8/26/26: Iran and Oman Defy Trump, Lake America, China Says Screw You

This is an iHeart podcast, Guaranteed Human. Hey, this is Hayes Davenport and Sean Clemence. We host the podcast, Hollywood Handbook. Each week we talk to someone in show business and try to help them with their careers and see what they have to offer us. Everyone has a good time and no one gets mad at their publicists for letting them do our show. We've had a lot of great guests like Sarah Sherman, Adam Scott, Danny McBride, Ben Stillert and a lot of other big shots that wouldn't be where they are without us. Listen to Hollywood Handbook on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. I survived nine months in captivity and I've spent my life exploring how other people survive what should have destroyed them. I'm Elizabeth Smart and these are the survivor files. Every week I'm with survivors who live through the unthinkable, abducted, stalked, controlled and merely silenced. These are stories about what it takes to make it out alive. 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But if you guys want to go first, right in the pitch, you tell me what you want to do. No, right in the pitch. Put the pitch up there on the screen. Ryan, you deliver it. You deliver it because you are sick of hearing it from me. Breakingpoints.com. Yeah. Get the show for free for a month. Love it so much. You can't cancel it. Right. Or you forget to cancel it. And then you're a premium member and you get to ask Saga any question you want. That's right. You get to ask us anything. I did. I watched a little bit of your guy's AMA. I really enjoyed it to us. So thank you for. You don't want to do it on those? No, they're great. They actually are. A genuinely fantastic. So with that, go ahead. And sign up. All right. Now what are we starting with? Iran. We're going to start with Iran and Oman there. Now announcing a new deal to govern the Strait of Hormuz. This comes as Trump claims that all minds have been taken out of the Strait. There's some interesting stuff going on with oil markets. In addition to a long, new reported piece from the Wall Street Journal about the warnings that Trump received in the situation room that basically laid out exactly what was going to happen. And he did it anyway. And also some major egg on the face, not just for Pete Hexeth, who we always knew, wasn't idiot. But for General Dan Cain, who really tried to whitewash a lot of his reputation of the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff ahead of time. And this does show how much culpability he has in this disaster. We're going to talk about Canada. Trump is now saying he's going to rename Lake America, sorry, Lake Ontario. Lake America as Canada has retaliated with 50% new tariff. I'm going to show you some of the economic fallout from that situation. China is now hitting back at Scott Besson's threat of an economic de-dem. Man, I, just one of those days, I was so bummed not to be on the show, I mean, just a pretty fuel, to ridicule the, I mean, to imagine generalizing how we're being like, Germany, I'm going to invade you. I might, don't make me do it. Right, don't make me invade you. And then the press goes, but why don't you just do it? And he goes, well, why would I want to take casualties? Yeah, yeah, why would you? All right. All right. They have a private run. It's going to be awful. Anyway, Robert Paye, the professor, the great professor is going to join us not to talk about Iran, but actually talk about South Korea, another area of expertise of his as Donald Trump continues to marginalize and to isolate South Korea. A South Korean public opinion flips against the United States for the first time in its entire modern history. Also pet story here, I hope we have time for it and we don't get lost in the sauce. Influencers, I'm obsessed with this story. She's this woman who is on Twitter, her name is Data Republican. She's like, you know, major Trump, I guess, influencer, I'll leave it. She's like a nod at Smart Nick Shirley. Right, right. Yeah, which is saying something in terms of spelling. Anyways, so she has been out posted for years behind her moniker, has revealing fraud and all this other stuff also happens to be prosynas. Well, it turns out not only did she screw up a monumental story, which they tried to hand her a leak, but through the revelation, she is a working as an employee for the Pentagon. And so I mean, can you imagine like some anonymous leftist influencer with a million followers who under Biden, who it turns out is literally working for the government, never mind, bonkers, absolutely crazy. Finally, Dan Osborne is going to join us, the candidate in Nebraska to talk about this beef situation. There's a very sketchy announcement where Donald Trump said we're going to import millions of pounds of beef, and then these beef producers have agreed to sell at 25% below. Market price, nobody knows where the beef is coming from. He literally won't say they're covering it up, ranchers and Midwestern senators, GOP, people are losing it. All of these people are getting destroyed by two separate things, the price of diesel and fertilizer, on top of the tariff, so they are getting absolutely nuked on the bottom line and to have the government basically bringing a bunch of foreign beef undercut the entire market. I mean, this could literally be the death now of the ranching industry, so that's all of it. Finally, we did our pitch already, so I don't have to do it. If you're watching this on YouTube, please hit subscribe to our YouTube channel. If you're listening to the podcast, please share an episode with a friend. All right, let's go ahead and start with Iran. As you said, A1, let's put it up here on the screen. This was by far the biggest news that came out yesterday. So on the left, this is from the foreign minister of Oman. Here he says, "Constructive dialogue in Tehran with my colleague, Dr. Arochi, I am hopeful we will soon announce a temporary corridor for the straight-of-form moves and practical arrangements to restore safe navigation. Future management of the straight and the permanent solution will follow and do course as per Article V of the Islamabad memorandum. Discussions with regional partners will be conducted in support of peace, cooperation, stability and freedom of navigation. But in the joint statement that they pulled out, let's look at this very carefully." The proposed framework, this is a translation from Farsi, includes creating a temporary joint operation through the straight-of-form moves for the purpose of implementing a joint corridor through the straight with the goal of managing a single corridor for the permanent and future management of the straight as well as providing mechanisms for information exchange, traffic management and security related services. In other words, this is a single unified corridor through the straight-of-form moves guaranteed by Iran and Oman. It has nothing to do with the United States, the United States has nothing to do with brokering this agreement. This agreement, as you can read between the lines, will include management fees and environmental fees, security related expenses, perhaps, in which Iran would be able to charge some sort of a toll. It comes immediately after this new announcement from Donald Trump, let's put it up here on the screen. He claims, quote, "I have just been informed by the United States Navy. All minds have been removed and are detonated from within the international waters of the straight. Iran has been notified any ship or boat placing new minds will be immediately and systematically destroyed. Through Space Force, we are watching every square inch of the straight, as we are also with Pickaxe Mountain and the R-Ready Destroyed three other nuclear sites. There is a zero tolerance policy on mind placement and full force and effect. Thank you for your attention to this matter. It will shock you, absolutely, shock you to learn. No independent analysis has been able to confirm, Ryan, that all the minds have been removed through the straight. Basically, it's a battle of propaganda over who controls the actual straight