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Affordable Housing Crisis Is Reshaping Everything

39m 49s

Affordable Housing Crisis Is Reshaping Everything

The conversation highlights the intersection of climate change and real estate, emphasizing that denial is not a viable strategy. Bill Bynell and Ben Gelleland discuss how worsening weather, rising insurance costs, and market forces are pressuring homeowners to act. Gelleland explains that many people wrongly assume their home will dodge disasters, but probabilities are worsening. Insurance companies are canceling policies or raising rates, and property values for at-risk homes are declining by about 1.2% annually. Conversely, hardening a home can yield an 8% price premium. The housing crisis is exacerbated by limited inventory, high interest rates, and institutional investors buying up properties for rentals, squeezing first-time buyers. In Hawaii, where Gelleland works, the average home price is $1.3 million, forcing young people to leave. His nonprofit aims to build affordable homes at half that cost using new construction technology. He also stresses that government protection is faltering, with states likely to impose new codes and regulations as federal disaster aid diminishes. Ultimately, a forced migration and remediation effort is coming from multiple angles—insurance, real estate values, and community regulations—making proactive mitigation essential for homeowners and communities.

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the government's got to protect communities. That's their job. But every time there's a storm, the phone rings, people are working so hard to just make ends meet. And it's kind of like, oh god, I don't need another problem. Definitely, definitely, no other expense. People are going to wake up and they're going to start saying, you know, I'm going to think about this. Now, I'm going to have to consider this. Denial is not a plan. What you've got to do is get ahead of the curve and it can work with your cash flow and what's what you can afford. Welcome to the debt doctor podcast where we deliver the definitive prescription for navigating distressed real estate debt. I'm your host and America's most qualified debt doctor Bill Bynell. I spent my career investing in diagnosing and reviving thousands of distressed real estate situations. The debt doctor prescribes proprietary remedies to help you identify, acquire, and monetize undervalued real estate assets. Each episode gives you insider access to the strategy's top cohorts use to transform market volatility into double digit returns. If you enjoy what you hear today, hit the follow button, subscribe so you don't miss an episode. And please share your support with a quick review. You can find me on the web at billbyemell.com. Thanks for joining this episode of the debt doctor. Ben Gelleland, welcome to the debt doctor. Thank you very much. I appreciate that, Bill. I'm really excited for our conversation today because you live in a world that I am deeply interested in. I think it's a topic of climate. It's a topic that needs to be discussed, especially with regard to real estate. Founder chairman, future proof property intelligence. That's an AI driven resource hub that united advanced risk analytics with practical construction remediation that safeguards homes, worsens insurance costs, and strengthens communities. Man, if that isn't written right out of a playbook of something that I'm writing a book about right now, I don't know. Yes. To tell the truth in terms of the story, that is kind of the tip of the iceberg. First of all, you have to start with what the weather is going to do. And all of that's driven by the climate. And a lot of people confuse weather and climate. The weather is what's happening outside the window right now. Climate is what may be getting ready to happen or what has already happened. So it's kind of the foundational layer for what the weather is potentially going to do. And so when we kind of started with this thing, it was originally a, still is, there's still a nonprofit that this was spun out of that started seven years ago by my late wife, which was to build affordable housing for Hawaiian, Hawaiians, because we have, oh, our housing problem is horrible. We're losing 3,000 young people a month that are having to move to the mainland because they can't afford to say. It's just, you know, our average home is 1.3 million. Now, if you think about getting out of college with even a, you know, a BA or a BS, 1.3 million dollars is not real hopeful that you're going to be able to get your piggy bank going. In America, your home is your piggy bank. You're going to use it for your retirement. You're going to use it for your family's education, you know, and one of the things I wrote in a blog not long ago is your home is a direct reflection of you. When you, it's your, almost kind of your alter ego. When you go to pick out a home, you go into a place and you're going, hmm, nah, it's just not me, you know, and then you go on to the next house until you find one that fits, you know, your vibe, so to speak, you know, that it reflects back to you what you see yourself as being. So it's kind of an alter ego. So we got into trying to build affordable homes, which we actually have mastered a system now to be able to build them at half that price, sale price. And we're hoping to get