7 Wide Receivers You Are Drafting with Insane Confidence

(upbeat music) This happens every single year. We watch 18 weeks of football, go through the draft for agency, and then reset our memory and draft players much higher or lower than where they finished this past season. Is it right? Is it wrong? That's what this episode is all about. Seven plus water severs that you all, yes you are drafting with insane confidence. The premise here, Hayden, we're gonna name a bunch of water severs who are selected much earlier than where they finished last year and vice versa. So let's start with that group. Okay, and the lead off man is Justin Jefferson, who is drafted as the water severs six right now over an underdog and finished last year as the water seaver 37. Does that make sense to you? - Yeah, I think that Justin Jefferson's going to ball out again. I think Kyle and Murray is definitely a good enough quarterback to get the ball to Justin Jefferson and from 2022 to 2024, he had the most PPR points per game at 20. And most of you guys are drafting in full PPR. And that's if we remove the Josh Jobs and Jiren Hall games, he's averaging 100 yards per game. So like, it's really just came down to how bad J. Jim McCarthy was, which makes me feel very confident that Kyle and Murray is going to easily win this job but think more or less they've already come out and said that. And Justin Jefferson, nothing's changed about Justin Jefferson, nothing's changed about Kevin O'Connell and Kyle and Murray wants to throw the ball back shoulders down field passes. That's what Kyle and Murray wants to do. It's what Kevin O'Connell wants to do and it's what Justin Jefferson is so good at. So like, I think we're just going to like throw out 2025. Get in the baseline from the other seasons. Could Kyle and Murray be as good as Kurt Cousins? Of course. And I'm drafting him in the first round. - Yeah, I mean, he finishes the water seaver three in points per game with Sam Darnold. Then finishes the water seaver five in points per game with Kurt Cousins and Nick Mullins. So it was nothing in terms of Kevin O'Connell putting him in a position of successor failure last year that led him to the water seaver 37. It was all about the quarterback play. Like that was the big change here. Like, again, pointing out some things that Reeves noted. He commanded 30% of his team targets last year, water seaver four, 39% of the team's air yards. That's water seaver five. And yet that equal to water seaver 37 season because of environment. I actually went back and watched those Nick Mullins games that they played together in terms of homework for this because I thought, okay, we know what he did with Darnold and we know we did with Cousins. What can he even do with a quarterback at a tier below that but also perform better than Jay-Jama McCarthy? That was my mindset heading into that. That may be stupid transitional properties. But that's what I'm thinking. - No, I like it. - And what I learned is that a quarterback in order to have success in this offense and especially success with Justin Jefferson is you have to throw in the tight windows. You have to stand tall versus pressure. You need to play on time and you need to trust the play throwing with anticipation into zone windows. If you do all that stuff, then you're gonna have success and you're gonna have Justin Jefferson just making freaking plays for you. And simply put, Jay-Jama McCarthy could not do that last season. Kyle Murray and we'll talk about a water seaver that was attached to him last season. It can be up and down with some of that stuff in terms of standing tall and not falling away from throws and playing on time. But I also believe that KOC, while the three names that we mainly mentioned there are like pure pocket, read it out, players and throw with anticipation will also accentuate the strengths that Calamari does have and does bring to the table. And I think obviously Justin Jefferson's talent is moldable and feasible enough that he is absolutely worth this end of the first round draft pick that we're spending on. - And Kyler, he has had 88 yards per game seasons with the Andre Hopkins another 80 yard season with the Andre Hopkins training. Riot had 72 yards per game. So like Kyler Murray for his flaws has elevated players to like really high end degrees. Last year was really bad with Marvin Harris and Michael Wilson and Trayn McBride obviously. But you go back and watch even the first couple games of the season last year. And I mean, if Marvin Harris and Kotha football, like the stat lines would look a whole lot better and obviously Justin Jefferson will. So I think that Kyler Murray, I think this is gonna be like the floor and I think it's actually a very similar situation to when Sam Darnold got with Kevin O'Connell and that was the floor of Sam Darnold. And here comes Kyler Murray and it's gonna be an excellent season to the point. I think Kyler Murray is like the sleeper quarterback if you will, who has a chance to be a top five fantasy quarterback that gets drafted like quarterback 12. This is a great environment. This has been the case for like four or five seasons in a row. - It really is as simple as if you trust the environment and don't get concerned with everything flying around you and just make the throws that you planned all week on time and in rhythm. Then you're gonna have success in this offense. And so again, it comes down to the KOC, Josh Brickown, coaching of it all here with Kyler a little bit. But I am believing that it is possible and it's gonna be much closer to the Y-3 for six outcome and maybe even ahead of that versus the Y-3 for 37 points per game outcome. I think that last year. All right, another one and another big topic here. He finished as the Y-3 for 45 last year. But now he's being drafted as the Y-3 for 31. This is Brian Thomas Jr. What are your expectations for 2026? - I think it's gonna be pretty volatile week to week because it does seem like he's gonna be the vertical element in this offense. I