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597 | Federal Budget 2026: Are YOU a Winner or Loser? (Property Edition)

71m 8s

597 | Federal Budget 2026: Are YOU a Winner or Loser? (Property Edition)

The podcast hosts discuss the Australian federal budget's property tax reforms, which they describe as the most significant in 15 years. Key changes include limiting negative gearing to new builds and replacing the 50% capital gains tax discount with cost-based indexation, effective from May 12, 2026. Existing properties are grandfathered, but new investments face less favorable tax treatment. The hosts criticize the budget as politically motivated, aimed at winning younger voters, but argue it will not improve housing affordability. They predict reduced rental supply in desirable areas near schools and hospitals, leading to higher rents, which will hurt first-home buyers trying to save deposits. The hosts stress that location is now even more critical, doing 90% of the heavy lifting for property investment. They caution against speculative trading in regional markets, where investors may face losses, while buy-and-hold strategies in strong locations remain viable. An upcoming webinar will provide deeper analysis on market dynamics and investment strategies under the new rules.

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This is again the most important update I have done in the last 15 years. This is nothing more than collecting tax, giving people on a lower down on the socio-economic ladder less opportunities to give ahead. Well this is all the most life-a-court. You're tuning in to the Property Couch, Australia's number one property, finance and money podcast featuring the Titans of the industry since 2015, where trusted by tens of thousands of investors on their journey to financial peace. This show is powered by more. Thanks off the ES and welcome back to another edition of the number one Property Podcast in Australia, the Property Couch. And if we got a surprise for you, brass hold away. Oh my, how good is it to be back? Oh, look it just feels like. It would have been nice under bit of circumstances, but here we are. We have a huge show today, don't we? I mean, ultimately, big news. Yeah. It's hot off the press. So we're recording the morning after the federal budget announcements and obviously the significant changes in respect to property. There's a lot of people that need a lot of advice. So we're going to do our best in terms of we've got everything sort of sitting here as we're going through lots of questions from our amazing community. We've got obviously a fair bit to get through. But before we do, mate, I mean, you know, can we just talk about free-out quickly? Because our long as it's been since we talked about it for a long time. Oh, it's so good. It's so good. I mean, I haven't been able to talk about it. So just want to take one week at a time. Keep a lid on it. Yeah, well, the only good thing that I really want to talk about is where you are in comparison to free-out. It's honest. And we weren't on the mic together when we took that amazing pack mark in the wet in the late business side of the game. But today's a very serious topic. And thanks for having me back on. I think it's, this is probably the biggest change in our, on the positive sort of on the negative side since we've been investing. So it was important that we came in here to chat. But Jim Charmers-Bandes said it's the most important and ambitious budget in decades. And ambitious is one thing. I think we should premise today by saying a couple things. One, it got to live at 15 hours ago. So you and I are still, we're putting, this is our fast thinking response. We're still sitting through it. We're doing a slow thinking response as well. And two, it hasn't been passed. It's just, it has to go through the Senate. It has to be passed. And three, I think we've been here before. Like you and I have had lots of conversations around these sorts of changes back in 2016 and 2019 and here we are in 2026. So it's not as if we haven't touched on some of these points before but the only difference now is it's no longer theory or taking it to an election. We've been ambushed, been, we've been midterm some of these changes that only 12, 15 months ago, you know, the Prime Minister said for the 50th time we won't touch negative gearing. And here we are. Look, so I don't want to spend too much time on the politics but make no mistake, this is a political budget and it's trying to win the voters who are trying to get into the property market. They're seeing the demographic shift of the baby boomers moving out and now the biggest cohort of voters. And so when, you know, I originally did a piece to camera for picker talking about the potential changes and what was coming and everyone initially said, ah, they won't change it. Well, here we are, we are where we are. So yeah, I mean, it obviously from an integrity, from a trust point of view, it's the third big promise that they've broken. So I think that that's something that they're going to have to live with and they'll be voted by judges. But let's just, let's just, you know, the way in which I want to play this is, this is what we've got in front of us. It may change in terms of, let's just live there might be some tweaks to it. But I would, I think given obviously the balance of how they're having a lower house and also with the sport of the Greens, most of this is pretty much going to get through. Now, of course, we're doing this before the Liberal reply and what one nation is also going to be thinking about and the Tears and everything. So I suspect that there is going to be a divide here and voters will be able to then think about that, you know, when it comes to 2028. Because what a, you know, we've have seen tax reform repealed, but that's, that's the, that's the politics. I think there'll be a group of people that are celebrating today, Ben, which is the younger generation who feel like there's inequity and getting into the property play. But I think what's, I think what will play out and I think the message to anyone who's listening who fits that sort of demographic profile is, I think your victory will, will be short lived. For all the reasons we've talked about for the last 200 episodes, Ben, I think your victory will be short lived and we're going to go into some of the reasons why we think that's the case. But it certainly is, I guess we should probably talk about just quickly go off. Some of the things that are changing, the negative-bearing changes, obviously from the 12th of May, 730 PM Australian Eastern Daylight time, if you hadn't entered into a contract, you then no longer were able to work under the old rules. You'll have a 12 month, I guess, period that if you wanted to, you know, negative gear for a year and then sell before the changes coming to you to do that from the 1st of July. Yeah, they're referring to it as a 2027. Yeah, and you've got to get the legislation through. There's a lot of changes here. But I think it's going to lock people in. In terms of freeing up supply, a lot of people say, "Oh, good investors will leave," and another spot for an owner, I think that's fine, but I think it's going to lock. All the people that had all of the pre-1985 benefits, they were holding on for dear life because they didn't want to lose those. Now there's a cohort of people who have got the benefits of having rules prior to the budget night, and I think they'll lock those in. Most people will want to try and hold on for dear life. We'll change the landscape. Yeah, probably we'll talk about that. I think that's what we've got to do. We've got to sort of look at what we're going to go and where the fundamental things haven't changed. As Warren Buffett would always talk about, you know, in terms of a Snickers bar, it's always a Snickers bar and it'll always be a popular bar and Coca-Cola will always be a popular brand and they've got pricing, apparently. So I think that's what we've got to be thinking about in terms of short term. You're going to see some behaviour change, but then over the long term, you know, it's a boating machine versus the weighing machine. I think it's important to understand that in 1999, when they did make the change in terms of the capital gains 50% exemption, because remember, Keating bought in capital gains tax in 9 and 85, right? And also made changes in negative gearing and then adjusted those because for two years, because they could see that was impacting, especially Sydney rentals were going higher and obviously that was the market that he spent most of your time in, so he made some adjustments at. So it's fair to say that by design, those tax settings were favourable. They were favourable for this concept of being able to build wealth and build out that. So that's true. What have we moved from to where we are now? Well, obviously less favourable, but you might ask more balanced in the sense that what they're trying to do is they're trying to bring up the tax that you pay on wealth creation. And you know, what they should have tried to do is bring down income earning tax, but no, they've left that high and they're just basically recalibrating the wealth tax that we pay on our capital earnings. And that's the problem here, right? So we're going into that in another podcast with Evan and the chief economist of Bendigo Bank next week. So we'll be unpacking the broader budget there. But for me, so I've made an initial assessment in terms of what's going to happen over the long period of time. So we've moved from a favourable selling more now to a balanced setting. So no matter what asset class I'm going to buy into, I'm going to roughly be paying similar types of taxes if I sell and realise any gains. So I then come back to OK, what's the superpower of property? The superpower of property is still leverage in terms of how I'm able to control a higher value. And then I'm going to be asking myself, is there going to be different types of markets? Like what are the markets over the long term where the value shows up in the land versus what are the markets in the long term where I might be chasing income, but not necessarily getting value out of the land and the economic markets associated with that. And also groups of people that are going into certain markets on mass, therefore on a low base, artificially influencing. So people have a look, have the look on paper that they're creating an enormous amount of wealth. They are vulnerable as well. But we talked about the negative year in changes. The CGT changes, people would have seen some of these things happening over the last couple of days when this comes out. But the 50% discount has been abolished, it's been replaced by the cost-based indexation bin. I've actually done this in real practice. I used to do that. Because my first accounting role was in 1998, which is obviously pre-90. And so I used to have to get the master tax guide at the time. There was a table at the back at the night to work out the indexation number when they sold, the indexation number when they bought, do a division, multiply that by the gain. So I've been involved in the, and it was onerous and the tax accounts across the country are very excited about that. As are the valuers from the first of July. Well, the valuers are going to be interesting. Will they be able to keep up with the amount of money they're going to get? valuations that need to be done. But look, the CGT 50% has been gone. There's some transitional rules that we just touched on before. And so existing property, just so it's clear for all of our audience, existing properties before 12th of May, 2026, that 730 budget delivery, fully grandfathered and exempt from all the changes. For the negative gearing, yes, yes, or the CGT. No, so for the CGT, effectively