A week of warning signs for the GOP?

It's a timestamp kind of day. This podcast was recorded at 1.20 p.m. on Friday, October 16th. And some things may have changed by the time you hear it at the end of what has been another busy week in politics. There are personnel changes in the Trump administration. The president's been on a campaign blitz through some deep red states. And a shift among young voters could be another sign of trouble for the GOP. We're going to get into all of that and more in our weekly roundup. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover politics. I'm Franco Ordonez. I cover the White House. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. So, Franco, let's start with the week at the White House. President Trump's new White House press secretary gave her first briefing on Tuesday. How did it go? Yeah, it was. It was a tough go for Katie Zechariah. She actually only spoke for 14 minutes. I was there, and it was very clear that she was nervous. You know, she was largely reading the script that she had written. She only took three questions, and all from basically friendly outlets. You know, we've all been there, Tim. You know, it's a tough room. It can be very difficult. And it can be difficult to follow someone like Caroline Leavitt, who was very skilled at, you know, doing things. And I think that's what she did. You know, working with an adversarial press at times. I think she was adversarial towards the press as well. A hundred percent. A hundred percent. Without prompting. And now you have Zechariah basically facing questions of her own about her credentials and whether she's a lawyer or attorney. Yeah. And the answer is that she did go to law school. She graduated from Pepperdine, but she failed the bar exam. And then she didn't take it again. And she spent about a day and a half out of this short week answering questions or creating more confusion about what her credentials actually were. But, you know, Trump had referred to her as a lawyer. She has referred to herself repeatedly as a lawyer. And so, you know, it became this big controversy. It's so interesting because usual press critiques, you actually had conservative outlets, friendly outlets who were also very concerned. I mean, you and I were watching the show. We were watching the show. We were the Sean Hannity interview. Fox News is Sean Hannity, of course, which is very friendly with the administration. And Hannity was, you know, pretty tough on Zechariah. Here, let's just listen. So you you said you consulted with many people and they advised you that it was OK to call yourself a lawyer, but not an attorney. Correct. Correct. OK, there's a report out tonight that showed 15 social media posts where you identify yourself as an attorney. I think they were retweets and I corrected the record and said that there's not endorsing the title. They were retweets of a title that had been given. Jump forward to today. And President Trump was asked about this again. And he said he told Zechariah that maybe she should reconsider her role and that maybe this is not the role for her. Whoa, whoa, whoa. It's shorter than a Scaramucci. I mean, who knows if that is really the kiss of death or whether, you know, she will continue to persist in the role. But she did make some news in her first briefing, that very short first briefing when she announced that the president had asked for Kimberly Guilfoyle, the ambassador to Greece, to resign. She had been embroiled in quite some controversy. Right, Franco? Yeah, it was kind of a showstopper at the moment when she did say that I think people were taken back and eyes, brows were raised. She didn't say anything else other than say that, you know, Guilfoyle has been asked to resign. You know, obviously she did later on in the day. Now, the background is the Wall Street Journal actually first reported that Guilfoyle had asked a donor to pay a hundred thousand dollar credit card bill. And she had allegedly asked him to wire the money to avoid a paper trail. You know, and it really just turned into one of these huge articles that this White House has had to deal with in recent weeks. It really distracted the administration, not to mention embarrassed the administration. And the timing couldn't be worse as they're going into a midterm. And he's trying to project strength and it's just coming across as more chaos. And not just strength, but the fact is Fox News, which is a very good poll, by the way, they have a Republican and a Democratic firm that conduct their surveys. They found that people's top concern right now, is government corruption. 