some of those going with over on the nonprofit side this year sometime, because we're also doing with that true new construction technology. Yeah. This is the, yeah. I remember 10 years ago, probably when you guys were getting this off the ground. And by the way, I too am a widower, my wife that's way 11 years ago. So we have a lot in common, my friend lost my last July. Oh wow. Oh, so it's very fresh for you. Okay, well, we can talk more about that offline. I have a lot of advice for you. I can well, well, understand that that has prepped into the. Really, it's about, you know, if there's one piece of advice that I can share and I share it publicly when it deals with, you know, the loss of loved one, especially someone who, you know, you weren't necessarily born related to, but who you chose as a life partner. 26 years. Yeah. It's the is live with the various emotions, you know, for a minute to minute, from hour to hour experience it because it's a way to honor the relationship and also to cleanse yourself and to really be complete with it all so that you can move on and find someone. And I'm sure that's what your wife would want you to do, you know, we actually discussed it. We had a, she had a very long, seven year decline, very rare brain disease. And the last two years, she was actually gone already and consequently, you know, you can say, okay, well, I've got this time and I'm preparing myself psychologically for this end end game, but when it arrives, it has no less impact than if it were probably a week, you know, a day in that sense. In fact, it's probably worse. It's kind of like, you know, it's a slow, low burning psychological torture versus, you know, like cancer, okay, you get cancer, you're probably gone within a couple of years, maybe three years, at least the ones that are really going to kill you, but in her particular case, you know, we went, we went to the end of just take a moment with us. We went into the doctor and we had gone through six neurologists from Boston, Massachusetts to Chicago and nobody could diagnose it. First diagnosis with which was numbness in her left hand. Oh, you have carpal tunnel. She was a professional equestrian. So they were going, ah, okay, you know, you're holding the reins, you know, you're riding all that stuff. So that's probably what it was. Right. Anyway, so we went, you name it. I mean, blue care, exclude body dementia, Alzheimer's. God, I mean, it's like just this litany of what it wasn't. Yeah. And, and you, you know, we grew up in a time where compared to a hundred years before medical technology was very advanced, but the reality is, is there still so much we do not? That's why it's called practicing medicine. You're the second person that said that to me. To me, it's just a logical extension, you know, of, you know, if you're going to call yourself that, then I guess I'll just take your work. I don't want practice. I want the real game. I want you on the court for the fun. This is a championship today. Yeah. I was like wanting miracle cure. That was kind of what my preference was in that sense. But anyway, though, she, you know, she was probably the most forward, pay-at-for-reperson that I've ever known. She took in homeless people, paid for their education. There's people out there now that are full-tender professors as well as, and she took them off the street. Game of job, game of car, paid for an education. Likewise, the woman who was in a serious unwanted pregnancy situation, you know, said, well, what do you want? She said, well, I want the baby. That's great. We're going to have a kid, you know, pays for the education. That, that child two years ago graduated valedictorian and is now on a full full-ride MBA program with five offers from major corporations. And she wouldn't even exist if it weren't for the fact that she paid that for over. So, you know, for her to say, hey, let's see if we can figure out something for the Hawaiian people, you know, with this homeless problem that we've got or rather the affordability of affordability. So, yeah. So we worked, you know, through a lot of different technology. I've got a real kind of, I don't know what the best way to put it would be very to background. I've had five careers. My first one was designing special effects for big-here rock bands back in the 70s when, of course, when kids came on the scene, you know, it was very good for business as one could say. You couldn't just get up there and play guitar anymore, you know, and sing. You had to have production. That's right. You know, that went along with it. So it was a good time for that, which brought me into the computer business and nothing new because I was in Los Angeles at the time. And somebody called me up and we were always looking ways to automate this stuff. We had one show that we had five guys with 10 fingers that all had to push the buttons at the same time in order for everything to happen. So, you know, we were buying little TRS radio, shack, computer things, and building boards to fit with relays to try to get this stuff out of and my friend calls me up and he's saying, we're doing this really crazy thing up here. It's called a personal computer. You know, it's kind of going, well, okay, oh, man, I'm game. I had so my company at that point, so I went on up there and wanted to put, this was the golden era of computers, so everything's in a garage. So we would