⏰ A Data-Driven Cheat Sheet For Weekly Winners

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underdog streets a two-time dog bowl qualifier it is of course Chad Mashki and he's been hard at work in the lab reviewing data for weekly winners so we're going to dig into some of his findings there naturally we'll do a draft but be prepared for the weekly winners alpha that's what's coming at you today here on off and on the clock John all right here we go here we go we got Nez uh back in the saddle after our ship chasing weekend we got John broadcasting from a new setup here John you don't do too many shows away from your normal battle station no I feel lost without the logs beside me you know the the beautiful stumps that everybody's been raving about but uh yeah we got to play a road game today but I couldn't miss this I couldn't miss this after uh Pete crowns a new quant uh a new quant emerges a day later um yeah I don't know I don't know about this uh I realized to it now this has become a recurring bit where Eggers earns a banner on the previous show and then it's naturally uh or it stays up here this one says do you feel punished Eggers I'm sure we'll hit a new one today uh Nez have you recovered from uh from the previous show I'm sure we'll hit a new one today uh Nez have you recovered from uh from the previous show I'm sure we'll hit a new one today uh Nez have you recovered from uh from our weekend in Austin yeah yeah I think my voice is like slowly uh coming back but got a great night's sleep in my own bed for like the first time in over a week because I was gone for the week prior uh hopped on a quick stream with PPR Tyler to to uh get my bearings once again kind of talked about some uh some of the trip there but yeah no no I'm feeling good and I've been just going crazy with the drafts because my wife is now out of town we did like a quick like you know clap hands and I'm like I'm gonna do it again I'm gonna do it again I'm gonna do it again see you later uh and passing you know ships passing in the night and uh so with her not here it's just been draft city like it's having so much fun what about you Chad our guest of honor today has it been data city or draft city or both for you uh it's been a combination of both so I took off until like June is when I hopped in so I never get in early early at all I actually was a so trying to max BBM uh weekly winners and the limb so trying to really like cram those in with three kids and the coaching baseball it's been hard but the slows have been uh where I've been living for the most part except last night I hopped in a couple limbs and I saw Nez in there with me so yeah there you go yeah we did we did get the official PSA uh from Michael Dubner who had two days kind of last call if you really want to make sure that the majority of your drafts are done before the clock shortened I believe that's happening around August 20th so yeah if you are able to sit on the clock uh all the time then maybe those shortened clocks don't bother you if they do uh consider this one of your final warnings to pile into the slow drafts and maintain your sanity and mental health in late August yeah Pete in completely unrelated news if anybody wants to draft with me I'm in the next 10 BBM slows wow BBM slows there you go I got like 30 slow puppies left so I've been like doing a good job of like slowly knocking those out so I'm not in not in hell there but uh I had to get that slow draft puppy max with 100k to first yeah well and last night I hopped in like the next 15 limbs and saw every single one of them filled to like seven and then I'm like I'm just gonna go out because it's all the same people this is not the time to be doing slow limbs yeah Dubner put out the bat signal for like every sharp to enter these slow drafts so uh yeah I'm trying to do fast only for a limb like for that reason I'd rather see that out of 12 than 7 and 9 out of 12 see this is this is how this is probably the sharpest thing I've done I had to front run the Dubner announcement I went back and found his tweet from last year this was about three or four weeks ago I did the math I knew we had an extra year and then I timed it and I was like I'm gonna do it again I'm gonna do it again I'm gonna do it again I timed it where I did you know shout out to my my friend Claude to help me with the uh the exact whole processing of it but I was like you do 15 slows on Monday Thursday these subsequent ones so I think I got a lot of randoms in mine uh and now I think I'm just gonna leave my last 15 or so to do do fast in in August here um but Chad so what is this um obviously you always like to uh to grind these games big in the daily streets what got you fixated on weekly winners specifically this year yeah well the first year it came out I threw in like 75 entries or whatnot made a little bit of money off of it um like the format and just liked how it helped with the bankroll too just getting paid out a little bit throughout the year and uh second year so in 2024 kind of the same thing I little little bit of profitable on it last year obviously had a much uh better year winning in a week for the dog bowl as well so hitting both of those back to back was insane um but I just have always felt like there's a little bit of uh untapped edge on weekly winners with uh how people draft it how everyone kind of thinks and is applying some best ball principles without like thinking through that it's 17 different weeks on here that's one continuous roster and how do you lean in the best on it and I mean even if you take away my win last year I was still profitable in weekly winners so I I and I ran through the numbers and of the Max drafters only two percent of people who Max if you take away their win were profitable right I'm sorry take away their highest scoring win were profitable last year so that's not two only two percent of drafters are profitable but that's if you pull everyone's top win away from them so it was this is kind of yeah this is the old uh taking the 80-yard run away from Derek Henry and he's still uh plus after contact here yeah yeah just trying to make sure that like because anyone can get lucky for one week right so that that and that's part of what draws people into these games and like with weekly winners you have 17 chances just off of one entry to get lucky with it so it it was fun so I was like I think there's an edge here let's go and try and dive in with the data and my dad also has made that a lot easier to be able to uh synthesize get the data and um yeah have have some of the answers hopefully and I know it's one sample but it's split up 17 weeks um so I've got a lot of data uh Pete that we've got here that we can go through and kind of recap what happened last year and then how do you apply it this year because that's really like the big question is like the draft landscape has changed everyone's pushing running backs up so my team that uh had four running backs in the first four rounds and they were four pretty much top 15 running backs that's not really uh possible but um how do we now apply the same principles can can you do a little I I bet one question for people right and we kind of know this you know there's a resistance to different formats than what we're all used to people want the puppy 19 they want to just have that comfort food be able to draft exactly the same exactly how they normally draft without thinking it's the same reason people push back on super flex it's like ah I like it but it requires a lot extra brain power being realistic Chad what would you say like what level of attention do you need to do a weekly winners draft well do you need tools do you need to be staring at schedule grid stuff like I think for people who maybe are hesitant to get in what do you think the kind of bar is that you need to clear to do this well I actually think it's probably less than some of the others you don't really need to worry too much about correlation yeah stacking teammates and stacking bi-weeks are two pretty easy cheat codes to have on there and you're just going for ceiling you don't need to worry about uh week to week you can take zeros in weekly winners because and boy do I do that yeah yeah so going for that ceiling matters a whole lot more and then you're just hoping to get lucky that the ceilings hit in one week and that's that is what it is but you can uh construct a bunch of rosters especially if you have a portfolio of them where it makes it a lot more likely that one's going to break through here or there because you get like i said you've got 17 chances at it so but yeah i think that barrier is a lot lower and are there you know one of the things that i do think people find attractive about weekly winners it's like oh you want to play to win the first quarter of the season or you want to optimize for a few specific weeks like do you think that is a viable way to approach it to like hyper fixate on a section of the contest and try to win that or do you think just trying to build really strong teams on the whole is the best way to approach it yeah i think just trying to build strong teams on the whole is the best way to approach it it's impossible for me to tell what someone's strategy is if they're targeting a specific week as i'm uh like going through the data like i don't know hey this uh john decided to target week four because um uh it would have been week seven or whatever bangles and bears were playing against i have no idea on that on you on how you go about targeting but the uh divisional games if you can stack those you get two shots at runbacks because there is a little bit of correlation with it but there's less because you're just going for the absolute ceilings here so there's actually less uh game correlation in here than you'll get in a vr or obviously in a dog bowl as well gotcha uh does it make sense do you guys have any other kind of table setting questions for chad before we get you know more into the hardcore data here the one that's been going through my head right now is did you apply one isolated strategy to the entirety of your lineups last year i didn't but i was more running back heavy in uh weekly winners than i was in my overall portfolio so like i was already leaning into that because you need those ceiling weeks from from running backs to get there so um looking back like i could have uh and it's always easier hindsight leaned into it even if you're not looking back like i could have uh and it's always easier hindsight leaned into it even more than i did and i'm leaning into it more this year but if you think the pendulum is going to swing back the other way because it always does and we've been in a uh non-running back injury uh landscape here for a while then some of this you'll take with a grain of salt and where we draw the lines on hey what running back has a ceiling or doesn't that's still going to be personal opinion with a lot of this stuff too mm-hmm yeah because we were when we did our show i don't know what did we do maybe a couple months ago we did a weekly winner show and we were looking at some of those winning lineups and i think one of the surprising things and you mentioned this looking for ceiling it it's like it was this interesting dynamic where you did need the like weekly league winners the guys that were the highest scoring like those are going to be populated and represented but then it was like just having some floor some guys scoring 10 to 11 points to just kind of raise that up and actually realize the benefit of the new player and then you're like oh my god i'm going to win this game it does kind of again start to mess with your