9/29/26: UK Terror Suspects On Bail, Texas Diesel Emergency, Trump Diehards Jump Ship

This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Lisa, tell them about our new show. We have a new podcast. It's called Don't Lie To Me. I'm Lexi Juanio, we're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart. And I'm Lisa de Julio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions, and at this point in my food days, I've lived it all. Now in my 30s, being the founder of new shoes, good taste is my business. Listen on the iHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hi, this is Kylie Breikman, Angel Jaretana, Jeremy Cole, Hanepash McDonald, and we're the hosts of the artists on artists on artists on artists podcast. The improvised character comedy podcast were each week a new panel of artists discuss their craft. Join us for a panel of Eurovision participants. And we do a little Halloween sometimes. Does the Pope dress up? He winks on Halloween. It's right up next to the microphone. I hear you get the elbows here, the eyelashes hate each other. You never seen Italy so quiet as when the Pope gets up to wink on Halloween. Listen to artists on artists on artists on artists every Thursday on the iHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Lacey Mosley, author, actor, stand-up comedian, creator, and host of Scam Goddess Podcasts. The True Crime Comedy Podcasts all about robbery, fraud, and those who practice it. Each week I bring on an amazing guest. Ooh, I scammed them. What? I could talk to you for an hour. You're a generational yapper, like me. That's why I had to make yapping a job. And now you can catch full episodes of my show on YouTube. Start listening to Scam Goddess on the iHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Scam Goddess! Hey guys. Ready or not? 2024 is here, and we, here at Breaking Points, are already thinking of ways we can up our game for this critical election. We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade the studio, add staff, give you guys the best independent coverage that is possible. If you like what we're all about, it just means the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that. Let's get to the show. Good morning everybody. Happy Tuesday. Have an amazing show for everybody today. What do you have personal? Indeed we do. We've got some pretty odd updates for you in the alleged terror attempt in the UK. So some theories we can float of what exactly the hell is going on here. So I'll break that down for you. I've also got Trump out denying a Baroque-Reveed report that he had offered some concessions to the Iranians. So we'll dig into the very latest there. Logan Phillips is going to join us for an update on where things stand as we get closer to the midterms. We're going to look in particular at the state of Mississippi where Democrats are urging donors to spend money. Is this a fool's errand or is something real happening there? We've also got Garrison Lovely joining us to talk about his new book which is about the automation threat against American workers opposed by AI. But there's also a lot of other developments there as well. Open AI is actually pulling their new model that was supposed to be released out of safety concerns. They've also halted all training of new models internally. So seems like something big is going on there. We don't know exactly what. We're also going to turn our eyes to Israel where there are new revelations about just how much Netanyahu knew before October 7th. This comes as he is also facing an election. I think it's literally the day before the US election for the midterms here. And finally, we're going to take a look at draft kings. There was a pro-publica reporter that posed as a gambler with problematic habits. Instantly was flooded with offers and VIP status, etc. So revealed an awful lot about draft king's business practices. Yeah, I want to take everybody through this just to show how these companies operate. And there's also a lot of other updates that are on the gambling front. Continues to sweep the nation week three of the NFL set a new record on polymarket, calcium, and everywhere else. And so the mass bankrupting of America continues. Thank you to everybody who has been signing up BreakingPoints.com. Do not use $10 on a parlay, put it towards our free month trial instead. There you go. That's a good pitch. The other pitch is, if everybody signs up today, if we get, let's say, 50 people who sign up today, I will buy Baklava for the entire crew. I was telling Chris, I said, all day yesterday after Baklava, all I could think about is sitting in Turkey having a glass of apple, elmachai, apple tea, if you never had it's incredible, and a nice Baklava. And so that's what I'm going to buy for all of our crew, if 50 people make it happen people. So make it happen. Don't do it for me. Do it for everybody else. I'll even buy Baklava for Ryan. Sogar, did you see that on the DraftKings thing? Did you see Lula's banning gambling apps in Brazil? Glenn always sends me all the updates out of it. Brazil, thank you. Thank you so much for what you're doing. You know, sorry, aside, I'll just say it here, what has happened in Brazil is the future of our country. So remember that they had the mass cash wealth, the wealth transfer program, which was one of the most successful poverty alleviating programs for a decade. Then they legalized sports gambling, almost 70% of that cash went right back into the sports betting companies and everybody in the poverty class, which was, you know, largely it was using the money actually for good up to that point, massively addicted to soccer betting. So banning it there is incredibly important. It eviscerated the entire efficacy of their welfare program. And so I think, I mean, obviously I think we're going to have the same problem here. So thank you, Brazil, seriously, for finally waking up. They were ground zero for sports betting. And I think that's what it's going to look like here very soon. Anyway, with all that out of the way, let's get to Iran. As Crystal said, some updates on the terror attack. Let's put A1 up here on the screen. As one does after uncovering a national state-sponsored terrorist attack, all five men have now been arrested, have now been released on bail over the alleged Royal Air Force base Fairford terror plot. And so what they say is that quote, they are subject to stringent conditions on their movement and contact with others. They remain under investigation as we explore multiple lines of inquiry. Well, obviously, as we all know, anybody seriously accused of being an Iranian sleeper agent building bombs about to blow up a US B1 or a B2 is not getting released on bail. And as I understand it in the UK, there are two types of conditions where if you are booked on a criminal charge, like, you know, just like normal criminal stuff, you are eligible for bail, which is what these guys were released on. If you are charged under terrorism circumstances, the police there have up to two weeks to actually hold you before they can release you. So that tells you a little bit about what's happening here. What also is what we know out of it is that quote, no viable explosives were even found. Let's put A2 on the screen. This is from Alex Wickham. He is the UK political editor over at Bloomberg News. He says after examination, the three white vans found at Fairford did not contain quote, viable explosives. If they had fairly, obviously, they would not have been released on bail. That does not mean the case is closed. The incident is still being considered serious and the men's activity quote potentially nefarious. They remain under investigation. They're pursuing multiple lines of inquiry, including that they were acting either knowingly or unknowingly at the behest of a foreign state and UK authorities were aware of an increased threat at Fairford and at heightened security at the base as result. So I think this is my personal theory. Outside of just false flag. And this is what's being floated out there. Either this was literally just a bunch of like criminal thugs stealing diesel from a bunch of farmers, which is being floated widely in the UK or it's some sort of like weird false flag incident gone wrong. Because Miss Farmer happened to be driving down the road at midnight and watch these guys all just like kind of scram and I mean these aren't even mutually exclusive. So they had to blow the whole thing up and now they have to kind of cover their tracks