7 Tricky Players Who Could Be League-Winners or Massive Busts
165m 1s
The hosts of "Stealing Bananas" tackle the challenge of ranking fantasy football players for 2026, highlighting Justin Jefferson as a particularly difficult case. Jefferson, widely considered the best receiver in football, has seen his ADP fall outside the first round due to concerns about quarterback Kyler Murray’s inconsistent performance and the Vikings’ offensive dynamics. Despite Murray’s 2025 struggles, his stats remained in line with his career, and his ability to support top receivers like DeAndre Hopkins suggests Jefferson can still thrive. However, Murray’s quick release and lack of deep-ball utilization may limit Jefferson’s ceiling. The Vikings’ supporting cast, including Jordan Addison and Jalen Nailor, could both help and hinder Jefferson’s volume. Jefferson’s yards per target plummeted in 2025 due to poor throws from J.J. McCarthy, but this is expected to improve with Murray. The hosts debate whether Jefferson is a value at his ADP, noting his talent could still lead to a top-five yardage season. Other difficult players include CeeDee Lamb, whose ADP is affected by Dak Prescott’s strong play, and running backs like Trey McBride and Ashton Jeanty, who present unique upside. The discussion underscores the uncertainty in balancing talent with environment, but the hosts lean toward Jefferson as a strong pick outside the first round.
(upbeat music) The toughest players to rank in 2026. That's what we're talking about today on stealing bananas and bangratch. You can find the stealing signals newsletter bangratch.substac.com with me as always is Sean Segal. You can find all of his great work over at Rotoviz, including a recent dynasty rookie draft breakdown of ADP, a whole bunch of comments on the rookies there, Sean, and then coming soon, you told me, I think you told me you were working on two big ones coming soon, or maybe this was the first of the big ones. I know you have a big gorilla preview with all your rankings for the FFPC, big gorilla, you have done that the last couple of years around this time. You always release some early summer rankings. I always tell the listeners I try not to read that 'cause I don't wanna get too influenced before I get through my projections process. I'm starting those right now. But you had some players that you were mentioning are kind of difficult to rank as you're working through it or making you think the most. Like a Justin Jefferson was a name that you mentioned to me at the top. And so we'll be talking about guys like that today, going through some different stuff. But first, we should probably address the elephant in the room, which is that we haven't posted anything for a month. And so we have been busy, Sean, you did a little traveling. I missed a, after we missed a couple of weeks, then I wasn't really paying attention on one of the days that we normally record on Thursdays. And I see like three hours later that you had texted me Thursday morning and you're like, "Hey, are we recording today?" And I was responding way beyond the time that we normally record and was like, "Oh, my bad." And so we missed that week as well. I think that was last week. So it's been an irregular period, but that doesn't mean stealing bananas is going anywhere. We've just been taking a little bit of time away. In May, we are back to chat with you guys. We first, we hadn't talked a lot. We texted a little bit and been doing some different stuff with our dynasty league together and dynasty league where we play against each other and those things. But we hadn't gotten on a call in several weeks either, which is rare for us. So we just spent three hours, I'm looking at the clock now, talking before the recording today, mostly about non-football stuff, catching up on other things. The listeners who don't know, we didn't even talk about Arizona tennis, but they'll be bummed to hear that the Arizona men's tennis team did not win the national championship. You and I were discussing that a little bit in text a few weeks back. We were talking today about my Seattle Mariners, your Arizona Diamondbacks. We could start a baseball podcast. I'm sure people would love to listen to that. Mostly just me telling you about the Mariners and you telling me about the Diamondbacks. It's like that old saying about our pod that it's two solo pods and we just got to tell each other things. So that's what we did today. I love hearing about the Diamondbacks. So they're a super fun team. You pretend to care about the Mariners, but we all know that you have a bias against a Pacific Northwest. So good to have you back. Good to be back. Sorry to the listeners that we haven't recorded. We did an extra pod at the end of April. I think we did five in April and most of them were like two hours long. So hopefully that sustained people for most of May. We are back here at the end of May to talk. You have some great content coming out and we're going to talk about some players that you found difficult to rank. Yeah, so this is this question of not even necessarily always difficult to rank, but difficult to think about. And certainly you look at and you like and you're excited by the people that don't just get you going at all. The people like David Montgomery, like probably don't draft him. He'll probably score some points. I mean, there's nothing fun there, right? But someone like Justin Jefferson, where I mean, he's probably the best wide receiver in football. Maybe one of the best wide receivers ever. And yet, then you look at the big role that you just mentioned. He's outside the first round. He has this interesting kind of one on one against CD Lamb to be the wide receiver five versus wide receiver six. To see both of those guys falling outside the first round is interesting. And my first instinct looking at that is to say, okay, Justin Jefferson has been much more dominant than CD Lamb throughout his career. And now we're back to a real offense. He should probably be like pretty clearly the guy, right? And the pieces that they have in place behind him, probably mostly help him when you think through the variety of scenarios. Because when you have Jordan Addison there, when you have Joanne Jennings there, it's harder to do the things to him that you can maybe do to some of these other top wide receivers. Now, the interesting thing with a Jemar Chase, with possibly a Pukka Nuku, with an Ammon Ross St. Brown and with a CD Lamb, they do actually have number two's who are pretty dynamic. And so how we balance maybe having the two guys versus having the elite number two in a Pickens is a fascinating piece of the puzzle. But the quarterback play is the other thing that really jumps out there. And I mean, color Murray's going to be one of these guys who is incredibly controversial. But I think that he is also very difficult to understand, which is one of the reasons that Justin Jefferson becomes so difficult to understand. You think about Kyler Murray, his trajectory through the time period there with the Cardinals. You have the weird stuff in his contract at one point. I think it's taken out where it's like stop playing so much in the way of video games. We know that there were some football character issues with him. We know that there have been injury issues there with him. And then you have the season last year. You have the deal in 2024 where they can't get the touchdowns to Tramik Bride. They're trying to manufacture their at the end. You have him get hurt in 2025. And then the backup unlock Michael Wilson. And turn Tramik Bride into this unbelievable superstar. And you're like, yeah, everything that we thought we were seeing or Kyler Murray cannot see over the line, cannot read the defense, cannot make these throws, that all appears to be true. But the other part of it when you dive in is that yes, his numbers in 2025 were worse, but they were still basically in line with his career. And it says IQR, which is the SIS quarterback rating, the factors out things like drop passes, right? It's really focusing on what the QB can control. And it's basically the QB rating with a few of those changes. Had him just barely below where he has normally been. And in a range that is viable, you pull up someone like a Deandre Hopkins, who played his, I believe age 28 through 30 seasons with Kyler Murray. And the adjusted yards per attempt for Hopkins during that stretch. He was the second best quarterback of Hopkins career. And they were pretty good numbers. You look at the fantasy scoring for Hopkins, especially in that first year. And it was fine. So when we take that and we say, OK, Murray obviously has these limitations. One of the things that pops up that's weird about him is that the time to throw numbers are sort of in the middle of the NFL. And so you're getting a lot of targets out of him. He's reading a lot of pass attempts where he actually threw pretty quickly, despite being mobile. And that to me, in some ways, is a red flag because you're thinking that for these guys who have the mobility and really unlock some of the vertical element of it, a decent amount of that comes off of broken plates. And you want the mobile QB actually to hold the ball some. And especially if we're talking about someone like a Justin Jefferson, as opposed to always scrambling when you didn't get the early read, that you sometimes throw deep. I mean, that's one of the things that obviously has made someone like a Russell Wilson. So good for the guys that he throws too. So for me, it was interesting to go through and look into reinforced this idea that Murray probably wasn't dramatically worse in 2025. And that the decision that the Vikings had made, which I mean, they've gone to Calamari as the guy, right? This is not a legit competition. That probably isn't as absurd as it felt to me on the surface having been a cardinal span and watching him and feeling like he just can't play football. And then the other thing that jumps out is the joint Jennings had some injuries last year as well, but was also better than I thought, even though some of his yards per route numbers drop. I mean, this is, again, depending on how you end up running the offense, right? It could be that the Vikings offense really crushes Jordan Addison now. But we still get a ton of first reads to Justin Jefferson and the entire offense is built around that to where the second and third guys don't really matter. But it could be a scenario where having a third receiver as good as Jennings, it's not that Justin Jefferson won't have a good season and it's not that the Vikings won't have a great season, but it could be problematic for the type of volume you need to do the type of season that we expect out of the Justin Jefferson. This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. May is mental health awareness month and a reminder that whatever you're going through, you don't have to go through it alone. We all know life is a journey. Some days you feel good, others you feel a little bit overwhelmed. It's easy to feel like you have to figure it all out on your own. But the truth is, no one has all the answers.
answers and no journey should be done alone. Having somebody with you to listen to understand and support you can make all the difference. If you've been feeling overwhelmed, anxious, a little bit unsure, those feelings are more common than we think, and with May being mental health awareness month, it is an opportunity to check in with ourselves and understand where we are right now. Although we're 30,000 therapists, better health is the world's largest online therapy platform having served over 6 million people globally. Better health also does the initial matching work for you so you can focus on your therapy goals, just fill out a sharp questionnaire to help identify your needs and preferences. If you aren't happy with your match, you can switch therapists at any time from their tailored recommendations. You don't have to be on this journey alone, find support and have someone with you in therapy. Sign up and get 10% off at betterhelp.com/rotoviz. That's better hitglp.com/rotoviz. It'll be interesting. I think the volume, the passive volume, the team level stuff will be interesting. I think at least on a per-out basis, I'm definitely expecting him to take a pretty big step forward. Based on the PFF numbers that I have in my look up sheet, first of his career, he was at 2.5 yards per-out run or higher. Then last year was a 60's and he was down to 1.88. He's more than a half-yard lower than, and that's in me, not a Justin Jefferson stat. It's a JJ McCarthy stat. It's not really on the targets per-out run side. I always talk about the two component parts. It's actually not at all. It's targets per
-out run or basically right on his career average. It's almost exclusively on the yards per-target side. He was getting the throws, but suddenly couldn't be this hyper-efficient player that he used to be. He's down below league average in yards per-target. If you watched the Vikings last year, you know that wasn't because he wasn't suddenly as open as he typically was, which is part of why his yards per-target were so high. A lot of the time, he's catching balls without even any competition, no contested catches or any of those concerns. You can make the contested catches when he needs to, but what we saw was he'd create separation of the B-wide open and then JJ McCarthy would throw a ball that would bounce in front of him or go over his head or whatever. Then he would have this dejected body language and look like he was super mad. You couldn't really blame him. One of the things they're talking about a lot with McCarthy and trying to fix him is that he threw the ball too much on the line last year. You were watching those games rooting for any Vikings player. It was so striking how bad it was and reinforces the type of throws that you get from these other NFL quarterbacks because even just visually it was so different than anything else you see. It's right. It was just not something that works as you watch all the other games around the league. When you have a guy that wide open, you don't need to be firing the ball. You typically see a little bit of touch, a little bit of, "Hey, let's make sure we get this completion," that kind of thing. I do think at least on a per-route basis, Sean, that we'll see. You talk through some of the concerns about the other players that you mentioned John Jennings. I think we're going to see the yards for target. Go back up pretty quickly. As much as Kyler Murray is not a perfect quarterback, I do think he's capable and you talked about what Deandre Hopkins and a lot of that. Kyler's capable of sustaining an outside receiver. Is it going to be perfect? Is he going to be able to throw over the middle of a bunch because he can see over the middle, maybe not, but Justin Jefferson can win on every single route. I've been of the mind that Jefferson is a nice value that you can get a player that talented because you're concerned about some of the scheme fit, some of the quarterback fit. That was part of why I wasn't as in on Jackson Smith and Jigbel last year, for example. Not exactly the same story, but it wasn't that I didn't believe in the player. It was more that I didn't believe in the offense or the quarterback or all these different reasons. Then I do think you just want exposure to guys that can be that high ceiling, that good. We know Jefferson can. Especially as some of the wider-seer-sealing seasons have been tougher to come by. There's been fewer, really huge yardage seasons from the wider-seer's last few years. There was less overall yardage for offenses last year, despite scoring rebounding which I attributed to the higher kick return. Average fuel position off kicks, higher rate of possessions that ended in a score, despite yardage being down. You're closer to fuel goal range with kickers making long fuel goals. When it's easier to score on a possession, my other big thought on that was we wound up with a lot of games that were kind of more blowouts. Then you have the 17-game season and more of an impact and focus on player health. It seemed like there was more games last year where teams got out ahead early. Then their opponents kind of packed it in, looked to next week and you're getting a little bit more of that in the modern NFL than 20, 25 years ago when it was like, "Hey, we played at the final whistle. We're a macho, man." I don't think the NFL works the exact same way with the extra games, with the focus on health and those things. You get some different incentive structures and things. We got a little bit less overall ceiling at the receiver position. Can Justin Jefferson have a 1600-yard season this year with Caledon Murray maybe not? I think he can easily be one of the top five receivers in receiving yardage because I do think that scale also comes back a little bit. I'm pretty into Jefferson at a little bit of a discount. When I say top five, I think he can lead the NFL in receiving yardage pretty easily in the modern NFL because I do think it's more a function of. It doesn't require quite the same ceiling and it's a little bit more a function of some of the offensive stuff. I do think Kevin McConnell is going to have some answers and they're going to do some things better in Minnesota. That's a tough one. As far as I was telling you this before the show, this theme of what are the toughest players to rank? You just gave a really good rundown of Jefferson. A lot of it is like. We're not saying a lot to say that Justin Jefferson is really going to football. There's a reason that his ADP is where it is. A lot of it is already baked in and the question is as simple as the reality of what his ADP is relative to what the thought of his talent is. You can just shrug and say, "It's tough to be certain of anything really, but I would say I'm optimistic." Yeah, so it comes back to the. Then what would you do? It's not just a question of ranking, but if you're on the clock and you're in an important league for yourself, you're talking about not getting a best ball portfolio, but you're drafting in a big gorilla, say 350, you're drafting in a main event, 2000, what have you, and you have a pick in this range, it feels like taking Justin Jefferson outside of the first round is a no-brainer completely regardless of environment. And yet. It's always that situation with the quarterbacks where almost any quarterback will work until you get a Brown's quarterback or J.J. McCarthy. And so you're always trying to make sure you avoid those situations. And even some of the situations are not that obvious necessarily. I mean, Geno Smith, someone who I think is fascinating because his numbers with the Seahawks were actually quite good and very interesting, and then the numbers with the Raiders last season are so bad that they make some additional terrible financial decisions to kind of move off of him. And for me, it really is tough because I've got all this Cardinal's gear. I mean, Kyler Murray has kind of killed my love of the Arizona Cardinals. I mean, between that and what Martin Eris is doing. You think I don't know. Well, I mean, we're back to the situation where Kyler Murray looks like a good pick in fantasy, and you're like, should my priority quarterback for the entire season be my least favorite player? But then also, you know, what does happen in Justin Jefferson because. I mean, one of the things that we did when we talked, I think, mid-season last year, on our. Like, look ahead, rankings. We're like, this first round is going to be really fun in 2026. And it is. The players going immediately ahead of Justin Jefferson or CDLAM, who before a season last year, that basically was just down to injuries. I thought he had a little more season than he actually had. When you dig into the numbers and you see what he did despite all of the drops, and you adjust for the games that are partial games, you're basically back to being like, CDLAM has not hurt that much by George Pickens. And if that all, and the ceiling is still gigantic, and Dak Prescott had an awesome year, just an awesome year. And so you're contrasting Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray, and you're thinking about the upside there. We're like, it doesn't have to be a question between the two of them. Maybe you get some CDLAM, but you also get Justin Jefferson, but maybe there are other guys. Well, immediately ahead of that is Tramock Bride, who scored like 22 points per game last season in FFPC scoring. Immediately ahead of that is Ashton Genti, who Kubehack is talking about as having on the Caffery workload. And so now we're looking at these guys. I mean, the guy that jumps out to me is probably incorrectly valued. Is the 110? Is James Cook? I think James Cook is good. I think the bills are good. I think I'll score a lot of points. I do think he's more of a mid-second round pick guy. And immediately after Jefferson, H.Anne and Chase Brown seemed like
