ACC Win Totals Part 2: North Carolina, SMU, Virginia Tech & MORE | Will Notre Dame Go Undefeated?

Welcome back to the Cover 3 Podcast with your host, Chip Patterson, Tom Fernelli, Danny Kennell, and Bob Elliott. It's your call for the best college football coverage from National Signing Day to the National Championship and everything in between. CBS Sports presents the Cover 3 Podcast. And welcome back to the Cover 3 Podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Fernelli. That's Bud Elliott. I'm Chip Patterson, coming to you live, youtube.com/cover3, and everywhere you get your podcast on the man, thanks for hanging out, smash that subscribe, smash that like and come and join us in the chat, aka the Cover 3 tailgate thoughts, abundant thoughts. Here's what we got. Part 2 of the ACC coming your way, we're going to start with the North Carolina Tar Heels, take it all the way through Wake Forest, and because management has handed me an ultimatum, apparently we have to do Notre Dame, long time listeners and viewers of the Cover 3 Podcast know that we've told Notre Dame to join a conference, if you want to be treated, you know, in the same way that everyone else does, we've sometimes saved or even almost forgotten to do Notre Dame's win total. I think one time we just packaged it in with locks because we never got to it. That's what happens when you're not in a conference, but management has asked that we included as well, apparently people are interested in a Notre Dame team that might go 12 to note. We'll have that discussion coming up in a little bit, yes top. I will say in our defense, if you look at Notre Dame schedule this year, how often is anybody going to be paying attention to them during the season? I mean, just the ultimate, you know, 55 minutes into the instant reaction show on Saturday night, like, oh, and Notre Dame 149 to 14 next. Yeah. Pretty much. Yeah. Anyway, we need to waste no more time. We need to give this show the proper introduction. So I ask you gentlemen, y'all ready, count them up? As much as I think it's the up here as a safe play, like I can't even count them up, count them up. I think you're going to win this fall. I can't fow down any ways. I just can't. I don't see it. It's not on there. It's not scheduled. I'm looking at this is another schedule somewhere. Of course, as always, our thanks to Barton Simmons, the best general manager in college football for continuing to allow us to use his likeness for that theme song that so many of you love so much. It's interesting that he mentions, you know, schedule because that's at the heart of the conversation for the North Carolina Tar Heels and the Bill Bell Check era in Chapel Hill. Last year, you had a favorable schedule, one of the most favorable in the ACC, which is why you had a win total of seven and a half and you fell woefully short of that with a four and eight showing and one of the worst offenses in all of college football. This year, the schedule is one of the toughest in the ACC. Now, they've got a win total of four and a half if you're watching along on youtube.com/cover3. You see that challenging start that includes going to Dublin to play TCU, but then also having to play Clemson Notre Dame and at Pitt all within the first five games of the season. Yikes. You know, you want to talk quarterback, you all want to talk Bill, you all want to talk Lombardi, how many different ways do you want to pick this apart? Because I've got answers, I've got frustrations, I've got all kinds of emotions for you. You drive. I mean, Chip, I think that like, you know, Bill Bell Check, Michael Lombardi, questions about how good they are without Tom Brady, you know, North Carolina, you know, like what's the Brundt Schindler are all great words to start this segment with. I wasn't even playing the S.A. That was you, no, no, this is just me, like for example, I'll throw this one out there. Bill Bell Check, you know, hey, we've got four quarterbacks that are all competing about the same, which means that he's given a lot of runway to Travis Burgess, who's very talented, but I know that you were very impressed with him as a high school prospect. A Tory New Kirk, I'm not really considering it. Some people are ready to just say Billy Edwards is a quarterback. I think it's going to be Milzo Neal, honestly, just because if Bobby Patrino recruited Milzo Neal to go from Massachusetts to Texas A&M, there must be something about Milzo Neal that Bobby Patrino likes. And there must be something about Bobby Patrino that Milzo Neal feels comfortable with. But do any of these quarterbacks inspire a change in your power rating? I don't know. You know, that might be a question as well. Offensively, we retain Benjamin Hall, we retain Demon June, retain Jordan ship. That's great. Kelly too, but tons and tons of turnover. It is truly a year one part two in Chapel Hill against a schedule that is wildly more challenging than last year's schedule, or over under win total, it draft Kingsports books at four and a half. How are we going to start picking this apart? Starting at quarterback, they did not like the guy they had last year. Now, that doesn't mean he's not any good, right? Like their track record was playing Reval last year was not great. Well, he's the starter at Wake Forest, so we'll get to talk about them later. So in looking at this, I kind of liked Billy Edwards pre-Injury, like I thought he did some nice things at Maryland that was relatively excited to see, you know, what he would do at that interim stop, and obviously got hurt. They're going to try to pound the ball with a much larger offensive line and throw the ball over the top, which is kind of classic, Patrino. Milzo Neal can throw it long distances. He does have a strong arm. I don't know about like playing the quarterback position or whatnot, but, um, man, it, I'm under here. Chip, they don't seem like, I feel like they're just as much of a disaster behind the scenes as four state is, you know, like it doesn't seem super buttoned up. I, first of all, Demon June, if your name is Demon, don't spell it demon. All right, like, let's, let's fix the spelling on that, but no, that's on us, Tom. Okay. Cause he started playing good in the middle last season. We were all calling him demon June, which comes after Angel May. Well, then his, and then I think somebody reached out, I was like, Hey, man, he might not like being associated with demons and don't spell your name demon. All right. Change the spelling of your name. That's not my fault. I didn't do that to you anyways. I listen, I'm not optimistic about North Carolina going into the year. There's very little reason to be optimistic about North Carolina going into the year. That said, we only need to find five wins on this schedule. Boys, that's all we're looking for to go over. And if you look at what happened last year, defensively, the team was not a mess. Like, I don't, they weren't great. If you look at success rate, they weren't great on a down to down basis, but they did a very good job limiting explosive plays and they did a good, decent, this job in the red zone, which to me are two areas where if you can continue that, especially in this league given the, you know, lack of elite teams outside the Miami tier, can go a long way defensively offensively. They were horrific. They were terrible. There was not a fit, roster wise. You bring in Bobby Patrino. You say what you want about Bobby off the field. We know the offense is going to be good. He's never had a bad one. So whether it's Billy Edwards, whether it's Milo's O'Neal Hell, whether it's, it might be a Tory New Kirk, who knows, whichever one Bobby likes the best, I think they're going to score more points than they did last year. So if the defense maintains the same level it had and the offense just