Speaker 1
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Now here's Frank Scott and Chris.
Hello.
Welcome into.
Speaker 2
Fantasy Baseball today on Thursday June 4th I am frank sampled joined by Chris Towers.
Look at us big old basketball fans.
Chris today, today on the show, what to do with these 7 struggling hitters.
Pitchers I believe should either be moving up or down the rankings.
The Reds finally were called Noelvi Marte and much more.
Let's jump in.
Speaker 1
Can you believe it?
Wow.
Speaker 2
All right, players of the night, man, We're just starting things off on the wrong foot, Chris, We're, we're both going the negative route.
Who's yours?
Speaker 3
Yeah, it it's weird because like, your favorite basketball team won.
Like your favorite basketball team had a lead in the NBA Finals.
This was a crazy stat for the first time since like game five of the 1995 Finals.
Speaker 2
I believe they never LED in the 99 finals at all.
I.
Speaker 3
That's that was the stat I saw.
Speaker 2
Oh my gosh.
Speaker 3
Or maybe it was the first time in the fourth quarter.
But either way, your team won an NBA Finals game and you're going double negative to start the show.
Well, I guess I'm starting the show with the -1 which is, you know what, New York's riding high right now.
You got your your Knicks Finals gear.
I got my my cool new Liberty shirt.
Shouts to FBT listener Shane, who came up and said hi at the Liberty game tonight.
Go libs.
So we got to knock New Yorkers down a peg.
So we'll talk about Gerrit Cole, who had a pretty rough start on Wednesday against Cleveland.
And four, four runs and five and a third inning.
Six hits, three home runs allowed, only two strikeouts, only three whiffs in this start.
That is strange.
And that is now two starts for Gerrit Cole where he has two strikeouts and then one start where he has 10.
I don't know what to make of that.
He only had three whiffs in this one.
I think all three were on the fastball.
The the secondary's just didn't do anything for him.
I am really not sure what to make of this because after the last start where Gerrit Cole struck out ten, I was kind of just ready to say, OK, great.
Gerrit Cole, That's that's the guy.
And now I don't know.
And the the stuff metrics are kind of down across the board with the exception of the four seamer.
I don't really have a good feel for why that is right now, but it's I don't know.
I don't quite know what to make of Gerrit Cole.
I will say it's, it's a slightly different version of Gerrit Cole than the one we saw in 2024.
He has dish just cutter which he was using that year.
He is throwing a sinker more often.
He's also lowered his arm slot quite a bit in 2024 in a 43° arm angle.
In 20252026 so far it's down to 37°.
This is something I've noticed.
Lance Brozdowski talks a lot about guys coming back from Tommy John surgery.
There have been a lot of guys who have had lower arm slots coming back.
I don't know if that's a just a trend or if that's something that the pitchers are doing intentionally or if it's just a result of the surgery.
But Gerrit Cole is a slightly different pitcher and the the secondary's especially seem to have been impacted.
I don't, I really don't know what to make of it.
But after I was, you know, ready to say Gerrit Cole's back after the second start, now I'm feeling the need to pump the brakes a little bit, just a little bit.
I'm not panicking about Gerrit Cole or or saying he's going to be a a bad pitcher moving forward.
I certainly don't believe that.
But you know if you were thinking great I've got an ace moving forward after the last start I kind of was.
I do think you have to pump the brakes a little bit.
That being said, the 2 low strikeout games were against teams that are not striking out very much.
Two of the bottom 5 strikeout rate teams in baseball.
Maybe it's just that, Maybe that's the explanation, but I wish Gerrit Cole had followed up the great start with another good one, or at least had missed some bats, you know?
Speaker 2
Yeah, no, I totally get that.
I just, I think we need more.
I just think we need more data to try and figure out exactly who this post surgery version of Gerrit Cole is because again, it was like coming off his first start and then the second one, it was like kind of opposites where we got all those whiffs and all those strikeouts.
And obviously we were excited about that.
And then comes back down to earth here.
Worth mentioning as well that it was, you know, warm here in New York and he gave up three home runs in this start.
And also like Jose Ramirez has just owned him in his career and that was one of the home runs that he gave up as well.
So I'm just coming up with a bunch of excuses.
But I think the real answer is that we just need more.
We need more data.
We need more time to learn exactly who this version of Gerrit Cole is.
I think maybe we jumped the gun a little bit, you know, putting him inside our top 24 starting pitchers.
I think among the other names we've talked about recently, the the breakout types, Braxton Ashcraft and Kyle Harrison.
I think guys like that should probably move ahead of Garrickole.
And so maybe he drops down more into like SP3 range, at least in terms of like expectation moving forward.
So that's where I'm at right now.
But I honestly, I just think we need to see more to, to figure out who this Gerrit Cole is.
Let's talk about George Kirby, man, another kind of confusing pitcher right now.
Maybe he just isn't that great right now.
Maybe he just isn't that great this season.
Against the Mets here, he allowed five runs, four those earned over 4 innings.
He gave up ten base runners in the start.
And over his last four outings, it's a 729 ERA.
It's a 162 WHIP.
For whatever reason, the strikeouts are down this year.
If you look at the whiff rates on his four seen curve and sweeper, they're all down.
I mean especially the curve is like down considerably from 39% last year to 16% this year.
But he is getting more ground balls.
So I don't know if that's a conscious decision of him trying to pitch more contact and just get more ground balls or it's something that's out of his control.
Last year he had the shoulder injury and you know, perhaps he's just never rebounded exactly back to the pitcher that he was before.
Whatever the reason, Chris, I I think George Kirby is someone who probably needs to be moving down the rankings right now.
Again, behind some of those other breakout hopefuls, the Chase Burns the Braxton Ashcraft's, the Kyle Harrison's, who are just performing much better right now.
Speaker 3
Yeah, I, I think that's totally fair.
It's there on the surface level, it's easy to say what's gone wrong with George Kirby, right?
It it's, he no longer, he still has great control, but he no longer has the lowest walk rate among all starters, right?
The first three years of his career, he's right around 3%.
Last year was 5 1/2%.
This year 5.7%.
OK, that's still good, but it's double what it was in 2024 and then you have the lowest strikeout rate of his career.
And so that combination makes perfect sense.
Why George Kirby would be worse than we've seen why the strikeout rate in particular is so much worse is a a tougher question to answer at my my guess is that last season we saw a bit of a change in the shape of his four seamer that made a little more effective, right?
He he got more whiffs, really good results on balls in play.
And the change was he went from getting about 16 inches of induced vertical break to about 13.
And he was getting more horizontal movement along with it.
So let's ride a little more run.
I guess it's the way you put it.
And now he's got the same induced vertical break as last season, actually the lowest of his career, 13.1 inches on average.
But the horizontal movement is down to 8.8 inches, which is back down to where it was in like 2023 when he was getting more of that ride.
And so it just seems like the four seam shape maybe isn't as effective as it used to be.
It's down to 21% with rate.
The knuckle curve, that's a big one, down to 16%.
I'm not sure what the explanation is here.
I'm just kind of grasping for something that's changed to say it.
But I I do think at the very least, George Kirby is clearly a a lesser pitcher than he has been in the past.
The question is how likely is he to turn it around?
Well, we're going on kind of two pretty mediocre seasons now.
Last year, small ish sample size, only 126 innings.
I don't know, but the last 200 innings we've seen from George Kirby, it's an ERA over 4.
Speaker 2
Yeah.
So it feels like more of an SP3 type.
Like is he still just a kind of must start pitcher in your eyes?
Speaker 3
I would have a hard time sitting him, yeah.
Speaker 2
I think so too.
Speaker 3
But you know, like when Dylan Cease comes back, I'm going to rank Dylan Cease ahead of him.
Speaker 2
I just don't know.
Like I don't know that I would buy low with confidence, you know?
Speaker 3
Yeah, I don't.
I don't think this is a situation where I can definitely pound the table and say, yes, George Kirby is going to be an ace moving forward.
I can't say that.
Speaker 2
Right.
And looking back at last year, this was always something that was in the back of my mind and perhaps factored into why his whiff rates were much higher last season.
Remember, he had three starts against the Angels last year where he totaled 37 strikeouts in three outings, two of those being 14 strikeout performances.
Like maybe his numbers were just kind of propped up because he faced the Angels three times and they had the highest strikeout rate by far last season.
And they do strikeout a lot again this year.
So maybe he just needs a few starts against the Angels to to get things right.
But yeah, that was just something lingering in the back of my mind.
