ACC Win Totals Part 1: Clemson, Florida State, Miami & MORE | 2026 College Football Futures

(upbeat music) - Welcome back to the Cover Three Podcast with your host, Chip Patterson, Tom Fonelli, Danny Cannell, and Bob Elliott. It's your call for the best college football coverage from National Signing Day to the National Championship and everything in between. CBS Sports presents the Cover Three Podcast. - And welcome back to the Cover Three Podcast and cheer on CBS Sports. That's Tom Fonelli. Chip Patterson, come here live. You've got no place to go for your head. Where are you going to go, my cast's on demand? Steps running it out. Smash that subscribe, smash that like and come and join us in the chat, aka the Cover Three tailgate, where they are all ready, dropping their ACC win totals, predictions, projections, and allegations. Already coming out from one of our favorite Texans, but and Danny are scared. - Yes, the ACC win totals, part one, is set to include the Florida State Seminoles. Now, Danny is house shopping, looking for house number four or house number five. He has sent along his picks for the entire ACC and we appreciate that. Tom, but our good friend Bud Fonelli, our good friend Bud Elliott is seemingly occupied. We do expect him though, soon, right? - Yeah, he said he'd be here soon. He's just got to drop some things off. - Yeah, boycotting, the boycotting, the pot. - Delivery to boyboys. Is that what does another one that's coming from the tailgate right now? - I was defending Fonelli's physique and height on Twitter. I also, because we're on Microsoft Edge, hold on. Let me look at the camera. Okay, yeah, how are you guys? - Yeah, we're great, we're great. We're rocking and rolling. - I have a little lighter on your feet right now, bud. I don't know. - Yeah, I feel like the recovery process from Nashville, you gain a lot of really good information, you also probably gain some toxins in your body that can take a multi-day process to cleanse yourself. - Listen, it is all about making sure we shed everything we need to shed, and we prepare ourselves the same way that they are preparing for fall camp. We have been preparing to bring you our ACC win totals. We're not gonna waste any time with any news of the day. So I ask you, gentlemen, you already counted up? - Let's do it. Let's do it. - As much as I think the under is the same play, like I can't eat anything. - Y'all don't want, y'all don't want, how many kids you're gonna win this fall? - I can't fad on any wins. - How many kids you're gonna win this fall? - I just can't, I don't see it. They're not on there, it's not the schedule I'm looking at. Unless there's another schedule somewhere. - Unless there's another schedule somewhere, I don't see eight wins on Boston College's schedule, guys. I'm really sorry. This one's looking a little tough for Bill O'Brien. Seven and six in year one. Whoa, okay, B.O.B's got it going and Chestnut Hill, two in 10 last season and a bad, got worse, big portal exodus. Some of their best players out the door. Now you're trying to recoup everything. We also had an ACC football kickoff, a news item that might have fallen through the cracks. Kaelin Chutinski, one of the best tight ends in the country is gonna be out for the season. So yikes. Recent check-in looks like Mason McKinsey will be our starting quarterback. Also, Bill O'Brien, sitting in that firm. Hey, pressure's on, I'm gonna step up. I'm gonna be the play caller. I'm gonna be the OC on the defensive side. That's our good friend Ted Roof leading a group that is gonna turn over a lot. But I've got this team as maybe an underdog in nine or 10 games. They have three power conference, non-conference opponents, Notre Dame among them with a late season road trip. Oh, can you talk me into optimism? And for those wondering, the draft Kings over underwent total three and a half for the Eagles heading into year three with Bill O'Brien. - Yeah, so I think to say something nice to start, they were really injured last year. Like really injured. And, you know, obviously we had Mitchell on summer school and he detailed all that and does a great job covering Boston College for us. So you really can't use last year's like team rating as a baseline. So I think like there's some positive regression coming just in terms of health, probably even with the tide end being out as we now know. With that said, I think they spent meaningfully less on this roster this year. I don't know if they're trying to put like to do to Bill O'Brien what Oklahoma state did to Gundy or what some people think four states doing to Norbell. But I can't, like I can't see how they spent like 15 on this roster even this year. And I think Mackenzie is sort of an odd fit for what Bill O'Brien typically likes to do. They're probably not double digit dogs more than like four times, right? Like clearly, I'm not asking you at Notre Dame and Miami for sure. But like are you are you catching 10 at home against like Syracuse, maybe Georgia Tech, if Tech's good, we'll see. But like I don't think pits laying 10 at BC that early in the season unless you think BC is just quit. With that said, I'm, we have to make a pick on all these. I'm talking too long in Boston College. We got a lot of show to do. Sorry, guys, I am going to go under, I think the level of the team and the schedule are pretty priced in here. So this is not one I'm like rushing to bet. But I am under for the picks purposes. - You mentioned the amount of money they're spending on the roster. I don't think it's anything to do with Bill O'Brien. I think this is a school that's kind of leaning into basketball. Like they were able to pluck Danny Hurley away, or not Danny Hurley. - Luke Murray. - Luke Murray away from Yukon, you know, that one of his primary Danny Hurley's primary assistance at Yukon and I think that they're putting money into the basketball program. And it's probably cutting into the football budget. And I think you look at like the way that their portal worked, like they got a pretty big class in, but when you compare who left, compared to who they brought in, like losing red hairs, they're, well, receiver hairs on a state. They lose Omar Thornton a safety to Miami. And then they lose Turbo Ritchard. They're running back to Indiana. So you look at the three programs that took those players away. And you're like, okay, those are probably pretty decent players. And they didn't really get the kind of guy that you would think to replace them. So I'm not overly optimistic. You are 100% correct. This team was kind of screwed over by injuries pretty badly last year, but they've already suffered one pretty serious injury with Chudson's get tied in. So yeah, I think three and nine, I'm going under. I'm not overly optimistic about BC. And I will say too, like talking about being big dogs and like some of these home games. Like you see Rutgers, you see Virginia Tech Pit and then Syracuse and FSU, you can throw them in there too. Like for a lot of the other leagues, when it comes to those kind of coin-flippy home games, you kind of just sort of lean automatically to the home team. Strike or I sent you that graphic. There is no league in the country where home field advantage means less than the ACC. Like look, it's not just that they have the lowest win percentage of home teams in conference play over the last two seasons. It's by a wide margin. Like 0.511 compared to the next lowest is 0.545. I'm guessing there are a lot of reasons for that. Like some of the teams on the bottom might not be in the most packed stadiums with the most raucous atmospheres. But for whatever reason, the home field does not mean a whole lot in the ACC. - Before we activate the next VOD here, but do you wanna comment on this one? We don't need it as the headline. But