8/31/26: U.S. Resumes Iran Strikes, Top Generals Rebel, Trump To Steal Venezuela Oil, NBC Crew Attacked By Settlers

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But let's go ahead and turn then to the latest situation with Iran's put a one up here on the screen. Very in the middle of the day, yesterday, some news, pretty extraordinary news. The in earlier today, the United States forces struck two Iranian launchers on Laraq Island. Islamic Revolutionary Guard forces were observed preparing to launch rockets with sea mines into the straight of Hormuz. So let's put a one b on the screen just to show you how the US is twisting itself into knots. St. Com says Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed in a recent statement, strikes by US forces from the IRGC were, quote, "in act of aggression." This claim is absolutely false. US forces took limited precise action against the IRGC, mind-laying forces posing an imminent threat in the straight of Hormuz in essence Iran created the threat, and the US military eliminated it to protect civilian mariners, commercial shipping, and the free flow of global commerce. So it is not an act of aggression. It was an act of defense, actually. I'm sure if a foreign power struck on our territory, we would look at it exactly the same. Oh, this is not an act of the threat. This is fine. It's a limited precise operation. But to put it in perspective, these are the first US strikes in a number of days. It comes on the-- Thank you, Dave. It's been about a month. I saw the claim. It depends how you count it in terms of what qualifies as US backed or not. 30 days on the official announcement from SENTCOM, the additional part of it is that oil is back over $90. Barrel, it comes of last week Trump claimed that there were no more sea mines in the straight of Hormuz, however, clearly that claim was never verified, either by SENTCOM or by any other independent body that analyzes these types of things. And then finally, it does show at the end of the six-month mark, which officially happened on August 28th, that they are still right back to where they were in the very beginning, trying to get oil through, still bombing various radar installation targets or other sea mine laying business. And all of it comes down to the Battle of Hormuz, a problem which literally did not exist on the day of the war was launched itself, just to show its own humiliation and failure ritual. The fact that they felt enough pressure and unease the US did to go forward with these strikes, I think is also an indication that a lot of what they've been claiming that other streets is open. We're doing great. All this oil is getting through. No problem was not fully accurate. I would read into this. The Iranians did respond. Now, it appears to me that they've responded in quite a limited way. They fired missiles towards Jordan, for sure. There's some debate. UAE is claiming that they didn't target another of our bases in the UAE, just south of Dubai. Iran is claiming that they did target them. Separately, UAE is claiming that they intercepted an Iranian drone near their territory. So in any case, it looks like Iran targeted both Jordan and the UAE. In terms of Jordan, the US is saying, oh, we intercepted all of their missiles. However, ABC News does have a report claiming that some missiles did find their targets. Regardless, whether whichever is the case, we certainly expended a lot of those precious missile interceptors, which of course we have been talking about the way that that stockpile has already been dwindling. So in any case, I think as best we can read into this situation, Sagar, it appears that both the US and Iran tried to keep this to be a limited engagement. Now, what that means on both sides is really, I think, quite a further debate. Put a three on the screen while I'm talking so people can see exactly how many of the interceptors were fired. You can actually see right there some of the Iranian missiles that were coming in some of the Patriot missiles as well that were sent to intercept them. Remember, our missile's costing $4 million a piece. You're also right, and I parsed some of the language. The language was, quote, nearly all of the missiles were intercepted, which obviously they knew, quote, nearly all of them would be intercepted. But that's why it only takes one in order to do a decent amount of damage. And that's exactly what's happened. Let's put A2 also from the IRGC just to try and parse it. So look, it's very belicose. They say the action was strategic fatal mistake by the Trump administration, a mistake that will shift the balance against its artifacts and have significant consequences. The enemy will pay the consequences of this flawed calculation, both economic and military spheres. But right now, I mean, to be honest, they do seem pretty locked in to this kind of weight tit for tat strategy. I don't really understand it because I don't think it's really working to their benefit. We're going to talk to Rory in a few minutes. But by his independent analysis, there is more oil moving through the straightforward moves. And it's not a lot. It's not 20 million barrels, 25 million per day, which is what it used to be. It's 10 million, which is enough to float the Gulf countries. It's enough to give some of the money or some claim of legitimacy to the US operations, the multiple billions of dollars. And they're slowly starting to lose their grip where they kept it dramatically down in the very beginning. things of the war. At the same time, we know, at least for certain, there's no oil getting, or there's no money coming into Iran, like there's not even remotely. And we've seen lines, this is the independent analysis from the financial times and others, on the ground in Tehran, saying, look, gas lines are starting to, you know, to be seen all over the city, fuel rationing, hyperinflation. These are not, I'm not saying that they're close to crumbling whatsoever, but I'm saying the effect is beginning to be seen. So how much longer are they going to sit there and take that? Their own internal strategy at this point, it doesn't make a lot of sense. It seems to make sense for them to escalate the war dramatically. Although they may be waiting another month or two, they could be stockpiling as of right now and hope to launch some sort of October midterm surprise to try and kill Republican chances in the midterms. That's very possible as well. >> Yeah. Well, let me, to that point, let me read a little bit of Tree Departee's analysis, both regards to this recent round of strikes and more broadly, his view of the war, this is A3C. He says the most likely scenario is neither immediate escalation or a post midterm return to talks. Rather, in the scenario, the Trump's administration's newfound confidence proves warranted the combination of new sanctions and growing traffic through the southern quarter of the street is created in new reality in which Iran is hurting more than the U.S. and its trajectories becoming increasingly but not dramatically negative. Iran will therefore be weaker in a few months and in a less favorable diplomatic and military position. While this will incentivize Iran to counter escalate, Tehran may choose to delay its response and wait for a more opportune moment. If Washington wants to keep things quiet until the midterms, Tehran may conclude that the optimal moment to strike back is two or three weeks before the congressional elections, maximizing the political damage to Trump he goes on to say Iran may not limit its response to tankers in the