brain of like yeah you need the spikes but you also need like the non-zeros to make sure you can enjoy the spikes even being on your roster yeah you'll i'll just say yeah you're gonna see it in the later slides of the data there that i was looking through this morning like there was week nine needed six points to get it done like week 12 needed eight points to get it done like you don't need ceiling from every slot yeah yeah it's just getting that right combination with it and then the other thing and i don't remember if it is in that deck or not the the way that onesies work too right with qb and tight end if someone runs away with it you uh especially tight end you needed that guy uh a lot more than if uh if it's relatively flat so well i do have your slides up here you're welcome to tell me i can easily toggle to a specific slide number we can back up the slides and we can back up the slides and we can bounce around we can go in order you are the captain here chad well um sure i mean if you want to go to the next slide it is my team that i had on there so kind of just was starting it with this where i started four running backs and it is i mean obviously you are drafting someone who will not hit your starting lineup when you start the draft with four running backs because we can only play three of them but i did this a few times last year and i've done it even more this year you are giving yourself a shot at that high ceiling because there are there's no running back later um last year that really could hit this ceiling like a 30 point ceiling even giovante rico got there a couple of weeks when chuba was out um but that is like the one off so giving yourself a better chance at hitting the ceiling together is why i went this way i did get lucky where cook was falling this was uh when the contract situation was going on with it jesus christ so cook fell here but uh took took advantage of that and i followed up with those receivers who didn't even hit the lineup um on here and you can see my round 16 17 18 all hit my lineup on here so it's just kind of getting a lot of those no receiver really ran away with it troy franklin was wide receiver one on the week and got him in the 16th round so you've got that mixed with the spiking 30-point running backs and it was going to be a good week on here so you got uh yeah 198 and a half and my third qb also played with dan jones and it's weird that i've got daniel jones jt and pittman all in here but there is a lot of correlation with the teams at one um even if they didn't hit the lineup all pieces of it they are going um going with players and quarterbacks that then hit the ceiling because it is help driving it good offensive environment is good for everyone on the team propel fitness water with gatorade electrolytes zero sugar and vitamins propel hydrates better than water to help you get the most out of your workout and get back to your best self what propels you propel with gatorade electrolytes this episode is brought to you by michelob ultra even if you're a pro or just in it for fun the moment you play for a michelob ultra everything changes the focus sharpens the game gets real every point every move suddenly means something more because a superior light beer is on the line superior is worth playing for michelob superior light beer find it near you at michelob ultra.com enjoy responsibly copyright 2026 anheuser-busch michelob ultra light beer st louis missouri doesn't this look like seeing the uh the winning pieces that hit the lineup doesn't this feel like a a br bank you have the high-end running backs who go nuke you have like a cheaper tight end and then you have the skinny stack uh going a little undrafted you know your jones pittman there whatever i mean these are like those we are kind of used to pulling in these contests to get it done and just those 30-point weeks are unavoidable you have to have them to win a contest on those weeks yeah you're absolutely right man the the parallels are really funny this this team this team is just like nasty as heck man like this was such a good team uh and like didn't even need bucky and if bucky would have been healthy like this team probably would have won again at some point but the pickens olabe like giga smash with just like four great running backs i mean yeah that's just you're you're gonna win money there was this team uh did it have any other caches obviously this was the big one but like that said this is a this is a juggernaut nothing like noteworthy because weekly winners are so top heavy that it did not really spike up there again it cashed i think two other weeks if i remember right but close close to min caches so which again i mean that's like the humbling portion of this right we're looking at this like that said you see pickens and a lava like the nutted five six there just absolute smashes at running back you know jonathan taylor cook both what finished i think top six top seven on the year and running back scoring and it's like without this week this team has just a couple of min caches that's that's not the best selling point for this contest but it's the reality of the situation it's why we need to be uh methodical with it you know what i mean like hey it's really hard so like let's let's look chris rodriguez never wrong just early yeah the uh the chris rodriguez bro is not liking this point two they see uh here from week from week eight cia sucks guys don't take them all right so yeah so you got some takeaways here uh from the win what should uh people be well to emulate this was talking about my like portfolio overall okay because acknowledging right because anyone can spike a single week so but why would you listen to me on on here so i kind of hit that top top of the show where i've been profitable all three of the years so far but even take away that last year i was still plus 13 almost 14 on roi maxing it so um then just kind of some summaries on there and then only seven out of 175 drafters i was a little off of my percent uh the two percent was something else i don't remember what it was but if you remove their best uh week seven out of 175 were uh still profitable so um but yeah the next slide is kind of the running back centric slide that uh talks about roi on here and when you take your first running back is a green line second running backs the blue third being the yellow and fourth fourth running back being the red you can see there was a massive tilt to taking those running backs early for roi on here including a lot of runners uh were loaded up on the running backs early on and you can just see it kind of levels out with a couple of spikes one giovante and one rico later on if you're taking it so you can almost see some of these players essentially where they sat in adp but without that early on taking those running backs got you your roi and i did control too for like uh the fact that it's so top heavy so even if you capped every uh the winning payouts or any payout over a thousand it still holds where this is the right strategy to take those running backs early so the irony in conversations uh around the running back dead zone for three straight years and then just seeing where the spikes and smashes come from in this contest and it being pinpointed to what we would have quintessentially called the dead zone of the past yeah it but i think it also speaks to right like i'm guessing what's happening here and with why zero rb is more viable in say traditional formats is because just getting the backup running back who's now capable of scoring 15 16 points then supercharges the rest of the team allows you to have the high end wide receivers that are going for 25 plus but in this contest like even hitting on a zero rb pick it does you no good if like let's say bill last year did what he did down the stretch like for an extended period of time but if he's only averaging 15 to 20 points a game and not getting the 30 plus point games like the guys here who get that volume and because part of the dead zone is from chasing projectable volume you're going to have projectable volume hits to score 30 points you need to be touching the ball 20 times and occasionally you know josh jay is going to be touching the ball 20 times and occasionally you know josh jay is going to be touching the ball 20 times and occasionally you know josh jay is going to josh jacobs does that over and over again i mean at least that's how i'm kind of processing this data yeah it's the opportunity cost right when you take that receiver and you lock yourself out of one of these ceiling uh ceiling ones even if they hit their ceiling it's not going to be as high and the later receivers uh generally unless you hit giovante or rico have the same ceiling outcome or even median with it uh if you put just shoot enough shots out at it because like that last one i had eight uh wide receivers or something like that and my last two is what hit my lineup so yeah yeah yeah so that's the opportunity cost it's not something we talk enough about here and that opportunity cost in weekly winners way different than it is a normal best ball right yeah and then do you think that spike here for the the audio listeners were looking at a chart team roi by round each running back was drafted and it's this uh what is that is that round five between round four and five there plus 488 percent is that like do you think represents like the cliff of where the running backs who are capable of going for 30 plus really falls off it does and it it hits that dead zone running back right so a lot of this was driven by if you got one of the top 15 ish running backs and it was a lot more doable you could get four top 15 running backs uh not all the time obviously but you could a little bit last year this year it's going to be a lot harder to do that so it is where you've got that drop off essentially into the the guys who are still projectable to get volume but they don't have the uh ceiling outcomes available to them and then it's kind of funny how that lines up with even this year's adp right because we do have that string of running backs going in round five where we're all kind of doing that dance of do these guys have the ability to go 30 and we're doing it with henderson and judkins and tootin we're saying like can deandre swift still do it here it is kind of funny where even the market is saying all right this is last call for the guys who could realistically do it that's funny that's exactly what i'm looking at right now pete and like just saying how much of this right now is a structural dynamic and how much of this is just the landscape of last year specifically is where that spike came from or is this repeatable yup um anything else here chad or should we go to an another slide yeah i want to go to the next one um and that can kind of show put names to this on who supplied this bike so who gave a top three week at qb or tight end here because it's the onesies like i mentioned earlier when they go off they go off and you need them so you've got josh allen who was going round two on there and then dac and drake may both were got top three weeks four different times on there and way different cost on it so that's the other thing like when um looking at it like dac was a much better pick than josh allen for weekly winners on here just because of the fact they both spiked the same number of times but you could get one of those ceiling running backs or even an alpha receiver right in round two instead of josh allen um josh allen i think if i remember right is on three of the winning teams though too so like when he went off he went off so it is trying to figure out