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A Numbers Game | February 27, 2026 | Hour 3

45m 15s

A Numbers Game | February 27, 2026 | Hour 3

The transcription features a conversation among sports betting analysts discussing strategies and insights, with a focus on baseball season win totals. They explain that evaluating teams using "Pythagorean wins"—based on runs scored and allowed—can reveal market inefficiencies, as seen with teams like the Chicago White Sox, whose actual wins deviated significantly from expected performance. The analysts emphasize the advantage of betting on season totals due to reduced variance over a 162-game season and the availability of profitable opportunities even without deep handicapping. However, they note practical challenges, such as limited access to betting accounts, the need for multiple outlets, and personal constraints that hinder bettors from acting on all insights. The dialogue also touches on broader betting topics, including the psychological impact of missing out on winning streaks and the value of tools like real-time data and expert analysis. Overall, the discussion underscores the blend of statistical analysis, market awareness, and disciplined execution required for successful sports betting.

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The numbers told the story of the allies now. Swandals, idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gill Abix Hunter on V-Send. Our number three of a numbers game at V-Send these sports betting that were V-Send.com game plus I-Hard Radio, YouTube TV and of course Series XM Channel 158, Gill Abix Hunter. Kelly, once again thanks to Matt Grissom, by the way, for coming in, talk to college baseball with us. Physic and I are fighting over this guide at this point. Physic is using money to steal it. Bribing money. I'm not going to get it. Grissom with it. This is a guide goes away from me. Kelly's going to the glass because it is time lays gentlemen for Physic Fridays with Steve Fessick. Let's go. Whether it's at the sports book or anywhere else in the casino, he's always helping us find an edge. It's time for Physic Fridays. With the only back to back winner of the hill and the back of the hill. I love hard copies. I can't this digital report like the same with the Warren sharp. It's like it's got you can't give me a 600 page digital. I'll go blind trying to like read that. I love it with a niche sport like college baseball more than anything. I was telling you this off air. I'm going to say right now. So I leave the show yesterday. I'm making a bet down here and two guys super nice. Stop me and they're like thank God your back. Physic is gone crazy on Twitter. Not true. Not true. It's a lie. It's a lie. It's a lie. Calling our listeners liars. Yes. Like for instance, someone someone tweeted a group of people tweeted that they would give up their favorite sports book for $1,000. These are sports betting experts. Oh, dude. And my response was Oh, dear. That's all I said. I agree with you. Oh, dear. I did. I was amazed by that. I was like really? That's all it's going to take for you to give up an out. Let me let me say like if you asked a true advantage, gambler, like the crack band. Yeah. How much would he be willing to give up a key book that lets him play? I think you're going to have to add. Oh, my God. Well, I think you're going to have to add two zeros and a five. I think like who zeros for sure? I mean, like like like, hey, for I think for I think for Bill would say, hey, you want to give up that book for $200K? I think anything like I probably can give me a little time to like, but $1,000? Why not? You know, the thing about that is not just a for honesty, obviously, but one like not realizing how condemning that is. That's a great point. No names, but yes. That was the first, that was my first reaction. My first reaction is that's all it would take. What are we doing over here? There's people going to bet bash that are like basically that's their number one goal is to get accounts. Crummy accounts. Average accounts. Not good accounts. Just accounts where they can get down on stuff. And so and those are worth like, like thousands and thousands of dollars to them. The idea to give up your best account like a minus 105 account. Oh, dear. Oh, dear. I love the old school. Oh, dear. You brought up crack Bill Crackerberger on the show yesterday with us, making his return as well. Yesterday, he was going around town, betting baseball season win totals, betting a lot of money. Can you explain the the beauty of baseball season win totals, even though your money is tied up for as long as it is? Baseball season wins are fantastic. And by the way, shout out to David Kaufman. If you know David Kaufman, he's the old guy that has cares around a computer bag. He doesn't own a computer. He just has like like sheets and sheets of hard copies. He's very very similar to GRP wins only. He's smarter. All right. He's certainly harder working. But he's like, he's old school like a notebooks and stuff and he's like, he's like, oh, I got the white socks over 66 and I got him under 69. He is getting a player. He just, but he knows to the decimal point what every single number is. And so the beauty of season wins twofold. One, there's great variability in this market place. It's not on the screen anywhere. I'm sure it's somewhere. But bottom line is it's not unusual to find big variables between two places. And secondly, if you have a handicap that's correct on a individual game, all right. And you're you're betting on the blue jays, right? And they got guys on first and second and two outs and there's a long fly ball to center field and whether drops over the wall or gets caught on the track. That's a three run differential. That decides the game. Plinko. Ding, ding, ding, ding, ding. Plinko. There's very little plinko other than injuries in a 162 game season. If you're directly correct, other than the Cleveland Guardians last year, where Matt Berkstow your money. It's as if you're aggregating my words to you. That's exactly what I said. You it's 162 points of data. You can overcome negative variance if you were directionally correct on your handicap. Exactly correct. And of course, there's always an exception to the rule. But you know, for every Cleveland Guardian team, there's a team like the Cincinnati Reds that went 83 games and they probably should have won 83 games. Right. But I think the interesting thing about crack doing this is the point I was trying to keep anything like this. The old economics 101 right macro economics 101 opportunity cost very dollar that is tied up. Right. It is preventing you the opportunity of making money with that dollar elsewhere. So with baseball