5 Players Your Leaguemates Are Getting TOTALLY WRONG in Fantasy Football in 2026!
23m 55s
In this solo fantasy football show, Graham Barfield highlights five players he believes are mispriced in drafts, starting with quarterback Brock Purdy. Purdy, drafted as QB12, has consistently outperformed his ADP, ranking QB6 in fantasy points per game over the last three seasons, and his efficiency—leading quarterbacks in yards per attempt and high touchdown rates—makes him a top target for those punting the position. Next, Michael Pittman is presented as a steal at WR45; his fit with Aaron Rodgers' quick, timing-based passing game, combined with his top-30 finishes in three of four seasons, gives him top-24 upside, especially as he outperforms DK Metcalf in projected targets. Mark Andrews is another value at TE11; with key competitors gone, he could regain a full-time role and top-five production, supported by elite expected touchdown metrics that trail only George Kittle. Tank Bigsby is highlighted as a high-upside running back in Jacksonville, where his efficiency metrics and potential role in Liam Cohen's screen-heavy offense could lead to a breakout, though his range of outcomes is wide. Finally, David Montgomery is undervalued in Houston, where he brings proven touchdown ability and should dominate carries, despite concerns about competition and a downgraded offensive line. Barfield concludes all five players offer significant value relative to their ADPs.
Fantasy football daily is back and we are doing a solo show today talking about five players your league mates have Wrong I'm Graham Barfield. I am a lead analyst and the CFO here at fantasy points I'll be walking through some players that your limit league mates have completely Miss priced Before you listen to this video make sure you subscribe to the channel hit the notification bell and leave a like down below It really does help us out quite a bit if you agree or disagree with any of the analysis here on this show Leave us a comment I love to hear from you guys down below Let's get started with a quarterback. I cannot stop drafting I think if anybody has listened to any of our pods or any of our videos this off season They know how high I am on this player and how high I am on this strategy Lay around quarterback is awesome this year guys. I think in previous years I think we've been a little more willing to pay up at the position but not this year I am wanting to punt as much as I can with quarterback and it kind of starts honestly with this player Brock party is just massively underpriced we do this every single year You can just like rinse and repeat it. He's the QB 12 and ADP and he's gonna house He's gonna massively outscore that now perform his ADP once again over the last Three seasons Brock party is QB 6 in fantasy points per game He's been a an awesome bastion of efficient efficiency over the last three seasons He leads all quarterbacks in yards per pass attempt He's had over a 7% touchdown rate and three out of his last four seasons and now he gets one of the touchdown Makers of modern NFL and Mike Evans added to this roster Evans a future how a favor I'm all in on Brock party at this QB 12 ADP I think he has a similar type of upside argument as Joe burrow I think you you draft these pocket quarterbacks for their touchdown efficiency Maximizing their touchdown output Brock party at the highest end of his range of outcomes this year He could certainly throw for 40 touchdowns on he was on pace for nearly 40 touchdowns last season He only played in nine games due to injury, but he was excellent when he was on the field and every year We do this we want to draft you know Shanahan quarterbacks we want to draft the Shanahan style offense of quarterbacks Well, why not just actually draft the guy attached to just Shanahan himself Brock party is our QB 10 in season long projections here at fantasy points We are all in on party again this season and I think in Managed leagues and best ball leagues and two quarterback leagues He is just way underpriced for his ceiling There is a lot of avenues for Brock party to work out and it's it's efficiency and a volume standpoint for for pretty Niners have been shifting a little more balance going away from the run heavy Approach that Shanahan had in his early play call in career I am just all over Brock party this season He is my favorite quarterback to draft at cost and he's someone that I'm going to prop up Significantly in my upcoming super flex article on fantasy points dot com Well pivot over to receiver here that I think everybody is completely misprice not only do I think Michael Pitman is the best One of the best values on the board. I think he straight up out scores DK Matt calf this season. I think he Basically he fits with Aaron Rogers in the way Aaron Rogers plays football at this point in his career A lot of just quick timing rhythm throws Aaron Rogers had one of the fastest time to throw here at fantasy points data We time every throw Rogers had one of the quickest last season his average depth of target really sunk compared to where he was early in his career It's not that Rogers can't push the ball down the field. It's just that this is this is kind of where he's at He's a little more diminished as a passer in my opinion Michael Pitman Absolutely fits the style of passer Aaron Rogers is at this point in his career Pitman has finished as a top 30 receiver and fantasy football and Three out of the last four seasons He was wide receiver 30 last year by points per game in a back injury in 2024 that really limited him so we have to give him a little bit of an injury discount there But the two prior years he was wide