I mean to me, you say that. You throw that as numbers in front of me. I hadn't seen them Tom. I think dead stadium. I just think there's probably more dead stadiums in the ACC than there are in the other power conferences by number. Some of that's 'cause they got a 17 team league. But when we talk about the ACC and its identity crisis, that the way that Florida State and Clemson feel about football and SMU feel about football is not the same as Boston College, that that sort of like wide identity crisis is maybe on display here? I don't know, but that could be reckless. What's your thought? - So although the conference is spread out across the country, you still have a lot of teams that are very close, closely like linked and grouped, right? Like Durham to Atlanta is not a tough trip as far as travel. So you have the triangle schools, Louisville is really reachable, Clemson's reachable, Georgia Tech, like so it's short travel. So I think sometimes when we think home field, we only think about what's happening in the stadium and not the journey to the stadium, you know? So maybe that's part of it. The fact that like going to play at Cal and at Stanford has not really been difficult in recent years just due to their rosters and their coaches. - Buddy, Florida State should be easier on that one. - Right, exactly. Well, hey, Florida State is propping this number up 'cause Florida State is windless on the road and conference in the last two years. - Thank you, Florida State. That's just a success. - We're here in Savannah for home field part. - That's right. Time for watching and got it. And Florida State can win a road game. I mean, you, like it might be home field disadvantage. - Watch out, watch out. How many kids are gonna win this fall? - For record keeping Danny also on the Underford Boston College. Now, what will he think and what will Tom Fonelli think about the cow bears? Toshlupoi takes over at his alma mater and look, Jaren Kiave, Psychopolotelli and Toshlupoi and just sort of the momentum that has been built around cow is gonna be an easy narrative here. the alumni base has been active. motivated. You've got Ron Rivera leading the charge. You know, a lot of just sort of like people and buzz around around Cal football and and doing whatever you need to do to invest in Cal football. Allegedly. Um, okay. So what about the schedule itself? Toss up city is the way that I'm seeing this one. A lot of games are because of the quarterback and because of some of the investments in the transfer portal class, big transfer portal class on defense, especially they are going to find themselves within a touchdown, you know, even as an underdog, not a game that you're just riding off. Tom, how many of those toss-ups do you see? Uh, Cal being able to get over under at over under at draft Kings is going to be six and a half for our number here over plus 125 under heavily juiced. You know, we, we caught a lot of heat from the Cal algorithm last year for, for some of our takes on the bears in our in our in this very show. Um, I'm I'm more optimistic. There are a few reasons for it. Like there is obviously the X factor of having a first time head coach and a new staff and we don't know how that's going to play out the schedule comparatively, not murderous, but you do have a tough noncom game against UCLA. You do have to go on the road to face you in LV, which could be one of the better G six programs in the country. So that that came could be tricky. But when I look at the ACC as a whole a you don't have to play Notre Dame. That's that's a checkmark in your favor. But we've talked about like the quarterbacks and the other leagues. How many teams in this league do you feel overly confident about at the quarterback position? I count like five, maybe six. I mean, not to give away my pick, but my last line was no way to help my laying $1.50 to go under with this quarterback in this conference. Exactly. So like, I feel like Cal has the one of the quarterbacks that I'm like, I believe in this guy. I have confidence in this guy. So that gives them a checkmark in the positive. The other is there is a lot in the portal, but like we talked about Boston College and are really bringing a ton of like, you know, difference maker types. I love D and strong at Rutgers. Ian Strong at Rutgers was one of the best receivers in the country last year, but it's just nobody paid any attention because he played for Rutgers. Adam Muhammad, the running back from Washington is a good player. Dorian Thomas, the tight end that they brought in from New Mexico was a good player for the Lobos. And they also got Chase Hendrix from Ohio, was a good player for the Bobcats. So I think that this team has enough skill on the offensive side of the ball offensive line might not be great, but I don't think it's going to be a huge issue for them defensively. There will be some questions we'll have to see. I'll give LuPoi some benefit of the doubt because of his background as a defensive coordinator and what they brought in the portal. So we'll see how it works. I don't think it's going to be an elite defense, but I look at the schedule. I look at the quarterback. I look at the skill. I'm going over. It's not like I'm like a thousand percent in on it, but it feels like a seven and five kind of eight and four maybe even team if things go right. Yeah, I think the floor here assuming quarterback health is extremely high. I mean, like just, Jones really, really good. And the talent they have at receiver, I think, is proven. So I had no doubts about that. I think the offensive line is okay. Major worry for me is defense of depth. We did our Cal summer school, one of the last ones. And it was big time. Like, yeah, the starters got a chance to be good. And the depth is will buddy. And which will matter because they will be in a lot of shootouts this year for sure. Like there's a lot of teams that can score in them. But if you're watching on YouTube, which of course YouTube.com/coverthrough podcast, I think they can go for and to through October 10th. That's UCLA at Q's Wagner Clemson at UNLV and Virginia Tech. If you do that, then you got to clip three of the final four to get over your six and a half here, right? Which would be hosting Wake. And then you go at SMU at NC State at Virginia. That's a hard stretch by ACC standards. But then you come home to Stanford and you come home to Pitt. I think they can find three on the right side and four on the left side to get to over here. And it's not like an extremely strong bet for me, but I'm not paying $1.50 to go to, you know, say they're going to lose five, you know, or sorry, to lose six, rather with this QB. I mean, how many quarterbacks in the ACC are you excited about five at like, yeah, like that I feel confident in like at least that I want you're selling yourself on Ethan Grunk Meyer. If you're starting to get to like six or seven, that's what I'm saying. It's like I like Grunk Meyer. I'm not going to sit there and say that I think he's like I have confidence he's going to be a good QB. Like there are five teams where I look at and say that's not an issue for me at the quarterback position. That's good enough. Yeah. Like do you have a favor with Clemson at home? They could be. Yeah. I made it a toss up, but you know, my toss ups are a little liberal. And especially it's like it's a toss up range that nobody's double to get on either side assuming health. Yeah. And the vibes that we can apply to road trips to the Bay Area from what we have seen from the two years of Cal membership suggests that it's very, very possible, very, very possible to be able to go out there and lay in it. I mean, this was SMU. One field goal away from playing in the ACC championship game and potentially being in the college football