A Gambling Man and a Family Man w/ Adam aka TheBeagleBets | Ep 139

I guess I don't know how to exactly define it, but because I'll see a lot of the self-described capers who give our props on Twitter. A lot of them, I'll be honest, their process almost didn't seem that different than mine, but they were just doing it really badly. What's up everybody? GP, SP and BB, BeagleBets, Adam. Welcome to the pod. Thanks for having me on the gas. Yeah, we're excited. You got a lot of love on Twitter. A lot of people saying, "BeagleBets is the best that go the nicest person in the space." So, you know, quite welcome to the show. I've listened to your circles off. We've talked in DMs a bit and I think you'll be very interesting to kind of walk through your journey from poker because I love talking to an ex-poaker, guys, sorry, SP, to sports better now. That was good. I'm excited. I'm a big fan of the show. I've definitely learned a lot from you guys. Hopefully I can impart a little bit of something useful for the listeners today. Yeah, we're like news guys. You've heard the breaking news from us. That's kind of our main thing. Yeah, I think let's start from the beginning. I think one thing we like to usually ask is, was your intro to Advantage player? You have interesting first-of-anage player. How did you get started in the Advantage player/bedding space? So first-of-anage player, I guess I don't know if this is just like starting a small business or an Advantage player or not. Well, when I was a senior in high school, I started just like a small eBay business where I would buy these collectibles, like started with a QO clicks and there was like the Star Wars miniature game. I had a magic to gather, but they were little figures instead of cards. So I would just buy somebody's whole collection for a couple hundred bucks and I would just break it up and sell it as the individual pieces. You could probably buy double what you paid. I was making maybe like $20 an hour, which is pretty good. I was like, you know, at high school, better than a random retail job. So I don't maybe more just like a business than really an Advantage player, but I kind of always, like when I was a teenager, I just grew up outside of Boston. I just always like really did not want to have a regular job. That was kind of something that just like, I don't know, I'd see people on the train and they're students like coming back from downtown Boston and just like, it looked terrible to me. I know it's not terrible. Boston's a nice city. Like, good job. I'm sure like 15 year old me thought that just like looked terrible and I just like did not want to do that. So started with that and then it took a year off from college actually to keep running that. And it was growing. I was making decent money for like 18 year old, but nothing crazy. Then I went to college, at least for a bit. And then I met a friend there who was playing online poker and he said, I should try it. And I just started playing and then pretty soon I was playing more than I was going to play ass and it's just got really hooked on that. Yeah, just. I was talking about. I'll let GP run with the poker and reminisce and whatnot. But I'm curious, maybe just before we get into some of that, like, I don't think most families I'm not sure would be like thrilled to hear their kid, you know, doesn't want to go to class and it's more interested in poker and this online business and whatnot. Maybe that wasn't the case, but I'm just curious like how you navigated some of that, those aspects early in your life of, you know, support from friends, family, et cetera. Yeah, it absolutely was the case in my family. My mom, especially, I don't think was to throw over some of my life choices at least initially. I come from like a very academic family, like all my two older brothers and my parents will have like lots of degrees. I'm a college dropout. So it's definitely, it's got some pushback, but by the time I dropped out of college, I was like doing really well at poker. And I kind of just felt like, you know, even if they don't love it at the end of the day, like, I think my dad was a little more supportive. My mom, I wouldn't say she was unsupported, but I knew she wasn't happy, I guess. I'm going to be a photo of it with my choices, but at the end of the day, I don't know, I just, it was working for me. And I mean, I would just be sitting in class and I would just be like, look into the lobby and be like, oh my god, this guy's on. Like, I gotta get out of here. I gotta go play this guy. Like, what over the student union bus time I laughed off and just start, you know, load off like the load off of five pay heads up sitting girl, like it, my head was not in school anymore. It didn't make sense to be there anymore. So you were playing five K heads of singles when you're in college? Yeah. Okay. So yeah, it was really quick. I started in like one fall and the end of that school year, I was doing really well. So I guess it's just quickly chat heads up sitting goes because I think it's a, like, I also played a spins and some heads up. So I'm interested. Why did you end up picking heads up sitting goes? Probably 80 day would be the short answer. Some of my friends who tried to get me started was actually like an elite starcraft player. And he like 24 tables low limit had that, I'm following at that time. And he could just like, he clicked through like a mad man. He could like, you know, play like a million tables. And back then it was like, this was 2007, I guess. So you could just play like a net and mass table and you could just print pretty easily. But I just didn't like playing like a net and I couldn't play that many tables. So I probably like 200 bucks in my account only and I just started playing like 20 dollar heads up sitting guys, kind of definitely just busted that. But it just was more fun to me. I could just like one on one. You could just kind of think through the decisions. You could play any hand almost and I just appeared to me. And I luckily ran pretty good in the beginning and then just, you know, kind of stayed at 20s for a while. But I kind of was learning and then I just sort of took off like quickly after that. Okay. Yeah. And for those listening who weren't lucky enough to ever be involved in a heads up sitting go, it's basically just a one on one tournament, which ends when one player has all the chips in the blinds go up. So did you find that you liked like the battling aspect of it? I only ask you is now we're all in sports betting now. And like I do think like there's such a high level of like battling and like ego and heads up sitting goes that like it's so impersonal in sports betting, but like it felt so personal like when you just like run through this guy's stats. Oh my God. Yeah. He's like every time he donks the turn like you can just call and he'll check River and bet and you figure it out and you just start exploiting and you're just like on top of the world. Like do you miss that? No, I enjoyed it at the time very, very much, but I think it's better for me to have left that thing at the end. Yeah. Fair enough. But I know at the time, yeah, it was a lot, a lot of ego, a lot of like like, you know, like when you would play a long session, you would just like like somebody's will and like they would mess table against you and then they would just like, they just like lose three and a row and just like not load up anymore tables. It was just like, and you get the call. Yeah, like I'm kind of kind of kind of feeling and gambling that I don't think sports betting is ever fully replicated to be honest. No, winning the lobby is from another rag is truly just just. Yeah. And when I used to play on stars for a while, it was pre-limatch. So I was just like a psycho, I would just play anybody and then I figured if I would play anybody, they would quit and then like I would get the fish eventually. So I would just like people would, hey, this fish is on. Do you want to split the table? So if you're like, no, I'm just going to keep sitting and if you want to play, then like we can play and I'll play the fish with the same time. That's fine. Like no problem. And I'm not saying I was better than everyone, but I thought I was better than everyone. So. Yeah, being willing to like a reg battle, both could lose. So like just being willing to like put the pain in and make them tap out is like kind of kind of plusy. But honestly, funny. There's so much overlap with that with with the FS as well, like in the lobby, like especially early on, a lot of what you're saying. I'm curious how you actually got like good at poker or was it the players were just so bad? Were you studying like grinding it hard at that time or are like how you actually got good? I don't totally know how I got good. I think I just had good sounds like a stupid answer maybe, but it just had good intuition. I could just kind of see that people were just too conservative. I just kind of ran people over for a couple years. I just raised a percentage of buttons than everybody or almost everybody. I think more than most people, I defended three bands more than most people. I just kind of intuitive closer to what turned out to be optimal play before anybody knew what optimal play was. Aim crashing down in a couple years for sure, but it did not maintain that edge forever, but like an 0809. Yeah, it was just, I don't know, just always just felt like it had even picked up like other games like I did very well later playing heads up triple draw like high stakes on that on star. I just kind of felt like if it was one on one Could just like in some mirror like it's like you don't have to sort of think about everyone's cars. You can just sort of I could just intuit pretty well how to play like I mean I started in this way that people studied back then I got like two plus two and I talked to my friends and but this is like three solver like the way I was you know The way I would what we would call studying that would kind of be like laughable now Do you have charts back then? Hmm you do it like Nashy for Liam. I like love when you got to like push forward Sure, yeah, I mean I was you didn't have like a open like limp call embrace No, we were just this would like the wild west nobody nobody was good, but I was bad I'm talking was fun, right? I'm absolutely yeah, I was better than most of the other bad friends Well, I think interesting It's something interesting to talk about would be a decision to you know drop out of school and go full-time I'm curious like what you learned The difference was between like you were playing super high-sakes like 5k heads-up set and goes are basically as as highs At least I remember them you guys have to listen to like this is the parent goal of This game type, but like going from doing being a student and then doing this to just doing poker as your job Like what were some things that were different between the two even though you were probably playing the same stakes because it couldn't couldn't go any higher You know at the time it didn't feel too different honestly because I was Like a lot of my friends who were successful even somewhere maybe less successful they would kind of take They would like move somewhere with like poker friends and go to grind house and I just like I just kind of stayed around like stayed about in Boston and Just hanging out with my college friends and you know, so like it almost felt like The money almost didn't feel real right? I'd be playing with 5k's and then like I'd close up and we go to like dollar draft night So like it didn't it's like it didn't matter the money. It felt like a video game I was trying to like win the Shrek's public report that was like my goal The money didn't feel it felt relevant to a point, but it didn't feel like I was so I was like 20 to 20 or something It just and living like a college kids lifestyle even after I dropped out of college, so just It didn't really feel like being a professional in the same way that it would later you know having Being out of college having you know eventually, you know wife kids like it just it would feel Very different you would feel different later, but that my first dropped it out like out as they don't know if it felt that different Because it just felt like disconnected almost like a power up Yeah, yeah, no, I think like that's how I always felt playing poker Even when I was playing full time But I okay, so let's let's talk about maybe like leaving poker starting sports betting or you know What what that time period look like and like why you decided to leave or why you decided to start betting sports Oh, yeah, so all eight oh nine was like the good years made it really well 2010 people, I guess I've started coming up with like early solvers and kind of figuring out how to play I did not know this and I had a lot of ego So I just I started losing at heads of five guys didn't Took me a while to maybe come to terms with the fact that I was actually minus EV and not running bad Money wise. I was winning triple draw and I was winning some empty I was doing lots of empty T's and I was like staking somebody who was crushing So I was like kind of doing fine, but I was like it was definitely drying up pretty quick and Doing that same time I started playing I guess not very high stakes for like sort of semi high stakes fantasy league NBA fantasy Like not dead. It's like pretty daily even but like just season long maybe like a 1k buy-in But then I'd have like each side bet people like 2k 3k 5k like you know finish higher And um think the first year I did it. I won my biggest league probably scooped about like 30k so it was kind of like Kind of felt like an intro to sports betting a little bit like it wasn't sports betting I'm not saying I could beat sports betting because I was like playing fantasy But it sort of got me like down that path a little bit And then black Friday came you know 2011 which Looking back. I'd say was a blessing into skies that like I couldn't just play 5k's anymore because I shouldn't have been playing 5k's Though that was actually kind of good, but I was and I was still playing poker But I was playing on like Bavader and lock poker and it was kind of like boring a little bit playing these much lower stakes now So I just started trying to learn to sports bet kind of was like a hobby, I guess I started um, but One thing I'd say I took from poker was that this like you know the boundaries quite if you can't spot the sucker than your other sucker So I kind of knew I had to I'd just think you're out of way to win because like when I was in college I would force bet a little bit like a degenerate like I just See like all this you know I could spend on the red socks today. I'm gonna you know whatever like I had no idea what I was doing So I started with like a Wang teasers and then my first real play I originated was just um NBA tip up like I would bet on which team to score first based on how often the center won the jump ball Which I would just like track by hand I just