gets a little bit better, a little bit more dangerous, we can get to five and seven. I'm going over. Let's go, Tom, you know, you know, do you know what the thing is though, five and seven, four and eight, three and nine. It's all not fun. It ain't, it ain't enjoyable. You don't, you don't really feel like this is to Bud's point. It's not feeling great right now because when I'm sitting there talking to, to Jordan ship and he's talking about these player led practices and the way that they're so much more connected because now I'll editorialize this me talking. There were Mack guys and there were Bill guys. Now, I mean, that is just undeniable like there was, there was a real friction within last year's team and there does seem to be both from the player standpoint and also taken away a lot more connectedness with this roster, but that that doesn't change that it still feels like the big picture operation is, I don't know, it doesn't feel like this was going to be an opportunity for them to get going and lay the foundation that they were hoping to lay and don't feel great about it, I'm not excited about it, I mean, Jordan ships from Charlotte. He hated losing to NC State Duke and Wake Forest in the same season. He understands what that means and he understands the chip on the shoulder of everybody else when they get to go play against that sissy blue, which looks great in this home field apparel jacket that you can get home field apparel. Yeah, I'm four and eight, I think they've got the, I think they could be a better team with the same record, schedules too tough and man, I don't know why you invited Bobby Patrino because you all know what Bobby Patrino does, it's a great interim coach. Oh, yeah, he does that too. Yeah, yeah, that's who, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, I'm going to just say, you, you know, He didn't eat it, he did not successfully pull it off it. Was it Auburn where we thought he was lurking? - Arkansas. - Arkansas. - But did he not get named the interim? - I don't think so. I thought they named him. - I'm trying to recall now. - Oh, did Pippin get fired during the season? - They let him coach it out? - I think I can't, I thought he coached it out. Who knows, I could be wrong. I wasn't paying a whole hell of a lot of attention to Arkansas in November. - I'll go google it. - All right. - How many games are gonna win this ball? - Yeah, they did it in the interim coach. - Oh, okay. - Professional, you know, he shows up ready to do his job. All right, let's turn our attention to a team that is projected to be in the post season. That is the PIT Panthers. Seven and a half wins. Is your win total at Draft King Sportsbook over Juiced at minus 146 under at plus 125. Mason Heinzschel back once again, Kate Bell back once again. We got more cat amounts out here, more Western Carolina players. They keep popping up to be able to fill in. Desmond Reed, by the way, all everything, all purpose back is gone, but we're still expecting the offense to be able to produce at a high level. - Ooh, he might be able to come back. - On the five for five? - Yeah. - Oh, keep your eye on that one, but I'll let you take first word here. Defensively, we've lost some really, really good players over the years, but the player development on that side of the ball has been very good under Narduzzi. What's the expectation for the Panthers? - Yeah, that's sort of my worry here, is line of scrimmage for PIT. Just like the vibes that I got were like, they didn't correctly read the market on how much defensive line was gonna cost in the portal. And, you know, maybe either should have or just couldn't have gone for what the guys, they wanted to get cost and had to drop down to some kind of plan B and plan C options there. I do think that they will be pretty decent in the secondary and will probably have to blitz their butts off. They really have to hold serve at home. In looking at this, like home is Miami Ohio, UCF, Q's, Bucknell, UNC, Georgia Tech, FSU. You probably need to go six and one at home to hit this, maybe five and two gets it done for you, but like to get to eight, if you go five and two at home, then you have to grab three of Rody's, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Miami, Louisville, Cal. That seems like a challenge. With this price to basically call it a $1.50 to the over, I'm gonna lean slightly under here, but not a, not something I'm really looking to attack at this point, given that they do have, I think one of the best QB office coordinators combos in the conference. - We talked about it in part one, if you can remember all those many days ago. There aren't a lot of teams in this league where I'm confident at the quarterback position. This is one of them, so that certainly gives pit a reasonable floor in my projections for what I expect them to do. I think hindsight's good. I think he might end up, you know, I mean, Mensa is probably going to be the best quarterback in the league, but if there's a guy who I think has the potential to kind of maybe overtake him if he has a spectacular season, you know, on the first team, it's Hygel and JKS, or the two guys I would be looking at. So I think that could be a huge difference for this Panther team. I think the fact that like their first five or their first six games are at home, could help them get off to a very good start to kind of build some, you know, confidence going into the second half of the season where you've got Miami looming on the road, but there's still plenty of getable games on there. I do have concerns about the defense, particularly the defensive line. Like I know some of the guys they brought in on the depth chart or in the portal. I mean, like, you know, like Illinois, they lost a ton of dudes in the defensive line. Some of those guys were, I was like, damn, really didn't want to lose them. One of the guys that pit God, I was just like, whatever. And that guy looks like he could be in their 2D, which to me does not bode well, but I also give Narduzzi some benefit of the doubt when it comes to defense and that they have done such a good job of developing guys that I won't be shocked if some of these names that don't really pop off the screen to me right now is something to be worried about. End up having the kind of seasons where I'm like, damn, that's a dude right there. Somebody's gonna pluck him like Ohio State or Miami. They're gonna come take him just like they've done every year to pit lately. So yeah, I'm over. It's not an overly optimistic one, but I think this team can get to eight wins. I think this team is gonna be one of the top 3rd in the ACC. Slight, slightest of under just as kind of ends up being a little bit of a make good for Virginia Tech positivity for Georgia Tech positivity. Just some of those Cal also, just some of those toss ups that could go either way. And I just think pit is volatile. This is the team that started 7-0 and finished 0-6. This is the team that was capable of beating up on some teams absolutely shredding NC State, for example, last season. But then this would be particularly important when looking at the chances of being able to take down a Miami when they went up against Miami Notre Dame at the end of the season. It was a different weight class. So I think that there's a couple of losses in there that I feel confident about. And then there just hasn't been enough consistency when I'm ready to jump all over like, oh yes, that is a definite win. And so in my classic win loss toss up analysis, it's just too many dagum toss ups. And so if I'm feeling okay about some of those other teams and the beefy middle of the ACC, I think I called them a Ham sandwich months ago. Like for me, that's like pit, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Virginia, NC State, Cal, Georgia Tech. Like those