what's happening there is that once you get your valuation on the 30th of June or the 1st of July, that will have the 50%. Yes. And then obviously the indexation from that. So there'd be a bit of sort of working out a bit of this and did you apply under that and then pro-router from here. So it's going to get very, very complex. Which leads me into one of the first areas that I have concerns about. So if someone is being trading in property and they're being taught that through bios agency groups and so forth that we're going to go into certain markets and we're going to run the price up and then we're going to cash out, take that profit and go again. There's a real problem there because to your point around the listings and those markets and I've been pretty vocal on social media on this. But I guess for, you know, it's kind of very naive for someone in one of those markets to think, oh, maybe it's time for me to sell to not think that one of their mates and all of a sudden there's 8, 9, 10 properties up for sale. And all of a sudden that just drops the price, the floor just comes out. And then all, so therefore we will see who's been swimming naked because you and I were talking about that being a dangerous move. When everything's going great and there's just a lot of hubris in the market and everyone's just, well, they're going, what are you two know? You're just, you two are just dinosaurs. What would you know? But ultimately we will see what that looks like very, very soon. Hey folks, Ben here. I hope you're enjoying the podcast. Now, if you want to take your property, finance and money knowledge, even further, check out the new mind knowledge in more. We've packed my knowledge with over 120 plus free resources from free reports to educational video series to fact sheets, on demand courses and heaps more. Get started today at thepropeticatch.com.au/myknowledge. Yeah, look, I'm going to go deeper on this price and an upcoming webinar. So on Tuesday, the 26th of May 730 PM, details are in the show descriptions, thepropeticatch.com.au/registernow. I will be talking and it will be an extensive session because effectively my intention is to take you through a really fundamental understanding of the markets and the dynamics. So we're going to be talking about who are buyers, what is by a depth and what does that mean. Then we're going to be talking about what are their short term economic drivers and then what are the long term economic drivers and some, there's some stuff in here, Bryce, that I've never shared before in terms of how we think about those things. So we're giving away even more of our intellectual property in that. Now, for our beautiful valued customers, make no mistake, we are thinking deeply about you at the moment. So you get to go the night before. Now, because a lot of our existing customers do not have properties in remote regional areas, which is where we see the exposure and the risk, I won't need to talk much about that. I'll probably cover it off very briefly, but for those people, which brings us back to that point. Now, of course, there's no registration for our clients. They will get an exclusive invite via email. If you haven't received an email from us, please reach out to us because we need to make sure that your email is verified so we can actually deliver email to you. It's super important that you, this is again, the most important update I have done and Bryce and I have done in the last probably 15 years. So please get along to that session because it's going to be incredibly informative for you and I just want to pick up on your point, Bryce. So when, when, that, that, just to quickly, for those people who are in those remote regional areas and they've been taught to trade properties, they're all thinking the same thing. And that is, well, if everyone else is thinking, I need to get out. Let's get out. Let's get out. And the shallow, the shell on us in the mutton, we're already seeing it in the data, mate. Well, Dan White from the Ray White group talks to this point, Ben, he goes, limiting negative gearing to new builds assumes rental supply is interchangeable. It is not a new apartment in an out of growth corridor does not replace a rental home near a school hospital or train line. Regional markets are especially exposed. Many simply don't have the development pipelines to absorb this kind of policy shock. Nope. And in, I'll explain to people about the inverse relationship with land and improvements. And in capital cities, the land holds the greater value and the dwelling improvements, even the new builds are usually less than the land. And if they're not run a mile from an investment, but in regional areas, the land is cheaper. And it's price cheaper because of the economic moat and the economic flow. Well, it's just not as strong. So you get this inverse relationship where the land to asset ratio is 60% in the improvements and only 40% in the land. That's problematic. So, you know, and, and we've got an exclusive today too, Ben. Yes. We've got an exclusive because we need to wind back something that we have long held on the property couch. And we're just going under the new regime. It's just not true. Yeah. And that's when we used to talk about location doing 80% of the hefty heavy lifting. That is just not true anymore. So we just want to wind that back. Location now does 90% of the heavy lifting because under this regime, we'll talk about some reasons why. But let's circle back to the end because for as long as this podcast has been going, we've said it's done most of the heavy lifting. It is now more important than ever. Yeah, it is. And it and I mean, the the the principles that we've expressed and theorized and all of the things that we've done in terms of, if that's a word, to try and get people to understand, owner-occupier appeal. And as investors, we should always be price takers, not price makers, in regional markets. Unfortunately, they have been the price maker in the last two or three years. So that's the, you know, tie going out swimming naked. So owner-occupier appeal, economic activity, human interest and human behavior. We're going to go deeper than we've ever gone in terms of those explanations and in the in the the academic theory that's also in the economic papers that I've read over the journey to sort of bring that to life. So that probably for me is when I'm, you know, if people are like saying, well, tell us what we should do because that's what they're sort of saying. If you're an existing investor and you've got properties in great locations and you've now got the grandfathering and negative gearing and ultimately you get to lock in the value of the, on the 1st of July, 2027 and then you get indexing after that with a minimum of 30%. So that's something which is going to be mindful of. But if you've been, if you're playing, if your playing was to buy and hold, then I don't think that changes much. I can't say blanket because everyone's circumstances are different, but that's. Well, we wrote a book band together, our third one, which was designed to be evergreen and it doesn't, it doesn't get too much of a hammering at all under these changes because it was still only to buy a couple of properties. Combine that with your super. And I guess for those people, what it does mean, what these changes mean is that the people that it was designed to protect the most will be in trouble because it's, yeah, they won't fix the housing. And what it will mean is, as an investor from today onwards, what you used to rely on when you would charge your rent is the fact that you'd get a little bit of tax relief, so you would factor that into your price. Well, now that no longer exists and for you to be able to hold these properties, you actually have to charge an increased amount of rent. And so what that will mean is, you know, because there's a couple of scenarios, this from this point going forward, you'll have the, there'll be no new established property supply in the market. And from this point going backwards, there will be a bunch of people who will throw their batten ball out of the cot and go, this, I don't want to play this game anymore, so they will sell. And so some people will go, oh, that's great. That means that a new owner occupies into the market. What that actually means is the supply of rental property in the areas around the hospitals and the train stations and the schools and the built up areas will be as diminished as it's ever been. And so that's where people want to rent and their rents will actually go up. And guess what? If you are actually trying to save a deposit to buy a house as a first homeowner, you have now probably going to have to pay more rent in the area that you want to live or move much further out where you don't want to live. And by the way, a lot of young people were buying exchange traded funds as a way, or shares, or anything to do with the equity market as a way to instead of putting their deposit in the bank, they'd put their deposit into an some form of investment arrangement so that they could accelerate the building of the the deposit quicker. All they would do rent-vesting, that's gone. Now, so it's actually, there's nothing in the budget that actually helped prices go down. All they said is the rate of increase will slow down. So they're not getting cheaper. And any mechanisms that you had in place to try and bridge the biggest gap that is the problem right now for any young person who wants to get into the property market is, how on earth do I get a deposit? Well, the CGT changes just made that even harder. Yeah, so that's the unintended consequence that you're talking about, right? So when you try and manipulate a free market economy, you get these unintended consequences. So explaining that in simple terms, we're going to have a new breed of property sprickers that will be and the existing ones who have been selling brand new. Yeah. They're having a good day today in their minds. They're having long lunches today. They're thinking great, I'm going to make my 50% commission. 