Maybe just took advantage of a really strikeout pro team last year.
But for whatever reason, I think Cole, more so Kirby dropping down the rankings a little bit after these most recent starts.
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Let's take that break.
We'll be back right after this.
Welcome back in fantasy baseball today.
Let's hit the news and notes.
No surprise, but Aaron Judge out of the lineup again on Wednesday.
He did visit with a specialist to examine that bone bruise in his rib cage.
And Aaron Boone added that Judge will undergo additional imaging.
Quote from Aaron Boone.
We just want clarity on exactly what we're dealing with.
So just adds an extra layer of doubt.
I I can't see a scenario where this does not wind up in an IL sync Chris.
Speaker 3
I certainly seems like that.
I, I know they're going to try to avoid that if they can with Judge I.
I feel like when he had the elbow issue in 2024, was it 2024 when he had the elbow?
Speaker 2
Issue last year.
Speaker 3
Last year.
I know they tried to have him avoid the ILI.
Did he end up going on the ILS?
Speaker 2
Yeah, but he came back in the minimum time, yeah.
Speaker 3
Came back in the minimum, but there was like a a stretch where they were really trying not to have him go on and then they finally did.
Obviously when you have Aaron Judge and it's and you can keep him active, you're going to try to, but I, I would rather him in early June, just go on the IL and then hopefully it's a, a minimum stay and it doesn't, you know, that's enough to get it right.
But it sounds concerning.
Yeah.
It's, it's certainly not nothing.
And we've seen it impact his play.
So I, I think it's pretty concerning, yeah.
Speaker 2
And it's just kind of a weird injury.
We don't know exactly what's going on, so I don't know.
Obviously teams are not always transparent and forthright about what the actual injury is, and so we'll see if they actually tell us what's going on.
But yeah, my guess is Aaron Judge winds up on the IL.
Katel Marte was out of the lineup due to lower back and hamstring tightness.
He has dealt with a lot of different, you know, hamstring, groin type things over the years.
Please be OK because that guy is on an absolute heater right now.
Cal Raleigh will be in a rehab assignment at High A on Sunday and the big dumper has been out since mid-May with a right oblique strain.
Max Freed has been cleared to ramp up a throwing progression.
He's working his way back from a bone bruise in his left elbow.
Zach Netto has missed three straight with a neck injury he suffered on a collision at home plate over the weekend, so follow that one closely.
See if maybe he has to wind up on the IL as well.
Finally, the Reds option TJ Friedel to AAA and they were called Noelvi Marte who was destroying the Miners. 40 games at AAA, hit 369, eight homers, 9 steals, 984 OPS.
There's just one slight problem.
He was not in the lineup on Wednesday, so and that was against the right-handed pitcher.
What do you think happens here, Chris?
Do you think Noelvi Marte is an everyday player or close to it?
Speaker 3
Man there, there does seem to be some disconnect here with maybe it's not fair to say there's disconnect, but Terry Francona doesn't seem to love Noelvi Marte and he's the guy making line UPS up.
So I, I do think there's reason to be concerned, but I, I also just think you got to give him a chance.
You know, like there's clearly nothing left for him at AAA.
You've got to give him a chance.
You can't just do what they were doing early in the season and use him as a, a part time player.
You got to just give this guy who, who is super talented a chance to see if he can turn that AAA production into Major League production.
Because there there is not, not Blake Dunn's been a nice story for them.
I just, there is no world in which Blake Dunn and Will Benson should be keeping Noelvi Marte from getting the opportunity.
Those guys might be better than him.
You know, like, it certainly wouldn't shock me if Noelvi Marte was just overwhelmed like he was early in the season.
But you got to give him a chance.
And I think they're going to.
And it look, it might be the last chance for Noelvi Marte.
You know, we're four years into his Major League career.
At some point, he's got to start finding some consistent production.
He's had like one good month at a time, basically.
But I think for a team that wants to make the playoffs, team that just lost LA De La Cruz, a team that desperately needs some impact, I think you have to give Noelvi Marte a a real chance here.
Speaker 2
So would you, I mean what size leads would you be looking to add Noelvi Marte right now he's 40% rostered, has third base and outfield eligibility.
Speaker 3
I would say any categories league, I'm not sure all points leagues it it makes sense to add Noelvi Marte, but any categories league, you know, he was on like a pretty close to a 3025 pace down at AAA.
Obviously there's there's big all around upside here if he can make enough contact.
So I'm and he.
Speaker 2
Was really good last year up until September where it just cratered.
So he we know there's talent there, there's some power, there's some speed, great ballpark to hit in.
So we'll see how much he plays right away.
Maybe it's not every single day, but if he starts to hit, I I think he can earn that and I do think there's upside.
So I agree with you.
I think any categories league, definitely any roto league that has a corner and five outfielder spots there with Noel Marte.
Michael Garcia has missed four straight with that right hamstring strain and yet the Royals have not put him on the IL.
So we'll see you there.
Josh Naylor was back in the lineup after missing Tuesday with back spasms.
Corbin Burns apparently suffered a set back and will be shut down from his throwing progression.
He's dealing with a Terrace major strain in his shoulder.
Spencer Schwalenbach is close to facing hitters in a live BPI.
Did want to just quickly search up what his roster rate is at because now is probably the time to be re adding guys like Hunter Green and and Spencer Schwalenbach.
He's 43% rostered, so I think we could see him post All Star break, you know, shortly after that.
Speaker 3
Probably going to be a little longer than that I would guess just because August 1st if he he hasn't, well, so phase lot hitters and a live BP probably do that a couple times and you're probably looking at.
Speaker 2
Probably needs a.
Speaker 3
Month, yeah, yeah, it could be around, I guess around the All Star break, maybe a little later.
Makes sense for Spencer Schwalenbach.
That's that seems to make sense, yeah.
Speaker 2
Jorge Solaire left early with left hip hip irritation.
Mick Abel will throw live BP Thursday and could soon start a rehab assignment.
He's 47% roster and the last time we saw him he had two great starts in April right before he went on the IL.
Chris, would you rather stash Schwellenbach or Mick Abel?
Speaker 3
I think I'd have to go with.
I think he'll be.
Speaker 2
Back sooner.
Speaker 3
He'll definitely be back sooner.
And and I think just I don't really know what to expect from Schwalenbach.
He like he, he was so good last season, but it seems like his arm could not hold up to it.
And now we've we've had another elbow issue coming off of it.
So I just don't really know what to expect from Schwalenbach.
I assume we're going to see him throwing with less velocity.
That was something he talked about thinking that that led to the injury last year.
He'll we've seen him still be effective with less velocity but I don't I'm not 100% sure he's going to be a difference maker given everything he's gone through here.
Speaker 2
Philly's prospect Aiden Miller will undergo back surgery on Friday and is expected to miss 6 to 8 weeks.
Giancarlo Stanton faced live pitching on Wednesday.
He also started running this past weekend.
He's 68% rostered which is already pretty high.
I I'm always amazed by how high the roster rate is for Stanton.
I think it's mostly just like a name thing.
It's obviously he's been around for so long and a lot of people know who he is.
Are you looking to re add Stanton in any of the leagues he's available in?
Speaker 3
Probably, yeah.
Not really.
I think the the roster right there is probably fine.
Speaker 2
Yeah, I think category leagues, rotto leagues, if that's makes sense for Stanton.
Alejandro Kirk could be activated from the IL early next week.
He's been out since April 3rd with a fractured thumb.
He is 49% rostered.
Definitely.
Somebody just make sure he's not available in your two catcher leagues.
If he is, make sure to change that.
What about one catcher leagues, Chris?
Would you look to re add Alejandro Kirk in any of those?
Speaker 3
I don't think he has the juice for A1 catcher league.
I think I'd rather have Francisco Alvarez in a one catcher league if.
Speaker 2
Who's on a rehab assignment, right?
Speaker 3
Now who's already started his rehab assignment should be back sooner.
So yeah.
And is lower rostered than Alejandro Kirk, so might actually be available in in more 1 and 2.
Speaker 2
Catcher Leagues Luis Severino has been diagnosed with a strain of his right shoulder capsule and will be re evaluated in four to six weeks.
Rhett Lauder will return Sunday against the Cardinals.
He's been out since early May with right shoulder discomfort. 28% rostered Any interest in Rhett Lauder.
Speaker 3
We really haven't seen much from him at the Major League level, so no, I, I, he's got to prove it.
Speaker 2
Yeah, I think it's mostly a streamer type.
Jonah Tong was optioned back to AAA after a rough outing on Tuesday night.
