A "fundamental shift" in energy thinking: the Energy Transition Index 2026
42m 30s
The podcast discusses the 16th annual Energy Transition Index from the World Economic Forum, which assesses 120 countries on system performance (sustainability, equity, security) and transition readiness. While clean energy investment and capacity are at record highs, transition readiness has declined for the first time due to policy instability and infrastructure bottlenecks, particularly grid constraints. The current geopolitical crisis, exemplified by tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, has heightened focus on energy security, accelerating efforts to diversify supply and localize production. China, through its rapid adoption of solar and electric vehicles, feels insulated from the crisis, as domestic renewables reduce oil import dependence. However, experts note a dichotomy: short-term shocks may increase fossil fuel use, but long-term, security concerns could drive renewables and electrification. Alternatively, if new fossil fuel sources outside the Middle East come online, oil and gas prices could drop, undermining climate goals. Investment is currently shifting toward low-risk, short-payback projects, while high interest rates and uncertainty hinder advanced technologies like offshore wind and hydrogen. The episode underscores that sustained policy support is crucial to maintain decarbonization momentum amid geopolitical and market volatility.
There's really been a shift, fundamental shift in how policymakers are viewing energy supply and this current conflict has underlined the vulnerability of current energy supply chains and the need for greater diversification. Welcome to Radio Davos, the podcast on the World Economic Forum that looks at the biggest challenges and how we might solve them. This week we look at the latest energy transition index and ask how the current oil crisis might transform the world of energy. As China's massive increase in renewables and electric vehicles insulated it from what's happening in the straight of hormones. I think that we do not fear much actually about what happens the most. Not much. And we're quite comfortable then, that is now going to affect China, you will be lost no more. The energy transition index is a snapshot of how countries are doing to develop energy systems that are clean, secure and equitable. How will this current oil shock affect that in the short and long terms? We hear a range of views. There's a sort of dichotomy. If we look at the short term, a shock like we've seen is likely to increase the use of oil and gas and in many markets in South East Asian, South Asia, coal. Our own modelling indicates that actually the long term outcome is that this increased focus on security will actually become a driver of renewables and electrification. On the solar can be local rights every country has a one in solar. You want to local rights as a commotion fundamentally would change the strategy of every country who local rights are the end user supply because they'll know what can happen next. I'm Robin Pomoroi at the World Economic Forum and with this look at the global energy transition. The long term direction it continues towards decarbonisation. This is Radio Davos. Welcome to Radio Davos this week we're talking about the energy transition as the World Economic Forum has just published its energy transition index. We've got two experts joining us on the line but before we meet them I also have a co-host for this episode. Nick Wagner, hi Nick how are you? Hi Robin I'm great how are you? I'm very well thank you. What do you do at the World Economic Forum? I'm a manager in the Energy Initiatives team here at the Center for Energy Materials, one of the centers at the World Economic Forum and I lead the work on our energy transition index. The energy transition index is this annual report. Tell us what it says. I mean tell us before we go into the details of what it says what actually is it, what's the concept of it? Yeah so we're in our 16th year of producing this benchmark. It's a benchmark that looks at 120 countries around the world, assesses them based on their energy transition and we define energy transition as a more sort of complex matrix that involves system performance which is how well energy systems are performing based on data around three dimensions of sustainability, equity and security that last part is very important I think will come up today. We also have a look at the broad readiness environment in those countries that looks at their ability to embrace change that's through financial regulation, innovation, human capital, infrastructure investment. So every year we produce an analysis and then we summarize that in our energy transition index and we launch it in the summertime frame just before the foreign summer Davos in China and we try our best to reflect on the current market situations in that report but it's a snapshot of where countries stand at the time of production. It's a snapshot but the fact you've been doing it 16 years means there's a trajectory you could chart, where certain countries are going, how things are changing. Before we introduce the two guests that you've brought for this episode today could you give us some of the headlines from the report, people will be able to find it, they'll be linking the show notes. It's if you're interested in global energy and the energy transition is absolute must read but tell us Nick what are some of the headlines for you. We say so much if you're interested in any in a topical area there's interesting insights in there about security about sustainability if you're interested in any of the 120 countries you can go into more depth but if I had to summarize maybe two topics on the highest