what is most important to you there so uh tight end is also like mcbride and bowers and when you take into account that bowers uh was injured most of the year and then missed some games the fact that those two are running away with it second and third round they're still there this year they're they are still good picks yeah i mean man the mcbride one right there that like that's the case for elite tight end in a nutshell uh do you know anything about the elite tight end do you know how many of because this is the amount of times he finished top three on the week do you know how many times he was in the winning lineup top of my head i do not on mcbride i think he crashed there once and that's the other thing that i tried to do with this analysis too it's not just the winning winning lineup right because like it's there's so much luck when you're top talking when you're in the point top 0.1 percent or 0.5 percent so i don't recall top of my head but i do think he hit it hit it at least once i don't see him in the oh i guess this is just the the stack partners that you listed not the entirety of the winning lineups he wasn't listed as a stack partner which makes sense because nobody drafted brissette because that's then another interesting conversation where i guess it's um at most other positions like finishing top three uh does like speak to spike could almost argue with tight end that it almost might speak to floor uh a little bit as well just because it's such a low scoring position which then becomes interesting with like where where does this and maybe it's on another slide but where do you fall on elite tight end you know for this year because we do have a pretty clear demarcation with with top three guys are are you in on those guys for this contest um to a certain degree i am it depends if who else is on the board right so mcbride yes i'm still in on him bowers is going just a little bit ahead of him and it depends on which running backs are still there um if they're all gone then i'll take bowers and just and um fill a running back later with it but i do think that they still have that ceiling um and i was just looking i don't see mcbride in a one of the top lineups uh last year part of that is his highest scoring week was also kyle pitts 40 burger that he put up so that's the other part like he he was top three with a 35 34 point something but he got out done by pitts like so that that is part of what you are also banking on when you do one of these elites is that nobody else spikes from that same position yep yep uh all right let's see here up next we have where each round's picks should go explain to us this uh heat map we're looking at yeah so looking at last year's results and how like the top one percent like i said i like to broaden it out versus just the winners on here and you can see it kind of um shows you what was successful early running back uh you've got mcbride in there on your top one percent uh for round three and tight end then that receiver pocket and that's what i've been trying to hit a lot of because they still have a ceiling uh the receivers in round four through seven give or take so they can still spike up there with uh close enough to uh chase or puka or jsn not quite the same but getting those running backs to pair with them uh helps and then the qb's later this is probably going to be different when we talk about how we apply it this year with the changing landscape and that's what i've seen in best ball too right because like goff stafford some of those guys have pushed way up where they were in the green zone here at stafford state and they've been even way further back on on here but you're talking about a lot of the guys caleb uh that pushed up to get that top one percent rate um and then the tight ends so a lot of this meta is what we were talking about last year with the different pockets and seeing them so yep um you guys have any thoughts on no i'm just taking this all in i know we've got a lot to go through so i just want to like you know let chad do his thing i do have some thoughts but i think when we get into a draft it's more like forward thinking yeah i'm building things in reverse right now like i'm putting names to where those percentile outcomes are and i'm being like okay now i get waddle in the fourth year okay that's good and like i'm building a team in my mind with these spikes so what i'm thinking about just so i guess just like actually speak here is that uh i i think last year like this is what we're doing this year and they're both of these metas are correct it's just there were fewer people going as hard as they could and i think that's what we're doing this year needed to go last year. on this rb heavy meta you saw with the eliminator too i was like holy crap man like nobody's playing the eliminator correctly and it's not like i made a bunch of money but it was uh it's like man no i don't think people really understand what they're doing and they weren't and it was the same thing with super flex you know like that rb like meta just wasn't caught up and now that we are doing it i think it opens up new pockets of value but um i'm sure chad you have your own thoughts and whatnot on on on that take yeah well it it definitely does and pete if you go to the next one i yeah talk a little bit about the lessons that were learned um more on the qb side on here but also the change in adp that we've got because that's a positional rank for running back so you can see the green line now is where it is pushed up versus like and this is running back one or running back 12 on there so they are definitely going earlier so it makes it harder and so i titled the slide that it they have learned the lesson because we learned the lesson on the running back side but going over to the onesies right lamar i've got all the uh qbs from last year there's different reasons the ones who failed like lamar i mean he was going ahead of josh allen last year he's now the fourth to fifth round here jayden daniels hurts burrow they have all slid my homes obviously has a different reason that he's uh slid with the acl but it's starting to creep back up and then the guys who hit last year it'd be drake may dak and caleb they have pushed way up almost in front of some of these guys that we thought of as uh elite last year so they are um they are been corrected on some of this repricing but i think now to a point where they have become values with how everything has changed around here propel fitness water with gatorade electrolytes zero sugar and vitamins propel hydrates better than water to help you get the most out of your workout and get back to your best self what propels you propel with gatorade electrolytes this episode is brought to you by mickelobe ultra even if you're a pro or just in it for fun the moment you play for a mickelobe ultra everything changes the focus sharpens the game gets real every point every move suddenly means something more because a superior light beer is on the line superior is worth playing for mickelobe ultra superior light beer find it near you at mickelobeultra.com enjoy responsibly copyright 2026 anheuser-busch mickelobe ultra light beer st louis missouri yeah i fully agree especially seeing your chart man like round five was like a really sweet spot for the quarterbacks which is like traditionally that like that that you know okay qb1's gone you know what we have today essentially is just like this massive pocket of elites that are like ambiguously priced when you know yeah you can you can take your shots there uh it's a lot it's a lot of fun and the other thing i'm seeing too is like with this running back chart like we are now drafting those round four running backs last year these are actually around five running backs you know and like based on how you like read this chart and to me it's like so were those round four running backs good because you just needed a running back through four or like are we like are we are we pushing up landmines you know i think it's a it's an interesting uh you know thought yeah good points nez i i really like how chad in the chat put it there that it's just it's never been a better time to draft elite quarterbacks not named josh allen yep those are some of my highest owned players in the portfolio regardless of format so the i'm i'm sure we're probably getting to this but how does um how do you think about stacking with those elite quarterbacks if you do take the plunge are you betting on the rushing you know specifically for these top four here alan lamar daniels hurts or are you still looking for that correlated element to you know reduce the number of things you have to get right in the lineup i mean i'm looking for the rushing but i will still stack uh every single one of them so i mean lamar and zay is fun because if they gets there lamar is likely to get there as well if he adds anything rushing wise um and then you still have the back stack but andrews to take care of two onesie positions on there uh jayden is interesting because you've got terry and then yes you have chig but then it's kind of uh can you get ahead of it and stack is it digs who's gonna end up there i i don't know but if it is that's that's not a bad way to play it and just hope that you get ahead of that minus 580 this morning i saw really okay yeah so so i mean that's a fun one that i have done uh multiple times with it where it's not really a teammate that i'm stacking and no tools gonna do that because they're not projecting that that happens but i'm i'm still gonna lean into it as i go through uh burrows an obvious stack uh partner and i don't care if it's chase or higgins or gaseki or brown right all of them can catch passes with it so and burrow can throw to five touchdowns to five different guys so yep all right next we have here it takes around 200 to matter this is the amount of points you will likely need to crack uh to win one of these weeks yep yep so it ranged from 183 to 240 and john sorry go ahead no no no no i was just saying that it just sounds like such a massive number on the surface with how top heavy these are because if you go back and you look at your bbm portfolios and stuff like that i mean maybe you're not going to be able to win one of these weeks maybe you had one or two teams get to 200 once last year in 150 portfolio which i mean makes sense right because right should should should be hard to hit this um the interesting part to me uh was that it didn't matter the buy week so it's not like it's easier uh one of the weeks where there are six teams on by with it that did not really have an effect and part of that makes sense because it is just ceiling outcomes so you still have 186 000 teams on here so there's still going to be a lot that are full full teams for that that range uh the lowest winner being that 183 week 13 uh that's thanksgiving week so everyone played uh but there are a lot of short weeks that week so that was interesting to you i don't know that it's a usable takeaway but it just something i noticed with that so that 240 everything just went crazy and i think that was t law just to put skip ahead and put a little context to that the week 13 stack that one was jordan love to don tavy and wicks who both had 25 fantasy points and then the 240 week like the big outlier one was t law to travis etn also had travis hunter on that team but wasn't playing but 44 for trevor lawrence to 30 from etn really swung things like 75 points between a running back and your quarterback yeah it just can get bonkers like that but generally you don't need that that much so um yeah and i just this is like for the different uh percentiles