street, Iranian officials say both publicly and privately, they expect the U.S. and Israel to resume the war after the midterms, regardless of the impact of the D-Day sanctions, regional diplomats have largely reached the same conclusion if sanctions we can run over time while the global economy recovers and adjusts a prolonged possible work against Tehran, Iran may therefore decide to escalate dramatically, taking full advantage of Trump's perceived vulnerability in the run-up to the election. So that is one possible explanation for why they're keeping things limited now, why they're sort of just taking the economic pain right now, even though, yes, over time, it will cause more pain to them. Yes, over time, the U.S. has been able to get more and more oil and eat away at their control over the street of Hormuz. They may be waiting for a particular moment shortly before the midterms to strike in order to maximize that political damage, that's what treated things and that's what a lot of others think of. It would absolutely make sense, especially when you're fighting an asymmetric conflict. It didn't catch the latest role in the Martin unfiltered podcast. And the argument is, do you want to win? If you don't win, you have no power. It's real. Those are the very people who I always say vote against their own economic interests and they complained about the very thing they were seeing. It's wrong. The issue of transgender athletes was not going well with a lot of black men. Roland Martin unfiltered. I went off. I said, this is exactly what I'm talking about. Y'all go scream at Chanel, but you don't want to see a black luxury company in the same van. You don't wait until 2030, you better be hitting the ground, going to heart in the south now. And download Roland Martin unfiltered on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast. Wherever you get your podcasts, college football will hijack your weekend, ruin your sleep and break your heart. And that's why we make the solid verbal college football show. I'm Ty Hildenbrand. He's Dan Rubenstein. How's it going? We preview the games that matter, sort through the biggest storylines, and tell you what to watch before kickoff. There's a lot to keep track of. Who's for real? Which upset is hiding in plain sight? And which storyline is about to take over your group chat? And when the games are over, join us in the aftermath too. We're going to react to what happened, talk about the biggest results. Of course, we'll cover the playoff picture and all the little details you might have missed while flipping between like 12 games at once. Whether you know every coach and coordinator or just want to understand why everybody is yelling, we're here to help make sense of the madness. Listen to the solid verbal college football show on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey there, everybody. Amy Robock and TJ Holmes here from the Amy and TJ podcast with midterm elections just around the corner, we're breaking down the biggest political stories leading up to November. And some of those big political stories aren't just what's happening on Capitol Hill. Yes, we just saw Lindsey Graham, the death of a long time senator. Also, we've got a couple of missing members of Congress. Also, we got a lot of members of Congress behaving badly, we got accusations, allegations flying all day long on Capitol Hill, it's just like a reality show. We're going to cover everything you need to know during this heated political season. And it starts with our morning run. Yes. Go for a run with us. Maybe you can take us along when you're on your actual run outside or if you don't feel like going out still, you get what we're saying. It's our morning run. It's our daily news rundown of the top stories of a get you going before you even finish that first cup of coffee. Listen to Amy and TJ on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your podcasts. Meanwhile they also have the military problem, the United States does on its side. Let's put a four and let's move on to this part because it's absolutely shocking and up on the screen. Military leaders are warning Pete Hegseth against extending Iran war operations. So basically it's kind of a complicated bureaucratic process, but the basics of it are that several military leaders have formally advised Pete Hegseth that prolonged large scale operations against Iran are unsustainable and risk-weating their ability to confront threats elsewhere. Basically, the way that it works is that there is a Secretary of Defense orders book. And in August 14th, the addition of the orders book, which were the details that were able to be leaked here to the Washington Post, it's produced twice monthly, it gives the worldwide availability of US warships, aircraft personnel, and weapons. This was a highly classified document obviously because it keeps the actual ledger of where things are and where they're being used for. It reflects then the Secretary and the President's priorities for force. Inside of that orders book, there was an idea that many of the forces currently deployed to the Middle East, some 50,000 Americans that are currently engaged in operations against Iran or supporting them, would be extended sometime into 2027. The leaders of US European Command, Pacific Command, and Southern Command, along with the Navy's top admiral, responded with what is characterized as a "non-concur," meaning that they disagree with the Secretary's order to extend their forces, but will execute it nevertheless. This is actually quite extraordinary. So non-concur's are painted by the Pentagon as routine that is absolutely not true, but they're also for it to be leaked immediately within two weeks so that they are trying to sound the alarm. Really though, I don't want to cover anybody in too much heroism. The truth is, this is the ultimate historical cover you're asked. As in, when the history book is written and the archives all get open, you can say, "Oh, well, the admiral said not to do it," and this so-and-so said not to do it, they are trying to put on paper for the future. European Command is not stupid. They can see, while you regard me cover that story about Putin, obviously we cover the tactical nuke situation, how he's salivating, he's like, "Oh, no interceptors, huh? A lot of interesting things can start happening, let's say, in the city of Laviv and all of these other outposts right on the edge of NATO. Pacific Command, they've been sounding the alarm ever since we stripped the fads out of Korea. They were screwed going into the swore, who let alone coming out of it and that you. So Southern Command as well, responsible for Latin America and for Venezuel operations, they see Trump announce a Pentagon deal to try and steal Venezuelan oil and he's like, well, he's like, could go bad in the future, stealing Latin American oil, always works out definitely very well in the long run and definitely doesn't invite any blowback or other potential consequences in the region. So all of them can read the news and they know exactly how many weapons they have at their disposal versus what's being used in Iran and they say, "Hey, I think this is a really, really bad idea." But nonetheless, not just to put it on paper, but then to obviously strategically leak it and try and send the alarm, I have never seen this amount of coordinated response from the Pentagon to try to keep America out of war. It's always the opposite. Yeah. My whole lifetime has been the opposite. That's so true. It tells you exactly how bad things are. Usually they leak to try to