🔮 8 Undervalued Players To Target In Week 3

We are back for what I am calling macro Thursdays. We got three shows on tap during this streaming block. We're kicking things off with Mike Want, Alex Cups from Fantasy Life. We're gonna be looking at some interesting usage trends through the first two weeks and specifically applying that to guys who might be undervalued in DFS, who might be undervalued with some of their prop lines that we can take a look at. Then at 11 a.m. Eastern, we will have BRIC 75 joining for Lolls. We got some fun topics on tap there and then batting clean up. We got Lord Reeves. He has flagged some interesting matchups from week three to look at and we'll see if we can follow up his awesome Blake Korum, longest rush prop that hit last week. I'm Pete, macro Thursdays, and let's get ready with Mike Want. Oh, you know what, oh my God, I uploaded the wrong one, oh my goodness, I had two things on my desktop. This is how good this is, Alex, I'm gonna bring you into the show and I'm gonna download the right one. I can't believe I did that. How are you doing today, brother? Oh, man, I'm good. I was loving when I was seeing it, but I thought we were starting straight off with the clip. That was so good. Well, so funny is because in the new intro that I am going to get downloaded and uploaded here in a second, there is clips from the Best Ball Bros video. So the thumbnail on my desktop that I had downloaded, it looked correct but that I uploaded the wrong one here. So good. I got so much burn out of those clips because it's like first it was Colar and the joke who go to IR. So then I had the one of Ronda Gatson and Ronda Gatson and then Charlie Colar gets the psych out. He's not going to IR. So then I have the version where he slips up and says, you know, Charlie Colar at the end. But yes, okay, here it is officially time to do a show with my Billy Bean had Paul D. Podesta, Davis Maddick. That's Mike Clay. It's about time you had your own quant. It's a lot of talk about quants that say it is out there. My quantitative. My quantitative. I loved the pitch of being my quant. We're kicking things off with my quant, Alex Cubs, my quant, Alex Cubs is joining me now. There we go. That's fire. That's fire. Very fun. We have Zach Lanars as always with the edit there. Now that I finally found my footing GMs to everyone in the chat, we will be doing some coffee giveaways this morning as well. But Cubs, let's dive right in. We are emerging from week two. Have another set of, you know, data to work with some of those things like confirming what we thought from week one, you know, guys like Parker Washington and Bucky Irving, you know, continuing their usage trends and then there's some stuff that's like a little noisy. You know, what do we do with Isaiah likely, you know, him coming down to earth after week one. That's what we're going to dig into. But what are the things you're thinking about right now, kind of from a macro perspective on how to marry what we saw in week two with week one? Yeah, I mean, I think the utilization score, that's one thing that we're going to talk a lot about today. For anyone that doesn't know the utilization score, it's a proprietary score at fantasy life that Dwayne McFarland actually came up with super awesome score. It takes into account not only like, you know, the caries and the touches for these players and where they occur on the field, are they on the red zone, are they inside the five, that sort of thing, but also what plays are they on the field for and what read are they, you know, stuff like that. So not just where they get the ball, but also where they could potentially get the ball in the future that they didn't get the ball in a certain place. So it's a very complex score that gives us a really good look at, you know, how this player is being utilized by their offense. On a scale of zero to 100, you can see here, I can make this a little bigger as well. Let's see. How's that? So yeah, maybe one more boost here for us. One more boost, okay. Good? Yes. All right. Cool. So what we have here is a little, we're going to be talking DFS today, and I guess I should preface with that. We're going to be talking about salaries and how they relate to utilization score. We're going to be trying to find the biggest deltas between the players that have been leveraged and utilized by their teams in effective ways that are conducive with scoring fantasy points. And then we're going to be talking about their prices. Are they priced correctly? Do they feel like they should be more expensive, less expensive, that sort of thing? So we're going to go into every position here, wide receiver running back, tight end, and kind of see what sticks out to us. How does that sound? Yeah. Sounds good. And also, you know, the other thing with all of this, you know, we're recording this on a Thursday morning, there's lots of moving parts with injury stuff. So we're going to do our best to kind of focus on what we know, obviously, with some of these plays, like a guy like Rashad Bateman, right, has awesome usage. Last week, if Zay Flowers goes this week, you know, that's going to be a much different role for him. So we'll try to navigate that accordingly here. But yeah, I say we start with the running backs from week one, we have some salaries pulled up here as well. Who's the first guy that kind of stands out to you, you know, salary relative to utilization? Yeah. So the first one that I wanted to talk about, and you can see, I'm sorted here by salary. So we have the most expensive guys on the Sunday. I guess this is, I combined Thursday and Sunday slate, just so we have guys on and stuff we can talk about. And the Thursday stuff today too, if we want to, but the first guy that I'd like to talk about would be Breeze Hall, going up against the Lions, coming in at $6,400 this week, that is RB 14 out of the 106 that they have, salaries set for. So Breeze Hall, 81.2 utilization score through two weeks. That's a really, really solid number. So if you're familiar with the utilization score, you'll see like, you know, the top of the league. You got B, Jean, Jameer Gibbs. These guys are in the 90s. You actually have Aston Gentee as the number one utilized running back. That's what I absolutely love to see. But basically in the 90s, you know, you're elite, you're an absolute stud. Those guys, I think historically average like 22 plus points per game, like insane numbers, right? And then you get down into the 80s and these are like your mid-range RB 1s, Breeze Hall being at 81.2, very solid, hasn't it, RB 11 so far through two weeks? I love Breeze Hall at his current price. So 6,400, like I said, RB 14, his utilization score has him at 81.2, that's RB 11, so there is a bit of a delta there. Also, I'm not just comparing salary directly to utilization score because they're not like, it's not a super easily comparable number and what I did basically is I took salary and created like a number, basically, this is the implied utilization score of someone with this salary and where they should be coming in in utilization. So someone like Breeze Hall priced at 6,400 on average, that's going to come in with a utilization score for running back at 70.7. So we get a solid discount on a player with Breeze Hall's utilization and he's going up against the Lions this week who are 31st and defense first position against running backs. You can see I have personally at the RB 13 this week, fantasy life DVP adjusted for the matchup against the Lions has him at RB 6, so a very solid play I think at 6,400. Yeah, and you know, you're trying to find these spots where, you know, he's coming off of the game where he didn't score touchdown, he was pretty inefficient on the ground, the weather issues 16 for 29 yards, but he still has the five targets for 63 and now we head to a much come fear and cozier game environment here in the dome. They should be in a trailing script again. And even though he is losing some of the snaps, I can quickly toggle over here to his usage, you know, 59% of the snaps, week one, 65% in week two, but still when he's on the field, he's getting the touches. Right? 70% of the rush attempts, 43% of the routes, you know, 15% target share last week. So that role is basically everything you want out of a bell cow back there, 83 utilization score this past week. So yeah, I love how everything sets up. And the other thing that's exciting about a breeze hall play is he does have the explosive play in him. We know that if he gets a little space, gets to the scene like he can take it to the house. We just haven't quite seen that this year. So I still think there's the like, you know, breeze hall, not quite, you know, an upper echelon running back. But I think on the fast track in Detroit, I'm pretty excited to play him in a lot of formats this week. Yeah, absolutely. And also, I feel like we're kind of discounting the fact that the jets look reasonably good. You know, like they're not the jets of the past couple of years. And we've seen breeze hall produce like have explosion games in the offense when it was terrible. So imagine a jets offense where they get, you know, 50% more goal line carries, more in like red zone carries. I think breeze hall really sets up well, especially against the Lions who have just been absolutely brutal on defense this year so far. Yeah, I'm seeing, you know, his rushing yards on underdog 59 and a half receiving yards 24 and a half. I don't see a full scrimmage yard line there. But the nice thing about breeze, at least in DFS, where you're not trying to guess where he's getting his production is you have multiple outs and he's insulated to a super negative game script because he's going to be out there catching passes or he's insulated. The jets are keeping it close and he's having, you know, some success on the ground. So that's what I love about breeze hall here. As far as, I think he's fun to compare to someone like Bucky Irving as well, a guy who I think has a similar role. People may be wondering, you know, is this a bell cow type profile? Let's switch over here and what are you seeing with Bucky's usage relative? tip to his salary this week? - Yeah, so Bucky, right below breeze here in terms of salary, but you can see we're getting technically a much bigger delta in terms of the value with Bucky. 20.7 between his implied utilization and his actual utilization at 89.5. So I actually wrote up Bucky, I believe in an article that's gonna be coming out soon on fantasy life as one of my favorite buys across all fantasy. I don't know even know if you call him a buy lower, buy highs, kind of just been a back-end RB1, but the utilization suggests that he could be better than that finishes the top six running back this year, something like that. You can see actually, yeah, his utilization at 89.5 has him at RB6 so far on the year. And if you look at the names above him, it's just like these are all the guys that we're so excited about, right? These are the ones we drafted in the first round, Kenneth Walker at the one to turn, looking like an absolute smash Bucky, getting him in the fourth of the fifth. So getting him in that area, and now he's at the RB6 utilization, I feel really, really good about Bucky. The one thing with Bucky this week specifically, like, you know, this does look like a good value, right? When you compare utilization to salary, but Minnesota at first in DVP against running backs, like, Minnesota is insane. They've so far led up through two weeks, like we've officially flipped from using historical data for DVP to now using 2026 data only. Minnesota has led up negative 10.25 points less to the running back position over two weeks than the average team. So obviously we're not docking that all from Bucky, but it does drop him from RB15 projections at fantasy life to RB29, just based on this matchup specifically. So I think we can't just completely disregard the matchup against Minnesota in week three for him. And there's probably a little bit of noise in the Minnesota stats, not saying they're good defense, but coming off again a really crazy weather game that limited all kinds of, you know, play volume, explosive plays, et cetera. So it's probably looking a little better than what it is, but I do think that's a good point. You know, one thing working in these guys's favor and I just just pull up the early established the run projected ownership for the running back position this week, Bucky is sub 10% and Breeze Hall is 6%. There's just so many strong plays this week, you know Kenneth Walker Gibbs, James Cook, Jenty who will, we'll hit on in a second, McCaffrey, Derek Henry, too, but like it's going so deep that people might not get to guys like Bucky in Breeze. And you know, what did we see happen last week in DFS? It was like there were no nuclear running back scores and you needed to have a JSN, a CD-LAM, a Jamar chase in your lineup. So it gives you the potential to flip the build with these guys who have elite utilization, who haven't just busted through yet for that 25, 30 point game. I think both of them could do it in this spot. - Yeah, absolutely. And you make a good point about like Minnesota, probably thrown off a little bit. They had the weather game and before that, I think was it the Packers they played? And we've seen what the Packers offensive line and their running room looks like right now with like Marshawn Lloyd and stuff. So I would expect this number to definitely go down this 10.25, but yeah, they do look good. I'm just not sure how good. They're not going to be this level every week. - As we get into some more players, let's dial up a little coffee giveaway here. We will stay on theme with hashtag Bucky in the chat. This will get you a free 12 ounce bag of Vasilaros and Sun's coffee. I got the Colombian here. I got the Italian here. There's a bunch of different options in their store. A bunch of people have been winning these free bags and enjoying them. While we get the buckies in the chat, I'm going to pour some coffee here. But just to put a button on this after I do my pour, do you have a favorite cups between Bucky and Breeze? Because a lot of the things they're price ownership, all of it's pretty similar this week. - Yeah, for me, I think it would be Breeze just because we know that matchup looks unbelievable against the Lions and you made a good point about him, not. He's going to have a roll and a valuable roll, whether they're losing the game by 20 or they're keeping it close. So I think he'd be more primed for an explosion game in terms of really, really going high and winning you a ton of money. - Yes, I'm with you there too. And again, it's hard to know because the other factors is I think a few weeks ago you look at this matchup between the box and the Browns and be like holy shit. This is like a smash spot. But now you have the Browns who are in surprisingly decent form, at least they were before. And then you have, or sorry, I was talking about the Browns, I'm thinking of their matchup last week, but you have a tough matchup there. And then the box, just not looking too good. So yeah, I'm with you on slightly preferring Breeze. All right, I'm going to do a coffee pour here and then we will spin the early bird. We'll get the worm with this giveaway. So last call for a Bucky in the chat. (birds chirping) As always, even if you are not the winner here of this drawing, you guys can get 25% off your first order and free shipping with promo code P. I just dropped the link in the chat there. Jesse Riddle 299, congratulations. This is what you need to do. Email me [email protected] and I will send you the promo code in the link to redeem that. And I will get back to you later tonight or tomorrow morning with your promo code. What other running backs cups stood out to you here as far as this metric we're doing, comparing utilization to salary? - Yeah, so couple that we could take a look at here. I think one would be, we talked briefly about Gentie. And I think we kind of have to talk about him in this format when we compare utilization to salary. Just because like I mentioned earlier, Gentie 99.8 utilization, so you can see he comes out with like a 16.2 delta between implied and actual utilization. Insane usage for Genties, above Jameer Gibbs, above Kenneth Walker, Beijing on like, he is the king of running backs in terms of how he's being used. That receiving work that we saw in his prospect profile and stuff that really made me excited about what we could see in year two, we're seeing that come to fruition. Yeah, the usage is a whole, like there's nothing really, you can say about it other than it's truly insane. So we get a massive discount on him here at 7100. I mean, obviously still like a premier play, like you're gonna have to spend up to play him. But when you compare it to utilization, like it's insane. The New Orleans matchup, there's not a whole lot to write home about in terms of like, you know, it doesn't super benefit him, but it's also not super detrimental. He comes in at RB8, Fantasy Life Rankings this week, adjusted for defense, RB9, prediction market data, has a bit RB5 and the floor across Vegas right now has him at RB6. So I think he's a solid play. I think there's also a chance for, I guess like, this game to kind of go crazy in a way with how New Orleans has looked recently on offense. The Raiders, I mean, these are two offenses that have been like pretty solid through two weeks, surprisingly solid. I think this could be a little bit of a shocker game in terms of the over getting hit. - Yeah, and I'll tell you, I'm gonna just guess a spoiler for tomorrow's show with Jam to win when we dig into the slate. I saw him posting a little bit on Twitter, and I know he really likes both the Raiders and the Saints here this game, I think has a lot of potential to get fun in a back and forth kind of way. I mean, one point to bring up, and this is a good one here as far as what it could potentially mean for Genties target share. With Bowers Back, you bring in someone who can clearly earn a high amount of volume. Do you think that should give us any pause about Genties target share, or do you think they're still just enough to go around for the two big dogs here? - I think there's enough to go around. I think when both of these guys are active, the offense is gonna be flowing through them in a pretty consolidated way. I feel like we've kind of had to, we've seen Clik Kubiak kind of scramble a little bit over the past couple of weeks in terms of trying to figure out how to get the offense moving, getting more people involved. We saw Cody White. I mean, who knows anything about Cody White? He had two touchdowns last week. So I think there's plenty to go around. We're not gonna see Cody White on the field when Bowers is active. I think it's gonna be through these two guys. And also it'll just like having better players on offense for the most part, especially when they play different positions like this. It's beneficial to both people because the offense moves better. You're in the red zone more. You have more valuable touches to go around in general. So I would say that I'm not worried about Bowers being back. I think if anything, it might help Jenty a little bit. - This guy was not on our list, but I've now seen a couple of questions about Budkins this week. Let's talk about him quickly. I wrote him up in the newsletter, the other day looking at the three running packs who are currently worst in the league at rush yards over-expected. Quenchon Judkins is one of them. I said the good news. He is a true workhorse, 67% of the rushes, 68% of the snaps. The bad news, the Browns ranked 31st in place per game right now, so they're playing slow as shit in dead last in yards before contact, which means the offensive line isn't doing him any favors. The one piece that Kopei had cups was like Dylan Samson is on IR and Judkins is picked up. Some of the passing game work in his absence, 17% target share. But as far as like from a DFS lens, he's priced right around Breason Bucky. He's 61 hundred sure he'll come in with lower owner. But all of those risks with game script and play volume that we're not as concerned about for Bucky and Breeze For me they all come into play with Judkins So I understand in homeligs guillotine leagues like you're forced to start Judkins relative to where you drafted him But to me, I'm not too interested in him in DFS Yeah, I have I have Judkins at 5500 so maybe my date is out of date or maybe it's I don't know But 5500 is definitely I was looking at Fandall to 6100 Fandall 5500 Okay, good good flag. Yeah, a little bit better a little bit better at 5500 He does actually come in as one of like the highest Delta's or I guess values so you should say looking at utilization versus salary So we can see like I don't know why Jordan Mason even has a salary attached to him this week He's obviously on IR so just disregard any of those guys But we see Judkins come in down here at RB 10 I'll pull him up a little bit RB 10 against Kara Linus So I mean, it's a really solid matchup 67.2 utilization through two weeks. That's RB 20 kind of in that camp scatiboo David Montgomery Jalen Warren range for Quinchon Judkins So I mean the utilization is there. It's just kind of going back to what you just said He like they don't run a ton of plays every game You know the offense in general. It's the Browns So you kind of know what you're getting But also the fact that he is getting that receiving work with Dylan Samson on IR I think that's getting underrated a little bit. So I could definitely see Judkins who we see a pretty solid value on here at 5500 Going up against Carolina RB 20 in fantasy life dvp adjusted this week RB 13 so we're looking at like a back-end RB 1 prediction market data has him at RB 13 as well his Vegas base floor has him at RB 15 at 8.2 points So he's definitely a guy I could get behind play in this week. I'm not sure like in DFS if you can get there at 5500 But I mean in terms of plugging him into my normal lineup. Like I definitely like I like what I'm seeing with Judkins and the role specifically So I would I would be in on him The the thing the difference in what's kind of funny and it's maybe counterintuitive is actually I think Judkins has a floor, but I'm worried about the ceiling right because work load is good like we know his touches aren't going anywhere But they're not running a ton of plays So you just worry like does he have a 25 point game in him, which you're probably going to need to win a tournament I will say looking at which site to play him on 5500 on draft Kings where that ppr stuff comes into play in a big way The bonuses come into a play. I'm a little less interested. He's RB 21 there But he is RB 22 on Fandall where it's half point ppr it's going to