season win totals, the quarter quote downside is you have this. It's gone for six months, right. So you better have an edge if you're going to do this and crack is obviously figured out to himself has made the assessment. He's got the edge very much and the truth is that the truth is you don't need an edge at all. You could be like like a complete random. Okay. If I told you, get out of the great point what you're about to do. Get out of the center. I need you. You don't have to bet every team. But I need you to make 20 season win bets. Yeah. Today. All right. And I needed to be favored to win. But by the way, you don't get to you just got back from Australia and you can't you have no idea what happened during the off season. Would you be able to do it? Well, of course you'd be able to do it because you can just I was just over at at Fremont. I love this. I played the pirates over 78 and a half minus 104. Now since I've been doing my work, okay, people are going to throw me out of the Boston saves. Dumbo, you could have gotten over 74 back in January. Okay. I was like betting the Super Bowl props. I'm sorry. Right. All right. I'm getting to the party late. But the pirates picked up four new starters and their number two four new starters on in the field and their number two pitchers back in the bottom line. The pirates are probably going to close 81. All right. So all the movement keeps going up up up. But right now, even if I didn't know that I could play under 80 minus 110. And I just played over 78 and a half minus 104. That's a profitable middle. And there's middle like that all all over the place. But people don't want to tie up all their money. That's with no handicapping. That's with that's with a sharp third grader could be a fifth sharp fifth grader. Not even knowing that spell pirates. You could do that. Yes. Right. Right. Now, but people don't want to type their mind. They would much rather spend hours and hours analyzing the Michigan Illinois game where the line is one and 1.75 and figure out what the winner isn't. Guess what? Now we've moved from sharp fifth grader to advanced calculus trying to find winners. Okay. But if you're not, you know, if you're not present in Las Vegas to go from book to book, if you're not a better who has multiple outs, I know it's wrong not to, but many don't, right? So let's talk about Joe Pete is appearance. Plural. Parenthood says these last this last week. Joe Pete, I killed it. He just killed it. So if you missed his appearance, I will give you the executive summary, the aggregation. Oh, no. If you will. So and everything Joe said, I agreed with completely. The bottom line is how do you set a season when for someone this year in any sport? He did baseball and he did the New York meds, but this will work for any sport. We got to start put more beautifully with baseball. Yeah. Yes. Yes. Basically what he said is forget that you are what your record says you are. That's not correct. You are what you should have won. All right. And the number one thing if you've only got 15 seconds to estimate what a team should have done. Look at what they call the Pythagorean wins, but we're going to make it even simpler than that because I don't want you to have to square anything is that if you if you scored 500 runs and you give up 500 runs, you should win obviously 81 games. So every time you go south by nine games or north by nine games, but nine runs, you should pick up one win. So a team like the white socks who got out scored by 90 runs should have lost nine more games. So they shouldn't said winning 81. They should have won 72. And the other three teams that got out scored by 90 runs last year were teams like the Miami Marlins, the Minnesota twins. And those teams won on average like 70 in the low 70s. But somehow the white socks only won 60 games, but they should have won 71. So think about that. I know they won 60 games, but they really won by just luck run luck 71 games. And that's why I love the white socks over 66 and a half this and the other way to look at that is in that same category, right? For teams last year that score that were outscored by 84 to 95 runs. The variances, the Marlins 179. But they were lucky. They were lucky. The A's 176. They were lucky. The twins 170. Your white socks 160. So the twins kind of won what they should have right these other two teams won more. And the white socks were just massively unlucky. And you you're right. You can do this with other sports, but there is no other sport with this many games, right? Yes. So that's why it's beautiful and baseball. And then Joe took it to a second level where he said, well, that's just runs. Now there's a certain amount of sequencing and cluster luck. You do realize I do this on the show every year, right? Every year. You've been a pioneer. Yes. You've been doing this for like like for as long as I've known you objected that word. So you're old. You're old. Although I hear you're crushing you're beating a 4.5 tennis player. So that's impressed. Allegiance. Can we talk about this also? Sure. People who claim to be 4.5s and tennis are rarely 4.5s. It's like on your dating profile. If you're a guy and you say you're six foot, you're 510 and a half. So my hack, if you're a guy on your dating profile and you're and you're actually six foot, say you're 511. And here's why you might lose a few prospects. But when you meet the gal for the first time, immediately you have under promise. And you have over delivered this guy talked so much and then he's like, I'm a 4.5 and I'm beating him. And in my head, I'm like, well, this guy's a 4.5. I must be ready to join the tour. Next thing you know, you're having dreams about getting a game off Andy Rodik, but famously, famously Todd Wichinev says when they go and gets tough and the matches on the line, the people get we bet son don't do well in tie breakers and Gilly does not do well on the highest leverage point. I really don't really. Anyway, I didn't mean to stray from from the Joe P to thing, but that is the beauty of betting baseball season. What season laws and then of course you need to adjust for roster changes, personnel changes that maybe people get the third part and people one thing he didn't mention and age if you've got some really aging dudes, you got to assume regression or if someone has a home run, you're like, Rally hits 100 home runs. He's probably he's probably not going to do that again. All right, we got to talk about Todd Wichinev's 26 to 1 streak and the psychological impact that that had on some who did not participate. Next on a numbers game. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners, but let's be real mindset alone doesn't get bets home pros win because they've got the tools, the data and the discipline. And now so can you be some programs you access to the same real time insights the sharps use, no secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets tap the link and see why serious betters are turning knowledge into profit with Vsyn Pro. A numbers game on Vsyn, these sports betting network. If you're betting college hoops, that's the time to get your edge right now. You can get Vsyn Pro access through May 1st for 29.99 with our hoops, many a special Vsyn Pro gives you daily best bets, real time betting splits from draft games in circa AI powered prop tools full access to every Vsyn show on the man. They also get our March, many of betting guide pack with team breakdowns, betting trends, future strategies picks from Vsyn's top analyst. If you're planning to bet college hoops, Vsyn Pro gives you a real edge. Side up now at Vsyn.com/subscribe. We get tweets meeting the book. I always appreciate you all. All the feedback. This is let's see Mariners geek. Well, look at it. Where's he? South Africa. He said hello boys from South Africa listening to the show. If you're the jets at number two, don't you have to trade down to get three or four guys? One guy seems very risky, especially running back. I think you're right. I think I think a lot of these teams up top. So what makes betting on this draft, I think difficult. I think there's going to be some trades high here. And I think if you're the jets, you have so many needs. That's not a bad idea. The other question is, you might be driving on the wrong side of the road in South Africa based on this picture. Oh, they go on the left. Paul Don Goucho four. Always wondered how it gets determined when Kelly gets the boot or the three man squeezes in play. Hashtag skins for life. There you go down Don Goucho. Kelly does, first of all, he does not get the boot. We do not use that terminology here. Kelly leaves the studio when crack is here, when Fesik is here, and he stays in studio when it is a more Kelly focused basket ball golf fish topic ish kind of thing. I don't know. We just make it up as we go. We don't know. There's no rules here. He gets the boot from the M resort. And then what do you do, Kelly? What do you say? And then and then Grissom just tried to walk out of the studio and Kelly is in bouncer mode. That's what I mean, producer. I'm not in so much more than producer. He bounced him out of here for God's sake. Danny Bromett UCLA baseball minus one and a half plus two over the walls. He says balls are rated from the last over rated from the last few years. This year's team going to take some lumps. Bama sluggers. So no play tonight for the angle or no brain dead Parley. What are we supposed to do? Enjoy the game? Hydrate make responsible decisions. This feels wrong in any legal. I already budgeted my emotional roller coaster for the evening. Well, there's that. Steve Fesik kind of to join us for a few segments. Once again, as he does each and every Friday on Fesik Fridays, always a pleasure to have him. So, okay. By the way, at Fesik sports on Twitter, I should probably mention that. But I say it very sheepishly because God help you if you're oh dear with Steve on Twitter. Okay. Todd Wischneff our buddy. Been doing college basketball. He does college basketball every year. He has a discord channel this year. Migrated over to discord when he. Oh, exceeded a limit on another platform. And he has he is now over last. I heard last I caught over 140 units to the positive. This week earlier this week had a 26 and one run over a couple days, 26 and one, which is just awesome. But you I'm interested that you were struck by this as well. If you were if you are part of the discord or if you know Todd like we do and you couldn't take advantage of it, it was interesting how people reacted to it. Yeah. So I referred to like the fear of missing out the FOMO. The FOMO. And and by the way, I'm wrong about lots of things. No. However, Gilly when Todd started this crazy discord thing, whose idea was that? Oh, no. It wasn't your idea. Okay. Hold on. See, I'm going to try to channel Todd here. Don't take credit for that. You you were the one saying he should be charging money for it. And Todd resisted that. And Todd found an alternative way. Who predicted that Todd Wischneff would have a monster year with his life. But you were all of us. Yes. All of us dead. And you know why? Because all of us recognize that like famously in our group chat, we say, why would anyone bet pre flop big? Yes. When you can bet post flop. And and just the edges are there now to be fair. Todd ain't selling nothing. He's just tip of rattling the tip jar every now and then. Yep. All right. So he's not constrained by the normal rules. He doesn't care if the game's going on. He's going to give you UNC Wilmington team told over, you know, it's not widely available. He's just telling you what he personally is betting. So on any one night, if you're engaged, maybe you'll get two thirds of his place of maybe half depends on many outs you got. If you got unlimited outs, you're probably going to be able to get 80%. Well, okay. So there's a bunch of things here. So I hope he doesn't mind me bringing this up, but but Will and I actually talked about this afterwards because Will really was, you know, he was depressed that he wasn't able to get it on most of this 26 to one. Yes. And the reason will missed out. And well, you've got the deal. But my understanding that he just got a dog for his four kids, yeah, a bomb cyclone hit Connecticut with 38 inches of snow. So all the kids are home. Any had to work his butt off Bill 80. That will always work in for reason. So that's why I tried to say to him. And I know he knows this rationally, but it might help that someone else said it is. You can't kill yourself too much. You can't get too upset because all these reasons won. So I don't get I don't get Carl Sacks basketball or Dr. Bob's because I do a show every morning too, right? So they're releasing them while I'm here. So densely, Dr. Bob releases the moment you come on air. Sure. Bob is like when is going on? It's just a random coincidence. It's seven a.m. When A and G comes in, think about this. Every doctor, Bob customer can't listen to you for for for on a Wednesday or Thursday for 32 minutes while betting his 28. 