50,000 dollar commissions on all of these new. What is the share pain for lunch, everyone? They're going to, so we're going to, to Bryce's point, you play that behavioral point out if unsuspecting consumers fall for their pitch, which is let's buy a house and land package, when I sell off a stock list, they are in new build areas. So they're in greenfield subdivisions and there's always lots of vacant land out there. And so you're going to be buying an investment property like potentially hundreds of others if they are susceptible to this dumb idea. And so there's going to be a glut of rental properties in those areas. And don't forget when you buy it and then you want to put it back on the market, guess who can't buy it off you? Yes, another investor. And guess who doesn't want to buy it in the first place? Own a Rocky Piles. Or a smart investor. So, so, so expect to see the reintroduction of rental guarantees that will be priced into the value that you pay. So there'll be one, two, three year rental guarantees to stimulate you to put your money down to buy one of these properties. And then every one of those will fall off at the same time. So the rental market will collapse in that particular space. What are you saying Ben? It's going to do another lap of our first 100 episodes just so that you make sure you know what you're about to deal with. So, I mean, we're fixing bad property advice for people who are told to buy in trusts. You know, that's now a dark idea. And so, you know, we warn people about that. And I'll, I'll, I'll, I'll, I'll put a package together in a future episode where we cut into, you know, all the time, all the, all the warnings that we make about the things and then they're now coming true. Because it feels like we're making a second round of fixing bad property advice. But so let's, so, okay. So, so as a rental, you're going to have tremendous choice in on the fringes of the city where there's no primary schools built yet. No, there's no decent public transport. There's nothing at all. You'll get to live in a high, you know, high density apartment in the city or on the fringe of the city. So there will be, so, so those rents will be controlled. And the outer suburb areas will be controlled. But there will be this big hollowing out of the middle suburbia. And so there will be a rental premium in those locations over time. Now, we do know it's probably a good little segue into this concept of new builds. And there was some, some interesting stuff inside the, the treasury notes. I, I think they've done an okay job of thinking a little bit about this. But you're just not going to get the level of supply potentially. People will see this as a business opportunity. So there will be, there will be these new small time developers and people that, that see this as an opportunity. And that is that what, what they're, they're grounding is this, that they want to reward capital that funds supply. So the hypothetical scenario here is I buy an existing 1950s post-war bungalow in maybe a year of old, seven, okay, on a reasonable bit of dirt, say 600 square meters of dirt. And I buy that and then I knock it over and I build a duplex. And so if I've funded that capital supply and built that duplex, then potentially I get the opportunity to negatively gear that. And I also get the, the option of the 50%. Because it falls under what they call the new build status as part of that. So if you are the funder of that supply, then ultimately you do get this opportunity around new builds. And so I know you mentioned it earlier. Well, let's, let's talk about that too, Ben. That because the, the intergenerational inequity was what this budget was all about, right? But who can do what you just did? A Boomer with equity. Correct. Who's got the, I was going to use, okay, the balls to actually take on the, the amount of debt that's required to turn one house into two. And then be able to fund that within an increase in interest rate environment. But if they do that, they will be rewarded handsomely because they actually hold the, the best land. But if you've got a young person, they can't do that. They don't have the resources to do that. And what about middle Australia who want to invest? They've now been locked out of that hollowed middle ring that you just talked about. So the inequity to them is enormous. And it doesn't, it doesn't fix the housing issue because, you know, the, the, the rhetoric that we got from charmers, every interview that he did in the lead up was, you know, we understand supplies, the problem. But there's, there's nothing in here that's actually helped anyone get onto the ladder. All it's done is, given them an opportunity to, to collect more tax because they, we don't have a cost of living crisis, we have a cost of government crisis. And then they're not doing anything to stop the amount of people coming here. So the bar will continue to overflow because the amount of tax revenue base that they get from, from just the ordinary worker paying tax is a very significant part of the, the taxation revenue that they receive. So this is, this is nothing more than collecting tax, giving people on a lower, lower down on the socio economic ladder, less opportunities to get ahead. And the people who already have the money, they, when is always wind bend, they'll find ways. But it's only the people with resources will be able to find ways. We won't go deep into the loopholes, but we'll try and spend a little time at the end to have it just a couple of scenarios there. But I want to pick up on what you're saying. The Treasury modeling suggests that under these settings for supply, so remember when I said the tax settings were favourable, they were favourable under the, the model as of Monday, not the model as of Wednesday, to increase supply. The Treasury modeling declares that this is going to have a 30 to 35,000 less, less supply under this model. And they're, they're saying that we, this will allow 75,000 new first home buyers to get into the market in the next decade. And they're, they're saying that it'll have a 2% impact on prices. Now that's like saying the, the ASX 200 moves by 2%. But if I own CSL, will they, they drop by 16% over the last week. So there's going to be winners and losers when it comes into that. So that's number one, I don't buy into that 2%. There will be markets that will have double digit falls off the back of this. And then we are the markets that will do quite well out of it. So that's, that's the other part. And then they have the, the modeling that suggests it's only going to have a $2 a week impact on rents. Now again, sure, because if I've got an extra 10,000 high, high, high rise apartments for rent, and I've got potentially, you know, so if you wash it all out over all across Australia, $2 a week, yeah, yeah. But I don't live all over Australia. I live in middle suburbia of a, of a international city. My rents are going to go up and they are going to go up strongly. Yeah. Because I am going to substitute what I've potentially lost over here in terms of the, the potential future capital gain. Because I need a game, you know, I've said this in the past. As an investor, you're looking for a risk adjusted return, right? And you're looking for a rate that's better than the no risk. So and if the no risk 10 year bond rate is 5 or 6%. If you're going to invest money, you want a better rate of return than that. So if I don't get a rate of return of 7, 8, 9, 10%, what would I take the risk? So that's the risk on ultimate future supply. So I'm really quite concerned about that. And I want to also pick up on your point around the people who's going to hurt the most. High net worth individuals, double household income people. Happy days. There's new making. You can slide adjustments to make, but you can still get on with it. Yeah. And like, of course, I'm going to have to find additional amount. Yeah. But then like across a minute, trade or 10 grand in cash flow to get in. But they say the bigger picture. But if I'm a single nurse, a teacher, a single person, you have robbed me of the opportunity. And to your point, yes, I will get negatively geared share investing. But oh my God, putting leverage into the share market. Yeah, with margin calls. Ooh. No investment advice here, people, but I'm actually talking a down. So that's not advice. Yeah. And yeah, so you might get that. But to your point, you're going to get whacked on the capital gain when you sell that. because that's the deposit that you're trying to do. So everyone's sort of saying, well, what should you have done? I mean, this is what I get asked from a picker point of view. And I'm saying, look, if you want to, if this is a supply problem and it is, then you need to get rid of red tape regulations, reduce the taxes that you're charging, where 50% of the new builds is in taxes and charges. Right number one, do the right thing around modular homes and do the changes around all the requirements in terms of build requirements. We've gone over the top in terms of all of the extra compliance and so forth. So we should have different ratings for different types of homes. So if you build a modular home, it won't necessarily have all the specs and regulation needs and that type of thing. So there should be easier cheaper homes to build. That's the first thing. Here's the big question is, is what actually is the pathway now for young people to get ahead? Like if you acknowledge that the market isn't going to drop, so the prices aren't going to come down, if you have now taken CGT rules away that disincentivise them to try and invest their way to a deposit, and if they don't have any family line wealth to tap into, what is the path ahead for those people? It's, I wonder if, you know, one of the reasons, one of the reasons that the Costello changes in '99 with the couple of game tax was to make us internationally competitive because as a taxation system, Australia is not internationally competitive. You know, you go to our neighbours with Singapore, you can even go to China, you can go to the US, even our neighbours over the ditch. They have much more enticing tax system to invite investment into our country. And I just wonder if it's made Australia less competitive because if you were, you know, this startup, you know, talk of changing around the fringes to incentivise those. But for people who are like, you only have to go to the UK, there are wealthy people in droves leaving that country, leaving that, leaving England, and going to other places under the guys of Go where you treated best. So to think that, to think that taxing wealthy people, you know, you've got to tax the, they just, like, go back to what Kerry Packer said back in the, was at the 80s when he said, "If you don't do everything, you need to do to minimise your tax, you're going to get a good grip." That's what wealthy people do. Winners always win, so they find ways around it. So it's not impacting the wealthy people. No, it's impacting the people who can't afford to be impacted the most. Yeah, and so picking up on, you know, a game when they ask me, "Well, what should we have done?" Well, we would have had a tapered system around capital gains tax. That's absolutely true. So fix the red tape and the bureaucracy in terms of getting supply in shovel-ready areas, so you're still moving that. But you've got to still keep the incentive. If the incentive's not there for the investor to come in, guess who has to build it? The government. Now, what we know of this Labor government, and what we know of, you know, the spin machine that is the politics in this, they will be talking up all of the increases in approvals and those types of things because there will be a spike like, you know, again, you show me the incentive and I'll show you the behaviour. So it will be our job, you know, in terms of warning people about the risks of investing in you. And we know through our data, and there will be other data coming out from, obviously, a lot of other people who played in the space have had conversations with several of them. That in the data, it suggests that new builds perform at around 1.5 to 2% less return in, say, a typical 10-year period. So that tells you that, you know, the reason why you invest in existing is because you get a better return. And that sort brings back to people to this question. This question is still going to be the same question. So, PIPA invests a sentiment survey, and I'll be putting this in the presentation that I deliver as well. But I analysed the 2016, the 2019, I think it was the 2022 or 23, and then the 2025 Investors sentiment survey for the simple question in terms of in investing in property, what are you expecting? You're expecting a capital growth return number one. Number two is long-term passive income. Number three was short-term growth. Number four was short-term yield. And number five, like the lowest of the five, tax benefit. Right, so people understand that. Now, the question is going to be, you know, in what markets will capital growth be impacted. And that's what I'll be prosecuting in my webinar that will be coming up because the reality is, in a very simple sense, that if you show me a very, very strong, massive economy, I'll show you very, very expensive land. And people want to live in that city or that world, that's what they've got to bring to the table. And they get to bring that to the table because they earn high income. So, that's just a little teaser in terms of what that looks like. But that's what we're dealing with here. And so, it is going