just drive around the valley and you know, we're gonna, okay, we're gonna see Danny today. Danny's doing this crazy stuff in his garage with blah, blah, blah. And we'd go in there and he'd have it on a spaghetti supper table set up, you know, now watch this. And my partner who had a beard, he was a truly a visionary guy and he was sitting there and struck his beard, you know, and kind of go, you know, look serious. And if he struck his beard one way, then you know it was gonna go good for the guy who's doing the presentation, if it wasn't not so much. But he'd get so excited about some of these things that we saw and he had just crashed out of getting his company bought out by Tom Warner. So he had, he was with us this way. He had taken his money that he got and then he invested it into a bad high T.S. So now he was down to his last $35 billion. Tough times. Anyway, though, so he would go out to the trunk of the car. You know, it was say $50,000 enough? Good. I'll come back and do the paperwork later. And his secretary was just like following the stone little venture capitalist with $50,000. It was, it was angel capital. Angel capital, yeah. Angel capital and that. And so we went up, I'll puttin' up the money for the spelling checker, which is probably our biggest claim to fame. I too have always had a thing for how do we create more affordable living. And you know, it's so funny how this real estate boom has happened the last 10 years. Because most of the majority, far majority of the new construction that has been done in this country has been on the high end of the market. And you know, there really has not been incentives or anything to or any reason or any ability for developers to be motivator for anyone to build to affordable. And it's created this barbell, you know, this go, I don't know what they call it, K shape or barbell effects. Okay. I have it's done that it's not as bad as Hawaii, but it's up there, the other area is Los Angeles. So I have a 32 year old son with who is married three years who is trying to have his first child and they want to buy their first home. And you know, most 30 year olds don't have a couple hundred grand in the bank. He happens to have enough for down payment, but he looks at it like how could I would have a little box for a million two, you know, we have a problem that I think that exacerbates that. It's kind of it stems from yours and mine's generation to be honest about it. In the sense that we've got these homes that are either paid for or in the case of my house in Hawaii, my interest rate is 2%. Now that's free money. Wow. The purposes. So when you look at the fact that my generation can afford to purchase housing at any plateau because when you start talking about the lower price to the market, now you're getting into a situation that's I'm going to buy this rental property. This is going to be investment stuff. It's going to be an Airbnb or a female, whatever you want to, you know, whatever you want however you want to categorize it. But that is taking up inventory. And of course, builders don't build for rental. They don't build for Airbnb's. Those are existing properties that have been around a while. They may remodel and refurbish and stuff. But so there's one slice of the inventory. And that's kind of, you know, that's sucking up a bunch of the air. The second thing is-- So that's kind of the case for what-- Just to-- just to-- I want to hear the other case, but I want to just reiterate that to be clear on the institutional investors haven't necessarily done as any favor. So in the case of like, they've been in competition, basically, with-- or even just mom and pop investors have been in competition with wannabe first-time home buyers. Because-- and this might just be your average, you know, baby boomer that's looking for their third, fourth, fifth property, correct? Well, the baby boomers pretty much are aged out at the point now that they're-- where they're probably will be until they punch the clock. If they move out of these properties, which are paid for, which have appreciated enormously over what they may have paid for at 20 years ago, they're going to be going into something to downsize more times than not. So you're going to see them going into-- if they're not going into assisted living, they're going to be going into communities that are set up for their age group, the villages down in Florida, which is like 5,000 homes. And it's a golf cart community. And it basically caders to that group of people that can pay cash. They don't need credit to do it, which is kind of your second problem, is the fact that you've had interest rates that just make it mathematically impossible. So you start out with the marketplace. It's got a tight inventory. We all know supply demand from Keynes economics. If I don't have enough to sell, that what I've got to sell is going to go for a higher price. So now you have higher price materials. You've got a new construction. The materials have gone through the roof, especially since COVID. Now we've got all these crazy tariffs that are out there on lumber from Canada, even down to cement. Because most of those-- that stuff, we don't mind cement in this country. We make cement. And it comes in, especially things like the Dolanite. Again, it's one of the components in making port on cement. That's coming in from Canada. And you have just similar situations