corner a president in military action so that, oh, you're going to look weak now because the military is saying we need to do X and Y and Z. To have them coming out and being like, we can't do this anymore. This is really bad. And the way they characterize it, someone who was familiar with the assessment said that the overall characterization was that it has been too much for too long, too much for too long. Now that we're over the six-month mark here with regard to Iran, and I have to go back to just the action from last night. I mean, we burned through over a hundred very likely patriot interceptors in this little Hey, let's strike this island. take out these launchers that we're going to put drones inside of the strait. We burn a significant portion of our remaining Patriot missile interceptor stockpile. And this was just for a very limited engagement. If we go back to war, how is this going to work out? It makes no logical sense. I mean, they are going to be able to hit their targets more and more and more often. And in fact, some of the speculation is that once again, Iran with this limited engagement yesterday was using up some of their older missiles to try to once again burn through our stockpile so that we are more vulnerable when and if we do go back to more significant hostilities. So it is dramatic for what it says. It also is dramatic for, you know, the fact this is a stunning leak. And I think the White House reaction to it also talkers says a lot about how upset they are that any of this information got out there. And you know, they feel that it really undercuts their position visa via the war. Obviously, it should. Let's put a five on the screen, Sean Parnell, the Chief Spokesperson over at the Pentagon. You guys are going to love this one. Publishing highly classified assessments from the Secretary's Order book is a crime. Wrong, not true. It is a betrayal of the force. And much of what they are publishing is inaccurate. Okay, prove it. He says, of course, we demand candid military advice. Non-concurse our standard, not true whatsoever. The Secretary sees them constantly. Maybe this is how it does. That's how it does. Maybe this one. That's how you run a real military. We are in great shape around the world. The story isn't about readiness. It's TDS and PDS. What is PDS? Pete Hegseth, derangement. Okay. They hate President Trump and Secretary Hegseth more than they love America. Oh, my God. Okay. So the non-concurse are standard. So actually, you just confirmed the entire story. Thank you, Mr. Parnell. By the way, who are some of the esteemed colleagues of Mr. Parnell? I covered some of this previously with a data Republican who was otherwise known as Jessica Pounds. She publishes his unhinged, unreadable screens on Twitter. It seems that many of her brethren on the social media platform, known as X, have also been hired secretly by the Pentagon. Let's put their response up here on the screen. Both of them went after the reporters, Tera Cop and Dan Lamont, long-time Pentagon correspondence. They were veterans whenever I began my career, just to give you an example. List of Mr. Lamont, she says, that her Republican for general's analysis is not the important point here. Actually, it is. The article says the information came from August 14th Order Book, as the article explains is classified and lays out worldwide availability. This is one of the most serious leaks I have ever seen. You are using this to score partisan points against Hegseth. You and your mill Twitter journalist Spears spent a whole week hammering a doge-affiliated analyst for refusing the leak-sensitive documents, accusing her of violating ethics she's speaking about herself. She did in fact do that, by the way, because she's such an idiot. She didn't realize she was being handed a scoop, literally, on a silver platter. Another one of these gentlemen, I guess, is an infantry dork. He says, another day, another piece undermining our countrymen in hopes they are killed so you can get another headline. That's what he says in terms of just publishing, again, information, which I can virtually guarantee you came from the highest levels of the Pentagon. Mill Twitter or Millennial. No, Mill Twitter is military. Yeah, just don't go down that sort of, trust me, you want nothing to do with it. The biggest dorks you'll ever find in your entire life, myself included. Let's go to A7 then and it turns out, as we found out with Miss Pounds, that many of these people who I just showed you are actually being paid or were at some point paid or at the very least were special government employees by the Pentagon. And so it turns out that Pete Hexeth has scoured the internet for either anonymous or in some cases, I'll be fair people who post under their own name and gave them a Pentagon-affiliated email and role inside of his building, which none of these people disclosed, absolutely shocking including Kurt Schlichter, Rob Manis, you have a few other Thomas Anderson, otherwise known as cynical Publius for those who are not familiar. You have data Republican, otherwise known as Jessica Pounds, and you also have Infantry Dork, who I don't have his name here right in front of me, but I believe is actually an active duty military officer inside of the Pentagon. And so these people are either active duty or special government employees. That's why I said earlier, some may have been paid, some, you don't technically have to be paid if you're at SGE, but they did receive government emails. I mean, look, that's fine, you could do whatever you want, but you know, you should probably disclose it. If you're going to be out there talking about webs of deep states and going after, I put up Jessica Pounds's previous attack on journalists or they're for lack, not disclosing their funding. It's like you literally work for the federal government, and you don't tell anybody. Works for the Pentagon and compiled some database of people who are DSA affiliated, so you could track, yes, so you could track what Americans are affiliated with DSA. I mean, this is deeply just, I mean, it's really one of those things. You can't even imagine happening in other administrations. We're using tax money to pay secret paid skills like this bot army inside of the Pentagon to pump up the secretary of defense. It is so incredibly wild. And you know, some of these people, what's this, a Kurt Schlichter or whatever, continued to write for town hall. None of them disclosed any of this was going on. The Jessica Pounds lady, she was one of those, remember when they kicked down all of the real journalists at the Pentagon and you have to sign this loyalty pledge basically that you're not going to do anything they don't want you to do, which is not what journalism is. Anyway, she's one of the ones that's like, yes, me, I sign up for that. And the next thing you know, they're like, great, we're going to actually hire you and put you on the payroll to do this as your job. And none of this is made public, completely, completely insane. It also shows you their minds that like they're so Twitter-brained that they think that the whole war of public opinion is happening on these online spaces and on Twitter in particular. So anyone that had like a decent following that was, you know, in or adjacent to a military sphere that they thought could chill for them in anything approaching an effective manner, they're like, all right, come on board, we'll get you actually in-house. We will make you a government, special government employee or expert and let you do this as your whole thing. Absolutely. And