teams on any given day, like somebody like a safety taps their helmet and then all of a sudden it's a green light go, pit's gonna shred you. You know, there's just so, so thin margins between some of those teams in the middle. Seven and five slightly, maybe more than eight and four, but ultimately I'm kind of right on the number and definitely not in the mood to bet this one myself. Get 'em up! SMU Mustangs have fully been crowned as a team that is considered a top tier ACC team. That's what happened. They walked out of the American, eight no in conference play, then walked in, got to the conference championship game, almost won it. As we mentioned last year, they finished us one of the teams in the five way tie for second, almost had a spot in that ACC championship game with a shot to return to the college football playoff as they were sitting at number 21 before the loss to Cal. Okay, so what is this season gonna be about? Well, it's all about gassing up Kevin Jennings. They're all wearing cowboy hats to media days. They got Jennings for Heisman shirts. I mean, they are just, we are letting you know screaming it from the rooftop, but, I mean, even behind him, you're dealing with a talented roster that has found its level in terms of the kind of prospects that they're looking to get, who they're competing against, and then being able to win those bidding wars. There are other schools with money that are able to blow that money 'cause they can win bidding wars just to win bidding wars. Correct me, if I'm all on this, it feels like SMU has a better connection rate, better hit rate, and seems to understand when and where they need to swing that checkbook around. PJ Williams, man, if he can be healthy, that could be one of the best offensive linemen in the ACC. And as we start to look at both sides of the ball, it's a team that should compete for an ACC championship. Win total here at eight and a half drafting sportsbook over minus 136 under plus 115. Tom, what are we doing with RETS squad? I think you just touched on something that's a very strong point. And I think that's one of the things that works in SMU's favor is what this is the 12th team now and in our ACC teams that we've gone over. And when you assess these teams and you try to look at their off seasons, I see a lot of portal classes where I feel like that team was outspent. They couldn't afford it. They couldn't afford to go out and get these guys. SMU is one of the few programs in the country where I look at their portal class and maybe they didn't get like the top five, top 10 players available, but they clearly spent money. They clearly went after the guys they wanted and bought proven production, not just guys that could be his depth. They found needs that they, areas that they needed and they wouldn't got somebody who can actually, they know can fill in. And I think that gives them a leg up on most teams in this league. You mentioned Kevin Jennings, love Kevin Jennings. I do think there has been a little bit of overselling on him in the hype market as you mentioned. Like I think he's a top 20 quarterback in the country. He gets talked about lately, like he's a top 10 quarterback, maybe even top five guy. As for his Heisman case, I mean, under discussed, but understandable. His freshman year, the year that they went to the playoffs, they ran the hell out of him. Last year, he didn't run. Last year, he was, they were using it more as a pocket passer and then he would run if things broke down and he had to scramble, but they weren't designing things for him. They clearly are worried about him getting dinged up in the run game and they wanted to keep that from happening. So I wouldn't bet him to win the Heisman if they're going to have that same approach this year because I don't think he's a good enough thrower of the football to win that award without his rushing stats backing it up. Anyways, back to the subject of what their SMU is going to win games. They are. They're going to win plenty of games. They are one of the better teams in this league. Their schedule is not a bear. They've got Florida State on the road. That's a tough way to start. They could easily lose that game, but that won't cause me to start selling my SMU stock. It's just a, you know, you lost in the road for a stay. You've got Notre Dame on the road. I'd rather have them there at home than at home because you're probably going to lose that game. Louisville on the road is tough, but that home slate, man, come on. Is there a home game that they can't win like that you don't expect them to win? So they're win totals. What eight and a half, eight and a half, give me the over. They're going nine and three. I honestly feel like I look at this league. Miami, I know is going to be 12 and over 11 and one, depending on that Miami game. I don't know that there's another team in this league that is going to win 10 games. This is one of the few that I think has a legitimate shot to do it. Totally agree over for me. I think they've done a nice job, but they're scouting. I think they retained it like they hit. They retain those guys that they added smart stuff from the portal. You know, Jennings, I think is like a really good college quarterback. I'm not sure he's like an amazing pro prospect. But I like, you know, we have staff continuity as well. I'm pretty high on this team. I think that they're probably the one that's going to play Miami for the AC championship this year, which would be pretty again to watch since they don't play in the regular season. I was looking at this. I think because they have like real expectations. If I was going to play an under here, I would rather play the alt under. Because if you did start poorly, like if you lost for the state and Louisville to start, then I think you may have some focus issues down the stretch to where it brings in that, you know, kind of the more tail into the distribution of outcomes. You know what I'm saying? Like are some of those games that we're marking off as easy right now. And this is definitely a cakewalk schedule by AC standards, like in conference. Obviously, the game at Notre Dame, I think we all expect them to lose that one or at least I do. But like, you know, I would rather if I was going to play an under, I'd rather play under seven and a half at plus 270 to under eight and a half plus dollar 15. I'd rather play SMU to make the playoff than play an under. Yeah. Yeah. You mentioned the Kevin Jennings thing. He had a bad wheel. That boy was banged up all season. I actually gave him moxie points. I saw him limping around, beating Miami, you know, doing everything he can to be able to get that win done. And I'm like, okay, this is, this is something, this is not just a good college quarterback, potentially a great college quarterback, the kind of guy who does end up getting remembered. I mean, he's got his own recovery facility name for him already. You know, I just, I think that we are dealing with a cool story done. Many's done, many's the best player in the country. You know, it doesn't mean he's the most outstanding player in the country. But absolutely one of the best quarterbacks in the ACC and someone who, if he is fully healthy and is able to unlock the running aspect of his game, once again, is going to be something to keep an eye on. I mean, do you remember when Tanner Mordecai was the starting quarterback for SMU? And then he gets banged up and Kevin Jennings has to come in and save their bacon. And then when Preston Stone can't get it done and he goes out and Kevin Jennings has to come in and save their bacon, I mean, he's been in this for a long time. But Tom, I'm with you on the general, like, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Like great, great, great player, um, respects for them for gassing up their guy. And, and