and hopefully the entire thing will disappear. What is confusing on top of all of this is that the administration still continues to talk as if it's some potential terror attack by Iran. But no, they never say the word Iran. Right. The word Iran has not yet appeared from the president or the secretary of state. So put a five B because this is the diesel thief theory, which is kind of does make some sense here. This person says it makes sense. The five men are asked to were out stealing red diesel, which is the particular died red diesel. I did not know any of this by the way until the diesel crisis that's used in agriculture from vulnerable farm bousers. I guess that's how that's pronounced. Do you know that word bousers? I presume that the storage tanks on farms. Anyway, thefts of farm diesel are up over 300% in 2026 as the diesel price shot up after Trump Netanyahu's elective war against Iran. The fake fuel company signage would be good cover for diesel thieves because on their white vans they had fake like fuel company signs indicating that they were the type that would distribute fuel to a farm or pump your fuel or whatever. Oil barrels in the vans also consistent with fuel thefts pumps for emptying farm bousers were probably found as well. Just some London lads nicking diesel from vulnerable farms would explain the early release on bail while the media hyperventilation about terrorism continues. I think that's probably the most likely explanation. However, I will say one weird thing here is that the farmer who spotted the men says number one no authorities have reached out to her to be like what did you see? Tell me everything that's kind of weird even if it is just like fuel theft you would want to know what happened what did you see where when? why, like, how many men? And that's the other piece is she says there were more than five. So remember they arrested five, five have now been released on bail. She's adamant that there were more than five men who she saw involved in this. Let's go and play eight, five. We suddenly saw a large group of men and they were panicking and I think the reason, well, I suppose they had panicking because anyone saw them, but our vehicle is quite similar to the patrol vehicles that they use and we had lights on main beam because it wasn't another car. So I think we still dazzled them and they started to run and some of them ran straight ahead across the road into the field and some turned and started going down towards Kempsford, which is our next village and also a slightly more obvious part of the fence that runs along the air base. So it's really hard, it's such a flash moment of seeing them, but they're definitely more than five. We think maybe between eight and ten of them were there at that point and a lot of them had their faces covered. They're all wearing like similar, almost you'd have thought perhaps it was like what they've been told to wear. Quite similar, like slim fitting clothes. So then I realised this was probably something a bit more unusual than undercover policemen parked in some vans. How do you feel that was streeting the fence secretary said you didn't have the full picture? I just don't know. I don't know how he knows what picture I've got, never met him. Nobody's literally nobody in any sort of official capacity has been in touch with me or anyone else. When any official capacity has been in touch with me, she says that there were more than five. She does say look, it was quick. I just got a glance, but she says I'm confident. There were more than five. I'm thinking eight to ten. I don't know. It's, it's all a little odd. It's all a little odd. Meanwhile, the secretary of state was on Fox News last night. He says, quote, it's a foreign actor. Take a listen. Well, let me preface by saying that I have to be careful. There's some things I cannot say on the air for a lot of different reasons. Suffice it to say that what happened, what almost happened, what could have happened in the UK over the weekend is a very serious situation. It's one that clearly involves the hands of a foreign actor. I won't get into great detail about that yet. I do want to thank the authorities in the United Kingdom who have been very cooperative and on top of it. I know a lot of people are disturbed by the news that some of these people have been released on bail, as it was some of the people are being investigated and obviously we're engaging with them on all of that. But suffice it to say that beyond that, I would argue that they've been very cooperative and very helpful on something that's very serious incident. And I think it ties us to the reality here. And that is we are dealing with elements in the world. And in the case of Iran, for example, who have openly threatened to attack American interest globally, we're going to always take that very seriously. There'll be repercussions for that if it ever were to happen or even attempted. But what happened this weekend could have been and was I think a very serious threat. And I want to thank the UK for their cooperation and their help on it. There's a lot more news that'll come out on this in the days to come. But there's only so much I can say right now at this point about it other than this was a very serious thing. And it was responded to appropriately. A very serious, I don't know, this whole thing stinks to me, very serious situation. They won't blame me. If it was Iran, they would say it. Okay. They would know. Why, you know, what are they, what are they waiting for to play out? It's not like they're going to affect the UK legal process or like, is there's what some, their handler or something that they're trying to target? I don't, this between the woman and spotting them, the circumstances that this all went down. And on top of them being released on bail, the fact that nobody will actually say Iran in an official capacity, you take from them. We just get your towards and keep in mind, we have this adversary who said blah, blah, blah, but he doesn't directly tie the two things together. You're just supposed to infer that that's what they think is going on here. And then they found no explosives. There's no explosives. There are individuals in a van. In a van with like a fuel pumping van. I don't know. It's, it's all very odd. And then you add to that. Remember, maybe Ruby was just trying to cover for the fact that Trump said this nonsense about like, we've been watching them a long time and we've had our eye on them and finally got them or whatever bullshit that he said. Here's what Trump said. A four, take a listen. What's your reaction to that? And is this connected to Iran? Might be, but I will tell you I would have said, don't let them have bail, cashless bail. I wonder, is it cashless bail I guess? It was one of the problems that we had which started the whole mess of crime. We're ending cashless bail. But over there, I'm surprised that they released them. I wouldn't have done that. Looks they've been very good. They worked with us very closely. We know everything about them. We would not have released them. It's very vague. They don't know anything. All right. It's like it's just so obvious that they're just talking out their mouths. And you know, another theory I saw was this Fairford base has been under crazy security because of these IRGC threats. And so they could have just been heightened and freaked out, right? I mean, it's very possible that that's what happened as well. And look, as always with these things, you got to keep a very skeptical, not in the age of Nord Stream. Even today, I see a Berlin police says the Kremlin responsible for something like, yeah, all right. Prove it. Okay. It's like, you know, it's like, you got to release a whole lot of proof before we believe a damn word that you could say. Yeah. I mean, if I had to guess on this one, they were fuel thieves. It's possible. It's possible. There's, you know, maybe a few of them were able to escape and get away. And that's why they only caught five of them. And Trump is just trying to, you know, use this incident to further the alleged threat of Iran. To me, that's the most logical explanation. But given the like weird facts around it, you just can't rule anything out. I would say, I still, I'm not ruling out. I mean, it's like, remember Watergate, right? Gotcha. Guys, what break into the Watergate hotel? You don't really know anything about it. It seems a little sketchy. You dig a little deeper. They happen to have some connections to the