like meaningfully worse picks. But is it a case where we would really only take Jefferson like at his ADP that that is the spot you wouldn't pull him up or would you pull him up ahead of some of those guys? - That's a good question 'cause I do wanna take CD-LAM. - And I do wanna take, yeah, I mean, when I ordered up the FieldTipper series a couple of months ago now, I know I came out very favorable on LAM. I'm looking at his numbers now. Other than the monstrous 2023, his 2025 basically matches 2022 for like, he's point on one behind it in your spare out run for like a second best season in like a per-route basis. He's consistently efficient. He's consistently good with the ball in his hand. It's a little bit of a matter of the raw volume but it's always been very good. And with Pickens there, it wasn't like he was unable to get a lot of targets or a lot of key volume. I don't wanna be out on Tramock Bride and Titan Premium just 'cause people are worried about Carson Beck playing. I mean, I've seen a lot of that. The Carson Beck stuff is interesting to me. I do think he's gonna play and you do have to worry about the fact that the end of the season is what matters the most. And that's probably when Carson Beck's gonna be playing a little bit but he may play earlier than that and he may be bad enough that they have to go away from him. He was a third round pick in a class where they weren't a lot of great quarterback options and people still weren't enamored with him, right? I mean, obviously the Cardinals were to some degree 'cause they took him ahead of a lot of the other, whatever. Before the other day two picks and beyond. So he was one of the top QBs to go in this class but it doesn't mean that there aren't warts in that profile that multiple QB community teams passed until the third round on. And then the other part of it is the reason that people are concerned about Berset is he's reportedly very far apart from the team on contract negotiations but like he came out and said I wanna be paid as a starter and they were like well we don't really wanna pay you as a starter 'cause we think you're a bridge quarterback but they're debating whether or not he's worthy of starter money or at least that's what his camp is creating as the debate. - It's like you're not gonna get that. It's like how much above backup money can you legitimately aspire to? - Of course but if there's any type of capitulation on the Arizona side or what have you. I mean the fact that Arizona is not willing to just give that is sort of all the evidence you need that they're not like hyper committed to him or anything but if there is any kind of capitulation from their side it's gonna immediately change I think some of the thought that like, I mean what if Jacobi Berset, what if they do decide to pay him a little more money and he plays well? I mean he played pretty well last year or if they're actually able to win some games in a new system, they're not gonna be good. No one really expects him to be super good. They're one of the hardest divisions in the league as well. But if they're actually able to do some things well and then they go to Carson back and he's, you know, I'm not saying JJ McCarthy level but if you have all the receivers and all the players and the team not able to put up numbers and when Jacobi Berset was in there, Tremac Bride just had a monster season. Like there is an element of like you lose a locker room a little bit if you're intentionally playing young players that can't play and you have competent veterans that are there and I'm not saying. - That point you make there about if you have competent veterans is an issue because it's not destroying but it's damaging everyone else's career. - Right, that's the whole thing. And so as you were talking through the, like as long as the quarterback play is not JJ McCarthy or Shadur Sanders level bad, before you even brought up the Geno Smith point last year and how he was kind of an interesting one. I was gonna offer, I think it's a sliding scale based on scheme stuff too. 'Cause you know what we've talked about? It's a little bit already this off season. I wrote earlier this off season. I think scheme's more important than ever where there's been all this stuff about 12 and 13 personnel and all the extra tight ends. I was saying to you before the show and I don't wanna go too, too deep into this point 'cause it's a massive tangent. But I don't think, I think a lot of people are taking the lesson on the 12 and 13 personnel and all the tight ends that got drafted and where we're at as if it's one of these copycat trends and everyone's copying it and everyone's gonna run more 12 and 13 personnel and I don't think that's what's happening as far as the copycatting. What I think is happening as far as the copycatting is teams often says want more flexibility. The point I made to you was like Sean McVey last year what he did different than what he'd done prior was, when Pukin and Koo got banged up, he went heavy into 13 personnel for a stretch. They actually pulled back away from it a little bit when Koo got healthy again. They still had it in their bag. They were still using it at a decent rate. But it was like for a stretch of time, they wanted to make teams game plan for something different and not really know what to expect and they're playing a different type of offense. And then when they started playing Seattle, like late in the year and then they played them in the postseason, they're a, I saw some stat and I wish I could attribute it, but I saw it on Twitter weeks ago I think, but it was like their EPA per player. I think per pass out of heavy personnel in games where they ran at least an amount of snaps or a percent of snaps in 13 or 12 personnel or whatever. And it was very, very positive against everyone except for those games against Seattle late in the year. And it's like we get into these games against a team that can stay in nickel and has Nicki Manuari and isn't matching with base personnel. And we know that Sean McVeigh wants to get the defense regulated. That's the whole thing we talked about with that play collar series years ago. The defenses are now this amorphous blob and they're not regulated. The whole thing about throwing out 13 personnel is you get them into base. Now we've regulated their secondary. They don't have extra guys out there. They can't do as much rotation post snap. And now we throw on this look. It makes perfect sense that that's what McVeigh went to. He wanted to regulate the defense so that he could then call plays to compete it. Then he ends up going up against the Seahawks and the EPA per player pass or whatever that number was, was meaningfully worse out of those formations. It was like league average. It wasn't this huge benefit that they had because Seattle had the personnel to stay in nickel and defend that. And as you pointed out to me, also defend the run well enough because there were teams that were doing that like the bills but then couldn't defend the run. And then they go into nickel and you're in 13 personnel. You just run down their throats and now the bills are screwed because they can't stop the run. There's a lot of layers to this. But the point about McVeigh, what he did last year was that he was malleable. It's a long season. We're in a data analytics era. The like advanced scouting that players, you know, coaches have talked about when they were coming up and they're a quality control coach. They had to, you know, watch all the film and check off all the tendencies. How often do the team throw on first in 10? What were their personnel tendencies? All of these things. All of that is known now, right? I mean, there's so much more information for these teams to game plan from. And so I think the lesson that all, and then defenses are doing so much more that is difficult to game plan for the lesson from last year with the heavy tight end stuff was the Rams were able to go from different like base offenses at different points in the season. They're able to be flexible and malleable compared to like five years ago when Sean McVeigh's offense was known for being like super heavy 11 personnel. That's all they ran and they just, they did little variations of plays that they wanted everything to look the same. And then they would do a slight variation off of it. And now it's like, no, we actually want you to have seen all of our tendencies in 11 personnel. And then suddenly we're going to go or be able to match up with teams that play the heavy packages a certain way or play 11 personnel a certain way or have limitations. It's so again, my point is the copycat thing of adding all these tight ends and everything is not just explicitly to be a 12 or 13 personnel offense. And that's all we're going to do now. That's the counter punch offenses. They're all going to run heavy tight ends. It's so that they can do that. And so they have the ability to be different things, right? Depending on the matchup, depending on the situation, depending on the health of players, like the Pukinakua example. We were talking about the chargers. And I said, if Ladmakonky goes down, that's when the chargers are going to go 12 or 13 personnel for the next stretch of games. But if Rondo Gadsden goes down, they may go 11 personnel for the next stretch of games, depending on who's available to them. And so they've created depth at both of those positions. There's multiple teams that have done that sort of a thing. Well, Ben, I think that's a good one. I actually want to jump in here and throw it to you or force you to address one of these teams that I think is difficult. Because-- and we did this kind of as a piece previously. And probably we should address some other topics. But I was wondering if things have changed for you at all with the chargers. Because if anything, the chargers have gotten more complicated and more fascinating since we had this conversation where we were kind of down on Quentin Johnston. And I've gone through this weird evolution of my feeling about it where certainly the way that they've talked about him, what they think he can do, diving into his numbers, getting back for me to this point where the fact that I liked him as a prospect fits with the direction that they are-- the rhetoric that they're throwing out. Now, I mean, they're talking about Brennan Thompson by throwing around names like Tyree Killin, Dishon Jackson. So when they mention people like Andre Johnson and Quentin Johnson, you're like, yeah, I mean, you're talking just like-- the players you have on your team, you're matching to the Hall of Famers. That's fine. It's not really serious like that. But we have Lad McConkey, who seems like a foundation piece of the offense. But it's quickly kind of moving into this area where-- I mean, you think about him being hurt by Keenan Allen last year. And.
We had the big Keenan Allen Stefan Diggs conversation going to the season that people liked. But I like Keenan Allen and I've been reading people talking about how he might still get signed to this team and that he was so good last year, he did nothing in the second half of the season. You have them discussing how Tre Harris is good, which certainly seems to fit with where he was drafted and some of the things he did when he got to play last year. Brennan Thompson is vastly underappreciated in terms of what he can bring to the field. Then he had David and Joku. Then one of the things that jumped out to me as I'm going through is I don't want to have Keenan Mitchell everywhere because then you're just sitting on the guy who doesn't play because Hampton ends up being the fantasy MVP. But Keenan Mitchell, when he was allowed to touch the ball last year for the Ravens, was extraordinary again. I mean, Keenan Mitchell might be the best play in all a fantasy if Hampton goes down because he's I keep getting back to this idea. He's probably just a little bit better version of Devon HN. What did they do with all of these guys? You're getting ready to do your projection series. We talked a little bit about that before the show. You've got a really cool plan in mind dealing with the teams that are the same and the teams that are different. Obviously, this chargers team with McDaniel is going to be different, but it's also a team where he himself will probably be different. When you think about the number of different evolutions he had to or innovations that he had to sort of be the the guy on there. When you're talking about a quarterback that says limited as two out when you're talking about having a terrible offensive line when you're talking about having to probably outscore people, like how do you get consistently get HN into space? What do you do with someone like Waddle who is fast but is probably bad at all the rest of playing football? You have a Tyree kill but then you don't have him. The thing that did just kept popping in mind when you're talking about McVeigh is that when we think about the way that the football is going to evolve, the bad teams are going to try and copy what the good teams did previously and they're going to run at worse and they're going to be behind. Well, the good teams are going to be onto the next thing and with their better personnel and their better coaching, they're going to run those things well. So the overall trends are still going to be split very much by where a team is in its evolution, how good its coaches are and how good its players are. Right. And I kind of went into that whole tangent that I said I was going to go to or not necessarily tangent. I think it's actually very firmly related to everything we're going to talk about but not just today but the whole offseason and the future of the sport. But I kind of got myself lost about why I went into it but I was saying about the quarterback thing. I felt that Gino last year was probably a Gino Smith you had talked about was probably worse. In part because the scheme was designed worse. Chip Kelly ends up getting fired mid season and some of those things and I don't know what that will mean for Gino in New York this year but my point was going to be that there's a sliding scale a little bit. Some of the quarterbacks are just going to not be good enough. Some of them are going to be good enough but maybe not in the right scheme necessarily. I think Gino as a one read guy if you're in a very poorly designed scheme defenses can kind of tee off on that a little bit or they can start to figure things out. And I think his limitations got exposed really bad and there were some games where he didn't even I talked about this a lot this stat. There was like five games for the Raiders which is like almost a third of their games where they didn't throw for a hundred A.R. yards and there was like maybe like eight or something for the rest of the league combined the other 31 teams combined. There's like less than 20 total of such games and the Raiders had five of them. And I mean that's just a situation where Gino's looking back or looking down field as first reads not either where he's supposed to be or the defense is too aware of it and then he can't even get the ball down the field right so we're not getting the A.R. yards. And so I think that was probably route concepts and scheme related as well as the player thing because you had brought up Gino being interesting in relation to like the Shadur Sanders or the bottom or how the floor can really fall out. That's one of the reasons I am going all the way back to the Jefferson conversation optimistic there is I do think Kylo is good enough that the bottom and then O'Connell I still buy into the the it's hard for me to see the bottom falling out the way it did last year for Minnesota that to me I attribute to the quarterback not the scheme or the system but I mean your mileage may vary on on these individual situations I think this framework for thinking through it is very important and it's a bit of both it's a bit of the scheme and the quarterback no when you talk about the chargers you mentioned this um process I'm going to have for doing the projections usually I just start doing one team or another team or I one division I work through it I wrote in a recent post that I think projections are going to be harder than ever to do because we don't know how these offenses are going to evolve what they're going to try to do I do think teams are going to run more 12 and 13 personnel I do think people who are saying that all these extra tight ends means that those rates are going to go up are going to be right the league wide rates of heavy formations are going to go up they're going to go up because more teams are going to make that part of their offense and more teams are going to raise from some very low number to some competent number or whatever 30 percent um competent wasn't the right word but uh whatever some viable range and then that's going to cause the league wide number to shift but our team's going to be making their base offense out of multi tight ends stuff and I think that's the big question and it makes it very difficult to to project a lot of the different offenses I think I saw that we have 20 different offensive coordinators this year I told you as I go into this uh projections process I've highlighted basically the teams that are like green in terms of like I think they're going to have similar tendencies to what they have had in the past and there's always some teams that I've turn over but usually when I go into a projection I can rely a little bit on some past data some past information whether that's coach data whether that's quarterback data and then there's a few teams that are that where there's turnover but when we have 20 different offensive coordinators and we have scheme stuff being so important I had less teams that I were like I was like these teams are going to be similar to last year and I can rely a little bit on last year's data and regress and figure out how I want to build this year's projection off of last years then teams that I'm like I don't it's almost like I don't want to look at last year's data because it's going to be completely different this year I had more teams that were like that and so I'm going to start with the teams that are I think easier to project basically and then go to the teams that are harder which is there's some problems with that from a process standpoint but it's going to be helpful when I get to a team like the chargers to at least have done 10 or 12 teams and feel good about the process and be like oh I think this team might look a little bit more like this team where did I have the volume for them and have some teams done that I can sort of cross references sort of because the truth is I don't know how I'm going to land with the chargers and so one of the things when they signed David and Joku I saw a comparison of Mike McDaniel had the John who Smith role and David and Joku's had a lot of short targets and I've talked about that a lot in the yak in the last few years and it was like David and Joku could get that John who Smith role and it's like man that immediately sounds amazing John Smith was awesome under Mike McDaniel a couple of years ago yet 88 catches even if he gets that role like one of the key points and something I'm going to write about soon as I think in this era of these shifts in all these offensive schemes it personnel moving around and how teams are going to use guys we've always had an issue with pattern matching Sean I think we're going to have a bigger pattern matching problem than ever I wrote about it a little bit in my last post but I always use that sort of like 60 40 rule where like the best models in fantasy are like an R-squared of 0.6 and that means that like 60% of the you know whatever thing you're trying to predict unexplained variable or whatever it's I don't remember the math term I'm not you know a genius on the math stuff but I do know like a little bit of like how it works and 60% of it is explained by your model the other 40% is unexplained variance that's one minus the 60% right my 60 40 rule is people get so good at comparing the 60% side of it to some other situation that they and our data is so advanced in all of these things that then they then convince themselves that that can replace the 40% of unexplained variance and that can't the unexplained variance is there for a reason in football you and I both talk about this a ton the so I am a humility based drafting and the understanding that like there's a lot of unknown in everything that we do in fantasy football there's unknowns so like if you talk to me about the David and Joe Kujan who Smith thing I think people are going to immediately go oh my god he could have so much production my argument would be that's a failure of pattern matching just because their profiles are very similar and McDaniel's used a guy like that similarly does not mean that it's going to look like what John who Smith does like you start to think that the outcomes going to be the same the outcomes are different because of that 40% unexplained variance and in this case the 40% difference is John who Smith did that on a team that had no other options basically and David and Joe Kujan a team that has a million other options as you just laid out and so the problem would be even if java I mean the most efficient plays for the chargers are David and joker on the bench to be clear even if they do some of that within joku it's not going to translate to 111 targets even in the massive ceiling outcome and at least the way that I would handicap it that would be like the extreme like scenario where like half the rest of the skill position players for the chargers get injured and they have nothing and whatever but even if they want to do some of that john who Smith with and joku stuff with and joku I would think it's going to be a very small portion of their offense and the production
