69 stats to help you DOMINATE fantasy football this year

[MUSIC] >> Welcome back. It's beyond the box score. I'm Dan Chinier. Joy is always my coach, Jacob Gibbs. And today we've got a special guest on the podcast. Mr. Scott Barrett and it's a special podcast episode because it's the birthday boys episode. Both birthdays, Jacob and Scott, I'm not going to announce their ages on there. They can reveal that if they'd like to. But for this birthday episode, we decided we'd dive into 69 dank stats to define to 2026 fantasy season. We're going to give you stats today that may make you rethink players as you go through the draft pool. And as you consider how you want to build out your rosters. And that's about as good as it gets for a birthday show. And it's fun to have Scott on for me because Scott's one of the first few people I knew in the fantasy football industry. When I was doing nothing and I was working at home, living at home at the time. Or now I was living in my Claire at the time. I wasn't living at home, but close to that wasn't anywhere near the fantasy football industry. I met Scott Barrett and we wrote together at Pro Football Focus. Think about that and think about where they have gone. But now Scott is at fantasy points and that is a much better place. No offense to pro football focus. No all offense to pro football focus. He can tell you a little bit about that. We've pretty much know what it is though. Jacob and I reference them all the time on this show. So Scott, why don't you tell the people where they can find all your work and everything else you're doing. Yeah, you could find my work at fantasypoints.com. My draft guy comes out Monday. So I'm way behind on that. Probably going to skip birthday celebrations and post that week. And yeah, fantasy points. Also fantasy points data really appreciate you guys always shouting us out. I like the comparison versus PFF. Just last week, former NFL director of analytics, Ryan Pagnetti tweeted out that, hey, I had access to the stats that NFL teams paid six figures for every year. I had that for 10 years and I can tell you fantasy points data's accuracy is better than that source. You're talking about PFF obviously. And dude, I really believe that to be the case. You know, people might not believe that or look down on us because we have fantasy in our name, but really, truthfully, you know, lowly fantasy points data is more accurate than the, you know, $100 million juggernaut that is PFF. And yeah, so check out the fantasy points data suite. Check out my content at fantasypoints.com. My draft guide comes out Monday. You'll get all of my exodia plays. Shout out to all the euheo nerds out there who know what that is. And yeah, you Dan. That's definitely me. Oh, that's definitely me. Anything with the word nerd in it is usually me. See, I can't let myself be too nerdy. Like people try to get me into game of thrones and I'm like, listen, I'm a full time fantasy football nerd. I can't, I can't have another nerdy thing, but you're just embracing it. You're just giving me all the nerdy thing. Not only into game of thrones, I actually watched the lore episodes they put on YouTube. That's how sad it is for me. But today we're talking fantasy football. We don't have time to talk about game of thrones. Let's get into these dank stats. That's what the people are here for when it started off with Scott, I believe, and then we're going to pass it over to Jacob. And I'm going to do one bonus fun dank stat at the end. Oh, I'm excited for your stat. But yeah, Jacob and I very much known for being the the dank stats guys. I don't have my best 30, whatever it is. I'm a little, I guess I'd behind on the draft guide. So a little disjointed going to have to pull things from my notes. But first at Jamar chase is the unanimous wide receiver one. He goes 103 in every FFPC draft, Pukin, Akua goes 105, 106. But Jamar chase is outscored the Rams wide receiver one in only one of the last five seasons. And so to me, what does the stat say? It says, no, I don't know. I don't know that it's a foregone conclusion that Jamar chase should be the wide receiver one this year. Another stat on a different wide receiver is Jackson Smith and Jigba's 20, 25 season was literally one of the best in NFL history. I made the case he should have got MVP votes. But or certainly at least, you know, offensive player of the year votes by yards, protein pass attempt. It was the second greatest wide receiver season since the 1950s. Lance Bambi all worth was one. Jackson Smith and Jigba's 20, 25 season was two by yards, protein pass attempt. Another wide receiver stat for you guys. Justin Jefferson from week 10 until the end of the fantasy season, the final nine games. Yeah, first just 8.6 fantasy points for game. That ranked tied with Theo Weiss, 0.1 above, Chameer, DK. And so like, what does that say that says like, hey, you're drafting this guy in round one, but you showed you a floor that. I don't know that any other wide receiver in that range has. I don't know that a gimpie Malik neighbors has that floor. I don't know that city lamb with George Pickens going crazy has that floor. I think their floors a lot higher than that. And like, even if you want to say a Kyler Murray's the starting quarterback, Kyler Murray's only ever had one wide receiver finished top 24 at the position in total fantasy point. I don't see that as a major upgrade. Another stat for you Malik neighbors. Yeah, yeah, over his last seven full games, the average is 22 fantasy points per game. J.S. ends at 17.3 CD lambs at 15.6. And once again, Justin Jefferson 8.3. So fully healthy Malik neighbors like if Malik neighbors is fully healthy, you know, I might be drafting right after only Puka. I might draft him ahead of J.S. and behind the book and chase. But that's that's really what it comes down to with him is is what's going on with that that injury and probably Dan, you could speak to that better than anyone else. Well, I love the fact that he's not on the public and he may be practicing early in training camp and I love the fact that you follow the same draft ideal, I think as we do here at Beyond the Box or we draft for upside, we try to win leagues and we're not really looking at the floor plays and I feel like that's an interesting case with Malik neighbors because even right now a lot of people are saying wow you have him ranked all the way I haven't ranked all the way up at wider. So I'm like, I don't know if I feel low on him right now at wider super 14 if you're drafting the way that you just kind of prescribe those stats and that's really interesting just to see what he's done at this level and I would say he probably has better quarterback play than he's at at any point is career this year. Yeah, for sure that's all really interesting so just to be clear to anybody who's confused why we're doing 69 stats it's not just to be vulgar. I'm turning 32 this year and if you add Scott's age to mine it equals 68 and then we've got one stat from Dan so Scott is bringing four more stats in me I bring 32 and then Dan's one will get us to 69 so it is like like the Danometer you know it is mathematical. There's a real reason for doing it yeah for sure those those are some fire stats just like right off the bat like hot hot stuff to take in there like the neighbors thing I've got him like why do you were 24 just like I'm going to wait and see and then I'll push him up where I think he needs to go saying that you would take him as high as around one is really interesting that something I've thought about. This off season is like where would he go if he was just fine and of course we don't know that he will be we don't know where he'll be at all but the late season schedule is really really nice and so that upside is there whatever you think he would be and in this case he said maybe right after J. S. Inter before Jason somewhere that range. There's the upside that you get that at some point this year if Dart is able to make it through the year healthy and the line plays well and neighbors is good at the end of the year like you see here this is over the past two seasons the only receivers who have averaged more points for game are J. S. and Sun God. Puka and Jamar J's and then I wanted to speak towards your first stat here. J. S. and his or Jamar is barely averaged more points were game the Puka over the past two seasons with a massive discrepancy in the routes run. So a lot of these games on a per game based a lot of these games Puka's been banged up or whatever. He has a 61% route rate over the past two years compared to 95% for for Jamar 41 routes per game for Jamar compared to 27 for Puka. I really I think it's fair like I do have Jamar higher than him I just did an episode with Theo Griminger over on roto wire and one of his hot tech is about Jamar chase which is kind of funnics is like yeah of course Jamar is one of the number one. But his thick was Jamar could just absolutely like fantasy football on fire this year I think Puka's there to I think this year were so ridiculously stacked with top and talent like I think CD lamb most years I've got some stats and will get to is like a top three top five pick. And you can get him at the back end of round one I think Jamar chase Puka. I think we'll get to that for sure I know a lot of you have that take and I'm we'll get to that I think Jamar Puka viable one of once most years and you can get them at three four five depending on where J.S. and goes. That's all really interesting stuff did you have anything else then you ready move on to stat number five just along the same lines of Scott with J.S. and he ran so hot last year it seems like that's unlikely to repeat itself but other than that let's move on. Alrighty my first stat is about Bucky Irving I'm really curious to get Scott's take because he like lamb like a lot of the. we're going to discuss today is pretty polarizing. So Bucky Irving is one of five running backstaff average, 20 or more touches per game and play 10 or more games last year. That's pretty exclusive company. And I think that that's relevant because people get a little bit too detailed with the way that we're compartmentalizing the roles in our heads for the Tampa Bay backfield. And so we worry about Bucky. And in reality, like Chase Brown or whoever who plays 70% of the snaps, we think of as like a better role. But like Bucky gets fed. He had a clear passing down back on the team last year. And Sean Tucker was there last year. And he's still got 20 plus touches. And I think if he's anywhere near what we saw as a rookie, he's going to get fed, even if he does lose some specific types of work. The other set I have on Bucky is he's one of three running backs with CMC and Jumir gives being the others to average more yards per out run. The B. John Robinson over the past two seasons with a minimum of 400 routes run. And if you like, take away, it gains a 50 or more yards because you did have that massive play along the side on last year. It's still basically identical 1.45 or B. John 1.44 for Bucky. So to me, that's interesting because we have Zach Robinson coming over to Tampa Bay. The guy who has gotten all this out in space work for B. John as a receiver. And I think that's all we need with Bucky is to get him in space. Like last year, the rushing efficiency came way down. And so people like to crap on Bucky because he looks really bad in rushing metrics. But I think if you get this guy in space, he's one of the best creators in the league. So I'm pretty intrigued by the idea of him being part of the guy who's so good at using motion to get his best players in space. Yeah, Bucky, I think is really interesting. He's someone I've kind of struggled with to have a real authoritative take on. A day in sad I had on him coming out was like, I loved Bucky Irving. I loved his analytics profile up until he bombed the combine. The sad I had was something like if you gave him just like three extra yards after contact and one extra mistackle forced, he would have ranked tied with B. John Robinson in yards after contact per attempt and mistackles force per touch among all power conference running backs over the last two or three years, whatever it was. And so just like hyper efficiency, which you clearly saw his rookie season. And that's second half, leader in fantasy points per snap, fantasy points per touch, balling out. And then he got the volume. He got the volume that last those last four weeks. And then whenever he was healthy last year, he got the volume. The big concern for me is, yeah, well, last offseason, they were saying he's going to be the guy. He's our RB1. This offseason, they're saying we want a three way committee. We want less volume for Bucky because he needs to stay healthy because he's undersized. And we think giving him less volume is going to help maintain the hyper efficiency. And so I think there's a really real scenario. He's stuck at a 50% snap share all year, in which case, it doesn't really have a winning upside. But there's also a very real scenario. He's just a lot better than Sean Tucker. A lot better than Ken. So yeah, like I said, I'm glad I heard your take on this because it's one I haven't felt great about. That's, yeah, that's, I think totally realistic that he's just too good to fail, too good to take off the field. Like maybe he does lose some of the third and long passing snaps. Maybe he does lose some of the one yard to go snaps or whatever. Maybe it's not a perfect role. But if the offense is good and he's good and the offensive line is good, then this is just a crazy discount on a player. There's going at the round one, two turn last year. And we knew that they were moving out from Liam Cohen. And there was like ambiguity about how the offensive performed last year. They had some injuries going into the year. We knew that there was risk. And still we were comfortable taking this guy that early. And basically the same type of compartmentalized role. So I think this is a massive discount. Dan, you're the one to put us on my radar. When you put them on your league winning list, when we talked to Theo a couple of weeks ago, we did the league winning running back show, Dan brought up Irving. And I'm like, you know what? I think we are overthinking this. I think there is a lot of upside, even if we don't know exactly how the role will look. Yeah, for me, I don't need that full workload for him to really actualize the value at the current cost, especially where I think this box office is headed from a fan standpoint. The thing that's got me a little concerned about Bucky has me a little queasy in recent days, Jacob, moved them a bit down my rankings. So that shoulder injury, it's like two years of it. I just, I don't like, I'm thinking shoulder injuries, by the way, are then this is a conversation for another day. They're kind of the new soft tissue hamstring issues, lower body issues injuries for me. Like these players who have these