RNC and the cash and all that. But the fact that they got caught is what blew the whole thing open would initially just seem like a small burglary. So I don't, I'm not ruling out like some sort of like state operation or something. I know to try to have a precipitating incident. And then play it off and say, Oh, no, it actually was Iran. And like, with a lot of those things that they blamed previously on Iran or Russia in the past, then it just fades off into the distance. Nobody asks. Don't you feel like, though, if they were trying to pull up some sort of a false flag bullshit narrative, they would have kept these guys under lock-in king and not released them on bail. Please keep up appearances. Well, they, you know, again, on Watergate, it's like they didn't hand, they didn't know what to do. They're like, Oh, God, you know, okay, release them. And then hopefully they don't talk. You tell them not to talk. It's like, you know, people have an idea of a well-oiled machine. I don't think that may, by the way, you came in out of even note about it, right? It could have been the US sponsored thing. It could have been somebody else. Some other, you know, cut out or something like that. So I, I'm just, I'm not ruling anything out. We'll see, we'll see. The diesel fuel thing, it, it would make sense as well. Well, that could be a cover. All right. Let's get to the next part. 22 years apart, but so close at heart. And I'm Lisa de Julio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions. And at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all. I'm not gonna get any further fighting. That is wild. I learned that about you today. And I've always got something to say. If men were just honest about this, there would be so much more peace in the world. We're gonna talk about dating, relationships, beauty, getting older, and a little wiser. We're best friends, but we don't always agree. Because you told us how accommodating you are. Obviously, I would do what I think I could do to, to fight the fight, but there's only so much fight I can fight. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Lie. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts, I don't really care. I'm Lacey Mosley, author, actor, stand-up, comedian, creator, and host of Scam Goddess Podcasts, the True Crime Comedy Podcasts, all about robbery, fraud, and those who practice it. Each week I bring on incredible guests like Conan O'Brien, Iowa Debris, Lamor and Morris, and Nicole Byer. Ooh, I scammed them. What? And the scams run the gamut. I'm talking about scams from the 1800s, all the way up to today. I also warn you and keep you safe against scammers. Call your grandparents. Tell your parents to stop clicking on links. Please. If there's a scam, I'm here to protect you. And I'm also here to laugh with you. So if you like fun, if you like comedy and you like learning and protecting yourself from criminals, start listening to Scam Goddess on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Hi, this is Kylie breakman, Angel Jaretana, Jeremy Colhane Cash McDonald, and we're the hosts of the artists on artists on artists on artists podcast. The Improvized Character Comedy Podcasts were each week a new panel of artists discuss their craft. Join us for a panel of wellness influencers. What I try to do is foe journal. I don't know if you guys heard of foe journaling. Yeah, it's reading. It's called reading. So you're so we don't like to use that word anymore. Okay. a panel of New Yorker cartoonists. Have you guys done Terry Gross's Peloton class? No! I've been dying too! I'm so sorry. I'm seeing a reading of Sadako in the Thousand Paper Cranes by Auderman Donald at the Wonderland Bookstore, 14. That's crazy. I went to the Wonderland Bookstore yesterday, and I heard Nora Jones do a reading of Zero Dark Thirty. No way! We'll have to come to the last bookstore, though. Kim Control is reading the guitar tabs of yesterday. A panel of Eurovision participants. He, he winks on Halloween. You can, I hear you get the elbows here, the eyelashes hate each other. You've never seen Italy so quiet as when the Pope gets up to wink on Halloween. Listen to artists on artists on artists. On the iHeard Radio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Okay, let's turn now to some of the negotiations that were happening. Yesterday was kind of a dizzying day of reporting. It initially appeared that Iran was willing to at least make some negotiation on nuclear issues. Put this up here on the screen. It originated from a Saudi outlet Al Hadith. Iran has agreed to halt uranium enrichment in exchange for US sanctions relief. The news comes minutes after reporting indicated that President Trump is willing to give Iran sanctions relief and release frozen Iranian funds in return for, quote, concrete steps regarding their nuclear program. Oil prices then turned negative on the news. And I believe actually remains so. So I'm looking right now, Brent crude, around $96 a barrel. It was at 108 sometime last week. So meaningful change actually there. And you will see some of that show up in gas prices relatively soon. So the all kind of sparked off of this report. Let's put the next one up here on the screen. Barack Ravid, who largely has been the mouthpiece for the administration, said US officials tell me President Trump is willing to give Iran sanctions relief and release the frozen funds for concrete progress on nuclear. Now, that is obviously what set this entire firestorm off until very late yesterday. Let's go to the next part. Trump released this true social post. Axios just released a story that Trump offered sanctions relief in frozen fronts to Iran. This is untrue. I offered them nothing. Axios' story, like most others, is a hoax used only for purposes of satisfying their Trump derangement syndrome. They should immediately withdraw this fake stories. This is a little bit of a head scratcher, right? Because Barack Ravid is somebody who is taking calls and literally often does. He'll be like, "President Trump tells me, "I mean, it's very obvious that Steve Whitkoff "and everybody else in the White House "leaked into the sky all the time, right?" So I don't think he made it up. And so where did it come from? My guess would be that this would be something behind the scenes which had been offered. Steve Whitkoff or one of these other people leaked it to Reveed probably for this purpose to lower oil prices. Trump sought, though, and doesn't wanna appear weak. So we're right back to where we've been this entire time. I don't know when these oil guys are gonna wake up. I just, I don't get it. They just, every single time-- - They take the fake. - They are just like, "Oh yeah, let's take it." I'm like, "Guys, at the end of the day, "you've seen this story a million times." I mean, what are you doing? And look, the bigger problem is that right now, we just don't have a grasp on what is happening. The propaganda is a wash in the US media. And I'll give everybody an example, A9. And I'm not gonna actually dismiss this all out completely. They say, "Iran Touts, Hormuz attacks as oil flows "increase despite tensions." So yesterday, if you spend any time online, the entire pro-war crowd is passing around this new post and analysis of something called Kepler data, right? And Kepler is one of those firms. They do real-time intelligence for markets and they've been trying to compile the amount of oil going through this trade of Hormuz. What they found, again, according to their data, is that Hormuz traffic has now returned roughly to pre-war levels, right? And so that would be a huge problem for Iran. That would mean their leverage on the straight has, you know, they've basically lost it. Now, when I say their leverage, they can still do pochots, et cetera, but that the US convoy system is working. And I don't think that that's actually a crazy thing to imagine after speaking with Sal, because Sal shows us how the full force of the US Navy is currently focused on getting oil out of the straight. I don't think anybody thought that Iran could shut this thing down completely. They can be a nuisance, they can be a menace, they can disrupt things. And we shouldn't say that any of this has come costless. It used to be a ship could sail right through. Now you've got armed US Marines, Black Hawk helicopters, everybody's moving under the cover of night. So this is not free, you know, in terms of the way that all this oil is coming out. And to sustain this would require tens of