got him ranked Y-3 for 30. So I think he should be ranked ahead of where he finished. Last year, I got him pretty much in line in ADP here. I think that Parker Washington is gonna get a lot of like the Gimmy looks, Kobe Myers is gonna run across the middle and get drilled by safeties and linebackers. And then Brian Thomas will have some yak moments but for the most part will be used down the field. In half PPR, half PPR at Bestball, we don't mind that in full PPR redraf leagues. Might be a little bit frustrating for us, but Brian Thomas has been lighting it up in camp. If you go read Shipley, he's been like one of the MVP's of the offense. Liam Cohen's talked glowingly about him and if we zoom back out, wider receivers who drafted in the first round with his speed who went from, who went to LSU who had his rookie season, these are some of the best wider receivers in the NFL. I know last year was a complete disaster, playing through multiple injuries, was not playing confident over the middle, obviously the timing, everything was bad and all those narratives were true. And still, he's one of the most talented wider receivers on the football field. Him watching or him pulling away from the DB's, it's ridiculous to watch. So I think for the most part, I'm taking an optimistic look here. I don't think he's going to have 95 receptions in the season though. Truly one of the fastest players in the league. He ranks up there in GPS every single year. It's funny. Typically when we talk about disaster seasons, it means the team also had a disaster year and that's the exact opposite. Like the Jaguars were freaking awesome in terms of expectations on previous years and then Brian Thomas was like the let down piece of it all. You mentioned John Shipley, we're a fan favorite of John Shipley here. This is what he wrote. The Jaguar scheme focused more and intermediate passing last season than it didn't any other year in Lawrence's career's quarterback and the Jaguar tried to force the issue with Thomas in the department a year ago. They entered the year with plans to funnel the entire passing game through him but drops for an issue over the middle of the field until they adjusted his role by the second half of the season. And I totally agree. I mean, you can watch that Bengals tape if you want to, but I watched all 30 targets that he had over the middle of the field and he was tentative. It was kind of Jordan Tyson-ish in some ways where he would like fall down after the catch, alligator armate, not come up with these big time catches. And that just comes down to his preseason injury and it mentally impacted him through the entire year. Now in that absence and what we know about Liam Cohen's often stating back to the time with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is like the crossing routes over the middle of the field and the intermediate portion is the most consistent element here. And so in BTJ's absence, that became Jacobi Myers. That became Parker Washington who shiply projects as the player who's going to lead this team in receiving this year. It is just fascinating to me that in year three, here we are, and this is a player who is at the one-two turn last year and finishes the Y2C for 45. And now we're back somewhat in the middle but not really as Y2C for 31. And it's kind of tough for me to totally know what the outcome is here other than it's probably going to be the more high variance downfield shot-ish stuff as you brought up initially. - Yeah, I think the other big thing with Jacksonville is the two tight end looks. And if that's going to be more of a balanced kind of offense, I do think that Brian Thompson will be on the field for those two wider sewers sets, especially if you're going to do a bunch of play action deep shots, like you have to have somebody that can stretch the field. And obviously he's one of the best field structures in the game. So I do think that he's going to be a near full-time player in the offense. I think Jacobian, Parker and Travis Hunter, those guys will rotate. That is not me and Brian Thomas is going to lead this team and receptions is certainly possible. But I do think the 100-yard games, there will be many of them for Brian Thomas this year. It might be difficult for us to predict. Half-PPR basketball, I really like the price and then we'll see where he is in the YAHU drafts. And I think that I will have some interest there just betting on. Year three player, really fast, really good prospects. Sensation rookie season, just buying the debt. - I do want to bring up. He was going 12th overall this time last year. Is that 12th overall player still there? - It would require him to work over the middle, like you said. It's a very important part of this offense, like thinking about Chris Godwin and those type of guys. You have to be able to do that. Last year was really bad at it. I think in theory, like three years from now, we can say he's a full-round-shoot player. It's possible. I don't think it's most likely that's possible. - Yeah, I think it's not impossible, but closer to that. in that exactly what I said and what we heard all last offseason was that the passing game is going to funnel through BTJ and it makes sense after his rookie year and that just doesn't have to be the case now because at that time Parker Washington had not broken out. They had not made the chipmire's trade. You know, they had taken Travis Hunter but we didn't know exactly what his role would be on offense. We found out in the opening four weeks of the year that it was somewhat minimal and scripted and designed. So I think they kind of got to a point where Brian Thomas Jr showed that he should not have the passing game funnel through him. That doesn't mean he's going to be unproductive and we also know that the seasons can be very freaking long and he also showed extreme talent during his rookie year. So the upside is even higher than this Y2C for 31 outcome here too. I mean, Alex Pierce was a field stretcher only and then this last season