skew more to touchdowns and away from receptions And then on underdog he's not getting drafted a ton pf 35.9 so he could be a little bit of a scroll down guy there, but I mean you're going to have to find at least a touchdown Probably too from him for him to like really break the slate Um On any other running backs here. I mean I had done just like looked at the The lines on underdog. They didn't have scrimmage yards, which are way more interesting for guys like Bucky and Breeze They are at 59 and a half rushing yards genty just 10 yards higher chase brown was another guy You had and maybe the interesting running back bucket at 59 and a half But any other thoughts on I mean with these guys the reason we like their utilization is because of the reception So the rushing yard stuff alone is it quite as intriguing Yeah, I agree like the utilization score is so tied to receiving work So just doing rushing yards like I'm not even sure these these lines fit our uh Our prompt really much but one guy I think that I could bring up that I think is interesting in terms of running backs is uh Deandre swift he's a guy that You know he had a pretty disappointing utilization score week one when he had this like it's funny because he had like the 30 point game in week one Right and everyone's like oh my gosh deandre swift was the truth His utilization score in week one was like RB 25 RB 24 so like a back end RB two But after week two I was actually very interested in what I was seeing out of swift utilization like he didn't get there in the box score Obviously in a in a nine three game against the Vikings But he was involved in the receiving game. I don't have the exact box score pulled up But he I think had five or six receptions He led the team in targets and I think he was the RB five or so on the week in terms in terms of overall utilization If that's the type of utilization we see going forward for deandre swift which you can now see is at 81 through two weeks That's RB 12 so far That's very promising and I think if there's any sort of like buy window I'm not even sure if this is as much of a DFS take at 6200 But if there's any buy window on deandre swift right now coming off that game where they just did absolutely nothing Caleb Williams Might be gone for a week or two. I would definitely be interested in Grabbing deandre swift for the low if possible Yeah, that game is money night football so not on the main slate another bonus you get there deandre swift revenge game Against the Eagles right is well our guy ghost in the chat also flagging that Pollard gash the Eagles last week in the running backs on the bears eight last year with the Eagles in that black Friday game If you're buying any year over year splits there But yeah, things set up well for him. I mean, I guess you worry is there any kind of offensive You know cratering possibility with Baygent which you know, I think could be a real thing Because of the Eagles defense being pretty solid But you have to imagine this run game offensive line has some success here So yeah, I like that shout as well Let's head over in talk some wide receivers here while cups gets that pulled up Just want to mention guys we have a couple premium shows for youtube members on the channel I'm going to drop the link to join here get all kinds of perks with your youtube membership So Saturday after dark shows. I'm going to have Neil or field on this week We're going to talk some DFS obviously the slate and shoot the ship with some guests around the industry And then on Sundays we have the cram at 10 30 a.m. Eastern That is getting us all ready to set our DFS lineups overnight news looking at ownership Running the sims all of that good stuff In addition if you are a youtube member you get access to our fan duel free roll This has a thousand dollar top prize and it's gated exclusively to youtube members So last week there was like 150 people The top 100 spots pay out. I'm telling you this will pay for its membership in just a single week of EV And you get one of these every single week So take advantage of the membership also gets you some gated channels in the discord But cups wide receivers here. Where do you want to start because we got some interesting names to sift through here at the wide receiver position Yeah, so We need to start in so many different places But just I haven't sorted by salary here The first one that sticks out to me obviously we see Niko at 1912 I just don't think Niko is playing so I don't I don't think we need to talk about Niko He is a good value as 7,000 if if he does play Scrolling down wide receiver 15 in terms of salary at 6400 is Christian Watson And is there I mean is there any wide receiver that's just a better bet to like When you a ton of money in a in a weekly tournament than Christian Watson who just has the most insane ceiling Across the entire position 88.2 utilization score this year so far That's wide receiver eight up there with the big dogs and Jalen Coker who will get to soon um implied utilization of 70.9 considering his 6400 price tag Major major value at 17.3 differential. He's going up against the Falcons this week I haven't been wide receiver six So you know, he's he's coming in as the 15th most expensive wide receiver My data has him at wide receiver six this week prediction market data likes him at the same price His Vegas base floors wide receiver 10 fantasy life at wide receiver nine so Getting him at the wide receiver 15 price tag on on that That usage so far this year feels very good Yeah, and we of course have this game tonight on Thursday night football You know the the downside the fear for the Packers is just the offensive line is so bad And the whole team has been struggling offensively but almost everything else is just set up perfectly for them Jane Reed is going to obviously miss this game It means we're going to see a lot of like Skymore maybe some bow melt and working in the other kind of big narrative thing with the offense right now Is they've talked about Tucker craft essentially having to be an offensive lineman for them just because they need help to shore up their offensive line So what that is resulting in is just a massive concentration of targets and routes four or two guys Christian Watson and Matthew Golden so yeah spike last week 94% of the routes 36% target share and then Matthew golden 88% of the routes 27% target share So like this ball is going two places when they're on offense and throwing and it's Matthew golden and Christian Watson And this is kind of where we were at coming out of last week as well And it's almost flying under the radar just a little bit because the weather you know was so poor in that game And we couldn't really get the explosive plays going So yeah, how do you think again about maybe the differences between Watson verse golden in this spot tonight? I mean they're both great values like if I was making a couple line-ups. I would want to That big on On like both of them honestly like Watson. We see come in as a big value I think if I just scroll down a little further actually know what let me just type in So if search on golden here Matthew golden 75.6 utilization score very solid implied of 50 so He's actually one of the bigger values you can see at 25.6 between the two 4900 this week that hasn't it wide receiver 42 so Like, I don't know what it is about these prices on the Packers pass catchers, but they're getting like price down pretty heavily. So well, just note to that, they're not on the main slate, so that impacts the positional stuff there. But I will say, like, there is a pretty big gap between the receiving yard numbers here for Christian Watson and Golden, Watson 69 and a half, Golden 49 and a half. I mean, I kind of want to continue to chase the Golden value there, not saying Watson hasn't been awesome, but the usage has been like relatively similar and you're getting a 20 yard discount on Matthew Golden who can legit do this on two targets. So that really stands out to me tonight. Yeah. No, absolutely. And he, he comes in very well this week, Golden at wide receiver 16 fantasy life prediction markets, wide receiver 17 Vegas wide receiver 18. So very, very solid there. One other thing I wanted to kind of take a little sidetrack to be is the other Thursday night football wide receiver Drake London with pinnacle turning. We didn't have him on the show sheet, but I think he's pretty interesting to talk about. He's almost like the poster boy for the anti antithesis, I guess, of this like topic where he's priced highly, his utilization would imply that he should be priced way lower, but we know that the utilization like is kind of, I don't know if it's fake with Drake London, but the offense has just been broken, right, with with the brush. So I think he's an interesting bet this week as well coming in at 5,700 when he gets ranked very highly with pinnocks coming back. So if there's any sort of discount on London coming in like just because we haven't seen it yet so far this year, I very much so feel like we could see it tonight in a big way. DVP adjusted fantasy life ranking this week, wide receiver nine, he's a top top 10 wide receiver in pretty much every ranking that I have so far. So I'm very interested again, also going up against Green Bay, 25th and DVP against wide receivers. So I love Drake London, I'd want to get him to my lineups as well if I could. Yeah, and I mean, it's the, you know, the stars are aligning for him right where the utilization has been good and then he's going to get the quarterback upgrade tonight. I mean, there was a reason we were drafting Drake London in the second round is because we assumed one of two or penics was going to be his quarterback and they would be able to get him the ball. Cooper Rush hasn't been able to get him the ball. That should change tonight as well. So I like that shout out there. Let's talk about Coker. Can Coker keep this up? His usage has obviously been awesome. He's been a lot closer to Teteroroi and McMillan than I think anyone anticipated. But then, you know, you can start to wonder, okay, you know, Coker's been, you know, not getting near the attention that that has on the outside against these top corners. Now we have a couple of weeks of film to defenses adjust here. How are you thinking about Coker? Do we keep chasing this and tell us price really gets up there? I think, yeah, and I don't think there's really a question that we should, like Coker at 5,500. He comes in out of 169 wide receivers that are priced right now. He comes in as the second highest value, which typically when I sort it just by the delta here between utilization and implied utilization from salary, you're getting the guys at the top, like, Caliph Rayman, Ted Hurst, like these guys that you're not really playing realistically, right? But they do have like big deltas just based on these numbers. Jalen Coker here at number two, like he's a legit play. Like I'm just, I'm sort of, I'm looking for legit plays on this list. Jalen Coker is a very legit play and he is the number two biggest value, 93.6 utilization like you said. That's a wide receiver five on the year so far, up there with the big dogs. And yeah, going up against Cleveland, 28th and DVP this year so far through two weeks. I have met wide receiver 16 this year or this week. He comes in as the wide receiver 14 with fantasy life when you DVP adjust. He's been looking at prediction market and Vegas stuff like wide receiver 12. So he's actually above Teteromek millen for me this week. I know that might sound insane, but they're back to back. I have Coker 16 and I have T Mac 17. No, I mean, Coker has had the the better role so far. I mean, one thing is it is kind of comparable to the Packer situation, right, where it's so condensed on these top two guys. I mean, Leget is running some clear out routes. He did have that one nice deep catch last week. They're throwing to Darren Waller occasionally in the red zone, but this offense is Tett and Coker here. And you know, I think that's kind of the fun thing with guys like Coker and I want to talk about Denzel Boston in a second as well where it's like, you know, is there a small sample noise to this? I really don't think there is as far as with Coker's role in talent. The big question, I think with the Panthers has nothing to do with Coker. It's just can Bryce keep this up because the big thing is, you know, we were talking about this on the swolecast on Tuesday. There's been like a philosophical shift to how they're running their offense. They're not hiding Bryce Young anymore. They're letting him cook. I've seen people refer to him as playing point guard for this offense, which I think is a pretty accurate description there. So what do you think about that? Because that's really the one way that this goes south in my mind is if Bryce Young, you know, turns into a pumpkin again. Yeah, I mean, and we've seen it. We've seen it multiple times where this kind of happens with Bryce Young. But for some reason, 20, 26 Bryce Young just feels different to me. Like it feels more real than what we've seen in the past and I mean, he's, he's, I believe second and EPA per drop back through two weeks, maybe, maybe fifth somewhere in top five that area for EPA per drop back among all quarterbacks for Bryce Young. He leads the league in passing touchdowns per game. He's second in the league and passing yards per game only behind Tyler Shuck. So I, there's obviously a chance that we get back to the Bryce Young that we've seen in years past. But for some reason, I feel like we're discounting the fact that Bryce Young, you know, he was a young prospect coming out. He's in year four. Like there's, there's a non-zero chance that he just got into this new offensive scheme and things just clicked for him. And this is the new Bryce Young that we're seeing. I mean, he was the number one overall pick for a reason, you know, like he's a solid quarterback. He's been a solid quarterback in the past throughout his, you know, college career and stuff. So I'm inclined to bet that this is legitimate for Bryce Young. I picked him up off waivers in a lot of leagues. I think he's worth the price where he's going right now. That's what I would say. I'm, I'm into the Bryce Young breakout. How are you feeling about it? Yeah, I'm feeling good about it. And the other thing I was looking at is just comparing him across sites this week. So obviously underdog ADPs are real-time market. People are drafting that price is adjusting and real-time. The salaries for these sites come out. They're fixed. So you see on draft kings, he's wide receiver 22, positional rank, 5,500, fan dual, 6,200. That's wide receiver 23. Even when I pulled this and I don't know if he might even be up higher than this, but he opened up early on was that wide receiver 15 on underdog. So drafters in real time are valuing him much higher than his salary alone, which goes to show that you are getting a good value relative to, you know, what a large sample size of drafters think Jalen Coker can do this week. So yeah, I envision here if I look at the ownership for this week, you know what, I'm not seeing him up here. So both panthers wide receivers down here in a fairly reasonable range, sub 10% projected ownership. Obviously this stuff changes as the week goes. But I almost wonder we see this happen sometimes cups with early on where you have the guys rising. And there's almost like a new sticker shock because it's like I used to pay 4,300 for Jalen Coker. I don't want to play 5,500 for him. But if he ends up being a $6,500 wide receiver every week or a 7K wide receiver, this is going to look laughable and hindsight. So yeah, I'm kind of inclined to to chase this here. Yeah, I mean, and the matchup against Cleveland has been very beneficial to wide receivers. I mean, we saw what we saw what the wide receivers on the Jaguars looked like in week 1 against Cleveland. This definitely has potential to be an explosion spot for Coker and T-Mac. I think both of them are solid values this week. I would just personally rather go to Coker, I think, just given the price. Yeah. Yep. And we'll see how kind of ownership and stuff shakes out there by getting a $500 discount on him on draft kings. Let's talk about Denzel Boston, another guy where I'm like, can he keep this up? How much of this is real, is it usage driven? Is there some noisiness to this? What's your read on Denzel Boston through two weeks? Yeah. So I think with Denzel Boston for me, these are the type of, I guess, breakouts you could call them that I'm very aggressive on. Just being a rookie that had a relatively good prospect profile. You've seen two games from him at the NFL level and he's looked extremely solid through two. 74.5 utilization score, that's wide receiver 16. What does that imply? I'm at 43.4 given his price at 4,500. So we're getting a massive value. You can see he's the fifth biggest value among all wide receivers this week. Going against Carolina. Also another team that's led up a lot of points to the wide receiver position so far this year. Yeah, with Denzel Boston, I'm going to bet big on the breakout continuing for a rookie. These are the guys over other profiles. I want to be picking these guys up off waivers and read draft leagues. I want to spend the number one waiver claim on this just because you rarely see a guy with such a small NFL sample size break out in the first couple of games. When you do see it, I feel like you want to move quickly. Yeah, and I mean, like, it doesn't look noisy to me when you look at the utilization. So first of all, he's on the field for virtually every route, 97%, 94%. He's earning targets 19% week one, 24% week two. The A dot was massive week one, 29, but a more kind of reasonable and sustainable 9.4. But the other thing too, the in zone targets are here. To me, I thought that was going to be the thesis for Denzel Boston, like not a massive target share, but they look for him in the red zone, the occasional big play. The fact that the utilization has been so good in addition to the things his profile said he could do well, you know, catch, catch targets in the in the red zone. To me, that's super encouraging. And the reason he was so cheap was obviously because he was playing on the grounds, but we're getting the competent level quarterback play. It hasn't bottomed out yet with the Sean Watson. Maybe that changes, but yeah, I'm inclined to stay aggressive on this as well. If we look at his price this week, he's 4500 on draft King's 5600 on a fan duel. But yet again, similar to the cocker thing, he's wide receiver 18 on underdog, wide receiver 42, positionally on draft King. So a pretty big discount relative to what he's been doing. Yeah. And you just pulled up the numbers on on Denzel Boston. There's a couple other things I wanted to note on those. But basically like you saw on the on the utilization you had 59% ariard share through two weeks. That is number one in the entire league. So I mean, he's he's accounting for or sorry, not number one. Number five in the entire league, percent of percent of ariards at 59 and a half behind Devonte Adams, Devonta Smith, Justin Jefferson, and Eddie Mitchell, who's another interesting conversation. But yeah, Denzel Boston's accounting for a massive portion of his offense's passing game, which you'd love to see from a rookie. He also you mentioned the average depth of target dropping from 29 to 9.4 and week two. We love to see that. I also look at average depth of route because the a dot can be a little bit noisy. You're only getting the numbers on balls where they're targeted. But if you look at the actual role that they're playing just on the routes, they're running. How far down field are those? Keep one. That was 13.6 week two, 10.5. So also came down to a reasonable level. That for me was the biggest thing that I saw about Denzel Boston that makes me think that this isn't just noise is the fact that I was worried when he came into the Cleveland Browns offense. He was just going to get thrust into that boundary role and kind of service the deep ball guy for whoever's at quarterback and whether that's to Sean Watson or whether that's Shadoor Sanders, like it doesn't feel good. That's not a role that we think would be fantasy friendly. If he's going to play an actual wide receiver role that's like friendly to fantasy where he's getting shorter area targets. He's working different areas of the field other than the boundary. There's no reason he can't be successful, especially doing this after two games in his rookie season. Like I want to bet big on on this profile. Yeah. And you know, got to get this win in the chat says hear me out. His quarterback is to Sean Watson to me that strengthens what he's done. It makes it all the more impressive, right? Like because we could kind of make excuses if the quarterback play was poor. Maybe we wouldn't understand what we have on our hands if he had Cooper rush throwing to him through two weeks. So to me, just getting again, we don't even need great quarterback play for these guys to hit. We just need not bottom five in the league quarterback play. That's what we're getting from Watson. I mean, I was skeptical that that was going to happen. I truly thought Watson would be benched by now. He's playing fine. He's playing fine. I still don't think he makes it through the entire season. You got to kind of go back and see what you have with Shadurr. But even with Shadurr, I think we can get just competent to a S quarterback play from him. And it is interesting. You look at the lines this week as far as receiving yard, some of the players we've been talking about. I just wanted to get them in the mix here. I mean, he's right there at the same receiving yard as Matthew Golden. Like Matthew Golden's usage is insane. You can certainly say it's a better quarterback, both 49 and a half receiving yards this week. So that shows the people hanging these numbers are already respecting Denzel Boston pretty highly as well. Yeah, definitely. We also see Devon Veile there who I think is someone we can take a quick side tangent to as well. He's one of the best values at wide receiver as well. You can see a 32 bonus between his utilization and his salary 73.6 utilization so far in the year. That's wide receiver 17. He's going up against Vegas who we talked about earlier on the other side of the ball with Gen T like this does feel like a game that could have some fireworks offensively between these two these two offenses prediction market data has him at wide receiver 22 his biggest base for a wide receiver 21. I have my wide receiver 31. I just think with Devon Veile like this is a guy you can feel comfortable plugging into your lineup pretty much every single week as like a mid-range wide receiver three Intel Jordan