level headline that stands out to me is that we're seeing a divergence in a way that we have not seen in the 16 years of producing the index. Energy systems around the world are performing well so we're seeing record investment in clean energy technology, we're seeing the highest share of clean energy electricity production and gigawatts of renewable energy capacity in record investment. The transition is happening on the ground but at the same time the conditions that are needed to sustain this progress so those are things like policy stability access to finance innovation infrastructure. Those transit what we call transition readiness have weakened and it's actually the first time in over a decade that the overall score for transition readiness is declined as opposed to increase we've seen continuous increase for the last 10 years of transition readiness this year it's declined system performance on the ground is improved but you could say so to say this could be a foreshadowing of what might be to come in the future. Why has that declined what kinds of things are not happening that that kind of were developing before. So policy stability is one a major bottleneck that we see as an infrastructure delivery so it's no longer about specifically about deployment meaning installing capacity in the case of renewable capacity or electric vehicles or efficiency it's more about the systems around that that are really struggling to incorporate that technology. This isn't new but it's really coming to the fore that we're seeing a lot of infrastructure bottlenecks. For instance there's over 2,500 gigawatts of clean energy capacity that's in the pipeline a lot of that's blocked through through infrastructure constraints. So I think the grid just can't handle it. There's the grid side so we see very significant electricity demand growth it's coming from EVs but it's actually a lot of it's coming in many markets from AI but also cooling let's not forget that many markets are getting very hot and are deploying cooling which is very important also for quality of life so we're seeing that on the electricity side we're also seeing this sort of infrastructure stickiness on the fuel side. The majority of energy is still delivered in the form of molecules oil and gas essentially well so cool and there's the infrastructure that's needed to supply that is very very sticky in a way and it's not very flexible that's also and that leads me to the second main headlight I would say. This year's analysis shows that the only system performance dimension so of the security and sustainability both equity and sustainability improved this year but security declined and this does this reflects data and data is encapsulating the recent energy crisis and hormones but we think it was it's a good indication that security was already having challenges we think that would be exacerbated this year for obvious reasons. Right security meaning security of supply of energy. For an expert on energy you're about to introduce two other experts on energy. I'm not an expert so much on energy so I'll explain AI obviously is artificial intelligence everyone knows that EVs are electric vehicles and when you talk about security you mean security of supply is a vital thing it's no good if we get energy today but then tomorrow there's a risk of us not getting it's that that's what we mean by security of supply right. And this is also why the energy transition index in our definition of energy transition isn't solely focused on a single facet so it's not just about reducing carbon emissions it's also about having secure and resilient energy systems so we measure that it's about having equitable which is another term for affordable you you can't have energy transition of prices or through the roof it's public public won't accept it and then it's also this holistic forward looking transition readiness component. Got it right let's get to these two guests who've been patiently waiting online for us tell us who they are. Yeah we're very happy to have two brilliant guests that actually know this work well they both sit on the advisory board for the energy transition index and so on engaged throughout the year when we produce it and so we were happy to get to collect their views but also provide those views so the first guest is Lucy Craig she is director of growth innovation and digitalization at DNV and DNV is one of the world's leading advisory and assurance organizations and works across the full energy value chain from oil to gas to offshore wind and hydrogen and other technologies and Lucy's focus is on innovation and digital technology and how that's reshaping energy systems and she brings a uniquely practical perspective on how companies and investors are navigating the transition in real time she's based here in Europe. Hi Lucy how are you? Hi Robin great to be here thank you for the invitation. It's great to meet you who's out who's our second guest Nick. Our second guest is coming to us from China also on the advisory board and he's professor Bo Chenglin we call him BQ for short based out of Shaman University and he is Dean of the China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy and Chair Professor of the School of Management he is one of China's best well-known energy economists with many decades of research and energy policy and carbon markets and economics and can bring an important perspective from the world's largest energy consumer and one of the most pivotal players in the world and he also brings us at a indispensable moment where China's role in the global energy transition is top of mind. BQ nice to meet you. I discussed with Nick questions we should put and he allowed me I think to go straight into kind of the newsy stuff, but let's see.