28 plays an opinion. Okay, wait. So so there's life gets in the way both from work and personal. Yes. Then there's the notion you alluded to this. So he's a Todd is doing team totals. He's doing full game totals. He's first half total totals. I for instance, with all of my outs, the really late totals, I don't have any of those. Right. The team totals are such that I can, but only at certain ones. And the one and now and then there's then there's those X games, right? So the not the main betting board, the extra games, which doesn't write X. So you need to know whether the boy is on the regular board or the export or have trouble finding that point is like I have outs that sometimes they're up sometimes they're off. And within the course of 10 minutes, they take them up and down me too. So so the point is is that to do this even when this is and this is the conundrum of sports betting. This is the point of all of us. Even in the best of times, 26 to one, even if you are buddies with the guy and you are have access to these plays, there are all kinds of reasons why you will not be able to capitalize on all of it. However, even if you are as well prepared as anyone, you might do better. And as an example, like when it's like it says, and Z Wilmington over, all right. And I don't have their team total. Well, screw it. The guys hit 11 out of he's got 11 to know. I'll just bet NC Wilmington and I'll bet the game over and I'll let the chips fall where they may if I don't have the team told me I'll bet derivatives of Todd's derivatives. Because he's telling you, hey, dummy, NC Wilmington's going to score a lot of points. Yeah, probably like the game over and I probably like NC Wilmington. And that is different from the reason that we shout out Todd. That's different from like the NBA tank up a loser thing. You wanted to make a comparison between them. Well, the comparison I would make, I heard part of you're saying where someone like lays one and a half. So that's a great enhancing. Yeah. By the way, get a betting exchange so your bid ass spreads on these money lines is tiny. So instead of laying minus 900 take back plus 600 lay minus 740. All right. Yeah. And you're going to make so much more money if you get down on this very true. But that's not that's not a FOMO situation. You're right. But but I'm going to I'm going to goodness bear most bears going to get mad at me. Oh no. So the Chris the bear Felica who's tremendous on the show and just was he on today? Yes he was. Okay. So I believe he's missed out on the Todd Wischneff discord. He has missed out because he says he never got an invite. Right. So the natural reaction though is that when you see somebody up 60 units 80 units 100 units is to bury your head in the sand and say, Oh, I've already missed out. All right. Correct. And while that attitude is actually an excellent attitude to have towards something like Bitcoin that has gone through the roof. All right. It's a terrible attitude when you have someone that's that's going to keep something that's going to keep being profitable like a Todd Wischneff discord like a doctor Bob college football plays like it be easy to say, Oh, I miss I miss Bob's great run was just going to keep winning. So it's irrelevant that you missed out in the past. Get in now. Yeah. I don't want to speak for Chris. But I also think Chris has a life balance that he wants to keep as well. So it doesn't bother him in that way either. That is very fair. And I don't I frankly I don't want your excuse. Sir. So I don't have an excuse. Will Hill has four kids and like like like and bomb cyclones and like and like multiple like jobs and podcasts and stuff and the like. So I don't know how he's able to do. I know how you're able to do. I text you like, Gillie must be. I tell you I like fall asleep through half of these because I just said, you know, I come in. I come in nine am on a Friday. My boy, Gill. I don't know if I can make it. It's like Stevie. Well, Kelly and I are but five. Anyway, I just think it's an interesting subject that we don't often talk about when we have and we have all this time. It's really important. Oh, yes, people get that they they screw up the the the the FOMO. They hear some random nonsense. Not even logical trend. It's like 21 and three. Oh, I got to start betting the Paul schemes never gives up runs. The first five innings after he's like had this great run. And it's like well, it's so priced into the mark. At that point, you know what you're probably better. I've never having heard about. And so much 20 and three trend. That's right. And so much of that is noise anyway to begin with. It's just random that it occurred that way. Whatever. Not a past. I was I was yelling a poor scut. Side for he puts up with me so much like he was giving me like this great trend. I'm like, I predict it goes 50% over the next 20 place. He puts up with you too. All of them are puts up. Well, unless I'm a complete jerk. That puts me in my place. You. I. Okay. Steve's got more to talk about. Including how smart casino owners versus gouge Eric Steven. Oh, he's the smart one. I was going to say please put him in the correct category. Coming back on a numbers game at visa. These sports betting network. Back on numbers game. Live from circle resorts, you know, down to Las Vegas, go Alexander. This is the entire break. This is all we're talking about is the. Those of us who are immersed in this world. The stuff that we put up with doing this in game stuff. And I didn't mention this on air, but I'll mention it now, which is what inevitably happens with me. And this is probably. I'm not throwing shade here, Stevie. This is probably the fundamental difference between me and you is that you. You become this beast of a human who if you spot an edge anywhere, you don't care if you're a wife and child are in the way you will push them out of the way to make them. I'm not home right now. Right. I'm not literally I'm yelling that for me after about 10 or 50 minutes of getting spun a million times or not getting the same number that I would want. Or just outs taking them up or down all this stuff like after a while in my brain. I then have the life assessment of is this really what you want to do with your life. Why don't you just bet those tennis and I have no idea what I've even bet like it's not unusual. I'm looking to an account. What's this? I'm up 4,000. What's this? I lost 3600. Right. I don't even remember betting because we inevitably have more on one game than we do on any other. Because if it's a wish net play, I'm getting down and if it's not that team toes not available. I'm playing the derivatives of if I the first half he likes first half over. Surely that she likes game over. We get whatever we get my loved one Stevie in the group chat like ads is on and Todd's like I wouldn't do that. Mike Montessano on Twitter. I love how would anyone talks about betting strategies or whatever when it comes to extra games. LeMoyne always gets brought up as an example. Did you bring up LeMoyne? I think that he did and I always famously tell Todd right X by the play LeMoyne. I believe a regular board game. But high point X. How hard