that I really-- and this gets to me into, is there a political will to really solve the problem? I think that you want to hit a wall to a degree with that. It's particularly when you talk about the low end of the market of existing homes. You have private equity that's putting together these billion dollar funds, and we'll go out and buy every piece of real estate that they can get their hands on to put into rental. The rental market is even has a shortage. Because if you can't afford to buy, you're going to have to rent. And so there's a huge demand for rental properties, which again, drops the cost up. And Hawaii for you to have a 750 square foot condo. Now, if you can wrap your head around how much $750 square feet is, that's $3,000 a month. And you're not going to have a family of four. If they are, they're going to be stacked on top of each other in that space, even if it's a two-bedroom unit. So the builders are not incentive to do it. Because if you're-- let's say you work on a 5% margin, that's very generous in your building homes. Am I going to build a home that might be the one for the generation right behind the boomers? Made I be building a home that's ADA compliant, that's what they call aging in place, which I always thought that was a very gentle way of saying old folks home. And as a result of that, these folks are out there, and they are going to build a property that they can make the maximum amount of profit on. This is the same thing that we get into with the issues with climate resilient construction. It's about 5% more. It's kind of like, you have to-- it's supposed to put in five nails in a shingle. You have to put seven. Now, how much do you think an entire roof that needs two more nails per shingle, it's going to run the bill up? But for a builder, let's say that's $120. That's $120 of pure profit for them. There's been no incentive whatsoever. You have a real suppression of what's getting ready to come down the pike. People need to understand that the weather is going to get a lot worse. We've got the data. You can go and you can look at our app Magic Wendow that allows it to time machine, type in your address. See what your house looked like 75 years ago. Go forward to the year 2100. See where you're at. And it's free. And we give it away just on the educational side that people need to know what's coming. The next 20 years, super critical. This is where you've already seen insurance companies pull out of markets. The rates go up to the point of unaffordability. And that sort is actually subdivided now into two more aspects of it that are not getting any attention. One of which is the fact that right now, if you're one of 37 million at extreme risk homes in 17 states that we're looking at, those houses are going down about 1.2% per year year over year. And this is your piggy bank. You just blew a hole right at the bottom of it. And that's what the market-- Market is making decisions to price this stuff in. Currents companies are pricing it in. The buyers in the real estate market are pricing it in. And we see that there's just gonna be really a forced change that you're not gonna have a choice. The weather will get worse. All of a sudden now everybody's gonna come alive and go, gee, all this time I've been placing my bet that it's gonna take a Tom's house down the street. It's not gonna get me. So you're in this casino betting that your home is gonna dodge the bullet and it's just not gonna happen that way. You know, the mass probabilities just keep getting crappier and crappier. And of course when you, there's kind of three legs on that stool. One is the insurance company is gonna get a cancel your price you out of the market. They're gonna force you to have to do something. The second thing of course, like I just said, is real estate price, which by the way, the inverse of that, if you harden your home in one of these areas by doing the mitigation to your house, you actually can get as much as an 8% premium over a price value. So you've got both an upside and a perpetual downside. And the last piece is the government's gotta protect communities. That's their job. So the story goes. And if in fact they are doing that, which they're waking up to this, since the federal government's pulling out of really helping you in these disaster situations, then they're saying how state's y'all can take care of that $8 billion worth of burnt down housing there in palisades or eating or whatever the other case may have to be. And so you throw that economic load onto the states. They don't have any choice but to pass new laws, new codes, new regulations. Basically having to say, you have this period of time and you're gonna have to do something to your house because if your house burns, it will potentially take agnuses down and it will take Tom's house down. They go along with it. So they're gonna have to pass regulatory situations to protect the community. So now you're getting it from the community that you're gonna have to remediate. You're getting it from your insurance company. You're gonna have to get it from the real estate value on your house. So it's gonna be a forced migration, so to speak. It's going to require a new infrastructure to be able to handle it. If you don't, Yanny, you can just say, well, we have $22 trillion worth of real estate there. We can just, let's just say we lose 10% of it. That's $4.4 