right, Lashley said as much, he said, look, if we don't yell it, nobody will, you know, they are very much still newcomer on the block, you know, shaken and rattling and banging pots and pans. So I understand why you're doing it. And I'm clearly very positive about their outlook for the season. I think they're a college football playoff contender, ACC championship contender. And because of that, I feel very comfortable going over the eight and a half. How many kids are going to win this fall for coach, Pritchard and coach look, stand for Cardinal, having over under win total of three and a half over minus one twenty five. I had draft King sports book under minus one, oh, five, um, you know, it's, I told you that it was something that I kind of clocked with my ear here and, and here in the words coach look, get mentioned by Davis Warren. So I, you know, like we've, we've already had some great moments with, uh, with Stanford's general manager, who's, who's very hands on in the process. Uh, look, here, let's, let's go positive. Michael Ford is a very, very talented running back and they were able to, you know, keep him in the fold. That's a great thing. Davis Warren was once identified, I believe by Tom Frennelly as a Mac quarterback. Yeah. Okay, is that going to get it done at Stanford? No. Okay. Like that, that's really, I can go in depth or I could just, it's, it's, your quarterback battle and we're assuming Davis Warren is a starter. But if it's not, it's Dylan risk who's a transfer from UCF who didn't play last year, either. And when he did play a couple of years ago, wasn't exactly confidence inspiring. But if Davis Warren is your quarterback going into the season, how am I supposed to have confidence in, in your team? Like this was a guy who at Michigan, when he was surrounded by far better talent than what he's surrounded by at Stanford couldn't get the job done. I don't think he's going to be able to get the job done at Stanford either. And even if the overall level of competition he faces on a weekly basis is lower than what he was facing at Michigan, I just, he's no longer on a team that's going to be more talented than with the one they're facing either way. So I, like, I look at the juice on there, I'm trying to figure out why the hell the books are more confident they're going over than under based on those numbers, like give me the under. I don't know that they're winning three games, let alone four. Yeah, I mean, look, Hawaii's dealing with some injuries makes it more likely Stanford or the Stanford gets that one. Like at Duke at Wake, I think there's a shot they could get one of those. Maybe, you know, like, like I'm not max confidence, those teams are awesome this year. I think one of your problems is that you're, you don't have a lot of like the, hey, if they have a let down game, we can pick them off at home games here. And like that, where the travel really plays in the overlook. Like, I got one, well, Georgia Tech, yeah, SMU right after they play Notre Dame. This is the team that lost that cow. Yeah, that is true, but cow does have a little bit different person now. Like they play basically all of the best ACC teams at home. Like the teams that I think are going to like can roll out their C game and still beat Stanford's A game. You know, like Georgia Tech's maybe the one that's like closest to their level. You know, but Hawaii and Elon should be win. So it's basically like, can you hunt up two other wins? Three and a half is a really low price. I don't show an edge here. I think this is probably well priced, to be honest, but I don't really see much in this roster either. So I guess I got to give a pick. Under under don't love it, but I mean, yeah, you got swimming season will be here before you know it's Stanford fans. I'm going to be on Stanford to beat Hawaii though. They could. I don't know that they will. There's going to be some, that'll be Stanford Super Bowl. There's going to be a lot of buzz on the bows. You know, everyone, every Johnny on the spot who remembers watching standard definition whack games is going to be yearning for that Hawaii win. I'll have my nerd glasses on and we'll watch watch watch Stanford get the ACC off to a good start there. I think they can get that one. I will give Stanford some credit in that, hey, they're not trying to dodge Notre Dame. They're letting them stay on the schedule. Turning our attention to the Syracuse Orange where the schedule is very, very, very difficult. There's a clear eyed view. I can promise you, there's a clear eyed view of what this exactly is. You're going to be down. We mentioned the, I guess we were a mid show, right, mid mailbag when we were reminded about Calvin Russell being out. That's disappointing a huge recruiting win. But Steve Angelie is back when Steve Angelie was healthy. This Syracuse beat Clemson, you know, I mean, this is a group led by Fran Brown one 10 games two years ago and last year we're left with their fourth string quarterback former lacrosse player trying to run the offense. I think it was like, Fran Brown, hey, would you learn from last year's struggles? I learned we need to have better quarterbacks. You know, I mean, there's, there's a way to explain it away, but how do you explain whatever record is going to come out of this one? Now, the Draft King Sportsbook has over under it four and a half wins over minus 105 under minus 125. But where do you start as we, as we're looking at the orange roster and schedule with Angelie back in the fold? I see like over here. One of these teams that is not projecting to make a bull in AC has to kind of rise up and make one probably two. And to me and jelly is way better at quarterback than what you have at Cal, Duke, Wake and Carolina. Cal? Sorry, excuse me. Uh, Stanford, my bad. Okay. Wrong Barry team. Okay. Yeah. Um, Steven jelly, better than JKS, but Elliott. I like some of their young defensive lineman quite a bit. And I think like, if you give me a quarterback and a D line that can make some stops, I think you're potentially live in a game like at Pitt, you know, Yukon, like everybody who follows the G6 is like way down and like they're, their win total has gotten beaten down like crazy. So that to me is not that hard of a trip as long as they take it seriously and if their goal is to make a bowl, they should be taking that seriously, you know, they get Boston College late, like what is BC at that point is Bill Bryant coaching BC at that point is Bryan Kelly coaching BC at that point, who knows, right? Well, I guess CBS is on Bryan Kelly. So you know, at Carolina, I guess we'll see, I think they can get to five. I don't project them to make a bowl, but I do. I like over four and a half here more than the other teams in that four and a half range. Yeah, I'm on the under, but it's not something where I'm like, confident in it's this is this is an interesting team to me because yeah, better quarterback health should go a long way, the schedule, they don't have to play Miami, but other than that, very few favors done for the Syracuse orange on this slate. But I look at the overall state of the program and the reason Fran Brown was hired was because of their belief in his ability to improve the roster. You look at the recruiting class they bring in like Calvin Russell's injury sucks. He was the best player in their class. But overall while Syracuse, maybe not one of the top national programs, their 2026 class was fifth in the ACC compared to the rest of the league that they're bringing in more talent. And a lot of those freshmen are going to be in the two deep, like I don't know if they're going to be starting, but they're guys that they're going to be relying on to get some snaps. So there's a little bit of volatility there of some of those younger guys hit and start contributing right