form. Yeah. And this comes after the Trump administration said that if Oman cooperates with Iran, he will, quote, bomb the hell out of them. No, bomb the shit out of them. Oh, sorry. My fault. These are actually important distinctions. Yes. Oman, what Oman is signaling here is that they understand who's a more important player in the region and who's going to be there longer. Spoiler, it's the country that has been there for thousands of years, that is going to continue to be there, surrounded by mountains, while it is the one on the other side of the ocean that has, you know, 15 of its bases in ashes that is less likely to be there for that long. So Oman is like, you're really going to bomb the shit out of us. I'm not so sure about that. This also comes, interestingly, think about this. We spent my time. One day on Tuesday talking about how Scott Besson is planning to launch D-Day on any country that does any business whatsoever with Iran. Oman, our ally, responds by jointly releasing a plan to reopen the straight together with Iran. Right. It's like people are watching Scott Besson in amusement and a little bit of concern and horror and is he okay? That's the kind of, I think, the driving concern when people are watching Besson at that press conference. Like, is he going to survive this just physically? And then they're like, okay, anyway, back to the business of negotiating with Iran to reopen the straight-of-formos. Meanwhile, so they're going to let oil flow through the straight-of-formos. They've said they're not interested in nuclear weapons. We'll end the program. Like they've said that for days, for months, for weeks, for years. So everything that we could ask for except the fact that it's embarrassing because they and Oman will collectively run it. Meanwhile, there is, the U.S. seems to think that they have some time on their hand. We can put up A3, this is oil analyst Roy Johnson analyzing some of the new information coming out showing that directionally the U.S. claims that there's a little bit more oil coming through straight-of-formos. The absolute number that they're claiming is a bit preposterous, but directionally, as Johnson is saying here, it's in that right direction. The problem is the Red Sea has collapsed because the Houthis have effectively shut down particularly Saudi ships. In the beginning of several months of this war, the Saudis were able to move a lot through the pipeline and through the Red Sea and through the western coast, and that was keeping things. Right. And actually, just to underscore your point, put A4 up here on the screen to show the damage that they're continuing to take in the Red Sea this happened yesterday. So there was a direct hit at sea, a projectile that was fired for more than 1,000 kilometers away. As you can see, the Yemenis as this Ocent account is saying are improving their skills. I mean, this takes serious effort. It's a moving ship. Right. It's a target. It's 1,000 kilometer shot. The amount of GPS navigation, technology involved. Remember, you have the full force of the empire against you. You've been bombed. You've been bombed by the Saudis. You've been taking hits and caves for the last 10 years. You've proven that you've been able to clip in F-35 to survive the onslaught of the Biden administration, of the Trump administration, of the Saudi regime, and on top of that, you're still able to hit a direct target of 1,000 kilometers away and to menace the global oil market. If I'm curious for your reaction, me reading this, this makes the situation 10 times more dangerous because what is Iran seeing as Rory has shown through his independent analysis? Gulf loadings are now roughly 7 to 10 million barrels per day. That is 50% of pre-Hormuz, or pre-Iran War, Hormuz traffic. They're learning. Predominantly the way, and even though it's not just about oil, this is what I also want to emphasize. The way they're doing it is still really expensive. They're called ship-to-ship transfers, where they load it up onto one ship, and then they take a little ship and put it on another ship, and then they run the blockade. It's kind of like Confederate blockade runners on these tiny little ships, and then they get to the big ship, which is raiding outside the straight, and then they put the oil back on. This is super expensive. It's all uninsured, too, completely uninsured. It's backed by the Gulf nations, which are paying for all of this. So it's 10 times more expensive to do business this way than normal. But some oil is beginning to leak out just because the price is so damn high, especially with diesel. So there is an economic incentive for this to continue. As the United States and the Gulf allies are able to prove that they are able to get some oil out of the straight, and if Iran and Oman are going to say, hey, we manage this straight, in my opinion, this escalates the situation to a dire consequence for Tehran. Because Tehran is in a situation now where they're beginning to feel the economic blockade. Yesterday, the financial times, which has an actual correspondent in Tehran, is saying that there are lines, cues to get petrol, gasoline, that there's beginning to be significant amounts of rationing throughout the state. They can only sit there and take this for so long, and they still have the ability to horizontally escalate. I was reading this morning, Qatar's LNG has down 96% in the last six months, 24 billion in revenue that they had to give up. What's worse for them is that the United States is the one that's backfilling all of this LNG. I also read this morning that European gas inventory is very, very low. So the amount that we're all going to be paying for electricity to this winter, not going to be good. So all of this right now is in a situation where you're Iran, you're being slowly suffocated to death. You have the ability to lash out. I've talked about the Germans in 1916, unrestricted submarine warfare. They didn't want to press the button, but ultimately they felt like they had to. They said, we're going to die. We're going to be strangled. Literally. So what do you do? You use the last thing in your arsenal and Iran still has that ability. That's why I think that as we see more oil begin to flow through the straight, it makes escalation more likely on their part because it's the only thing that have left in their quiver. Yeah. I'm glad you picked up on that because that seems to be the piece that both US policy makers and also the American media seems to be missing, and also some kind of Iranian, I don't call them supporters or whatever, they're missing the fact that Iran has been able to basically annihilate all the American bases. They've been able to withstand the punishment, the punishing attack from the US. They've been able to inflict real damage, not just militarily on the US, but also economically. But those things by themselves, to your point, are not enough to quote unquote win the war. You can't force the president to abide by the MOU. You were able to pressure him into an MOU, but then as he was feeling shame or whatever, he felt comfortable walking away from it, and to your point, yes, Iran probably doesn't have years of this. Now, does the US have years of it, politically speaking, can they keep that going? Who knows? The point is Iran does have the capacity to escalate this. And Iran has kept signaling over the past couple of weeks. They keep saying, we are still at war. We do not have a ceasefire with the United States. We consider this blockade and this D-Day from Besson. We consider these to be acts of war, and we reserve the right to respond violently. And I think that's the real question. Do they do that, and have we, through our many decapitations, put enough hardliners in place that the ones arguing for that are going to do it? And if they do it, what does that look like? More attacks on American bases, attacks on Gulf infrastructure, or attacks on Israel. We don't know exactly, or do they start hitting some of these shuttle boats and shut down the shuttle trade. We don't know, but you're right that the pressure is on them. Yes. The balls in their core. Obviously, the more that