A GIFT TO ANYONE PAYING ATTENTION (Guest: Chase Taylor)

hit it it's Friday September 11th 2026 episode 300 I'm Patrick Ceresna this week joining us is Chase Taylor from Pinecone Macro we're going to dig into the charts take a look at what's driving these markets right now and see what the technicals may be telling us about what's going to come next so Kevin is away this week Chase thank you for pinch hitting on a short notice yeah you bet I'm away next week so this was perfect timing all right so let me just quickly give a disclaimer and let's jump into the chart so nothing in this podcast should be viewed as investment advice listeners should consult an investment professional before making any decisions regarding topics mentioned in this show side effects of too much market huddle may include a besent buyback dysfunction triple digit crude trauma and inflation re-acceleration rash you don't want to have any of those but anyway let's uh let's dive into these charts and uh have a have a look at what's going on so so Chase I wanted to really bring you on and pick your brain about this stuff and but you know normally we start with equity markets and and things like that but really um thematically we have to go straight to the the pressure point source of where things have been uh really building and that's been the re-acceleration of the trend in crude oil now I rewind back to February March instantaneously oil goes to repricing to 120 a barrel everyone was convinced 200 was in the cards and then we had one of the most spectacular positioning washouts June uh that basically uh caught all the traders that were certain that the outcome of this trade or her moves fundamentally and tight markets was going to cause oil to go up and those positions were washed out and quietly now oil's been creeping higher like the oil shortages uh the inventory drawdowns all these things are are actually legitimately um you know uh now uh a thing and it's certainly sending shocks to the market we'll talk about the impact oil's having on the other markets but let's start off by just uh getting your view on what's happening in oil what's your view where is it going how do you size this up yeah so speaking of I think I have a rash from from that washout um I think I think one of the the craziest things I've ever seen in markets was the fact that we literally round tripped all the way back to where we came from before the war despite you know the obvious loss of all the production that was one of the craziest things I've I have ever and will ever see and it was like one of those in real time where you're like this is like this is pretty momentous and historic you mean you mean as crazy as negative crude oil prices in some way it may be crazier um but you know now that you're at 100 bucks like you look back at the fact that we got back into the 60s and it's just it's it's crazy how big of a gift that was to anyone paying attention and as our buddy Paolo Macro kind of coined this is almost like a second mouse gets the cheese trade um and if the war doesn't end it's going to be a third mouse gets a Lambo trade I think so hopefully it doesn't uh because of the obvious effects if it doesn't but this whole thing is pretty simple like you got washed out obviously because the MOU but more of the point you didn't keep going at 120 because of big SPR releases and the fact that China backed away from buying and in a way that literally nobody saw coming it was it was massive the way they stepped away and they're they're just nibbling now. like that they have increased imports but it's not if they're not nowhere near to where they came from so the fact that you're back at a hundred without that like if if they jump back in at pre-war levels then I mean you would we would be you know in the clouds very very quickly so this is a fragile trade obviously the Houthis now control the Bab al-Bandab straight and the Iranians at least half control the straight form moves so if Iran wants this price higher they can get it higher so as long as this war doesn't end it's going to be a big deal. going on I think beatings will continue until uh until until it's not on anymore what what's your over under that they recognize that their strongest positioning is when Trump is most vulnerable right before the midterm elections and would it be pushing their luck if they kept negotiations past the elections where they simply don't have a deadline from which and then they could drag things on like do you think that there's a possibility that this uh that this kind of um they use this leverage point as a as the point to get the deal that they think they can get I mean I think it's possible but I think the problem with that is I don't think the president really cares that much about the midterms and and I think people are maybe over indexing on how much Iran cares about it like at the end of the day um I'm not saying they're not going to press into that because I think they will like but I I think I think that might get a little too much attention you know the president's talking about like as soon as the war's over like we'll have a deal or whatever or they'll you know surrender like chances are until until the U.S. decides like they will accept you know Iranian control of the straight it's going to keep going on and I think eventually we will we'll try to dress it up to make it look a little better by making the fees you know air quotes you know uh voluntary or whatever but I think that's probably going to happen. I don't know when we get there but but that's where we're heading and we see already like come Monday the Gulf states are going to sit down with Iran and talk about some at least temporary arrangement to get stuff out which I think obviously would be a bag of money to get some stuff out which is interesting given the sanctions and all that but as long as the war's on oil is going to keep going higher once the war's off it's going to go a lot lower it's it's it's truly that binary I think yeah so um let's let's specifically talk about price levels obviously Monday if some oil flows through maybe that becomes the uh short-term catalyst for uh some mean reversion on oil uh but like what levels uh do you feel are uh structurally where um dips should be bought and uh and where do you see oil going do you think the asymmetry is in continuing press crude oil or is it to play energy stocks that may uh still not have been fully priced like where where what's the your uh ideas for how to approach uh this energy space yeah so for for me like I've been long through this whole thing but I was long the December contract which unlike front month is you know at a bit was at a big new high yesterday so like it has performed a lot better than front month but what I will say is in the last week 10 days whatever I've started to migrate out into May of 2027 because that's way lower way less um and then just like when I when I got into December back in the spring the beauty of that was no one thought this could last until until Q4 right so it was mispriced so like if we keep going for a few more months May is wildly mispriced it's in the 70s like I think I think December of 27 is like 71 um so like if we keep going long enough though those are wildly mispriced and what I will say is like for people scoring at home just like the ET oil k um to avoid the k1 for for Americans don't want to deal with the tax headache that thing has monetized the roll yield like crazy the the last it pays a dividend every month the last one was like a 30 annualized dividend so it's just monetizing that roll yield the total return on its over 50 on the year like it's been a great investment it's beating semiconductors on the year which I don't think anyone realizes um so you can just camp in those because of the you know pretty extreme uh backwardation um so I think those are the trade like the oil equity is you know they don't just price in the next six months they have to price in the next 30 years or whatever which once the war is over oil is going to be cheap this is a this is a great um kind of uh conversation that you started here because uh you know this is the there's two different approaches one is listen let's talk about the the front month spot prices of oil and where this volatility is going and and how this trades on the short term but um when you step back and recognize the term structure and the fact that in this backwardation that all of these uh farther out contracts are really still trading at much lower levels that have not accounted for the 400 