like almost doesn't even register on a fantasy scale because volume still matters. And if they're doing a lot of different things, and that's where you become, that's sort of my answer for the charges. This goes a lot of different ways. The other comparison I've seen recently is with Lad Maconkey. And I think it was Ryan Heath from fantasy points who does great work. And I love the piece that Ryan wrote about the 12 and 13 personnel and a lot of comparisons. But you know, he drew comparison in there that was Lad Maconkey could be this year's JSN basically and the draw was going into year three, JSN got to play a lot more in the heavier tight end formations and run a lot more routes against two tight ends or three tight ends and fewer wide receivers. And we know that wide receivers generally are more efficient out of those formations. And Maconkey sets up to potentially have a similar type of situation this year. And that was a very favorable comparison. To me, that's that 60% thing. It can't replace the 40% like unexplained variants, which the big differences to me are going into last year, JSN was the whole game. They had traded away, DK Metcalf, they'd built the offense. The tight ends they had were not on a rendez-gadden's level or even David and Jokuz in my opinion. I think AJ Barner and Rookie Elijah, Royo are fine players, but it wasn't like they were going to be key parts of the past game. Cooper Cup was a clearly declining declining player in my opinion going into the year. If you looked at the numbers, I thought that was a bad signing with how much money they gave him. He had some moments for them. Was a veteran presence. What have you? But I think was probably a good wide receiver to be running your routes against at that stage of his career for JSN. They had some young guys like Atari Horton that were interesting, but Lad Maconkey's going to be dealing with a lot more talent across the different positions when he runs routes into two tight formations. There's also meaningful differences in the profiles. JSN came in at 21 was not as like one of the things Ryan said is they had very similar numbers through two years. But JSN came in at 21 was not particularly good in his first year for a variety of reasons. Had a broken wrist early Shane Waldron. And then at 22 in year two, he really takes off. And especially once DK Mechak gets hurt around week seven from then on, his guards per out run was 2.3 year, whatever it was. I can't remember the exact number, but we were talking about an ascending player. Lad Maconkey was a player who never had the production profile in college, did not get the same draft capital as around two pick compared to around one pick. And more importantly in the NFL, he had a great first year. So they're two year data similar, but I'd great first year. And it's now looked complicated in year two when he had more competition. And now we see a little bit of a declining trajectory, if anything, right from year one to year two. So I think that sequencing is relevant. And he's an older player now going into his year three because he was older coming into year one. Jason's actually younger than him having played one extra NFL year. So his year three breakout, a little bit more of the traditional like, yeah, I came in very young. And then it was an upward trajectory to that year three breakout. Lad Maconkey comes in a little older and has already come back a little bit from that rookie year production. But more importantly is the setup of the offense to me when I see this comparison. I do think Lad Maconkey's going to probably run more routes in and heavy tight information. And that could be favorable. And that is something that is exciting. And there are elements to their profiles statistically through two years that are similar. And we can we can see a lot of similar things about them. I don't think that means that the outcomes are going to be similar. Now that does that mean that Lad Maconkey is not an interesting upside play, which is he's point right and his point was Lad Maconkey is an interesting upside play. If the offense breaks a certain type of way, and then he gets to consolidate a lot of the wide receiver routes against other, you know, tight ends and weaker target earners. Although I would say that like that's a macro trend that wide receivers are better against running routes against heavy formations with multiple tight ends because tight ends on a macro level are not as good of receivers as received as wide receivers. And yet on a micro level, if a tight end is like an Aronde Gadsden or if David and Joku has earned a lot of volume over the years, I mean, you could make the case that they could be better competition than wide receivers in some cases when you start digging into the micro like you don't always want to apply these kinds of macro trends without the main point I would make is that Lad Maconkey is not going into an offense that just traded away DK Meccaff and doesn't really have anyone else. He has a lot of competition as you just noted they brought in I mean, Trey Harris was the guy playing in 13 personnel as the one wide receiver last year. They still have Quentin Johnson who some people love because he's had a lot of touchdowns the last couple of years. Keehan Dre Lambert Smith's the guy that they had from last year. They also drafted Brenn Thompson this year in round four. So they have, you know, multiple second and second year and rookie receivers that are not like crazy exciting, but maybe we'll get routes in playing time. They've got way more at tight end, I think, than the Ceeox had going into to last year. And so I mean, again, I don't think I'm necessarily saying something that Ryan Heath wasn't trying to say with that comparison, but my point is, and I love his work. I'm not trying to be critical. My point is I look at this offense and I don't see that because everything that isn't similar about Lad Maconkey and JSN is a problem for Lad Maconkey to me is all that complication of there's a lot of different formations that they can do. And I don't know who's going to play in all those formations. There's a lot of other players that can actually earn some targets whether that's some of the tight ends I was talking about or whether they throw deep to Quentin Johnst and or Trey Harris or whatever they do. I mean, like JSN was getting deep targets last year. Maybe Lad will, but they have better deep receivers in Seattle. And so it'll be interesting to see if Lad's role gets more multi-dimensional, but it's a lot more challenging to look at this team and this roster and feel like the runway is there. What I see here, Sean, is the potential that they have a lot of different types of formations, a lot of different personnel packages. And then the question is, do any of them get like it goes like to that Sean Payton issue that we've always had where the last couple years, Cortland Sutton would run the most routes and then no one else would really run any. Last year we got a little bit more out of Troy Franklin. And when I say any, I mean, you know, 300 for the next best guy on the offense, the year prior to last in 2024. I believe that was the case 300 or 400. You want guys that are on 500 plus routes to really be fantasy viable. And in 2024, the everything behind Sutton was split in 2025. Everything behind Sutton and Franklin was split. And Franklin's routes were kind of dipping toward the end of the year. If you get that type of offense in some of these situations like the chargers where they're doing a whole lot of different things, it becomes difficult to have the real fantasy ceiling purely from a volume standpoint. Now I'm not saying that's how I'm necessarily reading the chargers, but that is a concern here when you talk about how many good players there are. It's a concern at the running back position even if Keith Mitchell is as dynamic as you say. And if he ends up getting a lot of the outside zone opportunities with things does that cut into Omar and Hampton too much. This come on if I'd all also impact Hampton. I really want to like players in this offense. I really want to like Omar and Hampton behind a really good offensive line. And with the potential that he has in year two, I've seen some concerns about his efficiency. I don't think I'm that concerned about the player, but I think I am. I'm already in Hampton rate number one in points above average per attempt in the NFL last year. Okay, so people have been pretty concerned about him against, I don't know, I guess he had his best games against some week off. And so I saw some tweet that was like, that's true for a lot of players. Yeah, you do want to really make a sunshine. Yeah, of course. And then the other name I was just going to circle to and finish because I was talking about all the different positions was Alak Engel that they brought in and paid a bunch of money to it fullback because McDaniel likes to run the fullback stuff. And he had him in Miami. And they used to have when he went to Miami, they signed Alak Engel to the big the second biggest contract in the league for a fullback the biggest being Kyle Eust check, which was his fullback in San Francisco. And he used Engel the decent amount down in Miami. And now he signed him here with the charger. So you're going to get 12 and 13 personnel. You're going to get some like 22, which is like two running backs and two tight ends where Engel's on the field. You're going to get some old school heavy formations. And that gets into, you know, who's the wide receiver in those spots. If the one wide receiver is a lot of my conchia can be pretty exciting. But I don't know that again, the outcome type stuff. I don't even think I can see loud. Mcconchia ceiling being what JSN's was last year because there's so much more to it. The JSN was a better player that was a more of an ascending to a sending talent. And then part of the reason the offense was situated the way it was was that he was going to be the centerpiece of the passive game no matter what formation they were in. But then they, you know, they built something that worked the best for that. But I think that had less to do with the formational tendencies and more to do with Jackson Smith and Jigba. Just my stance on that as far as how I'm like going to actually project them. I don't know. I again, I want to go through all these other teams. But I'm shot. I'm worried about it. I'm like procrastinating my projections because I don't know how to project them. I don't know how to project all these teams that have so many paths as far as how I see the depth that they've acquired and the ways that these things can go. I mean, it's going to be tricky this year. I don't think that we have. So the thing that I would say is that we have a lot of different scenarios that are pretty fun to think through through the chargers. I think the response would be that that's true for all teams. But it's not true for all teams in the same way. So I'm thinking about about the chargers. I would, I mean, for me, just in her work seems like the favorite
it to be the NFL MVP because we're thinking that the other day too. I firmly rubber stamping this. I was thinking that he's got to be a really good bat. I was going to look at his odds. It's a great call. You have the competency at the head coaching position, which is very important just for the stability. Then you have the elite offensive coordinator. You have what will probably be if they get healthy and stay healthy, an elite offensive line, which is a full 180 from what they had last season. You're going to have efficient running backs. Then you have so many good players. One of the things with Quentin Johnston is that he has some really big weaknesses that people tend to attach to when things are going poorly. That's not necessarily wrong. When you have trouble catching the ball, that's a big deal. Outside of that, he does some things that certainly someone like a lad in a conky can't do. When you have someone who is a vertical receiver and is a fantastic manufacturer touch receiver, and those are two different types of things that especially with an elite coordinator, you can use schematically and from a match-up perspective to beat opposing defenses. You have this rising tight end, as you talked about. You have two different tight ends who can do different things. Probably, Gadsden could be a star if he had the volume, but he's almost certainly not going to have the volume. You have Tre Harris, who I think people are overlooking because he was blocked. I mean, Ladneconky was not blocked. Tre Harris was blocked and to work off of what you were discussing. In terms of where they were as prospects, you could certainly make the case that Tre Harris was the better prospect and the difference between their rookie seasons is just the opportunity. And not in so much of opportunity at wide receiver is always based on just how good you are. It's one of the areas that is different than running back. And yet there are some exceptions where there is either no competition or there's a ton of competition. And the Harris thing is a real problem, even before you get Thompson, who does have that speed element that almost no one can match. And so when you're thinking through it, you can have this scenario where Herbert is the MVP. The volume is actually a little bit down because the efficiency is so high. The scoring is spread nicely throughout the players and they all more or less come in around their ADPs. You have the scenario where it's spread, but because it's spread, the cheaper players are the people who win for you. You do have the situation with Maconky where he's the big winner and the offense is good. And this ADP that he has right now ends up looking like one of these super weird prices after the fact. Everybody's like, yeah, he's going in the middle of fourth round. That's absurd. It was obvious. It's probably not obvious. And it's not obvious because people are drafting him there, but you think of the guys immediately ahead of him. The four receivers right ahead of him are kind of working backward. Our Higgins, Wilson, Abouka, and then Macmillan. It's not obvious that he should go ahead of any of those guys. And then you think through the guys behind him, they flowers quietly had a fantastic season last year. What their burden is the breakout guy, DJ Moore potentially gets that kind of digs bump when he goes to Buffalo. Terry McClureen has nothing to compete with there with Washington and has Jayden Daniels. You're talking about, and then it thins out, I think substantially. If Maconky were after those four, it'd be like, yes, get him every time that you have a pick there. And there are four guys coming in immediately after him. Like those guys, situation in the offense is much more secure, especially the three veterans, but even Luther Burden, much more secure. We just have so many, and that's before we get into all these scenarios with the chargers, where we just end up being wrong. I mean, every season, there's a team that seems like they're going to go on this Let's Create Attack roll over the NFL. They've had such a great offseason that got good coaching. You start to get some injuries. You know, someone, people catch up to Mac Daniel a little bit. And the team is just actually mediocre. If the team is mediocre, none of these prices work. And so that's one of the reasons that the chargers end up being self fascinating compared to the situations that like with flowers with Moore and with Nick Lauren. It's not that those guys also don't have a range. They obviously have a range, but we understand what the principal components are of that much more narrowly. That point about what if they're just mediocre? Like we're all very high on the chargers, but I think you do have to acknowledge like just last year they had offensive line troubles. And like we're Sean Slater struggled to stay healthy. And Joe All got hurt last year. And I mean, I do think it's very likely that they get more play out of their two top 10 overall picks at tackle because they lost Slater preseason. He didn't play at all. And then they lost all early in the regular season. It's like, yeah, I mean, if you have two dudes, I'm like, I'm both play left tackle because they moved all over to left when Slater went out. Like, yeah, you're likely to have a left tackle. Like it's probably not likely that they're both going to go out, you know, by week five this year. Like let's we're really hoping for for the chargers. And I do just want to be clear. Like I get the point about the well to finish that point. Like what if they do go out or what if they do have injuries or what if they do end up a little bit worse than we think as a result of a number of different things that can happen. Was sort of your point. But I do want to emphasize when you when we're out some of the different tight ends and when you brought them up, we didn't mention Charlie Kohler. And this is like part of the point that a lot of people would drive home. He got 17 million fully guaranteed. He's a blocking tight end. But he's going to play. Like they gave him a ton of money. This NFL teams were drafting blocking tight ends on day two in the second round. They don't matter for fantasy. And that's why we weren't really talking about them a bunch. But they're going to be on the field. And then Alec Engold's the other one. They gave him three and a half million fully guaranteed. Most teams don't even carry a fullback. They're paying this guy like more money than some halfbacks are getting. You know what I mean? Like starting halfbacks are not necessarily getting three and a half million these days. And he gets, you know, a solid solid free agent contract to come in. He's going to play. They are you get five eligible receivers on a play. They are going to have Alec Engold and Charlie Kohler are out there as eligible sometime. And so as far as like why ultimately that's why the stuff can concentrate. Why the the market shark and concentrate. Why we may not actually see like you talked about to tray Harris getting squeezed last year. That kind of thing could happen again. It could happen to Brennan Thompson. It could happen to one of the tight ends. Maybe it's David and Joku. Um, it could happen around a gatson to a little bit of a degree. It happened at Kiontray Lambert Smith also last year where they just don't even run any routes basically because so many of the routes or or skill position snaps are eaten up by players that don't even run routes. And we do have to like, you know, keep that in mind. And that's the real point that, um, you know, is is good from the the research that Ryan Heath did and some of the other stuff. Like yeah, I mean, if that means that the volume, the past volume does largely concentrate on a few guys in the passing game, lad Maconkey first and foremost, there is real ceiling. I just, I have a hard time seeing his situation being the same just because we get more 12 personnel, 13 personnel, 22 personnel snaps and when he gets to run more routes in favorable spots. I guess my question is, are we overconfident though and what Maconkey's role will actually be? Oh, for sure. I mean, that's and I think Ryan in that discussion, by the way, I do think Ryan was acknowledging that he was saying that there is, you know, we want to target upside and there is upside for this to come. That's the player that you can bet on to have that that outcome. Um, but there are these scenarios where they continue to use Tray here. I would argue it's the most likely scenario where they continue to use Tray Harris and the one wider C resets. They drafted him in round two last year and they liked him in the one wider C resets because he blocks well. And then they would throw to him occasionally. But that was like his main role and going into year two, it would be weird for me to think that they would remove that one major role from him, which was when they went to 13 personnel or they used a fullback or whatever they used Harris and they're going to do a lot of that this year. They're going to do a lot of two tight ends with a fullback and a half back in one receiver or three tight ends potentially. I think it's probably going to be Harrison those scenarios in which case, Lad Maconkey's routes are not going to get to 90% plus they're going to be at whatever 75% or less. And that's going to impact the ceiling obviously. Part of Ryan's point was what if Maconkey wound up in that role, it's more of a what if in an upside argument. But it's very, I think even if he winds up in that role, it's going to be a challenging situation just because the tight ends are better and I don't even know that we're going to see, I don't know, it's going to be fascinating. The ways that these things evolved throughout the season for the different offenses, I think I think people are trying to project my answer to your original question about the chargers is they're going to be different offenses at different points in this season. They're going to look a certain type of way in week one by week four. People are going to be victory lapping a certain thing about their offense and in week eight, their offensive tendencies are going to be different than they were in week four. In a week 12, they're going to be different still. And because that's actually the way that you succeed in the modern NFL when defenses have the upper hand. And the one point that we've consistently made the last half decade when we've been ahead of the game, ahead of the curve here, Sean talking about the way that defenses have taken over. It's