there's no major munitions flying, it's actually on the side of the United States. Because we're not expending our munitions. We're sitting there, we're marshalling this international coalition, the Gulf guys desperately want their oil out of there, they need to make money. And so for them, basically, the gamble that they're making is that they're just going to sit there and they're going to take it. And I mean, no country on earth is just going to sit there and take it. By the way, meanwhile, in terms of the messaging that's going out, we just wanted to give you a taste of potentially our next White House press secretary Scott Jennings talking about how all of the shows we won the war. Let's take a listen. And I believe this announcement may confirm something that many in our political class refuse to acknowledge the United States has won the war against Iran. Wars are one when one side achieves its strategic objectives and the other loses the ability to achieve its own. Iran entered this war with four great pillars of strength, its nuclear program, its missiles and drones, its regional terror network, and its ability to hold the world economy hostage through the straight of war moves. Every one of those pillars has been severely damaged or outright destroyed. Severely damaged or outright destroyed is we just did an entire segment about how even our victory six months into the war is that the Gulf Arab allies driven by desperation to fund their countries are able to get roughly 40 to 50% of their oil traffic out of the straight. Yeah, does it look like victory to me? Hey, this is Ace Davenport and Sean Clements. We host the podcast Hollywood handbook on the big money players network. Our show is extremely accessible to first time listeners. Each week we talk to someone in show business aka the biz and try to help them with their careers and see what they have to offer us. Actually, you think it's the straight man is actually the one who's acting weird Adam Scott This entire time you've been expecting Adam Sandler to come to visit the show I would never let go of that. I have I would never set expectations for something like that It seems like if the universe allows for something like that to happen. Yeah, I am open to I'm always going to accept You know, Danny McBride fine. Yeah, it's all this fragile masculinity Exuding I could smell it walking on the hallway to be honest with me. Mm-hmm, mm-hmm. I was like, is that what we need? Nope, it's fragile masculinity. Mm-hmm. Yeah, Ben stiller. No I think there's a lot of times in out of context people don't get it or even know what a circle is You know what I mean? Like girl, I go work just so stupid around everyone's so dumb and fake Right fake and and also not interested or just like, oh, I've got my life I don't care about your life and a lot of other big shots that wouldn't be where they are without us Oh, and by the way, Will Ferrell told us personally he loves the show and he wants to be a guest on every episode But he's just so busy listen to Hollywood Handbook on the iHeartRadio app Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcasts On the new podcast solita we share the messy reality of traveling alone as a woman I can wait four hours for the next bus or this random dude is offering me a ride on his motorcycle I choose option B. I'm Julie Beniero and I travel by myself because it's a rare space where I can say yes Without asking anyone else first. I'm on a mission to reclaim the word solita Trading the pity for possibility Every time I tried to be alone I kept meeting people and they were like you smiled at us Not a lot of people smile around here. It's when you're alone that you're most receptive to the world as it is and not the lies You're sold about it. It can be a time where you push your limits change your mind or wake up to a new version of yourself So whether you're a solo travel veteran or you're too nervous to book your first trip I hope you listen to solita on the iHeartRadio app Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts If your bookshelf and your for you page are equally important to your personality, welcome home This is pros society the weekly podcast that's part book club part group chat for thought daughters pop culture Obsessives and anyone who thinks pride and prejudice and love island deserve the same level of discourse I'm Eli Rallo and every week we're connecting the dots between books the internet and the conversations everyone can't stop having I'm gonna have to look up this story I'm obsessed so obsessed from best-selling authors and your favorite book talk creators to the latest pop culture moments Nothing is off the table It's like if you can hide some real messages inside compelling characters and that is the Trojan horse Whether you're looking for literary deep dives smart pop culture conversations or a community of readers who love to Think a little too much you're in the right place Listen to pro society on the iHeartRadio app Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. See you between the pages Which leads us to our next part. Let's put this one up here on the screen. This is from The Wall Street Journal one of their longer retrospectives that they're doing the warnings that came before a war now reaching The six month mark and I believe we will hit that mark two days from now on Friday February 28 is when the entire thing kicked off. Here's what they say days before going to war with Iran in February President Trump summoned his intelligence chief to the Oval Office to ask whether a full-on assault was a good idea Iran was at its weakest point in decades is really Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had told him providing Trump the rare opportunity to dismantle the nuclear program and the bolster his legacy as a peacemaker then director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard outlined assessments from America's intelligence apparatus. She told Trump quote Killing Iran's supreme leader would usher in a more hard-line regime open to acquiring nuclear weapons true Tehran would rush to close the straight of our moves true destabilizing the global energy market true And it would force us forces and partners strike us forces and partners in the Middle East Prompting questions about American resolve and reliability with allies true The notes of caution echoed warnings Trump was receiving from all corners Trump top military officials had told the president a war would lead to casualties and major concerns about weapons stockpiles and readiness problems for an overstretched force And then Trump decided to order that attack on February 28th What's even more interesting actually here are what they talk about with General Kane And so this is where I want to reserve my most smoke for good. Okay. All of the Hegs you know Tulsi all right, I mean, you did your job. I see reads drops at news Right. Yeah. Yeah. Watches maybe I mean who even knows But okay, you did your job. He spoke truth to power. You didn't do shit else about it And you left and still apparently had good terms. So whatever JD allegedly in the situation room was the only person who said I really don't think you should do this. But if you do, I guess I have to back you those are the two only two people who actually said anything even remotely Against it Tucker Carlson again was in the oval and he was like I really don't think you should do this And Trump said what did he say said it always works out? Why is it why do you think it's gonna work out because it always does He'd always does okay So but here's what General Kane and the reason again, I'm gonna reserve all my smoke for General Kane Hegs set all these other people they're all ultimately they're in politics Kane by acts of Congress his only job he doesn't actually command any forces his only job is to provide Unbiased military opinion to the president of the United States that is it literally his constitutionally mandated role as described by Congress. Here's what they say General Kane and Admiral Cooper had briefed the president several times on plans to strike targets etc However, despite the warnings Hegs