sorry and not saying that this isn't interesting but they're like you can't optimize for like how many points you need it's just kind of giving you the framework of uh you're going to need to score a shit ton of points to uh to make this contest yeah i don't know i all i saw was don tavian uh wicks uh weekly winners winner there you go there you go um next slide we got here uh stack the buys stack the quarterback what are we looking at here yeah um the roi goes up if you are stacking buys if you've got three or more players who share a buy um it goes up and every single step of the way roi actually goes up on it and then stacking the quarterback uh kind of the same they have principles right because obviously if you're stacking your quarterback you are stacking your buy weeks on there too but if you go just even beyond the one single team and stack the buy weeks that's good there is a point where people over stack or reach too much and lose value with it too so that's something to weigh as you're doing it uh so it's not going to be like hey i'm just gonna my first pick is a week six buy i'm only going to draft week six players that's a bad way to do it but all else being said i'm going to go ahead and start the game and i'm going to equal use it as a tiebreaker so and then yeah 16 out of the 17 winners had a qb stacked with their teammate on their roster so the only one that didn't was a naked josh allen man maybe i'm missing something or clearly not smart enough but this big of a jump for top one percent rate for stacking a buy week because to me isn't the advantage of stacking a buy week spread out across the 16 other or whatever the other non-buy weeks isn't concentrated on a specific week and yet it's resulting in a top one percent rate for a specific week well it means that team hit a top one percent week in one of the other 16 weeks but still that's like that big of a jump is surprising to me yeah so if you want a top one percent and give yourself a chance it's a good way to kind of just lean into the smaller edges and i did that a lot last year okay i mean to put because it's it's almost like when we talk about week 17 correlation and we've all kind of calibrated to the point where it's like yeah it's something you want to do it's a breaker, to what extent would you, would you sacrifice a half round of ADP value to stack a bi-week? Would you sacrifice a full round? Like how far is that bi-week in this, you know, percentage increase worth it to you? It depends where you are in the draft too, right? Like later in the draft, I'll sacrifice more with it. I've historically been an ADP hound and like a value hound with it. So I will stick to it a little bit more, but if I've got a player take and I like someone that could make me do a round and a half early with it. So it, it's a hard thing to say exactly the amount. I didn't put this in here, but a lot of the positive ROI had positive ADP value too. So it's, it is that like, how do you weigh the two? And that's going to vary for, um, it's going to vary for what your comfort level is and what your player takes are. So yeah. That's an unscientific answer to a lot of data. So there's, there's two things that I'm thinking about right now. I'm looking at bi-weeks right now that have divisional correlation as well. So stacking Rams and Seahawks is one that kind of just jumps out week 11. You can put those together. Plus you get two games versus each other. Plus those were shootout games last year. So maybe there's something there and then chat in the chat, bringing up results in a lot of unique roster constructions. I, I could argue the inverse as well, that this doesn't result in unique rosters because it could have in the past and everybody was building with the bi-weeks incorrectly and building like normal style teams in this contest. It's actually going to layer combos. Once this becomes common knowledge, it's going to layer combos less unique because there's going to be more overlap. Yeah. And, and, uh, well said. And I, and I know Chad, uh, has like some, uh, uniqueness data in terms of like it mattering or not for like certain players. So excited to get to that. The one card that I'm like looking at right now that I am absolutely like beaming because I had this take and, and the father of weekly weekly winners, Hayden Winks disagreed with me. So the bottom, the bottom, the bottom left 11 and a half percent to 16.4%, the top 1% rate from somebody that has zero pass catchers all the way to three plus. I told you, man, you got to just like throw bullets at that team and then figure the rest out. The, the, the, the counter was, Oh, just do a skinny stack. Cause those guys aren't going to hit your lineup. But like, if that quarterback goes off, you want to have all these other options to me, that just like makes so much sense. And I'm just very glad to see that validated. And just the ROI difference is crazy there. You saw it in Chad's lineup with the Colts stuff. I know the thing we didn't talk about in my line. I had, uh, Troy Franklin and, and Pat Bryant, right. And it wasn't even staff, right. The, the thought is right. That Denver is going to, uh, score points. I want one of the two, 10 of these players aren't going to hit your lineup anyway. Right. So like give yourself the most shots at a, uh, yeah, a narrower outcome. But the thing you're going for is Denver is going to, it was Denver Dallas that week. Denver is going to put up a lot of points against Denver. That's a bad Dallas defense where it hits. If it hits one of those two, that's good for me. If it goes to Sutton, um, that's so well. Well, and it goes back to the format differences, right? Like if you told someone you could get one mega hit in the late rounds, but it, let's just say it would cost you three other zeros around it. Um, you might not even take that bet. Just knowing, man, if I'm taking three zeros over and over through the pods, like I might be, I might be toast, but if you make that, you know, that devil's trade off in this kind of, you'll do that every single time. Like give me the year zeros for the one mega hit that I can roll into this super top heavy contest. Yeah. We're going to pivot our, uh, better in basketball mindset to better in weekly winners. Like, cause it's isolated weeks, isolated spikes. Yeah, exactly. And again, it is crazy. Like, you know, across all of these formats, how stacking remains a critical component, obviously how you do it. I would be curious, Chad, on some of the ROI and then kind of going back to what Nez was just saying. Cause the thing I always think about over stacking. Is what is the cost, right? Like if I'm doing three or four late round things, I'm more willing to over stack, but say you use that Bengals example and it's like you have chase and Higgins and, and all of those guys Brown up there, then what you need from them seems a little trickier. I'd be curious to know how the ROI changes by amount of capital spent. It's a good question. I do not know. I will, but I'll, I'll try and figure it out and send it over your way so you can share it with everyone too. So, yeah, you just came here to do a casual podcast and now you have homework. I made this deck a week or so ago, sent it to Nez and I've just been pulling on threads since then too. So homework's a good thing. Yes. All right. Same mechanism, earlier decision point. Is this kind of like a little decision tree here for, for the draft and things to be about? It's kind of like, how do we put this into play in 2022? Yeah. So the draft is going to be in 2026 now that we've got the different prices for everyone with everyone pushing up. So it breaks it out kind of by rounds here. So rounds one and two, trying to get those ceiling backs immediately. The top 12 is always going to be gone essentially by pick 24 this year, where last year it wasn't always gone. The turn tends to be one of the better spots that you can be. So the back half of the board to make sure that you get these ceiling backs early, the third part is it makes it harder on the two, three turn. Cause every once in a while you'll get one that falls or you might like somebody better who's RB 14 right now. Right. So but first two, first two rounds, I'm generally taking two running backs there, unless there's a massive faller on, on this. So that goes back to your question earlier about elite tight end and Bowers. That's why I don't have much Bowers, but I do have a fair amount of McBride on here. So that's where round three. It says running back 13 through 18. It is a ceiling price. We are paying for them, but if you think they've got that spike profile that can get up there, it's not just a play on volume. Go ahead and take them if you like it or take one of those receivers or McBride, because he's the one guy hit eight weeks as a top three that didn't really get repriced here. So Speaker 2 : I guess I solved weekly winners right now. It's it's CMC it's H and it's McBride. And then you take a waddle and then tootin game over. Speaker 1 : So you're saying that due to Chad's data, you solved weekly. Speaker 2 : Yes, I personally solved. I put in the hard man hours to solve this with Chad's data. Speaker 1 : Yeah. What would you say looking at these kind of whatever guardrails, would you say, what is the market getting wrong? Speaker 2 : Um, via ADP right now that you see in weekly winners, Speaker 1 : I think, uh, we're still drafting some of that dead zone running back the, the running backs who do not have the ability to really, truly spike in there. And it's just because the volume that we're playing on it, uh, in that round, um, five and six, I don't love like someone Judkins probably does have some of that, uh, spiking that offense. I just think it's going to be so bad. So I'm. Speaker 2 : I'm passing over Judkins most of the time here on it, because that's kind of, to me, a volume play generally, because how many times is he going to get three touchdowns in a game? And that might be what you need for him to spike into the thirties, especially with Dylan Sampson there, uh, taking a lot of the receiving work potentially on it. So I still think we are drafting that type of a profile a little bit too much and not necessarily, um, the pivoting at that point. Speaker 3 : Yeah. Speaker 2 : Yeah. Speaker 3 : A receiver in that neighborhood a lot of times can put up something similar to what Judkins can. Speaker 2 : Yeah. The fifth 50 through 76 ADP that I'm looking at right now that Judkins, you know, Warren Stevenson, Chuba Pollard, like those guys that are propped up to be people's are before, instead of taking the swing on carnal Tate QJ Parker, Washington, Brian Thomas, Rome. Speaker 3 : Guys like that who can give you 25 burgers. Speaker 2 : Yeah. And there's a couple of guys sprinkled in, in that range that I like, like Travion is going to be a guy who I can see could see spiking. I don't really like remandre in this format. So generally in best ball, I've been remandre. Uh, I had a lot more remandre at price than Travion too. So it's, it is the different format. I'm really looking for that, uh, spike outcome. unfocused foggy you might be dehydrated Gatorade zero powders have been scientifically designed to help improve hydration balance in the body with a clinically proven electrolyte blend and no artificial colors or flavors great tasting hydration no matter where you're going shop now online or at retailers nationwide Gatorade hydrates better than water is it in you symptoms noted are signs of mild to moderate dehydration consult a health care professional if symptoms persist this episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra even if you're a pro or just in it for fun the moment you play for a Michelob Ultra, everything changes. The focus sharpens. The game gets real. Every point, every move suddenly means something more because a superior light beer is on the line. Superior is worth playing for. Michelob Ultra Superior Light Beer. Find it near you at MichelobUltra.com. Enjoy responsibly. Copyright 2026 Anheuser-Busch. Michelob Ultra Light Beer, St. Louis, Missouri. Yup. And then it's like what? The more you slide down the draft board, do you loosen that up a little bit? Or like are the Jacoby Myers, Khalil Shakirs of the world, are those off your board in this format? Those guys are fine at receiver because, I mean, I really want that running back spike. And, I mean, Franklin, or not Franklin, Malik Washington hit my lineup with an 11.6. Right. Shakir can do that, like without it. He can do that in his sleep most often. He's not going to get you 18, but. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, because even like. Four for 40 and one is findable. Yup. Yup. Right. That makes sense. So, and that's why the later rounds, I'm taking a lot of those receivers who kind of have that projectable, not volume, projectable role in the offense. There we go. Yup. So, this next slide, we had a question from Blake here. You may discuss this, but what are the best, the best structures? We do have a slide here titled structure beats uniqueness. John down bad with this title. What are we looking at here? So this one, it didn't necessarily lean into like three quarterback, five running back seven receiver being the optimal way to go on it. But it was not scrolling down. So Pete, you're kind of down bad on this one too. So 96% of. People drafted in the top 20 were drafted in over 50% of drafts. So, I mean, we are drafting, what is it? 218 people in here. So it is really hard to get a scroll that is going to crack a top eight in a lineup through here. Not impossible, obviously, but it's hard. If this analysis was done, the Kyron and Puka year, I mean, that number is going to be completely different. So take, take it all with a grain of salt on here. Um, but Kyron and Puka are. Yeah. Unicorns in, in, uh, data, just in John or they're outliers with it. So guys, hear me out, hear me out. Badge Rose brawl, weekly winners there. You could get some scrolls. Yeah, there we go. Oh man, John, that's, that's, that was good. That was Friday, 93 bad bros, brawl, weekly winners, all one tournament name. With dashes between every word. Yeah. Uh, did you hear that new me? I hope you're taking, taking some notes down there. Um, Oh, what? We got an appendix. Holy shit. You do what you want with this one, or we can hop into a draft. So, uh, is there anything else in here? That's interesting. Um, I slide 22, I'd say. And this is like, do I have about 15? Look at this good stuff. Um, all right. Okay. You got some every weekly winners, quarterback stack in there. That's fun. Uh, slide 22, the lowest score at every slot by tier. That's cool. Yeah. Talk us through this one. So this one, I broke down all of the positions and kind of what you needed to hit this. So like the one that really stood out to me was that QB, uh, a top 1% rate. Somebody got that there with zero from their QB and it was a week I won and it was because of the same three running backs I had. So he had. He had Purdy and I can't remember who the other quarterback was. Cause when I ran this and I get my friend, Claude gave me that answer. I'm like, there's no way that is correct. Right. Um, and it pulled the roster and it was so, uh, but you, you need minimum 16, 17 points from your quarterback to be a winner. Your RB one, the minimum score that it had was a 26. So you need that spike. Wow. Whereas wide receiver one is a 20.9. Right. So that can be found later the 26, it can happen, but I mean, you're just making a lot harder on yourself to not be taking those running backs early. Why is this guys? Why? Opportunity costs. Yeah. And it was just so tight. I mean, all the qualifiers on small sample size, it's a single year and I mean, running the top running backs mostly smashed last year. So wait, am I reading this right? So there was someone. Someone won a weekly winner's week with a 7.8 at quarterback. Uh, that was a top 0.1%. So 16.7, those pretty damn low. Yeah. True. Yeah. Oh, you're right. And 1%. Yeah. And tight end. I mean, a 9.7 was a winner flex and 8.6. That is weird to me. And like that you only needed an eight from one of your positions and you could still win. And wide receiver three. Wait. Am I seeing that RB is, does that mean that you could have a top 1% without what, by, by taking a zero. A zero at RB two got a top 0.1%. It probably was like a Josh Allen week or something and maybe even pits with a 40. So I think those were, I think my lineups represented all of those, just, just, just one RB two away from a, from a massive bank. I remember quite a few teams where I was like, what the hell happened here, man. Yeah. This. This week 10 winner is fascinating. So it was a three quarterback build that was triple stacked all three of them. And it was Anthony Richardson to Tyler Warren and Jonathan Taylor and Jonathan Taylor put up almost 50 that week. So it was a 48.1. So he lapped the field at RB one and then love to Wicks and Reed did nothing. And it was JJ McCarthy to Jalen Naylor and Jalen Naylor. Taylor had 20.9 fantasy points and JJ McCarthy had the 16.7 unbelievable nines up, baby. That is insane. Yeah. It is interesting. You know, you see it even like the week three, right? It's like Trey Tucker has that insane game for 36.9 and then you get the correlation with it with Gino Smith. I assume pretty cheap stack there that unlocks everything else for you. No. Pete, do you want to go? To the next slide? Yes. This one. 20 or 23? 20. So I tried to measure risers and fallers on here. So based on news and like neighbors is what really made me look at this in the last couple of days. So how does like it affect your ROI pre move post move? It was interesting here how it was hard because there wasn't a ton of data for early last year. It was really just. I mean, I think it was a lot of data. I think it was a lot of data. well we are hitting our on off and on the clock rug quota for the week what was it min three rugs per show yeah it's in the contract yep okay here we go uh let's see here six more yeah so hopefully uh yeah hopefully you guys got in the underflow there um what how many did you say are you doing slow drafts for these chad yeah yeah i'm doing a mixture with it so nice honestly it's probably going to come out about 50 50 i'm halfway done with the weekly winners drafts so nice let's see here all right we have the 102 uh that's a pretty good slot for us here yeah yeah we like this jonathan taylor let's do it we've seen the tweets i'm not gonna lie i've taken him at the two uh early on i'm not doing it anymore so some of the other analysis like the standard deviation with him and how spiky he is he fits this perfect i've i was taking him over cmc and i will very much listen to that argument that jt should go ahead to cmc in this format love it that that that is a really yeah it sounds like you're keeping some of the player specific analysis uh close to the vest here can't leak all the alpha but the cmc being a bit of a floor play with the thesis being the receptions in jt it's like we're all a little spooked on it but it's like if he hits it's the big plays it is and i mean how much time you got because we're already an hour into this if you want all the player takes oh i do yeah i want every i want the chad take every time we're on the clock is this bijan easily for you every time it's bijan yep yeah getting the 102 your decision is made for you so uh he famously just got paid to the day uh in case you missed it he did i am a little bit worried about how much his uh picture looks like the genie from aladdin but aside from that have you seen the new hair pete it's uh did the video where it looked like he calls for the ball when his hair flips up yeah yeah it's awesome uh chad one thing that i would be curious about and i'm sorry i didn't do this uh ahead of time is like i would love to know like like yes we know the total fantasy points i would love to know what kind of stat lines these running backs put up when they spike and how receiving dependent is it because that to me would change i think quite a bit about how about about the profile of backs that i like so you know i i would i'm gonna i'd like to look into that and see what the stat what the actual like stat lines are to learn about like the players themselves yeah um i don't have like more than vibes that i can tell you about it but like the week week eight one i could not believe how it was jt i think it was against tennessee he had 14 carries and put up 30 points on that one it because he broke off a 70-yard touchdown reception or whatever it was with that one so and that's where they ran away from them and i don't think he really played a ton in the fourth quarter if i remember right so like it it definitely can vary and opportunity i mean football is just such a random ass game right so right but i can look and see with uh how big receptions have played in with it are there any are there any other guys in the first few rounds that say you would be you know uh average or above weight on in traditional formats but you would be way below in in weekly winners um the top of my head not a ton i i'm starting to formulate some of the player takes that i like that i'm going to get ahead on with i mean a couple of them are just going there um but it's just i'm going to be loaded on the these running backs everyone who's come off the board here so yeah sorry yeah do you like um i saw uh our guy uh roquette was saying in the chat he says hot take i think the one-two turn is the best spot on the board in all formats with the way this side of the board lines up to get two of these high-end guys do you agree with that spot specifically in weekly winners like a back-end spot is really nice or is the thought of being able to get a gibbs or bijan tilt it back to the 101 front side uh i still like the back side of the board because i think yeah nobody has gibb ceiling so if i can't get the 101 with it i'd rather be the back side bijan does feel a little bit like consolation prize to me um i know he has that ceiling he hurt me on both of the big finals that i made last year because i had puka and not bijan um but uh i'd rather be the back side and get two of the running backs because this is what is happening a lot on the front side on the clock here uh by adp alan neighbors neighbors rice is this neighbor's territory i've been taking neighbors now yeah this is the got the same ceiling that even up to jsn has so yeah this is the contest to make up for your your neighbors um you know a lot lack of bags for sure yeah nez i got your jonathan taylor question after we make the next pick okay yeah this is an interesting range here uh i mean nico stacks the bye week with with neighbors certainly has the spike upside uh then you're into rice mcbride igbuka javante davante kyron love there what do you think um god i've i've mixed in i've mixed in i've mixed in mcbride i've mixed in uh love because i mean he's got that spike i think so uh i've i've been fading kyron a lot of other spots so i i'd go mcbride right here mcbride baby the formula all right neighbors mcbride to start print fest absolute print fest we're gonna get tooting back on the other side you get put mike evans in here he's gonna score three touchdowns we've already won a week chad chad do you