where we go with this. The Strait of Hormuz has shown the delicate balance, I guess, of supply and demand of energy in particularly fossil fuels. I guess my question is we don't know how that's gonna end as we're sitting here now, but we know it's having an impact. Is this impact temporary or might it be an inflection point that could really change the game when it comes to energy and the energy transition? Lucy. So of course, we hope that the current conflict will be solved as soon as possible. And this disruption is hugely significant, but it's also just one more in what's been a series of shocks over recent years. And we see this as an accelerator in shifting the balance of the energy trilema that Nick just outlined. It was already moving away from a focus on sustainability towards energy security and resilience. And we in DNV have recently completed a survey over 1,000 energy industry professionals on this topic of the increased focus on energy security and resilience and that backs up that countries and companies are really seeing the vulnerability of global energy supply chains and they're now moving to prioritize diversification to supply domestic production and then that resilience of infrastructure and supply chains. And so this recent shock has really just accelerated those initiatives to reduce dependence on imported fuels. And so what are the alternatives? What are countries and companies considering to reduce reliance on those imported fuels? So of course, a push towards renewables in renewables of technology is already there. And some of the limitations have been more related to policy and permitting and also grid infrastructure. So in particularly Europe, there's a focus on increasing the production of renewals and reducing the bottlenecks for that. And we see that in other countries around the globe. And of course, also nuclear is part of an area of focus for some countries as well. So really diversification of supply and diversification of the supply chain. A lot of these things are investments are very long-term. You can't build a nuclear power plant, have it up and running in a few months. These are years and years away. Other things might be shorter term than that. I wonder if policymakers and decision makers are thinking, we could just hang on. This crisis will be over and we can just go back to the status quo ante. We don't see that happening. No, we see that there's really been a shift, fundamental shift in how policy makers are viewing the energy supply. And this current conflict has underlined the vulnerability of current energy supply chains and the need for greater diversification to build that resilience that the Nick touched on earlier. Let's move to China. Be careful how do you say things from there. I think that we do not fear much actually about what happens the most, not much. And we're quite confident that it's not going to affect China even with last-low-low. The news on four days, very soon for last year, we had about 400 billion gigahertz of one-day solar system. And now the one-day solar plus energy storage plus energy vehicle, this line is powerful. Two years ago, I won't say that, but today is workable. Because it's actually cheaper. And also, one-day solar can be localized. Every country has a one-day solar. You want to localize, I think for most, I agree with Lucy, instead. Fundamentally, we change the strategy of every country to localize the energy supply. Because the low what's going to happen next, if you don't know what's going to happen, next three years, even how most can be addressed. So I probably will try to localize it. Yeah, energy supply. But that's one result of that's workable. Today, I can comfortably say it's worker, because it's cheaper. And I think in two years, it's a little bit more expensive in China at this moment. But two years later, I think we compared it all to code. And also, it's easy to build. It's secure and it's cheaper. And also, that it's a beauty nature of the wind and solar actually is really a process for any school, in or any country. It actually, because last year, our pen is written very in Chinese. It's see the 50%. This year, last month is 63%. Last year, along I think we reduced a lot, we about 10% of the gasoline consumption in China. And I have estimated, if we have a 100-minute of electric vehicles, we can reduce roughly 100-minute power of the oil consumption. And that's roughly half of the 20% of the China's import. And if we reach 100-minute yield of the electric vehicle, the home was for China is not important anymore. So that's why we apply comfort and at least point China is not really panicky. They quality reflect us on it. I think Lucy and BQ brought up some interesting points that I'd like to just expand on briefly. I think there is an important differentiation between the short term and the long term. And some of that was alluded to in the challenge of infrastructure. I think there was a positive message that came out of China about how China, through its really decades now, of energy planning is a bit more insulated from the current crisis that we see. I'll point out that in other country that is less impacted is Brazil. Brazil, from the fuel standpoint, has produced a lot of indigenous fuels, but also biofuels, and has seen a lot less impact on its energy prices. But there's a sort of dichotomy. I think if we look at the short term, a shock like we've seen is likely to increase the use of oil and gas and in many markets in South East Asian, South Asia, coal, because those are the fuels that can turn to. And the ability to deploy alternatives is oftentimes limited by the deployment of the infrastructure challenges. There's also a question, longer term. So there's one