trillion. That's a big chunk of money. And it just continues to compound as we move forward. - It's so interesting because, I call it climate volatility because for some reason, climate change is a political, hits people, triggers people. And the reality is like you point out, the market is self-dictating, self-pricing, and it's really the insurance companies and the insurance costs or the insurance abandoning certain markets that is having a huge impact. And I think it's, I equate it to like the frog and the boiling pot, so to speak. - I use that metaphor all the time. - Yeah, absolutely. - And we don't realize the last, I mean, you just have to look at the data that now has been shut off as of this year. But it still exists in the archives of NOAA that in the last five years, there is a very distinct increase in the number, frequency, and size of multi-billion dollar weather events in this country. And it's been consistent. So now that's what's had the paradigm shift for insurance companies, that's what's caused prices to go up. And that's what started this snowball effect that you point to. What's interesting is there are certainly portions of the country and that you point to, you know, a number of markets, I think it was 17 or something like 17 states. - 17 states that contained the vast majority of the risk. But the reality is the four states in 20 years. - Well, that's what I was gonna say. So that it used to be that it was really contained to just a few states, I think, that would have major risk. - Hostel. - Now you're seeing it everywhere. And I think that is what climate volatility does, is it brings about weather events in all different countries. We've seen the tornado alley has now become a tornado plane. - We have two, we have two alleys now, two people. - Right. - It's not a freeway, right? - No, it is. Well, you've got the southern version of it, which is now called Dixie alley, which is going through Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, et cetera. And then you have the old one that we had that was Oklahoma, you know, Missouri and that tornado alley that was up there. But it's, and who would have thought, this is one that I always bring back around it, you know, people were going, would you ever thought that Asheville, North Carolina is going to get hit by a hurricane? Really? - That's a big sign there. - Yeah. - That's really a sign. - And that's just a sign of exactly the type of volatility that we can expect more of. And it's, this is not being alarmist. I'm not trying, I mean, like, listen, we're not going to turn off driving cars. You're not going to be able to turn off our addiction to fossil fuel because it drives everything. However, we're the only country in the world that has made this a political issue or a matter of opinion. The facts are what they are. The scientists from not only this country, but every country on this planet agree that we are, whether, no matter how it's caused, whether it's through long-term cycles, or man-made, or both, which is my belief, it's both. - Yeah, I think we're definitely contributors to it. - Oh, of course, absolutely. You know, and we need to take the steps to mitigate it. And that's what you do, right? - Yeah, well, our whole thing is, we, first of all, we kind of stepped back and we were looking at the housing. And we were saying, okay, the insurance issue, the real estate issue, the financial mortgage issue, marketplace, all of these guys are in this interconnected system that we've put together. If you don't have insurance and you have a mortgage, you'll go into foreclosure. You're going to foreclosure, then you can't, even short sell your house because your house is uninsurable because of its location. You know, nobody's gonna buy it and even bulldoze it. A guy with cash is gonna go in there and say, oh, well, I'll buy that property. I don't need a mortgage. Yeah, we should get in there and want some insurance on your money still. You know, that's just kind of part of the plan. But, you know, our view of it was is that we're carbon agnostic, we're policy agnostic, we're people, pro people. We see that nobody is in this sector that, you know, I tell people all the time that some days I feel like Paul Revere, you know, I'm basically riding my horse through town saying, you know, the climate is coming. Anyway, and stuff that goes along with it, the weather is coming, you know, and I'm going, oh God, I hope people listen to the message. So I'll have to die. And then I have other days that feel like John the Baptist, you know, and I'm just crying in the wilderness, you know, and the more people I talk to, the more people I'm saying though, are starting to get it. And, you know, and I just say, you know, don't listen to all the junk. Just look out the window. Okay, if you live in Tennessee right now and you just got 30 inches of snow, when was the last time that happened? Okay, and that just goes on and on and on. And so we have to stop saying it's just a series of freak accidents and acknowledge that it's a pattern that will continue. - Yes, well, our forecasting right now, we're about 60% accurate for the next 20 years. We'll film the stuff that we get from IBM, which we have this proprietary data that we folks stand on housing. So we can look at your address and kind of give you what's going to happen with the community. And for the next 20 years, pretty much pretty