playoff. And yet they weren't able to get the job done. So, you know, Pitt's going to be on alert for Ginutech, Clemson. They're going to get somebody who's who walks in there as a favorite. And I think quarterback and vibes will be a big part of that one as well. Number one candidate for all of us, like, like listening to each other on Saturday recap, but actually like watching something off screen is this team for sure. They're gonna be exciting and fun to watch. Also, just totally, like, little side ramp here. I'm, I'm cooling on UNLV. Have you, yes, with the Alex Orgie comments? Yeah. I saw a video of Dan Mullin talking after practice. And that man looked exasperated. It looked like he was like, tell us about the quarterback battle. Well, they're battling. Yeah, they're battling both of them are battling. Jackson and Alex, they're battling. And I'm like, oh, my brother in Christ. If Jackson Arnold cannot win that starting job, then we're reeling back some of our thoughts on UNLV college football playoff donors. Can I try to reel you back in a little bit? Yeah, sure. Look at that schedule for UNLV. Yeah. But they're going to lose the cow. That's fine. That doesn't count the conference. But it counts to make the college football playoff. If you're playing a game, they lose. UNLV is going to need to go 12 and now or 13 and hour 12 and no, no, no, no, no. No, I think there's a pretty strong chance the G5 is like a two lost team. Yeah. All right. Well, this ain't the G5 show. We'll get to that later. Nobody's a G5 show. Turning our attention to the Clemson Tigers who, yes, as we discussed, did find themselves inside the coaches of pole, top 25, but forget about top 25s. We got Chad Morris back. We got a Chris Vizina Tate Reynolds quarterback battle. That was Sweeney explaining with an emphasis that the pole position is held by Vizina. Will the freshmen push him? That's not my question. My question is, can you run the dagum football offensive line? Huge question marks for offensive line coach Matt Luke. They've got to be able to go and solve those problems because they went shopping in the portal and they didn't come back with much. You can't say they didn't try, but they didn't finish where they needed to in order to help this offense. Take a step forward. In my opinion, wide receivers are excellent. I think the defense is pretty good on the perimeter of some injuries interior defensive line. Got me a little bit concerned, but which way are we attacking the Clemson Tigers? Seven and a half is our number at draft King Sportsbook over juice to minus 140 under at plus 120. I think it's important just to start out. We don't confuse. They're really far away from what they used to be with making 75% of the C standards. I do think there's a chance they could start two and three. At that point, I'm worried about the vibes. For them, that game at Cal, assuming they can't beat Miami and LSU, which I am assuming that. I know what the spread says, but maybe it's a pre-requone. I like their skill position stuff quite a bit. But if you start two and three and you're already out of the conference race again after what happened last year with that balloon just deflating, then some of those games on the right hand column become a little bit more challenging. This is not a strong play for me because it's like Clemson line at seven and a half is pretty clearly like they've already been making in the regression of this program. For pick purposes, I'm going to go under clearly. I am a Clemson hater because I balked at the idea of a team with a win total of seven and a half being ranked in the coaches poll. And I just accused the coaches of being lazy and picking a team that they were familiar with instead of a team that they actually looked at. But clearly, the win total of seven and a half says we are dealing with an elite squad going into this season. I'm not going to harp on it too much like this program has been trending in the wrong direction for a few years now. I this is not one of those teams where I look at the QB situation and I have confidence in maybe vizina will be good. I don't know. It's just that's the problem. I don't know and I feel like if I'm Clemson and I want to be the team that I thought I'm supposed to be for the last few years, I should be more confident. I do like what they have a receiver. I like Wes. Yeah. The offensive line, a shrug, they lost their best offensive line into the NFL and that offensive line last year was not great even with him defensive line. I would expect Clemson's going to be good on the defensive line just because they always are, but they lost a ton of guys. They pretty which lost her entire defensive line to the NFL and they haven't recruited it at the same level in the high school ranks that they had in years prior, so the confidence level and the replacements there are not as high. That said, I still think they are more talented than most of the teams on their schedule. So I've got them going eight and four slightly more often than seven and five. So I do have the over here, but it is not with a high level of confidence. And this is also a situation where they could lose to LSU, they could lose to Cal, and they can lose to Miami. And if they're two and three after their first five games, does the culture hold on for the rest of that schedule or do things just really go sideways? Yeah, of course it holds on. That's your Davos Swini. I mean, how many times does Davos Swini made you feel like that eight and four was the best eight and four you've ever seen in your life because they rallied back and beat Clemson, you know? I'm not beat Clemson, beat Notre Dame. What was that season? Remember, they finished playing Kentucky in the Gator Bowl that year, a couple of seasons ago. I'm over here to your point. And this is, this is like how many teams definitely have more talent than Clemson in the ACC? Miami. Miami. I'd rather have got some you. Yeah. SMU's not on the schedule. Louisville's not on the schedule. You know, it's just they still are going to be rolling out, tying up their shoes and still having an advantage. And I actually think that where I do question culture at Florida State, I don't at Clemson. I think that if they take their lumps early, I do think they'd be able to rally and build up all the moral victories that they would need in the back half of that schedule, finish strong and be able to, you know, say something about it. And that's something that I do trust the longevity and the performance of Davos over time, not to be able to make it to the College Football Playoff six years in row, like you did in the previous decade, but absolutely to keep the team from going off the rails. I think that's possible. So a lot of this comes down to wise as a quarterback battle. Is it because Vizina sucks, which is kind of what I think or is because Reynolds is ahead of schedule and really good? Like if he is making this quarterback battle because Vizina is a competent college quarterback and he's just much better than competent, then Clemson is going to sail over. If Reynolds is making this quarterback battle because Vizina just can't play, then I think it's interesting. But like Will Clemson go with the veteran to start the season in Death Valley or where they really throw take Reynolds out there. I can totally see Chip's point of your role, Vizina out there. They start two and three. They're like, all right, screw it. We're throwing Reynolds in and they play hard down the stretch. Yeah. Let's throw out the name's Cole Stout. Let's throw out the name's Kelly Bryant. Yeah. I've done this before. There's a playbook of let's feed the veteran to get the season started knowing that our freshman gives us a higher ceiling by the end of the season. The other unknown here, I know