is the Todd one letter just say X. I have a trivia question for you who scored the most points in any season in LeMoyne basketball history. Michael Montessano is your answer chance chance copper pot for what it's worth. Sometimes you can get those late totals on Calci. Sometimes works better on your laptop over the phone because you get all it's on the computer and not on the app. See chance that's all I need is another like I do not want to think of Calci in that same like I don't need another chance. So this chance comes I got a bone to pick with him, but I appreciate that all he does is text in Todd's group chat, which I'm too stupid to figure out how to like get the chime did not go off. Oh, I don't look at that. It's a chime chime chime. And here's chance copper by chance. I like your stuff. I just want Todd don't text anything. No messages until the day the night is over to the Todd picks and all you get is Todd's face you don't get anybody else. You show me you have to show me a try. I couldn't cut Don Goucho for hot damn got on we get tweets best show in the game. They go Don Goucho for thanks for thanks for tweeting to begin with touchdown. Jesus the best part of physical analyzing team totals when he throws out quote then you have to factor in players lost or old age regression unquote as if those topics hadn't just been covered every year for the last 25 by Gillen is baseball nerd friends. I think you touched down. Jesus he's like talking at me like I don't know. Hey, I'm looking for it also with the NCAA tournament coming up for people to come up with this is some kind of algorithm on which teams are able to win. No one's ever done that before right. You see the ones coming up now like that. These that seems familiar by the way 26 and one how improbable is 26 and one if I know I didn't put into a description if you assume someone's like only a 53% picker what's the probability they'll go 26 and one I'll tell you what it is. It's zero. It is zero point zero. So obviously it's not zero but it's more like zero 0 0 0 and then there'll be a number. It's like it's a once in a lifetime occurrence to do 26 and once. Incredible. Jason H 11 good topic to discuss at some points how to manage bank role while you're part of a massive win streak whether it's yours or you are following someone else. That's a question and that's another part of sports betting right fighting our instinct to be undisciplined about stuff and I would say in general people under bet in situations like that because like the fact when Todd goes 26 and one what was my estimate of what Todd was going to win before the 26 and one would have been 54% right. Well now what is it it's got to be 58% all right well think about what's my optimal Kelly bet on a 54 if I'm laying my 110 that's a 3% ROI. All right Kelly criteria not getting a bit look at 58% when 52 and a half breaks even what's the R.I. on that it's double digits okay so now I should be betting literally 2 and a half times as much per play based upon now is it possible I should change my assumptions on what Todd's going to hit based upon two nights. Heck yes you go 26 almost occur for Fanny if you go 26 and F Fing one you know it's like how are you not going to be like raising someone's probability of victory last one money gun guzz or buddy from us. Oh I love money gun guzz speaking about how is it that profit X allows you to bet you mask games when all sports books and Massachusetts are prohibited any thoughts I would guess it's the sweepstakes car about that allows them to do that. Yeah there I think that they're regulate I'm not an expert but I think they're regulated federally instead by the states. It's not it's not sports gambling it there under the yeah they're under the sweepstakes federal thing at this point yeah so I think sweepstakes car about it's going to go away with prediction market they're under prediction market I think right. Well they're not regulated by the commodities okay it's a sweepstakes game right but it's the same yeah it's we could do that subject another time. Okay gouging casinos versus the casinos that get it you love this topic I do it and literally this is the casinos that get it and the ones that don't so you go into on the mid strip and they're still making lots of money because they're high rollers and there's some fine properties but they have abandoned what made Vegas great basically the dentist or the plumber that comes out to Vegas and has great value and gambles and has a good time and gets cheap food cheap good whiskey. Good gamble free parking and the Southpoint understands that's really important so they have the dollar 50 hot dog remax but they do not enforce it go you can get right back in line. Yes I thought you want you are a dick you get your seven dollar you get your dollar seven dollars steak and eggs of one entry per person that when they do enforce but you can go you can go back in like like twice but the bottom line is just your wife ever say something to you yes all the time free parking. Three to two black Jack good video poker just across the board stations does a really good job with that. Circa like it's not they're high in property but you can just walk across the street they have so many great stuff like at at the deep by example I've been to that happy heart for six to seven PM have you been to this party no the greatest thing ever so you show up and and and just give me your players card right at the player's club and they give you a envelope of money all right it's free play all right and you get to drink for free for an hour and I'll drink and so you drink coke yeah you know you have I mean so and it's just a big party and guess what the casino owners there sometimes to say hi everyone hit jackpots and the places packed and you go to like the place next door and it's Friday night it's empty and it's like you know what all you do is copy I like I like I've famously said you know resorts world everyone should be fired because it's like Steve when showed you how to build a parking garage right he showed you how to like have an attraction and have people see it and why the note that worked. That worked we're going to do something completely everybody smarter we're going to put our parking garage far enough way that you got it uber to get to the casino Steve still not figured out that there is a resorts world parking lot that is that a butts to the building but you see you insist on going to the floor while there's tens of thousands parking I don't go there at all but there's tens of thousands of parking spaces other people yeah some other people are using in that law you are correct that the when it opened they steered you to the bad parking lot I haven't been there for a while