did a whole lot more in the other parts of the field. There is player development that happens. George Pickens was a one dimensional guy and then the last year started showing more. So I think the baseline case is like he will be better working over the middle than he was the previous season. I also think that Brian Thomas on some of the screens and remember some of the little jet plays that they would have with Brian Thomas like shallow crosses as a rookie. He would catch this thing and be 60 yard touchdowns and it looked like an alien out there. So like I do think there's some of that potential in Brian Thomas. I think he clearly has the most upside of anybody in this Jacksonville offense at ADP. I just like you said, you can't be confident it's going to happen. Sorry to keep harping on this, but I do think it's again such a drastic conversation that we had a year ago. He was being selected around names like Puganakua, I'm under our St. Brown, Drake London, AJ Brown at Y2C. Are we at the point now when we talk about high variance, more of a downfield threat open it up for everyone else that he is more heading into this year in the vein of James and Williams and like the peak of what we thought like Gabe Davis could be as it's like week to week roller coaster. Have we just changed the narrative around Brian Thomas Jr. that much in one off season? Yeah, that's I mean, I think that's probably a fair fair point. Like the guys I haven't right next to is car and LT Alec Pierce, Quinton Johnson, Jordan Addison, Marvin Harris and like those guys are all to me. It's the same type of player. I think Brian Thomas is the most talented of all of those guys. That's why I rank him the highest, but he's not like as well rounded as you know Mike Evans, Devonte Adams, Christian Watts and who I think have just established that they're doing it. So I think that we've grouped these guys together properly and then it's just like all right, we're flipping coins. You're three breakout like how real is this? Like him versus you know, Marvin Harris and Parker Washington, like those guys, I do think that his his athletic ceiling is like so much higher than those guys that I want to draft him. Yeah, but at the same time when he was on the field with all those guys last year, his target chair was much lower, albeit his targets were further down the field. I would love a Christian Watson like trajectory for him. That'd be amazing. You know, we saw the early parts of Christian Watson's career where he was hitting on all the high variant stuff and he was running extremely hot. And I think you could argue with Mac Jones that was kind of happening with Brian Thomas Jr. a little bit during his year. And then what we saw last year for Christian Watts and albeit off injury was much more of a complete player, a third down presence. Someone ran out routes and plays at the sticks much more often. And if BTJ can kind of you know, develop into that too, I think it's a possibility and that would be awesome. So just at his ADP, are you kind of in or are you kind of out? Yeah, yeah, no, I am. I just, it was more of like a theoretical, entire conversation about him right now. Now, you know me, I'm drafting a lot of Christian Watson, who is in that area. Roman Dunezay is right before him, Cardinal Tate. I'm drafting. And then it's BTJ and then it's Tyler Warren. So this is again, one of these cluster of pick areas where I want almost all these names. And then I get to other sections of drafts where I don't want any of the players in about a total of six stretch. And then I love all those like borderline elite quarterbacks that get drafted right now. So I think like among wider sievers, I like him where he's being ranked. I think versus, you know, the some of these quarterbacks and stuff, I think I can be swung. This is in half PPR. Obviously full PPR things kind of change a little bit. So I'm really excited. I think there's still a ton of potential with Brian Thomas. And I do think we could look back and be like, yeah, it was probably his collarbone being on sideways was the reason why he didn't want to get hit over the middle. And I think we would say, yeah, that makes sense. And once again, he is the first Jaguar's wide receiver off the board. Okay, before we go any further, if you like this conversation, hit that subscribe button. Our entire goal is summers to help you win your fancy football league and, you know, enjoy watching our content along the way. So we have hit 173,000 subscribers. We need to hit 175,000 in order to hit 200,000. That's how math works. That's how numbers work. And that's where this channel is going. So thank you all who watch and hit subscribe because it is totally free to all of you. All right, let's jump back up the board. And let's talk to Vante Smith. He finished last year as the wide receiver 31 now being drafted as the wide receiver 11. Obviously, we can say, whoa, AJ Brown's gone. Of course, that's why he's jumping from wide receiver 31 to wide receiver 11. I want you to a bit deeper than that. Why should this ADP still make sense for us? Okay. So he had a really good rookie season. And then since then, he's had five games without AJ Brown. He's the wide receiver three in yards per game. That's at 89 yards per game on wide receiver 10 targets. That's nine per game. So we're talking about a very small sample size here. But in that sample size, Devante Smith proves that he's been one of the best wide receivers. And it's only just been about the target volume. I feel pretty optimistic about the new OC that they bring in. It's going to be a lot of the packer stuff, which is not that dissimilar to what Jalen Hertz is running. Jalen Hertz wants to be letting him play like Jordan love down the football field. I think that's very good for Devante Smith Smith to play inside and outside. He's one of the best wide receivers in the football league. And I just think that the targets are actually going to come with him. So obviously, there's some risk just because of how bad the Jalen