go like play by play and just write down like okay like Denver started with the ball This game like you know checking my notebook and very kind of simple stuff But it just I kind of had this idea like if I I wanted to win I didn't want it just bad to be a degenerate And I kind of knew that if I wanted to win I had to find like specific angles that would work But I definitely took that from coming from poker that you need to I'd have a little bit of a plan One thing I'm interested on just just as we move from from poker to sports betting Was it maybe it was you had the benefit of sort of being a forced end to the the career or Changing with black Friday, but was it hard Like mentally to deal with the fact that like your edge was a routing Um, you know because I just know a lot of people get wrapped like their identity wrapped up into whatever they're doing So if they viewed themselves as like a winning poker player or a winning sports better or winning whatever like when that is no longer the case People can can leak for longer than they really need to if they just accept it So I'm curious like if that was hard for you at all if you were able to cut ties pretty easily Um or what that was like Absolutely that was very hard That time I had You know to kind of go from being The college kid with no real didn't really like college didn't really have a plan Well, if you don't want to do after college or anything and all of a sudden just be making all this money It felt like it had a lot of ego a lot like And it was like very tied to myself for that time And Yeah, so that's why I said it was like that What I think it was sort of lucky that I was forced out of high stakes because I did not Probably would have taken me a lot longer than it should have to realize And I did continue to play Part time for probably five six more years kind of as I was learning sports at the same time But it was much lower stakes and it was kind of like a forced reset But yeah, it was definitely like I don't know blow to my Theme or like you know person out like you know just self identity at that time. Yeah Yeah, it's For sure, I think poker really like does that to you too because of the extra ego and being a heads up guy and Being like I used to be able to beat this guy and like there's no way he's better than me now, but yeah Sure, I was like this guy was like a $200 plan. I was a 5k player like why is he you know like you think he can play me now I can be beating me like So right right takes takes some adjustment So you're doing a little bit of poker a little bit of sports um What uh You know, what was that period like like you're do you consider yourself during that period like a poker player? Do you consider yourself a sports better? Um, I'm kind of curious like you you were hybrid for for a couple of years Yeah, I was high before a while probably about close to six years um and Wasn't a super successful six years and stuff. I will say um, I mean, I was winning I was in that winning and I had a fair amount of savings from you know like the better years But it was definitely a It was definitely a setback uh for sure sort of in terms of I was like I was improving but I was starting growing in certain ways, but I was not I'm kind of bouncing all over the place too, you know I was I would say I didn't really have a lot of focus like okay I'm having a great week of poker. That's like play poker this week Like I focus not going well this week. That's like jumping to sports Like it was not a way to be super successful. I'd be looking back as kind of bare but at the time maybe I didn't fully see that So what was also you know you go ahead. I was gonna say like I'm kind of scratching my brain for like people who crush at both now like I can maybe think of like one Person or two people, but it seems very hard to like be high level at Either you know what I'm saying like you're kind of like you can be great at one or or like kind of man above Absolutely, I was married both. I was a net winner but I was my head followed by it's um I can I can see that pretty clearly now even if I couldn't at the time So when did that when did that start to shift? I mean we're gonna talk we're gonna dive more into some of the You know the actual sports betting stuff here, but I'm curious like when What what was the impetus of that shifting and and what caused you to maybe should go more all in on sports and focus on that? So I thought I remember the years, probably 2016, I would say I'm not positive could be 2017, but I think 2016, what I just kind of started to do better at sports than poker at that point, I wasn't doing great, but I was doing probably making more of that. And then the real kind of hard shift was, it was like a family friend, my mom was friends with his mom, he was maybe like seven years younger than me. He was getting out of college and he had a study computer programming and I'd email with him a little before he'd like was interested in poker and he'd kind of been trying to play some DFS and he had pretty good technical skills, but he didn't really have like a lot of gambling background. And basically he was interested in coming to like work with make when he got out of school. So I was like, okay, I'm going to be working with someone I really should have should focus on this and like, you know, try, we'll try to grow this together and that was really kind of. It was definitely, it wouldn't say it took off like immensely immediately, but it was already going fairly well at that point and then it definitely, it was also just kind of like a focus, a least shift, um, just in my focus. I just think quick, they had one brief time at a sort of a poker resurgence. If you guys are familiar with global poker and 2017 it popped up and they would advertise on Facebook in the US and you could deposit with PayPal. Really, it was like a time machine. Like it was so washed by 2017 and I could like cross 10 20 on there because like a table would be like four fish and like one record was better than me and me. So we thought you don't have to be good. You only have to be better than the people you're playing, but for the most part of that point, I was mostly done with poker. Maybe a couple months when that game was ridiculous. Yeah, poker has a couple of weird like, I don't know if you, I think I talked about on the show, but like right when WPT gold launch, I just like, you know what, I'm going to test it out and like people were just so, so bad. Like right off, right off the jump with it. Now it's like, I think a lot of good players are on there. But like for a couple of weeks it was, it was incredible. So I had to let a tiny brief poker resurgence. And I've been humbled once. So when like, I didn't have any illusions anymore. And like, okay, now it's four of us and me and one fish. So like maybe I should just not try the stable anymore. I knew when I was winning there, I knew I wasn't like a great poker player. I knew I was just, you know, beating up on fish. Right, right. That's where I see, yeah, know your edge. Know what's your edge? Where's the money coming from? Absolutely. Yeah, it's one of the best lessons in advantage, Gary Boy. So what did you do then? So you said you, you, you got in contact with this technically proficient person. You were going to work with what, what did that actually look like to start taking it more seriously? Like what, what did that entail? Oh, I started, we started kind of now and focus a little bit more. I was already doing a lot of NBA player pops, which I kind of kept doing some and was teaching him some. But then I used to do a lot of baseball back then. I could just, I could be a lot of baseball pops back then off of this kind of intuition. There was a lot of, a lot of soft pops. And I used to do a lot of live betting and baseball actually, which back then I was back that was a lot easier. It's pretty well at that. But so he started building out a cames model for a baseball, which as well, which was kind of like his big project. And he built a also, but like an NFL game for a bottle, which was like the amazing thing is the early version of that had nothing but spread and total as an input. And you could find the all kinds of huge edges. So it was just a very different, very different market back then. The baseball model was a bit of a mixed bad because if we had built this in like 2007 instead of 2017, it would have been like crushing, but we built it based on streamer. The yes, that cast came out. It wasn't the best timing. So it was one of those things where like you'd be on market for like 13 out of 15 games, then you'd be on the wrong side of the other two sometimes. So if we would bet into openers, we'd do pretty well with that. And then the other cool thing is that it's simmed everything. So we could bet on it. We could see it's in playoffs. It's simmed. You know, first earnings, if those like say like a lineup, just grab and say, well, one team like, it's kind of didn't hit the strong hitters at the top, but it did have a lot of value. But in my head, I was kind of like, well, you just get someone smart. You build a model and then like, you make tons of money, like, but we both learn the hard way. It wasn't as easy as that. I think we all learn that. It's just the less you have to learn. Actually, I have one question on this. Like, I think, did you feel like people in poker just always assume sports betting like couldn't be beat from? Yes. I felt the same. And like, I think that's kind of what stopped me from going sooner to like sports betting until like somebody I knew as a winner in poker was like, no, we're definitely beating sports. And then I was like, okay, yes, I did have that bias and that bias. I would say, hope to make in the sense that it made me start small. Like, okay, I'm going to just take the thing I gave myself like a $10,000 roll, just sports bet. And then like, I didn't really do exactly. They were something that I maybe bet like one to 500 to put on a bet, depending on how I perceive my edge. And this, it felt small stays compared to poker, but it was like, I kind of knew I was like, this might not work. I got to be selective. Look for big edges. They're going work. They go, Andre drum and jumping against some short guy. I can bet 500 on this one. And think if you think it's easy is actually like a is a bad bias. But if you think it's hard, then it's like, maybe you miss certain opportunities in the beginning, but it's actually better that way than like, you're not just spewing thinking like you can just like, oh, I watched a lot of NBA. I can just like pick new bad at the map all the time I started. So what I know, you know, on your circles off, I think it was primarily talked about like NBA props. And I know you just mentioned that as well as like MLB props and you were doing some other stuff at the beginning. Was that like a conscious decision to go into those markets specifically? Was it just sort of maybe just whatever season it was? You were like, all right, let's start this and it's sort of played out naturally or how did you end up, you know, spending the majority of your time on those markets when I would say at that time, and maybe give like a landscape of the places and types of things you were like places you were embedded in. But I definitely know it wasn't like today where there's, you know, a wide, wide array of options, much wider array of options. So I'm curious like how that came to be of that being what you and your partner decided to go after. Probably sort of a mix of probably a lot of a little bit, I guess I would say comes from a fantasy background of like having played a lot of fantasy. There's sort of like this use to thinking about like, you know, what a player averages. Matt, if his someone has a hard matchup, that kind of stuff. But a lot of it was just trial and error. And have a lot of, I guess I just have a very good intuition for kind of figuring out how to find edges. So like before I we had that sims model, I used to do, I don't know if any of the big baseball fan, very obscure baseball player, Billy Burns. He let off one year, he had like 290 and he never took a walk. And they use kind of like a scrub hitter. So they'd buy some to get like a hit like minus like 150 minus 175. I just better to get a hit like every single day. I could just kind of figure out like, and then they would have somebody who was a much better hitter who had like a much higher walk rate and they would have him at a much higher line to get a hit. So I mean, I know it sounds like simple stuff, but it was a simple market. Because kind of into it like, okay, a walk is good as an out if you, you know, if you're betting on someone to get a hit, look for the guy with the low walk rate hits high in the order. And I tried a lot of other stuff that was not successful. I think probably my most spectacular failure was, so I started live betting baseball and I did pretty well in that. And then I was like, started live betting basketball. And I was just the rubber band effect, which is not intuitive to me. So like, well, this team is a 10 point favorite and they are up by 10 after the, I mean, it is a pick on and they're up by 10 after the first quarter. So the line should be minus 10, but it's only minus 6 and a half. So this is the great bet. And believe it or not, it was not a great bet. So I, you know, I kind of just the stuff that worked better is the stuff that I would just kind of keep sticking with more because like, you know, I didn't totally know what I was doing, but I could input like, okay, this is not going very well and this is going well. So it kind of figured out what to stick with that basketball one would have snag me to for sure. baseball is not like that. It's actually a little bit the opposite. If you pick them and now you're like up to going into the seventh inning, say if you're the road team, you should actually be more than minus two because you're going to pitch better, pitchers. So it's like not. And I just found like a lot of random stuff like in live baseball. I would find like, they went the closer was coming in. If it was a one one, they would place that you get like under half a run for the last half inning. Like they wouldn't really place it that well based on who the closer was or even if it was like, we were three run game, they got a like kind of letter runner advance on a difference. So you got like a one one game with an elite close, you could get like minus 300 like, you know, and that would maybe should have been minus like 450 or something. I could just kind of figure out a lot of a lot of stuff. And I use, I mean, it's like almost embarrassing simple metrics, but I would just look at like, how often sort of elite closes would give up a run like in the total number of appearances, how often they give up the least one one. And then I could kind of judge like as a base race. is this situation better or worse than average? And the market just didn't always line up with like what they were, what I would perceive it to