billions of dollars a month to keep it going. So let's make that very clear. Like whenever we say that what's happening, but at a military level, what you can see right now is that largely the Navy blockade of Iran seems to continue to operate very well. Iran has not been able to export any oil this morning. Again, a lot of the hawks are passing around. The Iranian reall sank to its all time low. So I'm insane $2.5 million reall to the dollar, you know, crazy exchange rate. So their economy, you know, they have real problems. Like let's not put that out of the realm whatsoever. The point though is that this is all was all being couched as in Iran was willing to negotiate because they're beginning to lose control of hormones. However, as we covered in our show yesterday, 19 ships were struck overnight. There were no ships there. So I just very, I really caution people to say, we really don't know. And it's not like the market is reliable to tell us about the amount of physical oil because it's so easily manipulated by these US officials, by propaganda, et cetera. I don't know what to make of it. - Well, and we're still at $100 a barrel. - Right, we're still at $100. - Yeah, let's see. - So it's not like the oil, crude oil prices are reflecting a pre-war reality. It's still much elevated over the pre-war reality. So that is some signal. I mean, I think it seems very clear that what Trump is trying to do is like job on his way through the midterms without things getting worse and ideally for him getting a little bit better in terms of gas prices. You actually have a number of governors, Republican governors in particular, Greg Abbott in Texas who was himself facing a very tough, unexpectedly tough reelection bid, declare state of emergency on diesel prices so that they could get rid of any state taxes and bring down prices even just a little bit. So they recognize this really dire. So in any case, I think Trump's plan is let me job on my way through the midterms and then after the midterms potentially go back to some sort of bombing campaign do something. The other factor that we haven't talked about as much recently in all of this is Israel because we're gonna talk about this later in the show, Netanyahu, who is a survivor of all survivors politically. He is the longest serving Prime Minister in Israeli history in spite of being constantly embroiled in all sorts of controversy and scandal, et cetera. He is facing very difficult reelection. He is under a lot of pressure because of some of these reports about his failures to do anything to stop October 7th in spite of receiving significant warnings from multiple directions, whether it's their country or his own intelligence service, other countries with his own intelligence services. So in any case, he may feel like I gotta do something before my election to secure my reelection, make sure that I can stave off the opposition. So there might be a lot of pressure coming from the Israelis in advance of midterms because this is his strategy of political survival. This is what he has done. When he is under political pressure or when he's facing corruption allegations, serious ones that could land him in prison, he goes and attacks them where and starts another war. And that's the way that he holds on to power and maintains some semblance of political support. So I think that's an important thing to just keep in mind that that's hanging out there as well. And as I said before, those elections are happening just before the American midterm elections. They're basically time to be at exactly the same time. So that's another factor to consider here. And obviously we saw at the beginning of this war, how influential by the admission of Marco Rubio and of course Joe Ken saying the same thing in his resignation letter, how influential Israeli opinion is about what we should be doing and how we should be conducting this war. - Great point, phenomenal point. I just wanna, you know, picking up a little bit on what we said yesterday where the Iranian strategy, like a lot of people fully trust that Iran's strategy because it got them to where they are now, has been the right move. But they are still in this weird strategic doldrum where yes, oil is 100. But that is not gonna kill the U.S. economy. It's just not. I mean, look, America's a very rich country. And at the end of the day, as horrible as $4 oil, and obviously I oppose all of this, like I don't think it should be any of this at all, we are surviving. Now, I'm not saying we're thriving, we're surviving. To beat the United States of America, you will have to make it completely intolerable. And a long war, even though, you know, yes, their population is on side, et cetera. Why? What has happened now? Like we've porn the full force of the empire into the straight of Hormuz. Of course that will work. I mean, nobody can stop that entirely. Is it sustainable? In my opinion, no, especially if something else happens. But they're just letting themselves, I think, get stuck in this position where if they don't do something soon, I think that things are beginning to tilt more in the US direction. I could be wrong. Of course, they still have escalation dominance and the ability to do, you know, really they need to decide are we all in or not? Like, you know, they keep you gollab off today. If we can't export oil, then nobody will. Dude, you've been saying that for like four months, right? And it's like, guess what? Saudi, Kuwait, they got US Marines on their tankers, they're exporting plenty of oil. Not enough, definitely not enough for the global market, but you're exporting some. So I don't know. I feel like they just got to put up a shut up at a certain point because they're getting grounded into the dust over a period of time. I'm not saying they're dead and I'm definitely not counting them out. But I do think, well, and honestly, this makes the situation much more dangerous. They've got to change the paradigm in some way. Exactly. It's not working. Very likely capable, though, we, you know, we have more insight, frankly, into the US military difficulties than we do into whatever is going on in the Iranian side. But yeah, I saw one of the officials was making a comment about, oh, we have these new weapons that we can unveil if things continue. And it's again, similar thing, like, okay, we've been hearing that the whole time. So, so we'll see if they just allow a status quo to continue that is much more punishing to their economy than it is to our economy, not to say that it's great. If they just sort of allow that to continue and hope for the best or whether they do something to try to change the strategic calculus. Agreed. Okay. We got to our friend Logan standing by. Let's get to him. Lisa, we should tell them about our new show. Oh, my God. Lexi. I'm Lexi, you want to wear two best friends 22 years apart, but so close at heart. And I'm Lisa Julio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions. I'm not going to get any worse than fighting. That is wild. We're going to talk about dating, relationships, beauty, getting older, and a little wiser. Obviously, I would do what I think I could do to fight the fight, but there's only so much fight I can fight. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Lier. I'm Lacey Mosley, author, actor, standup, comedian, creator, and host of scam goddess podcast. The true crime comedy podcast, all about robbery, fraud, and those who practice it. Each week I bring on incredible guests like Conan O'Brien, Iowa Debris, Lamor and Morris and Nicole Byer. Ooh, I scammed them. What? Call your grandparents, tell your parents to stop clicking on links, please. So if you like fun, if you like comedy, and you like learning and protecting yourself from criminals. I'm listening to Scam Goddess on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Scam Goddess! Hi, this is Kylie Breakman, Angel Jaretana, Jeremy Colhane Cash McDonald. And we're the hosts of the artists on artists on artists on artists podcast. The improvised character comedy podcast, where each week a new panel of artists discuss their craft. I don't know. I think you guys heard of foe journaling. Yeah. It's reading. It's called reading. Yeah. So we don't like to use that word anymore. Okay. Okay. No! I've been dying too. I'm so sorry. I'm seeing a reading of Sadako in the Thousand Paper Cranes by Audrement Donalds at the Wonderland Bookstore on 14th. That's crazy. No way. Patrick of the last bookstore though, Kim Catrol is reading