A trip to one of the last toss-up districts

Pennsylvania is always an important swing state in elections and the Lehigh Valley is a part of the state both Republicans and Democrats are fighting to win mainly because it's one of the only real toss-up districts left. Today on the pod let's head there and let's see what's going on. Is the NPR politics podcast? I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover politics. I'm Barbara Sprent. I cover Congress. I'm Stephen Fowler. I cover politics. Uh Barbara, you recently traveled to a part of Pennsylvania that I love. It's known as the Latino corridor or the Latino about whatever you want to call it for folks not familiar. Can you tell us about what this part of Pennsylvania's life? Yeah, so I was primarily in Allentown, Bethlehem area. Really interesting cities. People may think of Allentown depending on your musical preferences because of Billy Joel's 82 song called Allentown where he sort of laments the shuttering of big manufacturing there. But a lot has changed since then. In the 1970s, it was like 98.2% white. Fast forward to today, it's a majority Latino city and the largest subgroups being Puerto Ricans and Dominicans. And it sits in the seventh congressional district, which is a toss-up district. The incumbent is a first-time Republican sitting in that seat, Ryan McKenzie, and he only won by a percentage point last cycle. Wow. I mean, but this is pretty reliably blue, right? This district outside of 2024 has been like a stronghold for Democrats, right? Yes. Allentown is blue. But what I think is interesting is that even in a city that blue, there are still signs of what we saw much more broadly in 2024 with Latino voters shifting rightwards, shifting towards Donald Trump. The mayor of Allentown, a Democrat who incidentally is the first Spanish speaker to hold the role. Matt Turk, he told me that in 2024, 52 of the 55 precincts had some degree of rightward shift. That's not to say they turned red. I mean, they were still blue. But the biggest rightward shift that they saw in one of those precincts was in the most heavily Latino district. So it does tell you something. It's sort of an example, I think, of what we saw play out on a much broader scale. Well, I want to talk about what you heard from voters there. Like, what are the things that they're focused on? Like, what sort of top of mind before the midterms or as they prepare to vote for the terms? Yeah. Well, I mean, I think sometimes, I feel like you hear and like politicians will be like, you know, like we got to focus on like Latino issues. I mean, like, Latina issues are like a lot of issues that we talk about across the spectrum, Chris crossing ethnicity and race and age. And that's the economy. I mean, that's not, I don't think a shocking thing. People are very focused on the cost of living person after person that I talk to regardless of their party preference had the same concerns, gas prices, grocery prices. I talk to Barbara, another Barbara. Barbara can solve this risotti about this. She runs a daycare actually from her home. So she gets to see a lot of what parents are feeling. And this is some of what she had to say. People are afraid to have more children, right? You know, I had a mom who has two and then accidentally got pregnant again. And it's supposed to be such a happy time. And she's sobbing. You know, we don't know if we could afford this. Well, I mean, Stephen, these are concerns, like as Barbara mentioned, that like kind of reach across the electorate, right? Like this is a national issue. Like it's, it's the economy is the number one thing that voters are thinking about when you talk to kind of any voting block, right? Affordability, cost of living, gas prices, anything in this big green dollar sign umbrella is really the thing that's motivating voters. The latest NPR PBS news, Marist poll that just came out found that to be true for registered voters. Looking at the specific issues, it was fascinating to me that more voters said that they thought Democrats would do a better job at tackling things like rising gas prices and tackling things like inflation. And you know, Democrats held an advantage over Republicans on which party would be better for the economy, foreign policy and gas prices is what the write-up of the poll said from Marist. The interesting thing, two more people thought Democrats would be better on immigration, which is Republican signature issue here. So, you know, you're seeing this microcosm with Barbara's reporting in Lee High Valley in this area, but it's not just limited to there. We have some other polling data from strengthen numbers and a barricade poll that they shared information with NPR. They take the estimates of the national electorate and can zoom it into the congressional district level and the overall vibe of those numbers. The people who are least happy with President Trump's job approval, the people who are least happy with prices and immigration and things are in places like South Florida, the Texas Mexico border, places like the Lee High Valley where there are a larger number of Latino voters. So, you know, we don't know who they're going to show up and vote for if they're going to show up and vote, but we do know broadly, people are not happy in those communities with those things. Yeah. I mean, I think we're talking about registered voters here, right? From what I've seen when you are looking at polling that is just like even likely voters, those numbers tend to get even better for Democrats. I mean, it's sort of amazing that on the two big issues for Republicans, which is the economy and immigration, they have lost so much ground. It's helpful to think about, I mean, like Barbara mentioned with the precinct shifts in 2024, it is helpful to think about prices and affordability and how people view those things with an even longer lens. You had this backlash to the Biden administration and inflation and so we're really coming up on year six of people being not happy with how expensive everything is and that's something that goes to whoever it is in power. In this case, it's Republicans in the White House and Republicans in this congressional district and things like that. So, you know, it's best viewed not in isolation and I think some of the data captures that and then some of the anecdotes capture that that when we're talking about voters and voter behavior, it's not just a, you know, check yes for Democrats, check yes for Republicans. It's really more on these issues. Yeah. Well, let's talk about this congressional district because it is one of the few toss ups. They are rare when you're looking at the map this year because of Jerry Mandering and of course, like long term forces of like just having fewer competitive districts. I mean, I'm assuming there's a lot of money being spent in this race, right? There's a lot of money being spent. A lot of places Pennsylvania is no exception. From the start of September through November, ad impact, which tracks ad spending says there's already three billion in ad spending planned across the country in Pennsylvania alone more than a hundred million dollars in ad spending's planned. 