be. And you could, you could, I mean, there wasn't crazy edges, because for sure, I find edges like that, just sort of intuition that I know would be much more difficult to bet an after. So this sort of goes into one of the main items I wanted to talk about, because I, you know, when I was listening to your prior interview, it's one of the things that I think makes you stand out versus other betters and people we've had on this podcast is, you're, you know, the way that process is described, it is very manual. And I'm curious like, has that maintained over time? And I want to dive into some like the specifics of how you do this because, you know, me coming from like the different angle of it, like, I hear this and I'm like, how, like, I could never do this. Like, I could never use just like my head and do this. So I want to, you know, obviously, we'll dive into things you're comfortable saying and not, but I really want to want to dive into this, but maybe just to like frame it for today. Like, how do you, how do you, how do you think of this sort of manual model, you know, sort of dichotomy today? Uh, I think for sure, I mean, I still have a very manual process. I was not kind of get into, I have, it's definitely less effective than it used to be for sure. I even say two years ago, when I just stuck with off and stuff, and they're less effective than it was then in terms of just the markets a lot more competitive. I think you can certainly find huge spots. No, manually, you can find this really, and then one thing I focused on, one thing I, you know, I know Chris like flopped pretty well and I can speak, you know, move for me some and one lesson I really took from him is you don't need to figure out how to bet. If you have a big edge on a stupid market, you don't need to figure out how to beat a bigger market. You need to figure out how to bet more on the stupid market. So, um, but on a day, even I mean, even I'm talking like flops though, on a day-to-day basis, yeah, it is a much more competitive landscape than it used to be. So, like, I don't really bet, that's sort of a specific angle. I don't really bet my own stuff late in the day anymore, which I used to feel like I used to feel comfortable with games in an hour. I'd load up, you know, load up the menu and see what was good. I provided reasons I don't really do that anymore. So I try, I mostly try to do a lot of my NBA betting early in the day. And then, even though it's not the most sophisticated process, you know, CRVs are pretty good. You can just track whether line's closed and it gives you a pretty good idea that, you know, I'm still. Still doing well with that. And it's certainly some kind of angles I look for, like especially when like a key player's questionable. I feel like the market sometimes is, you can kind of tell like, okay, if like this key player is out, then the line's going to be like, the line's going to, you know, this player, pop's going to move multiple points. And if the guy's in, I think it's going to close like the line and so on. And he asks, you kind of know it's like an asymmetric upside and, you know, half the time, maybe you have a negative bet, but the other half of the time, you have like a very good bet. That's just slightly. But yeah, right. You know, you might as 3% to plus 10%. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Interesting. Yeah. I mean, I think that's when Calvin was on, like, he's just like, you know, injury, line up, predict it, guess it, you know, and he's not like, he's a lot better than that than me, but if I'm still pretty good at maybe not even, I don't think I'm even that way to guessing if the question for guys to enter out. Certainly not nearly as good at him, but I'm pretty good at sort of guessing like the line with him in is there's to line with him out is there. It looks almost like it's all the way in one one side of that. So there's both the upside. Yeah. I'm curious. I'm curious then like, are you doing minutes projections? Are you doing, you know, rotations when you do your props and you bet earlier? Or is it still mainly like, I'll bet some angles late. I'll bet some angles early, but you know, these are kind of the south. Yeah. I look, there's a couple of, and each year, which is obviously the gold standard, they don't really drop all their projections to five o'clock. But I look at a couple of sites that are not as good. I would say the TTR, but they're up in the morning. So, you know, the more useful if you try to bet in the morning, and I kind of use their minute projections as a good baseline. Could obviously adjust that if something doesn't seem right to me. Use that sort of as a decent minute projection and then I mean, I want to go into ton of detail, but I've always been pretty good. One thing my partner built for me, which now is, you know, you can just, you know, look up pretty easily with, you know, it's even simple stuff like the stats moves. But many years ago, he built like a database that you could just track their stats when like, when other players did or didn't play. Like that's, I was just always kind of good at figuring out like, this player is really like, this player being out should have a big impact on this player, but not a big impact on this player. I think this isn't, you, I was just figured like going back to like the, uh, Ox with, uh, when they had like, prime tree young and clinker pala. Like, tree young would be brought out and clinker pala's points would bump up, and he was probably actually going to score less because all of his points are coming from like, labs, put backs down. No one's throwing them a lot anymore. So like, yeah, like, of course, the average Hawks players points should go up, but he's actually should go down. And I could just like figure that out from just sort of knowing what I guess they would say. So, uh, and then a lot of lines would just open, um, Lee since he biased would just be skewed too much. You know, a player would just be like, okay, system, I don't think anything's really fundamentally changed. They've just been running hot for a couple of games. That point projections, you know, the point totals two points too high. And it just, you know, some people listening to this now, it might seem like difficult, but it just used to be a lot. So you even going back into legalization, when legalization hit, it was, I felt very well prepared because I was, I was doing well, not amazing when the legalization. And then all of a sudden, it was just like, well, what if you could just take the same skills you had, but bet way more money and have even way more like way more things you could bet on too. And some and a lot of these like so the first year, um, that I was really up on legals, at these two seasons accounts, they would take one K for the entire season, betting overnight, spending 60 bets a day, they didn't care. And you could, they would have, they would have deals, in turnovers and blocks on every single player, like nine players in a game. And nobody would even bet this stuff. Right? So you could log in 30, even if like you could bet you could log in 30 minutes before a game and there would just be some random turnover bet. There was like 40 cents different than I made it and you could just bet it for a K right before the game started. Like it was just like incredible. And it just, I was sort of very lucky to have this skill. And then all of a sudden, it's like, what do you want to just bet way more money? But you're already winning at it's like, I would long to do that. Yes, the good old days of, uh, of early legalization, I think it's a continual reminder that when things are new to even if it's not up your alley, which in this case, it worked out for you. It was like up your alley of things you are already doing. Um, but it's always worth, we're checking out. Um, I'm curious like on, on the sort of betting, using intuition and just ball knowledge, as you talked about it, like if if you were to try and, you know, teach me how to, how to do this, is the way to sort of think about this is to identify like, I guess, because I'm thinking about this two ways. One, I'm sort of like going through and sort of mentally pricing each thing, like going through like a whole board and pricing thing. Or is it more about like sort of knowing heuristics to limit the board or look for for a subset of spots and then and then doing more work on that. I'm just curious like how, how the, you know, not specific examples, but like the best way to think through, um, finding good bets when you don't have, you know, code or model telling you that, that these are the good bets. Um, but why would just kind of, I would just pick a game and I would, depending on the year, I would kind of change in the outs, but say that that one year, there's incredible Caesar's accounts, I would just pick a load up a game and I would just look at all the Caesar's prices and I would just kind of, I don't know, maybe taking 30 minutes to 45 minutes would ever go through one game and I would, I'm sure I would miss as many played those making, I'm sure I'd miss some because I would just kind of go quick and I would just kind of stand out like, okay, let's look at this for an extra minute. Okay, pass anyway, let's look at this for an extra minute. Bad, just, you know, scroll through, you know, I don't know, a hundred drops and 45 minutes or something. Sometimes sure I'd have an angle, big okay, tray, youngs out, let's go load up, I think a pillow under his butt. I was not like the bread and butter, it was mostly just like, go to as much as I can as quick as I can. And if I make a bad bet, it's fine. If I miss a bet, it's fine. I'm just, you know, huge fan of gambling with an edge. And one thing we should much can say that it always stuck with me was the is said, the end of your life, your EV should funny much even out. So it just kind of looked at it like my goal is to get as much, you know, XR OI as possible. And it's I'm not, I never had this very different than talk, right? I didn't ever thought of myself as the best or had this drive to be the best. I had to drive to bet as much money as I could on the expectation with us. Can you talk about the change in that mindset? Do you think it was just because you're doing sports now? Or do you think it was just like getting older and like having more like, hey, I have, you know, these things outside of gambling that I want to, you know, have work out for me, family, you know, friends, whatever. And like having money is a nice way to have that be easier. I think it's a few things. I think one, it was paying for at the time for being, you know, kind of having a meteoric rise at 23 and being humbled at 25 is like, you know, maybe takes like a lot of people longer to reach like high and the low of some of that. So I think, um, that kind of you speed ran it. Yeah, I speed ran the like rise and fall and then kind of, you know, was in the valley for a little bit before rising back up. And then you have for sure, like having a family huge like, yeah, I had, you know, my first kid was born like late in 2019. We had, we just bought like a house. I'm in New York, oh, outside of New York now, but I was in San Diego at the time. We just bought like an else in 2019 and you know, put a lot of my money into the house in new mortgage payments, like, you know, good kid. And you know, it just kind of had this mindset like at the end of the day, like, what doesn't matter if I'm the best part better in the world or whatever. For a cast if like, I thought this guy projected to 1.2 assists, but someone I was really knew he projected to 1.1 assists, like, whatever, I'm getting under one and a half assists minus 140. It's a great battle. Like, Jen, jam the bad. You know, move onto the next bad like, it's fine. So I mean, I think it's really point like one of the things I've thought about before was like, you know, you hear all the time this talk. I'm like, this self reflection of like, on gambling Twitter, like, what am I contributing to society as a gambler? I never hear that from like people who have, you know, a family. That's that's very like for sure. You know, so I do think it's helpful to like ground and have other things outside of bedding. And that's why I asked that question early on about when you were when you started to lose your edging poker because I do think that's really hard for a lot of people at different times, especially as you're younger. Like, if if it's if you've wrapped yourself identity up in it, and I think it's it's honestly healthy to go through that at least once, because then the the subsequent times are easier to just say like, that I'm not actually, you know, just a poker player or whatever. And I can find the next thing. So yeah, that all makes sense to me. I am curious. Go ahead. I was going to say real quick. Sometimes actually as my kids got a little bit older, they're six and four now. Sometimes it makes me think a little bit like like my daughter will ask me like, what's your job? Well, I try to like predict what's going to happen. And she's like, well, how's that a job? I don't really know how that's a job, but it's better. You know, we're all contributing to truth in society. I'm a big in society. Close out, you know, I'm not predicting the dance in the Josh show. We'll knock out Jake Pawe. We'll society towards the utopia with that. Correct. I am curious one other question on NBA that I have is I'm curious like you're obviously very aware of the, you know, like the market in the industry now. And there's obviously way more, like you had mentioned, it's way more competitive. There's far more people, companies, etc. with, you know, sim based tools or, or, you know, model based tools. I guess I'm curious how you think of like your edge today with with those. Are you finding opportunities that you think they are overlooking? Do you find that there's, you know, systemic biases that some of those like those tools or group think makes? I'm just curious how you you think of your process juxtaposed against against those today. No, I guess would be my answer. I mean, there's so many people doing it, right? And I'm sure they all have different message. Just even thinking about people who have been on your podcast, right? You have like, you know, get pro and kainz, you got a, you got Calvin, you got Louis, and these just, you know, a handful of people have been on one podcast. There's got to be so many people doing this stuff. So I don't think it's going to be like, they all over value. Yeah. So therefore, I like, you know, I'm going to just fade that. I'm going to just try to get in when the lines are relatively soft. The end of, you know, kind of check my lights, check my COV at the end of the day. And either if there hasn't sort of, if news, if it wasn't a somewhat news based play or news didn't fake against me, you know, for the most part, most stuff's going to have moved my way or maybe sometimes close around what I bet it. I'm going to go the other way. Sometimes sure, if you