to be, you know, you could argue that the Labor and the Greens, over the last four or five years, have won the narrative around greedy property investors. Right, they've pitched a narrative and a storyline that, to your point, Bryce has fed this belief from, you know, those people that they've been locked out of the property market because of these greedy property investors. And the reality is going to be that that's not the truth in terms of what's happening in the marketplace. Yes, there has been speculation. By certain property investors. And they've spoiled it forever on. You know, we were on, you know, the conditions were favourable, but it's a bit like sort of going to a dam and instead of catching a cup of fish that you need to feed yourself on and leave the rest of the fish, you know, like good people do, you know, for tomorrow. They went in there and they bought all the fish, they ripped them out, and now there's no fish. And so, you know, we've had to change the rules off the back of that. And I think that's an important message to sort of say, okay, the rules are changing, but what still remains true in terms of short-term versus long-term? I haven't spoken too much politically over the life of this podcast personally, but I think it's kind of a turning point for labour. You only have to look on the weekend to see the shift towards one nation. And it doesn't matter what you think about that. Just the electorate, like we've gone from, you know, I've talked to you this before, we've gone from keynote after keynote after keynote with our good friend, Bernard Soule. And he talked about how there's a major shift away from the two major political parties. Yes. And the labour party have operated with enormous swagger in the fact that they've got 94 seats and their opposition is on the back foot. But I don't think it's a conversation about which of the two major parties anymore. I think it's the beginning of the decline where more of the independence, more of the poll enhanced and more of the seats will be decided at the next election. It'll take some time, but whether you love poll enhanced and whether you love Donald Trump or whether you hate them, you cannot accuse them of not being authentic. And I think the electorate is attracted towards that authenticity. And younger people will soon find out that, you know, again, there's cause for celebration at a headline level today. Yeah. But once they realise all the things that we've just spoken about harder to get in, there's the game's been played. I can't do rent-vesting. I can't do ETFs. My rents have gone up. All of a sudden they'll get disillusioned. And they'll gravitate towards the person who's been more authentic. Make no mistake. And I mentioned this on the important videos that I did earlier as the chair of picker in February when we knew that the rumours were getting stronger around changes in the year and capital gains tax. Political parties do everything they can to stay in power. So that is the currency. That is the currency. And for every good reason, Bruce, because at the end of the day they honestly believe that they are doing the right thing by the nation. You know, they think that helping the most needy and potentially having middle-class welfare on it is the right thing for the country. The challenge has been that a lot of the people that are making decisions have never taken the risk that you and I have. Of course not. They've career politicians. They've never employed people. That's important. I know that Paulin Hansen's working at Fish and Efficient Chomp. These people have never worked. These are career politicians. I don't disagree with you there. But they look at these things. They look at the biggest issues. The biggest issues at the moment are housing and cost of living. Cost of living is going back to number one. And so this is going to be their big test. Their big test is going to be. They have told you that these policy settings will fix housing. Now the question, and you will judge them when you put your vote down. So you'll either be a, you know, if you're a swinging voter, you'll either be a one issue voter. So this could be the issue that you vote for or you'll be a broader voter in terms of based on the sum of the parts of what they're offering me. Like most of the till voters, they're one issue voters which is climate change as an example. So you've got to make a decision as a voter because your voice counts in terms of whether you're going to be a one issue voter or whether you're going to be a broader issue voter. Now, because the economy is being propped up with debt, and that debt is also led to a situation to a heap more. Yep. And we're going into, you know, and obviously keep blaming the war on a run. No, we're going to have a lot of money. had domestic inflation, right? Our interest rates were going up off the back of this government spending, make no mistake about it. When the government is the major buyer of anything, it's always inflationary. So it's not cost-to-living, it's cost-to-government. They are fueling the fire. Correct. But this is why the conversations at the pub and the conversations around the dinner table or our politics, they matter because Labor is trying to sell you a narrative that they are helping first-time buyers get into the market. That's the narrative they're trying to sell. So the proof is going to be in the pudding in terms of where the property prices in big cities go down or not. And if they do go down and if they do go down too much, which I don't expect them to do in the big cities, but I do expect to do in the regions, that's the remote regions, by the way, not commutables and satellites. So that still rings true in terms of our fundamentals. So but if that is true, those people in the regions, it's not just affecting or letting the first, all of those people who are investors. But what about the 70% of people who own the property in that market? Who had to compete with those investors who artificially inflated the price in those markets? They're the ones who are going to be hurt by this policy setting. So I do expect that potentially Labor will be on the nose in the regions in terms of the next election. And will it have fixed cost of living? Well, the best way to fix cost of living is to grow the economy. And to grow the economy, you need you to have to take less tax. And so are these settings growing the economy? Or have we got this classic case of too much regulation in our economy? And the economy can't rip because effectively again, it's supported by government spending as opposed to private spending. So they all matter in the grand scheme of what things and make no mistake. The biggest game in town for property prices in the future is the economy and the economic activity that's generated in that town, that regional city, all that mega city as part of that story. All right, so Ben, we've got some sentiment from our social media of what are the questions? Yeah. And we've got heaps and you are going to cover them in. Yeah, well, obviously the ones we don't get through today. And if you've got any more questions, keep sending them in because there will be lots of questions and I'm sure I mean, I know our business is getting lots of questions from our clients, our tax team are getting lots of questions in terms of how so it's everyone's just trying to, we've got a lot of known, knowns now, but we've still got a lot of known, knowns as part of this particular story, but it's getting clearer to us in terms of what we're going to be dealing with. And we've got to wait for the legislation to actually be done. There will be some, you know, some willing and dealing, I suspect on some of the legislation. But let's hit a couple of questions. Now we've got some questions here, Ben, and we'll go through a few of them now. But the first one that I think is there's a couple of, there's a few here that sort of give the sentiment of the style of question that we've been getting. But for the first one here is from MPBorg on our TPC Instagram for a person who has greater than three investment properties on a long hold plan. How are these changes affecting me? It depends on where you're located. Those properties are located. I mean, the reality is if you've got well-located properties that have a lot of people. A sheer bit of TPC philosophy here, Ben. Go TPC philosophy and outlier philosophy. So if it's a TPC philosophy, you'd hold them. Well, let's go through that negative gearing I've got. I also, and we'll be talking a bit more about the value of your offset account now. If you've been loading money up on offsets against your investment properties, that is that is gold because ultimately you'll be able to potentially move that money which will allow you to get more access to some of those negative gearing benefits. So those offsets become thing. But basic principle, negative gearing has been grandfathered. So that shouldn't affect you. You're still going to get that. And then ultimately your capital gains tax is going to be locked in from July of next year. And then you're going to move to an indexation model. So the gains that you've made if you choose to sell, that's the point. If you choose to sell, but if you don't sell, if you retire $3,000 a week, Ben, you CGT doesn't affect you because you're holding your assets. And the negative gearing doesn't affect you because you're locked and loaded. Correct. So again, it then becomes a bequeathment, discussion, and an inheritance discussion. And there's some estate planning that potentially goes with that as well. You know, your children could just inherit a house outright and that's their their principal home. So there's no tax viable at all. And the government said that they won't change inheritance tax or debt tax or messing with the family home. And so they can be trusted surely. Yes. Yes. Well, this is almost like a debt tax by still. But we won't go there. Hey, this one is from Daniel McCust go also on TVC and stuff. Does this make new builds a viable option? Great question. And we promise that we would circle back to this when you mentioned it earlier on today's app. It's nuanced. If that new build is in an established area and you are getting a portion of land and you're not paying a developer premium or a seller premium, you know, sorry, a buyer premium because I suspect that we and other buyers agents will be running the ruler over these types of properties in these particular developed suburban locations of big cities. And you know, if we can get the price right for a customer and we can obviously get a customer negative earring and capital gains opportunities. So I think that that will be an evolved enterprise that you've got to pay to play the game in the middle ring after these new changes. You are going to have to pay the brand new price because we're saying low density to your market potentially. So medium and high. So to answer Daniel's question, does this make new builds a viable option? Medium and high? No. No. No. Can we ask a man? How so lean out and they're out in the sticks? No. So therefore, let's rephrase this question. Does this make low density new builds a viable option? And our answer is probably and and you will have to pay a premium to play and you'll have to pay the new car tax to the the the the new car premium to play in this game. But in order for you to be able to qualify, get the negative earring benefits and importantly not lose sight of why you invest in the first place because growth is what you get out of the market rent. What's keeps you in the market? It's a growth asset that you're chasing. Yeah. Low density new builds have to be considered as a viable option. Have to be. And again, I suspect over the next 24, 36 months, we will see businesses promoting that type of opportunity to people and it's certainly