set and Kane replied on multiple occasions They would navigate any complications and that they would be able to deliver the victory that Trump had promised And so it's again, it's one thing for the sect of to say it. We all know he's an idiot Sure But Kane backing up the Secretary of Defense Not providing unbiased information and remember to there was all kinds of a sia that was happening in the immediate days of the war They're like oh Kane told him not to do it. No, he didn't and actually I even report some of that at the time I said no, he didn't he was very muted in what he said and now What they're what they're even saying is that in reality what he really did is that he provided a lot of the cover Two Secretary Hegs at Andrew Donald Trump's mind as to why actually it was all going to work out Okay, so if you want to say you know for recriminations when the time comes Kane needs to be up there very very high on the list I mean he needs to go up there and infamy with General Taylor and from Vietnam with any of the other With genuinely like any of the chairmen's of the joint cheese ironically enough hr. McMaster who was Trump's national security advisor First term wrote a whole book about it, which is actually quite good about how the entire chairman Staff failed Johnson on Vietnam and never told him any of the truth and Kane who I know is read the book because it's like required reading right in military cycles Cycles comes out and repeats the entire thing a total sycophant and the one Regret I have about the fact that the that we never got the kind of parade of lies To push us into the war that we got with a wreck is that because of that we don't have Many or almost any public records from these people Of where they stood before the war like with Wolfowitz for instance We know that he said it would be a cakewalk right because he said it in front of Congress with the cameras rolling So that gets to live in infamy and it bought us this 20 years of being like well, let's not start any new wars It didn't it didn't end the forever wars But at least it took until Trump to like start another giant war We don't have any clips of Kane talking publicly all we have is reporting from the times reporting from the journal you're reporting That and and and his own spin at the time of saying no, no, I was I said a lot about you know the material Limitations of of our capacity at the moment and that you know Trump should be concerned That was the thing that Kane's people were trying to spin in the meany that no he said we got to be careful about our stocks and munitions It's you know, it's none we're not sure that we really have Everything in the barrel that we're gonna need to do this when behind closed doors Talking to this guy who was you know really itching to do this He's saying we got your boss. Don't worry about the naysayers the same naysayers who told you that you couldn't swoop in and Grabbing Durow and his wife in the middle of the night and you went and did it sir You know, we are gonna make sure that Okay, yeah, maybe what Netanyahu saying is a little bit over the top But you know and certainly they're gonna be some problems But we got this it's greatest military in the world sir exactly and you know at the same time just to show you kind of where things are Let's put the next one up here on the screen. It appears now that the US State Department is basically offering $10 million this is very war on terror ask offering 10 million dollar bounties For information on key IRGC leaders including the new supreme leader And so they basically have a list here of all of the top leaders from the IRGC and of Iran saying, Hey, anybody will pay you $10 million to give us information. The reason why I'm putting these two things together is they are now offering $10 million of bounty for information obviously for potential assassination purposes because all of these people are now in power because of the operation. It fulfills the exact promise or the exact prediction that was made apparently by the U.S. intelligence community. You and I have a lot of smoke for the intelligence community, but even they apparently were like, wow, these railways are just blanket liars whenever it comes to their prescriptions about how this entire thing is going to go. And we cover the day-to-day over and over again, but the how we got here is vitally important because every single one of these people is still in power. Tulsi aside, I mean, the new DNI equally is much of an idiot and sick of fan. General Cain is still running the war, Secretary Hegsett is still running the war. I mean, all of these people, they're horrible judgment. And if anything, as we've seen many times in history, they only have even more of an incentive to double down on their previously bad advice to cover up how much of a disaster it's been. And five of these 14, we don't even have photos in the picture, it's like what an incredible collapse of our intelligence and our ability to have any eyes on the ground inside of Iran, a country of 90 million people with like, it's six to seven major ethnicities which makes it much more able to be penetrated where the Israelis are everywhere, like they're not sharing the Facebook photos that they have with these guys. And of the 14, there's like a bunch of gray bearded bureaucrats. You think they don't have gray bearded bureaucrats who can take their place. If we go in and assassinate them, like, we're going to assassinate Mojitava coming here. Yeah, well, no, apparently what the new cope is that he's actually dead. Well, whether he's dead or not, the people who are running the country in his name, they seem to have a hell of a better idea on how to do it than his father did. So if anything, or folks do him being dead or brain dead is probably the best case scenario for all of you. Just be a convenient figurehead and they can run the country in his name, likely almost certainly to continue now for many, many years. Yes. Okay. We'll serve the next 200 years. Let's get to Canada. We host the podcast, Hollywood Handbook on the big money players network. Our show is extremely accessible to first-time listeners. Each week we talk to someone in show business, aka The Biz, and try to help them with their careers and see what they have to offer us. We've had a lot of great guests like Sarah Sherman, not that great. Actually, can you help me shape this? How about we flip it on his head? No. How about we flip this around? Okay. How about the surprise one, man? Actually, you think is the straight man is actually the one who's acting weird. Adam Scott, this entire time you've been expecting Adam Sandler to come to visit the show. I would never accept expectations for something like that. If the universe allows for something like that to happen, I am open to it. I'm always going to accept. You know, Danny McBride, fine. Yeah. It's all this fragile masculinity exuding. I could smell it walking on the hallway to be honest with you. I was like, is that what you need? Nope. It's fragile masculinity. Ben stiller. No. There's a lot of times out of context, people don't get it or even know what a circle is. You know what I mean? Like, girl, I go into so stupid. Everyone's so dumb. And fake, right? Fake and also not interested or just like, oh, I've got my life, I don't care about your life. And a lot of other big shots that wouldn't be where they are without us. Oh, and by the way, Will Ferrell told us personally he loves the show and he wants to be a guest on every episode, but he's just so busy. Listen to Hollywood Handbook on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcast or wherever you get your podcasts. On the new podcast, Solita, we share the messy reality of traveling alone as a woman. I can wait four hours for the next bus or this random dude is offering me a ride on his motorcycle. I choose option B. I'm Julie Piñero and I travel by myself because it's a rare space where I can say yes without asking anyone else first. I'm on a mission to reclaim the word Solita, trading the pity for possibility. Every time I tried to be alone, I kept meeting people and they were like, you smiled at