we got to move on. Was Garrett Riley really running Garrett Riley stuff or how much was he made to run the Clemson offense? Because that matters a lot when you ask how much does the changing office coordinator matter here? Like how different is this really going to be under Chad Morse? Considering with direction to have a win, I think we know the likely answer to that question. Yeah. I want to call one thing out here. Our friend, Kaden Jennings in the chat who says I clearly don't keep up with Clemson because Blake Miller, their best offensive line. It was asked. Yeah. You're right, Kaden. And that's probably why he went as the 17th overall pick in the NFL drafts to the Detroit Lions because he was asked. Because I don't want to keep up with my team. Top five drafting team in the last half decades. Yeah, Dan Campbell definitely done pretty good. They seem to be pretty good in the offensive line every single year. So I feel like they know what they're doing, but you're right. Kaden, I'm not the one who's keeping up with the team you root for. Coming up on the other side, how about the the champs? The ACC champs from 2025. Let's look at the next season ahead for many DS, the Knowles and more. This episode is brought to you by PNC Bank. If you've ever watched a football game with someone who doesn't normally, you might have been asked, like, what's the point of running the ball up the middle? In short, to the uninformed eye, these plays are boring, but they result in a lot of short, reliable gains while managing the clock. It's just like why PNC uses a boring methodical approach because reliable gains while keeping an eye on the time are just as important for your money as they are in football. PNC Bank brilliantly boring since 1865 brilliantly boring since 1865 is a registered mark of the PNC Financial Services Group Inc PNC Bank National Association member FDIC. Back here on the cover three podcast where we're celebrating feisty time at full lung capacity. Hey, Rhett, lay off my guys lungs, all right. He still has two of them. How about that guy getting cooked by Duke with one lung at that store-proboling podcast? Yeah, we're going to be on on CBS Sports Network next week in studio in studio 44, and Tom's not going to be able to make it, but a time I like your idea, we need to have you coming from an iron lung. I get him maybe deliver mail bag questions or offer expert picks. We'll see. Lots to be able to get to, but we turn our attention back to the business at hand and that includes over underwind total for the reigning ACC champion Duke Blue Devils five and a half wins. Over minus 130 under plus 110. So real easy. I kind of like these ones for the purposes of trying to debate it. Will Duke make a bowl? If they do, I think it'll be because some recruiting wins are starting to pay off because Bryce Davis is a good edge rusher who was in the 2025 class. We saw Nate Shepard emerge late last season as a very, very good running back. He was in the 2025 class, and as Duke was opening up camp, but I don't know if Walker's going to get this starting job for sure. They got day in may hand. Another part of the 25 class that's that's been pushing for the the starters here. Look, they won nine games with Malik Murphy. They won nine games with Dairy and Mensa. I think some program respect is probably due there in the fact that they've just been figuring it out, dragging the end of the sewer. So Tom, what are we doing with the Blue Devils? It brings me no joy to be going well under on this. I think that there is a drop off of coming. And I don't blame Mandy Diaz for it. I just blame the reality of the situation where A, like you went seven and five in the regular season last year and you won in the ACC, but then you also lost to Yukon and who was the other G5 team. Old Dominion. You lost. No, it was a two lane two lane. Sorry, sorry. So you lost to Yukon two lane. You lost by 26 at home, Dylan. Oh, you just kind of beat up on the ACC, which as we've discussed was not the best version of the ACC last year. And you did it with a very good quarterback in Dairy and Mensa, who not only left, but kind of left you at the last minute, leaving you in a situation to where your only real option was to go get Walker. He get from San Jose State. And I am not trying to dog Walker. Didn't mean to say that. But I just, he's not Dairy and Mensa. And Dairy and Mensa did a lot of the work for this team last year in helping him win all those games. So I look at the players they lost. And Mensa clearly is the one that gets most of the attention, but he's not even the only guy on their team that ended up going to Miami. Like, they got pilfered. They also lost Barcai, you know, their receiver was going with them. They lost to Virginia Tech. Is Sean Browning, another receiver. Like, these were productive players for this team. And I don't know that they backfilled. I don't know that I could sit there and look at their recruiting classes and say they have the guys coming in to replace them. And then I look at that schedule. They're on the road for Illinois, Georgia Tech, Virginia, NC State, Miami, and then Wake at the end of the year. That's a difficult road schedule for Duke. And then the home schedules got Clemson. It's got North Carolina. It's got Tulane who maybe they lose to again or maybe they beat this time. I don't know. But man, I just don't see it over here. I don't think they're going bowling. The quarterback battle piece does scare me because it makes me wonder is it the injury thing, you know? A walker. Yeah. Yeah. And like, you know, they should beat Tulane regardless. I think given what Tulane lost at Illinois, they're a dog that we favored over Stanford. We favored over William and Mary. Like at Georgia Tech, we'll see. I think I mean, they're clearly a dog. I don't know if they're a huge dog. A lot of it's going to depend on quarterback. You know, they're probably favored over Carolina at home. I would say. Yeah. Um, I guess we know where chips go on that one. So, I am, I have to pick an over on one of these bad teams, right? Not everybody's going to go two and 10 or three and nine. So the way my number is shook out, I am over here slightly. Um, I think it's really like trust in coach and GM, like, but nuke is really sharp. I think Duke is like one of the most well run front offices and like, he's the brains behind that operation. And I do think Manny and him work well to get her crafting the roster. Now, granted, they probably didn't foresee losing Mensa at the gun. Um, but I'm going to go over here just ever so slightly. Yeah. I'm over ever so slightly. I think they find a way to make it to a bowl game. And it might not be pretty, you know, they talk all about like dragon you into the sewer, but those games against a North Carolina, a Boston college, you know, you're, you're going to be able to fill your bucket a little bit and stack some wins to go with Bill and Mary. Then it becomes a question. You talk about the Georgia Tech Virginia Wake Forest. All those games are winnable. And last year, they did Ivedarian Mensa to help them in one-score games. So that could be the reason that they fall short. But ultimately, they have found answers to questions and exceeded expectations basically for the last three to four years. I'm willing to say that they're going to figure out a way once again, win. Ultimately, you throw out the Illinois Miami Clemson games. They're not outclassed dramatically in any other game on the schedule. So do I think they can go through against the other nine opponents? Find a way to get us get to six wins. I'm going to say yes. And I'm going to lean on the recent history for that. How many kids are going to win this fall? It's an important question for Dan Skye Mike from Mike Norville. But I