The Padres DFA Ed Nick Cassianos and they selected Samad Taylor from AAA.
I think a name to watching the deepest of leagues, NL only he was performing pretty well in the minors.
Again, the name there is Samad Taylor.
The Blue Jays acquired Simeon Woods Richardson from the Twins for cash.
And lastly, Royce Lewis is crushing the minors since getting sent down.
He homered again on Wednesday night.
The updated numbers, 358 batting average, 10 homers, 22 RBI, an OPS that is nearing 1400.
He's done all that in US13 games.
It's a pretty similar situation to Noelvi Marte, Chris.
It's like we know the guy can destroy the miners.
We're going to see him back at some point.
Are you interested in stashing Royce Lewis?
Speaker 3
So the thing that's complicating it here is Brooksley has moved to third base, it seems, for good.
And the report I saw was that was in preparation for Kaylin Culpepper.
They're one of their top prospects who's playing shortstop at AAA.
Where does that leave room for Royce Lewis?
If, and I assume when I.
I can't imagine he's going to stay down long with 10 homers in 13 games.
I wrote about him for Wednesday's newsletter.
It is just hard to see where Royce Lewis is going to play unless they're like willing to play him at DHI.
Guess they.
Speaker 2
Have Josh Bell there, but I guess they just move Bell to first base and.
Speaker 3
Yeah, you don't really need Cody Clemens in the line up.
Speaker 2
I don't see if they they have played Royce Lewis one game at second base down in the minors.
Speaker 3
Maybe if they want to send Luke Keishel back.
He's been disappointing, but hasn't been.
Speaker 2
Yeah, he has been hitting a little bit better, but it's no power and yeah, it's very.
Speaker 3
Empty, but he's still getting on base a decent amount.
So I'm not sure, yeah, that that's the one thing with Royce Lewis.
I I do think he's worth adding in some leagues, but it's, it's hard to see where he's gonna play right now.
Speaker 2
All right, what to do with these 7 struggling hitters?
Obviously 7 names.
Chris, I wanna keep it moving, so let's not get too bogged down on any one of these guys but Manny Machado, 172 batting average.
He's got 10 homers, a six O 7 OPS.
Honestly I found all these names because I sorted over the last 30 days and during that span he's hitting one O 9 with a 472 OPS.
So what is wrong with Manny Machado?
What do you do with him?
Do you if you have him do you start sit drop?
Or if you don't have him, would you be looking to buy low?
Speaker 3
Yeah, it is possible.
We're seeing the beginning of the end here for Manny Machado, who is 33.
It's not terribly old, but it's old enough that you know the the decline phase could have started and we're basically just seeing across the board declines in everything, which is what across the board means.
His expected Wobe on contact down to 358.
That is the worst in the stack cast era dating back to 2015.
His strikeout rate is 22.8%.
That is the worst of I believe his entire career.
His Sprint speed, which has never been great, at least since he was young, down to 3rd percentile.
Speaker 2
It could just be that he's losing athleticism.
Speaker 3
Yeah, let's see what the bats for the bat speeds, OK?
For the most part, the bat speed looks like it should.
So that's one physical characteristic that doesn't seem to have declined.
But everything else looks so bad that, yeah, it might be starting to be over for Manny Machado, given his track record and how consistently good he's been over the past.
I mean, 15 years, really, or 12 years, whatever it is.
I'm not quite ready to say that yet.
But I'm open to the possibility that Machado's just starting to lose it.
Yeah.
Speaker 2
If you have him, do you continue to start him or in a shallower league, can you see sitting him or even drop I I, I mean, I can't Machado's a player that you know, you use a top 50 pick on him.
And maybe this is just like me being a stubborn idiot, but no, I would just go down with the ship.
If I if I use the top 50 pick on him I would just go down with the ship.
Speaker 3
Yeah, I I agree.
Now if you want to use Nolanaronado ahead of him right now that that's probably fine.
Speaker 2
But you're not dropping him anywhere.
Speaker 3
No, Colt Emerson is like 30% available.
Josh Young is probably 20% available.
I would guess you suck Paradis about 30% I think if you wanted to use any of those guys ahead of Manny Machado.
I know, I know, Paradis hasn't been very good overall, but he's been better than Machado and he's starting to heat up a little bit lately.
So if you want to use those guys ahead of him, sure.
But it's hard for me to envision a scenario where I'm dropping Manny Machado.
Speaker 2
Just give me I guess a one word or two word answer here by low or heck no Machado.
Speaker 3
Probably buy low.
Speaker 2
Next up we have his teammate Jackson Merrill, who's hitting two O 6 with five homers, 10 steals, a six O 4 OPS.
He has less fantasy points per game than Jorge Solaire, Gavin Sheets and Jake McCarthy.
So same questions, Chris.
What is wrong with Jackson Merrill if you have them?
Do you sit him?
Do you drop him?
And would you try to buy low?
Speaker 3
I would like to say I want to buy low, but I I there's really nothing much to point to.
He's not like the expected Woebus 315, the actual Woebus 271.
OK, he's probably better than this, but if he was hitting 243 with a 417 slug instead, I don't think we would feel materially different about Jackson Merrill.
We certain would certainly wouldn't feel like he's a a difference making type player.
I have a really hard time with, like, how good Jackson Merrill was as a 20 year old who made the leap from AA.
Like the degree of difficulty of what he did was ridiculous.
And I have a hard time believing, I guess he was 21.
Yeah, I I have a hard time believing that that was just totally fake and he'll never be good again.
But he hasn't been very good since his rookie season.
Now, he was better last year.
I'm I'm inclined to stay by low again.
But that's also acknowledging that I am a lot more willing to stick to my priors than most people, and sometimes that leaves me astray.
And it might be with Jackson Merrill.
Speaker 2
In a shallower 3 outfielder league, I wouldn't drop him, but I would be all right sitting him.
I think in any five outfit of their league or deeper, I I would just continue to roll with him out there.
But again, there's there's not too much in the underlying data here that points to Jackson Merrill getting better outside of just blind faith in what he did as a rookie.
Let's talk about Vinny Pascuantino.
Of course, I made the segment earlier in the day.
Then he goes out two for four with his 6th home run, but he's still hitting just two 14648 OPS.
He has been brutal against left-handed pitching so far this season.
And look, he's never been great against them, but he's never been this bad either.
So I think there's a possibility he's still kind of like playing through this back injury.
But what do you see under the hood here, Chris?
Same questions.
Vinnie P, do you?
Would you consider dropping him anywhere and would you buy low?
Speaker 3
This is one I'm I'm less inclined to buy low just because it does seem like there's something physically wrong with with Vinny Pasquantino.
Maybe it's the the back injury.
Although the problem was by the time we learned about the back injury he had already been off to a terrible start and a lot of the warning signs were already there.
The most glaring one would be the bat speed, which is down to 69.9 mph.
He was at 72.5 mph in 2025.
That is a pretty massive drop for someone who is, what, 2628?
That tells me that there's something physically wrong with Vinny Pasquantino, that he isn't passed yet and you know he's still making a decent amount of contact.
But strikeout rate is the highest of its career.
Average hex velocity is 88.3 mph.
That's the worst of his career by a full mile per hour.
I I think Vinny Pasquantino just isn't right.
The problem is, is he going to get right?
I don't know.
I the the underlying stuff against lefties is as bad as the overall numbers.
His average exit velocity against lefties is 83 mph.
Last year it was 90 mph.
That is a massive drop.
Yeah, it's this is the first one that I'm I'm not inclined to buy low on.
Speaker 2
I I think in like a head to head points league as greatest first base is I could see dropping him in that format.
I, I think anything deeper I would probably hold, but I'm with you.
I I don't think that I would confidently buy low in in in Vinnie P right now.
Next up we have Taylor Ward, another one who I put this in earlier in the day.
He goes 3 for four with a walk and a run scored.
He's still hitting 252.
He's got a 400 on base percentage.
He has two home runs.
He's coming off a season where he had 36 home runs.
It's like he came over to Baltimore and they told him you're, hey, you're going to be the lead off hitter.
And he just decided, you know, he was going to become like Chase Mydroff.
And then that was basically it.
So he also is not hitting well in camping yards at all this season.
So that could be part of it.
What do you think, Chris?
Would you drop Taylor Ward anywhere?
Would you be looking to buy him?
Speaker 3
Taylor Ward is just weird right now.
No hitter in baseball.
Speaker 2
He's always been a weird hitter though, like his career has been all over the place but.