shoulder injuries, really you see their success rate and all their efficiency stats dips so much because they can't really play with the physical style they want to. Hopefully he's fine. We don't really know. There were some weird reports from bowls earlier this off season. I just want to wait and see with Bucky where he's at. Totally fair. I mean, not a sure thing by any means, but that's why he's going where he goes and drops. I think it's done in the risk. And the workload. Potentially. Yep. Yeah. Are you high on the bucks? Offense? Like, how do you feel about Zach Robinson? Scott, I know that Ryan Heath really liked what he dug into and he did all of his play calling research. Do you have any thoughts on the bucks offense? Yeah, I was actually talking to Ryan Pagnetti about this. By a lot of the stuff, it looks like Zach Robinson's an idiot where he just like tipping his play calling hand. But I think I think we know this guy is sharp. And I think really what that is is he was just like severely kneecapped and limited by the quarterback he had. And couldn't really branch out and do more than that. So I don't know. I think we've seen enough success from Baker and the pass catchers and the running backs when they're healthy. That I don't see this. This is probably a step up from what they had last year, for sure. Yeah, definitely. Yeah. Scott, do you have another step for us before we go to break? Sure. Stats are not endorsements. Sometimes I like to just toss a grenade and see what happens. And so, Stad I have is Jonathan Brooks has had more than 30 carries in the season just once since leaving high school, which was five years ago. More than what? More than 30 carries. Wow. I'm trying to just five because yeah, because he played behind P. John. He was the backup then he had a year and then he got hurt. That's crazy. Yeah. That's fair. No idea what we're getting with Brooks. I think part of the reason to be intrigued by Carolina's back field is because we've seen Dave Canalis like give true workhorse workloads to these guys, but it's like Ken Brooks even handle that. Like who knows at this point? Physically, he seems like he's built for it. Everything that we hear out of the music is extremely positive. But of course, it's that time of year. So I think that's fair. Are you just fading Brooks? Are you drafting true Baha'ubert or is this literally just a grenade to be provocative? I mean, I like Brooks, but you have to understand the risk of your word, but I feel like I do and I like Brooks. I cost. Alrighty. Let's take our first break. And when we get back, I've got an Ashen Jindy step for you. OK, so you probably think the Ashen Jindy step is going to be about yards before contact or bad blocking or whatever. What I have, I think this is really cool. Is Ashen Jindy gained 10 or more yards? Is it really specific? 10 or more yards after contact on eight separate receptions as a rookie. So you had eight different catches where he then met contact and gained 10 additional yards after that. That put him ahead of rookie season Jammar Chase and Sequan Barclay for the most of any player under the age of 22 during the time that I have that data available, which stays back to 2015. So I'm talking about really explosive receiving ability as a rookie for a guy who used to play a receiver. We know it was really good in space. He kind of reminds me of Bucky Irving a little bit, where it's like, get the guy in space and it's awesome. But last year did we see that almost never. Another staff that I think is interesting is he gained almost no explosive plays last year. He was running back 32 with nine explosive touches. So gains of 15 or more yards, only 2.8% of his touches resulted in 15 or more yards, which is running back 50 out of 54 qualifiers. So where were the explosive plays for this guy who did this all the time in college? They were in his receiving profile. We saw them there, but his rushing was just awful. He was just always just blanketed as soon as he got the ball. And now we've got the different play color, right? So it's kind of like Bucky my mind where it's like, what can we do here to get this guy in space and how could it look way, way different than last year? Because I did this bell cow running back episode. And it's like 45% of the touches dashed in Gen T last year, only CMC and Jonathan Taylor were higher in healthy games. 52% of the red zone touches, 50% of the inside, the 10 touches. This is like legitimate run the entire offense through me, bell cow running back stuff in terms of volume. They added almost nothing to the offense. So I think he's going to see that type of volume again. All we really need is the explosive plays. If the office is even a little bit better, and he's able to get some explosive plays where that's through the center leading the way, whether that's there could be a scheming it or whatever, or just getting him out in space as a receiver. I think things could look a lot better from an efficiency standpoint for Gen T this year. All right, let's-- I'm really curious where you guys are at on Ashton Gen T, because he-- to me, like, I've just got this conundrum with him and Bijon Robinson. And it's Sequan Barkley. I've been thinking about where-- I heard Josh Norris say, why is Sequan even ranked behind Gen T? It's like the exact same proposition for how they are going to get better this year, which is that last year's crappy offensive line players. going to be better and we've actually seen Seikwang be good and we haven't really seen that from Jinti yet and the office is probably going to be better. As I think about Jinti and Bijon is like, "These guys, and I guess H&N you could throw in there, the offices are really nervous about. So I'm curious if he's around one pick to you guys." I think in theory, on paper, if he's getting the Jonathan Taylor role, it could be just like that where JT was worth the last year for the most part. But I just, I don't know, I wanted to throw that stuff in the JT. The JT compares and it's like their offense took off the Colts and it was much better than expected. I guess that's possible with Vegas. I just don't foresee that. So it does feel a little trappy from that standpoint, but on the flip side, it almost feels like a floor pick if that makes sense because I don't really foresee him finishing too much further behind where he's being drafted right now. Based on how he scored last year, I think it was ultimately like the RB 13 at the end of the season. So that's not points for game. Obviously, that was worse with Jenty played a lot. I need to get hurt, but either way, I kind of feel like it's more of a floor pick right now. I haven't been too enthusiastic about Jenty. All right. Well, how about I give you DANG stat number eight, and it'll be an action GT stat. We'll see if that clarifies anything for anyone. But so last year, he had 266 carries and 55 receptions. That's something that's only ever been done 79 times in NFL history on that list of 79 running back seasons. Jenty is the only one to have under 15 fantasy points per game. So it was like all time outlierishly bad relative to the volume. And so what could be the catalyst behind that? Well, yeah, Las Vegas had an awful offensive line last year. Their O-line gave their running backs over 1.9 yards before contact per attempt in just one game all year. In that game, Ashton Jenty scored 37.5 fantasy points. Awesome. They did it in just one game. The Rams did that in 15 of 17 games. And so is there a cause for optimism? I'm going to have to steal a stat from our guy, Jared Smala, who dug into the fantasy points data over the last, when Kubiak joined the Saints, he went from 1.35 yards before contact per attempt to 1.80. When he joined the Seahawks, he went from 1.34 to 1.83. That's like bottom three to slightly above average. That's a colossal jump. And when you talk to the X's and those guys, that's one thing they really say. They say about the play callers is the great ones, what separates them from everyone else. Is their ability to get the most out of their offensive line or to get a sub-media-oker offensive line producing at a above average level? And so, yeah, I don't know. Make of that what you will. Does that change your opinion on Jenty? Are you more excited to draft him? You tell me. I think that's really good stuff. I've had a really hard time sorting out that back end of round one, but I've kind of stayed stubborn with Jenty being pretty high. I just got to think things could be so much better this year. And he's a really unique workhorse type of back. And of course, I've just got so much faith in, including Kubiak being able to stabilize things there. Let's talk about a Mari and Hampton. That's my next stat, thanks to that number nine. A Mari and Hampton, we've got a video out here on Beyond the Box score. You can check out. It's really simple. I think that for some reason goes a little bit overlooked that like where Mike McDaniel is going to help the most or has helped the most, I think is the running back position. So this is the percentage of total non quarterback fantasy points in PPR that have come from the running back position in each of the past three seasons. McDaniel led offens as a finished third, fifth and first in terms of percentage points that came at running back. So I think that he helps Justin Herbert, Lad McConkey, QJ, all those guys are valid picks. But I do think ultimately like the brand and butter here is the run game, right? And I think there's a lot of reasons to be really excited about Hampton in this spot. Are you taking Gentier Hampton if you are forced to take one? Scott. Oh, GT for sure. For sure. I think they're pretty similar, Dan. Do you have a preference on those two? Oh, it's Hampton for me. I put myself in a tough position last year by having the flag plan show come out and be George Pickens and James Hook. I'm almost definitely not going to hit like that again. I do think that Hampton will be one of my two flag plans this year, mostly. I love that. I have them. Egregiously high in my rankings because of what you said, it's just a combination of that. It's a combination of how he fits that scheme. I think people think of him as a different runner than he actually is and was at UNC. Like he's going to eat on those outside zone runs. He's going to eat on anything scheme to the outside. And I know that Mike McDaniel does that better than anyone else. I guess the issues and I understand them are related to like keeping Mitchell being on the roster and even by doubt the sum. And maybe some people just don't think Hampton is that good, which is fair based on his rookie season. But I think in year two, it slows down for him a little bit. He sees it better in McDaniel scheme. And they're just going to be in my mind way out projecting what Vegas projects them for as an offense. I just think it's a, just to me, it's like, yeah, they want to play slow with our buy. I get that. But on a possession by possession basis, I think they're going to score more touchdowns than almost any offense and football. That's a hot tech, but I love it. I could see it. Scott. Why not? Take it away with dank stat number 10, anything on the chargers? Where do you want to go next? Yeah, bangles. Over the last two years and only counting games, Joe burrow played T Higgins averages 17.5 fantasy points per game. That would have ranked six best last year. He's just a wide receiver 16 by 80. For sure, he just falls in that glob of receivers where it's like, I am like so excited about Rebecca at Buka and La Makanke and this guy and this guy, but it's like, people probably out to score all of them. If you had to guess, like, there's a good chance I'll score at least most of them on a per game basis. And there's plenty of reasons to be really excited about the bangles. One thing I've learned from reading Ryan's play colors article. This is again from Jared Smolish. Shout out Jared. He's killing it. The bangles are expected to go under center a lot and when they have, small sample size, T Higgins has been the player who's benefited the most, which I think makes sense, right? Dan, like in the deep play action dropout game, that's going to be maybe intentionally looking to get T Higgins down the field a little bit more, get him some advantageous spots where maybe the savings are playing up a little bit against the run. So we'll see. I think that there's plenty of reasons to believe that it could be even better and it's been really good on a per game base when he's healthy. Number 11. We're sticking in the AFC north of Gottheld Fanon Jr. stat for you. It's really simple. Fantasy points per route run as a rookie 0.44 for Brock Bauer's 0.42 for Held Fanon Jr. Which is higher than a minor same Browns rookie season on a per route base 0.40 for the Sun God. I just can't say enough about this guy. Like he's so good to me. This is insane to be doing this on last year's Browns team. I think people think of Fanon's season last year as a fluke a little bit, volume driven and stuff like that. But it was insanely efficient because he is a problem. He's an efficiency machine. That's exactly what he is on paper mathematically. You just get in the ball and he just creates extra yards all of the time. And he can get plays down the field too. I didn't expect to be targeting Fanon, but he just falls sometimes in drafts. We just did our pick by pick here at CBS. I think I got him around seven or something like that. Like it was surprisingly late. I was like, yeah, you just fell to me. You just fell in my laps. I'll take him in full PPR. Pretty easy for me. Yeah. So day's at number 12. We're going to stick with Harold Fanon here. So in 2024 is last season in college. It was no exaggeration. The greatest tight end season in college football history. The very least it was the most receiving yards by any FPS tight end all time. Last year he averaged the fourth most fantasy points for game by any tight end. Since the year I was born, which in a day is going to be 36 years ago. And so yeah, historically great prospect, historically great rookie season. A stat that I've referenced several times that Ryan Heath says is my worst stat that I need to stop talking about it so bad is so much is made of Colston, Lovelins, Final Four games of the season, which mind you were the only good games he had all year that Colcomat was healthy. Just those four games where the bears were outlierishly pass heavy, trailed by 80 plus percent in every single one of those games. I like Lovelins, by the way, but he goes round three. Harold Fanon goes round seven. And if you just look at your final four games in comparison or really final 16 quarters, he both left their final game early with an injury. So final 16 games last year. Harold Fanon, 18.2 fantasy points per game, Colston, Lovelin, 20 fantasy points per game. And like I said, I know the offense is much better in Chicago and whatnot. But there is a, I don't know, four