that defense can continue to get better. And they are going to continue to get better. And they're definitely gonna be working to have answers for the multiple tight end sets. And so this idea that like every team is just gonna go out there and run base 12 personnel or 13 personnel, that I don't think everyone's saying and I'm not trying to whittle down anyone's argument to that. But the idea that that may happen, that I do think some people are erroneously believing. Some people that are not as engaged as, like again, like a Ryan Heath, I'm certainly not talking about Ryan at this point, but other individuals that are not as deep in the weeds and don't understand the concepts as much, more like consumers, people that we're talking to listeners of our podcast that are hearing these trends, and they're like, hey Ben, is everybody gonna run 12 and 13 personnel all the time because that's all I'm hearing all the time? It's like, no, that is not the way that it works. It's not the way it can work because the defenses are also going to try to find answers for that. I think this is not something to hold me to. Sean, one of the outcomes is by like week five, teams are not even running that much 12 and 13 personnel anymore because defenses had answers going into week one. And we know that defenses are pretty good at doing the copycat thing even within seasons. So if a couple teams have some really good answers, you have to have the right personnel as we've talked about. But it's a smart, enterprising defense coordinators around the league, a couple of these have some really good answers. Other defenses are gonna incorporate that stuff very quickly in terms of how they're able to neutralize some of the advantages that offenses have to pass out of those formations. And if that happened, this is not a scenario I think is likely. It is a macro scenario I think is possible in 2026. We may see this heavy tight end thing be like a bubble that bursts by like again, by like week five. And teams are like, well, that's not, we're gonna go back to just using that sparingly, you know, when we're in certain situations. I don't think that's likely. I do think that's within the range of outcomes in 2026. Well, and just as kind of an aside to finish, I mean, you mentioned that and you think about the things that McGinnell has done previously with the motion that changed everything with his ability to unlock the middle where Jaylin Lodel and Tyra Kill are just running free. And then suddenly defenses like, oh, like that's an area we should defend and it does force you to evolve. And there have been some fits and starts with his offenses, but he has continued to come up with answers. I think the answers for the chargers are gonna be so interesting, but they will have to be interesting because then this is a team obviously that has four games against the chiefs and the Broncos. It is an AFC West that goes against the NFC West. So they have those three games against the Seahawks, the Rams and the 49ers. They have the AFC East, which is maybe not the most difficult, but that does mean that you're playing both the bills and the Patriots. And then with the second-place schedule, they actually have it worse than the Broncos because that actually means they get the Ravens and the Texans. They're playing a playoff game virtually every week, which is similar to what the Broncos and chiefs will be dealing with as well. The chiefs obviously with their, sort of tank fest down the stretch, made it a little bit easier for themselves, they should. But again, in some of the divisions, there's not as, the Raiders with the very last-place schedule is the place that you want to be there. Except obviously. And the reason for the last-place schedules that the Raiders don't get to play themselves, it's gonna be really fun to watch the AFC West in 2026 with the different stories that we have there. You know, whether or not Patrick Mahomes can come back healthy, what you have with Rishi Rice, how washed up as a play-caller and coach is Andy Reed, does the addition of these good running backs make a difference? And do they lean into that early in the season? As has been discussed, certainly because of the Mahomes injury and the running back additions, you have some interesting choices that you'll have to answer when you do projections for the chiefs. And then with the Broncos, you have that Wattle addition, but not just that you have Davis Webb and one of the things they've been talking about is Davis Webb. In terms of the very early stuff, they're doing practice-wise, running more up tempo and the team and him wanting to run up tempo and whether or not they'll be able to convince Sean Payton to do that. That could be a pretty meaningful difference for the Denver Broncos. I certainly think that one of the most difficult running back questions to answer is there with RJ Harvey. And a lot of people are focusing on Jonah Coleman, but JK Dobbins is probably the best running back in football against heavy boxes and one of the vaguely surprising things. And one of the reasons I think that if you're the Denver Broncos, you are making some of these changes in the off season. Both Harvey and Dobbins faced heavy boxes at an extremely high rate, which both gets back to this idea of Dobbins being able to flourish against it after he flourished against it the previous year with the chargers. I mean, he's fantastic, right? And this is not a guy who's been a disappear for anybody, but then also helps to explain some of the issues that RJ Harvey had. Before we leave Maconkey though, or just this chargers discussion, do you have a preference at this moment? We talked about not really preferring Quentin Johnston several months ago. When in terms of mentioning the guy's going immediately ahead of him and the guy's going immediately after him is Maconkey a viable pick where he's at, given all that we don't know. But also the upside. One of the things that I was thinking about with some of these elite offenses is that anytime they're coming off of any sort of buzz and bump and the guys are expensive. I tend to think, especially maybe sometimes with the mobile QBs where you have that additional layer of how much pass volume will there actually be? You think guys like the Eagles, guys with the 49ers at some different points, not necessarily with the mobility, but with how run heavy they would be. You have the extreme efficiency numbers. Like how much efficiency do we want to chase? When they're expensive, we probably pass. When they're cheap, we probably buy. Is this cheap on Maconkey with the fall after the ADP last year that was so enthusiastic? I definitely think he's draftable for a lot of the reasons that Ryan Maiden has his argument that you're looking for ceiling and there's not a lot. I've already said on this show that there's less wide receiver ceiling this year. I think a rebound season from Maconkey that looks more similar to his rookie year in a really good offense and he's kind of the clear lead guy. Which again, I think is the point of the JSN comparison. I was just sort of saying that the outcomes can't be exactly parallel in JSN's outcome was just so dynamic because of who JSN is. But if Maconkey is his version of a JSN year three breakout, which would be, I don't know, 80% of it, that's great at that cost. I mean, that would still work very, very well. I think I've been climbed to, like, I certainly think he's draftable, but I'm inclined to be not overweight on him at that price. And because there's so much uncertainty in the different formations and all these different things to want to play this offense cheaper. So like, Aronne Gadsen is cheap enough now that I'm, I mean, maybe not an FFPC. Over on Underdog, I mean, he's going like 143 and 80Ps, Titan 16. I mean, I think at that point, because the Titan floor is, or like the replacement level, the bar to clear is lower. A lot of times when there's this kind of uncertainty, I'm like, okay, why get exposure through the Titans? I love the idea of getting some exposure to Keen Mitchell. At any cost, I mean, any reasonable cost. Omari and Hampton, I would want some of in, you know, the early stages of drafts. Although that sounds a lot like last year when I was saying, I wanted Kenneth Walker and not Jay Ascent, because I wasn't sure how the Siox offense would look. And I thought they'd be really run heavy. They were very run heavy, but they couldn't consolidate the running back work, and they could consolidate the receiving work. I mean, that's part of the thing with Jay Ascent, because there's games where he had 65% of the receiving yards. I mean, it was obscene what he was doing. And that was part of my desire to have Kenneth Walker, which we actually had the trends right, Sean, was that, you know, you're going to get more consolidation with the backs, and if it's a run heavy team, then you probably want the running back in that situation. Instead, we were right about the run heaviness. We were not right about it. You did not get more consolidation with the running backs in the receivers, which is just, one of the few teams that's ever happened ever, because typically that's not the way that that works. But for the chargers this year, I think, you know, I would want to make a similar bet for similar reasons, because it's easier to see Omari and Hampton dominate the running back production than it is to see Lad Makanke dominate all the receiver production. So I would be interested in the different backs to get exposure to this, interested in Justin Herbert for the reasons you said he could be the guy that just is the beneficiary. I'm more into Lad Makanke at his loftier price than into Quentin Johnston at his cheaper price than Lad, because I do just think Quentin Johnston has far more concerned about the usage stuff. I mean, you can look at his numbers. I've seen the arguments on social that are like, these are the things he's done through this year, and again, you get to the pattern matching stuff. Here's what it looks like compared to other players that have done this through this point in their career. And it looks good. I mean, especially the last couple of years, he had a tough first year. The problem is, is all of the unexplained variants, all the very specific stuff about Quentin Johnston. He started losing routes at the end of last year. The team is already basically like said that they don't think he's that good. They've been trying to like, gas him up and get production out of him. They've went in acquired a bunch of overlapping skill set players via the draft mostly. They were rumored to want to trade him this off season. And maybe,
couldn't find a suitor or something. I don't think he's not going to course to like you can only drop so many passes and have other teams reach out and be like, oh yeah, sure. Yeah. Yeah. We'll send you a second round pick for him. Like, no, it's not going to happen. They're like, hey, we was a first round pick and we've scored all these touchdowns. Give us, you know, a draft capital back in teams are like, well, we'll swap six. Like he's not. I don't think I don't think that's what the actual value is on Quint Johnson to be clear. But I do think that you start talking about the different formations that these teams are going to run and who gets squeezed. If a lot of a conkey plays a lot and then if Trey Harris actually is the guy in some of the one receiver formations or gets to play more just generally, go into year two. I mean, yeah, Quint's the guy that gets squeezed pretty quickly here. Part of the reason he's been so productive the last couple of years has been routes. He's been able to run a lot of them. I don't know that he's going to run a lot of them this year. So I get concerned for him. Am I wrong? I mean, Harris is a guy. I would want to play this cheaply. So Harris is another guy that I want to get into in the cheap rounds and just see what happens with the routes in the early part of the season and the usage. Is that how you would think about these different 80 piece? I guess I, I, when I have this much uncertainty, I like to play the cheaper pieces. And one of the things that you could do is, I mean, you could basically build all of your teams with Quint and Johnston plus Trey Harris or Quint and Johnston plus Brendan Thompson who's not being drafted and read draft right now. So you could basically build it with the idea of I can draft this guy. And if I need to add someone and for agency later from his team who's exciting, it doesn't even cost me an original pick. And that type of coverage for a team that we expect to be really explosive. And this is going to be one of those teams where you could run into that issue where some of these compiler types of guys, which I do think that McConkey is, even though he demonstrated explosiveness down the stretch of his rookie season, they're like, well, I wanted to get all these targets and work over the middle and do a little run after they catch and all of those types of things. Unfortunately, Hampton broke off a 70 yard run and then Mitchell broke off a 40 yard run and then the defense lost track of Thompson and he went for 60 yards. And then they actually got Quint and Johnston deep and he didn't drop it. And then we did the same thing for Trey Harris and we got to the end of the game and they're like, they just didn't need me. And I have a, it's tricky because you can add him there. I think he's a good pick there. But there is no potential for Zay flowers to have that happen to him and he's the next guy who comes off. There is very little potential for it actually happened to Luther Burton. Even though, of course, the lovelet is being drafted as though he's going to crush the receivers. And then the more I dig into it, doons, I still have, so I guess my next question for you would be with, with Burton and a doons a, that's another one that we find the, I find fascinating in terms of hard to project. I think if you look at, wait, so before we go there, I want to go there, but I want to pin you down on this. Did you? So I did want to say that my anti-Pacific Northwest, which I mean, it's talk about casting us versions in the intro. That's only on your Washington Huskies. I don't know how other Washington based teams. So, but before we go to the Bears, because that, that is a really fun one to go to next. You're, you think McConkey's ADP is fine, but you were basically saying you're kind of out on him. You'd rather go cheaper. But did I understand you right that if your idea of going cheaper was to actually draft a decent amount of Quentin Johnson? Yeah, I think, I think if your other guys are gone there, you're going to have some situations where you want to draft him. It's a fascinating area where he comes at the end of what I would consider to be the 2026 wide receiver window. Right? And if you look at the actual two guys, he sandwiched between, you're probably like, those players are fun, or at least if you're me, you know, these other two players are fun. Right before him is Xavier Worthy. We obviously know all of the stuff with that. The player right after him is Matthew Golden. And I mean, Ben, I believe in production about everything in part because I think it gives you a really good sign of what the player is going to do. And production tells you what the player is going to do. Right? They're going to be themselves. And people who've been good are going to be good. That's one of the reasons we can actually count on college players more than people think. Players who are good continue to be good. I also like it because it's democratic, right? And people are being given credit for what they have done. And so, you know, you have the meritocracy there. I do think that Matthew Golden, when you look at Matthew Golden versus Christian Watson, they're at 29 right ahead of Carnell Tate. And Christian Watson is very fun, but you're going to draft him ahead of Tate ahead of Marvin Harrison ahead of Jordan Tyson. That one I have a lot of trouble with, even as a Christian Watson fan. That makes no sense. Jaden Reed obviously has the problem of not playing in three receiver sets. One of the things I think will be interesting with the heavy packages is whether or not we have some of these guys who have traditionally not played in those sets. If the offense finds way to, ways to sneak some of these guys in. Right? If you have, and one of the things that maybe I wasn't as aware of that, gives me a little bit of hope is that Jaden Reed's route percentage, his snap percentage, his being on the fieldness in the three receiver sets was so much higher than the other guys that he gets some of it back. And so then the big problem you're looking at with the Green Bay Packers guys is just that none of them run enough routes. And then you get back to this Christian Watson price and you're like, yeah, that price doesn't work. But maybe someone like Reed has their role evolve. They're really high visibility guy who had that. But it's enough different than the tiny dudes that probably doesn't really give you direction. Would be like a Cooper cop. But when you're talking about players that you like like Jaden Reed and Josh Downs and you're like, they would be awesome if they just played more. I think we have to be open to the idea that they will play more. It's probably not going to happen. And so then when you look back down at Matthew Golden, you're like, that dude is all hope. But he's all hope at a price where you're not actually paying for the production and the upside is staggering. And so when you think about having worthy there who could be the Chiefs Wide receiver one, having Golden there who could be the Packers Wide receiver one, those are a couple interesting guys to be in the same area. It's right after some of the players we like but who are in terrible circumstances in Jordan, Addison and Casey, concepts young. I mean those guys go ahead of Quentin Johnston. If I didn't know anything about what the teams were going to be like with the situations and we like I mean like I would want Jordan Addison and Concepts young like five rounds ahead of Quentin Johnston until you realize what the environment is and then you're like yeah, you're just going to keep them on your roster every week and maybe next week I could play them. Maybe next week I could play them. Addison's going to be good at this year. I'm still in. Concepts young. I think that situation's going to be really hard. This is interesting because I was looking at Underdog and I pull up FFPC while you're talking Quentin Johnston's Wide receiver 49 on FFPC for people that are doing more on Underdog Quentin Johnston's Wide receiver 43. That's six Wide receiver slot is pretty meaningful. So on Underdog, were these going 10 picks later, Golden's going 16 picks later, they're not even really going in the same pocket of draft. It's around to around and a half later. And I saw Ricky Peersol going almost 10 picks later on Underdog and Peersol is another one. And when you said it was kind of the end of the Wide receiver window, I was like oh that's interesting and then you started saying those other names and so I pulled up the FFPC tool at Rotovist and on FFPC Peersol is going wider receiver 41 eight spots ahead of eight Wide receiver spots ahead of Quentin Johnston, almost two full rounds ahead of him and then over on Underdog, Peersol is going 10 picks behind him. And I'm not like a super big Peersol fan, but I do think Peersol is very draftable in this range. And so when you had first said the window was closing, I'm looking at it going, there's a lot of receivers after him that I would take. But over on FFPC, little different when you get into that Wide receiver 50 range as you are just talking through. So I understand your perspective a little bit more from that regard. It's a meaningful change to drop that far down the Wide receiver list when we start talking about when you do hit the Wide receiver window closing. Like for example, he's at Wide receiver 49 on FFPC or what I'm looking at has worthy at 50 and golden at 51. You have probably different dates set. So you have worthy ahead of Johnston. So you may have Johnston Wide receiver 50 over there. Regardless, 52 right behind golden on my list is Romeo Dobbs. And I think we both would probably agree that Dobbs is more like the outside of the Wide receiver window. He's interesting. He can score some points. He can probably be okay for you in Bestball, but in Redraft, we're not going to be excited about drafting Romeo Dobbs. That's the kind of guy. It's going to run a lot of routes, etc. Especially if AJ Brown's on that team, Romeo Dobbs is an outside the Wide receiver window low ceiling veteran pick that running back early drafters like to make that type of pick we do not in that range usually draft that type of a player. Quinn Johnson is going just a few picks before Dobbs on FFPC.