million so some uh you know barrels of oil that have been dropped down in global inventories the question is is there a higher shelf for long-term oil like forget about the story that oil is going to 200 what if oil even if everything opens up doesn't go back down to 70 and what if it stays up at 80 90 dollars and that's the new higher floor for where oil stays and if that's the case all these longer term contracts uh have a very clean up side if the if that thesis comes to fruition and that's the interesting part of your may piece of your thesis going out to may But the one thing I'll touch on is that that I think also influences the earnings forecast for a lot of energy companies because, you know, they're forecasting not what they're getting at spot, but where's the kind of long term average price that they're going to be able to be profitable. And if the level of oil is higher for longer, then a lot of these energy companies are trading at a discount. Yep. So it's tough because like and a lot of this depends on how long it goes. If we go another year or something, then there's so little SPR left globally that you're talking about a year or two to refill it or five years refill it, which helps a lot. But I will say once this is over, like, you know, the Saudi Saudi productions at 1990 levels, the Saudis can go back to like 11 million barrels a day or whatever after this UAE is out of OPEC. They can go they can go ham. Obviously, the Iranians can double their production. We have more and more coming out of Latin America. Like. You could have insane production, you know, as soon as 2027, if this thing ends. So from that perspective. I would I would expect to be in a pretty nasty surplus pretty quickly. So I'm not for me, I'm not going to be bullish once this is over, like as soon as I'm confident the straight is going to be normalized. Like I went out of oil probably for a long time just because I think everyone's going to go full max, you know, production and get us back down probably towards the 50s. The only the only bright spot in that whole scenario would be if the U.S. production kind of lags, which in the last couple of months, U.S. production has been not great. So, like, if that were to accelerate somehow, then OK, well, now you have a whole new ballgame. If the if the biggest. Producer in the world can't seem to to increase, but, you know, the Chinese demand like and like, I mean, real demand, not just imports, but like on the road demand is really pulled back. So that that makes it hard to be really bullish, especially knowing that a lot of people can really increase production. All right. So let's let's move on to the knock on effects, because oil has, I think, been the center point of of pain and the transmission at mechanism. Is obviously bonds, interest rates and subsequently inflation fears, inflation expectations and therefore Fed policy, ECB policy, Bank of Canada policy, central banks policies around the world. Like this whole thing is tightening credit, making credit more expensive. And and this obviously is putting pressure on risk assets broadly because of this. So what I want to start off with, let's actually talk inflation itself. So we yesterday and this morning, we had the PPI and the CPI numbers coming out. And clearly, you know, there was a lot of with the FOMC meeting next week and the odds of a rate hike being slightly greater than 50 percent going into the CPI. There was a lot of people that were basically making this a binary thing. Where if, of course, CPI comes in at 30 basis points, they're going to hike if it comes in at 20 basis points, they're going to stay. And we got that 30 basis point print on the core CPI and the so for futures Fed funds, everything just suddenly made, you know, the probability of a rate hike now, like, let's see, it's 88 percent, 89 percent right now being baked in that that next week. So, you know, we're going to have to wait and see what happens. August numbers. So the next month is the one that's going to bake in this oil surge. So that means that next month in the pre-election, we're going to very likely see a hot print on the CPI. I don't know how much it's going to be already anticipated and priced in, but we basically are, you know, this is, by the way, so this is our three month so for futures out to December. You can see for just the last two days. A clear break to lower lows. You know, we're now pricing in pretty much four and a quarter on yields towards the end of the year. Right. So they're they're fully anticipating now that we're going to get not only September, but a very likely another move either October or December. So give us your take. What's what's your take on inflation? How's the story going to play out in your mind? Yeah. So not only did we get the point three on core, but if you look at super core was point five. So you're talking about annualizing above five percent. And, you know, all the all the doves at the Fed just keep talking about like, oh, well, underlying inflation, which means, you know, inflation X, everything going up is not bad. Like it's been it's been getting better. The reality is, you know, if six dollar diesel that finds its way into everything, I don't care what anybody says. Like it just does. And it's not just diesel. Obviously, there's a lot of things getting more expensive. Tariffs are still their own problem. You look at the import prices for all the stuff, memory and all that, like you have technology inflation. Normally, you never have technology inflation. You have deflation that's flipped on its head. Same for goods because of tariffs. So, like, you start with like a rough spot already and then you throw on all the energy inflation. And then we have El Nino making agriculture prices go up. So now you have food, you have energy. You know, you have, you know, food and everything else, but you also have technology and goods. So it's a very, very inflationary backdrop. I mean, if you look at a now cast for nominal growth, it has an eight handle. So if nominal GDP is eight, diesel six bucks, like, yeah, you're going to have a bunch of inflation. Anyone thinking otherwise is is probably, you know, deserves a drug test at this point. With that said, if you look out on the curve, we have three point six hikes priced. And if that's making the two year basically an over under on four hikes, kind of. And even though I'm a hardcore inflationist right now, like, oh, are they going to hike five times? I don't think so. So despite how much I think inflation is going to be a problem, I think the front end is actually starting to get attractive. So if you pick your if you pick the right spot on the sofa curve, I think it actually makes sense to bet on less hikes than the market at this point. And I was pounding. I was pounding the table even a month ago that the market was sleeping on inflation and sleeping on how many hikes were required. I think it's caught up to reality here. So actually, like the two year from the long side, I can't get there personally on the long end. I might buy some calls, you know, on like 10 year futures or something, but like. I'm not going to own own those. Yeah, but the short end doesn't seem bad, you know, and if they do hike five, six times, then we have a lot more problems than than losing a few bucks. On the two year, that's for sure. The now so the interesting part about this, and this is where I think that this two year here, I'll put on the actual two year bond here so we can actually see what the two year treasury is looking like down here at the one or two handle here. And the interesting part about this is, is that you're exactly like you're saying there, but it's basically pricing in a Fed path that actually needs the economy and asset prices to be somewhat stable because in the end, I feel that the Fed can continue to be tight, and inflation can continue to be the thesis if equity markets and the economy end up being status quo. And what makes the two year really interesting is that, well, what if the curveball comes in? What if there is a semi-curveball? What if there's a semiconductor crash? What if, you know, there's a some sort of a bigger market correction that can be driven by higher interest rates, like go back to 2022, right? Like when at some point rates matter for equities, and if we see any legitimate market correction emerge, it almost certainly could make the R word possible, like, you know, recession risks would suddenly be talked about, and, and the Fed narrative could pivot very, very quickly, I think they can afford