by the way, just to prevent any of them coming, so you said payroll, we should try to use this as an expression because many have denied that they're actually being paid. But if you have a government email, if you have a government email as an SGE, whether you're getting paid or not, you work for the federal government. Like Jared Pusher, he doesn't work for the government. He works for the government. Yes. Elon, he didn't work for the government. He worked for the government. We can understand that. Clearly being rewarded with back best and scoops, just like this Johnast Jessica Pounds who couldn't even recognize what was being handed to her and had her whole little meltdown. But that is part of the payment, of the reward, is you get access and you get to be on the inside and you get to know things that the public doesn't know and that increases your profile, your social media cloud, et cetera. Exactly. All right, so we have a Rory standing by, let's get to it. It's real. Those are the very people who I always say voted against their own economic interests and they complained about the very thing they were seeing. It's raw. I knew that the issue of transgender athletes was not going well with a lot of black men. I went off. Y'all go scream at Chanel, but you don't want to see a black luxury company in the same back. I'm Ty Hildenbrand. He's dammed. I'm Ty Hildenbrand. This is what I'm talking about. I don't want to see a black luxury company, but I don't want to see a black luxury company. I want to see a black luxury company. Rubenstein. How's it going? Every week, we preview the games that matter, sort through the biggest storylines, and tell you what to watch before kick-off. Who's for real? And when the games are over, join us in the aftermath, too. Listen to the Solid Verbal College football show on the iHeart Radio App, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Yes, we just saw Lindsey Graham, the death. But long time Senator also we've got a couple of missing members of Congress also we got a lot of members of Congress behaving badly We got accusations allegations flying all day long on Capitol Hill. It's just like a reality show We're gonna cover everything you need to know during this heated political season and it starts with our morning run Yes, go for a run with us. Maybe you can take us along when you're on your actual run outside Or if you don't feel like going out still you get what we're saying. It's our daily news rundown Up the top stories that'll get you going before you even finish that first cup of coffee listen to avian tj on the iHeart radio app apple podcast or wherever you listen to your podcast All right joining us now is to break down all of the things all of the many things happening in the oil market here abroad Venezuela, Iran, etc is Rory Johnson. He is an oil market researcher and founder of commodity context.com great to see you Rory good to see you man. Thanks for having me back. All right, so let's start off with what exactly is happening in the straight-of-formers We can go ahead and put this up on the screen. There's a dispute between tanker trackers Which is saying that over the past seven full days crude oil export sports Departing the US Navy blockade line average 6.7 million barrels per day There's a dispute between them between a goldman analysis and also between what the president and the US administration are claiming in terms of barrels coming out of the straight-of-formers. What is your best understanding of what is happening here? So my numbers are very similar to tanker trackers and they're very very good at what they do They're very very manual. They both use AIS, which is the you know satellite derived signals that we see on maps That we've all become very used to over this crisis and supplementing that with a lot of kind of idiosyncratic and Satellite imagery to kind of fill in the gaps of which there are many right now I think the important thing to stress here is that there is you know There is a considerable amount of volume going through the straight I think that's the first thing I think you know the debate has basically become is the straight open or closed and it is very much both I also see somewhere between six and seven million barrels a day of oil regularly exiting the straight Which is about a third of where it stood pre-war but mixed with some of these offsets is probably around let's say Half of pre-war levels total coming into the Middle East that is substantially higher than it was even a couple months ago But is still obviously nowhere near enough to actually solve The crisis face in the oil market and on this basis if this persists, let's say you know You know shambles on for another couple months like this We're just going to keep leaching out global inventories because it just simply is enough oil and oil markets are going to continue to tighten Yeah, so Rory one of the things that I've been fascinated by is the White House has basically just tried to do A mission accomplished on the straight. Let's put a 10 up here on the screen actually they quite literally did mission accomplished But in this case, this was a kind of an infamous story if you ask me I'm curious for your reaction baroque repeat and Axios reporting quote that sucker is open US gains the upper hand in the battle for horror moves I mean various levels have been reported by the military in some cases You know, they're saying 10 million barrels per day They often give out numbers which average potentially even higher than that What do you make of of many of these claims at that highest level to many of these reporters quote that sucker is open? Yeah, so let's go through the numbers and I think it's important to understand why there is disagreement in the first place Normally in normal times and there's not a war in the state of horror moves is totally open Virtually all shipping with like with the exception may be some dark, you know, Iranian transits are Transiting in the open, you know, broadcast in their ass. We can count them very easily We've got a lot of good indicators when it when you know in the current environment when everyone has their ass off This is what we're telling, you know, transiting dark Typically you can't confirm the trends that has occurred until after that ship re you know, you know turns its ass back on Typically, you know further into the Arabian sea or towards Asia and that's when you can kind of figure out Okay, if it's there now and you kind of back cast where it was going to be that is essentially what's happening And I think they're getting there, you know, the numbers we're getting from the White House are indicative, but not helpful And I think in classic White House forum they're picking weird fights that I think are damaging their credibility and what could have been if they had just said Six or seven million barrels a day getting out way more than before still not enough, but we're war-making progress Myself and other analysts were like, yep, you know, that's roughly correct It is likely true that horror moves, you know that Iran is beginning to lose some control of the share of the Hormuz And the US position militarily is improving on this logistical point But instead they said 9 million then 10 million just high enough to make tanker trackers and other analysts like myself say like Okay, this is probably exaggeration. It's probably true And they got lost in the debate instead of actually celebrating the progress of the US military and the U.S. Navy has Actually legitimately made which is impressive given