over on underdog, you're talking about, I gotta do mental math, 22 picks different on underdog between before dogs hits. And so underdog is where I was making the case earlier, Quentin Johnson was meaningfully over price. I think he was going even higher than this. He's at 80p 92 now. I think his 80p was in the 80s, maybe even the high 80s, maybe even into the 70s. I can't recall what it was earlier this year, but I was like, this guy's like multiple rounds mispriced. Because of the fact that I do think there are scenarios where he just doesn't run all that many routes, he's gonna run some and he's gonna have some efficient places, gonna score some touchdowns. There's enough of a skill set there, there's enough of a production history there. They're going to use this freak athlete and it's a really good offense and it's gonna be favorable when he's out there. Like his per-route stuff is probably gonna look very good. But I do think there's a potential to really get squeezed for routes and that's sort of the big concern. 'Cause I don't think the skill set is as dynamic as like the athleticism and everything suggests. And I think the team knows this and I think they're concerned about it. And I think that's why they continue to add other skill sets to do different things. And so to me, Johnson's more actually on the outside of the White receiver window, I would rather take the worthy and golden upside 'cause I think there is a potential for a lot more routes and ceiling and break out. And I'm not, especially with golden, I'm not considered, and I'm not super optimistic. The worthy thing, I mean, we're always gonna be probably too optimistic on guys that we were previously optimistic on and then get cheaper and then, yeah, I mean, worthy is going so low at this point that like, we believe the thesis before, we can certainly tell ourselves that that week one shoulder separation was a pretty big deal for his second season. He was a 21 year old rookie. The guy's still super young. Yeah, we're gonna talk ourselves in just a minute. - He's younger than Mike. - I mean, most of the rookies. - Just to make up a number. He's younger than, yeah, exactly. Most of the rookies. - Yeah, he's, this dude, like I was making the whole point last off season, he was 21 until April. So he was 22 until April this year. He just turned 23 like a month ago. There's a lot of 23 year old rookies that are coming out in this class. Like it's the way that it works. It's guys still super young. So yeah, if you're a stealing man as fan and you're sick of how much we talked about and say if you're worthy last year, guess what, you're in for it again this year. We're proud for you. - We're just gonna allude to it like we have here. - Yeah, we're gonna actually probably not spend too much time on him, but he will wind up on some of our teams. I can pretty much guarantee that. But yeah, after that point, Romeo Dobbs, the next receivers, Jayden Higgins. I think he's somewhat interesting. Khalil Shakir definitely concerned about him. Now that DJ Moore's there, Jaylen Koker comes in at Widersiever 55. Love that guy. Classic case of a guy you could get in round 20 last year and I was telling you to draft and now he's going right up behind that Widersiever window. 'Cause as soon as a guy like this has a good year, that's where they rise to. He's a Widersiever too. Yeah, for sure, it's not a past game you want a lot of exposure to. I can't even get that excited about Teteroma Millen because of this passing game. It's gonna be hard for me to take Jaylen Koker there. I mean, that is, I agree with you. That is where that part of the Widersiever window closes. I think though what we saw last year, and this is why we were taking Trayvon Henderson and RJ Harvey in the Dead Zone and some of those things, that there's also a Widersiever window that closes. Like there's sort of two now because there's the elite receivers and they do differentiate. And I mean, that one might close really early. I think AJ Brown still has a lot of ceiling at Widersiever 12. I don't think that I want Chris Alave to be in that group at Widersiever 11. So that's about the transition. George Pickens at Widersiever 13 to me is just a little bit overpriced off a good outcome for his type of player. I mean, last year I was saying Pickens should be going similar to T Higgins and I wasn't taking a lot of Higgins in this range and I want to pickens cheaper and now they've sort of flipped and Higgins has fallen and I would rather just take Higgins cheaper than Pickens at this point. They're sort of similar working off in a elite number one with a good quarterback and the various things that set up for them. Higgins isn't quite as cheap as Pickens was last year, but it is sort of a similar dynamic and I would rather play those guys when they're a little bit cheaper. Neighbors at Widersiever 10, Nico Collins at nine, Rishi Rice at eight, Drake London at seven. That's sort of an interesting range. Neighbors health permitting the other three, some other situational stuff. The only guys that I feel super, like I feel like there's almost a drop off after six after Justin Jefferson and CD Lam are five, six. Like those are the, there's six dudes that Tamir at some point between Jefferson and when we get down to like the Lava and Pickens, that's a tear break. Like and there's a meaningful tear break and those are the guys and go for 1500 yards and no one else can anymore. I mean, not literally no one else can, but it's, you almost need to think of it that way. And that's part of why I get back to this thing where people are like, they wanna go really running back heavy again and I'm like, all right, but if you're gonna leave me CD Lam Justin Jefferson at the one two turn and they wind up as the Widersiever one, Widersiever two, it's gonna be a lot like when you wrote the Zero RB thesis. When you like, you could get two legit superstar wide receivers. You didn't used to be able to do this. And in a landscape, the big thing about when you wrote that back then was there was a landscape like this where there weren't as many great wide receivers. We had a little bit of a different league for a while there. 2018, 19, 2020, passing numbers were up, man, passing numbers are back down. Go look at the lead wide numbers. Like the yards per game passing has fallen back down a little bit. Certainly, I mean, we know that and it makes it. So yeah, you were, so let's go to the bears. 'Cause Roma Dunes A is the next, you know, Luther Burton comes in, Roma Dunes A comes in as I'm looking through this ADP, Burton at the four or five turn, a Dunes A at the five, six turn. Those are guys that I'm really into. Well, Burton, I'm really into and a Dunes A I am from a perspective that I don't think they can be as good as those top six and whoever else can be that elite, which like, again, I think AJ Brown can be. So like, I think that first wide receiver tier break is somewhere in there. It's a big tier break. Wide receiver elite wide receiver window closes somewhere in there. I don't know who's in front of it or who's behind it yet necessarily because it's mag. I think the bears guys are probably behind it. I think Burton has the potential and this is what's so exciting about him to be such a breakout that he moves in front of it. I don't know what a Dunes A does, but I do think, I don't know where you were gonna go with that, but I'm getting to the point with a Dunes A. Like I saw a highlight the other day, Caleb chucking a bomb to him and, I mean, he's gonna run a ton of routes again and I think that office is gonna be good. I think Ben Johnson's gonna be one of the better, you know, scheme designers and play callers and things in the league. I do think a Dunes A is gonna produce probably. You left a lot of points on the field last year. A lot of drops we talked about that. I still think he's probably good enough to produce and be a high floor type player. I understand why people would wanna take him in best ball. And if we're in a league where there's not that much elite wide receiver ceiling, I mean, can wide receivers like him? I mean, is a round four and round five sort of a wide receiver dead zone? Is one question I have? And then if it is, it's very similar to a running back dead zone. And from the perspective, the way I always define the dead zone was elite ceilings and the running backs in that range could be small hits, but they could also be big misses. The difference with receivers is you don't get the big miss risk quite as much, which for running backs, I would be thinking about the guys that just lose their jobs. Chupa Hubbard was going in that range last year, lost his job to Rico Dattel for a long stretch. That is a big miss in addition to injury rates, but wide receivers get hurt too. People like to point out, but running backs can just lose all the work and that can be a huge issue. A dunesay would be to me more like a small hit in this range, but also probably small miss. I don't think I'm seeing him as a big miss player in that offense with the routes that he's likely to get. Is that type of a receiver draftable as one of the big questions I'm asking myself in the round four or five range? I want to ask you as we talk about the bears. And my thinking of bird no dunesay correctly is the other question. Like what are you seeing with those guys? - So the thing that really caused me to pause when I was going through the rankings was to jump into the numbers and see this relationship between the big first month that a dunesay had and when he suffers the injury that makes it more difficult for him to perform. And so much of the uncertainty that we have and I think when we end up missing on players, especially young players potentially, is when they're just playing very hurt and then you're like, "Oh, well this guy can't play 'cause he's not efficient." And we know the stars don't perform like this. You also have this catch point element where through the first two years he's been terrible. And I think that that for me makes it feel like he can't be a star because he doesn't have the ability to consistently go and make the big plays that we need to see from the stars. But the flip side of that is that even someone like a Jammar chase is all over the place in terms of how many passes he ends up dropping. And you still have this question with Burden where he did some really good things for them and on a per-play basis, you have the efficiency that you're looking for, you have the separation, you have the yards after the catch dynamic, you have him moving in the right direction and now because it was a Ben Johnson draft pick, you're like, "It's obviously gotta be him."
taking over especially as they move DJ more out of there. I think you have to draft burden. I think burden is a fun play. One of the things that I really look for from almost all of the receivers that I want to draft is that they're good after they have the ball. That just gives you so much more upside and so much more that you can rely on. But I do want to question myself on believing that Adunzai is either completely a bust which almost certainly isn't true or that there's not still some potential. One of the things that we get kind of lost with on some of the guys now as the NFL is sort of shifting so quickly in the draft and basically I mean the college football is shifting where you have the NIL, you have the transfers, you have so much cross incentives, different incentives than you had in the past and it may change what we see in terms of the trajectory for players and what that means for them transitioning to the NFL. But Adunzai, you know part of my thought on Adunzai always still comes back to this idea that he was overdrafted by the Bears and then he should have been more of a like a number 30 pick guy and if he had been picked at the edge of the first and second rounds in reality we would have a little bit of a different framework for what the expectations should have been, what was realistic, how he's moving through, sometimes having less of a contrast between what was hoped and what's happened actually helps you a bit in terms of thinking the guy could do a little bit more in the future. But the Bears are also one of these fun teams in terms of having a very wide range of outcomes even though I think we know who's going to play which is different than the charter situation. It could be the Colson Lovelin show, it could be Luther Burton, it could be Roma Dunes' A Bouncing Back. I mentioned at the beginning that one of the things that I thought was frustrating about Kyler Murray is that he doesn't hold the ball and then throw it. The only person who had a longer time to throw in the NFL last year than Caleb Williams was shoulder at the Anders. He's going to hold the ball, hold the ball, hold the ball and then he's going to try and make a hero play and sometimes he does. That willingness of Williams to hold the ball and throw is one of the things that robs us of the hybrid value he should have as a QB. But I think it also opens up this really fun scenario for a Dunes day where he ends up being one of the massive hits from this season and ends up being an AERYAR guy where suddenly those AERYARs are converted to higher rate. He's like at 50% catch rate through the first two NFL seasons. Even if he continues to play about the way that he has, that is going to improve. As long as he doesn't play worse and getting benched as a separate question, then what is catch rate ends up being? But he's not going to continue to catch only 50% of his targets. I don't think he can get benched. So the broad and coley frame end who the Lions always, he was always good on a per out basis, but they always use him as like a rotational fourth receiver. Even when he was like awesome on a per out base, like over two yards per out run, they never really wanted him to be a full-time guy because they use him on some special team stuff and different things. They drafted Xavier and Thomas and round three. People didn't really like him in the dynasty space, but like I think I took him in at least one rookie draft. We talked about him. Did we take him together? We may have taken him together because he's like blazing fast and we're like Ben Johns, you were saying to me, people think he's just a special teams guy. He's going to be a returner, but like Ben Johns is talking about using that speed on offense. Ben Johns basically just came out and said, it doesn't matter if you're good. If you're fast, I can scheme you open. You're going to have manufactured touch glory. We don't care that you didn't do anything in college. And you're like, well, I mean, couldn't you have drafted someone who has that and was also good, but he's like, no, no, we don't need that. We don't need that. Having said that, he's probably not going to be a superstar on day one, right? Like so like, who else is this is the competition for wider C for three. They burn Scotty Miller, like some of the other guys from last year like today Walker, like it's nobody. It's Luther Burton and Roma Dunes. And then it's again, this is a multi tie-dance set situation. It's a similar thing to what we talked about with the lab mcconkie, JSN sort of pattern matching. Like, yeah, these guys are going to run more routes against two tight end. They already probably ran a lot more last year than a mcconkie did. That was part of the point of the mcconkie thing was he didn't run a lot in multi-tied ends. That's last year. Colson leveling, Cole, then they draft Sam Roushin round three, who is like one of the more interesting tight ends that people aren't talking about a ton because he's so buried, but he's actually like a really interesting profile as I understand it. You would know better than me. But so you know, you have three interesting tight ends. And they're going to play a lot of two tight end. I mean, this is going to be one of the big teams for two tight end. And it's going to be a Dunesay and Burton. You know, Cole for Naiveman's going to work in there, but I don't know how a Dunesay gets benched. Like, you would have to go like exclusively two tight end and play Luther Burton and Cole frame in and then mix in some Xavier and Thomas when you go to three receivers. I mean, just you, Roman Dunesay is going to run a lot of routes. You just can't go in the other direction with this receiving core. And so if you're that, you know, enthusiastic about the potential for the skill stuff to work his in his favor. I mean, I that is, it got my eyebrows raised because I've been thinking about him as like the guy that I always have been framing him in my mind is Corey Davis was another top 10 pick that was a four year player was not an early to clear. He even had a lot more production than a Dunesay, especially earlier on at his time. What was in Western Michigan in college, but Corey Davis always wound up being like a solid number two, a productive player, fantasy relevant at times, especially in deeper leagues. He's always rostered, but not a star. Never good enough for us to justify a top 10 overall, you know, draft selection. And that's what a Dunesay's career has looked like from a shape perspective to me early. They even play similarly like they are somewhat similar players for sure. Size and a lot of those things, but you're seeing as, you know, potential for a step forward with him. I am having a little bit of a hard time with burden because burdens thing like there's a lot of like we want to get back to the pattern matching like he's ran a lot of the same routes that Almanar, St. Brown ran in the Ben Johnson offense and all those things. I have real concerns with his limited routes in year one like we want to go to Almanar, St. Brown Almanar, St. Brown when he broke out as a late late season rookie was running all the routes like he was producing and he was immediately that dude and he continued to be that dude as the seasons went on. I don't know that burden is necessarily that guy and the issue with burden becomes one of we're all super stoked about how good his yards per out run were and his per out metrics were, but they were unlimited routes and you can say, okay, well, that's a small sample issue. It's a small sample issue for sure. There's a bigger issue at play there, which is the issue that I brought up repeatedly last summer with Marvin Mims. The routes were limited to the specific types of routes that were more likely to be ball and hand stuff and things for him to succeed, which is why his per out metrics were better. If he ran more routes, which is a problem that he didn't, his yards per out run almost certainly would have came down. You have to you can't fill in the routes that he didn't run at 2.5 yards per out run. You have to understand that a full route share 2.5 yards route per run is better than a limited one. And I also I want to emphasize this is different than when a guy gets hurt but was running full routes when he was healthy. It's not just a, so if you want to do research on this, look at like average route per cent by game or something. Don't look at total routes because there will be players that get thrown in there that ran a certain amount of total routes that only played 10 games. But if they're playing every snap and then they're putting up like Stefan Diggs last year, Sean had like a 2.5 yards per out run for the Patriots. He was playing though. He was healthy the whole year, but just not running a lot of routes. They were using him situation only because he's at old dude and then they were throwing two moves on the field and taking him off when he was very unlikely to get the targets. It's shocking when you go back and look through it. Like how exaggerated it was of how efficient he was and how little he played on a team that was desperate for a receiving production. And that's just not going to be the same as a guy who ran all the routes and put up a huge like when I talked about Justin Jefferson being a 2.5 yards per out run guy every year was career up until last year. He's been doing that while playing every single snap. So burden is not the same as Mims. I want to be clear. Mims only ran 190-something routes. It was under 200. And that's why I kept hammering it. He was living on swing routes and deep shots. And he had nothing in the intermediate. And I was like you can't run 500 routes only running swing routes and deep shots. You have to start running some dig routes and some ins and outs and curls and whatever. And he didn't even get to run though. So it's not only that we can't give him a 2.5 yards per out run for those unrun unran routes. We should probably assume that he's inefficient on those if the team was not using him in those ways because it would have been nice to just keep on the field for everything. Right. And so that was my concern as people were taking that and going while he was really efficient. He's going to get more volume. We know efficiency leads to volume. But it was a very specific type of usage. Burden stuff not like that. Burden ran all the different routes. He ran curls. He ran in breakers. He ran all the stuff. It's just that they weren't always leaning on him. When they turned Colson Lovelin loose late in the year, Colson Lovelin was running routes on like 80% of dropbacks, which is I think that most high dens don't do frankly. And he did that the last few games of the regular season and most of the post season until I think the game they were eliminated. I think he got hurt. So if you if you go, you know, look at this is routes will be a little lower in that final game. But the first post season game and then weeks like 18 and 17 and 16 and 15.