to play this, this position on we're hardline inflation fighters, only until, you know, something in the system starts to actually crack, and then there, we're back into financial stability as a priority mode. What's your what do you think of what I just said? How would you view it differently? Yeah, I think. I think what you said there is important because one of the reasons that you do have all of a sudden, you know, three or four hikes prices, it's not just that inflation is ripping. It's the fact that growth is still ripping, that jobs are fine. Like, I think if you told a lot of people like what was about to happen with inflation and energy costs and everything, they'd be like, well, sure. But then jobs will go negative and, you know, growth will be under two. And so who cares what the problem, the problem for those people is nominal growth eight. And, you know, jobs are frankly better than than it even makes sense. Like they blew out every single expectation in the last jobs report and they'll probably be revised back down some. But still, I mean, given that immigration is basically flat, adding over 100,000 jobs is very hot. The one saving grace the Fed has had is that wages aren't going up, but that's not a saving grace for the economy. To your point, like there are there are some banana skins. You can slip. One out there. And one of them is the fact that, you know, like I said, super cores up half a percent month over month. What isn't I promise you is wages. Wages are not up half a percent month over month. So real incomes are falling, which means consumption is going to start falling unless people are going to put everything on the credit card. And that alone can obviously hurt an economy that's two thirds consumption. So you're right. Like, and that's one of the reasons that I'm actually looking at the two year and and surprisingly getting interested. From from, you know, buying it instead of selling it for once. But at the same time, like if the work keeps going, you know, we're not going to stop at three, four percent inflation. It's going to go a lot higher than that, especially if El Nino, you know, really digs its claws into ag prices, then it's just that much worse. So, yeah, like I think we reach the point. No kidding this week. And I would say yesterday it kind of turned to the point where, like, the market's been able to ignore the war. And all the side effects of the war, I think yesterday was kind of a turning point where that ended, where it's if the war doesn't end, like, clearly we've reached this point where our energy prices are going higher because we're starting to run low on SPR. The Chinese are coming back into buying like you have two strategic choke points now at grave risk, not one. You just lost a lot of the buffers you're able to deploy for six months. So. Now the war is just like staring down the economy. But at the same time, like, if we know that here, then obviously the White House knows that and, you know, probably is winding up the jack in the box over it at Axios, et cetera, to, like, start floating deals or whatever. But but if not, if not, if if if the war just keeps raging on for another three months or whatever, then then stocks are going to have to start carrying bond yields will start to mess with the real economy. You know, sure that, you know, Google can can borrow all they want. At whatever rate, because who cares? But, you know, the small business down the street can't handle so for ripping higher from here. And, you know, there's a lot of money borrowed at towards the short end that we all forget about that suddenly is problematic. Well, so let's let's let's emphasize that short term is very much about FedPAC and the Fed can signal, even though that's not a Warsh's style anymore. But. But they could signal that they're not going to be so aggressive, not that they're going to be dovish, but that simply that they're not going to be aggressive hawks and they can keep a short term rates more stable. But let's move on to the long end, because the long end don't play like that. And we saw a percent attempt to to, you know, twist whatever. Operation twist, you want to call this thing, but basically spend some money to basically keep a lid on the long end. And so far, unsuccessfully. And so here we are. I have I have the chart showing here the 10 year treasury futures collapsing over the last week and a half. Just it's a bloodbath on the 10 year, like the 10 year yield is almost a 5%. You know, we're we're we're ripping on the upside there. And the thing is, is that risk assets are misbehaving, but mildly they're just like showing that they're irritated. But but we haven't seen a substantial deterioration. But when bonds are behaving this way, there's there's a date with with destiny where there's no there isn't going to be. A bond crash and the stock market's going to be like holding hands and singing Kumbaya and everything is good. There's going to be a consequence to this. How do you size up the long end? And do you think that there's going like where where's the threshold where as where maybe even the Federal Reserve may intervene, even though they may not necessarily do QE or something, but they may attempt to stabilize different parts of the current stock market? United Kingdom 30-year bond ripping to 590 basis points. Again, fresh new highs on this. The 30-year Japanese yield, not really blasting new highs, but still near its highs. The thing is that while we try and make this irresponsible U.S. government or spending or whatever kind of argument, reality is that oil transmission has actually made inflation a problem everywhere. And this is a bond problem globally. Do you want to add to something on that? I would say it's a problem everywhere except China. We keep talking about how our bond market's outperforming everyone else's, but in reality, not at all compared to China. But that's because they don't have any inflation there, which is not all good for them. You're absolutely right. At the end of the day, all global bond markets have problems because energy and food prices is problematic. Same with, like I said, memory costs going higher, making technology expensive. That's also not just an American problem. So it's absolutely spot on. But I will say the U.S. has the biggest primary deficit of all of these countries, with only France even being close. So I think it can get worse. It can get worse here than these other places, especially since our our treasuries are over owned by everybody for obvious reserve reasons that can get it shook. Whereas most of these countries, you know, they own more of their own and stuff where like the acute risks going forward, I think we hold more of those than the rest, unless Japan were to, like, dump all of their Aussie or French bonds and hold on to all their American ones or something as they repatriate. But I don't really see it going down that way. But the point absolutely stands. A lot of people make this as just one big U.S. problem, as if, you know, the yields in Germany are flat on the year or something. And that's that's obviously not the case. Right. So so now the second thing that I wanted to therefore touch on is is basically talking about the fact that there's a competing credit in that many of these hyperscalers are also in there. And I think that's one of the things that we've seen in the last couple of years is, you know, that there's a lot of people that are trying to, like, sucking up all available credit out there. And so there it's not this just that the U.S. government is trying to issue so much and the cost of that credits going up, but but now this huge data center build out and all of this capital expenditure that's coming into this AI build out is like, I think the tune for the year was, am I correct, saying it was like a trillion dollars that they're that they're trying to have issued? In that, I apologize if I got the wrong number wrong. It's insane. Yeah, it's like two trillion that they've taken on now. Yeah. And and so, you know, we have this issue. And so now I'm putting here junk bonds. These hyperscalers are not junk. But what we see here is that JNK has distinctly broken down in the last two weeks. Like what we're seeing is that this is no longer just a treasury problem, but it's starting to actually now. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. trickle in across corporate bonds. And so this is where I think things can get messy. Now, we haven't seen the credit spreads blow out. So this isn't an issue where the quality of the subprime or lower grade debt is somehow now has to command an extra premium on yield because of default rates or something. But generally, we are seeing that this is now trickling in right across the board in the credit markets. And so this is not just a U.S. government bond issue now. This is now, you know, that 60-40 portfolio, your 40% in bonds is dog shit. I mean, TLT is a 50% drawdown now. Like, this is brutal. Absolutely. Something super important. That I'll add to this. And I wrote a long piece about it like two, three years ago that no one cared about. And frankly, it is boring. But it's really important. And that is, and I don't think a lot of people have recognized this yet. If you go back, you remember all the global savings talk, whatever, 15 years ago. And it was just true. Like, there was just an insane amount of global savings, mostly from Asia. And that made the cost of capital just really low. Obviously, you throw in. All these big trends like demographics and stuff. And it all just compounded on it. But all that's changed. And very, very importantly. Like, I see people understand the secular changes that have happened. That make, you know, the whole bond market has turned back up. And now, like, policy rates keeps putting in, like, higher highs and higher lows. Like, the opposite of the last 40 years. What I don't think people realize is that global savings itself peaked. And it's coming down. And that, like, that is half of the equation of supply and demand, right? So, that is a really, really big deal. And as the world changes, as we get more multipolar. And, you know, like, the U.S. is telling Europe to defend themselves. Telling you guys in Canada way worse. Like, all these countries are going to want some of their own capital back. Their own savings back. Because if you tell, like, Europe, hey, go defend yourself. Like, cool. Then give me my treasury so that I can go build my own tanks and fighter jets. And that goes for, you know, countries all over the world. You're basically telling Korea you can't protect them from missiles or the Philippines or whatever. Well, if they want to build their own defense, they probably have to cash in some of their investments they have, you know, in America. So, like, point being, global savings is less than it has, we've been accustomed to. That means the cost of capital is higher. And then the demand for other countries to deploy their own savings domestically instead of just. Parking all in the U.S. to get some extra return. Like, that demand's growing for them. So, to talk about 64. It's a big topic. But it's hard to build a trade around that. That's just such a huge macro topic that it's a bigger. To me, the trade is don't have 40 or even 10 in fixed income. To me, fixed income is now a tactical trading sardine, not an asset class. You know, I'm telling it to some pension funds, so they'll have a meeting about it in three years to discuss it. Yeah, yeah. So let's let's chat about risk assets and the impact that this has been having on risk assets. And now looking purely at charts like a technician, S&P 500 looks there's looks like nothing wrong with it. I mean, it made higher. High. High. What were its previous highs acting as support, holding its 50 day moving average, holding above its Fibonacci zones. If this bullishly breaks out of the flag, it could be a continuation pattern like you can just on the surface. It's very hard for anyone to identify that they should be worried about something on the S&P. But the one thing that I've been actively talking about with my members is. The fact that we literally have seen a collapse in market breath. Now, I'm measuring this here by the number of stocks trading above their 50 day moving averages. And we were a month ago, we had 70 percent of the stocks in the S&P 500 in bull trend above their 50 day moving averages. And that got halved, like literally half of those 70 percent of the stocks broke trend. We're seeing a substantial. And of course, we can we can discuss where it is, but like, you know, industrials broke down, defense contractors broke down, all the bond proxy, high, high interest rates, sensitive names broke down, like you're basically seeing, like, if you literally were not in the mag sevens and energy stocks and maybe some miners, you know, like if you're not in that group, you're not going to be in that group, you're not going to be in that group. Right. Right. In that basket, maybe some biotechs or some of the other names that may have been holding up. But we're seeing a substantial deterioration under the hood. And and this asks the question, like, if the S&P was, in fact, going to be bullish and capable of going and printing eight thousand on the upside, you have to sort of see where the leadership is going to come from. Like where where what is going to be, you know, the the the general, the leader that's going to. Put everyone else on its back and and grind higher in this environment. And initially, it's very hard to build a thesis when you're looking under the hood where that's going to come. And I want to look a little deeper into that. But what's your first comment? I just want to hear your first impression on this part. Yeah, I mean, it's this is really tough because you got earnings growing like 30 percent, which makes you feel like you should be on the moon. But then you have. Yeah, like. Rates ripping energy, ripping inflation, ripping those are headwinds, but to your point, like I think you. gotten to the point where you're a mag seven or bust whenever you whenever you lose that kind of of breadth mag seven has to do the job you look at today you're bouncing off the 50 day and that prior you know um old resistance is becoming support just because mag seven is doing it for you uh so here's your mag seven chart so you can we can see here that we're about to break 52 week highs on the mag seven basket right like uh and so the mag sevens are doing their job uh and uh and they're they're the ones that are holding this together like literally the the seven stocks make up 30 the one-third of the entire capitalization of the basket and uh and they're that important um and so the question i have for you do you think that the mag sevens have got enough gas in the tank you think that this kind of hyperscalers thing is done or like how do you think that the mag sevens have got enough gas in the tank you think that this kind how do you size up the equity markets here what who's going to win this tug of war this really high earnings solid momentum and uh versus that of higher rates and uh and a consumer that is basically getting pinched by uh you know higher prices on everything their spending patterns are changing you know changes the landscape so like how does this play out in your mind i think i hate to be overly simplistic but it really just comes down to the war like if something good can happen um out of there then then they'll be fine but if not i think i think the cost of capital is going to start stinging them too you're going to start seeing those interest expenses hit hit hit the line item you know where it's just like wait what they're paying how much for interest like i think we take for granted they used to be a net interest like you know like massive beneficiary used to go look at how much google made on interest you're just like wow well that's flipping like they're it's more of a headwind than the market has picked up on yet so yeah if if energy keeps moving higher and keeps bringing rates higher and they keep spending trillions of dollars on on building the digital sky daddy for us all then i think uh i think i think max i think could be a drag doesn't now i'm not saying it's going to be down a bunch um if it does start going down a bunch you hope you know some of those other sectors can can pick back up a little bit but i don't think max seven is going to save us as long as this war is going on i think the cost of is now you know a thing for them now they can pay it like they got some runway while they can still pay it but it's going to start impacting earnings um and i think they're obviously getting so much love from earnings because people you know you book the gains without booking all the capex because that's spread out over time um so it's it's flattering earnings way more than than it probably should and it is still notable that you haven't taken out bay highs you know on on max seven here in september like that that's not nothing either though we are very so listen uh i you know you you've mentioned it now uh more than clearly more