receiver 18 and wide receiver 21 and fantasy points per game He's going to you know perfectly mesh with DK met calf Met calf is kind of the go and slant guy and While you know met calf kind of dicks takes and draws a lot of coverage is the vertical threat in this offense Pitman is going to absolutely dominate on in breaking routes hitches and crossers and He's sneakily one of the best separators and among receivers He has a 72nd to 73rd percentile separation score on all of those route types on in breakers hitches and crossers And those route types make up nearly 60% of his entire profile last season Pitman is consistently going behind DK met calf in most drafts And I think that's just a mistake. I think it's straight up a mistake here at fantasy points We have these two players pretty closely projected we we have pitman ahead of DK met calf wide receiver 32 for Michael pitman and But in terms of just total target volume pitman is top 20 among receivers in our projected targets I think he's a good source of One volume, you know, we're all looking for volume and fantasy football that's targets are the lifeblood of fantasy points at receiver In pitman wide receiver 45 and 80p is just way too cheap It's like a borderline disrespectful price for him. I straight up prefer him over other veterans like Chris Godwin Jordan Addison Wondale Robinson Michael Wilson and Cortland Sutton I think pitman is one of the The best values on the board and I think he makes sense in all team builds He makes sense where you go running back heavy Maybe you're trying to make up a little bit receiver production late in your draft He also makes sense and receiver heavy builds where you have to play a bunch of flex flex spots I think he's just a locked in wide receiver three who has top 24 Upside in his range of outcomes and again, you can draft him consistently wide receiver 40 wide receiver 45 across all platforms in fantasy football right now Another player that I think is just completely mispriced and maybe we haven't totally as a fantasy community like come around to what his changing You know outlook is in this offense. It's Mark Andrews a player that has been Consistently a top five top six fantasy tight end in his career up until the last two seasons There are a number of factors that are Super bullish for Mark Andrews this season Mainly the first one that I keep coming back to is that he's not going to be a full-time player anymore over the last two seasons He's struggled to you know basically run a full-time route share He was tied in 22 and Rouch here over the last two seasons and This is a player who could absolutely get back to where he was in his glory days in 21 22 and 23 when he was leading all players in Rout participation rate Isaiah likely is gone Charlie Kohler is gone They have no one else to really compete for these routes with Mark Andrews So we have you know increased playing time on the table for Andrews this season and he's always been one of the more prolific touchdown scores and fantasy football in his career and even with a part-time role over the last two seasons He's tied in two in our expected touchdown metric here at fantasy points data We look at every angle for our expected fantasy points metrics and expected touchdowns is one of them at tight end Really past tight end 10 guys like we're kind of chasing touchdown upside it makes no sense that Andrews is going tight in 11 I have him much higher. I have him closer to tight end and tied in seven in my personal rankings His expected touchdown metrics guys of the last two seasons trails only George Kettle George Kettle has been a you know cut touchdown king At times in his career. He's he's been excellent over the last two seasons, but and Mark Andrews is completely mispriced I think the only downside risk is that he's getting up their an age He maybe has lost a step in terms of his separation ability, but all of that is more than priced in If you are punting tight end this season and you want to go for you know a player who has not only just like usable You know potential every single week. It has true top five upside Mark Andrews has been somebody that I have been slamming in all of my drafts and somebody that I'm going to make a big part of my draft Plan in all of my manage leagues this year tight end 11 ADP is just way too cheap for this player He's only really competing for targets right now with Zay flowers flower should certainly lead this team in targets He pushed for a 28% target share last season, but I'm just looking at this as like This is going to be a pretty consolidated offense with Zay and Mark Andrews is the clear lead targets The final factor here's Lamar Jackson's healthy guys Lamar was Completely beat up last season at a hamstring injury Came back was not himself He's still had a ridiculous 7% passing touchdown rate Lamar Jackson in his entire career has a Equally almost ridiculous 6 and a half percent touchdown rate He's a player that's capable of having a season where he spikes to nine or eight and a half nine percent in terms of his touchdown percentage There's just massive Appeal with Mark Andrews. So yeah, maybe sure he has lost a step. Yeah, maybe sure he'll never get back to that 21 and 22 type form But that's all baked into this price. I think he has top eight upside in his range of outcomes and at the highest end of his apex He could certainly get back to top five scoring and again, you're getting this player Consistently and in you know one tight in leagues or in PPR leagues right around 110 115 overall in ADP and even on FFPC and tight in premium I think he makes a ton of sense over there as well as a cheaper, you know player who has legitimate top 10 fantasy football