away. We could see maybe the floor is a bit, but what also gives me more confidence is their transfer class didn't really hit a lot of home runs as far as like top guys, but they brought in a lot of experience. They brought in a lot of guys who should help raise that floor. It's not a lot of developmental question marks. They didn't really play at their last school and are just looking for a place to go with their guys that did play, but they're just, you know, moving up a little bit. So I think the floor is pretty okay. It's just that schedule. I feel like they will be a better team in 2026 and they were in 2025, but the record's not going to reflect it. No, under the, the flunoate kid is that's how you say his last name from Georgia state. I think it was like a perfect fit for them. Like he, I remember watching him against Ole Miss in the first game for Georgia state last year. I was like, shoot. This guy's built like a fire hydrant and he's like standing up Ole Missus Center. Like no pass rush out and like he's six foot three 25 like they need, they needed a plug or man. Like that's not going to be a four star transfer type thing, but like, you know, transfer for the purpose of fit. Like God, it's here. He's need that. I think that helps them. Dude, who can do the job? Yeah. That you need. Badly. I think Fran Brown's a good coach. I think the staff is pretty good. That probably speaks to some of the portal evaluations and the way the recruiting efforts are going. I think the schedules tough at four and eight, maybe slightly more than five and seven, but I don't have them making a bowl. So officially, slightly into the under, but dangerous team I'm keeping tabs on and very ready to change my mind on once we start seeing action on the field. Coming up on the other side, we turn our attention to the Commonwealth state, Virginia, Virginia Tech Wake Forest and because y'all are yelling for it, Notre Dame, why not next? This episode is brought to you by PNC Bank. If you've ever watched a football game with someone who doesn't normally, you might have been asked, like, what's the point of running the ball up the middle? In short, to the uninformed eye, these plays are boring, but they result in a lot of short reliable gains while managing the clock. It's just like why PNC uses a boring methodical approach because reliable gains while keeping an eye on the time are just as important for your money as they are in football. PNC Bank brilliantly boring since 1865 brilliantly boring since 1865 is a registered mark of the PNC financial services group Inc PNC Bank National Association member FDIC. How many kids are going to win this fall? An interesting question for Tony Elliott and the Virginia Cavaliers, the Wahoo's, one of their best seasons in school history, double digit wins, making it all the way to the ACC championship game, almost winning that ACC championship. It was the investment paying off, you know, of Tony Elliott, on the hot seat, get some investment, they kind of signed it up, right? We see this sometimes where the university, the boosters, they say, okay, we're going to give you everything you ask for, can you show it to us? Tony Elliott did bring back a successful season. So what did they do? They went right back kind of to the same game plan. They increased their portal activity by about three X going into last season and now they're kind of maintaining that churn. They are playing the game. They are paying. And we get to see if they have the same kind of hit rate because Chan, the Morris Gone, this year's quarterback will be Bo Probula, who is going to be on his third power conference stop, Penn State, Missouri, before that. I thought a Missouri, maybe limited, but pretty good. You take him and put him against ACC defenses. I don't have any reason to consider him limited offensively. I think that they should be pretty good. Defences a little bit of a two sided, you know, are you going to trust all of the new players to be able to hit Cam Robinson, good update ahead of schedule on his return from injury. He shoots an absolute superstar at the linebacker position and that linebacker room, I know that big picture is something Virginia fans are very excited about. So it's seven and a half after winning double digit games last year. Is it water finds its level coming back to Earth or, but do you think we see more of the same in Charlottesville? I'm slightly over here. I think that Tony Elliott has done a really nice job there. They seem to be like, I think there's like synergy within that program, just the vibes I get. It's kind of analytical, but I do think it matters. Hey, I'm sorry. You're talking, but yeah, but I agree. It's alignment. It's vibes. They're moving in the right direction. Won't win every game because of vibes, but they're winning where it counts. Like, I think they wanted to run more cities and bit last year. Bo is obviously a guy. You can do some more QB run game stuff with getting NC State out of Brazil is good. I had a guy, actually, yeah, this reference is so niche. It might out who it is. Never mind, but basically, I'll basically say like that was going to be a cluster down in Brazil. They were really happy that that name is not in Brazil anymore. So anyway, Norfolk should be a win, Delaware should be a win. You should be able to beat cues at home. Duke should be a win in Charlottesville, Carolina, obviously, like you should get. Cal is probably good enough to where that's loosable at wake. I think they're good enough to be awake on the road. At the Hokies, I think they're better than Hokies are. It's just like, it's these early games, NC State to open West Virginia is not super easy. It's a neutral site game as we have there on screen. And then at FSU, like who knows what that is at this point. I think they're favored, you know, eight or nine times. So I am going to go over slightly also like this is the fourth or fifth easiest schedule in conference play. Bye bye. Yeah, I think you're definitely going to see regression like they're not going to win 11 games again. Like they won three games and over time, they had a bunch of like the other one score wins outside of those games that you're going to come back down to earth. But even with that being the case, I still think this is a pretty good football team. And I think it's pretty good roster. Chip, you mentioned Pribula, like he, he made me, you know, he put, he ag on my face last year when he was at Mazew. I was like, why the hell are we happening at Mazew with bow Pribula? It's not high on him. But I, you know, opened my eyes a little bit playing in a much tougher league. I thought he played well. Like he's not a game changing elite QB, but he, his somebody who I believe at least with his talents and what he does gives you a certain floor at that position. And I think he could for the most part match with Chandler Morris was doing and possibly do so with a little bit better protection of the football. So maybe it's a small upgrade there. I look at the roster. There's a lot of things where I like, like particularly what they did in the portal. He's not a big name, but they got Rico Flores, a wide receiver from USC who did not have big numbers. But like, or UCLA, not USC, but I feel like there was so much going on in that offense. And with that team last year that he's a better player than I think his numbers last year for Jack. And I think that in this offense, he might end up having a big season. He's not going to be Trell Harris who left and went to Oklahoma, but still it's a good addition. The schedule is manageable. Yeah. They're not winning the digit games, but they can get to eight wins again. So I'm going over. Yeah, eight and four feels like this. This is another one where I told you I was having some of those unders that I didn't feel great