round discrepancy in cost. And so, so yeah, that's a stat on Harold Fanon. Health and his man, we're going, we're going to keep it going with Harold Fanon. So that's 11 through 14. And Harold Fanon. But I've got here is yards after catch per receptions, specifically on throws to the middle of the field. This is something I've been really focused on this off season because I think it's really important against the modern NFL defenses right now. And if you look at this, yards after the catch on these middle of the field target. It's basically the best wider receivers in the NFL. And then three rookies. And the only Titan on the list, not even just rookie Titans, like the only Titan on the list is Harold Fennon Jr. Coming in ninth in yards after the catch perception on these middle of the field throws ahead of Jackson Smith and Jigba. I think he's like, he's how you beat modern defense. Like if they're gonna give you that space, get it to him, let him create extra yards. And I think Todd Monkin is a smart dude and we'll understand that. And other stat I've got here, Harold Fennon Jr. tied rookie season for Christian McCaffrey for the most receptions with more than five yards gained after contact for a player under the age of 22. Again, super specific, but 15 of these, pretty insane. Like it's pretty much as running backs at the top of this list with a few like Jamar Chase and Justin Jefferson and stuff like that. And then you see this freaking random one off Titan season. At a certain point, it's like, maybe the guy's insanely good, you know? Maybe that's all there is to be said. - All he ever used to be at college. - Yeah. So maybe we should stop doubting him and trying to find reasons to put him in a box and expect him to fail. - So I do a show, School of Scott. You can check out that podcast on wherever you get your podcast or YouTube with Brett Whitefield who's the best film expert in the game, Bar None. And we record together live every Friday. And he wasn't as high on Fennon as I was coming out. I kind of had to talk to him into it a little bit. And I asked him about this rookie class of Titans because it was so historically great coming out and he all looked great as rookies. And I asked him, "Hey, who impressed you the most?" He said Harold Fennon. And like what he said after that totally blind side in the never expected it, sounds like a hot take? It's not. Like when Brett says this, he's right, inordinately often. And he said, he thinks Harold Fennon Jr. That is the best after the catch tight end in the game. And I'm like, George Kiddell, Tucker Kraft. And he's like, he's at least right there with them. If not already immediately surpassing them. And so yeah, I think you have a rare talent here. The GM talks about this being a cornerstone. Peece, he wanna build around the focal point of the offense. And so yeah, I think that makes a ton of sense for, you know, the bad quarterbacks they have. Yeah, let's scheme up Harold Fennon. Let's get the ball off to him. And it's sort of like Rich Man, John O'Smithroll and let him just feast after the catch. I think that makes a lot of sense. - I mentioned that hot takes episode I did with Theo on RotoWire. I give a hot take on Case Concepts of Yon. And I think those are the two that I wanna target. Where it's like, you can get these guys the ball in the short area and then they're just awesome. You know, and Fennon of course, we already have proof of concept. We already know that he's awesome. Stat number 15 is about Pukinakua. Pukinakua last year, obviously like we know, he's insane. But specifically looking at this yards after the catch stuff, 76 receptions with a gain of multiple yards after initial contact last year shattered the previous high. It was 2019 Christian McCaffrey. The next highest receiver is Michael Thomas and Cooper Cup with 65. Nuku had 76 of these plays. Just an absolute yardage cheat code. Easy stuff, Pukinakua. We could give, we could give 69. So that's about Pukinakua to be honest. Yeah, one more on him. He's led the league in yards for outrun each of the last two years, but over that span, he has basically one full yard per out more than the next closest wide receiver. 0.99 versus him and JSN against Jamar Chase. It's the difference between him and Jamar Chase is the same gap as between Jamar Chase and the wide receiver 114, David Moore in terms of yards for outrun. And so obviously that's a big cheat code is the bangles, you know, kind of lead the league and dropbacks every year and the Rams, they have a really good defense. It's going to get better this year. But yeah, just on a per-route basis, like no one, no one sniffs Pukin. My stat, I wanted to stick with the theme of the historically great tight end class, which was, for those who don't know, Bannon in his final year had the most receiving yards by any FBS tight end ever. Tyler Warren had the most yards from Scrimmage by any power conference tight end ever. Close to Loveland had the best yardage market share season by any tight end in over 30 years. And then O'Ronda Gatson actually, there are bank stats on O'Ronda Gatson I could get into. But so those three guys, and they all had amazingly great rookie season. You brought up as your stat, Harold Fanon's fantasy points per outrun and how that compared to Brock Bowers. Well, up until Daniel Jones fractured his fibula, Tyler Warren was the tight end two behind only training the bride. And he was averaging 2.13 yards per outrun for perspective. Bowers in his rookie season was 2.12 yards per outrun. So Warren actually a little bit better. And for those who don't know, that was like an all-time great rookie season by Bowers. So that's no small feat to be compared to. So is that stat number 17, I think, on Tyler Warren? Is that what I just heard? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Can I get it again? I'm sorry. Up until Daniel Jones fractured his fibula. Warren was the tight end two in fantasy averaging 2.13 yards per outrun. Brock Bowers is a rookie average 2.12 yards per week. Right. Yeah. Now I remember at the beginning of the season, I was sending out some irresponsible tweets because it was like every single week. It's still right on par with Brock Bowers, you know? And yeah, he got really, really steamed up and dinosaur rankings and stuff. OK, I'm going to go with a couple of stats on Jane Reed then here. So we're at-- that was that 17. This is going to be stats 18 and 19 on Jane Reed, who I think is one of the most misprice players in fantasy football this year, to be honest. We're very high in Christian Watson. And as I think about this Packers team, do you remember that Dan, you looked at the Brandon Thorough's Office of Line rankings. I think they were like 26. They're 28. They're something like that. The Packers. It's an offensive line that's actually lost a few of their starters over the years and is going probably backward right now. Yeah. And those rankings were made with past protection skewed towards the importance of past protection. I think that that could be an issue. And to me, that scares me a little bit with Christian Watson and the downfield targets, especially with Dobbs and Wicks. Out of there, I think Watson's going to be doing more of that outside stuff. Like if you look at routes run without Romeo Dobbs on the field, Watson's target rate and yards route run all of that actually comes down. So I think he's going to have to feel that that role more. And we might see more and more stuff designed to the short catch and run guys. So if you repeat that, would you just say Watson has been less productive and been targeted less often on a per-route basis with Romeo Dobbs off of the field. I think Romeo Dobbs being out there in that sacrificial exit. I don't see that being the case. I have 2.73 yards for route run last year with Dobbs off the field. I'm not looking at just last year's data. Up in double check, but I'm pretty sure. I don't remember the exact spot. I assume it's during all of their time together. It might have been the past two years. But what I found was that he was slightly less productive and then was less likely to get targeted is average depth of target went up, which I think all lines up with that outside role. I think it's going to be him and Matthew Golden in that role mostly. Watson is still a good pick. I think Watson has a lot of upside. But I think more so, we're just sleeping on Jane Reads potential. So my first thought on Reads is he's wide-sever one in fantasy points for target. He's wide-sever one in passive rating when targeted since entering the NFL. And with all these targets vacated, that's exciting. I don't know exactly what the role is going to be. But I think if he's healthy this year, healthier than it was last year, we're going to see a lot of targets funnel to Jane Reads. My second stat is, Jane Reads has an identical fantasy point per target rate through an initial 40 games of his career to Tyree Kill through Tyree Kill's first 40 games. He's averaged more yards after the catch than Tyree Kill did through his first 40 games on a similar average depth of target. And he has more receptions of 15 or more air yards. So he's getting more downfield looks than Hill. If you look at Jane Reads' deep targets, like 15 plus, 20 plus, 25 plus air yards, he's one of the most efficient players of all time. That's, I think, has a lot to do with the scheming in Green Bay. I think that is a lot to do with Matt LeFour for sure. But I also do think that Jane Reads is a lot more than-- you might imagine him to be. I don't think he's just a slot guy. I remember Jayges Ackerees and his prospect profiling really liked Jane Reads. I know Matt Harmon really likes Jane Reads. I think there's a lot of smart people who like watch football or just dig into the data. And I'm like, this guy could be something really, really good. And that's all we've ever seen him be when he's been given opportunities is really, really good. And so I think I don't really know why he's forgotten about and drafts this year. I think he's one of the most misprice players. Yeah, it's going to be interesting to track that whole Green Bay wide receiver room, because Watson is finally going so far out ahead of any of the receivers. And we haven't seen none in the past. But you make a good case for Jayden Reed. And he's somebody who definitely has me intrigued as well. And you know I'm a Matthew Golden guy. I'm going to be that guy till I die. So we'll see where that goes this year, because you can get him for basically three at this point. Do you have a start number 24, Scott Barrett? Do you have a Christian Watson stat? You want to give us? That's a good-- I kind of calm to Jane Reads to Josh Downs before the show started. Over the last two seasons, Josh Downs ranks 12th in targets per route run. And that jumps to 0.31 with Michael Pittman off the field, which would rank top three. And Josh Downs, we know, is going to be playing in 12 personnel. We can't say that about Jayden Reed. So yeah, Josh Downs stat. We always love Josh Downs stats here. I'm going to have a whole video dedicated to you. it to Josh Downs high here pretty soon on the channel. So be on the lookout for that. All right, one more step before we get to break. I want to talk about Rishi Rice, Kansas City Chiefs, I think things could be a lot different this year. So thanks, that number 21 is about Rice. Among White receivers who have scored 400 or more PPR points of the past three seasons, Rice has 427, which is really low. He really is a lot more theory than actual production at this point. On average, 65% of their PPR points came on targets of more than five air yards. So if you're playing receiver, normally the bulk of your points come down the field. That's how playing White receiver works. Rishi Rice's rate is 37%. So 63% of his PPR points have come on targets of five or fewer air yards, which is by far the lowest rate. Debo is the next lowest at 43%. I looked at Chris Godwin and Puka Nukuoka because they get a lot of scheme stuff. It was 53% for Puka, 51% for Godwin. Over the past three seasons, Rice's rate is 37%. So truly, the scammyest role in all of football. Over the past three seasons, he's also White receiver three and PPR points per game in the red zone, behind only a Monterey St. Brown and Devonta Adams on a per game basis. I just think it's really important to pose the question, what happens if his role changes with Kenneth Walker added? The Chiefs are 29th and 30th. The percentage of PPR points scored at the running back position. If you look at like non-coreback PPR points, where have they come from? They're 29th and 30th at the running back position in the past two seasons. We've seen in the past that be much, much higher in Andrew Reads offense and Eric B. Enemy's offense. I'm really curious with Kenneth Walker added, which is like the only thing they've done to change the offense, and the offense has clearly been a problem. That's the only thing they did this off season was Kenneth Walker is gonna fix it. Does that mean less rice? And if so, then what is rice for fantasy? If he loses the short stuff, you know? - Yeah, well, this is exactly the stat I had for him. To build up the bull case, a little bit better is if you look at his last 17 full games, or 17 games he played at least five snaps, which is nothing. He ever just 9.6 targets per game, 81 yards per game, both wrecking top six, and 19.2 fantasy points per game to reg top five. Insane consistency over the span 17 fantasy points be hit that over 70% of the time. And yeah, that's insanely good. But like you said, all of that is coming in this like manufactured role, this screen heavy role. And so there's some fragility here. It's not just Kenneth Walker because yeah, Rishi Rice was basically the run game. He was an extension of the run game, throwing him screens instead of handing it off. It's Matt Niggie's gone, Eric B. and he's the new OCD. He's like, yeah, let's get rid of this screen bullshit and throw bombs to Taikwan Thornton. Or it's even like, hey, we're sick of this guy's bullshit. Like he was just in prison two weeks ago. We can't trust him. Xavier, were these finally healthy? We like this rookie Taikwan Thornton's a dog. And so there's just multiple outs where, yeah, if you can really take the rug out from under him, if just any one of those things goes awry, but conversely, if you're projecting out targets, it's kind of, unless you think a 36 year old Travis Kelsey is gonna finish top three at the position, it's kind of hard to really project that out. So yeah, I don't know, he's an interesting one. - We're just judging him so high. Like if everything goes well, he doesn't get to spend it or anything, the target distribution doesn't change. The offense rebounds in is pretty good. Then he's a win, right? Maybe even a kind of big win. Maybe he's like, why does he prefer five or something? And that's great. And you do drafted him in round two or three, that's