8/19/26: DSA Shocking Victory In Florida, Trump Backed Candidate Crushed, US Plots Retreat From Middle East

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We need your help to build the future of independent news media, and we hope to see you at breakingpoints.com. Good morning. Crystal, I'm stealing your spot here. I'm saying good morning. I can't do it like you or Sagar. But good morning, everybody. Welcome to Breaking Points. We have a great show for everyone, don't we, Crystal? Does Ryan normally good morning for you guys? He does. We let the lib do the good morning so that it's extra high energy, especially after a primary night. Yes, indeed. And it was a big one. Shocking DSA victory in Florida that pretty much nobody saw coming with Angie Nixon. She is the first DSA member in history to win a statewide election and be the nominee in this regard. So this is really wild. We also had a lot of action really across the country. Alaska, there was interesting things. You had scandal-plagued Corey Mills who got ousted on the Republican side. Randy Fine made it through, but he maybe committed some federal crimes in the process. So take a look at some caught-on-camera moments from Randy Fine. Brace yourself for that one. With regard to Iran, the UAE is halting all trade with Iran after claiming that some missiles were fired in their direction. Jeff Stein is gonna join us to break down what is happening in the bond market that's also very much relevant to Iran, both here and also our whole intervention with the Japanese yen failed. And that may also have dire implications for our bond market. He will explain. Trump's crypto scam company is now also a bank. So that's exciting. Something to look forward to, folks. And there's a new book out about the Israel lobby. We're gonna talk to their authors. Very excited to speak with them. Yes, much to discuss today. Now, as a reminder, if you haven't signed up for the newsletter, go to breakingpoints.com. It's free. So all you have to do to get the newsletter is head over to breakingpoints.com, sign up there. We're still doing a free month trial of a premium subscription at breakingpoints.com as well. So if you've always been curious about what you get with a premium subscription, you wanna support the show, breakingpoints.com is the place to go. If you subscribe for a premium subscription, you get the full show in your inbox early every day with no breaks, no cuts. And of course, you get the premium version of the newsletter. As well, of course, it is free, as we just mentioned, but we do a little extra on the premium side. So breakingpoints.com for that. Should we get into it, Crystal? - Indeed. Big elections last night in Florida, in particular. They held their primary contest. There were a number that we had our eyes on. This one I was aware of, but I can't say that I was really tracking that closely. Angie Nixon versus Alex Vindman. He was the sort of hero of one of the Trump impeachments. Nixon is a DSA member firmly on the left of the party, anti-Zionist, anti-genocide, pro-Medicare for all. She's a state rep and a union organizer. She is now also the Democratic nominee for Senate in one of the most shocking upsets I have literally ever seen. You can see the margin here, not particularly close at the end of the day, 56% for Angie Nixon to roughly 44% for Alex Vindman. Truly, truly a stunning upset here. There's a lot to say about what may have happened, but Emily, one of the statistics that is the most shocking is Nixon did not even raise a million dollars. She came in just shy of a million dollars in terms of her raise. Alexander Vindman raised some $16 million. She was, you can't even say she was outspent on the airwaves. She did not spend on the airwaves. She literally spent $0 in cable and broadcast television. And yet, here she has secured an absolutely blowout statewide victory, and it is a pretty stunning thing to wrap your head around. - Yeah, you just mentioned the spending gap here. Vindman obviously is known for being a resistance superstar on MSNBC all of the time, and you mentioned this, was kind of running on being a resistance superstar, had lots of ads about his role in the Trump impeachment effort, and has seen at least here in Washington D.C. as somebody you'd think would be a shoo-in over a DSA candidate. If you talk to Democratic Party consultants up here six months ago, I don't think they ever would have seen this coming, especially if just on paper you mapped out the spending differences, Crystal, but it looks to me like a win for the DSA over the resistance in the primary, that the DSA has replaced the energy of the resistance, has almost, dare I say, refined the energy of the resistance into something that's much more compelling to voters. - Well, certainly has a much more materialist and ideological perspective. A lot of specific policy demands, and the thing that really has sort of coalesced that coalition is the opposition to the genocide in Israel. I think that has been very central. I think we can't underrate how important it was, even in the state of Florida, which is part of what is crazy, or I just want to emphasize again, there has never been a DSA member to be the major party nominee for a statewide race. This is a historic moment. This is a historic national first. It has never happened before. And so I think a lot of conventional wisdom is still coalescing about what the hell just happened here. But let me throw into the mix a few factors based on what I can glean about how this race unfolded. And by the way, I've interviewed Angie Nixon a couple of times, very impressive leader, very bold, very courageous, has really sort of stood out in the Florida legislature. So I think she really was known in the state. She was kind of a known commodity. I think she was known in the state. She was known in the state. coalescing around people like Haley Stevens or David Crowley, for example, because there were these polling, I don't know if you call them mirages, I suppose at this point in the Francesco Hong race, it's not totally correct to call it a mirage because she still ended up with 40% of the vote, which is what a lot of the polls had her exactly at. But with these, the margins, the mirage-style margins, I guess we could say, that didn't happen here. There weren't polls dripping out over the course of the last month saying, whoa, there's a race, we've got a race on our hands here for establishment Democrats to say that. And operating under the radar, to your point, Crystal, with no money on TV, I think you mentioned somewhere like $60,000 in paid advertising, paid media advertising total. That's crazy. I mean, that is- Statewide, in big media markets, very expensive, nothing on the airwaves. $60,000, I mean, that might be some radio ads. Maybe that was some like Facebook ads or YouTube ads. But it truly was an almost exclusively grassroots campaign. By the way, I don't recommend this campaign tactic. I would suggest that you do all of the above. But she was very limited in terms of her resources. So she did with them what she could. And obviously, there's no second guessing her now that she is the nominee. One more point I wanted to make, Emma, about the under the radar element, because I do think that factor is actually really important. Another one that was like that was Minnesota, Peggy Flanagan versus Angie Craig, where I think there were two dynamics there. Peggy Flanagan, actually, like Angie Nixon, ends up vastly overperforming her polls. So unlike Francesca Hong and Abdullah Syed, where they end up underperforming what was expected, at least in terms of their final vote margin, here you have two progressive women who