than once that you think that the war is a pivot and so let me corner you on getting a more kind of uh explicit number out of you what's your over under level that the war does have a surprise ending this year oh man that's that's good stuff if you give me the rest of the calendar year do i think we basic more or less do something to normalize straight flows i would say i would put the odds that that does happen at 65 so you think that this is a a possibility like a legit pause yeah i i just think it's too it's just untenable to keep keep going and i i don't know what the magic number is if it's eight dollar you know diesel or something where it's just like they finally just throw up their hands and give up but but i there has to be a magic number out there for for some for some price maybe it's just the so really the question is is like can they get uh iran to uh denuclearize because i think that in the eyes uh of uh trump uh they justified that they had to do this because otherwise uh and iran would have nuclear arms if they kind of if he folded in the middle of his residency on this uh and um and iran moved toward nuclearization uh i think that would be a disastrous um you know blow to just having justified why they did in the first place and that's going to be the really tricky part like how long can iran remain stubborn right do they want uh it to end or is it or you know the question is if iran saw that this was working what if this was their way of of dealing a very bad blow to the western world uh for allowing this to happen like you know like do they want to deal as much as the u.s does like you know there's a lot of big questions that i don't have answers to these i'm just kind of putting my thoughts out there right yeah so i've thought about this way more than than i i should have in the last six months but um i think at the end of the day like if you go back to before the war iran was clearly willing to give major concessions on nuclear and if you go back to the the memorandum of memorandum of understanding it was pretty clear they were willing to give on nuclear so but they were obviously not willing to give on the straight or move they want genuine control there so i think if we were willing to give them that control give them the sanctions relief give them the bag of money that we apparently agreed to i think they would i think they would be happy to give on nuclear now do i think they want to keep developing that program in a way that's not weaponization but could turn into it quickly if they needed it to yes sure but that's pretty common in around the world um so i think they can get there i think now whatever deal we walk away from is not going to be easy to sell it's going to basically be impossible to sell but you know you're going to take an l here it's just what color do you want it to be and how big do you want it to be and at some price on energy on some price on bonds on etc like you you just want to take whatever l you can get and move on um you know so that's been my framework since the war started that we're going to take an l it's going to be ugly um i thought the mou was going to hold at first like i thought we're just because that was a big l and but it's like oh this is this is smart this is the thing the only way to do this is just to get out of there and take the l but to flip it though you know iran's economy is horrible right now they have a bunch of inflation like they need to get out of this too um they this is good for them to just keep pressing this forever um i think they need that sanctions relief they need the money they need the oil exports um so i think they you know as long as they get they get their big things like control the straight they'll they'll take a deal so let's let's kind of uh put it all together uh a two-third odds that uh that uh they take a an l uh inflation expectations drop uh the uh the fed can take the foot off the pedal and that's gonna fuel the stock market for another leg higher if this scenario plays out that's uh am i putting it generally uh right yeah i think that's all fair um i think that's why i kind of like the two here that's why i've been trimming i was absurdly long oil um i've trimmed that up heavily uh because once it starts to really hurt like that's when the odds of it going away pick up like you said like when policymakers panic that's when you should not panic um and just looking at my screens i figure they're getting closer and closer to panicking so trimming what's been working and yeah get ready for some of the stuff that that could work on in that world so listen i want to make sure we go through all the uh a bunch of commodities because me and you uh both love to talk commodities but before i do i want to get just uh you can do some quick short comments uh obviously we had uh a semiconductor uh bull rip in the second quarter that was uh pretty historic and so pretty much you can almost label it a bubble outright kind of a move on the upside clearly that was led by the cosby the south korean index you know did a three bagger move in a couple years on the upside just an extraordinary rip both of them have had a substantial correction cost be more so than the thing a 40 plus percent drop and uh nothing short of a pretty pathetic bounce so far and uh and the semiconductors you know from from peak to trough as an index you know did a 25 percent drop and i've been struggling along a flat 50 day moving average as well um mag sevens could rip markets good thing but like where are we in this story like uh is there is this still just uh you know mid game for uh one more rip or is or are some sort of meaningful highs been put in here yeah i i'm very open to both um for sure like at the end of the day this just turned into a both smh and dram you know it just became wildly over levered players where when you have enough people in 3x etfs you know even if you just wanted to take a breather you're going to take a 40 haircut and i think that's what happened um you know like the earnings for all these companies are still great their outlooks are still great i mean if you look at the valuations on some of it it doesn't seem that bad the problem of course i'm open to tactical longs on on ai trades here the the the problem of course becomes like at some point we will realize like we built more than we needed whoops and that's going to be an a nasty moment for all this stuff um the way these kinds of things work when you have technological revolutions is every time in human history we build too much of it and there's no moment where we're like guys i think we've built too much we should slow down that's not the way humans operate yeah we take it all the way until it blasts into a wall and then we look up and go oh whoops we built too much this is what that will happen with this i don't know when it might be next month it might be in five years i have no idea literally none so that part scares me like on that downside but you know that's kind of beauty options reading cap downside i think causing some of this stuff can make sense um or you know outright longs where you have a pretty tight stop um because yeah like if the war ends and rates pull back and everyone's probably going to stop look over at this and want some of it you know like so i'm very i'm very open to both sides here i i like this stuff until that wall appears but because that wall will be a really nasty event you gotta you gotta be the risk management there is important that's where folks should listen to you on on you know some call structures and stuff so that they can define their risk well i think uh at this stage and what's interesting actually about uh the semiconductor space is that obviously we saw absolutely ridiculous um uh we saw absolutely ridiculous uh uh moves and where volatility on semiconductors went exploding to the upside to the you know some of them were 100 plus percent implied but we literally have seen a volatility collapse um uh in the semiconductor space i i thought i had the semiconductor but we literally seen uh almost a having in and and in many cases the implied volatilities uh on um on things like nvidia are essentially at one year lows in other words the the optionality of the semiconductors here is once again more attractive than it was in terms of using them as a vehicle for for expressing you know a tactical upside without uh having to overpay and so it makes them a very interesting tool in this this kind of window that if you do see the possibility that semiconductors have another leg higher then uh