Hertz season was this last season. But I think that the this is going to be easily the number one season he's ever had in targets in all categories. And I view him as a quality pick in the third round. I can't go any higher than that. But I think where he's being drafted is totally fine. Without Ajay Brown in the field, as you pointed out, he's had 37% of the team's targets, 2.36 yards per round run. Now you could say, well, when Ajay Brown is out, they didn't have a talent like McCye Lemon on the roster, maybe even not like a Dunntavian Wix level talent at the ones you've probably too. So now they do. Now they have even more players in the Eli Stowers and other ones that are other options here for Devon Tey Smith. I mean, it is like clockwork though, where news that we all expect to happen still impacts ADP somehow in the public. I mean, he jumped from the 31st overall player to the 28th overall player. And that made him the wide receiver 14 to now the wide receiver 11 just based on Ajay Brown getting traded when we all knew Ajay Brown was going to get traded. Yeah. It's less to me about Devon Tey Smith and more just about a functional offense like the more this running game can get going and doesn't have to be to the degree that 2024 was. But let's get back to, you know, league average in a lot of ways too in terms of success rate, explosive plays, all that stuff. Then that just changes the math in the passing game. And what Jalen Hertz has shown in the past is when you change the math in terms of the back end and single high safeties, then he is going to generate explosive plays down the field and Devon Tey Smith, even in games that Ajay Brown has played has looked like the better wide receiver in certain matchups because he is a ball winner. He plays huge. He plays so long. And if he gets one on one coverage, he's going to be there. Go to man in that department. So we can talk about the change in the offense, according to all that stuff. I am so focused on just having a good rushing attack and how that's going to impact the passing game success. That to me, that is like how this entire thing is going to get much closer to the top level offenses that we've seen the Eagles in somewhat recent years. Last day, and remember Eagles last season, Lane Johnson, this is a big chunk of it. Landon Dickerson nearly had a retire and you watch Landon Dickerson. He's back. He was not nearly the same athlete. And I think you just can tie it back. How many snaps? How many runs they had during that that Super Bowl run? The following season, their body just did not have enough time to recover. And hopefully this year after not making it far in the playoffs at all, that it should just be healthier right now. And I think that's a huge deal for a quarterback that plays like Jalen Hertz does. One more who's being selected much earlier than when you finished last year. And I can't wait for this conversation. That's Josh Downs of the Indianapolis Colts. Finish last year is the Widers here for 56 in points per game. I also remember where the Colts finished offensively. And now he's being drafted as the Widers he ver 43. Where are we at with Josh Downs and how his role can grow and if the Colts can maintain their level of success like they did last year? I mean, there's really no excuses for him to not play more. Just looking at the depth chart, you remove Michael Pittman and all of a sudden, it needs to be Josh Downs and we got a report. To honor the days of Downs being used as a slot receiver, Stic and Plans to move Downs all across the formation, which he typically already does, giving ample opportunities to play on the outside and exploit mismatches against opposing defenses. Downs was seen on the outside plenty of times already at mandatory mini camp, making plays no matter which quarterback was targeting the offense that comes from sports illustrated. There's at least some evidence that he's gonna be playing in two ways. wider receiver sets. And if he does play in two wider receiver sets, this ADP is just straight up wrong, especially because Alec Pierce is very clearly in the middle of a rehab for a surgery he did not want to have and was a little bit delayed. So if Alec Pierce has a step back, big news for Josh Downs, if Josh Downs just plays two wider receiver sets, that's big news. If we get both those things together, he's going to be one of the best wider receiver picks out there. And he's not like the traditional like wider receiver, like slot wider receiver, like he makes some serious plays down the football field, I'm sure that you're going to bring those up. I mean, I want to believe in Josh Downs so much. The passing game revolved around him at UNC when he was attached to Drake May during that time, right? And he was like a slot plus receiver. He was winning down the field, he was winning in isolation, he was great in some coverage too. But obviously at his frame, at his size at 59-171, as soon as you enter the NFL, you are pigeon-hold as a player because everyone does it. What I am afraid of, and I went back, you know, Reeb's has talked about this, he Josh Downs is only around 33 routes in one or two receiver sets in his entire career so far. Yeah, not good. So I didn't want to go and watch those 30-thousand routes because he might not even be targeting those options. Instead, last year, because this is, you know, a Daniel Jones and Shane Psychon operation, I went back and watched his 16 targets listed as an outside wide receiver. Unfortunately, even when you're listed as an outside receiver, sometimes that means you are motioned into a stack. Other times, it also means a tied-in to our wider receiver is motioned outside of you so the leverage changes at the time of the snap. And so it's not true like on the ball, pure outside to wider receiver stuff. And he's still going to move around even if he earns two wider receiver things. I was a bit nervous about what I saw just because it still felt like in those moments, Shane Psychon didn't want for him to operate as