like to hope something, you know, hoped Anthony Edwards would be out and he wasn't then yeah, not going to see all the, but you're going to get counterbalanced the other times you get into, you know, insane amount of COV. But no, I don't, I'm not really trying to outcompete some of the most sophisticated people. I'm trying to get in good bets early. And then I'm also trying to do one thing. So that first year with those seasons accounts, it was kind of like paradise in a way because there was like no swings. So it's actually a huge regret is that I mean, from this background, you could never parlay drops, a pinnacle, a bookmaker or five dies of a bottle or a PPH is it just like so it almost didn't occur to me. That's the guy on the same game parlay as a scams. I'm just going to straight bet everything. And obviously I've missed a lot of opportunity in doing that. But at the same time, it was just like so easy returning 6, 7% ROI on, you know, 80 bets a day. Like there's no downsminks. You have a bad day at deal, but like it, it was very different then. And now I can not going to have that same kind of value. I'm not kind of the same kind of ROI. I'm spraying the board. So I look very much for certain spots. And then sometimes you, I think you can find like an individual spot and like you could just get down a lot. And it could be like a lot EV in one play. One example I wanted to mention that ended up mostly getting voidered, although I had some legs that stand it but stood but game seven over Orlando Cleveland to play off the go. Jared Allen had been had missed two games with the broken rib. And I was game seven and I didn't know if he was going to play a not and they had priced. They had this product his lines like it was like normal lines like 15 and a half points or whatever. And it was insanity because he could play, he could play, you know, five minutes, 10 minutes, just not be able to go. He could play 25 minutes. Like he was he's a good player, but he's like the fourth best player and a little bit we'd done it with. Mostly they could have just used him as a backup center. And so I had like, I think I had like 50k on same game parlor's fading out. And he ended up not playing. I hit some mobility overs that like I got at a good price that like stood, but most of it got voided. But my projection of what his line should have been that was probably like if he had played, I think I don't think I would have sold that position for 50k. I think it was like 100% or a while. Oh, and it's like how many bets do I have to put in at a 3% or a while at 1k or 2k, you know, like and you could find one spot like that that just is completely off the wall in my mind. It's like, yeah, you're gonna have some ups and downs, of course. You know, the EV ads up and evens out. Sometimes I've gone my way, sometimes they haven't, sometimes they get voided, but I think it's so hard to buy into the fact that like, I'm just going to be around hunting for these big spots. And like some days like, there'll be nothing good. But like, there's going to be so many more of these. Like I think just the anxiety of like not having something that like quote unquote keeps the lights on that you can bet every day. Like for me, probably made me like miss value in like hunting big spots that someone like like a maple motive found a bunch more of. Yeah, so I'm in between. I'm kind of in the streets as betting NBA pops every day, but then it's like, I'm also kind of have my eye out for like, if I find one spot that seems off, let's try to bet way, this, you know, all flop and try to bet way, you know, message flop and tell you, I'm trying to bet way more money than I'm going to bet on my normal plan. That's like, I mean, who knows? Joe Allen sort of played. He could have played 33 minutes. He could have lost all my bets, but when did he break his rib in this scenario? Believe it in game four. And then he sat game five and six. Oh, so he broke it like three days before this game. Yeah. And they were trying to get him to take a quarter zone shot and play and he didn't want to play. He's not like it's done of in Mitchell. Like they could have literally played him 15 minutes just like spell mobily for stretch it, or they could have intended to play him 35 minutes and he could have, you know, taken a shot in the live and come like, and now of course, if the line had been set at 11 and a half points, instead of 15 and a half points, and back then you could bet the all same game partly unders. So I had that kind of just sprayed the board with like some of his regular lines, some of his alls. And yeah, you could like, if they'd set it at 11 and a half lines, look a lot of risk because maybe he plays his usual minutes and you've got it in really bad. But I had this mindset of like, I just couldn't be getting it in more than minus 15% or whatever and I could be getting in some of those bats at plus 100%. If he's if you've got all done does and he's going to play 20 minutes like it's it's just it's so it could be so off from what fair that. Right, it can't be that bad. The most magical words in gambling. Yeah, I'm a big believer in that. Yeah, that if like, there's a lot of times when I think there's going to get uncertain playing spot or so like uncertain playing time, but it's priced at one tail. And you can just use it just so much upside to that especially you could do like all don't does and stuff Certainly, you know now these days you can Like that's San Bernard you don't game games a few days ago Like I did have a little bit of stuff against him But it just wasn't that much upside fading him in my mind because you can't Hell outcomes on the under anymore So kind of does a lot of that edge not completely but So I was gonna say did you have more in props SP? No, I think we could jump to live. Okay. Yeah, because Adam one one thing that when when we were talking which I think is is new between your circles off episode And now is that you started to do a lot more live betting so maybe just you know walk people through When that happened why you made the the transition and kind of you know what? How that's been gone. Oh, yeah So kind of guns but a few different things Got me into that one was getting to know flop and obviously you know He's been tremendously successful doing life and I was like well if I mean if I'm not the smartest guy in the world But a flop can do it like He really takes a flop no one takes a good joke like my opinion Yeah, he catches straight like all his life and his pile of money. He's like yeah, so I come so square But in all seriousness like he's obviously a very smart guy, but I think He what I just talked to him about live and stuff he kind of like I think we think about things very similar ways and Like certainly people with way like I remember If you get it for it was like I think maybe um It was on your podcast talking about building this like super sophisticated live model Yeah, but they see and you have this it's like Well, pinnacle has this tennis bat at this price and the other but this other side hasn't had an arctic pinnacle so well, I just bet this other other side like you know It's like such a low level of sophistication at times, but it's like it doesn't you know again like you know I'm not trying to discover the truth of the line and finally jam in a plusy vbette and then the other impetus to really get into it was I just I just sort of by chance. I was a deno with some people I knew and There's a couple people I didn't know came and they ended up being like a big source of accounts for me Just so this was like probably early last year So it ended up getting accounts that I could more easily use to do live so kind of combination of Well, I really kind of just kind of panting the idea and then getting the outs to do it It's kind of those two things I guess and I mean you someone like pads on obviously much more sophisticated But like he talked about it's just so much variation in the lines So I'm mostly top-downing life. There are certainly spots But more than anything but a couple couple of sports couple spots where sometimes I think you can have an edge much bigger than just top-down But the bread and butter was just And are you doing all sports or are you sticking with NBA? You know what you've you've mostly been betting the past for a while or you sort of open to everything open to I mean if you're doing top-down It doesn't matter any sport is good So unless I'm gonna do some sports more than others just the nature of the sport Sockos a terrible sport the life bit unless you unless you're a court-sider and you know what it was about to happen Then that's a great sport, but it's a kind of the so few action points in the game that it's just not a good sport But I do anything it and this times we're like I'm a big believer that like this kind of a tree that you can Do a lot of stuff at a smaller edge or you can do more or sometimes by following something really closely You can find a big edge, but it's kind of hard to do both So like I'll be top-down and 10 it like a you know tennis. There's like tons of matches going on I'm not really paying attention to any of the matches And you can just kind of look for price discrepancies But then sometimes maybe you're watching one match and someone starts to cramp up before the and they're way behind in the match And you can get them at plus 2000 before the market realizes the other guys cramping up like So you could find an edge way bigger than top-down and a spot like that, but it's like you know You can't I'm not following ten tennis matches So you can it's like if you want to do something in detail You're gonna give up voting if you want to do some but then you're doing volume You never gonna find like a huge sort of mispricing that the market's missing because how would you know? For I'm curious like I'm curious in that circumstance Or Wayne here, I think like cramping up in tennis when we talked about this with Isaac like when he had an opinion in tennis He would kind of just know the baseline and then like he would Then bet off that and you mentioned that as something you know, you were doing pre-market for props like for The stuff that's not top-down you have like this this baseline Like probability for stuff you're doing live and then adjusting to it or is it just like I mean obviously you can't really say It's not so obvious that it's just like Yeah in the so to use some of the stuff in football I wouldn't want to get into Because I think some of it's more like repeatable maybe a little less obvious, but something like in tennis Like It was like a sinner match. He lost last year. I think I had like plus 2000 on like here. He was cramping That was following that and My baseline is pretty much just the live line that I've been following in the match And it's so it's like if if you and you sometimes you can see these swings that like you know a couple games later He might have got without a huge swing in the game state like mathematically He might have gone from plus 2000 to plus 600 Because people have seen it so you can just be you can just kind of see like You can just kind of see like it can't be that but that's a real philosophy of mine. It can't be that bad It's like okay, but it's a plus 2000 and he's not really gonna clamp up and he's fine Then okay, it should have been plus you know 2600 and okay, I got it a little bad But you know maybe he's cramping up and it's said it in plus 300 or 500 or 600 It's like you got it in a lot better than I got it in bad in the inverse. So It's not that I have like my own fighting, but I can just see what the line was and Know that there's more upside than downside I love how on this show tennis always becomes the default sport we talked about because nobody Neither of us I just want to say like I've had tennis betters in my DMs before I do apologize if if that's the sport we're always talking about It's just like our default. Yeah, but we can't be leaking. Yeah, exactly. We're just like self I mean For what it's worth like we you know me and John know nothing about tennis So I hope we're not you know blowing up any spots But I just think it's always funny how we always we always go to a tennis example But maybe a couple other questions on live before we sort of zoom out and talk about just Gambling in your your career because one of the things I do want to talk about is you've been gambling like longer than a lot of people and have Have gone through different areas, which I think is really interesting. So I want to talk about that But maybe a couple other on on live betting So these days do you primarily see live as like your primary way to to make money gambling? Well, you know, they're good for just projecting out obviously it's hard to project out more than a couple of years But if we project out next couple of years Do you see that as your your primary earn and if so I'm curious how How like and I maybe we'll get into this in some of the questions like how the rise of of some of these prediction markets in exchanges have Have changed that or made that more enticing to you at all just because those are obviously very live centric You know currently so curious your thoughts on that of the next couple years Right now I think it's probably somewhat I think so for really like it was exclusively past for many years really And last year was maybe closer to a 50/50 split I wouldn't be surprised if live is more far is a bigger part of my earn even in the coming years You know hard to say But even come down to just how I wanted certain spots like if another Jared Allen spot comes up or whatever I'm like you know, could be a better couple of those spots go your way first couple of spots don't good Yeah, versus live I tend to have Mala sizing. I don't tend to really have these asymmetric spot and get like all the line is so off and I can bet so much money on it Live is probably a steadier income and pops is like kind of steady growth. I'm like The rest on the regular stuff But I wouldn't be surprised if it became a larger part of what I do. I definitely look at it as kind of co Like I try to sort of bet pops in the morning and do some others You know go to the gym do other stuff in the afternoon and then do some of the on some some live betting a lot of your ball Actually in the afternoon, but then go to the you know just kind of live but some at night So just kind of wait us split up And it's nice to because um lives it became It became could kind of just like very right like when I was sort of at like the Like a peak with pops a few years back It was really a That was working with a lot of partners and it just kind of became like very demanding like a job Like I may take a day off gonna like eight people messaging me like why aren't you like you know where the best of the hey like So I still what I've really tried to scale back to some of my like long term partners who I've had for a long time and Just you know And then live it's nice. It's more kind of more like poker. Like you just load up and