great. But like, you're drafting the round two or three. Like, it's so risky. And there's so many freaking great players around him that you're passing on. - My biggest concern with Rice is just the Dutch down equity. I feel like the biggest change with Walker coming in there is there's going to be more red zone scoring for the running back. Whether that be just passes to Walker or more likely runs and some outside the 10 and 20, which we haven't really seen for any chiefs running back in a long time. Really, Pacheco's rookie seasons the last time we saw any of that. That's my concern there. You mentioned the thanks that with T Higgins earlier. Well, I think I heard a stat from FFT the other day. Higgins is scored like a touchdown and like 23 of his last 27 games or something like that. I feel like can be a little bit more repeatable in my mind than what Rice put out there. Last year which I think was a little bit touchdown fueled more so than this season before. We're going to take a break here. We're going to get back into more dank stats. - You think you understand how this business works but you don't? - I now know why money was so stress. - What's your plan here? - Land man, new season now streaming. Only on Paramount Plus. - Danks that number 23 is about Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers. Mark Andrews is fourth in Red Zone touchdowns over the past two seasons behind only a Monara St. Brown, Devont Adams and Jamar Chis. I think that's kind of absurd. (laughing) I feel like that's really something that's been forced. And if you look at his production on Red Zone targets, you would probably know why it's been forced. It's because he's been really freaking good, dude. Across the five seasons before last year, he had 10, 12, 10, 10, 13 perceptions in the Red Zone and averaged like seven touchdowns in the Red Zone alone. And his lowest catch rate on those seasons was 59%. The 23 and 24 seasons, he had a 71%, 87% catch rate in the Red Zone. So feeding Mark Andrews has been good. Last year, 42% catch rate in the Red Zone. The lowest of his career, other than his rookie season, he only has three Red Zone touchdowns. To me, it's like, all right, it's enough with the Mark Andrews stuff. Do we really need to, and often say that as Lamar Jackson and Derek Henry and Zay flowers, we really need to feature Mark Andrews at a league high rate in the Red Zone. That doesn't make a lot of sense to me. New play collar, so it could be different. I'm curious, Scott, if you're buying the Zay flowers, could score more touchdowns be the series Chris Alavein narrative? - Yeah, maybe. I'd say we know touchdowns regress to the mean. But it's also like, he's been below wide receiver 50 and XTD per game for, I don't know how many years in a row now, he's 5.8, 180 pounds. So it really wouldn't shock me if he's just kind of one of those guys where it stays low. Zay flowers, I've really kind of struggled with. So maybe you have a better take here, but it's like, I just kept expecting, oh, they're gonna sign, they're gonna sign Stefan Diggs, right? And it's like, no, they're really content to just, it's sign sterling shepherd and like DeAndre Hopkins and just absolute bums. And they're saying, no, we wanna just pepper Zay flowers with targets. So maybe you're right here, maybe it's just, hey, this is a guy who's probably gonna finish top five in target share and is due for some touchdown variance. - Heath Cummings and I did 20 minutes on Zay flowers. Go check that video out if you have not. Really simply, we looked at, so Matt Harmon believes that he can win in the short area. Like his work against press coverage in the short area has just continued to improve and he believes that he can win off the line in a way where he gets more of these targets in the short area. I looked at AB and Tony Brown and Tyler Lockett as two examples of smaller receivers. There's other ones like Wes Wilker, but I think he's a different type of player. But small receivers who play on the outside and in the slot and didn't get red zone targets early in their career. In fact, flowers has had a higher team share of red zone targets than those two. And then all of a sudden you get five straight years of eight or more touchdowns with Tyler Lockett. Obviously we know what happens with Antonio Brown, but it took until year four or five for them to get their red zone target share number up and it's like, oh wait, this guy's just really freaking good. He's not just a little gadgety guy. He's just really good all over the place. He's a winner. Let's get him the ball. That's the bulk ace, but of course, that's just an outlier case. Like is he Antonio Brown, is he even Tyler Lockett? I don't know, those guys are insanely good. Antonio Brown got very upset people compared to flowers too, and I don't blame him. As he should be upset, like Tony O'Brien had the best speed. One of one off the line of scrimmage and that's why he was able to win anywhere, including the red zone. I'm skeptical of flowers. I loved them last year, Bo Jacob and I, we drafted a lot. We told everyone listening to draft a lot, but the price was so much different than it was this year. He's been steamed up. He was going really cheap. I was getting him in auctions at like eight to 12 bucks last year and $200 auctions. This year you're probably playing in the mid 20s for flowers without that much changing for me to get more excited about him. I still think a lot of those red zone touchdowns are going to go to Henry. Some are going to go to Lamar on the ground. So it's not even like we're talking about like a Higgins, bangles type offense, where there's just all these opportunities or like atoms and Evans, where there's all these opportunities. I just don't see it with flowers. And I actually really like Mark Andrews for fantasy, which is gross. I know it sounds gross, but that thanks. That just got me even more excited. Because I'm not as big a believer in, I think we overrate how much touchdowns of a grass to me personally. That's how I've always felt about fantasy. I think we underrate touchdowns as a big, just as a group of analysts like across the board. But that's just how I feel. It's why I got atoms last year. And so I'm going to be higher on guys like Andrews and Evans and Adams. Scott, I'll give a step then. I'll give an Andrews one, which is really also as a flowers one. The bull case argument from Mark Andrews is, you know, he finished tight end. six or better, six straight seasons, and then last two years, you know, Routshare plummeted, splitting the field with Isaiah likely and Charlie Colour. But he ranks behind only George Kittle and fantasy points for Routrun the last three years, and now he's in line for a major Routshare jump. That's the that's the bull case. The bear case, which which mind you is also a bull case for Zay flowers, is last year was his first ever season with the yards per Routrun below 2.0. Yeah. There's all the way down at 1.33, tight on 36 levels. So there's a very real chance he's washed. If you look at ass, he was he was top three in tight and ass in three straight seasons. Just tell everybody what that means for those. Sorry, average separation score, top three, and then last year all the way down to tight on 15. So wasn't just the Margax and injury. It really did kind of look like he took a step back. And that's definitely impossible with him, which is why he's surprised where he's at. Alrighty, stat number 25 is about George Kittle and Mike Evans. And it's just kind of along the same lines here. I'm really curious to get Scott's take on Evan's. I think he's a really polarizing player. So Kittle is tied with Andrews with 14 reds out touchdowns over the past two seasons, even though he's played eight fewer games. Evans is wider, see for three in red zone touchdowns per great per game across the past two seasons. So I'm curious where you're at with Evans, because I think the upside proposition is really clear. We could get a lot of red zone touchdowns and a lot of deep targets, deep touchdowns as well. I've got a Y to say we're 20, but like we had Dave Richard on and I think he had him at like near Y to say we're 30 Dan, like a lot of people are out on Evans. Where are you at Scott? So I don't have a stat. Well, I do have a stat, which I'll get to, but I have a quote and I'm paraphrasing it slightly. This is I think Ryan Heath mailed Mike Evans perfect with his quotes on quoting Ryan Heath here. Whatever happens with Mike Evans this year, it's going to feel incredibly obvious in hindsight. Either he scores a million touchdowns for Kyle Shanahan or his hamstring falls off the bone like Texas barbecue because he's 33 years old, practicing next to a haunted 5G Chernobyl super E and F electrical substation. And I think that's perfect. I mean like, is this not the best wide receiver Kyle Shanahan has had since Julio Jones had 2000 yards? This is a guy who's still got it. He leads all wide receivers and asks over the last two years of the last three years. And you know, could be their Devonte Adams scoring a shit ton of touchdowns and maybe even a little bit more than that. So yeah, I mean, I think he's super interesting. Maybe my George Kiddlestat too would be when I tweet out every year, which is just like every year he leads the position in yards for route run. And then I detail all the injuries he played through during that time where it's like every single year, you know, tight and one by yards for route run. And then he's like, he had a broken bone in his foot, he had a torn labor, he had a torn pectoral and he only missed a game and a half. I say he's like if Mr. Glass and Wolverine and the juggernaut were all the same superhero, that's he's always hurt, but he always plays and he's unsappable when he plays. He comes back sooner than most. I have no idea who Mr. Glass is. I've been catching up on all the Marvel movies because like, I of course, I watched them in theaters, but then I got kind of bored of it. And my friend who's a massive nerd like much bigger than even Denshanir is like, dude, you got to get back in it because some of the most recent stuff is really good and you've missed a bunch of really old good movies. And last night dude, I watched Blade like the original. Oh, please also. Hell yeah. Oh my gosh. That movie was so cool. I was like, yeah, I happened missing out. Thank you. Wesley Snipes had some white men can jump, demolition man. Snipes have some had some banger's back in the day. Some of us aren't 36, you know. Oh, I guess. All right. Thanks that number 28 is kind of a Mike Evans that too. It's also Brock Purdy's that. And so it is that Mike Evans and kind of a bigger mafields that my heavens had a 46% catchable target rate on targets of 15 or more air yards last year, which is the fifth lowest among qualified receivers. Of course, shout out to fantasy points data for that. Only Geno Smith had a worst catchable ball rate than bigger mafield on throws a 15 or more air yards last year. I think a lot of that to do with injuries, offensive line, everything else. Brock Purdy needs no excuses. Here I can stop five in each of the past three seasons and catchable ball rate on throws a 15 or more air yards. That's really, really impressive to do that year over year over year. I'm feeling pretty good about the Mike Evans stuff, you know. And I'm feeling pretty good about Brock Purdy who's never really had a receiver like this. I mean, I you because the is the closest thing, you know. I think Evans fits this off and so well. I'm really excited about it. All right. Well, if you have a Purdy Baker stat, I'm going to give you some Purdy Baker stats. I've been like toying with this take that like from a fantasy perspective. Joe Burrow just feels like fancy Baker mafields or like expensive Brock Purdy to me. By the way, you mentioned Baker mafields injuries. This is a stat. He was on the practice report listed with an injury 11 times last year. It was foot toe biceps, knee, oblique, illness, shoulder left and shoulder right injuries 11 times last year. But even with that in mind, let's compare him to Joe Burrow, right? Last year, Joe Burrow averaged just 0.6 more fantasy points per game than Baker mafield. In 2024, Joe Burrow averaged just 0.2 fantasy points per game more than Baker mafield. In 2023, the average 1.5 fewer fantasy points per game than Baker mafield. And then the Brock Purdy stat I have is yeah, fantasy points were major Brock Purdy treaters. Over the last three seasons, Brock Purdy averages more fantasy points per game than Joe Burrow or Patrick Mahomes. And in contrasting them in the other various efficiency metrics, he also beats them in adjusted net yards per attempt in pass or rating, an EPA per dropback, an EPA per play, in completion percentage over expectation. Shout out to Brock Purdy at least by the numbers. He's like, if you ever watch a quarterback rankings episode with like the nerds, they kind of just go in order of EPA per dropback over the last two or three years, except except for Purdy, they just like slide Purdy to like 18th when actually he leads all court, this is a real stat. He leads all quarterbacks in EPA per dropback over the last three seasons. Wow. All right, yeah, that's all really interesting. I've got Burrow lower than most at QB 7 and Purdy at QB 10. I see your point. I've got, I'm really excited about Baker this year too. Yeah, and by the way, don't forget with all these stats, it's like they had McCaffrey and Kittle and their their star left tackle on the field and at the same time, and only like 9% of those points. And Debo was never healthy and IUQ was a head case and never healthy and Ricky Pierce always never healthy. And still you see those numbers. I think the the only thing with Burrow is that the per opportunity metrics are not ever going to look quite as good as Cincinnati. It's kind of the same where Jamar chase where it's like, shouldn't you be one is like he's wide to serve 10 in yards about run or whatever, but it's like they're just so many damn plays that it gets out of control. And that's where I mean, everybody knows like on a purge basis like how good Burrow's been. And so that's why I do have him ahead of Hertz, Lawrence, Purdy is because I think he could just blow it out of the water and have one of these MVP type of seasons. My thanks that number 31 is about Ben Johnson. My guy, we pull this up real quick. The question I think a lot of people have about Chicago is are there too many mouths to feed. I don't really see it that way. So Ben Johnson and Kyle Shannon are the only two offensive minds to engineer a top 10 fantasy offense in each of the past four seasons. So looking at fantasy points scored across the whole team. He's crushing the league in terms of total points, not including the quarterbacks. I like to look at it that way. Just like how many points are the past catchers and the running back scoring across past three seasons. It's been Johnson and then