like a real wide receiver. He had a 5.48 odd. It was, you know, some screen passes. It was speedouts. It really was nothing, nothing down the field. So on paper, he should know that or what, get two wide receivers set stuff. That is the first part of clear. And even if he clears that, I think this ADP easily is undervaluing him. I do have some level of question that he's going to be highly successful with that. But the same time, I believe in him. And I want him to be successful because I do think he is maybe one of the more not overlooked, but underused wide receivers across the league. But at the same time, I also will know why it didn't work if it doesn't work. Yeah, I mean, he's he's drafted ahead of where he was this last season rightfully so. But I do think there is a just ceiling to his game because of the size. And you know, we've kind of hope that Downs would kind of grow into this role that we might be getting this year. Jeet and Reed, it's been the same way. So it would not be that surprising if he's not out there for all of them. But like he goes around ahead of Michael Pitman, for example. And we know what Michael Pitman is and how he and we will talk about Michael Pitman here in a moment. He's going ahead of Jacobi Myers who really brought stability to the Jaguars. So it's not like we are getting to me Josh Downs at much of a discount per se like we are still having to invest a premium wide receiver pick in him where there are more stable options around. But I would still take him ahead of someone like Xavier Worthy, for example, who is going to wide receiver spots after him. Could you go up to the depth knockdown and there should be a wide receiver tie. I'm curious because he's the third tight wide receiver slash tight end. So we have Alec Pierce is the second Cole. If you go to the third option, I'm guessing Downs is one of the first third options we're drafting in fantasy. And that makes me a little bit nervous. Just because we're trying to get a lot of things right. So it's Roma Dunez, a Jane Reed and then Josh Downs is the next one. Yeah, my ranking is pretty close in ADP and that's with me assuming that he's going to play a lot more snaps than he ever has. And discounting with the Alec Pierce stuff. It's to me, it's just still hard to get to like the Quinted Johnson upside that's going the round ahead. Like I think that's going to be a full-time player working down the football field in the past first offense. And I'm not sure if we're going to be able to say all those things with Josh Downs. So I like them. Don't love them. Well, you made a great transition for me, which by the way, we've already covered the likes of Latin Maconky who is drafted as the YRC for 17 finishes the YRC for 35. Terra McCorme draft as the YRC for 23 finishes the YRC for 32. Luther Burton draft as the YRC for 21 finishes the YRC for 54. So if you want to hear more about those names, we have them and other videos. So click those and watch them right after this. But you talked about Quint and Johnson. So let's have another one of these conversations because he's the exact opposite. He's drafted much later than where he finished last year where that was as the YRC for 22 in points for game. And now you can get him as the YRC for 38 in drafts. No, I think this is a absolute no-brainer selection. I think just zooming back out with Quint and Johnson, I had him as a second round prospect who needed development. His rookie season was really bad. His last season was certainly better and he was doing real stuff. And then this year, I'm expecting the offense to go from about League average to one of the best in the NFL. And if you go listen to our Reeb's episode, he was talking about Justin Herbert might be today MVP because the Shanahan branch, whenever they have an elite quarterback, they go absolutely crazy. So we've seen the new OC really talk glowingly about Quint and Johnson. Another big point I wanted to bring up is Justin Herbert's footwork has changed where now his left foot is in front, which makes the quick hitting stuff and the offense easier to transition to and it's going to be less really deep dropbacks. I do think Quint and Johnson can be utilized in the yards after the catch roll. To me, he's kind of yak immediately or down the football field and everything in between is kind of lost with Quint and Johnson. I think you can do that with with the McDaniel offense and we've seen that with Tyre Reekiel and Jaylen Wattel like it's kind of not that much in between, but down the football field or underneath and go, I think that he's going to be involved here. So I think Lad and McConkey, Quint and Johnson, all these guys I want to draft, but Quint and Johnson's terrible rookie season, I think has created a discount and I want to predict the future not draft and based on this 2024 numbers. Again, this goes with quarterbacks, this goes with other players. So often their rookie season kind of becomes the pillar that then we judge everything off of, whereas some people just have poor rookie seasons because of a whole bunch of things going around and that was the case here with QJ. He had obvious flaws and he's kind of cleaned up and smoothed out some of his rough edges. There was an awesome clip that you referenced of Mike McDaniel talking to QJ during OTA. He said, "Your drive phase is going to fuck the league up and I want to protect that." "For for, to not see you be comfortable at the top of a stick until August because you have so much drive phase and weight that if you really utilize the drive phase, it's not going to be as clean and 90. And that's what I want. You'll tighten up the turn as it goes, but that your drive phase right now is going to fill the league up and I just want to protect that at all costs." And by that he means that he wants him just running full speed right now and that in August, that's when he's going to clean up the turns and the breaks in his routes, which I thought was really cool, you know, wide receiver coaching, which Mike McDaniel has