do any um like week one stacking uh at all no i no i don't at all i think it's too hard to try and pinpoint a week that you're gonna win um i remember that meta early on let's try and find a week and go for it i just think that's too hard and even if you're right then are you handcuffing the rest of your team or the rest of the weeks where you still have an opportunity for it i'd say i'd say you are even if you're right right trying to get to 200 points like you're not gonna pick which week all of your guys spike yeah yeah have a little humility yeah with the with with the format yeah i i get that i'm like eliminator pilled right now so i have like week one on the brain and uh also with raquette's uh comment there one two turn for eliminator is like crazy op uh because you're you're dealing with it in high like an elevated running back uh market there and those guys have the same price that they do in every other contest so it's like super super sick to get to get those those back end guys propel fitness water with gatorade electrolytes zero sugar and vitamins propel hydrates better than water to help you get the most out of your workout and get back to your best self what propels you propel with gatorade electrolytes this episode is brought to you by michelob ultra even if you're a pro or just in it for fun the moment you play for a michelob ultra you can get the most out of your workout or get back to your best self everything changes the focus sharpens the game gets real every point every move suddenly means something more because a superior light beer is on the line superior is worth playing for michelob ultra superior light beer find it near you at michelobultra.com enjoy responsibly copyright 2026 anheuser-busch michelob ultra light beer st louis missouri that is to answer your jonathan taylor so he was in the he was the highest scoring player in the winning lineup in week 8 and in week 10. he was stacked in both of those he had one receiving or he had two receiving touchdowns on the season he had no more than four catches other than one week and he had a high of 50 yards his receiving lines are like three for 22 for 50 3 for 16 2 for 20 4 for 14. like it was almost non-existent and the weeks that he was a winner and even when he was stacked it was like three for four times he was the highest scoring player in the league and he was the highest scoring player in the league and he was the highest scoring player in the league and all of the production was ground touchdowns okay so not like vitally important for him he had he had one two three four five weeks of three or more touchdowns in the first eight weeks of the season yeah he was crazy he was like otherworldly to start the season last year man chad how much because in this contest um it seems of all the contests the contests just the way with the pod dynamics where the combo stuff um especially within your own portfolio maybe isn't quite as big of a deal in this one it seems like you do probably want to be pretty conscious if you're putting in 150 to not be building too many of the same exact teams at the top or is that not how you think about it yeah i like i still like to diversify and get that um one piece of data that didn't make it into the deck those constant very concentrated drafters they're not going to be able to make it into the deck but they're going to be able to make generally did worse. So yeah, it was all right. We're on. the clock the greatest team ever garrett wilson evans henderson adams judkins mclaurin swift is it john what do you want you or yeah what do you want okay what do you think he's changing up the spike week and then yes i'd go wilson i like i like wilson i was just curious who john was like over the moon for yeah you had mentioned evans before so that's who i thought you meant i didn't think care wilson was going to come back this is this is amazing and now we get whichever running back we want with a spiky profile right after and we're printing is it head is it the hendo swing here chad it is fingers crossed no no and i'm yeah yeah i was like pete so what about what about the pierce swing week 11 stack or bucky that would be my suggestions price or irving i'd go price price okay price j d price so then you it sounds like you think in this format price is probably uh undervalued by a good bit um yes and the way that i'm looking at running backs even later on right now is the ones who uh break through even like giovante last year can they secure a role on a top five to ten offense and what's it going to do if they if they get that role and all to themselves because that's how giovante broke through with it uh top five offense for dallas he got it all to himself he ran with it so right like i'm not going to take the um the running backs who are like playing for bad teams i'm not tajji spears if tony pollard gets hurt i don't really care um if he buries me one week okay that's it's one week out of 17 so well you have because it does seem like even here with the price pick you know taking a look at the price pick you know taking a look at the price pick him over guys like burden and and adams or even mclaurin that you're kind of saying like that structure is really important to me that kind of last call for these running backs who can go for 30 does that mean you in your portfolio would you have any teams that look like heath jones here from the four with with five straight wide receivers if that's what the room gave you or would you kind of force the issue i would not go five straight wide receivers but i will have some zero rb teams but i'm gonna have some elite onesies is what i'm mixing in with it so gotcha makes sense have you done um any single tight end teams when you do like trey mcbride um quite possibly i've done like one or two um i i generally will tack on a tight end at the end stacking with my qb um just mcbride he's got a bye week he's not going to spike every week so if need be um it's not a bad way to go uh i don't put a ton of capital into it at this point at all uh but i mean if i get forced into a bad spot where all the tight ends are gone and i only have mcbride i'm not gonna force it nice guy with yeah sorry no no nice guy to pair with uh ferg they're the only two teams on week 14 bye there you go yeah i'm i'm just not gonna let myself get forced into anything even if it's taking a zero one week we're in with the pod format and for best ball i don't want a zero any week so yeah exactly all right we are here drafting weekly winners with chad trying to apply some of the data he shared with us if you're just tuning in now make sure you watch the first half of the show where chad shared all kinds of goods via as roquette said a very nice deck a slide deck that is not any harder type of deck not that no not a huge ginormous deck no uh although this deck did have an appendix so it was pretty huge uh bijan neighbors mcbride garrett wilson jadarian price we are about to pick here at the end of the sixth round what kind of things are you thinking about here don't say it don't say it well i could have said no uh hurts would have been a nice fall so um has the neighbors week eight and we kind of lean into the the rookie stuff here play a little later season i like tyson because uh shucks a nice like late later qb option looks like we're probably going to play the multiple qb route here obviously with some later guys and i think i think tyson's spiky i think he's a very fun weekly winners uh selection yeah yeah we add tyson to the squad here uh did you say you liked remandre uh or not as much here not as much on this one uh week 11 is nice with remandre that's what i was thinking yeah okay same week yeah that's that's fine then let's look at that quick enough yeah let's uh let's do it we'll grab remandre triple week 11 it's uh our top one percent roi it just goes yeah yeah can you feel it can you feel it so when you what do you start thinking about with these wide receivers as far as from like a quarterback or stacking standpoint is it like yeah i'm trying to get uh shuck dart in geno um obviously the the mcbride one's interesting depending on what you're optimizing for there have you been thinking about quarterback yeah i mean this one we've got a lot of uh options open uh if it was me drafting i'd have those guys in my qr ready just so i can keep an eye on them as i'm going okay levitan relax he can't go anywhere without getting q shamed anymore i love it yeah you want all your quarterbacks in the queue no not all the quarterbacks just those three so i can see when they start going on how about this i won't forget i won't forget them for you there you go um but yeah i mean i want to stack these guys up there and we've got options uh darts a nice spiky guy uh here i know i just said it and that's probably going to jinx us as we're coming around but he well he's a good spiky guy for us but he doesn't make sense on anyone else's rosters he doesn't run at all that's right uh chunk the deuce no uh check the title or maybe it's down here for you uh weekly winners alpha from a sharp drafter that is chad mashkey chad are you gonna be firing at the dog bowl again this year yep i will be don't sound so excited about it i know man i know it's it's exciting when you win it is a hell on the bankroll when you do not so yeah yeah we we uh i was talking to chad a little bit talk about like week one getting excited i was like yeah you know i'd really like to keep it to like you know like 20 or 30 like week one and just kind of like you know just like take it slow and like he just like laughed at me he's like yeah okay good luck yeah that's not gonna happen it's way too exciting so i know week one is when there's so much randomness going on too so i know right come on trap to dart makes no sense for your team bro no sense whatsoever yeah dude thanks for the donation bruh all right uh let's see here uh what we're looking at at 8 11 we got the three running backs the three wide receivers bride certainly a pocket here with quarterbacks and some spike week wide receivers here um where do where does uh where where do you think uh the broncos running backs fall into the weekly winners plan i've had such a hard time with the broncos running backs and uh the tools keep on telling me to take them and i keep passing on it jade and reed yeah i was gonna say it's a week by spike week king there that seems like a nice pick for us yeah a little bit of just a slight bit of uh steam on him uh being in two wide receiver sets too but we'll we'll see you got to keep keep it close here to that but that was the first we've heard of it um can we just look at running backs yeah i don't mind taking a swing on this is like a harvey slam dunk right it's weekly winners man yeah it's harvey or i mean i'm the vikings guy harvey's the right pick so based on everything based on everything way to check yourself i was gonna i was gonna say addison like isn't addison a better in weekly winners format and gives us another stacking out that that was a that that was a tear break clear as day like yeah because that's the thing with these guys that we like about them in bbm like mason gainwell bill jones rodriguez tracy i think all those guys serve a purpose but man like do do any of those guys have that 26 point threshold in them bill maybe yeah maybe right yeah but but like otherwise like that was we we are we are seeing a different type of running back start to go and uh we know how important it is to load up at these guys so yeah i think harvey was it was a smash there good swing yes uh tyler says jk david's pinky promise 17th healthy weeks and you're laughing i am um yeah so we