then right now using them as a as an interesting strategy for sure so i remember i remember d ram moving 10 like a day in each direction like they've all got they've all got pretty nutty there for a while but now you can see on the chart like smh is basically falling asleep at its 50 day yeah yeah that's what it's exactly it like it literally there there's no flows that are driving it's interesting though because nvidia is uh the largest holding in the semis and a semiconductor etf uh but um really nvidia trades more like the hyperscalers and mag 7 and far less like its counterparts so like when all the others were going through their monster rip nvidia was barely participating and you know when it's going up when the other ones are going down like it really just is marching to the beat of its own drum it really doesn't seem like it the correlation exists there but you can see like nvidia double top retesting well i don't want to call it a double top because it could still break out to new highs and keep going uh but we retested its previous highs and we're going to and we'll get a big tell as to whether this part of the mag 7 basket is going to be the leader uh going into the end of the year right this is this is uh where the semiconductor story really gets interesting yeah and if you don't like the ai story by apple because apple does the opposite of whatever ai's done for the last few months yeah oh and like look at this rip on apple here like this uh uh broken again uh to a little bit of a higher high not yet at 52-week highs but it closed the gap and and but more importantly it's being accumulated it's it's there's flows going into apple this is evident and and you know when you need some leadership somewhere apple is clearly providing it and um and so that's certainly one of the ones to watch and of course what's interesting is the dog one for a while has been doing a lot of work on that so i'm going to give you a little bit more detail on that in just a second but i'm going to give you a little bit more detail on that in just a second well rumor has it that's weird eh you would think anyway but um let's let's talk commodities and let's start off with gold okay so uh big picture uh i'm gonna just put on a weekly chart we had a a solid two-year bull market 2024 through 2026 an extraordinary bull run and now a 25 correction that was about a six-month correction on the downside uh is is that enough of a correction is this uh is this uh recent strength uh enough to have ended this bear market mean reverting correction and has the bull market resumed uh what's uh what's your positioning here on the precious metals yep we'll uh we'll get again go back to the middle east for our north star because if the war keep rages on for another few months you could actually put in a new low um the reason we ripped if you remember was actually the when the treasury secretary started threatening to kind of monetize some stuff hey gold just took off like a scalded cat it's come down since because besson's kind of put the toothpaste back in the tube on that um so if the war ends we rip big time and then if we start you know putting some medicine on the symptoms of the war by throwing the tga at the yield curve we're doing a little qe or whatever if we don't like the way this feels and we start taking medicine to so we don't have to feel it start any sort of gimmick to get yields down artificially then it's going to just absolutely rip again so i'm a big fan of being involved i love it you know medium and long term but yeah if the war raises on i wouldn't be shocked if you if you did go you're talking about whether or not the short term and and you know what there's long rich histories of gold uh doing prolonged consolidations and so a ping pong match between four t eight hundred forty two hundred for the rest of the year before a bull breakout next year is not something uh that gold has demonstrated being capable of doing things like this and so it could be just a a quiet start but to me uh overall it exhibited a clear breakout and usually when you get these kind of fifty percent retracements testing key fifty day moving averages it becomes a interesting inflection point that is the big tell on the short term whether or not uh there is a bull trend because if it gets bought on dip here technically at these levels um that's demonstrating that general accumulation and uh and that could spur a move to five thousand here and uh and we're gonna get the tell right here in my opinion it's i don't think it's gonna take much more than a week or two to know whether that uh is gonna play out exactly and it's a fun chart because you had a really nice consolidation breakout so like perfect structure there and then now you have like this ugly head and shoulder you look in structure it's like a it's kind of like a choose your own adventure on the chart yeah yeah uh you know what one actually i'm going to circle back briefly to to crude because i what i wanted to to kind of point out which was i thought was super interesting we were using the commitment of trader reports on on cot signal.com here i wanted to highlight that we've been now two months ripping on the upside of crude uh and what's what i found fascinating was how the story played out so this is the net positioning of gross longs and gross shorts on large speculators and what was fascinating was that obviously in that june washout uh on the downside there was a huge build of short sellers that basically built a short position that was at a a five-year extreme and at the same time they washed out a chunk of the long um oil bulls and uh and cleaned them out there but what i'm finding fascinating is up until and we'll see on tomorrow or today's cot report it hasn't we haven't it hasn't been out released yet to see for this week's results uh but when are these shorts going to get squeezed out because they're that we're still uh at uh on large speculators isn't commercial hedgers they're going to get squeezed out because they're they're going to get squeezed out because this is large specs that are holding a couple hundred thousand contracts short on wti and uh and they haven't been shaken out with almost a 50 rise of oil off of their loads like this is fuel and um and if or if there isn't the deal um then at what point uh does this offside positioning uh, get forced, um, to, uh, to actually, uh, um, you know, reposition. I thought it was super interesting and it's definitely one of the things to watch. Do you have a comment on that? Yeah. So, I mean, I think we had, we've had like a, about an 8% week on oil, something like that. So I would, I would be surprised if you don't see that clean out some more, but the week before, like I thought, I thought you, you would have lost a lot more shorts, gained a lot more longs than we did. I was kind of surprised by last week's report. So you never know, I guess, but you know, if you're a bull, wait, that's what you want. You want to see price go up 8% and then the commitment of traders barely budge. Like that's just perfect. And to your point, yeah. Like if any, any CTAs left there, they're probably got out this week. You have some, some, some other institutional money, like Jane streets made the news for, for their positioning and stuff that maybe it's just being stubborn for other reasons. I don't know. Yeah. Well it's, it's certainly interesting to see how that plays out. Now let's talk about copper here because on a positioning basis, copper has been crowded, decisively bullish. Shorts have been squeezed out. Longs are, have built substantially and rightfully so because the fundamentals were actually favorable to copper. There were tightened markets in the scenario. And so rightfully so, there was a reason for that. There was a reason to be bullish and everyone positioned that way. And, you know, even if there is a crowded cot report, like in terms of positioning, so long as they're being rewarded with higher highs, then, then there is no problem. But we got a pretty good reversal yesterday based on at least my interpretation. You can correct me if I'm wrong, but it was all about the tariff thing in terms of delays on some of the, the potential tariff stuff on copper. And, and, and, and that created a reversal. And, you know, one day doesn't make a new trend, but, you know, this is a, a trade where everyone is quite, the consensus is outright bullish. Like they, they're, they're, it's very hard to find anyone that is leaning bearishly on, on copper. And so the question becomes, you know, is this one