have vastly overperformed their polls, both of those races really avoiding a lot of the national scrutiny. And then in the Peggy Flanagan case, I think the other piece is that there's not a lot of electability concerns. And so I think that's something that's really important. And so I think that's really important. Minnesota is seen as a pretty safe state this year. Florida, however, is a very different matter. Now, possibly, Florida Democrats are not used to winning there at all. So they're just sort of throwing their electability concerns to the wind. The establishment would certainly tell them Alex Vindman is the one you have to elect if you want to have a shot here. I don't really buy that conventional wisdom, especially after we've seen what a poor campaigner he ultimately is. I think Angie Nixon is a much stronger, much more compelling candidate. But the traditional electability concerns would augur in the direction of, oh, you can't go for you may like her, but you can't go for her. Perhaps Florida Democrats are like, listen, we nominate your people all the time and they lose statewide. So what do we have to lose at this point? Well, yeah. So actually, Vindman raised buckets of money. I'm reading here from local media, which says that he was up through June. He had 14 and a half. He'd raised 14 and a half million dollars, 14 and a half million dollars in this race. I mean, that is stunning. To lose and to lose by a pretty comfortable margin for Angie Nixon. This probably had something to do with it. Crystal, you mentioned the mobilization of the grassroots. Let's take a look here at Vindman being confronted over Israel at a recent campaign event, A2. Exactly. Why you can't follow what's happening in Gaza genocide, even though the ICJ, the UN, the ICC, multiple human rights groups to include Amnesty International. What is your study? What is your study? We both have the same training in war crimes. So we know that what's happening in Israel right now are war crimes. Guys, we only have time for your pictures. I'm not drinking. I'm using evidence based to know that there are lots of folks out there. I don't think we're going to see common ground. You're staying in a position that's outside of your mind. So we have a lot. It's not way outside of the norm. Meanwhile, let's take a look at how Angie Nixon handled this issue. A3. We are at 10,000 dead Palestinians. How many will be enough? I also. One of my colleagues just said all of them. Wow. One of my colleagues said all of them. One of my colleagues also stated that this is going to dry up their fundraising if we vote on this resolution. I also want that. Like, that's what we've become in this state. That's what we've become in this state where we don't care about innocent babies that don't even get the opportunity to blow out their first birthday candle. And Chrisley, you and Angie Nixon on KKF not long ago. Let's take a look here at A4 a bit from your interview. If you were elected to Senate, you know, how would you view our relationship with Israel? Would you cut off aid to them as one example? And, you know, what do you think that we should do with regard to that particular country? Yeah, for sure. So first of all, I believe everyone has a right to exist. That means I believe that Israelis and Palestinians should have a right to exist. I don't think our tax dollars should be going over to Israel to harm communities. And I would definitely be one of the ones that would vote against sending money to Israel, especially when we have people here in our state who are struggling. We have so many folks that are living unhoused and homeless on the streets, and that money could be better spent over here as well as spent to make sure that we have access to health care. And I think that's which I know, I believe Israel has universal health care right over there. And so we don't we don't have that over here. And so I don't think we should be sending money to harm communities right now. And what about for funding your campaign? You know, are you taking any money from corporate PACs, from APAC? How do you view that aspect of things? Because I think that is so pernicious. So let's be clear. I want folks to know that I don't need special interests or corporate PACs or anything like that to tell me what it is that my community needs or to get me to to vote a certain way when I become a United States senator. But I also want folks to know that I don't think corporations or APAC would want to send me money because I'm actually always fighting for hardworking folks and fighting for unions and that type of stuff. But no, we are not accepting APAC. Funding or corporate PAC funding. We're only accepting money from the people and from people, from organizations that represent people. She leaned in on that issue. No question about it, Crystal. Oh, yeah. I don't know why I looked like Little Bo Peep that day. But anyway, I was saying you were giving trad wife milkmaid. 100%. I think the overnight curls went just like a little too hard in the paint that night. Anyway, you're just done with the goats. Just as Kyle demands. Grab that, like, whatever that hook thing is, the shepherd's hook. I was ready for my day. Anyway, Angie Craig, sorry, not Angie Craig, Angie Nixon. Angie Craig's the one that lost Peggy Flanagan. So she, that speech that you showed her giving on the House floor in the Florida state legislature, that was in November. You know, that was that was a month after October 7th. So it shows you how passionate and how quickly she came to a conclusion about what was being done in the Gaza Strip. The resolution she offered, she had one other colleague vote with her on that ceasefire resolution. So it shows a level of courage. And I think that that is part of what the Democratic base is really looking for. Where were you when it was hard? Not now that you can see the polls and it's, you know, the landscape has shifted and, you know, there's a political price to pay on the other side. And where were you on Donald Trump in the new administration? It was hard as well. And I think if you were willing to speak out against genocide in Gaza early when it was very, very difficult in the state of Florida, I might add, where it's particularly very challenging, that really augurs well in the mind of the Democratic base for how you will stand up for other issues of importance to them. You know, Vindman, I just have to go back to his comments there where he said something like your view is so out of the mainstream. What are you talking? Genuinely, what are you talking about? The majority of Americans, forget about the Democratic base, the majority of Americans view Israel as having committed war crimes. The majority of Americans want a complete rethinking of our relationship with this nation. And in the Democratic base, the numbers, even in a state like Florida, are going to be overwhelming in favor of blocking any sort of military aid to a country that has committed war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide. So he found himself, and this is, again, I think the arrogance of his position, he didn't even feel the need to try to moderate at all on the issue. He didn't try to pull like a Mallory McMorrow or some of the ones that, you know, try to at least moderate some of the language. I see you, I hear you. Netanyahu has been terrible. There's none of that. He just wouldn't engage at all. And so it shows you how on a step he was with the base and also shows you like a level of arrogance with which he comported himself, I think, throughout this campaign. and ultimately led to his defeat. We can see the level of confidence put A5 up on the screen. He had a fundraiser planned in Nantucket. I guess he can still go. Nantucket's very beautiful, but nothing to raise money for at this point. Nothing went wrong. The math just moved. Insurify dot com. Hi, Ryan Reynolds here for Mint Mobile. Are you looking for a beach read this summer? May I suggest your big wireless bill. 