the guitar tabs of yesterday. You get up. I hear you. You get the elbows here. The eyelashes hate each other. Listen to artists, on artists, on artists, on the iHeard Radio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, we are joined once again by our great friend Logan Phillips of Race the White House to Breakdown. Breakdown, the very latest in terms of the midterm elections, great sea Logan. Good sea man. Great to be on. Yeah, of course. So we wanted to dig into a couple of really interesting developments here. Let's put this first one up on the screen. You have a report from the Wall Street Journal that Democrats led by Chuck Schumer are actually urging Democratic donors to put money into the Mississippi Senate race. You have an incumbent Republican there because, of course, you do. It's a, you know, a state that has went some 20 plus points for Trump. However, the polling has been scanned and Democrats are feeling very confident. And some of the rationale that's offered in this piece is that maybe we won't win this time, but maybe we can do some good work building something for the future. And what do you make of this is this just like preposterous thing for Democrats to be throwing money at this year and a year, especially when they are really being outspent by Republicans or since there's some there, there in terms of their political calculations. Well, I think this is one of those states where they are asking outside donors who are necessarily giving the money directly to the party that the party is then redistributing into this race. So it's less of a sacrifice. It's not in the area where the party itself is going to spend, especially as you said in a year where they're getting outspent by so much. Now ever, I think the thinking is, this is one of those cycles that has potential to have a random racer too that just shocks the country. You'll certainly definitely see some of those in the house unless it ends up being way smaller way than we think. But the real question is, if this ends up being huge, if you put a little money into some of these places, it might make the difference between, oh, you actually had a chance because maybe there's a surge in black turnout or maybe this is the year. White voters are a little less polarized and Mrs. Hippy due to the economic concerns. And so I wouldn't look at it as just Mrs. Hippy is looking at all of these types of races, Mrs. Hippy, South Carolina, etc. Even though I think South Carolina is a lot more likely, combine maybe one of them crosses the line. Interesting. So what's the big question to me, this is what Mrs. Hippy yesterday covered, South Carolina. This just feels like hubris. You know, Crystal brought up a very good point yesterday about how Hillary in retrospect, you could say, you didn't even go to Wisconsin, you're spending money in New Mexico. There's something about this which just seems outrageous, obviously in our current political paradigm. But what are you seeing just in the numbers, like what does your gut tell you about some of these different plays? >> My gut tells me that Mrs. Hippy is going to go right, right? I can give you the reasons of what it would take for Democrats to win, if you'd like. >> Yeah, dollars. Okay, sure. So in 2024, this is completely different than the rest of the country where normally Republicans cleanly won white voters, but it's a very competitive block. Mrs. Hippy, not so much. They won 17% for Democrats, 82% for Republicans. And black voters were literally the opposite, 82% for Democrats, 17% for Republicans. And so. >> You can leave it out for now. >> So for Democrats to break through here, they're going to have to need, in my view, at least 20% percent of white voters. They're going to have to get black turnout up from 32 to 36%. And they're going to have to win some of those black voters under 45 who want it over to Republicans. And not the last one, that's the easiest of them to do because Gen Z voters are down on Republicans. >> Right. >> But I think for the first one with white voters, which is the hardest part by far, these voters are voting much more along cultural means, like A, it's evangelical, and that's a huge part of it, like much higher percentage of evangelicals here in the most of the country. But that doesn't explain all of it, right? There's a reason that Cinehide Smith is talking a lot about transgender issues. And so essentially, you need Scott Collins' argument, the Democrat, where he's saying like he's talking about Medicaid, he's talking about the cuts to Medicaid that Cinehide Smith voted for could shut down all these rural hospitals, and that's a huge concern. Essentially, you need the voters to say like why are we talking about these issues that really have no impact on their life at all when you're taking away some of the key services that in a place that's as poor as Mississippi people are lying a lot more than they do in most of the country. >> Yeah, so we actually pulled some of their ads to give a flavor of what you're talking about. And so you have Cinehide Smith is the incumbent Republican long time state level legislator as well. So well-known in the state, presumably very tied in with like the farmers in the rural areas, least among the white population. And then you have Scott Colom, who is a district attorney, who is the challenger here. And so the ad we pulled from him is sort of like, he actually talks about the Epstein Files is kind of funny. Sort of like giving a permission structure for some of the white voters who previously We're voting Republican. to maybe change their vote or just be disenchanted and stay home. And then her ad, she's calling him the quote unquote, transgender defender. So let's go ahead and take a listen to the two of those 'cause I think it lays out your argument pretty well. - I voted Republican for 20 years, but I won't this November. When Cindy Hyde Smith voted to block the release of the Epstein files, I was shocked. It's just wrong to protect billionaire pedophiles from being held accountable. If Cindy Hyde Smith will not stand up against child abuse, she won't stand up for Mississippi. Cindy Hyde Smith has lost her way and that's why I'm voting for Scott Cologne. Scott Cologne for U.S. Senate because Mississippi matters. - I'm Cindy Hyde Smith and I approve this message. - So you can see Scott Cologne's calculation there is, he needs to persuade some previous white Republican voters to vote for him. Do you think that that is feasible and plausible in this year? - Yes, and I do think he will. The problem is enough. - Yeah. - I think that's the right way to do it. - I think that's enough. - Yeah. - Do I think he has a chance? - Yeah. I do see some signs in how they're overperforming in some of these governor races. Cindy Hyde Smith is the lowest-hanging fruit of the GOP and Mrs. Hippy. She only won by 10% last time. - Oh, wow. - Interesting. - And that is in a year where Donald Trump won by like 16, 17. - Right. - Well, he went back in 2020. - Yeah. - Oh. - So the problem is like, 2020 wasn't like a bad year for Democrats. It was worse than the House and Senate races than the presidential. But the gap alone between what we're going to see this year and what happened that year isn't going to be enough to push it over, right? She's going to have to underperform even more. Or it's going to have to be much bigger wave than we think. - The fact it was 10 points actually is making me think, huh, because I mean, I don't think it's crazy to imagine a 10 points wing in favor of Democrats, just given the level of disenchantment with them. So, you know, I would say still very much a long shot, but it makes it feel a little bit less crazy to me that she was such an underperformer previously. - Yeah, I mean, there's also a difference in opinion among people like me. I have it at like 11%, Nate Silver has it, I think at like two or three percent. My thinking is, one of the things my model does is when there's like different indicators pointing in opposite directions, it starts to increase the uncertainty in the race and say, okay, something could be wrong here. You know, like the most likely outcome is a clean Republican win. Here's a possibility for things to go, hey, why are you here? - Interesting. Can we, let's talk about the models and, you know, again, to this discussion, can we put B4 on the screen? I talked about this yesterday. Chris and I had a big discussion about it. I'm curious for years. So this was Luxjarjane. I, this kind of set the