from our point of view for our clients, we will we will obviously do some due diligence on whether that's a solution in a product that we might also consider for our clients into the future. But I got a question here. It's more just a sentiment read because it's almost just like rewind for the last 40 minutes, but this is from 2004, March on TBC and stuff. How does taking all our negative earring and reducing CGT discount help the younger generation they claim to be helping? They need this for rent besting and help getting into this very expensive market. So it's almost like rhetorical question, but that's a sentiment again. But let's talk about what how we've defined rent besting. Rent besting was a stolen concept by the hyper bowl buyers agents. We and Chris Gray and everyone who are the goats in terms of the OGs. Sorry. Self-climbing. Yeah, sorry. Go to the wrong. OGs. Apologies. Apologies. Wrong. Wrong acronym. Been a long night. Long day. I don't have much. Long was not LeBron. We're definitely not. I'll retract that statement. Sorry. Just I would just thank you. Rent besting was never buy. Never buy a principal home. That was the true where you get to rent, where you want to and you just trade up and buy it. And if you bought 10 or 15 negative ear properties, that's locked away. So you're okay. But what was stolen this was buyers agents, mortgage brokers who were telling clients, especially in Sydney markets and Melbourne markets, young people especially, let's go and trade your way into your $2 million property in Sydney. And let's do that through rent besting. Right. So just keep renting what you're doing, but we're going to go and leverage all your money into these regional towns. Yeah. Because that's the only way they could get in because that's where that you know, you show me the you show me the borrowing power. Number one driver. Yeah. Number one driver of short term property price growth as you'll learn in my webinar. And and that's what they did now there now there. They're meant to be trading out of those to get into this anymore. They don't want to live in the middle of nowhere. They don't want to live in Wangerada. Yeah. You know, or you know, a chukka or townsville or wherever. Right. They don't want to live there. So the reality is is now they've got to trade out. And to your point you're making before, that's that supply spike that we're going to see. And guess what? No buys. Yeah. So they're going to is that that's why I'm really concerned about how the operationalize the phrase when the tide goes out. You see who's being swimming naked. You're about to see what that actually means. Yes. Yes. You are. This one is from Shane Wilkinson. Yep. Are there any changes to negative gearing on a property purchase pre-2026, which I then knocked down and replaced with two dwellings post 2020 70s? There are different if these two dwellings are on a single block or sub divided into separate town's tolls. I think the important part of the question that I think it already needs to understand is replaced with two dwellings. You've got to add to supply. - Yes, so just for clarity for our audience, if you have an investment property that you knock down and turn it into one investment property, that does not add to supply. They're for under what was handed down last night, that doesn't qualify, but if you knock it down and turn it into two or more, by definition you are adding to supply, therefore qualifying. - So reward for the capital that funds new supply, which was in the Treasury notes there as well. So new build status. - All right, we'll try and find one more Ben here that will help. Will my existing property's been grandfathered for both negative earring and CGT? Yes, for negative earring, no, for CGT. And importantly, and we touched it up before, but the quarantining that you did have, pre-85 is no longer from the first of July, 2027, your quarantining will end, and then you will move into, from the valuation at that point going forward until you have a capital gains tax event, you will be subject to capital gains tax. That's a big job for those people who prior to kidding, bring it in 85, they had this quarantining that they would have assumed, would have lasted forever. - So I mean, obviously they've locked in all of those gains to this point, but the question will be, with rising interest rates, sentiment and expectation in the negative space now, that everyone will probably be racing to trying at a valuation today if it's a falling market. But unfortunately, like, what we don't know, the known unknown here is, when does that valuation have to get done? - Yeah. - Because if I'm in a regional town, I'll probably want to value it today, because that's gonna drop off at least double digits in my mind, right? And so, but I'm like, oh damn it, because it's going down and what can you use? I mean, can you use an AVM tool? - Yeah, that's about to say, what are you gonna be shopping around to the different AVM tools to see if you can get-- - Or you're gonna get AI to give you a-- - Give you the value of all of that. - Because how are they gonna keep up in the volume that's, excuse me, that's gonna be required on the amount of dwellings across the country? - Yeah, so what, yeah, you know, you'll be able to use your rates notice, but then it's like, well, that'll be a low ball. So you won't be able to use that. So, and then you're gonna be paying a value, where to go and value it, and you're gonna be, I love it, I'd like a favorable valuation. I mean, this is what Treasury were debating before, when they were saying, oh, we needed some time to do that, but you're still putting a line in the sand, right? And unfortunately, it's gonna be, if it's a self-decloration, what are they gonna do there? Like, oh yeah, no, I've floated up. It's as dumb as the, you know, the 296 ruling around unrealized guys. We're in that sort of same space, so that's gonna be-- - Wow, that's in the consequence. - All right, this last one, if you're already in an investment property, an owner, sorry, if you're already own an own occupied property, and wanna transition it to an investment property later, can that be negative we'd give? That's interesting, because the definition says, for properties held, it doesn't say for properties that are currently being used as an investment property. - So my expectation is a yes on that. So I do expect that that will be one of the loop holes. Well, not so much a loop hole, but I mean, the six year rule, if I do have to move for work or whatever, and I then rent it out, and I still got a debt against that property, then that is technically deductible. So I would suspect that they would keep that going, because again, if people have to move for work, it wouldn't necessarily be in the spirit of what you're trying to do. So no, if you own the property, you've got that opportunity to negative view. - All right, Ben, so we've got to the point of the podcast. So what, what do we do now? So what's the message that we wanna send to both clients and for our listener base on what do you do now? - Well, I think it is about don't overreact until we know what the legislation will show. I think we're pretty confident in terms of where it will land. So you're going to need to seek some advice potentially, get an update potentially in the situation, but if you've got a clear plan, and that plan was to, you know, by-hole, I wouldn't necessarily be changing that in a general sense, but I'd probably be wanting to check in at some point in terms of, remember, we've now elevated our location, does 90% of that heavy lifting. So I would be wanna have a look at where that location is. And yeah, I mean, what has also run true on this is, for now, the principal place of resident is Sacrescent. It is the most. - It's the greatest gift in the tax code. - It is the greatest gift. It is like the tax advantages you get on a principal place of residence. So play that out. You know, we're talking about investment grade versus investment stock. Investment grade is what owner occupies want to buy and in the locations that they want to buy them. And now there's gonna be pent up to my hand by people who want to buy in those locations because they will potentially add value in those locations to the existing land that they have there because it's capital gains tax-free. So that in my mind put more pressure on that prime land than what it does in potentially land that we refer to in our latest book as entry level. So in terms of that. So yeah, I would be thinking about that more intently because if I'm thinking about will capital growth continue on land over time, unless the economy breaks down in the area that you live in, then you will continue to see land appreciation. But it definitely, there's definitely maybe two or three tier markets that will start to evolve themselves as we watch the human behavior play out. - But I also think that planning is more important than ever now. Because you got to be able to model the numbers and what will impact some people will be a different impact to others, whether you're self-employed and you've got flexibility around how you're in your income and distributed versus if you're employed and work with someone else and have limited ability around that. What sort of borrowing capacity impact that's gonna have on you, what your time horizon is. Because I think that history doesn't repeat itself, people repeat history. So it's probably on, like history says that change the rules in '85 came back in '87 with incentives. So we've obviously got to go through a couple of years of whatever plays out. You and I have a lens on how we think that'll play out. The reality will be the teacher here. But essentially what you will find is that treating investors like they have no discernment around what particular asset they will buy. It's just fraught with hubris. Like they will leave. The ones who exist will have a smaller pool. There'll be more demand. They will increase their costs. And unfortunately, what will happen is the catalyst for the rent increase was the decision that happened on budget night. But the person who will be still held accountable is the greedy landlord. Who the only way that they can, they from budget night onwards, the only way they can afford it without the tax incentive help is to actually get more out of the market to fund the costs otherwise they won't do it. - No, so commercial property will start to get a little more oxygen. And then entities will also start to get a little more oxygen. So self-managed super funds. There's going to be a lot of sprucing around companies. - Companies. - So those three things are still the only thing. We already know that labor has started to flag changes to self-managed super fund lending, residential property purchases. So they're just collapsing, like what they've done for rental. They're just collapsing all of that. They're manipulating the market so much. This is why the economy is stuffed under a labor government. Usually it's because second and third terms of labor governments, you always get high, you always get high a debt, and you get a falling economy. Because they just want to spend so much and help so many people that they don't understand the one job that they need to do is get out of the way the economy and let it cook. And you know, it's part of that. So I think from that point of view, that's what we're going to see. - Not about someone who wasn't going to talk politically today, it's not about you. - Wow, but you know, you led me into it. (laughing) I sort of had to exercise my demons. - My fault. - But we did propose you specifically in a great length proposed an alternate. There was an alternate path. - Yeah, there was definitely all the path. - There was phasing capital gains tax rates up for people and reward people who