a history of. He's talked at length about like coaching Andre Johnson when he was this, you know, young skinny guy and how can I give you, you know, more help and more development and how can you trust me? It's just from improvement. Yeah, I mean, Duffin said the second highest scoring team in 2023. So if it reads and what you just said comes into fruition, that season gave us Tyree Kill, the wide receiver one in points per game and Jaylen Wattel, the wide receiver 22 in points per game. So this passing game can get to a point where it supports two startable fantasy wide receivers on a weekly basis. And we're really not having to pay for that. Getting Quentin Johnson outside the top 36 wide receivers at this point. Now we can throw in Trey Harris and what we like about him and maybe the chargers do and all that type of stuff. But if you ask me right now, who are they going to be the two most productive wide receivers on the team? It's lad and it's QJ. And there's a decent chance that both finish as top 26 wide receivers this season. Yeah. And there's a chance that Quentin Johnson outscores lad, depending on the former did last year, like he did last year, you know, like these guys are being completely in like I say this as somebody that's been a Quentin Johnson skeptic since I've watched his film at TCU, which I did not love. It might just not matter. Like we said, it just downfield passing with Quentin Johnson speed and then the yak plays that Quentin Johnson is going to have because of the new OC and that they bet they have both tackles healthy and that'll just allow Justin Herbert to actually read things out like there's a lot to like with Quentin Johnson. And if he had a decent rookie season, he would be priced in the fourth round. Yeah. I think some of the issues last year that he just didn't have stats in certain games. Like he had fewer than 50 yards and half of his games last season, two games with zero catches. You would like to think that was a Greg Roman special. And Mike Mdano is going to get him a bit more involved. But we even know that like again, in Jalen Waddle's Widersheever 22 points per game season, there are some times where it just doesn't work. Like the Widersheever 2-3 territory, it's a roller coaster, you know? Yeah. and that's what we should expect here, no matter what. Yeah, I mean, I went back and watched QJ, just because I want to see what some of the differences were. I still don't think he's going to be an early separator ever, but he does have the stride length and the long speed to pull away an intermediate and deep crossers and those in-breakers. And like that intermediate and in-breaker stuff has actually been a lot of the most successful years in 2023 with the dolphins. Maybe some of that was, you know, to his arm, but like Tyreek and Jalen Waddle, that was their most productive areas of the field. And I really like QJ in some of those routes. Yep, yeah, I would really have like nothing bad to say about this price tag. No, me either. I mean, you really shouldn't and look at this. I mean, ADP has continued to climb up from, sorry, at 94 in Minme overall, up to 80th overall at this point. And then Y3R43 up to Y3R38. And I still think Y3R38 is undervaluing him. I got my Y3R33 right next to Alex Pearson, and Karnell Tate. And it's like really like, who's gonna score more fancy points Quintet Johnson or Karnell Tate? Like I think like true C.M. I'd be like, yeah, it's probably gonna be Quintet Johnson. Wow. All right, let's talk about Michael Pittman. He finished last year on the Colts as Y3R28 in points per game. But right now, you're able to draft him as Y3R48 in points per game. For me, hey, like if you watch him, it's Glance Routes, RPOs, Quick Hitting Slants, Crossers out of tight formations on boot action as well, even screens out of stacks too. And we have said this and we'll repeat it because that's what we're supposed to do when it's a good line. Aaron Rodgers turned DK Metcalf into Michael Pittman Jr. last year. And now he just gets Michael Pittman Jr. in this offense in the areas that Aaron Rodgers loves to throw the football too at his age 40ish season. - Yeah, he's one of the later drafted wide receiver two, so kind of in the middle rounds. And I just think that he's a really strong selection. I don't think that the gap between DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman's all that large in terms of fantasy just because I think DK Metcalf's gonna go back to this downfueled role. And I think that Michael Pittman is gonna do the Michael Pittman stuff, which is what Aaron Rodgers likes. 775 yards, that seems totally appropriate. I don't think we're chasing a ceiling here. To me, he's one of the first wide receivers on your bench. By weeks come, injuries come, and you have to throw him in there and just like praying for nine PPR points. I think that's what he's gonna be able to do. I don't think that Rodgers gonna turn the corner. I think Rodgers is what he is. It's gonna be a balance offense or offensive line rules. But Michael Pittman should be the guy that like on those like, you know, audibles those checks that they want to scrimmage. And Rodgers throws the ball immediately. I think those are gonna more likely go to Michael Pittman this year than the DK Metcalf. Just to outline that comment about turning DK Metcalf into Michael Pittman last year. Last year for DK, less than 20% of his targets were 20 plus yards, 44% of his targets were zero to nine yards. And the career high, 12% of his targets were behind the line of scrimmage. DK had never had a combo like that during his NFL career so far. I mean, his career A dot drop from 14 down to 11 last year. So you're begging for someone to win in the trash in the muck over the middle on these quick hitters, a bit more often. And that's why they make the move for someone with Michael Pittman and gave him more money on top of it. - Yep. - You know? - Yeah. - Now I do wanna say that Michael Pittman did have an awful back injury that he played through in 2024. That