polling, you know, election sphere on fire. He said, our model is built on a lot of polling, including our own. It really bothers me how absurdly different the drop off of white respondents are in our polling. White two completed our polls swing 10% to the left. White two don't barely swing at all. I'm guessing this is not unique to our polling. If the model whiffs badly, it'll probably whiff on whites. And it would mean that far more lower propensity are showed up to vote. And, you know, to TLDR for people. That is the same thing that has happened in every polling miss in the last decade. Like 2016 on, it's like for some reason they just can't poll working class whites and specifically like lower propensity, Republican lean-ish voters. And that kind of comes to my mind when we're talking about Mississippi, South Carolina. Before the show, we were all talking about these Marist polls, right? Like Ohio, for example. They, what is it, the generic ballot for Democrats? They have it like 50% right? And Republicans under a couple. This is a state where even in a bad year for Democrats, or for Republicans, JD's winning the state by six. People are like, oh guy, he underperformed, right? It's like, okay, he won the state by six points. I'm just pointing out like that one particular race. So there is a fancifulness to a lot of this type of polling which just given my experience looking at this over the last decade. I have a lot of questions about a potential same error, especially white college edge-educated Democrats. Everything that Trump has done is like poster child of like everything they don't want to do. So they're going to be the most motivated to answer polls and to be upset. But we don't have enough of a sense of like what the rest of the country potentially feels. We have an idea, but we don't know for sure. How are you thinking about this question? Yeah, I think it's a great point. Yeah, I would say Democrats should be feeling confident going into election day, but they also should be aware that there's a chance for things to go wrong here. Because think about it, right? Almost every single state it seems like in the country that is remotely competitive. Democrats have like a zero to five percent lead in. That's true for Ohio. That's true for Kansas. That's true for Maine. That's true for Michigan. That's true for Iowa, Texas. So if things really go south, it could go badly. Okay. That being said, there's a chance it goes in the other direction on that same logic. Absolutely. Absolutely. Because pollsters are trying really hard to correct, not to over-correct. They're trying to just correct for this. And if the drop-off in response rate is reflective of the fact that these voters are depressed about what's happening because he is underperforming a lot on average. Well, almost every group, but that includes rule voters and includes white working class voters. Right. But it could be a sign that they're just not going to turn out in the same rate. Good points. No, it's not vote. Yeah, as well. Wasn't the midterm election in 2022, everyone thought red wave, red wave, red wave was not a red wave. No. The polling mess was in the other direction. Yes. So what has been the story of the polling messes in midterms? Because it seems to me like when Trump is on the ballot is when you most see this dynamic of a lot of infrequent voters who aren't being picked up by the pollsters show up to vote that were not included in any of the calculus. Yeah, I was actually talking to the pollster for Quantus who is a smart guy at Leanne's Republican. And we were talking about, I personally have a theory that the reason the polling messes a lot bigger, especially for the Senate races in presidential years, is because there's a lot of Trump voters that don't love the GOP, but they're going to choose the GOP if they have to. And so they're saying they're undercited going into the election and that's not necessarily even a polling mess. It's like now that I'm here, I guess I'll vote for Cindy Hyde-Smith versus I love Cindy Hyde-Smith. And so like they're going to underrate that, right? Because those undecideds who are Trump voters are going to break very hard for Republicans. Some of those voters maybe just don't turn out in midterms. Right. Here's the other thing. And put B3 up on the screen. I don't know if you saw this. This is anecdotal. But I feel like these are different anecdotes than we've gotten in previous elections, where it genuinely looks like some of Trump's previous hard-core supporters are questioning or have actively moved and feel the sense of betrayal over a combination of whether it's the terrorists, the Epstein files, the war. Actually, I think the Epstein files is a big part of this. But Politico talked to some of what they call Front Road Joe's, which was a roving ban to, they say, of the president's most ardent supporters who would compete with each other to show up as many Trump rallies as they possibly could. And they talked to a couple of them and have completely turned on Trump. So this one woman, Trisha Hope, she says that Trump is a fraud and a liar, Rick Frazier, another one of them says he can't be trusted. They say, Hope joined the Front Road Joe's in 2018 after publishing a book of Trump's posts on Twitter called Just the Tweets, which helped paper travel to rallies across the country in RV. She bought after giving up her apartment in Texas. During his impeachment, she spent two weeks in Washington, Roman Capital Hill to defend the president. Now she says the one scenario that would bring her back to Washington for Trump's sake, if we do lose the midterms and he's impeached, I will be walking halls of Congress in support of that impeachment. And you had, you know, a similar story from Rick Frazier, who's just completely disenchanted with the situation as well. They hope actually named Epstein files as she describes it as a quote, "Dagger in my heart." It was like a light switch went on, a veil lifted. I saw him for who he was, I've not been able to unsee it since. Okay, anecdotal. However, we do see that within the Republican Party, you now have more people saying, I'm a Republican not a Trump supporter. Like that's where my primary loyalty is. You do see a huge erosion in the number of people that say they strongly support Trump. You have a lot more tepid support there. And then you just have the economic numbers, where some of his strongest supporters are the people that are getting screwed the hardest, because of the choices that he has made. So it does, if this midterm ends up being more of a wave, then we have seen more than the typical sort of like partisan swing backlash. These types of people, to me, will be the story of why that happens. Yeah, you know, I think the best way to think about the Epstein files is it's not what most voters are thinking about when they're going into the polls, but it was the moment that Trump lost the benefit of the Delta. It was a catalyst. Yeah, exactly. That has been his superpowers, the benefit of the Delta controversy after controversy. People assume he's fighting for the right reasons. Right. And he's going to have their back even if they don't like everything. But at that point, it was something where people almost everyone, like 80% of the country could say, like, this is clearly wrong. Why is he doing it? And it created an opportunity for future things to be viewed in a much more negative light. Much like Afghanistan did for Biden or sometimes positions that Democrats have an Israel do for voters under the age of 35. - Lisa, we should tell them about our new show. - My God, Lexi, we have a new podcast. I'm Lexi Iwanyu, we're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart. - I'm not gonna get any words I'm fighting. - That is wild. - Now in my 30s, being the founder of New Shoes, - Good taste is my business. - If man were just honest about this, there would be so much more peace in the world. - We're gonna talk about dating, relationships, beauty, getting older, and a little wiser. - We're best friends, but we don't always agree. - Because you told us how accommodating you are. - Obviously, I would do what I think I could do to fight the fight, but there's only so much fight I can fight. - Don't lie to me. - Don't lie to me. - Don't lie to me. - Lier. - Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I don't really care. - Hi, this is highly breakman, Angel Jaretana. - Jeremy Colhane, Patrick McDonald. - And we're the hosts of the artists on