stayed in for the long term. - Take the speculations out. - You'd always set around two or three investment properties and incentives after that. You're always in favor. I'd like, you've never heard from our mouth, so you're going to get 100 properties. - No, take the speculators out. And that would fix some of the affordability problems in the regions. - Right. - And allow middle Australia to get two or three investment properties and then create disincentives for negative giving after that. Two or three in concert with your super. - Yeah. - How old for the leading's long ear? That's financial security right there. Well, that doesn't change. But it's now you're going to have to put a little bit more in in terms of to hold it. Like what we say, but you'll still get your capital growth. - Yeah, hard now is easy later. - Yeah. - A little bit harder now still means easier later. - Agreed. - So. - Well mate, wait on that. - No, I think that you summarise that beautiful. - No, we're good. So all right, well, now just before we do go mate, what have you been up to? We haven't, you know, obviously you've been away for a couple of months. What's been happening? Well, you and I have had this conversation. You're coming at the investor market through PICAR. You've previously had the role for PIPAR. But the buyer's agent industry is, I think, had something to. Cowboy country. Yeah, to blame here, right? So Veronica reached out to me during the sabbatical and said, "Why don't we try and provide some leadership here for the buyer's agent industry?" So. Yeah, we're just. Yeah, we're putting together a bit of a program to help the buyer's agents. Actually, there's a lot of buyer's agents that are in the market who actually don't know what it looks like to run a buyer's agency business where you are more than just marketing. Yeah. How to execute. Yeah. How to represent your buyer. How to run a profitable business. How to do all these things that come with being a buyer's agent in a sustainable market. So, yeah, we'll be out on that. We'll be out on that. When it's something less. So maybe I can come back on the couch and talk about that. But ultimately, the intention is to provide that leadership so that you're doing it from PICAR. We're doing it from the buyer's agency. PIPAR is doing it from the industry and hopefully we're all sort of colluding as the OGs or in your words the GOATs. I won't be back down with that. My account is wrong after no sleep. We're only serious. We're only serious. We're only playing with you. But some of us, OGs, if we can collectively sort of triangulate and help provide a market that's sustainable for 20 years, not for. I am concerned that some of the lack of humility, just the total and utter lack of humility of some of the operators that have. In part, it's up to us at a significant level. It's just. It's just hasn't helped in any way and it's helped them enormously. And what we do know is that people who run businesses and have an advantage over people that are employed by someone else. And so it's easier for people who run a business to go out there and lack humility around some of the things that they're doing within their business within our industry. And so we're trying to. Well, you know, my other criticism, you know, if I was pointing and looking at them, I'm basically. I've got no financial services knowledge, right? Like, you know, what's the investment philosophy? If the investment philosophy is just trade and just push values higher and artificially. That's not an investment philosophy. Like, what's your principles around goals, objectives, risk profiles, you know, and what is the most optimized investment to make me do? Like, all of that stuff just, unfortunately, for this generation of. They haven't been trained or explained. We should never weaponize the roof over our heads as purely an investment being. Whatever. It's primary function is always to act as shelter and we should protect that. Yes. I know we're a line for our audience. We should protect the sacristank nature of the safety and security that people have with the roof over the head. But there are some people in the market and I'm talking to Aron, it's not to you. There are some people in our market who just don't want to own their own home, their transitions. There's a ton of reasons why they're going to be renters. So it makes sense to give those who are aspiring the opportunity to supply those. But once it becomes. Once it becomes. We've lost sight of providing for the renters. We've lost sight of the fact that it's a roof over our head and it just becomes a wealth creation vehicle for wealth creation. So you can see why you have reactions on budget night like what we've got here. So if it doesn't provide a social good, we'll lose our social losses. Effectively what's been happening over this time. So we still love the idea of Australians owning their own home. 100%. Some people are choosing not to, but if they're told that you don't, you just go on "Bill Wealthen" you know you sit in front of your foraries and it's all that "Hoot, my God, I can't stand that stuff." And it's all of those influences that I've obviously that you and I take on in terms of that story. Well they should hopefully. They won't. Part of what happened is. There's no philosophy, no investment philosophy that they teach their client about risk and also about losing money. Because at the end of the day, if those regional markets collapse and those people have got negative equity, guess what those buyers agents are going to do? They're just going to turn the sign off and we've seen it with the other spookers before when they sold all those house and land packages and off the plant apartments and those values collapsed. They just shut up shop. They just went missing. And so you couldn't get you know remediation in terms of "sue the more anything like that" because they just shut the business up and ran off. And so what's going to happen here if it is as bad in some of those regional areas as it could get. And that's all about who believes the story or not because if everyone believes that there's going to be a run on the market, there will be a run on the market. Make no mistake because they're so shallow, then that's where they're going to. Who do they blame? Although they blame the buyer. They've gone underground, they've shut their business up. So then they blame the mortgage broker and the mortgage broker because they were referred to. So although they've got an asset, they've got something to come after. So Phil Taren and I were talking about this just the other day to sort of say, if this blows up in those regional areas, the consumers are going to want to blame someone and try and get remedied. And so that will open up the idea of these cowboys and the property investment advice and the investment advice they were giving around trust. And that could turn into an inquiry and hopefully some new regulation if it's as bad as what it might get. Well you and I, this cup of things, I'm proud of the fact that in our timeline of our journey been, we've seen off a lot of the sprux as they had big names at the time. And then they've gone. But that provides. So that's nice to be around as the OGs for that. But I guess the part that's really painful is we've looked clients who, not through us, but who have come to us to help them fix bad property investment advice. We've looked them in the eye and seen the pain, that negative equity and the lack of hope for what the light at the end of the tunnel looks like. I've got to tell you, for those listening who have not had ever had that context, it is excruciating. We've had to see nurses have to go work in regional towns and 14 years of being in negative equity just to get back on their feet. Just because of ground zero. For those regional markets that they've bought in when they collapse the last time. So it is a horrendous situation. And look, we don't normally say for anyone out there, but if you want a second opinion in terms of what your situation is, reach out to us and empower us. Reach out to us or someone who's in the OG community who have been consistent, clearly we'd love you to come and see us. Just talk to the people who have been consistent in their message over a long period of time. We've seen a lot of these cycles and a lot of these sort of fluctuations. That's who you want to talk to. I'm going to be releasing a lot of data on regional markets. So you're going to see, I've already started releasing some of the start of it. So we've called it that it's going to be problematic. And if that continues to run up, there will be obviously further challenges in those areas. So, yep, we'll have more to say about that in upcoming episodes. So let's wrap it up. Obviously we're not one and done here next week. We'll have the Chief Economist, David Robinson from Bendigo and Adelaide Bank. Evan Lucas will be joining us as well. We will take a broader dive into the economics of what's it going to mean for the economy, what's it going to mean for jobs and how it looks more broadly. So we'll get their independent opinions on that. We also have our 600 episode coming up, which I'm pleased to announce we've got John McGraw on the 600 episode. Oh, good. One of Australia. Now he's a goat on Australia's graduate. In the real estate market. And we'll try to get him on for years. So it's a nice little celebration for our 600th. And of course, we'll have Julia Hartman back on in the lead up to the tax season, but also to get her opinions and views in terms of the economy. And we'll have a lot of questions and views in terms of what's happening around the tax policies around as well. So we will continue to evolve this conversation. We'll continue to see where the trends are going. But yeah, don't do anything rash just yet until you sort of know the playing field. Stay close to the data. We'll teach you how to look at that. And hopefully you'll be able to navigate through this. And for a certain time for the next few months, and then hopefully after that, you'll go, the dust is settled. I know where I stand and I can pursue what my ultimate goal is, which is financial transformation towards, you know, lifestyle by design. And just a final shout out for those people who want to register for the webinar, the property catch.com.au/register. Now you'll find the link there to get in the wait list for that webinar coming up. May turn. Thank you for having me, mate. I'm Hushtake Flag Mental. Flag Mental. Thanks for inviting me back. It's for such a meaningful period in the history of investment. in property, I think it makes sense that you and I got to recruit again. Great, thanks mate. Okay, until next week everyone remember, knowledge is empowering but only if you act on it so let's get some knowledge people, five and a half. Hey folks, opt to hear your smart money sidekick inside more. Just one quick thing before we sign off. If you're new to the property catch community, welcome. One quick tip to help you get the most value from the show. Our first 20 episodes cover the foundations we build on every week. And yes, listening on one and a half speed is totally acceptable. If you're short on time, download our free binge guide. It distills those episodes into one easy read with heaps of visual diagrams. Alongside free tools inside more, you're all in one financial home to help you organise your money and plan your next best move. Check out all the links in our show description. And just a quick reminder before you go, anything we cover on this podcast is general in nature. It's not considered to be financial advice and we certainly recommend that you seek out professional advice before making any financial decisions. Once again, everything mentioned is linked in the show description. Ready when you are. Catch you next week.