was one of the crazier news item and then outcomes that I can remember doing this in Fancy Football where there were reports that he was gonna be shelved for like nine weeks. He missed one week of action and then just played the rest of the year. So the dude is a frickin warrior on the field but I do wanna note that one, we might have seen already the best of Michael Pittman Junior but two, even close to that would make him, I think a consistent option in this. - Yeah, I was not expecting a big ceiling in Pittsburgh offensively. So you can only draft him so high but I do think he's a really solid player. I just think, I think he is exactly what Aaron Rogers likes at this stage. - So. - I think him versus DK Metcalf, it's about a coin flip and I think his presence made me pick DK Metcalf as one of my faves. I forget exactly which episode it was but I had talked negatively on DK Metcalf just because of this point that you're making. - The last name in this group is actually Michael Wilson, a channel favorite, finished last year as the Widers Heaver 24 in points per game and now you're able to draft him as the Widers Heaver 44. Is that right? - Well, I'm nervous about these cardinals because if you look at the Widers Heaver/Titan 3 in the offense, Michael Wilson gets drafted pretty early among Widers Heaver/Titan 3 in the pecking order and we know this team's gonna stink. So that immediately makes me nervous and he broke out without obviously Marvin Harrison. I do think it's like a, I can probably make the argument Michael Wilson's a better Widers Heaver than Marvin Harrison is right this second but you should be expecting Marvin Harrison to take step still 'cause he's a little bit younger than Michael Wilson. I just don't have the confidence that in week one with everybody healthy that he's gonna project well and then when week 10 comes around and Carson vexed the quarterback, like I'm just struggling to see how these guys pay off these ADPs across the board. I like them individually to like some degrees, but man, I just think three cardinals pass catchers by the eighth round, like do we not see how this can go wrong? - We need Jacobean Reset to start for 17 games. - It's not gonna happen. - And it's not gonna happen, you know. He might even start seven games with how this all season is going so far and that's frustrating. I went back and watched early season Michael Wilson compared to later season Michael Wilson 'cause you know we got five games of Kyler as a starter and that was arguably like the worst we've seen of Kyler Murray. He was falling away from throws. It felt like every time he targeted Michael Wilson it was kind of off target either an overthrow or off the frame for a back shoulder and he just wore it and seek it all and he's crossing routes too. And then Frickan Jacobi comes in, the touch, trajectory, the timing of it all seemed like just the perfect fit. Now, you know, he was second among receivers and receptions at 56, second and receiving yards at 775 over the last eight games of last year. We know Marv only played three of those eight games. It was actually a part-time player in those three games. So that plays a part here too. But then the day like unless the Cardinals shock the world this year or not getting 17 or maybe even 12 or maybe even eight games of Jacobi said at this time. So I have more confidence in Michael Wilson which Jacobi said like you, I know that Michael Wilson is good at the game of football. I just don't know if this is gonna be the environment for him to be able to expand that eight games to 17 game sample from the last two years. But is it fair that he's all the way down at Y-T-Sever 44? I guess after he finishes Y-T-Sever 24? - I think it's totally fair. I just don't want him to draft either one of these guys. And I just haven't been drafted in Tremac Bride either. You know, I think Marvins to me like the clearest fade of them just because I don't think he's gonna be a volume hog with Tremac Bride there. And I'm not convinced that he's actually that much better than Michael Wilson and then just put the numbers on it. There was 10 games last year where Marvin Harrison had at least three targets in the games. Michael Wilson in those 10 games, averaged 27 yards per game, his target share in those games was at 13%. His expected points was six half PPR. He actually had five half PPR. That's called the waiver wire. So I'm just worried that, and that's, by the way, the Cardinals last year were first in pass attempts. That might not happen. So I, I'm not gonna draft these Cardinals this year. Like there's, the skill guys are too good for how bad the quarterback situation's gonna be. - We just did an episode with Ron Stewart talking about Jeremiah Love, go and watch that, because that's a slightly different conversation. - Yeah, love's fine. - It's gonna be fine. - Okay, we've covered all those names. There is an interesting section in drafts right now of unsigned veteran wide receivers that are out there and some or all will find teams. Their names are Brandon Ayuk, Debo Samuel, Stefan Diggs, and even Keane Allen. And Keane Allen is somewhat of the latest one with news. I saw a Colt's beat writer say that they could potentially sign Keane Allen, which would dip into our Josh Downs conversation there. That's for sure. - Exactly. - Because Keane and played first in psych and with the LA chargers and quote, "If Pierce's ankle recovery is slow, it makes even more sense." So maybe that's more Alec Pierce insurance than it would be Josh Downs, but I think it would also overlap there a bit more often. Anyways, as we just talked about with the Devonte Smith ADP rise when AJ Brown was traded. If any of these players sign, as soon as they do, they will shoot up draft boards and their ADP will climb instantly. So give thoughts on one or all right now. - How I would rank him would be Diggs Ayuk, Debo Keenan. If they were just signing to all the same team, I thought Diggs season last year was really good. He's going to sign with the