A tale of two Senate candidates

Two Democrats trying to defend Senate seats in states that went for Donald Trump in 2024. What are their strategies? And how different are their approaches? Let's head to Georgia and Michigan. It's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover politics. I'm Sam Greenglass. I cover Congress. And I'm Mara Liason, senior national political correspondent. And Sam, you've been to both states in the last few weeks. You lived in Georgia for four years. You're from Michigan. And in fact, you are there right now. Let's start with the players. Who are these Democratic candidates we're here to talk about? OK, so let's start in Georgia, where you've got incumbent Senator John Ossoff. He is actually the first millennial senator. He's in his first term. And he flipped the Senate seat blue back in 2020, 2021, along with Reverend Rafaela. This was the first time in a generation that these seats had gone back to the Democrats. And in the Senate, you've got a guy who's kind of carved out this lane as a pretty head-down senator, low profile, very much focused on the work of serving in the chamber. Then in Michigan, you've got Abdul El-Sayed. He is a former public health official. He is running on the left of the political spectrum on proposals like Medicare for All. He won this really heated election. He made primary back in August. And now he's trying to convince, you know, independents and lean Republicans to come along with him and vote for him this November. And, you know, on paper, Ossoff should be one of the most vulnerable senators up for re-election this year. Republicans, you know, mostly kept dominating statewide races in Georgia, with the big exception, I guess, being Warnock's re-election back in 2022. Whereas with the exception of Trump wins in 2016 and 2024 in Michigan, Democrats have pretty much. dominated here recently. But instead, you know, we're in this posture where the polls suggest a really healthy lead for Ossoff and things look a little more uncertain for El-Sayed in Michigan. So the red state is safer than the swing state. That's crazy. Yeah. And Michigan is a state that has not elected a Republican to the Senate in a very, very, very long time. This is a Democratic Senate seat or has been for quite some time. And now. Now it is considered by the Cook Political Report to be a toss-up. Sam, what explains the differences here between these races? OK, so in Georgia, there's been a lot of attention on these viral rally speeches that Ossoff has been doing and have really fired up the base and helped raise a lot of money. But I think the answer of why he's doing so well leans more on his really intense focus on constituent services, even in red. There's been a lot of attention on the rural parts of the state where maybe he's not expecting to get a lot of votes. I talked about this with Lance Sabe. He's the mayor pro tem of Brunswick, which is on the Georgia coast. And he's someone who has voted for Republicans and for Democrats. But he said when it came to the Senate race, his choice was really easy. He's usually the first one that calls us. He doesn't flip open his notes. You know, it's like he honestly cares and knows. And just in the last couple of weeks, we have heard Ossoff getting endorsements from a couple of, dyed-in-the-wool Republican local mayors in rural parts of the state. And even some Republican strategists acknowledge that Ossoff does really well in this space and they've got really nothing to complain about. And Sam, then there is Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, who is having a different race. Yeah, so he ran as a candidate much further to the left. And now in this general election context, Republicans are having a much easier time hitting him over. His positions on things like policing and immigration enforcement. And that may end up being a problem with voters who lean Republican and independents. But, you know, even beyond that, just unifying Democrats after the primary has proven to be really complicated. Yeah, I mean, this was a super bitter primary and a lot of the conversation centered around Israel and Gaza. What did these voters tell you? Yeah, so I was talking to these four. And they had hoped to actually ask a question at this event. It was originally billed as a town hall. And a lot of their hesitation stemmed from some comments that El-Sayed made back in March after this vehicle attack on the Temple Israel Preschool, which is nearby this community where this town hall was. Members of the assailant's family had been killed by Israeli strikes in Lebanon. And at the time, El-Sayed said in part that hurt people hurt people. And this is what voter Judy Kessler said to me. He knows there's a sensitivity for people around here. I feel like there was some mysterious thing in the room that no one was willing to say. Let me say one line. People say this about me. Let me tell you this rather than just cliches. And that's what I felt I got. So that sounds, Mara, like a voter who should be a Democrat, but who has not been convinced by the Democratic nominee. This is exactly why Democrats are so freaked out about the Michigan Senate race, because it is now September and the Democratic nominee has not unified the party behind him, has not unified the party's base in a swing state where he needs a completely solid Democratic base. And then he needs to go after independents and moderates. They're just not enough left wing progressive white young college graduates in Michigan to put them over the finish line. So that's that's a real deficit for him. And he has to work on that in a very short period of time. But you know, another thing that Sam said that I thought was so interesting, just going back to Georgia for a minute, that Ossoff has really focused on constituent service. Ossoff happens to be the only Democratic Senate incumbent in a red state, a state that went for Trump in 2024. And there's another Senate incumbent, a Republican Senate incumbent, who's the only Republican Senate incumbent in a state that Harris won. And her name is Susan Collins. Susan Collins has also had a maniacal vote. We'll focus on constituent service. In other words, both of these candidates in states that that shouldn't be theirs have found a way to reach Republicans and independents by performing tremendous constituent service. And I think that's a real lesson for any candidate in a tough race. And I should just translate that constituent services is like sort of a Washington way of saying, like, they just help the people in their state with the vote. They help the people in their state with the vote. Trump is a symptom of our politics right now. So he's both talking about Trump and then also in some ways trying to tie it to his Republican opponent, Congressman Mike Collins. But a lot more of it is kind of a critique of the broader system in this particular political moment. What also struck me about how willing he is to attack Trump by name, either he's so confident that he can do that without losing Republican and moderate independent voters, or he's found some kind of a secret recipe where he can bash Trump for his base and get them motivated. But he can also do this impeccable constituent service for everyone else and get them to either vote for him or at least not vote for Collins. Yeah, I think it's really