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. The Australian federal budget introduced major property tax changes, including limiting negative gearing to new builds and abolishing the 50% capital gains tax discount, replaced with cost-based indexation.
  2. Existing properties purchased before May 12, 2026, are grandfathered under old rules; new investments face less favorable tax treatment.
  3. The changes are politically motivated to appeal to younger voters but may lead to reduced rental supply, higher rents, and short-lived benefits for first-home buyers.
  4. Hosts emphasize that location now does 90% of the heavy lifting for property investment, up from 80%, under the new regime.
  5. They warn that investors in regional markets who engaged in speculative trading may face risks, while buy-and-hold investors in strong locations remain relatively unaffected.

Summary:

The podcast hosts discuss the Australian federal budget's property tax reforms, which they describe as the most significant in 15 years. Key changes include limiting negative gearing to new builds and replacing the 50% capital gains tax discount with cost-based indexation, effective from May 12, 2026. Existing properties are grandfathered, but new investments face less favorable tax treatment.

The hosts criticize the budget as politically motivated, aimed at winning younger voters, but argue it will not improve housing affordability. They predict reduced rental supply in desirable areas near schools and hospitals, leading to higher rents, which will hurt first-home buyers trying to save deposits. The hosts stress that location is now even more critical, doing 90% of the heavy lifting for property investment.