team shortly. His legal case is behind him. The NFL is not gonna suspend him and he's going to sign the team instantly. And there's a couple of pretty good landing spots available. I think the chiefs would obviously be one. The Colt's have a starting spot available to him. The commanders do. I think that Ayuk is about to move teams here. I think that he's gonna force the, the Ford Niners by showing up. And he seems to at least be in shape for as crazy of this offseason has been. So I think that digs is probably not gonna climb too much more. He's the one that should be ranked the highest right now. I think the IUK stuff's gonna look really silly. And I think the second he goes on the commanders, he will be drafted right next to Rashid Jihad, Omar Cooper, those types. And if he does it soon enough, and there's a good training camp clip, he's gonna go ahead of Koker and Khalil Shakir and Jaden Higgins and those guys even around or so above that. So I'm loading up on Brand-O-UK right now. And I think that this thing will get buttoned up soon enough. And if I'm wrong here, well Calvin really is probably not gonna score points. Our guy Bernard's probably not gonna score very many points. - What about Jerry Judy? - Ian Hartitz is most draft a player, 67% of drafts. - I did not name him. I like Jerry Judy. I like Ad9 Mitchell. I like Brandon and IUK. I like to have these at the end of these drafts. I just knew that IUK of them, like this is just gonna look silly. - Well, it is unsurprising that during the timing and taping of the show, Brenna posted another video on Instagram. It was of him holding a football with a commander's logo on it and they captured the bottom reads, quote, "The best team in the world." Just a couple days ago, Brenna also got an Instagram and just said go commanders, go commanders, go commanders. - Yeah. - In that same time, his longtime teammate in George Kittle got on part of my take and said, "Yeah, you're right. "I wouldn't be happy either if a team paid me $130 million "and he said, good luck with all that to PFT "in terms of, hey, we're gonna sign, "Brenna, you can, it's all gonna work out well." So, I mean, I don't know what to think. You know, are you gonna get nice Excel, CV, value, once Brenna you get 100%? Do I think when Brenna you has been on the field and the early parts of his career was he one of the more underrated route runners across the league, 100%. I mean, the dude could flat out win versus man-to-man coverage and looked exceptional. I also think that it's been weird. This is all season, man. I mean, beyond weird. This is not normal behavior. And so, I don't think you can predict normal behavior once he reaches an NFL team and I have no idea. I have no input of what the outcome is going to be other than if he signs with the commanders, he is their second most talented wide receiver and his ADP is gonna be up, but I have no clue what that means in terms of staying on the field, success on the field and how that's gonna look actually on the field. I mean, there's not a wide receiver with nearly the path to upside that compares to him within many, many rounds of where he's currently being priced. And none of these wide receivers have any floor. You're telling me that Calvin really has any floor, Tank Dell has a floor. I mean, he might not even play those other guys that he's sandwiched between. Where would you actually draft Brandon Nayyuk? Let's say he signs on the commanders halfway through training camp. Let's say it's August 10th and he has a couple weeks to prepare. He's out there, he's healthy. We have some positive signs and like, I mean, he's close to here or Brandon Nayyuk, like for real. - Yeah, no, I totally hear you. Like, you know, we are drafting Antonio Williams with the faith that he's gonna be a top two or three target getter on the commanders at the middle of the 14th round right now. I keep talking about it. It is disgusting to draft like any wide receiver round 12 and beyond and there might be three or four that I actually want to draft that entire way. So if you want to make it in the 12th round, 100% be my guess. And it sounds like you want to take an even earlier than that when we just talked about Jalen Coker, for example. But like, that's Jalen Higgins above that and then obviously Cleo Shikir's in that area too. Like, I don't want him to pass the Matthew Golden threshold. - No, he won't. And I think like, I would still rather have Coker than like whatever the hell this Brandon Nayyuk experience is. But like, I mean, Trey Tucker or Brandon Nayyuk. - I agree. - I think that's where like, he should be drafted where Diggs is being drafted. I think that that's like factoring in a lot of the risk here. - The only thing though with Ayyuk, it is one team. It's one team or bust. So do you think that there already is a back channel deal that is done? - Yes. Yes. Okay. - I think he has to force the 49ers to release in which I think the quickest way to do that is to show up at the facility and then I think he would get released to that. So I'm waiting for that to happen. This is always a great exercise. Again, we go through 17 plus games, these players put on the field where they actually finished in Fancy Football and the next season starts because of an all season, because of changes and we draft them entirely different than where they finished the previous year. We have to figure out if that's right or wrong. - Yep. And then running backs will do the same version of it and that one's even more fascinating because I think the running backs are still underpriced. They're priced up and they still have not moved enough. If you're looking at half PPR and I've got some evidence for that. - Well, be on the lookout for that running backshow here in the next couple of days and it'll be in your feed this week. All right, shout out to Moe Show and Weaves behind the scenes and all of you that have watched and hit that subscribe button means a lot to us. Up the villa everyone will talk to you in the next episode. See ya.