about. It's because I'm leaning heavily in Virginia, being able to keep, keep pace and being able to maintain the, the dozens of wake fans in the audience, but would like to remind us that wake did beat UVA last year in an absolutely, what, 16 to nine type game. I think there was one. I think there, I think there was only one touchdown and it might have been on a partner from Carlos Hernandez, Loco Ocho, so they at least have some vibes in that old like Charlottesville, Winston-Salem, it's not that far. Like I will see if that can become some sort of old school ACC rivalry, but yeah, I just do not see them being outclassed even when they are underdogs. I don't think they're gonna be major underdogs. At SMU is the scariest spot, and so even if you throw that as a loss and put it to the side, do I think that they're gonna be able to get the wins they need to go over the seven and a half? Yes. Now it's at minus 150 at Draft King Sportsbook, real quick rapid fire. Would you do eight and a half at the plus money? No. Same. Yeah, probably not. I think it's worth paying this over the eight and a half because of how like the distribution of the quality of teams on the schedule. Right, I agree. I agree 100%. How many kids are gonna win this fall? It's what they're asking James Franklin. We're not gonna ask you to fill the empty trophy case just yet. James, but first we just need you to be able to go out there and get Virginia Tech back on the winning side because five of the last six seasons of Virginia Tech football have finished with the losing record. Yuck. That ain't Virginia Tech football Virginia Tech came into the ACC in 2004 won the ACC four times in their first six seasons. Traced it all the way to 2016. That would be the first year of Justin Fuente. They ended up winning eight division titles. This was a team that for a dozen years of ACC membership was regularly at the top of the conference. And then it has just been a backslide for about a decade. So James Franklin gets the investment. He gets the endorsement. He steps in, brings in some friends from Penn State, both staff and players, retains Brent pry, a move that I think got Virginia Tech to keep some of their best players that were left over from last year's team. I mentioned Camari Copeland's name in our previous conversation. That would be one that I would certainly mention. He said I could have been a fifth round NFL draft pick. You know, and if I was just over being around, that might have been what I did. But when you retain Brent pry, I wanted to stay and play for him. That's something that's very exciting for the Hokies defense as you project that moving forward. You think Runk Meyer steps in as the quarterback. That is, he is the QB one. No quarterback debates right there. Tom, I'm sad that we didn't get to visit with James Franklin. I enjoyed our visit with Matt Campbell, you know, even there. But how do you think how do you think our friends going to do in Blacksburg? Gear one. Well, I think he's going to do well. You look at the situation overall. They have upgraded their coaching staff. I mean, even just Brent pry moving to DC is an upgrade. And James Franklin has proven he's a better head coach than Brent pry is they have upgraded their roster at a lot of spots. Like they did lose some guys, but I feel like the guys they brought in by and large are better than most of the guys that they lost. And like you're able to maintain and retain some of their better players from last year's team. Now obviously the results weren't great last year. So that doesn't necessarily mean you're going to jump forward. But when you look at James Franklin's tenure, it's not that he's a bad football coach. The problem that he has had is not winning football games. It's been able to beat the elite and prove that he could, you know, beat those teams in those matters. You look at this schedule. There's only one elite team on it. And that elite team is Miami. And if you go back to part one, somebody to keep an eye on here, I mentioned when I was talking about Miami, like you go through every single position group. They're probably the best in the league. Second best at worst. There's one position that I had them as maybe second best at worst. And it's tight end because one of the players brought with him from Penn State is Luke Reynolds. If you are not familiar with him, you will be he's probably going to be the guy catching more passes than anybody else on this roster this season. He's a very good tight end. So I'm high on Grunk Meyer from what we saw of him in his little cameo. Once Drew Aller was out of the picture last year. I thought he was better than Drew Aller for the most part in that offense and what they wanted to do. This is a good team. I don't want to get too overhyped on them because I do get kind of lost in the sauce a bit because I am such a James Franklin guy and I am a fan of a lot of the guys they have on this roster. But like six and a half is a little disrespectful to me for this win total guys. This is this is a team that could easily get to eight and four. I don't see a lot of value in playing the over at that price, but Franklin is typically really typically really good at winning the games he should win and they were not typically very good at pulling the upsets right. So there's three locks on this VMI O.D.U. and Stanford at home right and I think there's two that they're going to be pretty sizable dogs and it'll be at S and U and at Miami. Which means that to get to seven you got to go four and three at Maryland at Boston college, pit at Cal Georgia Tech at Clemson, host Virginia. It's four and three more likely than than three and four. I don't know like I'm a little higher on Maryland than consensus probably. If I had to guess I I think they make a bowl. I see Tom's points for sure at this juice I'm going to just for the show purposes go under I need to go six six. I'm on the over I'm with you Tom. I think that eight and four is in the mix. I'm not ready to jump out on a all the way. Let's take it with the over plus money. But if I feel like eight and four can get there it is though a sneaky tough schedule. I mean if if you want to play the game of if you're going to lose to Miami and SMU then at least the games are on the road. I definitely hear that and think that could be an advantage there. But it's not crazy to think that they drop at Clemson at SMU and at Miami. You know and then are you going to have you going to only lose one game against all the rest of them? That could be difficult. But it's six and a half. This is a seven and five eight and four football team. I'm not ready to drop them to six and six just yet based on the way the team looks the way the coaching staff is set up and how I think that that's going to play out with some favorable games. Certainly out there on the schedule. Coming up on the other side. We're wrapping things up in the ACC with the Wake Forest Demon Deakin's built into darkness year two Jake Dicker and Notre Dame and more. Next. Back here on the cover three podcast, turning our attention to Winston Salem. Where Jake Dickert was hired after Bill Belichick in one five more games. Nine, nine wins finished with a bowl game win. No, and Tom, you'll like this. The way that the line goes is finished with a bowl game win against an SEC team. For some reason, they don't mention it's Mississippi State, which is honestly disrespect for the Mississippi State. Beating Mississippi State in a bowl game should be enough as it is. But enough on that. Let's look ahead. Geo Lopez is going to be in as our new starting quarterback after up and down season with North Carolina. Probably more downs than up. Wake Forest did lose a good bit of their better players to the transfer portal. But even having to start over, I'm finding myself making