maybe I can't remember exactly what the numbers all are. But then did they play, did they play to the NFC championship or did they play three postseason games last year? - They had the overtime loss that got to them in there, but then they were-- - And he got a concussion in that game. - Did he not? - I don't know. - Bear your team. I think he got banged up in that game. So his routes weren't quite as high in that game against the Rams if I remember. Anyway, my point was that when the Bears were ready to turn Colson Lovelin loose, his routes got way up to 80%. Birden never got there. And he got up to like 60% before Lovelin did. But he just like hovered in that range. 67%, 70%, you know, wasn't getting up much higher. I'm concerned about that. But with DJ Morgan, it does feel like Birden is going to-- like the same reason I just said it about a dunesay. Birden's gonna have to play into receiver sets. He's gonna have to play on every down. I don't think they really have a lot of other options. They really liked him last year. They were talking about the off season. And then he got hurt a little bit early in camp. They said he fell behind. I mean, I think some of that maybe played throughout the year. I'm expecting Birden to get a lot more routes this year and to be a lot better and to-- I'm very optimistic. It's not the same as Marvin Mims where I was pessimistic about how that could translate. I'm optimistic, Birden stuff can translate. But you do have to keep in mind the per-route numbers were juiced a little bit by slight situational usage and coming off the field on other plays. There's a kind of various project as one of the most fun teams in the NFL. But it is a little bit of a problem that you're not getting good prices on any of the guys. You're not getting a good price on Colson Loveland. You're not getting a good price on Luther Bern. You're getting an interesting price on Roma dunesay. But it's still-- even though I like the potential for this scenario where he actually jumps back closer to what people are thinking, it's not a good price for that. And then you even look at someone like Caleb Williams who is sandwiched between Jalen Hertz and Justin Herbert. And that's not a good price for what he potentially delivers either. It doesn't mean that they couldn't have individual hits in there, but they're priced up. And so especially with that being the case, you have to be, I think, very tactical in terms of how you create exposure to them. One of the things with the dunesay is that you have James and Williams right after him. He probably has more upside but a lot more downside than Williams. The guys who become very complicated than later in that round are the rookies. Because you have this tension between what Carl Nelltate and Jordan Tyson are going to do in the first 5, 6, 7, 8 weeks of the season when you need to win to advance. You've got to get into the playoffs for the rest of the stuff to matter. But it would be pretty surprising at this point. Or just when you think about the range of outcomes for the guys and the potential upside for elite rookies, with Tate being in a situation where he does project as the one, even though it's a one with probably more target competition than a lot of people are thinking. And then with Jordan Tyson being in the situation where-- I think he's going to be the one as well. Sooner than people think, Olave, very good at what he does, but a very limited receiver-- certainly a limited receiver for the amount of volume he got last year-- you think about the dome, you think about the incredibly easy schedule that the Saints have. When you're talking about setting your starting lineup in weeks 13 and 14 to win your league title, when you're talking about setting your starting lineup in 15, 16, and 17 to win the million dollars, you're just going to strongly prefer to have Jordan Tyson in there. Or is that how you're seeing it as well? Versus Tate. Versus Roma Junsei. Versus Junsei? Oh, yes. No, I would see it the same way. Yeah, I assume you're going to want the breakout upside rookies in those spots. I was getting a little distracted because you were talking about how the Bears are so expensive, and I was looking at the running back process, too. Dionter, what's going on in the fifth round? Kalmanangai is going on in the eighth round. Like the early eighth. I mean, how do you pay those prices? Their enthusiastic prices. I mean, it's one where in almost any season, you'd be like, just take Kalmanangai, right? That you want the cheaper of the two guys, you want the backup, you want the lesser part of the committee, who could leapfrog the starter. But they're going so close together. Deandre Swift's metrics did bounce back last season. Deandre Swift has been a good running back when he's not-- any Deandre Swift is weird, right? He's a tough evaluation because his numbers are weird. But he has the potential to be a clear cut starting running back. And now he's a clear cut starting running back for the Bears. And the reason that he's not going earlier is because the backup or his committee mate is being drafted close to him. But the reason that the committee mate is appealing is because the rushing offense is so explosive. I like Kalmanangai. They're element-- me, you watch him. You're like, oh, like the scouting term of the great contact balance. You look at some of the numbers I had mentioned. They're not his final season in college, but his second to last season in college. His SIS points above average per attempt for fantastic. This guy can run. But it's-- I mean, there's not like stardom here. You're talking about a pedestrian back from an explosiveness perspective. You're really buying the Chicago offense. Right. I want to buy their back. Right? I mean-- Yeah. You've given me-- You've given me-- Yeah. You've convinced me. I was saying it's tough to pay those prices just because it's like these two guys at high. But you want exposure to the Bears back. It's really annoying this is happening again this year because we knew it last year. And it was like, it can't just be like the guys that they have. And I didn't want to draft any of the guys that they actually had. It was like, it's going to be some other random name off whatever. They're going to get a trade or something. They're just going forward with the same dudes. I was hoping they acquired somebody. I could just draft a ton of that guy. Yeah. I think you convinced me that you probably want to-- because I do think with Menongai, you're betting into the rushing offense more than the player. He's interesting. I agree with you. He was surprisingly viable to me, to my eye as well. He talked about some of the contact-balanced stuff. But the same exact scouting report in my mind in terms of what I saw when I was watching the games. He's not dynamic. And Deandre Swift isn't either, but he's gotten more potential to do. So I'm terrified of the injury potential for Swift as well. But I don't think-- yeah, I was making that case during the season. I remember there was points where people were saying, Menongai is going to take over and the rookie's going to take over. And I was making the case in stealing signals. Like Deandre just was just been better. He's just the better back. If you watch these games, he looks better. He's been better. And so I don't think this is an inevitable rookie take over when the veteran is just better. And anyway, you just made that case really convincingly as well. That Deandre Swift's probably a dead zone back worth making some selections there. But yeah. So when you mentioned the dead zone, and you kind of asked in one of the previous points along the way about these wider seabird tears, and if there were dead zones, one of my biggest takeaways from 2025 was essentially that it was unlucky to have drafted Lamar Jackson and Jaden Daniels and having had them gotten hurt or have them get hurt. But I don't think that for me that that completely absolves me from what I do think was a tactical mistake of saying, OK, we ran into a flat spot. And so it was OK to pivot to QB. Certainly, I don't think that you can't ever do that. But one of the things that became clear is some guys did hit from that range. And it was sort of a simultaneous thing where I felt like my biggest evaluation mistake last year was James Cook. And because he actually was right there in the spot, where we were interested in some of the QBs, you had the doubling effect or just-- I mean, it was a gigantic problem that he scored from there and we took QBs that got hurt. I do think you have to go through evaluations. And you can say, I don't like players in this range. And you can also, I think, maybe show some patience or some discipline on pulling up your favorite rookies. I mean, that would be the other thing that didn't necessarily help was that-- one of the things that I think people miss both in terms of the Jonah Coleman selection and looking at him in general is that RJ Harvey had some terrible rushing metrics last year. And yet, he still scored a ton of points. It wasn't really a point problem exactly. But it's this question of what part of it will the Broncos be looking at for next year. But I think if we want to balance this idea of discipline on pulling up the guys that we really like, discipline on maybe not ever taking the plunge on early QBs, which is how we've always done it except for making those couple picks last year. It's certainly a unique situation because in most years, you were not actually looking at a range that early and saying, I don't like the players. It was the case last year. It was probably mostly true that those guys were bad picks other than James Cook. You're not always just going to hit on the right guy because you're like, ah, you've got to take somebody not a QB. It's a relief.
to me that I don't have flat areas in this year's draft. And I think that partly because these running backs are pulled up so far that there are fun receivers through it to where if you're saying, you know, you want a draft running backs, especially in FFPC format where it's a 2 2 2. But it's just, it's very different, I think, than when you're looking at Bestball, a 2 3 1 and that's, you know, true of a redraft 2 3 1 as well. But what you need and what you can do with receivers is different than the 2 2 2 where you also have the tight end premium and tight ends are so potentially effective in the flex. So you can take those running backs early and I do think a lot of the running backs in the first two rounds are fun. But you're pushing things down. You talked about the potential for a 0 RB. If you have the, you know, the last pick and a lot of people are going to not like the last pick for obvious reasons. When you have the last pick you're getting the worst pick in the first round, you all start in a situation where when you're at the turn, you're not nearly as well positioned to take advantage of values because you've got to make two picks in a row. There are some huge weaknesses to having that pick. And yet you mentioned how you could start CDLAM Justin Jefferson, which so many of the teams that we've had in the past that destroyed their leagues went on to finish in the top 50 of the sprint. Were teams that started with two elite guys out of 112 and 201. You can come back and I think it is the case that Milan because of Bryce Young and you know, people will point out that Bryce Young had some good deep throws last year. When you look at the number of deep attempts, when you look at the situation, I think it cuts against, I made the case that SIS really liked the second half of his 2024 season. I think there were some numbers from some other sites that disputed that to an extent, but I thought also watching him that he played well. When you think about 2025, there's really nothing about it where you're like, oh, like he's unlocking this offense by making these deep throws. Like Milan was good though. And you have that potential second year true explosion for someone. You can go lamb Jefferson, like Milan, Garrett Wilson for your four guys to start. And you can probably then just do whatever you want because your team is going to be very, very good. But I do continue to like the receivers in 5, 6, 7 and 8 as well. And it's kind of funny because I think one of the reasons I've gotten off of zero RB a little bit in recent years is partly just that fantasy football has changed. But then there also have been these environments in which I liked late wide receivers. And that's probably me just actually getting worse at fantasy football because the late guys don't score points. But when you think about the late picks, I mean all those Broncos receivers we took last year and scored points for us. I'm afraid. And then we did some huge things for us. I was about Malik Washington because what if Tyree Kell got hurt and then Tyree Kell got hurt and then Malik Washington reminded us that he's a Malik Washington. That one was disappointing. I mean, Quinn Johnson, someone who was undrafted a lot and actually added after week one was good. I mean, Quinn Johnson just a very good example just from last year. Obviously back before people were looking at the rookies quite the same way, Justin Jefferson scored huge points out of there. And who obviously scored two points out of there. When I say nobody scores, I mean, obviously you're talking about a low hit rate. But when you think about this season, we assess sort of after Matthew Golden, the picks are not right. I mean, like the Jaden Higgins pick, but I mean, the Texans are probably have it as their goal to have the NFL's greatest defense and like the most boring offensive all time. If they could have the perfect 2026, they'd be like, let's be the greatest defense ever and it's bland and offense as you've seen in your entire life. So for Jaden Higgins, I mean, that's, that's tough even though still kind of like the player there. But then once you drop down further, it's like, maybe you just dash Travis Hunter and see how things play out. It's an embarrassing trade if he doesn't end up playing some on offense. You have Tyree Kill who is going to play later in the year kind of a black box in terms of where he's still at. You have Dejeon, you have Dejeon struggling. My favorite name in the draft, I'm going to say it properly. And a potential starting wide receiver for the San Francisco 49ers to run after the catch, round 17, Tray Harrison, round 18, you have Zach Ryap branch. There, I think it's a good fit for what his offense needs to do. You mentioned Calvin Ridley, he's going at the very end here. I mean, there's, there's a player who has a J starting both of his names who's going to be like the number one target for NFL team this year who is in this, you know, bottom five rounds. Ted Hurst. I honestly don't even know who your top, oh, Jerry Judy took me a minute. The listeners are like, Ben, figure it out. We know exactly what he's talking about. Yeah, I think you can add some guys on to the end of your roster to where it feels like a running back in wide receiver. You get your tight ends in the tight end dead zone. You add some flyer tight ends. You get your wide, I mean, you get your QBs, you draft two QBs in the QB window. Guys who are going, QBs who are going after the last like reasonable player at running back in wide receiver who have scored huge points in one of the last couple seasons, including Brock Purti, Patrick Mohm's, Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, kind of the Maria's going there, Bonix is going there. You can obviously just take two QBs late in that range. And then I think you can get back to picking some more receivers, which is kind of a weird thing to say. The running back group late does not appeal to me particularly at this point or the guys who appeal to me are not being drafted at all. And I'm just excited to put in dark quest Hunter Beds on every team in week five. The dark was Hunter experience is going to be fun again this year. So your overall point was that there are players late again this year. You want to take receivers late again this year? Yeah, like some of the receivers late. Yeah, I mean, I think Ridley's a really interesting one. You mentioned him. They brought in Wanda Robinson. They paid him a bunch of money. Obviously, I like Wanda, the listeners know that. And he earns targets. Also they brought in Daniel Belinger. What's his face, Dable brought him in and they already have Gunner Helm and they drafted a tight end in round seven and they brought in Kyle and Granson and they've got a bunch of different tight ends now. And I think they're going to be a team that does some two tight end stuff probably. And I'm wondering if Wanda Robinson is going to be out the field. Like if you want to talk about guys that are going to be on the field and two wide receiver sets, it's probably going to be carnal Tate and Calvin Ridley, assuming Ridley's like we still get like money on his contract. A.O. Manor and DK were around day three guys who played a lot last year because they didn't have other receivers and both put up yards, brought runs about one very bad numbers. Everyone got fired. They have a whole new staff. Like why would those guys play at all? Frankly, I honestly think like you're looking at Ridley as probably an every down player in three receiver sets with Tate and Robinson. And I mean, I think there's some minor concerns in the tape profile that we've talked about. Not very good ball in hand. Not very good at a lot of different depths. Like he got a lot of deep air yards production. He's going to make those plays. He's going to have some big plays down the field. That's what he's good at. He went in the top five for a reason. But he's not a top five pick in most years drafts. I don't think I don't think like the profile is quite as good as a draft capital in a vacuum fields. And even for the good rookies, they don't step in and dominate targets right away. We talked about this in past years where I pointed out that even the ones that were good, Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, the stat I always gave was that they were two either targets a game or receptions a program. I can't remember because it was years ago better in year two than year one. They became something much more in their second season. And those were guys that were hits from week one of as rookies that gets back to some old pack Korean research where rookie year breakouts tend to do it more on efficiency because they tend to average a little bit less route volume, even controlling for the late season, you know, bump stuff. For the guys that play all year, still tend to be a little bit more about efficiency when they hit. Anyway, it takes potentially going to be good. But if you're taking Tate as early as you are, I don't understand why you wouldn't be taking Ridley as late as he's going because I think he's going to be running routes in the same offense. And Ridley on a per out basis still good was actually improved last year over his prior year. So that was in yard receiver the year prior for Tennessee. I don't think he's like a lock to be great, but it's weird to me that he's going wide receiver
80 after, I mean, a lot of the dudes say he's going after. I honestly, I think Calvin is going to run a lot of routes this year. I don't know who else is going to alongside them. Why no Roberts, it's great, but he's a slot receiver. He's probably not taking Ridley off the field and two receiver sets. Then we talked so much last off season about, and the off seasons before that, to any extent, about how Wondell Robinson had been more of a vertical receiver in college. He was 14th in the NFL in yards last season on passes that traveled 15 plus yards in the air. That's mind-boggling. I mean, I think at this point, everyone knows that his target volume over the last two years is extraordinary. But he did actually, one of the reasons he scored, so many of me had four wide receiver one finishes last year after not having any the previous season. Four 20 plus games last year after having no wide receiver one finishes the previous season. He's a fascinating one. I have some trepidation about jumping back in on him and just being wrong every year, having Wondell Robinson join the ranks of guys that I liked but have always mistimed. And yet, the more I look into it, I do think the Titans end up being interesting because they have more target congestion than maybe people will realize that. Right. The team that's my point, I'm in on Robinson 2 to be clear at his price. And I don't even like, I don't want to be completely out on tape. Like I've tried to walk back that take the target. It's going to be concentrated, dude. That was my main point. And that's why like the fact that Ridley's going so late is the one that I'm fixating on. But I agree with you. Wondell Robinson's interesting too. Now the team that has the most target congestion in the entire NFL. And we do need to wrap this up. So I mean, don't feel like you have to dive into this if you don't want. You haven't even said the question. But when have I ever felt like I didn't need to dive into a question? What? I wanted to set that up for the listeners or something. So they're like, okay, we're stopping. But he asked a question. So I've got another half hour of content. The Jacksonville Jaguars have. Hey, Walker Washington hour going wide receiver 34. They have Brian Thomas going wide receiver 35. They have the very good, but not remotely fantasy viable. Jacobi Myers somehow going wide receiver 43. And you're like, what does that matter? Wide receiver 43. But there's still good players being drafted after that. You can't take someone who has no fantasy viability at that price. They have Travis Hunter at wide receiver 63. They have written strange. You mentioned you liking some of their depth receivers. They are likely if they can make it work to have. And Chris Rodriguez is one of the most controversial and kind of fun players because he's basically not played at the NFL level. But people think because he had good stats last year with the commanders that he could potentially beat out. You read the the Jags like fan sites like like vaguely fantasy, vaguely news, vaguely just like, you know, fan sites and they're like, Oh, Chris Rodriguez is a better fit than Bayeshell to and you're like, man, only a Bayeshell turtlene is way worse than we all hope. And then you have Trevor Lawrence who was awful in the first two thirds of the season was basically MVP in the final third of the season ran a bunch last year because he finally was just like, I can't complete passes to anybody. And the only actor passes I throw Brian Thomas drops. I'm just going to go run and beat these teams and the Jaguars were the best team in football down the stretch. I thought that they're lost in the playoffs, which was very understandable because they had a really tough first round matchup. But I thought that was unfortunate because I really thought they were the best team as the playoffs started. In part because we don't we're optimistic, but we don't know how Liam Cohen's offense is going to evolve. And he could be a bigger genius than all of these guys that we've talked about to this point. He could also be massively overhyped and the Jaguars could fall completely flat. That's one of the fun parts about this, this question and how difficult it is. I looked up a bunch of stuff on Parker Washington and how often players who have the late season, you know, run out where they're fantastic. How often a player like that with his sort of draft capital and his sort of age, how often they hit. It's basically there've been five hits and there've been 15 misses. That's maybe even more in the direction of hits than I would have guessed. And does make me think that wider C-R34 for him is okay because there is a potential for him to actually win. The reason that I don't like Jacobi Myers at his prices, there's no chance that he wins, at least by my mind. He's going to be a good possession receiver. He's going to be a good reality guy. But the winner in this is going to be Washington or it's going to be a massive bounce back from Brian Thomas, who was extraordinary across 2023 and 2024. Or it's going to be Travis Hunter, the player that you paid for in the draft as if he was the second coming of Peyton Manning. And you can talk all you want about, oh, like we've got wide receiver covered. Now he's going to actually look a little bit more to the defensive side. If he's the best wide receiver, which is what they would hope with what they paid, he's going to play some receiver. Do you have a read on this offense? Do you think this offense is fun? Are these guys overhyped and overpriced? Or is this where you would have sprinkled them in? As you kind of thinking about going into your projection of the Jacksonville Jack Rice. I know when I wrote field tippers, I called it a collectively overpriced group where I still felt like one was going to win. I'm trying to look at it now. Looks like Jacobi Myers price has fallen somewhat considerably since then. I'm looking at it because I listed the prices in that and I pulled it up while you were talking. Washington and Thomas sort of still going in the same range. Myers had fought has fallen quite a bit. I mean, I think my biggest read is that you hate Jacobi Myers again. So there's that. We got that. They treated for this guy. He had a board of moving trade in mid season and they gave him 30 million fully guaranteed extension during the season and are clearly like interested in building around this dude. Now having said that from the moment of his trade on, this is the fascinating stat from week 10 on from the point of the Jacobi Myers trade through the end of the year, including the playoffs. The guy who posted the third best yards per out reading the route run in the entire NFL behind only Pukin Akua and Jackson Smith and Jigba was Parker Washington. Jacobi Myers acquisition opened up Parker Washington. He was a stud. He finished the year above a 2.0 yards per out run, but was awesome from week 10 on. I mean, like way up there. Like that's that's the stat of, you know, that's one of the good stats that I had in the field tippers article. So Ben, let me, let me throw you my Jacobi Myers little blurb here. Right. He's a poor man's Michael Pittman. He doesn't generate air yards. He's a zero after the catch. He doesn't score touchdowns, but he draws targets like clockwork with the target share between like 21 and 25% every year. He's an awesome reality story. He's a poor fit for redraft. So my question is how much of that is is a concern and how much can you overcome if you consistently draw targets? I guess my problem would be that you do see some of these other guys who maybe don't have some of the parts you would want, but they do have this uncanny ability to draw targets. But there's a difference between like in that 21, 22, 23 range and someone who does the same thing as a 27, 28, 29. And now we're putting Myers into a situation where this target competition is brutal. And so it potentially takes away the one thing that he does really well. Yeah, no, I'm into it. I'm into being out on Myers as the least interesting of the group. I think you've sold me on that. The Parker Washington one is the one that I just I can't like get a grip on because I was talking about it was that good. And you know, I want to buy into stuff, but also prior to that last year, the first nine weeks, he wasn't very good. And he played two seasons prior to that and wasn't very good. You know, and they had less talk, talk competition earlier on. He got a little bit of work at the end of his second season when Brian Thomas was going off at the end of his rookie year. And like everyone else got hurt. Like everyone else I thought was going to contribute, got hurt or wasn't doing anything. And even still, he was only had 390 yards in that entire season. Last year, he winds up with 847, which still isn't like that great. But again, from week 10 on through the post season, guy looked like he was a top 5 wide receiver in the entire league. And so it's a really hard. At least in yards per route run. It's a really hard hard one to parse. You go look at his playoff game. They lose by three and they give him 12 targets. He has a seven reception, 107 yard, one TD game and also got two carries. They went to the post season game.