the current content Not it. Lastly on this topic worry, so we've been covering these new strikes back and forth between Iran and the U.S. Very noteworthy to me that the U.S. decided to strike lorak island They said that Iran was preparing to launch new drones in the strait of Hormuz What do you make of that in the context of the oil markets and the reality of what's going on in the strait of Hormuz? I think one of the interesting questions in the debate that's currently happening is essentially is Iran letting this Seven-ish million barrels a day of oil trends in the strait of Hormuz or are they being prevented from stopping it? And what the U.S. Navy or U.S. military is claiming sent comm is saying that basically they've destroyed rocket launchers missile launchers drone launchers and radar all the things that would have been used to threaten this shipping in the first place Under that interpretation, Iran basically can't do much more than it is currently doing which supports this argument That Iran is losing control of the strait. We'll see whether or not they can continue Whether or not that remains the status quo, but right now it does look like Whether or not a drone likes it or not or get the U.S. Navy is getting seven-ish million barrels a day through Which is enough to keep oil markets from kind of erupting violently Even if it's still not enough to actually close the gap and realign supply and demand But I do think that if this continues, this is eroding Iran's kind of time-dependent weapon here That for a long time I and many other analysts believe that time was on a wrong side. I still think in a longer term sense That's true, but it might be too long now and and I think that Iran if this continues is going to need to attempt To rescare traffic and and come over for shipping through the strait in order to get those numbers back down But now it's essentially a tug of war between those two points. Yeah, that's the that's the general analysis of almost every Strategist that I've seen on this is that they have to try and reassert some control especially as they continue To be squeezed so we originally also wanted to talk to you about Venezuela Let's put B1 up here on the screen details of this are genuinely crazy They say inside Trump's plan to give the Pentagon a stake in Venezuela's oil riches the deal caps Secret of months of secret of negotiations which gives the right U.S. rights to some of the world's largest proven oil reserves And it appears this involves the United States government taking a stake in these companies sketchy aligned businessmen who are there on the ground They're claiming huge a proven reserves and billions of dollars being invested. What do we know about this Rory? And how real actually is any of it? It's still really really hard to tell first of all All of this is going to be caveat by this is obviously as you noted very crazy And I think at this stage all we really know for sure is what we're being told by the White House and by the Delsea administration in Caracas So everything I'm going to say take with a massive dollop of salt But first on this reserve point So the the numbers that we're hearing in this deal is that the fields and question that had these rights have been given to have a combined proven oil reserve or associated as the president as the Venezuelan president said oil reserves of 65 billion barrels That is a huge amount of oil and larger than the United States total proven national oil reserves This is the actual total amount of economically and technologically accessible oil in the ground That said that number or you know a Venezuelan has always claimed and they'd enormous 300 plus billion barrels Putting at the very very top of the global leaderboard of these proven reserves Yet despite this massive stockpile or or geologic bounty They've never really it or recently have not managed to produce much more than a million barrels today They need much more capital much more precise. This is where the United States comes in But they've never been able to produce anywhere near the level that those reserves would indicate So the important thing is not the reserve base even though that's the the big number that Trump's going to talk about The importance is how can they actually get these fields into introducing order again Now this is where you know the the deal we've seen so far Imagine something like a hundred billion dollars of investment poured into these fields Yes, if that actually happened that would not they would make a huge difference And would dramatically increase production And that is where the Venezuelan government could see this you know 200 plus billion dollars of additional tax revenue coming in But this is still extraordinarily early days and I honestly fear for the White House here Like let's let's steal man their position at the beginning That I actually think while the legality was let's just say Charitably extraordinarily tenuous of the removal of Nicholas Maduro earlier this year I think history would have been relatively kind in hindsight to it I think no one was a fan of Maduro and the trajectory of Venezuela was improved after his departure But I think re-injecting this very clearly like neo-colonial language around Washington seizing resources And they extraordinarily you know resource nationalist economy in Latin America Just is the ultimate thing like like the thing that we just so easily spoil What could have otherwise been a promising trajectory Yeah well and to your point if we put B2 up on the screen unsurprisingly you have basically every side of the political debate in Venezuelan politics being like, I'm sorry, what? What are we doing with the US? And it also appears to even violate the Venezuelan constitution, which demands Venezuelan sovereignty and national possession of their own reserves. So not popular thus far in terms of the reaction from Venezuela. But I also wanted to ask you, Rory, you had a bunch of big oil companies that the Trump administration wanted to come in and do this investment themselves. This weird, you know, we're going to take a stake and do this deal with the sketchy businessman thing only came about because all of the big oil and gas companies said we're taking a pass. We don't want to do this. We don't think that this will ultimately work out to be profitable for us. So why would we think it's going to go better for the US government than it would for like, Exxon mobile? An excellent question. I do think to be charitable here. There has been progress. Chevron, which has been the country for, you know, this entire time, has announced additional investment. It did look, we were starting to produce more in Venezuela. There was a beginning of a term. But I would argue that, you know, apparently it wasn't going nearly fast enough to validate the White House's narrative around a Venezuelan turn out of the industry. And that's where I think this comes from. Again, I think that if left alone, I actually think it would have gradually improved and we would have seen over the next five, 10 years, a real turn. But this kind of impatient, abnormal injection of politics and policy and, again, imperialism into this discussion is just the fastest way to start scaring off anyone else. I think there's going to be very, like, many, many questions after Trump leaves office about what was exactly agreed to by whom, who got what kickbacks, et cetera. I have no doubt this is going to be tied up in hearings for years to come. And I think any country that any company that wants to get involved in Venezuela is going