some assumptions and doing some jumps that the way that they exceeded expectations last year. Maybe mean I need to take them a little more seriously than what my hard, you know, power ratings or talent evaluation might have on my end. Five and a half is the win total at Draft King Sportsbook over at minus one thirty six under it. Plus one fifteen time. Which way are we going? You said that they may have overperformed, you know, last year. I would say that they definitely did. Like you've got a bowl post game win expectancy on me. No, but I will just say like they beat Kennesaw ten to nine. You know, they beat Virginia Tech by touchdown. They beat us and you by a point, which that's not, you know, fluky, but it's not something I would expect to happen to or to be the most, you know, typical outcome in a game against SMU. They had that win about Virginia. We just mentioned. Like they weren't great in a lot of their wins. And honestly, I think Robbie Ashford last year deserved more respect than he probably got. I don't know that he deserved a lot more respect than he probably got. And if you look at his numbers, I don't think there were many quarterbacks Wake could have gotten gone out and gotten that I feel like would have been a downgrade on Robbie Ashford. And then they ended up getting a quarterback who I feel like is a downgrade on on Robbie Ashford. And then there's just the portal reality that Wake faces that they've got to deal with. And it's going to become part of their identity where it's it's like every single dude who does well here is probably going to get poached because we just don't have the financial resources that a lot of the other P4 teams have. So anybody we develop is probably not somebody we're going to be able to hang on to. And that is the reality that they're facing this year. So I think they've downgraded at quarterback. I think they've lost a few of their key contributors. And then I see a schedule that has them having to play Miami that has them having to go on the road against SMU against Louisville against NC State and against Cal. And it's like, man, I just don't see a ton of things going their way. Like they absolutely have to run the table against some teams that I'm not confident enough to think that they can run the table against. I'm going under five and seven I think is more likely than six and six. Yeah, this is a hard one for me because I do think Dickerson like a really good coach. And they can be your smart AD out there. Obviously not rude for him to leave way. Save Jake Dickerson, please. Yeah, I think you're gonna be like hold on like like this is wake. Hey, Jake, you want to come down the road? Listen, we're just saying something so late for Like are you interested in restoring competency? Okay, I They did get picked over pretty hard and transfer portal to me wake profiles more as like a 20 2017 because I think they have some sneaky good guys in this class. They designed who are probably not They're probably too raw To make real impacts as freshmen, but they have like like some athletic traits that you can bet on it It seems to be a wake is doing Recruiting so I think 27 they profile a little bit better I agree with Tom's point overall and quarterback with one exception like he does reunite with his former office coordinator Rova Zell who he was with at South Alabama So Typically I would assign like kind of a high floor grade when coach goes back and gets the player that he had prior kind of like We talked about well, I don't know if we talked about it already, but like with with tech You know going to get grunk fire, right? Like pit and they had him at Penn State. They decided that was the guy they should bring with him to tech so I just how many games are they favored in three? Stanford home Mary Mac and Akron I Think so may do you're probably fair to do Are you favorite on the road it Purdue? I? Don't think so you're not not by any meaningful margin, but but I'll also produce not gonna be some massive favorite Over you be like that. That's one to hit this. They probably need to go get that one, right? Yeah, and then then we're talking about the UVA Cal style like that we we very quickly We're like oh, yeah win win win win and then it drops into I don't know if they can win that game very quickly and they did be UVA last year, but Morris was knocked out of the game. Remember in street clothes pretty early in the second quarter So then I was what 19 to six. I think the final or 16 9 16 to 9 Yeah, cuz cuz UVA is back up a stowing into the end zone. I remember with a chance to tie it. Okay. Yeah, I'm slightly under here I grew to I think five and seven is probably more likely, you know And since I already went over with Duke like I probably should not be going over with with weight given that they play each other in a final game this season Yeah, I know I was I did a little audit of myself for the North Carolina schools I am I'm under on this one as well. So I'm under on the deakes and the heels. I'm over on Duke and NC state the I love that you mentioned him getting back up with Robbie Zell Because there was a sentiment from inside the Wake Forest program. I believe it was on the record, but I don't want to misquote it But that the evaluation was watching Geo Lopez last season and saying why are they using him this way? Like what what you saw everything he did at South Alabama You saw that the way that the offense was built at South Alabama that he was successful Why were you then asking him to do something entirely different and That's that's what he was uh, that's what he was faced with so I think he's gonna have a better season. I think that your points about what they were able to get out of Robbie Ashford was notable We'll see. I'm officially on the under, but if if this team exceeds expectations again, I would not be surprised And it would add to that momentum behind Jake Dickert as one of the top rising coaches in the industry Can I'm up And finally to the ACC's kiss and cousin the Notre Dame fighting Irish Yeah, they play about a handful of games against ACC opponents every single season not a full member But you'll go right here in the ACC windtotal's episode. Why not? Because whoa However under windtotal is 11 and a half Who are they going 12 and oh the under is minus 190 so you're paying a big tax just to root for one loss Overs plus 160 That'd be quite a prop to be able to hit I'm sure if you think they're going 12 and oh you probably think they're capable of lots of things or that CJ car is capable of lots of things But as we peel this thing apart We've got an elite secondary We've got a defensive front that has played at a high level and returns a lot of good players You've got a Running back room that does lose to first round NFL draft picks, but has plenty of young talent that I know that that staff is very very excited about Are they going to do it Tom? Probably not I mean, it's hard to go undefeated. Yeah, so I mean, this is again It's they lost the Northern Illinois at home a couple years ago. Nobody saw that coming now. This team Is I think far better than that team from a few years ago wasn't that team you had a pretty decent season but You look at the schedule. I think the most likely candidate for them to lose is obviously that Miami game even though that's at home But SMU won't be easy like I don't know. I mean BYU on the road that could be a game that they lose It's like you look at those three spots and it's not really really stupid to think that they could lose one of those three games So they're going to be 11 and one at worst probably If they're 10 and two, I don't think they're getting in the playoffs. So they better be 11 and one at worst But this it's a really freaking good football team in they're they're fine So our on your last point Somebody I really