accurate. And of course out from there, as you get closer to 2100, it drops off. But even at that, if you, it's kind of like I've, somebody was asking me where are the two worst places in the country as we move forward. You know, that's kind of, well, that's kind of a trick question in a way that I'm just going to tell you. The first one was bluehole Texas. - Okay. - And in bluehole Texas, it basically, when you go out 50 years, the ambient average temperature is up 12.5 degrees. Now it's 105 at the peak of the summer they're already. - Wow. - Now you can do the math. That's 120, 117, 120 degrees. That's beyond the capacity of life to, you know, we're very fragile as creatures. I mean, we live in a very narrow band of survivability zone. Anyway, so that was kind of the first one there. And then the one that was actually number one is Riverside, California. And it's got it all. We got fire, we got landslides, we got floods, we got earthquakes, you know, what would you like? We got them all. - Really? - Anyway, though, so it scores the highest, and our, because we score risk, when you go look at the app and stuff, it comes up and it says, you use on all these seven, what we call the seven deadly disasters, you know, we give you a score on each one of those. Oh, you're seven for fire. You're like a six for, you know, flood, et cetera, that can be. as long with that. So what we're trying to do is first and foremost, if you honest, wait forward information about your house, and then what we're trying to do that nobody else does, there's other companies that provide this data to their insurance companies. You know, and there's some of very big, very big actuarials and analytics companies, and they provide all of that stuff to them that says, you know, if you're in this zip code, you may want to consider not writing anymore policies where you're going to need to write policies that are going to cost these people a whole lot more money. But that's it. They stop at the door. And what we're saying is that don't present people with the problem again. First, we had 1.5 Celsius, and it was the apocalypse. You know, and everybody just said, well, can I do anything about that? So I'm going to, you know, Darlin and the another beer. I'm going out in the yard playing with the kids. You know, and that's, you know, and it's understandable. I mean, you know, if you know, if everybody just keeps giving you the gloom of doom and all the bad side, then, you know, you're basically going to get, you know, numb. You need to be able to give people actionable solutions. And that's where AI comes in. You couldn't have done this with what we've done, you know, without the AI. - Interesting. - And in this particular case, where we started out with this was focused on the home. So we can basically take our tech and your phone and walk around the building. It looks at the house, so to speak. And then it builds a 3D twin of your house and its mind. And then we apply reengineering. We take the house apart. It also, in addition, looks to, it knows the dimensions and how many windows and stuff. It also knows what it's made out of. It knows if you need to paint it. And we're getting that technology from the video, who we just was just revealed to the public earlier this month at the CES show. And so, you know, we're, you know, in private suite and looking at that. And it's kind of like, this is amazing. I mean, just, you know, they had a drone footage. They flew around the house. 20 seconds later, they've got a 3D model to scale of that building just from flying around it with a drone. And we had been working on this already, using LiDAR and in a partnership with Apple, you know, to be able to do it that way. You know, but of course, you know, these guys are really super genius in that sense. So they saw a need for being able to do that in so many different applications. And for us, it was, you know, it was kind of, oh, that's great. And then they are also giving us the, what's called comfort chatbot. So this is kind of where, you know, it will guide you through walking around the house. No, it's okay. We need to go over here and we need to look at where the gas meter is. You know, we need to walk around here and be able to see the back of your house. Oh, you know, that lawnmower and gas can you have pushed into the wood deck, probably a good idea to move that because you're in a pharsa, you know, and just similar sort of interactivity with the bot, so to speak, to help educate you on what you're doing. So, you know, we've focused in on the house in that sense and then you got to be able to do something about it. So the system then can generate a complete set of plans, budgets that are based upon zip code averages for that kind of work. And then you can either push one button and it'll take you over and you do it yourself and you can buy a report that gives you all the materials and labor man hours by category and we'll plug you into a people like, you know, Home Depot, they'll help you get those materials to do it yourself or we'll refer you over to a contractor who works your area. But probably the, where we really try to complete the circle and the solution is we're doing a green bond fund to be able to loan you money at below rates just to do that work. Can't fix your kitchen, you can't buy her refrigerator but you can harden your house. And now, guess what, you qualify