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And listen, I may have only been like 15 minutes from home, but it felt like it was a whole different world. And I'm thinking, this is exactly what I needed. So just go to resortpass.com. Choose your resort. Choose your day. Luxury resort. You can spend the day at a resort. Day passes start at just $25. Once you post your vacation, people are going to ask where you are. Go to resortpass.com slash almost famous and use the promo code almost famous to get $20 off when you spend a hundred dollars. That's code almost famous at resortpass.com slash almost famous. On the other hand, you've got, uh, for the governor's race, excuse me, you have David Jolly, who's actually a former Republican who won the democratic nomination for the governor's race. I actually think you may have a shot against Byron Donald's, uh, who won on the Republican side. We'll talk about the whole fish back of it all in the next block. We'll dig into some of the Republican aspect of this, but he was asked about Angie Nixon, obviously very contrasting ideological stances between former Republican and now a DSA member in Angie Nixon. Um, let's go ahead and take a listen to how he fielded that question. Is this a state Florida that can elect Angie Nixon for the U S Senate at the same time? Well, we're going to find out. We're going to find out. Look, I reject the DSA. I reject socialism. I'm a capitalist and I think capitalism provides the greatest amount of economic mobility. I have been with Angie on the trail and I'll tell you this. She's a fighter. She leaves it all on the field. She goes in every room talking about what I talk about. Can we improve your access to housing, affordable housing to healthcare? Do you know where to educate your kids? What is it that government can do where the government can help you to improve your life? Angie's out there fighting for those same values. I think she and I have a very different approach to this, but look, I reject socialism. I'm a capitalist. We'll see how Florida's voters sort that out in November. Emily, what'd you think of that answer? Well, this is a man who worked in Republican politics starting in like the 1990s. He was a lobbyist. Uh, so I think you're right. He probably does have a shot against Byron Donalds, which, which of course we'll get to in the next block. And probably that will depend on swinging South Florida voters. Those types who are upset with Trump might be upset with the affordability question and are also upset with socialism in a red state like Florida that is, is culturally very influenced by Florida, by Cubans and Venezuelans who have moved into the state. So maybe he's the candidate on the gubernatorial level, but it'll be really interesting to see what these numbers look like come election day in November, comparing what it looks like for him versus what it looks like for Nixon. Absolutely. And I do think with Nixon is almost like there's almost no downside here because she's not expected to win, right? No Democrat is expected to win Florida at this point. The state has shifted very hard to the right. I don't know what the Florida Democrats have been up to, but it hasn't worked out for them very well over the past number of years. Trump won the state, I believe by double digits. You know, there's been a hard right shift in the state that is represented in their, their state politics and who they elected the federal level as well. However, if she were able to pull off an upset, that would be completely stunning, but it is a different dynamic than say in Michigan where it's like, okay, if Abdul doesn't win, then you guys' theory of change is really wrong because this is a state that's a swing state. It's the kind of place you have to be able to win if you're going to be a serious national movement and not just a movement of, you know, liberal urban enclaves. And this is a state that, especially in a year when Republicans are expected to do quite poorly and to have Donald Trump's approval rating is in the toilet. You should be able to win. Florida is a different dynamic. So going to be really fascinating to see how this race unfolds. Of course, she is a tremendous underdog here, but again, she was a tremendous underdog about against Alex Vindman. And here she is the democratic nominee, a couple other races. And these went in the complete opposite direction. Um, DSA aligned or progressive candidates that we were tracking at the same time. So we're going to have to wait and see what happens. in this South Florida district, 65 to 37%. To be honest with you, I think this is a fairly decent showing. This is about as tough a district, maybe the toughest district you could run in, in the country as a democratic socialist, um, massively outspent all of those things. But, uh, Moskowitz with the easy win here, and we'll go on to the general election. Let's put a eight up on the screen. There were some unique dynamics in this race. And also worth noting here, all of these Florida districts got somewhat scrambled because there was a redistricting. So the original districts that Oliver Larkin and Jared Moskowitz were running in, that was changed. And then Debbie Wasserman Schultz, her district was redrawn. She decided to run in a district she does not live in, which also has been historically a, um, uh, black opportunity district. And has had, you know, black representation for decades. At this point, there was a lot of upset from local and national black leaders about her, uh, jumping into this race. However, you had a number of other black candidates, including, including Elijah Manley, who we interviewed on the show yesterday, um, who, sorry, not yesterday, day before yesterday, who, um, had, was the progressive in, in the race. So those candidates were, did not consolidate that vote. Debbie Wasserman Schultz with 45% is able to win in this district that she does not live in and over the upset of some, at least, um, community leaders there. So that's another interesting one. But again, so it wasn't, you know, uniform DSA victories across the board. I think it really was Angie Nixon's unique ability to stitch together the DSA coalition with a lot of strong support in the black community that leads to her incredibly strong result there. Um, Emily, any reflections on that? We also had some other Democratic wins in the state that are worth flagging. Well, just that because the maps were redrawn, Jared Moskowitz could well lose his seat outright. Uh, so yes, beat the DSA candidate in that race, but he might not hold down a seat in the house of representatives worth noting that, uh, and Crystal, let's get to a nine here. This is from Daniel who notes Florida Democrats flipped the school board of Sarasota County. Uh, that was one of the more symbolic strongholds of moms for liberty, liberty, Daniel notes, which by the way, in the grassroots conservative movement, that's not nothing that's fairly important, uh, because of the kind of 2020 era grassroots conservative movement, Republican party organizing moms for liberty was a decently important part of that. Also the office of the school board chair in orange County and an at-large city council seat in Jacksonville. So three things just right there. Um, and in races, people weren't paying close attention to, or super close attention to that went Democrats way last night. And one more. And