they don't like me over there shocker really them too yeah okay and so if you the juxtaposing this though against the middle of the strip which has its nights first of all that they have their stretches where they are packed for sure but every once in a while man there are some nights on the strip where you're like wow or is everybody Tuesday after the super cool like like the two the Tuesday and so we'll be fast and into what would be fascinating to me so the hard rocks come up they wear the marajas right so they're going to the guitar and that's tar is big that guitar is the hotel okay it's like it's amazing so Joe Lupo used to run the start us race in sports book then he became a key man over at Bogota now he's he's the head guy running you know the hard rock which is a high-end place will Joe remember his roots because the start us famously they used to give away they give away money and plaques you get little little little coupons on Friday night during the start us line and they would just give give away money and plaques and seek Williams and John Kelly would host the start us line it was the greatest thing ever I'm guessing Joe he's smart cookie I'm guessing he will have some of this stuff to bring back you know middle America to his joint even though it's a high-end joint I hope so man I hope so because I and I don't think this is a controversial thing to say I think most people even the those who are the most pro Vegas people of all will concede there has been a colossal losing of the way why not just have like a 399 great shrimp cocktail that's a break even thing to bring people in you know and then you feel like you're not like you'll loss leader the $13 gourmet candy bar you know that that's being sold by the MGM you know it's just like don't sell $13 candy bars you know come on yeah I mean we saw it right like at some point there is there is a point where you go too far and people are like wait wait a minute why am I going there again by contrast like look at circle when they when they opened up they had they had their first sports book no big betting on sports I think Benson and company did a great job they still lost $100,000 you know what the good well from stuff like that is just tremendous I'll leave with this but also also they I understand they're trying to protect their interests but they're on the wrong side of history with prediction markets also that's a whole nother subject but they just are my opinion Steve thank you always a pleasure for the best sports thanks for having me on going Steve's a everybody again you could follow him he's a little more ordinary oh dear oh dear though I agreed with your own dear there I agree with that Steve's everybody Kelly back in the chair will we cap all the bets next on a numbers game at the sports betting network it is a numbers game live from circle resort casino downtown Las Vegas in Kelly Bidlin Kelly back in the chair after he was evicted by both Matt Grissom and Steve has by the way phenomenal exchange between Matt Grissom and Steve Fessick off air Steve saw my college baseball guide that Matt was so kind to give me and Steve's like I'll give you $100 for that sounds like okay give Matt the 100 I'll give you the thing and Steve realized it was college baseball not MLB 45 minutes later 45 minutes later he doesn't want the guide and Grissom has to give him his money back oh I think no I think Grissom was just giving him his money back anyway yeah out of kindness yeah I still don't know if Steve realized it was college baseball even then we get it is the like the sure glad you caught one and this is I know we got we got the tweet before about like why does Kelly leave it like I like to make room for these guys you hear enough of me all week it's fine these guys come out it sometimes I'm just screaming in the back though sometimes I'm just screaming in the back right this is like like Steve can't figure out how to work discord this is not a chance copper pot problem this is a phasing problem was that darn Ellen Meyer who just goes sometimes I don't have an earpiece in right now they can talk on the trash they want about me and then the parking garage how many times if we had to have the conversation with Steve bro he still doesn't know that there's a closer parking lot and he complains about all the time and I would argue actually that if he was going to the right one and you know me I'm not wanting to give much compliments to this place he's one of the great parking lots of any casino it's one of the best definitely on the strip for access into a casino oh man one of a kind Steve as a character we love him Mr. can't pick one on Twitter in all caps ready for this couldn't agree more with Vegas losing the focus on what's important the players enjoying themselves and taking care of the players these days it's super tough to even just get free rooms free play credits etc hashtag bring back old Vegas yeah with you Mr. can't pick one I will hawk eyes I will HKYS this is very very nice I mean this is why do I listen Gil a few of the answers there are many betting angle stats guests especially crack and the fact that Gil is a gambler and speaks our vernacular love the show game recognize game I walk us and chance copper bodice is angry chance I got your back so much chance is angry at the sick he goes well I got a bone to pick with you Steve as he says you know by no me old distribution but you can't figure out how to mute a channel in a chat group get him get him I have it turned off I drive myself crazy with it on and by the way I'm not the only chatter box in there you tell him chance get him chance by the way this is the easiest thing in the world is you just literally go to the top I know I know oh my god if I can figure it out Steve I promise you can promise though I will say on the discord you know what I couldn't figure out confession how to have a audio ding or whatever yeah for the mentions unless I'm looking at my phone I'll miss him who is making fun of me recently I said it was making making fun of me recently for discord because it's the only thing I have in discord yeah or our Todd's channel I got Todd and I got a Luke's weight just just just draft all I have his thoughts I hear a recap of the bets on the show today earlier I had a tennis play it's only one I might have more for these and subscribers later as these five tournaments going around on the ATP and WTA towards their global so they're all in different time zones it is 24 7 around the clock so some of them are not lined when I'm handicapping the first time around but I am on Zaynep Sanmez in Merida Mexico today Zaynep Sanmez who got us a win yesterday I have her at minus 11 versus Christina Bucsa you might be able to get Sanmez at a