Speaker 3
Specifically this year, no hitter in baseball has a lower swing rate than Taylor Ward.
He has only swung at 31% of swing of pitches that he's faced this season.
The second lowest in baseball is 34%.
Let's just trinkerish.
There's a couple other guys at 34%.
There are only like there are 14 players with a swing rate below 40% and Taylor Ward is at 30.
Walk rate's great 20%, but I think he has clearly crossed over from patient to passive.
His swing rate on pitches in the zone is 50%.
Last year was 54%.
So he was letting a lot of stuff in the zone go by last year.
But yeah, that's, I don't think you can be a viable Major League hitter that way.
I, I guess because he's walking so much, it's, it's been OK, but he is just not doing any damage.
And I, I don't think he's looking to do damage is the problem.
So I, I, I think Ward is an OK buy low candidate just because this is so extreme that I think it has to get better, but there's not a ton to point to, to, to be optimistic about from the, from the power perspective, His swing speed is down 1.6 mph as well.
It really seems like he's just fundamentally altered who he has hit her because his swing speed is down, his swing length is also down.
And it seems like he's really focusing on being super selective, being super protective of the plate.
And maybe that's fine.
Maybe the maybe the Orioles are OK with that out of their lead off hitter.
But from a fantasy perspective it it makes it hard to to believe in.
Speaker 2
Yeah, and he's kind of a tough one to to figure out in terms of like, do I drop him?
Because as bad as he's been in a head to head points league, which is typically the shallowest format, he's still averaging 2.6 fantasy points per game because he's just walking.
So much this.
Speaker 3
Year and he's scoring a bunch of runs like he's on the probably had 92 run pace.
I would guess just eyeballing it he's on like a 40 RBI pace.
Speaker 2
So like what he's he's on pace for like 7 home runs or something?
Speaker 3
Yeah, I mean, he's got 2 homers and 17 RBI.
So he he's basically only helping you in OBP.
If you're in OBP league, that's great. 400 take that every time and runs right now.
Speaker 2
Yeah.
And again in a points league he's been a right.
So I I'd probably hold him in in in any points league.
Speaker 3
I think if you play in a three 3 outfielder head to head categories league he's.
Pretty friendly.
Speaker 2
Yeah, I think you could probably drop him there in a deeper league.
I'm a right benching him.
I probably wouldn't drop him there, but I'm not so confident that I would buy low.
But it sounds like you have a little bit more confidence there in Taylor Ward.
Boba Shet.
Next up.
He went 4 for four today, 4 singles, three RBI.
He has looked a little bit better over his last 16 games, hitting 274, three homers, 13 RBI, hitting the ball really hard, barrelling it up.
The expected stats look good.
Lots of fly balls, a lot of them are going to center field, which is exactly the problem with Boba Shet.
So what are your thoughts here on him?
Are you holding?
Are you buying Boba Shet?
Speaker 3
Buying this is the the one I'm most confident in buying because there just doesn't really seem to be anything wrong.
That's not to say things are perfect for Boba Shett, They're not.
But there doesn't seem to be anything physically wrong with him.
Bat speed is right around where it's supposed to be.
It's actually up a little bit from last year.
Average exit velocity .1 mph down strikeout rate for the most part 16.5% right around where it was last year a couple points higher.
His woe was 259.
Part of that is he's just not hitting the ball in the air to the pool side at all.
But his ex woe was 3/31.
His ex woe over the past hundred plate appearances, 358 last season was 351 for the most part in his career.
He's a guy who plays to his ex Woeba.
So I I think Boba shed is the is the most clear example of a buy among this group.
Speaker 2
It would be totally fine benching him.
I, I would not drop him anywhere.
I have a few leagues myself where I have benched him.
But I, I agree completely on buying him.
And he's somebody that can over a pretty long span, can hit for a massive batting average like we saw last year in the second-half, he hit something like 375.
Like he could, he could just, you know, fully, you know, carry you up a category like that in, in batting average, which is hard to make up later on in the season Points league.
You know, he he's not like a crazy plate discipline guy.
But, yeah, doesn't strike out all that much.
So I, I would be all right, buying him, buying him everywhere.
He still probably won't wind up with many home runs.
And we figured that to be the case in Citi Field this year.
We were all kind of expecting like 15 to 18 home runs this year.
So, you know, maybe he still gets the 15 home runs, but I wouldn't be surprised if by season's end he gets that batting average up to like 270-5280, which means from this point forward he's probably hitting over 300, so.
Speaker 3
And that's one sneaky thing about it, is the fact that he doesn't walk actually makes the batting average even more useful because you're not losing those plate appearances for you're not losing those at bats for walks.
Speaker 2
The last two names here, I'm just going to tie these together real quick.
Chase the Lauder.
His overall numbers are still OK.
He's averaging 2.8 fantasy points per game.
He is a better points league player.
It's good play discipline.
Remember, he had five home runs in his first seven games.
He has just two homers over his last 50 games.
So obviously not providing much else outside of like an OK batting average, decent OBP and Esock Parades, who you mentioned has it's been a little bit better lately.
You had a home run here, three RBI on Wednesday, but his previous 19 games who's hitting one 59590 OPS.
What do you think about De Lauder?
Paradis are the absolute must roster, must hold players.
Would you be looking to buy either?
Speaker 3
Yeah, nothing really looks wrong for Paradis.
Like, OK, compared to other players, a lot looks wrong because he never looks good by the traditional ways that we value players.
He he does not hit the ball hard.
He does not generate, you know, impressive expected wobometrics.
But he hits the ball in the air to the poolside as much as anybody in baseball and he is continuing to do that 37%.
Speaker 2
As long as he plays in Houston, Chris, I'm still going to have faith in it.
Speaker 3
Happening.
Yeah, exactly.
So I I still think, you know, it.
Is it does he get to 25 homers this season?
Probably not.
He'd have to be at a 35 Homer pace or whatever, but that's not impossible for him.
He was on a 30 Homer pace last season before his injuries.
He hit 31 homers in 2023.
We have seen what Isaac Perez can do in the right ballparks.
He's in the right ballpark.
I still expect my, my expectations for Isaac Perez have not really changed very much.
So I, I still I do think this is a a pretty clear buy low.
And then de Lauder, maybe he's just not quite the guy we thought he was in that, you know, the power early on was very impressive.
Well, now the underlying metrics suggest that there's not a ton of power here, right?
His average age velocity is right around average.
His barrel rates a little lower than that makes a lot of contact.
Still think the the overall hit tool is very strong, but maybe it's more 15 homers with a good batting average still useful.
I I think the 258 batting average will improve moving forward and I still think that that makes chase a lot or a buy.
But yeah, maybe it's not a, a big power output.
Maybe it's more, maybe it's more like a Michael Brantley type of profile.
Speaker 2
That makes sense.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Kind of like 18 to 20 homers, good batting average, good OBP kind of guy.
He'll score a lot of runs like the counting stats should be all right, maybe chip in a few bags.
So I think that's a pretty good comp there on Michael Brantley.
I think in a points league I would hold to Lauder.
I have him in the tout worst Champions League.
It's a 12 team, 3 outfielder head to head categories.
The waiver wires loaded.
I I've considered dropping him there and I'm pretty close to doing it so.
Speaker 3
That's reasonable in a three outfielder points league, yeah.
Speaker 2
Any categories like categories like?
Speaker 3
Yeah, yeah, well, any three outfit of the league, I think.
Speaker 2
But in the points league he's actually pretty good. 2.8 points.
Speaker 3
To the game.
So it's basically one to one walk to strike out, right?
Speaker 2
Yeah, yeah.
So that that's something that does help him out in that specific format.
We'll talk about those right after this Welcome back in fantasy baseball today, pitchers moving up pitchers moving down.
How high can these guys get?
Christopher Sanchez, another gem, but the scoreless streak has ended unfortunately. 7 innings of one run ball, 8 strikeouts.
Scoreless streak ends at 50 and 2/3 innings, fifth longest in MLB history.
I guess we could tie these two together right now because Paul Schemes, who is at the top of all of our rankings, he's going through it a little bit right now.
He was at the Astros 4 2/3, seven hits, three runs, still had 7 strikeouts to one walk.
Last four starts for him, 585 ERA, 160 WHIP.
Chris, have you thought about it at all?
Making the swap?
Sanchez up to #1 Pulse.
Keen's down to #2.
Speaker 3
I have not.
Maybe it's time though.
Maybe it's time to think about it.