interesting point, Mara. I started covering these Ossoff rallies at the very beginning of this reelection campaign back in like the spring of 2025. And I was struck when I went to this rally, and heard some of this language from him. You know, I talked about this with Aaron Whiteley. He's the chair of the Chatham County Democrats down in Savannah. And this is kind of how he described it. I don't think you could put a label on him because he doesn't fit into a box. And I think Senator Ossoff and Senator Warnock, you know, have emerged as people who are willing to meet the moment. So it's interesting, you kind of hear Ossoff walking this line of doing these two things at once. And something I've been wondering about, as there's been all this talk of maybe a possible presidential campaign down the line, like, is it possible to have it both ways and be all things to all people under the spotlight of a national campaign outside of the very specific context of Georgia? Okay, let's take a quick break. And we will have more when we get back. And we're back. And I do want to talk about the Republicans running in these two races in Michigan and Georgia. Because candidates do matter. And I think it's really important to talk about the Republicans running in these two races. And these Republican candidates are maybe not like the the most stellar perfect candidates you could pick out of central casting, if you will. Well, starting in Georgia, I should say that some of Ossoff's strength with independents and lean Republicans is less about Ossoff and more about his Republican opponent, Congressman Mike Collins. Collins has come under fire for not his son-in-law, who has made all these posts on social media espousing white supremacist and anti-Semitic themes. Collins also continues to insist Trump won the 2020 election in Georgia. And that's just a couple of the controversies that he's been entangled with. And so a lot of this support is in part a reaction to that baggage and less to Ossoff. Over in Michigan, you've got Congressman Mike Rogers. He actually ran in the same race as Ossoff. And he's been in the same race in the last cycle and lost narrowly to current Democratic Senator Alyssa Slotkin. He's trying again this time. He's a former congressman who has kind of had a bit of a journey from being a Trump critic, especially around the January 6th insurrection and these unfounded claims of widespread election fraud during that race, to now embracing a little bit more of that. Though as we move into the general election, he has made a much bigger pivot to trying to be kind of this more generic Republican candidate who is offering open arms to folks that are maybe a bit uncomfortable with adults, say it. Yeah, I mean, he's sort of like a vest wearing corporate Republican and sort of like the Bush era traditional Republican kind of way. You know, like a Chamber of Commerce Republican. But probably the right way to run in a swing state if you're a Republican. I mean, he's a generic R. I wanted to ask Sam, you know, he did become an election denier. And as you said, he started out as a very harsh Trump critic. Has he paid a price for that? Has that helped him in the primary and hurting him in the general or not having much of an effect at all? You know, this is a question that I'm eager to do more reporting on as this campaign moves ahead. You know, I hear very little about these widespread election fraud claims from voters or Republican leaning voters. You know, you do hear a lot of people saying like, yeah, I believe there was something funny about what happened in 2020. It's not what I want our candidates to be focusing on right now. And I think that's kind of the posture that we're seeing from Rogers. And I'll be curious to see how much this is on the minds of voters as we get closer to the fall. And talk from Trump ramps up around, you know, false claims about widespread fraud. I'll just say the Democratic campaign people, consultants that I'm talking to, are not leaning in on some of the democracy stuff, some of the Jan 6 stuff that we did that we saw candidates lean in on in 2024. There was a feeling that that kind of didn't work. So I'm not sure how much we'll see it being like a huge issue in these races unless the Republicans end up making it a huge issue. I have built this whole spreadsheet of campaign money. And I'm kind of wondering as I look at my bar charts of these two races, it might actually say something about how these races are shaping up as of the fall. the last reporting period, which was, you know, a couple of months ago, John Ossoff had $42.5 million cash on hand, and Mike Collins had $2 million. Meanwhile, Mike Rogers in Michigan had more than $4 million, which is about a million and a half more than El-Sayed. And we're expecting Mike Rogers to get a huge amount of outside money spent on his behalf. Right. And candidate quality matters. And one measure of candidate quality is how much money they can raise. So in that sense, those races are pretty different. But I think one of the things that both of these races are going to tell us is how strong anti-Trump sentiment is this cycle. Donald Trump is very unpopular, historically unpopular. He even has negative ratings in Georgia, which is a pretty red state. And I think that if both of these candidates prevail, it's going to be because Trump was unable to help Republicans and anti-Trump sentiment is going to prevail. And I think that if both of these candidates prevail, it's going to among Democrats is just so motivating. In other words, if El-Sayed wins, despite all the problems he has, I think it'll mostly be because of the backlash to Trump. And Ossoff is able to bash Trump on the campaign trail, confidently not worrying about any kind of backlash in a red state because of how unpopular Trump is. So I think that's what these races are going to tell us. And, you know, just to put a fine point on that, Mara, I spent some time last week up in, in Midland County in mid-Michigan, which is a pretty red-leaning part of the state. And I was at the Midland County Democrats headquarters where Michigan's other senator, Democrat Alyssa Slotkin, was giving a stump speech and helping amp people up to go out and convince their friends and neighbors ahead of the election. Slotkin did not weigh in in the primary and now is out here backing El-Sayed. And here's a little bit of what she said. And I know that you're encountering neighbors and people at the door and everything who are not sure. But let me tell you, there are plenty of things that I don't agree with Abdul on, but we agree on the really important stuff. And that's preserving democracy and fighting for the country and the state that we love in a serious and principled way. Yeah. So I think we'll spend the next couple of months seeing if that argument is enough to swing people over to the Democrats to hold onto the seat and potentially determine control of that chamber. Or to convince ambivalent Democrats that they need to get over their concerns like Slotkin did and just vote blue. We'll be watching for that. OK, that is all for today. Come back tomorrow and join us for more from the wild world of politics. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover politics. I'm Sam Greenglass. I cover Congress. And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast. you