for these discounts from the insurance companies, which are by the way, mandated and approved for the insurance commissions. These are just not something that are, you know, oh, we're running a special like Chipotle, you know, on another super burrito or something, I'm sure you've been a jump through the system. Yeah, I've never seen those kind of sales on insurance. That would be fun if we started to see that. Well, what we're hoping is that the incentive comes back from the insurance company because they have a problem. They've got a very serious problem. If you understand how property insurance works, you have a risk pool. What you want to do is sell the policies that are, you know, and everybody's money goes into the risk pool. You say, oh, great, you know, we're going to have to hold back 80% of this. In the case we have claims. And then the other 20% we get to play with that in investing. And that's where our shareholders or our mutual holders get a profit back, you know, and that's kind of how it works. Right. So when you start having too many claims, now you're tapping into the profit side of the business, which means that you'll lose money. And if you lose enough money, it's called being insolent. Right. And then you basically got nothing left to talk about. You know, that's the end of the road. I would think though that these insurance companies, but most insurance companies are in pretty good shape unless they've made bad investments. That said, you know, they've lost money in property insurance for four years in a row. Yes, correct. The last couple of years, they definitely lost money. That is another conversation we have got to come back and bring you back for. This has been a fantastic conversation right in line with my new book called The Storm, which is coming out this spring. We and I need to talk more often. People, the app that you're referring to that anyone can download is called Future Proof, Magic Windmill, correct? That's correct. It's on both Apple and the Android Google Play stores. It's free. I just downloaded it as we're sitting here, actually. Yeah. If you and it's a time machine, it's really fun because you can also click around. No, it comes up with yours or us, but let's say you've got your grandmother lives in Peoria. You can go click on grandma's neighborhood and see what's going to happen there. See what's going to happen there. Any bold predictions for this year, because I know you are dealing, you are very much a macro man and what you and your late wife have done for our society is phenomenal. I admire you and acknowledge you. We need to talk more often. Is there anything this year that you have as a bold prediction or anything that we need in line with the climate thing or maybe something else? I don't know. I think this is going to wind up being a year of awakening. What we grimly have to say when we're in marketing meetings is that every time there's a storm, the phone rings, and that's a sad thing. But at the same time, people are working so hard to just make ends meet. It's like, "Oh, God, I don't need another problem." Definitely, definitely, on any other expense. I think what we're going to see is people are going to wake up and they're going to start saying, "I'm going to think about this. I'm going to have to consider this." Our mantra is denial is not a plan. What you've got to do is get ahead of the curve. Because if you know you have a problem today, you don't have to do this crash program. Maybe you can do it a little bit at a time. You just get rid of the tree that's hanging over your garage. It can be really simple and it can work with your cash flow and what you can afford. As opposed to now all of a sudden, it's almost like one of the disaster movies where they're saying, "Yep, the comments coming in, we're going to see if we can deflect it. We're going to send Bruce Willis out there." Maybe he's going to send it. No Bruce Willis in real life. I think that what we're striving toward and working with people is like yourself, Bill, is that you have a level of awareness now and you're trying to get the word out. And like that Paul Rivera metaphor that we were talking about earlier, the more people that we have that are singing from the same hymnal and what we're trying to do is print the hymnal. What we're saying is it's not just the disaster side. It's a solution. It's a pipeline. And we see this as a method that can go global. Because we all have to go and find the solution. Inside the solution, new economies and new profits and new things will be created. I hear seven, we've project $720 billion a year. But we can only save 80% of the property too. It is what it is. It is the reality. That's why I moved out of Florida. Ben has been great. Hang in with you. Thanks for having me. That's a really good friend. You take care of yourself. Hope to see you again soon. That's a wrap of today's episode of "Dead Doctor." I enjoy bringing this content to you each and every week. And I really appreciate you tuning in. Remember to follow us so you get notified when ever new episodes release. If you haven't already done so, please share one of your favorite episodes with a friend, family or colleagues. And if you don't mind, leave us a positive review on Apple's Spotify or whatever your favorite listening platform might be. Until next time, thank you for investing your time with us on "Dead Doctor."