Tyson gets back and then from from there we can have the conversation about you know what is his role look like as he completely phased out but every week I'm feeling comfortable with this guy especially at his price like just getting him into my lineup. I think he has significant ceiling as well and the utilization suggests that it's it's completely legit through two weeks for him for sure and he's another guy similar to Coker you look at his spread you know salary on draftings 4400 that's wide receiver 45. He's coming off the board wide receiver 29 on underdog right now so a massive gap between how he's being valued relative to his salary you get that nice game script and it's funny because we've been talking about these undervalued guys like you want to start to make a little cheat sheet for some DFS builds how about a Jalen Coker and Denzel Boston little mini correlation on that game and how about an Ashton Gentie Devon Bay Lake correlation in that Raider Saints game. I love that I love that I think I think those are some really yeah solid sheet plays that can allow you to spend up at other spots and blow up this week. The other kind of notes on the Bay Lake stuff I mean you can see here like target share obviously a Lava still the king there 29% but Bay Lake at 19% and again we've been talking about these concentrated offenses I think the one difference between like the Coker Tech pairing the Golden Watson is you do have a tight end in Jawan Johnson who's also been pretty solid from a target earning perspective you can see he here is at 13% as well. So it's like they lay in Johnson are a little more like co two way to be than it being like a clear number two but I don't think that's a bug necessarily I think they lay at 4400 still represents a really nice value. Yep totally agree totally agree and I think there was one more wide receiver we talked about potentially hitting on P wash do you want to do you want to talk about P wash real quick? Yeah you know what it's just like I continue every week you know I was famously off P wash best ball year so now these first few weeks of doing content we just did a show with Dwayne over on the fantasy life YouTube channel there and he's just waxing poetically glowingly about Parker Washington so yeah let's do it one more time here because he is definitely undervalued just relative to his salary in his price based on what he's been doing so far. Yeah and I mean to be honest Pete like you and I were kind of in the same camp this this offseason like I do not have enough P wash like I was I was kind of out on it I was like let's take the arbitrage guys Jacobi Myers Brian Thomas Jr. I mean even hey how about Travis Hunter like let's get some of him on. Hey we're gonna start a start a practice this week so okay okay yeah maybe we'll get maybe we'll get three or four routes this week that would be a real big uptick from from what we've seen so yeah 82.1 utilization for Parker Washington so far this year it's a clear wide receiver one that puts him a wide receiver 11 behind just a bunch of bona fide studs here 65.9 implied utilization gives him a pretty solid bonus there at 6,000 salary against against doing and 6,000 has meant wide receiver 21 compared to where we haven't been the data has him I have a wide receiver 14 prediction markets wide receiver 11 Vegas wide receiver 14 so yeah I mean what can you say about Parker Washington that hasn't already been said like he legitimately has the role of a guy that could finish as a top six wide receiver top eight wide receiver so I think this is one of those ones we talked about Jalen Coker and the salary like you know 5,500's not going to seem expensive next week when he's 6,200 I think for Parker Washington you know three weeks from now 6,000 we're going to look back on and be like we were getting Parker Washington for 6,000 and now he's up there with the big dogs at you know like 7,000 the top of the you know the top of the guys like I could see him up here at 7,500 with these guys in a couple weeks if we're being honest. Yeah I think where he settles you know I don't think he is in the you know Jefferson Pucca lamb type but like can he be right there on the Alave Devonte Smith Zay Evans like that that feels exactly where he belongs and then again same with all of these guys we're talking about today 6K on draft Kings puts him as the wide receiver 16 a little more expensive on Fandall as the wide receiver 14 7,100 underdog drafters taking him at wide receiver 9 off the board there and again we haven't even seen like the true blowup game we've just seen like the floor or even like the median based on this really good usage what happens when we actually get a back and forth game I'm not sure that the Patriots are the team to get them in a full blown back and forth game but it goes to show that not only can he pay off this salary but they're still room to just absolutely smash it once they actually get in a shootout. Yeah. Totally agree there. I'm very interested to see what we see from him over the over the next coming weeks of this holds, but I think it will. And again, looking at these numbers like of the wide receivers here, I didn't make a prediction on Matthew golden. I feel like of the other five that we've discussed here, Watson, Parker Washington, and then golden Baylor Boston. Washington at 59 and a half looks like my other favorite one on the board. I agree. Yeah, that seeing I feel like he should be up with Christian Watson. If we're being honest, like I feel like the 69 and a half number feels more realistic. So that would be one that I would bet as well. Yeah, I'm going to go ahead and do this. I'll put in a once we're done like with the show today. I will put together an entry with all of our kind of favorite games and stuff like that. So look for that in the show notes and in the description. We got a little bit more time here cups before brick joins me for lulls. Let's talk about some tight ends because there's definitely some interesting spots to to sift through here. Yeah, so we can start. Let's just start at the top of the list here with the biggest value across the entire position when comparing utilization to a salary and it's Terrence Ferguson. So I think this isn't especially interesting one considering the fact that Puka. I mean, it's out. So Peter, am I understanding correctly that these salaries don't change with news coming out. Correct. The the salaries come out. They are set in stone. And then that's obviously a huge driver of chalk. Right. Cause then you get the inherently misprice players. So I could see Terrence Ferguson being pretty chalk this week. Then if if Puka sits like this price feels pretty incorrect for him. 59.7 utilization through two weeks. That's tied in 16 implied utilization of 19.9 given this price. I mean, like the price for Terrence Ferguson basically says like he would be irrelevant in fantasies down here with Darnel Washington Theo Johnson. Those type of guys going up against Denver this week. Currently I have him kind of buried in the data has him kind of buried you see we don't even get lines from prediction market or the biggest stuff just because they're going to wait to come out with them until until we hear more on Puka. But I would expect this numb these numbers to move quite a bit on Terrence Ferguson. If Puka does sit. I'm probably getting her Terrence Ferguson into my back in Titan one. If I if I had to guess somewhere around that Titan 12 range. And for sure it's he's not on the main slate. This is the Sunday night football game versus the Broncos, which actually makes it a little bit of a pain is far as start sit decisions. You know, like this week we had a spot in one of our FFPC lineups where we had Puka and Terrence Ferguson. So it was so clean. We just run it up to start Puka goes. We play him. If not we're flexing T for we get the win. You know, hunky, hunky Dory all there. But like with the Sunday night thing for start sit because for me to your point without Puka Ferguson's like a must start at Titan unless you have a top six top eight guy. If Puka does go it feels way more speculative to me. I'm probably, you know, if I'm in a close matchup like I'm probably taking a guy like firemuth or a steadier floor with Puka going there. So we're going to have to read the tea leaves. But the tea leaves, I shall say. I mean, McVeigh is on record already saying things aren't progressing well for Puka. It's rare to hear here a bearish quote like three days from from kickoff. So to me that's really pointing toward Puka missing another game. Yeah, yeah, I don't love it. I don't love the the wind or I guess the the smoke coming out on on Puka right now. So yeah, if you miss his fire up Terrence Ferguson definitely. You know, one guy I wanted to hit on is likely both because we have just like a ton of different data points. We have his week one explosion. We have him coming down to earth a little bit and we too wasn't even on the field with some of their red zone snaps. And then on top of that we have a quarterback change going from obviously dark to Winston. So what are you seeing with Isaiah likely here. I mean, in terms of utilization like it still looks unbelievable for likely obviously the offense as a whole looks quite a bit different now with James at the helm instead of dark, but 94.6 utilization through two weeks that's only behind Tramack bride up there with Dalton can Kate as well. So likely you're getting him at 4,700 the implied utilization that you would see from a guy normally at 4,773.9. That's he's one of the bigger values. He's the eighth biggest or no, actually, I think he would be yeah, he would be higher than the eighth biggest value actually a tight end, but going up against Tennessee. It's tough with a guy like Isaiah likely because yeah, the utilization's been great. But what does this offense look like with with with James Winston instead of instead of Jackson Dart and we kind of saw a little a little glimpse of it of it last game and it wasn't wasn't ideal. So I'm curious what you think on likely are you waiting to see maybe a week like does this utilization drop quite a bit for likely in terms of how they're leveraging him in this offense with with James instead of dark. Yeah, I mean the thing that's a little hard is you know a lot of the players we've been looking at we've been trying to find kind of values usage relative to price. You see here he's the Titan six on draft Kings for salary Titan date on Fandall but you know Titan six on underdog. So you're not getting much wiggle room on the value and the uncertainty of what this offense looks like with Winston. So that that gives me a little bit more pause than I do on some of these other guys where I feel you like you just have a bit of a wider mode. So I have still been a little skeptical I mean like you said with his usage the routes jumped up but really the big difference was like no in zone targets in week to there. And you kind of see it come down to earth at least a little bit from the utilization score from 96 to 70 so that's kind of the issue there and then you look and you do see you know Theo Johnson playing just a smidge more there at least earning targets at a higher rate. But yeah I'm with you the usage is still good I guess the other wrinkle is probably if neighbors doesn't play like they're going to have no choice. But if you're likely I could see scenarios where neighbors goes and Winston just kind of hyper focuses on him. That's true and I mean we also do see like we've seen what James can do in terms of bringing the offensive fireworks we didn't see a last game but I think there's a chance that Isaiah like we's the guy you need especially if neighbors doesn't go and there's just a sneaky a sneaky blow out with a lot of points from the the giant side of the ball this week and a lot of them going to likely so. Yeah let's see I think we got time to hit on one more Titan here I thought it'd be cool to talk about Hawkinson I know you black Tim potential is an interesting guy again a decent amount of variables changing here as far as Kyler taking back over what did you see from Hawkinson. Yeah Hawkinson's dirt cheap at 3200 65.1 utilization so far that's it Titan 12 so back in Titan one that would be an implied utilization of 36.5 the biggest or the third biggest value across all Titans this week. They get Tampa Bay that's 31st and DVP against Titans letting up 7.5 extra points on average at the Titan position week over week so far. Fantasy Life has him at the Titan 10 when you adjust for defense Titan 10 in prediction markets Titan 11 for a base floor in terms of Vegas prop line so I think if you want to just grab a cheap Titan that has potential to catch two touchdowns in a game that could be a shootout with the Vikings and the bucks Hawkinson's a great play at 3200. Yeah he he looks really interesting to me across a few different things and I pulled up some of the just the prices on tight end yards you know likely 39.5 this week Travis Kelsey 49.5 shots coming off of that monster game 49.5 Hawkinson down here at 24.5. Pretty low number there for him and then like you said you look at the utilization it's been really solid 18% target share 21% target share. Do we have you seen a status update on Joanne Jennings for this week because he was out last week I actually have not last week was apparently is out for personal reasons I don't know. I do see looks like he's back at practice so he should be playing not a huge thing but it just gives you just another extra little added target boost but I would say at the prices he's at 3200 that's tight in 23 on draftings this week. You know he's tied in 14 on underdog a lot more expensive on on Fandall tied in 15 so to me it's definitely a draft Kings play there if you're going punt tied in and again kind of leaning in we to what we wanted to do with Kyler week one which is like what does this offense look like with Kyler and you can play Kyler you can pick one of the pass catchers and then just toss on Hawkinson as a low opportunity cost play in your flex if you do really want to play. You know Kyler showing the ceiling we all think he has. Yeah I mean we we tried it week one didn't work out so much let's run it back let's see what see what happens this will be the first real the first real sneak peak at what we see from the Vikings in 2026 so I'm very excited. Cups let people know where they can check out your stuff this week obviously been doing the the really early first look waiver column over on fantasy life you got your rankings up over there been making some videos. On the Cups YouTube channel anything else people should check out here. Yeah so every Friday I'll be dropping players that I'm I'm higher and lower on going into the coming week and I'm using a lot of this data so I'm looking at DVP adjusted rankings at fantasy life I'm looking at prediction market data Vegas data in terms of props and where they stack up so. So that one comes out every Friday morning, I'll be dropping that tomorrow. Check out the cups. analytics, YouTuber, I'm coming out with videos every week, pregame show on Sunday morning slate with Matthew Barry himself on his YouTube channel. So that's been really fun. Come say what's up in that one on on Sunday morning. But yeah, thanks again, Pete, looking forward to hopefully winning our our parlays that we put together from these from these lines. Yeah, like I said, at the end of the show, because we'll get some with Reeves as well. I'll share some screenshots and some links there. But I would say the ones that stood out, for sure, was the Matthew golden 49 and a half, the the Parker Washington 59 and a half. And then that TJ Hawkinson at 24 and a half looks good. And we kind of stayed away from the running back ones just because you want the scrimmage yards, you want the the pass catching upside there with those guys. Great show with my quatt cups. But it is time now for Lolls with bricks 75. We'll see you next time, cups later. Does he think? I think he thinks this he thinks this is a go. Vegas day thinks this is a go. Hot, naked girls doing yoga. What? Why don't you just win like a man? random.org. I've been one for yes, two for no. Let the DFS guy to pick for you. And I'm absolutely begging you not to do this. Please don't do this. All right. There we are. Bricks 75 back for another classic edition of Lolls. How are we doing today? Fantastic. How are you doing, Pete? I'm doing good. Someone in the chat is upset with my titles being an all caps lock. If you're if you're wondering, you know, where we're at with things to get upset about on the internet. I will say, swish, you must be incredibly do around here. Because I think I've been doing all caps titles for six plus years now. Today, it jumped out at swish sanders here. But this is week three NFL preview with cups and reeps plus Lolls. Thank you for tuning in. He might have he might have meant the dude above him. Oh, okay. The dude around. All right. Then I just had a fun bit with the with the title here. I was like, yes. There you go. Brick, how did your how did your week two go over at Run the Sims? All right. Not playing a lot since I don't really have any time. But I did get some lineups and I lost, but not bad. Hey. I know. Good. No, I was saying same. Same. Got some lineups in and lost. That's. If you're playing if you're playing, I thought a fun thing we could do one day is like a tears list for variance and like a skill game gambling. Yeah. Blackjack poker. Yeah. You could and you could you can mix it like the best ball. You could throw everything in there. Yeah. Oh, yeah. Because I don't think people really understand even people who like play one specific thing, but that I think like like PLO or versus Texas holome stuff like that. Yeah. Well, honestly, like best ball is like the best version of that because at any given time, someone can basically spin an outcome in any which direction. Like one thing I've been noticing, you know, in years past, it's been like people get off to slow starts. They have poor advanced rates through two weeks, but they're like week 17 is all that matters. Like I just got to get this team into the playoffs. And then like all it takes is one team who cares about your advanced rate. But then those same people, if they're crushing week one and two, it's like, oh, all you idiots were taking Jonathan Brooks over to the hub. You weren't drafted. Joshua. And it's like, wait, it does the week what it to is that what now matters. It's it's a beautiful game where you can retrofit your victory laps to whatever suits what's best for your portfolio at the time. Yeah. Yeah. In which it's crazy too is that is probably the highest variance of all these where you know, you have an edge, like if you're if you're a good basketball player, it's true. It's just really hard to realize that in like one normal human lifetime. You really need the right side of variance for basketball. I mean, they do have the dailies and stuff like that. So I guess you can you can win. But even dailies are just like a smaller field DFS. So it's still a lot of variance for sure. I mean, what it's I mean, because this has been I mean, obviously you started in game syndicate and then you have run the sims. I mean, I don't I wouldn't really consider you guys are a tool site. Like I don't really consider you guys a tout site, but have you learned anything in the past year or so as far as like the feedback loops of, you know, I guess people can still critique your inputs from like a touting type of perspective. Like what what is that been like to hear, you know, you put your information out there and then have it critiqued or have people not understand the things you're talking about with variance and probabilities. Yeah, it's it's a little frustrating. The DFS stuff though, we've kind of been dealing with that for how many years now, Pete. So I'm used to DFS stuff. It's the sports batting one that is like to me, it's like, yeah, like, you know, like there's no guarantee bet that's going to win or anything. You know, like, what do you fucking want? Like, it's you you you have like a, you know, small edge, but get the best line you can and then, you know, pray, but like, I don't know, there's a lot of the, a lot of people, there's a lot of people out there who think like that you should like win no matter what and gambling. Like, I think it's less prevalent now. I remember my buddy, he, this is this is like, freaking 20 years ago. He gave me his first weekend confidence pool thing and he's like, hey, can you fill his out for me? But like, I don't want to lose any of them. You're like, oh, thank you for this. Oh, he was serious. It's so like they and those people exist. Oh, I know it's it's even going back to where I like talking fantasy online, but when you get the one on one request from a friend, it's like, all of a sudden, it's like, oh, I could have $1,000 in play on a DFS late, but if one random friend asked me a start sick question, the biggest sweat I have over that Sunday is if I got that one meaningless thing for me, right? Just knowing that like it is what they're hyper fixated on. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, that's probably one of the, the, I think love Tans talked about this a little bit. The it's kind of like a weird sweat in a way. Like when you're, when you like are have a product or a company or whatever, just like exactly what you're talking about except with a friend, but with customers and like, yeah, more pressure than then you do on yourself when you're gambling like way more, you know? Yeah. So it's a strange, strange sweat. I don't know if I like that sweat, but it's definitely, it definitely exists. I was thinking about that the other day too. Not to get political, but this is lost. Like, like, it's just like the mentality of like these powerful people playing with our lives where like I have like some stupid DFS thing that I'm like dying over or like trying to get the site working, you know? I'm like, you know, like I need to take like blood pressure medication or something like that. And like these people are like, 100,000 people are going to die because I made this decision, decision, whatever. Anyways, let's have lunch. I've thought about that too before. I guess there just must be a decent, you know, getting desensitized to it, right? Where you just make a million of those like huge decisions over time and you just find a way where you're like, I'm not going to lose sleep over this. Like, I mean, it seems hard to get desensitized to things that have that kind of, but that's like the only way these people could continue to function. I think it's the charitable interpretation, Pete. I think they're psychopaths. They don't feel that, they don't feel that thing that you feel because they can't get the sample size. They don't play a million-handsopoker. Like, it doesn't, that's true. Not like a world leader of a million times. Like, you can see how well, like, you get to come across seasons, do they come to make the best of them ever? That's my idea. No, well, I think about that even too on a slightly smaller scale of like CEOs and stuff like that, the way a job like that is all encompassing the amount of fires you're having to put out, you know, to me, it just sounds way more stressful and not worth whatever paycheck it is. Like, I just don't want to have to live in that headspace like 24/7, but there has to be some level of coping mechanisms or something you do to help compartmentalize all of that stuff because otherwise you would just go crazy. For a normal person, I totally agree, yeah, I think you have to do that. For them, they're just like, you know, when's T-time, you know, like, oh, how many people died? Okay, great. Anyways, exactly. Not at that little wolf up over. Well, you did, it was funny. You mentioned the difference between like, DFS touting and sports betting because I had a similar conversation at the top of bully the Sims with you to last week where like, the people in the DFS space like rightfully like, revere him and hang on every word he says because he's like so directionally accurate over time with his takes and his leans and like, people really want to hear it. And then he'll talk about just like getting absolutely flamed for being on the wrong side of a bet like a binary like heads or tails thing where it's it's an interesting thing where I think the DFS crowd over the years and people who probably follow you guys and watch this channel like they've learned those things and understand how this works. But they're still I don't know. I guess do you think like when he's getting shipped for that, are they people who come from the DFS space or are they newbies that are there just for his sports betting takes that like don't understand how this works? Yeah, there's like the Venn diagram that crosses over is like, so there is some people in both groups. I imagine it's IQ related. Like it's probably the same people who are in both groups, but I think it's majority. people who aren't, aren't in DFS. And it doesn't do many favors by the way, because he does give stuff out, but it's in the secret chat and endgame, 'cause he doesn't want, he wants like, you know, he doesn't want people that like who would do stuff like that. So like you just cost yourself input from smart people by behaving like this. - Well, and it's a weird thing with DFS touting again too. It's the old phrase like what do you win when you win? You're often going out on a limb, like taking a risk with something that, you know, in most median cases, probably isn't going your way, but if you are right, like you win a tournament, you're the only person on it. So it's like your hit rate, maybe you only hit on that like 10% of the time, which would probably even be, you know, incredibly good to hit on a take like that. But it's like, oh, then you take a bath, nine out every 10 times, and be like, oh, you whiffed on that cheap loan stack, you whiffed on it, but it's just, it's hard, I think, for people who aren't living in this world or consuming this type of content, all the time to understand that. - Well, I mean, sure, sure. I mean, you are the, you're very charitable today with your interpretations of people. And I think that's straight though. I mean, like if you don't live in the world, how would you know? So it's fair, it's fine, I don't know. But like, like it's just, I think part of being like talking in public, like you do, Pete, is, I think you handle it really well because I don't know. I don't know if I could handle the amount of scrutiny that even like you or Davis especially gets. I would just be like, talking shit back in chat and probably say something that would get me in trouble. (laughing) - Going back to like the, the variants of skill game thing, Johnny football says, what is the best example of a skill game? He says, hold them DFS or best ball. It's definitely not best ball. I mean, hold them of those three for sure. - Of those three, yeah. - Yeah. Hold them for sure. It's very hard to win now though. I mean, I've been played in years, but I still follow a bunch of poker bros. So with the tools out there to get your strategy down quickly. And if you study enough, it seems like nearly impossible to be like 200 online. Did you see the ACR bullshit? - You know what, I should pull that up because I saw the, what's the CEO of that company? What's his name? - Oh, I forgot. I forgot his name. He was also trying to be, he was like trying to be cool for a long time. Like, no, I'm a real person. Speaking of people who make decisions, that impact a lot of people. - Oh, it doesn't seem like one of them. - Let me pull this. Oh, it's Philip Nagy is the CEO there, but give the setup because I saw a little bit of chatter, but I didn't honestly do a deep dive on it. So what's going on? - It's not our world. So I, but my understanding is there was a bunch, they have, I think they have a sports book or something where there's a bunch of, yeah, the sports book, where I'm assuming like syndicates are just winning sports butters went over the ACR. They probably had some soft lines or something and won a decent amount of money. And then they have this policy where you have to play through your winnings. And so like for people who don't know, usually like there's like a play through for bonuses. That's kind of in standard for years. - Yeah. - Although I was just thinking about this the other day, the wild, wild west, the early 2000s was so good, Pete. It was so good. You were just a touch to young. But like you could, like there was just sports books everywhere online just given away money. You could move money around with net salaries. Lee Poker was just free. Anyways, so they, but this isn't for bonuses. This is for actual winnings, like you bet, you know, the bear is you bet a bunch of Sundays. One, you want to cash out. Well, slow down. You got to play through your winnings on Poker. And play through means not, it depends on the rules like of the company you're dealing with. But not like, you let's say you want $100. You got a bet 100. Like you got a rate 100, which is a lot of difference 'cause there's only like a small percentage of the pot that's raked each hand. So it takes a while to achieve whatever it is you won. And he clarified, and I'm assuming this is the one where it was 10% of the players deposits, not his winnings. - Yep. - This must be new because the last I heard it was 10% of the winnings. - Okay. - But maybe it is still 10% of the players deposits. - Yeah, I can read some of it. He said the same published requirement applies here. The player must generate poker rake equal to 10% of the applicable deposit amount. Once that requirement and our normal account requirements are satisfied, his withdrawal can be processed. We understand that some people may disagree with that policy, that's fair. But disagreement with the withdrawal requirement is very different from ACR being unable or unwilling to pay its players. So that must have been the narrative spin there. Golden Pants with the top reply. Judgy, but what I saw at Bet Bash, the ACR poker games are about to become so good. Is this talking about the, okay, because you have the people who now have to play poker for as part of their playthrough to get their money out. So now you're getting a bunch of sports betting fish playing. - Right, yeah. So if they put 10, 20 grand in a deposit, like these guys are big time sports putters, they probably put that or more. You gotta pay, you gotta rake 10% of that, raking it. So like, I don't know, let's say you got like 2000 in rake, you gotta do that's a while, man. I haven't, it's been a while. That's like, so like at my heyday, I would get rake back, right? And so like I'd get like five K a month at like 25, 35% rake back. And I was playing full time like 10 tables at a hand. So like if they're anywhere near that, they're gonna be playing like, I don't know, take like four hours a day for the whole month or something to get like a grand or two, I guess. And that's if you, like and you got, like you want to at least be break even poker player. Like you're still gonna play the game poker. - I mean, it gets to the point, you know, plus EV analytics says where a poker first business, what a load of crap, nobody's forcing you to take sports bets. But if you take them, you take them. I feel like you're in the territory there of like, if that's how you're gonna operate, you need like massive pop up warnings about like what it means there. Because it's like an educational thing, like people probably aren't making these bets if they know that that's the stipulation to get their bonus funds out. - Yeah, 'cause it's so foreign and new, no one would know that that's the case. It's also like blatantly like, oh, we're not a sports book. We're just trying to get a few extra bucks off of our poker pros, our D gen poker pros in our sports book. 'Cause they have an account balance there, so we figured it'd be easy money. We didn't expect you guys to come. - ACR, man, like what a, I mean, I've just, you know, you hear about them popping up like once a year, you know, every other year where it's like, they've always, I think they're based out of Costa Rica, right? So they're playing in like a slightly different sandbox or at least the rules that they have to play by. And it feels like they just fly close to the sun on like every possible thing. This naggy guy has had to have made an absolute fortune the way he runs his business. - Yeah, I was thinking about that too. Like why not? Like some of these businesses, I mean, even full tilt. And just like, like why not like not fly close to the sun? Pay out people, don't be controversial. You know, live in the sunny island, Vantigor, wherever the fuck you're legally located. And just like, rake in even if instead of, you know, five million a year, you're only making two million a year. And just, you know, shut the fuck up. Don't cause controversy. Like I don't know why, I don't know why they go for it. You know, like, or I even know what the word is, you know, what the term would be. But like why wouldn't you just like, you're in the, you know, you're in the gray market. It, probably black market's probably a closer term. Why would you, why would you poke the bear? Yeah, right of just like every possible way or whatever he's making. Yeah, it's crazy. It's crazy. Or also maybe they're, they're struggling too. This could be like they're struggling for payouts and stuff. So that could also be a bad sign. I don't know why you be playing on ACR anyways. Like I know it sucks. It's not legal most places, but like maybe it is too. Maybe, maybe their handle and stuff is going down. Maybe people are playing elsewhere. Maybe this is like a Hail Mary attempt to get people. Hey, we'll be more of a one stop shop for you. You want to sports bet, you want to play poker. But it seems like he's been successful with like a bare bones out. And by successful, I mean, making money, not the way he operates. His business as far as customer satisfaction goes. And also he's like, he was like, he got super lucky that black Friday happened, right? ACR doesn't, never, it doesn't exist, the black Friday does anything else. Like you got handed this gift, like just play it safe. It's too late now, they're like not even this. Like they've been having issues for, for years. Yeah. Yeah, it's too, it's too bad LLMs weren't around around black Friday. Because we probably have a whole bunch of reputable international poker sites you could easily trade Bitcoin or something. And it would have just been seamless, but it was just too hard to create this stuff with coders back then quickly. It seems like this might have been the post that got things blown up here by Italian ice and he walks through the whole thing going back and forth on it. They limited me from the sports week after that saying they didn't want my action fine. I will draw it and play somewhere else. But my withdrawal will not be approved until I pay $15,493 in rake. That is not a playthrough amount. That is what I need to pay in direct rake in pots. I win. It's a direct payment to ACR example. I win $20 pot and I pay $1 in rake. That's $1 of the 15k direct pay from the pots I win alone that I need to pay to withdraw. So it was like, it becomes a massive time commitment, I guess, depending on the stakes you're playing. Again, if you're not a whale or you're not good at poker and then you're just like trying to speedrun it, what are you doing, like sitting like really high stake sitting goes just to turn through it quickly? Like I said, like 5, 10 was my regular. So like, I'll play some 10, 20, maybe a little 3, 6, 5k a month in rake back at like 25% or whatever it was and like, you know, no, I was in my early 20s. I was playing all the time. So like, this guy would have to play. He'd have to play a shit. It would take him months if he doesn't look because he's not going to play 5, 10. Do they even have 5, 10? It's probably, you can't beat 1, 2. Yeah. So like, he's not going to be able to rake it quickly enough. He could like hire someone but then that's a problem because if they find out you're not on your IP, then they ban you and they have justification to seize your funds or something. Yep. Yeah, that's crazy. There you go. I mean, whenever we always talk about, you know, not being a ton of drama in the DFS space relative to poker, I mean, poker always has it, man. There's always something going on in the poker world. I guess you've accepted a deposit bonus. I mean, even if the clarification's true, the 10% on the deposit, he deposited 30 grand. So he's still got to rake 3 grand. Yeah. And like, I just gave you my numbers. So like, a normal dude, he will take him a long time even with just 3 grand in rake. I mean, like a while. Yeah. And he's replying to all of these that he wasn't in. He never received or accepted any bonuses. This is just a cash balance there. So yeah, who knows what actually went on there. Another news story that was making the rounds this past week, make K-Cop, is this the same guy? Yes. Is it this the guy who did the, the like year of sports betting or whatever? Well, the guy, yeah, he won broke or whatever. He went broke because he like fired it all on like one money line bet at the end. It was like, gambling's bad. You're going to lose it all. gambling's bad. I fired it all off. I'm pretty sure this was him, but he's back with a new article draft King's developed an AI model to identify users most likely to lose money so that it could target them with promotions when employees then developed a model that would have assigned risk scores based on users likelihood to develop compulsive addicted behaviors. The company sidelined it here. This is a print. This guy is so good at like catnip for like mainstream media versus like how this stuff actually goes down. I did not see that he was the author of this article till you pointed that out. And so my first instinct was like, oh, yeah, yeah, okay, I could see it. Now that it's this guy, yes, exactly. He was hiding in the pantry. I recognize his profile picture because I remember he did a few interviews after that article. I literally saw this circulating. I didn't notice it until right now, but this is actually more perfect now knowing that I so like I'm now completely the other side. This is probably all fake fuck this guy. Well, so the thing that's so wild about this is like this feels like a bit like madlibs as far as what, you know, you throw in some prediction markets throwing the word AI, you know, problem gambling, et cetera. But it's like this stuff we've talked about this for ages pre AI. I mean, sites like this are using data analysis to profile their customers. How do you think they figure out who needs to get a VIP rap, who needs a deposit, you know, match bonus out of their account? Like they've been doing this kind of stuff for ages. I'm sure AI has assisted them has now made it easier for them to to sift through data and make these processes, you know, faster. But like, is there anything here that's actually new? I'm probably not and it's probably fake, but also like does he say anything in here? I'm interested about prediction markets because that changes the incentive when it's peer-to-peer. Yeah. Like, the ER syndicate is not, you know, using risk score analysis to lowering problem gamblers to bet on their lines, right, like, first of all, that wouldn't matter because it's a prediction market. Yes. Yeah. You know what I'm saying? Like, my point is like they never, they never like point out the pluses of prediction markets. Right. It's, you know, they play both sides like prediction markets are bad because they have, you know, Sydney Swinnies underwear as a, as a market. And also problem gambling's bad. So sportsbooks are bad too and everything's bad and there's no, can't possibly be any entertainment value out of these products. Like, you know, there's, there's never any, like, even the ACR thing, the reason the ACR thing's all screwed up is because it's a sportsbook. If it was a prediction market, the guy would have been paid out by now. Right. Well, and I mean, we, the bigger conversation is we've talked about it before, the responsible gambling stuff exists in this big gray area, right? Where the same data that you would use to find out problem gamblers, it's again, the same data that you're going to use for targeted promotions and things to get them playing more and like how you're interpreting that data and actually using it because you, like, as a business, you have to use that data and then it's, well, what is your responsibility to actually protect problem gamblers with that data as well? Like that, that's such a murky gray area for these, for these sites. Yeah. Yeah, for, yeah, for sure. But I mean, it is, it is the incentives in consequence difference between peer to peer and a company owned sportsbook. And, you know, I don't, I mean, but like, they don't, they don't mention that. They don't mention that incentive structure in the benefits of prediction markets because they just want to shit on that too because gambling goes bad. Yeah, but it's like I, I truly think what gets this story circulating is the use of an AI model. It literally makes it sound more nefarious when I promise you they've been doing this with other models, other data analysis for, again, like decades, like there's nothing, there's nothing new here, but say get AI model makes it seem like they, they've infiltrated your home and have stolen your seed phrase and you're, you're banking account. It's like a golf club company ad, right, AI infused. It's like, yeah, I don't think that's going to make me play golf any better, but a good marketing pitch. Well, I was listening to the, the risk takers podcast as well. And he was talking about like this is like, you know, this is what credit card companies do. This is what like everyone uses the data they have, what Amazon does to get you to buy more products. They know what kind of ads and promos to do, like this kind of behavior, like truly exists in almost every, you know, retail type vertical. Yeah, sure, but I think the central, I mean, I agree with that, but like the central claim I think this, this phony's trying to make is they, the employees came up with a model to identify these guys so they can just stop using the product and then the higher ups shelved it because that would cost them money is what is implying to me. I bet that's bullshit. I bet this guy's a fucking liar because he is a liar. So why would he not continue to lie? And so like, like maybe, maybe they're like they, they've seen like in these scores. And then, you know, like who knows what's happening at a company, they could be like, yeah, this model doesn't actually mean that, you know, and then maybe some former employer something goes like, yeah, we tried to stop them and they didn't like, it's this holiday, this guy's fucking phony, Ross jokes, the same guy at the end of this tweet, McDonald's is using AI to make me fat. He said, I look forward to Capital One's wrist model where they do not accept credit card applicants that have a high chance of accumulating credit card debt or McDonald's model where they check your cholesterol before allowing you to order certain items. I mean, I tell you know, that's my, that's my argument. And also Ross, the McRib is back, buddy, coming soon, I just saw an ad on Twitter, so be prepared. That like the, the, the legacy of gambling will just like, never, never go away. And maybe, and maybe it shouldn't maybe gambling isn't the ultimate evil or something. But like there is like no nuance on whether this product is. any entertainment value for people and people should just be allowed to enjoy it despite there being a cohort of the population that gets addicted to things. Like there's no, it's just gambling bad. It's, you know, just like the Wild West where they tilt the roulette table and you can't win and you're gonna get snookered by anyone, any sort of bad. Like it's like the version of the person we're talking about who doesn't understand variance and gambling and they gamble. You know, it's the same thing but even like less gambling knowledge. Where it's like they can't fathom that Pete and his college buddies like to throw a couple bets down together and watch the game and they actually, and that's kind of fun. - Do you know what they should have as a promotion? You should have, I don't know, maybe it's a playthrough but you should be able to see what your personal risk score is. How fun would it be to see your risk score fluctuate? They're like, Pete, we've seen some of your DFS lineups for these eight lagers that you get straining together and your risk score is going way up. - Are you okay? Are you okay if this pops up on your screen five times a day? - Yeah. - Oh, I thought it was just a good one. You remember that Justin Timberlake movie where he had like a number on his arm. Like for how many days he has left to live? It was like a future dystopian movie when. - Okay. - JT was big. I'm sure people in shed know what I'm talking about. And like you could transfer minutes to people and stuff like that in five minutes to stay alive. - That would be so great if we had that for like other things like IQ. You know, you just have the IQ on there, right? Like how many people you've had sex with? With that right on there. Put your risk score, put the risk score on there, you know. You could just go and like look at the person's number. We were like, okay, I got it. You could pretty much like every, you don't even need to talk to the person. You could just see the scores and just like, okay. Like this is where the Chinese credit score comes in handy, Pete. - Now they're saying that we need a prediction markets for tout risk scores. Ross says Pete hasn't been drafting Parker Washington and Bestball increases risk score. Every time you tune into a stream and there's just a little risk score underneath there. Just like flashing red. I feel like that would literally like appell people to watch more. They're like, wait, why is this so risky? What is this guy about to say? That's gonna lead me to roulette. - Yes, definitely. Yeah, we got it. We should put that, get that Justin Timberlake thing in your armpit. - Clippy here. You seem to be having issues making good best. How can they help you? - Time, is that the name of the movie? You were looking for it? - It's something like that. Our camera, that was a while ago. What's the app Bales made? - Gambley. - Gambley, they pivot. - They pivot Gambley to the risk score. - That'd be great. - Risky. - Yeah, Risky would be a good name for the risk right there. - Yeah. - Get your LLM out. I know. What other stuff has caught your eye in the world of sports betting? So I should get fast prediction markets. - I just, speaking of LLMs, I do have some LLM takes. 