mean, look, let's get nitty gritty and then we can go to the vibe checks. I don't know if they are good enough in the trenches. I love the way they look at the perimeter. You know, the running back room, wide receivers, I think they've got probably some players on the perimeter of the defense as well. It's got a little bit of that flavor where they have players, a few players who would walk on to any other ACC roster and be a starter right away. But they don't have Florida state depth. They don't have flow. You know, they don't have a they don't have an overwhelming amount of those players. And that's why they find themselves what they win total of six and a half at Draft King Sportsbook that is heavily used to the under at minus 175. So what's the what's what's the vibe to be able to connect the dots on what we know about the team? Yeah, they like to say something nice. They do have some good players, right? Like do says legitimately really good player. You know, Rawls is a guy that a lot of people, you know, one of them the portal and they kept. You know, I was really down on them signing, you know, why is there a who text is basically cut? That's like, that's dead money. But at the same time, I think I'd rather have him be dead money than Chroma be dead money. And Chroma, like, remember, I've talked to his looked awesome at camp. And I was a former number one back in the country who kind of had a slow year as a freshman. So I'd rather have that guy hit his ceiling, you know, and have you burned the money on wise, or hit with him sitting on the bench, although they'll probably both play, you know, some. I have a hard time thinking the offensive line is not a step back from what it was last year. Just your hit rate on the transfers last year on the offensive line was extremely good. And they still, you know, didn't make a bowl. Schedules really hard by their standards for a team with this level of talent. You know, you lose Darrell Jackson. I'm not bought in on the idea of their fine replacing him at all. I think that's going to be a continuing problem for the defense. I do like Ashlyn Barker's safety. I think he's a nice keep for them. I think I've got a lot of experience on this team, you know, tied in. I was not a fan of their take there in the portal at all. And obviously quarterback like we know he wasn't their top choice because they brought in like how many guys on official visits and weren't even close to meeting, meaning the ass price. So they, you know, pretty badly misjudged how much quarterback was going to cost, I think. So with that said, I would not bet under six and a half minus $1.75 for a team with this many coin flips, right? If I was going to play the under, I would go under five and a half plus one 50 because this team has a real history of quitting on Mike Orbel, right? Like if I, if I'm getting, you know, what, 125 cents to the better. And I just need to go five and seven to cash for a plus one 50. It's opposed to, you know, six and six to cash. What's that? And if I think that's, I think I'd say better play, you know, and a lot of it will come down to, you know, are you, are you two and three through the first five? Right? If you do, I expect they'll quit on Mike Orbel again. And then we'll see if it's a time Herman team. Also, you know, when I was talking about like on Twitter, you know, how just talking to some of these general managers at schools, like the big 10 teams don't seem to deal with like some of like the money hungry cultural problems, you know, and like some of the like the agent nonsense. I do think that this team skews pretty heavily towards like guys who only want to be there because they were, that was their top dollar offer, right? I don't think there were a lot of guys signing up to go play for Mike Orbel in this situation. So I think that kind of lends to, you know, like how much do they really care? Yeah, college football in 2026. But I don't think you're stealing one under six and a half minus dollar 75. Yeah. I, I know that you're down on Ashton Daniels. I happen to believe that he's an upgrade over the quarterback you had last year. I can buy that. I think that that's an improvement. Although that said, like I have a type at quarterback. And Ashton Daniels is certainly fits that mold of the type that I tend to fall in love with despite my own best interests. But he does fit the mold. I do think that he's kind of a roller coaster. But I do think the highs, there could be enough of them, whereas maybe he couldn't hack it in the SEC. But against this schedule outside of a couple of games, he's got a chance to be possibly the best quarterback on the field. And I don't know that that has often been the case in his career at Stanford. And then last year at Auburn. So to me, that's a positive. I do like what they have at the skill positions on offense. I think do Providence is very good. I love whizner. I like dancing. I do have questions about your offensive line defensively. It's hard for me to look at a team that loses Earl Little and Edwin Joseph on the back end to the transfer portal. And say, I feel confident about that secondary. And they're because those two were like, you know, they were two year better players, but they were also two of like the difference makers as far as a house. States are a little by the way. Like I know a lot of four state fans think that he's not a good, but like, yeah, I'm going to trust Ohio State staff and held a lot more nitrous four state staff. And they they love him so far. Yeah, there's guys get a lot worse once they leave for some reason. I don't know it's weird. But I just, yeah, this could be a team that has to be, you know, a little too shoot out at times. And that's going to hurt them quite a bit against the better teams on their schedule. But I just need them to get to seven wins to go over. I think they can do it. I think as long as it isn't a full-blown mutiny, this team can get to seven wins. So I'm a slight over. Okay, history of full-blown mutiny has me going under. I think they can have seven. They could they could be flirty. And they've seven loseable games before November. They can go three and nine and you're eight and four. Yeah, I mean, like I think that's really scheduled. Like a real range start filling it up and all the sudden, you know, cash in and eight and four season that you feel good about. But godly, I mean, Virginia is not guaranteed. And what's Virginia going to be like if you lose to SMU and Alabama? And then you're going on a short week out to go play Louisville, then you got to play against Miami. No, this is this stinks. It's it's not great Bob. And and I'll be going under again. I'm but like you. I'm not racing to do it. I'm not trying to do bad vibes. I've got my little cold beers and gator tears glass from our friends at medicine social, you know, got my little crying gator on that side. But yeah, I stand with you in solidarity. Hope it's not as depressing as it looks. But I'll be going under on that one and your alt under would certainly be the season flies off the rails situation. I was working on the coach rankings in ACC breakout of our national coach rankings. And Brent Key just had a breakthrough nine win season and didn't really move in the coach rankings. It's like he already had his surge of like, oh, wow, this guy can coach because I think Georgia tech is who Georgia tech is. Brent Key is who Brent Key is. We know exactly the identity of this team, the way that they want to be built. Tag on they're going to run the bow. Goodbye, Jamal Haines. Hello, Justice Haines. We got Malachi Hoseley as well. This is going to be a team. Don't forget about the Mendoza on the depth chart. This is going to be a team that's asking Mendoza not to sling it, but to hand it. They'll be running the