We'll get into the top two players that your leaguemates have wrong this coming season and anybody who is Not believing that Bayesville Tudon isn't a great player and has huge upside is just dead wrong Bayesville Tudon really popped in my yards created metric last season when he come in he came out of college out of Virginia Tech He was one of the clear Winners of that metric was third in the class in yards created per attempt last season He was sat behind Travis ATN as kind of a change of pace and like you know early down runner ETN had a nice season last year Tutton never really got the chance to break out but now this backfield could totally be his Underneath the hood, you know, Travis, ETN He's just never really been a player who's been super efficient on his career So we'll take that with a grain of salt, but Bayesville Tudon actually led this backfield in yards after contact per attempt He led this backfield in this tackles force per attempt Last season and he let it in success rate what that means to me is that you know on a small sample of you know Just 80 carries last season 80 or so carries He was very very efficient on his plays and you know, it's always it's troublesome We like it we can't just sit here and you know extrapolate out small sample success over you know What should be potentially 180 or 200 carries this season? But you know, I think with with Tudon we had enough last year in the small sample bag that proves that he could be a very very explosive player Liam Cohen His said this offseason a number of times that he was very impressed by Tutton's ability to create yards after contact Again, something that he did in college and he did Relatively well at least compared to Travis, ETN last year There is huge touchdown upside with this offense that I think that is baked into the price You're you're paying in most platforms. You're paying a fifth round 80 p Around rb 22 to rb 25 and 80 p But the jags closed out last season guys is one of the most prolific scoring offenses in football They finished the season six and points per game There's a chance here that Tutton like not only has Legitimately good touchdown upside even if he does split carries at the goal line with Chris Rodriguez But there's there's a chance here he gets pretty much all of the designed work in the passing game this coming season Tutton you know, we've seen this with Liam Cohen in the past when he was with the bucks He was excellent at designing up those screen targets to his running backs He did it last year at one of the highest rates in the NFL the 49ers and the jags were tied for top fifth in Design targets to their players in the screen game out of the backfield and yeah, okay Baby, Bishel Tutton's not Christian McCafferate. Let's let's not let's not paint that type of picture He's not like a prime Alvin Camara type pass catcher But he's more than capable and he's more than capable of creating a big play off the screens in that in that particular part of the Pass in game We saw that a little bit in the bills game as well He had just nine touches and nearly had a hundred yards from scrimmage and their loss in the in the postseason to the bills last year Bishel Tutton is one of my favorite players to draft and hero running back builds where You take a running back in the first two rounds. You have one awesome running back Let's say it's Jameer Gibbs Christian McCafferys sake one Barclay James Cook type level of runner You basically spend the next couple of rounds taking a Brock Bowers or a bunch of receivers that we love and that kind of rounds three through five pocket You come back and you get Bishel Tutton you compare him Fifth round Tutton six round Tutton with Chubah Hubbard in the seventh round Jalen Warren in the seventh round of play That you know is gonna be able to give you 10 11 12 PPR points if things don't work out with Tutton I fully fully admit that dude has one of the widest range of outcomes of any player on the board But I think your leaguemates when you're getting into your draft They're gonna kind of turn their nose up a little bit like oh you're taking a guy who's got no production He wasn't like maybe the most prolific in terms of his production as a rookie He wasn't maybe the most prolific in terms of construction and college This is a player who has immense upside and he really only has to beat out an early down grinder type in Chris Rodriguez Who is coming off of a foot injury? There is huge upside within this Jags offense that really took off at the end of last year And I think all of these players could end up being really underpriced at least a few of them are gonna be underpriced for your fantasy leagues And they're gonna really beat their ADP Tutton is my favorite bet All right, the last player your leaguemate has wrong all of your leaguemates are going to miss out on a player who I I think has massive bell cow upside in the Houston Texans offense is David Montgummery Montgummery is one of the most underrated players that's moving places and free agency this off season He obviously was stuck behind Jameer Gibbs for the last two seasons and particularly the last you know eight games of last year Basically didn't play Jameer Gibbs completely ethered him but David Montgummery man I mean, he's always been one of the best runners in football in terms of his efficiency. I think He's been very underrated in that regard. He's been underrated in terms of his mishakles forced But the big appeal I have with this offense is I think the Texans are an underrated team to draft this season I think this this defense is going to keep them in a lot of positive game scripts gonna give