60% said that they were extremely concerned, as opposed to 58% who said they were extremely concerned about inflation and prices, right? I mean, we've been talking about inflation and prices and all of that as a top issue, and it is, but we're seeing an increasing number of polls say or show that leadership, government leadership, corruption, all of that is starting to weigh on people's minds. And what's really interesting about the government corruption angle is that Democrats had a 10 point, 10 point lead when, when respondents were asked, who do you trust more to deal with government corruption? It was the same for inflation. It was the same for gas prices, the same for government leadership, same for healthcare Democrats, all with double digit leads on each of those things. And they were the top five issues that people said that were there where they were extremely concerned. So you're seeing data point after data point add up to what really could be a big election night for Democrats. Of course, we're a couple of weeks, you know, out, still, and people start to engage then. And there's some evidence in places like Texas, for example, where we've seen a narrowing of the polling gap, because there's a lot of Republicans there and they start to get engaged. Democrats are operating on a lot of red turf in the House and in the Senate. So, you know, you can't, they can't count their chickens before they hatch, obviously, but you're starting to see a groundswell here that looks more and more like a traditional wave here. You mentioned gas prices, which of course have been a big vulnerability for Republicans this election cycle. And in an effort to bring down energy costs, President Trump announced a deal last week to buy diesel fuel from Russia. Franco, what exactly does that deal entail and what has the response been? Yeah, I mean, it's basically a deal to obtain diesel fuel from Russia at a time when diesel prices are soaring. I mean, it's an issue that's really been hurting U.S. truckers and farmers, as you all know, as a big part of Trump's political base. The problem with it, though, is that it appears to basically fly in the face of Congress and sanctions that they passed against Russia. I mean, many lawmakers, including Republicans, are arguing that Trump is doing a favor to Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, and the economic benefits are actually pretty questionable. I mean, we've talked about this, you know, before, but I think a lot of this has to do with the election. And I think it's a big part of Trump's political base. And I think it's Trump wanting an announcement to kind of give the appearance of taking action. But the tangible results, I think, are really, really uncertain. You know, Domenico, this is an interesting tension because President Trump has repeatedly said fuel prices are going to drop like a rock right after the Iran war ends. He says these high prices are just a small price to pay for keeping Americans safe from a nuclear Iran. And he's downplayed inflation. And yet here he is indicating, oh, no, I I think this actually is a problem that I'm trying to solve. He's aware. I mean, you know, he knows it's just there's only so far the power of positive thinking can get you when this many people are saying that they don't like what the national environment is, that they're saying that, you know, it's harder every day for them to make ends meet. I mean, when inflation is outpacing wages, it means that people's paychecks just aren't living up to me. And if that's the case, you know, they're going to take it out on the party in power. And that's right now, Trump and Republicans. Can we talk about the map real quick? I've been looking at where President Trump has been traveling and he is traveling to some mighty red places, places that, you know, Domenico, a few months ago, we didn't have on our map. So what I mean, like what is going on here? Well, a lot of the resources. That Republicans had that they were trying to target places like Georgia and North Carolina, let's say, which are, you know, purple to red leaning, frankly, they've moved their resources out of those places in the Senate race, for example, and move them into places like Kansas and Iowa and Texas, all Republican states that Trump won red states that now look to be shifting more toward Democrats, whether or not Democrats actually win those races. There's an open question, but certainly the needle is moved to the point where the Republicans are having to spend a lot of money. So right now, Democrats are having to fight on a lot of red turf. But the fact is, they have an opening in a lot of these red places because of the national mood. All right. We are going to take a quick break. Franco, thank you so much for joining us. Always fun to be on. We'll have more in a moment. Welcome back. And joining us now is NPR political reporter Elena Moore. Hello, Elena. Hey, Tam. Hey, Domenico. Hey. So, Elena, you sat in on a focus group of eight Gen Z voters who specifically deported President Trump in 2024. This is a demographic that Republicans made inroads with that year. So how are they feeling now about President Trump and the current state of politics? Yeah. So very, very quickly, just to set the stage here, young voters historically typically vote pretty