I'm not saying it's time to do it, but in a points league, I mean honestly even a categories league just cause Sanchez is actually the better strikeout pitcher.
Speaker 2
Sanchez's ERA is more than half of.
Speaker 3
Polski the the expected ERA is lower for Skeens the the FIP is lower for Sanchez.
But yeah, I, I, I think the biggest thing here though is 1.
Sanchez might be just a better strikeout pitcher now.
He has also thrown.
How many innings did Paul Skeens throw today?
He got like 4 2/3 something like that.
Speaker 2
Yeah, that sounds right.
Speaker 3
And it was another 6 for seven.
Speaker 2
7 Yep for.
Speaker 3
Christopher Sanchez So I believe Christopher Sanchez has now thrown 86 and a third innings in 13 starts and Paul Skeens has thrown exactly 70 in 13 starts.
Speaker 2
So you get more volume.
Speaker 3
Exact same number of starts and you've got what is 10 more innings from no 1616 more innings from Christopher Sanchez.
That ain't nothing at three points per inning, that's actually quite a bit.
So I I think in points leagues it's it's at least worth having the discussion twofold. 1 is Paul schemes really a first rounder and a points league?
Maybe not.
And two, is Christopher Sanchez, you know, definitively a second round, or is he a top 20 pick, a top 18 pick?
Yeah, I think both of those might be true.
So I'm not ready to move Sanchez above schemes.
And if you're not ready to do that, then you cannot move Sanchez up because he's the number 2 starting pitcher, I think, across the board, right?
But it's it's a discussion worth having, yes.
Speaker 2
I'm going to update the rankings on Thursday and it's that's one that I'm going to think about quite a bit right there.
The next two.
I'm just not sure how high they can get.
Shohei Otani just another quality start.
Ho hum 6 shutout innings, 6 strikeouts here at the D backs.
He has allowed a total of 5 earned runs in 10 starts this season.
He has a quality start in nine of 10 and Chase Burns 6 innings of two run ball 9 strikeouts here, 19 whiffs again since the Royals and he's down to a two O 5 ERA .96 WHIP.
He's allowed two and runs are fewer in nine straight.
So I'm eyeball in the rankings.
I have Ohtani at 7:00.
I I can't imagine getting it much higher than that.
Like maybe he's more valuable than his teammate Yamamoto.
Like, I guess I wouldn't be crazy.
Speaker 3
I I can't get there and, and I think the, the biggest thing is just, OK, yeah, Otani's better than Yamamoto.
Yamamoto's probably still going to have like a 10 to 15% edge in volume.
He's thrown nine more innings than Otani.
Even though Otani's been significantly better.
You're just very rarely going to ever get more than six innings from Otani and you're never going to get that second start in a week.
And so I do just think there is a cap to how high you can move him in the rankings on a perning basis.
Look there, there might be 3 better pitchers or 4 better pitchers in baseball, but it's probably not much more than that, right?
Like it's skiing Sanchez, Sale, Mesirowski maybe.
But I, I do think Otani's just going to continue to be at a, a, an innings deficit.
And so that is that's tougher to overcome.
And I don't think that's likely to change.
Burns, he's on pace for about 175 innings and the Reds are, I believe, currently in last place in their division.
They're also above 500.
So this is a team that I, I think is going to push for the playoffs.
I think they're going to be aggressive to try to get there.
That's going to mean that they're going to have to monitor chase Burns innings because I think he threw 111 last year.
If you include the post season, he threw 100 the previous year in college.
I could see him getting to 16170 ish for the regular season.
But I wouldn't be surprised if they try to keep it on the lower end of that 160 because you know, hopefully you're going to make a deep playoff run and and you might push him to 180 if that's the case.
And then that starts to get a little hairy.
So I would guess they're going to try to limit him to like 160 innings.
And that's not going to mean pulling him out of the rotation or anything, but it might mean what we saw with Paul Skeens last year a couple times where it's like he's only at 80 pitches, 5 innings.
We're just going to pull him.
We've got a four, nothing lead or especially 1.
Hunter Green comes back.
Hey, we'll skip his last start before the All Star break.
Line him up as the 5th starter after the All Star break.
Try to, you know, take a start or two out that way.
I do think that's going to be a thing for Chase Burns.
But again, like Shohei Otani, we're talking Burning basis.
I don't know if there's more than 6 to 8 pitchers who are better than Chase Burns at this point.
Like we've all had Nolan McLean ahead of him all the all all the way around.
And I think you probably should still have Nolan McLean ahead of him, although I think Scott mentioned the other day he might have already made that swap.
Speaker 2
Yeah, I know Scott's updating his rankings tonight.
He moved Chase Burns up to SP12.
He's ahead of McClain.
Speaker 3
I've got him at 10 in in Roto I believe.
So I I'm it's not a question of not liking burns.
Actually, I do have Burns ahead of McClain.
Speaker 2
Yeah, but Burns is ahead of McClain now for sure.
I.
Speaker 3
Think McClain might throw 20 more innings?
Yeah, that's not nothing.
Speaker 2
Yeah, two other pitchers moving up here, Max Meyer and Peyton Tolley, just two more really strong outings from both of these guys.
Looking at the rankings, I I think Tolley is like inching closer towards being like a Top 40, like top 36 type starting pitcher.
And Max Meyer, I looked, I just looked, we both have them outside of our top 50.
I I think that probably needs to change.
He's just, he's been so consistent.
He's starting to give us length now as well.
So I think Max Meyer top 50.
I think Peyton Tolley closer to Top 40 starting pitcher.
Speaker 3
Yeah, let me let me find my note on Meyer because I did this.
You know, we talked a lot about the biggest breakouts, starting pitcher Max Meyers, you know, not quite there, but he's been phenomenal.
And it's interesting that this is now 2 starts in a row where two start to go.
He didn't throw his slider very much.
And then today, slider wasn't great in this one, but he was still able to be effective in this one, not so much the previous start.
Sweeper picked up the slack.
It is hard to envision a version of Max Meyer who is good without a great slider.
That's been just so key to him going back to when he was drafted.
And so I imagine that we'll get back to being his best swing and miss pitch.
But it is something that I'm monitoring here.
But lucky he's good, I think a clear step below even totally.
Yeah.
So not a Top 40 pitcher, but top 48 that that seems reasonable.
Speaker 2
Yeah, one name moving down.
We already spoke about Garrick Cole and Kirby, who were part of this list.
But Taj Bradley, 4 2/3 innings, four runs, five walks in this one.
He still did have 15 whiffs on 104 pitches.
It's two rough outings in a row.
Hasn't looked as good since coming back from the injury.
We always thought that there would be some regression here.
Chris, what do you, what do you make of Taj Bradley right now?
Are you?
Would you use him next week?
He's against the Cardinals and at the Tigers.
Speaker 3
Yes, I think you start him for that.
I know it's been a rough patch right now since he came off the IL.
Was it 2, two or three starts since he came off the IL?
Speaker 2
Three starts here.
Speaker 3
And I I do worry there's some Mackenzie Gore here with Taj Bradley where there's just going to be some inherent volatility that limits his appeal.
Speaker 2
He's just so erratic, man.
Speaker 3
He's so erratic and you also have to look at OK, 356 take that you have 356 ERA at the end of the season from Taj Bradley with 10 point 4K per nine.
You're thrilled except 132 whip.
That is bad for a, you know, guy who's going to be in your leg that's going to be an anchor on your whip.
And then that's really hard to to overcome.
So I, I do think, you know, we were talking Bilo heck no earlier.
I do think Taj Bradley is still a sell high candidate if the last two starts haven't hurt his appeal that much 'cause he he's not someone I feel super confident trusting moving forward.
If I could move him for gosh, it's hard to come up with a a good name for it, but.
Speaker 2
How about like any of the hitters from earlier?
I mean, I don't.
Speaker 3
Think you get?
Yeah, I don't think you get.
Speaker 2
Like the higher end guys, but if you could turn Dodge Bradley into I like Paradis or Bob Bouchette.
Speaker 3
Yeah, I I think that would be OK.
I I think she's like Kyler Glass now.
If you have an IL spot to play with would be interesting.
Yeah, it is It is surprisingly hard just looking through the the picture list to come up with Nick Ladolo.
I I think I would still take.
Yeah, it is.
It is surprisingly hard to come up with a a good target for Tosh Bradley.
Speaker 2
All right, let's get into you some waiver wire pitchers here from Wednesday's action.
Chris, do you think any of these five are more than just streamers?