us, not a lot of people smile around here. It can be a time where you push your limits, change your mind, or wake up to a new version of yourself. So whether you're a solo travel veteran or you're too nervous to book your first trip, I hope you listen to Solita on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcast or wherever you get your podcasts. This is Pro's Society, the weekly podcast that's part book club, part group chat for thought daughters, pop culture obsessives, and anyone who thinks pride and prejudice and love Island deserve the same level of discourse. I'm Eli Rallo and every week we're connecting the dots between books, the internet, and the conversations everyone can't stop having. I'm going to have to look up this story, I'm obsessed, I'm obsessed. From bestselling authors and your favorite book talk creators to the latest pop culture moments, nothing is off the table. It's like if you can hide some real messages inside compelling characters and that is a Trojan horse. Whether you're looking for literary deep dives, smart pop culture conversations, or a community of readers who love to think a little too much, you're in the right place. Listen to Pro's Society on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. See you between the pages. President Donald Trump has come back with the ultimate rebuttal in his trade war with Canada, he's going to rename Lake Ontario Lake America Lookout. In any event, here we have the Canadian Minister of Finance, I love this, a Francois Philippe Champagne, with what the Canadian response to the U.S. trade war is going to be. On August 22nd, the United States of America imposed tariffs on 50% on approximately 28 billion in Canadian goods. Those tariffs will have real consequences for Canadian workers, businesses and communities across our nation. Canada must respond and today we are in a proportionate, targeted and strategic way. Today I'm announcing that Canada will match the United States tariffs dollar for dollar rate for rate. Effective September 8th, Canada will impose counter tariffs of up to 15, 25 or 50% on 27.6 billion in imports from the United States of America. For each product, our tariff would match the American tariff on the same type of Canadian good. And the Canadian said that they're trying to target with precision states that voted for Trump. And so if you live in one of those states, they're going after particular products made in those states because they know they don't have the capacity to kind of break the back or break the economy of the entire United States because they're not big enough. But they can make things very difficult for particular towns and cities in states that voted for Trump. Trump, however, has got your back and here's how he's going to do it. Put up B1 here, Donald Trump on Truth Social. The United States is giving serious consideration to changing the name of Lake Ontario to Lake America in that we don't expect to be doing much business with Ontario any longer. Thank you for your attention to this matter, President Donald J. Trump. And of course, he also posted a little image, a little AI rendition where he exes out Lake Ontario and replaces it with Lake America. Now we can, B3, we can roll through some of the specifics here. So Canada's talking about Trump is saying that he's going to move tariffs on Canadian vehicles up to 50%. So Canada has come back and saying, okay, well, then we're going to push tariffs on Canadian vehicles back up to 50%. And it's kind of a crisis situation where you have the auto workers in both states and the United auto workers represent auto workers in Canada and the U.S. And you have the auto executives backing him not to do this. So the industry that he's fighting for is pleading with him not to do this. He's saying he's going to do it anyway before Honda, which I think like five of the American made, five of the top 10 like vehicles that are made in the United States too and made in North America. Many of them are made in America. Like they invested very heavily in creating supply chains and factories in the U.S. and Canada. Not out of the goodness of their heart. No way. Because we force them to do it. We force them to do it. And so they're saying we might have to raise prices because their supply chains run back and forth but across the border. Right. I can explain this actually. It's this is part of it. First of all, I just want to say the top like obviously, and this is like Canadians you're going to get mad. But it is actually true. after we're done. It was a disaster for us. It wasn't for you. It worked out real well for you. A lot of our manufacturing plants in Detroit and throughout the United States moved to Canada and to Mexico, either for labor arbitrage purposes or for various other access to resources. I get it. I don't blame a multinational for doing that, for taking advantage, but it did not work out for our working class. The way that the cars are made right now is basically NAFTA plus USMCA, which means that many of these cars, and this was Honda, is talking about. The parts in the car, in some cases, can move across the border up to 10 to 15 times. I'm exaggerating. It may not always be that much, but various different types of the car. Once it's finally assembled in the United States, there are parts in it that come from all over the world, but particularly move back and forth for machine purposes, manufacturing purposes, that eventually make their way into the Honda vehicle, which we eventually purchase in the United States. Honda does this because that's the way that NAFTA and USMCA set out the law. They said there won't be any tariffs that are on those. Again, I don't support the system. I don't think it should be that way, but it is what it is at this point. Then, when the tariff comes into effect, what ends up happening with the way that Trump is doing it, is it would increase the cost every time the thing moves across the border. That's why the car manufacturers are freaking out because that would raise the imminent cost of them. If you had to pay that cost, even once or imagine 10 times, that explodes the cost of the increment on the actual part. Also from what I understand, the car makers know the shit's not actually going to last. Most of the time, they'll just keep it in Canada. They're like, we're just going to wait for the taco and then we'll move it across the border that time. But, obviously, what does that do? Now, production has to shut down. Now, he got none of that. Me quote us. It causes all kinds of insanity whenever it comes to the vehicle tariff, or even right now, Trump said he was going to double the tariff to 50 percent whenever it comes to the civics to Dan, for example, Honda currently assembles the Civic in Canada. It's the second largest vehicle manufacturer by volume. And so a lot of that is eventually sold here in the United States. Again, I don't want to give the Canadians too much credit because when, and this has happened under Biden, so this isn't just TDS or anything, under Biden, you can go and read the headlines. There were all of these made in America provisions for the EV, manufacturing credits. The Canadians were lobbying the hell out of the government. They're like, how can you do this to us? You can't just make it in your country. You need to make it in an hour. We were like, no, we want to make it in our country. The Canadians were furious with Biden. And even more so under Donald Trump, so this is kind of a year's long story. Same thing happened in Europe. I get it. They're looking out for their interests. I think we should look out for hours. Now, it's just the way I would handle our relationship with Canada. Now, as I said, I don't have any great love for Canada. But what we can see here is, even if you were to support this in a vacuum, which is true, Canada needs us a lot more than we need them, but we still need a major top trading partner to launch this at a time of massive inflation, and to do it in such a manner where the Canadian population is much better positioned to absorb the price of this. Yes, put this up here while I'm talking about it, is that their