back when you want to bet. It's not like, you know, people are sort of like depending on you or. And there's definitely times that like, you know, couple people like this very job was just like moving my props and, you know, which was good because like when it was going, you know, going really well, but it's kind of a lot to keep that up. And you know, one a little more freedom to, you know, to their offer. Well, that's one thing that really appealed to me with life too. And then also just the top down aspect. But like it's kind of harder. If your edge is like, I think off pinnacle, it's kind of hard to lose your edge. And not explicitly pinnacle is a little different than that, but you know what I'm saying. As I say, life is kind of like you sit down. It's, you know, it's 2010. You have your, your Red Bull, you log into to poker stars, you load up the tables and you say, all right, let's rock. I feel like that except way less personal. Cause it's like, oh, I did a Limpiacos. I thought I thought they were going to cover my, I'm going to say it in half. It's been another side. I'm not as kind of a half. Which I think that is actually kind of, as I've gotten older, I kind of like that. It kind of like, oh, I lost. That's fine. That wasn't, wasn't my bed anyway. You know, I just like. Yeah, you just blame pinnacle. Oh, you're technically idiots. Yeah, that's gonna go trade us a terrible. What are they doing over there? I'm curious. Obviously we have to ask about prediction markets on the show. Like have you been dipping your toe in there? I mean, you know, call she certainly with no delay. Feels like it could. It's a decent spot sometimes live, but I don't know. I did my toe. It's not my five. I try to betting into softer books for the most part. Yeah, no delay could be good, but I'm not really. I don't have a faster data source than probably the market makers on the couch. So I'm not really getting an edge from that. But it's actually could do worse. So yeah, it could be probably the fastest update there for us. So like it's kind of just like. So then and you got to know the intricacies of each sport. So it's nice thing like basketball is kind of hard because like when it's going on live, like you never, if you try to get a bet and you never really know if there's going to be a basket like right after you can just be betting only timeouts. But tennis like a point resolves or like baseball pitch resolves, you probably got like 20 seconds to the next one. So you kind of get to each sport has its own intricacies and you kind of. But yeah, I bet I bet on this. So I'm definitely I would say under utilizing them maybe, but the same time kind of successful and like the site's amusing stuff. I was going to say it could be a good like Zeg when people are sagging. Yeah, that's people on that. That's people on the other side. PM's, you know, like you know, why when you can just play poker with four fish, you know, or exactly. Yeah, I don't need to be the best poker player. I have to 500 people without it on Facebook and how was how is life for accounts? Have you found. So that's another one of the benefits is that it's, you know, it's kind of taught me this. It's they like lies in a lot of ways because one is definitely not possible to tell somebody's winning outside of the results, but it's much more difficult than okay, he bet when you go there under the bounds and 9 a.m. and I moved to rebound by seven p.m. So like it's all right. Like the J example little bit like, but I'm and then also it's like a pretty high horse. So if you are just spewing into it, then like, you know, they got a huge edge on you. So like, it's pretty good for a cancelling. You lose them, but I some. I would say one of the better ways to take like pretty good chunk out of an account. Certainly I'm sure there's more sophisticated even better ways for what I'm doing. It's definitely the better ones. Yeah, makes sense. And it's something we talked about that a lot of the most basic tools that that Swords books have at their disposal's live sort of breaks that if you're just thinking about like closing line value and some of that stuff, it's complicated with live to evaluate like how how a better is actually running on that stuff. Let's jump to to the gambling as a career and the what I had brought up earlier about about you doing this for a long time. So, you know, GP gave his hot take not too long ago about, you know, aging curve in gambling. You've been doing this through different areas like it's it's somewhat rare for me to see people who've had success. Usually they find success in one thing. They ride that out and they ride it out probably even longer than it should be. And they don't they don't jump to new things. They don't reinvent themselves and like sort of change with the changing market. So I'm curious how what skills are like what traits do you think you have that have allowed you to gamble successfully at a bunch of different ways for a long time? Good question. I was actually just kind of talking about my wife was actually just kind of asking me that the other day. He was saying like I mentioned that sound very good at math and I was like, I think I'm not very good at math at all. And she's like, well, then how do you win? So I was like, that's a good question. I think I also used this word a lot, but I guess I would just kind of say combination of intuition of knowing what's relevant in different markets and then also a willingness to jump a willingness to sort of do where I to go where I think I have the edge. So I've definitely moved around from poker and then into different a lot of different types of bets, but it's just I guess I don't know how to like exactly define it, but because I'll see like a lot of the self-described capers who like we give our props on Twitter. And a lot of them will be honest, their process almost didn't seem that different than mine, but they were just doing it really badly. So they would say like, okay, I'm betting Yokech under when three pounds of Cess because centers have gone under like 49 out of 50 against this team. And it's like, well, they're kind of a kind of status that like, of course Nick Richards didn't go over like 50 points, we've had the sense like, you know, but I can just kind of figure out what was relevant and what wasn't. And I don't know what like why that is necessarily, but I've got to, you know, I guess it goes back to poker too. I could just kind of figure out how to play. And then much like poker, I've seen people coming in who I had a more sophisticated level and kind of figure out how to quantify the what I could intuit better than I could intuit it, but you know, when it works, it works. And then you just have to kind of appreciate when it stops working. And the difference I guess in sports too is that like there's always softer markets to attack like in the poker. If the guy sitting the table is good, then like he's good. You can't really like do something else, but in sports, you could just bet earlier on the day. The other thing that I was just going to say, the other thing that's come through in the interview that I just want to call out is like one of the things that that I've observed is your humility and like the ability to be humble and you're the fact that you, you did come to sort of that realization with poker early. Like I do think that is a, you know, I'm speaking to, you know, my own opinion here. I think that's like a major very important thing. If you want to do this for a long time is you have to have that humility and like quit things. And you know, just in talking to you that's come across. And you know, like I said, it's not, when we have the people, when we announce, you know, people on the podcast, everybody, you know, doesn't, doesn't, you know, kindness and sort of humility and being the goat are not usually the things that people are asking about. So I just wanted to call that out because I think that is an extremely important thing. And that's why I wanted to, you know, touch on that. I guess, but I think that that's probably another skill that maybe you don't recognize yourself, but you likely do have. Absolutely. Yeah. And I'm, it's good. So like I, go down that I do try to just be like, you know, nice for the sake of being nice, but then also stuff can, it can come back to you sometimes if you just like, so like the way I met Chris actually was, years back when he was newer in the space, like Kirk Evans used to DM me about like, hey, do you think this pops good? Hey, do you think this pops good? And I was like, and I could very quickly tell he was very sharp, like almost everything. He said, do you think this is good? I was almost, yes, I do think it's good. But you know, it's like I know him pretty well. And then I met Chris through him. I ended up meeting, you know, meeting these people. I'm getting the accounts from the dinner with Chris and some other people. You know, you had Isaac on another episode who worked for me for a year. And like I met him through this, you know, kind of stuff. So I'll just like, so like, I don't necessarily, I don't, I'm not trying to be nice to people. It didn't help necessarily getting something back, but I think that's like definitely a lesson that if like, if you, if you're helpful to people, sometimes like, you know, it works out for you as well. Like even if that's not, I wouldn't. And I think if you try to do it just for that, maybe it works a little less well. You go, this guy has nothing to offer me. So I'm not gonna, you know, not gonna talk to him or whatever, like, maybe it's like, you're less likely to find stuff, but I think that definitely, you know, it helps. Like if it's sports is very different than poker. There's a lot of networking, a lot of like, you can meet somebody and then you can end up making a lot of money because you rest somebody. like there's this kind of random that you met them and it would be very much changed like you know a lot of the inter-situation or like how you ever to make. Yeah that's a great point. It's not necessarily like in poker I guess you can meet somebody who like you study with and who it's like really opens to your eyes to like a couple things but yeah it's so much more important in sports to have a good social network and it's something that I didn't like in poker I had like my few friends and I didn't really bother to like go outside of them but in sports it's so great to like just meet a bunch of people. One thing I wanted to ask about that I got from your sister so I rewatched your circles off interview and you said you were a philosophy major in college is this true? Yeah I didn't finish but yes I was I think I was one fast away from finishing my major and I put off all the requirements I didn't like and it just gave out. I feel like that's like kind of like like actually spot on for a philosophy major like what you should do you know yeah it isn't actually worth it is it? I learned the philosophy and moved on. Yeah exactly so your philosophy major I think one thing like an SP alluded to this is that it gets talked about in the space a lot but like you know we I think both of us on the show have the opinion like that or I'll speak for myself but I think SP feels this way of like you know I think I'm kind of over like beating yourself up about being a gambler like what do I contribute to society? Like I thought that a lot like when I was like 22 and playing poker now that I'm like you know in my 30s and like married and kind of just want to you know I have a solid life like I don't really think about that anymore but how do you how do you see gambling like as a feeling career as someone who's like a thoughtful guy you know who has a family and everything like do you think about that now? Did you used to think about that? Yeah so I would say it was a little bit of a curve maybe like I used to think about it maybe when I was younger and then I was kind of like whatever I'm doing well for myself let's get it off now maybe it's come back around a little bit having kids and kind of thinking just kind of like part of me be like I wanted to like I'm a firefighter you know it's not a nice to be able to just say like you know what's your dad job like but at the same time yeah like I'm not you know I've run so good in life like so good like ridiculous like I'm not you know it never wants to have like I don't know I would have been the carburetor or something like you know I don't I don't know what I would have done like I never really want to have a corporate job I didn't take school that seriously to be able to sort of just be as successful as I have been my wife she used to be a good teacher and then a school principal she just stays home with the kids now you know it's not to worry like just to kind of be able to have all that like it's if I send my life a lot of times it wouldn't have happened a lot so I'm very grateful for that and very like maybe you know I guess they don't find the actual gambling as fulfilling as like you still but I've got like enough perspective to see that like at the end of the day like okay so like you don't love every every minute of your job like you know that's life that's fine I like it probably more than most people like their job and I have a lot more flexibility than most people have their job and I like aspects of it for sure you know do get a little sick of child project if somebody's gonna get you know 8.2 rebounds or 8.6 rebounds like when you're in that 15 years you know it's a little less fun than it used to be maybe but what are we here what a weird world we all live in yeah I mean I I resonate with a lot of that I mean I made like this sort of a half joke earlier but to me it's just hard like if if you're self-worth and like your fulfillment in life is tied to your job whatever it is whether it's gambling or otherwise it's just gonna be hard that that's just a hard thing for that to provide and so I don't even think like gamblers are unique in this regard you know I think it needs to be other stuff but you know that's my opinion so that's why I don't like how many jobs like how many jobs and in of themselves are like fulfilling it's funny to be when the gamblers are like I'm not contributing to society like like they think everybody else who has a job feels like they're like you know helping the universe like no that's what it's true you're trying to like jobs where I'm sure you feel that way like you know teacher you know firefighter and whatnot but that's like a small subset of the yeah I think I'm a structured worker that's right that's right that's we're still looking for a risk of ruin scoops you guys that's never gonna talk that it's kind of crazy like like yeah that basically kind of was who asked me to start talking about that and they went to a different podcast actually I was stating terrible time um basically there was a risk of ruin they did they did justice you can't you can't you can't you can't argue with that um yeah I'm trying to oh yeah I wanted to get back to shiny objects