where some volatility may, you know, come in largely, just because it's such a lopsided positioning. How do you size up the copper markets? Yeah, it's pretty easy to, especially on the chart to see some potential downside is, I mean, you just surfed that, that trend line and the 50 day. So if it breaks down, it's such an obvious spot for people to get out that I would not be surprised if people did get out. And I also hate the tariff speculation part. Like it's just nothing I want in my trade, because I don't know what to do with it. I like copper, but what I've, one thing I've learned with copper is there, there's a lot of assets that can just keep trending even when everyone loves them. Like obviously mag seven has done it for years, things like that. In my experience, if everyone loves copper, it's about to have a bad time. And to your point, everyone loves copper. So it definitely deserves a lot of, a lot of caution here for, for people that are alone. Yeah. So like it's now at the 92nd percentile in terms of crowding, but you can observe, like we pretty much are sitting right up along the highs of, of a five-year look back in terms of net positioning. And so, you know, we're, we're in a situation where there is lots of room for, and, and notice by the way, that the short sellers have been more or less flat, the gross shorts, it really has been a building of gross longs. They're speculators are the ones piling on the upside, which basically is your CTAs and your, and obviously other trend, following traders that are playing a great fundamental story. And the question is, is that, is the tree about to be get shaken out? And that's it's going to be one of the more interesting puzzles to solve here as we go. All right. Let's let's talk Nat gas briefly. Or unless you want to talk about extensively, but I'm just going to start with the UNL because it's a strip really, just reflecting you know, the fact that the entire term structure has the, the water level has, has dropped and the, the tide has receded and everything is down. Clearly there's ample supply in North America and and it's been a very, very ugly period in here. Let's start off just at the high level. Uh, is this overdone? Is, is, is, is, or is there genuine reason that, that this is going to stay here or go lower? How do you size up the Nat gas markets? Yeah. So I put on some puts for December 26 early this year, and I still have them because I think, I think we still have downside. Um, at the end of the day, this was a combo of weather, which I think is going to keep of, of long, mild, you know, shoulder season, which is gonna be problematic. But, but more of the point for me was it was the associated production. I, I thought because of the war associated production would rip. I thought it would come with higher oil production than we've got, which we haven't got, but we had still got the associated gas production just ripping higher. So, yeah, to your point, we have too much gas in North America. Um, and you can't really get rid of it. So if we do have a long. Warm shoulder season where like you get into October and November and you're just not getting any really, any meaningful cold shots. Then I think that December contract, which I started, I started my, my puts when we were at four, four, $3 is where I was trying to get to. I think I have the January one up here. It's very similar to where the December is still. Yeah. You still got a long ways to go down. In my opinion, I think can go to three bucks. Really? But you, you know, you know, if you get a cold shot, then I'll bet they're off, but. And often major positioning in cot reports are fundamentally driven. So, you know, what usually, uh, you know, copper's bullish because the fundamentals are genuinely bullish in the same way, uh, natural gas, everyone is net short, but also the fundamentals are dog shit, right? Like this is, uh, it's a, it's a bad market, but what is interesting about, um, Nat gas, we're at the zero percentile of positioning, but we have, uh, now reached, uh, uh, over 500,000 contracts net short, which is actually very close to a five-year low. So the thing is, is that there is, uh, this again has become an, uh, a consensus trade. And like, uh, like we said earlier, when it's consensus, so long as the price keeps rewarding them, that doesn't mean it's imminently going to turn. You can't just be a contrarian on, on first impulse, but you know, there is fuel here like this, like the, in terms of the fact that is, is that this is a pretty consensus that, um, that this positioning is in there. Right. And, uh, and I'm curious, like what could blindside this market that can force many of these speculators to have to reevaluate, because this is such a clean trend, lower highs, lower lows, bleeding. Uh, you know, and it seems almost too easy and that's when the widow maker does its job, right? I think it's, uh, uh, how do you, how do you size up my comments? Yeah. At the end of the day, it's pretty easy to paint that picture. You know, if you get a big cold shot East of the Rockies in November, then this thing will be at five bucks. Like that's simple, but that's, that's where the trade lies is whether or not you can, you can get that. Um, obviously December, you're probably gonna get some, but. If you get a really warm, mild November, this is just gonna keep going lower. Now, if it does get down to three, it will be wildly consensus and you better take off the short by then. Um, but as it always does in the winter with Nat gas, it'll come down to, to the weather. Yeah. That's, uh, it's, uh, it's certainly interesting how it's playing out. All right. Listen, uh, let's go to the one that I wanted to pick your brain on. Cause you it's something that you, uh, is near. And dear to your heart, but let's talk to grains. And, um, what's interesting is I naturally, um, always go to wheat. I don't know why in my brain wheat is my, like the one I go to, but really the action, uh, has been more so in corn than, than wheat, even though both of them have been very clearly ripping to the upside, but like there's been an extraordinary move in the corn markets on here. And, um, clearly, uh, you know, the, the, the catch things that everyone says is El Nino, uh, you know, uh, uh, uh, fertilizer issues with, uh, through the straight or her moves planting seasons and all this different things that was happening, uh, that, that the yields are not looking anywhere near the acreage isn't looking, uh, as robust and all of these different things. But the question I have for you, is, is that, um, is this still, uh, the opening innings? Is this the, uh, mid game or has now this been priced in? Like, where are we? Because clearly things are super bullish and everyone's positioned that way. Uh, but, but where are we in the game? Speaker 2 : Yeah, I think middle, but I'm a pretty big proponent for the fact that weather's like legit game changer here. Now, can you kind of pull back, retest some of these moves, some of the breakouts and stuff? Sure. But at the end of the day, you know, the weather really is that impactful. You have the quality of these crops impacted globally. Now, while the grains have looked good and I've kind of range traded these, like to me, some of the best ones is like rice and sugar, because those are being, the funny thing about like wheat and corn is growing like almost everywhere. So it's a little easier to make up for problems. Whereas you look at things like sugar, cocoa, rice, like they're not really growing everywhere. So I flip first of all to weekly charts, because what's very important to highlight on all the charts you're referencing is that there's been a vicious bear market for three years. Like it's, these prices have just hit rock bottom on. So this is the sugar weekly chart. And, you know, we got down to that 13 handle down for a bit. I mean, we saw a halving in sugar. And while it's been certainly an extraordinary rip on the daily charts, when you put it in context of a three-year bear market, you know, we have two months up and suddenly, what, it's going to end? Like, yeah, you know, to me, you know, you say mid-game, I'm actually curious whether this is still earlier innings as opposed to mid-game. Like, it just feels. I think we need to make a new high here. For like, I don't think a new high is out of the question at all. Sugar's literally been my favorite trade of the year. Like, I still have calls I put on back when we were under 15. I'm not touching them. Like, now I've trimmed up some of the Delta One stuff, but. I think