So Troy Melton had a great game at the Rays, 8 innings, two runs, five strikeouts.
We're just not really seeing strikeouts.
He has 9 strikeouts over 20 and 2/3 innings so far.
Walbert Arania Another quality start this morning against the Rockies. 6 innings, three runs, 7 strikeouts for him.
Grant Holmes A quality start against the Blue Jays. 6 innings, two runs, 4 strikeouts.
He had 10 whiffs on 89 pitches.
Looks like he lines up for two starts next week.
Stephen Kollek Strong outing at the Reds, 6 innings, two runs, a season high. 8 strikeouts in that one.
Also looks like he lines up for two against the Rangers and the Astros.
And Andre Palante, Another solid outing, 5 and 2/3, one run, 5 strikeouts against the Rangers.
He gets the Mets next week.
Do you think any of these five have like, staying power, just being more than just streamers?
Speaker 3
I think Melton might, he's the one I'm most interested in here, but the problem is he's had a lot of success in his first three starts and there's not a lot to back it up.
He's just not missing many bats.
Only 9 strikeouts in 22 thirds innings, six walks at least, you know, only two walks in this one.
That's a good sign.
But he's had very, very good success through the first three starts in a way that I don't really buy.
And so that makes it harder to to say, hey, yeah, go add Troy Melton everywhere.
I I do think among this group he's the most interesting because we saw him miss some bats last season.
I think there's some upside there, but he still hasn't quite put it together at the Major League level despite, you know, decent results.
Speaker 2
It feels kind of Justin Wroblewski.
Speaker 3
A little bit, yeah.
And look, we have seen Justin Wroblewski find ways to get more with lately and.
And maybe Melton can do that once you know, he has to adapt.
What he's doing right now is working.
He's generating some weak contact, but it's not as exciting as I wish it was for Troy Melton.
And then Arania, I think remains interesting.
I, I don't know if he's advanced beyond that yet.
The ERA is great, the whip is not.
The strikeouts are mediocre.
The walk rate is really bad.
I, I, I think there is Jose Soriano.
Speaker 2
Light, right?
Speaker 3
There's a Jose Soriano starter kit here and he just, he doesn't have the, the swing and miss that, or at least the multiple swing and miss pitches, I guess is the better way to say it for Soriano.
Soriano has both the curveball and the splitter.
With Irania, it's mostly just to change up that misses bat.
So I'm intrigued by Robert Irania.
I I think he's still just a a streamer for now.
Everyone else I I think are just clearly just streamers.
Speaker 2
Yeah.
Would you have any interest in like a Grant Holmes against the White Sox and Mets next week as a two star pitcher?
Speaker 3
I don't hate it, but it's not like he's already 56% rostered.
It's hard to think of too many leagues where where Grant Holmes needs to be rostered, but for A2 start week, yeah, sure, he's useful in a points league.
That's pretty risky in a in a roto league though.
Speaker 2
What about Kolek against the Rangers and the Astros, both at home?
Speaker 3
So Kolek, he did throw the the slider more in this one and that's been pretty clearly his best pitch at the usage rate was up 20, what was up to 20% from 11%.
That's been his best pitch this season.
I do think there's something interesting there if Kolek starts to lean on that slider a little bit more, but I don't really see, I don't really see it otherwise yet.
I'm, I'm not saying, you know, obviously last two of the last three starts have been excellent. 1 was really bad.
I I don't quite see it there yet, but the the slider today was very interesting at least.
Speaker 2
I would probably put Wahlberg Irania at the top of this list.
I I am pretty intrigued by that change up that he's throwing.
I wish he had more than than just that, but you know, he's finding ways to get good results right now.
It could be could turn out to be more than a streamer.
I don't think I would take him over like yesterday we talked about gauge jump and.
Speaker 3
Oh yeah, no, I'd rather have gauge.
Speaker 2
Jump like Dustin May.
I don't know Dustin May or Walbert Orania.
Speaker 3
Dustin May, I think.
Speaker 2
Feels pretty close.
Speaker 3
Better better supporting cast if nothing else defensively.
Speaker 2
For definitely, definitely better defense, no doubt about that.
Anything to see here with some of these deeper names.
Walker Bueller, Andrew Alvarez of the Nationals, Eric Fetti and Robert Gasser.
Again, very deep names here.
All had good starts.
I don't know how the Brewers, I mean, it must be like they start this organizationally, but basically any pitcher they have has an awesome fastball.
It's just like Robert Gasser comes up awesome fastball.
It's like.
Speaker 3
I mean, that's that's an amenative determination determinism right there.
Guy named Gasser has a good fastball I.
Speaker 2
Mean it's obviously, but it's.
Speaker 3
Like I do not think Walker Buehler is interesting.
I think we are like four or five years removed from Walker Buehler being interesting.
So that's an easy one.
Whatever do if there's a good match up, maybe you can use him.
He's at home against Cincinnati at Baltimore next week.
It's OK in a two in a two start week.
I I wouldn't want to use them in a row.
Alvarez, I do think it's kind of interesting.
He's got the two really good swing and miss breaking balls.
The fastball with rates I think are both below 10% for the season.
So that's kind of an extreme version of what we've talked about with, no the Tigers guy who's hurt now he's out for the season, they can't blanking on the name.
Speaker 2
Yeah, me too.
Speaker 3
All right, it's fine.
He's out for the season.
It doesn't matter.
But yeah, that where like you're just trying to get to 2 start, 2 strikes to to put guys away and Reese Olsen.
Reese Olsen, yeah, that's the one.
And you know, it took him 82 pitches to get to 4 2/3 innings.
He's not on a very good team.
I know the Nationals have scored a lot of runs, but the defense is still bad.
I think Alvarez is kind of interesting, but not someone you need to go add yet and.
Speaker 2
Like, you know, only and 15 teamers, you know Alvarez with the whiffs and he does have a 54% ground ball rate.
Like a little intrigued, a little bit.
Speaker 3
Yes.
And then Gasser, I think there's some talent here for sure, but we need more than one good 5 inning start to to say he needs to be roster more, especially because I have no idea if he's going to stick in the rotation.
They they did basically have Chad Patrick piggyback him and I think it went 4 innings for Patrick.
So yeah, it's not sure what the plan is for Gasser moving forward.
Speaker 2
Yeah, I don't even know if he sticks around, to be honest, in the rotation.
So we'll have to see, but I think long term if you have gas from like a dynasty league, I think it's pretty interesting from a long term perspective.
Maybe not, you know, over the next couple weeks or months with the with the Brewers waiver wire hitter Sam Antonacci, huge game, 4 for four with a walk, 2 double, S2 runs scored over his last 10.
He is hitting 341, seven runs scored, three steals.
He leading off against righties.
I think he's good.
Chris, he's 54% rostered.
I think, you know, again, we've kind of lumped him in with those young outfielders.
I think he has moved clearly ahead of AJ Ewing.
I think he's moved ahead of Ryan Walshmidt.
Waltzman's been OK.
He just hasn't made too much of an impact outside of this like good batting average.
I probably would still take Carson Binge over Antonacci, but it is really close between those two.
Speaker 3
Sam Antonacci is the Luke key show we were promised.
Speaker 2
Yeah, pretty much.
Speaker 3
Like the the batting average looks legit he's up to 291.
His xba is actually 310.
That's awesome he's making a lot of contact he's making good contact he's got like average ish pop.
You know maybe a slight a tick below average, but he hits the ball to all fields.
He makes a lot of contact he's pretty fast he's running a lot.
I think he's attempt to 12 steals success rate 8 out eight out of 12.
That's not great.
But I think the most important thing is that he's being aggressive and he, you know, was better in in May.
It was 8 out of 10.
I think if this guy can be a 30 steel guy, he's, I think he's hitting lead off every day for the the White Sox at this point.
Speaker 2
At least against righties.
I'm not.
I don't think he is against lefties.
Speaker 3
If he's going to hit 290, which seems reasonable, you know, or let's say 280, be a little more conservative because it's hard to hit 290.
That doesn't sound that different from like, Nico Horner.
Yeah, Nico Horner is better, but you know, 95% as good as Nico Horner at everything.
That's not a bad player.
That's a pretty good player.
I I think Sam Antonacci is really under roster at 54%.
Speaker 2
Would you do you agree that you would take Carson Bench over him?
Speaker 3
I still think I would take Carson Bench over him.
Carson Bench, I think there's.
Speaker 2
A little bit more.
I think there's a little bit more juice there with bench.
Speaker 3
A little more pop for sure.
The last 30 days Carson bench has been really good.