They caution against speculative trading in regional markets, where investors may face losses, while buy-and-hold strategies in strong locations remain viable. An upcoming webinar will provide deeper analysis on market dynamics and investment strategies under the new rules.

FAQs

Negative gearing changes apply from May 12, 2026, 7:30 PM AEST, with a 12-month transition period. Existing properties before that date are grandfathered, but new investments in established properties lose negative gearing benefits.

The 50% CGT discount has been abolished and replaced with cost-based indexation. Existing properties before May 12, 2026, are grandfathered, with a valuation on June 30 or July 1, 2027, locking in the 50% discount for that portion.

Limiting negative gearing to new builds may reduce rental supply in established areas near hospitals, schools, and transport. Investors may sell or charge higher rents to compensate for lost tax relief, potentially increasing rents for tenants.

Investors in regional areas with lower land-to-asset ratios are especially exposed, as they lack development pipelines. First-home buyers may face higher rents and reduced access to rent-vesting strategies.

Existing investors with grandfathered properties in good locations should consider buy-and-hold strategies, as the changes don't alter that approach. A valuation on July 1, 2027, helps lock in benefits.

Location now does 90% of the heavy lifting, up from 80%, due to the new tax rules. Owner-occupier appeal, economic activity, and human behavior are critical factors for success.

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