22 million of it in this one house district. Remember, a house majority goes through these many seats in Pennsylvania. Well, there's not much money, Barbara. I would imagine like this would be something that like voters are picking up on. Like, do you think people are paying attention now? Well, yes, we're getting closer to their attention. Well, I mean, and what's interesting is like the house map, as you said, like there's a narrow number of like actual toss up districts. And like the reason that the house map is so competitive in many ways is because of Latino voters. I mean, there's something like half of the battleground map has at least 10% registered Latino voters. And then of that half, there's like another half that has about like more than 20%. So that part, I don't think people should overlook both in terms of like people's own political power as they think about like their role this cycle. And then also as the as the parties try to compete for their votes. And one thing that I think is interesting is even though the economy was the driving sort of you know concern when I talk to people in this district, there is also two I think kind of national threads or storylines that are kind of trickling down. And one on the democratic side is the insistence that the deportation efforts and immigration enforcement from the Trump administration really erodes a lot of the support that Republicans made with Latino voters less cycle. Again, in a non-surprising fashion, like it depends on who you ask, right? Like when I talk to Republicans about this in the district, you know, they say actually that that's a degree of fear mongering. And that what Alan town saw in terms of ice enforcement looks drastically different than say what we saw in Minneapolis. That being said, a lot of people that I spoke with said none of us live in isolation and everyone has a cell phone. And you know, things that happen far away often do make their way into the way that people vote and what they care about. So there's that on the one hand. And then on the other national storyline that I see is tying Democrats to the far left wing of their party. The chairman of the Lehigh County Republican Committee, George Rivera, told me that if Republicans are going to be tied to Trump, then Democrats have to be tied to the extreme left of their party. And his case is if you vote for a Democrat in November, you're voting for a socialist. There is much skepticism among Democrats that this will be an effective strategy. And in fact, I asked Mayor Matt Turk about this. Here's what he had to say. If you're reading your talking points on making air quotes on Latinos, that might help you and maybe take a day with the hardcore Cubans that I know really well, because some of them are my family, but that's not going to drive voters here in Allentown. Yeah, I totally see what he's saying. I could see how that kind of messaging would work in South Florida with also my Cuban ancestry. Voters there have a history with a socialist and communist governments in a way that families that have maybe Dominican and Puerto Rican ancestry. That is not in their history. So yeah, very interesting. Okay, let's take a quick break. Welcome back. Barbara, we've been talking about like voting trends and how the Latino voting block has been moving kind of globally like zooming out. But I mean, as we say often on this podcast, Latino voters are not a monolith. Even though these are trends, like Latino voters vote differently across different precincts blah, blah, blah. Let's talk about it. How did you see that sort of manifesting in the areas that you were covering? Yeah, like it's such a good point because yeah, there's such a diversity of culture and ethnicity, and a lot of times like as you just said before the break, like the politics sort of falls in that as well. What I think is most interesting is the way that the parties are trying to put all Latino voters in one box and to think like, well, they've supported Republicans last cycle. Now they're coming home to the Democratic Party because of all of these economic concerns. And that's just a mystery. I think that's a, it's just not the case. And I was talking to Stephanie Valencia about this. She's the co-founder of Eki's research, which polls Latino voters. And she said that, you know, for so long, Latino voters have been sort of talked about as the sleeping giant. Like if they come out to vote, it could be crazy. Like, whoa, who knows what will happen. And actually, it's much more accurate to think of it as a swinging giant. And she had some really interesting polling showing how Latino voters are feeling as it relates to the political parties. Let's hear what you had to say. A third of Latinos don't see themselves as part of either party. They're voting every single election cycle based on what's motivating their anxieties, how they're feeling about their own personal economic situation. Yeah. And so, you know, my takeaway from that is that nothing is a given and no political party should view it that way. Instead, they have to contend with this idea that every cycle, they have to be really engaging the community and fighting for their votes. I mean, we talk about this a lot. I wonder how much of this is because the parties have not been good about talking to these voters that they just don't have loyalty to one party over the other in a way that voters who hear from one party or both parties all the time might have. Well, I mean, it's interesting because I feel like this is a classic case of, like, it depends on who you're talking to. But I did talk to people, I would say, on it's not quite right to