football. They'll be trying to play good defense. They got one of the best kickers in the country in Adenburg. Get ready to learn games in the 20s because they are going to have nine minute offensive possessions and try to shrink this thing and give themselves a chance to win. Now look, you can do that against this schedule and find your way to a seven and five season, which would be over the window at Draft King Sportsbook, six and a half, which is slightly juiced to the under. Tom, do you see the game plan working out for Brent Key as he prepares for 2026? I believe that if you are buying the over here, you are buying the schedule because you look at that home slate. Intenacy is the most difficult, I would say home game on there. Maybe Louisville, depending on how you feel about both of those teams, but you see a path to quite a few wins at home, right? Like there's a lot of coin flipping games with, although again, home field advantage, the ACC, not really what we think it is of everywhere else. That said, I love the addition of Justice Haynes at running back. I think that fits exactly what they want to do and what they want to be on that side of the ball. Alberto Mendoza, I don't know who he is. We saw him a lot and fourth quarters of blowouts, but that's not in games that matter. So we don't know who he is. is when the game truly is on the line, and he's got to make actual decisions, and it's not just, let's score 100 points against these losers. Defensively, I don't know, like they only allowed 25 points per game last year, but I think some of that is papered over by the fact that as you mentioned ship, they controlled the ball in offense. So the defense wasn't on there a lot. There weren't a ton of possessions in their games. I don't think that defense was anything special. I don't know that the defense is gonna be anything special this year, but what it ultimately comes down to in the end for me is buster Faulkner's gone. And how much credit were we giving him for this offense the last few years, and for what he was able to do, like Brent Key is the man at charge, and he's probably gonna be the same kind of culture, same kind of team, but how much of a difference maker was Faulkner in that offense and that play calling, and now he's at Florida, and will they be able to have the same effectiveness on offense? I'm not as convinced. I think that the culture wise of the team, like they're gonna get to a bowl more often than not, but do they get to seven wins? I don't know. I'm taking the under. - Yeah, I echo Tom's comments. When I modeled this, I was like, I have like six and six coming out quite often, but that is an under. The only thing I'll really add, I think Haynes King was like a really special fit for that offense, and we know how excited they were about FILO, and both those guys are gone. And Alberto can move like he's a decent athlete, and do love the backs. Defense has been sneaky awful for a while. So I am under here slightly. I think the road schedule is pretty difficult. Like they should go out and beat Stanford, but they're not at that level where I'm like, that's a total lock to go on the road of the West Coast and win. Like in Miami's not gonna lose Stanford, I wouldn't think, right? Like, you know, but at Votteck is tough. I think at Pitt for a team of this quality is difficult. That Clemson assuming that like they're, you know, still not checked out, right? Which like I think we all think with Davo, they might not be checked out. And then at Georgia, obviously, to finish the year. So I'm under here. - No way, absolutely not. I mean, just brothers in the Georgia Leary coaching tree, okay? George Godsy is our new offensive coordinator filling in for Buster Faulkner. Who was the quarterback when Brent Key was on the offensive line for Georgia Tech in the late 90s in the early 2000s. They worked on the UCF staff together early on in their careers and Godsy was, you know, most recently with the Baltimore Ravens, which has had, you know, some success in terms of being able to help coaches transition both into the college game and also out of Wink Martin Dale, obviously, you know, stands out as kind of a one-of-one in that case. I think that it is an alignment of identity. I'm not gonna say that he is an upgrade at all over Buster Faulkner. I'm just not ready to go with the downgrade here. They do need to play games on their terms. But listen to this, this sounds crazy. If Georgia Tech plays every game on their terms, they could be seven and one in conference play and make it to Charlotte. But that's not the way football works. You don't play every game on your terms. I think that there's some games here that could get very, very tricky. If all of a sudden they find themselves a little bit out of their depth. I mean, this is a team that can win 24/21 or all of a sudden they can't get stops. Remember, CJ Bailey carved this Georgia Tech defense up late last season when Georgia Tech had made it all the way up inside the top 10. All that said, six and a half a little too low for me. I think I'm gonna be going over. I think they're gonna run the dang ball and I think that they'll be able to ride and win a very specific kind of way. Did you have something Tom? - No. - Okay. Well then, coming up on the other side, keeping things moving with, look at Jeff Brom. His new transfer portal quarterback, the Miami Hurricanes, NC State and more. - Next. I learned so much from our ad. - Get 'em up! - Yeah, NFL wasn't paying the kind of money till we're getting drafted in the NFL Guaranteed. It was a good employment opportunity for you, you know? Like when we make the jokes about how Jerry West was playing against plumbers, plumbers were probably making more money than some NBA players back in the day. So, no. - No. - No, no, no, no. Although plumbers do make more money than a lot of people with useless college degrees. - That's true. - They're in debt for. - Yeah. Hey, listen. If you don't think I've got punt and pooch outside, looking at the air conditioning unit, we're talking about condensation lines. We're talking about drip patterns. - Hell yeah. - Try and get ready to go. - Precision hold maintenance is important. - Yes. - Like if you don't get it done now, you're gonna forget to do it. - Maybe we'll take up a, and I don't know, no free ads. You come and talk to us. Reach out to Striker and Claire. We'll get you choked up. We need to turn our attention to the Louisville Cardinals. Who, I've mentioned this before. I love the inside outsider split on this. An outsider looks at the Jeff Brom air at Louisville. It's like, man, this is awesome. And an insider is like, why in the world were we foreign for an ACC play last year? I mean, this is a team that was good enough to get up and beat Miami, and a team that was also able to lose as a double digit favorite at home to Cal. I mean, the splits behind the performances, the inconsistencies. Maybe it was just a quarterback position where Miller Moss did not connect at all, the way that he was expected to. But, you know, is there gonna be other things that need to be corrected? I'm looking at the schedule and the Ole Miss opener just feels massive. He also games early in the season that will really dictate the tone, SMU at home, NC State on the road. Defensively, I like up front. Lubin, Green are gonna be your stars there. Secondary could end up being pretty good. Keeping Isaac Brown from the transfer portal at the running back was huge. Kiwan Brown also played well. And a little piece from, you know, as they're getting going with fall camp, I think Lincoln Keenholtz is gonna be scooting. We remember when Lincoln stepped in at Ohio State, it was a lot of just sort of utilizing his athletic ability. But I've got my eye on some trade Richardson foot surgery