everybody else. He's just so good at this man. And then as I look at like the Lions teams and thinking about like other too many mouths to feed for the passing game specifically. The Lions were ninth, seventh and fourth in wide history fantasy points during the Johnson era. So they were topped in the whole time every year. Got better each year. There were 23rd, 28th and 29th in situation neutral dropback rate. So when the scores within seven points, how often were they dropping back to pass? They were near the very bottom of the league. Last year's Bears team ranked 20th. And that's that. And their percentage was higher than any of those Detroit seasons. So I don't know if we can expect them to be as good. Caleb Williams compared to Jared Goff at facilitating the necessary volume for these guys to be fantasy superstars or whatever. But Caleb Williams is extremely talented and we did see them drop back at a higher rate than any of those Lions teams which were able to reduce multiple good pass catchers even with a minor same brown getting freaking 30% of the targets. And so I do think that there's a chance that there are there's a real opportunity for two or even three of these Bears pass catchers to matter. And if any of them get hurt like we saw last year, then the remaining two can go absolutely ham, right? Like we saw it with love and I get the point about last year being a little bit fluke at the end of the year where it's like love and it's getting freaking 14 targets per game because they're passing so often they're playing for behind all the time. But I also don't think the Bears' defense is that good. I do, you know, like I think it'll be pretty bad again. So they could be forced into some of those game scripts. It's going to be interesting when I think the Bears, for me at least, it's like they have all the talent in the world, everything set up. I even like Caleb Williams taking a most likely taking a step from a post-nat processing standpoint and needs to take this year just being in that system year too. But at the same time, I'm like, they're still going to run the ball and still going to run the hell of the football. I'm just trying to find, like, figure out where, how to fit everybody into that piece, like fit every piece of that puzzle in there with the Bears and still confusing me. Does it move the needle at all, like comparing them to those Lions teams in terms of like, they be that Lions team? Like I thought the Lions produced so many good pass catchers and they were really run heavy. They had two awesome running backs. Their whole offense was centered around the run. And then last year's Bears team was not as run heavy as them in the first year. And it's like, couldn't they go even more pass heavy because they have all these awesome young pass catchers. He came in and immediately drafted two pass catchers. It's definitely, it seems definitely possible where you have that Scott. I got distracted. I was trying to come up with my next tank staff. That's okay. That's okay. Just looking at the fact that comparing the Lions and Bears' offences, the Lions were extremely run heavy under Ben Johnson more so than the Bears. And yet they still produced a bunch of great pass catchers. And I'm just like thinking about the Bears. Why couldn't they continue to be even more pass heavy? That's what Ben Johnson has done is invest in the passing game. I know that they lean on the ground game. That's obviously really important to Ben Johnson. But couldn't they be similar to those Dieter at Lions in terms of pass production? Yeah, I don't know. That's a really good question. I will say we have the best projections guy in the industry. We led the industry in DFS projections accuracy last year. So shout out to Chris Weck for that. He's struggled to get the Bears up to where I want them in my rankings. And he just says, the volume isn't there. And that was a big thing with my criticism of the devil's advocate argument against Colston Loveland is like those four games he went off that everyone's pointing to where Luther Burton went off as well. The Bears were trailing 90% of the time in each of those games. And in those situations, every fantasy player smashes. That's where O'Rourke Gasson scoring 23 fantasy points per game and Hunter Henry scoring 23. It just like that doesn't happen a lot. And so in more neutral gamescript with Ben Johnson who, yeah, and like, let's not lose sight of the fact that Deandre Swift was on the injury report in like 14 games last year. And so he was never quite fully healthy. And so maybe he's healthy now and they go more run heavy. I don't know. Like that's maybe the trickier component, the easier component is like this team probably finishes top five and scoring, right? And by all the efficiency metrics, because the offensive line is good because Ben Johnson's the goat. But I don't know. Yeah, that really just, that's a great question. Do you have a stat number 32 that might have something to do with Luther Burton? Because I feel like I saw online one time that you call Luther Burton fancy Parker Washington. Am I remembering this right? So I really like Luther Burton. I also really, really like Parker Washington. I just said they're very similar, but you're getting at the time. It was like a four round discount. But I really like both of them. Obviously, the big Luther Burton stat is, he just had the second best yards for route run since behind only the OBJ rookie season. It's like a little misleading just because, you know, if you count the postseason, he falls if you exclude, you know, trick plays. He falls to like 2.4 yards for a run. Like it's still a great time. Great, absolutely. But no, I'd rather save my Washington and Luther Burton stats. I'll give you a Nico Collins one. Let me give some Luther stats real quick. Luther Burton led the team in gains of 20 or more yards last year. He also led the team in receiving yards on throws that came 20 or more yards down the field, which is insane because he had seven of those targets. And DJ Moore had 23 of those targets. And Roman Moudoon's had 22 of those targets. But they produced more receiving yards on those downflow targets than they did. He also was one of just seven receivers who had, according to fantasy points, status charting a route win rate of 30% or higher against man coverage. So all of these to me seem, also he averaged more yards for a run outside. Then he did in the slot. All these to me signal Jason type of player where like he can win on the outside. He's not a slot guy. He can beat man coverage. He can win down the field. We need to get more of those looks. Also the Yacht showed up right away. He was like just below Rashi Rice and Kalyusha Kier third in the NFL in yards after the catch perception. Like it's not just like, oh, yards for a run nerds like watch the film. He's awesome. And all the stuff that you see on film is born out in the data. He's good down the field. He's good with the ball in his hands. He's just really good and like he gets to play with Ben Johnson. I feel like we might be overthinking this. This is probably just going to be awesome. Yeah, it definitely could be. I think that's, it goes along lines of can they reach that level? I think of where you were talking about with the Lions pass game. And there are some factors in that that give me some pause personally, but I could see the upside case for sure. Yeah, Nico Collins. So excluding just one play against busted coverage, Nico Collins has only one 100 yard game with CJ Stroud since Donald Trump won the election. Oh gosh. Wow. He's I have no idea what to do in Nico man. Because I mean, like that's his stat, but like another stat is what? He's top three in yards for a run each of the last three years. Yeah. Yeah. He's just one of the best players at the Y2 position. Like he's so good, man. But at the same time, it's probably run first offense with question, record of a play with question, offensive line play with question, McCouching and we now have more target competition than there's really ever been. And he was sent during Nico's era there. And I think they want to run the ball more than they have. Like they actually could have something where they try to get touches for Dave Montgomery. I'm curious where you're at, Dan. Like you and I have been bullish on Nico the whole time. But at this point, he's just everybody knows how good he is. So it's not like you're getting any sort of discount anymore, you know? Everyone seems to be out on Nico this year. Last year, we had him all the way up at six. If I remember Jacob, I remember finally getting to a ranks there. Maybe I did. I had him all the way up as my sixth overall player, which was a big miss. Wow. Obviously. Yeah. It was either six or seven. I can't remember it. It was a big miss obviously. And now I feel like you get to discount this year because of all the things you mentioned, but also because he played hurt last year. I think that played a big role in influence from where he's at here. But to me, he's still one of the only guys who can play X and this checks out by the way with Matt Harman's charting and can win at all three levels from the exposition. So I still see a scenario where Houston's offensive line gets a little bit better. They do develop that run game that you're talking about with Montgomery, but it leads to more play action shots and define looks for Nico as that isolated X because that's essentially what they want to do. They want to become that San Francisco type team where they can run, they can get under center, run a lot of, run a ball a lot and then run those play action shots on those intermediate in breakers, intermediate and deep in breakers. And so I could still see a scenario where he becomes like somewhat like what IUQ was for the for the 49ers a couple years ago, but a much better player at that and scoring more touchdowns and having more long plays. In which case, I think he can get easily wide receiver one value. I think I'll probably end up in on Nico Collins. I'll have him higher than players like Pickens and London just looking at those rankings. Yeah, I have him behind AJ Brown, Justin Jefferson, George Pickens and Drake London. I get it with Nico. He's awesome and he of course can just be way too low on Drake London. Rose. I'm terrified of Atlanta's offense. I think it might just be one of the worst offenses in the league for a number of different reasons. And I'm also. Yeah, he's on. I haven't settled, but I think if you want to take an any sort of PPR format, if you want to take either of those top two receivers ahead of B. John, I'm fine with that. Less worried about B. John than I am about London just because Tua has that stat or like he's targeted running backs more than a quarter back over the last over many years. Tua's like Tua with London doesn't feel good to me at all. Like just watching, thinking back to the tape we watched, taken when we did, we did the foul and golfing a few times for our tape reviews on Beyond the Box score. People kind of underrate what Pennix meant for London. It wasn't just that London is amazing and he is. That Pennix can drive the football. Like he sucks at a lot of things. Pennix, he's really bad under pressure. He locks onto his first read, but he actually has arm talent, real arm talent that I don't think Tua has at this point in his career. So I am very worried about the two of London thing as well. I do think to at least has accuracy and touch to be able to like throw to the middle of the field and get London some yak opportunities. What I'm worried about is the Zach Robinson thing. Zach Robinson is just used so much motion and be able to get London and these canis formations and the slot and all this stuff where it makes it a lot harder for demons just to be able to just focus on him. And I'm worried that this year it's going to be like London. Kevin Sivanski, you want to give him the benefit of that out of course. He's done a great job. It's several stops along the way. But if it's a more traditional offense and London is kind of stuck on the outside being the X receiver because like who else is going to do it on that offense? And so they're just like, well, yeah, he's our X receiver. Of course, he's big. And so he's out there. It's like, I am really nervous about that because then it's a lot easier to just keep that side of the field well off and always have extra defensive attention over there because you don't have to worry about the other receivers at all. It's Johan Dotson. It's a limited as I kees. Maybe it's Zachariah Branch, you know? That scares me. To me, that is all of a sudden like, it's going to be a lot easier. be a lot harder for him to push up into that 28% target share range. So if he has more like a 25, 24% target share in a bad offense, I don't like that, especially at this cost. And I don't know what the upside is relics. I think I have a hard time seeing Atlanta being better than like 23rd or something and scoring this year. And offense that I don't have any concerns about it, San Francisco. I guess everybody could get hurt, but other than that, I feel pretty good about it. So everybody could get hurt, Ricky Pierce saw, of course, hitting the top of people's suspect list there. But man, when the guy's been on the field, he's been so good. So I gave you that route win rate first man coverage stat and reference to Luther Burton earlier 30% for Burton, 32% for Ricky Pierce saw as our thanks that number 34, 32% route win rate against man coverage, according to fantasy point status charting in 2025. Behind only Michael Wilson, Jackson Smith and Jigba and Devonta Adams, the dude shreds. I think having Mike Evans here to threaten defense is deep probably helps him to be able to get more of these over the middle horizontally breaking type of routes. Danks that number 35 is that Ricky Pierce all has average more receiving yards per healthy start. So that's a game where he started and played two thirds of the snaps. Then Christian Watson, he's average 60 for receiving yards per healthy start, 11 of those games over the past two seasons compared to 60 for Watson in 30 healthy games. He's average almost as many fantasy points, 12.8 for Pierce all 13.2 for Watson. And this is his first two years in the league coming out of a gunshot wound to start things out. He's actually been really productive. When he's gotten to play, Danks that number 36 also Pierce all. He had the same number of games with 85 or more receiving yards as Justin Jefferson last year. And he barely played. He even five healthy games. He had more of those games than T Higgins, Zayflowers, Jalen Waddle, Devonta Adams, Ladma Conkey, Devonta Smith. He's been very productive when he's gotten to play. I think he's just a really really underrated player. Scott, I've described him as like just discount Ladma Conkey and Matt Harman made fun of me even said that that was because they're both because they're both white. To me, it's