artists on artists on artists podcast. - The improvised character comedy podcast where each week a new panel of artists discuss their craft. - Join us for a panel of wellness influencers. - What I try to do is foe journal. I don't know, have you guys heard of foe journaling? - Yeah, it's reading, it's called reading. - Yeah, so we don't like to use that word anymore. - Okay. - A panel of New Yorker cartoonists. - Have you guys done Terry Gross's Peloton class? - No! - I've been dying too. - I'm so sorry, I'm seeing a reading of Sadako in the Thousand Paper Cranes by Audrement Donalds at the Wonderland bookstore, '14. - That's crazy. I went to the Wonderland bookstore yesterday and I heard Nora Jones do a reading of Zero Doc 30. - No way. - We have to have the last bookstore though. Kim Katrol is reading the guitar tabs of yesterday. - A panel of Eurovision participants. - And we do a little Halloween sometimes. - Does the pope dress up? - He winks on Halloween. - He gets rid of next and a microphone. - I hear he'll get the ovals here, the eyelashes hit each other. - You've never seen Italy so quiet as when the pope gets up to wink on Halloween. - Listen to artists on artists on artists. - On the IHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. - I'm Lacey Mosley, author, actor, stand-up, comedian, creator, and host of Scam Goddess Podcast. - The True Crime Comedy Podcast, all about robbery, fraud, and those who practice it. - Each week I bring on incredible guests like Conan O'Brien, Iowa Debris, Lamor and Morris, and Nicole Byer. - Ooh, I scammed them. - What? - I could talk to you for an hour. - You're a generational yapper, like me. - And the scams run the gamut. - I'm talking about scams from the 1800s, all the way up to today. - I also warn you and keep you safe against scammers. - Call your grandparents. - Tell your parents to stop clicking on links, please. - And now you can catch full episodes of my show on YouTube. - If there's a scam, I'm here to protect you. - And I'm also here to laugh with you. - So if you like fun, if you like comedy, and you like learning and protecting yourself from criminals, start listening to scam goddess on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. - Scam goddess! - Let's take a look at Ohio, or sorry, Iowa, where Trump recently announced yesterday in the Oval Office, kind of interesting, Ashley Hinson, the candidate there. She had previously been like, hey, this war needs to end. I'm working with Democrats, but apparently Trump, I guess, dragged her to the Oval Office. I don't know if that's to her benefit or not, to announce some new $15 billion steel plant. And he was asked about some of this. Let's take a listen. - And now we're gonna continue to be a part of the American manufacturing story. And with 1700 jobs, I just think about the countless opportunities for Iowa families, and what this means for them. It is a game changer for our state, and frankly for the country. And if you look at the jobs numbers that you've been posting every single month, they're not government growth jobs. They're private sector jobs. And that is what is so critical for our economy, to move our economy forward. The working families tax cuts, the certainty that we provided families. I think we should make those all permanent, because people love them, and we need to make sure that they can rely on those going forward, Mr. President. So thank you for what you and the entire team did to solidify this investment in American greatness and American manufacturing. - Well, and I'm gonna come to Iowa. I got more votes than anybody in history during the last election. All three, I was up, up, up, up. And I think I'm more popular than now that I was then. - Why Republicans do you think having the work so hard to put on the seats? - I don't know, I've always been very strong with Iowa. There's been some things that the Democrats have done that are very bad for our country. They had high prices, I reduced the prices, but they like to say affordability, but they're the ones that caused the affordability problem. They're the ones that caused all of these problems, and they were unwilling to stop her in from having a nuclear weapon. They said, "Let somebody." So of course I can say that about many people, we have stopped them from having a nuclear weapon and they understand that, and they're willing to say that. But I'm surprised, the polls are fake. - What do you think? - I think that Trump needs to work on making the American people feel that he has heard their concerns. But he can't, because then that would invalidate everything that he's done. - Yes, and that's his biggest problem also in general is that he can't admit that he's not perfect. And voters, I mean, oh my gosh, Kennedy, after he completely blew the bay of pigs in one of the biggest foreign policy mistakes in American history. He's a proven reading search because he said, "I messed up, Americans will love when you can be humble." Especially if you're not, it doesn't sound like a normally. I agree, that's not what happened. - It wasn't at all, I don't want to go to this room, but it wasn't at all. - It wasn't at all, it wasn't. - Yeah, I think that's the antithesis of the Trumpian quality. So what he would say back to you is this is the way I've been operating, you know, never say, never say you're sorry, keep barreling forward. And that's the way that he's ended up in the White House for two times. - What I've learned from Tucker, he believes he's touched by God. Basically, right, you know, or whatever, some force, I don't know about God, but he believes he's been touched because you see this in his comments about Iran. He's like, it's gonna work out, it always does, you know? People die, it happens, you know? You know, we all gotta die some way. - To be honest, I mean, every time that they counted him out, he has won 2016, the indictments, 2020, to impeachments. I mean, you know, he won the popular vote. Like you can understand, the psychology of somebody who were a bullet misses you by millimeters to that could have blown your brains out and then you become the president, right? So all of this is understandable from like a, you know, from a far away distance, but in this particular instance, it does seem like, okay, it's cooked. But that's part of why I've just heard it so many times that it's really hard to reconcile with like, wow, well, Trump is going to Iowa and, you know, candidate behavior, I guess that's a bit of a real question. How indicative is candidate behavior? Like do they really have better data than us? 'Cause there's always an assumption like, oh, they must have better data. The internals, and I'm like, well, you know, internals are kind of bullshit sometimes. Ashley Henson's behavior seems to indicate what we see in the national mood, but having seen this story before, sometimes these candidates just know just as much as we do, they're all on Twitter reading the same polls. - I think they know more about their race because we're only focusing on everything. - That's true. - I also think that the data there, seeing is a lot better than the data they're releasing because they're not going to release, they're either like Roy Cooper trying to convince everyone that no North Carolina is still like this close and-- - Yeah. - Got to spend money here. - You're going to get their releases polls that I have to turn off the bias for the internal polls because they're going in the other way. - That's funny, that's interesting. - Right, yeah. - And like, but normally, you know, they're only gonna show things that make them look good. But their actual data's gonna be a lot more substantive and they also have qualitative data where they're talking to voters all the time. - That's true. - And they have a whole network of people talking to them about their seeing in their community. So I do think they know a lot more than we do. - They're making calls, they're knocking doors. - Right. - They're marking down. And this Republican is now sitting on the fence. They're now voting with a Democrat, so they do have that sort of granular knowledge. You know, sorry, back to your broader point though. I actually think the thing that is most unique about this term is this is the time that political gravity has finally actually caught up with Donald Trump and the rules of politics, which are not on cloud like the rules of physics are starting to actually affect him in almost everything. When he is, because he's completely ignoring