view. And most certainly, there'll be multiple transitions that occur. One is that they'll invest in efficiency, invest in renewables, invest in hydrogen, invest in greater grid, and nuclear, and electrification. But there's also another argument to say that there's a lot of investment that's occurring at the moment in fossil fuel extraction outside of the Middle East, looking at Africa, looking at North America, which is the largest producer now, both oil and gas, looking at South America. So you see a lot of the energy majors producing new fuels. And that will take time to develop. But a lot of that-- there's a lot of resource out there in regions outside of the Middle East. Presuming that the Middle East, the steady homoose, goes back to normal operation, then you have a lot of additional supply that will come out of that region. So we could be in a place in two years, five years, where the world actually has a lot more oil and gas supply and prices are very suppressed, which could have a very detrimental effect on the cost-benefit calculations for alternatives. That's an unexpected conclusion. And the reason for that would be that people are diversifying where oil and gas comes from. Correct. And there's a lot on the North Shore of Alaska, all throughout in Argentina, all throughout all shore in Brazil, in huge portions of Africa, in Venezuela. There's a lot of oil and gas around the world, not to mention unconventional in the US and other places. So I think it's important for policymakers to understand that the short-term reaction is what it is. But longer term without the continued policy support around transition readiness, if the aim is to continue to address emissions, that there needs to continue to be policy, because the market will likely-- who knows, nobody can predict the future. But the market will likely continue with lower cost oil and gas. Currently, oil and gas, even though certain types of products are very expensive, is at $90 a barrel. And so you could only imagine if things rectify in the straight-off removes. And then additional supply comes online that we have many decades to come of oil and gas at low levels. Which doesn't bode well for climate change. If, as Lucy said, some-- a lot of the policy emphasis is switched away from sustainability to security of supply. Well, you could fix security of supply by finding new sources of fossil fuels. But you're totally not achieving the sustainability objective. I'll just leave that out there. Nick, John, ask us the next question. I think we've discussed some dynamics about the global energy landscape. Is it's sort of-- it's been shaped by a complex mix of uncertainty, geopolitical tensions. In evolving policy priorities. So how will this grouping of challenges affect the investment decisions of companies and governments? And maybe alluding to what we just discussed, how might that affect the trajectory looking ahead of the energy systems? So Lucy, what do you see from where you're sitting? Yes, so very relevant question, Nick. what we see under the current huge
certainty, both at levels of policy and the geopolitical environment. Companies and governments are shifting towards projects which have shorter payback, low regulatory risk and are aligned with their energy security priorities. So that means looking at domestic renewables, power grids, LNG in some regions. And so we see that capital has been concentrated in lower risk markets. And then we also see that the current high interest rates, uncertainty in policy are increasing the cost of capital. And that's particularly true for less mature technologies. So offshore wind or clean hydrogen are much less attractive in the short term. And I think that goes back to your point, Nick, that there's a short term scenario that is putting a break on the pace of the energy transition. But then there's also a longer term scenario. And I'd like to just say a few words on that longer term scenario because yes, the focus on energy security means that energy exporting countries are perhaps looking at new ways of investing in oil gas, exploration, but energy importing countries are doing the reverse. They're shifting their focus away from fossil fuels towards the alternatives renewables and in some cases nuclear. And so our own modeling indicates that actually the long term outcome is that this increased focus on security will actually become a driver of renewables and electrification. So we have short term. I think we see a slow down but longer term. We see that in some regions energy security focus is achieving a result on a faster energy transition that previously we have not seen. There's two quite different scenarios that are set out there. And no one has a crystal ball, right? I guess keep reading energy transition index every year. You're going to see how this develops. So we've looked at the state of hormones, current situation which could go on, could stop tomorrow, could go on for months. Another trend that you've already mentioned Nick is a massive increase in demand for electricity. You mentioned various reasons for that. One of them is artificial intelligence, the data centers, Lucy. You work with the technology sector on energy. How are you seeing things changed by this rising AI? So certainly let's talk first about electricity. It's rapidly becoming the backbone of the energy system. So currently electricity is about 20% of total energy demand. And we foresee through our modeling that by 2060 this will be over 40% of total energy demand. And that electricity will be generated mainly by renewables around 80% of electricity globally. And of course AI adds a new demand vector and data centers are expected to grow very significantly. But we're showing