because they move the same way. You watch these guys and they're like insanely agile and quick in and out of their breaks. And so they're paired up now with offensive play designing geniuses. And they both have like the sacrificial X whether that's QJ or Mike Evans to work down the field and let them do all the intermediate stuff off the play action. The play action, priest that motion, all that stuff, boosting their efficiency. I think he's just really overrated or overlooked. And if he stays healthy, he's going to be one of the biggest hits in fantasy. Well, I can pour a little bit of cold water on that 34 minutes ago. Nick Wagner who covers the 49ers, one of the best beats reported that piercels dealing with knee swelling related to the PCL injury suffered last year. And this is all options are being explored. And there is some quote unquote concern. Yeah, our injury expert actually DM me a couple days ago and said he's a 49ers fan. He was watching the highlights from practice and said basically that like Purysel doesn't look right. He just DM me like five minutes ago. It's like trust your gut. I saw that Jeff Mueller, right? So you're referencing? Yeah, he does great work. Psych to defend. Yeah. Do you have a dank stat number 37 for us by any chance? Yeah, and I this is a weaponized stat. This is so last year excluding only the Minnesota Vikings game, Jackson Dart would have led all quarterbacks and fantasy points per start. Yeah, exclude the Vikings game. That's it. Similarly, if you look at all quarterbacks, which is with at least 15 pass attempts and you sort by EPA per dropback, Jackson Dart ranks fifth with the worst offensive line, the worst wide receiving core, not the worst offensive line, but certainly the worst receiving core, bottom seven offensive line. Jackson Dart found his way top five in EPA per dropback. I made the comp to patch up my homes just in terms of the upside, which got me in a lot of trouble. But here's another stat for you is the leaders in EPA per dropbacked out of rhythm throws last year. One patch of my homes, two Jackson Dart. And I heard a rumor that Dan might be the lowest guy in the industry on Jackson Dart, which seems crazy because Jacob, you posted the videos of him just throwing absolute dimes, 35 yards down the field and it bouncing off of various slayton's hands 19 times last year. I don't know. Actually, Dan's videos. Oh, that's even worse. Even worse time to post them all. What's your ranking for him, Dan? It's, it's egregious. No one's going to like to hear it, but we'll, we'll say it anyway. It's QB 17. He's saying he's QB one over Josh Allen is less egregious than ranking him QB 17. I think he 12 consensus as a mcuby a dense awful, awful shame on both the low consensus. I, I want to move him higher. Maybe there. He was he, he, at minus just the Vikings game, he let all quarterbacks ahead of Josh Allen in fantasy points per start. He did it with Wondale Robbins in PPR scam, who sucks. He's getting Malik neighbors back. He has Isaiah likely. He does have Matt Neggie that these are me is. Yeah. Matt Neggie is a major issue for me here. Yeah. Also Matt Neggie, just his history of quarterbacks not running in the red zone is a major issue for me. Shadow right. He doesn't run dart in the red zone, which I don't know if he will or won't at that. I guess he could change his tune on that. He just hasn't during his time. So, so the red zone run rate really low, but also pass rate inside the red zone is like the highest of any court. Oh, hi, hi. Okay. That's a good thing. If dark can actually convert inside the red zone as a passer, which a lot of it's the fake little shovel passes that my home's to do to Kelsey or which count as a passing to the table. Yeah. We can take it. The Giants are efficient enough to do it. I just have a vision for this Giants offense and it involves probably four to five fewer rushing touchdowns or dark, which is not a good thing. And the other thing is I've just been hearing from people at OTAs. Like when Dart breaks the pocket, they blow the whistle. They don't want him scrambling as much this year. And a lot of his fantasy reduction did come down to the scrambling and it came down to the rushing touchdowns. So I didn't hear that. That's big because, you know, reading the direct quotes from Harbots, like, oh, this is, you know, really like even dart himself is like, Hey, I'm not Joe Flacco. You know, this is a part of my game. Right. And then the hard one is the case. But you combine all those things with also the addition of Greg Roman, Patrick, Ricardo Malachi field. I just feel like this team is headed in a direction that doesn't look a lot like it looked last year offensively. While he did upgrade the receivers, obviously getting rid of the guys you mentioned, the Olin should be about the same if not better with the addition of Malino and round one. I just worry about the direction of this offense and what they want to do offensively with Matt Nagy as offensive corner. That's my biggest concern with our I do have to move them up though. This QB 17 thing is a little bit egregious. Like I have him behind guys like Bo Nix should have him ahead of him. I'm not sold. I should have him ahead of Stafford in my home. So I have him behind or go off who I love this year or Prescott or Murray. So then it's like, do I have him above Jalen Hertz and Caleb Williams and Lawrence and party like that. It seems egregious on paper. But I'm not so sure it's as egregious as people think it is. I'm just going to say that. I just drafted Calamari ahead of Dart. Yeah, I know. I freaking love Minnesota schedule. And if we're talking about a single quarterback league, which is what this is, give me the upside of Calamari. I'm nervous that Dart doesn't have as many rushing touchdown opportunities. And so the upside is a little bit then limited to only what he can do in terms of passing touchdowns which I don't expect a ton of these giants offense. I think the second half of the schedule says it really nice, but I don't know if he'll make it there necessarily. It's this is all leaving Maggie, right? No, I don't. This is all conjecture. Of course. I mean, I think there's a really good chance. Maggie's going to get fired mid season or they're just going to let Greg Roman take the reins. That's not good for. To me, I want. I think that's great because look at his track record with hyper mobile quarterbacks. The March Jackson one MVP. Justin Herbert was running more and you know, was looking like an MVP when alt was healthy and you know, even Colin Kaepernick back in the days. And so what I've heard is from my sources is like it's it's not, you know, Greg Roman's heavily involved. He's basically the run game coordinator. And it is because you have Calahan there too another guy who had coaching experience and it's going to be collaborative. I don't know. Maybe it's was mostly wishful thinking though because you know, Matt and Maggie is really that bad. Yeah. This gets over the Vikings is so good. And I think that Kyler at the beginning of the year is either going to be terrible and get benched and then he move on or he's actually going to play well in this offense and this awesome like offensive environment where I think also I think the Vikings defense could be not bad, but not as good as it has been. Could be sneaky leaky in the secondary and they're blitzing all the time and then they get into these shootouts and Kyler starts going nuts for fantasy. I think he's also going to have to run a lot more this year or not have to but will maybe run a lot more this year because he's playing for his you know NFL life at this point. A fact contract. So I just yeah exactly. So I just want to take a shot on that. Whereas like dark. I think I've said this on the podcast. I think he could be in the second half of the season like could be three or something from like week 10 on or whatever. But to me it's like in a single quarterback managed league. you're just trying to get as many points at the beginning of the season as possible. And if it doesn't work out, then you can figure things out along the way is how I approach quarterback. So if I don't land an elite one, I want somebody who I think can put up a lot of points. And if they don't, then I just stream. I just want to have the play. I've got it. I have it all figured out. Week 8, you trade Kyler Murray for Jackson Dart because Matt Niggie's getting fired week nine. And Call of Duty comes out week 10. So perfect. It's perfect. I don't want to have to wait. I don't want to have to draft our, and then he's playing like shit. And you're just like, like, do I, like, is this going to get better? Like, do I have to waste two roster spots to get another quarterback who's playing better than him? Like, I don't want to have to do that. So I, I'm kind of coming around on where Dan's at, but I do still have a bo-nix deck press. I think I'm going to move on, but Nick, I'm not sure about press got, though. And staffer and some of this guy has not had a staffer for me. I just think what staffer did last year is very unlikely to repeat. So I worry about the upside case really for him, but I mean, he's, he's great, of course. That's it. They just have such a good set up their amps for scoring and for being in good position to score. With all that said, I want to give two more awesome stats on Jackson Dart because if anybody wants to draft him, I cannot let him. Yeah. At all. So stat number 39, we don't have to throw out them in a soda game, although I think that's valid because then it was Asinine, where the coaching staff did a dart in that game. But just include that game. Only look at his starts. He's one of five quarterbacks, average 20 or more fantasy points per game as a rookie in the games that he started dating back to I think 2000. Yeah, 2000 to 2025. It's Cam Newton, Justin Herbert, RG3, J and Daniels, Jackson Dart, averaged 20 or more fantasy points per start as a rookie. Thanks that number 40. That's not it. Gonna have to find it. Here we go. I'm so sorry about this. Next down, number 40 is about Jackson Dart's playmaking. I think that there's a case to be made that he's one of the best playmakers in the NFL. And the stat that you get about EPA per drop-back is so absurd because people hate on EPA because it's a team stat. Don't use it as a quarterback stat. He ranked that high in EPA per drop-back on the freaking giants. On this giant scene, that was terrible. Normally, it's like Brock Pertie and those guys at the top of the EPA stuff. Highest supported sack per drop-back rate per the fantasy points data suite. Jackson Dart comes in at 6.3% just below Josh Allen at 6.4% with one of the highest rates. And then what does he actually do on these drop-backs? I've got fantasy points per drop-back on plays where an avoided sack was charted. And you can see Caleb Williams really low because he's avoiding sacks and then he struggles to keep his eyes on the field. So he's just throwing the ball at a bounce or whatever. Cam Ward really low because he doesn't have anybody to throw to him. Jackson Dart averaged almost a full fantasy point per drop-back per plays with an avoided sack. Josh Allen was next at 0.72. I think he legitimately like his ability to keep his eyes down the field and make plays is uncanny. Like it's so so good. The only question I have is like can he play in structure because if he's going to be like Dan is a little bit like if he's going to be asked to just drop-back and pass more and be like a real quarterback and don't get hurt. That's where it could get kind of gross where like all these stats don't matter. No, I think another side I just thought of is like he was in the blue medical 10 in what 45% of his starts last year. I can't let their eyes down. A lot of cool calls to be clear. I think the Giants are going to try to stress that in camp and things like that. I don't think it's actually going to play out that way. I think what Scott said about what Dart said a couple of months ago is just I'm just going to play ball. I think he's just going to play ball and he will scramble a lot. It's more just the red zone rushing that concerns me. I was like the Giants were literally running Brian Davon. This is why I like Cam Ward a little bit. They're running quarterback bash in the red zone. Like it's an insane call for any quarterback. Let alone Dart who's not like a Josh Allen type. I doubt that's going to happen again with Matt Neggie. Well, I mean, so Matt Neggie's bad. But I think this is part of the argument. It's like I thought Brian Davon was bad. I didn't think he was anything special. Look at the Daniel Jones turn around. He went to Shane Sikin. And so what did Jackson Dart in the same exact offense, but the same coach and a worse supporting cast. Scataboo went down. Neighbors went down. And so yeah, again, this is this is just a player. I I'm not a Giants homer. I've been like fading every Giants player for five years. So, but yeah, next stat is it is my turn or your turn, Jacob? I'm going with thanks to that number 41, which is Kiren Williams and Blake Korum. So over the past three seasons, only Jamir Gibbs and Derek Henry have more scrimmage touchdowns at the running back position than Kiren Williams. 