syndrome because sometimes I'm gonna ask you and poker it's kind of like people outside of poker might not know this but the heads up singles is very niche and I'd say like most people in poker want to either like play mtts or cash um but how did you stick with one thing that was like clearly your bread and butter without these I found myself like right when I'd be like okay like now I can win like 50 chips of EV and spin so now I'm gonna learn PLO like it's like doing such stupid things like how did you battle that and like how do you continue to battle that in in gambling I find that to be one of the hardest things so okay I had some of it and I guess it worked out a little bit because like when asked when a heads up sitting goes kind of went south I actually had a really good year in mtts and triple draw which I just was like I'd have been saying I was like well I mean I guess I could just figure out how to play heads up triple draws well I could so um but then in sports I guess the answer is I was in the wilderness for a long time and I did have shiny object I was like just kind of hopping around for a lot of years and then I just kind of found what I was most successful with um I still that was actually kind of ended up being spice I'm still a very good tone with my old partner um actually we actually get together like I move a little bit of stuff for him um like some of his football stuff and uh and we actually always like super balls kind of like a tradition we always sort of get together and like you know just try to bet as much as we can on as many bests as we can for the super ball for that but sort of the ended up splitting as a four time partners because I was like you know I've decided that like my best path is to like wake up every day and look at NBA five for eight hours and he was like I hate waking up and looking at NBA five for eight hours so I just kind of like I just kind of did have shiny objects syndrome for a long time to I found something and then it almost was a little bit of a relief psychologically to not be doing as well and to sort of get into life and to feel like I have a little more freedom because really for like a four four and a half year period like it felt like well a five go out to dinner that's like you know that was it that's like it's gonna be a $200 dinner because I could have just bad thoughts during my dinner like it's almost a little bit of a relief to be sometimes like okay I can still make money but the opportunity cost is like not as much because it's like it just it felt like and I lived with poker I was gonna say yeah that's like I think we had we had we had very young kids and you know my wife really did not I mean I was always around and tried too much like can but like my wife really did a lot so the first couple years and because I was like listen I can make a lot of money and in a few years I'm gonna be able to make as much money so like I just need to do this now so I would you know go about it one a.m. having been everything overnight I could wake up and you know it a.m. and just I'd bend again like no just like it I'd been gambling long enough to know what I'd found kind of I'm curious how you how you've made that that part work I think you gave a little glimpse into it but um like how you've made being a a family man you mentioned you know wife kids now um but how how you've actually made that work over over time and balanced it through through all the gambling you've done what um so it's been it's been sorry my wife was just texting speak um but it's uh it's been difficult at times but at the same time I'm home every you know I'm home every day so like I try to think about it like people who if you're like kind of in a if you say like looking like like uh kids trans parents most of them are too working you know parents they're in daycare or um you know after school they're having an Annie so yeah times like I do give up some time of course but like you know it's kind of counterbalanced in part because like you know my wife is a lot more time and then in part to come home so it's flexible so it's like yeah I'm working a time but like I can stop and have a good day. with them I can stop and you know I can say okay today I'm gonna just take the day off I'm not gonna go do this so I'm gonna take half the day off I'm gonna go do this so I can put them to bad so as much as I've worked over the like kind of a five-year period it's like I still had that flexibility and if you think about not that I would have been able to get any of these jobs but the kind of jobs that like would have a you know high income like you know you're part of a law firm or something it's like it's probably gonna be more demanding than this but so in a lot of ways like you have trade-offs but you know it's gonna be life and anything's gonna have trade-offs and think I think I've been able to probably deal for a good balance and I don't really go out of time with friends which is something I just sort of miss from you know to be kids sometimes but like you know it's kind of part of the way to balance it too is that you're sort of a ties family when you're not working you know it's everything's a trade-off in life so that's not no short effort on there how to I think it was on Rufus's party was like one thing like that's really under value as people like learning how to close doors and like sometimes yeah it's a trade-off you have to say like hey maybe I won't go out with my friends every time but I get to like be with my family and do a job that gives you flexibility or whatnot you can't you can't you can't you can't what you want you can't really have it all that's a little bit of a myth I think you know there's only so many hours in a day and two of them use after spent listening to this podcast so he would listen to this podcast another another five and a half of sleeping so it's brutal uh three hit the questions I think I think we can hit the questions okay so we got one from prop dude very yeah shout out prop dude very funny twitter account who has been the most tilting NBA player to bet props on this season this season no one jumps out and I guess I'll say out of bio but I'll gonna I'll amend the question a little bit and say easily lifetime my nervousness is honest he's gotten me so many ways like when he's when his knee went sideways in the conference finals I like loaded up as much as I could on sons to win the uh when the title he like he was like Wolverine and drops 50 to close out the sons like there's another time someone who'd been somewhat reliable in the past told me that he thought Janus was gonna be out when Donus was listed as probable and I was like again how bad could it be I bet like every box player I could over everything Janus of course plays and scores like 55 points and everyone else goes under every bed like and I still like I've never once guessed if he's gonna play in a correct way so he's he's he's a better answer than uh bam it's kind of got better frustrated couple of spots blow it up some priorities and stuff but it it doesn't Janus is like my my lifetime nervousness for sure okay I yeah I was trying to think like Janus is good because he's like so prevalent you know I thought it was gonna be like a more obscure player honestly like I've never got to see it in him never hit the end or him out it's like it's such a thing and I've like never been right they can be they feel like I've been right a lot like in my life it honestly feel like I've just never been right and that the finals one was the most memorable and I was watching the finals with my mother when I was there who's Greek and she was just like going crazy rooting for Janus and like I'm saying Jake out of camp slapping and I'm just sitting there just like this was this love for me I didn't want to say anything just like you're saying somebody's just like enjoying the game like very passionate just like sports I get another assist is like so tilted by someone who's just innocently rooting for the underdog when you have like far too much on the opposite out she doesn't even like sports but she just likes the yada's because he's Greek and just like this is like the most still thing I've liked situation I can think of a distinct couple situations I'm sure we had those so that's honestly a good topic we could tell some stories about that but let's go on to the next one from Gavin convinced me that prop CLV matters I know you talked about this earlier that that you you know you're betting earlier and looking at this I've heard this sort of bandied about both ways on in terms of like you know the efficiency of these markets but I'm curious like you're take on it specifically for NBA prop size too so I think just over the years it's grown to be a pretty major market with a lot of smart people working on it and CLV I mean it sounds like obvious but CLV matters for the same reason it matters in any kind of major markets and I saw this nothing stems from a call please exchange in a different thread when he said like I said it matters and he said like well like you can still beat stuff at close and I would agree with that I mean there's hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of bets you know up listed at close this is going to be late news there's going to be stuff to get so overlooked so it's not that every bet is efficient to close but if there's many smart people running large operations trying to bet fobs and they move the lines then I mean you know it matters for the same reason matters and everything else and sure even I never tracked this I was never good with records but I'm sure even when I was betting close to post I'm sure the subset of stuff that I bet earlier on the day even back in say 2021 got CLV I'm sure that was like my stronger stuff outside of certain markets like just nobody bet turnovers or like the fact that got no CLV didn't matter because nobody else bettered but yeah if I bet you know some points bet it they am I'm sure the stuff the close had to happen but I guess yeah so I don't know if you you've like interactive Gavin or not but I've chat with him on off for a while now he's a I think he's mainly a baseball better so I don't know like if because you know I was thinking about it when you were saying like even the people that I've been on this podcast like think of all the people who are like serious professional bettors that bet like specifically MBA props like on this podcast we had a cash cow then maple obviously Louis now add like half of the podcast has just been MBA probably yeah shipper with Kane they you know they're pretty up I mean this is yeah it's like how ETR has coming out people are filtering ETR like you know that's not I think ETR I think if you bet what ETR's projections at 5 PM they'd win think if you bet them at 6 PM you're probably not going to win because smarter people have filtered out what's you know what's good but there's just so much out there there's pop off the screens that used to be an advantage of mine it kind of just sits on the sides now it's like nobody can just see that better ever is awesome let off without even have an opinion like it's just yeah it how could it not matter I guess in so many people doing it money to be made doing it yeah it makes total sense to me um next one from Gambarly um how do you I know we talked about this a little bit already so maybe we covered this one but anything else you want to say on how you shut off from work and have good work life balance um I guess I'll just kind of add to that that it's hard and it's part of me although I like gambling part of me would like to not gamble anymore because I feel like it just is always kind of in the back of my mind like I'm I wait how my bet's doing today what did I miss today and the part of me fantasizes about you know having more money than I did and just being like well who guess I don't need to worry about how many rebounds those guys gonna get today and then really just kind of I think it takes I guess a lot of jobs you could say this about but it makes it harder to be present sometimes and I try my best but yeah it's uh it's hard sometimes for sure and uh you know try to just you know try to not be on your phone as much when you know you can stop putting it you know you're with your kids but yeah it's kind of like the pouring your back of your mind like yeah just just loaded up see if Donald and Michelle got that last we've earned a lot like even though it doesn't matter you know at the end of the day like you've got to gather a lot but one thing from your circus off interview I had to ask about that this reminded me of do you still have your workstation like in the middle of a shared space I think you'd yes I mean I don't know if that was going to be like your hot take or whatever but that's that's that's insane yeah I'm saying and yeah I still do yes okay so yeah he has no split it's his work his work life is is is is you know home life so you know they're saying to there there you go yeah it's they're one yeah yeah perfectly one the ball you knew to have the ball get the have no mind yeah um yeah I would just say like I really resonate with with what you just said like as much as you can do the things of like oh I'm gonna leave my phone in this room okay we're going to go out to dinner like all of this something about gambling like the yeah like you said just scratches in the back of your mind like how did this do you know something's an action oh I wonder like what this opened at um you mean guys you're the great um great quote about Parker so when I was young I I thought the rich way out at the table was the idiot but now I realize I'm the idiot like 100% that's just like how do you ask yeah I'm like in drinking beer and you're there with your ducca water like I wasn't a live player but on the way out of bedbashed a few years back I went to the wind before my flight played for about five hours and I was definitely a huge dog of that table was like five years ago I've had all the wigs with the huge vats of water. And I was the complainant about traffic on the strip. And I was just like, okay, I'm the fish here, but I'm doing okay in life. (laughing) - Absolutely. Dude, nothing, honestly going at that bash, I did the same thing. I went and played some five, 10, the Bologi I think. Yeah, maybe the Aria briefly. And I was like, wow, this is so much fun. Like, I don't think of a funk. I'm not terrible, but I'm just like, literally do not care if you fold this river. (laughing) It's like something. - Oh, I got it. - It's fine. - Right, right. - Yeah, you're so right about that. I used to, yeah, you're like, wow, this guy sucks at poker. And you're like, maybe he sucks at poker because he's made $100 million in his like a regional concrete business. (laughing) - Like, why would he choose to be good at poker? - On the fashion, he's the concrete magnet. And so it goes. - Exactly. - Yeah, no, man, that's such a-- - Breaking news gambling is fun. Yeah, yeah, who would have thought it? - Yeah, gambling is fun. That's