'Cause I don't know if you noticed the new models came out yesterday, where's the two days ago? Time flies. So my tier's list has changed. My tier's list has changed. And these tier's list, they change. They could change overnight. They go pretty fast. And I said on our last show, I'm convinced they allocate CPU power based on what they need in the moment for marketing and whatever. And so when they released a new model, they really throw it at you. And so Claude is back on top for me. Number one, the tier's list, the new Opus model, 5.5. - So how, I wanna know, how are you, is it speed? Is it accuracy? Are you trying the same prompt across these different models? How are you actually, or is it completely a vibes based tier's ranking, which is completely fine? I'm just wondering, how are you testing these? - I mean, I just use it constantly. So it's also tokens. So it's not just how good it is. And speed matters too, but speed is a little, speed's a little different because like if you set it to like a high reasoning threshold and use their most advanced model, it will take longer because that's how you set it. So like, Chech EPT has three different models and one of them's faster than the other, but just not, it's higher reasoning level. So you just need to do it based on the task that you're trying to accomplish. So if it's something simple, you use that one. Or if it's something you need really quick, maybe you use the faster one, but I thought they're the latest model kind of stinks. And their last one was, I thought better than, so Shady Opus 5, better than Fable or just better bang for it. So I think it's better and way better bang for the buck. So like, I think that was the biggest leap is the token usage. Let me check where my tokens are at. So I would be out by now and I'm at 18% for the week. Where normally I'd probably be out. Here's another little tip to this LLM wells special here. The harness you use, I was suspected it does matter and I think it definitely does for cloud. So if you use a plug-in 'cause they don't really like using outside harnesses for their product, it seems like it eats a lot more tokens faster. So if you're gonna use cloud, I would just use their harness. Just use cloud code or whatever because I think it doesn't eat it as much, but Opus is way less token heavy. Yeah, and yes, that's from cloud though. So, but there's a whole bunch of sources on Twitter, you can see, and also if you just use it, it's clearly well-reasoned. And the problem's I'll send it that Chatchy PT couldn't get recently. It solves pretty quickly for modeling and stuff for us. So yeah, like big, huge, I'm super led. That one came out and it could change tomorrow. You know, they nerfed these models. Like, you can't prove any of these theories, but like it seems like to me that they nerfed them. So hopefully this one sticks around for a while. Kimmy, the Chinese model. I think I nerfed a little bit. It's still really affordable for the power you get out of it. And also since this, you know, Chinese model, they don't have a lot of the restrictions of IP and stuff like that that cloud will do to you. And Chatchy PT. So like if you have a task where it's like, I can't do that. Just fire up a Kimmy. It'll do it. It'll be like, I'll steal the whole website for you. You know how fast do you want me to steal it for you? - What are you, what have you been working on? Are you using it to code or what kind of stuff are you doing? - Yeah, so I like to hold everything on the site. So from customer service, Twitter, and like Twitter ads, Twitter API for data, like injury news. Adults completely redone. The Sims was rebuilt as well. There is, I will say this though. Like it's still not Terminator 2 here, like at all. Like it's doing this stuff based on models I already have or I already had and can feed it until it will exactly what to do. So like if you go like, make me great model, like it's gonna suck. And you're gonna use like all your tokens pretty fast for something probably pretty shitty. Now maybe six months from now, that might be different. Maybe you're from now, right now. If you just go, make me a good, best ball thing or something, it's not gonna be good. - Oh, are you having, did you say you're using it for Twitter ads? Have you been having success with that? - Yeah, I think it kind of stinks for like making, like the ads, like copies weren't good. - You guys haven't posted since, oh, is that penned? You guys haven't posted since May 13th. - Yeah, because the, I didn't have the credit card on there for the company that ran out of API tokens and I just refreshed it. But like the ads are different from that tool that handles the actual Twitter handles. So we were doing some ads before the season started. And it seemed like pretty decent. You want me to tell you the numbers? - Yeah, I'm curious. I haven't really ever messed with that. - So for baseball, it was not good. I thought, well, I was okay. And like how do you know, how do you know like how much an impression is worth to your company? - Right. Like even for you, Pete, like if you did it, like how much is 300,000 impressions worth for you? - Nothing. - Okay. - Yeah. - Because I'm not, I'm not selling a specific product. - Right, but for T.R. or something that might be, you know, with a few bucks. for sure. So, in the last month, 670,000 impressions for 970 bucks. Was that someone's individual post you were boosting? And you, it's the ad campaign feature. So you like, you put, it takes your ad under your company account. And that's where you see like those little ads throughout your feed. Okay. Yeah, it kind of looks like it's from the company, but it says add in there whenever. Yeah, I think that's the only thing it does. But the best ad is one of you guys wins the millie maker. That's still the best. Yeah, right. Yeah, posting screenshots is going to be so much better. Yes. But yeah, I don't know. I was like, what the hell line up? Yeah. You know, it's worth it's worth experimenting with there for sure. Yeah. And it's just, and it's so much easier to do. Like you can, you know, have your, your robot slave do it for you. So like, if I had to go in there and do it in like, in my word, my Microsoft pain ad, you know, that's how I would do. I probably crush a little low five. Yes. There you go. Let's see. Yeah, I have no grok use any grok here. I do have grok too. I have a mall, man. I have, so and plus like I have open router and so like you could use anything. Because when you do run out of tokens, you need something to go. Then you just have to use an API. I also sign up for multiple accounts, which I'm not sure you're supposed to do. But why is that just because you were getting I think they want you to do like a business level or something like that. And then chat GPT stop their highest level. I don't know if they've re added it, but you can no longer do the 20X 200 a month. Last I checked, which was like three days ago. Okay. So they must be given away a lot of tokens. That's another reason why people should use it now is they're subsidizing the shit out of it. Like you're getting, you're getting, you know, $30,000 worth of CPU power for 200 bucks basically. Just because they're in like your power. Yeah. Yeah. Because they have to, it's the same problem the DFS sites have where the majority of like DFS bros would pay more for your product. But there's only a few of them. And so like, how do you how do you price it for everybody? Where there's no real real way to do that. And it's the same thing with in my opinion with LLMs, is they want, you know, they want grandma to use it too. But you can't charge grandma, you know, $2,000. Because she won't she won't use it. Yes. But you, but the company guy or the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the addicted vibe book coding guy will pay to her in a month. Yeah. And that would still probably be cheap. Yeah. All right. Speaking of Opus, let's rip another coffee, give away here. We got some free bags, Basilaros and Suns coffee here. The winner will get a 12 ounce bag like this for free. Type in a hashtag Opus in the chat here. And I will spin the wheel in a few minutes. Is that a, have you with with DFS season? Have you, have you had to shelve kind of your work on like prediction market type stuff? Are you still working on that in conjunction? I shelved everything. MLB, MMA, um, prediction market. Yeah. That was no choice. Yeah. It's no, no choice. Just working, working around the clock on the NFL stuff. Yeah. And it's just, it's annoying stuff too. It's not like fun stuff. It's not like, it's not like modeling. Now I'm starting finally to, to get to the, to the fun stuff. It's like getting the stupid back end shit to work where it sends the right data to the front end, which you would think would take 15 minutes for these things. But like I said, we're not at T2 level yet. So, um, you, you have to hold its hand for, for a lot of that boring-ass stuff. So it's like you, you guys feel good where the, the sim and the models are at. It's just getting the user experience for them and the speed and, and all of that. No, the speed, the speed's fine. The, getting it, like literally getting it from my, my computer to the AWS software and functional is what's, what's like been such a huge pain in the ass. And making sure the model is plugged in properly because even just transferring it from local to staging to a production can cause issues along the way each plot. Like, why, you know, why is, why is this not, why is it say week two, you know, here? Like it doesn't say week two on ours. Oh, sorry. And it's like, yeah, that fucks everything up as and then it, and it's so, and then do you, is there, um, do you have like a repo where you guys can collaborate on it or is it all on, on your computer base? No, it's just me. Yeah. Except for like, uh, shares and stuff like that, they go, the player, the player share model. Yeah. Adam, Adam updates that. So like, it's algorithmically, you know, created and then, yeah, and then adjusted by hand. Um, finally, that's a whole year. Yeah, good. Oh, no, I'm just gonna say, I know, uh, Davis and shit, my money did a show yesterday going through, uh, inputs. If you guys want to, uh, to see them debating some of the algorithm, yeah, I thought that was a good show. Yeah. I like that model. I was like interested if other people like it. I don't know. If you, do you think people would like that type of? Oh, numbers it did. Oh, yeah, I don't know either. But I mean, like, that was, that was one of the, uh, the topics I do with you. I mean, that's what's fun. I think about the run the Sims product is you can see the actual, you know, granular, uh, inputs there. And then you can kind of, kind of debate them, um, especially early on in the season, right? I think it really lends itself to like, hey, small sample size, like you can make cases in one direction or the other, you know, by week 10, week 11, it's like a lot of the debates, like we kind of know, you know, what, what this is going to be. They're not quite as fun when we have like a full seasons worth there. But like early on right now, that's, that's, uh, that's the blast. That's true. Yeah, unless there's like injuries later on. I mean, people still miss like, uh, the, what is it? Two years ago now, the, uh, the nerdy VR sim stream. Oh, right. That was a good one. Did, did, uh, does Colorado still have underdog? Oh, you know, they do. Yeah. Okay. So he could still do it. Yeah. They, they, uh, week one was only a 20 K prize pool. I think they're kind of figuring out, you know, um, interest and liquidity. That's when that, that's one, uh, the bomb, the $100 contest. But the, uh, the big VR is up to 50 K this week. I think the rate is only at like 5.6% to, um, almost enticed me to drive across the border, but I'm still here. Are you going to do, are you going to do that next year? Like do like 20 drafts in a one day, send us drive across the border. I have no clue. Hopefully, hopefully I just naturally travel a decent amount. Um, yeah. I was going to say you could like do something in Vegas, but like, isn't it not legal? Yeah. Yeah. You're like, well, why don't you go to New Orleans? No, can't, can't do it there either. Yeah. Yes. So lame. Yes. Um, but yeah. Uh, you know what? I think our, our current setup, though, Brian, where what people don't know is that Brian and I, we get on the phone for like four hours every night. And I just tell him, Brian's like on the clock. And I say, who's available? He's like a family code. Yeah. I was like, pick him. And we just kind of do that until I get my 150 line ups. Yeah. While your LLM code is running in the background, I'm just whispering sweet ADP nothings in your ear for me. Well, now my account's going to get banned. Thanks a lot, Pete. That's incredible. Um, all right, Tyler, I'm listening, but I am not, uh, saying out loud, uh, what you just wrote in the chat here. Uh, there you go. Um, yes. Yeah, because you made the way during a different state. So you're probably good. Yeah. Yeah. Let's just say I miss it, but I just, you know, not hour and a half commute, uh, you know, miss it, uh, at this point, it's not that bad. It's not that bad. Is there any? Well, there's, there's a difference between like registering for slow drafts where you can, um, then come back home and draft them for weeks versus like ripping $7 drafts in a parking lot of a McDonald's. You should, you should look that that might be legal. If you wager in the other state to fill, uh, to finish it back home. There you go. Um, speaking of, I was talking with my buddies about this. Did you see Devonte Adams flexing his, uh, unlimited Taco Bell card? I did see that. Yeah. So I was asking my buddy. If you could have, so for people who miss this, you know, Devonte Adams, well, this, this clip kind of went viral because people have seen the ad of him being like, I have a Taco Bell in my house, but people thought it was like a set or whatever, but apparently like he just has this setup at his house. It's like Taco Bell set, but he has, I guess it's called a purple card. It's an unlimited Taco Bell card. I guess it's just him and Kevin Hart who have one. So then I tossed out to my buddies, you know, this is just classic college group chat fodder, if you could have an unlimited fast food card. And what I limited, I was like, don't say in and out, like, you can't say, cook out, it has to be a chain that's available in the majority of states. What would be your go to, Brian? That's a hard question. I'll say it's, it's uninspired because it's literally Devonte Adams, but I do think I would go Taco Bell. Like I think there's enough like fun stuff and diversity on the menu that I would, I would enjoy it, but something like McDonald's is probably the most practical. I like the safest one. I don't want it though, but that's the safest. Like, what about this culverts counters that too small? How many states is culverts and I mean, I don't think I have any culverts by me. Yeah, I would say five guys wouldn't count. No, that's too small. It's only in 26. What about, what about Wendy's or Arby's? So man, like I'm just not an Arby's guy with like, I was saying to my buddies, like 1990's era Wendy's I think would be the pick, but like Wendy's is gone. Yeah, like mid 90's, Wendy's was, was killed for sure. Oh, yeah, yeah, the head like the atrium cover for the, I don't know if you ever see that 90's restaurant nostalgia Twitter account handle. Yeah, pictures of the like pizza huts and shit where you remember pizza, how did those plastic red glasses? Yes, I remember that or like they'll show like a Pac-Man machine or something. Yeah, let me, so some good, does five guys count? Do you have five? No, if you can't drive through, it doesn't count. Okay, because my buddies and we were asking, does Panda Express count? Yeah, because you can drive through most panic. You have really, I can't think of a single drive through pay to express. Yeah, how dense is that area living? I would say most Panda Express as you can drive through like the one on the north side, you can't drive through, but like how in the suburbs you can. Okay, so my, my reason why I wanted to count Panda Express is because they're at malls and I feel like malls also represent like just classic quintessential like fast food stuff. I feel like a low-key good one. Jake says dairy queen. Yeah, right. That's a pretty good one. Actually, Chick-fil-A is not a bad idea. So like there's also like, if it's, if it's like just like, you know, whatever you want, dairy queen makes a lot of sense. If it's more like an island thing or like this is all you can have, then you need more of a place where that's got a wide variety of food that you, because you're going to get sick of it. Yeah, but you just want free ice cream for life. You know, dairy queen's not the worst. Yeah. Like Panda Express is an example of that. Like I'm not eating Panda Express every day. Like that's just too much. For sure. Yeah, you got, you got to think about sustainability. Subway, McDonald's, Wendy's, dairy queen, dominoes. Like do, yeah, five guys. I think you can include five guys. It's, it's in all 50 states. I guess the question is, is then do you open it up to like Chipotle and stuff, which maybe isn't the spirit of it? Yeah, although there is a Chipotle by me that has drive through. You know what? I've seen they just rolled out. Yeah, yeah. Two of these in mass. Yeah. Jimmy Mike's is good. I mean, do you guys have Jimmy John's? Jimmy John's. I, I'm familiar with Jimmy John, but I don't know if there's one that started at Eastern Illinois University. Yeah, I think the spirit of the Devote Adams card. You got to exclude fast casual. Yeah. I agree. It's probably the best. Yeah. I agree. I think you do need to make a distinction between you, you have to eat it every day or you can just eat it whenever you want. Because then it's just like, it was my free favorite thing because I could really give this shit. Yeah. I'm going to KFC every day. I don't, I don't have sonics out here. So I'm not going to, I'm not going to count. It's all right, because Sonic has good ice cream, but like the foods more like hot dog. It's one of those places, Pete, where you can like kind of like those old 50s diners, where you pull in underneath and over, you know, like a covering and like the waitress comes up to you, but it's a speaker. Yeah. Oh, no. Oh, no, OG man's fan going to ruin the talk about don't choose talk about I work there as a teenager. Also, I got to point out. OJ, OG fans, he's not the youngest guy in the world. So we're talking decades ago during the time and they switched from real beef and beans to bag meat and dry flake beans. Truly, I think it goes without saying for basically any of these restaurants we're talking about. If you saw how the literal sausage got made, you'd probably be horrified and never want to eat there again. Yes, definitely. I might buddies worked at McDonald's and told me some horror stories. Yes. What about this? What about this piece Starbucks? So me Duncan. I like Duncan Donas coffee, but oh, you're dunking over star. Of course. And yeah, I'm an Android guy too. Well, I'm an Android guy. I live in mass. I actually contradict your life's a contradiction that I look. I'm a vassaleros and sun's coffee guy. Why would I need? Speaking of which, I need to actually spin the wheel for this opus giveaway before we bring a reaps on here. But I mean, if you were, if you love Starbucks, then like sure, but like, do you, I mean, I've never even gotten, I've gotten like a banana bread from there. I get April likes the cake pops, but I'm not wasting my unlimited on, on Starbucks. Kiss my third leg. Congratulations. You won not Starbucks. You won the good stuff. Vassaleros and sun's bag of coffee, email me at contact @peteroversat and I will get you your promo code for your free bag of coffee. The rest of you can get it at Vassaleros and sun's coffee. I have that link down below 25% off with promo code Pete. Look at the range of this show, brick. I mean, we open up today. I'm talking, you know, target shares usage data with cups and all of a sudden we're talking fast food wish list. You know what I've actually thought of because of your experiences and I have not been in probably a decade or so. I need to, I need to revisit a buffalo wild links in your honor Brian. It's, it's not good, Pete. I've been, I've been, the food is generally pretty crappy. You know, I don't support them since they limited me. Real quick, real quick, actually, because this, this also came up in my college group chat last night. I did not see this on Twitter, but my buddy brought it to us. He said, did you discuss the ridiculous double or nothing debate on Twitter the last couple of days. So I want to ask you this question because my buddy asked it to me too. He said, if you bet a friend $100 on a coin flip and you lose and then you say double or nothing and you lose again, how much do you owe your friend Brian? 