that it's manageable. We're expecting it to be around 5% of total electricity by 2040. So yes AI is important, but there are other vectors which are increasing electricity. We talked about EVs earlier and also the increased use of electricity for cooling demand that Nick mentioned at the start. But that goes back to the point that the power system is a main driver for the energy transition and also potential constraint. And so looking at how we can unlock potential bottlenecks in grid capacity and permitting delays is another important factor. BQ, what's the view from China artificial intelligence development there is massively important as well. Is this a real challenge for China to to meet demand energy demand for that? In fact to meet the energy demand in China is a large linear problem because China is a huge electricity energy system and is a huge capacity for either for renewables or also for coal. In fact the coal-fired system right now the design hours is 5500. Right now only generate about 4400 last year could be even lower. In other words we are enormous capacity there and the reason is that the coal-fired system is so low is because supporting are expensive of renewables. In fact we are using coal coal-fired system to support the renewable expansion not use any storage and we are hoping that this could be changed because any storage is expensive now but will be cheaper in the future. Those are strategies someone need to be make a decision to make a choice but I think that will be intelligent enough to choose the any storage at this moment not to expense the coal-fired system. So that's one another one is that I do believe that the AI will have impact on China's energy state demand but the impact is manageable. Electricity demand right now last seven years is a lot of 6.5 percent growth in about 10 years time that it will be double and I think that we will believe that this trend will continue because right now the manufacturing of the wind and solar together with the electric vehicle will become a man demand for electricity. If this continues in China and I believe so because China also believes the geopartite takes and also the the the the end school is quite important and our weakest point is oil import. Lovely 70 percent are a little lower right now we used to go out to 70 to 73. The past few years has been declined by what are the one or two percent each year and this year could be even lower because of the electricity coming from the the wind and solar and charge by the electric vehicle. So the the I think that the the impact of the AI is mixed into the overall electricity demand because it's only a small percentage of electricity demand. So if China determined to to meet the electricity demand the AI wouldn't be a problem and I right now the our our focus right now the China's focus right now is using the wind and solar to support the data center. That's why we move the data center into west where the wind and solar could be caused could be very reasonable. The AI demand was merged with the general electricity demand in China. I remember that right now every three kilowatt hour generated globally one kilowatt hour is in China and I think 10 years for now that's quite possible that two kilowatt hour generated one kilowatt hour would be in China. If the China continue by roughly 6.5 percent growth this year I think roughly will be a little still more than 6 percent growth for electricity. The expensive of electricity is dramatically supported by the wind and solar are a lot bigger and therefore that that we hope in that now we need to meet the AI demand also meeting the AI demand in a criminal in a criminal way. So I think it will happen. Yeah. And China is also supplying wind and solar infrastructure to the rest of the world. Do you see is that going fast enough? Are there barriers for Chinese exporters? The west, the US is worried about trade deficits, these kinds of things but we do know that China can supply a lot of that and does supply a lot of that equipment. Does anything need to change there? Do you think BQ? I think that the changes are not on the China side or on the other side, the demand side. Whether you are willing to use China's wind and solar and electric vehicles that can stop. If the developed country is willing to use China's wind and solar equipment plus electric vehicles, I think we can move much faster in the transition for any system. But right now I believe that China has no problem of supplying equipment or even technology. The problem is the west in general developed countries are really afraid of it depends too much on China. And that's one of the problems that is geopolitics. And then how much the China can do at this point? Nick, what else is in the energy transition index about this rise of electricity demand? I think it was actually quite well addressed. It's also a localized challenge. We talk about AI and electricity. Cooling is going to increase, drive more electricity demand than AI globally. AI conditioning. Air conditioning in many markets. But that's extremely distributed. I mean more in urban areas. AI data centers are very localized. They're huge sources of electricity demand. So in many instances, we see that in the case of the US, it is putting pressure on local grids, on local energy affordability. So that's I think that's like the more granular challenge that exists in AI. But it's just another driver, I think is Lucy mentioned about this increase in electricity. Electricity is growing three-debit globally over 3% per year as opposed to energy, which is growing around 2%. So the largest component is electricity demand growth. I wanted to talk a little bit about emerging markets and specifically Africa.