population is 100% united. They're like a war footing. They don't care. They're like, alright, we're going to pay more for Tim Hort. We'll eat grass. As long as he's free. It was like, so be it. We'll sit there and we're going to take it. Are we going to sit there and are we going to take it while you're paying? What's the gas price today? Let me check. $4.10 on average per gasoline. That's like, well, we're sitting here paying high gas, high grocery and all this other stuff. They've obviously have their own problems, but we're the aggressor. And if we're going to be the aggressor, the whole population has to be our side. Nobody's on their side. They don't care about this at this time, again, in a vacuum, whatever, you can make a case, et cetera. Even then, you wouldn't probably want to do like a back and forth type of trade war on again, off again, be extremely incendiary. And what you're watching effectively is that the Canadian government right and left is totally united against the United States. I mean, Doug Ford is a national hero in Canada for all of this, like, kiss my hand and stuff. And what you're watching is on our side, nobody wants to pay any of these higher tariffs. Also because they don't even think it's going to be paired with a bigger manufacturing push, which now we've had the tariffs for over a year. We know it's not leading to that, especially because of downward pressure from the overall economy. The diesel price, the tariff, a lot of these manufacturers are dead in the United States if this continues. And it's also a bit of a side show, given that electric vehicles, you know, in the next decade or whatever are going to sweep the entire country. It would be sort of like, oh, if it will, here. I think that they'll put so much protectionism on the gas, that, I mean, look, also look, got to save my smoke for the American consumer. Dodge was out here bragging about the Dodge Ram being the number one seller in the country. There are guys out there taking out 9% interest car loans over 48 months by an $80,000 souped up trucks for literally no reason. And so there is a part of that in the American heart, which we'll never go away. Maybe that's right. Right. I look at it as like two different countries competing over the manufacturing of horse and buckies in like 1905. That's, it's a fair point, but this is always going to be part of our market. Maybe I'm wrong, and you're right, that just the construction of our lives and the suburban nature of it and the cultural attachment to the gas guzzlers is going to override pure economics. We'll see. But you're right. If you were going to redesign the system, you would renegotiate it. Like sit down, you know, Trump had the USMCA that he agreed to. Like if he wanted a different trade policy, the massive trade negotiation that was underway was like the place to do it. This like ad hoc scatter shot tariff war that he likes to do is, yeah, like because they don't expect it to stick, it doesn't have the effect. You're right that the reason that Honda is here is because of US tariffs and because of US trade policy, and also just enormous amounts of kind of, it boarded into xenophobic anti-Japanese. Right. So the game that everybody knows about the Japanese, but it was long, it was a long game. Right. And so what happened is post 1970s after the, you know, actually, Trump was all over Obro talking about how bad Japan was. I had a point actually at the time because under our market, the deal the Japanese made throughout the 80s and 90s, especially post NAFTA. It's, we were like, look, we know everybody wants your cars. They're cheaper. They're better than ours. You just got to build them here. The Japanese is like, we don't really want to, but I guess, all right, we'll do it. And so what I've heard from more recently is inside Japan, the, their belief is that they would have been better off in the long run, just making them Japan and shipping and paying the tariff. They're sick of building here. They're done. They hate American work culture. They hate most of the states. I'm dead serious. I hate American work culture. They hate the government. They, they, they think they would have been better off just building the cars in Japan and paying whatever the variable tariff would have for deal with these America. Like for deal with all this bullshit and the state of Michigan government, right? Because in Japan, when the CEO of Honda needs something, the Japanese prime minister is like, what do you need? All right. Here you go. They're like, oh, you want 100 billion. Here's 200. You know, make sure that it works out. It works here, right? So basically, look, the TLDR is that while I do think we have major structural problems in our trade with Canada, the way that this has been done, especially the whole lake America. I'm like, my God, do you have any original ideas? Sure. It was funny on the first day, Gulf of America and all of that. We can all start looking at maps and why Gulf Mexico is actually a Spanish colonial name. It's actually quite woke to rename it. That's right. I support it. It actually is. Yeah. It's a Spanish colonial name, but in reality, we all know number one, this is not going to lead to a better deal. It will lead to chaos. It will lead to higher prices. It will also lead to worsening relations with Canada, which maybe we could have afforded pre-aron war. I don't think we could right now with our top trading partner. It's part of a global isolation game. I will say, though, with Canada, you know, it's their population wants to fight. But remember, Mark Carney gave that whole speech about neoliberalism and the standing up. Yeah. We're going to change everything. And then immediately came back and trump on the Iran War and became like this NATO obsessive. So they need to make up their mind, too. Like, what are you guys going to do? I think we have to live together and we got to work it out, but look, that's not really what either of them. That's not. That's maybe what our population wants. I'm not so sure what that's what they want. And meanwhile, China is like playing a lot of footsie with Canada. Totally. They have very different rules in Canada. A lot of their Teslas have much more Chinese components from Giga Shanghai. I think maybe 10% or so. A lot of them are not even allowed to be sold here in the United States. So they have very different rules and relations with China and kind of their engagement with the rest of the world. So they're doing a balancing act, which they didn't previously used to have to do. They're mostly on the side of the United States is certainly not like that anymore. Speaking of China. Let's get to China. Hey, this is A's Davenport and Sean Clements. Each week, we talk to someone in show business, aka the biz and try to help them with their careers and see what they have to offer us. - We've had a lot of great guests like Sarah Sherman. Not that great. - Actually, can you help me shape this? Right, how about we flip this around? Okay, what is the surprise one, man? But actually, you think as the straight man is actually the one who's acting weird. - Adam Scott, this entire time you've been expecting, Adam Sandler to come to visit the show. - I would never let go of that. - I have, I would never set expectations for something like that. - It seems like if the universe allows for something like that to happen. - I am open to it. - I'm always going to accept, you know. - Danny McBride, fine. - Yeah, saw this fragile masculinity exuding. - I was like, "Is that weed?" - Nope. - That's the actual masculinity. - Ben stiller, no. - I think there's a lot of times out of context, people don't get it, or even know what a circle is. Like you're like, "Oh, it's so stupid." - Everyone's so dumb, it's for you. - And fake. - Right, fake and also not interested, or just like, "Oh, I've got my life. I don't care about your life." - And a lot of other big shots that wouldn't be where they are without us. - Oh, and by the way, Will Ferrell told us personally he loves the show and he wants to be a guest on every episode, but he's just so busy. Listen to Hollywood Handbook