say on both sides of the aisle because a lot of people feel a little politically homeless, but they do feel like perhaps they feel a little bit more conservative or a little more on the democratic side. But they both basically said, like, how frustrating and annoying it is to feel like 30 or 60 days before an election. Both parties kind of rediscover the importance of the Latino vote. And then they try, and you know, the thing is you just can't, you really can't fake authenticity and outreach. And this is the lesson that I think parties have tried to get better at over time. And I mean, we've seen a lot of effort over the last few cycles, not only among like an outreach to Latino voters, but you know, for other groups as well. And I think it's just, it's, it is a long game. And it was Mayor Tercu was telling me like, outreach is not like at your table. You know, you actually have to like go out into the community. You have to spend time with people in their places of worship and their businesses and really get to know their kids. And like, it starts on a local level, you know, and I think that so often we think of this as like a national sort of parachuting in of an effort. And it just reads as false, you know. And you know, that's kind of what we've seen ebb and flow in the last decade or so with the Trump campaign and the Republican party. They did a lot of investment in those outreach centers and did a lot of community-based stuff. And then they ended up getting a lot more votes. And then they shut those down and they went away. And then they got pure votes. And Democrats did a lot of investing and organizing and doing things in states where they didn't make as much progress. And then they started building up a lot more votes. Yeah, yeah. That's it. And you know, like I talked to people who supported President Trump last time, who now are feeling this kind of like buyers remorse they feel disappointed. What I found kind of notable, I was talking to Anna Costa, who's a, she's originally from the Dominican Republic. She's a truck driver. So like diesel is just being, you know, it's brutal for her right now. And I asked about like, does she have confidence? Because she doesn't know if she's going to support Republicans or Democrats this cycle. And she seemed kind of over it. You know, she's like, I'm definitely going to vote because voting is important. So I asked like, do you have any faith left? You have like confidence, you know, in politicians to actually like address your concerns. And we have some tape of what she said. Sinceremente no. No, definitely. Yeah. And you know, what she's saying is like, no, I feel like, you know, they promise, after promise, the same kind of things. And you know, in the end, it's just more of the same. Yeah. I think in some ways, like, you know, she is speaking of much bigger truth that exists for so many people in the way that they're viewing, you know, the political promises that they hear. Yeah. I mean, we'll see even this brings me to another national trend, which is frustration with incumbents. I mean, people are upset with their lawmakers and their representation kind of across the board. I mean, what are you seeing in the polls about how incumbents will usually have like a pretty solid edge in elections, like how things are shaping up for them in this atmosphere? Well, looking at that in PR, PBS News, Marist Poll again, more than half a registered voters say that they are prioritizing candidates with new ideas over somebody with a proven track record or experience or things like that. You're also seeing it in the record number of incumbents that decided to peace out from Congress and retire or run for a different office and not hang around the halls of power in Washington, DC. You saw it in the primary season with Republican primary voters who ousted people, several senators, House representatives on the Republican side, with Democratic primary voters who enacted generational change in ousting a bunch of incumbents there. So not great vibes towards incumbents. Well, and this frustration, like sort of across the board for both parties, also tells me that I mean, there are going to be people who are voting for Democrats, not because they love Democrats, but because they just don't, they're not happy with what's going on right now. Like, this doesn't mean that this is a new coalition that is here for going to stick around for Democrats, like moving forward. I think it would be very easy to take the wrong lessons away from what is going to potentially happen in November, looking ahead to 2028 and thinking about what party may or may not have an advantage with what group and what state and things like that. You know, if you have my imaginary whiteboard that I have here, like looking at that, a vote for a Democratic candidate is not necessarily in support of Democrats. Maybe it's opposition to Trump, the poll also found, a lot of people say that opposing Trump is a strong reason that they are making their vote choice. And so, you know, it's a binary choice at the end of the day. Sometimes there's an independent or third party candidate there to choose from, but there is a binary choice for who represents people in Congress and in these elections, but the rationale behind it and the anger and the frustration is way more complicated than just a box with a D&R on it. And you know what, as you're talking about that, it also raises the thought for me, which is that this also paints a complicated picture in terms of like the lessons and the takeaways from the cycle. It paints a tough picture for 2028 because so many people that I talk with who are concerned about the economy and are considering voting for Democrats because they're so, you know, frustrated with the Trump administration, you may get a Democratic House, majority in the House, which actually has no power to address those very issues. And that is going to be a major challenge for Democrats, should they take control of the House? And it remains to be seen just how they square that particular circle. Otherwise, you get the 2028. It's 2028. A poll comes out. Voters are not happy with incumbents and the party in power and we're back at square one. All right, let's leave it there for today. I'm actually low-peasant cover politics. I'm Barbara Sprent, I cover Congress. I'm Steven Fowler, I cover politics. And thank you for listening to the MPR Politics Podcast.