300. Okay, I say 200 and this was the whole debate. So the debate on this is you are technically right, you are technically right 300. But to me, the spirit of double or nothing has always been the same unit size, just run it back again. Like, if you would, like, it's just like, okay, you did a hundred bucks. We'll do 100 bucks again. Like, I have never done that and actually I feel like the spirit of it always is the same unit size. Yeah, I know. Okay, I agree. I changed my opinion. Yeah, I think the spirit, you were technically right. Yeah, I was going, I was thinking of like, double or nothing's on DFS, on DFS. Yeah. So there you go. But yeah, I said 200, but apparently, if we did that in life and I law, yeah, I would, I would owe you 200. Right, I would not expect you to give me. Yeah, I was taking it too literally not in like using it in real life. But that also reminds me, like, if people see fun stuff like that, put it in the Lulls discourse on Pete's channel. Thank you. Yeah, we get it. I feel like it would be a lot quicker conversation for us that it might be for Twitter there who probably turned it into a blue dress, gold dress thing for an entire day. Okay. All right, Brick, fun episode of Lulls. If you guys want to check out, run the Sims 20% off with promo code Pete also be back tomorrow afternoon with you. After the show with JM breaking down the week three DFS slate on draft Kings, anything else on your end here before we bring up Lord reeps. No run the lessons.com promo code Pete, we're good. - Beautiful. All right, Brick, we will see you next week, same time, same place, peace out. And now it is time for the show we debuted last week. It is of course in the weeds with Lord Reeves. Welcome back, how are we doing Reeves? - It's doing good, brother. You know, it was a tumultuous week too, but it was, you know, if we survived, we came out a little bit ahead at least. - We did, of course, the infamous Blake Korum, longest rushing call that you gave out that did hit. I know you were worried for the mentions there if it didn't, but you pulled that one through. - Yeah, listen, Blake Korum comes through for gamers, you know, if they're gonna keep doing it 11 and a half, 12 and a half, and you gave it out, I think it was 13 and a half, maybe I can't remember when you did the ticket for a million. - It was either 12 and a half or 13 and a half, but it hit what, 14? - Yeah, those are the ones you wanna look for, those in that range, you know, like dude's like big dog or always like 17 and a half, 18 and a half yards, like, you know, that's like what happened to Nick Chubb in his career. So we got to, you gotta check those low ones for those efficient guys. - What, you know what we need now? We need, now that they're starting to use big dog in the screen game, we need a longest- - Longest reception for big guys. - Longest reception for big guys, yeah. - That was a tough one. - How did your week two go aside from all the carnage that we experienced with injuries? - I had, maybe one of the worst redraft weeks, I could remember. And then I had one of my best DFS days in like a couple of years. So it balanced out. So hit or miss, but yeah, a lot of my stances preseason, obviously I'm a redraft team, so obviously didn't look great last week, but I had Jackson's with a Jigba in every lineup along. So, - Wow. - And DFS, so like, we got, I'm so into him. - What I'm, just from, I mean, obviously, JSN's always a good play, I feel like the meta last week was definitely pay up for the running backs. People weren't on chase, et cetera. JSN just wasn't talked a lot about. It wasn't like the coziest build if you were paying up for Bijon and CMC. So how did you get on JSN as being a core play? - Yeah, I mean, a lot of people were playing Lamb and Jefferson. I thought he projected better than Jefferson for me. And then we got a little bit lucky with like the rain and the way that game went for Bears Vikings. But yeah, I just thought it was a little leverage play that the matchup was great. And his weak one usage was kind of incredible. They've been moving him around everywhere. Like, he's been playing in the slot more. He's been running out route to the back field. He's also had like a lot of yak. And if he starts doing stuff like that, like I don't know how we stop this dude. - He looks so good, man. - Yeah, I was, I was someone in the preseason and it was like, is this gonna be like this year's sayquan or like the year he had was just so good, like it couldn't be repeated. Like, he was still gonna be good, like you're not gonna have like a 40% target share again, right? And two weeks in, it's like, holy shit. Like, I guess to probably the, I mean, the reason, I think he, if Darnold was healthy, he probably would have been played a little bit more. There was still the uncertainty of like, you know, lock with him, but it's like holy shit. Like it does not matter if you're getting the usage. - It might have helped him. - No, like with just lock. Like lock might just been like dude, I'm gonna throw out to this dude every time. - Well, that's what I'm like wondering do if we get, you know, Jamis and neighbors is healthy. Do you get a similar thing where he's just like, I'm just gonna, you know, give neighbors 16 targets. Again, provided he's healthy. - Yeah, yeah. We need Jamis to just get back on the practice field. I think he, he enjoyed the social media circuit this summer a little too much. And I think he was really prepared to get into the game last week. - And in his mental model, he was like, you know, Dart probably gets hurt around week eight, week nine. I got a little more time. They're like, no, you're in. He's like, fuck. - I mean, it was the work, like he's had, he's always been a volatile play. Player anyways, but like dude, like he was turfing like balls at like any backup quarterback hits. Like it was crazy. - Yes, although Cooper rushes, I'd, I'd like a word. All right, Beesburg, you're in luck here because this is the first game we're gonna talk about trying to get this chap pulled up. But he says he needs reads to talk me out of charger stack. So I do. In here, I know you have already written up this game as well as the majority of the games. - A little better this week than last week. - Yeah, you're hitting your stride here. So yeah, give me a quick kind of high level of what you're seeing here. Obviously, you do have what you labeled the Bill's Death Star colliding with whatever we want to call the charger's offense right now. The Madison Beers or whatever. So what do you see in with this game? - Yeah, I mean, you know, it's not even the, the Death Star versus whatever the Chargers can put on field offense. It's Mike McDaniel and obviously another round of Justin Herbert Discourse have kind of buried the lead that Chris O'Leary and this Charger's defense is also horrendous. The Chargers, their 30th and pressure eight on blitzes. They play man coverage, just 12% of the time. They're at the, they're a bottom five team in terms of disguising coverage free to post snap. They played Jacobi Perset and Kurt Cousins and have gotten absolutely smoked on down field throws, which is crazy 'cause you think if you're gonna play passive coverage like you're just giving up Dicken Dunk stuff. But they've, they're allowing 13 and a half yards or past them, don't throw 10 or more yards down field. The Bill's have done all the things they told us they were gonna do this obvious season. They said we're gonna throw more. They're what, sixth and pass rate over expectation right now. They have told everyone to throw down field more. Josh Allen has his highest throw rate of 10 or more yards down field since his rookie year when he was just like sugar high Josh Allen and was running around throwing bullshit. And he's absolutely just been incredible on those throws. So that's where it starts is you have the, the Bill's offense against this Chargers defense that has absolutely been deplorable. They can't rush the passer and we're getting this kind of like great match up here. On a team that is, it hasn't played since Thursday, gets a Chargers defense coming east coast to west coast east coast on a short kickoff, or early kickoff to like that's where it starts. Like how does the death star get stopped? - Yeah. Yeah, I mean initially you might have been like okay, DJ Moore doesn't play, but it sounds like DJ Moore's gonna be good to go. How are you feeling about a Joshua Palmer revenge game? That one Don Don me when you sent over the tax this morning. Like is this, I guess that is the question for the Bill's, right? I mean is it just Allen, can K, DJ Moore, is there anything else here? - Yeah, the the Ancillary guys are always gonna pop up if you're playing this well, right? Like you're just gonna get like a Josh Palmer touchdown or Corey Coleman could score. I thought Corey Coleman looked really good last Thursday. Probably the best he's actually looked as like a nuanced receiver in a small sample. He was banged up in practice to this week, but I think it is largely, you know, Concade has the most appeal and then, you know, you just hope you can get the whack him all game right with the touchdowns. DJ Moore usually plays through injury, like he always has. Remember last year he like twisted his testicle and like played the next week. - He's got about that, but don't remember that yet. - But he like rarely misses game. So I'm sure with them with the extra time, he's like, nah, I'm gonna play, maybe a little bit of volatility there too, but he's got a good matchup too. But it really, I think starts with Josh Allen and Concade. And from a DFS perspective, that's tough, right? Because we have all these running backs we wanna play. It's also our first main slate with kind of Walker on the main slate. - Oh yeah. - And you have all these good receiver plays still. So like paying up at the onesy positions does restrict you a little bit in line up building and the first two weeks of the season, we've had guys open up. Like we had the Bowers injury in week one that got people to like mayor to free up salary. Last week we had Nico Collins injury that got the Dalton Sholtz and then we had the Aaron Jones, a Jordan Mason Dyer for Aaron Jones and that free up salary. We haven't really had that yet this week. So we'll see if something happens today tomorrow. But paying up for Concade and Allen, you want to, but it does restrict you a little bit this week. - Yeah and especially with, yeah, the Allen stuff, especially right at 8K. 'Cause I think you could argue Concade is still a little under price even at 5500 relative to, you know, he has essentially as good of a role as Tremac Bride not as much underneath stuff, but man with his A dot, the big plays are there. Yeah, I do wonder is it like do you get into a spot where man where, you know, we've had some of these old school DFS plays, right? Where you jam in these high price and then go with like a Konami code running back down there at 5K. I'm gonna pass on the Josh Allen stuff, assume that it all just goes to Concade and DJ Moore and play like a different punk quarterback. - And the thing is too, it's like typically, like, you know, a lot of, even Josh Allen, we understand like it has the high ceiling, but like you're like, all right, I can easily get 25 to 30, but like he's scoring 35 to 40. (laughing) Oh my God, like that's just tough to come back when you're even playing James Winston at 4K and hoping he gets like 18 to 22 points. It's crazy. Chat wants to talk about Lad, Rupesh, wondering are we gonna get 90% route rate for him? Obviously played last week with that flat jacket on, wasn't a great game for him or the entire charger's offense, what do you feel about him in this spot? - He's practicing in full already. So that seems to be a good notion that he's just gonna kind of be back up because we had the two limited games. Any time he's been on the field though for as bad as this is gone top down for the chargers and it's gone real bad. But with him on the field Sunday, the average 6.7 yards per play that a 40.6% success rate on 28 snaps. Without him on the field, 3.6 yards per play, 30.8% success rate on 34 snaps. And in week one, 6.3 yards per play is on the field, 41% success rate, when he was off the field, 4.3 yards per play, 33% success rate, They have other issues, like Ladmer Conkey was being on the field, doesn't fix some of the other things going on. But he was the one guy that was like giving us proof of concept with the way Mike McDaniel is running this offense right now, all the pre-snap motion, the one to two-eyed receivers set stuff. Like we knew that there was a potential for Lad to like really thrive in that environment. And on a per route basis, he has. So him being in full, I think does elevate at least him. I think at least him for fantasy. The other guys we had to do a little bit of leap of faith. But I do think with Lad on the field, he's a guy you can bring back with chargers. And you know, even I think the chargers also are going to have to throw here, right? Like this is the one thing that we knew Mike McDaniel might do, right? Like be run heavy. All the Shanahan guys are, but the fact that they are a bottom three team and pass rate over expectation. And they've been the worst rushing team in terms of EPA rest of rushing offense really says something. And I just think this environment, they're just not going to be able to kind of stick with that approach. Like so we're going to get drop backs to. So I do think Lad, I think like his reception props look pretty good, like four and a halfs, a lot of four and a halfs out there. I think that's where I would start, you know, for him. Yeah, I was looking at that underdog right now. I'm not seeing receptions. I see yards at 54 and a half. Do you prefer receptions, though, if hadn't given those two? Yeah, I think, I think it's probably a game or two you can ladder his receptions to like five to like you could probably, I would probably go to like eight, you know, do that little ladder build? Yeah, yeah. Yep. That looks good. And then, you know, draft Kings, he is 59, 100 there. I feel like the other big wrinkle with the chargers, at least early on this week, it was like Nejoku and Kolar headed to IR. Is it Aronde Gadsden season? And then they're like psych, Charlie Kolar, isn't going to IR? I don't know if that means he's still going to play this week or how you're reading that. What do you think they ran? So they ran out of short term IR spots. Oh, okay, there's they have a limitation. So they could have put them on full season hour, but then you can't come back. Like he, so they just ran out of spots. So he, you, you expect him to be inactive? They just didn't have the spot for him. Okay, gotcha. Yeah, he's not, he was in a sling after, like after the game and wasn't, he's not practicing. Yeah, that was my read is that they ran out. They just, like they hit that cap where they couldn't put him on season ending because they are expecting to return this year. So do you have the courage to tell Gadsden or do we need to have a conversation about a man named hate in Ruchi? They also have Justin Herbert's brother on that. That's what Davis was telling me. He, he loved that fun fact that our first ever nepotide end is what I realized there. Yeah, that would be incredible if we get the battery. But yeah, I think he's in play for a couple of reasons. One, him playing also should push them to throw more because he's just not an asset in the run game. Yeah, you know, last year they only ran the ball on 30% of the snaps. He played so far this year, they've only run the ball on 38% of the snaps. He's played, obviously, it's not a lot of snaps this year. So the game environment, I think him on the field pushes them to drop back. And he's 3500, like him and Kenyan Sedeek are like the two guys that are going to get elevated roles this week in that price range. So you can combat some of the the Schultz run back stuff. Definitely think I've made worse plays at tight end. Yeah. What is that? Yeah, I guess the question we always have with DFS is that is it like a one-off play you make or is it like, look, if you're taking the plunge on on Herbert, you know, always tossing the cheap tight end with the quarterback is never a bad move. But it's I guess like, you know, would you, would you flex two tight ends with Gatson and Concade if you're playing like an Allen lineup and try to get into that game cheaply? I guess it gets a little trickier there. Yeah, that's a way to play it. I think is I would prefer to play that I talked about. There's a day on our roto grinder show that I have trouble still getting to Herbert this week. I like his like passing yardage prop the way to play it. But on this particular slate with you've got Allen and a good and a good match up at home against the bad defense, you know, off rest. We've got my homes in a great spot. We've got party in a great spot. We've got this DAC first Lamar game. I just don't think Herbert has like the requisite ceiling I want to chase on the slate. So I'm going to play through it for a couple of different angles. So I do think Gatson may be playing him with like a Concade is a way to get unique. Yeah, I like that that shout there. But yeah, I have a hard time still just drawing myself to like the ceiling outcome. Cause there's just too many still moving parts that like we have some counting stats for Herbert to maybe like there's some floor potential here. But like it's hard to like really kind of project like the like a top five finish this week. Yeah, I see in his passing yards at 224.5. He had 192 last week, 209 against the Cardinals. But that seems probably the way to play where it's like you can still question the ceiling for DFS. But 224 and what I assume is a pretty big negative game script makes a little bit of sense there. Yeah. And both guys against the bills of smoke that number through the first two weeks. Stroud Ted 274 golf 327. And we just talked about like there how they've just run the ball like way above expectation. Like I just don't think they're going to be in a state to be able to do that here. Yep. You mentioned our first game with Kenneth Walker on the main slate. Let's start here. If you if you redraft today, Kenneth Walker. And we might have had this conversation last week. But now we get another awesome game. Where does Kenneth Walker go in a week, three season long draft? I think you would be in consideration for one, oh, two, one, oh, three. As early as that, depending on how you feel about the receivers. But RB two or three. And we'll see, you know, if panic's coming back, if you can inject some more floor into B. John, because we took it for granted week one, right? We're like, oh, if this dude just did this a Cooper rush, it'll be, we'll be safe, right? And because like, that was the H. That's always been the tear down for H. And it's like the usage is going to be there, but the team environment is so poor. And that's what got beach in in week two. We kind of just like fluffed it off because a week one, he had 10 targets and all those catches. But Walker, especially with the way my homes is looked like my homes on Sunday night, because the first game against the Broncos, my home still was kind of wishy washy. Like there was no downfield passing. He did, he looked good from a mobility stance, but he was like 31st and like pass rate, completion rate, blood expectation. And then Sunday night, this is, this was like 2022, my home stuff for like everyone's involved in the offense. They're, they're running play action, they're running screens. That's where I was like, oh, like the ceiling here could be like really juicy. Kenneth Walker had this in a worksheet, this note, it was the highest scoring PPR game for running back without a touchdown since Christian McCaffrey in week three. Like, that's the kind of usage he's getting, like right out of the box. Now, he's not going to finish what 500 touches. Like he's tracking for like 475 or something, but in this offense in the homes, looking the way it does his receiving ability. And then like, obviously, we've always known as a talented running back. Man, everything is just really aligned for him. Yeah, and it does look like, you know, I'm looking at some ETR projections here. They have him as like the biggest value on the slate. Actually, Gibbs right there with him, but he costs 1,400 less and gives that 7,400. I mean, this is going to be an Uber chalk spot there. What other creative ways, either, you know, betting his some of his lines or do you just pair him with my homes, do like the Caleb and Diadre swith thing from week one, where it's like, that's all you need. Yeah, I mean, my homes right now are throwing a running backs, the highest rate of his career. And like I said, Andy Reed, I kind of thought he was like with the enemy coming back. The one thing they would do was like try to brief back some like the running back screen stuff. And they've done it with them at Johnson too. He's looked really good in the past game as well. So it's been nice to have that back. And that stuff's just like really injured Rishi rice, who just has a little bit of a different route tree. He still looks good. Like when he catches the football, like he's good after the catch. It's just like as a route runner, like he's just he just isn't having that nuance. So when you remove like that diet of near the line of scrimmage targets from like his from his menu, like it's just really hard for him to be like a like a real successful fantasy play. Yeah, anything, what, what does your take on Rishi rice? He obviously has been, I would say a disappointment relative to his draft cost and just not getting the PPR scam. That's what we've got. Yeah. So I mean, Kelsey rice, like if you are trying to get into chiefs here, I mean, same spot that the Niners had last week, where we saw a pretty CMC and Kittle all show up for good games. Are there any other angles that you're thinking about of how to play this massive team total? Yeah, it's tough because you know, we haven't seen the problem with like trying to get on someone like Rishi rice from a DFS perspective. It's like the market hasn't moved like where's usages yet. You know, he's like, he should be what like a like a five, he should be like five one five two. Like really with the way he's being utilized and like, so that hasn't caught up yet. That's what makes it hard as you are paying a premium. Whereas you look at guy like Parker Washington, it's the inverse. Like why the hell is Parker Washington still six K like what are we doing? Like what are we doing? Yeah, what are we doing? Like Parker Washington should be like six, eight, like maybe seven K and so we're still trying to catch up to where the DFS price points that have caught up to like where actually guys are getting utilization because this would be a spot where like you would say, like, yeah, I would love to bring Rishi rice and say they do get him more targets here in this game in this matchup. But you're paying a premium for it. I don't want to pay a premium for that outcome. - Right, and also like. again, we're trying to win DFS tournaments and it's just like the way, even if he does get more targets, right, it's going to probably be, you