to want to steer clear of this kind of complication. They think they've got enough going on. So the other question here was about strategic petroleum reserve. We can put B4 up here on the screen. Again, this is just why it's useful to speak to an expert on this. Trump obviously see some political danger. A lot of people have heard about the strategic petroleum reserve. Trump says, of one of the things I'm going to do with the Venezuelan oil is fill up the strategic national reserves, which because of sleepy Joe Biden had been virtually emptied, the topping out process will begin very shortly and as a gift from Venezuela to the people of the United States. So, well, first of all, where does the reserve actually stand? Should we be worried about it? Is there even enough here to top up the petroleum reserve? Like, you know, fact check the various levels of what's going on. Okay, so I think this is where the word reserve is important because, again, in the initial tweets, Trump talked about doubling the US reserves. That makes it sound like it's the actual proven reserves. The amount of oil essentially the United States can claim as its own. This is talking about the strategic petroleum reserve, which is a different pool of produced oil, not oil that hasn't been produced. This is produced oil that was pumped out of the ground and then repumped into salt caverns owned by the US federal government. This was a policy response coming out of the energy shocks in the 1970s and its peak and its maximum capacity can hold more than 700 million barrels following to Trump's point, the release of oil in the 2022 post, you know, a Russian invasion event of Ukraine crisis. And now Trump's release has brought that reserve below 300 million barrels. No doubt the reserve needs topping up. The challenge here is essentially that virtually all of the oil, all of the oil in the reserve is other light or medium crude. There is no really heavy sour crude in the caverns of the type that Venezuela is. Like, the same reason I'm in Canada, lots of people talking about filling up the SPR with Canadian dill bit or diluted bitumen, very similar grade to what Venezuela exports. The challenge is that everyone I've talked to, the engineer, is basically say that is not suitable for cavern injection because of the fact that it's diluted. And essentially that combined liquid, that oil, that basically lighter oil and heavy oil will separate in the caverns and make it difficult to work with. That's not to say that it can't in a future ever be used, but in the current configuration of the caverns, you would need to reestablish Venezuela's operators, which is essentially partial refineries. That could maybe get you there, but that's all really going to require tens of billions of dollars of repair. And it doesn't look like that's happening anytime soon. So I would say I do not expect Venezuela and heavy oil to enter the US SPR anytime soon. Gotcha. So put it all together, Rory, both what we talked about with regard to the straight-off hormones and this new Venezuela announcement. What do you think the near-term prospects for the oil markets look like going forward? But I would say based on this news, and I agree that it sounds very flashy. I would say it changes literally nothing for this year. I think that January, the removal of Nicolas Maduro, the removal of sanctions, that whole episode, that was a big change. This is essentially chapter two of that, and nothing is really changing materially with the plot. It's essentially changing some of the main characters, some of the tone, but the story is still that you're going to require tens of billions of dollars and five to ten years in order to actually see real-term rounds at this stage, whether the US government owns a piece of that as odd as it could be is not going to change that materially. Gotcha. Last thing for you, Rory, is just general about the bigger geopolitical situation. It seemed my analysis based on all of your guys' reading was the big x-factor for why things didn't go totally crazy over the last six months, was Chinese imports falling to a level which we all didn't think was possible. Have we seen movement in the Chinese market or any interest in or any change in Beijing's thinking? How long can they keep their level of imports where they are? And if they do dial them up, what will prices begin to look like? Yeah, so you're absolutely right. That is the piece that I certainly did not expect for context. China's crude oil imports fell by roughly five or more than five million barrels a day, 40 to 45 percent of its total three-word crude oil import volumes, massive massive swing. That bottomed in June, we saw a bump back up, essentially capturing some of that massive exit flow of formulas following the signing of the Islamabad, MOU between US and Iran. They've fallen back down, but not quite as low as they got in June. Say if before was a 5.5 million barrel a day cut of imports, now there may be at say four, three and a half to four. Most of that incremental, you know, use of crude is actually going into re-exports of refined products. China had banned or at least extremely restricted the exports of refined products. A huge issue given that right now, well crude markets are tight, refined markets, particularly for diesel are much, much, much tighter. China is slowly easing back into that. And what we hope to see is that they jack up those exports from say a million barrels a day of products right now, up to two million barrels a day of products, which is what we saw when they leapt into help, you know, satisfy some of that deficit in the market in 2022 and 2023. That I think is the next upside, but yes, that would ease diesel prices and cracks spreads, but at the cost of tightening oil. So it's really the whole thing is still kind of a problem. Gotcha. Next time. All right, Rory, thank you so much. We always appreciate your insight, really invaluable. Thanks for having this morning, guys. Didn't catch the latest role in the Martin Unfiltered podcast. It's real. It's wrong. I went off. Y'all go scream at Chanel, but you don't want to see a black luxury company in the same bag. Catch Roland Martin's daily commentary on the black information network, 12 seats, those are moving south. So if you Democrats, you don't wait to 23, you better be hitting the ground, going to heart in the south now. And download Roland Martin Unfiltered on the iHot Radio app, Apple Podcast, wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Ty Hildenbrand. He's Dan Rubenstein. How's it going? Every week we preview the games that matter sort through the biggest storylines and tell you what to watch before kickoff. Who's for real? Which upset is hiding in plain sight and which storyline is about to take over your group chat? Of course we'll cover the playoff picture and all the little details you might have missed while flipping between like 12 games at once. Listen to the solid verbal college football show on the iHot Radio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey there everybody, Amy Robock and TJ Holmes here from the Amy and TJ podcast with mid to elections just around the corner. We're breaking down the biggest political stories leading up to November and some of those big political stories aren't just what's happening on Capitol Hill. Yes, we just saw Lindsey Graham the death of a long time senator. Also we've got a couple of missing members of Congress. Also we got a lot of members of Congress behaving badly. We got accusations, allegations flying all day long on Capitol Hill. It's