Liam Cohen was like the guy that I want to feature is Parker Washington. Brian Thomas got two targets in that postseason game. Jacobi Myers got four. Brent Strange got five. ETN got five and Parker Washington got 12. I mean, that was that was their target tree for that postseason gaming and some bills that they lost that you referenced. The only through 30 times. So whatever 12 divided by 30 is it's, uh, obviously a pretty strong 40% but then I want to, but when we think about this, right, the question that you're having and that we're all wrestling with is that when you talk about season to season and this big gap is a massive intermission, right? Anytime that the NFL is off, if you're not an absolute superstar, then the conditions that you counted on in the previous year do not necessarily apply. And certainly Parker Washington would go into that category of not a superstar. And so it's difficult to, we don't want to knock it credit. So the guys who had this kind of hit in the way that I felt before were who went on to be good later. Doug Baldwin, TJ Hushman, Zada Pierre Garzone, Adam Thielin, and then Cecil Schwarz, who hadn't good year after was obviously not as big a name as the rest of those guys. If you could get those players at this price, you'd be pretty excited. The guys who didn't hit drew Bennett Hunter Renfrel, Laurent Robinson, Lance Moore, Kamar Aiken, Nate Burleson, Mario Manningham, DJ Hackett, Michael Gallup, Gabe Davis, Rashard Matthews, Justin Gage, Marquis Goodwin, Darnel Mooney and Russell Gage. And the interesting thing there is that some of those guys are fun names. Yeah. Yeah. Other production. Yeah. And then some of the names you're just like, man, I had kind of forgotten that guy was even in the NFL. Now we talked about the dangers of overly pattern matching to things. But again, I think that those the names in both categories and the number of names in both categories illustrate the issue that we have here, which is that like if you could get Doug Baldwin or TJ Hushman's honor Adam Thielin at this price, you would really want to. But you're probably not, especially with the Jack Horse having so many guys. Most of those guys are knocked on looking at going against Brian Thomas and Travis Hunter, even if there's a possibility that Travis Hunter plays a different position. My big issue when I go to the projections is going to be that I don't know that Trevor Lawrence can throw to a boundary receiver. Like I really think it's an issue for him. It's been an issue for him like his whole career. Like he's just been able to throw to these slot guys and tight ends over the middle. Brian Thomas is breakout rookie season happened with Mac Jones and we saw him struggle through all of last year and they tried to make adjustments. They tried to make fixes and they just weren't there with Trevor Lawrence. And when they got Trevor Lawrence working, it was throwing to slot receivers and guys over the middle and Parker Washington and Chico. We mayors those types of players think Brent and Strange is still going to get plenty of targets. You mentioned I like I'm pretty excited about the fifth round. Tyden Tanner cozy all. Shout out my guy Jacob Santerson who got me on that. But I've been. I don't I don't know what to make of this stuff. I mean, I don't know what to make of the Travis Hunter part of it. I don't know what to make of whether Trevor Lawrence is going to suddenly be able to actually feature in a boundary wide receiver, which he's essentially never been able to do at the NFL level. Or whether that production is going to have to come on the interior. And so you're saying Chico. We mayors is not viable. I think Chico. We mayors is going to get a lot of targets. Like you said, and then what that does is it creates. The uncons, like even if he's not a ceiling player, I create the unconsentrated nature. That's a little bit frustrating for fantasy. This is a very fun offense. I'm inclined to believe that Parker Washington is actually the play. In case he's to Jay Hushman Zada or whatever. Um, and if it's not him to believe that it's going to be too unconsentrated, because I do have a hard time going back to Brian Thomas when I think he's not a great quarterback slash scheme fit. I do think there's a wide goal for the offseason. They're going to spend a lot of time trying to figure out how to make Brian Thomas work. They're going to spend more time trying to figure out how to get Trevor Lawrence to work. Like he, they need to, he needs to be there, dude. They need to get him going and they were working through that all of last season as well. Because there's a lot of people that have pointed out the Trevor Lawrence. This may be not a super bowl call a record about. You were saying this is the best team in the league going into the playoffs. Maybe one of the limitations is that Trevor Lawrence is not good enough to be that guy. They need to get him working. And that to a degree means building your offense around the things that he actually does well. And if that's not throwing vertical routes of Brian Thomas, then he's a glorified run the safety off windspinner. You know, I mean, that. Can you get enough volume? I do think he's going to have some plays and I think he's very efficient and there's going to be some moments and you can take him in basketball and those things. But Brian Thomas feels like a little bit of a falling knife. He feels like the guy that, you know, you're like, man, I'm getting him this cheap this year. After last year, we took him with the one to turn and we loved him. But I don't know that I even want to take that discount on him because it just feels like it's the same fit as last year that didn't work. I mean, whatever fitting like a glove is, it was the opposite. It was they kept trying things and it never worked. Maybe they'll, they'll find some fixes this off season. I'm inclined to think that if he and Trevor Lawrence work out together, it'll be one of those things. It's like a slow build over multiple years and I can get back in later because I don't think it's going to be the very next year. Suddenly, he's a star again, you know? Yeah, you mentioned the throwing to the boundary stuff and certainly that seems very much on point there. It's kind of flashing back to thinking of some of those Clemson days where even then you're thinking about great catches by guys like T Higgins as opposed to the quality of the past being there. That may be unfair. That kind of leads me into the question of Travis Hunter and their ability to use him underneath over the middle, manufacturer types of things, right when he got hurt, they were finally giving him some air yards. You were obviously infinitely more tuned into the broader football discussion and fantasy football discussion. When people are looking at Travis Hunter's price currently, does it mostly rely on this idea that they have all of these other receivers, they've got some other receiving depth, they can put the three guys out there, no problem, they don't need him. They do need defenders. It's difficult to do both. People are back to this idea that you probably can't really do both. And or how much of it is that because he did actually start at receiver last year and then didn't score that people think that that already also gives a sense of what he is as an NFL wide receiver. Sorry, I was looking at some of the Clemson stats. What? Who was the? Travis, why don't people not like it? Oh, no, yeah, sorry, I got I got spacey there, but I knew you were talking about Hunter and I was like, I wanted to I want to get your thoughts on it more because I'm intrigued that you're kind of into him. I haven't given Hunter a ton of thought. And I think he's an interesting one to be in two for sure. I just think it's a black box a little bit about like how many routes he's going to run and the coaches are saying like we think he's going to play more D.B. But they're pretty much outright saying whatever one was afraid of last year in the fantasy space, which is he's a full-time D.B. That plays situational wide receiver. And I guess I'm worried that that's going to mean not enough volume. But when he does play, you talked about like the ways they used him would fit more, I think with Lawrence's stuff than than Brian Thomas, he could have a really high targets per route and be out there for situational really exciting stuff. But to the Clemson point, I just want to go to this real quick. So T Higgins had had some good years with them. I had 12 touchdowns and 13 touchdowns. But part of the reason we didn't know T Higgins was as good as he was is he only caught 59 balls, both of his final two years with Trevor Lawrence the first year of those two. Amari Rogers caught 55 balls and Hunter and fro caught 49 balls. The next year, T Higgins caught 59 and Amari Rogers caught 30 and Justin Ross led the team with 66. He's more similar to Higgins. The last year after Higgins was gone, Amari Rogers caught 77 balls led the conference relative to how good these different players are. I feel like the same trends existed back in college. Like we found out that Hunter and fro and Amari Rogers probably weren't actually all that great. They ended up getting drafted and Hunter and fro had a little bit of early career production. But probably more so Trevor Lawrence was boosting the profile of these underneath and like slot guys a little bit relative to T Higgins who he was maybe holding back who was hitting like a thousand yards at Clemson. And then I mean, looks like he's a better player than than what some of his numbers at Clemson actually suggest. So anyway, I thought that was an interesting point. I think you would always want all of the information because the nuance is both fun to work through and does give you some different information. I do in terms of all of the research from the past years and I'm sure there are some listeners who are like, no, I've got another list of guys that this is also true for. But he is basically the only guy who jumps to mine. So you needed to know his yards per route run as opposed to his yards for team attempt because it's staggering how much he didn't play and how incredibly.