by the way, uh, Trump won Sarasota County by 18 points. There was another district put a 10 up on the screen in Pennsylvania. They had a special election in the Pennsylvania legislature in a legislative district. Trump carried by 18 percentage points. This is actually in Butler, Pennsylvania, where that assassination attempt on Trump's life occurred in any case, uh, at the time of this tweet, the GOP nominee was up by just 44 votes. Now the Democrat, all the voters in the Democrat is in the lead by some, I think it was roughly a thousand votes last time I checked very, very narrowly. So last I checked the race had not been called. But Democrats look to have flipped this special election in a district Trump carried by 18 percentage points. So, uh, you know, definitely all the indications are that Democrats are in a strong position heading into the midterms. One more to name check on the Democratic side is the Senate race up in Alaska married. So the, the way they do this is it's a jungle primary, the top four, I think, move on Mary Peltola and Dan Sullivan, the Democrat and the Republican, they were the top two. But everyone's paying attention to, okay, well, who will get more of the vote and what's the margin going to be? Peltola has got to feel pretty good because she was sitting at 47, I think, percent and Dan Sullivan was down around 43%. So she secured more of the vote in this primary showing again, a lot of enthusiasm for Democrats, even in a more conservative state. like Alaska. And that is one that Democrats really kind of need to win if they're going to have a shot at taking back the Senate. Yeah, big time. And by the way, just that Brandon Dukes race in the Butler area, I've been to that district many times. That's Trump country. There's just no question about it. That's an area where you would probably would have to go back and look precisely, but where you would probably see voting patterns that look like Obama, Trump, then maybe Biden, Trump or Trump, Trump. But that's Trump country country since the last couple of years. It's like the heart of Trump country, to be honest. And that's why they did the rally in Butler there. So that's a pretty important result for Democrats to right now be claiming a victory. Very, very close election, obviously, but really something to see that. Nothing went wrong. The math just moved. Insurify.com. There are hundreds of hotel resorts, pools and spas and private beaches that you can enjoy. And I'm thinking this is exactly what I needed. Choose your resort. Choose your day. Luxury resort day passes start at just $25. Go to resortpass.com slash almost famous and use the promo code almost famous to get $20 off when you spend $100. At Ross, you'll find everything your kids need when they go back to school, from fashion to school supplies to dorm room decor. Ross has it all. Because it isn't just the first day of school for them. It's a new year, a new look and endless possibilities. When they walk back through those school doors, they're a different kid than the one who walked out months ago, ready for anything. Back to school starts at Ross. Find your nearest Ross at rossstores.com. Should we talk about what happened on the Republican side? Some interesting ones there too. We should definitely talk about what happened. On the Republican side, let's move over. We'll move back to Florida here. So Corey Mills has lost the Republican primary for the 7th district. Corey Mills was obviously swamped by all kinds of allegations of misconduct and lost pretty easily, double digits. Right now it's sitting at 47.3% for Ryan Elijah, who won that race, 34.1% for Corey Mills. Sitting congressman Corey Mills, of course, and we can put this Mother Jones element up on the screen. This is just a little bit, if you've missed the Corey Mills scandal, it should be a movie, frankly. It has been an absolute roller coaster for him over the last couple of years and the whole district. Mother Jones notes, just in bullet points, his last 18 months look like this. February 2025, Washington, D.C. police nearly arrest Mills after a girlfriend calls 911 and accuses him of domestic assault. She recants the accusation after reportedly being pressured to do so by the congressman. May 2025, Army veterans accuse Mills of obtaining a bronze star through valor. August 2025, an ex-girlfriend who Mills was cheating on with a partner who accused him of abuse seeks a restraining order against Mills after the congressman is accused of threatening to potentially share explicit videos recorded during the relationship. Then fast forward to October, just a couple months later, a Florida judge grants the restraining order. After finding a key part of the congressman testimony in the dating violence case had not been truthful, House Ethics Committee started investigating him then last November. In May, the Ethics Committee found, quote, it has authorized more than 20 subpoenas, or it revealed that it authorized more than 20 subpoenas and obtained thousands of documents as part of its investigation into serious and complex allegations against Mills. July of 2026, NBC News reports that Mills is under investigation by the DOJ, and that was into his finances. So Dropsite did some great reporting, but also The Blaze did great reporting. The conservative website The Blaze really started doing great reporting on Mills in the last 18 months. It may have even been earlier, showing his arms dealing, some of which appeared to be through the company while he was still, or while he was a sitting member of Congress. Absolutely scandal plagued, but Crystal, no real surprise he lost. It was just remarkable to watch him act as though nothing was wrong over the last 18 months. Go about business as usual here and basically hold his head up high despite all of this mounting in just a really ugly way. This was one where it was just hard for me to keep in my head all of the many scandals that he was implicated in as you were reading. And I was like, isn't that the arms dealer guy too? And yes, it was. Our own Ryan Grimm confronted him on the Piers Morgan show about the arms dealing aspect of all of this. So in any case, they were able to get this kind of like Chad-looking local news anchor guy to run against him. He was able to get a few endorsements from Republicans, elected Republicans, I think Annapolina Luna, for example, backed him. Corey Mills, on the other hand, did have Trump's endorsement and backing. Trump, this is another aspect of things. Trump actually took a number of losses last night and has taken a number of losses throughout this primary election cycle. I saw someone who had analyzed this this morning saying that 10 Trump-backed candidates had lost. That matches the higher watermark of his worst electoral season yet, that being in 2022. And if you put all of the other years that he's been in office together, more than the losses that he suffered during those years. So there is something interesting there about voters making their own judgments about some of these candidates. And they just took a look at Corey Mills and said, you know what, buddy, this is one, two, three, four or more scandals. Too much for us. We'll go with this other guy instead. Yeah. And again, though, I mean, this guy was I'm reading from a Roger Sullenberger reported drop site in July. Mills and the weapons company he founded a decade ago, Payson, were notified that their foreign creditors were moving to liquidate tens of millions of dollars in unpaid foreign debt that Mills has never disclosed to Congress, despite his personal liability. So his entire tenure in the House was an interesting glimpse into like run of the mill D.C. corruption. Then