know, underneath it, I don't know, it's just not a super exciting profile for fantasy. What about like, you know, the age old question is, is there anything on the dolphins to bring it back with, you know, the H and stuff is been rough? What do you think? No, there's not. Kale Douglas looks like he's going to miss this week. He was kind of like the one guy at his price where we were like, at least he's getting some stuff and some downfield targets where he could beat his cost, right? H and runs in the same problem like Rishi Rice, like you got to pay still the the preseason price for for the outcome. The usage is good. Like we knew it would be, right? Like from like a target, like a snap share, target share, touch share perspective, it's just the environment is that lousy. Like they've been trailing by double digit points for 68% of their offensive snaps. They don't get to the red zone, so you don't get like the suck out for, you know, touchdown equity and they still have a guy that's not really, you know, that's going to scramble and steal away some of those check down stuff. So just really, really rough also because Malik Willis, he's facing a career high rate of loaded boxes because teams are just spying Malik Willis. So, and then you obviously don't have Tyree Kill and Waddle on the outside, like previous years for teams to take account for. So he's facing, you know, eight men in the box, almost 50% of his runs. Yeah. I mean, just going back to the Walker thing real quick as far as, you know, his receiving and rushing yards prop. I'm seeing 84 and a half rushing yards. I mean, he easily cleared that the first two weeks, 173 and 117. Receiving yards a little higher 24 and a half, he cleared that easily last week was 61, but he was at 18 versus Denver. I guess there could be the fear of they're just smashing the dolphins that he's not catching his mini balls. Yeah, definitely. I mean, some of these, some of the rates stuff with the chiefs, like I said, is just inherently going to level out like we talked about, like he's not going to get 500 touches. Like we all know that. So it's really tough to like go all in on some of his overs. Now that they've been kind of juiced up and like, it could just be a spot where this is where they could alleviate some of his workload. I did see, you know, I gave out on our prop show the, I met Johnson rushing yards. It was okay. It was 23 and a half, both kale and black and Mike Washington have hit this in the first two weeks against the dolphins. So that's like one angle I was looking at for low leverage. So if I'm not getting cute with them in Johnson, like in manage leagues or DFS, but that's like a way I think to play it because like I said, we just know he's not like Kenneth Walker giving his history. Like it would be egregious for them to just keep giving him 28 touches again. Yes. Yeah. I mean, like, you know, even, you know, he had 15 rushing yards last week, 24 before what do you like the receiving numbers? The one he's cleared both weeks. Do you like the receiving yards or does it kind of ruin the narrative of like, hey, he's just mopping it up in garbage time. He's also not catching passes. Well, to tie into like your initial point was the receiving stuff. Maybe they don't have to one have as many drop backs, like as they had last week. So they remember they played a competitive game last week all the way through. Yeah. And week one, it was efficiency, right? Like he didn't have a lot of targets week one. I think he had a long get you that one real long game. Yep. So like, I think from a volume perspective, the targets maybe are a little more fragile this week. And like they work, I mean, his two targets each game. So yeah, I like the fact that he could go back is a week one they destroyed the Broncos and he had eight runs. That's why I think we go back. He only had two runs in a competitive game. But we made really eight to 10 carries from him here. So that's why I was thinking about playing through like the rushing. Yeah. I think that makes most sense like narrative wise too of like how this, this game would go. Yeah. I like that. Emma Johnson, 24 and a half. What did you get it at? What did you? 23 and half? There you go. That's why they call you CLV reeps. You know, he's always getting the better number. Let's talk. We were talking a little bit about Breast Hall earlier with cops, but I want to talk about Garrett Wilson here, you know, sneakily kind of got, I don't I don't want to say outplayed, but you could certainly say 80 Mitchell had better usage than him last week at the 12 target game. Are we in a different era here with Garrett Wilson or is that kind of small sample size noise? No, I mean, the packers that are a real good job of taking away Geno's first read, a lot of anti Mitchell stuff was, you know, him coming off of Garrett Wilson and then getting to 80 Mitchell. So I think you'll have a few of those games now. And he's got capable guys around him, you know, the only real capable guy he's played with over his career is Devonta Adams that back after the air and Rogers year. But this particular match, if I think just sets up for him to actually get back to a lot of those first reads being in a favorable match up and being open for him, because the Lions are just, they're just down so bad defensively, they lost the Vantamatics now on top of the injuries they already had. We, we will get the safeties back at some point, Kirby Joseph and Brian Branch, but that's still a week's away at this point. And Calvin Shepherd's just resorted like these opening two games that just what I call it the angry blitzing, where you, you play a guy in Madden and he's just cooking you and you're like, well, I'm just going to blitz every play. I just, I'll hope something happens. Like that's what exactly what he did to John. He's like, he, I'm not going to stop him. So he might as well just blitz him and just maybe we'll get lucky, right? Like some, some variants will happen. But Garrett Wilson, like this is his bread and butter, like man coverage, teams that blitz heavy, genos miss also been really awesome against the blitz through two weeks, 75% completion rate, nine yards per target or per pass attempt. And he's targeted Garrett Wilson on 44% of his routes against man coverage so far. And when he's been blitz, Geno Smith, that is he's targeted Garrett Wilson, 33% of the time. So I do think this is going to be a first read target game with those first three targets are going to be Garrett Wilson and isolation versus coming off of Garrett Wilson and then getting to add an I Mitchell because at an I Mitchell, the big tell is how you know that that was not first three targets is like the eight out wasn't outrageous. Yeah. When he gets the, when he, when 80 Mitchell's getting first read targets, it's the shot place. It's, it's, that's when, that's when he's getting like the first read looks, he had to come off. It was, it was, they were doing a conch stuff to take Garrett Wilson away last week. Therefore, he was getting to 80 Mitchell. Yeah, as a drop from 19.7 to 14 in Wilson, hovering right at that 10.7, 10.9, is it, um, would it be volume or yards? What would be your preferred way to, to get into the Garrett Wilson spot? Obviously in DFS, uh, on draft Kings, I assume you like him this week. I do like him on draft Kings more than Fandall, uh, obviously for the catches and then all the stuff. I like all the props, the yards, the catch his, uh, this is a game where them being road dogs, uh, the one worry that you have with this game, like maybe letting down is that the Lions have really started slow both games. And if I, I assume the jets in their heart of hearts, like would love to like slow this game down and grind it out. So we need the Lions that come out, uh, fast typically in this spot, the Dan Campbell Lions, off of a loss at home, have been like good house money to like really push teams. So that's what we're looking for though. We need the Lions to get the ball first, go down, score, put this game in a game state to where the jets are now forced to, to match the Lions. And then I think we're going to have a really potential high ceiling game for, for Garrett Wilson here, you know, triple digit yardage potential. It's normally business is usual for the Lions. I guess the one guy I've seen some people, you know, maybe reaching for the panic button on would be Jamison Williams. Do you have any thoughts on, on his role through two games or what it could look like here? Yeah, we came in last week and we're like, Oh, week one was, you know, the usage was there. It was positive. It just, you know, he didn't catch the football, which is a problem. And then week two, some things like change for him, right? Like his route tree was a little bit different. So maybe we took that one game sample. And it's like, Oh, this is how he'll be used weekly. Maybe it's more matchup dependent on how they're going to use him. Maybe it was because just the offensive line was down bad. The game state, it's tough to say, right? Like we're just trying to figure some of this stuff out. Eventually, we know that he is going to pop down because he's just out there. Like, you know, this is, when you have a guy this talented and he's on the field, literally 95% of the past plays, something's eventually going to find him. I think what we knew though, and we talked about this last week too, was a lot of people were talking about like this offense, the Drew Petsing offense features, this ex-receiver. And it's like, well, hold on, like he's never had Amon Ross St. Brown. And we seen two weeks in the fox hole guy is still the sun god. Like the chips are, when the chips are down, sun gods get in the rock. For sure. Yeah. So it would, would he be, like, if you were getting into this game for DFS, would it be like a classic, you know, golf, Gibbs, pass catcher, bring it back with Garrett Wilson, that type of thing. Yeah, I actually like this game too, from like an onslaught perspective. And I like it through the line side. Because the only way this game, I think, really pops is if the lions drive it. Like, you know, so I think that's the, you know, I think we're going to see people actually build Geno stacks this week. But if Geno's got going off of value, it means the lions are, I think, really pushing and putting up a lot of points. So obviously, those guys are expensive doing a gif, a golf, Gibbs, plus a almond raw stack is very pricey. But the jets do have some other guys outside of Garrett Wilson that I think are interesting. We talked about Kenyans Cedeek with Mason Taylor being out. You know, he becomes a cheap play. And it's gross. But I think from an onslaught perspective, I think it makes sense. Isaiah Williams, especially on draft Kings, right? Because you're going to have, because this is how you make the the this work. But he's he ran a route on 88% of the dropbacks last week. He had six targets. He's not a guy that's going to get you probably 20, but at his price point, if he's a guy that you can luck box into a touchdown or catch six to eight passes, he makes this thing kind of work. Yep. Let's talk about the Niners who have another massive team total. It kind of looks like the same spot is last week. You know, Mike Evans, a little bit banged up, but huge favorites here, versus the Cardinals. I assume you like the setup for their their big dogs here. I like it a lot for Purdy. So it's kind of flying under the radar a little bit, but the 49ers have also been a team that have gone past heavy these opening two weeks. You know, it's nice to see all these Shanahan guys like breaking out except for the Mike McDaniel. It's supposed to be the chosen one, right? That's right. But the 49ers are currently third and pass rate over expectation through two games, which is a significant change for them. We got another game where the pass catchers came out a little more banged up. Evans has like this hip thing. Demarcus Robinson goes on IR. And what we really like for this particular setup in this game is we have another defense in the Arizona Cardinals that just faced a Shanahan disciple in Brian Flurry. And they played this Seattle Seahawks the same way like the Miami Dolphins played the 49ers and they're matching deep these these heavier sets with base personnel. Miami match San Francisco based defense 61% of the time. That was the fourth highest rate last week. The Arizona Cardinals match the Seattle Seahawks with base defense 73% of the snaps in week two. That was the highest rate in the NFL. And against base defenses this year, Brock Purdy 15 is 17 passing 12 yards her pass attempt. And this isn't a one year thing with him like Shanahan. This is what the whole system is predicated on. That's why McVeigh started to going with the heavy personnel because remember McVeigh when he left Shanahan, he got rid of the heavy personnel. Now he replaced the fullback with an extra tight end. But when Shanahan or McVeigh left Shanahan, he went to 11 personnel and started using that Cooper Cup, Robert Woods. Like I'm going to get this guy in motion, get him second level on a linebacker when we run the ball. And then when we have to throw on hard mode, we don't have one of these donkeys on the field. Like we got guys that can win in the past game. But you know, going back to to the Purdy angle here, since he's entered the NFL, Purdy six in the NFL and completion rate against base defense, fourth in yards or past him, just under 10 yards or pass attempt and seventh and touch down rate. So really like this spot for Purdy, you know, especially them getting to invite that base personnel look. And the big benefit here, I think this week will be CMC because when you look at the surface level stats for CMC, you're like, oh, they did the same thing in week two. He only had 51% of the backfield touches. Like is this a thing? But when you go under the hood, 80% of the offensive snaps in the first half, he outtouched Caleb like eight to two in the first half through three quarters, he outtouched him 13 to four. It's that Shanahan finally got a little bit religion. Me and Crane were calling Shanahan like the guy you never want to be the DD. Like because he's like doing stuff like optimally. And then you look over at like 12 third and you're like, dude, you're taking shots. Like, what do you do it, man? Like he only played CMC one snap in the fourth quarter of a blowout. He's learning. Maybe he's adapting. But going back to that two personnel, the base, the base personnel and what Nick rail us has done. Because remember, the Cardinals kept Nick rail us as their defensive coordinator through the Jonathan Ganon firing against Nick rail us CMC five catches for 40 and a touchdown last year, 10 for 88. The year before that, five catches for 72, two tuds, seven catches for 71. He leads the team in target share through two games against two eye coverages at 29%. Like said, Evans is banged up. Like it feels like this is a game where CMC could push like eight to 10 targets. Yep. And then as far as like if you are stacking this, would you do just pretty in CMC or do you toss on Kittle? Are you pretty spooked on Evans, even if he does go or what do you think there? Yeah, I think Evans and Kittle still don't have the full route participation to make you extremely bullish. I mean, Kittle still only ran 14 routes last week. It did go up and went from 47% to 56%. But I think they're still managing him. He could still obviously, he's George Kittle. He can turn four targets into something. But you're still paying a premium for a guy that thinks it's probably going to be around 60% with like another step up. Evans, same way, the one guy I think that is going to be on the field a lot is Debo Samuel by default. Yeah. And we saw that last week. He went up to 80% route participation. It's probably going to go up a little bit higher because, you know, Brandon Cooks isn't just going to get thrown into the fire. And they're just not going to play a lot of three wide receiver stuff with the run out that they've had with these wide receivers. So Debo becomes a little bit interesting as well as maybe ancillary piece. But I like Perty with CMC. Yeah. And the pricing on draft Kingswood Evans makes it super tough. 6,800 is pricey. Kittle 4,800 is pricey. So that makes sense there. And then looking at, you know, the prop stuff, I assume Perty passing yards past TDs and then like CMC receiving yards are kind of like where you think they could really cook here. Yeah. I've been waiting to see the receiving yardage posted in books and they haven't because I think they're waiting to see on Mike Evans like status to post it. But I've been really kind of itching to see catches and receptions for him. Yeah. I just pulled it up too. I'm only seeing a touchdown in 54 and a half rushing yards. It's like it just don't even post any CMC rushing yardage numbers like no, but they just give us the reason. We're not interested in that. Yeah. What about, you know, the same question with kind of like the lines and the jets, you know, is there any bring back stuff here to push them? Obviously, McBride is is always in play. But is there anything else for the Cardinals you'd be interested in? Not a whole lot. I mean, 49ers have played two really weird games to open the year. Neither to each team was just content to run out the clock against them in Australia. The Rams are just disinterested. The Rams Sean McVey and the Rams through the ball 12% below expectations in week one. They're like, let's get back home. Then last week, the dolphins do about 18% below expectations. So I do think we will see at least the team not completely turtle against the 49ers for once. Arizona hasn't been as passive as a year ago, but they have been pass rate over expectation both weeks above. And now, and remember, they want a game against the chargers. And they were still week one 15th and pass rate versus expectation in the league. So I do think we're going to see dropbacks in this game. If I were to get cute, I would say these games who reads I love it when you get cute. I think Jeremiah love becomes a little bit interesting. Maybe not from a playing him from a TFS side, but I think from maybe like a receiving percentage prop stuff. He's been targeted on 30% of his routes through two games. And he's gone, it's been a slow trickle. He's gone 26% route participation to 39% last week. But if we are expecting them to trail and still throw, I think that makes him a little bit interesting in this spot. And then when you look at the 49ers, the run defense has been really bad to open games. And then as these teams have just been willing to kind of just turtle, it's gotten better. But the run defense is still suspect they also lost CJ West. Again, this week's they they're down a bunch of defensive linemen still coming into this game. So maybe I'll get cute with like a Jeremiah love longest rush and some receiving props with him. Because I think he's going to get a little more continue. Just keep getting build up to because he he went from 41% of the backfield touches the 57% last week. I know it still looks like it's a complete split. And it's it's going to for a little bit. But yeah, it's a slow burn, slow burn here. Sando mentioned he's seeing it on his screen there at underdog 39 and a half for seems he yards and four and a half for receptions. I assume both those look pretty good to you. Yeah, like I said, I gave you the splits against Nick Rayless. He's he's at least 40 receiving yards and all four games. And he's had at least five catches in all those games. And he's had at least 70 yards and three of the four games. So and then when you factor in the Evans all the wide receiver stuff, I think you're getting a little bit of chance to ladder to there you go. There you go. There you go. Hit the ladder there. Let's hit a few more games here. Oh, they're so fun. This is in the weeds with Reeves. I've been I just dropped the link in the chat to sharp football analysis. We've got the the worksheet up here tab and through the different games. Reeves, do we still have the same promo code as last week if people want to get all of the worksheet goodness. So we don't and I asked them to give me a promo and they have not gotten back to me. So I apologize as well. No, that's some that's a marketing technique. So you're making people want it even more, Reeve. I mean, I probably they're they say they're going to give them to me to like half stuff for the shows and they just have it. I'm not a priority as you see. You see how they treat me. You're a priority with me here Reeves. But didn't didn't you have a generic one for last week? We did, but I don't think it's live anymore. Okay. All right. Well, here you go. Then you can just you can screenshot the screen share today and then you can just you know print it out and read it. Let's see here. Let's go over and talk about Jacksonville in New England and specifically Drake May. I've been a disappointing start to the season. Literally saw news today that AJ Browns expected to be out like six to eight weeks. So on the higher end. Just not good stuff all around there. What do you see in with Drake May and is this a spot he could bounce back? I do think so. I mean, think about this game like this like this game would have been kind of really intoxicating for gamers a year ago. And honestly, It would have been intoxicating for people like if just the the Jaguars kept up what they were doing in week one But the fact that they're coming off of a down game in Denver like This game feels like it should be a lot more appealing right then I know Then it then it is and I understand why but I still think there's a chance here for this game to be really Exciting and for Drake May particularly to kind of get off the Schneid a little bit. This is the the worst past defense He's faced since before the playoffs last year I gave out bonics passing yards and ladders Last week on our prop show and he yeah easily easily got there Against the Jaguars who are a little bit of a past funnel because they're really good against the run I think that the Patriots are gonna struggle to run in this game there and we pushed a pass And we've seen to Sean Watson and bonics both throw for over nine yards her past attempt against Jacksonville both completed over 70% of their passes We do wish that you know Michael Wenmoo wasn't wouldn't got hurt last week Because Greg Van Routen came in and got absolutely murked But this defense also doesn't have a great past rush either It's interesting They're kind of built just like the stop the run and they're really weak everywhere else and they lost Devon Lloyd Who is absolutely smoking for Carolina through two weeks in the middle of the field? So I do like Drake May Like I was talking to Dagle about it and I was like I don't