because this year's findings of ETI when we look at regional levels, Africa is actually the best performing region on an aggregate in terms of improvement. It's the, from overall score standpoint, it is the lowest, but it's the most improved year to year. In Africa's a complex story, it's not one dimensional, and the continent does face a lot of challenges. But because we see that improvement, I just want to ask about emerging markets because we see that the majority of energy demand into the future will come from emerging markets, not just Africa, but the global south and other areas. And there are a lot of challenges in meeting that demand. There's a high financing premium in most of those markets, and where most of the capital is is not in those markets. There's a capital demand sort of mismatch in addition to a lot of infrastructure challenges. So I think it's encouraging to see the improvement that we've seen in emerging markets particularly. Last year, the best improving region was emerging Europe. That's Eastern Europe, Central and Eastern Europe. And this year, and they've actually done quite well this year as well, and this year it's Africa. Transition is happening really also in those emerging markets, and I just want to point that out. But also how countries advance the economies and emerging economies complement that work would be interesting. So maybe BQ could let us know a little bit more about how China is approaching emerging markets and supporting them in their transition. Right now, the China is determined not to build any co-fire power plant abroad. That's been policy for a long time. So right now, whatever going to the emerging markets, particularly Africa, is actually winning solar. And I believe that the problem in the emerging markets is grip. That has a weak grip and that different from China. China is a very strong grip, so they can support the renewables throughout the means. But in Africa, I believe that if somehow that China can further the cost of the solar, the will become affordable for the African countries for emerging markets. So I think that's what part to go because it's a cream, it's a security, it's a security future in here. And I think it would be for sure and also for long. I will say that for a few years from now, the solar cost storage could be actually cheaper than coal and possibly cheaper than natural gas. Not necessarily emancipating all other countries. That might be the case. If that is the case, why not? So the right now is that China is still working very hard with the cost of energy storage. And let's see how it's going to happen in a couple of next few years. The cost has been reduced tremendously for any storage in past few years. Somebody told me it's about five times lower, something like that. And efficiency is about three times higher. So the one and only source is not a problem at this moment. The problem is we did the storage and it's moving very faster. So I already believed that a certain point that the renewables could be compatible with the fossil fuel, even fossil fuel costs could be lower and the below in the future. Technology, I just want to make an advert now for another fantastic report from the World Economic Forum, which is the top 10 emerging technologies. There'll be a radio Davos episode on that coming out in about a week's time from when this one comes out. So there's a top 10 technologies that are viewed as having potentially world changing impact in the next five years. And at least two of them, if not three of those top 10, are to do with energy. One of them is passive, a regular cooling, which might offset some of the demand for air conditioning. And another one is everything to grid energy. And this is stuff like electric vehicles having a battery that can both take electricity off the grid, but also put it back on at times of peak demand. Things like that, Nick, are they still kind of at the very early stages? They're not filtering through to the energy transition index yet, right? No, I think passive cooling is in the design principle that's been used a lot, but it could definitely be deployed in much more interesting ways. As could things like building integrated PV, you know, there's structures, there's roofing structures that can fall. So if I will say it. Yeah, exactly. So there's a lot of ways that you can do that. The issue with the building stock is that it's very costly to renovate. And it's very time consuming. So Europe, for instance, only renovates around 1% of its building stock per year. And there's been a lot of ambition to increase that. And it's been very difficult outside of like heat