just like a reality show. We're gonna cover everything you need to know during this heated political season and it starts with our morning run Yes, go for a run with us. It's our morning run It's our daily news rundown of the top stories of a get you going before you even finish that first cup of coffee Listen to Amy and TJ on the iHeart radio app Apple podcasts or wherever you listen to your podcasts Shocking news on of the West Bank where an NBC news crew and a Palestinian women were beaten by illegal Israeli settlers Let's take a look at the NBC news report on what happened We were interviewing a Palestinian woman yesterday named Aida Ahmed Abdelah her home in the West Bank now occupied by Israeli settlers She says she dies a hundred times a day watching the scene as Aida took us closer to her home Masked young men in a gray car with Israeli license plates armed with sticks and stones rushed on the scene They smashed our car windshield hit our crew with clubs and beat Aida unconscious. Are you okay? I said like we were able to get her to an ambulance and our team was treated for minor injuries The attack comes amidst surge of settler violence across the West Bank in recent weeks So far this year 76 Palestinians have been killed by settlers according to the United Nations among them 18 children Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been accused of turning a blind eye to the violence released a statement yesterday Accusing the settlers of breaking the law and damaging Israel's standing in the world Just horrifying images there that Palestinian woman beaten unconscious all for the crime of just trying to access her own home Because this involves American journalist you had some perfunctory, right? It's a big story criticism from the Netanyahu government, but analysts who you know are experienced with this and how this all works I this wouldn't happen if you do not have the consent of the Israeli government Oftentimes these settlers work not just with the IDF sort of turning a blind eye But actively in conjunction with the IDF You've had some of the areas where settlers have been attacking and besieging towns in the West Bank You've had a special military zone declared and then it only applies to the Palestinians They're the only ones whose restrictions are movement are restricted and the settlers are still allowed to menace and Rome at you know at will so Just the latest example of absolute horror there as they point out in the story Saga You've had 76 Palestinians who are murdered by these people just this year and then you they expect us to believe that oh This is just some one off. This is just some rogue evil doers some bad apples, but this isn't representative of Israeli society when obviously it is It's representative of Israeli society and government policy Well, let's put the story on the screen and see three because you can actually see this in some of the actual statements that we're giving So for example from Netanyahu They say the criminal acts of violence committed by a handful of rioters who violate the law Cause enormous injustice to the law of binding settler public and hinder the IDF in fulfilling its mission in harm Israel standing in the world I love how it has nothing to do with and by the way Palestinians are getting murdered It's all oh we're worried about the the good standing and credibility of the settler community Well, what's crazy too is they say that they haven't even really said beyond this perfunctory Statement that they will apprehend the perpetrators and bring them to justice They will not tolerate vigilantism by any kind of any by anyone But it's just obviously not true because there have been riots up and down the entire West Bank now for over a year There have been a number of American citizens who have been targeted and have been beaten We interviewed one of those gentlemen who's literally had to fly back just I mean he's basically camping out in his house being like come and take it I guess Because and he's a US citizen the only reason he has even a modicum of protection even that may not be enough to actually save his life I think what it always leaps out to me about these is the same perfunctory Especially like from the United States side people being like I support Israel, but these settlers are out of control Look, it's part of their government policy at this point and from what I can tell the vast majority of their population just supports it I mean being honest in terms of I mean if our government was doing something like this Just no way that people will be sitting back at least in my opinion that people will be sitting back and be like Oh, yeah, this is totally normal and is okay You know in terms of tax dollars and more and in this case actually literally is our tax dollars even going to these freaks So it it really leaps out Well, the other thing I think we have to highlight here is how Netanyahu speaks in Hebrew There was a more recent debate where he was bragging about how great he was inside of Israel and speaking in Hebrew So guys, let's go and put C6 on the screen. I'll read from some of the subtitles This is from Netanyahu again speaking in Hebrew and one of the things here he's talking about Iran He says it took me a long time to get our security establishment to deal with Iran itself It was also a long time to bring the United States to this understanding I was able to do that because I had close to a thousand hours on American television Another thing that he says in Hebrew again is he talks about Lebanon He talks about Gaza. He talks about Syria. Let me read you this direct quote If my opponents win, they will leave Lebanon. They will leave Gaza. They will leave Syria They will establish a Palestinian state. It won't just be a Palestinian state It will be a Palestinian state backed by major powers. That will be the end of Israel. We will go into free fall So bragging about his permanent occupation of Syria of Gaza of Lebanon, right? Does anybody dispute the borders of Lebanon outside of Israel? No one Same with Syria, even the US government doesn't say, oh, actually, based on our reading of Balfour Declaration Lebanon belongs entirely to the state of Israel But this is what the guy says. Yeah, out loud. Yeah, no, that's absolutely right I love Ryan's point on this that we're always asked whether Israel is a right to exist as a state And it's like Israel doesn't even act like a state State is supposed to have fixed borders true and laws that apply equally across the territory They have neither of those things. So do they even consider themselves a state because they don't act like that They act like some rogue terror regime and menacing all of their neighbors and good portion of Close to a majority of their citizens Let me just put this up on the screen for a C4. This is from our former US ambassador Just to see the incredible level of propaganda that they is truly unbelievable that they continue to try to push again This was a US government official here. He says here's the other side of the settler violence Which he puts in quotes headlines from yesterday the Jews seem to have been attacked on Shabbat So the Palestinians could get ahead of the media when the Jews push back the camera start to roll If you think this was not encouraged and even caused by the 45 Democratic Senators publicly condemning settler violence You don't understand the Middle East again political vacuums generally are not filled well time for one Jewish state So he's blaming the Democratic Senators who you know put out some Perfunture statement