obviously the personal allegations did not help with that. Corey Mills make that case that he deserved to retain his seat in Congress. But just there should be a movie coming out of the Corey Mills situation at the very least. He is. I don't know. He's a crystal. I was going to say he's a piece of garbage, but maybe I shouldn't. Too late. Too late. I think the I think the deeds and allegations speak for themselves on that front. They sure do. Now, Byron Donald ended up winning the primary very easily. Forty seven point eight percent for Governor Jay Collins came in at ten twenty five point two percent. And James Fishback social media fueled campaign came in at ten point five percent. Now we can put this Florida politics tear sheet up on the. Screen. Most you may most remember the story from late last year. But one of Florida's largest school districts cut ties in twenty twenty two with James Fishback, now Republican candidate for governor, following allegations that he had an inappropriate relationship with a student who was a minor at the time, according to interviews and records reviewed by NBC News earlier this year. The woman came a fort, went to court asking for an order of protection against Fishback. She said he, quote, initiated a romantic relationship with her in spring twenty twenty two and directed her to keep it a secret when she said he was twenty seven. And he was seventeen working for his group, Incubate Debate. Fishback founded the organization in twenty nineteen partnering with school districts in Florida to build debate programs for middle and high school students. And at that period in Fishback's life, I can personally say because I interviewed him a number of times, he was kind of a what's the best way to put it, a kind of norms loving civility, embracing Barry Weiss style intellectual dark way. He was kind of a web centrist. It wasn't always clear to me what his ideology really was, because he seemed like somebody who was leaning really hard into the let's all just get back to having civil debates. He literally his group was called Incubate Debate. Conversations. Yes, it was. He was running. And by the way, it seemed like a perfectly normal human being at the time. Like it has rattled me. Unlike I can any other. Race or individual I can think of that I've met covering politics for a decade. It's this has seen the total personality transformation that Fishback has undergone so rapidly has been personally rattling because I knew him for several years leading up to this. And he appears to be a totally different person. And for some obvious political reasons. Right. Like he was running hard against Israel. He was running on. What was it like a syntax crystal. So against like only Right. He was running on. So against like only fans taxing only fans, that sort of thing on a lot of culture war issues that I would say put him in a position where he could have done whatever he wanted. him somewhere in the proximity of Nick Fuentes, and he was testing this out on a statewide campaign. He was calling Byron Donald Byrone and saying he was like a Section 8 candidate. So it was a gnarly campaign. And then, of course, these allegations came out. We would be remiss, though, to not mention B5. We can put this up on the screen. Another small sample from Zachary Donany, who writes, but Fishback won 89 percent of the vote in the Florida State University precinct. We'll aggregate results across these campus precincts tomorrow for a broader look at his performance with younger voters. I didn't go precinct by precinct, but I did go county by county, and he did not appear to have come out ahead in any of the individual counties and actually didn't even appear to be very close in any of the individual counties. So we'll keep an eye on that. But he certainly was drawing crowds at campuses and those sorts of places. But as we've seen before, it doesn't always materialize into something. It wasn't only at this campus, but apparently he won like all the major universities overwhelmingly, 89 percent. But then you go and look at the number of votes, 25. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Byron Donald's got one. So it shows you a little bit of a lack of enthusiasm, I guess, against amongst the young Republicans. But I think, you know, look, Fishback very much positioned himself as like a groiper, online groiper candidate. And he was greeted with huge crowds and online acclaim. And all this stuff, both in real life and in Internet life. Tucker endorsed him, for example. Yeah. Sorry, who endorsed him? Tucker. He went on Tucker's show and Tucker said, like, I hope you do well. Oh, great. And Kyle Rittenhouse apparently also voted for him. So some interesting coalition building that he's doing there. Not enough to prevail in a primary. I think this isn't this around where the polls that he would ultimately end up somewhere like in very low single digits. So I think they pretty much captured what was going on here. Yeah. We were debating before the election started what would happen. And we thought it would either be a total flop or, you know, something that was surprising. And we were kind of leaning in the direction of total flop because we just imagine all these young guys who it's not even that they really care about the electoral result. It's more of sort of like a performative, you know, this guy's an influencer and I like this influencer versus I actually think he's going to be governor of the state of Florida. So I'm sure there were many bros in Florida who kind of liked him but didn't even bother to, like, register to vote, let alone go out and vote for this guy. Or by the way, they maybe don't want him to be an elected official, but they find him like to be a compelling Internet personality, which is a difference. I think it's I think it's worth pointing out that I mean, you mentioned all the like just blatantly racist, like race baiting crap he was doing. I think it's fair to deem his views genuinely anti-Semitic, even though that word gets thrown way too much in terms of the way he was. He was critiquing Israel. But he's also just a total shapeshifter. To your point, people are digging up old Jubilee clips of him. He was in the Jubilee versus Destiny, sounding completely different than how he sounds today. So anyway, I think between him and we can talk about the Randy Fine versus Dan Bilzerian race, got to be one of the most loathsome contests in human history between the two of those individuals. You could see, I guess, the limits of gripperism as an actual political force in the Republican Party at this point. However, you have to say with young Republicans, this has a lot of appeal. And that is something that the party is going to have to grapple with quite a bit over the years. Well, I do want to say, I mean, I don't think 10 percent is nothing. And we were we were just batting around yesterday what it might look like. And I was vacillating between like either 2 percent or 20 percent. And I was thinking it would be one or the other. 10 percent is absolutely not nothing at all. And one of the things that's worth looking at here is Ryan McComb of Vote Hub looked at the precincts and showed that Byron Donald's dominated Florida's oldest precincts. Now, it's the chart says vote share in the August Republican primary for governor group by average adult age of precinct residents. The precinct where they're grouping it with under 35, Fishback was up at about 31 percent. Now, that's still a minority. Collins, between Collins and Donald, Byron Donald's, they were over 50 percent. So, Fishback, 30 percent. When it was 35 to 45, 14 percent. 