polls, what voters think, he surrounded himself with a cocoon of Natalie Harp lights or telling him what he wants to hear. And the one time, as they're finally trying to make him look at some negative press, he starts banning those networks into response, right? And so I think that like, if you do things, voters really don't like, you make their lives worse and then you pretend that everything is fine and you keep going further with another trade war of Canada. People are gonna be thrilled about it. - But why that why, right? I've seen him do so many things, right? Why this? Like I could rationally get understand. Okay, finally inflation, etc. We had high inflation in COVID. Like, you know, it's not like 2020 was a dream year. Exactly, he won a ton of votes. So I'm just like, what makes this all that different? - Yeah, no, it's fair. First of all, it's a midterm. - Yeah. - And that you're fighting losing battle to begin with. Second of all, I mean, he did lose on 2020, yeah. And then third, it doesn't mean that he's now gonna lose everyone. It just means like, even if there's a big polling mess, like he is, you can understand to a degree. Like I think the patient's wore out on COVID for Biden eventually. But he hadn't yet fully people understood what was happening. And here it's like, this isn't forces beyond Trump's control. That's causing these problems. It's like, wow, this guy literally campaigned on lowering my prices. >> Yeah, I think that's a really important part. Because COVID, you could be handling of it was bad in a lot of ways. But it wasn't his fault. He didn't cause COVID. He reacted poorly to something that was thrust upon him. The Iran war, that's all him. And by the way, in these farm states, the tariffs are a big deal too, which we can't lose sight of. That was like a first economic blow that maybe farmers were willing to kind of live. Maybe there's a plan here. But then once you get hit with frickin' $67 diesel prices, you're going under. In fact, we can put this Actio's report up on the screen. We'll add this in post about how they're seeing a farm crisis. The headline here is "Brace for losing everything." Farm crisis fears grip, GOP in Iowa. And so when you have a combination of year being screwed and it's very clear who to blame. And I do think the Epstein piece was an eye opener for a lot of people. Because it went so contrary to the brand that he had cultivated among his own base, of I'm going to be the one to come in and expose all the wrong dewers and clean house and drain the swamp. And then when push comes to the shove, to shove, not only are you doing the cover-up, your name's all over that thing, turns out you were Jeffrey Epstein's bestie. So I think it was very, and they never really came up with a story that was going to land on that. They just kind of moved on. So I do think that opened some eyes. And then when you look at your own material conditions, it creates a very different landscape than what we've seen before. And the reason why, you know, I'm not buying that they're going to win misses, that Democrats are going to mississippi or Kansas or these things, although I don't think it's completely insane to think it. But the reason why has less to do with the polls, more to do with the way we see the candidates acting. Trump is going to campaign in Texas and Iowa and Alaska, like these are places that should not be on the table. And that's where his people are sending him saying, "Well, you got to do what you can in these places." So you see that, you see the way the candidates are behaving. And then you also see these special election results. When real voters have showed up at the polls, the swing towards Democrats has been enormous. So to me, when I put that together with the polling data, which continues, by the way, just to get worse and worse for Republicans, the generic ballot keeps widening in favor of Democrats, et cetera, when I look to that, to put all of that together, I say, "This seems like this is a real phenomenon that's happening." Yeah, I think so too. And look, I have a little system that I build for my forecast that takes all the special elections in the country and what happened in the Alaska Open Primary, California, in Washington. And that number collectively, which suggested D+8 cycle. And since then, the GOP's polling has fallen off the cliff. Got it. So, I don't know for sure what's going to happen. I think we all should be humbled after we've seen three presidential elections where there's been a big mis against Democrats, I mean, overrating Democrats, but there's a lot of indicators suggesting that it's bad for Republicans and the polls can still miss a lot, they can still be bad for Republicans. So, I'm looking at your forecast on the Senate. Let's talk about this. You've got 70% chance of Senate majority. That's very bullish, I think, for, you know, compared to some of the other ones. Your mean projected seats is 52.5. You even have Texas lean D. So, talk through some of those phrases for us. Saga, that D for Texas makes me nervous. It's all quantitative. I'm confident. Yeah, yeah. It's a toss-up and effective as lean D. That would be a weird map, yeah. You know what? Voters are getting depolarized to some degree in this particular electorate. I think that they don't like either party and so maybe we're having more decision-makers that are basing it off of candidates. That's a good point. Yeah, I think about that. Yeah, maybe this is the beginning. You also have very different demographics Texas versus Maine. Maine is like, literally, I think, the whitest state in the country. Texas is majority of minority. Yeah, like we talked about last week, Latino voters are, seem, along with Gen Z, men or the groups that are swinging the furthest against Republicans relative to the last presidential election. And so, that's what creates an opportunity in a state like Texas, but it's also Susan Collins is Joe Manchin, basically, except she's a Republican. Yeah. This is a very hard person to beat. Right. What about Alaska? So, you have Alaska as a toss-up. You actually have Peltola at 56 percent chance. You want to talk through some of the dynamics there? Yeah. I think there's two things in Alaska that are particularly important here, right? And this is a very small state. I know it's the biggest state, but it's also one of the smallest. States in population. It's fish, and it's the price of gas, which is really hurting Alaskans who often need to buy a lot in advance. And then- It's $5 a gallon. Yes. And, you know, their price of fish, which is the vast majority of the food that Alaskans eat, has gone up and there's a massive fishing industry there that has been crushed by climate change. I think there's any place where climate change is hurting the U.S. the most. It is Alaska. And it actually has caused the state to be the fastest moving state in the country to Democrats. It's not the only reason, but it's a big part of it. Interesting. It used to be like 20 points to the right of the country, plus. Now it's like 12 to 10, and it's been moving at such a fast rate, it probably will continue. Interesting. I just wanted to say, I pulled up Nate Silver's model, a very similar percentage likelihood of Democratic control of the Senate to years at 71 percent for Nate Silver. So, very interesting stuff we could talk to you all day, but instead we'll just have you back next week. So, we can dig into some other races and some other dynamics that are unfold and great to see what we're taking. Raise to the White House. So, check it out. Logan is the best. Thank you, man. Thanks, guys. Great to be on. [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] Lisa, tell them about our new show. I'm Lexi Iwaneo, we're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart. And I'm Lisa de Julio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions, and at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. [Music] Hi, this is Kylie Breakman, Angel Jaretana, Jeremy Colhane, Patrick McDonald. And we do a little Halloween sometime. He gets right up next to the microphone. I hear you'll get the bubbles here, the eyelashes hit each other. Listen to artists on artists on artists on artists every Thursday on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Lisa Mosley, author, actor, stand-up comedian, creator, and host of SCAM Goddess Podcast. Ooh, I scammed them. What? Start listening to SCAM Goddess on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Guaranteed Human.