44 touchdowns from Scrimmage over the past three years for Kiren. Only Korim Hunt has a lower explosive play rate other running back position over the past three years than Kiren Williams. So what I want to show you is the percentage of red zone touches in the offense account for by Kiren Williams. In 2023, it was 60% of the teams total touches in the red zone. In 2024, it was 61%. Last year was 38%, which a lot of people have said that's a Devonta Adams stat. And it's it's actually not. In 2024, the top two receivers in the offense had 16% of the touches in the red zone. In 2025, that rate was 18%. So did it come up slightly? Yes, like Devonta, Adams had 8% of the red zone touches. That's slightly higher than like Cooper Cup had 5%. But that actually didn't really pull from Kiren that much. It pulled from like Puka. Puka had a slightly lower rate. What's no worthy, what the real changes was Blake Korim's rate rose from 6% to 17%. He actually got a kind of sizable chunk away from Kiren. And then I brought up the explosive plays. I think that's relevant too, because Korim's actually been explosive. It's a small, simple size, so you don't want to overreact to it. But he ranked running back 15 out of 54 qualifiers in the rate of his touches. The resulted in 15 or more yards. Kiren Williams ranked 50th last year. And like I said over the past three years, only Kreme Hunt has a lower rate of explosive plays. That's not what Kiren's therefore, right? Kiren's there to turn out success rate runs. But Korim also has a really high success rate. And he gives you some explosive playability. And he's starting to cut into the red zone work a little bit. And so I do wonder like what we have left with Kiren. It's almost kind of like the rushy rice thing a little bit, where it's like he's had this awesome role that's given him just massive fantasy viability. But like if it gets scaled back at all, then what is he? And what do we really want to draft him in around, even with around three pick? Although that today, because I think you just did draft him around three, at the back end of round three, right? Very back end of round three of our pick by pick series. And that was mostly because of the way I built my team out. And I wanted one of the safer plays in that range. But I am a little bit nervous if he even is a safer play. Like he is in my mind just because I think the Rams are going to be one of the best offences to invest in fantasy this year looking at their schedule, looking at what Aaron Donald can mean from them from a game script standpoint. And from like people often think like, oh, it's bad. They have a good defense for fantasy. I just agree. That means your offense is on the field most of the game. And that to me is the most important thing. And so I am thinking he will score still a lot of touchdowns. But the reality is his touches have gone down. I know you mentioned it. And Blake Corms really freaking good. And they at least showed in the second half of the season, Sean McFay showed he's willing to go a little bit away from what he's done in the past with Williams from a snap share standpoint and just from an overall touch of standpoint. So I kind of really like Blake Cormam this year. I guess is where I'm coming on this one. Scott, anything on the Rams or do you want to go thanks that number 42? Yeah, I'll give you guys a dang stat number 42. It's going to be a 10 Macmillan race young tweet. So Bryce young cleared 207 passing yards, only three times all of last year. That's that's awful. Like Rico Dattle almost cleared 207 rushing yards three times last year. And in those games, 10 Macmillan averaged 105 yards per game. Poor perspective, Dallas hit that mark in 15 of 17 games, seedly an average just 80.3 yards per game. And I think that really kind of just tells the whole story on Tech Macmillan where like I love this guy. I believe in the player. I believe in his talent. It's just Bryce young is so bad. It's just a non viable passing offense. So that's that's just about I think I don't really don't think there's too much more that needs to be said like really talented player or just rough offensive environment. Yeah, it's insane. I have him as like probably a merging budding top 15 maybe better NFL writers. And I can't move him above a wider's either 30 in my rankings because I just have no faith in that passing game and they have a tough schedule too. Now tough. That yards after the catch per reception on middle of the field throws that earlier. T Mac was third behind only an eco Collins and Pupin Akua in yards after the catch per middle of the field reception. He doesn't get a lot of those looks but he's really good on those looks. And that was something we saw in his call to film too. He's so good man. It sucks. Yeah. He's the close thing we have to me to Drake London but it just not show I'm not short matters because like it's bad again as bad as panic was and I just saw that stat you put up Barrett at least he could drive the football. I just don't know if Bryce young could do that. Okay. Stand number 43 is about Kyle Pitz. I'm curious if you have any takes on pits or about the passing game options in Tampa Bay. Was that Robinson moving over there? So only Buchenna Kua and Amana St. Brown had more fantasy points scored as the pre snap motion man than Kyle Pitz in 2025. Where do those looks go with the 26 bucks offense and then also how are we feeling about pits if you loses out on some of that work. Yeah. So I'm really kind of out on Kyle Pitz and I have two stats that back that up. One is that he just has one 100 yard game over the last four years. It's like the same as Cole Komet that's less than Pat Fryer-Muth, John O'Smith. You know, sure, he scored a shit ton of fantasy points in that game, but still only one game. And then the other side of that coin is if you exclude the game's Drake London Mist last year, Pits would have finished as the Titan 17, just 10.0 fantasy points per game. So at his current cost ahead of a lot of Titans, I'd love to take over him. Dad, I wind up with a single Kyle Pitscher. Totally fair. Where do you think these Zach Robinson pre-snap motion manufacturers looks might go in Tampa Bay? Do you think that these copies, so the abstract to target on Kyle Pits is target. Pre-snap motion looks like six to seven yards for Drake London. It was like 12 yards, so I think that's kind of easily transferred over to Becca Buka, the London stuff. I'm wondering if it's like Godwin or like, is there another piece like Kate Auden or something that we're sleeping on here in Tampa Bay? Really not Kate Auden. I really have no idea. Amika Buka, they're saying they're going to move into the Z, which was historically the Cooper Cup Zach Robinson role. And that's great because he really struggled against press coverage last year, worst ass against press, really bad yards for route run against. So move into the Z, get him off the line, have him evade press a little bit more often. Chris Godwin, I was talking to our injury expert, Jeff. He's kind of dust, right? He's like, no, actually, I'm pretty bullish on it. He didn't look bad. Those last few games last year. And they really like Ted Hurst as the X. I don't know. I haven't really settled on the right way to play it, but I've been saying this on my podcast that Amika Buka is the toughest player for me in all of fantasy right now. He's getting him right. And what you saw was first five weeks of the season, he's a Ryan Heathstad. He had the third most fantasy points by any wide receiver, first five games of their career. Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, he was a top five wide receiver overall. And then for the next eight weeks, we detailed Baker Mayfield's 11 injuries. And his accuracy fell off the cliff where it went to only Shitter Sanders was worse by completion percentage over expectation. And then the last four games when Jaylen Macmillan was back and Godwin was there and Evans was there. He was basically the wide receiver for. He was splitting wide receiver three duties with Jaylen Macmillan. And when they were both on the field, he was totally cocked. He had like a 8.6 target share. And so it's just like an amazing best possible first five weeks, awful worst case scenario, last five weeks. And then in the middle bulk, no Evans, he was still getting the volume, but worse catchable target rate in the league. And so there's just like a lot of confounding factors there. Do I want to just go all in on his upside or do I want to place a similar bet on Chris Godwin who goes so much cheaper? It's not something I've really come to a conclusion on. It's something I'm still allowing myself to meditate on. And like a funny thing that you might appreciate is Friday, Saturday, Sunday is a plan on doing a three day fast. And the article, "Draft Guy Drops Monday." And I'm hoping the fast leads to like divine clarity or something to help me with my rankings. But that's one of the ones I definitely plan on meditating over. I love that. I'll plug again this hot tech show that I just did with Theo. I went ahead and made a hot tech that Atbuka will outscore Drake London and that probably pushes him up into the top six, seven eight receivers. A stat author out here, a dank stat on Atbuka is that he had a 58% catchable target rate on over the middle throws. The next lowest in the league was 72%. Yep. So that's really absurdly low. And I think that had a lot of the bigger health. And then I also getting hit on these over the middle of the field throws. Well, yeah. So our injury guy is really just like, yeah, you need to be in on Amekik Buka because it wasn't just Bakers 11 injuries that we mentioned. But it was also, like Buka's injury himself. He picked up that hamstring injury in week six. And Jeff told me that's typically a four to six week injury where you want to sit out two to three games. And it's another two to three weeks before you return to 100%. But if you don't miss any time, which is exactly what happened, it's something that could just play you for literally the rest of the year. And Abenz Solak sat is, he looked at the GPS speeds and Atbuka hit 18 miles an hour as many times in the first five weeks as he did throughout the remainder of the season. So it really clearly limited him. And so either that, by the way, Jeff trashed Tampa Bay's injury staff, like let these guys take a week off, please, you're doing more harm than good. But either injury just like fully writes off everything after a week five for Abuka. Arguably. I think that middle of the field stuff especially is really important for him. Like that's where he said his best in college. That's what he just drafted to do. And then last year he just had to come into play X. And he actually did pretty good especially early in the year. And then he like I gave that list of 10 guys who were great in terms of Yak on middle of the field throws. He was in that list. He was top 10. He just didn't get very many catches over the middle of the field because so many of them were soaring over his head or whatever. Yeah, I'm pretty much I'm pretty much there on the book. I think it could be a massive season if everything, you know, if everything doesn't fall apart for Tampa Bay again. All right, here's a really random set on Isaac Tesla. People need that. We're about out of here. So finished things up with some importance that's here. Thanks to that number 49 Isaac Tesla tied up on our same brown for the team lead in in zone targets on the year only Devante Adams and George Pickens scored more fantasy points on in zone targets than Tesla last year. I've been saying about Isaac Tesla as he has like one of the like his highlight reel might be better than Marvin Harrison Jr. Which is like crazy for a guy who has what six career catches. Yeah, basically. It's three. The highlight reel catch to target ratio is obscene. Third and fantasy points on in zone targets last year. Let's get him the football. Stat number 50 just behind him in in zone target fantasy points scored at why two or five was Keishan booty. This is actually an AJ Brown stat. Not a Keishan booty stat. I mean, maybe it's Keishan booty. He continues to play well. I could be wrong here. But Keishan booty was right is a five and fantasy points scored on in zone targets last year. I'm just going to I'm just going to rip off a bunch of stats here that are all relevant to age around and then we'll get scots scots lots on a JB because I'm very high in them. So Keishan booty fifth in fantasy points scored on in zone targets. Here's another thanks that relevant to AJB Drake may pass a rating when targeting his first read year one with bad coaching and not great first three targets available to him. QB 30 year two with good coaching and just decent competency at in terms of his past catchers. QB one and pass a rating when targeting his first read. I think that that is relevant for AJ Brown who's going to be the first read a lot. I watched a ton of Drake may film and it's like so many of these plays when he's releasing the ball. It's just because his right is everyone has a one-to-one opportunity. It's not he has no idea if they're even going to win it. But he just gives him an opportunity to win it because he is able to throw an anticipation and ball placement where it needs to be and let their guy let his guy go get it. And it's like to me that's that's perfect for AJ Brown right. I think this is clearly the best quarterback situation that we've seen. So some more in zone targets. If you want to dig deeper into the Josh McDaniel stuff, Devonta adips had more than twice as many in zone fantasy points. This is not relevant to McDaniel's but we're about to get to more Devonta adips stuff from the McDaniel's area. So I just think this is fun. Devonta adips last year had more than twice as many in zone fantasy points as George Pickens who is second place. So he had like 114 I think fantasy points scored on in zone targets and pickens was next at like 54 or something like that. 2007 Randy Moss is the only player with more fantasy point scored on in zone targets dating back to 2000 than last year's Devonta adips which by the way Devonta adips was wide receiver one in fantasy points status separation score. Do you want to take a quick aside on that? Have you got like is there any context that needs to be added or is it just no it's that simple he creates massive separation. Have you talked to your team about that at all like wide receiver one out of all the players in the NFL last year in separation score? I don't know. Yeah. Yeah. That's where they have him. And last year he led the league in in zone fantasy points scored. He dominated on these throws to the in zone. He got a ton of them. The only season that's had more points produced in that way is ready boss in 2007 which of course came under Josh McDaniel's. So did the booty season. We've seen like this happen a lot for McDaniel's. That's nothing new. Some other examples are that we're getting really deep into the weeds here. Late career brand and Lloyd scored 77 PPR points on in zone targets under McDaniel's which would have ranked second in the NFL last year ahead of George Pickens by a substantial amount. And that came in 12 games with McDaniel's before he was fired. So 12 games he scored 77 PPR points on in zone targets alone. He had 42% of the in zone targets. This is 29 year old brand Lloyd. He then followed McDaniel's to the Rams the next year Lloyd did and had 56% of the in zone targets. That's just below that Randy Moss 2007 season, 57% of the in zone targets. And then we also have, of course, the 2022 Raiders, the Monterey Adam season, where he has 40% of the in zone targets scores 14 touchdowns with Josh McDaniels. So I think it's pretty clear that McDaniels is willing to hammer somebody. We've also seen Grunk, of course, but somebody often a Y2C1 in terms of just getting that guy the ball in the in zone, finding good ways to get them the ball. And now he has AJ Brown, who's one of the best in the league at that. I think this leads to like an interesting diet ride for me that's maybe like 10 foil hat worthy. But before we do, I just shout out to Brandon Lloyd, who is kind of like the Isaac Tesla of his day. Only one career went 1000 yard season, although he led all wide receivers and receiving yards that year, I'm pretty sure. But like insane highlight reel. Like if you only watched highlight reels, you'd think he was better than Larry Fitzgerald made some insane catches. But yeah, I think this is interesting. So you bring up Josh McDaniels history with wide receiver ones. I've been referring to Drake May as the Mao Zedong of quarterbacks just because of how much