on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts. - On the new podcast, Solita, we share the messy reality of traveling alone as a woman. I choose option B. I'm Julie Bignero, and I travel by myself because it's a rare space where I can say yes without asking anyone else first. - I'm on a mission to reclaim the word Solita, trading the pity for possibility. - Every time I tried to be alone, I kept meeting people and they were like, "You smiled at us, not a lot of people smile around here." - It's when you're alone that you're most receptive to the world as it is and not the lies you're sold about it. So whether you're a solo travel veteran or you're too nervous to book your first trip, I hope you listen to Solita on the I Heart Radio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. - When I was 14 years old, I was kidnapped and health captive for nine months. I survived and I've spent my life exploring how other people survive what should have destroyed them. I just remember this low-taunting voice next to my ear saying, "Shut up, don't say anything." - Every week, I'm with survivors who live through the unthinkable. I knew if he woke up, without a doubt, he was going to hurt me. - I started feeling that there was someone at the end of my bed and I just started screaming. - They are abducted, stalked, controlled, and nearly silenced. But these aren't stories about what's taken from them. Their story is about what it takes to make it out alive. Listen to the survivor files with Elizabeth Smart on the I Heart Radio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. - Okay, so as we were talking about speaking about China and the way that they're navigating this entire situation, it's kind of a boon to them, the entire Iran more and even the trade war, honestly. Let's put this up here on the screen. It comes on the heels of Scott Besson, promising economic D-Day. And so, how is China responding? Let's take a look. China has vowed to protect its interests after the U.S. announced plans to widen economic sanctions against Iran and its trading partners. Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Zhang said that China was formally opposed to what it called illegal unilateral sanctions and would take all necessary measures to safeguard its rights. This comes after Scott Besson saying that he will announce new measures warning any nation financially partnering with Iran would be isolated. China buys 90% of Iranian oil. And Lin said further, cooperation between China and Iran has always been conducted within the framework of international law, and should not be we interfered with or disrupted. Tcha, obviously Besson had said the single greatest financial offensive ever against Iran and then proceeded to release absolutely zero details about the entire thing. And so, they're making it clear. And this is part of why the D-Day thing, you and I both know it's not even going to happen. If we were going to target any needs, it's going to be some small piddly nation which sends buys oil from Iran. President Xi is coming to the United States, I think next month, sometime in September. Are we really going to center our entire relations with the second largest power on Earth? Our number one trading partner, a number one unilateral trading partner, whenever it comes to China. Such enormous effect on the global economy, on us, on our relations and all that in Asia, which we've effectively abandoned. Are we really going to do it when it comes to Iran? And that's the thing, too. Even if we did, would it work? I think the fact that we did it to Russia, a second rate power compared to China, that it didn't work entirely. That it showed that their resilience to a sanction-proof, defectively financial system and weapons manufacturing allowed them to prosper for the entire time. So I think what we see with China in this entire thing is that the Trump administration is really in a bind because they're rhetoric, as you said. Remember, like D-Day, it's a term that we has meaning. I think in rhetoric, rhetorical influence. D-Day is like all-out of offense. It's all-out offense. We roll the dice, we go all-in and we're going to defeat. But if you don't do that, that's humiliating. If you do do it, it will be a disaster because we know that we don't have the ability to actually compel their behavior on Iran, which they have continued to support for the last six months. If anything, sending them weapons, giving them lots of intelligence, supporting their drone industry, and really bolstering their ability to stand up against the United States. And on your Russian point, CIA director John Rackliffe was just in Moscow. Yeah, flew there yesterday. The reporting was, and maybe you've heard whether or not I'm accurate this reporting is, is that one of the messages that he conveyed was we want you to sever ties with Iran. And if you don't, we're going to do X, Y, and Z. Russia relayed that to Iran, said, don't worry about it. We're not going to do it. And the threats that they made, we're not actually-- that's serious. And so that's Russia. Like, as you said, Russia is not China. So I'm curious from, like, if you have any insight into why it is that the Trump administration moves publicly forward with these ideas that, to any person just casually observing, are unworkable. I think it just makes Trump feel good. What does he love? Words. We talked about Lake America. D-Day. Go out and do the words. Yeah, Besson walks in. Sir, economic D-Day. And he doesn't realize there will be a week after the work that he's living in. So we-- and then he's like, well, wait, hold on. So we can't actually do that. So you announce it. But then nothing actually happens. Like I said, I mean, the prestige to the empire is immense. I mean, if the empire says D-Day, people should be like, oh, shit. Like, we're about to get rocked. Except the Chinese are like, yeah, OK, let's go ahead. Let's see. Let's see how it works out for you. The financial times actually wrote this up. In a very good op-ed, let's put this up here on the screen. They talk specifically. In the event, it seemed more like a series of warnings shots fired from far off shore. The campaign to turn Iran into an economic outcast is more over, not even one that the United States can fully accomplish on its own. But requires cooperation with Tehran's trading partners. The biggest of those, China, has signaled little intention to play ball. And as Besson acknowledged, moving too quickly with US secondary sanctions that do not comply, would blow up the global financial system. And especially what they talk about here, whenever it comes to China, says Beijing, which already buys 90% of Iran oil, warned that if the US, it would retaliate if Chinese companies were included. Any significant increase in US sanctions on China would then torpedo delicate trade negotiations only a month before Trump and Xi are due to meet in Washington. Even if the US did manage to impose the significant new economic pain on Iran, there is no guarantee that it would enforce Tehran's capitulation after two years. After two wars in the past year have damaged into industrial capacity and left inflation running at 80% and 90%. Their economy is in far deeper crisis than when Iran had launched maximum pressure in 2018. But the regime is now more hard line by the conflict only increasing its defiance. And so what they call, say here is the China problem, is basically there is no way to compel Chinese behavior, which would not immediately have blowback on the United States, which the Chinese is not going to do. And even if they did do, it probably wouldn't work. And one of the reasons, and I remember now, in retrospect, how much criticism we took talking about here, about those Russia sanctions. 