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. Climate change is increasingly impacting real estate through worsening weather, rising insurance costs, and declining property values, especially for at-risk homes.
  2. Many homeowners are in denial, betting their property will avoid damage, but forced changes are coming from insurers, regulators, and the market.
  3. The housing crisis is driven by tight inventory, high interest rates, institutional investors buying up properties, and a lack of affordable new construction.
  4. Hardening homes against climate risks can yield up to an 8% price premium, while neglecting mitigation leads to a 1.2% annual value decline.
  5. Government roles include protecting communities, but states may face pressure to enact new codes and regulations as federal disaster aid shrinks.

Summary:

The conversation highlights the intersection of climate change and real estate, emphasizing that denial is not a viable strategy. Bill Bynell and Ben Gelleland discuss how worsening weather, rising insurance costs, and market forces are pressuring homeowners to act. Gelleland explains that many people wrongly assume their home will dodge disasters, but probabilities are worsening.

2% annually. Conversely, hardening a home can yield an 8% price premium. The housing crisis is exacerbated by limited inventory, high interest rates, and institutional investors buying up properties for rentals, squeezing first-time buyers.

3 million, forcing young people to leave. His nonprofit aims to build affordable homes at half that cost using new construction technology. He also stresses that government protection is faltering, with states likely to impose new codes and regulations as federal disaster aid diminishes.

Ultimately, a forced migration and remediation effort is coming from multiple angles—insurance, real estate values, and community regulations—making proactive mitigation essential for homeowners and communities.

FAQs

The Debt Doctor podcast focuses on navigating distressed real estate debt, providing strategies to identify, acquire, and monetize undervalued real estate assets.

Ben Gelleland specializes in climate-resilient real estate through his company Future Proof Property Intelligence, which uses AI to analyze risks and provide construction solutions to safeguard homes and lower insurance costs.

Hawaii has a severe housing crisis, with an average home price of $1.3 million, causing 3,000 young people to leave monthly because they cannot afford to live there.

Homes in extreme risk areas are losing about 1.2% of their value per year, while those hardened against climate risks can gain up to an 8% premium.

Insurance companies canceling policies or raising rates, declining real estate values, and new government regulations requiring mitigation to protect communities.

Weather is what is happening outside right now, while climate is the longer-term pattern that influences potential future weather events.

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