So I'm I'm still doing that.
But if you want to take Antonacci ahead of viewing or.
Speaker 2
Walshmidt I would.
Speaker 3
Yeah, Walshmidt's a little iffier, but Walshmidt is striking out a lot, at least last I saw.
I guess it's been a couple of days and the the sample size is small enough for a player that early in his career that maybe it's stabilized.
But no, it's 32%.
So there's definitely some swing and miss there for Walshmidt.
So I'm OK with Antonacci ahead of a Walshmidt as well.
Speaker 2
We did get a nice bounce back game here from AJ Ewing, 3 for five with his fifth stolen base, but previous 14 games before this one he was hitting 191 with a 40% strikeout rate.
He's also been really bad against lefty so far in a small sample.
So 56% rostered.
I'm not here to tell people, hey, you got to go out and re add AJ Ewing.
But are you holding like what size leagues are you hold holding AJ Ewing in right now?
Is it just all 5 outfielder?
Speaker 3
Leagues, probably any 5 outfielder league and it's hard to justify in the three outfielder league I think.
Speaker 2
OK, I know we spoke about him yesterday, but I I don't know, maybe Kyle Manzardo is kind of starting up a heater here 3 for four with his 7th home run.
He is homered in back-to-back games and has started in eight straight.
So 23% rostered corner infielder with pop.
I think we no Kyle Manzardo is when he's at his best is can he get back to his best?
Looks like he's inching closer to that right now.
Can I interest you in any of these names?
Nick Gonzalez hit his second home run.
It's mostly empty batting average, but it is a really good batting average.
Von Grissom 2 for five with his fourth Homer, three RBI.
Once Upon a time prospect pedigree.
He's getting a chance to play right now.
Andrew Penintendi has three home runs in his past five games.
Over his last 15, he has a 960 OPS.
JP Crawford 3 for four with a double in his tenth Homer.
Over his last 10, he is batting 317 with four homers.
Can I interest you in any of those names, Chris?
JP Crawford, Benintendi Von Grissom and Nick Gonzalez, Nick.
Speaker 3
Gonzalez, if you need batting average, I, I think that's all he's really going to help you with.
You're not going to get much of anything otherwise.
But.
Speaker 2
Very niche if you're in a deeper points league.
It it kind of works with him, yeah.
Although.
Speaker 3
Like, you know, he's on pace for, I guess about like 75 to 80 runs in RBI.
That's not terrible.
This is the kind of player that if he ends up hitting 290 by the end of the season, he's going to be surprisingly highly ranked.
Speaker 2
Like 29010107575.
Speaker 3
Yeah, like that's going to be like AI don't know, 7 or $8 player in fantasy.
It's just not exciting.
Over the course of a season, you're you're always going to be shooting for a little more.
Speaker 2
It's like a perfect NL only player to have a.
Speaker 3
Oh yeah, absolutely.
But Grissom I just don't like.
He should have for better batting average than he has, and I think that's the only real path to him being a useful fantasy option.
But he is playing right now with Nolan Shanuel out.
I don't know how long that's going to last.
Speaker 2
His average TV is up almost like 5 mph on Grissom.
Speaker 3
To what like?
Speaker 2
89 from 86 to 90.9.
Speaker 3
OK, so 91, that's better than I thought it was.
I, I thought I'd look the other day and it wasn't that impressive.
Maybe he's been hitting the ball better a couple the last couple of days.
Yeah, I, I still think he is 1st and 3rd eligible.
I think he's got might be first, second and third actually, I'll look it up.
So that'd be useful.
I think 10% is probably a little bit low for Andrew or Von Grissom, but it's probably not not someone in any points league first.
Speaker 2
First, second and third.
Speaker 3
OK, yeah.
So that that's, that's nice to have.
Like, you know, I've been writing a lot about Ezekiel Duran for the waiver wire column every week and it's kind of just like he's not great.
But having a guy who's eligible, I mean, in Ezekiel Duran's case, first, second, third, short, outfield, different, but having first, second and third, I think that's a nice bonus.
It's a nice differentiator.
So in a deeper league, I think von Grissom has some appeal.
Speaker 2
Anything on benintendi or JP Crawford?
Speaker 3
Crawford I think this is just a a, a thing that happens when you play every day is you'll have stretches where you look pretty good and then you'll have stretches where you look pretty bad.
For the most part, he has not looked all that good this season.
So I'm inclined to if you want to ride the hot hand at shortstop, it's always hard to find waiver wire guys at shortstop if you need them.
So if you want to ride the hot hand with him, I I think that's OK, but I'm I'm not particularly excited about it and Ben attendee kind of the same thing.
He is at least selling out for power and I think he might be a a decent ish power hitter but I don't think it's anything that matters outside of 15 team leagues.
Speaker 2
A name for those in deeper 2 catcher leagues.
Mickey Gasper playing well for the Red Sox right now.
One for four with a walk, a triple, two RBI.
He has started seven of the past 10 games.
And he was performing pretty well down in the minors.
He had a 429 on base percentage with six home runs down there.
He's walking a bunch so far.
He's hitting the ball hard.
So, yeah, very deeply name.
But in, you know, 15 team, two catcher leagues, anyone who has a pulse right now, Mickey Gasper, he has a pulse.
He has a pulse. 3 bats that needed a big game and they got it.
Ozzy Alby's two for four with his 10th Homer, three RBI.
His previous 24 games before this two O 4 batting average with a 527 OPS say Suzuki ended the slump.
He hit his eighth home run.
He last homered on May 8th. 22 games in between, he hit 167 with 0 homers obviously and a four O 4 OPS.
And Kyle, Kyle Tucker did something, anything 3 for five with his.
I had to make sure this was right.
Fifth home run of the season.
Kyle Tucker, man, it's like, jeez.
Any thoughts Chris on Alby's Suzuki or Kyle Tucker?
Speaker 3
I still have a lot of faith in Kyle Tucker.
If we were re drafting today I would probably still take him as like a late 2nd rounder.
I I I'm not sure why he struggled.
Maybe it's the, the pressure of, you know, the big contract and playing for a contender.
I know he's played for contenders before he's won a World Series before, but maybe there's something there.
The the underlying stats certainly aren't as good as they normally are.
But for a 29 year old who has been as good as he has, unless he's dealing with an injury or, you know, maybe there's some lingering effects of the injuries he's dealt with the last couple years.
But I, I don't really see much reason to think that.
So I I think it's probably just a slow start now.
Suzuki has been pretty bad since the second-half of last season.
So we're going on like four months of him being a little unspectacular.
He doesn't have the track record.
Kyle Tucker does.
He is older.
Say Suzuki, you know, he'll turn 32 later this season that that's old enough that it could be happening.
You know, that the drop off.
I I'm inclined to think you should still buy low on him.
I haven't panicked about the slow start, but it's it's not, it's not nothing there.
Speaker 2
Yeah, I I think I would pretty confidently buy on say Suzuki right now as well.
The with Kyle Tucker, the home Rd. splits man, I don't know what it is, but he has not hit in Dodger Stadium so far at home 190-6609 OPS on the road 280-8863.
So I mean, if we were just getting.
Speaker 3
Yeah, mostly if he was.
Speaker 2
Hitting 288 with an 863 OPS, we'd be like, oh, Kyle Tucker's fine, Kyle.
Speaker 3
Tucker's great, yeah.
Speaker 2
Probably have like 10 or 12 homers, like, whatever.
And he, you know, he'd say, oh, there's nothing wrong with Kyle Tucker.
Some pitching leftovers.
The good, the bad, the ugly.
Logan Webb, one of the best starts of his season so far at the Brewers. 7 shutout innings with four strikeouts for him.
Freddy Peralta, a quality start at the Mariners. 6 innings, one run, 6 strikeouts.
He had 18 whiffs on 101 pitches.
We'll pause there.
Any thoughts on Logan Webb and Freddy Peralta?
Speaker 3
I think this train keeps rolling for for Peralta and then Webb.
It's nice to see the good outing.
I I didn't really doubt that it was going to come, you know, at some point the the the turn around and it's been a a rough season for him, but I don't think the skills have really changed much here for Logan Webb.
So I I'm mostly just expecting Logan Webb to be very good moving forward.
Speaker 2
Yeah, I did notice with Logan Webb, he just kind of diversified his pitch mix a bunch.
And in this one he used five different pitches between 13% and 27%.
And normally it's just like a lot of sinkers, a lot of change ups and like he mixes and some other stuff.
But he threw more cutters in the start.