respect was like hey all that complaining they did is going to get him in a 10 and two It could and I was like oh Yeah, you're probably right I so it should not be an issue. I mean back to the loser mentality of explaining away nine and three If you are Notre Dame and you're planning against this schedule go finish 12 and 0 Yeah, I I had them 11 and one I think this is like one of the short list teams that can truly like be considered like a natty caliber team I think Man 190 is a big price to pay, but at times point it is also really hard to go into feed it But like the quality of quarterbacks they play is horrendous and this secondary is Ridiculous so like they're they're gonna just eat everybody alive Leonard Moore learn the name Good God. I mean like You know Wisconsin took the old dominion quarterback, which I think is an interesting get but probably not a great fit for what they actually do You know rice Michigan state Purdue Carolina Stanford BYU like Bach Myers are better runner than he's a passer in those receivers are I mean Notre Dame's gonna see better receivers in practice every day than then you know on the second team that then what BYU runs out They're from receiving standpoint. So like even if even if they make that game ugly It's like which I imagine they will that it'll be a dog fight for at least a while. I would think like you still get CJ car Really high level play on both lines of scrimmage and no passing threat from BYU against a legit defense. So They're not gonna play a single decent passing game until Miami comes to town and then like Miami might be Like top three or four in the nation's hard-passed that like the culture shock to that secondary is gonna be really wild to look at you know I mean a Way to look at this schedule like if you're a Notre Dame fan you're not going to games you live somewhere else around the country you watch them at home No, I'm not that's not how I'm saying if you are one of the Notre Dame Okay, he's going to games Like how many winner you finally paying attention to a fourth quarter before you just kind of flip around to see what's going on with the other games Like BYU is that the first time you feel like you're gonna go into the fourth quarter of a game where you're actually kind of like well Shit this game might still be up for grabs. I mean if they slow play Wisconsin and Wisconsin comes out with like fastballs and fury then maybe it gets a little dicey and you're dealing with the one of those I was rewatching Oregon Washington from last year a game that Oregon totally controlled But just wasn't pulling away and then you looked up and it was 1914 with eight minutes left to go in the fourth quarter But then Oregon hit the jets on him. I could see Wisconsin, you know coming up with enough red zone stops and Making that somewhat interesting, but I'm not trying to play semantics. I agree with you It could be October 17th before there's a competitive four quarter game It might be important that they kill Wisconsin if they're it might but I don't know if you guys like that's the one team They play from the big 10 that has any prayer making a bowl I mean how many bowl teams are on the schedule Wisconsin probably Michigan State No Purdue No Carolina No Stanford No BYU Yes Navy Yes, like how many power four ball teams? I mean, I was just saying total bowl teams five or six. Yeah, Navy will go bowling Rice could go bowling I'm not sure how much hey we beat bowl eligible rice is gonna carry with the committee, but We'll find out. Hey, I'll tell you what we'll find out Don't be out here telling you how many teams they beat with that are in the postseason I guess I'm under at at this price You know like 11/2 is is tough to do Things happen Do you know what I do know what my galaxy brain prediction is? I think they do go 12 and 0 I think they get the buy and I think they get beat one and done in the playoff All right, I was thinking along those lines to where Notre Dame fans don't take this as hate I'm just saying objectively if you are not a Notre Dame fan And this team runs rough shot through the schedule all season long and it's 12 and 0 the most the fun is possible outcome would be that getting to the playoff finally playing a team for the first time outside of Miami and then losing because you you haven't been battle tested at any point. And they would have also been off since November 28th. So it would have been about a month off and you're not playing at home. You'll be at a neutral site in the quarter finals as the one seed and here comes either Alabama or LSU coming off an absolute dog fight in the eight nine game. And that's probably the biggest question on this team right is what is the quality of your playmakers? Like I think they have good receivers. I'm not saying they're like outside of the top 20. Do they have will they have one guy emerge who truly scares you come playoff time? Because they're going to tell you they're going to tell you that Jordan face on is just going to continue this ascent. Sure. And I very open to the idea that great house puts it together. And it kind of hopefully does. Haven't we been talking about Jane great house since Barton was on the show? He's still there. I mean it's still it's he's allowed to emerge into a superstar. I'm also I I'm not closing the door in Quincy Porter or Mila Graham. One of those dudes can emerge as it do like they did started Ohio State for a reason. But yeah, I do think the running room backroom takes a slight step back. But I still think it's pretty talented. They just don't have Jeremiah love. I mean they had two freeing first-round picks. It's hard for the them to be bad. But they're they're still pretty good. But yeah, it's yeah, you know what we will say that chip if they do go undefeated and then get housed in their first playoff game. The cover three podcasts will say, well, join a conference nerds. Um, nice. Very good too. I mean like OCDs, he combos nuts. I think Freeman's a good head coach. Yeah. I mean what he's what's it what's Freeman like 43 wins in four seasons. He's just preparing for year five and all he's done is just turn out great teams. Um, also on the past catching side of this, I need to acknowledge that CJ Carr could elevate because that's what great quarterbacks do. You know, his the people who know quarterback evaluation better than me continue to say that in any of my gut instincts that this guy is just operating at a super high level given his experience. Um, he's he's doing it. So he could be the factor as well. So go go. Hey, you know what? Put it on the record. Put it in the newspaper. I'm going over. I'm going over. Let's go. And then you're out in the quarter finals. 12 and 0. One seed. Send your ass to the cotton ball and then you're back home. All right. As we mentioned, um, a little bit of a different schedule this week. Tuesday night, prime time on CBS Sports Network. We'll see the cover three podcasts and extra special season preview edition of Inside College football low cover three takeover. I believe they are calling it over there around studio 44. And then we after getting back, we'll be back with you here on youtube.com/cover3 on Thursday. So up Thursday and Friday for SEC part one and SEC part two. Just about one day bump back for the travel up to the city. And you can follow him on Twitter. Tom can only follow him at battalion three. You can follow me at chip underscore Patterson gentleman. Thank you very much. Thank you. See you. Deathhanner to save the kingdom of urea from so much peril. These are nice ordinary towards bad brother. Sentience killers, swordscorpias, death armor. Fire, insistence, that thing. Whatever that is. So much peril and heroes. This is just the beginning of the story of Hampton Square. Golden that new series streaming September 16th on Paramount Plus.