know if he's gonna make the cut because there's so many awesome quarterbacks with ceiling potential in the slate But I am interested in like a Drake May Romo dobs Parker Washington Yeah, type of build here to build around in this game I think because you always get the rushing with Drake May too as like an out. Yeah, so I do think this is a bounce back spot for May That is the hard thing with I Think a lot of the rushing quarterbacks to and then do you feel like forced to stack it with a Romo dobs and then you have to be like Is there too much opportunity cost you know to burn one of those wide receiver spots? But I mean dobs had the big play last week wanted to get to like 96 yards So there's like there's a little upside there and if if May is breaking the slate with a 30 point game I mean one of those pass catchers has to be pretty close to optimal in that scenario Yeah, and last week they never got pushed by the Steelers I definitely think the Jaguars are also going to have a bounce back game like Worst teams have gone to the god are better to you know good teams have gone to Denver look bad basically So I'm saying like it's okay. It's okay to excuse kind of what happened to a degree last week because what the Jaguars have put On tape for us since the middle of last year. I don't think we should just throw the baby out the bathler like you know, dude And but since the Steelers didn't push the jet the Patriots at all last week They just also just went run heavy like Reggie Gilliam played 38% of snaps they just played a fullback they ran in the ball even though like outside of the one traving on run Like it wasn't that good running the football that I think they're gonna get pushed in terms of On the scoreboard so they're gonna be throwing more and we saw dobs, you know get outside The 90th 1% route participation rate on the outside and that's where you want to attack the The Jaguars is with the boundary corners So I think he could maybe cash a big one in So yeah, that's I'm looking at him you also get Hunter Henry I think involved in these these games too when you are on Drake May because he led the team and talked Margaret's last week again They just didn't have to really throw a lot against the good defense But he was on the on the field the most of all the pass catcher So he's never like a super fun sexy click But he is a guy that like could theoretically get you a multiple touchdown game Yep, yeah, I'm seeing dobs so on on draft Kings is 5100 39 and a half receiving yard prop I mean, I guess the question is - well one. I'm curious. Do you think is this like Can you get out in front of a true Trevian Henderson flippening here at 5200 if you like the spotters? This still kind of too much of a murky backfield for you My my worry is still like I said just a matchup right like you go back to To Jacksonville they've already opened the year allowing three point two yards or carry to running backs That's six their third and success rate against running back runs and this goes back to last year The they haven't a lot of running back to rush for 80 yards in a game against them since 2024 The only guy to go over 75 yards is Jonathan Taylor against them So like this this is they're building off of what they already showed last year and then the other thing with Henderson is The like the the pass catching role is still just not an anchor right like you don't have that as an out So if you don't hit the home run run like what do we really have like we're literally that's all we're sitting on with Travian right now because last week the consistency still wasn't there you get the 40 harder which is great We gladly will not give that back especially our the best ballbacks To have a 40 yard or the way the seasons started for Travian headers said that how are you have a week to 40 our toucher on you're like all right cool Yeah, but to chase it like from a de-invest directive like you you only have one out like the margin is he has to have a long touchdown Right, yeah, and I guess on the on the jack side is like it's literally Parker Washington There's basically no other place here, right? He's the dude then I do think we're gonna have Brian Thomas at some point He's looked good these first two games is that usage is been good tough matchups, right? Yeah, he's just he's just runs this open I talked about this when we were drafting him this summer I was like dude like his first eight weeks are like it just a nightmare right like he goes Denzel award week one And he gets banged up in that game Sir Tant he was the Sir Tant sacrifice last week He's got Christian Gonzales this week DJ Turner next week When you're Mitchell the week after that Derek Stingley the week after that like just a tough I do think he might be like a back half buy though Yeah, no for sure and yeah the usage is is really good and eventually right like defenses will have to start to focus on Parker Washington trying to take him away You would think things would lighten up for Brian Thomas junior here All right, we are gonna segue to talk about this game in Brazil and in honor of that We're also going to do a final coffee giveaway today hashtag Brazil. There is a Brazilian blend in the vassaleros in sons Shop here. So we're going to be very on theme hashtag Brazil in the chat We will spin this in a few minutes at the end of the show But the note you gave me on this one was can Brazil ruin Dallas, Baltimore Which is yeah, like we've seen so many of these abroad games just completely underwhelm and yet on paper Especially if we happen to get Zay flowers back here like man this game could be fun Yeah, and I met that because supposedly this field is a nightmare like going in like there's already talked about like they were Trying to move this game because the the field is taking out of water and it's just not ready to be played supposedly The the soccer team that regularly plays here complains about this field all the time like So that's why I brought that up You know, we don't want Lamar Jackson and Zay flowers and CD lamb like out here on this sloppy field the big dog right like I guess I'll track your seat toe would be fine in the mud, but We want our we want this game to be high flying because it has all the juice dude like all of the juice like from a matchup Perspective there's so many angles that are promising for like all these passing game pieces and obviously big dog Against this cowboys run defense that has been smoked an outside zone through two weeks But particularly like the Lamar angle on this slate where we know Josh Allen's gonna be played because he's dropping nukes everywhere and Lamar's like the one dude we have that like theoretically combat him the cowboys have a lot of the rushing yards 54 yards The dart and week one Daniels had 70 rushing yards at the half before he exited that game So like we get some Lamar rushing stuff The cowboys haven't stopped anyone at the past and they're gonna be without Mollie Cooker who has a broken arm Kobe Bryant is gonna miss this game So like all the like their their secondary is in shambles right now We'll see if Demar and Marvian overshown plays in this game. It sounded like he might but Dallas can't get any pressure on the quarterback And that was the only thing that stopped Lamar last week was the offensive line got banged up in the second half last week And he was awful with pressure against Brandon Staley He was pressured on 56% of his dropbacks in the second half of that game 1.9 yards for pass attempt when pressure down Sunday So if Dallas isn't getting pressure and they also have all these injuries in the back end Man, and we get say flowers back like it. This is the setup. So come on Brazil. Let's get that field cleaned up Yep, a fire that can in spot. I mean, I'm seeing the Lamar rushing at 39 and a half He was at 34 last week 40 the week before But you think that Dallas matchup could lead to to even more there. Yeah, I like his rushing yards a lot in this spot So if we can get a tug out of him too like we got to find a way because we can't all make Josh Allen lineups No, we we can't I mean we will try We'll probably fail. I mean, I feel like the other obviously You know if Zay does go I mean Bateman had incredible usage last week He was you know really the focal point of the passing game. I guess. How do you feel about him? if Zay Does go if he doesn't I assume Bateman will look good again Yeah, I'm still look Warm on him if far as even comes back just because we haven't seen a large enough sample So week one they just threw Bateman at at sauce gardener and like they'd move flowers in the slot And they had a great game plan like shot out of a key like they knew to attack the Colts in the middle of the field But he still was out there Bateman on 93% of their routes in week one and so it's like all right It was and because we haven't seen flowers play outside of the 11 routes We need to see like how this looks with like everyone playing like a full game where you could attack like a really good matchup from all angles Even Mark Andrews, right like we need to see what his route target share looks like both playing as a flowers because everything right now the samples just built on Everything outside of 11 say flowers routes. So we got see but so flowers plays. I don't think it puts me necessarily off Bateman if we're staff backing this game, like going in on the full game environment, uh, and Andrews as well, be just because, uh, I don't want to say flowers being back nuke those guys. I just don't think we have a large enough sample to, to call that. Yep. The other guy in this game, you know, a little bit of panic in the season long streets on, on George Pickens, uh, you show his stat lines here, three for 28, six targets, six for 48 targets, assuming you think this is a bounce back spot for pickens. I definitely think it's, it, there's potential for it. I do think from a matchup perspective, CD Lam's law is more outside signals, but this is the exact opposite of what happened last year, uh, George Pickens, I have a note in here. He was third in points, go to expectation last year amongst wider sewers. CD Lam was 214, like, it's just flipped. Like, you know, I mean, like, this is just how things, this how regression works. Like you, there's no like, there's no like bell curve in fantasy football. Like it's guys don't just like gradually score their points. It's like a 40 point game, 10 point game. It's a, but it's a scatter shot and sometimes regression can like just really kind of bottom out. You run really hot. And you're in really cold, uh, but if George Pickens, I promise you, if George Pickens is getting like wide receiver 20 usage, so this is what he has right now and the Cowboys are still being this effective in offense and remind you, the Cowboys can't run right now. Through two weeks, the Cowboys are one of the worst rushing offense in the NFL. So eventually, if they're throwing and they're still, we believe in this offense, like Pickens is going to get his, and this is going to smooth out a little bit, even if it's not as pure as it, as it went last year for us. Yeah. And you, you have it here, bolded in the worksheet. I've been calling Pickens Dallas T Higgins and that feels appropriate for how we should handle him. No, and you nailed it too. Like we've ping ponged those, you know, elite wide receiver twos for years, right? It was like Jalen Waddle, DeVonte Smith would be these round two picks. And then it's like, if they have a bad year, then we send them back to round five. And if they score a bunch of touchdowns, we say, no, no, you get to go back to round two. But we do it every year with these guys. Yeah. 100%. So, and I think this is a game where the Cowboys are going to have to score in match points. So I like the passing side overall that deck did play against Jesse Miner's defense. Now, mind you, it wasn't the Ravens. This is what the Chargers I see. And that had an effective game. They got, they lost the game because their defense was so bad last year, like it is now. But that had an effective game and an effective fantasy game, typically like Jesse Miner, the Coverage He Runs with Favor CD Lamb, but pickins in that game had 130 yards and a touchdown. So, he's a, remember, he's a guy that can always get over, regardless. So it just looking at it through the DFS lens, you know, everybody's fairly pricey here. I do assume people will get into bateman and Andrews for salary relief. But are there any specific angles of how you would prefer to attack this? I think just deck doubles are the way I'll try to do it. Go through that angle. I think you can also play the Cowboys receivers with Lamar too, just because Lamar is other ways to get there. So yeah, this one's not as easy for the onslaught, like we talked about, like Juts Lions is an onslaught. We've had two games this year. The first one was Lions Saints Week 1 where you could literally stack that entire game and have money for 3K for a defense. Last week, Commanders Cowboys, you could do the same thing and stack them up. This one is not as easy. I think Juts Lions, when we talk about those small field entries, where you're firing those single entry bullets, the lines Juts would be the onslaught game. This one is more of a traditional, like you've got to get to the right pieces type of game. And I think it'd be like, if you're doing stacks with Lamar, and this is Assuming Flowers plays, you would maybe bring back still a bateman or Andrews with like a lamb or just a pickens one off or just play the deck side with Big Dog. Yep. This is one of the late games here as well. So you'll have maybe a little bit of late swap flexibility depending on how you want to attack that one. San Francisco, Arizona, Las Vegas and the Saints and Minnesota Tampa Bay, the other late games this week. I think we have time for one more spot here. Let's talk about the Rams rushing game. They play what is it Sunday night football against Denver here. We'll obviously have the pukas stuff hanging in the balance, although that doesn't sound good. What are you seeing with the Rams? Are we going back to the Blake Corum rushing prop longest rush here if they give it to us? As long as they don't juice it up, we're going to keep going back to the well. I think I told you if it stays anywhere from like 11 and a half to 13 and a half, I'm still in, especially for this matchup. So Devonte Adams absolutely drops a hammer on Monday night. He's now around 135 routes with puk off the field and he's been targeted on 39.3% of those. The problem though, for this particular spot, he's still it's Devonte Adams, like he's going to get targets and I think he's going to get schemed usage still. But with no other viable Rams pass catcher assuming Nikku is out, he's still just going to find Patrick's or TAN a lot because Devonte Adams isn't like a huge slot player. They basically just played Terrence Ferguson as their slot receiver last week. So he's he's not going to have the same runout going against all these backups that the against the Giants. So that then leads it's like, all right, well, how do the Rams find leverage here? And I end earth some pretty interesting stuff about the Rams run game against this Broncos defense. So the Rams run man gap runs at the highest rate in the NFL 66% Denver, a small sample size this year. There are three yards per carry, but it's only been two games, but I went back to even last year. Denver is 27th in yards per carry against those runs. They're 30th and explosive run rate, which you care about for our play, Corms stuff against those runs. So I do think McVeigh is going to try to attack this game from a 13 personnel stance of getting their big boys on the Denver big boys and in running the rock here against them. Let's see here, as far as DFS stuff, obviously this will be, be show down, you know, game for people here. Are there, are there any other sports betting angles or things that you would, you would do with this spot? Well, we got to see what they do at Terrence Ferguson, right? Yeah. This year, they come out and line him. Like I said, he basically played the fact though slot. He saw a career high 30% target share, played 40% of his snaps in the slot. And then you go back to last year, Denver has allowed 8.8 yards per target to tight ends from the slot. Only one touchdown, but give us some a chance to maybe catch some yardage, longest catch, something like that, depending where they line it, especially with Adams now soaking up that Patrick's or Tan bullet, right? Yeah. You know, I think he's the, I think it's Ferguson is the one guy that I think has to stand out in this game for the Rams, they have successful throwing because, you know, Adams, even if he goes, say Adams has a good game, like, what do we think a good game against Sir Tan is? It's probably like eight for a hundred, right? Something in that range. He did drop one awesome game at the Raiders on Sir Tan. Do you remember he caught that, I think it was an overtime touchdown where he ran like that fake post and hit in a wide open, like Derek Carr, like remember, he threw it and was just like, your buddy, Derek Carr, I just like it that one. The, the, what was I going to say there? No, yeah, I, I think that one makes a ton of sense and obviously the Puka news will probably go a long way in determining what numbers we get for T-Ferg there. Um, let's see, let's do a coffee giveaway and then we'll get out of here. Maybe I will press you for one Thursday night football take, you know, just because it is Thursday. We didn't have as much fun stuff to talk about as we did last week with bills and lions here. You mentioned I am seeing nose A flowers for the second straight day at practice. Uh, so that stinks their, uh, swish sanders. Congratulations on winning the Vassaleros and Suns coffee email me at [email protected] and I will get you that promo code, but Reeves, any, any takes or an angle you like for tonight's game. Hey, it's going to mean, uh, you know, we're getting Michael Penex back to like, who would have thought like, right, like everything wrote and like getting Michael Penex back, like we're so excited to just have Michael Penex play, but that's how bad, uh, the run out with a Cooper rush has been these opening two weeks, Drake London died. Like I said, we kind of fell for like a false lead with B. John a week one, uh, but my Penex coming back, I think definitely improves the, the Tides Vass offense. I will, I'm still a little worried tonight because I've done studies on this before. Like when quarterbacks miss, like a long, like multi week absence, they do tend to underperform week one are, are their first game back. And this is a guy also that hasn't played live fire football since November of last year. So big picture, I'm excited to have him back. I'm a little trep, still a little bit of trepidation in this spot that like we're all going to get there. Like he's just going to bring these guys back to fully life. Right. Tonight. I think maybe next week, but, uh, the Packer side, I think has a lot of interesting angles. AJ Terrell was placed on IR, I think it's a huge Christian Watson spot tonight. Yeah. Yeah. He also like has a bunch of, uh, matchup notes on here, uh, the Atlanta is playing, uh, single high coverage of the six highest rate. This is something they did last year in her Jeff Alburg. So it's not just the two game sample like this goes back to last year. We can lean into this as an approach that they take fundamentally, uh, and Christian Watson has absolutely been crushing against those looks. So like him, Golden gets a bump as well, uh, with Jaden Reed, uh, you know, out of the line up because, you know, Skymore is just not a target earner. You can confirm that. I can confirm that from my own, uh, personal research. And you got to be a little bit worried, I'm, I'm into Tucker Crafsel for the potential, but, And that little floor like made a tongue sheet comment that was like he was like, we considered playing that offensive line. I was like, I don't like that. I don't like that, man. Don't we tell me stuff like that? I know. Because they lost the Zach Bokobowele for the season. He's by far their best lineman. Aaron Brooks also is coming to this game, game banged up. There you go. So if you had Christian Watson, I mean, his, we were looking at it with cups. There's a 20 yard difference between the Watson and golden number 69 and half to 49 and a half. So I did kind of like the golden discount there. I assume like longest reception type stuff, uh, basically maybe any which way with Watson, you like him. Yeah. I like all that stuff. Also, um, there's some unique bets too. If you made, a draft Kings does these. If you go check on if anyone's ever found these, but if you go to like receiving props, there is, uh, combination yards. And you can actually bet Christian Watson and Matthew golden together, like they're. Oh, that's cool. Yeah. I do this with running backs. Sometimes I do it with the Rams running backs a lot, uh, because, you know, they're, because it's hard to bet like an individual yard of props the way they split carries. But you can do combo yards them like, uh, you know, a hundred yards. And these, this is offered live during the game too. So you can do these live. Like it'll be Christian Watson plus Matthew golden. And the base will be set. I don't know what the lines are. I haven't looked at this one yet. But it'll be like a hundred one twenty five one fifty, so on. But then they, they changed those during the game. Like they update those live. It's not just a pregame bet. Yeah. So live, those become pretty interesting, uh, especially when you start chart to follow game scripts. Yeah. And no one has ever found those. Those are pretty fun. Because you don't have to get the individual guy right. Like it could be Watson carrying or, you know, not necessarily both guys have to go crazy. Yeah. That's a fun one. I will poke around their, uh, Reeves appreciate it. As always, sharp football analysis dot com. I have the link in the show notes. Go check out the worksheet. So much, uh, data, goodness there to sift through help you set your lineups, make those bets. Uh, I should mention here as we wrap up, you guys are going to be redirected over to the Badge Bros. They're going to be talking about Thursday night football. I believe they have some giveaways to do today as well. So make sure you guys are watching John and Nez. And then I'll be back tomorrow for the full DFS block. We'll have block party with jam to win. Holy the Sims with you to the solver show with Leonie. And of course, often on the clock with the Badge Bros. Enjoy the game tonight. The show will be here every Thursday. Been loving this macro Thursday block with cups with brick and Reeves. And we'll see you guys next time on the channel. Peace.