officially was on the field, what was Clemson doing? It's like, partly they just were beating everybody easily. And so then you put the backups in. But maybe that was the big thing. I'm shocked that like a Mari Rogers was doing was was was so good at Clemson. But anyway, the I think the the Travis Hunter point is another one that creates this complication in this offense for volume. Like when I go and project this, I'm going to project Travis Hunter to get volume. I'm going to project Jacobi Myers to get volume. And then what's going to be and I'm going to project Brent and Strange to get volume. And then it's not really a team where like I typically always project the number one. First, the alphas get their volume and then I go down from there. This is not really a team that's like that. Or maybe just because they don't have a true alpha, maybe if Brian Thomas is not that guy. And the ancillary guys feel like they're definitely going to get something like Jacobi Myers is definitely going to get something and obviously Strange is, but like Hunter is going to get something. He's going to play some on offense. It's just that we don't know how much. But like when he plays, he's going to take from the pie. And so then the question is I'm almost working back toward the two guys that are most draftable Brian Thomas and Parker Washington. And I'm like, is there going to be enough for them to consolidate as the main dudes? You would be more interested in Thomas in that regard because like when I was looking at the Clemson stuff, for example, there's a big difference. I was talking about the reception. There's a big difference in yardage, right? T.H.G. against his way more productive on a higher A dot per catch than a Murray Rogers and Hunter Renfrow. Brian Thomas catching 60 balls could go for over a thousand yards and double digit touchdowns. I mean, that's what his profile is. That's what he was in college. He was a 17 TD guy and not even, you know, that many targets, frankly, overall. Maybe that's that's the break even as well. And that's part of what justifies his price, especially in best ball is you have the vertical nature of it and the downfield efficiency nature of him. Because he's that player. I definitely think he can make plays. It's another tricky one that's going to take time to think through, I think. And I want to know about camp reports, what shaped these guys are in, what they're telling me about Parker Washington. If they're gas and not Parker Washington, all off season, probably draft some of them, Sean. Yeah, I don't think that his price is a deal breaker by any stretch. He was one of the players that I had in my sort of pre draft sets for the NFL ton of death in round six. He did not quite make it back to me. One of the reasons that someone like Hunter is interesting and I think you should be stashing extremely talented players at the price of free is again, just the overconfidence that we tend to have. One of the things that happens every year in the NFL is that you have a handful of teams where no one gets hurt and you have a handful of teams where everybody gets hurt. And then most teams fall in the middle, but for every single team, whatever happens, once it's happened, feels inevitable. And it feels like that same type of thing will happen the next year. Now in some cases, it is slightly more likely that the teams that get injured stay injured because they're rostering players who have some injury issues. But you go into something like an NFL season with all of the chaos that happens and there are going to be plenty of guys who get hurt who are not, you know, quote unquote, injury prone, simply because they take the type of hit that will simply injure you. And it would know whether it's rookies, late or potential stars, late. I think you want to have some exposure to that type of player. And even if you like zero RB, you want to be willing to not draft, but then add in for your agency, the types of players who should be added in for your agency, who really are not guys to be stashing on your roster on the off chance that if they're not good and they are not going to dominate even once they have value, you only want to add them once they have value. You don't want to think about it kind of in both ways. So where do you land on the jugs? Yeah, I think you can take Parker Washington. I think you can take Travis Hunter. I kind of think no one will win. The whole thing with Trevor Lawrence is that it actually requires the rushing value to win. So he probably doesn't win for you either, especially because he's more expensive than Jackson Dart and Dak Prescott and Brock Pertie and Patrick Mahomes, which means the individual guys need to hit and Liam Cohen has to hit. I think that could very easily happen, but you don't have all of these things of you. I mean, Brock Pertie scored an incredible amount per game last season despite the fact that almost everything went wrong for the 49ers passing offense. Patrick Mahomes probably won't score for you in the first half of the season. Patrick Mahomes is cheaper. Right? Well, next to Kyler Murray are cheaper. I wish I had an entrance point to the Jaguars that was clear-cut. And probably that point is Baytial Tutin. But Baytial Tutin is more expensive than James and Williams, more expensive than Carl Tate, than Jordan Tyson. And more expensive than Marvin Harrison for anybody who's keeping the light on for him. Carl Tate is a blistering speed guy who was lowering his shoulder and hitting people last year. He's got more receiving upside than people think. But you're talking about an offense where they probably want a committee and where they have a designated receiving back. And where Tate actually didn't post very good peripherals last year. Now he was hurt. And so you have to keep that in mind. But again, where do you get into this offense and think from this price most of the scenarios I'm getting out of discount? No, it's tough. It's tough. I think Tutin can be that answer. You were talking through the QBs. There's obviously a lot of later around QBs you're talking about some of the earlier around QBs that we talk and that didn't work and the James Cook thing. But I had wanted to push back on that, but we went a little bit of a different direction. But the one thing I did want to circle back to was to note that probably I'm going to be talking to you into trying to talk you into at least a little bit of Lamar Jackson and Jane Daniels, who are the early QBs we were trying to take. Josh Allen was a QB1 last year. He scored 24.3 FFPC points per game. The QB1 in any of the seven previous seasons was never below 26.6, which is 2.3 points per game more than Josh Allen scored last year. Now I say seven. The back end of that is like 2018, 2019, 2020. We know offenses were way different back then. But even 2022, 2023 when scoring was down, there was fewer touchdowns league wide. We're scoring meaningfully more, particularly because there are running more. I wrote about this and we talked about this in the early off season. There weren't any running any quarterbacks who had big rushing numbers last year at all. Josh Allen led all quarterbacks in rushing yardage. It was the lowest league leader among quarterback rushing since 2009 with David Gerard. If that's the landscape, I'm not saying it's going to be the same, but I want to take the running the quarterbacks that can run for 800 yards. I don't think we made a process error in targeting the ceiling of Lamar Jackson and Jane Daniels. I disagree with you there. I think they were the right quarterbacks. I think the right quarterbacks, if you want to make that type of play again this year, I think that going after expensive quarterbacks for me was wrong. I mean, if they had that- They're different from seeing those two things or no. Yeah, there's a difference. Then we agree that they're the right quarterbacks and then we disagree on whether going after them was wrong because I think overwhelmingly that if either of them had stayed- Basically just stayed healthy. Lamar Jackson or Jane Daniels. Now they weren't really scoring when they were healthy. It wasn't really a great year for either of them. But if either of them had anything close to what they did in 2024, in 2025, that I just basically think you would feel differently. They would have been massive. They would have been really good values at those prices still because they would have been multiple points per game better than the- every other quarterback in the league. Yeah. I think it's going to be interesting to see how teams deploy their hybrid QBs. We get a bit of a sense, Lashar. We talked about how low the scoring was that defenses have figured out some methods to keep the hybrid QBs in check and/or the teams themselves are wanting to avoid the situation that Baltimore and Washington got into, which is that-
you've got these hybrid QBs, they really are your team. You think that your team is good beyond the quarterback and then you quickly find out that it in fact is not, that it was just Lamar Jackson, that it was just Jane Daniels. And then you have this tricky question of, do we change things so we have them, but now they can't carry the team or do we potentially lose them? And there's a lot of discussion about what types of QB hits actually lead to injuries and the teams are going to be trying to manage that type of thing also. But certainly you have Jackson dark talking about how obviously he's not going to run in the same way. We have questions about guys, I mean one of the questions I would have as the guys, they don't even have to get to 30, but as they get a little bit older, you know, how will Jaylen Hertz be able to do? We know that his is based on goal line touchdowns, but you have Josh Allen potentially moving into an era where it's got to be more passing. You have Lamar Jackson moving into an era where it's got to be more passing. And really it does come back to Jane Daniels as the guy. But well Lamar is different. We now do I think have some questions about whether or not he can really stay healthy, which I didn't like and didn't think was necessarily the case, but certainly last year was catastrophic when it came to that. I agree through thesis on Josh Allen. I think his scoring is going to continue to fall. And last year he was a QB one, but it was a lower scoring year for him than some of his best years. The reason I say I think Lamar is different is, I mean, just a year prior, he ran for 915 yards. I mean, even he ran for 800, the year prior to that, even as he has ran for fewer yards per game. When he was like at his absolute peak, he was rushing for 80 yards per game, which is absurd. And then he was at 67, 64, 64. And then the last couple years, 2023, 2024, he's at 51 and 54. So he's come down a lot in rushing yards per game, but his scale is different as my point. Even as he was at 54 yards per game, but stayed healthy for 17 games in 2024, that was 900 plus QB rushing yards. Again, no one ran for 600 last year. So Lamar I think is different. Even as he ages and comes down, you're still talking about differentiating rushing value potentially. But the big part of this that I agree with you on is that it's a much thinner needle to thread. It's a tougher path to take. You really have to have the early QB hit. And the other point is that there are a lot of interesting QBs going a lot later. And when we got into the season last year, it was like, I felt the same way in season where it was like, man, it's just way more comfortable to build with the late round quarterbacks. You can make that work. And that's the point of late round quarterback. As long as there's not an early round quarterback that's just absolutely destroying worlds. And probably with defenses being ahead, it's harder for a quarterback to just destroy worlds. So take the gimme structurally that is a late round quarterback build that is a higher floor and an easier thing. Because if you take the early quarterback and he gets hurt, you're just kind of done. Like you gave up such an opportunity at a key skill position player that you needed. And that's your fixation with it. And when I talked to you and you're like, we shouldn't have taken the early running back, your quarterback is like, you're like, I want as much as I can get out of the early stuff. We were talking before the show about some of the tight end stuff. And when you start talking through it, you're like, you want to take a few more running backs early this year, but you still got to get your receiver depth. And then, I mean, you can't even justify taking a tight end sometimes. I mean, in certain formats, and we were talking about underdog in the way that best ball may manifest for elite tight ends because late tight ends, you can, you know, you can get multiple guys and play the spike weeks and try to manufacture tight end production that way. It's more viable there. We still love elite tight ends for FFPC redraft. Certainly, I'm sure you'll agree, but you were talking to me also that the prices there are tricky. But whenever I talk to you about it, what I hear from you is the fixation on wanting as many of those elite skill position non-QBs as you can jam into rosters. That's what you talk about. Wait until it's flat to take the QB. And if it's not flat, I want to keep jamming in as much fire powers I can get as much redundancy because we know that some of these are going to miss some of them are going to get hurt. We're going to be wrong on some of this stuff as much. And then, because you can make a late round QB structure work, it's a high floor structure. My point is just I don't think building a few, we probably built too many teams that way. And actually, I would agree with you that we did, but I don't think doing it in some of the outcome or some of the scenarios was a bet that was wrong because I do think if you're right with that early QB, especially with the way the sprint fits on FFBC, which is something we talked about. And you get three straight weeks of Lamar Jackson scoring. I mean, a lot of the sprints have been won by the Josh Allen teams and the Lamar Jackson teams and the quarterbacks that can actually that are a little bit more expensive if you go look at the history. Well, and we've had some seasons as well where we actually had consistently too good of a player as the first guy on the bench. You don't know that you're going to have that. You don't know what the injury rate for the season is going to be, but certainly when you have that and you're staring at a pass oriented QB or in our case for the four three of them in Anthony Richardson where you're like, when you can play Anthony, you're going to be Richardson. The two of CJ's throughout probably score three. Who are the four QBs to a CJ stride Anthony Richardson and like Aaron Rogers or something. Do we have Rogers at that? No, that's definitely not Aaron Rogers. I could have had Aaron Rogers. I can't remember. That was a fun year. That was a Trevor Lawrence. I don't think so. But you're then thinking to yourself, like if I'm so good at drafting and I've got all of this, this excess and then there were these elite QBs who are going to crush my QB. Why do I not have that? There are going to be cases where that's true and there are going to be situations where you'd have it and you might want to sprinkle it in and it might be that the next time you win the million dollars, that that's who you have. I do think that in general, it's going to decrease the number of leagues you win. It's going to decrease the number of times you've finished in the top 100. For sure. Yeah. It's a hard ceiling to hit on. I'm talking about it as a gamble that can pay off. The other thing is, let's talk about the sprint dynamic and it can be difficult to match. Or even just the fact that in the years where guys like Josh Allen have had the great sprints that Josh Allen teams have been at the very top. Our plan for that was to have a lot of QBs and try to Frankenstein it and have three different spike weeks at QB. What you can probably do with QBs, just light rounders and guys you picked up off waivers. That's a very format specific point. Broadly speaking, across formats, the light round thing is probably more viable. Overall in an era where the scoring is back down and you're not likely to get a five thousand and fifty Patrick Mahomes year or what Lamar Jackson did the very next year in 2019. These massive 400 point quarterback seasons are probably off the table. That isn't intriguing to me. That was part of my point. If you get Lamar Jackson circa 2024, when everyone else is scoring like they did in 2025, then you would be really putting a gap between yourself and everyone else at quarterback. It's a tricky needle to thread for sure. I did think a little bit of actually comes back to this discussion that you had kind of at the beginning and that you have had a sort of a through line for the shows the last two or three years of the defensive evolution because I do think that some of the things that the defenses are potentially able to do a little bit more to control the mobile Cubes as runners also then allows them to knock down their efficiency as passers. When you lose efficiency off both sides of that, then the hybrid value of it that obviously moved into the lexicon as the Konami code, that actually is mitigated if not neutralized. It's not just the rushing part. What does the rushing part then mean for the passing efficiency? One of the reasons that Lamar Jackson is so fun is that when he hits, he can do it. He can hit just so massively. You think about, if there's going to be a guy who scores 30 points for game, it's almost certainly going to be Lamar Jackson or J&D. No one else can really get in that area. The reason he can do it is because of all of those rushing yards but also with the vertical passing. We know that one of the big problems he was having last year, and it's a little bit difficult to untangle from the injuries, but the reason I really got fired is because the passing game collapsed. So there are just so many interesting notes to all of this. That's so much fun. The Lamar thing, I'm remembering now why I was so into it is exactly what you're saying. He had, in 2024, his efficiency was insane because he scrambled a little bit less but was still very efficient as a runner and scrambled for a ton of rushing yardage. At the same time, his sac rate was at a career low and his passing efficiency was meaningfully better, presumably because he wasn't needing to hold the ball as long as he was getting the ball out but he had a league high yards per temp.
touchdown percentage, QB rating, all of those things. And close to his career high in some of those metrics as well, through for over 4,000 yards for the first time while also running for 900 yards as I mentioned. And to your point, all of that got worse. His saccharade actually shot up to a career high and his scrambling got a little bit worse and the passing efficiency worse because it's all tied. You're not you're holding the ball longer. You're not finding the the throws that you want. You're holding the ball longer. That's leading to the sacs. That's impacting your per attempt passing efficiency. In addition to your rushing and all these other things, the whole offense isn't working quite as well. That was the real big intrigue for me going into 2025 was just how dynamic he had been improving like evolving improving as a per attempt passer while taking fewer sacs because the sac stuff often makes you a better per attempt passer. Just rather than throw the ball away, you just take that's like the Russell Wilson thing. He would take a lot of sacs and then his per attempt numbers would be great. Other quarterbacks are throwing those balls away. Their per attempt numbers don't look as good. Lamar was dropping the sac rate and increasing the per attempt passing was just meant like otherworldly per dropback efficiency really is the way to think about it. All of that went backwards last year. Jane Daniels looked like he could be that kind of a dude in his rookie year two, especially when you controlled for the game that he left really early. There's like a week a teen game in that rookie year. He didn't play much. If you gave him a little credit for how good he was in the postseason because he had some big games and you just kind of looked at the games where he actually played in full, you saw a scoring level that was way up there too because of the combination of running and passing efficiency. It'll be interesting to see if you those guys can stay healthy and hit those ceilings. But to me, it's those two again, if you're going to go anywhere near the top of the quarterback price range. But I tend to agree with you that we just got to wait, find our cheap, cheap quarterback options. And there's a lot of names that you were saying when you were saying like Trevor, Trevor Lawrence is overpriced. He's more expensive than all these guys. You named a bunch of dudes and all of them are pretty interesting. I mean, there's not a lot of them that are clearly the dude to target. We talked a little bit about the Vikings earlier and we're talking a little bit about Kyler, but you mentioned about Nick's back there. He's still going to scramble. He's going to play. He's going to be the dude. Their offense is going to be better with Jalen Waddle, who's a guy who I feel like it's a perfect fit for a team that likes to rotate routes because Jalen Waddle always wants to breathe there every now and then and you know, probably can't run all the routes. But if you're going to get him out there in an offense that can make him hyper efficient per route, like the Marvin Mims type stuff. If you can translate that to a few more route, like Jalen Waddle is going to be a different version of that. But I feel like Waddle is a really nice pick with Denver now because it's, they're not going to ask too much of him and then he can be really, really good on the stuff that you are asking of him. Anyway, I think he elevates Bo Nex's profile, Herbert, you know, we talked about him favorably. We're way deep into this pod, Sean. We probably don't need to do all the quarterbacks. I don't have the list in front of me, but there's a lot of them to like late rounds. I mean, not all those guys are late, late rounds, but there's a lot of names to like. You mentioned Jalen Waddle, his wide receiver 24 could easily see a scenario where he leads the NFL in yards per route and finishes wide receiver 24. That's a great way to end it. That's, that's, I mean, it's hard. I was going to say I was, I, for a second, I thought you're going to go with a real like ceiling prediction there. And I was like, yeah, why are you 24 does feel pretty high for him? Because I'm talking about the routes, not being all that high. And it's tough to be a top 12 receiver without, you know, big routes. Like, feels like a small hit scenario there. But yeah, I love to the way you framed it leads the league in yards per out run and finishes at ADP. So I got for what has been a very fun episode of stealing bananas. I have those two big pieces coming out that Ben mentioned. He is beginning to work on his projections series. He'll have some pods on those. He'll have some amazing content on stealing signals for those that's Ben Gretch dot sub stack dot com. I'd love to have you guys over there on Routaviz. There have been some questions about my involvement in the rankings. We've introduced some new rankings tools that are awesome that I am involved in. Make sure you check that out if that was a question that you had. We love you guys. We'll talk to you soon.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
The hosts discuss the difficulty of ranking certain fantasy football players for the 2026 season, focusing on Justin Jefferson as a prime example.
Jefferson’s ADP has fallen outside the first round due to concerns about quarterback Kyler Murray’s performance, despite Jefferson being arguably the best wide receiver in football.
Kyler Murray’s 2025 stats, while worse than his career averages, were still viable; his limitations include a shorter time-to-throw and inability to utilize mobility for deep passes.
The Vikings’ offense has strong supporting pieces like Jordan Addison and Jalen Nailor, which could help Jefferson but also potentially limit his target volume.
Jefferson’s yards per target dropped significantly in 2025 due to poor quarterback play from J.J. McCarthy, but this is expected to rebound with Kyler Murray.
The hosts debate whether Jefferson is a value at his current ADP, given his talent and potential for a top-five receiving yardage season, despite environment concerns.
Other tough-to-rank players mentioned include CeeDee Lamb, Trey McBride, Ashton Jeanty, and James Cook, with discussions on their ADP and upside.
Summary:
The hosts of "Stealing Bananas" tackle the challenge of ranking fantasy football players for 2026, highlighting Justin Jefferson as a particularly difficult case. Jefferson, widely considered the best receiver in football, has seen his ADP fall outside the first round due to concerns about quarterback Kyler Murray’s inconsistent performance and the Vikings’ offensive dynamics. Despite Murray’s 2025 struggles, his stats remained in line with his career, and his ability to support top receivers like DeAndre Hopkins suggests Jefferson can still thrive.
However, Murray’s quick release and lack of deep-ball utilization may limit Jefferson’s ceiling. The Vikings’ supporting cast, including Jordan Addison and Jalen Nailor, could both help and hinder Jefferson’s volume. J.
McCarthy, but this is expected to improve with Murray. The hosts debate whether Jefferson is a value at his ADP, noting his talent could still lead to a top-five yardage season. Other difficult players include CeeDee Lamb, whose ADP is affected by Dak Prescott’s strong play, and running backs like Trey McBride and Ashton Jeanty, who present unique upside.
The discussion underscores the uncertainty in balancing talent with environment, but the hosts lean toward Jefferson as a strong pick outside the first round.
FAQs
The toughest players include Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and others like Kyler Murray, due to factors like quarterback play and team dynamics.
Jefferson is elite but faces uncertainty with Kyler Murray as his quarterback, who has limitations, and concerns about volume sharing with other receivers like Jordan Addison and Jalen Nailor.
Murray's inconsistent play, including injury issues and lower efficiency in 2025, creates risk for Jefferson, though his talent and past production suggest he can still be a top receiver.
McCarthy's poor accuracy and lack of touch on throws last year limited Jefferson's yards per target, but improvement is expected, which could boost Jefferson's per-route efficiency.
Lamb has a better quarterback in Dak Prescott and a high ceiling, making him a more appealing pick than Jefferson, who faces quarterback uncertainty.
Jefferson's ADP outside the first round presents a potential value, as his talent is elite, but concerns about his environment and quarterback play keep his ranking uncertain.
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