Montgummery a lot of positive game scripts where he has 15 16 17 18 carries and There's just significant touchdown upside in this offense Montgummery over the last three seasons is behind only Derek Henry In our expected touchdown metric here at fantasy points. Obviously a lot of that came attached to the Lions offense, but Montgummery is more than capable of hammering and a ton of touchdowns and even just last year when he was splitting carries which Jameer Gibbs the guy was RB 15 and the rate of carries he had inside of the five yard line at 62 percent Montgummery is capable of not only being the goal lineback and you know providing a little bit of a you know efficiency Maybe he's not the world's most explosive runner. I don't think he's gonna necessarily push for like a crazy You know 10 or 12 percent explosive runner-8 where he's ripping off a bunch of plays But he's always been pretty elusive and strong through contact This Texans offensive line is going to be completely revamped. I think it's certainly a downgrade from what he was you know playing behind with the Lions but Texans have revamped their offensive line CJ Stroud coming back uh fully healthy Nico Collins coming back fully healthy jaylen knoll and jayden higgins Coming into their second year. This offense has a chance to really take a leap The main thing I keep coming back to with Montgummery is the touchdown upside the Texans are implied to win nine and a half games this year by the Vegas win totals It's pretty freaking strong guys like it's right there with the Broncos and the chargers and the bears Cowboys is you know right there, you know among the best offenses top 15 offenses In football this season in terms of their win equity and as we know with running backs They're extremely game script dependent Montgomery is going to have some great game scripts where he has the potential to score multiple touchdowns in these games And then let's not forget he's also a pretty good receiver. I mean he has a season with 50 54 receptions on his docket uh, you know He hasn't had to play a ton in the passing games just because jameer Gibbs is so dynamic obviously in the past game But he's always been a pretty good receiver right around eight or nine yards per reception Woody marks guys just does not concern me there's been some reporting that Woody marks might split carries with with David Montgomery. I just don't buy it marks was completely outplayed by Nick chub who Was in the you know basically tail end of his career Not even the back nine. He was on the 18th hole of his career He's 30 years old and he bested Woody marks in every metric that we care about every efficiency metric last year that we care about yards after contact Miss tackles forest Yards per carry on man and got get blocking concepts He was Nick chub was was stuff did at a lower rate than Woody marks And he just did not have the same burst that we we've known from Nick chub Obviously he had two catastrophic injuries in his career that really kind of zapped his explosiveness at the end of his career This is no shaded-all Nick chub. I just don't think Woody marks was a particularly good prospect coming out of college He did not pop at all in yards created and Got how played by a 30 year old veteran in Nick chub last season I think there's a chance that marks plays on passing downs for sure But this should be David Montgomery's backfield in full Montgomery makes a lot of sense in all team builds. I think he makes sense as an An RB-2 where you take your first running back in the first two rounds You get a couple of receivers you get Montgomery in the fourth. I also think you know zero running back is falling out of vogue This year and this isn't like a true zero running back build You're kind of pushing your running backs even further down the board like into the fifth and sixth round to get your RB-1 or RB-2 Montgomery is going at the end of the fourth round middle of the fourth round and some sharp or four mats I think you also make sense in that kind of build too you you know start maybe receiver receiver get Josh Allen In the third round or maybe you get Brock Bowers in the second round and come back and build a nice little stable of running back Starting with David Montgomery in that fourth round. I am all in on Montgomery this season This has been five players your lead mates are completely wrong about where we're drafting all the Brock party we can get our hands on At QB12 and ADP Michael Pittman is going to outscore DK Metcalf this season and he's just way too cheap at wide receiver 45 We've always been big fans of mandrues mark Andrews here at fantasy points last season was the first year We were kind of out on him this year, but you know what? I'm bringing it back mark Andrews is going to be a top eight fantasy tight end this season You can draft him around tight and 11 or tight in 12 when we love these fourth and fifth round running backs between Basel tootons upside David Montgomery's floor and touchdown scoring ability
This is a great way to beat your leaguemates, beat ADP, and draft the best team possible. Until the next video, I'm Graham Barfield. Leave a comment down below if you agree or disagree with any of the analysis. Maybe you think I'm completely wrong that Bayeshell Tudon is a league winning type player this year. Maybe you're on Chris Rodriguez. Maybe you're on the passing game for the Jaguars. Leave a comment down below if you agree with any of the analysis.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
Brock Purdy is undervalued as QB12 in ADP; he has been QB6 in fantasy points per game over the last three seasons and now has Mike Evans to boost touchdown efficiency.