another thing we believe in. - You can pass or take this one however you want. We actually didn't, we didn't discuss this before, but from, I can never remember. - You can just name it. - The change is not. - Broner, it's Broner like, boner, that's a rift. - Okay, Broner from Broner. If you could put one winning sports better on a spaceship to be fired into space and never return, who would it be? Side note, if you do not pick one, you have to go so you can't chicken out. You know, we generally avoid the drama. We love all members of gambling Twitter, but do you have anyone you want to fire off in this spaceship? - Oh, I know Broner a little bit. I like Broner, he was shit star. He asked this very specifically, like, Porter, BA analytics has the, like, we used to be used to move a little bit from the Super Bowl. I don't know, I shared that Jared Allen had to admit him for like, just to be nice already had enough down, but whatever he decided to do, and like me at some point. So he started some shit with me on Twitter. He was currently blocked because I don't really need that. But he asked me that question, so I would save Porter, but I'm not sending anyone to space, but that was, you know, I don't really have any beef with Porter outside of whatever beef he has with me, but that was, that was like a very, he was, that was a bad question. - Okay. - I think like I was, and then Flop tried to do this not well to try to do that. - I didn't need to try that. - So I'm not sending anyone to space, but that's what I'm talking about. - You can just send Sean Perry and everybody will be there. - I mean, it's, it's, it's a winning sports better, and I don't want to get, I don't want to get to the mood, but I don't want to get sued, but perhaps I'm Perry's not a winning sports better. - Okay, yeah, I don't know. - That's hard, okay. - I'll stay out of that one, but I'll let Benson fight that battle. - That's been, that's been good content if anyways. - Yeah, that's, that's kind of brought, yeah. I've, I've enjoyed Benson's responses to Sean Perry, so shout out Jeff. - All right, let's get back to the regularly scheduled programming. This one from Analysis by Parallysis. How different is the market for NBA prop betting this season compared to the previous seasons? And then I'll just ask both, and you can answer them together one by one however you want. And the second question was, how do you envision the prop betting landscape NBA specifically in five to 10 years? - Oh, it's very, I mean, from last season, it's a difference, but it's been gradual. I mean, a few years back, you really used to be able to bet overnight, which is a lot, there used to be way more props, like, you know, under half a steel on a backup center, there's all kinds of stuff that wasn't offered. But it's been a gradual change. A year or two ago, there was just some very obvious same game parlay glitches where like, let's say it because it's like, it's fixed, but like, used to be to say, take like a congrew and Copella, Copella's been a big topic on this conversation, but they used to basically share 48 minutes of center if the game was close. Like, you could just bet like, Copella under rebounds and a congrew over rebounds and they would pay you over fair for reasons might cannot begin to imagine. A lot of that stuff is just gone. So it's just getting harder and harder for sure. I used to think back like, why would they offer, you know, under half a turnover on this like, backups like small forward and then, you know, under half a turnover on this backup small forward. So it's been kind of, like anybody who books on an exchange, I'm sure you see like the flow is all over as it's all star players. It's like, it became, it was kind of obvious to me before west of the books, but they should kind of hate to be right sometimes, but that's the same. It's been happening over time compared to a season ago. It's not wildly defense, but it's compared, you know, so it happens gradually and then noticeably. Bandole used to take really big limits, you know, you should rush like, and they used to let you battle. Like, okay, we'll cut you to 40% in that you battle for a while. Now it's like, you made two props, you're a 10% like, a lot of change. It's kind of no huge single revelation, but just sort of all the ways that was trying to limit people are like, what wax only that they've been doing, they've kind of figured out for themselves. And have five to 10 years. I think there's always gonna be a market for it. I think it's very interesting to people, but at the same time, I think it's gonna be just probably like lots of liquidity, but more focused in certain markets. Like if you want a lot of money on Luke Adonch's points, that's gonna be a thing. If you want us, you know, make your living betting under one or the half of it. It's gonna be a lot tougher than it used to be. - Yeah, you said the thing about exchanges. The fight leg is so funny. I was talking to my partners about this because Carl she had just put in up like some new golf markets. Like some of them were like top 10, top 20. And so I don't know, we just like kind of without thinking too much, you know, toss our numbers in there. And then you kind of see, you're like, oh wow, like nobody's betting these on Monday. Like one person is bet like a significant amount on something. And then we were just like, wow, I must have just stood out like a sore thumb and we were just jamming like top 20 is unfantible. Like, yeah. - I was like, I used to think like, wow, I'm so stupid. - I used to think to myself too, like wow, how do they know to ban me after like one bet. Like when you bet like an overnight toss, like a significant, so like it, ah. - You really don't realize like how little people that recreationally until like, - We had two minutes before the game. I'm not even talking like eight hours before the game. It's like 20 minutes before the game. So yeah, it is something, you know, I guess that's one of the benefits of being on the other side that we get without actually working as a trader these days. Let's go to a question that is relevant for your namesake. The people loved our pet tips, or at least, you know, GP's pet tip on how to prime a cat. This is from Thon and his language, which is hilarious. So, you are a Beagle bet. I just assume you have, however, I've had pets at some time. Do you have any good pet tips? - Yeah, we have in two dogs. And people actually die in last year. We've got another Beagle. And then we have another hound. Good pet tips. I like what you said, I definitely have, you know, losing a dog last year, definitely, you know, agree with you about like appreciate them even when they're being difficult. Like my new Beagle is pain in the ass, but you know, one day he won't be here. So I'll definitely appreciate that. And then, I guess the other one is the, yeah, just try to really, really enjoy it. So I had a dog as a kid and sometimes I felt like, I love them, but sometimes I felt like I can't control, like I have to feed him, I have to walk him. And I just was like, kind of growing up, I really just sort of try to think like, oh, like this is like, gonna take him to the park, like this is like, you know, a really fun part of my day. It's not like a chore to do this. I know my son's kind of obvious, but it's like, I've just been a little more intentional instead of how you appreciate them. I don't really have a, I think that's, I like it. I'm not a good, I'm not a good dog. I'm terribly trained. And so I have a lot of like, I don't have a lot of my son like the technical side of things. Yeah, I kind of, I mean, I think, you know, I don't, I disagree with you, TIP as like, you know, playing with my cat, and my cat really likes to play. And like sometimes you're just like, oh man, I just want to like sit down or whatever. Sometimes you do, but like, when you're, when I'm playing with her, I'm like, always remember like, oh, this is really fun for her. Like this is kind of like one of the highlights of her day too. So you kind of get that enjoyment of like, you know, your dogs at the park, wow, what a great, what a great time for your dog. Like your dog's hump to be there. Yeah, exactly. You can take some enjoyment of that. But I should with kids sometimes it's a little like, you know, you're done with the kids, then like you sit down and your dog can like smell it like, oh, like I've got some talking to how. But yeah, but yeah, you'll, you'll miss them when they're gone. So just try to, try to enjoy it. I love the new pet corner of the show. (laughing) Gotta become pet influencers. Let's go do, let's go back to a sports betting one from Casey Young. How long before books take player prop unders away and just have juiced overs and when it happens, will that be the end of prop betting? So a couple of assumptions in there, but I'm curious like your take on maybe that show. or the broader negative press and direction that some of gambling has gotten over the past year or so. I like that case, he's like, this is definitely gonna fuck off. (laughing) - Yeah, so I think a lot of people who aren't super on the pop streets assume that the menu's been caught in large part because of the negative press on the scandal. And I can't say why it's been caught, but I suspect it's been caught because they were like vulnerable to alt-unders and fish don't bet-unders anyway. Well, I kinda suspect the negative press isn't the primary driver of it as much as just like books figuring out whether we only book over and stuff like what's still got tons of action. And then like we'll be less vulnerable. I do think exchanges will keep unders more alive. It would be competitive, but I think if people can market make and put up two-way prices, there's gonna be less incentive to, there's gonna be more need to kinda keep it two-way. But yeah, I think it's gonna, I think the menus you used to see and the kind of derivatives you used to see, like it just didn't make sense, it just didn't make sense for the books to really offer them. It was sorta like, they didn't think of it as like a currency, but it kinda was in a way. Like they really just didn't need to do that. I mean, I can't really predict the future who knows if you know what'll even happen to exchanges in a few years, but I certainly think as long as they are, as they're big, there's gonna be a lot of two-way action, but it's just gonna be a lot sharper and fought over a smaller number of markets for the majority of the liquidity. - Makes sense. For this next one, I got from Matt in the Twitter DMs. How big of a sample do you need to move on from an angle or subtype of bet? So you have a decent reason to believe it's good or plusy-v, not rock solid. You have mid-to-poor results, through maybe a hundred, 200 bets or whatever you consider reasonable but not huge sample size. Obviously that is a big enough sample of truly no. And so then it goes on to say, for me, it can be hard to be willing to bet, track something into the grave even though you may just be running bad. How do you make these decisions and what factors go into them? I think you, I'm curious your answer on this especially because you talked about some angles and things you were trying that weren't working. Like I think the example you gave was the NBA live thing. So I'm curious how you, you know, this question, but maybe even broader, like how you decide when to quit a specific type of angle market, you know, subgenre of bets, whatever. - Yeah, I think it just varies a lot. I think for kind of like a major, if you're betting states something like, you know, NBA points rebound to success, those kind of bets like early in the day, you know, these like are better indicator than these all so over like the short to medium term. So kind of like if you're getting COV, I'm not worried, like, you know, I'm definitely not on like my best run right now with props but stuff closes pretty well. So it's like, yeah, you know, like obviously, it's not like I'm gonna start, you know, if I have like a bit of a chord streak or something, I'm not gonna stop betting clubs. You might just sort of tighten a little better when you feel like you've really been doing well. You might loosen a little bit. But and then in terms of specific angles, I can't really think of an angle in recent years, this just kind of really right up that like, and I sort of not noticed. I think I feel like I'm pretty, even smaller markets like you can really kind of just use the market to tell like years ago, my partner and I realized that, you know, Hips Runs errors in baseball became way too high because the game had to like say, it used to be like a total of nine, used to correlate on average to maybe like 27 Hips Runs errors. Now it was more like 25, 'cause there's just so many home runs, so many strikeouts. And for like a month, we were just running like 10% ROI, betting like almost every game. And then it's like, you just start to see like a Yankee game who the Yankees were like the best team for this. They were just like open minus 120, close like minus 220. So like even small markets, like people just figure it out. You know, and like, and I can't really think of an angle where I'm like, this is obvious in recent years, stuff when I was younger, but like, stuff that's at least in years from obviously, this is obviously good. I don't like, and then it just, just like, you know, didn't work at all. So I think it's a good question of all, but I think, I think you kind of have to be Bayesian a little bit in it because you just know that a 100, 200, 300, 400 even can be a misleading sample. You just kind of have to stop and think like, does it make sense that it's good? Like, are you seeing, can you explain very clearly why it's good? And if not, and you're also not winning, then you can probably time to give it up. - Yeah, I think that all makes sense. I think the only, we've gotten this type of question before the only other thing I would add is like a bank role, Sim, you know, it can be helpful to visualize it, you know, to say, I think this is obviously you don't know the assumption, but I think this is a 10% edge. Like, what is a reasonable range after 100, 200 bets? Like, if I sim this 100 times, like, am I like, is this a 99% out bad outcome? Is this a, you know, 40th percent out bad outcome? That can give you some comfort, but at the end of the day, I think exactly what you said is right, is, it really depends what you're doing and how confident you are in the edge. Like, you're prior on the, like, there being an edge matters a lot. Like, on this day, it's, it's, if you just think, like, I can cap something well and then you're just not winning. It's like, well, I guess if you only prior was I'm gonna cap and you're like, you know, it's not as strong like, whatever's like, I can very clearly articulate like why this is an edge and this is like, then, yeah. - But if you're making the college basketball games, then, it's probably an edge. - That would have been a bad one. - Don't worry, it's