got the four running backs And you said you probably haven't been doing a ton of 0RB builds. You are trying to prioritize the early running backs. Are you generally at kind of 4 to 5 and then shutting it down? To a certain degree, yes. And I do like a couple of later swings for trying to get running back on a top 5 offense, so if that does come through. So I'll generally be 4 through where we are now. But a lot of times I'm 4 a little bit earlier than we are. But Neighbors and Garrett Wilson falling and McBride, I mean, those are good picks. Right, yeah. The guys that stand out to me are the contingent guys that could just absolutely ruin the contest. We haven't seen it over the last couple of years, and that's why the data skews so heavy to the top. But a guy like Tank Bigsby or a guy like Blake Quorum, a guy like Kyle Minonga, those guys are way better picks in this format. I would push back a little. I would agree with you on Quorum because I think he'd be kind of like a one-for-one for Kyron. I do wonder, like, would Minonga catch enough passes to have 25-plus point upside? I do think the profile matters on what, like, even same with Bigsby. Like, would we start to see a little more Shipley in third down stuff? I think if Swift missed time, Minonga would be, like, a top 5 running back on the week. He would have so much volume. Yeah. He's going to, like, he would touch the ball a ton. Like, yeah, the pass-catching stuff definitely takes a hit, but, like, he would be guaranteed, like, the goal line touches. Like, they're probably going to be in good game scripts. Like, I think Minonga has pretty strong upside, to be honest. He's, like, 90% Judkins. Yeah. Yeah, but, like, I do, like, if you think about the price you're paying for the contingent upside in this contest, too. Sure. But just as a contingency play himself, I'm saying. That's all. But, no, I hear you on, like, the pick. Cost adjusted. My thought with the running backs is, like, usable weeks isn't a thing. Like, usable weeks at wide receiver or back-end tight ends a thing. Like, usable weeks at running back isn't. So, like, taking a zero doesn't matter at all. Let's take spectacular zeros. That would be a great name for a show. I was going to, yeah. I'd put love in the queue, but. I'd go Purdy first. Okay. Okay. Talk to me about that. I think he's got. A higher ceiling than love on here. There are some options where we can go on the backside. It's going to be harder, and it's taking the faller, right? Is that just an element, too, of obviously. Yeah, you're right. There are some backdoor stack options, but even if not. Do you just want to take Devo right here? What's the CDP here? Or we could take love here. Devo's right in here. Is Devo gone? Yeah, I'm silly. Okay. I thought it would be. Wow. All right. That seems rich. It's a new day. Yeah. Yeah. I assume Devo would be there. Love's the pick here, then. So. Yeah. I wanted to hit two QBs on this turn. I know Purdy's not stacked, but I think. I mean, we got. I love Purdy. Naked Purdy, baby. Yep. And he, again, of those quarterbacks, I mean, Purdy has been one of the. It's actually Purdy and love. I was just talking about. This the other day where I think on best ball breakfast, where he did a naked love, like you'd look at the Sims stuff for the BRS and like these guys spread it around enough and you don't get the one wide receiver who goes for 20 plus. I mean, maybe that's different this year, having Evans in and just having a caliber of wide receiver who is going to make it more likely that Purdy stacked up. But the thesis of him spreading the ball around has been pretty continuous over the years. Yeah. I love that. I just thought Purdy was going to fall two rounds. Like we got him at a discount. Yeah. Already. He's like, so. Yeah. I'm going to, I got to get, I got to update the banner. I was about to call for. Yep. If, I mean, if Eggers really wanted love, he probably should have taken him instead of Pittman. Yeah. Oh my God. He's, it wasn't even about Purdy. It was about love. My God. All right. He's back. Yeah. Where did it go? Okay. All right. Every week Eggers gets his own banner. Jesus. Yeah. I don't know. I mean, it's kind of crazy. I like it. I like it, man. The, the, like Devo wasn't bad last year and he was on, and he was on a bad team. Like. And he had pneumonia and was. Well, that was two years ago. Yeah. Wasn't it? It was pneumonia again. Then what was it? He was hurt with something last year that we kept doing the Q tag thing on. A rib. I think. Riv. There you go. Yeah. I mean. Devo is my. My most drafted player. So I don't, I don't mind, but. Yeah. In weekly winners or just everything. Everything. So. Nice. Pretty much every format too. So. Yeah. It just didn't make any sense to me. And like, we do such a bad job pricing in. If they don't have a team under their name, they immediately go up the moment they sign. Right. Yeah. Yeah. Yep. Fuck. Yeah. Yeah. But there's like certain guys that I'm just thinking of right now that I'm like better in weekly winners. And I don't know if I'm right or not, but like Keaton Mitchell was for sure on that list. I mean, I'm not, I wouldn't be opposed to. He's probably not going to make it. I was going to say, I wouldn't be opposed to Tracy. He's also kind of like a little bit of a tear break and you could see things breaking his, right. I knew he would, that's your RB bill was going to take him. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Let's go ADP. Stribling. Do the stribling stuff. Yeah. Do the stribling thing. Yep. Yeah. I'm going to go ADP. I'm going to go ADP. I'm going to go ADP. I'm going to go ADP. of i mean you've already made like if you're gonna if you're gonna crash the leaderboard and weekly winners it's because two or three of these guys are going for 25 plus points and it's just like if that profile doesn't exist in the pool then just don't force it yeah right yeah it definitely exists with some of the wide receivers still though yeah yeah well and we saw like the bar that they have to clear to be relevant is a lot lower and that's why i'll take those shots right now instead of instead of forcing something else so after we make these two picks i do have a question because you said off the top you kind of acknowledge that we're in a bit of like an anomaly running back health-wise for the last two years so you know uh i am curious if you are doing and i know you say you sometimes zero rb but like are you willing to to think that it's an anomaly or that it's like an actual trend that we're that we're going to see you um that's a great question because there's a ton of advancements right in how people are getting treated and the way people take care of their body i still think it's an anomaly yeah i really do because it's not like uh all injuries have stopped wide receivers are getting hurt more so won't that hold true schultz cross position or dell do you want to do dell first what's more important um i would do schultz first okay on here sure that's how plan comes together yeah if we get dell on the way back this this team just like went from like a oopsie to a to a shipper from an oopsie to a whoopsie was there anyone else on your radar here chad uh or do you think just going in on the texan stock makes sense here can i see running backs quick yeah we're looking at camara samson b rob marshall marshall lloyd is the other one for me yeah we got a green bay thing going on too i do you want to flip it yeah let's do it look at this week 11 by maxing here and now eggers can suck it more that's right that's right let's go yeah we are we're roi maxing here everything we're doing here is just like a up in the ticker the middle school said in the voice of uh jeffrey epstein the financier in a room where i haven't just been talking about all of this i might have tried to push lloyd around yeah but i don't think there was any way it was coming back to us no i i'm comprising my list of like guys that i would vault that tier like that tier that we were just looking at the pacheco woody marks sharps sea rod like that's the list of guys that those guys i'd be vaulting that and be taking like the upside swing guys and i had tank as like the number one on that one then lloyd then jayden blue sean tucker who scores you know 10 touchdowns a year could score three in one week like he did last year ray davis like those those types seem more spiky in this format than taking alvin camara's eight points or dylan samson's backup role on maybe the worst offense in football without a doubt and i mean you just named a bunch of guys that i have a fair amount of so that's that is what i'm leaning into i mean rb2 that's the you need to clear at least 15 to win so right where does kamara's 11 help me it doesn't yeah yeah looking yeah i mean the rookies are always tough i mean they're the ones that could have that in their bag um and i do like i do like jayden blue i know there's talk about how much contingent upside does he have but i think the pass catching plus uh could give him 15 yeah yeah i think what's most intriguing is his ability to just carve out his own role you know like yeah that that's what that's what's fun is that he doesn't need contingency to like kind of be fun he can be tony pollard of of old here like spelling age a very ezekiel elliott s giovante who was like laughably bad as , as, as a pass catcher like the efficient it's one of the work one of the least efficient running backs as a pass catcher in the league so if they can like get a third down back that actually like has a threat out of the backfield i think they would be thrilled with that so yeah i think we should all be hoping that jayden blue is mining his p's and q's being on his best behavior wearing plain black spikes things of that nature plain black spikes killed me that was the rep what were they gucci spikes or whatever it was yeah yeah louis v v that's what it was pulling him out of the the world cup trophy case box all right i will say i i do think you need the contingent uh upside to hit for weekly winners but yeah jayden i mean i'm drafting plenty of people regular too where he has all i think he had yeah i think it's he doesn't have like the full one for one contingent but he he would easily get four to five plus more carries a game in the event of an injury even if they use some film off a ass mpc in the event of a javante injury i kind of do want to take jayden blue after all this this talk let's do it he's still here yeah yeah absolutely then i would shut down running back after that yeah when one of us accidentally already shut down quarterback so that leaves wide receiver and tight end i mean we're probably just wide receiver here for the final two i got a tight end oh for god's sake i got a tight end for well now that you said that you got to take him now because he's not making it back because everybody knows john i will say i like i like wicks here a lot if he if he falls that would be a gift for multiple reasons it is not mitchell evans i promise you that mitchell evans just got a hell of a lot sexier in these drafts though with my guy jt sanders uh hurting his ankle come on d mac you little fuck today uh taekwon or booty we could do a jaylen knoll if we want to sure or keen keen and alan keen and alan okay yeah thank you for saying it for me dude you're welcome there we go finally i got your tongue ness i just listen man i got made fun of for drafting alvin kamara in a total points league this weekend so like now i'm just like i'm just i'm just shutting up like that was a great pick and like dude took keenan allen bro like nez had a should i should i pull up the draft