condemning settler violence for the Now 76 Palestinians who have been murdered Completely insane and there's actually a lot of Documentation that what happens is after religious services These illegal settlers will then go out and take advantage of the fact that you are likely to have a lower police Military response on those days to go out and menace So that is why a lot of the attacks to begin on the the Jewish holy day because it's not because the Palestinians are starting to fight It's because that is the opportune time that the settlers have found to go out and begin their pogroms and their campaigns of terror We did want to bring you some positive news here on the US front in terms of the administration's authoritarian Free count over quote-unquote anti-Semitism. There's been a major court win In the fight for free speech and against those trumped-up charges of anti-Semitism Let's go ahead and put this up on the screen This was front thanks to our friends over at fire federal court rolls that the statutes the Trump administration used in its speech-based deportation scheme are unconstitutional So you will remember in some of the most prominent instances Makhmoud Khalil Ramiza Oz Turk Moshe Mandawi in particular that the administration was arguing that they could deport them simply because They had said things in Ramiza Oz Turks case written in op ed that they found to be detrimental to national security Completely, you know, wild unprecedented in terms of the use of power So this court found that no Even if you are not a citizen if you're in the US you have a first amendment right and you cannot be deported Just because you say something that the US government does not like now. This will I'm sure they'll continue to appeal This will continue to make its way up the through the court system But very very significant ruling here. I'll just read you from a little bit of what the judge wrote wrote judge Noelle wise of the US District Court for the Northern District of California said that quote in the US freedom of speech belongs to the people It is not the governments to take foundational to America's enduring democracy are our freedoms of speech and the press embodied in the first amendment In the US free speech including the freedom to criticize the government and its leaders is not a sign of our democracy's fragility It is evidence of its strength that strength is diminished when members of our society, citizens and non-citizens alike, must self-sensor and behave or suffer the government's retaliation. So this ruling is not directly in regard to the cases of the three individuals I mentioned previously, Makmu Kolei-Rumizaz, Turk and Moshe Mandawi. However, it is going to have major implications for those cases going forward, so significant when here for fire and in general for free speech. I think that this ruling obviously is very obviously important ruling, props to fire for doing it, very few wanted to. It extends a reading of the First Amendment specifically, so that not only over legal visa holders, but restricts the government's ability to restrain it in any way over both legal and obviously US citizens. I think it's important also, especially at a time where you have all of this craziness with the Pentagon hiring these influencers who are then attacking the journalist. I mean, the head of the Pentagon is literally out there. The spokesperson, we talked about saying publishing this is a crime. I mean, that's crazy. He's saying you were putting what Pentagon papers didn't happen ever before. >> Yeah, Trump and the Supreme Court. >> Also the thing that he's going to report Kristen Walker to the FTC because she said not all of his endorsements were endorsed candidates were winning. >> Which is empirically true. >> That's the quite literally true. If you look at his track record, I think beyond that actually though in terms of the Israel exception to free speech on the right is one where I even saw their reaction to this. They're all just like, oh well, this means we're going to have to work around the court or we're going to have to try and keep these people out in the first place. They're so hyper-dedicated to restricting the debate that it's important to have the court on the side of free speech in this particular case because it highlights like resources and what they spend on. When we saw that, you know, the video of Ostherk getting arrested. Look, the lady didn't break the law. She came, you know, she was doing a student visa. I read her op ed. It was anodine at best. It wasn't even easy to find. Do you remember it was on like a tough student? >> He was doing a dude who's ran my op ed calling for divestment. >> No one gives a shit. No offense. But maybe on your campus. Beyond that, nobody would have heard this lady's name if you hadn't gotten arrested on the street. You spent a team of agents to do so kaleal the same thing. He's like the most mild mannered dude who was out there and was constantly going to Shabbat dinners. They turned these people into national symbols and made them look much more reasonable than any of the unhinged Zionists who were even on the side in the first place. So, the fact is, the ruling is good. But all of it is in service basically to this government and trying to restrict the debate around this. And ultimately, I think that's why, you know, not only the court decision is very important. But the fact is, is that you've got American reporters and team who are out there getting beaten while they're doing interviews with 56-year-old ladies. I mean, these are old ladies that are out there doing nothing. And they're getting beaten on camera. And then it draws like the most mild mannered, you know, criticism from here in the West with no change in our policy. That's what it's all about, period. Yeah. And the Israelis will do what they think they can get away with. Yeah. And what they found is they can get away with a lie, whether it was under Biden and certainly now under Trump. Trump said this morning, or maybe this was from an interview yesterday, that Israel wouldn't exist if he wasn't president. So, everybody do with that information. What you will. All right. Sorry. We've also got an update from the courts on the betting market. Let's do it. People wake up and go, oh, damn, wait a minute. They change all of that. Yes. It's real. It's raw. And download Roland Martin unfiltered on the IHA radio app, Apple Podcast. Honey, is it on? Is it on? This is your gross T.S. Madison coming to you loud live. And always and forever in color from the outlawed podcasts with me, T.S. Madison. This week Laverne Cox is back. We're talking about her new book, her controversial X and going off on the red carpet. 20 minutes later, it's like, let's squash this a talk about. I was like, no, you do not talk to me like that. That is unacceptable. I want to ask like, we used to break up. And can you ever really change a man? Listen to outlawed T.S. Madison on the IHA radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts. Whether you're a seasoned NFL fan or new to the game, there's one place to keep up with all of it. The league's newest podcast, the NFL report posted by me, Andrew Ceciliano. It is your home for everything football, breaking news, expert analysis, game picks, and here from your favorite players to join me and at all star cast of experts for everything you need to know from around the league. Get new episode to the NFL report Monday through Friday, all season long. Listen to the NFL report podcast on the IHA radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.