Advanced techniques to analyze Google Ads & Facebook Ads results
5m 15s
The podcast episode addresses why Google and Facebook ROAS reports are often misleading and provides a framework for accurate performance measurement. The core issue is attribution overlap: when a user interacts with ads on multiple platforms before purchasing, each platform claims the sale, inflating reported ROAS and leading to poor scaling decisions. Three main tracking problems are identified—view-through conversions, mixed conversion types, and last-click attribution—all of which require immediate fixes, such as switching to 7-day click-only attribution for Meta and isolating revenue-based actions. For advanced measurement, the host recommends moving beyond platform-specific data-driven attribution to models like Shapley value or Markov chain, though simpler fixes suffice for smaller budgets. Segmentation is critical to avoid average ROAS deception, breaking down data by device, audience, and customer type, with new customers prioritized over returning ones. Cohort analysis over 90 days reveals true channel value, while competitive monitoring—impression share on Google and CPM on Meta—helps anticipate market shifts. Incrementality testing, through conversion lift or geo tests, answers whether ads drive sales that wouldn’t occur otherwise, providing true incremental ROAS. The episode concludes with a phased action plan: fix tracking and UTMs in week one, build a unified dashboard and segmentation in month one, run lift tests and competitive analysis in months two to three, and implement long-term geo tests and cohort reports. Ultimately, success hinges on knowing what actually works, not trusting platform numbers.
Your Google ads dashboard says R O A S 4.2. Your Facebook ads manager says R O A S 3.8. Your revenue report matches neither. So who's telling the truth? None of them. Today I'll show you why and what to do about it. Welcome back to the lead goals podcast. We don't do surface level talk here. This is for operator spending $10,000 plus a month on ads. We're breaking down how to actually read Google and Facebook results. First, why reporting lies? Every platform grades its own homework. A user clicks Facebook on Monday, Google on Thursday, buys Friday. Both platforms claim the sale. You got one sale. Reporting shows two. That's attribution overlap and it leads to scaling the wrong channels. Three key problems. One met a view through conversions. Someone just sees your ad and buys later. Facebook takes credit. Fix switch to seven day click only. No view through to Google conversion confusion leads, calls, purchases, all grouped together. You must separate primary versus secondary conversions, only track real revenue actions. Three last click attribution. Google gives all credit to the final click. This over values branded search and under values top of funnel. Fix your tracking before anything else. Now attribution data driven attribution is better than last click. It spreads credit across touch points using data, but it still stays inside one platform. Advanced models go further. Shapley value attribution assigns credit based on contribution across all channel combinations. Markov chain attribution removes a channel and measures how conversions drop. You don't need to build these, but you need to understand what they mean. Practical rule under $30,000 per month, fixed tracking plus use data driven over $50,000 per month, consider attribution tools. Next segmentation averages high truth. A campaign with R O A S 3.2 might be mobile at 1.4 desktop at 5.8. Break everything down device mobile versus desktop time hours and days, audience cold versus warm new versus returning customers. New customers matter most returning customers inflate R O A S, but don't grow the business. Then cohort analysis group customers by when they were acquired, track their value over time. If Google customers are worth more after 90 days than Facebook customers, that's your real signal, not in platform R O A S. Now competition. You're in an auction in Google watch, impression share, overlap rate, position above rate. If impression share drops, either budget is limiting or competition increased. If overlap rate spikes, a competitor is scaling. If they rank above you, study their ads, not just raise bids. On meta, watch CPM. If CPM rises, competition is increasing. Use the ad library ads running 30 plus days are likely profitable. That's free insight. Now incrementality. Key question, would this sale happen without the ad? Example branded search, people already know you. They might buy anyway incrementality testing shows real impact method. One conversion lift split audience into test and control, measure the difference. That difference is true performance method to geo tests run ads in some regions, pause in others, compare revenue, that gives true incremental R O A S. This is how advanced buyers think. Now data, most people jump between platforms and spreadsheets. That's unreliable. You need one system, bring all data into one place, standardized naming, de duplicate conversions, build one dashboard and keep UTM's consistent. Bad naming equals bad data. Action plan week one, fixed meta attribution, clean Google conversions, standardized UTMs month one, set up data system, build dashboard, start segmentation. Months two to three switch attribution model, run lift tests, monitor competition. Long term run geo tests, build cohort reports, optimize based on real impact. Final thought, winners aren't the best creatives. They're the ones who know what's actually working. If this helped, leave a review. I'll see you next episode.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
Platform-reported ROAS (e.g., Google 4.2, Facebook 3.8) is unreliable due to attribution overlap, where multiple platforms claim the same sale.
Key tracking issues include view-through conversions (Facebook crediting non-click exposure), mixed conversion types (leads vs. purchases), and last-click attribution (overvaluing branded search).
Fix tracking first
Under $30k/month, use fixed tracking plus data-driven attribution; over $50k/month, consider advanced models like Shapley value or Markov chain attribution.
Avoid average ROAS traps—segment by device, time, audience (cold vs. warm), and new vs. returning customers; new customers are the true growth signal.
Use cohort analysis to compare customer value over 90 days, revealing which channel drives long-term profit.
Monitor competition
Test incrementality via conversion lift (test vs. control) or geo tests to see if sales happen without ads, giving true incremental ROAS.
Consolidate all data into one system with standardized naming, deduplicated conversions, and consistent UTMs to ensure accuracy.
1
Action plan
Summary:
The podcast episode addresses why Google and Facebook ROAS reports are often misleading and provides a framework for accurate performance measurement. The core issue is attribution overlap: when a user interacts with ads on multiple platforms before purchasing, each platform claims the sale, inflating reported ROAS and leading to poor scaling decisions. Three main tracking problems are identified—view-through conversions, mixed conversion types, and last-click attribution—all of which require immediate fixes, such as switching to 7-day click-only attribution for Meta and isolating revenue-based actions.
For advanced measurement, the host recommends moving beyond platform-specific data-driven attribution to models like Shapley value or Markov chain, though simpler fixes suffice for smaller budgets. Segmentation is critical to avoid average ROAS deception, breaking down data by device, audience, and customer type, with new customers prioritized over returning ones. Cohort analysis over 90 days reveals true channel value, while competitive monitoring—impression share on Google and CPM on Meta—helps anticipate market shifts.
Incrementality testing, through conversion lift or geo tests, answers whether ads drive sales that wouldn’t occur otherwise, providing true incremental ROAS. The episode concludes with a phased action plan: fix tracking and UTMs in week one, build a unified dashboard and segmentation in month one, run lift tests and competitive analysis in months two to three, and implement long-term geo tests and cohort reports. Ultimately, success hinges on knowing what actually works, not trusting platform numbers.
FAQs
Each platform attributes sales to itself, leading to overlap. For example, a user clicking Facebook and Google before buying can be claimed by both, showing two sales for one actual purchase.
Switch to seven-day click-only attribution to exclude view-through conversions, where credit is given just for seeing an ad without clicking.
Separate primary versus secondary conversions and only track real revenue actions like calls and purchases, not all grouped events.
Last-click gives all credit to the final click, overvaluing branded search. Data-driven attribution spreads credit across touchpoints using data, but it still only works within one platform.
If you spend under $30,000 per month, fix tracking and use data-driven attribution. Over $50,000 per month, consider using attribution tools like Shapley value or Markov chain models.
Averages hide truth; a campaign with 3.2 ROAS might be 1.4 on mobile and 5.8 on desktop. Break down by device, time, audience, and new versus returning customers to see real performance.
Chat with AI
Loading...
Pro features
Go deeper with this episode
Unlock creator-grade tools that turn any transcript into show notes and subtitle files.