solidly for Democrats. But Gen Z, which is currently voters under 30, shifted right two years ago. Trump didn't win the group. Democrats still won a majority, but he narrowed the margins pretty considerably. He lost the group in 2020 by 24 points. And in 2024, he lost it by 11. So that's what we're talking about here. That's all to say, you know, this was part of his expanded 2024 coalition. But over the last two years, we've seen some young voters that supported the president sour on him. And I saw that firsthand last week watching this focus group. It was run by the left-leaning polling firm Navigator Research. It featured eight voters, like you said. They're all in their 20s, and they live across five states, Texas, Florida, Ohio, South Carolina, and Mississippi. And all of these folks voted for Trump and now have like varying degrees of disappointment, with some going as far to say they regret their vote and others just talking about feeling distrustful in parts of the system. So what reasons did they give for that frustration with the president, with the system? Yeah, I think that to the extreme side of this, or, you know, maybe more on the. Frustrated side, some voters feel like he has, you know, promised them a lot and not delivered. That's not unique to generations. But young people for years have been talking about how they don't think they can achieve the American dream. They feel like they're delayed in a lot of milestones that past generations had, buying a house, getting the job you've been working for, paying for school. And so some young people in the focus group talked about feeling, you know, really strained by high prices right now. And for some, like John in Florida, he's a 29-year-old Black man. He said it's pushed him away from Trump. And he agreed to be part of the focus group on condition that he would only be identified by his first name. And that's the agreement for all the voters you're going to hear from today. I just feel like everything got worse. The economy went down. The only thing, I guess, you know, this administration champion is maybe, you know, deportation. But even then, I feel like it's going to affect, the economy also. And he's voted for Trump since 2016, but now does say he regrets his vote and says that nothing went the way it was supposed to. Domenico, how does that jive with what you've seen in recent polling? Yeah, it's really been a cratering for Trump with young voters. Trump in 2024 won 43 percent of young voters, voters 18 to 29. Now, in the latest NPR-PBS News Marist poll, their approval rating of him is down to 27%. 70% disapprove, with 62% strongly disapproving. And that's a huge level of intensity of opposition. No bueno. Yeah. These are not the kind of numbers you want if you're a president and your party is on the ballot. So these voters, they're expressing regret or disappointment. But did they say whether they'll be voting in the midterms? Or, you know, is this regret or disappointment leading to something? Yeah, I think that's the biggest takeaway I took from this, because obviously, it's clear, that people are unhappy with the job performance of this president. But what does that actually mean at this point? And it's complicated. You know, not everyone in this focus group had as strong of a response as John did, where he said, I'm going to switch parties and vote for the other side for change. Some talked about being frustrated with Trump's agenda. Some said they still plan to vote for Republicans. And then several also just admitted, you know, not knowing a ton about the election right now, Which is not super surprising in general, especially like young voters do not vote at as high rates as older generations do. And midterms are even more pronounced than that. So I think the thing that stuck with me the most is like, this is not a one for one, you know, comparison where, you know, being upset with Trump equals the same amount of support for Democrats. I think the thing that stuck with me is that there is more than anything like a sense of growing distrust or apathy from some of these voters. Take a listen to Courtney. She's a 20-year-old white woman living in South Carolina, and she says she doesn't regret her vote for Trump and overall does align with Republicans. But she said she's grown more distrustful of both parties, particularly on foreign policy. I just really do feel like we would be in this situation either way. Education, the economy, everything else would be so much better. If we weren't pumping money out into other countries, I don't think it matters what side you vote on. What we do in the Middle East is going to be not at all up to party. And there she's alluding to the U.S. relationship with Israel and says she doesn't, you know, want the U.S. to supply aid to the country. And she also said she doesn't support the war with Iran. Yeah. And the real danger here is that midterm elections see about 30 percent fewer people turn out