pump systems. So when you, you know, for new structures, absolutely, but for existing structures, which is quite challenging. And on the two way charging or sort of the interaction, everything to grid now maybe AI can assist it that I don't know. I know that this is something that's been talked about for a long time, but hasn't seen, hasn't seen wide scale deployment. Maybe there's something interesting occurring in China that Lucy knows of. It's always sort of for me a test of concept. In principle, it makes a lot of sense to be able to have that electric vehicle fleet. But those vehicles need to be made available to the grid. And right now there's not sufficient charging infrastructure in most markets needless to say having those vehicles connected. It would work in more suburban societies where those vehicles can park in garages. But most of the world doesn't live in suburban single homes with garages. It really requires a large number of electric vehicles for this group to work or work to grid become medium. And I think there's a private testing in China in several cities. It's working now. And somebody told me it's workable. Of course, the charging stations in China develop very quickly in recent years. And if this technology will happen, you will happen first in China. Because China is most of the electric vehicles at this point. And it has an urgent need for the electric vehicle to become part of the anti-stories to support the peak. So there's a need, there's a market. So if something goes, this will happen, will happen in China first. And that's why I've been in the next few years. Lucy, I'll bring you in. Feel free to comment on that. But I know you've got something to say about cyber security and cyber resilience. Yeah, I think it's very well linked actually because I definitely see that two way charging as a tool in the future to add the flexibility that is needed for the electrified energy system to really be effective. And we talked about buildings becoming net generators of electricity. And this is all part of an increasingly complex energy system. And power systems, which are two way flow distributed as well as with large distance power generation stations like offshore wind all controlled through digital technologies and some use of AI. It means that they are increasingly vulnerable to cyber attacks. And we've already seen how cyber is being used as a result of some of the global conflicts to attack energy systems. And we see an increasingly increasing risk. And that goes back to the point we mentioned at the beginning that energy security and resilience has this new vector, which is also a driver towards revaluation of supply chains and looking at where energy is produced as well as consumed. So another area where the world economic forum produces very interesting work cyber security. I'll put some links in the show notes to this to reports on cyber security and to radio Davos episodes about it. Nick, we wanted to end on a note of I think there's been a lot of optimism in this conversation. But if we go around maybe start with the guests and I'll end with you. Be cute. You want to in your final words tell us what makes you most optimistic when it comes to the energy transition. Two years ago, I wouldn't say that, but today I can definitely say that when sort of studies the energy vehicle is workable now. And it's going to be even better few years from now. So I hope that the global lead that all the countries will see the benefit of this and begin a transition, but also protect their own energy security. It's really enormous progress in the when solar studies plus energy vehicle in China. I still remember that five years ago, it penetrated in the way of electricity vehicle is probably 10%. Three years ago is a 30%. Okay. This year last last month, 62%. So it's a tremendous growth there. We have a lot of problems need to need to be addressed, but I believe that today is workable. Lucy. Yes, reasons for optimism. I think on the technology front, we see that there's continued cost reduction, particularly solar and storage that BQ mentioned and also in wind. So that means decarbonized electricity generation is also tackling the affordability part of the energy trillema that was discussed. And so there's a strong technology momentum. We have strong foundations. We see increasing scale in deployment and the long term direction continues towards decarbonization and also as I mentioned in the longer term. There's an expectation that the focus on energy security can also drive decarbonization. Yeah, and I think I also share the optimism. The technology is there. The cost.