a, be hard to go on a 200 game down swing, you would hope. - You'd be running real bad. - You'd be nuts to go talk to you. - You're still in an app. - Yeah. - Okay, next one, next one you, you talked on some of these so maybe you didn't have anything, any additional ones to add, but I'll just, I'll just ask it. From Dennis Rodman, Jr. What are some stories of beating low liquidity markets? - I wonder if that's, I don't even know if there's a dentist. It's there, I don't know. But the question is, what are some stories of beating low liquidity markets in the early days of betting career? I know you talked about like, you know, tracking the jump ball stuff and other NBA and MLB stuff you were doing early, but any other, you know, stories you wanted to share of low liquidity in early days? - Think, maybe my favorite market ever was, in a call used to have, inning by inning betting, including like hits, like only for the Sunday night baseball game in the playoff game, and I would be like, I would like prep the game, like, and I would have like, in the lineups, and like, I'd just be like, so ready for it. And like, I would just know like, okay, like, we get past this hit, or there's a big drop off in betting average, and then just like, live betting throughout the game. And like, that was probably one of the anglers I did. Very well at early on, it was one of my more thought, even though like, once a week, I felt like I, you could get in, you know, in one game like, on a fair eight out of 15, 20 bats, and, for the highlight of this for me at the time, I think it was probably like a 2K for bad, and I wasn't even, I maxed it only if I thought it was kind of an extreme edge of that time. 2K was like a pretty big bet for me. But yeah, that one just stands out, and I remember like one year, like Sunday night baseball came, and it just like, I loaded it up, and it's just like, it's not here anymore. It just felt like the gut finds some like, but, but I was so ready to go. I feel like I got some value of skill on the probably very few people better, remember, and was a big fan of that. When you loaded up, and it's no longer there, it's like one of the worst feelings in this profession. Yeah, really is. When I like you go out of check, like, oh, it's not a correlated same game, partly I used to have, and just like, but I wanted 3.50, not 2.50, like, yeah, yeah. That is also very sad. Yeah. This one from Calvin, I thought, it was a great question. We kind of touched on it, but I think talking to you to this episode, I really understand where he's coming from here. He says, I worry a lot about becoming a cynical bastard after doing this for as long as Adam has, and changing for the worse as a person. How has he been able to remain a helpful and con mentor to people like me, and does he have any advice on how to avoid burnout and remain altruistic in the years down the road? Yeah, I think I caught an answer this throughout the episode, but essentially it was, you know, get humbled. I think I kind of finally did become a rich ass off for a little while, got humbled, and just kind of learned to appreciate it the second time throughout when I had sort of had a second one of success. I don't. Yeah, and I saw the other thing. I know Calvin's talked about this too, but sort of saying that he's not, you know, like he used to just work a crappy job before he was a better, and they just kind of like, you know, just barely appreciate it of like what else would I do if I didn't do this? And I have that same feeling. You look at someone like Lufresse, like Lufresse was gonna succeed in life. He wasn't about it. He would be successful doing something else. So I don't necessarily think that would be true for me, certainly not to the same scale. I think that just gives me a lot of respect. I mean, perspectives, like, it's everything. And just being able to like be grateful. I mean, you know, we don't want to go into the self-help section of the podcast, but yeah, like just being grateful, I think, just generally helps. But I, I, I wanted to, I like this question because like I've, and you know, kind of, I'll just kind of talk about it on the Bayesian update, but like I have found that like being plugged in on Twitter is like a double-edged sword, and it's certainly like also makes you, I mean, it makes you cynical for reasons outside of sports, better, like a lot of Twitter is just generally like that way, but uh, yeah, I see it's something I'm trying to fight against too. I remember Spanky had that episode of Be Better Betters about like, why not to be a sports better? And it's not that I disagreed with any specific point he made, but I kind of just didn't like that episode. In the sense that I was kind of like, feel like I could make a better and more compelling list of like all the ways it's been good to me. And like sure, those aspects have a bit of difficulty, and yeah, you get stiff, or like you have a horrible one or just all these different things that could be frustrating, but the end of the day, it's like, you know, like, okay, I'm not going to like, you're not going to live in a cotton candy house and have like a perfect life. And like, you know, your job never gives you any problems or anything. I kind of thought it may be fun in what's a position that gets very lucky to be, have this kind of job. Like, it's just, yeah, it's sort of like I thought a two negative and outlook, even though point by point I was like, yeah, like, can suck, I can suck, I can see what he's comes from, but it's not how I feel about it. Yeah, especially Spanky, like he's been so successful. Yeah, I found like, like, poker like a lot of like, I don't know if you guys use this term, but like, Miz, Rick, because like, if you would go play live, there's just like these miserable rags and you'd be like, and they just, anything that happened, it was just complaining after complaining, right? But like, I get it from them, like from Spanky, like, you made generation of well, like, you do it, you do it. Okay, even the flag, you don't love any aspect of it. I don't love any of it either, but. All right, last last question. And I know we touch on aspects of this too. So I don't know if you have anything additional ad before we go to our, our final questions. This one from Sean Figgins. If I remember correctly, Adam doesn't use have a model in the traditional sense, at least with the rise of AI, vibe coding, etc. As your stance on this change, does he feel like he's leaking alpha without that without one? So I know we talked about this a good bit. I'm curious, like, I know you've you talked about moving more to live and some of that, but I don't know if you have any other thoughts on on this moving forward. No, I think I've mostly answered, I mean, I've shown answers like I just, you know, listen to, I know there's people out there doing what I'm doing, like betting NBA pop, so just more sophisticated than me and I'm not going to become, you know, I'm not going to be like, okay, I'm going to like, you know, study out for a month and be better with this than Louis, like, sim and games, like, it's, you know, it's just not realistic. So I just kind of, you have to, I would say I'd just be gained more respect for the market from two years ago and more selective about how much I bad and run I bad, but yeah, but I'm not going to, I still, I would say the process is still largely unchanged. Okay, let's, let's go to our final questions. Then the first one for you only, what is a, do you have a hot take that you think most of gambling Twitter, you know, your peers, the, the sharper side of gambling Twitter would disagree with? I'm excited for this one. The, the refund, the people who asked for a refund, they were proven right. They got fraud and fraud and fraud. You get refunds now. Actually good. It is a great, you know, is a great day. Yeah, they, they 100% won. Like everybody's telling them like not to like soften society. Like, no, they won. They got what they wanted. Every book has to pander to them. Yeah, it's like, it raises the ROI, even if they're losing better. From a record point of view, it's maybe, maybe even more than just the ROI raise. Like if you just, you want to bet on an overrun watch the game, you guy gets injured in the first quarter. Like that's not a fun experience. Now you get your money back, like at least on some sites like draft kings. It's like, they've improved their experience. They won. Yeah, some bookie 15 years ago would have left in your face if you asked for a refund, but this isn't a bookie. It's like a multi-billion dollar company who like is trying to get all the wreck action and they had a demand and they got away like it's. If you take those same people over, you know, 20 subjects, maybe they're going to go one in 19, but they were right on the week. So I'm going to see, you know, void bone X from your Twitter account. Yeah, you got to get in there with them. You have true many people, a little too, uh, five for to join in for the ridicule that we see, but I appreciate them fighting the battle for me and I, uh, a big fan of, uh, a big fan of that work. That is such a good idea. I agree with you guys. So I like it. Usually, you know, we, we know it's Luke Warren. That's definitely one of my people would disagree with. All right, last, last part, Bayesian update. Uh, I will give mine quick. Um, I had two. I guess I'll give one that's more topical. I think the NFL needs to go to spot fails on pass interference. Um, I've wavered on this back and forth, um, you know, like college. I just think it's two, two high leverage and I've never watched a college game where like someone in, you know, the thought is like, oh, you're going to, you know, class someone to intentionally pass interference. I got a long pass, you know, and they're not going to reap the harm from that. I've, I've never seen a college football game like where that's the case or very few times where I saw like someone just intentionally pass interfering when they're beat. Um, so I, I think it should go to a spot foul. There should be no 50 yard penalties in the NFL. So that, that's, that's my update. John, do you, you have one? Yeah, I also like, I think I like that. I'm going to think about that. Yeah, I agree with that one too. Is he right? Like, and also then the refs like don't call it like if it's the one. Well, he tackled you in the end zone, but since it's the fourth quarter in the game's time to play off like, sorry, I'm not blowing my whistle. And it's like, okay, well, yeah, it probably does more harm. Honestly, yeah, that's a good one. Um, yeah, I had one that's like totally different, but it was on the positive vibes. I was just thinking via Calvin's question. And this week about Twitter and saying positive. And I think like, I did talk about this one of my New Year's resolutions. It's not like go after like prediction market people on Twitter and just be be more positive. But I was, I was thinking like, even pass that I just feel like I'm not like like when you consume content like on Twitter or a lot of stuff, I'll watch, just like scary movies or all listen to some true crime podcast. Like I really do feel like like I want you start to cut back to like, funnier, less depressing content just overall. And and just like give my brain a break. Like I don't know if like I used to think like, oh, I can just like read all this, you know, shit on Twitter and I'll watch this, you know, high anxiety scary movie and all this, this true crime podcast. But like on my own personally, it's not going to affect me. But like I do think there is some overlap between like what content you consume and your mood or like kind of like the what type of content or what the message of the content is. So think uh, and my quest for positivity in 2026, I'm going to be doing a revamp of like maybe a little bit less time scrolling on Twitter plus, you know, some some more uplifting content once in a while. Yeah, I agree with that a lot. I think like it's easy to think like, well, like my mind is my mind. And like what what enters my mind is just like separate from like my thoughts, but like it's and sometimes you don't even realize it. I think that's the worst part of it. And that that actually tied into mind, which is it's maybe a little esoteric, but uh, trying to find, I've been gambling for so long and you know, 20 years and gambling money is the scoreboard. And it's I think sometimes it makes you, it can almost remove that like, harder to see value in things that don't make you money. And I've been trying to like work on that like I used to like to write and I've really written in a long time and I was thinking like, maybe I should start writing some more and then my first thought was well, how can I like get big enough to monetize that? And it's like, you know, I think that I need to like get away from that mindset. Like I'm not going to find a lot of things that will like replicate gambling for income or anything, but just try to find like try to find things that have give you value or meaning that are not that are in financial. And I think gambling is like just doing it for so I think when I was younger, that would have been very obvious to me, but having just gambled for so long that that's like, I guess corrupt it is too strong a word, but kind of change my mind to like think like everything in like sort of an EV like, but if I do this, how could I make money off of it? I like, it's just at the end of the day like to what end? You know, it's not. Obviously, need money. I think not money that's not important, but it's not it's not the sort of sort of source of like meaning or satisfaction and gambling it almost is. So if you do that your whole life then you just start to think that way. Oh well that yeah it's something I've been struggling struggling with too. So I think that's a really good one. 2026 is a big year for just you know really becoming more well-rounded people as gamblers. Like that. I think it's perfect way to close. Cool. Well thanks for coming on man it was it was great to have you and you know obviously from the comments in the thread we launch now you can tell like you have a lot of a lot of fans out there and a lot of people who think highly of you and you know we we certainly do and this was really fun nice conversation to have and I'm leaving this on a positive note so it ties them to the basing update because this is content that I feel like yeah and it's a positive content. Yeah yeah uplifting content. I love it. That's great. Great way to end. Thank you so much for having me on guys. Huge fan of the podcast it's definitely earlier in the year definitely had some bit of a law kind of enthusiasm with betting and some of your episodes definitely kind of sparked a little more a little more like some ideas and just a little one enthusiasm for it and I really appreciate it and happy to be honest with you guys. Love it. Well thank you and thanks everyone for listening and the questions etc and we will see you on the next episode.