board of your your string of picks at the ship chasing meetup that you're getting roasted for yeah i mean there were some was this during our 250 draft yes contained league total points wins by the way that's it just cumulative basketball scoring or set your lineup yeah yeah yeah no no matchups no playoff weeks just total points marathon style it was just this stretch here it starts at around 13 we go aaron rogers alvin kamara keenan allen isaiah pacheco uh yeah he was he was getting some theo johnson i went full brand oh and naji harris around 20 damn right baby i love i don't know if this uh arrow was put there after the fact but can you zoom in on that arrow that's pointing to the naji it says embarrassing and it was put uh i think right after i drafted alvin kamara oh okay so it's just they're free so pat got so pat and i were at the 11 12 and i had lamb and pat like took naked dac here and that tilted me and i and i was like how do i get this fucker back took charlie kolar right before him on this herbert team and he was legit he was legit he was legit he was legit he was legit he was legit piss i got that guy good good so awesome that like out of all the scrubs that have stickers none for charlie kolar ronald maybe he's on the fullback tab i don't know i didn't i didn't check the fullbacks all right john talk about your tight end so some other fish takes them and we don't have to yeah you ever heard of tasem fucking hill oh god get out of here dude rumors with the broncos his best career best seasons of his life came alongside sean payton tasem hill weekly winners legend we're taking a zero anyways we john how much money have you spent on tasem hill on this site i mean isn't isn't enough enough i think i might have made it back that one week in the brs two years ago when he went nuke i might have made it back but i'm definitely down i'm stuck lifetime on tasem hill for sure i think that the joker thesis is is done i mean he looks so cooked last we saw him i know he's healthy the moment you said yeah the moment you said you had a tight end i knew who it was and they got they got no use for this guy so here we go this is what round 18 looks like now xavier laguette uh eli raritan ray davis cyrus allen devon bayley can I redeem myself? yeah like this is a great format for michael mayer is it not why do we need a third tight end over a seventh wide receiver no i'm just saying tight end names okay i'll put them in the queue if it shuts you up i mean if we want a tight end tan just is who i'd go with yeah oh okay i'm listening sneaky but i'm if no if i think you gotta go jaylen noel well thank you yeah well he just has a boo-boo on his finger right it's just a little boo-boo okay we're gonna rub some dirt on it for him do it i told you guys cj stroud easy back stack all right here's the squad with chad uh most of these picks chad approved uh most of them rock pretty jordan loves cj stroud that's on me my bad i'll be i'll be better play like a champion no excuses dejan robinson jadarian price remandre rj harvey marshall lloyd and jayden blue at running back neighbors garrett wilson jordan tyson jayden reed dejan stripling keaton allen and jaylen his name is noel and then two tight ends trey mcbride dalton schultz what do we think chad i like it i do um i think we the upside picks at uh running back which is what you need to carry you through in there and then i mean can't no qualms with any of the receivers at all so yeah the stroud i mean we played it as well as you can with that it really like stroud has upside too he's not a bad pick but he's right guys did you hear that he's not a bad pick relax i like him better if i already have nico or uh against but he's not bad you like him better if you click him with your own agency as opposed to uh talking about jacoby to brissette and getting distracted who did that i can't even blame you for you i was zoning out it wasn't even jacoby uh it is fun i like it you know again the the running back conversation i do think is interesting but i i really think marshall lloyd jayden blue like if you were to get a giga smash late round running back being an offense like that i should be able to do that i would be able to do that i would be able to do a shakier veteran running back in front of them i do think they can do the three down stuff that would give them the 20 point upside there yeah it's like a long play team you know for sure where we're just like we think we this is definitely like more like a week four plus type of team where you know neighbors gets a little more healthy blue or lloyd can like maybe find them obviously even rj harvey um yeah we're set up to capture that yeah yeah right and we're set up to capture that on this team let's just not waste keenan's you know week one 24 point score uh you know before everybody else comes along any other words of wisdom chad as uh often on the clock viewers funnel into weekly winners after this show no the only i saw a comment earlier asking about one qb builds i would not do one qb builds i mean i would always stack another qb onto your build it gives you so many more lineups that you can uh come up with and we saw earlier too that there was a top one percent team that took a zero from their qb i mean imagine if they just had a 15 from there what that does to their roi so that's it it's just it's not worth risking that and that's why when you're asking me earlier about uh mcbride if i'll take another tight end i will just in case with something like that because yeah the zero doesn't hurt you nearly as much but if if everyone else on your team spikes yep yes yeah i i i'm with that now i definitely changed my tune on single onesie builds for sure yeah yeah the first year i did that a ton and i do it with lamar all the time so yeah and that worked out but i think that was a lot more than a great grand strategy in it yeah you just see like you know that that gino smith trey tucker thing and those quarterbacks are just such an easy way to add points to your roster and just give yourself that that secondary out um sweet dude well this was great chad really uh appreciate it what's what's that eating green on your face sean the one quarterback stuff i remember being like the kingpin of the movement and we're just slowly throwing dirt on my grave as i sit here and listen to it i'm like i was so wrong bro our heart was in the right place i think i think the thesis made sense but you know we we we had hubris i also am just now seeing the private chat and chad was all over john's telegraphed tight end pick he goes it's tasem i assume i read it in that tone i don't want to you know put tone on chad but clearly that's how he uh he said it it wasn't an excited one that's it wasn't an excited tone that's for sure no but i did see i mean sac took tasem in your guys's draft didn't he uh the ffpc i feel like i saw that somewhere so jacob didn't jacob yeah yeah yeah yeah um eggers dude he's like asking me to answer ask chad if three running back with the same buy is cool we just talked about this dude as many buys as you can get from the same team is cool your eevee just goes up and up i think he took three he's saying he took only three running backs and they all the same buy well then in that case check the banner bruh thank you doesn't hurt. Uh, the going from five to six RBs in the data doesn't really help at all, but I mean, you're, you're throwing darts at the end anyway. So, yep. Uh, awesome. Chad, is there any, do you want people to follow you on Twitter? Do you just want to be an anonymous member of the community? Pseudo anonymous? What do you want? I'm around, I mean, Twitter at, at Chad Mashkey. Um, and then I'm in the discord. If you tag me, I'll pop in. If you don't take me, I probably won't see it. Um, it's just too much going on. I've always been a completist. So like I would try to stay up on everything that's in there. So once it got too much for me, it just became, became too much, but yeah. Uh, Twitter, Twitter is probably where I will be hanging out more, more than anything. So, and, uh, any questions, I mean, reach out, uh, everything should be open. So I'd love to tell you to fuck off. So just reach out and, uh, uh, you should, you charge, will you charge the, uh, for the slide deck? Chad will sell that the full deck and the, uh, the appendix for $5. Yeah. You deserve to make a little bit of money on that. You did, you did a ton of work in preparation for that and presenting it. So thanks for coming on. Always great to talk with you. All I was going to say was, you know, as we sign off, uh, new me, uh, went crazy. We got a third puppy, 1 million in prizes and a second pit bull, half a million in prizes. So go to your wives, go to your significant others, grab their purse, you know, just kidding. Yeah. New me. Uh, where is it here? Uh, he put the puppy in the bag guys, put it in the bag, like Mac Miller, their 1.5 million in prize pools. Good stuff there. That is fire, man. Uh, all right. Awesome. Uh, John, you guys, do you have any, any additional badge pros content today? Uh, I'm done for today and tomorrow. Nezzy, are you going to do anything baseball related? Uh, not today, tomorrow though. Uh, gonna, gonna hold it down. Probably do, um, probably do some best ball, uh, you know, get some, get some drafts in it's crunch time, uh, slipping a little, little baseball, uh, at the end, but, uh, gonna, gonna be a, a, a best ball focus for, for August. You know, it's the big push. Perfect. I'll be there, uh, Thursday, Friday. Beautiful. Um, as far as for me, I got swole cast later today. Also, uh, gonna be doing Wednesday additions of best ball breakfast for the month of August. Gonna strike while the best ball lobbies are hot. And because I'm so far ahead of pace for BBM, we might even, maybe tomorrow we do like some pit bull drafts, but, uh, three really fun guests tomorrow. Uh, Alex cups, of course. So you think you can tout champ and then cooter doodle from fantasy life and Ben. Nice. We're going to be mixing up the lineups on Wednesday. Best ball breakfast is ADP chasing tonight, ship chasing tomorrow. Uh, and then I have Danny high fits from the ringer is going to be my guest on the randomizer on Thursday, and then we'll do the best ball bash after the randomizer. And then I booked a shady advice for after dark on Thursday. So busy week, excited to be back in the saddle. Uh, it'll be a fun sprint here the next five weeks before the season starts. Thanks again to Chad, the chat, everyone except Eggers to Nez, to John, you guys have any other contests you'd like us to, uh, to focus on or do a deep dive. Let us know. Otherwise we will keep bringing the heat here every Tuesday at noon Eastern. We'll see you guys next time on off and on the clock, relax and let Kroger delivery handle your grocery shopping this week. We start with only the freshest items, then carefully pack your order in our refrigerated trucks and our cool trucks. Keep your food fresh right to your door. Fresh grocery is your way with Kroger delivery. And right now you can save $20 on your first delivery order Kroger fresh for everyone. This episode is brought to you by TXU Energy. For the first time ever, Texans have an energy plan that combines free nights all year with daytime summer savings. It's called Free Nights and Cool Summer. You get free nights every night, all year long, plus a 25% bonus toward your daytime use all summer. It's a first-of-its-kind plan created for how Texans actually use energy. Discover how much more you could save with Free Nights and Cool Summer. TXU Energy. Energy for everything. Visit TXU.com for more information. Rep number 10004. Yeah.