this can go to a new high. Right. Because the localized aspect of it, like the Indian crop is just as bad. So, I can keep going. So, here's the chart of Coco. You were just referencing again, like, you know, over. It was a bloodbath year in 2025. Like, it just got murdered on the downside. And that's not even a halving. That's like 70, 80% decline. Went all the way back where you came from, yeah. Yeah. Like, and so, it certainly had already a very strong start. It's been a solid year. But, you know, it's been higher before. Like, so, are you still buying dips here on Coco? Is this still the trade? Yeah, I still like Coco. The weather. I mean, and this is like mostly concentrated to one part of Africa. Like, this is not a global. Yes, they do grow a little bit in, like, LATAM and stuff. But, like, this is mostly just a West Africa crop. And when you combine the fertilizer issue, the weather, what you end up getting is crazy moonshots like you had in 24 there. Like, I'm not saying we're going to go all the way back to those highs. Those are pretty intense. But I think you can go a lot higher than 6,000. If you start seeing a bunch of disease in the trees because of the weather, like, all bets are off again. Yeah, yeah. So, now, let's circle back to corn and wheat. I'm going to go here on a weekly chart on these. And generally, obviously, this is more international crops and things like this. Ukraine, all sorts of other elements come in here. But, obviously, the view here is that eggs, that this is just the beginning of some sort of move. Food inflation is here. Shortages. Food shortages are going to be a thing. And that these trends are going to stay in place for the next little while. But is there one particular, one of these kind of softs that you think are marching to the beat of a different drum? Or are you generally broadly across all of them in this view? Is there some other story we want to talk about? Yeah, I mean, to me, like, a basket of them is going to be fine. But I think the more tropical ones are the best bet. For that, for me, it's the combo of rice, sugar, cocoa. To an extent, coffee. You know, coffee's kind of been ugly lately. I think it can come back. Right. Right. So, like, yeah, it's a little bit of a dip here in coffee. But it certainly feels like it's turned the corner back a few months ago and really going. Well, I want to leave it at this. When we look here, and, again, the interesting part about the commitment of trade reports, is that basically corn, soybean, sugar, wheat, bean oil, bean meal, all of these, cotton, have been, like, ripping at the 100th percentile of positioning. Like, we basically, and more importantly, the interesting thing about corn on the cot reports was that just going back to June, they actually were near five-year low. Like, streams of short positioning. And a lot of this initial rocket ship hire was actually fueled by short covering. Because if you look here on the green line, the longs never really came in until August. The longs now have pushed to five-year highs in terms of positioning. But they only joined the party recently. Like, this literally was, at first, a huge short squeeze. And then, you know, they were like, "Oh, we're going to have to go back and do this again." And then, you know, we're going to have to go back and do this again. It's increasingly consensus that this is the trade. So, this is not surprising anybody now. But it certainly has the fundamental backdrop to continue to be the story. Yeah, I think that I'll mention both the value and the peril of cot with exactly this story. So, I think you see the value there. You just showed, like, the beauty of that was that was mostly just shorts getting out of the way. It shows you, like, hey, whenever you find something that has some good backdrop in your view and it has a bunch of shorts, like, it might help you. But I'll say that the peril, though, especially with ags, is whenever you get weather-driven stuff, you can just throw the cot out the window. And I speak from experience going back on Coco. I actually wrote up a very bullish piece at the very end of 2022. Made some nice money 2023 and 2024, but didn't really stay with it. And one of the reasons I didn't stay with it was, like, oh, cot is telling me everybody agrees with me. I want to get out of this. And that was, like, the trade was literally just getting started with cot and pretty maxed out. So, if you get a true weather event in an agricultural commodity, it doesn't matter. Like, it just won't matter. Now, it doesn't mean that we're getting that. Like, maybe, you know, the worst. Like, fears of the way El Niño is going to unfold, maybe it's not as bad for some crops and, you know, they're able to come back down. So, I just, I do urge that caution. My analogy that I give is, like, the cot report, like, using a nightclub analogy, the cot report is telling you when the nightclub just got hot and it's shoulder to shoulder and everyone's having a great time. The thing is, is what you're fearful of. Is that, well, if someone yells fire, you're going to get trampled out the door. But the thing is, the party might go on and no one's going to yell fire and you're at the best freaking party. That's an all night you're partying and you, like, chose the right club and everything's great. So, if no one yells fire, then, you know, being concerned was unnecessary. And so… Potential energy, not kinetic energy. It's a great way of thinking of it. Yep. You know, like, it's… And so, it's information, it's a positioning map, but it can't drive alone your bias. You have to, you know, just because everyone's long, well, there's a fundamental reason they're long. And you don't immediately fade that like a contrarian thinking that you're outsmarting them. That's always the pitfall of that approach. So, listen, one quick thing for you. Is there a chart we forgot to talk about? Is there something? Is there something that we should have mentioned here that you want to still look at before we wrap things up? The only one, and it'll stay with this theme, is KROP, K-R-O-P, KROP. It's an ag tech ETF, and, like, nine people own it, as you can see on the chart. Barely, you know, it's got some ugly candles because it's not that liquid. But it is my favorite chart pattern in the world. It's what I call the bubble chart, the beat up big base alpha. Something that dies and then goes sideways for two years is my favorite thing on earth. So, the fact that it's a big base alpha, it's a big base alpha. The fact that this one did that and has some kind of obvious, you know, tailwinds here. 11% of it comes out of China. And China's doing some incredible ag tech innovation that is, like, really starting to flow. They just added it to their five-year plan. We're, like, you know, throwing tons of resources at ag tech. Now, 11% of those aren't going to bring this whole index up, obviously. But I think, you know, the rest of them have big potential. Those investments start really going in. and paying off whenever obviously things get expensive, then all of a sudden And things like precision and like start to really matter to squeeze out as much yield as you can whenever you have the weather headwinds. So this is just one that I like because I can keep a tight stop because of this chart pattern. And I don't know, it might be able to go on a really nice run if the whole agriculture space is early or mid-innings as we discussed. Awesome. Well, thank you. That's a great idea. I'll definitely be checking that out. So listen, before I let you go, for all of our listeners that may want to follow your stuff and learn more about you, where can they find you? Where should they follow you? Give people your deets. Yep. PineconeMacro.com is the easiest way. And I'm at PineconeMacro for Twitter. And then for the RIA I work at is BulwarkCapitalManagement.com. So any of those work, easy to find. Awesome. Chase, listen, every once in a while, you come on here and pinch hit for Kevin and do this. I absolutely love talking charts with you. I thank you so much again for joining. And I look forward to having you back on the show in the future, bud. So thank you so much. Appreciate it. And enjoy the rest of your weekend, bud. I do the same. And I'm always ready on the bench over here anytime. All right. Thanks a lot, bud. All right. So thank you, everyone, for joining us for the market huddle. There's no after show or anything. This one was just a talking charts with Chase. And we'll be back in a couple of weeks with some more content. Thanks, everybody. Cheers.