of many of those technologies is there. There are really great examples coming out of many different countries, not just China, about how they can be deployed at scale and the systems that are supporting that. From ETI this year, you know, we have a lot of positivity in certain areas, but one of them is that we do see one in four countries improving across all elements of the index, meaning they've improved their security, they've improved their sustainability, and they've improved their equity. One in four may not sound like a lot, but it's quite impressive to improve across this holistic, these holistic dimensions. But more importantly, these countries are actually very different. They range from European countries like France, Asian countries like Japan. We have countries in Africa, such as Nigeria and Turkey. So I think this sort of reiterates that there is in a single global energy transition, there are multiple transitions. Each country will find its own way to do it. Might emphasize a little bit more security or a little bit more sustainability or equity, depending on their situation, but you can improve across the broad-based index. And this year's ETI shows that and also highlights some of those success stories and contextualizes it. So I think it's a great read. And I hope everybody has a look at it. That's it. Get your plug in at the end. So we can find out how the energy transition is going across the world in the energy transition index. Nick, link to that in the show notes. Thanks to you for co-hosting with me this episode. Thanks to our guest, Lucy Craig, Director of Growth Innovation and Digitalization at DNV. And thanks to Bo-Shang Ling, BQ, Chair Professor at the School of Management in Shaman University. Find the energy transition index on our website, link in the show notes. Please follow Radio Davos wherever you get your podcasts or at wef.ch/podcast. We also find our sister programs meet the leader and agenda dialogues. Radio Davos will be publishing daily shows from the summer Davos in Dallion China next week. You'll be getting that daily if you're following us on any app, Spotify, Apple, any other podcast app. You can also listen on the forum live app and will be live blogging from that meeting, the annual meeting of the new champions in Dallion China on the forum website. Don't miss any of that, but for now, thanks to you for listening and goodbye.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
The energy transition index reveals a divergence
Geopolitical shocks, such as the Strait of Hormuz crisis, are accelerating a shift from sustainability toward energy security and resilience, driving diversification and local supply.
China’s massive investment in renewables, solar, and electric vehicles has insulated it from the current crisis, reducing its dependence on imported oil.
Short-term reactions to oil shocks may increase fossil fuel use (oil, gas, coal), while long-term outcomes could either boost renewables or, if new fossil fuel sources come online, suppress prices and slow the transition.
Uncertainty and high interest rates are pushing investment toward low-risk, short-payback projects (domestic renewables, grids, LNG), while less mature technologies like offshore wind and clean hydrogen face headwinds.
Summary:
The podcast discusses the 16th annual Energy Transition Index from the World Economic Forum, which assesses 120 countries on system performance (sustainability, equity, security) and transition readiness. While clean energy investment and capacity are at record highs, transition readiness has declined for the first time due to policy instability and infrastructure bottlenecks, particularly grid constraints. The current geopolitical crisis, exemplified by tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, has heightened focus on energy security, accelerating efforts to diversify supply and localize production.
China, through its rapid adoption of solar and electric vehicles, feels insulated from the crisis, as domestic renewables reduce oil import dependence. However, experts note a dichotomy: short-term shocks may increase fossil fuel use, but long-term, security concerns could drive renewables and electrification. Alternatively, if new fossil fuel sources outside the Middle East come online, oil and gas prices could drop, undermining climate goals.
Investment is currently shifting toward low-risk, short-payback projects, while high interest rates and uncertainty hinder advanced technologies like offshore wind and hydrogen. The episode underscores that sustained policy support is crucial to maintain decarbonization momentum amid geopolitical and market volatility.
FAQs
The ETI is an annual benchmark from the World Economic Forum that assesses 120 countries on their energy transition, defined by system performance (sustainability, equity, and security) and readiness (policy, finance, innovation, infrastructure).
Short-term, it may increase oil, gas, and coal use; long-term, it could accelerate renewables and electrification as countries prioritize energy security and diversify supply.
It declined due to weaker policy stability and infrastructure bottlenecks, such as grid constraints, which hinder the integration of clean energy technologies.
China's massive investments in renewables, solar, energy storage, and electric vehicles have reduced its reliance on imported oil, making it less vulnerable to supply disruptions.
Short-term, shocks boost fossil fuel use; long-term, the focus on security can drive renewables and electrification, though new fossil fuel investments may also emerge.
They favor projects with short paybacks, low regulatory risk, and energy security benefits, like domestic renewables and grids, while avoiding capital-intensive technologies like offshore wind or hydrogen.
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