better number than I got her at last night she is Turkish I'm gonna give you the exact number that I'm seeing right now on this but that is the tennis play from Mexico hard courts outdoors as a WTA 500 she's minus one of seven she's a few pennies better right now against Christina Bucsa again these are season longs that I have made in this week during the show we've talked about them you can to win the national championship in college basketball 16 to one I'm all about it couldn't wait any longer I know it's not as great as a number as I could have gotten earlier in the week I was stupid to wait till after the same John's game but I want it to have it and I just I don't want to have to wait any longer so you can to win the Nadi at 16 to one and then Victor Wemba Nyama to win NBA MVP 25 to one he is at 25 to one again she is going to go tonight for OKC shaken stand to win to to miss a six more games still but again those ab injuries are pesky so OKC is going to be very careful with them and somebody's looking good with his con Kinepple rookie the year bet looking better let's try is still a long way to go the you know I'm a little scared of kill is the narrative sweet like moving too far in my direction for flag like comes back for like the last two weeks it has one huge game like all we all forgot about Cooper flag which is like a 45 yeah exactly this which could happen totally could happen I'm not sitting here saying con could it will should be like minus 700 at this market did add again last night plus to 18 well that was I think I got four bets in on Kinepple now I have a feeling I'm going to settle for now now that it's like a coin flip I've calm down I'm much more OK with that respect now that we're giving to con in the end this race you got purple earlier I got purple and I might be back in you know if they don't adjust properly like a week from now be back in I'm going to be scared to lay a price with con and then one for me tonight actually took the points with the bucks who as we've documented playing a little bit better here recently they have the mix coming into town tonight so catching eight and a half at home with Milwaukee Paul car joins us earlier joined us earlier talk to the law combine with us which is pretty fascinating he's also got of course three plays in the preem all of them on Sunday you want some soccer action he's got it Arsenal and Chelsea playing the draw plus 3 10 I think I'm going to jump on that one yeah me to it's also if anybody cares like me 8 30 Pacific start time. Oh hey so it's a later one you know what I mean it's not like it's not like it 5 a.m. or something like that so I can see it sounds like something good put on it the gym you know so funny 8 30 a.m. on a Sunday sleeping in for us yeah for us yeah Arsenal Chelsea draw plus 3 10 Brighton to beat nodding him forest and full them to beat Tottenham both of those at plus 110 always shop around for the best prices on those and any other sport Chris Vellica champions league round 16 man city to advance minus 160 versus Rayal Madrid college hoops he's got the falls to reach the final four at 16 to 1 and then major league baseball he's all about Jackson sure of the brewers to win NL MVP at 50 to 1 that's the sort of well see if showhake can get through this season kind of of bet but of course his bread and butter horse racing golf stream Mac D. Armada stakes race 13 the number two horse without without his name of the horse 8 to 1 on the morning line found of the youth stakes race 14 also Gulf Stream the number four horse commandment 2 to 1 on the morning line and then an aqueduct Gotham stakes race number 10 the number two horse Hammond I've seen guilt seen too many Scotty Shepard markets recently and Steve the proxy tweets for me to read without not think without who without right that's right what we better boy Steve the proxy really wants to own that it was a great idea and ease yeah it's all fired the tweets off everywhere you go Steve torch D on Twitter helping Fesick out without a just mute the chat with thank you for graphics. Oh my God thank you thank you torch D you might have the one to put the set on your panties you might have to like actually give them a phone call or something at some point though if you really want to help I met torch D by the way I believe did you know that Matt Griss in studio college baseball bets he is on Miami today against Florida Miami minus 130 I think he sort of mentioned as an aside he doesn't he doesn't like Miami after this game in this series but he likes Miami tonight minus 130 versus Florida today or tonight I'm not sure those Friday aces make a difference right like that can swing an entire team I get that he's also on Florida Gulf Coast minus 154 versus BC I believe his line was BC still falling out from the winner and then a money line parlay from Matt which pays plus 120 plus 121 or thereabouts he's on Auburn versus Nebraska paired with Oregon State versus Houston so both are $2 favorites but the money line parlay will play will pay plus 121 and I didn't even catch this I forgot about this already Fesick did have the white socks over at 66 and a half wins Fesick's going around town he just keeps adding to some of these so he keeps adding white socks on a scale I don't know what he called him a ladder I should say he's all about the pirates over to him like you're going to get that one in July I can see he's getting a little too frisk is the ladder stuff make you feel old just like terminology we didn't use I never know it like it made sense but like you know 10 years ago nobody ever said that Danny Danny Higgins helping us out with some tweets Brian McCarthy NFL PR guy saying NFL clubs NFL clubs were informed today that the salary for the 26 season will jump 22 million per club 22 million per club to 301.2 million added another 77.6 million in benefits and that's 378.8 million per club and player spending tremendous growth so there you go more room to wiggle good for NFL teams just keeps getting higher. Let's go. Yeah thank you Matt Chris and sorry Matt Chris and what was the sorry he's listening and yelled at him really oh yeah that's sorry Matt was so kind he came and he did a whole segment he gives me a guide Hey when to get out of studio we're gonna get back on air then he almost got back to when we get back on air Kelly screaming at him the guys there might still be muddies sitting on the ground somewhere I don't know that's throwing money at him man all right we got a clear prop points is next Jeff Erickson and Nick Whalen and don't forget when we're back Monday right after the show on Tuesday our MLB draft which was right as well talk about that extensively on Monday and Tuesday and Joe Peter Monday Joe Peter Monday enjoy.