recovery. I don't know if he's all the way back yet, but a very, very gifted player who could be a dynamic part of that passing attack. But I'll let you get first word here. What are we doing with the Louisville Cardinals? Win total at eight and a half, over plus 124 under minus 158. - I mean, this is boring, but I'm showing like a zero edge on this. This is like almost exactly like where I priced it to the cent. Agree with you, I think Keenholtz will be scooting. Also worried, just saw this on Twitter. Isaac Brown, not practicing off to the side with the trainer. So, you know, we do have what, four weeks until that old Miss game, but he is, he's one of the absolute, like very best running backs, like on the very short list in the entire country. And is a really important piece of that offense, he's a home run hitter. And so that scares me a little bit if he's at all dinged or limited against like an old Miss or an SMU, which, you know, it's four and six weeks out, man. But this schedule, like, if Keenholtz can play, they should be able to handle this. You know, that's just really kind of the question. We have not seen him play. Do you have blind faith in Jeff Brown with quarterbacks? Generally, I tend to. I'm showing no edge, I guess under. Yeah, that's how he says, like, I'm not gonna tell you to go back minus 158. Like, they play a lot of bad defenses on the stretch to Ryan's point in the chat, for sure. Yeah, Tom. I, I took the under eight and a half on Louisville last year and I got yelled at by Louisville fans who were always telling me that I'm always taking the under. But I can't remember who it was, but there was one brilliant Louisville fan out there that pointed out that I do always take the under on Louisville. And then in the last six years on the show, I've gone five and one in my Louisville win total picks. And then I went six and one because Louisville did finish under. So I know more about Louisville than Louisville fans do. So my pick here means more than anything. And I'm once again on the under. I, it's not a situation where I don't like the team. I do like the team. I think schedule wise, there are some tricky spots here. There are the question marks at quarterback. I'm with Bud, like I have faith in that a Jeff Brown QB is going to be fine. But like Miller Moss was fine last year. He just wasn't a difference maker. So even if Lincoln is fine, does he make enough of a difference to help them win games? Can they withstand some injuries? And if Brown's already banged up now and he's playing a position that gets banged up quite a bit, you have to rule in the possibility that he might get dinged up during the season and miss time. I look at the schedule. I'd rather have SMU and Florida State and even Pitt on the road than the Georgia Tech Syracuse or NC State games on the road because I feel like they're more winnable if they have to come to my place and if I have to go there. So it's not, it's not a schedule you look at and say, damn, how are they going to win all those games? But it is a schedule that's more difficult than you probably think on the surface. And I honestly think it really just could come down to the Ole Miss game. Like instead of betting the over or the under, just if you think it's going to go over bet the Louisville money line versus Ole Miss, if you think it's going to go under bet the Ole Miss my line. It'll probably go that way. I'm on the under ever so slightest. I'm not going to rush to tell you to lay a bet at minus 150. But I'm a little bit shook from some of the incons-- I mean, they were the team two years ago out at Stanford, right? Yeah, man, come on. We got to tighten the screws on that just a little bit. All right. Speaking of another coach who's spent four years tightening the screws before finally getting the breakthrough to deliver on everything that was promised. Let's turn our attention to the you. Miami Hurricanes have an over-under-wind total at Draft King Sportsbook of 10 and a half over -110 under -110. That massive Notre Dame game is going to be sitting there as a big piece of the picture. But so is you know, asking if they're going to be able to do something they have not done in 21 years of ACC membership and that's when the ACC they did not even make the ACC championship game last year even though they were in the college football playoff making it as an at large they did make it in 2017 though obviously did not win the ACC that season. Darien Mensa's arrival has been well documented you bring back Malachite Tony you bring back Mark Fletcher you bring in Damon Wilson on the defensive side where I mean it's interesting to listen to Miami spring practice takeaways where they had so many veterans that they felt so good about that they didn't even really have to put in a lot of work guys like a Fletcher or Wilson just you know who they are so all that time spent on the depth and the development of the next guys that are up. So still pretty old at some positions as well Tom what you're going to be doing with with the you a team that as we discussed throughout all of this the best team on paper just the best team in the ACC are they going to be able to go out and show that weekend week out. Let's play a quick game here like I think you could make an argument that their number one in each one of these spots but I think you there are arguments that to be number two I don't think there are arguments that this team. Is lower than second best in the ACC at quarterback I don't think it's lower than second best at running back I don't think it's lower than second best to receiver offensive line defensive line linebacker secondary like this is the best team in the league pretty much every damn position on the depth chart they haven't won the ACC yet they're going to win the ACC this year it's it's a foregone conclusion I am sorry they are going over they are going to beat the crap out of most of these teams on a weekly basis the only game I look at on that schedule that I have legitimate. Fear about is Notre Dame everything else I mean maybe they get caught and then upset it somewhere maybe they lose it Clemson maybe they lose it floored state after getting in a back and forth brawl with Clemson and just barely pulling out of win but like come on man they're the best team in this league they're back up defensive tackles are better than most of the starting defensive tackles in this league they're going to win all these games. How many teams would you need to combine their rosters before you would take them over Miami on our neutral. In this game if I gave you Louisville plus S in you. I'm still taking Miami I'm taking Miami yeah now if you give me like three or four give me for Genie Tech hey give me for Genie Tech so I can get like Camari Copeland yeah like some of them like now we're talking a game yeah yeah but I think that hypothetical kind of underscores our point I'm also over I think they go undefeated so I think they go in South Bend and get the win. I I think they kill everybody on this schedule and like we talked about the imbalance of schedule strength now with these super conferences it's not often you get like by far the best team that also has like a bottom three schedule difficulty right and they do so over. No Louisville yeah it was what about quarterback injury if we're going to say that's a huge thing yeah yeah that'd be the that'd be the one piece of this like you know if we're going to say something nice about Boston college at the start of the show before telling you how the season's going to be so rough if we're going to pump the tires for for Miami because I agree I'm on the over here I mean I think that 11 and 1 12 and those are those are the scenarios we're talking about and 10 and 2 honestly against this schedule is a damn