45 to 55, he's at 11 percent. And then 55 and up, 6.9 percent. We're curious to be we'd be curious to hear who those like 70-year-old Florida voters casting their ballots for James Fishback were. But those under 35 precincts averaged by Vote Hub, 30 percent. So, again, hardly nothing, hardly insignificant. That's something for the GOP to certainly grapple with. Yeah, no doubt about it. Should we get into this Randy Fine situation here? We must. Because there was there's a lot going on there. So, let's put the results up first. Randy Fine, who is the most repellent, bigoted person, I would say, in the United States Congress, and that is a very, very high bar at this point, was victorious in his primary against another extreme bigot, Dan Bilzerian, put B6A up on the screen here. We can see the results. Very easy victory, 57 percent to 18.7 percent. Now, there was something a little bit weird that happened here, which is the first results that came out actually had Bilzerian within range. He was at like, I don't know, just under 40 percent. It was like a 40-60 kind of a race. And I was like, oh, interesting. What's going on here? It must have been a mistake because then those were taken down and there was a correction. Of course, Bilzerian is seizing on this to say this was definitely rigged. They took the vote. They took the vote. They took the vote. They took the vote. They took my votes away, et cetera. But in any case, appears to have been a big victory here for big Randy Fine. Earlier in the day, however, let's put B6 up on the screen. He was out door knocking and was waiting for someone to answer and, you know, standing around, unmistakable. This is someone's ring camera footage. Body so tea, you don't even need to see the face to know who this is. And here he is rifling through mail of whoever's doorstep he's on here. Why? I couldn't tell you. But that is extremely creepy. And it is also a federal crime. So I don't know what's going on there with that, Emily. But if I was that homeowner, I would definitely be looking into what I could do legally to pursue some sort of avenue here. I don't know. I'm just glad that he was getting some exercise, Crystal. That's very kind of you. It's good to see. It's good to see. Now, Hakeem Jeffries went after Dan Bilzerian and said the hateful campaign being run by Dan Bilzerian in Florida is blatantly anti-Semitic and shocks the conscience people of goodwill, regardless of political affiliation, must reject his vile attacks on the Jewish community. This cannot and will not stand. And then we should also. Which is true. I mean, Bilzerian is blatantly anti-Semitic, you know, flirts with, you know, rehabbing Hitler. It's really gross stuff, right? This is not a borderline, like he said, from the river to the sea. This is he. I don't think he would even deny the level of anti-Semitism that he brings to the table. That's kind of his whole thing. So, yes, Dan Bilzerian is gross and a bigot. It was kind of bigot on bigot in this particular Republican primary. Let's put the next element up on the screen. Randy Fine, many will remember, posted once, if they force us to choose, the choice between dogs and Muslims is not a difficult one. So that's a big one. That was the state of the race for Republicans. Called for, called for nuking Gaza, let them all starve. Just so many Islamophobic, blatantly bigoted posts. You could not even keep track of them. And look, again, fine for Hakeem Jeffries to call out Dan Bilzerian. I think that's entirely warranted. Where is the condemnation of Randy Fine, who is not only an equally bigoted person, openly and proudly so, but also has been an opposition of power to act on those bigoted inclinations. So, yeah, just very disturbing race here between one individual who hates all Muslims, another individual who hates all Jews. And pretty gross to have that be a dividing line in a political contest, but may not be the last time that we see that particular dynamic. And before we move on, I do just want to note, there was a candidate in this race who came in at 13.5% named Aaron Baker, who Ryan and I interviewed about a year ago. He was a contract. In the area who was disgusted by Randy Fine's bigotry, got into the race a normal guy. And so listen, 13.5%, if Dan Bilzerian hadn't been in the race, and I'm sure, I mean, Bilzerian right now with 99% of the votes in is at 18.7%. So higher than Fishback, significantly higher than Fishback, almost double Fishback's vote total percentage. But that's unfortunate because if there had been more room for Aaron, I mean, he was, he was really, he was literally just a normal guy who was trying to get involved. People can go back and watch that interview. Still 13.5%, you know, for having basically no money. I say good for you, Aaron Baker. And not being an influencer with like a national brand and name. For Gen Z. Remember when you guys did that interview? I was gonna say for Gen Z, they may not know the Bilzerian lore, but Crystal, when we were younger in the heyday of Instagram, when Instagram was new to us, we were like, oh, we're gonna do this. We're gonna do this. and the word "influencer" was still a vague term That boomers were unaware of. Dan Bilzerian was not political at all. He was just a dude who was like flying around on private planes with guns and naked women and was like one of the most popular people on Instagram, period. And like kind of very famous. Yeah, indeed. So there you go. I guess all of that gets you 18% versus Randy Fine. So one of the two very odious individuals very likely headed back to Congress because it was it's a very Republican district. So even in a year like this, I don't think that there's much chance that Randy Fine is going down. The best price for you two years ago. Might not be the best today. Nothing went wrong. The math just moved. Insurify dot com. There are hundreds of hotel resorts, pools, and spas and private beaches that you can enjoy. So just go to resortpass.com, choose your resort, choose your day. Once you post your daycation, people are going to ask where you are. Go to resortpass.com slash almostfamous and use the promo code almostfamous to get $20 off when you spend $100. That's code almostfamous at resortpass.com slash almostfamous. At Ross, you'll find everything your kids need when they go back to school. From fashion to school supplies to dorm room decor, Ross has it all. Because it isn't just the first day of school for them, it's a new year, a new look, and endless possibilities. Well, let's head over to the Iran conflict. We can put the first element up on the screen. This is from Dropsite. The United Arab Emirates has halted all trade with Iran after a accusation of launching missiles. This happened yesterday. The UAE defense ministry, according to Dropsite, said its air defenses detected two ballistic missiles launched from Iran, the first falling outside its territorial waters and the second within them, with a phone alert also warning residents in the UAE of a, quote, potential missile threat. The UAE foreign ministry then announced it was halting all trade, commercial exchanges, and financial transactions with Iran until further notice, citing regional escalations. Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson said completely rejected the claim that it launched those missiles targeting Emirati territory, calling it contrary to good neighborly relations and damaging to efforts to build trust, regional trust. He urged regional states to avoid quote, baseless accusations against Iran, citing what he called a history of U.S. and Israeli, quote, false flag operations in the region. Now, if we then move on to another major update from yesterday in the New York Times, just to put these two things together, two ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz are attacked. Two ships in the Strait of Hormuz were attacked in recent days, killing at least one sailor, maritime officials said on Tuesday as a declining number of vessels brave the dangerous passageway. Now, you can see in the chart from the New York Times that's up on the screen right now, if you're listening to this, the five-day moving average peaked in late June and has just continued to go back down ever since. So it's at a pretty low level, somewhere between, it looks like it's around 10 ships. The pre-war average, of course, was 130 ships. Meanwhile, Crystal, let's also note a big Washington Post report from yesterday, Pentagon weighing smaller U.S. military presence in Gulf once the Iran war ends. This is a piece that reports the Pentagon is evaluating its military footprint in the Middle East in an early sign of the Iran war's potential to transform the U.S. presence in the region. According to eight people, including officials and others familiar with the matter, one of the key areas the Defense Department is assessing is whether to pull back troops from the Persian Gulf, where America's large overseas military bases have been battered by months of Iranian strikes, two people familiar with the ongoing analysis said. So that as ships through the Strait of Hormuz being attacked and UAE says that a missile, two missiles, were launched towards the territory, no sign, no sign of de-escalation in Site Crystal, but of course that is apparently the same story every single day now. This Washington Post story is very interesting with them acknowledging that they're considering totally changing the basing strategy through the region. Of course it has a little bit of a vibe of like, you can't fire me, I quit, where we were we may not have a lot of options for going back into the region, not only because of Iran's demonstrated ability to destroy our bases throughout the region, but also those Gulf Arab allies that were previously hosting us are not going to be really eager to welcome us back in with open arms, given that rather than demonstrating that our positions there served as a protective shield, they made those countries targets. So I'm not sure that they were going to be really open to allowing us to come back and rebuild our bases and reestablish the positions that we had previously, but word of the point, really doesn't make sense to do so at this point anyway, given how badly that basing strategy has been revealed to be a failure and create a lot, a lot of vulnerabilities. Even before the war started, before we started the war, we pulled a lot of service members from those bases. You know, we routinely have something like 40,000 troops stationed throughout the region. We pulled a lot of those from those bases, had them housed in civilian hotels, which is, you know, not really a moral, ethical thing to do, but in any case, because we recognize that there was a lot of vulnerability there, but I don't think anyone knew just how much and how much damage the Iranians would be able to exact against us in the region. So in any case, I found it very interesting, this leak to the Washington Post that, oh, we're thinking about maybe changing our strategy here. Not, we've been humiliated and forced out of this region at the point of a gun, basically the barrel of a gun and are going to have to retreat to whatever we can get away with here from here on out. Yeah, and worth noting this NBC News report as well, which NBC News says they got their hands on government documents from Europe and then they were verified by a Western official that show Russia is shipping explosives to Iran to bolster its missile and drone arsenal in the U.S. war. That wouldn't entirely surprise me if it's true, Crystal. The sourcing, though, is worth, I guess, pausing on. They have European government documents that a Western official verified. That does seem like it could be a piece of well-placed propaganda to get people more interested in the conflict or to gin up more of an appetite for the war. It's not going to work. Yeah, it could also be, this could be a sort of Ukrainian-planted intel op as well of, like, see, the Russians, they're not only against us, they're against you directly in Iran. They're helping your adversary here. So there's all kinds of people who would have all sorts of incentives to plant this intel and push it out to NBC News. So we have to take all of these things with a grain of salt. To your point, though, it also wouldn't shock me if it's true. Clearly, you know, the Russians do have an interest in bogging us down in Iran and getting us to expend our munitions. And our interceptors and have our bases destroyed and be completely preoccupied there so that we can't help much on the Ukrainian or broader European front. So they certainly would have motivations for, you know, having this level of partnership with Iran as well. And there have been some indications as well that they've helped with some of the Iranian targeting, although I think Iran is also fairly capable in terms of their own ability to identify targets for attack. Yeah. Now, you wanted to also discuss this Financial Times piece, soaring diesel prices rip across U.S. economy. Not as a surprise to anybody hearing it because you're living it. A surge in diesel prices, the FT reports, is dealing a powerful blow to industrial America, pushing up costs for businesses and consumers across the U.S. ahead of midterm election. The pump elections, the pump price of diesel hit a $5.47 a gallon on Tuesday, approaching its all-time high of $5.82 a gallon. Look at how close that is to the all-time high. $5.47 heading to the all-time high potentially of $5.82 at some point as wars in the Middle East and Europe hobble production and throttle global supplies. Prices have jumped 8% in the past month, while the gap between the cost of diesel and crude oil, known as the crack spread, has hit a record high in recent days in a sign of the deepening supply shock. The price surge has driven out costs for truckers and farmers that are set to ricochet through the broader economy, reigniting inflation and squeezing already thinly stretched American consumers. Yes, people know, obviously, that when diesel prices go up, that ripples throughout the rest of the economy. That is something that has all kinds of downstream consequences. And so, again, just the all-time high is $5.82 a gallon. Right now, yesterday, $5.47 a gallon. and crystal. Wow. Yeah. And so what we're feeling at the pump in terms of regular gasoline, there is a much higher price being paid for diesel. And yes, we have all learned through the COVID inflationary period just how much of an impact that has. So even if somehow a miracle occurred and the Strait of Hormuz opened and the war ended and there was peace reigned throughout the world, we are going to be dealing with the supply shocks and the bottlenecks from what has already been done for months, if not years to come. Food prices are going to go up. I was reading farmers who are facing foreclosure now because think of the double whammy they're facing, double whammy at least because they're also dealing with a lot of climate problems. But you have not only the increased cost of diesel, which all the farm equipment of course runs on, but increased costs of fertilizer as well thanks to this war. Then I've already come up with a triple whammy here. Then you've got the tariffs, which really dramatically impacted them as well. And you can see the political nexus of this very clearly. I think it's entirely likely Democrats win. Certainly the governorship in Iowa Senate is definitely on the