'Cause I remember, and I said this, I said, if you do this, you need to do it for something which is actually vitally important to the United States. Because by pulling it out, making Russia the most sanctioned economy on Earth, then you show your hand, you show exactly the way that you can use the global financial system to your advantage and what if it doesn't work. and we know now is four years later. It didn't work at all. GDP. He is up in Russia, missile production is up, weapons manufacturing is there, they're able to pay all of the widows, they can take who knows what the real number is at the very least hundreds of thousands of casualties and survive. Their population is fine, they're still food on the shelf in Moscow. Everybody's fine. In fact, some of them are so rich they can fly to Thailand or whatever of these countries. We'll take them. But then you look here at China, the last four years is sitting there studying the entire thing. Oh, here's how the sanction worked. Here's how the bank is. Here's how they implemented it. Here's what they did against Iran. Here's what they did against Venezuela. They're just picking up data points and then they go in because it's a nation of bureaucrats and they say, how do we make sure this doesn't happen? How do we make sure that doesn't happen? They've had so many years and lo and behold, let's put the next one up here on the screen. Is that China now says, quote, they need US dollars but is building a hedge against Washington sanctions. And what they specifically laid out is that China's banks are now currently in a position where Beijing can reject the demand even though some of its biggest lenders still have a strong incentive to preserve access to the dollar. Bessent had actually even said if they facilitate transactions are part of the ecosystem that turns Iran, Iranian oil into money, they will be targeted. But the Chinese, what they're doing is they have internal mechanisms to use a different system of banking. It's called the Chinese cross-border interbank payment system or CIPS which allows it to diversify from dollar-centered finance without abandoning it altogether. PRC built CIPS in 2012, which was apparently the first year that they ever got sanctioned and they'd now have 12 years of experience actually using it. They also have put in multiple different systems inside their own banks to be able to trade on different types of currency. I know this is all very technical but this is the machinery and like the railroad if you will, which banking systems in China used to work and they built an alternative pathway to do deals with Russia and with any other country that America doesn't want it to do. They would prefer to use the primary one but the secondary one is there, battle tested and ready to go if we were to put it against them. And CNBC notes the symmetry here that it was actually in 2012 we sanctioned a small Chinese bank specifically for doing business with a run. That's why they built this parallel clearance project so that if we did that again and it goes back to that old saying if you owe the bank a million dollars, the bank owns you. If you owe the bank 40 trillion dollars, you own the bank and it's like best that needs to go back and reread his volume three of Marx's capital which talks about the way that debt and leverage shape who has control over resources because I think he's forgotten the way that this has unfolded that goes back to your point that anything that we could do because they own the bank, they own us because of our debt with them, our relationship with them, it blows right up in their face and so China has announced we will not take this lying down. You can do D-Day if you want but if you try to storm our beaches, don't forget that. We have guns, we can put your economy to the brink. He even said quote, we have our own tools and we know how to play the game. We've been waiting for these plans for a long time. Just quote, unlike us, we planned this last week. Yes, and that was the last thing I wanted to put on up here. I forgot to mention, put C4 up on the screen. Remember that we've been talking about the only reason that the entire economy did not implode as a result of oil prices was entirely because China reduced its overall oil imports to a low, which we did not even think humanly possible. It remains the reason why that oil continues to be relatively low despite the fact that there's been this major disruption. If you're watching our show, the chart in front of you shows why. As you can see, exactly the number of crude oil exports that's sent to an all time high where you can see now is that they're beginning to climb up, back to levels that we haven't seen from the very beginning in April and in May. The reason why that they're beginning to climb up is because it says Asian buyers are snapping up US crude, adding stress to a tight market. What it means is that with very little oil coming out of the straight-of-formose, that everybody has had to readjust and buy oil from where it is available. In America, thanks to the Shell Revolution. Immediately, some of this was being bought by Europe, by Japan, and others, but what they point to here specifically is China. Specifically, the China is beginning to ramp up slightly. It's overall buy. We're not even close to where we are at normal levels. They still think the price is too high. It's very clear that their electric grid capacity, their EV reliance, and their overall strategic petroleum reserve, bought them a runway, which nobody even thought possible. But as Asian buyers run through their petroleum reserve, just like the United States, eventually you're going to have to go out and buy, and that's what sends the bid price up. As we see right now with the Chinese, they can use their own buying leverage to inflict maximum pain on the United States. They don't even have to necessarily do it on sanctions. They could easily take a strategic loss by buying oil at a very, very high price, which would send demand skyrocketing in the United States, and they could easily, if they just resumed to their buying where it was pre-war levels, they could send gas prices here up to $5.50 a gallon if they wanted to, which would be a total desire. I mean, a monumental change, I think, politically, and not only same with diesel, of which, of course, they also have their own capacity. So I just wanted to flag that for everybody. As the buys continue, and if they take up even more, that $4.10 that we're seeing, I mean, every last two weeks, every time I say something, I'm like $4.02, $4.04, $4.06. I was gone for a couple of days, $4.10. Just keeps on ticking up to where things are, and there's not even any more bullets flying. God save you if you need diesel. My God, yeah, actually, yeah. I can see it in front of me, $5.62 a gallon, and diesel was at 370 a gallon a year ago for context, and has now been above $45 a gallon for months. >> And the proportion of Trump supporters who buy diesel versus gas. >> It's got to be immense. >> Yeah, right. Like I said earlier about the idiot man out there who live in suburbs, buy these diesel trucks. I'm like, hope it was worth it, buddy. Hope it was worth it, so that you can use it to move once every four years. >> For your buddy's cash. >> Or you buy it, move your friends out. Somewhere out there, there are a lot of wives saying, I told you so. I told you so. And she was right. She was about to see RV. All right, let's get to it. >> Robert Payne. >> Hey, this is Hayes Davenport. >> And Sean Clements. >> We host the podcast, Hollywood Handbook. >> Each week, we talk to someone in show business and try to help them with their careers and see what they have to offer us. >> We've had a lot of great guests like Sarah Sherman, Adam Scott, Danny McBride, Ben Stillert, and a lot of other big shots that wouldn't be where they are without us. >> On the new podcast, Solita, we share the messy reality of traveling alone as a woman. I can wait four hours for the next bus or this random dude is offering the ride on his motorcycle. I choose option B. Listen to Solita on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. >> If you're bookshelf and you're for you page are equally important to your personality, welcome home. Each week, we're connecting the dots between books, the internet, and pop culture with your favorite writers, book top creators, and plenty of over thought opinions. Listen to pro society on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. >> This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.