than in presidential elections on average. So you have young voters. Who in general are more prone to stay home than a lot of other voter groups. It's especially true in midterm elections of younger voters. And if they're not fired up to vote for the Republicans in this election when they had gone to a certain level for Trump in 2024, that's another potential problem for Republicans heading into November. And remember, elections are not really a choice between two things in this country. It's not just between Democrats and Republicans. It's a choice between three things. Democrats, Republicans and staying home. Snap. Yeah. And Democrats don't actually need these Trump voters to vote for them. They would be just fine if these voters stayed home. Yeah. And we should say focus groups are anecdotal. This was only eight people. But it has, as Domenico said, there is national surveys that are representative of the larger electorate that do kind of back up this larger situation. And so I think that's a really good sentiment. And honestly, I feel that this focus group, more than, you know, previewing 2026, actually previewed kind of the challenges of 2028, which is that both Republicans and Democrats have these like looming questions over them of what the future of their parties look like. For Republicans, they need to figure out what they believe in when Trump isn't the leader and kind of repair some of these divides on issues like the war. And Democrats haven't had a leader. And so. That's obviously a problem as well. So I think this focus group just kind of reaffirmed that, you know, this is a generation that's, you know, investing in politics, beginning its political experience. And they have some questions. All right. It's time for one more quick break. And when we come back, it'll be time for Can't Let It Go. And we're back and it's time for Can't Let It Go. That's the part of the show where we talk about the things that we just can't stop thinking about politics or otherwise. Domenico, what can't you like? Well, I think that we really need a break from all of this craziness. And I don't know about you guys, but one thing that always makes me laugh and smile is corgi races. Oh, yes, please sign me up. There is a corgi race coming up, timed perfectly, hopefully for this election on December 13th, the halftime show of the Philadelphia Eagles home game against the Indianapolis Colts. Hopefully, hopefully everything will be counted by then. Never know. But even if it's not, we can have a little bit of a piece of joy while we watch some of these corgis race at halftime. And right now they're holding a contest to see if your dog can participate in this race. And I just I just think that it's it's it's making me laugh. Just look at the photos. So it's it's pretty great. Did you see there was a recent corgi race? I don't know where it was, but there was this video and there's one corgi. He like goes ahead and then he's like looking back at the other corgis like, look at you, slow corgis. Thankfully, he still won. So he was cocky and he earned it. Now, this is interesting because the fine print here is is notable. It says your corgi needs no prior race experience, just a great attitude and being comfortable in a loud, crowded stadium setting. OK, but here's where it gets a little elitist. I think only Pembroke Welsh corgis. Cardigan Welsh corgis and American corgis are allowed. No other corgi mixes and certainly no greyhounds. Duh. Greyhounds are very fast. I'm now picturing a corgi doodle. Oh, in full disclosure, I have what's known as a Chigi at home. She's part Chihuahua, part corgi. So it's got that corgi butt and little Chihuahua face. Oh, my goodness. Oh, my goodness. Looks like no other dog on the planet. I love I love weird dogs. I love them. OK, I'm going to go next. The thing that I cannot let go of is this Kelly Clarkson situation. Oh, yeah. Kelly Clarkson, the American Idol, who went to a store in Brooklyn. In. Yes, definitely. Best that had happened in Brooklyn. I know Elena's from there, but it's such a Brooklyn story. This store is called Art of Play, and it is like a magic shop slash toy shop slash I don't know. But there's this animatronic bird named Molly on the wall. And allegedly, Kelly Clarkson asked to purchase the bird and was told. you can't afford the bird. Not for sale. Not for sale. Well, no, I think they told her you can't afford this bird. But now they've explained it's more complicated than that. This is a very special, unique bird. It's created by an artisan. There's only one other one in the country. They have raised the price. There was a price tag next to it, which might show that it was for sale. The price tag was $15,000. It is now $15 million. So it turns out this is a priceless bird. $15 million? Yeah, now it's $15 million. They made it $15 million? Yes. They have decided that it is $15 million. First of all, $15,000 for a mechanical bird is ridiculous in the first place. Well, it's