he likes to spread the ball around. There was a report of like him in high school. He had a junior year 50 touchdowns, two interceptions. And at halftime, every single game he would check not his own numbers, but his receivers numbers. He was quote unquote obsessed with spreading the ball around. That was something that this reporter said carried through to his days in college and in the NFL. And I think you saw that last year's Stefan Diggs was really good. He he ranked third in yards for Routrun behind only hook into Kuwait, JSM. But it was very rare for him to go off and back to back weeks. Instead, there was, okay, he goes off and then it's to Mary as Douglas. And then it's K-Shang Booty. And then, okay, when we're back to Stefan Diggs. And so that's just like an interesting kind of tidbit that's stuck in the back of my mind that I haven't heard anyone else talk about. But as I'm working through this draft guide and mind you on 95% done with it. So I finally have the time to really kind of allow myself to think stupid things if I wanted to. You know, and like really explore different possibilities. And one of the ones that has stuck in the back of my mind is, are we sleeping on Romeo Dobbs? I have Romeo Dobbs buried in my rankings, right? But like I have this little thing, you know, it's warm stuck in the back of my brain. It's like, could Romeo Dobbs actually, does he, is there a ceiling there? Could he be like awesome? Because Shada Zane Dunani, one of our writers, he's like, like the go to news guy this, this off season, is quoting from the athletic is that, quote unquote, Dobbs profiles more like a high volume big slot in a similar role to New England's leading receiver a year ago. Stefan Diggs, keep in mind, you know, the past moved on from Diggs after he led the team and targets with 102 at 85 receptions over a thousand receiving yards, blah, blah, blah. And in that same blurb, they talk about AJ Brown, they talk about him like he's a sacrificial X, you know, Matt Harman's thing where he's just stretching the field opening things up for Romeo Dobbs, moving through the middle of the field. And so there's that there's also the interesting note there that, oh, they view Romeo Dobbs as their big slot. Here's a stat for you. Over the last two years, Romeo Dobbs leads all players in average separation score from the slot. Maybe this is where he's belonged all along one Romeo Dobbs, two Z flowers, three George pick ins for Jerry Judy, five Malik neighbors, six Jamar chase, seven Amin Ross, eight Justin Jefferson, all the way the top Romeo Dobbs. And let's not forget you're talking about Josh McDaniel's wide receiver one. How often was that wide receiver won the slot. Since he came into the league as a plate OC or play call or back in 2007, Josh McDaniel's slot wide receiver has finished top 12 in 44% of his seasons, top 25 and 72% of his season. It's like, all right, sure, they had West Welker, they had Julian Edelman, they had Jacobi Myers, all those guys were UDF base or sign off the street or round seven draft picks. And so maybe it's maybe it's the Josh McDaniel slot role. We're undervaluing versus a potentially washed AJ Brown. And again, if you look at my rankings, I'm very high on AJ Brown. I am not that high on Romeo Dobbs, but this is, you know, three days until the draft guy drops. Time to allow myself to go off the deep end and just explore these. Is any of that persuasive to you? I love this. So I've wondered if we're sleeping on Dobbs. I brought it up to Ryan Heath and he laughed at me. And I would throw back to him. It's like you love first downspirer outrun and you've shown that first downs are very predictive of, you know, future scoring wide receiver. Dobbs last year is one of 21 receivers that have a first down per out run rate of 10% or higher. He's always been pretty good in this study. He's been a very important part of how the Packers attack like on third downs and critical situations in the near the in zone. And stuff. It's often designs for Romeo Dobbs. I think he's a good player. The slot stuff is bizarre. I would in my head, I just picture him as the X in this offense. That just makes sense to me that in the same way that like you pay all the money because he fills this role for you and allows everybody else to be better. That's what I imagine Dobbs as. But if it's the inverse of that and it's actually AJ Brown doing that, then sure. Do you have any thoughts, Dan? I mean, Dobbs is somebody that we watched like coming into the league. Do you feel like he could fill that? I mean, he ran out. Yeah. People think of him as the X and he did a lot of that, but he also did a lot of horizontally breaking stuff for Matt LaFlor. Like really high horizontally breaking route rate for Matt LaFlor. A lot of that was working outside, but also did some of the over the middle of the field stuff too. And we've got obviously the separation score in the slot is interesting. Any thoughts on this? Yeah, I think he could fit it. And I think that's probably the role you want to target. I just got to have me thinking real galaxy brain with that thought with that comment that stuck in his mind. I'll Drake make is I was just thinking in my head as he was mentioning it. Like I watched more Drake may tape at UNC than probably anyone ever should have. So I was so obsessed with them as a prospect. And that is it checks out. Like that's how it looked during those days as well. So I wonder if that's part of who he is as a quarterback is DNA is to spread the football around. And if that's the case, he's still going to lean. I think on those easy button targets when he has to. That's just kind of how that earn hard part perkins system works with the Daniels. It's like the slot is the featured player in it. Is that Romeo dobs? But I was I've been kind of hopeful throughout this all offseason that they can move AJ Brown into that role at times as well. So I think he can win there at this stage of his career. I guess we'll see, but it is does have me thinking he might be too low on dobs. All right, Scott, you got one more thanks that for us. We didn't quite get to our 69 number today, but we are hoping to once Scott has his draft guide out and everything. We've got a little bit of space to breathe, get together and finish up with a remaining whatever 10, 15 stats. I think we've been, I mean, honestly, there've been plenty of stats that probably didn't get counted. We probably got 69 today. We got very close. What's what's your last stat you want us and the people off with today? The people aren't going to care about this. It's just that you will appreciate it. And I discovered it yesterday. So it's fresh on my mind. I think it's really interesting. So don't sleep on the old ass wide receivers. By separation score, the top three wide receivers last year were one, a 33 year old Devonte Adams, two, a 32 year old Mike Evans, three Jackson Smith and Jigba. And so that's like kind of shocking to see the old guys all the way up there. But I found another stat where as good at the were in separation, they were all time bad. So worst yards after the catch per reception seasons in fantasy points data history, which goes back to 2021 Mike Evans, 2025, 1.33, Marvin Jones, Jr. in 2021 and then three Devonte Adams last year, 1.93. So all time bad seasons by yards after the catch per reception, all time great seasons by separation. What does that tell you? I think that means for wide receivers, you know, separate like a heavyweight boxer powers the last thing to go or a heavyweight wide receiver separations the last thing to go probably after the catch prowess is one of the first things to go. And so I just thought that one was was a little interesting, maybe not super actionable, but certainly interesting. Yeah, I mean, definitely I think so much of it like then I remember you and I watched a bunch of Mike Evans stats or plays before we did the Mike Evans video when he got you know signed by the Niners and it was like so much of these are just jump balls and so many of them were thrown just out of reach or whatever, you know, like this really not many opportunities for him to get catch around I think he could get more of that in San Francisco. I'm not quite convinced that like any of the data we have last year on Evans is necessarily that meaningful in terms of like predicting that there's been a drop off or anything like that I will see. But yeah, Devonte Adams, I think that's it's a little bit of role, but also that is kind of where he's at. Dan, do you have a stat you want to leave us with? We were planning to have one thing stat from Dan to finish show off to have some of the ones that I'm just going to throw out there and it's kind of like a narrative stat it leads to a few different things is last season. And this is shout out to Ryan Heath where I first saw this last season Tyrone Tracy ranked third worst among all running backs in power gap runs and on zone runs he was okay. Cam's got a boo ranked eighth best in power gap. Why is that matter? - Stolen valor. - What did you say? - This is my stat. This is stolen valor. - I saw it from Ryan Heath. I guess he stole it from me. - He's a, he's a, you know, Kai said, 'cause it's my, I mean, I'll drop it in. - I actually have it right in front of me. - I got a fight. - Ryan Heath still is, yes, Ryan Heath stole this, June 24th. - I'm June 8th. What an A-hole. - What an A-hole that Ryan Heath is. You know, he would never invite it back on the show after this. - Well, a stolen stat from originally, it's got Barrett, then me, via Ryan Heath. - What a boo. - Scott Boo was eighth best in success rate on these man gap schemes. Why is that important? Well, Greg Roman is now designing the Giants Run game. And Greg Roman leans on power gap concepts. In addition to that, they brought in Patrick Ricard. Since Greg Roman has been the coordinator, and that was two years in Baltimore with Patrick card, Ricard played 57% and 64% of the snaps. People think Patrick Ricard just brought in to be some bit player? No, he's most likely going to play over half the snaps for the Giants, which by the way, is another reason I'm not as high on dark. I think there's going to be such a run-havvy offense. And if you look at the numbers, the run game took a major boost with Patrick card in game. Now, here are some of the actual numbers. When Greg Roman was OC for the Ravens 2019 to 2022, sure those are some Henry years, but the Ravens' Align was not anything special in those years. They had pretty much, I feel it pretty much on par with where the Giants are after adding France Smalley Noah. Greg Roman's rushing attack was number one, NPA per play over that three years span. Number two in success rate. Number one in yards per attempt. Number one in first down rate and number one in runs of 10 plus yards. Cam's category fits the scheme perfectly. They added France Smalley Noah. They've arguably in my mind the best run game coordinator in the NFL. You could say Mike McDaniel, I'll entertain that. You could say Ben Johnson. William Cohen, I'll entertain all those. He's at minimum top five. I think Cam's category is still being undervalued based on what his upside could be. And he's one of the best picks in his range that actually has league winning upside rather than some of the guys that we like in that range where he's being drafted, but probably only have upside two slightly beat out their ADP. I think Scott Abou has massive, massive upside in this offense and with this fit. Hell yeah, I love it. This was my Exodia running back last year. I went all in on. Love it. I almost jumped off a building after that injury. But really believed in the prospect coming out. My comp for him was Peyton Hillis that one year he was on steroids, which was awesome, which is the most fun I've ever watched. A running back. Last year we were ranked top five in fantasy points per snap. The average 19.3 fantasy points per game in the six games he played at least a dozen snaps. Or if you want to account for injury and just do per four full quarters, it's 20.2 fantasy points per four full quarters, which would have ranked fifth among all running backs last year. And he's certainly not drafted anywhere near that. And like you said, from the sat that Ryan, he stole from me, is he's a perfect fit for the Greg Roman offense. And Tyrone Tracy is a worst possible fit for that offense. And so I expect a bell cow workload for him. And by the way, it is the Greg Roman per sources. He's basically the run game coordinator, but they can't say that because the chargers are still paying him. So Matt Negi has his influence, but the run game, it's going to be a vintage Greg Roman run game. And yeah, there's just a player I love. And the only concern is injury, but shout out again to Jeff Mueller, who's pretty optimistic. Well, actually, Joe Shane today spoke like an hour ago and said, "Gams Goddard was a literal full go for training game." Yeah. "The team he will be doing everything, individuals, team, "Levin' on 11, everything." So I don't think that's, we'll see, but I'm less concerned there than I was. Look at this, Dan. More from Ryan Heath. Or is it the second time Ryan Heath from Ryan Heath? This is unreal. Ryan Thief. This is three months ago on Fantasy Football Today Beyond the Box score. Me, Dan, Ryan Thief. I'm throwing out a great-- Ryan Thief. Ryan Thief. I'm throwing out a great-- Tracy. Tracy, series. I say, "Goodlime, M'Conkey. "Be this year's Jason." A couple months later, months later, what we got, Ryan Thief coming out and saying, "I'm talking to this year's Jason." Interesting. Reputation for himself. Now, not only is he the palest Fantasy Sports Podcasts, everybody might be the stolen Valor guy. No, we're not hailers up. We're doing this industry. [LAUGHTER] All right. Thank you for everyone who made it through almost two hours of dank stats. Really appreciate you for joining the show, Scott. Check him out on everything Fantasy Points. And obviously, if you can, subscribe to Fantasy Points data because then you're going to get all this information yourself. And that's something that's great to have. So thank you so much. You can find them over there as Jacobs pointing out here on the YouTube side. On their YouTube, the Fantasy Points YouTube channel, Fantasy Points, Fantasy Football, I should say. Thank you, everybody else who's listening. Please hit the like button. Please subscribe, leave comments. It's a three-prong approach that I always preach on here, because it's going to help us grow the show. And it's working, man. We're almost up to five-case subscribers already here over on Beyond the Box, where we're pumping out content really more than I ever could have expected. And it's really exciting. It's really fun. And we've got a lot more planned for you with a lot of good guests coming up as well, like Scott Barrett. So a lot of good people. Thank you for joining us. 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