technology are much more visible than any gains in productivity from adopting it, which I think makes sense and it's not too surprising. And then really when you look at the global economy, you see, in terms of those gains, they've been, it's a fragmented and even story. So they've been really concentrated in a handful of countries that we sort of separate in two camps. These are either countries that are home to critical suppliers to the AI infrastructure blooms. So think about ships for Taiwan, South Korea, China as well. And Mexico more recently, for server assembly, or countries where compute demand is racing ahead. So the US is a leading example, but there's been recently, even here in the UK, some signs of AI linked picked up in investment. And then elsewhere, you look at Japan, it has lagged behind these Asian neighbors and really here in the EU, no matter where you look at the exports and trade data or the investment data, it just shows a story of an economy that's lagging behind. Now just two very brief caveats on that, it's really hard, number one, to pinpoint the exact contribution of AI national accounts, because we just don't have the needed granularity. And number two, just because it's showing up on GDP and in investment and exports doesn't necessarily mean that it's contributing on the same scale to the growth impulse. So here in UK, we find that it has contributed to lift GDP by 1% in terms of investment, but you know, that's most certainly an upper range given we have yet to net out the import content of that investment. Yeah, absolutely. And also, part of your work is to look at specifically what AI does for jobs and the worries around whether there's going to be a major impact on the workforce globally. Yeah, and here as well, I would say there's two well two broad conclusions that we can take. One, we obviously rely on an exposure based approach from the academic literature we use AI exposure scores from open AI researchers at the very, very granular level. And with that, we're able to estimate how much of the employment in the global economy is at risk from disruption. And what we find is that for advanced economies, about 27% of employment is meaningfully exposed. If you consider it more advanced, AI capabilities that rises to 50%. So I think the first broad conclusion is that yes, this is a technology that has a very far reaching and wide impact across the jobs market. But then actually when you look at employment trends since the release of JRPT, we actually struggle to find a clear pattern that AI is contributing to, you know, this job box ellipse that has been feared, both here in UK and in Germany, it is not compelling. And I was just saying that, you know, it's still an open question whether this exposure means automation versus augmentation. You know, I think that the debate has sometimes be a bit polarized and we're much more likely to end up somewhere in the middle where, you know, it complements some occupations, it automates others, but it also creates a new opportunity. So that means that a large macro level disruption maybe is not necessarily a given. Yeah, yeah, absolutely. So all of these things must still be monitored. Anna, thank you so much for being with us. That is Bimberg's Anna Andrade there from Bloomberg Economics was taking us through what we know about the impact of AI. This also as over the weekend, this long essay that you can read on the Bloomberg terminal, we've got lots of links to it. By Daryl Amadai, we must pace the frontier. I think this now is really being evaluated. Amadai saying that we must slow the pace at which we improve the capabilities of AI models. Progress will still seem fast and we must make wise use of the time that we gain. But I think the most explosive point that Amadai points to is having embedded evaluators and democratic coordination across AI companies, global coordination across companies so that you actually, you know, slow things down because of all of the risks that Amadai mentions and the things that he's worried about when it comes to AI development. Stay with us more from Bloomberg Debatecube coming up after this. This is the Bloomberg for a tech minute brought to you by ChatGPT. Now with ChatGPT work, I'm Carol Masser. Has the AI moment arrived at corporate offices worldwide? Not yet, and it's perhaps several years away according to one survey of corporate recruiters who circle the world's business schools each fall and spring. Bloomberg's Rob Mandelbaum notes that according to the Graduate Management Admission Council, the skills recruiters sought most among 2026 graduates of business school master's programs, including MBAs, for communication, problem solving, and adaptability, which changed little from last year. Training and artificial intelligence tools ranked in the bottom third of the skills list, but recruiters did say AI-specific training will be more important in five years. On that recruiters rated current graduates as only somewhat prepared or less to work with AI tools and said business schools are not doing a good job of teaching AI skills. Bottom line, according to the survey, what most companies want when it comes to AI skills is for candidates to be able to automate routine work. That's the Bloomberg Tech Minute brought to you by ChatGPT. Put ChatGPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects. Get started at ChatGPT.com today by selecting work mode, available on plus and pro plans. - This dog salon, operational excellence. Thanks to Genius from Global Payments. Scheduling, personalized. Checkouts, instant, absolutely genius. Big League reliability for any business. That's Genius. - It's time to plan ahead and make sure your brand is showing up in ways that can have an impact. That's where four imprint comes in. Four imprint have promotional products that work as hard as you do. Durable, useful, and designed to make a lasting impression. Think quality apparel your team will wear again and again, including popular and exclusive brands. Drinkwear that's enjoyed again and again. 