It was a really good pitch for him.
So perhaps that's the key to getting Logan Webb back on track.
The bad Spencer Araghetti, he's human after all.
Four innings, four runs, only three strikeouts, only one walk.
I mean, that's usually the problem here for Araghetti.
Still has a 194 ERA, 118 WHIP.
All the underlying stuff screams sell high.
Do you agree with that?
Speaker 3
I think the biggest issue is just is anybody buying?
If they are, then yes, I think Araghati is a sellout candidate for sure.
I just, I don't know if people are given how mediocre he's been for most of his career, how small the sample size is here.
If someone is viewing Spencer Aragati as a top 50 starting pitcher, yeah I think you should try to move him because the skills indicators do not suggest that he is even even a must roster pitcher, frankly. 8 like 8.1 K per nine that's that's pretty mediocre.
Speaker 2
Yeah, almost five walks per night.
His his K minus walk rate among starting pitchers with 50 innings.
It's tied for 99th out of 118 pitchers.
Speaker 3
That's not surprising.
I, I mean, we set this after his last start, which I think was very good one and he was the American League pitcher of the month for May and all that.
And it's just, but the, the skills indicators have really taken or not really taking a step back because he was bad last year, but have really just not been very good.
So I'm I can't say I would drop Spencer Araghetti, but I don't think he's a must roster pitcher right now.
Speaker 2
I did have someone tell me on Twitter that they traded Aragetti for Manny Machado.
That's like classic buy low, sell high.
Absolutely.
Heck yeah.
I'm not sure that it'll work, but I mean, you could try, try it out.
And then the ugly, big old regression start for Nick Martinez. 4 innings, six runs allowed.
Look, he's been so good all year.
He's allowed to have a bad start.
There will be more regression coming.
There's no doubt about that.
But you know, this should be expected.
There will be some more bad starts mixed in with all the good that Nick Martinez has provided so far.
Some hitting leftover is Dylan Dingler another 1-2 for four with his 14th home run.
We did get a request to call Dingler home runs.
Ding a lings, Chris, Absolutely.
Sure.
Yep.
Jose Ramirez, we mentioned earlier, loves facing the Yankees 3 for four with a sock and a shoe.
His ninth Homer, his 21st steal and all this talk about PCA.
Look, he has not lived up to his draft stock.
I get that.
But he hit his eighth home run here.
He's on pace for 20 homers, 31 steals, 88 runs, 73 RBI.
It's not terrible.
Speaker 3
It's not worth what you paid for him.
No, it's not, but it's not bad.
I mean.
Speaker 2
Coming into the year, if I told you, hey, PCA is going to hit 20 homers with 30 seals, he would have been like, yeah, that's what I'm expecting.
Speaker 3
Yeah, I would have just hoped for better than the 241 batting average, but.
Speaker 2
There's still time, but.
Speaker 3
Yeah, but, you know, if he was the, I don't know, 75th player drafted instead of the 35th player drafted, I think the conversation around him would be a lot different.
Speaker 2
Yep, the call to the bullpen for the Tigers with A5 run lead.
It was Drew Anderson who closed out the game and who knows, maybe he steps up with Kenley Hurt.
Vinnegan and and Will Vest have been pretty, pretty bad for the Marlins.
P Fairbanks picked up his 7th save for the Phillies.
Yowan Duran picked up his 14th for the Reds.
Tony Santian, he is just, he's shot right now.
He's got nothing.
He got the 9th with the game tied.
He allowed three runs on a walk and three hits including a Homer.
He's got a 665 ERA, 152 WHIP.
I don't know who will get the next save opportunity, but it will not be Tony Santian.
Speaker 3
I just don't know who it should be.
Speaker 2
Like like TJ Antone, like I, I really don't.
I don't know.
Speaker 3
Yeah, I mean, he, Antone saved some games like four or five years ago, right?
Yeah, five years ago.
Brock Burke.
Speaker 2
I don't know.
Speaker 3
Yeah, Brock Burke like the, the skills indicators aren't particularly impressive there and the ARA is like 350 just yeah, I just, I, I think the biggest problem with the Reds bullpen is I just don't really think any of these guys are very good.
And so that's that's, that's a tough one to project.
Speaker 2
For the Royals, Daniel Lynch worked the 8th inning with the game tied.
He picked up the win.
Royals took that three run lead.
It was old friend Alex Lang who got the 9th inning.
He allowed a hit and a walk but shrunk out two for his first save.
He does have some experience closing, but Daniel Lynch has clearly been their best reliever.
So they used Lynch in a high leverage spot here with the game tied again and they took the lead.
I I would probably bet on Daniel lynch getting the next save opportunity for the Royals, but maybe it'll be Lang.
You know he here so.
Speaker 3
I would guess Lynch, but not with a ton of confidence.
Speaker 2
For the Guardians, Kate Smith got the 9th inning with A2 run lead.
He did allow one run but picked up his 21st save.
For the Giants with A1 run lead.
Keaton Wynn got the final five outs for his first save.
Caleb Killian worked Sunday and Tuesday, so this would have been his third appearance and four ninths.
Do you think we're starting to see a bit of a changing of the guard here, Chris, Or it was just Caleb Killian was unavailable?
Speaker 3
It's possible, but anytime you go with the five out save, it's hard to to view like that.
That's such an outlier for most closers that it's hard to to look at that and say this is projectable moving forward.
So I'm not inclined to go out and add Keaton win right now.
Speaker 2
All right for the A's, they took a one run lead in the 10th inning.
It was Justin Sterner who picked up his first save of the season.
The A's do not have any closer and they never will ever again.
For the Pirates, Gregory Soto entered with two outs in the 8th, 2 runners on a three run lead.
He allowed two singles, a wild pitch, a bases clearing triple and the Astros took an 11 to 9 lead, which meant the return of Josh Hader.
He came in, he walked one, he struck out one, picked up his first save velocity way up from his rehab.
It was actually up from where it was last year.
Slider was up 2.1 mph seems all.
Let's see how he bounces back, obviously.
But great, great, great first outing here for Josh Hader.
To stream or not to stream on Thursday?
We have Trevor Rogers at the Red Sox, Kai Wei Tang against the Pirates, Ryan Nelson against the Dodgers, Brian Baio against the Orioles, Giulito at the Phillies.
Speaker 3
I am not thrilled.
I'm not thrilled that they are going with Brian Baio as the actual starter rather than an opener.
It's been so successful with him as the opener that I just don't understand why you would make that change.
But Baio's been good enough for a while that he he's the best option on this list.
Speaker 2
He's the only one I would use.
Speaker 3
Yeah, I mean, Trevor Rogers, I I still have some hope that he'll turn it around, but I don't have faith in it right now.
Speaker 2
Yeah, yeah, Thursday, not a good day to stream.
If you have to choose one, I would go Baio.
On Friday we have Kumar Rocker against the Guardians, Zebby Matthews against the Royals, Christian Scott at the Padres, JT Ginn at the Astros, Reed Detmer's and rookie Sasaki going up against each other.
Speaker 3
I think Sasaki is the most interesting one here.
There is a part of me that's like now that I'm starting to believe in Sasaki a little bit and he has a good match up against the Angels, like, oh, this is one it falls apart.
But you know, we talked about it on the On the Weekend podcast.
Sky and I both really like a lot of what we've seen from Sasaki.
That was the bestest fastball has ever looked.
I think his most recent start, past couple starts, really, the fastballs look better.
I think the new splitter with the slower forkball is working really well for him.
I think Sasak is the most interesting one here.
If I had to pick a second, it's JT Ginn.
Speaker 2
I agree, I would go to Sasaki Ginn if you want a third.
Christian Scott has done some OK things at the Padres.
Their offense is terrible.
They just, they just lost.
Speaker 3
Loriano, he barely even finished his five innings.
That's true, is the concern.
And then, oh, actually, no, no.
Speaker 2
No, yeah, I would put Zebby.
Speaker 3
Actually good match up against the the Royals.
So I I think it's OK.
Speaker 2
Sasaki, Gin, Zebby, those are the three I would use.
Denver's I'm intrigued by, but no way I'm using a mad.
Speaker 3
Dodgers, yeah.
And, and I would take Sasaki, Gin and maybe Matthew's ahead of anybody on Thursday.
Speaker 2
Yep, Yep, I agree with that as well.
We are going to wrap there for Chris.
I am Frank, thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today.
Please make sure to follow and leave a five star rating on app for Spotify and we will be back again tomorrow.
Bye bye.