disappointment what what games though are you actually worried about it they had if they missed Mensa for a game see that's what I was about to bring up like I if Mensa gets hurt and is out for the year they're not going to win the national title but even if they just have like whether it's Luke nickel or Judd Anderson coming in fulfill in for Darian Mensa for most of this ACC schedule we can just hand the damn ball off will be fine we'll give no opportunities that could beat them in Miami. Oh that mean anything yeah it's fair yeah but if they're a top five team Virginia Tech and James Franklin have no chance. Mean is mean your eyes peeled on Monday our part two will be going live for time gets to weigh in on Virginia Tech I had a second best team in the country in my top 19 25 so you know like ultimately. Yeah I think they they dog walk this schedule yeah should be it it is the it is a true the u is back crystallization. In that they really can say the practices are harder than the games like they told us in the documentaries you know it really is the competition Tom said it the competition a defensive tackle is between a guy who's going in the NFL draft and a guy who would start at almost every other ACC team. And that's what we've got it'll be just execution at this point best team in the league let's see if they can go and prove it. Wrapping up this part one with the NC state wolf pack shout out to my guy niece he is dubbed him Dave the 14th with you know the XIV as we prepare for a year 14 of the Dave Doran era C.J. Bailey back obviously as well. Jojo Trader in the house Dave on Gauss in the house you know everybody made a big deal about how C.J. Bailey was the quarterback for Jeremiah Smith where now we're just putting the whole high school team back together here in my back yard over in West Raleigh defensively they were not great last season and they need to take steps forward if they're going to be able to capitalize on a schedule that is an absolute gift one of the more favorable draws that you're going to see at the entire power conference level which is what leads to one of those are you buying the team or are you buying the schedule. But I'll start out with you here are you buying the team or are you buying the schedule as we look at the pack in 2026. It's a little of both the this is the easiest conference schedule in this league and I think the non conferences you know pretty manageable like I if I'm going to play Vandy I think I want to play Vandy early while Jared Curtis is still you know early on in his freshman campaign and how many games they favored in one two three four five six seven eight nine at least nine. Yeah I think that's that's probably about right you know but you could start two and three you could you could you like you certainly could start two and three. But that's what you got a factor in when you're picking the over under I am going to go over here I think I trust David Dave Dorn to get this team dating for maybe more like eight not nine. Yeah I buy more into the schedule than I do the team like I do have some serious like they lost some pretty important players to that offense in the portal and I don't know that they can replace them but they do still have the quarterback who like I don't think C.J. Bailey is incredible but in the pecking order of ACC cubies and what I know right now I'm higher on him yeah I'm higher on him than most. So I think that provides a serious advantage I think getting trader for Miami's cool I mean we'll see how Duke Scott does filling in for Hollywood defense. Oh they are excited about Duke Scott thanks for mentioning him there's there's some good but they think he's gonna have a good season defensively chip you mentioned it last year they weren't really what you would typically expect from an NC state defense they did go in the portal they did bring in a bunch of guys were likely to start form we'll see if those guys are upgrades and if they improve on that side of the ball and I think statistically they will just but again schedule like I don't know if they're actually going to be better so over. Do the collectives still have a role we still like to collectives still hold power anymore as most of that been brought in house sort of within the industry I think it's school by school okay. Also last thing on schedule no here there is a non zero chance that they're playing zombie teams the final two weeks of the season so there's somebody somebody from somebody reached out there big big fan of the cover three podcast. Sort of tied to the the operation over there not the school but the collective side of things and you know what he was saying he was and we we we break both alts. We're going like all over nine and a half and like alt under four and a half you know this this thing depending on how it starts early could turn into an absolute snowball to show up in the ACC championship game or this thing if they take a couple of losses and things start to slide off the rails or Bailey gets hurt like think things could go sour but I'm with you but I think that the entire second half of the schedule everything after the buy so for those who aren't watching on youtube.com slash cover three Virginia Richmond Vandy app state Louisville wake forest that is literally the first half of the schedule then they are off they return with at Stanford Cal Duke Syracuse Florida state North Carolina that could be six and oh. You know even if even if you take a couple of losses early so I'm I am over the seven and a half officially I don't I think I've got too many questions defensively where I'm ready to jump ahead and throw you as a true. ACC championship sleeper, but they could end up with a record that has them doing the tiebreaker math. I just don't know sports or analytics is going to love this team as much as it would love SMU if it comes down to that in the in the final stretch of the season. We'll see. All right. Any other final words on the pack? Oh, that was excellent. Maybe we'll get you down here so you can come do it on the mic and Carter Finley stadium. Can I crank the siren at a canes game? I'm yes. Next, I got to get cleared before I do. Oh, yeah, that's right. We got to have you allowed to travel. Speaking of traveling, we do have a little bit of a adjusted schedule here coming for you next week. We want to let you know on Monday, the ACC win totals part two that will begin with the North Carolina Tar Heels and take you all the way through the wake forest demon Deacons will premiere at 11 a.m. on YouTube Tuesday. We will be on CBS sports network with a prime time college football preview. Then fly back on Wednesday. So Thursday will be SEC win totals part one 11 a.m. on youtube youtube.com/cover3 Friday, SEC win totals part two. So Monday 11 a.m. on youtube will you will get to see the part two of ACC win totals Tuesday night on CBS sports network then Thursday and Friday. So that normally would be our Wednesday Thursday shows just bumped back one day to accommodate our travel up to New York City to go visit our friends at the mothership at CBS sports network. Also, I'm gonna go ahead and get on your radar. We will be bringing back our splash contest. I had a lot of fun getting in with all of the people in the cover three tailgate competing every single week with some of our favorite picks, our confidence plays. Remember, you got that little star for the double points. We'll keep the smack talk going as well. So keep your eyes peeled. We'll have much more information. The splash contest with the cover three podcast will be available as well. And you can follow him on Twitter at time for now. You can follow him at but only three. You can follow me at chip underscore Patterson. Gentlemen, thank you very much. Thank you. November 16th, Paramount Plus.