table as well because this is a rural farming state. Farmers have been extremely hard hit and they've had it. So whereas in Trump 1.0, they were willing to put up with the tariffs. I think they understood that there was a rationale behind it that maybe in the long run would in order to everyone's benefit. And I think there was a kind of a willingness to sacrifice there some on behalf of a president that they truly believed in. Here we are many years down the road and it's just one thing after another thing after another thing. And they're at their wits end in terms of the family farmer to the extent that that exists even exists anymore after big ag has taken over so much market share in, you know, in the farming world. So in any case, this is really, really hitting farmers hard. But of course, it's going to show up in all of our budgets as food costs continue to climb and cost of basically everything is impacted by diesel because this is the primary mode of shipping across the country. So definitely one to pay attention to. And we talked yesterday, Sagar and I, about the diesel crack spread, which is just an indication of two things. Number one, that the market is completely screwed up and refining capacity is pushed to the top. Number two, there's a bad storm that takes down a refiner. Let's say Ukraine continues to hit Russian refinery capacity. Let's say one of the states that are war torn in Africa has a huge refining issue. We've seen some of that as well. Any additional strain really is just going to push that system to its breaking point. So the pressure continues to mount here with obviously no end in sight. And a lot of the political horizon having basically run out now for Trump at this point, and we're going to see what happens in the midterm elections or just around the corner. Yeah. And obviously the memorandum of understanding expired with nothing else coming from it. Now, Trump did push back the Canadian tariffs. He said that they're continuing to negotiate. That was supposed to be what yesterday. But he posted late on True Social that he was postponing the tariffs because they were in good negotiations. Folks may remember about a month ago when he threatened those massive retaliatory tariffs on Canada. Looks like that's not going to happen, at least as he said. So the numbers that came out last Wednesday, again, this was a war that was pitched as, you know, a two to four week bombing run, basically, as one U.S. senator told me back in the winter or the early spring. U.S. inflation declined slightly last month as the cost of gas and grocery slipped, though prices are still rising more quickly than before the Iran war, posing challenges for the White House as the midterm elections near. Consumer prices increased 3.4 percent in July from a year ago, down slightly from 3.5 percent in June. So what was, again, kind of as a decline in the growth of inflation is still 3.4 percent, which puts Trump in territory. I believe it was 3.2 percent when he took over from Biden. It may have even been lower from that. I would have to go check back. But it was 2.4 percent before the Iran war. So it puts him in territory that's well beyond where he was literally right before this started. And as a reminder, we were just talking earlier in the block about two ships being hit in the Strait of Israel in recent days as well, with about a daily average of 10 ships passing through the Strait. That was 130 before the war. So, Crystal, just an abject disaster, however you look at it. Yeah. And let's take a look at how the Iranians are responding, at least rhetorically, to the current state of affairs. This is some statements from Ghalibaf that Dropsite wrote up, we can put up on the screen. He says that Hormuz will not reopen until the U.S. honors the Islam Abad memorandum. That's a memorandum of understanding. To be honest with you, I feel like that is a bit of a walk back from some of the even more maximalist demands that have been made from the Iranians in recent weeks. But in any case, he says until the U.S. implements its commitments under the memorandum, including lifting the blockade, releasing frozen assets, lifting oil sanctions, ending threats and military operations on all fronts and the other agreed conditions, the Strait will not reopen. He portrayed the memorandum as a really defeat, saying Iran's military pressure and diplomacy reinforce one another because Washington breached the agreement. He said the military field must again support diplomacy with action. The pause in fighting, he added, let Iran rebuild defensive capabilities and prepare to impose a heavier defeat in response to further U.S. aggression. He also talks here about living cost, how Washington is trying to weaponize inflation and economic hardship. He urges the government to expand a better future for Iran. He also says the U.S. military should implement electronic credits for essential food, protect families purchasing power and avoid policies that could intensify public anger. He also says that Iran needs to reduce consumption, but rejected higher prices on gas inside Iran and also warned rival factions against exploiting wartime pressures to begin campaigning or mobilizing supporters against one another. In any case, the key part here to me is where he says the military field must be support diplomacy with action, and that's what he's talking about. He's talking about the U.S. military being willing to impose a heavier defeat in response to further U.S. aggression. There was a big piece that we discussed yesterday in the show, I think from the Wall Street Journal, about the "hidden plan" or secret plan for Iran to go on the offensive in the war. I don't think it's secret if you're listening to their words whatsoever. It's a question whether it's bluster or not, but there is a lot of logic to the idea that they see that we're in very precarious position politically, economically, and with our mission stockpile, with the morale of our troops stationed throughout the region, and certainly our sailors on board those, you know, "Hell Cruises," as Tucker put it, on those carriers. So they know that we're in a really particularly vulnerable and weak place right now. They also know that the game we want to play is to slowly squeeze the life out of them. Why would they just sit there and take it when they do have other options? So that's why I would not be surprised if these threatening words from them are not just bluster at this point, but that it could be action. And that's why also I took great interest in the allegations from the UAE yesterday that missiles had been fired in their direction. Yeah. And obviously, Iran knows that Trump right now is trying to get affordability to be a slightly better or neutralize that issue for Republicans because he has elections coming up. So that is certainly weighing in in their strategy as well. No question about it. Nothing went wrong. The math just moved. Insurify dot com. Some people use ChatGPT to answer questions. Others use it to get real work done. With ChatGPT Work, you bring the goal, plus real inputs like briefs, notes, files, feedback, data, and project plans. It can help turn them into an analyst, tracker, deck outline, prototype, or workflow you can review and keep shaping. You stay in control, giving direction and choosing the final output. Put ChatGPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects. Get started at ChatGPT.com by selecting Work Mode. Available on Plus and Pro plans. I love the little everyday moments with my dog, especially treat time. But dental care? Not always so fun. Until we found Greeny's Dental Treats. 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