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Livya good morning, what did President Trump say on his visit to Ireland and what has been the reaction in Dublin firstly? - Yeah, so he said he doesn't want to cause any problems, but he would love to see reunification on the island, like you say, between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, which is a UK region. Those comments are quite unprecedented from a US president to weighed it on this, especially because the US was a key broker of the kind of 1990s peace agreement that largely ended sectarian violence in the region between British Unionists who wanted to remain part of the UK and Irish nationalists who still want to reunite with the Republic of Ireland. And as part of those invagations, the US remains a co-garental of the agreement along with Ireland and also the UK. Dublin has kind of tried to downplay Trump's comments. They don't really want to get involved and it's kind of debated this time. There's some very angry British Unionist politicians in Northern Ireland and meanwhile the UK Prime Minister has kind of reiterated on the weekend that this conversation is effectively off the table. - Yeah, so then it also puts the US adults with the UK, as you say, on this historic and very sensitive political issue. What does it mean for the referendum path that is set out in the Good Friday agreement that as you say, the US was instrumental in bringing about? - Yeah, I mean in reality, as set out in that kind of landmark peace agreement, only the UK Secretary of State for Northern Ireland can give the go ahead for that border poll, as it's known. They can only do that when they seriously believe that there will be a clear majority in favour in Northern Ireland to reunite with the Republic. And while an increasing number of people no longer see themselves as just British in the region, especially among the kind of younger population, the numbers just aren't there yet and to put that into perspective if there was a vote on reunification now as Trump kind of appeared to say that he wanted, it would cause problems. Even though he said he doesn't want to cause problems, it would cause a lot of instability and a lot of upheaval across the region. - Yeah, meanwhile of course, President Trump was also there mixing kind of politics with business and personal and politics. He was at the high risk open as well. And at that point at a very important moment, he also gave Ireland a very big trade win in some senses. - Yeah, I mean on this two day visit, he had a little bit of diplomacy in Dublin on Saturday and then the rest of it was over to the West Coast to watch the Irish open, specifically at his resort and he brought a lot of his family over. And yeah, yesterday kind of two great applause on the golf course. He said that he would remove the 10% tariffs that he'd put in place on Irish whiskey. This is a huge relief for the sector. It's one of Ireland's largest indigenous and most historic sectors. And in recent years, it had been already hit with kind of a barrage of issues, including high energy costs, winning demand, increasing labor costs as well. So it's a big relief for the whiskey sector here, but there are still a lot of questions that remain over the 10% tariffs that still appear to be in place for other kind of alcoholic products across the EU entering the US. So there's still less clarity over that, although yeah, definitely a win for Dublin and for the whiskey sector here. And it's clearly something that the Irish government and the whiskey lobby here had kind of been asking for for a while now. So it's definitely a win here, but still questions remain. - Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Daybreak Europe. - If you're enjoying the podcast, give us a follow, leave a rating or a review, and maybe send it to that one friend or colleague who's always trying to keep up with the news. And if one podcast today isn't enough for you, you can also listen to us live every weekday from 6 a.m. in London on DAB Radio, on Chunin, and on the Bloomberg Business app. - Or if you've got a smart speaker nearby, just say, play Bloomberg Radio. - Dog grooming genius here. Most people see a busy dog salon, but I see operational excellence. Scheduling, personalized, checkouts, instant, absolutely genius. From game day crowds to every groomer in this shop, genius keeps everything flowing seamlessly. - Nows are a style. - Flawless execution. That's genius. For imprints, promotional products are designed to work as hard as you do when making a lasting impression. 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