Michael Pittman is mispriced at WR45; he fits Aaron Rodgers' quick-timing style and is projected ahead of DK Metcalf in targets, with top-24 upside.
Mark Andrews is underpriced at TE11; with Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar gone, he could return to a full-time role and top-five tight end production, backed by strong expected touchdown metrics.
Tank Bigsby has breakout potential in Jacksonville; he led the backfield in efficiency metrics last season and could dominate carries and screen targets under Liam Cohen, despite a wide range of outcomes.
David Montgomery is undervalued in Houston; despite splitting with Jahmyr Gibbs, he has elite touchdown upside, a revamped offensive line, and should be the clear lead back over Dare Ogunbowale or any competition.
Summary:
In this solo fantasy football show, Graham Barfield highlights five players he believes are mispriced in drafts, starting with quarterback Brock Purdy. Purdy, drafted as QB12, has consistently outperformed his ADP, ranking QB6 in fantasy points per game over the last three seasons, and his efficiency—leading quarterbacks in yards per attempt and high touchdown rates—makes him a top target for those punting the position. Next, Michael Pittman is presented as a steal at WR45; his fit with Aaron Rodgers' quick, timing-based passing game, combined with his top-30 finishes in three of four seasons, gives him top-24 upside, especially as he outperforms DK Metcalf in projected targets.
Mark Andrews is another value at TE11; with key competitors gone, he could regain a full-time role and top-five production, supported by elite expected touchdown metrics that trail only George Kittle. Tank Bigsby is highlighted as a high-upside running back in Jacksonville, where his efficiency metrics and potential role in Liam Cohen's screen-heavy offense could lead to a breakout, though his range of outcomes is wide. Finally, David Montgomery is undervalued in Houston, where he brings proven touchdown ability and should dominate carries, despite concerns about competition and a downgraded offensive line.
Barfield concludes all five players offer significant value relative to their ADPs.
FAQs
Brock Purdy is ranked QB12 in ADP but has been QB6 in fantasy points per game over the last three seasons, with top efficiency metrics like yards per pass attempt. He now has Mike Evans to boost his touchdown upside, and our projections have him as QB10.
Michael Pittman is going as WR45 in ADP but is projected as WR32, and he fits Aaron Rodgers' quick, timing-based passing style. He's been a top-30 receiver in three of the last four seasons and should dominate on in-breaking routes, making him a locked-in WR3 with top-24 upside.
Mark Andrews is going as TE11, but he has top-five upside due to increased playing time with Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar gone. He ranks second in expected touchdowns among tight ends over the last two seasons, and his age-related decline is already priced in.
Tank Bigsby has immense upside as he led the Jaguars' backfield in yards after contact per attempt and success rate last season. With Travis Etienne's inefficiency and Liam Cohen's screen-heavy scheme, Bigsby could see 180-200 carries and significant touchdown opportunities, making him a great value at RB22-25 ADP.
David Montgomery has top-tier touchdown upside, ranking second in expected touchdowns over the last three seasons, and should see positive game scripts with the Texans' strong defense. He's a capable receiver and should dominate carries over a weak competitor in Cam Akers, making him a solid RB2 at his fourth-round ADP.
Brock Purdy leads all quarterbacks in yards per pass attempt and has had over a 7% touchdown rate in three of his last four seasons. His efficiency makes him a top-tier option, even as a pocket quarterback, with potential to throw for 40 touchdowns.
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