art. Whatever. I'm from the other borough, from Queens. Nobody's got $15,000 or $15 million birds on their wall, let me tell you that right now. You bring that bird to Queens, it's done. That bird's dead. It's not dead. We're never buying it. That makes no sense. No interest. No interest over here. Whatever. Between that, between a $15,000. Of course it's Brooklyn. Between a $15,000 bird and a $12 egg and cheese sandwich. Give me a break. Yeah, that's horrible. I'm not going to defend any of this. But, you know, the internet has had a lot of opinions and a lot of takes. And just to tell you how much I couldn't let go of this story, I was watching Pablo Torre Finds Out, is a podcast and video podcast. He's incredible. I was watching it live, his live stream at 9 p.m. to see because he got surveillance footage from inside the store. But it was a great big disappointment because we knew she was in the store. I need audio. Yeah, we need that. Was she really Julia Roberts, as she says, from Pretty Woman when she was seen as not being able to afford the stuff in the store? We still don't know how this really went down. Yeah, we really don't know. I did see that the store owner said that she's welcome back anytime. And he kind of like subtweeted her a little bit, even in this interview where he was like, you know, it's really difficult having to face all of these threats from people just because of something Kelly Clarkson says, which tells me it must be really hard to be Kelly Clarkson every day. Truly, must be hard to be Kelly Clarkson every day. Actually. Elena, what can't you let go of? Well, I mean, maybe just to ring in Domenico's triumphant, return to the pod, which I know has been weeks, but we haven't been on together. I'm going to do a New York. Can't let it go as well. It just came on my Instagram feed recently, and I immediately knew I had to talk about it. There is a house in Tenafly, New Jersey that has for their Halloween decorations, recreated the iconic end of game four of the NBA finals when the Knicks beat the Spurs and, you know, basically kind of cemented their win because the momentum was so amazing. And it was like, maybe the best game of sports I've ever seen in my life. And I think for many people, as a reminder, if you live under a rock, the Knicks pulled off a 29 point comeback and the game winning shot happened really with like a second, just over a second to go. And I'm recreating this because it's literally like exactly what this looks like on the front lawn of this guy's house, except everyone is a skeleton. But Jalen Brunson shoots the ball. So there's like a skeleton Jalen Brunson. And then obviously, the basketball hits the rim, misses, and then OG Ananobi, number eight, our freaking Lord and Savior, gets that rebound, tips it in. And he also is the skeleton in this. And he's in the air, tipping it in right when that happens. And this reenactment has everything. You have to look it up because there's a 12 foot skeleton, way taller than all the other ones. That is, of course, Victor Wembenyama, who is on the Spurs. He's there. Who's about that size. The scene is literally so good. You have the, the Knicks fan celebrities on like the side. So you have like Spike Lee, you've got Timothee Chalamet. They're all there, also all skeletons. So, yeah, you got to see it. The local New York NBC channel covered it. And here's what the owner of the house told them. Once the game four happened and OG had that tip in, it was such a big moment already. But as soon as the Knicks won the championship, I said, this is going to be our decorations this year. We had an extra 12 foot skeleton sitting around. It was perfect for Wemby. Just had an extra. Just had an extra 12 foot skeleton sitting around. I just love that this man, like after watching such an incredible game, was like, and I've got it. I've got my Halloween inspiration. I haven't lived in New York in 25 years. And, you know, there's just there's there's no place like some of the characters that you will see there. That is for sure. Including the people that come from New Jersey. Not I. All right, before we go, a reminder. That new episodes of our show come out every weekday afternoon, usually between four and five p.m. Eastern Time. The best way to make sure you get those as soon as they're available is to follow the podcast on Apple. That means look for the big plus sign on our show page on Spotify and the NPR app. There is a follow button that is also quite big where you can hit it. Make sure you have the latest developments for your evening commute, walking the dog or wherever you like to listen. Let's leave it there for today. Our producer is Mathani Maturi. Casey Morrell edits the podcast. Our producer is Bria Suggs. Special thanks to Lexi Schipitel and Anna Yukoninov. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover politics. I'm Elena Moore. I also cover politics. And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.