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. Discussion centers on sports betting strategies, particularly in baseball season win totals, emphasizing the value of statistical analysis and market inefficiencies.
  2. The concept of "Pythagorean wins" is highlighted as a method to evaluate team performance based on runs scored and allowed, rather than actual win-loss records.
  3. Challenges in betting include limited account access, market variability, and personal constraints that prevent bettors from capitalizing on all opportunities.
  4. Anecdotes and examples illustrate the psychological and practical aspects of betting, such as the "fear of missing out" and the importance of having multiple betting outlets.

Summary:

The transcription features a conversation among sports betting analysts discussing strategies and insights, with a focus on baseball season win totals. They explain that evaluating teams using "Pythagorean wins"—based on runs scored and allowed—can reveal market inefficiencies, as seen with teams like the Chicago White Sox, whose actual wins deviated significantly from expected performance. The analysts emphasize the advantage of betting on season totals due to reduced variance over a 162-game season and the availability of profitable opportunities even without deep handicapping.

However, they note practical challenges, such as limited access to betting accounts, the need for multiple outlets, and personal constraints that hinder bettors from acting on all insights. The dialogue also touches on broader betting topics, including the psychological impact of missing out on winning streaks and the value of tools like real-time data and expert analysis. Overall, the discussion underscores the blend of statistical analysis, market awareness, and disciplined execution required for successful sports betting.

FAQs

Baseball season win totals offer great variability between sportsbooks and allow you to overcome short-term negative variance if your handicap is directionally correct over 162 games.

A simple method is to use run differential: for every 9 runs a team outscores or is outscored by, expect about one more or fewer win. For example, a team outscored by 90 runs should win around 9 fewer games than a .500 team.

The main downside is opportunity cost, as your money is tied up for months, preventing you from using it elsewhere. You need a clear edge to justify this long-term commitment.

Todd Wischnew is a sports betting analyst who had a remarkable 26-1 run betting on college basketball, shared through his Discord channel, highlighting his success in finding edges in the market.

Bettors can miss out due to personal commitments, limited sportsbook availability for certain bets (like team totals or props), timing issues, or games not being on the main betting board, making it hard to capitalize on all recommendations.

Multiple accounts (or 'outs') allow bettors to shop for the best lines and access a wider range of bets, which is crucial for finding value and executing strategies like middling, as seen with baseball season win totals.

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